On 21 Apr 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Two days of sunshine (19 and 20/04) in the midst of otherwise very windy and overcast weather which has included hail. Yesterday was windy as well, despite the sun. Wind is continuing to come from the East, and is drying out the soil at an alarming rate. Despite this, birds are producing chicks, sheep are producing little balls of wool, horses are producing gangly foals, and the (bumble) bees are looking for nectar in every blooming shrub. Our male Jack Russel/Kooiker cross is driving us nuts by turning each walk into a tug-of-war event as he sniffs out females in heat *sigh* Here's what it looks like just around the corner from where we live: http://bit.ly/1kRpPNi Btw, we find that it seems there's 'less oxygen' in the air lately; anybody else experience this as well?
On 21 Apr 2014, AJ Virgo wrote:
The fact that there were still traces of the Polar Vortex as late as mid April has to be a worry since that type of system began in late July 2013.
There is barely 3 months until late July 2014 !
On 20 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Piers re Laurentide shape in Maunder will take time but certainly elements appear to be there from LIA accounts but needs fleshing by sequencing accounts from BI/NW Europe & early settler accounts. Put up a quick post with some info === http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/04/19/2531/ === initial thoughts along lines of a magnetic 'resonance' switch akin to cymatics (where sand on a plate forms sound shapes - just search it on YouTube) reminds me also of jetstream hexagon in polar Saturn. === http://1.usa.gov/1jo0Tcd === but compounded by ocean pump and geographic 'noise' lost in 'smoothing' +++ Bob, yes figured the smoothing prob from plotting but mainly as I plotted/recorded the metrics on good old pencil+paper (as they would've in LIA). I used it as a learning tool (if you want to learn put away the calculator ;-) )
& it was the quakes that 1st caught my eye. This past winter has been highly instructive'-the link seems even more obvious
CAGW is Toast!
On 20 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Sadly over twenty people died in the North west India subcontinent on Friday===
"JAIPUR: The surprising change in the weather across the state has created havoc in many parts of the state. While three persons died, much damage has been done to harvested crops in southern and eastern Rajasthan...The windstorm that started late on Friday evening continued for almost 30 minutes at the eastern and northern parts of the state. Trees and electric polls were uprooted at several places...The hail storm continued for almost half-an-hour in Kota, Jhalawar and Baran districts. The farmers who have recently harvested their crops were a worried lot after the sudden change in weather. "We don't have enough space to keep the crops of mustard and bajra inside. Due to the hail storm and rainfall, which was unexpected, quintals of crops have been damaged," said Sheoji Lal, a farmer in Ramganj Mandi village" === http://bit.ly/1gLAPqO + http://bit.ly/1i3tTL3 + http://bit.ly/1iBM2OS
On 20 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
A wet day with mainly E/NE flow until nearly 6 but a notable electric storm passed through ~1030 for about 45mins. Few but long rolls of thunder & a particularly heavy spell as the main cell passed close by ~(7s so ~1.2m*). Thankfully no lines hit today! +++ *Always useful advice for an R period..."To estimate the distance between you and a lightning flash, use the "Flash to Bang" method: If you observe lightning, count the number of seconds until you hear thunder. Divide the number of seconds by five to get the distance in miles. Since lightning can strike up to 10 miles from a storm, you should seek safe shelter as soon as you hear thunder or see lightning...Get to a safe location if the time between the lightning flash and the rumble of thunder is 30 seconds or less." === http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/distance.htm
On 20 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Blue, blue sky all day here, except for the evening, when the haar rolled in off the sea, temp ranging from 3˚C at 7.30 - 16˚ in the afternoon, back down to 6˚ by 10pm. The constant ESE wind put a damper on the warmth but further inland where we went for a picnic that was less noticeable, with HP over Scandinavia and LP over England such E winds are the norm, as is haar - which we duly had rolling in off the sea by 6pm. The little river by which we stopped had a remarkably low water level for this time of year. == BTW, today's weather map looks remarkably like Pier's Euro Pressure Map for 20.04 from 'choices of 14th March'.
On 20 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Most of the day was sunny in Laois cooler than yesterday around 12 deg. Clouded over in the afternoon & was humid for a while before north easterly breeze picked up a bit more and showers started around 6pm, rain tailed off and back now around 9pm and 9 deg. sounds like the wind has picked up a bit again and met say more rain and thunder possible...
On 20 Apr 2014, Piers_corbyn wrote:
COSMIC RAYS + HALE 22yr cycle RICHARD NO. Did you watch the video I mentioned? GCR is important re interstellar dust and modulation of genetic changes driven by cosmic ray damage but it FAILS TOTALLY as a significant sun-earth agent of change. The theory REQUIRES WEATHER FOLLOWS COSMIC RAYS WHICH HAVE AN 11yr cycle. world temps instead SHOW 22yr cycle. So THEORY FAILS. EXPERIMENTS repeating cloud chamber work of 60 yrs ago prove nothing of the theory whatsoever they simply corobarate the known nucleation properties of charged particles in water vapour. They prove nothing any more than observation of the IR Absorb and emission properties of CO2 prove AGW. The CO2 and GCR theories are equally stupid confusions of cause and effect. Warmists promote GCR as THE solar theory because it is such rubbish and dismissable in one line leaving the it's not a dog so it's a cat ie CO2 conclusion. Thanks
On 20 Apr 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part 2: I think the reason that there is no conflict is because on the one hand, Svensmark only provides one single element to the science, only the high energy cosmic rays that produce the muon cascade that seeds the low clouds, while although the Hale cycle would be significantly relevant for changing weather patterns, it would not be relevant for changing the total low cloud albedo for the two eleven year cycles, because any effect would only be an alternation of polar low cloud albedo, that’s why observations correlate with Cloud albedo. As an Astronomer, I am sure that changes in the Earths albedo is the main driver in Global temperature changes after thermal lags in the Oceans.
On 20 Apr 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Personally I still do not see a conflict between the Svensmark theory and Piers Corbyn, as I have read in the Space Special Interest Group of Mensa, “The fact that Galactic cosmic ray levels have been relatively unchanged in the last 200 years (the Sun changes the Galactic cosmic ray levels) means that some solar scientists are insisting that Cosmic rays are a proxy, not a cause, this is disproved by the CERN CLOUD experiment, the 2006 Danish experiment and the work of Nir Shaviv, but this also means that because low cloud formation has always correlated with other Solar effects within the scientific era, it is still far better to use the established techniques for weather forecasting, and there is far more to meteorology than understanding low cloud formation“.
On 20 Apr 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Craig, you catch on quick! I agree with you 100% that smoothing data hides the actual daily cause-effect relationship per the Sun-Earth connection. Scientists of every stripe tend to evaluate everything in statistical terms, and as a result of that methodology, they can clearly miss the obvious! As I said at EU2014, trends and averages don't cause things to happen - things cause things to happen. The thing is, that watching daily activity in detail since October last year has been very revealing for me, and none it likely would have happened if I didn't take it upon myself to more closely evaluate Piers' forecasts. I will repeat here what I mentioned to Piers: I owe him a video! The Sun causes warming, cooling, and extreme weather events, not CO2! Smoothed data are only good for comparing longer periods: months or solar cycles. So, Craig, everyone else, you now have the key to our freedom. Please go out and carry that message far and wide. CAGW/AGW is toast! Happy Easter everyone.
On 20 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Also a little breezy today in comparison to last few days...
On 20 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another very warm sunny day yday 14/16 deg. felt warmer, felt cooler quicker last night 5deg @ 10pm clear starry night, this morning chilly but beautiful start, sun out odd cloud around but again the scattered showers have been put off till this eve for us on met forecast, think they may actually be right for tonight though the unsettled Easter they had in mind a week ago has so far been a gorgeous weekend instead, their forecast for next Thurs/Friday is looking identical to Piers thoughts at the bottom of graph for wkend 26/27th & has changed towards that since yesterday! Can't wait for May 30d forecast!
On 20 Apr 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
and of the 4% of the 0.04% of CO2 in the atmosphere that is anthropogenic, the Scoto-genic proportion is 0.05%----so WTF are we building windfarms all over the Highlands for!!??
On 20 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Steve .. Piers .. Re: typo... I have read that CO2 just 10x (0.4%) the present level (0.04%) can cause some discomfort (toxicity) to humans and at 1% causes drowsiness. At 4%+ (allegedly) it can be fatal. All I know is (allegedly) The Stig sleeps in a room with a CO2 concentration of 100%; it helps to keep his suit white and prevents insect bites, which can be fatal to him. It burns your nose when drinking a freshly poured glass of sparkling lemonade, but then, that's just the CO2 turning into carbonic acid when it comes into contact with your saliva. ..... Your sudden onset of wind & rain for today is coming true just like a happy ending for a Disney cartoon Piers. R5 it is and brolly's in the far S/SW.... bang on my man! Can you time travel into the future by any chance??
On 19 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 this morning, no frost, mostly sunny all day with variable cloud cover, much fair weather cumulus & cirrus higher up. Any activity outside caused immediate sweating but the stiff SSE wind was so cold that it didn't take long to cool down, max temp 14˚, back down to 7˚ by 10pm. == Steve: re brain dead Co2 theory, we do have all the information at our finger tips but most people actually DON'T WANT TO KNOW! And our general culture, coupled with the repetitious falsehoods & propaganda, is doing its utmost to distract & send us to sleep. HAPPY EASTER everyone, nevertheless :-)
On 19 Apr 2014, B.Spin wrote:
Hello All,
Just looking at the 'Easy Look Graph' on Piers forecasts,
now If the top Graph 'Precipitation' was Inverted(Dry at the top) I think It would be a better 'Quick Look' of all three Graphs.
What do you think?
On 19 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Two more large quakes today, M6.6 25km depth at 0204UTC and M7.5 at 1427, 31km. BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G. +++ Smoothed SSN could be lower than Nov as on 12th SSN was 74 so all down to how our sun behaves from now. I hate smoothed averages as it is the variability that seems key (in terms of temps an average of some US temps last week flipping within 24hrs from ~27F (-3C) to 75F (24C) gives 51F (11C). The average is nothing special but the contrast most certainly is). It's the same with solar metrics, smoothed figures tell us little (smoothed CO2 is also one of the deceits used).
The response to solar activity does seem to be rapid (a few hours/days) something a smoothed figure will 'iron' out (hence the effort by some to smooth it) the Dec-Feb storm fest really did seem to be a solar peak followed by the succession of lows. +++ The underlying 10.7 flux is declining from the Dec-Feb peak but not updated since 9th === http://www.solarham.net/averages.htm
On 19 Apr 2014, Steve wrote:
Wow! so I misread the figures and our contribution is even less by a long way - light years in fact! We trust Piers over the mass of doubtful types out there. It is even more of a scam than I thought and a tiny fraction of the amounts claimed for homeopathy - which many of the same "climate scientists" ridicule because "nothing that diluted could have any effect". How they must laugh at us as they set up taxes and carbon trading rooms!
On 19 Apr 2014, Piers_corbyn wrote:
R5 and QV5 ~19-20th on now THANKS BOBW for your excellent reportage and info. RQV5 periods are forecasts of these electric phenomena. I wonder if smoothed monthly SSN will give this sub peak higher than Nov just gone?
On 19 Apr 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Yesterday the highest sunspot number of the year was recorded at 296, beating 282, the highest from 2013, which occured on Nov 17. SFI shot up as well during Piers' R3, and late into last night the US had temps as high as 75F as far north as So. Dakota. So, we don't have to wait long to see the solar cause of higher Earth temps. There was also a long duration M7.3 solar flare yesterday morning, and following that by about 90 minutes was a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Mexico, as well as cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean. That sequence is an example of what Dr. Kongpop U-Yen discussed at EU2014 - SOLAR scalar wave IMPULSES causing natural disasters. GOES protons jumped immediately after the flare, and today ACE LE protons, electrons & ACE HE protons also shot up in our magnetosphere. We each discussed at EU2014 how Haiyan, Sandy, Katrina, and other extreme weather events are caused by such solar flare events. Dr. U-Yen confirmed to me that those events are true "electric weather effects".
On 19 Apr 2014, Piers_corbyn wrote:
STEVE ANOTHER TYPO Man's contribution to CO2 levels is 4% of the 0.04% = 0.0016% ie less than 2 parts in 100,000. In terms of your 4 blue marbles out of 10,000 it is 1/6th of a marble. For man's 1/6th of a marble to rule the rest the other 3 and 5/6ths marbles have to stay constant. A sort of nature conspiracy to let man rule even if the CO2 theory was not just drivel. See SCIENCE DENIERS PICTWITT AND PDF above. The whole theory is not just insane it is mentally deficient, terminally ESN, lies, drivel, fraud, theft, catastrophically pathetic, supported only by people who know-not the facts or who are self-serving science deniers. I understate the stupidity of the state of modern 'science' and media beliefs. Enjoy Easter! Piers
On 19 Apr 2014, Piers_corbyn wrote:
HAPPY EASTER ALL AND ENJOY THE WEATHER + Let people know about our forecasts! ----- CO2 LEVELS STEVE, RUSS. I thought Russ had meant even 10x current levels are no prob or maybe it was a typo, so thanks for putting it right. We deal in facts here. There were long periods in geological past when levels of CO2 were ten X now and plant life boomed. It is not just journalise to say it CO2 IS GOOD FOR YOU!
On 19 Apr 2014, steve wrote:
Russ (comment on 17th) true - but it is ten times less than that: so your argument x10!!! It is 0.04% or 4 parts in 10,000 - imagine ten thousand blue marbles on a floor and now remove four and hold them in your hand and look at them - that is the tiny, tiny scale of things these idiots blame for all our ills. Not only that but nature makes over 3/4 of it so we are beating ourselves up for under one part in ten thousand.
I am staggered that the public "bought" this rubbish especially now we can all access proper facts at the touch of a keyboard in our own homes. I would have put very long odds on this scam ever running but blimey! look how it has! "The Emperor's New Clothes" all over again!
On 19 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Lovely very warm sunny day here yesterday, not aware of temps as was busy moving the chicken run but warm enough to put on the suncream, beautiful start again this morning spot on Easter forecast...
On 19 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Very cold east wind yesterday (18th) but we noticed it because we were on the bikes riding across the White Peak District so often above 1,000ft elevation, around Buxton, Congleton etc. We did stop for a coffee and a nibble and out of the wind it was a glorious day. In fact there were lots of people wearing shorts, t-shirts and mini-skirts, so most people thought it was a mighty fine day. Almost wall to wall blue sky so people`s Vit D levels will be up.
On 18 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
What an amazing day, glorious sunshine from the word go, starting with a slight frost here, temp 1˚C at 7.30, eventually warming to 16˚ in a variable wind from an E'ly quarter. Away from home today, when returning around 7.15pm temp was already down to 9˚ again, 4˚ by 10pm. It looks as if Easter Sunday will be cool/cold as usual but at least dry and sunny.
On 18 Apr 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
HALE CYCLES COSMIC RAYS AND ALL THAT. RICHARD the answer is no. The reason is that cosmic rays properly called GCR ie galactic cosmic rays come to the solar system from all directions and are partially excluded from it by the suns magnetic field irrespective of which way the sun's field is generally pointing ie the more magnetic field size the less cosmic rays so both follow the 11 yr solar cycle. Solar charged particles on the other hand (which are of lower energy but still carry 300 x more total energy than GCR because there is so many more of them) are magnetically guided from sun to earth and their temperature effect on the earth is therefore the 22yr mag hale cycle. In world temps the 22 yr cycle is the main one and 11yr is tiny therefore the idea that GCR are the agency of sun-earth weather connection fails. If data is smoothed over the hale cycle or more of course there is no 11 yr cycle present to test the theory. See my u-tube on the matter "weatheraction meeting 27/4/12" .
On 18 Apr 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Are there any correlations between the Hale Magnetic cycle and high-energy Cosmic Ray levels?
If not, then why not Piers?
On 18 Apr 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
7.2 Earthquake in Mexico City. The Oarfish foretold it a week or two ago (when I posted here that I wouldn't want to be in the area during the next R5 (and earthquake occured within Piers stated margin of error for R5 start)). Awaiting Mays 30d forecast now and given the headlines about it wondering whether I will be spending my time watering a parched allotment or covering it with fleece and straw to keep out the frost
On 18 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
just watched Piers in the C4 film "The great global warming swindle". I've no idea why it was criticised in a super yapparrazzi storm so much or why the establishment went OTT. Seems to hold up with what is known today and actually there is a lot more one could add to the swindle if it was made today such as the failure of predictions....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtevF4B4RtQ
On 18 Apr 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL, RUSS, RHYS Your Comms on April so far apreciated. It has though, recently been cooler (for Avgs) in the South than we expected although the mild March makes the breeze feel chillier. Comms on format of June (another interesting month though I say it myself!) 75d welcome (or can be direct to Piers@WeatherAction.com ).
On 18 Apr 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual Subscriber) wrote:
Craig
I'm delighted of a forecast of rain in the south on Sunday as the warm dry weather means the garden could do with it. Of course, the huge deep-level moisture after the wet winter means that trees and deep rooting veg are doing great, but watering in April is an odd concept for young plants in my experience!
My take is that Piers' 30 day April forecast to date has been generally right although timings may have been slightly variable. In terms of the sunniness, rain levels and temperature summaries at the end, it's pretty good so far.
On 18 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Piers, your April forecast is rapidly becoming 90% accurate even on a day to day basis here in Derbysheepshire, something the Met Office can only dream about achieving.
On 18 Apr 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS charts now backtracking on early May cold snap( anyone surprised!!??) with only a brief cooler period first few days, with much warmer conditions coming in from SW.
On 18 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Russ, thanks for the suggestion about the rain gauge but its over the other side of the garden well away from the house. Most times I go and empty it but I'd just had enough of the rain when I posted my comment!
On 18 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Weather worsened again here this afternoon with thunder, lightening and torrential rain. Calmer now but still more rain to come overnight. There are parallels with this storm to the Wahine storm of 1968, also caused by a cyclone. Quote from NIWA website " April 1968 New Zealand Ex-tropical Cyclone Giselle
Ex-tropical Cyclone Giselle affected every region in New Zealand, with high winds, heavy rain, flooding, landslips and high seas. The interislander 'Wahine' sunk in Wellington Harbour during the storm, with the loss of 51 lives. Other casualties: one in Northland, two in Wellington due to high winds: a man who went missing on Stewart Island. Weather-related injuries were reported in Waikato, Manawatu-Wanganui and Wellington"
On 18 Apr 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
BRILL COMMS ALL -- ALL, JUNE 45d-75d is now LOADED in 6 Weather sections 2pages Comments on form +usefullness welcome --- BOB W YES OF COURSE my apols I squashed up concepts +word usage. It's important to get it right so I should have explained better. SOLAR FLUX where it means SFI = 10.7cm radio flux is an excellent well defined meaningful measure & v closely follows SSN (Sunspot numbers) & follws 11yr cycle. Sometimes "Flux" is used as meaning TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) or 10.7cm SFI is deemed a proxy for TSI / everything coming out of the sun which confuses things not helps. The problem comes when SMOOTHED SFI, TSI or whatever (Cosmic rays, C14 &c) are compared to world temps & erroneous conclusions drawn ie that there is a direct correspondesnce between solar activity (SSN/10.7cm SFI as proxy) +world temps when there is NOT. The correlation varies with odd/even cycles. The smoothing trick used by Svensmark & many smudges odd +even cycles together HIDING odd/even effects.
On 18 Apr 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Piers, I don't know what the MET has to say about solar flux because I don't read their stuff. For years I've daily checked spaceweather.com, solarham.com, & solarimg.org/artis, and one of the important measures I track among others is the 'solar flux index' (SFI). The SFI is actually the 10.7cm 'radio flux' that closely tracks the sunspot number, SSN (see http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5). The SFI is very representative of solar activity across the sun's radiant spectrum (all wavelengths, like TSI - total solar irradiance). An increase in SFI means the sun's photon (light/heat) energy output increases, and vice versa. Since SSN and SFI are proxies for overall solar activity, we can track daily changes in the sun's energy output with them. The daily SFI as a proxy for all wavelengths, integrated over the solar cycle (SC) length gives us the total SC energy input at the Earth's TOA (top of atmosphere), & equals the area under the SSN or SFI curves per SC, allowing SC comparisons.
On 17 Apr 2014, Rob wrote:
Piers - you said back in February that it looked as though the world was moving faster than previously expected into a MIA prompting you to develop the next SLAT vers. Looking ahead do you see any further evidence to support these thoughts or is it a case of we need to wait and see?
On 17 Apr 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
INTERESTING COMMS ALL --- THANKS for agreeing the importance of this MAY45d. We are in the most interesting and ECONOMICALLY DANGEROUS (anyone in Govt listening out there?) weather decade for at least 100 years --- CRAIGM Your+Steve Goddard's point about the shape of that great Laurentide ice sheet which sat over N America in 'the Younger Dryas' period is very important. Question; was cold distribution in Maunder and Dalton similar or not? --- Solar 'flux' point:- The key is NOT what's coming towards but what gets to surface EFFECT. Solar flux (a hold-all typical muddled Met concept) in odd and even cycles is very similar but the ODD cycles have more heating effect (magnetic connectivity probably being agency) - which explains the 22yr (HALE) cycle in world temps (11yr being almost non existent on World Av) and why the Svensmark Cosmic Ray theory whatever it's good features re charged particle effects and stars is nonsense (and 'demonstrated' by a smoothing fudge as bad as Al Gore).
On 17 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The storm is continuing to wreak havoc across NZ. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9956222/Storm-maintains-its-grip The wind has now swung round to the North this morning and at the moment its not raining. I think that will be short lived though.
On 17 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Bright start with interesting cirrus formations up above gradually moving south and giving us a clear blue sky for quite a while, temp 7˚C at 7.30, light SW wind which gradually veered to WNW and quite suddenly got up to furious speed at around 9.30, about gale 6 at a guess, & kept going pretty much all day like that, even increasing before the few showers that we had, it was bloomin' hard going working in this. So temp never got beyond 12˚, even though it was quite sunny at times. Some showers after 8pm and temp back down to 4˚ by 10pm. == Yep, agree, May forecast is pretty WOW!
On 17 Apr 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Richard, really interesting graph. Something Roger Tallbloke has been saying for a while that the next El Nino will release all that the ocean heat to space-but this time with no underlying solar recharge (see Bob's comments below)-& that's when the cold will really kick in. With an AMO turning negative around then the 2020s could be quite cold. Normally the heat takes ~10y for the currents to move the energy to the Arctic & discharge (i.e. '97 super Nino +10=2007 Arctic melt). All the heat Bob said was accumulating but has also been flowing out of Arctic in more open seas. The Arctic melt of recent years, which may have turned a corner going on multi year increase, is a symptom of the heat but will not keep melting when the burners are low. Without an ice 'lid' (melted from below) + with the solar burner turned down low...don't expect our ocean based 'hottest decade' to last. We are wobbling now as the circulation adjusts to a new climate regime
On 17 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Easter looks to be a story of two halves. A low system appears to be moving in from ~Denmark border moving East to West - interestingly an area flagged in the Euro 30d forecast as uncertain. The track is still up in the air somewhat but the south looks wet on Sunday by any means how far north it penetrates, following that high pressure looks to nose back in again. +++ Started fine today but clouds have rolled in and a bit of chill wind. Despite the relatively moist soils & rain early last week plants in pots needing a fair bit of topping up. One thing I noted in looking back at 'cooler' periods like the 70s & LIA is swings from v wet to v dry. Still think summer will be wet overall as 'payback' for the lovely dry weather which seems to have lasted ages (bar short cold dips)..early spring fine periods in past decade really seemed to last not so recently. I recall quite a few years of unblemished Magnolias but the frosts have taken their toll the past 2-3 yrs with bruises hard to miss
On 17 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
At the top of the page Piers says regarding the May 45D forecast "When you see this you will say WHAT? WOW!" ... now that was a good prediction of my reaction! April has been fairly benign* so far with so much sunny blue skies-May Is a different matter & WILL affect growers so strongly advise anyone who has not to SUBSCRIBE. Looks to be a bit like some Mays of my childhood (I remember them well as a few friends birthday's then). +++ *can't remember the date of the electric storm I mentioned recently. It blew my phone line & had to replace socket, broadband hub & tv box! It also hit quite a few in the neighbourhood as I found later. My brother said the flash bang was simultaneous & directly overhead! Charge went down into several houses-never use a phone in an electrical storm! Thankfully BT replaced all without charge but a lesson even for me in how tenuous our 'connectivity' is (a prev power cut hit the power 2 mobile phone masts prev when I was speaking to Piers!)
On 17 Apr 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Richard, regarding 2014-15 as soon to be the two hottest years 'ever', read the disclaimer, at the very bottom of the article, where the true cause of the potential higher temperatures, the projected peak in solar activity as made by David Hathaway from NASA, is NOT given top billing. The sun is our source of heat. If the sun's heat output goes up, obviously that is going to warm things up here. It's too bad solar influence has been rejected by the warmists. The solar flux represents our heat source in photon energy, and the main heat sink on Earth are the oceans. See SIDC SSN vs HadSST3 global temps since 1960, at http://bit.ly/QhxTfg (climate4you.com), notice the ocean ave temps invariably drop on the solar cycle downside, and increase on the SSN upside. Further, the oceans, as reflected in surface temps, accumulate heat above a threshold solar activity level. SC20 from 1965-76 was insufficient & oceans cooled, but SC21+ was enough heat to warm the oceans; ie, solar heat accumulates!
On 17 Apr 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Thank you for the 45day may forecast. Awesome, I have planning to do. Crucial for various plantings
On 17 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Until 2000 highs taken out temps are in a downtrend. In financial markets this is called a triangle....http://jauntycyclist.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/feb-global-surface-mean-temp-anomalies/
On 17 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
latest predictions...Two hottest years ever: 2014 will set new world temperature record – and 2015 will break it...http://www.bitsofscience.org/hottest-years-ever-2014-world-temperature-record-2015-6545/
On 17 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Clive, I've been looking into the 76/77 N hemisphere winter as well. Steven Goddard flagged up the similarities with this past winter & how the shape of the polar vortex was like theshape of the Laurentide ice sheet which sat over NAmerica during the Younger Dryas (including Alaska being ice free).Interestingly there was a tongue of sea extending this year off the coast of Labrador & lNewfoundland. The winter that followed in 77/78 was notable indeed. I'm gathering more detail for a post, but it's made me wonder is this the 'shape' of lower solar activity?
On 17 Apr 2014, Rob wrote:
NASA make link to weather and climate through what they call '' teleconnections''
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/
On 17 Apr 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
CLIVE: The winter of 2013-14 was not cold in the UK, though it was cool enough to allow record snow accumulations in the Scottish Highlands. Last year 's 2012-2013 winter-spring period was exceptionally cold. Much of central and eastern North America has been very cold indeed this year. We now await the 'traditional' Gab o'May' Arctic outbreak, will it come as predicted?
On 17 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
So 0.4% CO2 is toxic to what? An elephant? A mouse? A Human? If you need a 1% concentration in a closed environment (a real greenhouse, not a ficticious one), to kill a mere aphid, I don't think this is relevant to animals which are not insects and millions of times larger. This is where the warmists make their catastrophic errors. You get a biologist making comments about chemistry and geologists making comments about meteorology yet neither have researched the subject rigorously enough to give a sensible statement; relying on something they touched on in university 35 years ago is not good enough. This is why most warmists statements of fact are so illogically stupid in the extreme. Wiki states that each human produces around 1kg of CO2 per day; how long before the Agenda 21 cull begins?? Wiki shows a diagram (re:'toxicity'), that contradicts their own previous statement about toxicity levels. Their facts are just not consistent BUT THE TRUTH ALWAYS IS...!
On 17 Apr 2014, Paul,Bedfordshire wrote:
Richard. The statement "Taking action to curb carbon emissions is, at its core, a moral imperative, the Church teaches" is not in any way Catholic Teaching. It appears to me tobe an interpretation of a statement by the Catholic Bishops of the USA by the author of the article. Catholic teaching is in the Catechism of the Catholic Church and comes from the Vatican, not the Bishops of one nation. The Catholic Church has expressed great concern about the destruction of the environment and lack of respect for nature (which is mentioned in the article) something I doub't Piers would disagree with. Of course a good example of lack of respect for nature is treating plant food as poison and trying to supress it, in the process forcing up the price of food and fuel and making the poor even poorer, while enriching wealthy landowners by paying them subsidies to grow windmills and solar panels instead of food.
On 17 Apr 2014, Clive wrote:
The very cold and snowy conditions during the winter and spring may be the shape of things to come in the future winters of the UK. Last year had a been very mild, very wet and stormy in the UK with extensive flooding. The cold in America could eventually transferr over to the UK. 1976/77 winter cold and very snowy in the US did transferred to the UK in future winters. Look at the winter of 1978/79 was very cold and snowy in UK. Could the US 2013/14 be the shape of things to come in UK.?
On 17 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Glorious day yesterday (16th) in the central fells of Cumbria. Bitterly cold NW wind at 9am around 1300ft but by 2pm in the valleys the cars outside temp` thermometer was reading 18C. A friend and I spent yesterday doing important environmental work, burning lots of fossil fuels in an effort to supply the planet with plenty of CO2 so the trees and plantlife can thrive, thereby averting future species decline. I want to help mother nature all I can, not follow the creationist textbook illogic of reducing CO2 so that not only plants and trees suffer from starvation but ultimately plant eating animals will suffer too. >> Quote: "At very high concentrations (100 times atmospheric concentration, or greater), carbon dioxide can be toxic to animal life, so raising the concentration to 10,000 ppm (1%) or higher for several hours will eliminate pests such as whiteflies and spider mites in a greenhouse." source Wiki. So higher CO2 = less insecticide required = another win-win for higher CO2.
On 17 Apr 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
CLIVE: yes I see the GFS charts are also predicting this northerly outbreak late April/May. This appears to have a long period of cyclicity and this cold spell in early May has earned it the title of
'The Gab o'May' in the folk lore of northern Scotland.
On 17 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Lorraine.... Drill a hole in the bottom of your rain gauge. Fit a plastic plunger through the hole (light sliding fit), with a circlip around the top to prevent it dropping through the hole. Fit a small spring under the circlip so the plunger is pulled tight up to the bottom of the gauge. Glue a neoprene seal around the plunger at a position where it will create a water-tight seal when the spring is still under plenty of compression. Then attach a length of fishing line to the end of the plunger running it over a guide, something like a small plastic pulley wheel which spins loosely on a small nail would suffice. Run the fishing line to a window close to the rain gauge. When the gauge needs emptying, read the rain level with a pair of binoculars, then pull on the fishing line emptying the gauge. When you release the fishing line, the plunger will automatically reset itself due to the increased spring compression. Check water level before and after fitting plunger so readings accurate.
On 17 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Prof Michael Williams of NUI Galway discovered evidence of a 7,500-year-old drowned forest on the northern shores of Galway Bay,..he says" if we examine past climates which have existed on Earth, we see that at present the Earth is cooler, sea levels are lower and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are less than they have been for most of Earth history, ...“ So we can expect sea levels to rise another 10m-20m, over the next few tens of thousands of years... ..Rapid climate changes occurred, some by as much as 16 degrees, in time frames as short as decades,” he says, and we are living in one such interglacial stage now. “Even if industrial development had not occurred, the Earth would still have warmed since the last ice retreat 11,000 years ago.” ..http://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/galway-s-drowned-forest-shows-climate-change-is-nothing-new-1.1764077?page=1
On 17 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The storm has hit our region http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/9954165/Wild-weather-causes-power-cuts and also the West Coast of the South Islandhttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9952521/Gales-rain-cause-havoc but so far we've been lucky not to have the gales force winds here, just very heavy rain.
On 17 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The weather is now worsening over the whole of NZ and is reported to be the tail end of cyclone Ita.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9952521/Gales-rain-spread-south. If it is the end of Ita it seems to be powering up again during the R3 period as it hits NZ. We've had over 130 mm of rain in the last 8 days with plenty more to come and I don't feel like going outside to empty the rain gauge at the moment!
On 17 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub wrote:
Houghton's faith is in serving & pushing Agenda 21-i.e. enforcing hardship upon the poor &, intentional or otherwise, killing them-the climate priests like to admonish us slaves whilst they suck on Caligula's teat! Eco Christians are to religion what Michael Mann is to both modesty & observational science. Something I was aware of, but neutral too, when I was a warmist was that some of the most 'evangelical' were people of spiritual belief. You embrace (even admire) them in a 'movement' not because of their faith but because they share the same goals/values. Which leads me to Climate Moron of the month which goes to...
Uber climate alarmist Joe Romm. He thinks (the non) melting of the Arctic in 2013 has caused the extremes in the USA this past winter. So what happened in the winter of 1976/7, which has a remarkably similar pattern (warmth in Alaska too) when there was considerably more ice in the Arctic? === http://bit.ly/Qqk5ib + http://bit.ly/1hWsUpT
On 17 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub wrote:
I've been following Richard's (jauntycyclist) comments @WUWT on Jim Steele's excellent piece on 'The Year of living Dangerously' [with the facts] where ... "Hollywood’s Don Cheadle partners with Christian climate scientist Katharine Heyhoe to convince fellow Christians that they should trust the climate scientists who blame the misery brought by a Texas drought on rising CO2." === http://bit.ly/1kzUqPt === see also === http://bit.ly/1nrcZ8r === Contrast the treatment of Dr Roy Spencer who is attacked for his faith, simply because he does NOT believe enough in the unseen mystical power of CO2. If he did his faith would be immaterial. It's now quite common to compare the IPCC+Iraq due to 'sexed up' reports trying to goad the masses to support a fictitious fight to 'serve a higher purpose'. Remember how the BBC were attacked for revealing Dr Kelly's alleged words about 'sexing up' the Iraq dossier? "In war, truth is the first casualty
On 16 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub wrote:
Very good podcast 'Introduction to "Climate Extremes'" by Ben Davidson (Suspicious0bservers) with Piers getting a mention around the 27min mark. === http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R4BPTjfXOA === it's done on Google hangouts. Could be an idea to do something WA wise on this platform? (it's a bit like Skype) It would make it fairly easy to raise Piers profile by having a bigger WA presence on YouTube and other social media platforms like Twitter & Facebook (we could live post questions for Piers to answer) we could even have guests such as Ben or others in the climate debate. Thoughts?
On 16 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Bright start but clouding over pretty quickly, 6˚C at 7.30, breezy from SW and damn cold when exposed to the wind. Like yesterday, if it hadn't been for the wind, it would have been reasonably warm; instead we got only 12˚ at best, 10˚ at 9.30pm. According to Piers' 30d forecast we should be getting very warm & sunny, Euro maps pretty close to actual situation. == Agree with Michael that eco christianity is an insult to Christians. Read a bit of that interview with Houghton, not impressed. Everything gets hijacked by the Warmists, including religion. I know it is a bit of an assumption in this blog that religion = bad, but I think a bit more discernment is required. After all, according to the Cestui Que Vie Acts 1666 & 1706 which have never been revoked, we're all dead & therefore the state owns our estates (our body), unless we give a sign of life every 7 years, which nobody ever does. Secularism anyone?
On 16 Apr 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Michael, seconded. I also am a practicising Roman Catholic. My instinctive view is that the idea that He would have made the world in such a way that us puny humans could wreck it by lighting a few fires is ridiculous, especially given the complexity and logic with which the material universe was constructed. This would probably be denounced as unscientific(and probably is). Unfortunately for the warmist blasphemers, evidence based science dosent support them either.
On 16 Apr 2014, Clive wrote:
The weather patterns for UK at the last days of April to the beginning of May points to northerly blocking, negative AMO and AO, north to north east winds, jet stream south pattern. A very cold LIA spell perhaps developing. This according to the Weather Online expert charts for the 29, 30 April and the 1. 2 May. Very cold blast for the time of year.
On 16 Apr 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
1F in nearby Pellston last night, 16 degrees below the previous low temp record. We had 15F - no full moon warmup this time. 2"+ snow two nights ago. R4 on 10th-11th delivered what Piers predicted: "Heavy rain, thunderstorms", then totally quiet on 12th as per forecast. R2 windy and cool 13-14, then quiet on 15th as forecasted. UN loonies keep pushing anti-reality storyline with newly enhanced lines of BS - "super BS". One wonders what they will do if SC24 does not peak again and cooling really kicks in. If SC24 peaks again as in Oct-Dec 2013, we'll have more heat and active weather, and the warmists will pounce it on as "more" CAGW "proof" (as if they have any proof as it is...) and their super BS will become "extreme BS". Tornado activity is down again, second year in a row, from insufficient solar activity. Less solar activity this summer will also reduce cyclogenesis (hurricanes), like last year- until many solar flares and higher solar flux triggered Typhoon Haiyan in Oct/Nov
On 16 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
i didn't look at catholics as such just at the religious statements made by those involved in framing the science debate. From what i see catholics have a wide spectrum of those pro and those against although official policy looks to be "Taking action to curb carbon emissions is, at its core, a moral imperative, the Church teaches. ".....http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/02/the-catholic-church-and-climate-change/ ....but the wider debate between catholics includes Cardinal Pell who "claimed carbon dioxide was "not a pollutant" and animals would not notice a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
He said climate change campaigners were following a "mythology" which he said was attractive to the "religionless and spiritually rootless".....http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/16/pope-francis-back-fossil-fuel-divestment-campaign-religions-groups..so clearly some are convinced others not.
On 16 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
eco christian is the term they call themselves. Its the correct term for them. its not an 'insult'. look up eco christian.
On 16 Apr 2014, Michael wrote:
As a devout Roman Catholic Christian I take offence at the term Ecco Christians as not all Christians are Warmists.Certainley not me as I have been convinced by Piers for many years and am also a subscriber of several yaers standing.
It is common sense to most people I think,even Christians and dare I say,Muslims.
On 16 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Eco christianity roots of co2 driven global warming from ex co head of IPCC, ex MetO chief, now at Hadley Climate model centre..."This lack of will is a spiritual problem " & "that not to care for the earth is a SIN" from http://www.christian-ecology.org.uk/houghton.htm..."moral imperative for everybody, not just Christians, to face up to climate change" & "So I think we have to begin to change the way we think and the way we do things in order to have much more sharing in the world" , "The imperative for Christians is to do something about this situation" http://www.ecostreet.com/ecospeak-an-interview-with-ex-ipcc-co-chairman-sir-john-houghton/....also see https://www.scienceandchristianbelief.org/serve_pdf_free.php?filename=SCB+9-2+Houghton.pdf...Even archbishop and Tutu [who wants apartheid boycott of fossil fuel] weigh in all thinking they 'saving the planet' which must appeal to their vision of themselves Given the ex co chair of IPCC views how can it not be a religious crusade?
On 16 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
matt.."That's what commentators on the Guardian seemed to believe".....lol. that about sums them up. A cocktail of ignorance and hate..... A simple check would have shown it was a real paper that i originally posted on the MetO site days before it came out in the national papers but meto blog didn't publish it [but WA did]. I must be banned on Meto blog. They don't like knowledge that moves the forecasting agenda forward. They have no skill yet are closed minds as to why they have no skill.... Sadly meto is in the hands of eco christians and that thinking [see Houghton-also ex co chair ipcc] is dominate at the hadly centre of model making. Eco christians believe they have to save the planet, that industrialisation is the devil, co2 a sin of man, and that climate change will provoke the second coming [no joke]. Look up eco christians and Houghton. Its like Blair mk2. People say co2 is like a religion. Because that's where it comes from. The child reflects the parent.
On 16 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Yesterday was very wet in our region http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/9947393/Wet-and-wild-weather-soaks-region but at least we're having a bit of respite today with sunshine. Tomorrow's forecast fits in with the incoming R3 as R3s are sometimes quite powerful in NZ.
On 15 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Clear as a bell this morning, still and a very slight frost, overnight temp 2˚C, 4˚ by 7.30, great to be alive. An increasing SSW wind got up as the High over Britain transferred eastwards, hot in the sun but cold in the wind, 15˚ max. Mostly cirrus clouds, altocumulus by evening, temp down to 7˚ by 10pm.
On 15 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Met reported 17 deg @ Phoenix park today..been another lovely day here though around 13/14 deg. It has been feeling a little cooler than yesterday due to breeze but still an all round good sunny day for being outside..
On 15 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
i did leave a note on the MetO blog about that highlighting the magnetosphere that protects the ozone from being stripped away is weakening but its been in moderation for a few days now. They must be fed up that usually no one posts on their blogs except people who question them in posts with link to evidence. I only do it out of duty as the UK should have the best forecasting we can get so there is no room for complacent co2 nonsense. £80m a yr. where does it go? when Meto couldn't predict the winter storms till the water was coming thro people's cat flaps yet others called cranks by the 'experts' predicted it months ago using normal meteorological reasoning. Its national sabotage imo.
On 15 Apr 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
I did a new post based on my comms (below) - I include further links to read & Lamb's wry observations regarding infrastructure decisions based on climate 'ameliorations'- the standard order has always been to make 'hay whilst the sun shines' not expect it to last into 'warmish' perpetuity. ===
http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/04/14/the-dirty-politics-of-the-ipcc/
+++ A (slender) positive from the IPCC report === "The shale gas revolution… can be very consistent with low-carbon development… Gas can be very helpful as a bridge technology.” === http://www.thegwpf.org/shale-gas-can-help-to-prevent-global-warming-ipcc/ +++ Great find by Steven Goddard from 1977 when it was "warm in Alaska and the west coast, and very cold in the midwest and the eastern US." ===
http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/04/15/climate-science-scrabble-by-rearranging-the-funding-cooling-becomes-warming/
On 15 Apr 2014, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Richard - I thought that Met Office new forecasting report was an April Fool (along with the new "7 a day" eating advice). That's what commentators on the Guardian seemed to believe. The Met Office reckon it could go as high as 80% accuracy, well, the Met Office and Weatheraction working together could probably get it closer to 90% if only they would lose their bigoted attitude towards Piers. At least BBC weather presenter Paul Hudson has stated he is interested in Weatheraction.
On 15 Apr 2014, James Dent wrote:
Over the last 3-4 days, the UK Met Office forecasts delivered via the BBC (British brainwashing Corporation), have been banging on about "high UV" levels. Not a word of what high is in comparison to some absolute measure. I find that in today's 5-day forecast for Wattisham, Suffolk, UV forecasts are in the 2-4 range. 4 is "moderate", and is forecast for middle of the day times. Another example of 'climate panic'? How soon until we are told that it is due to climate change/global warming/CO2, and we will all die from radiation sickness?
On 15 Apr 2014, Nigella (subscriber) wrote:
Weather obs from East Berks are for bright sunshine but still a distinct chill to the air. There was frost on my car at 7am this morning. We've had a few sunny, dry days now - warm in the direct sunshine in the middle of the day but cold in the shade and at either end of the day. Keeping my fingers crossed for a nice Easter.
On 15 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
TAlberto ARRIBAS HERRANZ Met Office, UK
Ensemble Forecasting Research Group says in a paper "In terms of model formulation, there are two main sources of uncertainty: first of
all, only imperfect models are available, and second, the resolution of these models
is limited. The place where both factors more clearly come together is in what is known
as physical parameterizations (i.e. the representation of the effects of processes occurring
at unresolved scales using comparatively simple deterministic functions of the resolved
variables). In any of them, the value of a large number of empirical-adjustable parameters
and thresholds present is somewhat arbitrary, either because of being based on incomplete
physical knowledge of the process or because of having been tuned to give optimal
results for a test case that is not necessarily representative of more general applications
(Yang and Arrit 2002). "....contd
On 15 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
MetO long range forecasting revisited. MetO made a big noise about a breakthro but in farmers weekly we learn what the breakthro is..." the computer model looked back at the past 20 winters, including the extreme winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 as well as the mild, stormy winter of 2011-12, and predicted the weather with 62% accuracy.
The Met Office believes the model could be refined to predict winter weather at 80% accuracy.
Dr Alberto Arribas, who helped develop the forecasting system, said: “The forecasts are very computer intensive and this currently limits forecast accuracy. "...which just looks like a request for 'more funding.....http://www.fwi.co.uk/articles/08/04/2014/144064/met-office-unveils-new-long-range-winter-forecast-system.htm... meanwhile i did send them links to people who had correctly forecast the winter from 3 months out using nothing but normal meteorological reasoning with no supercomputer but that would destroy the co2 causality claim
On 15 Apr 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
U.S. Navy Fielding Weather-Predicting Sea Drones...."Atmospheric meteorologists predict weather about seven to 10 days out. Ocean meteorologists can give fairly accurate, educated guesses about 30 days out......http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/12631#sthash.YzI9wHSz.dpuf"
On 14 Apr 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
...cont...Cheats & Climate Morons look at these periods & draw a long line into the future. I can do the same thing between 10am-12pm (+0.95C/hr today) & say it will be 25C at midnight! My Twitter moniker is (ironically) based on that arbitrary figure/'tipping point' which came & went just like 2012 passed us by. Now it's 450ppm...(from the beeb article) "To be sure of staying below 2 degrees, the amount of carbon in the air needs to be around 450 parts per million by 2100." In the 'pause' (plateau) CO2 went up ~30ppmv with no associated temp increase. A similar thing happened during the cool 1950-80 period, CO2 went up temps most certainly did not follow.* They really are making it up as they go along creating fictitious 'deadlines' like the shop in the high street that always has 'last closing days of sale' all year round. +++ * many years from now when they average temps at the century scale the 'unprecedented', 'runaway' temp rise of ~1979-2000 will be 'smoothed' away.
On 14 Apr 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
BBC headline - World must end 'dirty' fuel use - UN. My headline "World must end 'dirty' UN politics using world to further their 'dirty' agenda." This from the beeb report on the 'Panel for Science Denial' ... "Driven by a global increase in population and economic activity, global surface temperature increases will be between 3.7C and 4.8C in 2100 if no new action is taken." Since coming out of the LIA we warmed ~1C & in past ~30yrs the rate is 0.35C (roughly +1C/century) in contrast to lower end computer predictions of 1.5-4.5C/century. Short term warming periods as we had before the 'pause' are not unprecedented. When discussing the downturn in temps from 1950 HH Lamb said "even during the Little Ice Age : the mild periods around the 1630s, 1730s, 1770s and 1840s must have been quite impressive."...cont...
On 14 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Brilliant clear sky this morning, 5˚C and a strong & cold NNW wind, with a few beefy showers in the morning but mostly sunny, typical Easter weather, I would say; in the 40 years we've been up here balmy Easter days can be counted on the finger of one hand, that's what it feels like at any rate. Great day though, even if it only got to 12˚, and any accumulated water evaporated pretty quickly. Now at 10pm we have a cloudless sky & soon-to-be full moon, the wind has dropped, as has the temp, to 4˚ and I won't be surprised if we wake up to white grass tomorrow. == Gerry: I think the MetO use that little cardboard donkey with the hessian tail, so your observation IS scientific :-)
On 14 Apr 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
None weather link but great news and intensely fascinating >> http://nyti.ms/Q6FflI << Then definitely a weather oriented link with seriously bad news for Canadians living in Winnipeg >> http://iceagenow.info/2014/04/winnipeg-water-pipes-stay-frozen-july/ << and no better across the USA >> http://wxch.nl/1kcDY9W << ............... Weather wise: Its been lurvely and warm in the sun with a very chilly breeze but that NW wind has eased and seems to be gradually warming. ............ Lorraine ... After a heavy rain period in the UK during an R5 the rain very often overstays it`s visit by a day or two. It`s usually the accuracy of the start of the rainy period that I praise Piers for.
On 14 Apr 2014, Steve wrote:
As someone who works in aviation I can see how the high level of solar activity we have had in the past year or two has "pepped up" the atmosphere - stronger winds and gusts are more normal. The air is definitely more "alive" with strong thermals, wind shear etc. I was wondering in general how long this period of strong solar influence is going to last before it gets back to the quieter times we used to have - many years more or is it nearly over?
On 14 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
What a beautiful day, very warm loads done in the veg garden :D
On 14 Apr 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Fantastic sunshine here in Bucks.Well done piers your April forecast is going to the script.I see the high Bishops of Carbon delusion are at their games again funny they go to Berlin where the wall once stood knocking it down did not Kill communism it simply migrated westwards and what ever you do dont mention SNOW!!! Their faces turn a funny colour
On 14 Apr 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Dry and sunny over the Downs this weekend. I was working in the garden and found it chillier than I expected on Saturday. There was more cloud around than yesterday when it was clear blue sky. Warmer, especially in the sun. Sunny in London today, but still chill in the morning. - I don't know why we are surprised by the IPCC rantings and their repetition by the BBC. They are trying to get a treaty signed in Paris and are probably trying to get people to contact their MPs in panic to get them to sign up to more job destroying lunacy such as the ending of coal mining in the UK with centuries of supply still left. Carbon taxes have made coal unwanted and so cheap mining here is uneconomic. - Has anyone else noticed a large amount of blossom on laurel bushes this year? As this will result in large numbers of berries for the winter, is this a sign of a brutal one tocome 2014/15? Not a very scientific observation - so just like the Met O then.
On 14 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Beautiful morning clear blue sky @ the mo and sunshine around 4 deg. @ 8.20 but looks like it's going to be a lovely day, yesterday was fresh & cloudy whilst out on a 2hr walk with my eldest but the sun finally got through the cloud around 3 in the afternoon, a nice start to the Easter holidays will get the children out in the garden happy days :-)
On 14 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Piers this wet weather here is now entering its second week with no signs of a let up despite currently being in a quiet R2 period. Any thoughts on this?
On 14 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Paddy - we had the same IPCC screeching on NZ TV news tonight coupled with an interview with NZ James Renwick climate scientist (again). How much more insane does it get before it gets better? Your guess is as good as mine!
On 13 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another cool day, starting with 5˚C in the morning and rising somewhat reluctantly to 14˚ in the sunny spells we had in between thick cloud cover. Dramatic dark skies in the afternoon with a heavy shower of rain around 5pm, after which the W wind also got up again to quite some strength for a while. Temp back down to 5˚ by 10pm. == More IPCC screeching on the news this morning: that we should increase our alternative power output threefold in order to prevent catastrophe - farmers might be coerced to harness cow farts to keep the lights going :-) How much more insane does it have to get before it gets better?
On 13 Apr 2014, Rob wrote:
more UN rambling.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27008352
On 13 Apr 2014, Piers_corbyn wrote:
THANKS FOR COMMS ALL --- CRAIGM QV Report useful thanks interesting big first quakes the key EVENTS in QV TOP PERIODS, ie QV5,4. Aftershocks just come later. ---- ALL REMEMBER TODAY IS LAST DAY FOR THREE FOR ONE GREAT OFFER, extensions included. Please take it up and pass it on. It stops today Sunday 13th at 23.59z Gmt = Utc = 01.00 14th BST = earlier local time USA, or shortly after. Thank you.
On 13 Apr 2014, Clive wrote:
It we were to look at summers of 1983 and 2003 both of these summers were very warm with heatwaves.
The summers that followed both took a very different path.
Both 1984 and 2004 I think had plenty of warm weather in the spring.
1984 carried on to become a very dry and warm summer.
2004 on the other hand went down hill to become a very wet misable summer with the fourth wettest August on record. (Boscastle floods happened that summer)
2013 was another summer similar to 1983 and 2003 very warm with heatwaves.
2014 wait and see..
On 13 Apr 2014, John Planet wrote:
I don't think I would like the warm weather to come too early. The last several years has shown us that very warm weather coming in the spring months has lead to a poor summer. It would be better for the spring to be on the cool side and the warm weather to wait to come in summer proper.
Hot weather coming in April maybe gone in June.
On 13 Apr 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Its been raining since last Tuesday with a brief respite yesterday morning when the sun shone and the temperature went up to about 22 c. That changed in the afternoon with wind and cloud and an overnight southerly change. Today cooler (about 16 c) and rain from late morning. Although we're now in an R2 there seems to be no immediate let up with this rain. On a lighter note, the NZ Met Service website 10 day forecast states "Forecasts and temperatures for days 1-5 are produced by MetService meteorologists. Forecasts and temperatures for days 6-10 are automatically generated by MetService's computer weather modelling system" Well, that certainly explains a lot!
On 12 Apr 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Very large shallow quake - EMSC has it at M7.8 (USGS M7.6) reported off the coast of Solomon Isles (NW of Auz) 2014hrs (all times UTC) follwed by an M6.2 aftershock 10mins later (USGS not reporting this yet). According to USGS in less than 48hrs we've had 7 M6+ quakes 5x M6, 2x M7. The QV period is 10-11/4 so within the normal +/-1d tollerance. Bar aftershocks and with the large southern hemisphere coronal hole rotating away this should ease but there is a QV5 upcoming. +++ Paddy/Russ yes hope to get pebble skies up again but have been waylaid with sickly family members (all okay). Still looking for a more permanent solution for pics as have some lovely formations the past few weeks +++ CET April 10.4 (+3.7C) provisional, to the 11th. By contrast NE US having coldest on record so far === http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/04/12/northeast-us-having-their-coldest-year-on-record-so-far/
On 12 Apr 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Cold morning after a fair bit of overnight rain (as measured by my highly sophisticated rain gauge: a wheelbarrow left standing), 6˚C at 7.30, some further showers but then drying and brightening, all accompanied by a very strong WNW wind, occasionally almost gale force, quite wild for a Quiet period, Azores high stronger than predicted by Piers in Euromaps 12-15 Apr - though that could still change. 14˚ max, even though it was very sunny at times, wind kept a damper on temps, back down to 7˚ by 10pm in a moon and starlit sky. Again a typical spring day as we can have them here: you got your sun, so don't whinge about the wind :-)
On 12 Apr 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
8 deg. and cloudy @ 8.00a.m slight breeze feeling warmer than yday, showers look possible... Watching the met & another site start to change their outlook for nxt midweek onwards here already, although they still seem unsure which way it's going to go..
On 12 Apr 2014, occassionally David wrote:
So, not much 'scorchio' this summer then? Boo! I love it when it's 'scorchio'.
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