Comments from Piers
WELCOME to WeatherAction !

26+27th Massive Storms developing in WeatherAction 'R4' 26-27th
 Br+Ir+Eu (maps below) 

Xmas Offers now ended. 
All Winter Months Dec+Jan+Feb £30, Eu30, $30 
for B+I 45d, Eu30d, USA 30d CONTINUES 

24 + 25 Dec Happy Xmas 
Current Weather Commentary
Don't lose out DO IT NOW! Thank You Offer closes 24:00 Xmas day (00hr 26th) - Offer Closed]

Xmas day
AMAZING! match between WeatherAction Forecast 6 weeks ahead for ~27th Dec and Met Office short range.
"This storm is in another of our Red Warning R4 periods. This will be big and dangerous - with STRONGER WINDS THAN METO WILL EXPECT FROM eg 26th. There is more to come after this one too", said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist WeatherAction.
YOU NEED to subscribe to WeatherAction if you dont already! 

24th Brit+Ire+Eu
Forecast users will have noticed that while our forecast for ~21-24th Dec (LOW confidence, 70%) correctly predicted very mild conditions Br+Ir and less mild later in N/W, the winds were underestimated. 
Nevertheless (and well done Rohan winter subscriber, Croydon - see Comms below) forecast users applied the WeatherAction Rule that WHATEVER the forecast outcome detail in an R4 or R5 the standard Met forecast winds will need enahncing - That was confirmed.

The quieter 24-25th (No significant solar factors) looks like being confirmed. 

Subscribers to 45d Br+Ir or Eu will notice the remarkable similarity between MetO for Frid 27th and WeatherAction dartboard Low forecast.WITH THE NEW R4 THIS SPELLS DANGEROUS WEATHER ON FRIDAY 27th. WATCH THIS SPACE . We will also discuss what is coming around New Year's Eve / Day

25th & 24th USA forecasts
 in run-up to Xmas and Xmas itself have been turning out excellently (see Comms from users).

Sudden Stratospheric Warming breakthrough
Thanks to all for passing on this news - please continue. This is a very important advance

23 Dec

=> ALL 30d services - Br+Ir, Eu, USA - from 22nd give rest of Dec FREE and subscription payment starts JAN. 
This is vital for all in USA, Brit+Ire and Europe as Top Red 'R4' and 'R5' solar-weather periods ramp up travel chaos.

=> ALL Services 12months for 8 - offer ends on 25th <= Double top value till First night of Xmas!  THANK YOU! say subscribers "This is the smartest prez in town!" 

=> AND NEW on 23 Dec - Do it now 
If you have some of a sub to run you might wish for somethinmg like one of these Xmas deals. 
Here's the answer for any WeatherAction service you are subbed to;
Get a 6 month sub (charge 5.5m) and we EXTEND YOUR EXISTING SUB by 9 month
We have all details so that's all you need do. [Offer closes like others on first night of Xmas / when shown on site if update delays]

Further info below or 

Latest Weather NewsMain Headlines: 

"ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING" Forecasts for SE Canada (Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto) says Robert-Michel of Montreal re ~21-22 and snow hit 18-20 also forecast by WeatherAction and Worst Ice-storm ever says Toronto-Hydro. Report+pics for USA and South Canada 21-24th Dec section of December WeatherAction forecast issued 29Nov below.

Britain & Ireland Keep Close Watch on activity changes in next few days espec 24-25th and see updates. Interesting discussion below and in blog.

"Jet Stream Record speed a fingerprint of mini-ice-age" 
says Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of 
"The record 275mph Jet Stream speed over the North Atlantic on 22nd Dec (below) - reported on TV by Chris Fawkes BBC-MetOffice - accords with our predictions of increasing 'Wild Jet stream' behaviour as the world moves further into the Mini-Ice-Age circulation we predicted years ago. Significantly this record comes during the late Dec series of our 'Top Red ('R4' and 'R5+') Weather periods which we predicted in mid Nov (in Br+Ir 45d forecast). Related dramatic solar eruptions and Auroral displays will reach a crescendo around the turn of the year and recur during January***. 
"Newly errupting active sunspot regions are coming round to be Earth-facing (below) when we predicted and will drive dangerous weather conditions around end Dec and start Jan in USA, Brit+Ire, Europe and the whole world. These events of course are nothing whatsoever to do with the delusion of CO2 driven climate change. Indeed the CO2 warmist protagonists admit they havn't a clue about why the jet stream is so wild whereas it follows totally from our solar-driven theory*. 
"The innuendo 'It's extreme it must be CO2' is a lie. This 'Mini-Ice-Age increase in wild and extreme events will continue for the next 20 years* by which time the CO2 theory and associated carbon tax theft and dodgy and intelectually-strained politicians will be in the dustbin of history"     

***Fuller comments are available in the FREE December Br+Ir forecast which comes now (since 22nd) with all subscriptions to Br+Ir forecasts 30d or 45d and is with the Special All Winter months super deals and the 12months for 8 Xmas Prez Bonanza offer which expires on the first night of Xmas.

* See Piers Corbyn's presentation to GAFTA (Grain & Feed Trades Association) Conference Geneva May 2013:-  

Latest 23 Dec Upper stratosphere warming starting in line with Piers' revolutionary trial prediction (in Br+Ir 45d prod 15Dec) [for peak ~ Feb28-Jan1st (uncertainties)]:

Piers says "This is fantastic news - our, the world's first ever, Polar Upper Stratwarm prediction is coming true - another breakthrough for WeatherAction".   

The Jet Stream and solar pics re above
Embedded image permalink on 21 Dec. Extra active region 1934 (and nearby ones) will be ~Earth-Facing in WeatherAction R4 and R5periods 29Dec-Jan2. (Further details in current Dec 30d and Jan 45d Br+Ir forecasts)

21 December Happy Solstice!
Embedded image permalink

From @CumbriaWeather , : Happy Solstice!

Top Spot 20+21 Dec inc Current Weather Commentary

Get a WeatherAction Subscription Xmas prez for someone!
Send them Subscription USERNAME(Email) / Password with a copy of this WeatherAction Xmas E-Wrapper : below or 

Special Xmas Offer to 25 Dec Only 
12month for charge of 8 x standard single
- See below and Subs page for detail

WeatherAction Forecast Subscriptions - THE Smart present of The Year

=> WeatherAction All winter months Fab Offer for Br+Ir, Eu, or USA 
The "single month" buttons now give access to the 3 winter months on issue for £30, Eu30; $30 respectively. (These are at least 1/3 off). Further info on subscribe button.

=> Sub for 6months for price of 5.5 (each service details via Subscription button)

=> New Xmas offer 12m for price of 8 single standard 
This is for ALL Services including the already reduced 'The Lot' (ALL Web services)
Offer open to 25Dec or when we update site if later. 

THANK YOU  to all new and re-newing subscribers to these three POPULAR offers and those who are getting 6m, 12m subs which are also great value and keep you ahead of the rest for longer. 

THIS Winter is really important both sides of Atlantic IT WILL PAY YOU TO GET AHEAD OF THE GAME! 

Also go there for UPGRADES 
30d=>45d Extends current DEC 30d to JAN 45d+30d for only £10 (£10 per upgraded month)
45d=>75d Extends current DEC+JAN45d (inc30d) to Feb75d (inc all 45d, 30d forecasts); only £30  via Donate button
Xmas offer also applies to Upgrades

Why suffer in ignorance?
WeatherAction forecasts set the pace - miles ahead of all the rest of LongRange offerings in Newspapers, TV, and standard Met Computer models - Brit+Ire, Europe and USA

Latest Weather News

Br+Ir+Eu - Will it or wont it? (issued 20th)
The forecast with weak wintry mix at present (~18-20th, R4, BC 70% confidence) is going well but although the weather, including hail and thunder in SE, as described in the forecast is about right the detailed pressure pattern of a moving "Low sandwich" has not really appeared. Instead we have greater mobility and not time for such a situation to be established. The pre (14-17) and post (21-24)  periods have really merged. [USA monitors will note that such "Low sandwiches" have come in USA when we predicted although they are larger scale affairs.]
The greater mobility is drawing down more Upper/Arctic air in the tail of Lows and the 528mb Mb thickness (=> snow /sleet possible) covers much of Ireland and N England/Wales on MetO 24Dec noon forecast charts. Although the MetO remove these thickness areas from their maps nearer the time in their obscurantist ("Oh no we didnt say that we just didnt say") fashion that gives a good chance on their maps of some sleet or snow falling in some places (hit and miss) on Xmas Day (24hrs). HOWEVER set against that we have 'NSF' (No Specific Solar factors) on 24th and 25th which implies a slow down of development compared with this MetO forecast produced in the middle of the present R4. In which case the 528Mb thickness will keep further North & West. WATCH what happens in this interesting period. 
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF SNOW/NO SNOW XMAS DAY Br+Ir (taking a compromise forecast) is, now (20th), that some places in North & West - eg Eire/NI, N Wales, NW England, Scotland - will get a smattering on some of the betting stations but none in other parts. 
For information although we forecast a 'Green' (ie no snow likely in locations William Hill etc offer) I did not put money down in advance this year because of pre-Xmas low confidence of detail and because the odds are too short for 'Green' and so not in my normal betting policy.

USA + South Canada 
The WeatherAction 3 week ahaead pre-Xmas disruption warning forecast 
in order downwards of events (in this case).

See also 15 Dec News below - Jeff Glover Blog Comms of previous blog for excellent praises of earlier WeatherAction USA+CAN Forecasts

USA + CANADA continuing travel disruption and expected storm, snow and ice over weekend 21-22 superbly captured  in WeatherAction USA forecast of 3 weeks ahead:

21 Dec AccuWeather Reports/short range for weekend 21/22 Dec in line with WeatherAction 3 weeks ahead -

Photos and links 21-22 Dec USA + S Canada 
WeatherAction Annual Xmas Open Meeting and Party FRID 20th Dec 2pm 
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street, SE1 1HR 
This was a great event - video extracts later 

19 Dec
Br+Ir+Eu GALES & STORM FORCE WINDS - AGAIN. Damage = trees down and widespread electricity outages in Northern Ireland, Wales, North Britain espec Cumbria and Lancs 17-18th was as in WeatherAction B+I 45d forecast of 4 weeks ahead and repeated in 30d ahead for ~14-17th (+/-1d); Vid Report

(16/17/) 18 Dec Top Spot
=> WeatherAction Bri & Ire JAN 2014 full detailed 45d EXCITING! ASTOUNDING! forecast uploaded {and typo on 1-3 Jan corrected at 13:30Gmt 18Dec}
Piers says: "Subscribers will be really interested in this forecast both for the very important weather developments in Britain and Ireland with some notes on Europe and for the 
extra solar and upper atmosphere forecasting now including Stratospheric warmings.  
This is undoubtedly one of the most important forecasts ever produced by WeatherAction and I commend it and urge subscribers to convince others to also subscribe. Thank you".

=> WeatherAction Bri & Ire FEB 2014 "ESSENCE" 75d ahead forecast is now uploaded 
This will be updated into '60d' at end of Dec. The 75d service ('Single' £60) includes everything in 45d and 30d.

IF YOU WANT JAN AND FEB NOW and have already subscribed to the All Winter months B+I deal; for £30 you can UPGRADE to 75d - including all 45d, and 30d. Just pay  £30 via the donations button. We will see that and change your 45d service to 75d. This is the same total £60 as if you had subcribed first as 75d. Thank you

Note Publication of official public information from WeatherAction is welcome but forecasts are copyright and confidential to subscribers and small numbers of close associates. Unauthorised illegal circulation or use will be treated as a police matter. Thank you.

If you want to know where winter is going in Brit & Ireland these forecasts will help you. Various posted 'Comments' from bogus email addresses asking that question have not been published.

=> THANK YOU ALL for great feedback Brit+Ire+Eu & USA during this important R5 ~14-16th. (weather period 14-17th) Please pass on the success news to others who might then subscribe to the current ALL winter months offer for only (£/$/Eu depending which) 30.

=> We have had an increasing amount of spam recently from warmist trolls who pretend the NH winter equates to the first fortnight of December in England. This nonsense comes while it snowed in Egypt (below), for the first time in 112 years it appears, LOL!
View image on Twitter

15 Dec 22:00hrs GMT 17:00 EST - A race for the very Top Spot
If you are from USA and considering subscribing you MUST read this luminously glowing rec from Jeff Glover USA
On 15 Dec 2013, jeff glover wrote:
Piers-me and many of my weather cohorts here in the U.S.A. follow your forecasts very closely and are most impressed with your professionalism but are particularly in awe of your accuracy regarding your long range forecasts pertaing to North America. A good friend of mine=Mr. Joseph Bastardi-has nothing but kind words to say about your forecasting. Most of my weather comrades are supporters of the fact that the Little Ice Age is knocking on the world's door and soon will be in full ecidence around the globe. they also believe as you and Mr. Bastardi belive that the co2 matter is an agenda driven fallacy. Keep up the great work-and oh by the way tomorrow I am commencing subscriptions with Weatheraction-as are some of my compatriots. Jeff G from the great State of Washington
Piers says: "WOW, JEFF, THAT's MAGIC. Without subs we are nothing. It's especially an honour to get a good word from Joe B, who after all - if the weather machine were an old-fashioned petrol driven racing car - would be THE TOP MECHANIC who knew every cog and trick, maybe not why it did things but how it does them. Hence his superb grasp of what weather models do and do not do and medium and medium-long range forecasting.
We currently only have a tiny % of even farmers subscribing in UK, Eire, Europe or USA+near Canada. We need to get more USA + Canada subscribers for whom weather is a serious matter and then expand into longer range including more of Canada and then further expand numbers to a tipping point where a substantial % of people seriously business-affected by weather subscribe. Then we'll all be motoring!

15 Dec 13:30hrs GMT At the (now almost) very Top Spot

RadioYork interview is on   
Piers starts at 42 mins in.

Piers says: "Thanks for listening, if you did, to my interview by Paul Hudson on his "BBC Radio York" (get recording via internet) Weather Show today Sun 15 Dec. Paul is a great interviewer, gave very positive views on our success rates and enabled me to get some good points across. One point left out - possibly because of the strength with which I made it - was my comment on the Daily Express weather Headlines (other than an implied view near the start of the interview) - which I described as 'Foolcasts not Forecasts'
My first extensive and substantial snow of winter ~NYEve / NYDay statement, does not mean some more confined and limited even if briefly heavy and blizzardy in wind on mountains with some lower level smatterings before that has been ruled out. Such are still likely but my Xmas onwards comment was about substantial and extensive amounts which should settle (not a point asked about but that is important).
If you want more forecast information please subscribe below. All forecasts include the present month, eg when you subscribe to 15-45day ahead or for the 3m offer or 6/12months. How about getting a Sub for a friend for Xmas! 
Thank you".

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Samples, Skill and Usefulness

For samples of any past forecasts (eg last few months) go to:  The first letters indicate the region of the forecast:BI, Eu, USA....
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For recent user live assessments, recs & notes also see blog comments in previous blog.

Info: R5 ~14-16Dec both sides of Atlantic

For Top User Comments on developments see Dec 15th, Bob Weber N Michigan USA; Craig M, Berkshire UK in Comms at foot of previous BlogPost and Bill Smith and Dave quoted in text below.

Sat 14th Dec Special 'End-Game' storm Warning Br+Ir+Scandinavia
- commenting on Standard Met short-range forecasts (normally of storms long range warned by WeatherAction).
After Forecast Map Newest News on Top

Forecast map of 29days ahead. 
Note the graph page in fullforecast shows mild over w/e 14-15 and colder 16-17th and EU forecast shows Storm track towards N/Centre Scandinavia (Not a diving Low which can give N Sea storm surge)


Shortly after posting the warning below someone posted on twitter words to the effect 
"It looks like a normal winter Wet & windy event"
Piers says: "This twitter-er needs to wise-up. We do not make forecasts by using standard Met maps that is precisely what we do NOT do. We "see" them and say how they need to be modified in general terms. Or to be more precise well ahead of when they are produced (29days in this case) we know the basic things they will suggest AND HOW THEY WILL BE WRONG in certain circumstances (eg R5s)"

Later WeatherAction site got postings (as in Comms below):
Bill Smith Applecross Peninsula is just East Of The Isle of Skye
I see that Applecross peninsula recorded 102 mph ,and further east Tomintoul area recorded 111mph today...........

Your forecast for 14th-17th is playing out in from of my eyes, including the thunder and lightning (not terribly common in Dunfermline. Well done Piers!.


As Issued 1300 Gmt 14DEC WeatherAction STORM WARNING 14-15Dec Br+Ir+Eu.
BBC-MetOffice (Standard Meteorology) FORECASTS HAVE PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATED COMING STORM - Double hit: 14-15th and another hit later on 15th. 
Gusts over 90mph are likely (MO on BBC put tops at 80mph in fc issued Sat lunch). Red Warnings should be issued. WeatherAction R5 (Top Red) period here is ~14-16th.
This follows on the heels of MO underestimating wind strengths in: 
(i) 'Piers storm Oct 28th' for SOUTH Br+Ir + near continent [which was first announced as a serious late October storm by Piers 23 weeks ahead to GAFTA Conference Geneva - WANews43 via 'latest' on home page]
(ii) The 5 Dec N track - 'Diving Low' giving wind damage on land and some coastal flooding with biggest coastal atatcks in Denmark-Nth Holland. (Detailed forecast in WeatherAction 45d ahead released 29days ahead) 
Full details in WeatherActiob 30d (and 45d) Br+Ir and Europe forecasts via Subscriber link above. 
Don't suffer in ignorance - Subscribe! 


USA Maps Developments & extremes 30d, DEC 2013 
10 pages, is in: USA Maps 30d (extreme Events); and 'THE LOT' (All Web forecast); Services

Br+Ir 30d DECEMBER 6 page inc graphs+Maps is 
in Br+Ir 30d, 45d & 75d and 'THE LOT' (All web forecasts) Services
IT'S ANOTHER MUST HAVE interesting Forecast from WeatherAction 
Do not assume because you've read in papers or seen models of 'What December will be like' that WeatherAction is saying the same. As a fact WeatherAction LongRange forecasts are often different from all others and as a fact WeatherAction has proven peer-reviewed independent well monitored skill and profitable weather-bet results - unlike all the media and Long Range (10d+, 'seasonal') models - which have no skill.  

Br+Ir 45d (January now) SERVICE 23 pages
Br+Ir Detailed 45d forecast inc graphs+Maps  6 pages
with Euro Pressure maps (9pages) Dec + RTQ Forecast (2pages) Dec
and current DEC 30d Br+Ir (6p)

Br+Ir 75d (February now) SERVICE 24 (=>26) pages
BR+Ir Essence of Feb 1 page - which will also be updated in more detail at 60d

Euro maps 30d service comprises 20 pages
- Euromap Regional forecasts - 9 pages
- Euro+ N Atlantic + Br+Ir Pressure map Scenario forecast - 9 pages {also in Br+Ir 45d & 75d}
- RTQ {Red ('R') active weather periods & Thunder/Tornado & Quake (Trial) risk} - 2 pages

Europe Extremes Only, 30d (edit of Region Maps) 9 pages

Europe Pressure Scenario maps 30d DEC 2013 9 pages is loaded into:
Euoromaps 30d; Br+Ir 45d, 75d; The Lot - All Web forecasts
Pressure Maps this month include extra annotations about certain optional possibilities for Eu and Britain+Ireland.

Istanbul snow Pic added 13 Dec

  Euro Map service comprises:

Anyone and new comers. 
Welcome and Do get in touch with any questions / comments / speaking requests. Via the blog below for espec public comments (Please indicate) or via: 02079399946 / 07908734296. 

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 RELENTLESSNigel Farage leader of UKIP nails the Global warming Lie at the European Parliament 
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Comments submitted - 58 Add your comment

On 27 Dec 2013, Bill smith (N E Wales). 45 d sub wrote:

0400 hrs Wind has got up to a real howly with squally showers. I see that 109 mph has already been recorded at Aberdaron (NW Wales), this is definitely a worse storm in these parts than Mondays storm was.
On 27 Dec 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

I would agree that the wind that is blowing on the N Downs at 0145 sounds and looks worse than the Met forecast. The wind is roaring in the trees. My analogy would be to imagine winding down the car window. Breezy at 40mph but at 60mph it is quite noisy. Same would be true for riding a motorcycle in terms of how much wind noise you get. Some of the floods south of the Downs in the Mole area and around Guildford in the Wey area have subsided but see what arrives later today, falling on saturated ground.
On 26 Dec 2013, larkduke subscriber wrote:

Hi all, Piers, this storm which is now beating Ireland is far more viscous than the meteireann idiots were expecting, only in the last hour have they issued a red alert, too late in my opinion. I've been at sea in hurricanes and enjoyed it, purely from the adrenaline rush. this storm is freakish, not yet peaked and our gable end is taking a pounding, hope our ridge tiles hold out. Back on duty tomorrow hope its not a chaos shift. Big up Wizard of Weather.
On 26 Dec 2013, Robert wrote:

As stated Piers, met office have vastly underestimated the wind tonight . Very stormy here in NI, already lost the greenhouse, much worse than the amber warning they gave the other day and this is was just a yellow..
On 26 Dec 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Big, big storm in the Southern Swiss alps in the past 24 - 48hrs. 100 - 150cm of snow in Ticino and on the mountains surrounding the head of the Simplon as well as heavy but slightly less snow in the Saastal and the Zermattertal. Most of the rest of Swtizerland got a nice top up without being snowed in!! See for details……….
On 26 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

26.12.13 Beautiful clear start, not seen the starry sky like that for a while in the morning, sunny all day with a continuous strong S breeze which felt quite cold. Temp 0˚C at 7.30, frosty in all sheltered areas, never rising above 3˚ during the day, but up to 4˚ by 9pm, by which time the clouds of the approaching dartboard low covered the sky. MO gives yellow wind warning overnight & tomorrow on our coastal strip, max gust 57mph, also heavy rain forecast which has already arrived in the Western Isles.
On 26 Dec 2013, Jonathan Hunt - Sub / London wrote:

Today the BBC gave the news that the MET office will offer daily weather report on Solar activity. Their reason was to better prepare the government for extreme weather that may affect Sat equipment etc. Now, their reasoning may have been believable if it was sporadic but daily? I truly believe this is a milestone for you and others that have linked solar activity to weather patterns. The MET is clearly easing into the adaptation of solar factors in their predictions to avoid a massive and public U-turn! It may be sad that they will soon say THEY found the link but deep down I hope you realise yours and others work will be proven right after all and that it made a difference that will be marked in history! Jonathan.
On 26 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn wrote:

YES ITS TRUE! FAB XMAS OFFERS CONTINUE ON 26th until site amended. Without going into detail cannot do update until access to correct computer and holiday means etc. GO BY WHAT ON-LINE SHOP SAYS. THAT STANDS, AS WELL AS 9m for 5.5 extensions to existing subs, until site prices change back. Give anyone you know their last chance today.
On 26 Dec 2013, Man Bearpig wrote:

Looks like the met office have finally given up weather forecasting (at last)
On 26 Dec 2013, Bill smith (45 d sub ) wrote:

First real hard frost here this morning, for quite some time. Lovely sun rise,proper winter scene :) The quiet before another storm :(
On 25 Dec 2013, steven glossop wrote:

Hi Piers, just a quick comment, to say how well your December forecast has gone. And the storm coming in Thur/Fri looks very similar to your predictions made weeks! ago. I wish you all the best with the January forecast. Most other forecasts seem to say a bit average. Has they usually do.
On 25 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

25.12.13 Still a bit windy, cloudy at first, then quite sunny, temp 3˚C at 7.30, later rising to 4˚, altogether a beautiful morning & early afternoon, a bit more cloudy after that. - Piers, I was going to say something about the stormy 24th but I see that you have already mentioned the only 70% certainty and underestimation of wind, precipitation was also much more than anticipated, even in our parts. Will you give some further explanation as to what happened? Wild JS, SSW? In any case, from your EU map 6+ weeks ago and the MO's maps from today for 27th it looks like England will get hit more by this one.
On 25 Dec 2013, Tony Tony wrote:

Nadolig llawen to all fellow subscribes great dec forecast piers will be looking to extend after feb no money to take up the fantastic offer
On 25 Dec 2013, piers_corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:

SEASONS GREETINGS AND HAPPY XMAS TO ALL == Thanks Bob N Mich USA: your note on solar wind speed small uptick and appearance of sudden stratospheric (upper polar) warming (SSWs) is interesting - although probably not unconnected there is definitely a lot more to SSWs. Our weatheraction forecast for these SSWs upper and some lower ones to come are ONLY AT PRESENT in the Br+Ire 45day ahead JAN forecast and will be put into the RTQ FORECAST which henceforth will be issued BEFORE month end. == Re Xmas rather than CHRISTmas I tend to disbelieve Wikipedia because it like WUWT SITE consistently lies about me, nevertheless it might be right on this and thanks RUSS for info. I would note 1. abbrevs such as Xmas are a necessity on twitter. 2. The origin of this festival predates Christ anyway it being a return of the sun after the solstice and an excuse to eat-up the stored food likely to go off before Spring. == ALL thanks for offer uptakes and TODAY YOU TELL SOMEONE ELSE TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!!
On 24 Dec 2013, Spaewife wrote:

Wild day here in the Northern Isles (Orkney & Shetland) low barometer reading so far down to 932hPa sustained winds of around 45mph gusting at present to 60mph (9.30pm). I hope our power stays on so I can cook the Christmas dinner tomorrow. Merry Christmas everyone.
On 24 Dec 2013, Bill smith (N E Wales) 45 d sub wrote:

Wilder day here than yesterday. Hall barometer rose this morning but stuck at 973 mb since 1100 . Windy night only slowly decreasing despite the steady pressure! Best wishes to all at Weather Action,
On 24 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:

Rhys, we here in N Mich were on the receiving end of the "end of the world" Dec 21, 2012 SSW event. Wet heavy snow bent over and snapped off small diameter pine and soft maple trees, cut the power, and I spent my birthday running a chain saw, shoveling a lot of snow, and road clearing. Piers' DEC 2012 forecast was "Very intense Lows* bring blizzard conditions to large area- North/ Central Great Lakes and toward NE bringing Major travel disruption espec 19-21st." Very extensive damage. Once again he nailed it. The weight from that snow bent a 1.25" diameter aluminum tube holding up our TV antenna! Spaceweather for that period shows a moderate rise in solar wind density and speed just prior to the SSW, dropping off thereafter, but whether that was the driver for it is unclear. TODAY our local meteorologist said he's never seen a colder night than last night (-20F) at this time of year. Regional snowfall is at the fourth-highest level on record; highest since '96 in Traverse City.
On 24 Dec 2013, William Downie (n/s) wrote:

It's been a cold day here, with high winds and wintry showers from dawn 'till dusk. The temperature has been sitting at around 3C all day here in Dechmont, West Lothian (460 ft. asl). My wife was struggling to buy me Christmas presents so I asked her to get the 30 day January forecast (my first). We own a house that sits at 950 ft asl and we'll probably have to move into it in late January, so I'm curious about what January might bring, especially after the sudden stratospheric warming! Merry Christmas everyone.
On 24 Dec 2013, Justin (sub) wrote:

HAPPY CHRISTMAS Piers and All! Just to report: MetO said 57 mph gusts here in Bournemouth yesterday eve/night but to me they seemed much higher than that. Probably around 70 - 80 mph in my opinion!!
On 24 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

24.12.13 Fairly clear & windy start WSW'ly, 2˚C. Amazingly, highest overnight temp had been 7˚. Lots of warnings on radio, esp for West Coast & North, highest wind here according to MO around 3pm. Wind strengthening to gale force by 10am, beefy hail shower, painful on face. Afterwards sunshine and increasing gale until about 3pm when it started calming down somewhat. Still windy now at 5pm, but no longer a gale, max temp 3˚C all day. Low off West Coast 927mb/hPa, amazing; some people around the Western Isles might not get home in time, many ferries cancelled. Merry Christmas one and all!
On 24 Dec 2013, Belle End wrote:

Thanks, Jonathan!...I'm also a part-time comedy writer and satirist who likes to parody the AGW brigade...Next week, I'll probably be writing 'as' Ronnie Burka or Connie Lingus! - Seasons greetings to one and all!
On 24 Dec 2013, gazza wrote:

Well, what a lashing of wind and rain last night. Just slightly south of Maidstone Kent here and the river Beult at Stilebridge is at 3.47m . The all time high is 3.73m according the Enviromental Agency website. Garden flooded and water almost over the damp course. We're still better off than others elsewhere in the country. Thinking of sandbagging it come Friday. Just how bad will Friday be Piers?
On 24 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:

Chris Mistry...... A bit of a pointless nit pick there matey. Nothing at all wrong with the use of Xmas instead of Christmas. ....>>> "Xmas is a common abbreviation of the word Christmas . It is sometimes pronounced /ˈɛksməs/, but it, and variants such as Xtemass, originated as handwriting abbreviations for the typical pronunciation /ˈkrɪsməs/. The "-mas" part is from the Latin-derived Old English word for Mass,[1] while the "X" comes from the Greek letter Chi, which is the first letter of the Greek word Χριστός which comes into English as "Christ"." <<< ..... Source Wikipedia....... So it's an abbreviation not an insult...!
On 24 Dec 2013, Suzy Dorset wrote:

Just to say Merry Christmas to Piers and everyone that reads this. So glad to have January forecast, interesting or what. Thanks for being champion at what you do Piers. Ciao X
On 24 Dec 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:

Seasons greetings everyone, have a fantastic Christmas and lets all look forward to a safe and healthy 2014 Our weather in the NW is a little up and down at the moment. Very cold wind at times with temps around 2.5 at lunchtime but the snow promised by the MO did not arrive although they have now told us that we will get some on Thursday. Personally I am watching Piers forecast and waiting until we leave 2013 and head into 2014 because that does look interesting.
On 24 Dec 2013, Steve D (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

After a ferocious night there is widespread flooding in fields and farms across Essex with tree debris absolutely everywhere. Mostly dry today with temps 11c this morning, dropping to 6c in a torrential downpour this lunchtime. Merry Christmas everyone!
On 24 Dec 2013, Michael wrote:

I am pleased that Chris Mistry has requested that you refer to Christmas and not to the secular xmas.I would also state that we celebrate the birth of Christ at Christmas Thank you
On 24 Dec 2013, Ammy Dhesi - Subscriber - Glasgow wrote:

Seasons Greetings! Over the past week its been cold, gusty, and rather wet in Glasgow. The Met Office amber warnings haven't really applied to the the Glasgow area. No snow just a bit of hail (this morning) and then quite bright. Was looking forward to heavy snow but higher ground is getting it all !
On 24 Dec 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Interesting article for all at this site:
On 24 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

23.12.13, unable to post yesterday, absent internet. Very still this morning, temp -1˚C, good frost everywhere on the farm, not just sheltered spots. Hazy altostratus, halo around the half moon, increasing S wind, gradually turning into SE when rain started earlier than f'cast by MO around 10.30; got really heavy until about 3.30, then abated, ditto for wind. Still yellow wind warning for tomorrow, they've upped the max gust speed to 58mph, this afternoon they also put out a yellow wind warning for Friday. After the rain had passed, temperature rose to 6˚C, where it remained up to 10.30pm, by which time the wind had got up again.
On 24 Dec 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:

Merry Xtmas and a Happy New year to you Piers and all your loved ones. Horrendous weather here (Southern Quebec, Canada) last weekend (heavy snowstorm, sleet, fz rain). You nailed both weather conditions and pattern well in advance. Next, your forecast mentions a third snowageddon for the end of the year. The models I saw does not support this idea neither other official forecasts. Taking into account your formidable accuracy and the extent of your research, I am betting on your forecast. Thanks again.
On 23 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:

Bill.... 38mb in 21hrs that is stunning! Lots of people complaining of feeling ill today. Coincidence? Maybe they are all 'under the weather'!....... HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!
On 23 Dec 2013, Rohan (Winter Sub) wrote:

85 mph winds recorded in Croydon, which is 6 miles south of me. Seems to me that the rule that Piers set down (double their forecast effect in R4/R5s) is spot on. Can't wait for early Jan 2014. Want to know more? Treat yourself to a forecast at bargain prices and stay safe, always!
On 23 Dec 2013, Chris Mistry wrote:

Piers could you stop calling Christmas Xmas.At Christmas we celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ not someone called X!
On 23 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:

Has the strat gone into sudden strat warming? I wouldn't mind a polar vortex collapse and a blocking occuring. Anything to get rid of the awful gales after gales scenario we have been experiencing here in the Northern Isles for the past couple of months. A calmer albeit colder spell would be a welcome break.
On 23 Dec 2013, Bill smith N E Wales(45 d sub) wrote:

Amazing,pressure still falling, that's 38 mb in 21 hours from midnight a very wet breezy day.
On 23 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:

No time to read any other posts, sorry. This is DAY FOUR of ongoing +7BF wind in our area! National KNMI only mentioned windy conditions for the West coast, completely ignoring us. Only today have they issued a warning for +100km/hr wind gusts. Just now the wind has picked up even more, but it has been extremely unsettling these past few days. Temps are all over the scale as well, mild during the day but very cold during the evening and nights. Roller coaster ride anyone?
On 23 Dec 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:

NEW subscriber ! Hi Piers, I'm fed up with our standard no use standard met guys, so I've purchased a subscription for "All 3 winter months EUR". Of course I'm very very curious now since I Always promote your work, but didn't have any proof without a subscription. Just 1 question, because this is new of course. Is it it normal that I don't see anything on January & February yet, when is this loaded or am I doing something wrong ?
On 23 Dec 2013, Jonathan Hunt wrote:

"Belle End"! Lol! That cracked me up! also made a mention of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming today. Brilliant stuff Piers! Your November forecast struggled a bit but December forecast is absolutely mind blowing! Really looking forward to seeing how Jan's forecast turns out! Merry Xmas! :)
On 23 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

BELLE-END THAT's THE BEST FORECAST NEWS OF THE YEAR IF NOT THE MILLENIUM. Our - world's first ever - (trial) prediction of stratwarm looks like coming true - It's all in Jan 45d Br+Ir - a place to be. === LEN All I can say is thanks very much indeed, much appreciated. == ALL! IN CASE YOU DO NOT READ ABOVE. We now have an XMAS ONLY LOYALTY OFFER TO EXISTING SUBSCRIBERS - EXTEND ANY SERVICE SUB 9months for only 5.5m. Do it now before you forget on Xmas Day when offer ends. Thank You, Piers
On 23 Dec 2013, Phil Ipswich non sub wrote:

Avaaz are at it again. They think GW is continuing. Perhaps they don't know or perhaps they are run by the authorities.
On 23 Dec 2013, Belle End wrote:

Piers, Joe Bastardi's twitter page is already reporting huge sudden strat warming!
On 23 Dec 2013, Ben (45D sub, Forres) wrote:

For those with an interest in snow (Scotland) this website has an array of useful information and links. And there is plenty of snow throughout highland Scotland, especially over 200m. Lets hope the Britain/ireland January forecast has the same success as over the Pond is having (or not?). Merry Xmas to all Weather Actioneers, safe travels.
On 23 Dec 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Webcam at the Kingshouse Hotel, Glencoe: Plenty of snow at the level of Rannoch Moor this morning - looks like about 10cm. This is about 300 - 400m (can't remember exactly, but about that) on the main West Coast road, the A82.
On 23 Dec 2013, Len Holliday( wrote:

Dear Piers Corbyn, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your family. You have continued on a path that earns you great respect among your peers! Keep up the great work. We have forecast for sometime now that the Winter Of 2013-2014 would be one of the coldest east of the Mississippi in over 100 years. We still maintain that prediction for a number of reasons which are to many to cover here. Also, I agree with you 100% that we are already in the early stages of the next 'Little Ice Age' or worse. The U.S. and the rest of the modern world has no idea what awaits them nor are they ready for such bitter cold that will kill millions world wide! It is very exciting times to be alive if you are a weather forecaster like Matthew and I. We just hope at Firsthand Weather in some small way, we can get the word out so that lives may be saved. If we can do that, at the end of the day it would have all been worth it! Merry Christmas To All From Len & Matthew Holliday! Stay Safe!
On 22 Dec 2013, Nicholas Harrison wrote:

Have a look at this Live Eastbourne Weather feed from the Weather Shop Weather station. Check out the wind speed dial in the middle and see what the maximum speed is and the red mark which shows what was attained. Do they know something we don't about the wind coming tomorrow?
On 22 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Clear start with clouds, the moon still illuminating plenty, strong SSW breeze, 1˚C on thermometer, slight ground frost. Quite a sunny & dry day with us, most of the showers in the west. However, around midday, the wind really got up to pretty near gale force, and although the temperature had risen to 3˚ it felt very much colder, though by dusk it quieted down somewhat and got almost completely still by 9.30pm, by which the temperature had dropped to -1˚, feels like it's going to go down even further. - MO computer said yellow v. windy tomorrow this morning, now not anymore, only ice & snow; for Tues they have downgraded the gust speeds, still yellow. Nail-biting stuff in view of Piers' 30d forecast for this period, I'll say more when it's over.
On 22 Dec 2013, Rob wrote:

MO now predicting the centre of the xmas eve low at 927mb. This one looks different to the previous storms in that the winds will last longer. The last couple have seen very high wind speeds but they have passed by quite quickly . There is I think the potential here for lots of damage.
On 22 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:

Breaking out my special emergency R4 snow shovel today. Exceedingly awesome USA WA R4 forecast periods for Dec 18-20, 21-23. Heavy precip here on 45th parallel with a short break in between. We have 6' snowbanks in our yard - it looks like the end of winter here already, not the beginning! Current "thick sandwich" WA forecast of heavy, powdery snow along with rain/wet snow over Great Lakes and southwards serving up widespread dangerous driving EXACTLY as Piers forecasted three weeks ago. "Warm and humid" in SE USA as forecasted. So where are the skeptics who say chaos theory precludes longer-range forecasting? I've worked & lived outside most of the time year-round since '98, and haven't seen such a bodacious start to a winter since '78. WA forecasts give me a heads-up so I have some idea what I can actually accomplish outdoors in a given month - useful is an understatement - they're invaluable, notwithstanding the scientific aspects that intrigue me as an electrical engineer ;)
On 22 Dec 2013, dr (sub) wrote:

MO are now forecasting a low with a central pressure of 932mb for Tuesday this week for Scotland. Will they issue a RED warning? Will it be justified? Only time with tell.
On 22 Dec 2013, Steven Glossop wrote:

Hi Piers, Without giving to much away about your January forcast. Computer models seem to be all over the place for around new years day time. I know this is a time for some very interesting weather to come for Britain and Ireland. Is this what you expect from the computer models again ? Is it the computer models cant see through the R5. period ?? Hope you can answer. Thanks Steve
On 22 Dec 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:

Hi Piers! I am from Montreal, Canada. Again, you scored beautifully, warning us of disruptive weather conditions this weekend. In our neck of the woods, we gathered near 40 cm of snow since Friday, blowned by 80 km wind gusts this morning (22cd)! Absolutely outstanding... Forecast made 3 week in advance! I took your advice into account and saved myself a lot of energy. Thanks again!
On 22 Dec 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:

So what have we now then folks, well at least for the North West, is this the calm before the storm. MO now advising us of snow on Tuesday so we could have a white Christmas here. Piers told us about this weeks ago however but the January stuff is really interesting, quite a mixture but it looks as though the winter tyres will be useful. Fell flat on my back and arse on Friday just walking off the end of my drive, didn't see the ice, well its a bit see through isn't it, so thank goodness that I was carrying my laptop bag over my shoulder otherwise it could have been even more painful or even fatal
On 22 Dec 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

The winter solstice brought nothing but incessant rain on the North Downs. Heavy rain this morning such that at 7.30 there was still no daylight coming through my curtains. Cleared through later to sunny spells. Booker's Telegraph column today has insight into the mindset of the Warmish. he has been made aware of a passage in The Blunders of Governments, by Anthony King and Ivor Crewe referring to Group Think. They quote the Yale psychologist Irving J Janis from his book The Victims of Group Think. Janis explains how those suffering from Group Think are under the illusion of unanimity and regard anyone who questions the consensus as the enemy, and that everything is justified in the pursuit of the cause. Sound familiar to anyone?
On 22 Dec 2013, Maria 45day sub wrote:

yes I agree re january, it is making it so much easier to plan appointments and use the decent windows. Very `interesting` month ahead
On 22 Dec 2013, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

936mb central barometric pressure on the storm inbound to Scotland tomorrow (Monday) night into Christmas Eve, followed by a similar strength storm (946mb) on Friday following the same track. Looks like 2013 will go out with a bang. Who knows what 2014 will bring? Well, subscribe and you shall :-) Well done Piers with your success this year which is building as the SLAT techniques advance with experience. Can't wait for the winter to unfold... Merry Christmas everyone and a Happy New Year!
On 22 Dec 2013, Karl (ocassional sub0 wrote:

I just upgraded to the 45 day and wow! What a sequence of weather we are due, I cant wait for it all to unfurl. I thoroughly expect the met office to struggle with their forecast, typical it wont be. For those wanting to know about snow or lack of, it is a must. Happy Christmas to Piers and Weather Action, keep up the good work!!
On 21 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Fairly clear start, overnight low of 5.˚C, thickening cloud cover during mid morning, rain starting around 11.30, some of it quite heavy in the ever strong SSW wind, stopped by 2pm. Max temp 6˚, back down to 3˚ by 10pm, wind turning into a more W'ly direction.