Comments from Piers
WeatherAction

Going to parts other forecasters cannot reach!

Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR +44(0)207939 9946 From Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320  piers@weatheraction.com  www.weatheraction.com Twitter @Piers_Corbyn 

CO2 WARMIST SECT LIE MACHINE MOVES INTO TOP GEAR - See NEWS section Below

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important Weather & Climate, Model outputs & other sites
WeatherOnLine:  - ECMWF, GFS model movies &c (Don't take literally!) 
IceAgeNow  http://iceagenow.info/ - Superb exposes of CO2 delusions!
ClimateRealists (Twitter) https://twitter.com/ClimateRealists
1stHandWeather (USA+World https://twitter.com/1stHandWeather
Wunderground Tropical Cyclones http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
NationalHurricane Centre http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
BigJoeBastardi https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Top model watcher & critic

Latest Solar-Geomagetic activity data - SpaceWeather.com: 
USGS Earthquake Reports  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ (Warning: overly complicated and 'clever' if you just want simple information, since it was 'improved'. Useful summary links have been discontinued)

Sunspot numbers and Solar Activity
Last 6 cycles up to now (19-24 inc) http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/wolfmms.php
General SIDC (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center) Link 

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September 2013 has some exciting weather periods happening simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic with associated solar and earthquake (trial) expected events

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NEWS..........
Friday 13th September - Quick point as another R5 starts
-  Further considerations on next blog =>
CO2 WARMIST SECT LIE MACHINE MOVES INTO TOP GEAR
"Hottest Days in Some Parts of Europe Have Warmed Four Times More Than the Global Average since the 1950s" claim science deniers from The Grantham Institute (of CO2 religion) section based in The London School Of Comics
"This particular piece of science cretinism surpasses all before in absolute dishonesty and total arrogance in taking the public for stupid" says Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction long range forecasters. "As anyone aged over 65 who visited London or indeed the near Continent in the 1950s and early 1960s knows the reason why hot summer days were less hot then is because of the pall of grime and smoke which hung in the air from coal fires. When my brothers and parents and I visited my grandfather in those times it just took one day out in London for our gleaming white collars to turn black inside from the soot. Smogs were common and anyone who lives in a Council flat built in the 60's can see the now boarded up fire places and old ash-chutes which bear witness to the coal that was burned in vast quantities throughout the densely populated region of London, SouthEast England and the near Continent - the region identified by these charlatans as now showing "extra" summer day time warming"
"Yet the deluded fools and professional lairs of the CO2 warmist lobby tell us the cause of warmer days now was CO2-Climate Change. This is drivel beyond belief and if the scientific institutions of the UK have a shred of integrity left all these charlatans should be sacked and the money saved be used to bring honest science teachers back into schools and universities" 

12 Sept Solar Action 
Embedded image permalink     YES! Earth-Facing Coronal Hole (12th) on cue for the start of WeatherAction R5+ QV5 13th as blasts both sides of Atlantic get organized in line with WeatherAction forecasts. Storms get ready to attack Ireland & Britain and cold blast N/E USA lines up  and SpaceWeather link above.
  • Doubtless the CO2 warmists will claim these significant weather events coming are something to do with CO2. Does that apply to the Earth-Facing Coronal Hole etc now and on many previous WeatherAction predicted occasions? The self-serving CO2 sect is totally deluded and must be destroyed before it does any more damage to the world economy. 
12 Sept USA 
Heat in USA as in WeatherAction forecast is about to be replaced by a dramatic cold plunge in N/ NE also as we forecast. AccuW report below. 
Important WA forecast and Observation matches end August in WANews36 further below.

 
11 Sept GABRIELLE now Tropical Storm again
EXPECT MORE ACTION 13-16th - see WA TS/H Forecast below
and Humberto Hurricane via same link (View All H etc)

10 Sept Ex TS Gabrielle now getting more organised. "Our new WeatherAction Formation development window is coming 13-16th so ATS Formations risks then are ~95% and all standard Model projections risks should be modified upwards", says Piers - see Tropical Storm Watch below.

6/7/8 Sept.  Br+Ir Long range forecast spot-on for warmth then rain and much colder - see below

6/7/8 Sept ATS Gabrielle which originated in Line with WeatherAction new Atlantic Tropical Storm forecast / ex-Gabrielle (Now area 92) got better defined 7th in line with WeatherAction - expectation announced on 5/6th for 7th. (see Report from NHC and movie image below)

The previous "Top Red" - R5* & QV 5* periods (*Red5 and Quake-Volcano5) late August + Sept 1st were very successful in Br+Ir, Eu, USA and Solar-Geophysical (Quakes) (Trials) - from 30days ahead see
Twitpic of it:
QUADZAT! 4Fold Solar, Quake, ATS, Eu+USA Xtremes confirm WeatherAction http://bit.ly/18ljIXS <LAST DAY FAB DEAL


TROPICAL STORM WATCH
The latest movie of Area 92 which replaces Gabrielle shows continuing action.

Piers Corbyn (early 10 Sept). "Reports show The ex-Gabrielle is likely to return to a TS: 
"...This system has a high chance...70 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours...and a high chance... 80 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days." 
"I would say that the 5 day chance is 95% because our new 'WA2' ATS Formation and Rapid Development Time window comes 'ON' 13-16th. This will also enhance developments elsewhere in the wider ATS region - see our Full ATS forecast to Sept 30th below"
I put this COMM on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml 
READERS. Please pass on to ATS Community. 
NB The NOAA Comment site as given on Wunderground does not work as quoted  ( http://www.NWS.NOAA.Gov/survey/NWS-survey.Php?Code=etwo )although I think it is meant to lead to the link above which I used.
 
Piers Corbyn (early 9 Sept GMT, 8th EDT) commented:
"Tropical Cyclone initial formation developments took place in the region and when we forecast (full forecast below) - for Gabrielle - and the TS interestingly moved onto our Long Range forecast track. But for getting disorganised when it hit Peurto Rico Gabrielle might well have proceeded on our forecast track and hit ihe US East coast in the region we warned within a day or so of our prediction".


Origin of Gabrielle: 30th 00z / 29th 24z 
Tropical Storm potential development (96L on map) EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS in period (29-30th) and Latitude - 'East of Leeward Islands - both predicted by WeatherAction (see below) and now confirmed.
said on 30th 00z
"...Environmental conditions appear conducive for development and a tropical depression could form over the weekend....."
Piers Corbyn says "This is great confirmation so far of our TS/Hurricane formation forecast and note our SLAT(TS) expects standard Methods to UNDERESTIMATE developments during R5 and R4 periods. After all only a day ago standard models saw little prospects of this. Also note the current TS/TS potential map is unusually busy and new developments 97E and 98E also ramped up / appeared in our ~29-30th predicted period"
This is a twitpic - does not update

During 30th wind speeds around 94L increased
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type 
------------------------------------------------------------- 
00 GMT 08/30/13 14.5N 15.5W 20 1009 Invest 
18 GMT 08/30/13 13.6N 16.0W 25 1007 Invest 

31st and onwards Region 97L deemed higher risk of TS/H development than 96L

LATEST UPDATING IMAGES:
Of World Tropical Cyclone developments

5th Sept The Trop Depression reached Named Storm TS GABRIELLE status
(and back to TD when crossing Puerto Rico). Piers Comments below

Radar development of Gabrielle MOTION FLIC below 
(Now become Invest Region 92 above) -  
- from link which also leads to other discussion links+News:
NationalHurricane Centre http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml puts chance of now TD Gabrielle returning to TC as 20% in next 48hrs and 40% in next 5days. 
We expect R3s 7-8th & 9th will enhance this probability 

7th Sept ABOVE PREDICTION by WeatherAction CONFIRMED. 
NHC 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013 Says:
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. 
 HOWEVER... THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


WILL GABRIELLE FULFILL THE PROJECTION REPORTED 1st Sept by Joe Bastardi? - Remarkable model projections of a Hurricane land hit in WeatherAction forecast in region and timing! (5-8th) :-
Embedded image permalink
JoeB's tweet comm was: "Canadian going wild on wave east of 50. Day 9 landfall major hurricane.
ECMWF NOT ABOARD.  ".
Wunderground (1 Sept) site has 97L staying in Caribbean

2nd Sept Model Output TC off E USA for 'early next week' is very like our WeatherAction LongRange ATS Formation Forecast (below) - for landfall ~Georgia(or ~ FL, S Carolina) ~5-8th although track to get there from (somewhere) East of Leeward Isles might turn out to be different

5 Sept. 23:20GMT Piers Comments: 
"Seeing one of our East of Leeward Isles Tropical Developments  - which formed on our 29-30th cue - turn into a TS - Gabrielle (in R2 5-6th) AND move our approx forecast track (despite official projections that it would stay in Caribbean) is tremendous. 
"We must now carefully watch its ongoing track and see if it gets up to H level and hits the East USA coast. We expect the two R3s 7-8th and 9th to whack TD Gabrielle into TS and probably H levels, which would make it the first proper Atlantic Hurricane this season"
"Note, Guys this WeatherAction forecast is produced without ANY computer numerical prediction modelling."


(6/7/8 Sept) HOWZAT Britain+Ireland! 
- MONITOR from start Sept
WeatherAction 30d Forecast Warmth peak ~5/6th (for mean temps) and deluges ~ 6/7th (and 8th) and a rapid plunge in temperatures after that was a "Great Call"*** said observers. 
The extract from WeatherAction Easy Look 30d forecast graph (below) for early Sept shows warmth peak followed by rain peak match obs with great timing (within a day) - while standard Met had dithered over the preceding days. 
  • The observed day with highest temperatures UK generally was 5th. 
  • For Central England the three warmest mean temps in early Sept were (provisional figures from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html ) 3rd, 4th and 5th  
  • The heavy rain was more widespread at the start (6th) of the wet spell than WeatherAction had expected in Long Range but it carried on in parts espec S/E on 8th beyond MetO expectations from 12 hrs ahead.
  • The fall in temperatures later was RAPID - as WeatherAction had warned and the fall was more rapid than  the rise - in line with WeatherAction forecast graph.
*** The Comment from the BBC North well known Meteorologist, Paul Hudson was on twitter:

Great long range call Piers. Rapid (meteorological) changes 6th & 7th September. No-one can argue with that @Piers_Corbyn @ClimateRealists



Image preview

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WATCH THIS SPACE - Further News will be Reported

=======================================================

25 Aug WeatherAction Atlantic Tropical Storm/Hurricane Forecast under SLAT9A (ATS)
Note WeatherAction made excellent ATS predictions in 2011, eg forecasting Irene in detail from 12 weeks ahead:
We issued no ATS forecasts for 2012

ATS Formations pending and likely tracks forecast 2013 issued 25 Aug 07.00 utc
Between now and End Sept WA expects 2 Hurricane formations and one TS of note (mainly because of its position), as follows (Each forecast has 85% prob of basic success):-

WA1 Forming ~29-30th Aug reaching H2 (+/-1) at some point. Prob starting East of Leeward Islands, heads W/NW towards near Bahamas, standard models are likely to suggest landfall on the Islands but WA1 will veer slightly right of their projections and stay in Atlantic and HIT GEORGIA (or Florida/South Carolina) around 6/7th (5-8th) Sept.

WA2 Forming ~13-15th Sept reaching H2 (+/-1) at some point, prob less strong that WA1. Prob starting East of Bahamas / Turks & Caicos, heads NW and HITS NORTH (or South) CAROLINA around 17th (16-18th) Sept.

WA3 Forming ~27-28th Sept TS not H. Prob starting East of North Carolina, heads NE in Atlantic towards Eire, UK and Europe.

Other TD/TS (poss H1) events are likely in this period but probably of less significance. These are forecasts of events - not events extracted from a wider forecast. This is a FREE public forecast and circulation / publishing is welcome WITH ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.   
Thank you,  Piers Corbyn +442079399946 / +447908734296
Anyone wishing to support can do so by subscribing to other forecasts / 'donate' to research, links above.

========================================

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Comments submitted - 55 Add your comment
On 17 Sep 2013, Chris H subsriber wrote:

What do you think of this, Piers? https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/246951255828733952/photo/1
On 16 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

cont... but, I'm not saying you are wrong, the while point I made about it possibly being random is true, but it might not be this time. But I believe you would need a lot more info than just temps alone, if you said the suns output perfectly correlated with the same period, ocean currents correlate, wind/storms and surrounding countries etc etc. For example, looking at just UK weather can be problematic as if there is a change in a another part of the globe that did not happen in 1962/3 then we may have been on course for a similar winter but then ths change could knock us off course, so must consider what is happening in other influential zones. Also what about the jet stream, what is its trend this year in comparison or what does Piers say about his expectations for it, because again we could be blocked from seemingly inevitable cold by that bugger.
On 16 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

cont... means there is only a few possible numbers that you will likely get for each month and being so few there is a very high chance over a few years to get similarities purely by chance alone, so comparing temps with other years in my eyes seem no where near enough to predict a trend of any kind because there really is so many differing factors that could be driving those temps that it would seem to me, to just be seeing patterns in random. Which is understandable, it's how we learn, we must see patterns otherwise classical conditioning wouldn't work, granted there is a pattern there but more complicated learning the patterns can be so complex that it would seem random, so our brains are pretty good at seeing patterns which is why you have illusions that can look like more than one image, a vase or a naked body. Then considering your bias towadrs that outcome, that is how I would look at that...
On 16 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

giving enough time then so many seemingly miraculous coincidences can happen just by chance, often called serendipity I believe, or synchronisity... I cnt remember, possibly both, anyway. Some people like magical explanations for amaing coincidences but in something as large as space and as old as space you have enough time for almost every likely event to happen, even down to the most unbelievable coincidedences. When you consider the small number of avg temps, there is not a large gap between the lowest avg and the highest avg. I'm picking meaningless numbers because I simply dont know but I wouldn't hae thought in the UK we have an avg below 3 very often, then rarely an avg over 20. But then you have to consider for each month the choice is even less because you rearely have 20 degrees in mid winter or vice versa, so the avg number for any season is very limited and as there is only 12 months in a year and very few avg temps to choose from...
On 16 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

cont... it's quite hard to explain. But temps can be the same but from various different causes, simply comparing temps alone isn't enough to predict weather because the causes needed to be understood (which is why Piers seems ahead of the game). January one year January could avg 5 for example, because of factor (y) then next year January could be avg 5 again because of factor (x) so just seeing same temps is not an indicator of an actual trend or pattern and it may last a period of time through chance, but eventually you will get differences because ultimately you have failed to consider the factors which in the weather there are so many, and having the presence of factor (a) may change how factor (x) behaves so you need to know ALL factors (which i'm not sure anyone does) then you need to know how all factors interact with each other. It's the issue of causilty, you can have amazing coincidences by chance...
On 16 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

Thanks for the reply Jim, My thoughts, are just that, my thoughts so don't think I am stating this matter of factly because I don't know enough to claim with confidence, I too rely on Piers for his unique accuracey, especially so far ahead. For me, trying to compare similar temps with another year means nothing in a system based on chaos. As I said previously, patterns in random, humans are amazing at seeing patterns, there are some simple but surprising studies on it if you are interested but it can help highlight the problems with looking at data hoping for a pattern. Especially when the weather is based on chaos which is random, or a pretty good case of pseudo random which would require something more reliable than comparing temps with another year because mathematically there is always a chance of having a year with the exact same temps and still then get the winter completely different because the cause of the temps were different...
On 15 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Well, it didn't turn out quite as wild as we had anticipated, windy enough but not a proper gale, SW at first then veering W, then almost completely still in the evening. Some hefty rain through the night but then amounts lessened through the morning and went off completely by afternoon when the sun came out big time. Looking at the radar it was clear that the west got major rain, much less in the east as is often the case when lows come from the west. The low still deepening but heading towards Norway by evening, hence the calm. Overnight temp 10˚C, up to 17˚ by afternoon but now at 10pm down to 3˚, I won't be surprised if there is a frost tomorrow morning, we'll see it straight away on the courgette leaves. Still swallows around, wondering when we'll see the last one. Fabulous clouds today, nimbostratus at first, then lots of cumulus in various forms, including the little fairweather puffs and flat bottomed ones, also really blue sky in between.
On 15 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

IT'S A BIT WINDEEEEE! WeatherAction September forecast for this weekend was for high winds and very heavy thundery showers and flash floods, and that's what we've got. Piers predicted this weather very precisely on the 8th of August in his 60day ahead forecast, the details of which haven't changed in the 30 day forecast. The only error, if you can call it an error, is the wind direction which is NNW instead of N....pffff!
On 15 Sep 2013, janespain subscriber wrote:

Wow Piers - at last - is this a public admission that you ARE right, at last ! mail on sunday http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html a report to be published later this month by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment, published in 2007 The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures ............ Still not the right reasons given, but a big step?
On 14 Sep 2013, Jim M wrote:

Cont...You may disagree but here they are: 1962 4.3 4.4 2.8 7.7 10.3 13.7 15.1 14.5 12.6 10.4 5.5 1.8 2013 3.5 3.2 2.7 7.5 10.4 13.6 18.3 16.9 Let me know your thoughts. Jim M
On 14 Sep 2013, Jim M wrote:

Hi Shaun, Thanks for your reply and no offense taken. I also enjoyed your deep psychoanalysis of my observation :) Yes, I agree. As winter nears you do get people making unreasonable claims and assumptions as to what they think may or may not happen with snow, ice, hail etc. And perhaps I have been guilty of this too but maybe not. Some of us do enjoy harsh winters, with lots of snow (remember it wasn't so long ago that we were told that snow was a thing of the past!), and let's not forget that weather grabbing headlines sell! I too seek integrity in such claims as mine and I put my hope in Piers and Weather Action to give honest and accurate forecasting for the winter ahead. However, getting back to my own post from earlier, I used the CET register compare monthly temperatures from 1962 to the current year and saw some very close similarities...
On 14 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Coldest start for a while today, 6˚C at 7.30, then rising to 16˚, clear start but clouds coming in from the west after 10, building up rolling bands of cumulus clouds, warm in the sunshine that could get through quite frequently until about 4pm, then altostratus moving in, probably anticipating the fronts now arriving with the deepening low south of Iceland. It looks like we are going to get it in the neck in terms of wind but perhaps not as much rain as further south. The MO does not forecast as much disruption as Piers does in his 30d f'cast, so let's see what happens.
On 14 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

Paddy - thanks useful to look at clouds as well as I try to visualise the processes rather than thinking of boxes/flat earth approach which is why the whole CAGW approach fails and their models are not even useful. Re clouds - having issues with time (school hols & usable weather working in unison) but main issue code on wordpress for the dropbox & no straightforward widget (usually easy but just my luck!). Drop a comment on my blog (craigm350.wordpress.com) & I can send you an email for images-then we can let Piers know. With a convective week ahead lots of good photos possible if the timing is right (clearing at dawn/dusk). I hope to annote sat images if poss to show the systems we capture. +++ Russ - Dorothy sadly not influenced by 21yo finest, if I had it may not have been printable *wink* I'd been on Steven Goddard's site, was mentioning lots of vortexes spinning in my 'balloon' and an idea just...grew.
On 14 Sep 2013, Wally wrote:

I'm curious as to what Piers' 30-day ahead forecast was regarding the deluge of rain - some reports say 15 inches within 72 hours - in the Denver to Fort Collins area (includes Boulder) - Colorado, USA.
On 14 Sep 2013, Not supplied wrote:

Carl highlights the devastating flash floods in Boulder, Colorado. Before Dorothy starts warning people about the wicked weather being at fault (she need coins) this is from 2001 highlighting real man made issues "According to some experts including internationally reknown expert Dr. Gilbert White, the Boulder Creek drainage is considered among the most hazardous in the entire western United States due to the extensive development along the corridor and the potential for property destruction and loss of human life. While much has been done to map, mitigate and prepare for such an flood events, there are many businesses, schools and houses in the floodplains of Boulder Creek and its tributaries >> http://bit.ly/73AWb1 < On 13 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Feeling chilly at 8˚C this morning, by lunchtime it got up to a sweltering 13˚! Mostly overcast and somber, with only an occasional pale sun disk visible through the thick stratus clouds. The NW wind felt really cold in the morning, though overall it's been pretty calm today. Looking at the rainfall radar, Piers' 30d f'cast looks spot on for England today, MO forecasting a sunny day for us tomorrow, still yellow wind warning for Sun/Mon. - As an aside: I was stung by a bumble bee queen today, not something that has happened very often to me, I severely disturbed it while sorting trees, so it got understandably rattled. Sharp pain for a few minutes, then it subsided and there was no mark left. I looked it up here http://www.bumblebee.org/bodySting.htm, they do sting, but not very often. - Interesting analogy, Craig, spot on with the wizard:-)
On 13 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:

No offense Jim M, despite hoping for a brilliant winter as snow is my most favourite time of year. Well, I like winter in general actually, ice, cold etc. I find it uncanny how every year someone is claiming this year is like 1962-3 and every year they say this, I do not see it happening. Could you please elaborate on how this year is uncanny in it's comparisons? I am not saying you are wrong, please do not take this the wrong way. I am just pointing out a fair point, when you see this claim every year you start to realise people see what they want, as psychologists would say people see patterns in randomness (in effect often seeing what they want to see, or things that are already somehwhere in their conscious or desires). So if you discuss these similarities maybe people here will be able to talk more in depth on the accuracey of your conclusions.
On 13 Sep 2013, Bill smith NEWales (45d sub) wrote:

Hi Piers I would just like to confirm your forecast for N Scotland for last 2 weeks. First week warm dry , second week ,cool with 3 separate days with half day or less of rain, good account of your forecastt. On way home tomorrow and I see the forecast is poor with the local road sign warnings pre warni flashing for " high winds Sun and Mon," Interseting few weeks coming up!
On 13 Sep 2013, Paul (winter-ish subscriber) Worc wrote:

Thank you Andy B for your link http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=36513&#reference the pdf is a good read Fascinating ! so we are in the "Landscheidt Minimum" - I googled on from there to http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm and also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation well thats my reading list for this wet weekend ! hmmm - anyone know how to pronounce ""Landscheidt" ? Due to Piers cautionaries - the now annual winterising of vehicles is in progress - winter tyres inspected, and ye olde landrover mot-ed, and the new hay barn ( new last year ) is being extended. Reading WA has cost me a lot of money ! - but having not read WA I would have lost livestock
On 13 Sep 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:

This weeks generally light but persistent rain was missed, but the transition to cooler weather was spot on, and this weekends weather looks like being a bulls eye. If I lived in a flood prone area, a subscription would be a must as I would have spent this week moving furniture upstairs.
On 13 Sep 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804 News just in for the USA.
On 13 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Craig... did someone buy you a 21 year old Glenfiddich for your birthday? (wink) I like the Dorothy story... Some days when I read the news I wonder if I fell down a magic rabbit hole at some point in the past, but don't quite believe it yet!....... On the subject of atmospheric layers. Something which Miles Mathis points out in one of his papers about atmospheric pressure is interesting, especially when thinking about different gas molecule sizes, masses and mixing. The standard story states that atmospheric air pressure is pushing at say, your outstretched hand, from all directions at 14.6 psi per square inch so you don't notice the pressure. That's one whole stone of pressure on every square inch of you hand. Shouldn't it feel like it's in a vice? Miles says that if you put your hand on the floor, you should now feel a considerable pressure pushing down on your hand from above...but you don't notice any change! Think about it! Doesn't gas float around? About 15 stones on your hand?
On 13 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

...cont...I asked him why he was crying and the wizard told me the machine had never worked, but if I could "go outside and tell people we need more coins the machine will save us from the wicked weather by helping us understand her". I asked him why he listened to a broken machine he said "it puts a roof over our heads." When I said the roof had been blown off in a tornado he said "Ah you see the machine has predicted that wicked weather will come if I don't feed the machine more coins. The machine keeps telling me so. Whenever I ask it the same question, I get the same answer. Now stop questioning me for if you don't get me coins for the machine, and the new one I'm building from tinman's brain, I'll take away your carbon slipper allowance and chop off your feet because the wicked weather will come with flying monkeys if we don't act, because it's worse than we thought and there could be melting"...and thats why we tell everyone about the wicked weather toto *wink*
On 13 Sep 2013, Jim M wrote:

Wow! Just performing my own obs on the CET register and there is an uncanny similarity between this year’s temps and that of 1962. A ‘precursor’ for this year’s winter Piers? We all know what happened in during the winter of 1962-1963.
On 13 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

...cont...I asked him why he was crying and the wizard told me the machine had never worked, but if I could "go outside and tell people we need more coins the machine will save us from the wicked weather by helping us understand her". I asked him why he listened to a broken machine he said "it puts a roof over our heads." When I said the roof had been blown off in a tornado he said "Ah you see the machine has predicted that wicked weather will come if I don't feed the machine more coins. The machine keeps telling me so. Whenever I ask it the same question, I get the same answer. Now stop questioning me for if you don't get me coins for the machine, and the new one I'm building from tinman's brain, I'll take away your carbon slipper allowance and chop off your feet because the wicked weather will come with flying monkeys if we don't act, because it's worse than we thought and there could be melting"...and thats why we tell everyone about the wicked weather toto *wink*
On 13 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

Since the MetO are amazed at how long known ocean+ atmospheric patterns affect climate ((we won't mention solar/lunar it may be too early for their young minds))-Vicky Pope could be a Dorothy "clicking our carbon feet together did not cause the wicked weather to come this time toto, but the wizard with a slot machine said it might. He said "if we all put our carbon based heels together we will make the wicked weather come back again and again only worse". He said to make the wicked weather go away we should hand over all our possessions so he can "build a better machine to find exactly where this wicked weather is hiding". I told him I had only my ruby slippers which were stuck to my feet after my house killed the wicked weather. The wizard was awfully quiet so I asked him why he was sweating so hard and he said it was warming, which was funny because I was so cold...cont...
On 13 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

The moving pockets of air within our earth balloon seem so chaotic and unpredictable bar the passage of the seasons, or so we are told by the 'settled' 'science' of the flat earth society fronted in this country by the Met Office. A fine example of this was last week when Vicky Pope - head of the climate predictions programme at the Hadley Centre - tweeted this deliberate attempt to 'move on' from massively tax pay funded model and policy failure ==>> "Discussion about hiatus in warming should be about the new and important science". My reply " new science such as the long known AMO/PDO/meridional jetstream? Repackaging by MO does not =new" + "discussion should be why MO did not listen, wasted millions then regurgitates what is already known" >> http://bit.ly/1d9eIua << they offer explanations in hindsight, often after a corporate jig/meeting, delighted they have caught up with everyone else. It's the behaviour you reward in a child.
On 13 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

...cont...now imagine lightly placing a thumb on the balloon. The layers push down on those below and radiate outwards from the pressure (thumb) point. As a result some areas have more liquid/air, others less... in effect this is a very crude analogy of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the poles pushing/knocking air out of the normal seasonal path. The thumb pressure also causes balloon layers to 'stick' even after you stop pressing. It's a way to see blocking but there are so many other factors/forces to include just imagining our earth balloon as a closed system (i.e. no sun or moon). Earth also does not spin on a flat plane as our sun does not wobble on flat plane. We spin around a star this is itself hurtling along a spiral (spinning) galaxy. Our path is not a pea going round a flat disc but rather we, and the planets weave our way round the sun more like the shape of DNA. Vortexes from tiny leaf whirls to hurricanes lie at the heart of weather.
On 12 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

Air in the layers of our imaginary balloon will pass over water and water will pass under air - again with macro/micro effects but generally following the seasons. On top of seasons (our path round the sun-keenly charted by our ancestors) we also have to spin our balloon which creates further added waves & effects. To imagine the spin try a simple experiment-hold a part filled cup of water at a slight angle & walk in a figure of 8 a few times. It's slight but you should see the water elongate as you walk around the bends. If you then v. gently swirl the contents round the cup the effect is much larger. The elongation of water is *roughly* winter & summer air rising/falling. Back to the balloon, with elongated seasonal waves moving in 5 total layers. As our balloon layers are 'elastic', they can expand or contract to adapt to the wave bulges as they pass. This displaces other areas of air or liquid-upwards & downwards setting off further waves and so on...cont...
On 12 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Foggy & mild start, 12˚C with SW gentle breeze, then brightening up by 10 am and getting up to 21˚, a reminder of summer. However, by 4pm the sky was covered over with more and more uniform looking stratus clouds and by 5pm it started raining, fairly heavily at times for about 2 hours. Coming home at 10pm it was 12˚C and the wind had moved into a much cooler NW. - Ron, if I wanted to see snow on Ben Rinnes, I'd have to travel quite a bit further north! All the MO are saying is a yellow wind warning for Sat/Sun and not particularly cold temps, so I'll keep an eye out for this. R5 starts tomorrow, so let's see what happens then as well.
On 12 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

A very crude analogy to understanding atmospheric layers ==>> Imagine a solid ball (the earth)- Surrounding is a clear balloon (suspend disbelief so that gravity, geography & environment etc have no affect..).The balloon is ~33% filled with liquid. Surrounding that balloon is another balloon and so on representing atmospheric air/gas/pressure layers/levels. Through the year the liquid/air in the balloons will roughly seesaw to follow the seasons, rising or falling (i.e. being heated or cooled), but more or less returning to the same position with each cycle. There will be bulges & pockets everywhere, which create macro+micro effects-rain drops merging into others & into fast flowing streams. Some areas will have air moving, others liquid but no one 'sphere' or band will have equilibrium (i.e. all gas or all liquid) i.e. lots of movement+mixing constantly happens. ...cont...
On 12 Sep 2013, Jim M wrote:

Piers, would it be possible with a 'look back method' to determine (or see), whether the great Southern UK hurricane in Oct 87, was in fact during an 'R5' (or equivalent) period? Thanks, Jim
On 12 Sep 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#extra-uk-content Bullseye for Piers and team again, MObeeb forecast and weather warning now inline with WA forecast issue how many weeks ago ? Well done WA.....yet again
On 12 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Piers, a thought. How about making the normal line on your graphs a different colour -it can be the same thickness, but a colour such as orange or purple would make the above and below averages a lot quicker and easier to digest.
On 12 Sep 2013, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:

Paper out , is Uranus & Neptune responsible for the solar minimum, click on the PDF tab for full paper it is a bit beyond my understanding should be right up Piers street. http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=36513&#reference
On 12 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Paddy, You might see some snow on Ben Rinnes on Sunday and most probably I 'll see it on Ben-y-Ghloe---unless of course the Mobeeb are wrong.
On 11 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Overcast today, with rain from about 7 – midday, some quite heavy downpours. 12˚C at 7.30, rising slowly to 16˚ max, it felt mild all day. Light NW wind until early afternoon, then SE with occasional drizzle, actually a perfect day for working in the tunnel. Now at 10pm we have fog and a mild 13˚, presumably warm air coming up from the SW as per 18:00 MO analysis chart, different from Piers' Euro Pressure prediction, holding breath now to see what will happen when the R5 starts on 13th.
On 11 Sep 2013, Bill smith NE Wales 45 d sub wrote:

Since last post on Sunday the weather has definitely stayed in the autumnal vei up here in Inverness area.. Sunday was sunny but cool,Monday sunny Tuesday after overnight rain was surprisingly dry but cloudy.Today had very wet start but soon dried up but stayed cloudy with some late sunshine and warmer 17 c. swallows and swifts made a brief appearance for a half hour feeding over the lochan on Tuesday but are definitely gone now like the summer of last week. Whilst up here I have seen more and more wind turbines going up over the last few years ,the most disheartening one of late, if it gets its planning approval is the Glen Affric 21mw farm.A tragedy if it gets the go ahead spoiling a national treasure in unspoilt woodland. See how many are running this week , not many and this weekend? Not many :- too windy perhaps?
On 11 Sep 2013, David Rowe,Wirral wrote:

Hi Piers & All, Just an update on my 1K challenge to anyone who can scientifally prove AGW.Since I had no response from my twitter account I have emailed the Labour,Tory,Green party & even that nest of tarradiddlers the Guardian,but all to no avail.In desparation I contacted Greenpeace who in fairness came back quite quickly with the gem that 97% of climate scientists are in agreement of AGM,so thats all right then! You can all be reassured that a caustic answer is winging its way to them right now.
On 10 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

The NZ storm has wreaked havoc as it moved up the country overnight http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9149704/Storms-head-north-after-thrashing-south. So far in our area we've got off lightly - a bit of thunder and lightening earlier, some heavy falls of rain but also some sunshine. Winds are strong (had to keep the greenhouse shut this morning).
On 10 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Really gusty N wind today, fairly noisy in the trees and even noisier in the polytunnel, side curtains flapping loudly. 10˚C this morning at 7.30, rising only to 15˚ max. Mostly stratocumulus clouds with occasional sunny breaks, so not too dark, but what a change when I think that last Mon/Tues we had 26˚C here! - Craig, our single apple tree is full of fruit, which only happens about every 5 years or so, it is really surprising this year after the late spring; success always depends on the weather at flowering time, in our case it is only bumble bees and maybe a few other insects who do the pollinating, there are no bees in our vicinity anymore.
On 10 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:

Very good article picked up by @ClimateRealists ==>> "After last year’s disastrous wet summer, there were fears that some grassland butterflies such as the Adonis and chalkhill blues would be in big trouble this year. Yet a one-hour count of chalkhill blues near Dorking in Surrey produced an incredible 3,200 butterflies — smashing the previous record of 825 from 2006." >> http://dailym.ai/15ENhlz << Nature's boom & bust is very noticeable this year with conditions favouring many species...eventually. It simply means they have more chance of surviving the next few seasons which may not be so favourable. +++ A better crop of strawberries last year but it was spreadout. This year was short & productive but the fruit was better tasting. Local plum trees did really well in 2010, but for the second year running lacked pollinating insects, mostly bees. +++ The geese on the move the past 2 weeks, reds & yellows increasing but trees only just showing a turn.
On 10 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

John E & Wendy: No it was not a high quality production, but Blackout still made the case for considering the awful( underestimation here) the prospects for power outages should they occur over prolonged periods in severe weather. I had 4 weeks without water in 2009-10 and 6 weeks 2010-11 due to frozen mains pipes and we had a 55 hr outage in 2011 which luckily not coincident with the severe weather. Being in a rural area many of us had stoves and open fires, with access to clean river water and wood fuel. The options and prospects in urban areas are much less flexible. Already there have been mentions in the press of rolling outages and with a cooling planet in prospect we might be facing our own much nastier version of Blackout
On 10 Sep 2013, WENDY wrote:

Watched Blackout last night.Quite a disturbing scenario.I thought the script was very poor. though ,as was the production.Switched off before the end,because the programme featured too many close ups of youths and the obligatory swearing!. Where were the older people,50 +,to give a balanced view? Did theyfeature later on?Weather 11% and a cold wind in the Peak District.
On 10 Sep 2013, Len wrote:

One observation about "Blackout". It was clear that the actor siphoning petrol had never tasted the stuff in real life - not even a grimace! I believe that the UK's utilities are nowhere near as robust as depicted in the programme.
On 10 Sep 2013, JohnE wrote:

I watched Blackout as well last night and confess to being quite disturbed by the ease at which life suddenly changes. I accept that this was a drama and hence the script was designed to keep our attention but civil unrest is unpredictable and when something which the majority of us take for granted is withdrawn then brown stuff hits the fan very quickly. Even in my house we were debating how we could survive for a week or so. I have a touring caravan with its own gas supply but that would not last more than two weeks so the reality is quite scary for most of us. A change in our weather norms will cetainly push us to extremes of action and activity so maybe just maybe we really ought to be taking this sort of stuff on board and preparing. What strikes me is that this drama was only over a week or so. Our weather could leave us in dire straights for months or more. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
On 10 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

NSW Australia is experiencing a heatwave and bush fires http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/9147915/Bushfire-engulfs-NSW-home-threatens-others.
On 10 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Ah yes Piers, do you mean like those in the Mobeeb who forecast an ice-free Arctic by 2013 in a documentary just a few years ago, but now we have a 60% increase in ice extent compared to this time last year?!!. Watched 'Blackout' on C4 last night with interest. Whatever one's views on the production quality or script ,it did raise major issues of concern over the prospects of major power failures over extended periods. Imagine if the scenario they depicted had happened in December 2010 or March this year!!. Wonder how the sales of camping and survival gear will fare in the next few days?
On 10 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

We have some very wild weather hitting NZ at the moment http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9146816/Wild-weather-sweeps-country It hasn't reached us yet but the forecast isn't looking good for the top of the South Island. We've just come out of the R3 period and approaching an R5 - is this the R5 hitting us early Piers?
On 09 Sep 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

PADDY, STEVE YES - It is much colder in line with Sept forecast. SLAT9A is doing well so we have also produced OCTOBER (Late yes) and also LONGER RANGE summaries out to May 2014. == RE OFFER NOW ON I am puzzled there is almost no interest in the current free forecast offer - maybe they have been waiting for October?! == RHYS Tony Abbott on WeatherAction forecasts. Yes worth a whirl and you are right his predecessors had screws loose. His interest in forecasts would go up if we also forecast Australia to win the next Ashes (Note I deny I said that. You just imagined it, close your eyes and those words disappear, try it, there you are, UNSAID. A bit like unsaying ' We are now in a period of runaway warming and the end of snow' Try it there to. It's true you can UNSAY anything by closing your eyes.
On 09 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

As far as we're concerned, autumn has arrived: we heard and saw our first flight of geese overhead this morning. I know some of you have seen them already a while ago (Lancashire & Netherlands), but for us that is always a sure sign of the change. If I had a pub up here I would call it the Goose & Swallow, they cross over every spring & autumn before one takes the other's place, so to speak. - Overnight temp 5˚C, max 18˚ by afternoon, warm sunshine from time to time, winds mostly NW, fairly gentle. Splendid displays of towering cumulus in the NW sky, which eventually moved over us and occasioned a few light showers. Working in the polytunnels is now less stifling than a week ago.
On 09 Sep 2013, Rhys Jaggarq wrote:

The new Australian PM may be more amenable to WeatherAction forecasting methods than the previous incumbent. A spot of long-range Ashes Test forecasts might be an interesting means to establish credentials?
On 09 Sep 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Had the central heating on for the first time this autumn last night, dropped to 7C in our corner of SW Essex. A murky, misty, miserable day with last weeks heat now a distant memory as Mother Nature flips the switch from Summer to Autumn. Expect people to get ill with viruses and colds any day now, especially the morons still wearing shorts and t-shirts! I must say that the September forecast is going very well. I'm glad we repaired our garden fence earlier in the year, methinks this month could be a testing one for weak structures!
On 09 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Sunday - saw a funnel cloud form out of very dark cloud near the coast. I thought it might get to ground level and become a tornado, (was it a tornado even if it was not at ground level?) but after ten minutes it faded upwards. Today cooler, showers, and the swallows have been gathering to fly south. Poly-tunnel doors closed - only south vent left open. Time to admit autumn has come- (though temp may rise on Friday), and with it comes the ploughing match season. East Sussex match in our village this year on the 28th.
On 09 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

I am going to look at the docudrama 'Blackout' on C4 tonight with a great deal of interest as its subject matter may presage the future power supply options based on the whopping scam of AGW and the subsequent 'renewables' scam based upon it.