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Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts with proven skill

Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature.

Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.

Weather Action has audited accuracy, for example, the WeatherAction advance forecast of May 5 2009 predicted “Bay of Bengal land hit on May 24-26 2009” the  event was verified  by  Cyclone Alia in the Bay of Bengal May 25 2009. Please see the Short List table below for more details of successful predictions and notable major extreme events.

Download Excel table report

See below for full independently Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts March to Sept 2008 showing a success rate of 85% in forecasting of generally relatively unusual extreme events in narrow time windows.

Download pdf format report

See below the Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts for the period October 2008 to April 2009 and a cover letter from the Auditors re USA & Canada events

Download pdf format formal audit report
Download pdf format report

Skill and forecast scope has been maintained and advanced since then and reports are issued every month.

The success rate is similar in WeatherAction detailed long range forecasts down to time windows of a few days for Britain, Ireland & European countries.

The unique power of the forecasts has also been proven by the profits on Scientific Weather Bets with William Hill at odds and verification organized independently by the UK Met Office.  

In 4,000 Weather Test Bets over 12 years with William Hill, Weather Action forecasts made a profit of some 40% (£20,000).  The Odds were statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by William Hill by a standard 20%; the results were then provided by the Met Office for William Hill to settle each bet. Piers Corbyn was excluded by the bookies from such account betting in 2000.

Bets and notional bets can be used to estimate Forecasting Power which is the % profit (or negative for  losses) on stakes that would come from bets placed at fair odds.  For general long range forecasts for the three most extreme recent seasons, namely Summer 2007, Summer 2008 and Winter 2008-09 The Met Office long range forecast Power is minus 100% (ie Met Office long range forecasts failed in all three cases) and WeatherAction (Solar Weather Technique) scores about plus 500%.

Many companies and organizations have carried out their own assessments of WeatherAction forecasts and consequently renew their purchase of forecasts.

Report from a farmer:

Farmers need WeatherAction forecasts.

Notes on what ( 'S' - who will talk to other farmers) - a long standing farmer WeatherAction customer - said - and which was given to a meeting of North Devon Grassland society (farmers)  in  Barnstaple  on 15th Oct 2008  

S: "I have been with WeatherAction for ten years. Every farmer needs WeatherAction forecasts. they might think they don't but they do.  There are many practical examples of how I have saved money by applying WeatherAction forecasts: 

Selling Corn (Wheat) this year. Piers' forecast made it clear that the rain to come meant we had to harvest early or the potential milling wheat would be devalued into feed wheat. 

Hay: I could see from the forecast it was going to be tough. I have saved a lot on hay because of Piers' forecasts. I got a second cut by careful timing 

Fertiliser: Dry / Wet forecasts makes it clear if you need to buy and use 

Maize. The frosts forecast meant it should be planted late. Those who planted early lost out. 

Dairy: The cold spring forecast means that grass would be late so it would be worth spending on fertiliser. 

Planning. Use forecasters to book contractors and avoid hiring labour that has to stand idle because of adverse weather. 

BUY the forecasts for two years. They are a guide not gospel but and you will find you are lost without them. There is no-one else in the world who can do it.

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