On 15 Oct 2015, Harriet wrote:
that the Earth can only make so much Ice and most of that has been going to the Antarctic. So there is not as much left over for the Arctic. Easy Grade School Science. Even AL can understand this. ;-) pg
On 23 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, light NE’ly breeze, sunny with lovely cirrus formations, temp rising to 21˚, which is again a first for this year. However, by midday the haar started rolling in from the south and the obligate sea breeze really knocked the warmth on the head and made for a dull 2nd half of the day. 9˚ again by 9.30.
On 23 Apr 2015, steven wright wrote:
thanks geoff i will look it up
On 23 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.... I saw my first Swallow near Newton Stewart in the Borders on Tuesday....... Although the afternoons have been suitably warm, a chilly breeze is always waiting in the background, and the mornings and evenings have been very chilly, so this particular weather period is a double edged sword.
On 23 Apr 2015, geoff hood wrote:
Steven , you may wish to look a recent sunspot predictions of Leif Svalgaard and results of mannetic measurement by livingston and penn though i doubt short termie within two years that any decent into a Dalton minimum and cold winters would be measurable due to other weather factor oscilations
On 22 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, warmest morning temp so far this year. Contrary to MO’s prediction yesterday (cloudy & cooler) we had yet another splendid sunny day, max temp 19˚, even more in sunny & sheltered spots. N’ly wind early on, turning into SSE around 11am, on cue for the present HP conditions, 8˚ at 10pm. == Still haven’t seen any swallows, though my wife & sun have. A friend who lives about 4 miles away further inland reported ice on top of water butts yesterday morning. Grass is not growing with a great deal of vigor yet.
On 22 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another great day of sunshine n blue sky, birds have suddenly got lively and have been singing away all day, 7 deg at 9 a.m max 17 back to 13 now at 8pm we have been so lucky this month a lovely steady spring with good dry sunny periods to get loads done outside, this months forecast has been so helpful to be motivated # happy :)
On 22 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// my friend Pete in Chicago has just posted they snow fluouries - interesting
On 22 Apr 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
The fine weather continues on from the weekend. Chilly in evenings and with a north-easterly wind keeping the temps down. As I live near Gatwick in the 6 weeks I have lived here it is interesting to note how often the wind has been from the east when our norm is prevailing westerly winds. it is very easy to tell as the flight path changes from landing to take off. Excellet forecasting to far.
On 22 Apr 2015, steven wright wrote:
the amounts of sun spots have been falling sharply since the beginning of this year i guess they will pick a little during the rest of 2015 i was on another web page and they said solar circle 24(which we are in now) is simaler to solar circle 12 if so we (UK) could be in for a very cold winter (2015-2016 and for the next two as well would this make sense on how our weather works in uk?
On 22 Apr 2015, C View wrote:
Already energized by the action of a high-speed solar wind stream, Earth's magnetic field could receive an additional jolt on April 22nd from an incoming CME. Text taken from spacewether.com. Looks like there will be some storminess somewhere although not here although it looks like we are seeing a circulation change with a cold northwesterly airflow poised to plunge down over the UK for several days
On 22 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
UQ offers free course to combat climate change deniers...Mr Cook said the MOOC taught five of the key strategies: false experts, logical fallacies, impossible expectations, cherry-picking facts and conspiracy theories (FLICC). "The way you do it practically is explain the techniques of science denial, explain the fallacies that a specific myth uses," he said. "This gives people the critical thinking skills to be able to identify myths then reconcile them with the facts. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/uq-offers-free-course-to-combat-climate-change-deniers-20150422-1mqtic.html ......lol. its really quite sad the co2ers need a course to defend their non science. So according to them the ability to predict weather sometimes 200 days in advance like WA is doing this month is 'a myth' and not predict record results facts?
On 22 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Global warming not progressing as fast as depicted in worst-case models...The research used empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability." Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one it was seen at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections."....co2ers still have no idea to the cause of why warming happens or does not happen and continue to decontextualise data from ice age cycles, refuse to admit we are in an inter glacial warming period and falsely present a correlation as a cause. http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/global-warming-not-progressing-as-fast-as-depicted-in-worst-case-models-115042200243_1.html
On 22 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Clear skies last night. Slightly misty this morning and didn't seem like it was frosty, but the car had a millimetre of transparent ice on the screen at 5:30am. So what causes ice to form frost as opposed to forming transparent ice? Could it be the speed at which the water freezes? Maybe it's because the windscreen drops several degrees below freezing, then the mist rolls in on the breeze and freezes instantly, not giving the water enough time to form frosty crystals. Or perhaps the opposite? Very slow freezing ....or even repeated cycles over several hours of freezing followed by melting, then re-freezing??
On 21 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, not a sign of frost and warming up nicely as the sunny morning went on, to an actual 20˚ which the ubiquitous sea breeze did little to dampen after 11am. Even the blackbirds were singing again full throttle, tulips now out in force. Light winds more from a W’ly direction (until the sea breeze started up), which may explain the higher temps, though for tomorrow MO is announcing a cloudy & cooler day. Already cloudy at 9.30pm with a temp of still 10˚.
On 21 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Really gorgeous weather the last 2 days, a little cloud at times yesterday but mostly sunny and perfect for digging with a slight breeze, slight grass frost this morn. clearing quickly with the beautiful early blue sky and sunshine that was all day, shorts on again and max 16/17 deg. Still sunny and 14 now at 7.20 pm looks like rain coming on Friday which although I could stay outside all day everyday I have to say it's needed for the soil, Tulips nearly out, had some Spinach tonight and first cut of Asparagus for dinner tomorrow yay :)
On 21 Apr 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32390793 - Houses washed away in ferocious storms striking New South Wales in SE Australia - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32392495 Now THAT is extreme weather. Over on Netweather.tv, some are speculating we're in for a prolonged warm summer once the end of April's northern plunge is out of the way. I didn't understand most of it. I understand the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) but the MJO and El Nino tend to sail over my head at Mach 5... Piers - EXCELLENT performance for Slat 12 for March and April to date by the way. Kudos again but as I've said before your accuracy does tend to improve during Spring and Summer. I cannot explain it but I will report back at the end of 2015 with further analysis. Slat 12 could be the one...
On 21 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
more wind in the willows type summer weather today. Forecast been good this month. As for the experts who say WA type forecasting is impossible they have so much time and money they doing this- "Met Office staff got involved in a day-long challenge to try to create a ‘coin river’ trail of coins running from one end of the Exeter HQ building to the other. "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_G23cZUgwE
On 21 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Getting warmer and warmer! A very beautiful look to the Scottish Highland hills Ron. Brindled is the gaelic description as in the name of the mighty Braeriach in the Cairngorm massif....brindled hill. It's said by many that the ancient gaelic folk had little imagination when naming Scottish hills. Well I would rather see the names: Long Hill and Big Hill, rather than: David Beckham Hill or Ringo Star Ridge, as is common these days........ Everything leafing up very quickly, the trees down south, around the Cotswolds, are all in leaf, with Derbyshire only a whisker behind.
On 20 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 and no frost because there was overnight cloud. Light NE’ly breeze to beging with but then the usual flip into SSE’ly onshore wind by around 11am & persisting until 5-6pm. Glorious sunny day again - now WOULD be the time to be in Scotland, agreed RON - nice and warm in the tunnels, max temp 17˚ out of the wind, tulips really opening now. 7˚ by 9.30 pm and falling, if it does stay clear I’ll expect to see a frost. I do notice that bird song is still somewhat muted, apart from the never ending chaffinches, it is as if everyone is holding back even in the sunny weather.
On 20 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
I should perhaps modify my comments to Dave to the extent that GFS is predicting a cold end to the month and early May---but no midgies likely!!
On 20 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVE(Leicester) I confidently predict slow moving fronts of midgies, with frequent outbreaks of biting cleggs, July being one of the peak months for this kind of activity.Pray that Piers predicts a low frequency of muggy thundery days and a high frequency of moderate westerlies. The best time to visit the Highlands is in the next 6 weeks. Right now we are having glorious blue skies, warm sunshine ( with a cool breeze) with the snow patches on the higher hills giving the landscape a 'Nordic' look.
On 20 Apr 2015, Steve, Dorset, UK sub wrote:
Dave Leicester... I think July come out In mid June for 45day subs end June 30day subs I think. You can get a cast for July now but you would have to ask piers.
On 20 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Deep frost this morning...very cold!
On 19 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast, very fine drizzle, cold N’ly breeze, couldn’t be more different to yesterday. However, by about 2pm, the cloud receded SW-wards and we ended with a splendid sunny afternoon, albeit a cold one, max temp only 13˚. By 9.30 pm we had 5˚, if it stays clear we’ll likely see a frost again tomorrow morning.
On 19 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
7 deg. this morn 8.30 a.m a little mist in the distance, blue sky and sun all day but again cooler with the breeze, max temp 13 deg. but nice enough to get the 2nd early spuds in the ground, nice sunny eve. 9 deg at 7.30 pm
On 19 Apr 2015, Dave (Leicester) wrote:
I'm planning a holiday to the highlands in July, so when is the July forcast out?
On 18 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, much of our grass white with a light frost which didn’t touch the ground (though the car was really white), then brilliant sunshine all day, though with a cold SE’ly breeze which gave this typical mixture for the coastal strip in spring of bright sun and cold wind. The haar was visible on the coast but never encroached inland much, which is a bonus. Max temp only 15˚ out of the wind, felt like at least 5˚ lower in the wind, 6˚ by 10pm under a clear sky. == Heard my first willow warbler today, so the migrants are slowly returning, haven’t seen a marsh harrier for years, Russ. = Michael, we grow trees in our large polytunnels, in there quite a lot just now, so getting a lot of heat; we also have a large tunnel for veg, which is an important part of our annual food production/economy. From experience, they are able to withstand ferocious winds; we are exposed as such but have planted a lot of trees over the years which now make a considerable difference.
On 18 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Blue sky and sunshine 7 deg at 8.30 a.m stayed nice all day but a little breezy making it feel cooler, would have been cold without the sun 13 deg. max..11 now at 19.51 pm great weather for sorting the garden.
On 18 Apr 2015, Michael wrote:
Paddy,what tunnels are you working?
Here in the souther Brecon Beacons it is blowing a gale from the east on a bitterly cold sunny morning.Any thoughts on the wind as MOBEEB has not mentioned.
On 18 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Craig.... I've noticed a distinct cut-off between thriving plants and the 'still think it's winter' plants. In the valleys, up to about 300ft asl, everything is leafing, flowering and going springtime bonkers, but beyond 600ft asl, nothing grows. It's rather spooky to observe. Willows and Birches in town are almost in full leaf but up on the moors, nothing. Even the grass is reluctant to show any growth at all, and whole tracts of Birch scrubland show no signs of greenery. The birds seem active enough although I haven't noticed any early summer visitors, apart from a lone Marsh Harrier a couple of weeks ago, which was a nice surprise........ Overall, loads of wall to wall blue sky and very warm sun, but always a bitter chill in the breeze. Walking home from the pub last night, every breath visible, our muscles tensed against a strong and very cold easterly wind, it was difficult to believe that there's only 2 weeks to May.
On 18 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY--CRAIG.
It's one of the fascinating features of these islands that local bioclimatic conditions vary so much within short linear and altitudinal distances.
Paddy and I both live at very similar altitudes in northern Scotland, but Blair Atholl is central and Paddy's site fairly coastal and it's greatly interesting to see the comparison of his reports with mine, just because of that. Even just 30 miles down the road in Perth, flowering times can be a week to 10 days ahead of us up here and even the difference in frost or snow frequency/severity can be very marked between here and Pitlochry( 7 miles away), Dunkeld ( 19 miles away) and the dreaded Drumocter Pass, 19 miles away in the other direction. Sharp frost this morning, now gloriously sunny. Wish I had a polytunnel like Paddy!
On 18 Apr 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Wild wet weather for the North Island of NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/67853064/elderly-man-trapped-by-rising-water-as-wild-weather-hits-north-island. Meanwhile here in Motueka (top of the South Island a very warm day (rained overnight) up to about 19 or 20 deg after a cool week following last Sunday/ Monday's cold southerly. Could be a very contrasting autumn this year.
On 18 Apr 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Paddy - just the one. Really only this week that the dandelions have awoken. Looking at previous years flower photo's this is a late year. // richard - bad news for them. If they'd paid any attention they would have seen the pacific blob as a response to solar max. As solar activity now wanes, despite active sunspots like AR2321 (i.e. flux up to 160 (was 106 on 10th) SSN 89 (was 37)), so the blob is likely to begin fading. // Nice today in the sun but cool in the shade as the dewpoints dropped // Interesting list of companies that show not one of them have a democratic bone in their bodies. The boldest action they should be calling for at COP21 is an end to the opulence of delegates and the army of hangers on that we all fund. They should follow this by shoving their heads where the sun doesn't shine as that seems to be where they pluck their ideas from. They can keep their ideas. ===
http://ow.ly/LLXQw
On 17 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A little hazy to start 6 deg. at 8.30 but a mostly sunny day once the sun had burnt through the cloud, rising to max 16 deg. light E'ly wind which made it feel cooler at times when the cloud shifted across, but enough sun to overheat the tunnel and need the doors wide open and feel a big contrast when stepping in and out, 10 deg. at 23.46 pm
On 17 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, no frost as there was quite a bit of cloud cover overnight. Turned into a glorious sunny day, light winds N-NE’ly a first, followed by the obligate SSE’ly sea breeze in the afternoon, because of which max temp was only 16˚. Working as we are in the tunnels just now, it was of course roasting. Lovely clear evening with Venus and Jupiter shining bright, still a bit of light at 9.30 pm when we had 6˚. == Craig: dandelions seeding with you? Well, with us they’ve only just opened, saw tortoise shell & peacock butterflies feeding on them, quite a lot of them about. Very few tulips out, though the ones we planted in large pots in the autumn are about to open.
On 17 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
co2ers praying the pdo switch will bring the warming 'back on track'.
On 17 Apr 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...but more fleeting. For me on the fringes of CET heartland; 2013 was a late, cold spring; 2014 early & very,very wet;
2015 seems bit dry but average. Seemed late to get going but everything caught up last two weeks. It's late only in relation to what I have come to expect these past two decades but when I look back in history is bang on average. Sap rises. April growth & seemingly sudden creep of green needing taming is here & now. Only the dandelions seem really late with the first lone wispy seed head finally seen today. The grass verges are finally awakening with an explosion of yellow heads. Last year they sporadically flowered all winter & were full on come March. Overall though all the spring flowers, bar snowdrops which were pretty anaemic here with a lack of penetrating frosts, have been there in the appropriate window (i.e Mother's Day etc). Dafs (rubbish this year no real flourish anywhere but they are never really lacking) are so last week, this is Tulip week!!
On 16 Apr 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
... quote link === http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/#note-7980-6 === // My soil is a 'lovely' mix of clay/chalk. It lack organic matter & easily gets dusty dry. Deep soil moisture is perfect for digging currently & just enough latent deep soil moisture for transplanting to hold. 09-11 I could dig a foot down & it was dry, dusty hard work. It's been light work ever since 2012 broke that particular drought. It has been a dry spring so far & wet summers often follow as a 'balance' or return. This recent mostly clear and very sunny, *very* warm, spell gets my heckles rising for the summer ahead. It really has been glorious, at times, right up there with that lovely mid to late 2000's zenith we were lucky enough to live through. An early prolonged spring is a memory I look forward to passing down. They will of course happen again...
On 16 Apr 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Quick drop in-been busy with the news blog+life. Very pleased with WeatherAction forecasts as had some beautiful April days as expected. The update appreciated as is the May 45d which is a turn around but quite understandable when a closer look is taken at the progression through the 8 periods. An interesting route to 'summer' awaits us. // The predicted change over Easter weekend was/is quite stunning. I always look to Easter as an opposite sign of the year ahead. What goes now invariably flips by solstice. Where drought plagues California=a flip just as April 2012 flipped the plucky British into the 'wettest drought ever '. Instead of understanding this charlatans predict what is now is forever more & forever was. What is above may well below "The vision recurs; the eastern sun has a second rise; history repeats her tale unconsciously, and goes off into a mystic rhyme; ages are prototypes of other ages, and the winding course of time brings us round to the same spot again"
On 16 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
John Blakely..... Ouch! You spotted my error. This is what happens when I'm busy and try to squeeze in a quick post before rushing out to catch a train. The error was this: "Calling a filament of plasma a magnetic filament is wrong and misleading."...... Of course the term I was 'supposed' to give was this: "....an unstable filament of magnetism....". It's easy for someone unused to scientific terms to be confused by the subtle difference but it is so important...well I think it is! Thanks for pointing out my error, and lessening my embarrassment.
On 16 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A sunnier & warmer day today, 4˚C at 7.30, frost on the car roof, but nowhere else, slight W’ly breeze with beatiful cirrus formations above us, max temp 16˚, though by 3pm the S’ly sea breeze started up & became quite strong, making us feel cold in exposed places even with the full-on sun. 5˚ at 9pm, feels like a frost again.
On 16 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mixed few days but improving again day by day, morning temp around 6 deg. max 14-16 deg. More sunshine last couple of days too, birch coming out in leaf horse chestnut buds just starting to make a move too and the hedges greening up around the place, asparagus finally making an appearance, beginning to get food on the plate from the Polytunnel is nice after all the hard work getting it back up and running, see the first couple of swallows about also, slow but sure it's all starting to happen :)
On 15 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Cooler day today, 7˚C at 7.30, rain overnight which lasted until 8am, then it got brighter and breezy from WNW, very sunny at times and would have been warmer than the 13˚ max if it hadn’t been for the wind. Mostly dry with only the odd shower, 7˚ again at 9pm.
On 15 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// spotted 2 swallows in a car park but nothing substantial in my neck of the woods yet......going to have to buy Piers forecast next month - caught out the last few days - phew it has been warm, people sunbathing on the beach as if it was mid summer. the temperatures are falling seemingly the next few days, but strange I don't recall a heat wave like this before so close to Easter but then I suppose the sun is very active and it would be interesting to compare data historically - who knows this could have happened in the medieval period. Over to you Piers?
On 15 Apr 2015, John Blakely wrote:
Interesting point you've raised Russ re magnetic filaments. The first direct observation of these filaments was made by Sheely in 1967 and they have been cited numerous times since. I think you might be most interested in this article in Solar Physics by Stenflo & Frazier
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00153105
On 15 Apr 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Saturday morning started wet but then cleared and it has been nice weather ever since. Not quite the amended forecast as I presume the low did not come as far south-east as expected. Back on track with high pressure and looking good until weekend after next. By contrast, the northern US and Canada still in the grip of winter with ice keeping the St Lawrence seaway closed. Coldest winter on record for the NE US. Not hearing much of this on the BBC obviously. My query to the sitting MP regarding the Climate Change Act has not been answered.
On 15 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
I apologise for this next pop at a scientist, but some scientists just open themselves up for attack. I cannot understand how a physicist can use terminology which is simply confusing and misleading. Surely they are supposed to communicate science to the masses 'without' using unnecessary names, terms and/or phrases. Calling a filament of plasma a magnetic filament is wrong and misleading. You can't have a filament of magnetism. Neither can you have a kilo of electricity, or a bag of voltage. A filament of magnetic plasma is good. A filament of electrically charged plasma is also good. But calling a zone in a complex magnetic field a physical name is just so wrong it's embarrassing! Perpendicular to that same field is an electric field, but no one in their right mind would say that there was a filament of electricity or a filament of voltage, because the electric charge isn't a physical object, neither is the magnetic component. But then physics has gone virtual so anything goes now...
On 15 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Richard...... If we panic, then the whole pack of cards, which the elite have been carefully stacking in their favour for the past few hundred years, will come crashing down. They must keep control; It's in their interest to do so. In 1972, at the point the astrophysicists were announcing that a new ice age was on the horizon, the elite decided there and then that we should be told the opposite to avoid panic. At that point also, they had to put a chain of events in place to give them more control and lift their own wealth status, so that their own extended families would be better positioned and protected from future food shortages and financial instabilities due to crop failures, stock market crashes and hyper-inflation. The single world government is meant to control the whole population, not just the elites home countries. All these scare stories about pandemics and zombie-apocalypses, are just smoke and mirrors. Third world populations will plummet soon enough by natures hand....!
On 15 Apr 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
What a absolutely ripping day yesterday, you said it would be sunny and hot in your April cast and by god it was, thanks piers you are a clever man.
On 15 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A remarkable 9˚C at 7.30, first time this year that it’s been so warm in the morning. But it was cloudy for the whole day, so max temp was only 16˚, this was very agreeable though as there was little SSW wind in the morning, got a bit stronger in the afternoon, dry all day though. Still 11˚ at 8.30pm. It seems that the cold shock came at the beginning of the present R4 period, even a day early on the 11th.
On 15 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
probably early days still but slat 12 seems to deliver so far.
On 15 Apr 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Given the dramatic decline in the magnetic field over the last 100 years and the acceleration of the pole movements is also 'correlated' with the 'warming' seems odd the co2ers don't big that up as well. Maybe they don't because its not 'man made' and so can't be taxed. Given pole flips are associated with mass extinctions and at current pole speeds it could happen in next 50 years they should be screaming about that? If the magnetic shield collapses and a solar flare blows out the power grids where will people get clean drinking water? Civilisation would collapse in a week without power bringing political/social change .. A pole flip is more likely to deliver the co2ers dream of living in as tribes in mud huts than the co2 ever will?
On 13 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, very slight frost in sheltered places, very sunny if blowy from the South, max temp 14˚. By midday, cloud started moving in and there was rain between 3 - 5pm. Less windy by evening, feeling mild with 8˚ at 9pm.
On 13 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// I really can't believe I am writing this - tomorrow it will be 20 degrees out and 10 degrees in which means when I attempt to swim in the sea tomorrow in Guernsey that's the experience.
On 13 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Looks like the BBC are having a field-day, what with all the 'SEASONAL' wild-fires across the world. Notice the way that certain words, in completely irrelevant articles, are used for maximum propaganda effect? Take the article that states that the Russians are going to 'UNFREEZE' their supply of arms to Iran. Are they about to, with their bedfellows the Met Office, going to hit us with the warmest, unprecedented spring, in UK recorded history?...again?
On 13 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Nice pleasant sunny day until 1pm, then light cloud spoiled everything. Without the direct sun temp's plummeted and the cool breeze took on a biting nature. Not a bad day overall.
On 13 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS showing pronounced Arctic blast for the UK 27-29th, so good test for standard models. Won't be surprised if it doesn't happen!
On 13 Apr 2015, Richard Brown from Hull wrote:
Driving back from Kirkcudbright on Sunday morning, it was heavy snow, 1 or 2c and snow was settling. The A75 looked very wintry. Temp rose to 9c near Penrith. Very windy on A66 with rain. Lots of variation in the weather in just one day!!
On 13 Apr 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The R4 has brought a cold blast from the Antarctic to the South Island http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67708001/snow-begins-to-fall-in-the-south-island. Also, cold weather for Wellington and central NZ. I wish they wouldn't refer to it as winter come early when its just a cold snap.
On 12 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, sunny day with clouds that looked like they could produce showers but hardly did, stiff W - NW’ly all day, max temp 11˚, clear evening, 4˚ at 9pm, feeling colder in the wind. Driving about we noticed that the usual hills were covered in patchy snow, not often seen at this time of year unless the spring is late. Again, they were talking abour snow on the radio this morning. Birds still bravely singing, though the thrushes seem to have moved away.
On 12 Apr 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Piers
Your April forecast to date appears to be uncannily accurate for NW London and looks set to continue to be so for the next 7 days at least.
On 12 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Really heavy rain and windy here this a.m saying 10 deg. But feels cooler more like 6 or 7 ..seems like a good day for a day off to rest. Well forecasted again by Piers..
On 12 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
fairly steady wet snow this morning, settling at about 250 metres in the heavier bursts. It looks more like November than April.
On 11 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, started with hail stones and sometimes heavy rain & even a hint of snow, lasted until 10 when it gradually started brightening up in a blustery and cold W’ly wind which lasted all day. 11˚ max but nice and hot in the tunnels in the sun of course. Clear night and 3˚ again at 10pm. == The cold has arrived exactly as per Piers’ recent update, quite a change from the 45 & 30d forecast, Radio Scotland was talking about snow on the hills this morning.
On 11 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cool start 4 deg. Rising to max 10 today back to 8 now @ 9pm but feeling cooler. Mixed breezy cooler day of cloud sunshine n showers a couple of light small hail showers also. I heard some areas like Donegal saw a slight bit of snow this morn.
On 11 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Wet snow here at 1800 hrs at 140metres in Highland Perthshire, but not lying. We've had worse at this time of year.
On 11 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Still waiting on swallows to arrive in my area do they know something or perhaps they have read Piers forecast - don't know but in previous years they have been here by end of March - Guernsey
On 11 Apr 2015, east side wrote:
Fascinating bit about the St Patrick's day CME storm today from troposphere balloon launch & some proper science:-
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2015/09apr15/stpatricksdaystorm2_strip.jpg
A forbush decrease at the poles was clearly showing a "reverse forbush decrease" at the equator.
Real scientists of course accompany their work with the following statement:-
"During the storm, which lasted for more than two days, cosmic radiation levels in the stratosphere jumped by more than 6%. Radiation levels did not return to normal until a week after the CME strike"
These results show that we still have a lot to learn about the response of Earth's atmosphere to solar storms. Stay tuned for more results from the ballooning program."
Alas the majority of pseudo scientists say "the science is settled"!
They just know it all!
Just like the people who got stranded on Shokalskiy to prove the ice in the Antarctic was all disappearing.
On 10 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30 (3˚ overnight), sunny but with a very light touch of frost in a few sheltered places, bright morning with a goodish S’ly breeze that lasted all day, pleasantly warm around midday with 17˚ max, but cooler and cloudier afternoon, 8˚ at 10pm under a reasonably clear sky. MO says rain overnight, though I wonder how much of that will get through to us. Waiting to see what happens on the 12th…
On 10 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Oops working that hard n fast today I just sent message b4 I had written it!-) Parky to start 4 deg. this morn with a little fog, cleared to give another sunny day though on the cooler side max 14/15 deg. Still 10 deg. at 7.45 pm feels cooler a little breezy and some clouds drifting in across the sunset of which some lovely ones the last few evenings..
On 09 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Today, spring was coming (rather than going) and we managed an amazing 19˚C from around 11 - 4.30pm, which is almost unheard of in early April, sunshine all the way through and our son even saw a swallow where he was working, never seen one so early. S’ly breeze all day, not nearly as cool as yesterday so it was great. 6˚ at 7.30, still 9˚ at 9pm.
On 09 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Slight almost grass frost in places this morn but clearing quickly and another nice sunny day :) max 16/17 deg. back down to 8 now at 9 pm clear and starry again tonight.
On 09 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
A buddy in Maine reports that they had another 3 '' of snow today, with more due tonight.. This is in the mid 40s latitude at 100metre alt !
On 09 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Some amazing stories of snow and ice over on the IceAgeNow site. Weather here has been chilly breeze but very warm sun. Lots of dew and almost a frost on a couple of mornings, but we can get those kind of weather details in early June. Sort of early June type weather then!
On 09 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS Charts showing no likely very severe weather un til the 24th when a polar maritime outbreak might occur, but this is not unusual in late April or early May. Since it's GFS a volte face is not impossible. Maybe they'll report it in the Mail!!
On 08 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast morning with a passing front from the NW, some occasional sunshine in the afternoon, stiff SSE’ly sea breeze putting a damper on things again, occasional haar rolling in, max temp 13˚, clear & starry evening with 7˚ at 10pm. Spring seems to be coming and going…
On 08 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another fab sunny day, not as hot like yesterday but very warm to work in, a light breeze also this morning for a wee while.. Max temp 16/17 deg. Back to 9 now at 9.30 pm with a nice starry evening sky.
On 08 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
both GFS and MObeeb going for a cooling off at the weekend, but no sign of the Mail's 'big freeze'
On 08 Apr 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Easter weekend gradually got better as per the 45day forecast. Spot on. Enjoy the sun while it lasts as always.
On 08 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Daily Mail predicting UK cold snap as from Sunday. They will be saying nice things about Nicola Sturgeon next. Next headline will be
''Shighty weather for Mighty Blighty''
On 08 Apr 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Morning all! Hazy sunshine and morning mist slowly clearing here in central London. Looking at the GFS charts this morning, no signs of this week's heat returning after a cooldown this weekend. Winds later next week switch round to a N'ly source then NE'ly as High Pressure takes residence over Iceland. If that comes to pass then we could be staring at a disappointing April after all. Don't pin your hopes and fears on the GFS though, it's remarkably unreliable beyond 4/5 days out and changes every 6 hours!
On 07 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30 and quite cloudy with sheets of interesting looking sub mammatus cloud, or perhaps more aptly, pock-mark clouds, don’t know if they have a name. After about 10.30 am it got much brighter and considerably warmer, especially for us sorting seed in the tunnel, it was sweltering for a time. 19˚ max temp, still 8˚ at 9pm. The sea breeze got up again alright but it wasn’t quite as cold as yesterday, all in all a great day.
On 07 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
19 deg. here at 3pm blue sky hot and sunny, bullseye Piers incredible forecast skill!
On 07 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Really sunny and warm yesterday best day of the holiday wkend 16/17 deg. Looks like another nice day on the cards blue sky an sunshine, 2 nights with no heating on only a little nippy in the morn. Off out to make the most of this fine weather, cheers Russ didn't notice the update till ye mentioned it!-)
On 07 Apr 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Forecast bang on the nail - from Costa del Polytunnel.
On 07 Apr 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
What a cracker of a day was easter bank holiday Monday, thanks piers you have got this April spot on, the day was so hot that even in a Tshirt it was Very warm,
On 06 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 and a real sunny start but the mist crept in and out not long after and then the SSE’ly sea breeze started up around 10am, there was steam coming of the bare soil when the sun was strong, which it was for most of the morning, max temp 15˚, so I wasn’t as euphoric as yesterday. In the afternoon the fog almost won the battle but the end of the day was lovely and light. Still 8˚ at 9pm, some stars visible through the haze. Blackbirds now in full flow, but have hardly heard any thrushes.
On 06 Apr 2015, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
A balmy 16c / 61f here in SW Essex when the sun shone and out of the breeze, nosedived to 11c when the gloom set in around 4pm sadly. Looks like the Atlantic will try to make inroads next weekend, but not before we get a plume of dry southerlies from the near continent. Is Spring making a nervous start?
On 06 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
I agree Paddy. Piers change to a warm spell has taken place almost exactly, day to day, as he predicted it would. Have you subscribers checked out the update for April...I think you should!
On 06 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A cloudy start yesterday but by late morning it was beautiful, sunny with broken cloud for the remainder of the day but it had to be the warmest day we have had for a while, great for the egg hunt max temp 15 not as warm as Paddy had but again spot on as Piers forecast.. Blue sky and sunshine this morning feels mild although only 8 deg. @ 10.23 a.m birds singing away looks like a nice weather day to get in the garden again.
On 05 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 and feeling mild and still, sunny from the word go and by 1am it was already 14˚, by midday an astonishing 20˚! This may not be impressive for people further south but for our latitude this is astonishing for this time of year, it is early in the season for temps to reach that height, especially since yesterday’s max was 6˚. And it is certainly the first Easter in many years where we have not had our egg hunt in a gale/snow/hail/lashing rain etc., you could say it was very untypical Easter weather. Still 8˚ at 9pm, and all this bang on Piers’ forecast which says ‘mostly mild, becoming warmer’ for the present weather period. I hope I can say that without giving too much away.
On 05 Apr 2015, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & All, I made a formal complaint to the BBC last week about their Radio 4 programme The Life Scientific which stated the Antarctic was melting. I informed them that ice at Antarctica is near record levels exceeding 20 mln. sq. km.a record since 1979. Also according to PIOAS Arctic ice has been growing & is roughly back to 2006 levels. Their reply was rather bland & just what I expected, I can appeal against their answer, but what is the point? The BBC acts like a political body nowadays so mendacity is part of their culture.
On 05 Apr 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gill...re: " And why didn't MO local weather page show rain for today?" .... Have you ever worked in an office environment Gill? Holiday skeleton staff, full of chocolate & coffee, doing the conga to Farrell Williams rip-off tune "Happy", and in the case of the MO crew, wondering why the sun isn't shining when their umpty-mi££ion computer sim told them it would! Just imagine the desperation they must feel when they work with like minded fools, with the same ingratiatory attitudes, hell-bent on forcing their deluded opinions on the world (I'm thinking - soon, AGW will = Catholic inquisition of the Canadian indigenous tribes), yet every time they look out of the window across the cityscape of Exeter, they see the sheer folly of their endeavours....poor things indeed...and wrong again! We are so lucky having Piers to rely on. When the toss of a coin predicts the weather MORE ACCURATELY than the Met Office, something needs to change! Have a happy Easter folks!
On 04 Apr 2015, Gerry Surrey Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Grey and cold with a NE wind today. A bit of rain too. Not Spring-like so far this Easter. My magnolias are coming into flower which is on cue for The Masters.
On 04 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
There is a change in the air: 6˚C at 7.30, feeling milder even though we have a light N’ly breeze. Grey all day with occasional light rain in the morning, temps rising to 11˚ in the afternoon and still at 8˚ by 9.30pm, we haven’t had it this warm for a while, this is in line with the 30d forecast. Blackbirds didn’t sing quite as much as yesterday, still no song thrushes, though small birds are very active and everywhere on the farm.
On 04 Apr 2015, Andy B wrote:
I have some sad news investors in green tech will have to wait 3 to 6 years to be connected to the grid in the SW of UK
http://www.fwi.co.uk/business/renewables-in-south-west-on-hold-as-western-power-hits-grid-limit.htm
On 04 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mostly cloudy and showery yesterday, but an improvement today as dry all day though mostly cloudy, the sun has broken through on occasions feeling warm when it has, max temp 14 deg. 10 now @ 17.05 pm great to get back outside :)
On 04 Apr 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Wet and miserable Easter Saturday. What happened to spring? And why didn't MO local weather page show rain for today?
On 04 Apr 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
A nicer day here in dorset this morning much more mellow after a few days of, grey wet, and windy mix of weather and chilling wind. Now I see this morning that piers is hitting the express headlines about a mixed summer of May be very stormy periods on occasions, perhaps piers would like to elaborate on this for your supporters, it is a bit of a surprise to read it in the paper and not a word on your site piers.
On 03 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, cloudy & drizzly with S’ly wind, dreich in a word, lasted all day, max temp 6˚ & down to 5˚ by 10pm, still with a fine but revitalising drizzle. I always like to look at the positive side, and on that note I’m happy to report that the blackbirds have started singing again (are they in cahoots with Piers?), so things are on the up.
On 03 Apr 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Long front swept slowly across the US over the past several days finally crossed our area over the day today, bringing low grey cloud cover and our first April shower this afternoon. Full moon eclipse this weekend, sorry UK-Ireland-Europe, no view, see here @ http://www.spaceweather.com/images2015/02apr15/map.jpg. Very low solar activity, SF was 121 today, coronal holes moving into earth-facing position on 3rd & 4th, so w/FM it could get very interesting. One noticable sunspot, http://farside.nso.edu/oQR/fqj/201504/mrfqj150401/mrfqj150401t1200.jpg. F10.7 in March was 126.4 sfu/day, Feb/Mar were both close to SWPC "low" range, & April range is 122-134, with USAF forecast at 131, but they were 34 points too high for today as of March 28, and they seem to be overshooting often. SSTs in southern hemisphere appeared to cool since Jan, comparing http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.1.2015.gif to http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.2.2015.gif.
On 02 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C again at 7.30, no snow, just a light frost followed by a bright day until around 5pm when cloud started moving in more seriously. Max temp 11˚ with light winds coming from just about every direction of the compass throughout the day. 5˚ at 9pm, huge halo around the moon. == ‘Just Fancy That’ column from current issue of Private Eye p7, apparently culled from the Daily Express website on 26 March: “Britain set for HOTTEST Easter EVER as temps rocket to 80F in holiday heatwave.” And, same day, same website: “Hold off on the BBQ: cold spell could last until summer months.” Gee, why am I spending my money on Piers’ forecasts when I can have this for free?
On 02 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max temp 12 deg. today, mostly overcast with some showers..
On 02 Apr 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well after a good review of marches forecast i calculated a75% strike rate for piers so hats off to you well worth the cost lets see if april hits the mark ...i suggest buy for those who love to know whats gonna happen just hope the headlines are hit .those in the know ,know what i mean
On 02 Apr 2015, C View wrote:
Lots of new snow for Easter skiers in Scotland. See photo here https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152690689080986&set=o.111429118884878&type=1
On 02 Apr 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Well that was an interesting March. It came in as a Lion, and went out as a Hyena!
On 01 Apr 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚ at 7.30, light dusting of snow which disappeared by 9am, strong NW’ly wind all day, quite sunny most of the time, max temp 7˚, back down to 0˚ by 10pm under a clear sky. == Horn tooting big time here, Gill :-)
On 01 Apr 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max 11 deg. today 10 now at 21.20 pm feels cooler & still a bit breezy but not as gusty as previous days, overcast with some showers, interesting April forecast..
On 01 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Star Ledger newspaper for New Jersey USA looking at snowfall over the next few days
On 01 Apr 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
April showers bring may flowers.
When April blows its horn. 'Tis good for hay and corn.
On 01 Apr 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
chilly bright morning with a dusting of snow on the ground. It's not April fooling me into thinking 'it's over' For those who might be interested in Younger Dryas ice cover, herewith a url
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/s0350775/QRA_08_NRG.pdf
On 31 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 and another day of strong WNW’ly winds, though quite sunny for much of the time, max temp 9˚, occasional hail showers but nothing dramatic, 1˚ at 9.30pm and still windy. == Thrushes & blackbirds still silent, I think they really don’t like the cold that Piers correctly forecast. Typical Easter weather.
On 31 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Star Ledger newspaper for New Jersey USA looking at snowfall over the next few days
On 31 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wind n rain was going for it all night long gusty stormy ole weather, tiles rattling wind blowin against the house, felt like you was at sea lol, watched movies till 3 a.m as could not sleep was too balmy, still blowin a hoolie today some rain hail and some sun on occasions with it, 9 deg. Now at 17.26 but feels cooler with the nw wind obviously..
On 31 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Snow showers now more intense almost mini-blizzards and settling down to 170 metres.
C View my colleague and I often refer to this weather pattern as 'Younger Dryas weather' as the pattern of snow distribution miirors the YD glacier area.
On 31 Mar 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Just got blown around Canary Wharf during my lunch hour. Very windy out there still. If you click on the Animation tab of xcweather.co.uk you will see how the winds have gained strength during the day, not lost it. Unsurprisingly we're in a R4 period right now. While I think of it - KUDOS TO YOU PIERS for March. Absolutely nailed it after a winter of discontent. Congratulations on SLAT 12, it's definitely an improvement! The next few months looks 'interesting'. Subscribe! :-)
On 31 Mar 2015, C View wrote:
Ron I would agree even here on the Clyde coast there are very few signs of spring. One observation I have made is that the hills of South Argyllshire that I can see from the house most of which are less than 3000ft the highest one I can see is Ben Ime at 3006 ft I reckon have had more days with snow cover than without since mid January. The real significance of this is that it is the south facing slopes that I am looking at. Last couple of days here have been very wintry with high winds violent squally showers with rain hail and sleet
On 31 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
....and boy did it rain yesterday! Hammered it down with horizontal rain and buffeting gales from Glasgow all the way home to soggy Derbysheepshire. It still amazes me how Scot's cope with inclement weather. I was having trouble writing on my clip-board after 4 minutes and was hiding out of the blast of the wet wind, but the security guy just stood there as if it were a sunny day, completely oblivious to the fact that we were being battered by a storm. Total respect! When I quipped that this was classed as fine weather for a Scot, he just smiled and replied, " well aye, it's not that bad today really..."! Horizontal rain, difficult to walk into the wind and 4C. Factor in the wind-chill and ... well sheeesh! Glasgow .. a proper city-scape .. very beautiful.
On 31 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
heavy snow showers in blustery winds now coming in. Not settling at this altitude ( 140m)
On 31 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG.M : After the record cold spring of 2013 and the record warm one of 2014, this one seems to be, at least up here, in a kind of suspended .animation.
On 30 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 and feeling pretty chilly in the strong W’ly wind which blew until mid afternoon when it started turning into the SW with the approaching Atlantic Low which brought us quite a bit of rain. Quite sunny morning but only 9˚ max because of the wind, 4˚ by 9.30pm in the rain which has been continuous since 6pm. == BOB, thanks, looking forward to the launch!
On 30 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Just started to snow again here at 19.55 hrs Monday. This is at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire.
On 30 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Been busy of late but very pleased with the Mar forecast. From the waaay ahead perspective especially. Planned planting around it and done me well. (av. Spring signs of growth so far but compared to prev years odd - doing a post based on my comment about this time last year which will explain better). Hail yesterday and a gale that lasted almost 24hrs. Very well predicted Piers but pressure patterns were not right (west winds not east). May+June forecast most interesting & will affect planting. Subscribe people. //
Clock changes - from Piers last year & includes a video. IMO a stupid artefact of wars no longer applicable (BST screws my bodyclock every year, I find BST easier to deal with) ===
http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/daylight-saving-time-how-is-this-still-a-thing/ === I'm taking a deeper look at a few things & will pass on when ready. A few years standing out again.
On 30 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy dull wet & windy, max 12 deg damp orrible weather, not good diet weather + running indoors not quite the same as the great outdoors, bleurgh! Please come back spring..
On 30 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
SUB HIGH PEAK.
Hail storm during the night,followed by sleet showers.Cold now, temp. 5 degrees with wind chill 1.5. Dry for now , with the occasional burst of sunshine ,but rain expected later.
On 30 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
I quite agree with you on the clock change Piers, it was back to my torch this morning, Friday morning it was the sun that lit the way, now back to dark, maddening.
Oh and the weather is spot on as you forcast. Well done, April fools day Wednesday,the politicians start the race to enslave us again.
On 30 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
snow lying here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire with light showers still flaking away.
On 30 Mar 2015, Matt Havicon wrote:
I live in Rīgā , Latvia and the last few days have been consistently colder than the forecasts predicted, even on the same day! Some days 3 degrees colder. This morning I have awoken to steady snow when then forecast was for rain and 8 degrees! Just a thought- the climate of our planet has historically always "changed" therefore alarmists using the words "climate change" actually infers that, instead of being variable, our climate has changed to a constant. This therefore is their admittance that there is no AGW!. ....Matt, Rīgā.
On 30 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
7.7 quake near Papua New Guinea http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/67551264/magnitude-77-quake-hits-near-papua-new-guinea Right in the middle of an R4
On 29 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚Cat 7.30, pretty cloudy most of the day, some impressive cumulonimbus, thus a few rainshowers in the afternoon in a generally light and W’ly airflow, max temp 11˚ with intermittent warm sunshine, down to 4˚ by 10pm. There must have been some hail showers in places, saw the remnants of them earlier tonight. The overall feel is still cold.
On 29 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Clock change? ppftttpemtfxf and that's all I have to say on the matter!
On 29 Mar 2015, danny wrote:
The winds down here in East Sussex
are really starting to pick up, and its apparently
going to get even stronger later on this afternoon.
BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES LOL.
Hello to Piers and all W A SUPPORTERS,
best wishes, Danny and his Lurcher dogs...
On 29 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday max 11 deg. Windy wet and the yellow wind warning up for some has today been updated to include us too, getting gusty now at 9.49 a.m 11 deg with rain on and off, clock changes.. what a waste of time! Forecast has been fantastic this month a great guide for growing, spinach lettuce pakchoi beetroot radish and carrot seedlings all up in the tunnel, held back on outside crops till next forecast, tomato cucumber plants and cabbage indoors getting first true leaves and chili seedlings just coming up, no sign of asparagus outside as yet but rhubarb is beginning to make a comeback..
On 29 Mar 2015, Gerry Surrey Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Sunny Friday and quite pleasant. Windy yesterday with some light rain. Cool. Good piece on mental UK energy policy by Booker in Telegraph. NOAA trying to charge over $200k for simple FOI information.
On 28 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 and raining pretty hard until about midday, wind SW’ly to start with, then W’ly for the rest of the day and pretty strong in the afternoon, almost gale force. Brighter from midday with good spells of sunshine in the afternoon, 4˚ by 9pm. == !@£ing clock change, dontcha hate it? Anyone here has anything good to say about it? In a French poll this week only 19% of respondents were favourable to the practice, but it’s now so routine that it would be difficult to change.
On 28 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Hi Paddy. Thank you. My site isn't up yet... I've been working on the layout for months, and it's nearly done (with that part). There are many different articles that I've been researching on top of that, and wrapping it all up into a cohesive whole is my goal, long overdue I might add. The more research I do, the more work gets created, and the longer it all takes. I'll let you all know when it's ready. Piers has a few of the plots on his home page that I use too. This morning it was 8F here, and -8F in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, making us the coldest area in the US. Most of the active weather from the week has blown out to the Atlantic. Piers' last forecast period of March is looking good, as TWC today is calling for similar weather. The one earth-facing sunspot group is rotating into geoeffective position on time for the R4. Will we see solar flares? If the USAF April solar flux forecast average of 123 holds, it will be just above the SWPC "low" prediction of 120 sfu/day.
On 28 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Sleety rain here at 140 metres, Highland Perthshire, with snow settling to about 300 metres.
On 28 Mar 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Forecast bang on at the moment.
On 27 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Complete change again today: strong sunshine with some cloud, 3˚C at 7.30, W - SW winds, 11˚ max, 3˚ again by 8.30pm. Drying up nicely in the wind, helped by the growing sun. So far so good for this spring. == BOB W, greatly appreciate your reports, even if I don’t understand everything. Could you remind me again of the URL of your website, thanks.
On 27 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Not as bad yesterday as previous day, a few more sunnier spells and temp reached 11 deg. But it still felt cooler with the nw breeze, changed to S'ly today and mostly cloudy, some brief sunny spells at times, 9 deg. at 11.47 chilly though...
On 27 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers' USA Mar19-22 worked out well, as over a foot of snow fell in Wisconsin; snow also fell in Minnesota and Chicago area too. Rain-T-storms in mid-eastern states, and very warm in SW states, per forecast. Cold dropped in from Canada right on time too, wiping out a early-month brief warm-up, cold that coinicided with F10.7cm solar flux dropping to 109 on the 19th. Flux now back in the 130s, expected to stay near there at least until end of March, with monthly average to be near the "low" SWPC March prediction of ~125. Current forecast period working out extremely well except for OK tornadoes. Thunderstorms in all the right areas across S-SE states, lots of lightning too and very warm in the south. March 17 solar impact and beyond have pushed that polar vortex south again and we've been cold up here in northern states ever since. Great widespread winds all week at frontal boundary; TWC calling for large hail - no sign of it yet. On/off rain/snow here last two days and colder.
On 26 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Drastic change from yesterday: rain from 7am in a cold S’ly wind, 3˚ at 7.30, heavy until about 11 when the fronts passed eastward, feeling really cold even though it got to 7˚. Dryer afternoon, some late showers, by evening the wind had turned into the NW, 4˚ at 9.30pm. == Interestingly, the thrushes have stopped singing completely for the last 3 days, could be the cold?
On 26 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
Sub High Peak.
Woke up to a covering of snow this morning,the car was covered with snow.Slushy now at 12.00,with rain.
On 26 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Mix of rain, sleet and wet snow here at 140metres, with snowline about 175-200 metres. Dreich.
On 25 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
White with frost this morning, 0˚C overnight, 2˚ at 7.30 under a blue sky, NW’ly breeze, changing to SSE sea breeze by abut 10am and then gradually turning into the NE by late afternoon. Max temp 11˚, warmer in full sun. 3˚ at 9.30pm, clouds streaming across the sky from the SW, stars partly visible. We’ll see how much tomorrow’s forecast rain is going to affect us. == RON: the only leaves partly visible so far are on flowering currents (planted for the bumble bees in spring) and bird cherry. If your maples are sprouting under a cloche they must be small seedlings, yes?
On 25 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Dull damp rainy day max temp 7deg. 5 now at 19.52 pm raining again and a little windy S'ly 34 kph approx.
On 25 Mar 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Down here in Wiltshire on my golf course the soil temps are struggling, around 5 most mornings so hardly any growth. Mowers in the sheds, sleet yesterday.
On 25 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian MO going for a cold start to April, at least in Scotland.
On 25 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for a chilly end to the month and a warm start to April.
PADDY: my Sugar Maple and Norway Maple ( cloche) are starting to sprout and the Aronia, not under cover, have already leafed out. Oregon Maple still sound asleep.
On 25 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday 1 deg. @ 7.30 a.m grey and showers some of hail later in the day, the odd sunny spell n partly cloudy for a time, max 7 feelin cooler with the nw breeze, starry night, frost this morning 0 deg with some sunshine a bit parky!
On 24 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C overnight, slight frost, 3˚ by 7.30, bright start with some cloud but then a splendidly sunny morning, possible to work without a jacket in the light NW’ly breeze. However, after midday the wind abated and there was a beefy hail shower with about 6mm granules, and after an hour’s interlude there was another one, this time heavier and longer because there was no wind to move it along. Max temp 13˚, would have been higher but for the showers. 1˚ by 9.30pm, saw a gritter out on the road earlier tonight. == 30d forecast does specifically say hail for the present period!
On 24 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Daytime temp 6-8c. hail 3.45pm
On 24 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
Sub High Peak.It's been snowing here too.Spot on Piers. 5 degrees only.
On 24 Mar 2015, Matt wrote:
Snowing in Sheffield right now.
The whole office got up and ran to the window like they'd never seen snow before!
Right on Piers!
On 24 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
LORRAINE: aye, the pour souls in the eastern USA and Canada are getting stuffed by the continuing winter. My buddy in Maine was almost happy that it reached 0 Fahrenheit yesterday after weeks below that.
On 23 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30 and feeling quite mild, but then the NW’ly wind got going and it felt like back to winter again for a couple of hours. But eventually, the sun won through and we had a pleasant day though only 12˚ max. 3˚ by 9.30 pm under a starry sky, the new moon looking for all the world like the sun in full eclipse last Friday.
On 23 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Weather change today grey start 6 deg. 7.30 a.m felt cooler all day with the odd shower of drizzly rain, a break in clouds with sunny spells this aft. max temp 9 deg. light nw wind for a time early eve. 6 deg. n starry now 21.18pm
On 23 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// well my friends in Chicago have face booked it's snowing there at this time - Chicago USA
On 23 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Frost- outdoor cats sleeping inside last night.
On 22 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max temp 12/13 deg yesterday, lovely sunshine blue sky all day and feeling quite warm, starry clear night with frost overnight and fog clearing quickly this morn. Another nice day again after a nippy start 2 deg @ 8 a.m 12 max later, more cloud around today but still good long spells of sunshine, 7 and partly cloudy now 21.56 pm
On 22 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast sky, light rain showers which petered out by mid morning, SW’ly breeze and feeling much milder than of late, 13˚ max, which is the highest temp we’ve had so far this year if I’m not mistaken. No open sky but nice blue clouds nevertheless, one of my favourite weather moods. 7˚ by 8.30pm.
On 22 Mar 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well a lot of topsy turvy weather here in (Today ) sunny corby 1 day dank n cold another warm and sunny never seen it so up n down
On 22 Mar 2015, Geoff wrote:
Seems to me that the interesting Climate/Weather areas are not the N Atlantic-W Europe but N America (how long will the deep cold last into what is normally the Spring? Nigel Calder's 70s concerns about loss of wheat acreage was driven by the timing of the spring on the prairies) and the Pacific (what further mischief does the Sun have in store as we edge into the New Minimum-if that is what is happening of course!?). Rather too complex for the Warmists with their models built on Goal Seek methinks. For the Policy 'Makers' presumably renewed shrieks for windfarms, only now needed to keep us warm in the coming Cold?? And calls for penitence and prayer from the Archbishes no doubt, since, as Heinz Kiosk was wont to say, 'We Are All Guilty'
On 21 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast and cold in sharp N’ly breeze which gradually turned into the NE as the day wore on. Sunshine from about 10am and then a beautiful sunny cold day, archtypical early spring with winter still discernible in the wind. 3˚ by 8.30pm == Our song thrushes here are going wild, if you stand anywhere near them their song is ear splitting; blackbirds only every now and then, they’ll come into full flow later. Bullfinches feeding on the new buds of the many cherry plums we had planted, for just that purpose it seems. See a woodcock regularly in our wood (where else?) and signs of active badgers: rabbit warrens dug up, all the nesting material out & the little bunnies in Brock’s stomach, no doubt. We live in a zoo :-)
On 21 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Got up early for the sunrise this morn. Well worth it beautiful to see the surrounding sky and some clouds colour all peachy and orange, steaks of white clouds here n there, birds sound happy this morning as am I, great way to wake up! 6 deg. But feels cooler at 6.52 a.m ..
On 20 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, feeling mild even in the NW’ly breeze. We had ideal conditions for watching the first half of the eclipse, it was cloudy but thinning enough from time to time to be able to look at it with bare eyes. Using pinhole glasses was also quite successful once one got used to it. Second half was completely obscured; the mood at maximum stage was really particular. The one in 1999 was somewhat more spectacular in that it was July and the contrast between light and dark much greater. Max temp 12˚, the sun really has power now. Occasionally strong gusts of NW wind, a few showers late afternoon and evening, 6˚ by 10pm. Spring is about to start, equinox at 10.45pm.
On 20 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A really cloudy start and although we didn't get to see the eclipse here, it was nice drinking tea out watching it getting a little darker, birds sat in their usual eclipse way in the trees sounding confused, nice to sit still listen n feel the cool quiet surroundings of it.. A small bit of drizzle beforehand but by around lunch time it had turned into a loverly bright sunny day with some cloud about and temp max 12 deg. Partly cloudy and 7 deg now at 20.50 pm
On 20 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
There's some weird polar sequence goes on, something along the lines of, when the Arctic ice is plentiful, there's a corresponding drop in Antarctic ice and vice versa. Lots of theories around, mostly overlap each other, but I believe it's a pretty long cycle. So you only get to see one peak in a lifetime. Pure propaganda to make a point of low Arctic ice. Which doesn't surprise me actually, as all the snow this winter has fallen farther south. I wonder if Alfred uses LED light bulbs in his mansion? I guess if it got buried in 20 foot snow drifts, he would just turn up the heating, open all the windows, and melt it all!
On 20 Mar 2015, ron greer wrote:
KEITH: I wonder how many people in New England and the Canadian Maritimes are devout believers in GW after the last 2 winters?
On 20 Mar 2015, keith wrote:
So again The BBC GW machine in full hype mode,Tturned the news on first article Record low Arctic Ice ,no mention of the record cold in Antarctic, so again hype is fooling the public and GW nonsense will get billions more funding .http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749.
On 20 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
rus- govt capital projects follow the donations/personal relations or relatives/hopes for cushy jobs after parliament. Transferring wealth from the many to the few. If they have any benefit to the people its pure accident. Hence PFI and the endless failed computer projects and MOD world class bungles that cost billions. I remember one report about how a proposed new road widening just 'happened' to be near the second home of one of those proposing it. Private eye is full of that kind of stuff.
On 20 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Looks like the government are expecting a lot of ice and snow in the near future. Why else would they build a new road tunnel under the Peak District, I can only guess, as part of the £12-19 billion cross pennine routes planned. Why not re-open the old Woodhead rail tunnel. Already electrified. The infrastructure is there. Upgrade the signals and switch on. Yes I know it's not that simple but recycling old lines is a great idea and one which I hope the government are hell-bent on achieving. >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31978631 << Or is this just more government lies. Like Gordon Brown telling us they were going to be spending £85 billion building the best road network in Europe over the following 10 years, when in reality, £65 billion was already earmarked for the roads. So only £20 billiextra. But they can't even be bothered filling in potholes in the existing network. We can hope!
On 19 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, reasonably bright with a light S - SW’ly breeze, clouding over pretty quickly though, max temp just about 12˚. Felt hot while working, so jacket off, but anytime I stopped the breeze made me feel cold in a short time. Dry all day, light drizzle after 9pm, still 7˚ at 10pm, so a definite change to milder conditions.
On 19 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
quite a big disparity in the GFS and MObeeb projections. GFS showing cold northerly plunge over Sweden at the weekend, but MObeeb going for westerlies ( and for us)
On 19 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Bob Weber..... hath thou spotted this here magnetic earth monitoring thingy before? Very useful. >> http://geomag.usgs.gov/map/#storm/18 <<. Skies clearing here but misty again. The breeze should pick up overnight but with this high pressure in check, ithe morning sky could do one of two things, either the breeze carrying warmer air will condense lots of cloud, or the air will have lost humidty by the time it reaches us, and will blow the mist and cloud away.
On 19 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Cloudy, northerly wind, cold, - need a warm fleece and woolly hat when outside. Winter's back!
On 19 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
cold as forecast 45 days ago. The fog has become smog Talking of smog the very dense ones i remember from the 60s when the only way to walk down the road in London was to use the edge of the kerb as a tramrail.
On 19 Mar 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well it is so cold here in murky corby ........temp says 7 i say nearer freezing .........more like mid winter than earlyish spring
On 19 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Beautiful day sunshine and blue sky yesterday max temp 11 deg. but felt too warm to wear a jumper working for a couple of hours, this weather has been good for me to get clearing my flower gardens over half way done already which is great as never got time last year, managed to all get dinner outside before it cooled right down, starry night and widespread frost -1 early this morn. foggy but some blue sky and sun already, 2deg at 8.34 a.m
On 19 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Lorraine... Island populations are usually held in check by food supply. No food, does not a large population make! With external supplies of processed foods, this has changed over the past 80 years, pushing up indigenous populations to abnormal levels. So when the innevitable storms hit, more people will probably die. Maybe the islanders should be helped to build their homes into the ground, or at least streamline their design to help storm-proof them. Even tin sheet can be strong, depending how it's used. It's useless charging companies 'carbon taxes' but leaving the islanders in cube shaped wooden shacks with tin roofs. Maybe Mr Gore, if he really cares that much, should invest a few of his many mi$$ions in new, 'sustainable' housing schemes for the islanders? Don't we see the same pointless mentality in the US tornado zones, where the houses are still made from wood? Remember the three little pigs story.... "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house down"! Reality check!
On 19 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Russ, whilst the populations may have increased in some of the pacific islands you can't state carte blanche that this and perceived prosperity from living through a warm period are the contributors to the higher toll from Cyclone Pam. Most of the pacific islands don't, and never had a prosperous economy - one of the reasons why they're always seeking help from New Zealand and Australia. In our region we have a scheme to employ workers from Vanuatu (and the Solomon Islands) on a temporary basis in our orchards and this gives them a chance to earn some much needed money which they send back to their families because they can't earn much at home. They can't afford to build concrete buildings (brick is not a construction material used in the islands) hence the reason for living in what we would call shacks. The devastation from the cyclone would have been equally severe if there had been a population half the size in Vanuatu. Lives lost are lives lost.
On 18 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Foggy start, 0˚C at 7.30 and the fog beginning to lift slowly, very sunny by 9am and until about 2pm when cloud started moving in again. A warm day with 12˚ max, spring feeling but still with a coolish undertow. Around 5.30 the fog suddenly started rolling in, a real pea souper, especially in the Dee valley, but it cleared again by 10pm away from the river, 1˚ at this time.
On 18 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// NASA site saying two enormous coronal holes on the sun - it's certainly active up there just now
On 18 Mar 2015, east side wrote:
FYI, Aurora was so strong in Eastern Russia yesterday it was visible as far southern Ural, Moscow region and Tula, some of it brightly overhead.
Estonia, Finland & Sweden had a rare treat.
KP values of 8-9 are rare in this part of the world.
On 18 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some aurora seen in Donegal and Galway I believe yesterday. Really thick fog here this morning orange alert was in place for it too, sun trying to get through and only a couple of degrees at the mo, looks like a nice day for outside in a bit..
On 18 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// apparently the aurora was seen as far south as Channel Islands last night although from the coast I went out in the garden but coud not see anything - how long do these solar flare s last hitting the atmosphere, actually after being in Norway they seem to come beteeen 9 and 12
On 18 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy...we have had freezing mist overnight and a hard frost this morning, so we didn't get to see any aurora. Spaceweather aurora overlay, late last night, showed powerful aurora as far south as the Scottish Borders...... Gill... thanks for the info. We remember a couple of years ago, no matter what month we were out walking we saw lambs born during every month from March through to October. Maybe several local farmers were carrying out experiments, to see if lambs could be successfully reared outside the normal season? I couldn't believe my eyes when we kept on seeing tiny new lambs so late in the year. Can't remember the exact year though. Had a new job this past year so no time to go walking, so no new observations.... Lorraine... The devastation in the Pacific Islands is more severe, with more people homeless, simply because the population is far higher than in the past, because the peoples have lived through a warm period and so prospered. Also, hardly a brick building in sight!
On 17 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
NZ was relatively unscathed from Cyclone Pam as it went south east and mainly affected the Chatham Islands. Much colder overnight temps though and today's high here only likely to be about 18 (down about 4 deg from what we've been averaging the last few days).
On 17 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another grey day, though it felt milder even in only 5˚C at 7.30 because there was barely any wind. It only got up very gradually, starting in the SE and backing into the NE later on. Max temp was 8˚ and there was a short brighter spell in the afternoon, just a lighter shade of grey or a whiter shade of pale :-) Still again in the evening, 3˚ at 8.30pm with the fog lifting, a few stars appearing, notably Jupiter, so there might yet be a chance to see the Northern Lights (of Old Aberdeen - I’m in a musical mood tonight).
On 17 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some mist over the fields this morning 5 deg at 9 a.m cloudy to begin, some variable sky with a little sunshine getting through on occasions later in the day, felt a little milder nice day to be out, some nice clouds too, reaching 9 for a while then back down to 4 deg. now @ 19.45 pm
On 17 Mar 2015, Rohan wrote:
Since then, however, the storm has intensified to G4-class (Kp=8), ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. This storm is underway now.
The above report from space weather.
Wondering if this is an R5 that got away...
On 17 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
This morning we’re undergoing a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Oulu cosmic rays are sharply down right now. The IMF was 35nT a few minutes ago, with Bz as high as -28nT during that spike and 600km/s solar wind. ACE Protons and electrons are elevated (see Piers' home page plots) Hemispheric power at both poles went from 9 GW to 90 GW very quickly, triggering auroras down to the US-Canadian border (hemispheric power is a function of solar wind speed & density).
http://www.solarham.net/ said this morning “CME Impact: Ground based magnetometers detected a geomagnetic sudden impulse (54 nT @ Boulder) at 04:35 UTC." All right on time for Piers' R4. Colder Canadian air filtered in upper plains states yesterday, 30 degree drop is some parts, wind chills now in the teens there, with a wide area of 25-35 mph winds just north of frontal boundary that is presently skirting along the south edge of Piers' current USA forecast active weather area. Another spot on USA forecast from Piers Corbyn ;)
On 16 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, rain early morning, a few very light showers throught the day, more rain in the evening. Max temp 6˚, grey and overcast all day in the SE’ly regime that we are now stuck with, cold air coming from the Continent where this kind of wind is known as la bise in France and Switzerland, where it is a cold & dry E - NE wind often accompanied by cloudless skies; with us it comes across the North Sea and often brings a lot of cloud, as just now. 5˚ at 8pm.
On 16 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max temp 7 deg. today & remained cloudy grey and on the cool side, 4 now @ 19.10 pm
On 16 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Russ - forgot to say that the season begins in December with the Dorset - the one breed that can lamb twice in one season. Those lambs are the ones that will catch the Easter market. generally most flocks will have finished lambing by June - maybe July to catch the autumn markets and for the Ewes to be in good enough condition for the rams to go in to the flock October onwards to start the whole process again - takes 5 months.
On 16 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Russ, We've been lambing for about three weeks; but we lamb indoors as most farmers will at this time of year if they can - and probably do. Too risky to lamb outside this early. Remember those news pics of years ago with farmers digging sheep and lambs out of snowdrifts? The survival rate is greater as you can be on hand at night -when most ewes seem to lamb - if there are problems. If we have the room - and we do at present , thanks to the building that was destroyed in the fire having been rebuilt just in the nick of time; we turn lambs out in the day and bring them back in at night until they can cope with the weather. You will start to see lambs a plenty in the fields once we get into April. And a ewes lambs when it's ready to lamb.
On 16 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Indeed Piers, those cyclones were definitely electric weather events caused by the solar flares over the past week, that powered up the ionosphere, drawing the diamagnetic already solar-warmed water upwards into the atmosphere, as we discussed at EU2014. How many times do we need to see these scenarios play out before the rest of the world catches on? Prediction: John Kerry will soon be in Vanatu, blaming these powerful storms on "man-made global warming" blah, blah, blah.... This nonsense has to stop. More and more people around the world are catching on to the true nature of the universe, the electric, magnetic, electromagnetic universe, ie, the Electric Universe. Russ - good point - Saturn's polar vortex is matched by several other planets too, and all for the same reason. Protons are rising right now - feel it? - more electric weather conditions - proton density from 14 to 20 per cubic centimeter this morning, fairly high (see GOES13 proton flux plot on Piers' home page).
On 16 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
Vanuatu cyclone.....Listening to the BBC radio this morning the news bulletin,s gradually turned to saying that it was down to global warming of that area and that the seas in the Pacific had been warming. Tosh. It has been cold here with grey sky for what seems ages spitting rain today 7c at 4pm. Looking forward to Friday's eclipse.
On 16 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Usual Vanatu is due to co2 which is just a device for getting money from 'the polluters'. co2 is just device for getting mon ey from brainwashed people who think they should be 'guilty'
On 16 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
CITIZENS - Cyclone PAM and Vanatu - actually one of THREE powered up in Australasia region by the X2 flare etc 11th etc and consequent R4 period - see home page. === BOB WEBER these sort of 'predictors' you mention might make sense in terms of a common solar cause causing one and then the other later OR it is coincidence - there are lots of 'coincidences' when one looks! The appearance or not btw of Siberian High / Low under Major/Top Red periods normally depends of tropical stratospheric winds: West => Low, East => High generally.
On 16 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More on Cyclone http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67410329/cyclone-pam-hits-new-zealandPam now downgraded and affecting NZ . @Russ, the cyclone has devastated Vanuatu so its a bit more than giving it "a good hiding". People in the low lying flat pacific islands like Vanuatu have nowhere to shelter so are pretty defenceless against cyclones.
On 15 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold in the early part of last night -1 but slight rise in temp and cloud cover prevented frost. Cloudy and dry all day today Sunday, felt cold and max temp 6 deg.
On 15 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, wall to wall blue sky, splendid morning. In spite of the light but sharp & cold SE’ly breeze, temps in sheltered spots got up to 9˚. More cloud in the afternoon, but still good sunshine in between, a bracing day as the saying has it. 4˚ at 9.30pm under a cloudy sky.
On 15 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Bob.... I believe the same polar vortex can be seen in the clouds over Saturns poles, hexagonal in shape too. I'd like to see the Met Office experts(?) explain that one with CO2 levels! Plasma physicists understand but the ignorance of the CO2 folk is on the same level as blind faith, with a 100% acceptance of doctrine, even making DEATH(?) threats, publicly, by eminent scientists and members of state alike, toward anyone who doesn't believe in their theories. Is there a difference between the threats coming from ISIS and the threats made by the believers of 'man made climate disruption', as they now like to call it? I think this term is the most accurate to date, because at least it focusses on the main theme of the global warmers, that its our fault. But surely then, Global Warming must be God's fault, because he/she/it deliberately made us sinners in the first place...true or false? The Pagan's were much closer to the truth because they worshipped THE SUN....and knew of it's power.
On 14 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
con't >> The idea that Siberian snow cover in the fall predicates the later polar vortex action is on the face of it LAUGHABLE. Maybe he's right and I just don't get it (yet?). From all the observations and research I've done, the polar vortex is a product of the solar wind interaction with our magnetosphere, and is intimately related to solar activity. Every SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event this winter and last was preceded by a solar impulse. Perhaps the truth is that what is really causing Fall Siberian snowfall also is related to SSW conditions, ie solar influence. But since I haven't spent one second studying Siberian snowfall records, that's a WAG. The article discussed winters 2002/03 & 03/04, which were the solar max years of SC23, as 2013/14 & 14/15 were SC24 cycle max years, and the weather situations were similar in the NH. Like everything else, we're all still learning new things, and maybe Cohen is on to something - time will tell. >> It's snowing here now!
On 14 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Craig, short of taking a bath today to verify your childhood science wave machine theory, which IIRC, that was what I did too WAY back in the day... Cheifio's article was really great, and certainly, given the paucity of good ideas in climate "science", his explanation is pretty good. As for Judan Cohen, I didn't find the link for this winter. Here http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/intro.jsp is an overview of his research, "Researchers have validated a new weather prediction model that uses autumn snowfall to predict winter cold in the United States and Europe. When snowfall is high in Siberia, the resulting cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances, which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere, or stratosphere, warming the polar vortex. When the polar vortex warms, the jet stream is pushed south leading to colder winters across the eastern United States and Europe. Conversely, under these conditions the Arctic will have a warmer than average winter." >>
On 14 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 and a really cold SE’ly breeze which continued all day; although light the feel of the day was terribly cold, what with all the moisture coming off the North Sea, we haven’t had these conditions for quite a while. Max temp 7˚ and a chilly 2˚ at 8pm, no sun at all until 4 pm when the clouds started clearing somewhat from the west. == Russ: the crocuses we are seeing now could be last year’s :-) They were later this year, in recent warm winters they have been appearing around the 2nd week of Feb.
On 14 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
A thought...going back to the bath analogy I used a while back. As a refresher I said imagine sitting in a bath and making wakes with both hands. When waves collide they can make the wave bigger (two waves travelling in the same direction) or smaller if they counteract (opposite directions-effectively cancelling each other out). Something Chiefio discussed a while back was the Arctic gyre (the Arctic is a deep basin but only really gets water from the Atlantic as the water is quite shallow on the Pacific side. === https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/05/04/arctic-flushing-and-interglacial-melt-pulses/ === When you time your bath waves right water slops over the side-I always did that as a kid! Now think of the seasonal waves. If the forces are timed right a push can enhance or inhibit those seasonal waves. I say this as Judah Cohen recently mentioned how the current hemispheric pattern resembles mid winter (Jan) not spring. (low solar?) Bob/Piers/all - any thoughts?
On 14 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Looks like the recent solar hiccups have given Vanuatu a good hiding! ........ Peoples driving on Friday was absolutely atrocious, in fact throughout the week driving quality has been scary to say the least, as multiple CME's hit us. What is it they say, correlation does not prove cause, but unrelenting repetition of the same event coincidences cannot be ignored. Lets face it, the global warmers use correlation as proof of global warming all the time, but most of the time they just fiddle, tinker and tamper with the data BEFORE they find those correlations. I don't tamper, I just observe, all the time, then find the correlativeness in my observations...
On 14 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Stayed nice and sunny all day yesterday max temp 10 deg. lots of progress clearing up outside from winter, temp dropped quite quickly by eve. clear night with lots of stars and 0 deg by midnight. Quite a sharp frost and only just 2 deg. Now @ 9.38 a.m only 6 in the Polytunnel, bright and sunny start with some streaks of cloud about another good day for being outside, but thanks to Piers March forecast I haven't got ahead of myself re planting or sowing outside in the nice weather as it would have been an epic fail! One of my clematis is hanging in there after the frost the last two nights having grown a good bit recently.
On 14 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Stayed nice and sunny all day yesterday max temp 10 deg. lots of progress clearing up outside from winter, temp dropped quite quickly by eve. clear night with lots of stars and 0 deg by midnight. Quite a sharp frost and only just 2 deg. Now @ 9.38 a.m only 6 in the Polytunnel, bright and sunny start with some streaks of cloud about another good day for being outside, but thanks to Piers March forecast I haven't got ahead of myself re planting or sowing outside in the nice weather as it would have been an epic fail! One of my clematis is hanging in there after the frost the last two nights having grown a good bit recently.
On 14 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
When do you see the crocus Paddy? Around September in Aberdeen? I was in Perth Wednesday and all the snow at lower levels of high ground has gone, due to the heavy rain in the far north. The Cumbrian hills still have tiger stripes of snow hidden away in gullies, out of the sun. I wonder if solar activity plays a big role in spring starting, because everything really did BURST out over the past few days. If it was gradual warming, wouldn't everything appear more linearly? The multiple solar flares over the past week may have had an effect. Perhaps plants sense the magnetic wobbles when the effects of solar flares hit our planet, because there's a greater chance of wet ground when this occurs. The birds probably react in the same way. Observe bird-song on sunny but low solar activity days, then watch very carefully during upticks of solar activity, and see if the birds go wild, because something gets them extra happy, and suddenly, unless its the local police incinerating marijuana.
On 14 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More on Cyclone Pam in Vanuatu http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/67366444/cyclone-pam-hits-vanuatu-it-was-terrifying. Now heading towards NZ tomorrow supposedly downgrading but will it with the incoming R4 and the effects of the X2.2 flare?
On 13 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast and still to begin with, then slight breeze ranging from SE - NE over the whole day, nevertheless got to 9˚ max, which was surprising as there was really no sun to speak of. Still 5˚ at 10pm. == I notice that the thrushes have started to sing almost a month later than last year, the blackbirds have also only just started.
On 13 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Lambs...hmmmm! I've not seen any yet, but I have noticed that the lambing season, some years, has stretched from March to October. So do the ewes wait until it's warm enough? Can they hold on for a week or two if needed? Gill....some expert info from your good self would be appreciated on the matter. The crocusses all seemed to bloom on the same day up here. Yesterday there were flowers and catkins and bird song, so I reckon this spring has certainly gone twang. Of course, this being the UK, we are probably in for 20 feet of snow in May! No...don't laugh...just look at Italy on the Ice Age Now site. Some parts just had 8 feet of snow in 18hrs. The snow blowers gave up trying to clear the narrow streets as there was nowhere to blow the snow.
On 13 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// I see Skywalk on Internet is warning about this Solar Flare - expect the northern lights to be good in the next 3 days or so I expect
On 13 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THHANKS ALL FOR COMMS AND OBS AND BOB WEBER for your excellent reports on USA! === ALL NOTICE Home page - The free extra forecast for all subs and ALL DEALS END TONIGHT around 2400 GMT (or updating time not long after) so please get in there and pass this info on!
On 13 Mar 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers' "DRAMATIC SW (WARM)/NE (COLD) CONTRASTS" have come true as predicted for this month. March 2/3-7 forecast period saw snow north of front in SE and heavy rain south of the line, per forecast. March 8-10 warm in south, rain in Texas (clear on 10th), but not So CA. Canadian cold didn't get far enough south for snow/heavy snow in midwest states. The polar vortex retreated, and Lake Superior didn't make it to 100% ice cover - oh well. Nice & mild here then. 70's-80's-90's across most of US past ten days as humid Pacific warm flows overtake previous cold. March sun is more active than USAF predicted at end of Feb; Earth-facing small sunspots developed early March, lifting SSN and SF numbers. March F10.7 flux average so far is 128 sfu/day; Feb was 129 sfu/day - still on track with SWPC SC24 2015 forecast. USAF 45-day F10 forecast stands at 120 sfu/day (but they are off by ~10% this month...) X-ray flux went up this week, with many M-flares & one X2 from potent active region 2297.
On 13 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
What a shambles standard models are in. GFS very different from yesterday and the MObeeb covering their bahookie with the 'uncertainty' incontinence pants. They just don't have a clue where the major pressure systems are going to end up or what's going to happen to the spring easterlies
On 13 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
SUB HIGHPEAK.
Sleet showers early morning.Murky, foggy. Temp. 4, wind chill 1.5.Can see light snow on far peaks. Daffodils taking so long to flower.Very few lambs in the fields.
On 13 Mar 2015, Steve D wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31855535 More lies, lies and lies about rising global temperatures, new targets for the US, EU and planet to reduce emissions because "that's wot causes climate change stoopid". Epic levels of hatred for the governments of this world right now.
On 13 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A light frosty start clearing to a beautiful blue sky sunny day with some big white fluffy clouds around, a tad chilly temp 7 deg. But feels cooler with a light N breeze @ midday but nice enough to potter about and lots of birds noises to listen to.
On 13 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Biggest solar flare of the year causes radio blackouts on Earth - and a geomagnetic storm is predicted for tomorrow. The first ‘significant’ solar flare of the year has been spotted by a Nasa observatory.
The flare peaked at 12.22pm EDT (4.22pm GMT) yesterday and was watched by the orbiting Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).
This flare was the most powerful of the year so far, and is predicted to cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth tomorrow following blackouts today.
This flare was classified as an X2.2-class flare.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2991546/Biggest-solar-flare-year-causes-radio-blackouts-Earth-geomagnetic-storm-predicted-tomorrow.html#ixzz3UG2I2ZE5
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Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2991546/Biggest-solar-flare-year-causes-radio-blackouts-Earth-geomagnetic-storm-predicted-tomorrow.html#ixzz3UG1guNjz
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On 13 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast, even foggy at times, S’ly breeze gradually increasing in strength up to sub-gale, max temp 7˚, rain off & on from 4pm onwards, still going at 9.30pm when we still had 6˚ and much less wind. Typical srping weather, you could say.
On 13 Mar 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Pg 13 in today's Metro newspaper shows Meto furiously back-pedalling over warm spell they predicted for next week. It'll be a Scandinavian High Pressure with easterlies instead. Remarkable accuracy so far this month Piers! Egg on Meto faces yet again! #BBQSpring? Lol!
On 13 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Cyclone Pam is now a category 5 storm in the South Pacific, currently the island of Vanuatu is directly in its path and has already hit the island of Kiribati. Expected to reach the north and east coasts of the North Island of NZ Sunday night. could be an interesting time as we go from the R2 to the R4.
On 12 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Turned out not too bad yesterday aft. Briefly reached 13 deg. Mostly sunny accompanied by big clouds after the wind and rain tailed off. Wind and rain again this morning max temp 10 deg. @ lunch time and remained grey all day though the wind has eased again now this aft. 7 deg. now at 16.01 pm still raining and too soggy to work outside today.
On 11 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
X2 flare today and a large coronal hole pointing roughly earthward. A new moon on the 20th too. This weekend should be interesting!
On 11 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Calm and fairly clear start, 3˚C at 7.30 but then the wind picked up big time and blew a S’ly gale most of the day, rain from 11 - 4pm, some of it heavy, feeling really cold & clammy in it, even though we had a max temp of 7˚ for a short while. By 5pm the wind had turned into the West, it cleared up and we have our usual starry night now, 0˚ at 10pm.
On 11 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// a cold winter is what many are reflecting on, still waiting for the medias prediction of warm weather last weekend, yes it was sunny but there was a definite Arctic cold in those blue skies.
On 11 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
STEPHEN KELLY we could be in danger of going off blog subjects but one has to note the Greens and ScotNats are the most #deranged and #dishonest of all parties in the frame (no actually they all lie more than each other). They are OTT #ClimateChange Liars and so REQUIRE increased energy and hence food transport and living costs. At the same time they are declared against #Austerity! LOL! #GreenAusterity is #Austerity! On housing they prefer to leave speculators empty properties empty when they could by taken over and re-habbed as Council housing. Rehab is low CO2. Instead they and Labour (especially Labour who also support LandGrabs by developers + social cleansing of their own voters LOL!!) go for new build for sale and note new build is very high in Co2 production. There is VAT on Refurbishment not on New build. I havn't seen any of them calling for that to be reversed. in reality they dont do what they say on CO2. The #Co2Con is a vehicle for tax grabs & enriching the TOP 1%.
On 11 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
STEPHEN KELLY we could be in danger of going off blog subjects but one has to note the Greens and ScotNats are the most #deranged and #dishonest of all parties in the frame (no actually they all lie more than each other). They are OTT #ClimateChange Liars and so REQUIRE increased energy and hence food transport and living costs. At the same time they are declared against #Austerity! LOL! #GreenAusterity is #Austerity! On housing they prefer to leave speculators empty properties empty when they could by taken over and re-habbed as Council housing. Rehab is low CO2. Instead they and Labour (especially Labour who also support LandGrabs by developers + social cleansing of their own voters LOL!!) go for new build for sale and note new build is very high in Co2 production. There is VAT on Refurbishment not on New build. I havn't seen any of them calling for that to be reversed. in reality they dont do what they say on CO2. The #Co2Con is a vehicle for tax grabs & enriching the TOP 1%.
On 11 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Was a bootiful day all day yesterday quite warm in the sun while working in d garden, t-shirt weather for a while till late afternoon, see the first 2 bees here, max temp 11/12 deg. felt warmer then back down to 6 by eve. All change today rain and really blustery all morning but still 10 deg. SSW wind reached 50 kph now SW 39 kph ish at midday so feels cooler but the sun is back and wind is blowin them huge clouds on to somewhere else hopefully :))
On 11 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Piers Lenin,s birthday was always glorious, thinking about the greens "how I wonder did he get to the greens from you know who" the greens belive in global warming doom..... so why do they think that one of Benny Bennett,s pet policy's is to build 500 thousand houses in our country and for who.is that green unless they are of mud hut build.... Not bad for an Australian to spout this rubbish. Nice day here again warmish with a toutch of wind, bit like cabbage soup.
On 11 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THANKS FOR BIRTHDAY WISHES STEVE and others! Yes Great having great weather on my bday as we forecast long range! Not as easy as forecasting weather for Lenin's Birthday which was always a glorious day. ALL Hello! Hello! Hello! => (1) PASS ON! NEW Scandinavian Energy Trade applicable forecasts Service. See home page RHS => (2) PASS ON! Notice the FREE ONE MONTH FOR ANYONE SUBSCRIBING TO ANYTHING STILL ON TODAY as my Birthday gift extension to all in view of nice day - See also Home Page RHS - That means for 1month you get 2, 6m get 7, 12m get 13. It is for any service including ALL(most)ALL Forecasts together Service and the NEW Energy Trades Scandinavia Service. For existing subs taking this up will be treated as extensions to whatever you have now. Pass it on. It is only temporary. Review later today. HomePage will state when it's off, it's on untill HomePage says.
On 11 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Tried to post this last night but we had no service. We are so far from the exchange that it is only by the grace of the internet fairy that we have a connection :-) == 10.03.15 4˚C at 7.30 under a clear blue sky and quite still. Warmer in the almost constant sunshine than the 9˚ max showing on the thermometer, in a light but cool W’ly breeze, more in line now with the 30d forecast. 0˚ by 10pm. == Russ: thanks for the explanation, makes sense to me; I’m not good at studying such things, so always grateful for any info. == Craig: great pictures & article.
On 11 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Blimey the year has flown by happy Birthday Piers,
Yesterday's weather was one of the nicest of the spring here in dear ol dorset, warm with the birds singing and the odd butterfly.Warm As you forecast.
On 10 Mar 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THANKS FOR BIRTHDAY WISHES GILL! ALL Hello! Notice the FREE ONE MONTH FOR ANYONE SUBSCRIBING TO ANYTHING TODAY - See Home Page RHS - That means for 1month you get 2, 6m get 7, 12m get 13. It is for any service including ALL Forecasts togeher up to 100d (excl New Energy Trades) and the new Scandinavian Energy Trade applicable forecasts. For exiosting subs taking this up will be treated as extensions to whatever you have now. Pass it on. Its only for today - ie sometime overnight / morning when subscribe info updates.
On 10 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
sub HighPeak,Derbyshire.
Lovely sunny day.Drove over the Staffordshire Moorlands,incredible views and wonderful sunshine ,until around 4pm..Temp 10 degrees,down to 3 by 6.30pm.!
Rain expected for Wednesday.
On 10 Mar 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Happy Birthday Piers.
On 10 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
First butterfly (peacock I think) last week & saw two bees on Sat (lovely sunny warm day). Pollinating my crocus-first time I've caught them doing so, though I recall Mar 2010 as good also (ladybirds out in abundance). Good weather to pollinate the local plum trees also which haven't done well since 2010/11. Looks to be a cool down on the way so good to see nature maximising the windows. Our recent hot July's are such windows nature opportunistically latches on to. Make hay as they say. The scope and resilience of nature is beyond the comprehension of the climate chicken little's. They really don't understand that the plants and life - like polar bears who have seen far more ice loss - we see have come through far worse *and* often with faster changes. That's why we get swarms like ladybirds in '76 (food source - aphid - increase yes please). Are they denying evolution now? Habitat ranges do not stagnate.
On 10 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Hopefully more will follow-
Florida state environmental officials claim that they are banned from using the terms “climate change” and “global warming”.
The employees have also been ordered not use the word “sustainability” in official documents and communications by their seniors at the Department of Environmental Protection, according to the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/officials-banned-from-using-climate-change-and-global-warming-in-floodprone-florida-10095705.html
On 10 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...cont..."I have used the phrase "deterioration of climate" several times without suggesting what it may have meant in human terms. It meant basically that the already tight schedule of the agricultural year was compressed by about a month, and that the key operations of plowing and planting, and reaping and threshing, were conducted during seasons of quite variable weather." ===
http://history.eserver.org/aurora-of-1192.txt === well worth reading it all. What it shows & massively undermines is the warmist narrative that seasons are static & that changes we see now are some proof that we have not been penitent to Mother Earth. They are not by any means a sign of man, only in that our ingenuity flies in the face of it (hence crops are doing well & increasing overall). Seasons lengthen & contract. It's normal & cyclical. Plants adapt. Co2 provides extra nourishment which helps counters the vagarities of weather-like a plant that grows strong in the wind.
On 10 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Labors of the Month (Medieval) illustrates how certain tasks were set to set periods of the zodiac === http://ow.ly/K9HVw === noted to make sense of this --- "That deterioration of climate was a gradual process and it effects were mitigated in some degree by advances in agricultural technology. ***It was reflected primarily in later springs and earlier winters***, and people seem to have been only vaguely aware of the degree to which the festivals of the solar calendar were becoming dissociated from the agricultural works that had traditionally accompanied them. Plow Monday, the first Monday after Epiphany and the traditional beginning of early plowing, was still celebrated even though the fields were usually frozen or too waterlogged to enter. The feast of Saint Barnabas on 24 June was still considered the proper time for the reaping of winter wheat, although harvests were increasingly delayed to mid- July or even later...cont...
On 10 Mar 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
A lot of grey cloud around yesterday with a spit in the air when walking home from the station. Glorious sunny start with mist floating over the damp meadows. Lovely new train ride in through lots of countryside. Down side of the sun beaming down is the office is now 81.5F.
On 10 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A bit nippy to start this morn a very slight frost here n there around the garden and 1 deg @ 7.30 a.m rising quickly to 8 now at 10.40 lovely blue sky and sun all morning so far and eager to get back to work outside while it's a nice day. Some lettuce and rocket already up in the tunnel only sowed just over a wk ago. Btw Happy Birfday Piers :P
On 10 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy..... It's a bit of a rollercoaster as most UK springs are, but if you consider the effects of the rapid-fire sun-spot AR 2297, which, I doubt even Piers experience and skill could have predicted, then the Scottish low's, bringing wind, heavy rain and snow, will have been enhanced and extended. Even further south, the warm spell has been interupted. Hard frosts almost every morning, as forecast but remarkably warm in the south throughout the day. The only problem being the persistent strong breeze, which is fine when the sun shineth, but a a devil when the clouds roll in. I'm still getting to grips with matching Piers forecast details to realtime events but mixing in realtime solar factors too. He can't predict a single sunspot or it's magnitude but general solar activity, high or low, he can do repeatedly. It's these single solar events which seem to extend or change the forecast on a scale of several days. I'm in Perth tomorrow, so I'll pack my gloves and buff!
On 09 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30 and calm, but the S’ly wind got up by 9am and quickly turned into a very cold gale force feature which lasted all day, MO has been giving us yellow wind warning for the last 2 days - this is contrary to your 30d forecast, Piers, what is happening? Rain & sleet between 11 - 13:00, then reasonably dry. Max temp 7˚, still 6˚ at 19.30 and wild SW’ly continuing. I’m sending this earlier than usual in case we should have a powercut.
On 09 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Not as bad for a time this aft. reached 12 deg. with some sunny spells between the blustery wind and drizzle. 6 deg now at 19.26 pm
On 09 Mar 2015, paul wrote:
The sea ice is a near record low for the sea ice maximum extent and the ice is start this seasons melt already. The global warmers will be claiming ice free arctic again this year I suspect. The Great Lakes ice is probably at the expense of the Arctic ice due to weather patterns.
On 09 Mar 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
if you want to see evidence of climate change go no further than viewing iceagenow ..........italy has had major snowfall of record preportions ..........its a facinating site for those of us who love the winter snow
On 09 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Just when you think a bogus co2 story had been staked in the heart they resurrect it in " No Polar Ice Rides Again'. Basically its the same story they were saying that in 20 years there will be no polar ice which. wasn't credible the first time they run it 20 years ago and the deadline passed in 2013. Actually even if was true does it matter given its been ice free before and is within normal ranges for an inter glacial warming period. I see the climate march descended into a riot lol. Very rational. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/arctic-sea-ice-near-its-alltime-minimum-low-and-could-break-previous-record-10094273.html “Looking towards September, a great deal will depend on the summer weather patterns, and we can't predict what they will be,” Dr Serreze added.- can't predict? But they claim they can predict 20 years from now lol
On 09 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
began as sleety rain about 2 hrs ago, but now falling as wet snow, here at 140metrs in central Highland Perthshire. Snow settling at about 250 metres now. ( at 10 15 hrs.)
On 09 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wet n windy this morn 8 deg @ 8.53 a.m dull grim and wind approx 42 kph
On 09 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
linda -"how can they get so wrong"... their supercomputer called 'Big Brain' never gets it wrong. It is we who are hallucinating that the evidence points to something different from their fatwa :)
On 08 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, light rain in a WSW’ly breeze, clearing up by 9.30 and then bright sunshine until midday, but temps getting progressively cooler despite the sun. Showers off and on for a time, then bright from 4pm, clear starlit evening, 1˚ only by 10pm.
On 08 Mar 2015, D.M. wrote:
Caroline Lucas - "It’s time to stand up against those determined to burn the last drops of oil and gas and be confident in our power to build a better future,” she said. Read this to see who big oil is funding - and its not the sceptics!. No chance of Piers getting any of the cash!
http://notrickszone.com/2015/02/09/long-list-of-warmist-organizations-scientists-haul-in-huge-money-from-big-oil-and-heavy-industry/#sthash.aJNB7Njh.dpbs
Action is being taken against the data tamperers in Australia. See http://www.principia-scientific.org/aussie-politicians-pressured-to-come-clean-on-climate-fraud.html
And this is a classic from Mauna Loa where the CO2 charts originate. The temperature there has gone down as CO2 increased!
http://americantraditions.org/Articles/Positive%20Proof%20that%20Carbon%20Dioxide%20(CO2)%20Is%20Not%20a%20Driver%20of%20Global%20Warming.htm
Keep the pressure on hopeful MPs looking for your vote using these facts.
On 08 Mar 2015, linda wrote:
Met office said FOG all day yesterday(saturday)for 24hrs.......no fog Sun most of the day how can they get so wrong.....gwent.............waste of space.....
On 08 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A little drizzle around 11.30 pm last night and again at 1.30 a.m .. This morning 9deg. 11.00 with a nw breeze for a time making it feel a bit cooler, some nice sunshine and heavy cloud around with a short spell of drizzle around 11.43 a.m wind switched to light W'ly approx 24 kph now with sunshine blue sky and some nice stratocumulus clouds about, 8 deg. @ 15.33 pm we have been fairly lucky here this weekend mostly dry and bright and although temps not as warm as first forecasted by models we have missed the worst of the wind that other counties have been on alert for..
On 08 Mar 2015, Geoff Clarke wrote:
re Joe Biden, presumably he would argue that the sale of Indulgences by the Church in the Middle ages to be proof beyond argument of the existence of God at that time? Discuss (!)
On 08 Mar 2015, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & All, I do not normally make these sort of comments on this website, but I am fuming with the forecast for Wirral etc. where I live. I had planned to plant my shallots this morning ( they should have been in last month), MET forecast was dry, but it is pouring down here, just logged onto BBC weather site & it shows dry at this vey moment??? We all know they cannot forecast beyond 7 days, but this is ridiculous.
On 08 Mar 2015, C View wrote:
With a few posters raving about lovrlry spring weather I thought I should rain on your parade to report the Clyde coast yesterday was gale force winds and persistent torrential rain with temps around 11c but feeling colder in that wind. Utterly miserable. Very similar to what we got in November
On 07 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Wild and wilder as the day progressed, by the afternoon we had a SW’ly gale that went on and on, though again, much less than what they had in the West today, including torrential rain that seems to have gone on all day. A balmy 8˚C at 7.30, rising to 14˚ in spite of much cloud, warmest so far this year. And another first for this year: 10˚At 9.45pm!
On 07 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine/ on Huffington Post web page Joe Biden mocks climate change deniers - but saying it must be happening because the financial institutions are selling carbon credits in the markets - well no comment on that one, but has the freezing conditions in America rocked the data.
On 07 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy to begin around 8 deg. Some nice sunny spells on n off with a mix of cloud and sw wind throughout the day, nice and mild to be out in all day max temp 12 deg. Still 9 at 18.38 pm with some heavy cloud moving across the sky.
On 07 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Nail strike perfect for the first week of march Piers.Started changing here in NE Derbyshire on the 3rd as predicted. No heating on today for the first time since last year. Shirt sleeves out of the breeze. Wall to wall sun. Luvvly Jubbly!
On 07 Mar 2015, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
14c with clear blue skies and warmth out of the breeze. Spring has sprung! But for how long? Subscribe - you won't be disappointed :-)
On 06 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another blowy SW’ly day, rattling the tunnel we’re working in just now, 7˚C at 7.30, rising only to 10˚ on account of the all day cloud cover and strong wind. Heard on the radio this morning that many ferries to the Western Isles were suspended. Still 7˚ at 6pm.
On 06 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
8 deg. Start this morning @ 8.30 a.m I don't believe temp dropped much last night as didn't need heat on so long in the house a few hours burn was sufficient to heat house and top up water for the night and for in the day today, a good mix of sunshine cloud and a little blustery ssw wind approx 34 kph .. I too have a load of washing blowing about in the mild wind :) reluctantly doing house work to hopefully buy myself the weekend out and about outdoors with the kids! Orange warning has dropped a few counties from the list and a change too on yellow warning Dublin is inc. but not us I believe now...
On 06 Mar 2015, Sue G (Cambridge) Subscriber wrote:
Sunny, blustery 12 degrees according to basic thermometer in my yard (10 degrees according to university wizards up the road). Perfect drying day for the first time in months so washing on the line. Lunch outside even if wearing a coat. Spring! Love it.
On 06 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
snow in middle east http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9793865/Snow-blankets-parts-of-Israel-Syria-and-the-Middle-East.html ....what went wrong with the settled science?
On 06 Mar 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
New Zealand has felt the effects of the R5 today with heavy rain, gales and in some places flooding http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/west-coast/67029775/West-Coast-homes-flooded-slips-block-Buller-Gorge. http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/67029606/Drought-busting-deluge-soaks-region. We woke to heavy rain this morning (which was welcome). For the last week here (Motueka, Tasman) we've reverted to hot, sticky summer weather that has made it very difficult to sleep at night. I thought after the cooler nights for the first 3 weeks of Feb that there wouldn't be a return to hot weather but its been a complete turnaround. Some parts of NZ have had some cooler, wet weather (before today) but the majority of places have been very dry.
On 05 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A still start today, 4˚C at 7.30, but not for long as the blustery and often very strong SW’ly wind got up. In spite of temps rising to 12˚ in relative shelter, the wind was very cold at times, especially when the sun started disappearing behind the clouds around 3pm. Clearer sky again with the full moon in evidence, less windy and 5˚ at 10pm.
On 05 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Oops nearly missed this one due to feelin all springy, Orange wind warning for Donegal Galway Kerry and other counties Friday into sat and yellow for us in Leinster and the rest of us here on Met Eireann..
On 05 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Antarctic ice cap increases according to NASA web page
On 05 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
8 deg. at 9 a.m mostly cloudy grey with a light sw breeze but not too parky, 10 deg. by 3 pm and then some really welcome sunshine for an hour or so, temp reached 21 for a while in the Polytunnel before dropping off, still 9 outside now at 18.10 pm a fair bit of cloud again. First Daff out :)
On 05 Mar 2015, Clive wrote:
Meant Warm PDO and Cold AMO not Warm PDO and Cold PDO. Sorry about the mistake on the first sentence of my previous comments,
On 05 Mar 2015, Clive wrote:
The SSTs AMO and PDO at the moment is similar to that of the late 1980s to the mid 1990s warm PDO, Cold PDO. There were a lot of summers from the late 70s and mid 80s that were cool and wet but did not reach the levels of the 1950s or late 2000s and early 2010s.
On 05 Mar 2015, Clive wrote:
I am wondering about the UK summer of 2015 would be like. I originally saw a connection between wet summers occuring 9 years after a hot summer like 2012 occurring after 2013 and 2004 occurring after 1995 and 1998 after 1989 and 1985 after 1976. As 2006 occurred 9 years ago then there is a likelihood of 2015 being wet. The SSTs though are different from 2012. In 2012 the PDO was cold and the AMO was warm, in 2015 the PDO is warm and the AMO is cold. I do not know whether this goes against a wet summer. The other factor that I have looked at is solar cycle 24 is similar to solar cycle 12 which consists of the 1880s. The end of the 1880s had some very dry years like that of 1884 and 1887. Is it possible that we could see some years of drought coming up?
On 05 Mar 2015, Allan wrote:
Great going Piers. Villarrica BOOM. Your theories are well proven now...what happens above the ground also happens below it.
On 05 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Yes Russ read it and weep, we have the first daffs out they are the earliest variety which are the wild daffs of Wordsworth fame. Snowdrops are starting to fade now but they and the crocus have been wonderful this year. We have had a very good winter this year some cold and one snowy early morn cover so great really. -2 this morn and a clear blue sky the start of spring but it is March and I think it was in 1952 we had blizzards across the south and the boat race was in a snow storm. Excuse the lack of punc Ipad and my glasses are rubbish as I sat on them.
On 05 Mar 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part 3: Further investigations have found that Cox is a member of the Royal Society Climate Change Advisory Group which authored a disreputable document entitled “Climate Change Controversies“, which was withdrawn after protests by the Society Fellows. I have just found out that the Group virtually comprises all the other Charlatans that I have come across in the last few years. The above Professor Peter Cox, the man at the centre of the Climategate affair Professor Phil Jones, the only Atmospheric Physicist charlatan I have see on the BBC Professor Joanna Haigh, the man who produced the bogus rebuttal of the Svensmark theory Professor Michael Lockwood, Sir John Houghton and Professor Sir Brian Hoskins. The documentary ended with straw man propaganda statements. The IPCC imposed “formidable consensus of opinion“ and the “overwhelming evidence that the Climate Changes“.
On 05 Mar 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part 2: Professor Cox has been known to confuse the southern ocean with the deep ocean in a complaint to the BBC by Mensa members about the censorship of the fact that Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels follow Atmospheric Temperature levels in Ice Core data after an 800 year lag due to deep ocean temperature lags of around 800 years, the mass of the Oceans been 270 times that of the Atmosphere. Also I note that Professor Cox believed in the disproved “Positive feedback mechanism”.
On 05 Mar 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
In the latest propaganda piece from the BBC, presented by Helen Czerski, I noticed a possible justification for the BBC to censor correlations, when at the end of the program an ignorant female idiot suggested that the past is no longer a guide to predicting Climate Change. The BBC also censored the pause, preferring to dwell on past BBC Global Warming documentaries set in the twentieth century. Also I noticed that the BBC is still employing the Charlatan, Professor Peter Cox. The BBC has had trouble with Professor Cox regarding the predictions of a Barbecue Summer and Mild Winters and his prominent role in the Climategate Scandal and with the IPCC. The BBC claims that it has access to 4,000 Climate Scientists but not one of these has been used as an Independent Scientific investigator into complaints about Professor Cox.
On 05 Mar 2015, Paul wrote:
I really want some real answers. I believe you pierce that are sun has real impact on our climate. I believe we are going into a mini-ice age as you have said for years now. Wild jet streams are the norm now, and wild weather across the world. Lower solar output and sun activity plays a lot into the weather we are having now. How do you respond to a person that believes, are crazy swings in temperature and weather have to do with Contrails and haarp. Do you believe contrails are an attempt to trap heat on our planet to delay the mini ice age we are entering currently. I don't believe in global warming, it's a tax sceme for the rich to get richer. I do believe in climate change which natural occurs on the earth. Alright that's my two cents and wanted to know your thoughts about this. Paul
On 04 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
We were away overnight just north of Aberdeen, there were a couple of spectacular snow showers around 9pm last night but they didn’t last nor did any of it stick. Another brilliant sunny day today, 8˚ max, though the WNW wind was pretty blustery and cold until late afternoon when it calmed down and began to feel a little less cold, slight rain around 10pm and 4˚.
On 04 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Well......nature snuck out while I wasn't looking. Had a long walk through Chatsworth Woods today and lots of birdies were in full spring song. Patches of daffodils shooting up, at around 8 inches, with plenty of buds. I suppose people in Dorset will have vases full of Daffs by now. Lots of snowdroplets too. Ground drying fast in the strong but chilly breeze. The birches are going all purpley (as Billy Connelly describes them). Another good sign! Of course the lichens are just sitting there, all moist, cold, green, and some very GREEN, as if it were June. There doesn't seem to be a winter in lichen-world............. Craig, tis good to get if of yer chest mate! Always good reading.......... I'll be glad when those coronal holes have gawn away. Too many people feeling crap, tired, confused, making mistakes. Even our little pooch has been "under the weather" for several days. I love March! It signals the beginning of a new average summer......and the warmest year on record!
On 04 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Beaver Creek Mountain in the US have just posted on Facebook that they have measured 41 inches of snow in the area this week.
On 04 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yes! we've reached 8 deg at 14.34 and the sun is still shining some cloud and light w breeze about but it's lovely! Nearly didn't want to do any work as was 20 deg. In the Costa del polytunnel for a little while 15 in there now.. back to work!
On 04 Mar 2015, C View wrote:
Nevis Range report for today ''Further 30cm fresh snow overnight and considerable drifting. We've moved lots of snow on the mountain and many of runs have been groomed across the slopes. Rob Roy should be open around 10am as the lift hut is currently under snow''.
On 04 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A couple of more sleet/snow showers yesterday followed by a cold downpour accompanied by wind around 3pm that melted all the snow, sunnyish for an hour then clear frosty icy night giving a glorious sunny blue sky morning today, cold at the moment around 1 deg. @ 8.44 with a very light sw breeze looks like a nice day in store..your welcome Craig I'd say we all enjoy your informative posts, get your boots on looks like some good gardening days are near!-)
On 03 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/6784420?1425315303
Huffington Post - Global Warming Debate finally ended by impeccable logic of US Politician James Inhoffe
- actually he has a point.
On 03 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...just want to say thanks Maria - I'm better than the Beeb ;). Seriously thanks for your continued comments-you're my West warning! I love reading all the comments here as it gives such a flavour of how the weather varies across the British Isles. It's often a great indicator of what's coming my way. I keep watching the Norwegian Atlantic Coast forecasts for cold (what may come from N/NE) or warmth there (normally means warmth breaking through) and Saskia gives a good idea from the East. When I have time & sort my infected computer out I may do a map of our locations (a pin for the county for example). // Lovely today. Sunshine. Little cloud but a chilly wind. Settled at last. Was very windy Sat night. Sunday the same had a great squall in afternoon with horizontal rain as it passed over. Sloshing paving slabs after (slow drainage here as clay soils). Made me smile to watch from the safety of indoors. Now let spring begin, I have work to do.
On 03 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
....The environmental movement has done a lot of good but this current lot will lead us on a road to hell. They see humans as a virus a pestilence on the land. That's straight up dehumanisation which leads to genocide and a view I had before myself. If we industrialise the world birth rates will fall anyway as you don't need an army of children due to previous high mortality rates. If we also give up fossil fuels we will cut every tree in the land down to keep warm & cook. We can be smarter & more sensitive to the environment but the current mindset-often held by *some* urbanites-will not help any balance. The biggest threat to us has always been cold. This is illuminating for how the 17thC (LIA) created such hardship === https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/climate-catastrophe-in-the-17thc-geoffrey-parker-in-review/#more-11555
On 03 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Have yet to see the Climate Change by Numbers (a title that GISS take to heart when they fill in everything with a red crayon). Paul Homewood did a review === http://ow.ly/JTaBn === does sound like some major assumptions. Beware the diplomatic/reasonable face 'the science' will put on, the policy they drive remains. //
Paddy glad you feel honoured! :) I did a post on my blog ===
http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2015/02/28/the-boot-is-on-the-other-foot-does-it-matter/ === My scatological view came as a logical response to reading a fair bit lately going back many years. // Lorraine - our earth is not as fragile as we think. She has survived far worse than us. Nuclear annihilation is a far bigger threat than our pollutin' ways & we have improved so much in many ways. I'm reminded of the 'pristine' Amazon with the black soil created by our forebears. Creating toxic soups in China to mine rare metals for solar/wind however is not good tho'....
On 03 Mar 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub. wrote:
I did not watch it as I know the BBC will come up with a lot of make belives along the way, as for what we put into the atmosphere it is negligible, the main problem for the British isles is that of population,now that will bring our green and once pleasant land to it,s knees if we do not have the courage to deal with it by limiting imagration.
On 03 Mar 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// I watched the bbc 4 documentary science program on climate change - it was interesting from the point of view of data to come up with 0.85 increase of global warming temperature since 1870s -putting it down to human carbon contribution with a few exploding Volcanoes to increase it. I was pleased that it was not full of scare mongering like we need to get picking on the humble cows because they give off methane gases. It was an overall look and even if we are more aware of the fragility of the planet then that has to be a good thing. To be more conscious of what we dump into the atmosphere generally. I am still with Piers on the Sun dictating our weather patterns afterall the Sun might be trying to balance,and heal.
On 03 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C overnight, bright day so far (midday), cold W’ly breeze again, max temp 4˚. Had a delivery of compost this morning, the lorry had snow on the front of the cab, coming up via Perth there was quite a bit of snow (radio traffic report also talked of snow on the A9, which was down to one lane in places), nothing after Dundee, we’re lucky again.
On 03 Mar 2015, WENDY wrote:
Sub High Peak
. Snow flurries today.Temp.3 wind chill 1.2.Bitterly cold wind. Interesting March forcast.
On 03 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A few cm's of snow laying around this morning, looks really pretty but making for a tricky morning run as no buses running rural here due to white roads, no txt from school so making our way in late to save the absence days that they get so obsessed with, snow shower after 7 a.m and another now at 8.53 a.m still some blue sky around though clouding over again and 1 - 2 deg. Feels colder..
On 03 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
there is a bbc docu about climate change? I can tell you what propaganda is in it without watching it. Total waste of my life to watch anything from bbc. They will decontextualise from ice age cycles and the current inter glacial warming period point to the last 30 years of fiddled figures maybe 100 if they want to be 'egghead' and say the trend means we all going to fry unless we live in mud huts and a bloke called kev from camden who is now called big crow becomes keeper of the talking stick.
On 03 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Got up to a winter wonderland Xmas card snow scene this morning, with a few hardy Blackbirds singing their defiance. Can't believe it's less than a fortnight until the trout fishing season starts.
On 02 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Turned off the tv sick of watching rubbish! Craig's points were of more interest to read than the manipulative drivel I was temporarily tuned in to...Some quite hefty snow showers today esp. before midday and after 3pm and again this eve. around 8 pm, stayed cold all day and only briefly reached 6 deg felt colder between 12 n 3pm before temps dropped with next snow session, only a cm or 2 laying around but Orange warning on met.ie includes us for snow ice warning so will see if we get some more by the morning..has just started to snow again now -2 at 22.26 pm
On 02 Mar 2015, Kaz wrote:
What did everyone think of the BBC 4 documentary?
On 02 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Just below 0˚C at 7.30, ground frozen hard, winds from a W’ly direction, pretty strong and very cold, snow showers in W Scotland according to the MO radio forecast this morning, exactly as per Piers’ 1st March weather period “cold wind in north”, same as 45d f’cast. Bright start, then cloudy interlude, then bright afternoon again, max temp only 5˚, down to 0˚ again by 9.30pm. Craig: very informative steam let-off and I like your imagery - the CO2 cult is one big bowel movement :)))) I’m honoured to be ‘picked upon’. Radio news (my only source of the daily brainwash) was also saying that with CC the oaks would now come into bud/shoots earlier than the birch - boy, have we got news for you…
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Final point. Chilly wind today but what has been said by many to be a gorgeous day. Sunny. Gorgeous. Not much wind (would like to check dew points for feel in shade/wind). It has been snowing in Scotland - average that! Completely away from the WA forecast and looking at the GFS yesterday for ~7d a lovely wedge of high pressure over us, however the cold was close and could so easily be sucked in with a slight shift of less than Paddy to me (I'm not picking on you Paddy!). Taking it at face value (I've not looked at recent updates since) that looks precarious. Spring is renowned for shifts and northerlies. April 2008 was an all time favourite. Snow on the 6th (inches) which lasted to the next day followed by temps in the 20s a couple of weeks after. I remember throwing snowballs in early March also in 2005 or 2006. 17/3/13? Easter is statistically more likely for snow than Xmas...for good reason. Do yourself a favour & subscribe. Our sun is waning. Changes are coming
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...the 'Green' model equates to ($300m) Al Gore & his cronies making money whilst the poor get cut off by simple affordability. In India hundreds of millions do not have what we have. Can we blame them for wanting even the basics like refrigeration, transport, building & disaster management for when mother earth decides to throw a natural curveball? Should we put them back to the pre fossil fuel era as the 1876 Bengal Cyclone which killed roughly 200,000? Will a solar panel or windfarm save them from that? Will a lagoon such as the idiotic proposal for Swansea "The cost of [which] generating power...will be very high"[BBC] help them or us? Who will it help? Saudi? China? Obama? Cameron? Always, always be wary of what is done in your name & that of our children which some seem happy to bound in chains with stratospheric levels of debt so they can achieve their dreams. **** you! I have my own dreams, so do my children & they don't envisage another load of corpses.
On 02 Mar 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Had about 5 cm fresh fall in half an hour about 20.00 hrs here at 140metres in Highland Perthshire GFS and MObeeb not quite in synchrony about the coming week ahead.
On 02 Mar 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Climate change by numbers bbc 4 9pm tonight ,groan groan i bet its not unbiased i better look anyway ,,today it snowed on and off but never stuck ,it would of been pleasant but for the raw wind temperatures 12pm 5c and now at 8.30pm 2c brrr.
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...so what does it all mean? Simply we are an ignorant easily led species. We look at the cliff we have always lived on and expect it was unchanging until we came along. I have heard of the end of oil all my life & that time has long passed. I heard of Malthus & population all my life. End of food? End of the world? Yeah they *could* happen but we are ingenious & tenacious. Long before we run out of oil or coal or gas we will find something else when it is economically viable. What looks stupid now may not be in future. Oil is dirt cheap (a false economy currently but that is politics of putting competitors out of the picture not making money). It went up before & the North Sea saved the UK by energy independence. Not so good now but when prices go up in years to come good to know it is there. The taps will turn on. The wind does not always blow. Everything comes at a cost-human labour etc. Some costs are too much to bear...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...Paddy often speaks of the fair difference inland from him. Russ & Ron are always highlighting these micro changes. Now whilst averaging can put you in the ballpark we are looking at a 2000 picture of a few pixels and expecting the resolution of 2020 cameras (try blowing up one of those early images it's normally not pretty-good for spotting your roses not the blackspot causing their demise-suggestions of a cure welcome). A day that is 0C-20C or just 10C all day is still 10C *on average* nor does that tell you about dewpoints or humidity which make a *big* difference. A Averaging is useful, physics could not exist without it, but it has limitations. For example an average range of temperatures would mostly be useless for protecting crops from frost damage-otherwise I'd be planting out already in light of the 'heatwave until Easter' headlines (if you are a grower get the forecast now!!! Key information.)...cont...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...so what do the official IPCC sources say? "GCMs [Global Climate Models] depict the climate using a three dimensional grid over the globe (see below), typically having a horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans. oceans. Their resolution is ***thus quite coarse*** relative to the scale of exposure units in most impact assessments, hence only partially fulfilling criterion 3. Moreover, many physical processes, such as those related to clouds, also occur at smaller scales and cannot be properly modelled. Instead, their known properties must be averaged" === http://ow.ly/JQ7eR === The distance from Paddy to me is less than that
Ever seen the N/S E/W divide in weather let alone over a few short miles when you get dumped on or stay dry? Let that sink in. Then let it sink in again. Spring - "averaged" - can be 4 weeks later for Paddy than me...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...yes the same Saudi that our Foreign Office reports are are not to favourable to due to their...erm...actions. It's not a political point just what is. On the left or right or whatever your FoR all I can say is stop focussing on *one* boot, both are not going to be your friend (nor is Google-keeps giving me DeSmog or SkS dogma). People who define sides based on goodness or moral fortitude are generally well on the way to dehumanising *us* & are in some stage towards genocide ("oh but we can save the planet..teach them democracy blah blah..."). Do we ever learn? So going back to computer models, resolution is key. About ~15 years ago I had a camera phone attachment. I also grew up playing Atari games (101 forms of blocks). Computer models cannot grid thunderstorms one of the key things that exchange energy. Whilst computer models have grown exponentially in resolution (with exponential cost+power usage) they are crude...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...remember that the lower end 'scenarios' are based on business as usual when we *have* taken measure as the bl**dy carbon taxes/trading measures show. Co2 went up, temps have not warmed (as sat records show-'adjusted'+'homogenised' land measurements throw in liberal sprinkles to make a polished turd as Iceland shows). So the 25yr policy suddenly may not mature for another decade give or take another few decades. Remember also how we had X years to act-just like a dodgy salesman giving you a 'final discount'. The big difference here is this is not a sole trader but a non elected monolith constituting dictatorships & some of the most unpleasant regimes-some of whom fund international terrorism (I'll leave that to your frame of reference (FoR))- on the planet 'speaking' for every one of us. The IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) cannot operate without each one of these toads agreeing (again your FoR may apply). As an example Saudi have a say...cont...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...the important thing-as they keep telling us-is not the message but the communication of the message, which loosely translates as you should be having bowel movements on command (i.e when they say not in accordance with your body rhythms). Linking any weather event (as they inevitably do) is all part of the strategy. The science or prediction of such events is irrelevant to getting the message out to people. It has of course backfired wildly, hence now the attempt to scream, shout & p*ss in any corner so they make a point. I tend to look closer at such people for what they have to hide & the scientists in the pay of a theory. Like I said about people selling things. 'Yes we didn't pay out this time but we have a new improved policy-it's only 110% more'! So now we look at the computer models which have not & cannot replicate climate past or present without fudges not based on observations (like aerosols from volcanism), they are particularly dreadful lately...cont...
On 02 Mar 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
We keep getting told that computer models are the best thing since squeezable cheese & sliced bread. If I recall Julia Slingo-who made her reputation with computer modelling-said they were a scientific wonder of the modern age (well they are but maybe not in the way her confirmation biased mind thinks they are!). If you ever came across someone who sells a product they tend to extol the virtues & leave the drawbacks in the fine print. Many a person has found themselves on the receiving end of the 'exceptions' come the time of your claim. The first IPCC report (which included a MWP) is now 25 years old. Time for the policy to mature. Now if we claimed we would have lots of handwaving but as Roger Pielke said & indeed the MetO - after a brutally wet, mild winter in NW Europe 2013/14 - the jury is still out. No event can be claimed as the result of Co2, despite the attempts to make sure all events were linked [pdf] === http://ow.ly/JPZkl === ... cont...
On 02 Mar 2015, Mark Lane wrote:
Just back from Taiwan with a couple of data points.
Commerical growing of orchids there no longer worth doing because the plants need colder winters than they get now.
The skies, which used to be blue, are now generally blue-grey thanks to massive air pollution drifting over from China.
On 02 Mar 2015, C View wrote:
News from the highlands..(Glencoe)- "
Runs Open:
We are going to give it a go, it is still windy and there is tonnes of snow to more so you will need to bear with us.
All slopes have a great cover of soft wind blown snow with huge drifts in places. We are digging our way round the lifts. " not bad for the start of March!
On 02 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Still -1 at 9.27 a.m feels colder with a light covering of snow this morning, just enough snow on outside tables ( around a cm ) for a quick snow ball fight before school :) Some light snow showers since but mostly blue sky at the moment..
On 01 Mar 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast but soon brightening up. Winds more W’ly today but still beefy enough, no rain to speak of. Temps nevertheless got up to 8˚ in good sunshine, down to 3˚ by 9.30pm.
On 01 Mar 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Wet and miserable all yesterday with a blustery wind. Clear blue skies this morning but still windy. Clouds came over and a thnderstorm arrived with a huge downpour around 5pm. Lasted for nearly an hour of rain and wind then it cleared away for the moon to appear. Reports that there will be an independent review of the faked temperature data as most of the US and Canada suffer freezing temperatures.
On 01 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Richard (subs east mids)... The PDO is a cyclic decadal oscillation, so it's effects come and go. The wild jet-stream characteristics have been occurring in almost every month of every year for the past 10 years or so but I believe they are increasing in severity. Observe this yourself Richard. Watch the jet-stream loops on www.sat24.com/europe then look at spaceweather.com to see what the Sun is doing. You'll see that when the Sun is quiet, the jet-stream loops are shorter and the wind speeds are slower, in fact the loops follow a slightly different path. As the solar activity increases, so do the jet-stream wind speeds and size (extent) of the loops, pushing down beyond Morrocco and the Mississippi Delta. Did anyone notice the way the jet-stream behaved itself over Europe around the winter solstice? The effects of the solar wind pouring (blasting?) out of the massive coronal hole and the heliospheric current sheet crossing have certainly upped the wind speeds in the UK...
On 01 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Thanks for 30d March forecast Piers, just answered my own question when I found my Feb forecast and see the pesky R3 was responsible for 28th weather, well forecasted and March looks very helpful.. 3 deg. A brighter fresh calmer afternoon at 16.10 pm some blue sky sun and big clouds around..
On 01 Mar 2015, brad wrote:
Have you seen the latest NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS chart on spaceweather, its very interesting . take a look .
http://www.spaceweather.com/
On 01 Mar 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wind and rain maybe not as bad for us as some areas ( met alerts hadn't included us for this one just passed ) but it's cooled us down to 5 deg. now at 11.53 after a sunny hour it has clouded over bringing a hail shower and sleety cold downpour, some areas reporting snow showers in Longford Galway Athlone and thunder and lightning with power outages in Kerry I think it was.. Looks like a colder few days on the cards with wintry showers.. Cheers Steve ;) & Russ yeah I've noticed it does seem to correspond that way too have noticed it with my kids re headaches also...
On 01 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gales over the past two days, and rain, with heavy rain forecast again for this afternoon (Sunday)... Amazing how the two winds are part of the same joint magnetic field. The solar wind, accelerated by the Sun's magnetic field, hit's the Earth's magnetic field and transfers it's energy into our atmosphere. This in turn powers up storms, causing powerful winds on Earth. Both winds. One electrical in nature and the other, allegedly, warm air wafting around. Don't you believe it! Meteorologists are happy to admit that storms are electrical in nature, yet have difficulty understanding the overall concept that the very movement of the air that in part creates the storm, is pushed around by electric charge moving between Earth and space. This page explains the electrical double layer; how electric charges are held apart in the atmosphere.>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_layer_%28plasma%29 << The twisting of a double layer is the force which twists huge regions of atmosphere..
On 01 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Funnily enough gav vids has just uploaded a vid about the theory the warm pdo creates a high that drags the vortex down into usa.....SST's This Winter + Some Projections For Winter 2015/16 (1/3/15) ....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12A-1RgGuAY
On 01 Mar 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
David Durrell..the polar vortex seems to follow the irregularities in Earth's magnetic field. If you look at the way the jet-stream pushes down a huge loop of cold Arctic air over the NE states, it follows the weaker magnetic zones of the planet. Same with Europe where the jet-stream loops push down toward N Africa, guided by the weaker magnetic field over western Europe. If you look at maps showing the extent of the ice-sheet during the last ice-age, you'll see that it closely follows the same shape and extent that the jet-stream loops are tracing out.....Maria & Christine. Over the past few days lots of people have been complaining of severe headaches, including myself. I'd like to point out that migraine sufferers may find relief during solar minimum, when the Sun has few if any sun-spots. An inactive Sun seems to bring about an inactive head!
On 01 Mar 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
USA gets the polar vortex because they have more co2 and it attracts bad luck :)..........the only thing i have noticed is how air masses behave differently over land or water which in our case is the gulf stream that pushes north. Land is stationary while water moves. Air will take the easiest route.
On 28 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, feeling much milder in the SW’ly breeze, overcast all day, max temp 7˚, light rain from 3pm onwards until about 8.30pm, still 6˚ at 10.30pm, feeling really mild.
On 28 Feb 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part 2: And number (3) One trillion tonnes (the total amount of carbon we can afford to burn – ever – in order to stay below ‘dangerous levels’ of climate change): I thought this was the assumption with no long-term correlation that is at the core of all Computer Model errors. So the BBC continues to censor Causational Climate science, Causational Climate Scientists and scientific debate about the Cause of Climate Change, and instead produces this piece of rubbish. Rubbish because although number (1) is roughly correct, number (2) is a politically induced opinion, and even the true opinion of a scientist is irrelevant in any calculation, and number (3) has never had any proof, and I think has effectively been proved wrong since 2011 by the Unified Theory of Climate.
On 28 Feb 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Climate Change by Numbers, BBC 4 on Monday at 9pm. Three ignorant mathematicians will look at three numbers, as the BBC admits “The stories behind these numbers involve an extraordinary cast of characters, almost all of who had NOTHING TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE”. Norman Fenton, Professor of Risk Information Management, David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk and Dr Hannah Fry will look at the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable. (1) 0.85 degrees (the amount of warming the planet has undergone since 1880): I thought it was 0.74 degrees. (2) 95% (the degree of certainty climate scientists have that at least half the recent warming is man-made): I thought this 95% was 90% until the German delegation at the last IPCC junket insisted on this politically induced figure.
On 28 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset.UK sub wrote:
Maria...37 you are but a child, an old child but you have miles to go yet, enjoy your weather spring is around the corner girl.
On 28 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yeah I awoke with a banging headache this morning felt like I had been drinking when I hadn't, could have equally been dehydration though perhaps or the shock of turning 37 :)) felt better in the day in time for a nice meal and wine such a treat should cure the dehydration if it was that!-) Max temp 12 deg. Overcast rain and wind picking up really blustery SW wind 40 kph with gusts and picking up more now at 18.29 looks like in like a lion for March here :-) not knowing March forecast as yet is this an R5 period a day early then?
On 28 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
What appear at first glance to be open and never ending magnetic field lines, are in fact parts of an electric circuit. The combined electric and magnetic field lines stretch all the way out to the heliospheric boundary at around 80-90AU (90 x the distance from Earth to the Sun). But those distant magnetic field lines must go around and make their way back to the Sun to complete the circuit (which they do). Strange how easily a physicist can believe in Black Holes (invisible), Dark Matter and Dark Energy (both invisible), yet they can't get their heads around invisible electric charge and magnetic field lines existing in the vacuum of space....... Massive coronal hole and extended solar current sheet crossing should cause some interesting events over the next week. Pity the Moon phase isn't at full until the 5th of March, otherwise any weather events could be even more severe. Or we could just say that solar events don't control Earth weather and go do some embroidery or go fishing???
On 28 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Andy..... It is highly probable that the massive coronal hole on the Sun and the Earth's proximity (crosses it today), to the solar heliospheric current sheet with have played havoc with the Earth's magnetic field. The connecting magnetic portal between Earth and the Sun will help pour solar wind emanating from the coronal hole onto the Earth's poles, and this in turn will distort the jet-stream. The enhanced solar activity over the past week will increase this meandering in severity and therefore drag more arctic air down over the US.......... I like the term "opens up" in reference to the solar magnetic field, on the spaceweather.com website, instead of Mr Phillips using the completely innapropriate word "crack" to refer to a region of very weak magnetism which is relatively neutral, showing no particular polarity. Then he shoots himself in the foot by referring to "OPEN FIELD LINES". A physicist should know that there is no such thing as an "open field line" in a magnetic field....
On 28 Feb 2015, David Durrell wrote:
Can you please tell me why the Polar Vortex has been so prominent over North America and Canada . Why does it not affect the British Isles and why don't we receive the freezing
Weather
On 28 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
It is probably caused by the North South divide, whoops that is something else, mild drizzles here in dorset this morning,
Not bad and the snowdrops and crocus are looking great.
On 28 Feb 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
I woke during the night and couldn't get back to sleep for ages. When I did wake, it was with a heavy, almost headache, that I now associate with solar influence. Sure enough on checking space weather this morning, I find we are going through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. I wonder if anyone else is affected by these changes?
On 28 Feb 2015, Andy wrote:
Are there any clear reasons why the Polar Vortex has been so strong in North America and what is stopping this happening on our side of the Atlantic
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