On 05 Apr 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Easter Sunday - happy Easter - blue skies but freezing cold in Guernsey, sun is giving off heat in sheltered spots but cold northerly wind. No sign of Swallows in previous years have seen them as early as March 27th
On 30 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Alistair netweather forums are a useful learning tool for understanding charts etc but you have to laugh at how the members get sucked in by every cold chart on offer in winter. I try to use the charts off there and other sites as a guide and to compare piers possible scenarios. My general rule is if all the models agree 3 days out and then there is an 80% chance of that scenario happening, others may disagree. Looking at Feb It has to be said I can't see how the heavy snow falls are going to come at the minute. Solar factors are going to need to shake things up alot I would have thought? The cold is here but the pieces of the jigsaw are not in place as yet!
On 30 Jan 2015, Alistair from Hull wrote:
I can understand the frustration of those who have not seen any snow to date.
I also have only seen one light snowfall here in Hull this year which was gone the next day, I must admit to feeling a little envious when I watch and see on TV, several inches falling in various places while we remain just damp with a little frost if we're lucky. At the moment I'm not in a position to be a subscriber as other things have to take priority, so for the time been I will have to rely on net weather forums for model watching information or failing that simply watch the lamppost outside my house, lol.
Speaking of the Net weather forum, I see that some on there are predicting a breakdown next week and that from mid-Feb we will see a phase when a stronger jet will become displaced to a more northerly position, with stronger zonality.
On 29 Jan 2015, brandon wrote:
To be fair to asim I do agree with what he is saying gets frustrating bad winters are overestimated have not seen snow here properly since 2010, to be fair asim I can give you a bet we won't get a decent amount down here iv seen snow down here I would come back in 2016 winter as the south in my eyes are 98% will not see decent snow until then
On 29 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Asim - winter over for London? Whilst it might not be snowing where you are have you not looked about? It's currently snowing in Kent, Reigate, Essex & South+East London - albeit light. I'm about 30 miles from London & had snow earlier today (Frozen solid now in my garden & it's frrrrreeezing out!). A line of snow showers heading south from East Mids down into Kent. Following behind in early hours the rare polar low. That's just the overnight situation. There are warnings in effect over the weekend which the MetO say are likely to change - & as seen today at v. short notice (Mon/Tues interesting but too far off as yet). Snow may be localised & may miss your area but a mile or so away a different story. You are more favoured with NE/E flows than me in Berks. Seriously why be pessimistic when it's not even Feb & this is quite clearly the best winter spell for many in two years? Take a breath. Snow at Easter is more likely than Xmas & that's 9 wks away! :)
On 29 Jan 2015, Dave Leicester wrote:
Just as the first blizzard hit today there was a massive clap of thundersnow!
On 29 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, WNW’ly breeze all day though not as strong as yesterday, ground frozen again, only thawing in the bits exposed to the sun, 3˚C max and yes, another sunny day, 0˚ by 10pm and no snow. MO is giving yellow snow warning up to & including Monday, the set up seems to be getting into place, i.e. High to the West & Low to the East. I have a fairly reliable snow indicator/forecaster: when my wife gets really thirsty in winter, it usually snows, so we’ll see. :-) == PIERS, thanks for the heads-up; trouble is, I write my report last thing at night and often don’t read the home page, just the comments.
On 29 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Piers, could it be that the wild Jetstream is actually getting 'wilder' as we rapidly plunge into LIA? the set up we are in and ongoing by the way is exceptional.....but the early onset.....could we maybe get worse?
On 29 Jan 2015, Kris (Winter Subscriber) wrote:
It's been snowing for a while here in essex...and it's stocking!
On 29 Jan 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
More Crap reports by the BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31024149
1000 people interviewed by Cardiff Uni on their 'opinions'
warrants a report on national media!
Suppose it keeps someone in a well paid job churning this stuff out & accumulating Brownie Points.
What we need is Tony Abbot from Australia on a transfer to sort & cancel all the climate funding
How long is it going to take to scrape all these climate 'Barnacles' of the hull of good ship Great Britain I wonder ?
On 29 Jan 2015, keith wrote:
Had wet snow in S Wales today right on the coast forecast was for rain. just a little starter, Hoping the main course to come isent a wet soppy Lettice Peirs forcaste has been very accurate so far well done.
On 29 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire): Confused by a BBC forecast!? Just buy a £90 million computer and end the misery.
On 29 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Polar low incoming!!!!
On 29 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Piers thanks for updates on homepage. Quite rapid changes happening now as I indicated a few days ago (unstable northerly flow) Yellow warning for wind (50-60, 70mph on coast) for West Country for this evening put out at 1440. A polar developed earlier. Beautiful to watch unfold. Looks to be going down Irish Sea and will then sweep down from NW exiting around Brighton. Looks to be pepping up precipitation for some areas but may be rain on the West side. Keep watching the radar as changes can be rapid and spring up at hardly any notice. Widely reported today that the forecasts were wrong - rapid changes always expected. // Mammatus clouds reported after that thundersnow/hail from earlier. Family member grabbed a shot! // Fairly mild early despite an overnight frost. It only really started getting cold around nightfall and any snow that remained is frozen solid. Ripe to make treacherous conditions in the morning especially if that polar low drops some more overnight
On 29 Jan 2015, Asim wrote:
No snow here in the London area or south east. Seems to be fun & games as always up north. It's a real shame December forecast didn't come true... Another snowless winter down here.
On 29 Jan 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
South Wales about 400m at 1700 was a blizzard, proper white out conditions and strong winds, not sure of the temp but wind chill as certainly below -3. Bad enough the horses started to flee pretty sharpish as the weather hit
Although nothing sticking at town level, heavy showers melt as soon as it stops.
On 29 Jan 2015, Gazza wrote:
UGH !!!
Just come back from a very hot Cape Town to this ....
Think I am going back !!!
On 29 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Quite a lot of snow showers again today mostly wet snow but tried on a couple of occasions to settle, was a little more of a dusting up the garden than I first thought this morning, a couple of times today it changed from wet snow to something more powdery but only for a short time, quite a heavy snow shower around 3.30 pm that settled on the roof and gave a covering on the ground some of which is still laying about, 1 deg. But feeling like -5 at 19.14 pm nice and cold :)
On 29 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I am confused by the bbc forecast at 6.30pm for the weekend. It shows temps of 4/5 and any precipitation falling as rain? Thanks Piers for the update.
The models show about 30% chance of an NE or Easterly from the 5th which is a growing trend.
On 29 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR COMMS + REPORTS - KEEP THEM COMING IN === UPDATES Danny, David, Helen, Mike YES there is a comm on home page and will be more - and I recomend all read home page on regular basis - Re update ~ Feb come in early (and the timing always was uncertain), the 30d is the full update of Feb out on 31st SAT. In reports amounts of snow compared to TV forecast very useful; and whether rain came as snow or vice versa. === TELL ALL OF OFFERS which include EUROPE, USA as well as B+I == Thanks PC
On 29 Jan 2015, danny wrote:
Its Snowing down here in East Sussex, it started with
a flash of lightening and a rumble of thunder then a downpour
of rain, which rapidly turned to sleet, and very rapidly turned to
snow which is steadily falling as i type. There is also reports
of snow in Sutton, Wallington, and Coulsdon, all of which are in Surrey. The bbc met told us to expect rain. Oh well another £97.000000 pile of stinking Common Purpose computer for the scrapheap. Best wishes, danny and his lurcher dogs...
On 29 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Double the amount of snow forecasted fell in parts of Yorkshire today causing travel disruption. Are subscribers getting an update on February? Surely timings have changed!
On 29 Jan 2015, Helen (45 day/ winter subscriber, Co. Leitrim Ireland) wrote:
Well we had quite a blanket of snow overnight (maybe 2 cm with drifts) & most of it still lying at 4 pm, with very slushy roads from what I can see. Min was -1.5, -1 at noon, up to +0.5 after 2 pm, down to -0.5 after 4 pm. A bright sunny morning, but brief snow / sleet showers during afternoon. We also had thunder & lightning, from about 3.15- 3.40 pm, with very heavy cloud, followed by a brief hail storm. Wind had died down a lot earlier, but getting very gusty again now. Seems to have been a lot of snow in Connacht & Ulster especially, with orange warning now out for Co. Monaghan and Cavan. I'm hoping it's going to warm up for a bit after this, as have more stuff to do in preparation for next week! It's clear from Piers' comments today that the solar factors do make all the difference + it's a full moon late next Tues night! Everything is coming together... Waiting for the 30d update to see where things stand now, & this time I need to print it off (no printer at home alas).
On 29 Jan 2015, Mike wrote:
Winter sub: So, with the cold snap hitting us sooner than the LRFs outlined, is everything that follows back on track? It would be nice for us subscribers to get an update on following events if timing has changed. My sons birthday is on the 12th Feb and really want to plan something outdoors if poss.. Keep up the great work PC!
On 29 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Delightful Xmas card scene this morning, but no more showers.. Looks like a crisp night ahead and the Norwegian MO is going for us to have cold snap into the 2nd week of February. Double digit night- time frosts are very likely here in the Central Highlands
On 29 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Snow. Hail. Thunder!!! About 1540. Put down a 1cm covering quite fast. Winter at last!!! :)
On 29 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wind increased again bringing a few more hefty wet snow showers last night only sticking on the house windows for a time melting on the ground unfortunately not sticking around, Wind and wet snow again this morn. 1 deg. Now at 9 a.m but feeling like -4 cold and feel like hibernating! Orange warning in place for north yellow for us, think we are due a windy night also but no mention of that as yet, currently W wind around 24 kph, 988 mb pressure, grey and trying to sleet again..
On 29 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL These are exciting times! CRAIG ALL SEE home page comm I have put about USA blizzard less than standard Met and see MY RULES for improving Short Range. === END JAN START FEB - PADDY see the new news WA15No05 pdf and image on home page where we have made early Feb scenario possibly earlier (ie end Jan) to give the N Wind and you recall the longer range did have end Jan cold in one version. The Sudden Stratwarm being early would also support the cold end Jan being put back in === ALL See those amazing 75%OFF offers and GET / promote them.
On 28 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, at which time the W’ly wind also got up. Though it was a sunny morning, the temperature gradually went down to 3˚ and then 2˚ but the wind chill made it feel rather colder. Already 0˚ by 5pm & the soil of the tulip pots hardening with the frost, then -2˚ at 10pm. I said yesterday that I doubted we would get snow, but we did have a short shower of it early afternoon, and that was it & doesn’t look as if we’re going to get any tomorrow. It’s been said before that an R3 can have a kick to it, so that’s what further west & north from us is getting. According to MO 4 day pressure chart we’ll get a N’ly flow from High/Atlantic & Low/Scandinavia this weekend, which would be the typical scenario for us getting it in the neck. That differs from Piers’ pressure maps, we’ll find out which it will be.
On 28 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Just had a really heavy blizzard 10pm that has put down a few cm in about 10 mins really wild! Sure there was a flash of lighting!
On 28 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Bench test - which is how long I can sit on an outside chair before I start shivering - is down to seconds! Temps 3-4C @1730 which is not much but the dewpoints are -3C widely! Brrr! Highs of 10C and DPs 9C soon shifted after 10am into a rapid decline which explains why I was shivering as early as 1PM even when that Nor'west wind wasn't blowing (either that or I am going soft). Extra layers to the ready! Snow looks from the radar to be approaching Luton but not much precipitation heading south atm. Set up looks rife for anything that does fall-however fleeting-to be white. Local forecast increasingly showing snow showers & the temp range is dropping with each run. I think the main event is yet to come & as 2009/10 it looks like it will hold first in the Nth then spread South. I recall 09+10 similar(ish). Signs of a NE/E attack to come but so far off you need a bucket of salt not a pinch. The range according to MOBeeb next Fri is highs 2-10C/lows -2-8C. Skill! lol.
On 28 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...cont...despite the uncertainty Ryan Maue did agree with the warnings put out by NWS but it comes back to uncertainty not being stated - the public are not idiots. As Maue said when it comes to rain they say 20% or 80% chance it gives an idea at least. I notice the MetO are being quite clear on uncertainty in the days ahead with an unstable + uncertain Northerly flow liable to throw up changes at short notice. If only the uncertainty for the long term climate forecast (subject to Magic Unicorns...sorry co2...influence) was expressed as well - but considering the political & economic juggernaut waiting viciously in the wings I hold little hope for objectivity in climate but I have noticed the MetO - despite the apparent confidence in long term (e.g. 5-10 day) - forecasts caveat with how it is subject to (short term?) change. Oh to have that semblance in climate discussions instead of the unwavering bravado of Obama, Natalie Bennett & the political coat tailers harking for power.
On 28 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Helen - re: US blizzard in NSF (No Solar Factors) period...just what I have been thinking! As the evolution came a tad early it may well have been. Whilst still undoubtedly potent as seen in Boston+Massetus === http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/boston-snow-winter-storm-juno === and reached 30inches in places it was not the 3ft predicted. Lots of fallout for missing NYC but I think the warnings were valid although as Ryan Maue pointed out (reminiscent of the 'warmest year ever') the uncertainties were not stated which could have made for a more reasonable assessment of the risk (6-36 inches was a massive range of uncertainty even when it appears just 50 miles made the difference). For Piers long range warning it was not relevant as he highlighted well the area-near term forecasting 'failed' here. I think coming just before an uptick in solar activity (sunspots+flux are up again) it may have been just a tad too soon despite the severity...cont...
On 28 Jan 2015, se Eire sub wrote:
Very scattered hail sleet and snow showers all day. Shocked sheep with a hailstone blizzard earlier. Currently very heavy wet snow with fields turning white.
On 28 Jan 2015, se Eire sub wrote:
Very scattered hail sleet and snow showers all day. Shocked sheep with a hailstone blizzard earlier. Currently very heavy wet snow with fields turning white.
On 28 Jan 2015, Helen (45 day/ winter subscriber, Co. Leitrim Ireland) wrote:
After a wet & windy night here snow, hail & sleet showers started around 9 am. Quite a bit settled initially, but melting in bright sun. Temp at noon was +1.5C, min -1.5. Very dark, gusty and blizzardy at times with near horizontal showers of all sorts, alternating with bright sunny intervals. Feeling very cold. Irish Times weather forecast for this area has windchill of -9 to -11, with winds of 33 kph gusting to 67. Met Eireann now has yellow warnings for snow/ ice & gales for whole of Ireland till tomorrow evening, maybe upgrading to orange for snow in north & west later today. I note we're in an R3. Awaiting next week's R5 with baited breath.... Interesting that the US east coast blizzards less severe than anticipated - was this due to it being an NSF period?
On 28 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Followed by.. Sunshine :( More clouds moving in hopefully more snow incoming lol!-)
On 28 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A snow shower around 10 and again at 11 a.m and lunchtime didn't stick and some sun followed which the chickens loved every bit of huddled up in the shelter trying to get some warmth, briefly reached 4 deg. With a -3 wind chill, 2 now and the wind has increased again bringing in a hefty snow shower at 2.45 pm that is trying to stick in places :)
On 28 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Chief Forecaster's assessment for Sun - "very cold airmass will continue to spread southwards from Scotland and Northern Ireland across the remainder of the UK on Sunday accompanied by strong winds. Frequent showers are likely to form in this airmass, primarily affecting northern parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland but also running along eastern and western coastal districts of England and Wales at times. ***With the cold air snow is likely to accumulate even to low levels wherever showers affect*** Periods of enhanced snowfall are possible within this general flow but details of these are very uncertain at this time. As such this alert is likely to be updated and refined in the coming days to better represent individual features. There is the potential for disruption throughout this period due to the accumulating snow and ice but also with temporary blizzard conditions leading to very difficult driving conditions." Will we have red warnings in coming weeks?
On 28 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
MetO have upgraded warning to Amber for today/Thurs - the yellow extended to include much of Wales. A further yellow for Sat+Sun. Sunday has the warning area is like an upside down horseshoe (how unlucky?) covering East & West coasts of BI and includes much of Scotland. These will change & notoriously snow warnings can pop up at just a few hours notice. Currently the line of snow reaches from Edinburgh down to the E of Durham, E of Derby & then sweeps across N of Cardiff. All moving Sth. Wouldn't be surprised to get some wet slushy stuff at some point today. Heard reports of snow in SWest & hail in the squalls that passed into the SE. A few short but potent squalls ran through here & noticeably colder now. Switching between overcast with a few flecks of rain & sunny. Temp 6-7C. Still 9C in SE. Temps just above zero in the snow by the looks of it. Some interest showing for the Sth Mon into Tues but so far out far, far from certain. A protracted period of severe weather coming?
On 28 Jan 2015, paul wrote:
A quite active front today in Lowestoft. At 12.05pm there was heavy rain with hail mixed in reducing visibilities similar to white out for a few minutes. After that light rain then some heavier rain with a bit of sleet and thunder. Temps down to 4 degrees.
On 28 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
After a mild night, heavy snow showers started at 09-15hrs and have been continuing, with snow beginning to settle here sat 140m alt. Winter ain't done yet.
On 28 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
3 deg @ 9.08 a.m wind chill -4 deg. Wind really got gusting early this morning and tiles rattling on occasion, some sun n blue sky now with W 37 kph wind..
On 28 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Tut, tut, tut!. People on here getting caught up in model watching!.At best, three days out after that, no skill. No harm in it though, and gives us something to talk about!
On 28 Jan 2015, Lee Barrett wrote:
Hi Piers i hope ur well and a very well done letter to the prime minister i hope he listens & keep up the great work and i look forward to the upcoming weather :)
On 27 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull East Yorkshire, wrote:
Not sure where my last post ended up but to clarify again: the MO used to have hundreds of mainly manned data collection sites around the country, collecting daily max, min temps, rainfall, sunshine hours, wind speeds etc. The sites were either visited once per day and the readings taken at 9am (10am in the summer), or every hour, or when possible.
Data was submitted either daily, weekly or monthly. The data was adjusted for human error, location and also if some data was missing. Missing temp data was estimated using data from the nearest weather station....CET cannot be a trusted data set by which current data is compared.
On 27 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, ground hard with frost, a pretty cloudy but still day, SW’ly wind only got going around 5pm, max temp 7˚, still some ice hanging round, 5˚ at 10pm. MO still giving yellow snow warning for tomorrow & Thursday, I have my doubts…
On 27 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Alistair if I had a pound for every time Ecm showed an easterly in winter I would be able to afford to subscribe to WA for the next 5 years in advance. I can't see it happening tbh but you are right about the uncertainty. Very difficult to get the details right with snow with a few hrs to go let alone a few days. You will do well out of this northerly though that is for sure on the eastern side of UK. I am surprised at the lack of weather related comments on here considering.
On 27 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
2014 hottest ever? BEST computer says no, satellites says no, even the MetO say no...
“The HadCRUT4 dataset (compiled by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit) shows last year was 0.56C (±0.1C) above the long-term (1961-1990) average. Nominally this ranks 2014 as the joint warmest year in the record, tied with 2010, but ***the uncertainty ranges mean it’s not possible to definitively say which of several recent years was the warmest.”*** - See http://www.thegwpf.com/met-office-confirms-2014-continues-global-pause/ === Only NASAs highly corrupt and butchered data says yes and even then they are 62% unsure (like a dodgy salesman they just muttered the T&Cs and completely forgot to point this fundamental flaw in their science). Paul Homewood has some interesting recent examples where the alterations make the warming trend. See notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
On 27 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...cont...link ===
http://ow.ly/I2pxg ===
Dr Roy Spencer had commented on the conflicting model output in the lead up to the blizzard === http://ow.ly/I2pfI === // I use CET as a rough guide. The peaks and troughs give an indication sometimes but they are anything but exact with many changes. Newspaper reports from the time often give a good flavour some including wind direction of storms (Tony Heller is forever pulling up these reports to highlight the media's amnesia). Then there's the monthly Met Office reports since 1884 which can't be retrospectively homogenised and adjusted out of existence.
On 27 Jan 2015, Mark Fuller wrote:
A much better January here in coastal north Liverpool than last year. No snow,but there's been prolonged cold spells and 3 frosts. The snow in northern England has fallen largely on the the high ground, particularly the Peak District, the Lancashire Pennines to the East of Manchester, and much of West Yorkshire.Got a feeling that snow will be much more widespread in February. Very much looking forward to it, although the NHS will be under intense pressure, especially in Wales.
On 27 Jan 2015, Alistair from Hull wrote:
Well David of Yorkshire, Although some models are flirting with a change in 7 or 8 days I think they are struggling a bit with the current set ups at the moment.
I'm no real expert but looking at the ecm I do wonder if we may get further reloads after next week, could we possibly experience the beast from the East I wonder!.
I'm also not a subscriber but reading between piers lines I suspect there is a lot more to come this February.
On 27 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
nick wrote " long term trend analysis. " .. of what? not the uk. lancashire? lol no pennines see the picture of the triangle http://www.john-daly.com/stations/cet-map2.gif Given the cities that lie in the triangle and 200 years of urbanisation then its bound to 'warmer' yet hadley only corrected for urbanisation by 0.1 to 0.2 c which if you do a heat island test you will find it more than that. The co2ers deny the little ice age of the late 1600s when cet started so of course its going to show an upward trend from a mini ice age. There is a reason the co2ers use CET or their version of it and its to trick the public.
On 27 Jan 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
Another reason using benefit claims to try and define the actual temps, although I'm talking about the weather that has been and gone so when I'm saying its ben below average its actually measured as being below average and not a predictions.
But one issue you could have despite natural variation in benefit claims, after all the numbers would create an oscillation, but my main issue is for you to look up a database of this info for now and last year I can see obvious flaws. One, so far it is already much colder than last year as of present and more snow events but last years records would likely be up to date as of now. How can you be sure the records for this present moment is completely up to date of all claims.
On 27 Jan 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
... equally with desert races guys expose them selves to high temperaturs and train in it to improve their bodies reactions to the elements; they sweat more to help cool but lose less salt to reduce risk of hyponatremia.
I suffer with heat due to asthma and much prefer cold air and being a mountain runner I have got used to the worst of weathers. Now I struggle at work all the time and in other peoples homes because they have the heating on way to high. My heating bill for a year was under £300, not beause my home is efficient but due to the reasons stated above. This shows, heating use does not necessarily relate to actual temps, plus the coldest time is most often at night a time most people are happy to be asleep and have the heating off until just before they wake.
The MO state clearly the avg low temp country wide for whole of winter is zero. so anything below that is below average gence my original point it has been colder than usual and not mild. Unless they're lying
On 27 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Piers tweeted this earlier === http://ow.ly/I2lsW === UK bit on top right. // Seems #blizzardof2015 missed NYC by a hairs breadth "...AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
"Dry, powdery snow and moderate wind has spared the New York City area to central New England massive power outages,"
On 27 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Regarding CET.... I have said this on here before....when the daily temp, rainfall etc readings were manually recorded and sent to the MO, they were adjusted for human error and location. If readings were missed for whatever reason, the nearest weather station was used to estimate the readings!! How can the CET be considered reliable?? Met office manipulated the figures to suit.
On 27 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Update on what the models are showing - Cold lasting until next Wednesday is what they all show with unsettled conditions until Tuesday when it appears to become drier away from coastal areas. Then there is two scenarios showing, the first shows the Atlantic returning at the end of the week and the later shows high pressure building closer to the UK bringing settled but cold conditions with frost and fog. The there is what Piers has forecasted of course. We shall see!!
On 27 Jan 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
@Richard from E Midlands. CET area goes right up to Lancashire. Doesn't matter where it's based though if you want to use it for long term trend analysis.
On 27 Jan 2015, istvan ilyes wrote:
has anyone read Peirs,s comments at the Daily Express? on sunday . forcecast for February, Piers mentioned about sending a warning to the Government Cobra Commity regarding the forthcoming freeze.
On 27 Jan 2015, istvan ilyes wrote:
has anyone read Peirs,s comments at the Daily Express? on sunday . forcecast for February, Piers mentioned about sending a warning to the Government Cobra Commity regarding the forthcoming freeze.
On 27 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy today and some light drizzle earlier, around 7 deg @ 14.36 pm light sw breeze and a yellow wind warning up for Ireland and a yellow ice and snow warning too. Feels like all the sites ( except WA ) I read are not sure of the extent of the next spell of weather, I'm wondering if Monday looking worse here for us in the Midlands than the next few days but I could be wrong, roll on Feb.30d forecast, unfortunately I can't afford to take advantage of the fab deal on offer so will have to food shop early and be patient whilst doing the odd snow dance
;-)
On 27 Jan 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Regional variations. The MO's monthly summaries give the last months values by region compared to both 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Latest available is December 2014 which was warmer than average practically everywhere (E. Scotland had some cooler nights) compared to either base period. The summaries also give rainfall, days with rain, sunshine and days with air frost. See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/december/regional-values
I expect January's figures will be available in another week or two.
On 27 Jan 2015, Josh wrote:
Noticed a few forecasters pointing out a potential BIG sudden stratospheric warming around the 11th febuary!! Is this the warming you forecasted piers??
On 27 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Richard and Shaun: perhaps using the cold weather payments payout per postcode might be a useful index. This is a benefit paid out when the average temp is below freezing per 7 day period. This year there have been only 3 paid in my area compared to 8 in 2010 These are based on the Gov's own stats on what has happened, not on past model predictions
On 27 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
CET is just the bristol london triangle so why do the co2ers keep quoting it as representative of the uk? We all know the north and wales have been much colder than the south. Since Hadley took over the data set they don't use the same stations as the original cet and they 'adjust them'. So for me hadley cet is not the same as the original cet. CET is meaningless outside the london bristol triangle it measures. Who would call that representative of the uk or use it as a mark of general trends given a Manchester Carlisle Newcastle triangle would give you a completely different picture. There is a reason the C02ers use CET and its not because it gives a true picture but fits in with their agenda. We need a new measure for the uk not based in hot cities or on airport runways
On 27 Jan 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
@john p ive been making this point to people for weeks. So many people sayings its a mild bad winter but what I think they are still doing is using snow amounts to define winter instead of temps while comparing every winter to 2010. I mean antarctic is a desert due to very lil precipitation but no one says its mild bcoz that would be daft. I keep saying as far down as south wales we have had 5 or 6 weeks of sub zero and according to MO anything below 0 is below average at any time in winter. Not just subzero but been -3 to -4 for much of that time. That is a good winter and we have a third left to go yet and it doesn't look finished either but so far there has been good snow events around country. 2 events here that didn amount to much but at 350 I found some metre high snow drifts. So yea im not surprised if winter comes below average... it would appear a lie to say its now below average off what we have seen so far.
On 27 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Just before going to sleep tuned into CNN who are waiting for this snow storm in New York and it seems to be going to be a nasty one with 60cm of snow and they are cancelling flights and putting out warnings. It was a talking point this evening at my local, the adverse weather in NY and snow forecast for UK, the conversation always ends with some climate change supporter saying 'the Jetstream has shifted what do you expect ' has anyone noticed the media seem to be now using the Jetstream as the cause of weather patterns including cold winters.
On 27 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
..."These two observations are consistent with a "Coulomb explosion", where the metal becomes positively charged and those charges push each other outward, causing the spikes to form.
Prof Jungwirth explained ***this phenomenon has been known since the 19th century, but never spotted in this context."*** ===
http://ow.ly/HZgX7
=== It could be wrong but the computer simulations match the observations. *coughs*
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
..."Using super-fast video footage and computer simulations, scientists have revised our understanding of explosions well known from high-school chemistry.
Chemists in the Czech Republic and Germany captured images of the alkali metals sodium and potassium exploding on contact with water.
They saw a flash of bluish purple and "spikes" of metal shooting outwards.
**This suggests that the reaction is kick-started by positive charges repelling each other**
[...]
Two tell-tale pieces of evidence from the video suggested a new interpretation of how these reactions become explosive.
Spikes of metal could be seen shooting very rapidly out into the water, within less than half a millisecond of the two surfaces coming into contact. And **there was a flash of a bluish purple colour** at about the same time..."....cont...
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
The usual Greenpeace propaganda on the (tax payer funded) BBC Science/Environment website today. It normally doesn't warrant a reply of a fart in their general direction but there is only so much effluent o e can stomach - "Risk of extreme weather 'doubles'" [because the computer model said so climate scientists have asked for the general public's direct debit details - Al Gore would like to buy up more beach front properties] ; "Obama push to expand Alaskan refuge" [cue BBC 'stock' picture of polar bears who are doing well now we've stopped hunting them b-b-but if we don't put them on the endangered list the cash cow will be slain! What better way to protect them than a land grab by a bunch of fanatical...snip]; "Fracking moratorium rejected by MPs" [If only we put 'reewables' through these 13 hurdles eh?] :) .....but all is not lost as a gem exists in the stye. The unintended irony is wonderful and in many ways pertinent to recent discussions on this very page...cont...
On 26 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, ground frozen again or still, colder feel than yesterday at only 5˚ max, WNW’ly breeze, very sunny all morning, a little cloudier in afternoon & 4˚ at 10pm. On the radio forecast they were making much of an approaching snowy period for Wed & Thur with N’ly airstream; R3 period, let’s see whether this materialises.
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Oops - in my first comment I mistakenly said snow storm...I wish. It was a light flurry/shower. // General comment - If you check the main page (US blizzards) you will see there are two R3s coming. Apply +/- 1d to what you see going forward. In cold unstable air streams things can pop up at v. short notice. It's not an R5 but always look at what is in front of you & always check the radar. Back in July Russ picked up a line of T storms on radar coming up from France long before the MetO warnings went out (it was explicitly warned within the R5 period). Currently a yellow Met O warning covers large swathes of the North BI for Weds/Thurs. Cold air looks to advance very quickly on as the cold front drops down. The South is unlikely to get more than very cold rain until the weekend but at ~48hrs to kick off it can change rapidly // Our 'friend' - the enormous southern coronal hole - has returned and after much solar quiet an M1 flare fired just before 5PM UTC.
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Oops - in my first comment I said snow storm...I wish. It was a light flurry/shower. // General comment - If you check the main page (US blizzards) you will see there are two R3s coming. Apply +/- 1d going forward to what you see going forward. In cold unstable air streams things can pop up at short notice. It's not an R5 but always look at what is in front of you and look at the radar. Back in July Russ picked up a line of T storms on radar coming up from France long before the MetO warnings went out (it was explicitly warned within the R5 period). A yellow Met O warning covers large swathes of the North for Weds/Thurs. Cold air looks to advance very quickly on Weds as the cold front drops down. The South is unlikely to get more than very cold rain until the weekend but at ~48hrs to kick off it can change // Our 'friend' - the enormous southern coronal hole - has returned and after much solar quiet an M1 flare fired just before 5PM UTC.
On 26 Jan 2015, Neil from Hull, East Yorkshire. wrote:
So much for Mets long term forecast, they really cant seem to get it right beyond a couple of days or so, despite the millions spent on their super computers.
If the predicted weather events that are forecasted, do actually come to pass, then it may just turn a few top heads towards Piers Corbyns future forecasts and his methods, mind you, considering the blind arrogance of many of the so called elite, I wouldn't hold my breath.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11253760/White-Christmas-unlikely-as-Met-Office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter.html
On 26 Jan 2015, John P wrote:
Piers is this right? Because if so it means the Met Office was wrong about a warm winter. It has just been posted on exacta weather facebooks page
Cold Winter Vs Mild Winter
There is now a good chance that the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will come in below-average for January and well below-average for February - this would result in a much colder than average winter for 2014/15, despite earlier Met Office indications for a mild/warm winter @ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11253760/White-Christmas-unlikely-as-Met-Office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter.html
On 26 Jan 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Piers, The formula only uses pressure, which is simpler to use but to add to what you said, on Venus, the gravity’s effect on the molecules that rise causes the temperature to drop by an average of 100 Kelvin for every 11 miles, up to an altitude of 60 miles. So thanks, I will add that to my list of explanations. The Atmospheres of the other planets provide the proof that the so called Arrhenius method cannot be used, but most climate scientists are Earth myopic, so would not notice the disproof, even Richard Lindzen has not twigged yet, still trying to hammer it to fit assumptions. But apart from Weatheraction and the Space Special Interest group of Mensa, I don’t think any one else in Britain has twigged on to what is the biggest part of the fraud in Climate science.
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
SSN & flux dropped a fair bit the past few weeks and N America is going into the freezer. The US cold in July (remember the 'polar vortex' headlines then?) was coincident with the zero spot numbers. I did a video which was quite surprising as the colder temps advanced as the SSN/flux lowered & retreated as the numbers rose again. We had Bertha a shirt time after suggesting a lag for the UK. Some may remember I said back in Dec that the Atlantic looked to come back as solar activity rose - which it did - but it was a lagged not immediate effect. Fascinating and something to look into. I can 'smell' something, but I just can't quite place it as yet.
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
cont... so is 2015 another cold Feb period? Current low solar activity looks to help but it may pep up again*** To find out you have to subscribe as Feb is shaping up to be special and is following what Piers outlined back in Aug (p.s. Just to add you don't always need blocking to get a decent cold spell - Feb 77/8 seems to be a real battleground with mild incursions in the Sth but I am going on the summary & need to go thru the charts properly) - but it does help. Current modelling sees a signal for blocking towards the 3rd wk Feb but this can easily change so far out. //
* === http://ow.ly/HY7t6 ===
** - it *may* have a lunar signal at 37yrs - i.e. 18.6x2 - although lunar effects are a modulator not a driver). Solar phase had low activity then if I recall correctly (IIRC) but was following min whereas we now are seemingly post max although the mag field flip is fully not complete). Feb 1991 had SN ~270 & flux of ~240.
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Saskia - Been looking back at some past MetO monthly summaries*. Winter 1977/8, which has been mentioned a few times by Joe B as an analogue for this winter (and something I've followed since there were similarities with 76/77 last winter**). How does that fit for Holland vs. this winter? I know you were looking 78/79. Nov-present follows a similar path. *If* it follows that pattern we will have a cold Feb modulated with warm periods, a warm Mar & snow in April! (a late sting in the tail as Paddy alluded to many weeks back?) // The persistent NW flow has been so unusual as has the snow from it! Frosts must number in the 20s for me by now. It has held remarkably and each cold dig seems to be get further than the last as the Northern hemisphere gets colder. Coming into Feb is the best time to get cold & there is a clear drop in average CET. It was historically when I looked for snow. It delivered in 2009+2012 (2013 had a covering here & there)...cont...
On 26 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Piers - Congrats on predicting the 'historic' snow about to befall the NE USA (3ft!!!). Also a belated congrats on the 'ferocious' storm over Scot a couple of weeks back. Although cold uppers crept in following the storm (I had a light snow storm that settled on the frost last Sat - massive smile watching the flakes fall - tho' melted in an hour or so). As with Fred I could see from the EU chart cold was possible. Surface features realised well this month IMO but those cold uppers have made it mostly chilly but yoyo temps at times also. Feb yet to be realised of course but considering you warned how the winter was due to go back in Aug that is mighty impressive! // Fred if you're about care to do a brief summary of where you think the models stand? It looks like the GFS is doing it's usual signal flipflop with a swing back since the 0z today to a more cold prognosis. (mainly N as it stands). P.S. I've been following your comms over at NetWx & the charts you highlight. Ace stuff
On 26 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers does the first period of Feb still stand? I may need to travel for work in said period and wondered what your thoughts were on this.
On 26 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Actually I thought the country file weather report was honest but then they do have to consider those that work outside and livestock.
On 26 Jan 2015, Asim wrote:
Hi piers will the London area this time get even a flake of snow this winter? Would be very kind if you could say. Thanks
On 26 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
INTERESTING COMMS ALL THANKS == EXCITING TIMES THE MINI-ICE AGE IS HERE, WORLD-WIDE, BIG TIME == BI 30day-ers, SUE, To get Feb now subscribe to 45d 1month and you get your 30d extended for 1month too - pay £11 and get Feb now and 30d extension worth £12! Enjoy weather!
On 26 Jan 2015, Sue G ( 30 day subscriber) wrote:
BBC weatherspeak is now confusing me even more than usual. Just before the one o'clock news on R4 dire warnings of what's coming from Wednesday but when I refer to the local BBC forecast online, nothing scary at all - just a bit colder and the odd flake of snow. They really do want it both ways - say one thing, publish another. Piers, we need your clarity on this one! Roll on 31 January - unless it's Snowmaggedon in which case could you tell your 30 day subscribers a day or two early please!
On 26 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Hello, well back from Spain and the weather here in dear ol dorset is mild, when in Spain the nights and early morning till about 10ish were chilly, very chilly in the wind. Well if the forecasts are correct we may get a bit of a chill and maybe some snow or heavy wind and rain, we will see how it goes, snowdrops out here nice to see on my return, oh and some early crocus to.
On 25 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
Russ, the Copenhagen Interpretation is exactly that, an interpretation. It is not necessary to favour any interpretation to make use of quantum mechanics. Classical and quantum did not 'part company', quantum physics developed to explain the observations that classical physics failed to cope with, e.g. ultraviolet catastrophe/black body radiation, two slit experiment, how electrons and nucleons behave within the atom, radioactive decay etc. QED explains how most of classical physics (gravity excepted) resides within the quantum 'framework'. It is not one pitted against the other, as you imply, classical physics is still perfectly valid, it just has limitations. You appear to be casting aspersions as to the validity of quantum theory by making comparisons between it and to the misuse of science in pursuit of an agenda (whichever one that may be). That's a totally unreasonable comparison.
On 25 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Burns Night tonight, that’s why it got warmer :-). Still icy around the farm in spite of 3˚C at 7.30, gradually thawing in a stiff SW breeze with a bit of sunshine from time to time, when temps eventually rose to 7˚ the ice really began to go and is now at 9.30pm all gone, and still 5˚ with hardly any wind. Mild weather on the nail as per Piers’ forecast.
On 25 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
6 deg. @ 8 a.m a bit more overcast today but reached 11 deg. with a sw breeze and felt mild in comparison to recently, a nice enough day to be out..
On 25 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
ISTVAN ILYES: that was a sweepingly brave statement, bearing in mind the British winters of 1947, 1963, 1979 and 1986 and in Scotland others too. The record cold, equalled in January 1982 and December 1995 was set in February in the late 19th century. It ain't done yet.
On 25 Jan 2015, Henk wrote:
Hi everyone,
The dutch weather agencies are already warning for a polar vortex for the period 29th january - 2 februari affecting the country with snow and ice. The question is how much amount of snow will fall when the air at 5 km height is really getting around the minus 40 degrees. Looks like we see comparison with the polar vortex in the US earlier in 2013/2014.
Henk
On 25 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Models still going for widespread snow from Wednesday onwards starting in Ireland then sweeping across the UK on Thursday morning. Atlantic shut off until at least the second week of February. Could this finally be London's shot at getting snow this Winter (we have been waiting since March 2013 by the way)...Excellent accuracy with the forecasts so far in 2015 Piers!
On 25 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Re Russ, yes, it takes a long time to turn the ship round.Take the electric universe and nasa's dirty snowball theory for comets, even though we saw ison electrically interacting with the sun they still cling on to the old dogma.
Want to look down the rabbit hole? Why haven't we been back to the moon for 42 years? Because we never went there- the radiation in the Van allen belt is not survivable, that's why all the current space stuff is low earth orbit. Listen to james mccanney,s sience hour this week, very interesting and its free, he gets to the meat of the subject around the 30 minute mark
Regards Steve
On 25 Jan 2015, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Looks like we will see a real taste of winter later this week. Plenty of oil in the tank, could be some really low temperatures if the models are to be believed!
On 25 Jan 2015, brandon wrote:
Piers you say warning for Feb could you state that is it going to be trouble for people in the far south of England too??
On 25 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Alister....yes different interpretations of observations from people with the same, or very similar, education leading to more weirdness. It matters not how a brain is educated, because our individual biases and subjectivity skew our conclusions. The Copenhagen Interpretation in the 1920s was where classical physics and the quantum world parted company, and the rabbit hole opened up and swallowed a large proportion of new scientists. There 'are' classical explanations for new observations but as with the global warming agenda, these are rubbished and censored by the scientific community, because quantum makes money, whereas classical doesn't any longer. If you can stomach Mr Obama's State of the Union speech, just listen from 43 mins >> http://youtu.be/Z8LqG_Ld0Dw << and you'll see the level of 'deliberate'(?) misunderstanding at the very highest level. NOAA he quotes but lies about the data. I see the same misleading quotes throughout the science community. The very worst of times?
On 25 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn <= Go there for top news tweets wrote:
BRILL COMMS ALL and PASS ON THE OFFER! == ISTVAN re 'WA winter'; I do not see how you can say what such was although you imply it's 'ALL COLD' but actual subscribers know was not. Our WA LR forecast had clear long mild sections which have been generally well confirmed. There are many churlish charlatans & CO2 warmist professional liars around who readily make dishonest claims. If you hear something about us from somewhere else it may be untrue. == RICHARD re NED+KARL's theory of planteary temperatures. Not sure of some of your detail but for info I talked to them before they published and said it was "obviously correct". On the question of height & temperature you dont need all the thermodtnamics to see it. A molecule moving in a gravitational field loses speed and kinetic energy as it goes upwards - like throwing a ball - and so temperaure (~average KE) is lower higher up and it is nothing to do with radiation, absorbtion or emission of infra red, or composition of molecule.
On 24 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I would advise people to buy 45 day sub which gives the general picture for Feb. Get friends and family to club together if needs be. Are the models over cooking it for later next week? Probably but it does remind me of November 2010 when there was strong cross model agreement of a severe wintry outbreak a week before it began. This is not a phantom Easterly showing either. Hope the models are wrong to be honest. Could be like the end of Jan/early Feb 1995, which always sticks in my mind for bad winter weather!
On 24 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Although the thermometer read 1˚C at 7.30, the ice had hardly moved since yesterday and falling on one’s bahookies was a distinct possibility all day. Max temp 4˚ but there was a really sharp W’ly wind blowing which prevented any thawing at ground level. Of course, down from our hill there was no snow to be seen, even our little country road was free of it, having been gritted & salted. Splendid sunny day though, barely a cloud in the sky. Rather looking forward to the thaw announced for tomorrow by the MO. == PIERS: R5 21-23 Jan was rather attenuated, what happened? For us it was reasonably accurate, apart from not being mild. If the thaw comes tomorrow, that’ll be bang on your forecast.
On 24 Jan 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
(2) The temperature on Venus at the altitude that has identical pressure to that on the Earths surface is 1.176 times the Earths average surface temperature. The radiating temperature of Venus is 1.176 times that of the Earth, proving that input from the Sun and a change to thermal inertia due to pressure as a precise function of altitude are all that is needed to calculate the atmospheric greenhouse effect. (3) The average surface temperature divided by the grey body temperature gives you the magnitude of the Thermal inertia which resembles the response of the temperature/potential temperature ratio to the altitudinal changes of pressure described by the Poisson formula, with predictions matching evidence for Venus, Earth, Mars, Europa, Titan and Triton to prove that the physical nature of the so-called Greenhouse Effect is in fact a Pressure-induced Thermal Enhancement or Thermal Inertia which is independent of the atmospheric chemical composition. That’s what the BBC is censoring.
On 24 Jan 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
I have just learned that Avogadro’s Law states that equal volumes of all gases, under the same pressure and temperature, contain an equal number of molecules. This adds to the understanding of Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller’s Unified Theory of Climate, which shows that with all planetary atmospheres in the Solar System, the increase in pressure reduces the speed of transfer of heat, the increase in heat maintains the equilibrium with the input of heat from the Sun, as more heat is transferred but at a slower rate, maintaining the equilibrium. In fact, another Law to add to the Laws of Thermodynamics. Other facts to add to this are (1) When scaled against their grey body temperature equivalents, to account for their distance from the Sun, it turns out that all the planetary atmospheres for which reliable instrumental data is available have more-or-less identical temperature-versus-height characteristics, irrespective of their atmospheric compositions.
On 24 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
Russ - Piers has neatly reiterated that wave or particle LIKE behaviour - is just a model or one way of describing what experiments see, according to our limited 'classical' comprehension. Assuming experimental measurement errors have been discounted, the results are undeniably interesting from a theoretical standpoint. Don't take the article on face value, the writer is interpreting and simplifying for the intended recipients, so the notion of 'reshaping' is analogy rather than fact. We cannot (yet) know what quantum entities are, the article does allude to that but should have been clearer. Observed rule of thumb: - The public are generally looking for certainty, journos like to provide (the illusion of) certainty, good physicists are comfortable with uncertainty. I prefer the attitude of the latter.
On 24 Jan 2015, istvan ilyes wrote:
The British winter is fast running out. this hype about February being the one that will bring the Arctic blast is overstated. many are saying its coming, what would that be? the spring? I live in crawley, West Sussex and we have had some seriouse snow 2009/10 but none since. I cannot afford the subs from WA, I am on Pension Credit. I would love a cold winter, but it seems we have run out of time for a WA type winter.
On 24 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
-1 to start not a hard frost and ice only here n there, nice enough day for working in the garden reached 7 deg for a short time, light sw breeze and some occasional sunny spells though mostly overcast later this aft.
On 24 Jan 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Now that the Feb forecast has been dropped to £12, the 30 day rate, any chance of it being given to us 30 day subscribers? Sounds like it is going to be very cold.
On 24 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
PIERS - Due to my being sick I never noticed the updated forecast for the latter part of the month. And you were - as usual - bang on cue! I still think your strong point in this whole weather forecasting business is the fact that you adjust, explain and admit errors in your forecasts whenever even you are thrown for a loop if and when circumstances change. Every dime I have spent on your productions has been - at least in my opinion - worth every cent, as well as the fact that I have learned a great deal thanks to you and the folks on this forum. Keep it up please!
On 24 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
We has snow!! ;-)
https://twitter.com/scruffy65/status/558917044067131393 / https://twitter.com/scruffy65/status/558916277138624514 / https://twitter.com/scruffy65/status/558915366316175360
On 24 Jan 2015, Andy wrote:
Young Eastside seems to be getting a bit hot and bothered about something, I am not sure what. Get back in your Igloo and chill out!
On 24 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Re David and Steve D. Yes, most of the models showing cold at the end of next week, with the A.O. AND N.A.O forecast to go strongly negative the last third of February things could get interesting!
I'm 55 and ive heard older folk saying how bad February can be, in my lifetime it always seemed to be January or in the last 5 years December, so maybe we're going to see what Feb can do!.
Letter sent to David Cameron and Cobra, i just hope the forecast comes off this time. I'm a 30 day sub so i don't know what piers has forecast, but it aint hot sunshine is it?
On 24 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Saskia - I can sympathise with you re whooping cough. Had it 3 years ago when I was 62 and it knocked me badly too. I had a retinal bleed in one from coughing, fortunately no permanent damage. My husband had it too but not as badly as me.
On 24 Jan 2015, @piers_corbyn WA forecaster wrote:
USEFUL COMMS ALL == WILD JET STREAM rapid temp changes continue notice! - in line with our LR forecast and Mini Ice age / Wild JetStream == EAST SIDE you could note this amount of snow in a lot of places Br + Ir more than the norm over the last 20 years, and the headline of FrozenBritain was actually accurate - surprising - even if not exceptional in European terms. I don't quite follow the third world point. In terms of corruption the Uk has a lot less than most countries in East Europe or Africa. == RUSS interesting COMMS on electrons, photons etc I would just say the double slit electron diffraction experiment does indeed illustrate the inadequacy of concepts used to describe them. The point is there is too much belief in concepts as if they are reality. They are not reality but abstractions which represent reality to varying degrees.
On 23 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Hi David. Yes I've noticed the trend with the models pipping for a major Arctic blast later next week. It looks a tad overcooked to me, it may be slower than the over progressive models dictate but the signal is there and should be taken seriously...
On 23 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Change in the air: 2˚C at 7.30, stiff SW - W’ly breeze, cloudy morning & feeling raw with the increased damp. Nevertheless, sunny afternoon with a max temp of 4˚, down to 0˚ by 9pm under a clear & starry sky. == As predicted, our place is now a skating rink, including all sloping roads & tracks, the thaw today was not sufficient to melt much of the ice formed by the compacted snow, so we’re all walking around like on eggs. Last time we had this was in 2011 and I actually skated up and down one of our sloping roads, not terribly pleasant but fun for about 10 minutes :-)
On 23 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
If the Models are to believed from the 31st we are going to get a true Arctic plunge nationwide with heavy snow and blizzards lasting several days!!!!!!!! Might be worth keeping an eye on over the coming week. I know this can't be relied on this far out but they all show the same set up more or less. could be a nightmare for travel and work. Anyone else spotted this?
On 23 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
I might not get a chance to post this before this thread gets superceded but I'll have a go...... They say they fired single photons through a 'filter'. Not sure, can't find out what this filter was exactly. Then they talk about a 'beam'. Well you can't have a beam of a single photon! Not even a beam of single photons. The photons should have returned to c after leaving the filter but didn't. Did the filter alter the energetic state of the photons? If so the photons were changed to a different energy state, and may not be photons any longer. But these may still appear to be photons. I believe that the scientists procuring this experiment have found a new particle, which may open doors to new ways of finding exotic particles (rare or unknown particles). You can't change the shape of a photon. You can change the energy state, or direction, but you can't change the shape of something which has NO SHAPE! Chew slowly and spit when you are ready!!!...
On 23 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
I need to say something about this but I have a team of horses holding me back... >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-30944584 << ... Re-shaping a photon? What legal or illegal substances are these people taking to even dream that their experiment actually re-shapes the photons... I thought I was having a nightmare when I read it.. Would Stu or Alister like to comment? The problem with BBC articles is, 'they never give you links to the actual papers'! So if they're changing the shape of the photon, what shape are photons? Or are we back to talking billiard balls again? They don't even know what a photon is for gawdsakes!, hence their problems trying to understand the 'double slit'. They admit that a photon has a frequency, a sort of inherent, highly energetic vibration, but then lose the plot in calling this a wave, which then is assigned to the photon, as though the photon can actually change it's physical state. Oh come on now!! Back in the real world...ahem!
On 23 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Orange Weather Alert The Netherlands due to nationwide black ice conditions expected as of 2 AM or thereabouts.
On 23 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
The southern Scottish Borders were hammered with heavy rain and mist this afternoon, but I noticed farther inland, that the rain had fallen as snow on the hills, but down to a fairly low level too, as could be seen from the road, as all the heather had a dusting of snow. So just 35 miles inland and the rain fell as snow. This is how fickle the white stuff is. In Chesterfield last week there was around 3 inches at both high and low levels; got blown around a lot so was distributed evenly. But Buxton 25 miles to the west had 6 inches. Derby 23 miles to the south hardly saw a flake. But the places which didn't see snow also didn't get away Scot free, because they had freezing rain turning to black ice on several mornings. The gritters have been out coating the roads with grit and salt while the snow has been around and icy mornings but they missed THIS morning! Cars like ice lollies and very slippery roads yet no sign that the gritters had been out. That's another fickle stuff...ICE!
On 23 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Not been on the forum much due to trubs with youngest (step)son and having experienced what whooping cough means when you're 49. Actually tore a muscle coughing so hard, so am pretty hampered in my daily actions. Am twittering a lot however and sending updates on weather here, which currently is -1.9C with -8.9C wind chill and 5BF SSE wind. Has been very foggy yesterday and today, and with frost causing very uncomfortable conditions. @Paddy - Little late but yes, the sea can wreak havoc if she so desires. For centuries lots of villages and farms here have been built on so-called 'terps' or artificial mounds to protect against flooding. The Frisian we speak here - Noardeasthoeks or North-East-corner - is an older variant and is actually even closer to English than German or Dutch. The rest of the province does have more Dutch influence though. We kinda got 'stuck' in time ;-)
On 23 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold foggy day yesterday dense in places temp struggled to reach 2 or 3 deg. Fog lifted late aft. Some sunny spells then early frost, cleared through the night with a rise in temp and the rain back this morning. 7 deg this morn but feels colder and very grey and dull.
On 22 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30 (apparently -11 at Aviemore), trees beautifully covered in rime, snow on the ground turned to crackling ice, misty in parts. Warmed up to 2˚ during a fairly sunny day with some interesting clouds that looked like ice floes from below, -2˚ by 5pm, rising to -1˚ again by now, 10pm.
On 22 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
We still have snow lying here from 10 days ago,but should get a shift tomorrow and Sunday. Just a few namby-pamby degrees below zero last night compared to the double digit frosts of the last few days.
Good word that 'bahookies' and perhaps could be used as a generic term for warmists?
On 22 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
No photo's Piers because I didn't go to the persons place of work which was in the middle of nowhere, but went to their home address which was in Dundee, so the only good snow that I saw was on the M74 around the Beatock and Abington high ground. Taxi driver last night was taking photo's of the snow outside our house, because in Birmingham he'd not seen any. He said his mates would never believe him that we'd had so much snow. I'd say about 3" total. Looks more where the traffic has piled up the ice and slush. Very slow melt due to the temp hovering around 2 or 3C. Talking of bahookies, who's idea was it to make all the railway station seats out of metal? Flippin freezing. Cure? Take a foldable sit-mat in your bag. The kind which walkers have in their rucksacks. You can usually pick one up in an outdoor shop for about £1. If you get a largish one, you can safely sit on something which is snow covered, without melting the snow, they are so thermally sluggish...
On 22 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Conventional forecasters and models see a return of cold weather towards the end of next week, and the arctic oscillation and N.A.O to go strongly negative in the last third of February, giving the possibility of cold and snow events in central and south Britain
On 22 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Last two mornings frosty icy and cold, temp reached 4/5 deg. Yesterday. 1 deg. Now @ 9.46 a.m some mist and some partly cloudy sky.. Well water is so cold to brush teeth with in the mornings but helps the waking process!
On 21 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, light S’ly breeze, sunshine most of the morning & thawing, then snow showers around 1pm & light rain on & off thereafter. The ground remained frozen though, so the snow stayed on, max temp 2˚, back down to just below 0˚ at 10pm and raining at the same time! We’ll have a skating rink here by tomorrow morning.
On 21 Jan 2015, east side wrote:
"East Side just wanted post because you posted here quite matter of factly telling people they were wrong, .. Not only has it snowed down at least as far as South Wales"
Let me point out that snow in the UK at the end of January is a perfectly banal and normal thing to have in the UK.
It's only because you are a totally third world country that kids can't go to school, the buses and trains stop & the planes can't take off or land.
I hate to say this, but it's the ONLY country in western Europe that is so totally inept for 1-2cms of a tiny bit of white stuff.
I had to laugh looking at the UK newspapers today, their "FROZEN Britain" showed a few frosty fields & the kind of light dusting of snow we get double of, in just an afternoon, no matter if I'm in Finland, Russia or Sweden.
If that attitude had been typical in 1940, & the environment agency had existed, you would have all been surrender monkeys in 2 weeks.
TIme to get a bit of grit and stop whinging I reckon.
On 21 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Friend driving down from Hull to Cambridge has reported snow. Damp and grey on The Downs this morning and much the same in London. Chilly. Guardian is having a fit of the vapours over PwC CEO survey of over 1300 companies for Davos failing to ask if climate change was impacting their businesses. Their response was that it polled less than 10% last year so not an issue. Poor old Guardian - got to keep their readership at the BBC happy. now I wonder what response PwC would get if they asked if the costs of measures to stop climate change were impacting businesses?
On 21 Jan 2015, ciscokid wrote:
Met Office current forecast is for rain/sleet for north Manchester. Snowing heavily for the past hour alone in Oldham right now. Met Office epic fail yet again!
On 21 Jan 2015, C View wrote:
Great to see mother nature currently sticking two fingers up to the warmest year ever claims. On a visit to Glencoe yesterday the air was frigid, cold and dry very much an Arctic feel to it and on driving along the Clyde coast today the snow is lying on the shore right down to the high water mark. Also Cairngorm Mountain reporting wind chill of -27c today!!!
On 20 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Almost -4˚C at 7.30 this morning, feeling raw in the SW wind bringing cold air from Greenland via the Low now over Iceland, we even had a hail shower for a short while. But it turned out reasonably sunny again today and the billowing cumulus clouds over the sea were fabulous. Warmed slightly to 2˚, but down at 0˚ again by 9.30pm. == Aye, RON, bahookies aka hurdies as in ‘Hurdies like a distant hill’ in Burns’ Ode to a Haggis?
On 20 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sleety stuff only amounted to cold light rain last night and this morning, rained mostly all day like this, felt cold out still, no idea of temp today had no time to check...
On 20 Jan 2015, Catherine (45 d sub) wrote:
Ron: Here near Glasgow (in the west and near the sea) temperature not risen above freezing today or yesterday, and barely above freezing very briefly over the weekend. Quite unusual for here. Snow's lovely and crunchy - dog loving it. Liked your comment about bahookies being protected, though some readers may need a translation.
On 20 Jan 2015, Rohan wrote:
5 deg here in sunny London Bridge, very little wind and quite please in the sunshine. Feels almost like early spring. Slightly above zero forecast tonight with no precipitation by MetO.
We shall see....
On 20 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Steve(on the Med), Dorset - NASA and their GISS did even better. 0.02C hotter than ever before (+ or - 0.1 and only 38% confidence LOL). Anyone care to read a mercury in glass thermometer to 0.1? 0.5 perhaps? My watch has a thermometer in it that reads to 0.1 but I don't know the accuracy. Most digitals will do tenths but hundredths? What is the point? Why not round to the nearest tenth given the uncertainty? I think this one may backfire on them and show it is just propaganda for Paris. P4P anyone? Up early yesterday and it was snowing on The Downs and more surprisingly 300ft lower in Epsom. That change in altitude often changes rain to snow (or vice versa if you going the other way).
On 20 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset.UK. Sub wrote:
18th jan Gerry North Downs Wrote..
0.04c how the hell did the warmists get to this figure it has to be by holding a match under the thermometer, I will stick to the satellite measurements they can't get matches up there.
You could say Gore blimey.
On 20 Jan 2015, Geoff wrote:
Piers's point (19 Jan) about the near miss in the South-1deg C cooler would have produced mega blizzards - is pretty important. We need more such analysis.
At one level any miss is a failure-eg if acting on the forecast turns out to have been unnecessary.Too many of them and people stop listening-which is what ought to happen with the Warmists, who have a stupendous record of wrong calls, but they are well dug in and good at denial of the evidence (like a successful religious cult perhaps?!).Understanding why and by how much the forecast missed-time,space, intensity etc. may help to tighten forecasts? (How much more accurate is now SLAT v early versions?). Accurate if fuzzy sets of Weather forecasts reinforce the strategic significance of Climate prediction by SLAT-or its successors?- in the real battle over the CO2 Cult,which is only partly about science and a lot about political power and influence. Groundnut Scheme anyone?
On 20 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: yes interesting to see how the temperatures are affected by short/longer distances from the sea and especially so in the West. Another double digit minimum in the Central Highlands last night, but a bit milder and cloudier now in Perthshire. Interesting to see the different forecasts given out by the MObeeb in the main bulletin last, night, the Scottish forecast this morning and the projection given in last night's Winterwatch programme. Bahookies being well protected!
On 20 Jan 2015, danny wrote:
Its here, and the bbc met office never forecast this.
You cannot get much further south either.
Its SNOWING down here in BN27 East Sussex.
I was awoke at 7.15 this morning by kids voices
and straight away i thought its been snowing.
Just a slight covering but it looks great, Cheers danny.
On 19 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL! Fred and RUSS interesting. MIA - WildJetStream pressure patterns are increasingly wild as the maps Show - available soon to BI 45d, Eu full, BI whole winter inc. SSW. RUSS thanks re photos ; the December snowy bit but rain in the South was only about one degC short of a major blizzard snow event in the South as you of course know but a lot don't! === ALL 2/3OFF OFFER now over but continuing in popular services as 50%OFF 12 months for time being review on 22nd when 30d subs apply for next month and this month free.
On 19 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
-3 this morning at 7.45 a.m nice sky, widespread frost and ice, a tiny bit of sunshine first off but then mostly overcast all day reached 3 deg. Now 1 deg. @ 21.55 pm light sleety stuff the last hour on n off..
On 19 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
For us it has been the coldest day so far this winter, -2˚C at 7.30 ‘warming’ to 0˚ by early afternoon and down to -3˚ by 9pm, bracing stuff. Nothing like Perthshire of course, but then we’re only about 3 miles from the North Sea as the crow flies. Another sunny day though, we keep saying how lucky we are with that and are enjoying it to the full. Keen but light W’ly breeze today, MO says more snow overnight, we have about an inch lying on our hill.
On 19 Jan 2015, Matt B wrote:
The fact the AO/NAO is positive is the reason for the breakdown in the cold. Our next chance is in feb with maybe a (SSW) if so this could be the final nail in the coffin disrupting the polar vortex. I would expect next year to be a very cold winter as solar activity will be weaker and America to have a milder winter. This will help the upstream weaker
On 19 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Keep getting a dusting of sleet and powder snow here. Keeps turning the car into an ice cube every morning. Generally melting more quickly than it can re-accumulate. The mountains of Scotland are looking awesomely beautiful. I'll get to see them first hand on Wednesday as I'll be in Blairgowrie. I'll send you a couple of nice photo's Piers. Another strong, fast pulse of jet-stream air blasting down from Greenland straight at the UK. I reckon Piers could get his deep December snow anytime soon. Almost all the right conditions are being met; it's all down to how the jet-stream pulses affect the ridges of high pressure over the UK. It could slow the pulses enough to hold the snowfall over the country, along the length of the HP ridge, and if that happens (like 2010-11), then we'll all be knee deep in the stuff!
On 19 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Well here on the shores of the med today it was bloody cold with a keen wind it was a cold day 48f to a high of 50f and cloudy with the odd shower not nice.
Will bring you some warmer weather back at the weekend, this is prob down to the good old jet stream.
On 19 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
As I expected no snow down south and infact it looks pretty much like a non event for the UK, Not cold enough
and precipitation only light even if solar factors kick in. Looks like all forecasters got this one wrong!
On 19 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
although weather is colder than piers thought, the models synoptically are showing so much now time what Piers had in mind. Piers re pressure maps re Feb, my post you had to decline and apologies for that, but thanks that you are releasing them soon. Up to now Jan has been excellent...keep up the great work. For me temps are a by product as slight tilts here and there can lead to very different temp profiles, synoptics are what its all about and spot on thus far.
On 19 Jan 2015, Alistair of Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Some individuals on the Netweather forum are saying... "The current cold spell is only due to a trough over Europe steering the Jet South to the west of the UK and towards the Med". they go on to say.... It's the lifting of the trough down there later this week that flattens the Jet flow this coming weekend to return milder WSW winds".
There certainly seems to be conflicting views depending on which weather site you visit.
On 19 Jan 2015, brandon wrote:
Well do far this year down here for the counties of england it's been snow free this year so far I understand were unlikely to get snow being this far but models are not trending for snow here in the far south if anything we would be lucky for a flurrie this year so far this winter has proved snow less piers hat off to you for being spot on so far! But I'm thankful I haven't subscribed just yet but these frosty mornings are alright I guess aha ill be checking for updates but very unlikely for us here in Hampshire to have decent snowfall
On 18 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Very changeable weather today: dusting snow overnight, frozen ground but rain around 7am, 1˚C at 7.30 rising to 2˚ eventually on another brilliant sunny day. Occasional snow showers & then heavier wet snow after 8pm, only about half an inch though, 1˚ in thermometer but crackling with frost underfoot.
On 18 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
So NOAA have released their State of the climate report and 2014 roars in as the hottest year on record by 0.04C. No, the decimal point is in the right place and the zeros are correct as well - it is just 4 hundredths of a degree warmer than 2010. Not even a tenth of a degree and not even half of a tenth of a degree - just 4 hundredths. Bet we all notice that - must wear shorts today it is 4 hundredths of a degree warmer than yesterday. But - you probably expected one - tucked away further in the report and missing from all the fanfares is the uncertainty of the dataset - plus or minus 0.09C. The uncertainty of the dataset is over twice the much trumpeted increase over 2010. But, there's more. Hidden away in the links on NOAA's page is the Calculating the probability of rankings for 2014 which says that there is only a 48% chance that 2014 is the hottest year which they translate as 'more unlikely than likely'. WUWT provides this info and another omission of importance.
On 18 Jan 2015, Alistair wrote:
Sunday 830pm and its just stared snowing here in Hull, East Yorkshire.
The first snow of the winter in these parts, in fact since 2013 if my memory serves me correctly.
It has also come as quite a surprise as I'm sure it wasn't forecast by any of the local weather stations.
Although it is only a light dusting at the moment, it may just be a signs of things to come, I may even purchase Piers Feb forecast to see what is in store for my area.
On 18 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
just watched the MObeeb weekly forecast on Countryfile. Weirdly it did not mention the increased cloud cover we are having this evening and the strong wind that has come up--almost as if a blizzard is due.
On 18 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
MObeeb, now backtracking from their -14/15C minimum in Scotland tonight, but still pretty crisp at -10 or so.
On 18 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL === ALL Keep reports coming in and send pics. Best to tweet them It's easy === FEB 45d Yes I can see some of you want The Pressure possible scenario maps (and note one Comm disallowed because it gives away too much and any reply even more) so we will release those to B+I 45d and longer ahead and B+I Whole-Winter-Now === REMINDER to ALL! It's a NO-BRAINER THAT GETTING THE LONGEST POSSIBLE SUB NOW including B+I Whole-Spring-Now which is also really exciting, AND EXTENSIONS TO EXISTING SUBS, IS A MUST TO SAVE MONEY. Please pass this on too by retweets and calls to anyone you know who might BENEFIT!
On 18 Jan 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Snow in the area tonight just a dusting here but Guisborough only 6 miles away gridlock lol shame we cant survive with a inch or two without roads becoming dangerous maybe they use better salt in Europe :)
On 18 Jan 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Wouwee what a Feb forecast Piers must have worked hard on that one! Another 72 mm of rain so far this month total of156mm still way short of last Jan's total of 376mm
On 18 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Similar again today -1 @ 7.45 a.m ice frost and a tiny bit of snow here n there, roads looked bad again and pleasant sunshine and mostly blue sky all day, frost still about in sheltered spots and max 4 deg. Feeling much colder with a N breeze..Some areas here had more snow the last couple of days..
On 18 Jan 2015, Sue G ( 30 day subscriber) wrote:
It's supposed to be 3 degrees here in Cambridge this afternoon (according to the computer department) but I just had lunch sitting outside in the sunshine and it was glorious. The snow the BBC and Met Office forecast hasn't happened today - but they only forecast it intermittently so maybe that doesn't count.
On 18 Jan 2015, WENDY wrote:
sub High Peak,Derbyshire.
Plenty of snow in Buxton today,about 5/6 inches.Fog too.It's snowing now. With wind chill -3.Side roads really bad.
On 18 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Out in the fresh air yesterday, and was it fresh! Good coating of frost and cold under the blue sky. About mid-morning though it clouded over and large flakes of snow started drifting down. It was settling slightly on the cold ground but never amounted to much. As it gradually warmed the next precipitation was sleet and then finally it became a bit of light rain before clearing away. Stayed relatively cold. All change this morning with low cloud hanging in the trees and light rain.
On 18 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The words 'straw' and 'clutching' come to mind with regard to the 'warmest year ever'. But then this year everything will be Paris Paris Paris as the warmists prepare for their next evangelical gathering. The Ministry of Truth will be working overtime to try to convince the increasingly disinterested public that there is a crisis and that they need to be made poorer to combat it. UN chief Banki Moon has claimed that climate change is the World's biggest problem. Really? Not ebola then? The growing refugee problem? Shame his own UN survey didn't agree. I would agree with Russ in his response to jpt that cheats will be found out eventually and that once the temperature downturn really starts, they will be more and more stretched to either hide it or explain the ever-increasing failure of the models to match reality. The Mensa link is increasing but I somehow doubt that climate activists have ever been through a 'cool thinking phase'. They just follow their dear leaders.
On 18 Jan 2015, C View wrote:
Follow tis link for great photo snow on Cairbgorm Mountain access road. https://www.facebook.com/CairnGormMtn/photos/a.141840099242850.31766.138991532861040/772012779558909/?type=1
On 18 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
Jpg wrote about the political class and the left wing propergandising by Your BBBC types harabin ect, our voices have been banned by our broadcasters as they would not notice the truth if it bit there a**s, now the only political party that is on our side to any degree is UKIP. So I am voting for them.
P.S. My 45day has not arrived in my in box as yet I wait with great interest.
On 18 Jan 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Hi certainly been trending colder with each of the last four days ,a nice crisp frost this morning no winds just like winter oh it is lol!! you would not think so the way they keep going on about a warming world!!just waiting for the 45 day forecast to load mine has not yet ,hopefully Piers has had a bigger demand! plenty of winter left lets see if things get interesting!!
On 18 Jan 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
also we have “Predictions in 2007 of an ice free Arctic summer by 2013 did not come to pass, but I’m sure they stirred many to act. If you’re thinking that that’s not a bad thing. Then you’ve fallen into “noble cause corruption”. Fear can make people less concerned about overstating a case, in order to gain traction. This in turn creates more hysteria. But in the longer run, it sacrifices credibility”. But for the science, which rivals Weatheraction for information content, I would recommend joining the Space Special Interest Group of Mensa.
On 18 Jan 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Have just read this months edition of the Mensa Magazine were on page 25 it advises people to learn Latin as a protection against the politically correct, public relations English, of the BBC’s Orwellian newspeak. It gives you an idea why the BBC regards the English language qualifications of its climate experts, such as Roger Harrabin, as being more important than science qualifications. We have these thoughts. “there have been occasions when I’ve tried to discuss science with climate change activists, and heard the answer back: “We don’t need to discuss this, we need to act now.” These people had passed the point of cool thinking. They certainly had time to talk, but were unable to marshal any arguments.”
On 17 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Just about -3˚C at 7.30, hard frost, yet another sunny day, rising to 2˚ max, W’ly breeze, -2˚ again by 10.30pm. MO forecasts some snow for us tomorrow.
On 17 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Going to b seriously cold Sun night into Monday then a slider low pressure crosses UK....guess when.....yes during R5 period 20/21.....could be impactual for many.
Piers, any update of the 15-45 day Feb release?
On 17 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Ron... It appears that the A82 near the Glencoe ski centre has about 2ft of snow at the roadside. Looks deep away from the road too. Not much to talk about elsewhere and very localised, which is the way snow is of course. Decent accumulations as far south as the Rest And Be Thankful pass on the A83. Some on Isle of Skye too.
On 17 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
1 deg. @ 9.30 a.m ice frost and just a smattering of snow, 3 deg. Now @ 13.34 had some sleety rain which melted stuff mostly.. Clouds gathering..
On 17 Jan 2015, Paul wrote:
It start snowing at 1115am today in Lowestoft. First time since March/April 2013. Some quite large flakes have been falling but not that heavy.
On 17 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Just had our first snow of the season, it lasted about an hour and was quite heavy sometimes. It didnt settle on the pathways or roofs and is fast dispersing. i recon thats it for us, as models not showing any for us next week, and being a 30 day sub have no clue about Feb except that piers says cold start for Feb.
On 17 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
So....its official and we all have to agree (according to our free and independant BBC) that man has and is causing the global warming. Whatever is happening to the earth would have happened anyway. Its a natural cycle so we need to adapt, not tax the life out of everyone and spend the proceeds on pointless projects. Rant over.
It seems plain to me that the MOBeeb and other weather websites cannot forecast more than a day ahead at the moment. And all this coincides with the jet stream moving South. Its pointless looking at weather forecasts on the tv as they have no idea whats going on. Next weeks cold spell looks likely not to happen now....or it will.....or its uncertain!
On 17 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Weatherwise we are living on the edge as usual. +1.4C and blizzard conditions on the M6 west of Birmingham yesterday around 2:30. Here in the valleees it's sort of hot-cold-hot-cold with bits of gales mixed with sporadic flurries of drizzle, sleet, snow, hail and an occasional blast of UV from our resident star.... Frost again this mornin'!
On 17 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
jpt..... Isn't it always the cheat who wins? Look at sport over the last couple of decades. Tour de France, Olympics, Football and Cricket. All sport has been corrupt though, since it became popular tv fodder back in the 60s. Lance Armstrong being a perfect example of corruption at it's dirtiest. You are conned from the day you are born when they come sticking venom into your body in the form of vaccines. Keep your immune systems clean & healthy folks. Our 5yr old Westie charges around like a 6 month old puppy because we don't feed him dog food and the only vaccines he had were at the breeders before we took him home. Lean meat and vegetables. He also has pearly white teeth all the way back to the gums throughout his mouth yet we never clean his teeth...just think about that for a moment! His brother has yellow & brown teeth. His owners feed him dog food and have his teeth professionally cleaned annually-still yellow though. Observation finding evidence, looked at against a benchmark.
On 16 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Back to the freezer with a vengeance today, 1˚C at 7.30 but ground frozen and freezing ever harder all day in beautiful sunshine and biting W’ly wind. Already -1˚ at 5pm but 0˚ again by 10pm, which is a bit surprising. == Thanks for SSW update, Piers.
On 16 Jan 2015, jpt wrote:
Well here we are again with 'The Warmest Year on Record (Confirmed)' www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30852588
It's all very well Piers etc saying that the Warmists are totally discredited and the game is up etc - THEY aren't and IT isn't because they control the media so unless Piers etc get some very good friends in the media VERY quickly then I'm afraid the Warmists will continue to win.
They have the backing of governments, media, scientists, schools, broadcasters (I can't watch TV for fear of the dreaded Climate Change BS in MOST programmes nowadays) and it is all presented as fact and there are no dissenting voices on TV.
So Piers, get cosy with the media and politicians etc
etc or really what's the point?
The Warmists are liars and WRONG but they are winning and have probably actually won and even if the planet cools so dramatically that cooking the books won't hide it they'll call 'Global Cooling/ Climate Change' and carry on regardless.
On 16 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
wind has gone round to the west in Scotland with snow causing problems in the Central Belt. MObeeb seemed surprised by this and an active belt of snow coming down from the north tomorrow evening, affecting much of the Central Highland and eastern parts. No mention of this at lunchtime
On 16 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I suspect the West Midlands, East Midlands northwards will see the most snow next week. It just look too mild to me further south apart from higher ground. I have seen similar scenarios before and the mild air will win out after a couple of pushes into the cold air, so I think by as early as next Thursday it will turn milder across England!
On 16 Jan 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
More preaching from the BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30841686
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30852588
Of coarse NO comments are allowed to counter their claims and to think how much Licence fee we have to pay. Who would believe in the 21st Century Britain we have state sponsored propaganda
Joseph Goebbels and Lord Haw Haw's descendants alive & well in the BBC
On 16 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Both GFS and Norwegian MO going for a cold week ahead with GFS predicting it getting milder from the 23rd, nut the other suggesting the cold weather persisting into the weekend.
On 16 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Thanks for the warning Mr Parker i'l be sure to take you're advice on that one :-)
On 16 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
MARIA- NEVER eat the yellow snow!
On 16 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Also Yellow ice and snow warning up earlier too..
On 16 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Has not got above 3 deg. today in the Midlands and frost patches here and there never left despite the lovely sunny blue sky day we have had, some small amount of cloud here n there and re freezing again now at 16.07 could actually feel it begin after the bus at 3 pm don't think it cleared some places at all today as accidents due to icy roads and snow showers in some parts.
On 16 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Just had an update from a friend in Chicago. Apparently temperatures have soared into the low 40s (Fahrenheit). Then it's meant to plunge back down into the freezer again next week. They're hating the cold over there now. Just thought you should know Piers - it does seem to correlate excellently with the USA forecast for January so far. :-)
On 16 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
The MObeeb, must have read my last post as they have, as per the BBC lunchtime forecast, now gone for -14 rather than -12C for Highland snowfield areas!
On 16 Jan 2015, Mike wrote:
With all this confusion about SSW i forgot the 45day forecast is due out.
Should be a interesting read.
On 16 Jan 2015, Brandon wrote:
Interesting times ahead !!! From my own perspective January's a tough year to subscribe but I'm going to try very soon... piers I will say this for the southern part of england including southern coasts too I can see a picture for the 18/19 I hope this is true piers could we be in for blizzards I reckon I hope so if this picture is correct this could be exciting
On 16 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Interesting update by Piers. Although I have to say there was a whiff of this in Piers original forecast. Positioning of a certain pressure anomaly could be 'crucial ' to what surface weather would be like for NW Europe. Looks like positioning has gone for cold. Having said that models are backtracking quickly today to a less pronounced cold outlook......are they right?
On 16 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
If the MObeeb are predicting minus 12C for the Highland snowfield areas, we can expect it to be several degrees colder in reality. It a frozen slush nightmare here, off the main roads.
On 16 Jan 2015, se Eire sub wrote:
Thanks so much Piers for the update. Indeed several of my apps are mentioning snow next week. Each one give snow on different days ie no agreement. None can be definitive when or where, such is the unpredictability of snow. Lovely bright sunshine all morning here.
On 16 Jan 2015, Ian wrote:
The SSW update today is confirmation that Piers forecasts are like an old clock which is running either too fast or too slow!
On 16 Jan 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I am standing by and getting ready, thank you so much for the very informative update
On 16 Jan 2015, Sue G ( 30 day subscriber) wrote:
That update is fascinating and will I am sure be very helpful. Thanks vv much. Great work.
On 15 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine /GCI - very strong gusting winds last night ! It's interesting how the weather changes so quickly - from mild to very cold - it's almost like you expect heavy snow at some point ..
On 15 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Heavy rain overnight & strengthening SW wind, 3˚C at 7.30. Gale force winds all day, getting more ferocious in the afternoon, reasonably sunny morning, cloudy with some rain by 3pm. Part of our wooden garden fence was blown down, due to a rotten post, but on the whole we’ve gotten off lightly compared to further west & south. Heard from a friend that his wife was stuck in Fife on an Aberdeen bound train because the Tay Bridge was closed to trains, that doesn’t often happen. 5˚ by 10pm, much calmer, even quiet for a couple of hours tonight. == Saskia, I enjoyed the Friesian videos, it seems to me there is not much between you and the sea if it decides to get cross! Also love the language, sounds like a mixture between Dutch and Plattdütsch as well as having its own vocabulary.
On 15 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Rained on and off all day after a dry first part, Soggy cold & windy with some gusts but tailed off by early evening, stars out and around 2 deg now @ 21.12 feeling much colder.. cheers for update Piers
On 15 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Hi all we were walking along the coast by the med and guess what 2 hardy souls we're in for a swim and they were not young I thought good luck to you thinking what the inlaws were saying we had last night wind and cold with rain, planted a orange and a lemon tree in the garden Wednesday how about that, by the way we had a good tail wind on the flight over we arrived on time but left a good 20+ mins late the jet stream for ya. Temp here today mid to high 60s nice how about that then Ron.
On 15 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I will give myself a pat on the back for spotting this upcoming cold spell and bringing it to the attention of people on here! I also did comment on the possibility of this period being the "polar opposite" to what was forecast. Well done Piers by the way - top stuff.
On 15 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Thanks for the update Piers
On 15 Jan 2015, Alistair from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
I'm no weather expert but I've just been reading some of the comments on the netweather models forum and its like reading a death scene in a script from the east enders soap program.
There's so much gloom and doom from certain members and it seems to be the same people all the time that find a negative within a positive for those looking for a snowy outlook.
The thing that makes me laugh the most is the fact that these people are talking about a breakdown of a likely cold weather situation before its even started for many and base their predictions on models that are 10 days out .
Even the met don't dare make such bold predictions with their supposed super computers models.
On 15 Jan 2015, Sue G ( 30 day subscriber) wrote:
Is the update on SSW available yet to subscribers? Eager to read what might be happening next! In The Hague current weather is extraordinarily horrid - torrential rain, strong winds and it has been going on since Saturday. Will it end soon? Or change? Fascinating.
On 15 Jan 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Very heavy rain overnight 50mm of it bringing Jan total to168mm very heavy squally showers this morning.
On 15 Jan 2015, danny wrote:
The winds picked up here in Bn27 East Sussex early hours,
woke me up. I wish this bloody rain would stop the ground is totally saturated with fields flooded. We need some snow and
then i can let the old lurcher dogs have a good run without
them coming back smothered in slimy wet mud. Oh yeah my
Coney casserole was delish thanks to 1 of my lurcher dogs.
Keep up the good work MAINMAN and best wishes to top brass
and supporters of the magic that is Weather Action...
On 15 Jan 2015, Simon Bell wrote:
Wow. What a wild night across Wales with both wind damage and flooding. I agree with Stephen Parker it looks as if the first UK wide taste of winter is about to begin and could well persist for a week or more. Stay warm. Stay safe.
On 15 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
It appears that lots of places in Scotland got lots of rain and some got lots of snow last night, but my visual portal to the Highlands namely, Traffic Scotland live traffic cameras, had all the cameras on high ground 'out of order'! Slochd and Drumochter A9 summits, and the Rannoch Moor sited Altnafeadh A82, the very remote Aultguish A835 were all missing as were others...pfft! I've seen -21C and waist deep snow yet most of the cameras at high points we're still working. So it seems odd that rain, sleet & snow plus a couple of degrees of frost can knock out 90% of the cameras on very high ground. I did notice over the past couple of days that Ard Dorch on the Isle of Skye had a dusting of snow. Lack of maintenance I guess!
On 15 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
a brief thaw, with rain, but now turning sleety with the odd flake as colder air starts to dig in. Snowploughs heading up to Drumochter.
On 15 Jan 2015, C View wrote:
Challenging weather overnight in Highland Scotland. A metre of snow on the A9 with 8 ploughs battling to keep it it open. More info and pics here. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30803524
On 15 Jan 2015, Mike Barnes wrote:
Hi Piers
Has the update, reporting on SSW Developments + Winter implications been uploaded to the subscribers yet?
I checked this morning, but could not see it.
On 15 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A windy stormy night but not as much as expected here, some strong gusts but as yet not the Orange status warned of, seems like it could give us some more later today, blue sky sun and 3 deg @ 9.49 a.m feels colder and still windy, my daughter saw lightning and heard thunder early this a.m for a few bursts, some small hail on the veg plot in places which I guess was earlier too. Winds here showed 60 kph last night but gusted a bit more poss. after this, some counties without power I believe and had worse but thankfully nothing too extreme here last night as per Piers thoughts..
On 15 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
RON GREER Blimey Ron, that sounds a bit severe!. Down here in the south we have no idea what winter really is!. We have had a fairly uneventful winter so far, but i know its been rough up north. I for one find your posts informative and entertaining-- keep it up!
On 15 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Re paul and piers- I have no skill or expertise in weather forecasting, but its clear Models have no skill more than five days out, but hey, anyone who visits this site or subscribes has an interest in the weather and an opinion.From viewing other sites, it does appear we are in for a cold snap next week, which incidentally has been forecast by some models for a number of weeks.
On 14 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Ground still frozen solid all day, temps hovering between 0˚C and 1˚, keen, cold & stiff SW’ly wind (returning polar air, that’s why, Russ) all day and then rain by 7pm from the approaching warm front. Still tipping & blowing it at 10pm, temp now 3˚, the term dreich is applicable. == Steve Dorset, thanks for the compliment, I was beginning to get used to be a wimp :-) Patronising or not, we got some good humorous mileage out of the East :-)
On 14 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
SANDY REID: I think the deer know better than the Met Office!. I remember John Kennedy telling me that just before one of the big blizzards in 1984, of the deer running down Glen Garry from Drumochter towards Calvine and the day after Ian Kennedy took a photo of old Norman's hut at the level crossing, with only the chimney visible sticking out of the snowdrift!
On 14 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Models still show the wintry theme next week for 5 days or more. They are all on board now, so I would say about 70% chance of it happening. It looks cold rather than very cold though. Looks like middle of the week could bring some decent snow events. What are your thoughts on this Piers? You did predict the jet steam would dive South!
On 14 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
SO WHAT NEXT - BEWARE OF MODEL SPECULATION! PAUL (not subscriber unless under another name) You write (Reader Comm below): "The remainder of this winter looks mainly Atlantic dominated........" This is not anything you can possibly know from computer models. I am not saying if this is true or not in terms of our SolarLunarAction Technique (of unrivalled and proven skill) but subscribers to Whole-Winter-Now(Br+Ire) and our included (or separate) SuddenStratoWarming (SSW) forecast which is being borne out as we speak have useful advice on complicated Wild Jet Stream developments upon us consequent on the SSW etc. Standard models in present weeks cannot have a clue more than a few days ahead and fluctuate as wildly as the Jet Stream (the wild state of which standard warmist models admit they cannot comprehend). We will shortly TONIGHT be UPDATE-REPORTING ON SSW DEVELOPMENTS +WINTER IMPLICATIONS BI+EU+USA - News of this will be posted on HomePage and the docume pdf loaded for subscribers.
On 14 Jan 2015, Paul wrote:
The remainder of this winter looks mainly Atlantic dominated with low pressure systems and short lived blocking at times. For what I've seen from weather forecasts is next week, there could be snow for most of the UK and this cold spell could last for more than a week. No sign of really cold easterlies or North easterlies setting in.This current El nino never really got going. El Niños seems to be weakening and la ninas becoming stronger perhaps down to solar influences. I think that each winter since 2013/14 is going to get progressively colder with strong blocking as solar activity drops until solar activity picks up again for cycle 25. The weak El nino might have been enough to slow down the Arctic sea ice extent for this year as sea temperatures are still quite high. Perhaps a strong La Niña will have the opposite effect.
On 14 Jan 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subr) wrote:
Thundersnow http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-30814403 didn't Piers invent the phrase?
On 14 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset.UK. Sub wrote:
My goodness Ron I knew that you had winters in the highlands of Scotland but you have opened my eyes to the extremes you get you are a hardy lot up there. Me I am enjoying temps of 22c today as I am in Spain enjoying some sun on the Costa,s nice walking weather here with lavender out in flower, lovely. Enjoy your snow.
On 14 Jan 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
I am not that fond of ice and snow, but I hate strong winds because of Oct 87.The forecast is for a lot of strong winds down here in the SE corner tonight/ tomorrow. Brings back memories of January 1990 when there was a lot of damage done and greater loss of life - more than in 87 - because the storm happened in the day. I could almost say - and do -I'd rather have a dose of snow than these gales that are coming.
On 14 Jan 2015, Sandy Reid wrote:
Hi Ron I saw deer by the road on the hill out of Calvine as I came down on tues pm Went up and down A9 ! They will soon be in your garden. I have always assumed that when they come right down off the hill ..... Have they got a supercomputer? Not nearly as bad as it can be up there but the deer seem to think its coming
Got to try to get up the roud again on thurs. Eastside you have to feel it to get it.
On 14 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
EASTSIDE: We can get temperatures well below -25C here in the Highlands and not the namby pamby type of crispy,dry-36 C I experienced in the Yukon, but a damp penetrating misery. We can get, as we did last year, level falls in excess of 10 metres and drifts, due to the 100-200 kph winds we frequently get, of over twice that. Trains and furniture truck sized vehicle get buried and our hills are just under the permanent snowline. The only frost free month is July and snow falls can occur in any month of the year. Please cease patronising us.
On 14 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Orange warning up to Red now on met.ie and yellow now to orange for Ireland for wind, I guess if they overestimate it really it is better than underestimating like they have before so I guess a short range necessity, let's hope it's not as bad as they say though..
On 14 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
east side wrote " Do you have the slightest idea what a normal winter is like in Russia? " my parents had a couple years camping experience of it courtesy of stalin. It is a different world of timber wolves and snow edges frozen as sharp as glass. They did discover if you threw all the clothes out into the snow the lice would leave
On 14 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
well simple things please simple people n all that we have had a heap of fun this morning till lunch in the snow! A lot deeper than I thought up the garden, just received a load of logs and fire lit early now as cold but has risen to 5 deg. sleety rain is melting the object of our fun so time to call it a day and get in the warm, even more so after doing like Paddy and nearly putting myself on me backside! Wind picking up blustery to 32 kph at present also showing 992 mb pressure..
On 14 Jan 2015, Not supplied wrote:
Re straw man, point taken... I'd agree that quantum 'wave like particles' is an inadequate notion, we cannot know what they truly are, only construct models that describe their behaviour in certain circumstances. Feynmann and others warned of this and we need to come to terms with the contradictions. We don't have to be trapped in the 'rabbit hole' of quantum interpretation to apply the principles to practical problems and for everyday application we need not fret, QED & Newton ably describe the 'classical' world we inhabit. That aside, the transactional interpretation and the idea that any one mass is somehow 'aware' of all other mass in the universe instantaneously is not a magical quantum mystery, we use the quantum mechanics 'toolkit' to describe it, even though we may be uncomfortable with the interpretation and its implications.
On 14 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Re Lorraine & food shortages. Good to see the BBC is on form with its ouput. Utter nonsense of course since crop yields have been some of the highest on record last year. If there is a shortage of food might it be because farmers are planting solar panels because of the taxpayer subsidies or biofuel crops? Reports of a tornado in west London yesterday but nothing of note in Westminster. Cold with blue sky to start today and sunshine all the way so far.
On 14 Jan 2015, shuan wrote:
@East Side just wanted post because you posted here quite matter of factly telling people they were wrong, its not going to be cold or snowy and I just thought I'd point out to you after matter of fact statement that you were so wrong.
Not only has it snowed down at least as far as South Wales, but at shigher ground (350 to 400m) I was was just wading through knee and waist deep snow.
But if the Beeb are correct they also have South Wales to have a week of -3 next week.
On 14 Jan 2015, Andy wrote:
Eastside- Weather for us Brits is a huge matter of conversation because we get such a huge variety and we don't really know what is going to happen during each season. For you it is not a matter of conversation because in winter it is freezing cold for months with a lot of snow so it would be stupid commenting on the snow or temperature every time you see someone! Please try and understand why comment pages like this exist in this country and try not to get to hot and bothered about it!
On 14 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Over a foot( 30.5vm) level fall since last night, but no wind, so no real probs. Wimpy west of the Urals wind of 150kph + due tonight with snow on front edge of the next Atlantic system, so could be probs on the A9 at Drumochter and the Slochd. Plenty for the skiers if the chairlift stanchions don't get buried like last season, but with 200kph winds might be access probs.
On 14 Jan 2015, Henk wrote:
Also in the Netherlands this morning in some parts (west friesland) is falling wet snow...as I write this. You can check the temperatures via www.knmi.nl and in the north west part of Holland there is a small cold spot where it is snowing ..temp now 1 degree plus.
Forecast for next weekend are very exciting!!
On 14 Jan 2015, Barbara wrote:
Oh forgot to say we had thundersnow last night, see and heard over a large area, from Derry to Ballymoney.
On 14 Jan 2015, Barbara wrote:
Still only 0c here today on the north coast NI, and a good dollop of snow, lots of local schools closed, hoping the forecasted heavy rain, is just that!
On 14 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Alister... particles are definitely influencing each other at vast distances but this is not some magical quantum mystery, just misinterpretation of events, which is due to ignorance and bias brought about by preconceptions.. Both EM and gravity can act far faster than text books teach us yet we are so slow to play catch up. This doesn't mean that mass can exceed c, but both EM and gravitational signals can travel across vast distances, almost instantly, and connect particles of mass, and a change in one particle can influence a change in another. If we keep our heads shoved deep into the quantum rabbit hole, then I fear we shall never fully understand the world around us... Also, using a single physicist as a general example is not the setting up of a strawman argument, now now! If you re-read my post I said, the "World Wide Wastebin" of knowledge (otherwise known as the internet). We have snow this morning, about 53µm deep...
On 14 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Stu... I said in an earlier post that photon's are definitely particles. They exhibit wave-like behaviour yes, but this doesn't mean that they are both a wave and a particle, that's just 1960's textbook magic.... I can turn a light on, and this is observable and repeatable; it doesn't mean that I, or anyone else for that matter, fully understands what's happening. Completely wrong explanations abound in both textbooks and physics forums.
On 14 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
Apologies to Russ - Acceleration of g for 7 years, not 7g for a year. In either case this 'thought experiment spaceship' would have broken the speed of light 7.2 times. So this physicist you quote was wrong or was trying to demonstrate a point (can't imagine what though). Stu appears to imply that because non-radiative decay occurs more quickly than radiative decay, heat is transferred through the atmosphere by this mechanism. This implies that heat is trapped, supporting the GW hypothesis. Closer inspection reveals that whilst non radiative decay occurs faster, it is not the only mechanism at work. I'm simplifying a bit but (1) There is a probability (this is quantum mechanics!) of either mechanism occurring and (2) Non-radiative releases small amounts more quickly, then the rest emits radiatively (EM emission) and the drop in electron level is achieved.
On 14 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Russ, the double slit experiment is observable and repeatable, and not only with photons but other particles too (electrons, atoms etc). The best explanation is that these particles exhibit wave-like behaviour. But they're definitely particles, including photons. If you disagree with wave-particle duality and the idea that photons are particles, can you present alternative explanations for the double-slit result and the photoelectric effect?
Back to the weather - models expect the storm to 'bomb' today+tonight, with a drop of more than 24hPa over 24 hours. Very severe winds in the NW of the UK especially. Once it clears and brings colder air it looks like an extended spell of chilly weather at least until early next week, frosty and with a little snow at times but no major, widespread snow events in the near future.
On 14 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Piers stating this transition is colder than expected is very interesting indeed. Without giving the forecast away Piers mentions on period approaching that 'positioning' could be a vital factor in latter January. Now that could mean a multitude of things but rest assured its important and interesting and get the forecast to see why.....
On 14 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
@Russ Einstein never accepted non-locality 'spooky action at a distance' and this is well documented. The physics PhD you quote is wrong because his 'thought experiment' spaceship can't continue to accelerate at 7g, it bumps into the speed of light limit (in reality it wouldn't ever get close). In any case his craft would lose the time travel 'effect' as it decelerates back to rest. The inappropriate use of general relativity by one PhD does not represent the accumulated knowledge of physics, that's a straw man argument. You should know perfectly well that science is not a 'done deal', it is always subject to revision in the light of new evidence.
On 14 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
No buses running here and school is shut for the day :-)
Snow showers on and off yesterday evening and last one I noticed was around 1.40 a.m between 5-10 cm here this morn. looks beautiful but roads are very dodgy looking, off out to play with kids before it rains!-) -2 @ 7 a.m -1 now at 8.41..
On 14 Jan 2015, occasionally David wrote:
Some white stuff fell out of the sky in Birmingham last night. Not sure what it was. It's lying on the ground now trying to look picturesque. Alas, quantity is an issue, tis but the merest dusting. We look forward to the imminent arrival of the UN with snow ploughs and food parcels, in order to rescue us from this unprecedented arctic horror.
On 14 Jan 2015, east side wrote:
"one could almost believe one was on the East side of the Urals.".
WHAT on earth are you on about?
A few flakes of snow and you imagine you are out here????
This is the western edge of Ural region and we have the usual 6-8ft piles of snow in all the streets.
Last week it was -35C, since yesterday -2.
Do you have the slightest idea what a normal winter is like in Russia?
On 14 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine GCI- additional - interesting pics from NASA that look like a UFO coming out of a solar flare on December 24 2014
On 13 Jan 2015, Helen (45 day/ winter subscriber, Co. Leitrim Ireland) wrote:
Snow on & off all day here in mid-Leitrim (upland area), interspersed with sleet, rain & sunny intervals. Quite a thick blanket of snow now at 11 pm. Haven't been out today so don't know how bad it it is down the hill.Temp down to -2 this morning, & didn't seem to rise above 0 here all day. I gather there was widespread snow, especially in Co. Donegal & all the western counties. Now Met Eireann is warning of an Atlantic storm system with winds up to 130 kph on its way tomorrow http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/five-weather-warnings-issued-as-snow-falls-across-the-country-1.2064070 We had our first 2 storms here over the past week, as per Piers' forecast - not too bad here, but a lot of power outages in Co. Donegal. Was prepared for the winds (& likelihood of snow in Dec), but was anticipating a mildish January, so I've been caught out a bit this week.... But impressed by Piers' long range skill & very glad I got the winter forecast - lots more interesting weather to come!
On 13 Jan 2015, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:
Snowing gently at 10.30pm DST - Derbyshire Standard Time.
Settling a little and suddenly turned very cold; yet the wind is approx' WSW...how odd? Come on Gulfstream, warm up that cold air!
On 13 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
I was told that there had been some rain overnight and so, with -1˚C at 7.30 it was no surprise that I almost fell on my backside, everything was covered with a thin film of really smooth ice and the strong W’ly was keen and sharp all day. Plenty sunshine, temp hardly rose to 1˚ and is hovering around 0˚ now just after 10pm. MO is giving an orange snow warning for Fife & Perthshire for tomorrow, just yellow for us in the NE. == RON: ah yes, the Urals, I remember we knew them in the 80s , charming couple, lots of fun :-)
On 13 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// GCI - I see on BBC news tonight that the push to grow GM crops is based on a shortage of food due to a warming climate - oh dear!
On 13 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
The first half of the month spot on. The second half.......
On 13 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Think I messed up my comment again earlier, if not sorry for repeating myself ;-) Quite a heavy snow shower this morning but not enough to skip school much to the kids disappointment, but enough time for a quick snowball fight b4 school. 1 deg around 10 a.m felt colder, some nice sunshine for a time then clouded over. More snow showers around 3 pm accompanied by some thunder for a short time, enough snow to cover the ground for a small snowman or 2 giving the kids & I some fun until it got dark! shnowing again around 5.30 pm covered the footprints again and feeling nicely wintery in the short term :-) Bit nervous of the incoming storm due hopefully they have overestimated it.
On 13 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Stu and Alister.... I'm not going to start an endless debate about things which can't/don't exist and can't happen. I have better things to do. There are people who are happy with what they know, and people who see contradiction and impossibility and continue the searth for truth. Let me give you an example of the garbage that scientists still peddle on the world-wide wastebin of knowledge. This is from a best selling author with a physics PhD. He proposes a spaceship for future space travel, which can accelerate at g for 7 years. He goes on to say that after this time, over a thousand years will have passed by on earth but only about 15 years will have passed by on his ship. Accelerating at g for 7 years, his ship would, theoretically, be travelling at many times c (impossible?). Einstein 'did not' believe in the 'twin paradox' either, even though mainstream
physicists continue to preach that he did. Einstein is mis-quoted all over the place; he has to be to make quantum physics wor
On 13 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
The double slit and Aspect experiments, are what they are. Whilst we may not like the results (mostly because they provide apparently conflicting versions of classical physics (wave-particle duality, non-locality etc), they are not tripe. The explanation has to fit the results obtained. The subsequent interpretations may (or not) be to your taste.
On 13 Jan 2015, ian wood wrote:
kenmare Kerry
don't know what the prediction is. but its been gusting for a few days with rain at times .just now there has been thunder and lightening and it is snowing and continuing to gust and blow
On 13 Jan 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - I am aware of how the models work. GFS has performed reasonably well lately and it looks like ukmo and ecm are trending towards cold and snow next week. If they still show this come Friday get prepared! Of course we know what could happen next week anyway!
On 13 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Reports of hail, thunder, lightning and flakes of snow from Thorpe in Surrey at 1pm today. Intense squall line now crossing Greater London with thick angry blobs on the radar hurtling towards us from the West. Winds are really picking up in the downpour here, temps dropped sharply too. Good potential for dusting of snow over the Downs and hills overnight tonight. Chance of E/NE'lies next week. One to watch.
On 13 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: thanks for your appreciation. It is quite deep and crisp and even on the ground, the flakes are falling almost vertically now, it's like a Xmas card, but when in the Larch-Pine woods on Atholl Estates, one could almost believe one was on the Eastside of the Urals.
On 12 Jan 2015, brandon wrote:
Finally snow looking very imminent for us southerners for tomorrow but the very sad news is this ain't going to be well lived atall who knows if it will lay even if so it won't be enough for disruption or a skiving off work excuse so snow looks promising but nothing significant yet
On 12 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Amazing 7˚ at 7.30, sub gale force SW’lies bringing that warmth, but by about 10am it got noticeably colder to 3˚. Sunny all day though, bar the occasional shower, wind turning into W bringing returning sub polar air, 1˚ at 10pm with slight frost & still quite windy. == Ron Greer: nice one, what a bunch of wimps we are, eh?
On 12 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Russ, what's your take on the double-slit experiment (other than that it's 'tripe')?
On 12 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Bspin your questions are quite insulting. You said: 'what did you not understand when i referred to the 'Frequency' of the CO2 molecule?' Nothing. Frequency and wavelength of electromagnetic energy are interchangeable. ''Billiard Balls'?one atom smashes into another and transfers all of it's energy(or part thereof)? the energy just moves, it still stays the same.' Agreed, the energy is transferred. 'Now back to 'Photons',how much heat is in a photon?' Well technically none, a photon can't have a temperature. It has an energy though: E=hf, f being the frequency and h Planck's constant. 'P.S. Can you convert those Wavelenghths to Frequencies please' Why should I? Frequency and wavelength are two ways of expressing the same thing: f=c/l, c being speed of light, l wavelength. Do you own calculations.
'why (does) the co2 molecule has 'Gaps' in it's absorption of I.R.Energy" Because it doesn't absorb certain wavelengths/frequencies. I am familiar with what is termed the atmospheric window.
On 12 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Bspin.... I'm saying nowt, except that sometimes, a little tasty bait can teach you a great deal about someone wink wink.... re: photons... The photon has been virtualised and dualised and is so mysterious and unbelievably unfathomable nowadays that no one cares what they are any more I guess. It's definately a particle and the waviness/frequency is misunderstood. All this tripe about the double slit experiment is enough to make you choke on your own saliva, its so ridiculous. Any road up...... This latest storm has been a 'perfect storm' in the way it's timing corresponded to a large quake, storms and unusual snowfall across the globe. I don't know how many times an event, is seen to be triggered by another event, before the science bods at the BeBeCe connect the dots. Very heavy rain this afternoon across the south. Started very windy but eased by the time the heavy rain began. Pretty mild too.
On 12 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
just noticed that the Norwegian MO is going for a cold snowy spell in the Grampians 13 to 22nd January.
On 12 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID in Yorkshire. GFS is notoriously fickle especially after 3-5days sometimes changes, then comes back to original.
On 12 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sounded a little windy and rainy early morning, typical winters Monday morning where you wish it was still the weekend! Cleared up and not a bad day really, breezy few light showers some dry spells too reached 9 deg. 4 now at 20.21 pm another cooler incursion..
On 12 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Still waiting for MOBeeb to issue an amber warning for Wednesday.....they dont seem too bothered. The latest blog from them says that most of the country will see yellow warnings at some point this week. I would have thought that 70mph winds would warrent amber....
Anyway Piers, you are doing amazing work with your forecasts! Its also good to see someone else from my neck of the woods at the end of the M62!!
On 12 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
I don't dispute that NZ is very dry on the east coast of both islands http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/64864107/Little-sign-of-rain-as-ground-keeps-getting-drier but what I do dispute is the 'science' behind this.
On 12 Jan 2015, Alistair from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
It will be interesting to see if the GFS model plays out with the snow for next Monday onwards, we have been here before only to see the models change their outlook.
What we really need in this neck of the woods is an Easterly or N/e for some real snowfall to occur, it will be interesting to see if we get such a set up this month or in February.
On 12 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
GFS shows a very cold period starting from the 18th of this Month with snow for most of the UK. Other models do not show this from what I can make out. GFS did model the weekend storms quite well so we shall see!
On 12 Jan 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
C View - you could rename it 'water-ski Sunday' - especially if you see some of the fields around here!
On 12 Jan 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
some michael but a hell of a lot of opposites its just my theory but id say its at least a 70/30 split
On 12 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
showers have now turned to snow here at 140m in Highland Perthshire from just after 1100hrs, winds brisk but much stronger in showers. Looks like a very interesting 48 hr period coming up.
On 12 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
EASTSIDE: Didn't recognise that as a Russian name at first. Our wimpy weather continues here in Scotland and only 10,000 of the 100,000+ homes that lost power supply after that 225 kph gentle breeze we got remain to be reconnected. The repair crews are having an easy day today as the winds are only 140-150 kph. A wee bit trickier for the mountain rescue teams in the Cairngorms as they had 300 kph winds and whiteout blizzards to contend with. An indifferent ski-ing season this year compared to the best conditions in Europe and record snows of last season and the generally good seasons of the last 5 or 6 years. Still one can't complain when you have an oceanic subarctic climate similar to montane southern Greenland.
On 12 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Currently temperatures of 7.7C with 2.6C windchill and 6BF wind; 83% rel. humidity, -1007hPa / Storm has stripped the Ameland island dunes over a length of 100m http://bit.ly/1xfreiT / Frisian coastal area flooded, see here for pics & flics http://bit.ly/14nUcGy / Strongest (official) windgust again in our area; 96km/hr.
On 12 Jan 2015, Bspin wrote:
Stu,
you must stop reading Wikipedia and work things out for yourself and not be led to 'Believe' all you have been taught.Worst of all, do not become a 'Parrot' of the Teachers.
Did you know that the 'Photon' is just a figment of some-ones imagination? i,e, 'A THEORY'?.
Also what did you not understand when i referred to the 'Frequency' of the CO2 molecule? What part of Frequencies of Molecular Vibration did you not understand?
'Billiard Balls'?one atom smashes into another and transfers all of it's energy(or part thereof)? the energy just moves, it still stays the same.
Now back to 'Photons',how much heat is in a photon?
P.S.
Can you convert those Wavelenghths to Frequencies please,and work out why the co2 molecule has 'Gaps' in it's absorption of I.R.Energy.
Thanks in advance.
On 11 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30 but ground thoroughly frozen, thin layer of snow in a few sheltered spots which always stay frozen longer, good W’ly breeze, clear sky to start with but then clouding over for the rest of the day. Max temp 3˚ during the day but rising to 4˚ by 10pm. We went a few miles inland today and higher up where there was the slightest dusting of snow in parts. The higher hills in the distance visibly have more of it. == East Side: most of the people who want or talk about snow are not subscribers, the rest of us know what’s in store for the remainder of January. And as I said earlier, winter isn’t over until it is.
On 11 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR ONGOING COMMS == JET STREAM AND ALL THAT, Mike, CView,Tony, ETC: Yes there is not a simple rule like cold USA East means mild UK & NW Eu, take eg DEC 2010 cold in both. Nevertheless in terms of JetStream low latitude JS USA COLD can also mean high latitude UK MILD. However if the JS gets extra waves, termed a higher K number, then the high latitude bit can be in mid-Atlantic and cold in both USA and UK. Extra waviness ie higher Knumber will always follow SuddenStratospheric Warmings, SSW, BUT IF the extra waves are shifted one way or another very mild might come UK or eg East USA not a snow deluge. Readers who have the SSW FORECAST which is included in The BI-WHOLE-WINTER-NOW forecast understand thee complications which will make standard meteorology completely impotent more than a few days out for many weeks. === SO IT'S TIME TO GET THE SPECIAL OFFER SUBS! I Have to say I am very puzzled there are not many more new subs or sub extensions yet responding, pass info on!!
On 11 Jan 2015, Mike wrote:
Re: Tony.
Look through history. Some of the most famous winters had cold & snow on both sides of the pond.
On 11 Jan 2015, C View wrote:
Watching Ski Sunday on BBC2 today and was surprised by the lack of snow in Austria and Switzerland
On 11 Jan 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Very good weekend for Piers.
Noticing the stopped clock mocking from some quarters. Perhaps someone could work out the odds of it being coincidence when he forecast it for this weekend four months out.
On 11 Jan 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well i gotta say i think my statement about usa and far east japan korea etc getting snow and cold when we get mild is very true .europe is strugging for snow for skking, scotland a no go event .the jet stream for me does control tbe weather and at present it is blowing a mild over us n europe..must say a well done to piers for this month so far and i will be looking to see this year if like is said the mia really starts 2015/2016.cant see us and usa having really cold n snow simultaneously but lets see if i get proven wrong .
On 11 Jan 2015, east side wrote:
I don't know if you routinely ignore my comments, but there is NO cold event in Europe this January.
Forget the ideas of snow in the UK!
There is nowhere near enough snow even in the alps to give decent ski atm, never mind zilch in unpredictable Scotland.
In fact the only place with semi decent ski are the Pyrenees and southern Spain.
Many ski resorts are closed or closing in France.
Wake up everyone! In your excitement about a bit of wind in the UK, you lost the big picture, that it is unsually WARM in Europe at present, and it's going to remain this way probably for the rest of January!
On 11 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
4 deg. Start yesterday at 8 a.m some showers and the odd gust, then a reasonable day with some nice sunshine, 3 deg. in the evening a sleety shower also.. 7 deg now at 15.03 pm and the wind is picking up again now, some light showers today and a grey day...
On 11 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL. I expect the reason why the MetO BBC have not YET claimed that the 8/9 Jan storm is evidence of Co2 ClimateChange is because firstly they have brainwashed the public to believe 'All extremes are Co2 Global Warming extremes' and for the regular public they don't have to say anything. Note of course our success has had ZERO PUBLICITY in main stream media. If they made a direct claim it might give us a chance to get in there. === AND What about this next storm? I would suggest that as is normal in these situations Standard Models cannot forecast well through or out of an R5 or R4 periods. We are now in R5 8-10 when they made that forecast so what they claim is OVERESTIMATE; It will not be that bad, 13-14th is NO specific solar factors. Nevertheless the worse part is indeed likely Thursday when we have an R3. THE NEXT BIG ONE is later and those who have the forecast for BI or Europe know when. Need I remind people of the AMAZING short offer on now to get you forewarned?!
On 11 Jan 2015, Rohan wrote:
@Richard Brown -LoL! Perhaps Piers stunning success with the 100 day ahead for the 8-12th convinced them eh?
On 11 Jan 2015, Rohan wrote:
Storm Rachel will affect the UK late on Wednesday and throughout Thursday. The area of most concern is the Southern flank of Rachel which will swing across the UK on Thursday. Severe gales and storm force winds will affect many parts of Ireland, England and Wales. The intensity of Rachel is enough to cause significant disruption to travel with trees and power lines expected to be be brought down in the winds on Thursday. If you have travel plans on Thursday then follow Rachel closely. This from Metcheck.
Piers, can we expect this to be even worse?
On 11 Jan 2015, Richard brown form Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Well, I was shocked last night that MOBeeb actually forecast a shift in the jet stream AND colder weather AND the storm coming on Wednesday, all without mentioning anything to do with climate change!
They did mention lots of uncertainties about the timing and track of the storm.....as usual.
What is also interesting is their longer term forecast.....now there is no mention of milder than average temps when mentioning alternate mild and cold spells.
What is going at the MetOffice? Have they secretly bought Piers winter forecast and are adjusting the forecasts to something more in line with reality?
On 11 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PAUL: to that list you can add Syria, Israel and Saudia- Arabia. Scant mention of that in the Paul Hudson blog, no doubt!
On 11 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
About 5cm of snow overnight, but now milder with light rain and a slow thaw from about 2hrs ago. Looks like an interesting week ahead.
On 11 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Currently (10AM) 6C with -0.6C windchill at 8BF NW wind. Intense large hail with 9BF wind gusts. Most intense wind measured at Hoek van Holland (Zuid-Holland province) and our area (Lauwersmeer/Schiermonnikoog island), strongest wind gust our area at 95km/hr. Sun peeking out once in a while, generally overcast. Temperatures a good 5-6C colder than yesterday.
On 11 Jan 2015, Rohan wrote:
Metcheck have issued an advanced weather warning for the entire country for severe gales and heavy rain from Wednesday 15:00 to Thursday 18:00. Better info than the MoBeeb at least.
On 10 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Pretty windy from the west this morning, 4˚C at 7.30 and - amazingly - 10˚ overnight as indicated by my min/max thermometer. I was told by my wife that overnight the wind was actually making the house timbers creak and moan, I slept blissfully through that. After 8.30 we started having snow showers and before every shower the wind whipped up to gale force. We had planned on going up to Turriff but decided against it as the forecast there was for snow, and our local rag was warning us today of snow and more storms to come. In the afternoon the wind abated, it only got to 3˚ with quite a bit of sun, 0˚ by 9.30pm, clear sky, calm and frosty. MO forecasts some snow for early Sunday, we’ll see. Again, we’ve been spared the worst, Shetland having storm force winds. Steve D, I like the spot on image of the dart being thrown 4 months ago, interesting time/space concept :-)
On 10 Jan 2015, Stu N wrote:
Continued from my previous comment - I should also note that although at sea level pressure (and a good way up the atmosphere too) a large majority of CO2 (or other greenhouse gas) molecules will COLLIDE with another molecule before they get a chance to EMIT energy in the form of a photon, there are a large number that gain energy via COLLISION rather than ABSORPTION, in the reverse of the process I described in my previous post. Most will collide again before emitting, but some manage to emit.
Note that only greenhouse gases have the necessary bonds between atoms to absorb/emit infrared energy. Diatomic oxygen/nitrogen are transparent to IR. These molecules can only lose energy by collision, and the gas as a whole can only radiate energy when it is transferred to GHGs, be it by radiation or collision, and the GHGs are able to emit photons.
On 10 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Russ - thanks for your Q: "So when the gas molecules bump into each other, how is the heat energy transferred and do the molecules end up with an equal share, and in what state is the heat energy while it sits inside the gas molecule? What prevents the heat energy from escaping the molecule by radiation?"
The energy transferred is kinetic energy, which when averaged out over all the molecules is the thermal energy (i.e. temperature) of the gas. Once absorbed the energy is contained in the bonds between atoms. Collisions disrupt the vibrating bonds (simplified - not all absorption is vibrational) so no photon is emitted. There's a short relaxation time, about 10 microseconds, before excited CO2 emits energy, and at sea level it's very likely to collide before emitting (one collision every 30 nanoseconds or so!).
Not all molecules get an equal energy share - it depends on the relative masses/speeds/directions involved in the collision (as Steve said - good snooker analogy!).
On 10 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Warm temps of nearly 12C today, our area (Lauwersmeer) some of the strongest wind in the country, I was right about the 9BF! Calming down little by little now (22:30PM) but loads of damage all through the country. At Den Helder the radar installation was blown off the lighthouse http://www.rtvnh.nl/nieuws/157592/radar-waait-van-vuurtoren-den-helder# and trees were blown over, falling on cars and houses.
On 10 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
heavy snow here at 21-30hrs Sat night. looks like more on and off for most of the next week. Is this winter starting?
On 10 Jan 2015, Paul wrote:
Snow has been falling in some pretty unusual places recently Northern Africa, Greek Islands, mountains in Vietnam and even Florida but no snow has fallen in Lowestoft since I believe April 2013. A result of the extreme jet stream age.
On 10 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Hi all - not read this page for a few days so please excuse the lack of reply. Bspin - haha, you certainly come across as a balanced and thoughtful individual. As you asked a semi-coherent question, I'll answer it. You asked: "Now having an Inquiring mind could you please tell me how much energy a CO2 molecule can store as 'Heat' before disintegration, and at what Frequency, 'Is' the so called 'Long Wave Radiation' that is supposed to 'Heat' it."
It's easier to start at the end: CO2 can absorb several different wavelengths (atmospheric physicists generally work in wavelength, not frequency). The three main absorption bands are around 3, 4-5 and 13-14 microns - see http://tinyurl.com/mo27bhj (link is wikipedia, original source NASA). IIRC, a molecule can only absorb one photon worth of energy at a time and has to return to ground state before absorbing more. It wont 'disintegrate', whatever that means. It returns to ground state either by emission or by colliding with another molecul
On 10 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
4 deg. At 8 a.m a marked drop in temp & breezy with a couple of showers to begin, not sure what we reached in temp today as forgot to go look earlier, 3 deg now at 18.22 pm and I'm sure we just had a sleety shower, still the odd gust later this aft. But a nice cool day to be out & some lovely blue sky and sun for a time..
On 10 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR ALL GREAT COMMS and it's nice to see there is more than snow in many minds for the meaning of winter! DONT FORGET - SEE HOME PAGE - NEW EXTRA OFFERS FROM TODAY 10th afternoon WITH LOADS 2/3OFF to get more on board in these interesting times. The offer includes extensions to existing subs which will be extended by new subs.
On 10 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorks wrote:
Its snow we want in my neck of the woods!!!!!! And loads of it!! Blizzards, snow drifts, the whole works!!
On 10 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Well. Hats off to you Piers. You've nailed it again like so many times before. The jet stream over the UK, the R5 period, the throwing of a dart from 4 months away and hitting the bullseye - now THAT takes skill! Some potential for wintry weather even down to lower levels in the South next week as the Azores High threatens to link up with the Greenland High and give us a more N/NW'ly influence that constant oscillations between SW & NW'lies. Ireland should see some decent snowfall before then though, not to mention Scotland of course who have taken the brunt of this weeks storms. More to come next week...
On 10 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
No mention fro the MOBeeb about next Wednesdays potential storm hitting the country. Sorry, my mistake, its more than 3 days away so they wont have seen it yet.
On 10 Jan 2015, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
What was it the Met were telling us on Tuesday? Something about gales and rain on Wednesday night and a possible repeat on Saturday. Then on Wednesday, they said that the gales would be a storm but would hit Thursday night, with a repeat Friday and possibly into Saturday. It was very windy Thursday night but nothing to write home about. Then of course Friday was scary with loads of tree debris all over the roads, signs torn down, all manner of 'things' like items of garden furniture and the inevitable wheelie bins, strewn across both paths and roads. Our next door neighbour has a very sheltered garden, with lots of dwarf conifers and potted-plants, and everything which 'was' upright or not nailed down is on it's side this morning. But warm? Last night, even though we were nearly blown off our feet a couple of times, was so incredibly warm. Saves on the heating bill, plus the global warming fraternity will be jumping for joy because we'll be using less fossil (?) fuels...
On 10 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
temporary sleet blizzards here at 140m and plenty of snow higher up, but can't really see it being a good ski-ing weekend with the wind as strong as it is. Got my first cold weather payment of the winter, this comparing to 9 in 2010/11. Perhaps we could use these as a calibration of winter severity and call them OGWI ---old gits weather index !
On 10 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Basically it has been storming here since Wednesday (unpredicted by Dutch KNMI !!) as we heard the wind howling that night and the local roads were strewn with branches the morning after. Also, details supplied by (even local) weather stations do NOT represent actual conditions here! Currently we're 'supposed' to have a 7BF wind but I'm guessing it's more like 8, and oftentimes as high as 9BF. A "Total Eclipse of the Truth" is being applied to more and more information - not just weather - to lull all of us into a sense of complacency! Unfortunately that results into me having a sadly distrusting mind. BTW, CHAPEAU PIERS for doing what you do best: warning people about dangerous weather, whereas so-called official weather institutes leave you guessing until the last moment!
On 09 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A wild night with powerful W’ly gale, intensifying around 7am and then suddenly dropping off after 10. 3˚C at 7.30, max 5˚ and 3˚ again by 9.30pm. Many bridges were closed, there were no trains until at least 10 am, lots of power failures in the West, fallen trees etc, we got off lightly. Some sunny cloud breaks in the morning but cloding over for the afternoon. MO were warning yesterday that there would be another storm on Saturday, yellow wind warning this morning but tonight they give a snow & ice yellow warning, we’ll know tomorrow night whether they’ve over- or underestimated that. In any case, this R5 period can be chalked up as one of Piers’ successes.
On 09 Jan 2015, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
My, how quickly sentiment changes. Only two weeks ago this message board was slating WA for their snow predictions. Not only did WA forecast this strong wind but the positioning of the Lows has been forecast correctly. Where's Bob Meyrick?
On 09 Jan 2015, Asim wrote:
Winter has been really mild this time . Are we not getting snow? What about February, just stormy here in se England.
On 09 Jan 2015, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
113mph gusts and thousands without power? So at what point do the Met Orangutans give out a red warning?, when there's a flippin great tornado about to destroy the houses of parliament? Unbelievable. I can confirm that in Waltham Abbey and Harlow today it was a beautiful sunny, warm day, very spring-like. Hit cloud and the wind picked up around Luton circa 3pm. Oop norf it's like a hurricane.....and has anyone looked at sat24 this afternoon? That is one exceptional storm, very strange, NO CENTRE, more like a derecho without the tornado's and hail...how strange!! I guess here in the UK we only get baby derecho's, like we get baby tornado's. I'd wait a few years until solar minimum; I believe the tornado's and storms and such like will become far more powerful by then....watch out USA!
On 09 Jan 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Storms in Scotland.That was OUTSTANDING FORECASTING PIERS!!! Windy in South as well and i subscribed to his all winter forecasts and can vouch that Piers forcasted that.Also noticed that the U.K MetO everynight leading up to the storm Upgraded the wind speed.Wait for it folks!!! BBC will say this is further evidence of man made climate change
On 09 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
8 deg. start and very calm dry start, 13 now @ 13.40 and the wind has been blowing n gusting through here for the last hr or so could hardly shut the door at one point, the air is tropical and would be lovely if you were not blown around lol! Tiles rattling with the gusts, yellow wind warning for all of Ireland, looking at the pics on front page this is only a tickle compared to what others have had, well forecasted Piers! hats off to you ;-)
On 09 Jan 2015, Dawn Orkney (subscriber) wrote:
I've been wondering about snow in the UK after this storm has tracked through as well Kenneth. Still looking like Scotland will get some sat/sun and various interludes including England through next week. Anyone else tracking the same?
On 09 Jan 2015, danny wrote:
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE MAINMAN, PIERS CORBYN
WHO AS ONLY GONE AND DONE IT AGAIN,
A QUICK MESSAGE TO THE BBC MET OFFICE ABOUT LONG RANGE FORECASTING AND HOW IT CAN ONLY BE PREDICTED
FROM A FEW DAYS OUT, ( REALLY ) WELL HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THIS STORM THAT HAS BATTERED THE NORTH AND NORTH SCOTLAND, THAT PIERS FORECAST WOULD HAPPEN
AND PREDICTED THIS STORM 120 DAYS AGO TO THE DAY.
IF WE LIVED IN A FAIR AND HONEST SOCIETY AND NOT UNDER
THE EVIL OF CORRUPTION OF COMMON PURPOSE AND FALSIFIED DATA, THEN PIERS MIGHT BE ON EVERY FRONT
PAGE OF EVERY NEWS PAPER BEING CONGRATULATED FOR HIS SKILLS, UNFORTUNATELY WE DONT.
I WOULD JUST LIKE TO ADD THAT I AM PROUD TO POST MY
COMMENTS IN WHAT I WOULD CALL, THE GOOD CAMP.
WELL DONE PIERS YOU DESERVE IT.
NOW ITS ON WITH MY RABBIT CASSEROLE.
BEST WISHES FROM danny AND HIS LURCHER DOGS
On 09 Jan 2015, Kenneth Griffle wrote:
Piers and weather action team - what is going on with all the snow forecasts and charts for next week? They have gone berserk!
On 09 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
LOL, Carol Kirkwood acting chuffed about the storm...quote.... 'we' have been forecasting for last 3 days.....deary me! What next? Well if its beyond this weekend they can't tell us...
On 09 Jan 2015, Dawn Orkney (subscriber) wrote:
All schools are suspended today in Orkney as are bus services and a majority of ferry crossings. Police are advising not to travel as there is are still a lot of objects flying about with a trailer blocking the road to Kirkwall airport. Sustained windspeeds of 60mph gusting into the 90mph region was recorded overnight at Kirkwall airport. Temps currently at around 6degC with a barometer reading of 986 hPa. The Northern Isles are still in for a rough few days ahead.
On 09 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Congratulations on your again outstanding success for the storm Piers from very long range. BBC News reported 113mph max gust in Stornaway overnight aswell as almost 70,000 homes without power. Bullseye!
On 09 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Dutch KNMI issues Code Yellow for storm, noodweercentrale.nl issues Code Red. Currently nearly 9C with windchill of 3.6C, wind varying between SW 8-9BF with gusts already up to 100km/hr. Conditions tomorrow might be even more severe due to increased temperatures over land colliding with colder sea temperatures. Coastal areas (meaning us!) may be in for a whopper! Fortunately Piers' prediction of "gale damage" for this time period meant we were able to take precautions well in advance ;-)
On 08 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, rising to 4˚ max, splendid sunny day with continuous stiff W’ly breeze, feeling much colder but also drier than yesterday, 1˚ by 9pm. However, when I went out again at 10.30, temps had risen to 3˚ again, the wind had turned into the SW with the approaching Atlantic depression. MO giving a yellow wind warning overnight, on cue from Piers’ forecast and if we get the storm this weekend that they were talking about on the radio this morning, then Piers will have been bang on the nail from first indications back in September. Please anyone, can you tell me who can match that, mmm…?
On 08 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Orange wind warning for Donegal and Yellow here in Leinster and for Munster Cavan Connacht & Monaghan on Met Eireanne.
On 08 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
7 deg. @ 18.26 pm mild enough day a few showers but some dry periods and sun at times too, another mild night tonight. Wind decreased yesterday some very hefty showers made for some great puddles! Wind getting up again a bit now and more rain..Some great comments below and I'm not just being pro Piers I am just impressed how he pin points so many weather events..amazing stuff!
On 08 Jan 2015, east side wrote:
Fat chance of heavy snow in the UK in January, it will be only stormy, warm and damp much as per 2013.
Here in Ural/Moscow we just went through the coldest few days of the year -35/-22C, but this didn't even get into France or Germany properly.
It's only back up from here on, so fgrget winter 2014-5 as an exceptional cold event.
It hasn't happened and won't this year.
On 08 Jan 2015, Dawn (occasional subscriber) wrote:
Battening down the hatches in the Northern Isles (Orkney)....can anyone confirm if tomorrows storm (friday 9th Jan) will be followed by snow! Today is gusty with squally sleet and hail showers temps around 5degC but feeling very much colder. MetO isn't predicting snow but looks like a band of it might be moving in from the north west during sat/sun!
On 08 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
First blobs of sleet in the showers here at 1100 hrs at 140metres in Blair Atholl, Perthshire. Norwegian MO going for a cooler spell from the 15th with the possibility of an easterly element in the wind direction from the 17th, as opposed to the mainly westerly components in the winter so far.
On 08 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
as documented on these blogs for my location i usually found wa forecasts would get at least 5 out of 8 right or close.ie 60%. Meto 5 days was so bad i gave up recording their ratio. As for clocks then meto only have 1 forecast for long range 'warmer than average' so one day they will be right. All their other forecasts are just their usual 'close to average with a 20% chance it might not be'. THE curious thing is the attacks on WA by those with a WORSE record and the bbc blocks to any narrative other than the warming one which they present without any critical alternative voice. Its not just WA. Other amateurs had documented correct long range forecasts such as the one for last winter which one predicted months ahead from normal meteorological reasoning ie no supercomputer. Yet they are called the cranks while those with rubbish records are called experts WA is not right all the time but the others are worse. So its rational to choose the better over the worse imo
On 08 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
This upcoming storm, what folk have to realise is this. Its main ferocity is for Scotland and NI. Now way back in September Piers warned of ferocious low crossing Scotland 8-12 Jan. I see elsewhere on other sites folk say a clock is right twice a day. That is poppycock. Ferocious low crossing Scotland 8-12. Not early Jan or vicinity of UK maybe a strong depression......NO...Feroicious low crossing Scotland. It is absolutely pinpoint. Yes SLAT is updating periodically as Piers himself identifies errors or extra developments not quite seen by previous SLAT that put more noise into a forecast verification....but this is one of many 'startling' hits. Get ready folks as probably we re entering the 'real' half of winter.
On 08 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
The way i see it, im interested in the weather thats why i take forecasts. With the deals at the moment, a six month 30 day sub costs £1.50 a week. This month seems very good so far ,December not so much.Cant wait to see if Feb/ March have a sting in the tail!
On 08 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
I agree with some other comments in regards to language used. The Met Office seem to underestimate weather extremes but Piers can unfortunately sound OTT. I understand he wants to warn people of what's potentially coming, however he can loose credibility with words like "snowmaggedon" As for accuracy it is not on to question this. To forecast storms from months ahead for specific dates and get the positions of highs and lows correct is groundbreaking.
On 07 Jan 2015, Gazza wrote:
I really could do with mild, quiet and sunny weather around Gatwick on Sunday - I am flying to Cape Town and my last two trip out there were cancelled because of snow - not again please !!!
On 07 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Frost all gone this morning, what with 5˚C at 7.30, stiff SW wind all day, got to 9˚ in shelter of the wind nevertheless, dry & overcast morning, drizzle & occasional rain in the afternoon, clearer sky again by evening, 5˚ by 9.30pm. == Re forecast accuarcy: considerning that Piers divides B+I into 3-4 areas per weather period it is unreasonable to expect that every spot of a particular area will have exactly the type of weather described. Considering also that major changes are predicted weeks or months ahead and often - but not always - do occur on time +/- 1 day to expect that he gets it right every time is also unreasonable. I agree with Steve D though that some of Piers’ language could be slightly less steep, in spite of the fact that it’s a propaganda war out there. But I have a feeling he also enjoys that :-)
On 07 Jan 2015, C View wrote:
I am a bit confused. Solar max was declared some months back but sunspot number and SFU seem to me to be still pretty high. is it possible solar max was declared prematurely??
On 07 Jan 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Lord haw haw calling at the BBC again with
More 'Modelling Work' reports
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30709211
to stop global warming
So many publicly funded reporting staff
So much gathered data & reports
BUT they missed the ones showing there has not been any ave rise in surface temps for nearly two decades
On 07 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
KATY: there wiill be snow periodically on high ground in Scotland especially( including blizzards), but nothing like a blocking High winter as in 2008-2011.
In terms of the general discussion Piers is not there to give us the weather we want, but he tries to tell us the truth about what we might get in the longer projection. Yes his predictions don't always come right but on balance they are well in the ballpark and frequently well within the 18 yard box. The Mobeeb can't even get past the turnstiles.
On 07 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Alert......stratospheric warming of pretty impressive ratio going on right now...not a forecast...a happening. Its not classed as a major SSW but a minor one. But that's the start of it.....bang on cue as Piers has forecast in his SSW trial. Let's see where we go from here. There may be trouble ahead...
On 07 Jan 2015, Katy wrote:
Piers is this right? Some are now saying there is snow potential from this storm... I thought you said mild on your homepage?!?! Always follow your work and more often than not you are spot on from far ahead. Is this the cold arriving earlier? Either way you've predicted the storm spot on, but is there a chance of snow from it now? Thanks
On 07 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Part 3 - WIth regards to comments about how the weather starts in the USA then comes over here - yes and no. If you imagine the polar vortext swinging down over the USA then returning northwards over the expanse of water that is the North Atlantic Ocean then plunging down again over Eastern Europe / W Russia, this is a ripple pattern that rarely benefits the UK as we are right on the edge of the returning vortex pattern. I'm barely an amateur forecaster so can only imagine how difficult it is to pinpoint the exact path of such a natural phenomenon. Other sources say our winters will get progressively colder as we approach 2020, with some saying the MIA will last until 2055, if not longer. Considering I was born in the summer of 1976, such a prospect upsets me slightly...
On 07 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
Part 2 - The review is PURELY for SE England and therefore not an accurate representation for the whole UK. If anyone elsewhere in the UK or Ireland keeps their own 30d ahead forecasts and can keeps their own records they can do the same comparison in very little time. I would heartily recommend it as Piers' has taken much 'stick' for the lack of snow in Southern England last month, whereas for those in the Midlands and northwards, they were over the Moon with his accuracy I'd imagine? Another point of note - we're a tiny collection of islands at the precipice of the North Atlantic ocean, not some massive expanse of land like the USA which has far greater success rates (from what I have observed). That makes it far more difficult to make weather predictions, but my money is still on Piers because he is onto something without a £100m supercomputer or bias media promoting him on a daily basis. Let's get behind him people, remember this is still a work in progress!
On 07 Jan 2015, Steve D wrote:
I've just made a quick cursory look at Piers monthly (30d) forecasts for the last year. As I haven't time to give a detailed review (although I'd like to), here are my findings; Jan '14 - Very poor accuracy, Feb '14 - Poor, Mar '14 - Average, Apr '14 - OK, May/June/July '14 - Excellent, Aug '14 - Accurate start/end of month, poor after ex-Bertha hit the UK, Sep '14 - V good, Oct '14 - Poor after ex-Gonzalo hit the UK, Nov '14 - Good/very good, Dec '14 - Good start/end, poor middle-section ("Germany stole our snow"). So, two main trends of note - firstly the SLAT does not yet appear to be handling ex-hurrianes at all well during summer/autumn months, secondly that the accuracy tends to be far better during spring/summer months than autumn/winter when extreme weather occurs. This is not an attack on Piers but rather an honest review. He does nail the timing of extreme events from months out year in, year out, but maybe the sensational terms such as "snowmaggedon" need to be watered down.
On 07 Jan 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
yes i understand that michael but if u look back a lot of opposites appear before xmas wa s freezing usa pretty mild uk not lot of snow now freezing usa mild wet n windy again here ...every year ive looked at it and it really does happen just wondered why thats all
On 07 Jan 2015, Michael wrote:
Rony, Tony - Piers said once on Paul Hudon's radio program that the weather starts in the US, I completely get that comment but it's entirely possible for it to be cold on both sides of the pond.
On 07 Jan 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well great start to the forecast so far piers credit where due as i do also say when i feel incorrct.really strange weather at present here in corby ,1 minute lovely like yesterday and really mild today back to cold.must b a nightmare trying to forecast and i wonder if i am correct in thinking the uk must be 1 of the hardest areas in the world to foecast ???........yes RON i do really believe in that statement.......ive followed it so many times and 90% of the time it is that way.......must be the jet stream anyone of u boffins out there care to help me out >???
On 07 Jan 2015, Matt (subscirber) wrote:
People have this tendency to take sides and form opinions rather than show an interest in discovering the truth. I did my analysis (see themaverickman.com) to cut through the Piers Is Great / Piers Is Crap bullshit and try to establish if WA really has something going for it or not. It does. For the Bob Meyricks of this world, consider the 20-24 September 2012 when Piers said an area of low pressure would 'torpedo' in from the Atlantic and it did exactly as predicted. You'd be more likely to win the lottery than forecast this correctly. The 'Atlantic Oscillation' in Sep13 when an area of low pressure stayed put for a week was forecast exactly by Piers from over a month ahead. Whatever errors and inaccuracies Mr Meyrick could point to you can't take these astonishing predictions away from WA. There is something to it no matter what the detractors say. Whether it follows that Piers is also right about Co2 is another matter.....
On 07 Jan 2015, Barbara wrote:
Has been very breezy here on the north coast NI overnight, still gusty, although it does seem to be easing somewhat, it was 37kph with gusts 66kph overnight, now 25kph with gusts of 55kph, keep safe everyone, especially if it's going to get worse!
On 07 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
TONY: you might have a point there and it also seems to coincide with cold spells in the Balkans and Middle East.
On 07 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Temp. On the rise again overnight 9 deg. Now at 9 a.m feels colder with the wind sw 52 kph at present, grey dull rainy stormy sounding ole day with high humidity. As I turn the page over on the forecast I see Piers has this one nailed in detail, spot on for a long range forecast!
On 07 Jan 2015, Peter Newsham wrote:
Hey bob give it a rest mate' piers and a number of other independent forecasters I follow always show the met office up for accuracy. The met have only contributed to the NHs crisis by not paying attention to their forecasts as it wasn't just mild was it?? This link sums it up good and piers and co should get a % of this wasted money
http://newsthump.com/2014/10/28/met-office-100m-supercomputer-to-confirm-weather-is-shit/
On 06 Jan 2015, Bob Meyrick wrote:
"...one must ask what is your point other than negative innuendo." Not sure what a negative innuendo is, but I look forward to seeing for myself how accurate the forecasts are.
On 06 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Forecast is really good so far this Month. Models still can't pin down the storms for this weekend, although as I mentioned in earlier post they did pick the trend up a few days ago. i do not have Feb forecast but will be purchasing it. My own thoughts are that Winter will truly arrive to the UK then and possibly last into March.
On 06 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, just as we left it last night. However, when the cold front of the low that brought us the mildness gave us rain from 9 - 11.30 the temperature dropped very quickly to 3˚, 2˚ by 5pm, 0˚by 9pm under a clear sky, good frost. Winds mostly WSW today.
On 06 Jan 2015, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Forecast for next 4 days matches Met Office prediction perfectly. Those who doubt WA need to consider that there are hundreds of possible weather scenarios for any given day and it could not be guessed correctly more than once in several years probably.
On 06 Jan 2015, Josh wrote:
Looks to be another depressing warm and wet winter again then! Might have to move to America for the cold.
On 06 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Very cold christmas for orthodox russians
http://rt.com/news/220235-orthodox-christians-celebrate-christmas/
On 06 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max 7 deg. Reached here today some light spots of rain almost hail this morning followed by some sun & partly cloudy with heavy cloud in the distance, rain again this aft. 6 deg. now at 16.31 pm with a colder feel this evening than of late.. Looks to get messy again inline with Piers forecast and has been going well this month. Great idea btw I think it's about time the Met O compiled a forecast archive so they too can be as open as Piers, plus everyone gets to see how accurate the forecasts they are paying for are as well as the met seeing where they could improve their technique also at times, maybe someone independent like an examiner of forecasts could also check their data against their own to provide accuracy for proper overall documented proof history of weather..would have to get some more weather stations up and running again though but maybe they could use wind turbines and solar to power it all....lol.... just a thought!..
On 06 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
yes there is no meto archive of past forecasts nor do they give a statistical analysis of their prediction/actual ratio. As someone who has done one on their forecast i probably know the reason why they don't do it. The reason being its terrible. This month for WA is looking good with the models and meto confirming so far what WA predicted weeks ago. The attacks on science the officaldom does not want people to know are not just in climate science. Graham Hancock latest talk describes with pictures how new scientist magazine among others viciously fought his suggestions for a different narrative of human history from the Younger Dryas flooding onwards for decades .He shows a recent front cover of New Scientist that then agrees with his narrative which he says he will frame. Anyone interested in the talk its called ‘Magicians of the Gods’, snapshots of a work in progress https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcPgIphDWGY
On 06 Jan 2015, @piers_corbyn WA forecaster wrote:
PAST FORECASTS BOB M Archive hasn't been loaded recently purely as an oversight too much else to do, but one must ask what is your point other than negative innuendo. PAST WEATHER is what you need. All subscribers - and unless you use another name it appears you are not - have all past forecasts in their box for all services they subscribe to and so can check anything. So if you want to know now just subscribe, otherwise wait. You might care to ask MetO or all sorts of others to make available their last 5 years or 10 years of forecasts in an easy to find public archive. LOL!
On 06 Jan 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well for what ive noticed is that whenever the usa has cold snow etc uk is mild can anyone explain why this is ??? if u look back its nearly all the time and the addage of what america gets we have after is also not true .is it due to the jet stream ??? or another force .
On 06 Jan 2015, Bob Meyrick wrote:
" Asssessmeent of any forecast must be in terms of final real weather." When will the forecasts for September, October, November and December 2014 be added to the archive so they can be compared with the real weather?
On 06 Jan 2015, Alister wrote:
It's all QED, read up on Feynmann. The collisions of little 'balls' suggests Stu was referring to Brownian motion. That's fine but the underlying physics is the absorbance and emission of EM (specifically infra red energy). Given that water vapour is (a) considerably more abundant and (b) absorbs a wider range of the infra red spectrum (than CO2) would suggest its presence has a greater effect. The argument is whether the modest increase in CO2 has the greatest influence on temperature variation or if other variables account for it. Alarmists have not demonstrated that the CO2 or CH4 attributed to human activity accounts for all the recorded increase in CO2, nor does 18 years of temperature records tally with the linear increase in CO2. At the very least, other mechanisms must be influencing the overall system. It would be nice if contributors kept their posts informative and not make personal attacks.
On 05 Jan 2015, Bspin wrote:
Russ,
I think 'Stu' Is just Parroting the things he or she has been taught,now If he or she should embark on a Phd it should be on 'Malfeasance of Magnitude'.I would gladly offer my assistance by offering to Fart in a room at night and one in daylight.Now with all the high tec measuring devices the 'Masters' of Climastrology should be able to tell us how much the Methane increased the air temperature between daytime and nightime.
Should we ban Farting in daylight to avert Globull Warming?
This is a definitely a Phd program for some Uni somewhere
On 05 Jan 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
The BBC's hottest report
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30683339
On 05 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
6.0 quake in the South Island of NZ this morning http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/64684438/geonet-revises-canterbury-quake--its-on-the-west-coast
On 05 Jan 2015, Steve (sub) wrote:
Good man Russ! You are like me - someone who asks the question "but why" when something is explained to us. Thats the only way we will advance our knowledge - beneath the surface.
As far as gas and molecules I THINK (but expect to be corrected) it is best imagined like this - an area of hot gas is like a snooker table with all the balls (molecules) rushing around colliding energetically. A cold gas area is like another table with slow moving balls just grazing each other. Introduce fast balls (sorry!) to slow ones and they will collide and speed up the slow ones while losing some speed doing it et voila! heat (energy or speed) transfer. If that ain't it please help Dr Piers or anyone else very clever because I too want to know.
On 05 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 & rising to 7˚, feeling really mild under a mostly cloudy sky, no rain though until after 8pm and then very light, still 7˚ at 9pm. WSW’ly breeze most of the day. Mild weather on cue as per Piers’ 30d forecast.
On 05 Jan 2015, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Stu...... I'm interested in the bumping into thing you mentioned too. So when the gas molecules bump into each other, how is the heat energy transferred and do the molecules end up with an equal share, and in what state is the heat energy while it sits inside the gas molecule? What prevents the heat energy from escaping the molecule by radiation?
On 05 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Basically Alistair when the AO is negative there is a greater chance of high pressure over the polar regions, which allows the very cold air to get into North West Europe. This can cause what is called blocking, where the Atlantic lows are deflected away from UK or bump into the cold air and give snow. In your area you really want a North/North East wind to deliver decent snow this time of year. SSW is not necessary to get cold and snow to uk, it just helps.
On 05 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A mild 10 deg. now at 19.27 pm with a ssw breeze and light drizzle still as for most of the day, nice grey day :)
On 05 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Two white roses still in bloom, flocks of birds waiting in line to feed from the (special) peanut butter, an extremely daring falcon which comes swooping over and through the garden at least every other day looking for a tasty tidbit, cold days and cold nights per Piers' forecast and loads of Christmas decorations to be tidied up tomorrow, but it still feels like Autumn. A wet, bone chilling cold which I would gleefully swap for crisp days with the sun reflecting off heaps of snow. Alas. BTW, looks like we're in for some stormy weather on Saturday. http://t.co/JZ22W80Rqf
On 05 Jan 2015, Alistair wrote:
Just seen a comment on another site claiming that The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is going strongly negative.
What could this mean for the Uk and from a selfish point of view, the east side of Yorkshire?.
On 05 Jan 2015, Paul wrote:
From what I've heard from forecasts is the stratospheric warming over the poles appears to be fizzling out so no persistent blocking highs unless it suddenly ramps up again.It appears the weather for the foreseeable future will be dominated by Atlantic depressions with the occasional brief cold spell that will give significant snow over the usual areas like the highlands of Scotland and in parts of northern Britain and frosts over most of the UK.
On 05 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Garry Mulherne, Eire: Doesn't look like it Garry, but a cooler spell looks likely 12-16th January, but nothing like 2008-2011 winters
On 05 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Although very hot in some areas of NZ today I'm pleased to say (sorry Gill 1066!) that it only reached 25 deg, not 28. Met Service website still shows a high of 28 for Motueka but I took the temperature at 2pm and 3pm and it did not go above 25. We were lucky to have a sea breeze too which cooled things slightly.
On 04 Jan 2015, Garry Mulherne wrote:
Is a big freeze coming to Eire or not? Mirror saying ssw troposphere vortex but not from peerrs or wa http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-arctic-conditions-bring-4917588
On 04 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, clear start & not a breath of wind, another gloriously sunny day, max temp 3˚ with a light NW - W’ly breeze by midday, 1˚ by 10pm under a clear sky, breeze turning into the SW and feeling somewhat less cold. Warmer temps forecast for tomorrow, not surprisingly, given the position of the Azores High and the Atlantic Lows, reflecting Piers’ Euro Pressure forecast maps pretty exactly. Regarding 1-4 Jan period, we here didn’t get the snow forecast in the 30d fc but the cold was almost bang on cue, just a day late.
On 04 Jan 2015, Bspin wrote:
Hi Stu,
Nice to know we have a' Master of Meteorology' visiting this Blog.I noticed you mentioned 'Green House Gases'and one in particular was CO2 where you explained how a CO2 molecule 'Absorbed' longwave radiation and then released the energy into surounding molecules by 'Bumping' into them.
Now having an Inquiring mind could you please tell me how much energy a CO2 molecule can store as 'Heat' before disintegration, and at what Frequency, 'Is' the so called 'Long Wave Radiation' that is supposed to 'Heat' it.
If i placed a bottle of beer in the sunlight would it turn into a mini Nuclear Reactor? Could I use CO2 as a heating device for my home by pumping CO2 through double glazing panes of glass?Eureka! CO2 solar panels.
On 04 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Further to Alistair's comm from Ian F, UKMO STATEMENT:
"(As of 1400 Z on Sunday 04th January 2015): The Met Office have new data that suggests that a major sudden stratospheric warming is not likely to occur in the foreseeable future. Monthly and seasonal probabilistic forecasting models used by the Met Office have shown no sign of any ‘major’ stratospheric warming events since as far back as 27th December. The model ouput of other reputable forecasting organisations is also in agreement with the Met Office model trends. The latest runs of these models all show that the decline in strength of the jet stream is about to stop and will be followed by a recovery of the polar vortex strength (and hence polar night jet) to near-normal conditions over the next week or two. This makes recent observations of a slight warming trend in the stratosphere a ‘minor’ SSW (i.e. temporary, and of only minor significance to weather conditions lower down in the atmosphere)."
On 04 Jan 2015, Katy wrote:
No ssw say met office - who is right piers? https://mobile.twitter.com/fergieweather/status/551828213744566272
On 04 Jan 2015, Alistair wrote:
News from IF re latest UK Met:
Taken from the net weather site...
fergieweather
New @metoffice data indicates no major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is likely to occur "in the forseeable future".
Someone or some people are going to get their predictions wrong on this one, personally I'm hoping its the met that are going to be the ones that are are wrong, it wont be the first time.
On 04 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
GEFS and GFS now picking up on stormy spell at the end of this week. CFS showing possible cold plunge for end of Jan.
On 04 Jan 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Lorraine Lister.......... Sooooooooooooo jealous!
On 04 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Shaun, the danger is confusing weather with climate, i visit ice age now, but really its just a vehicle to sell his books ( i admit i bought one). The problem as it so often is, is money. People selling books, scientists salaries, publications advertising revenue all conspire to skew the debate in there favour, and my particular hobby horse govt using it to tax us. The rich seem to always benefit, the landowners with their rent for windmills, and those who can afford new cars getting road tax for free just two examples.
I wanted a severe winter this year, i hoped it may have started a debate about energy and how useless wind power is, but alas they got away with it.I would vote for the party that said they would abolish the climate change act, but not one of the main parties would do it. Why? Because the elite profit from it, and we can rant as much as we like but they wont change while there is still swill in the trough. What we need is 3 or 4 severe winters to make them fear voters
On 04 Jan 2015, Joe wrote:
Have a look at gfs 06.00 run today 384 hours out !
On 04 Jan 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... as it was this year.
I like ICE AGE NOW website because it is a massively bias site I trust it to find all the snow and cold related stories because it is in their interest to, I never said they were reputable or reliable, I take everything there with a massive pinch of salt, I have seen some posts there that are so ignorant it is shocking, but I dont care what they have to say but what links they are providing, because with most posts they provide links to the actual news source from the country in mention because the problem is I can't find these stories on the BBC as I said, ICEAGENOW has some use in getting me strories that over years I simply couldn't get via the bias BBC.
On 04 Jan 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Stu the BBC are so bias it is incredible, in regards to many matters and not just the weather, they did cover UK snow I did say 90% of the time, but they can't lie about the UK snow as we are in the UK. I mean snow from around the world, it has been times when mid winter I am record cold and snow in the northern hemisphere while they talk about drought in summer in Australia which just happens to be normal conditions there just like everyone points out snow is usually early in scottish highland so not significant; this point of snow early in scottish highlands is true, it is normal but so is draught in the hot arid country of Australia and why bleat on about that and totally skip the snow and cold that at the time was pretty extreme for many countries.
Or when they do talk about the snow they make it sound normal, like the US lake effect incident this year if you believed the BBC was nothing unusual, part truth masking the actual truth, yes lake effect is normal but not so severel
On 04 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday 6 deg. @ 8.30 a.m ground quite soggy from rain overnight, a little drizzle and light wind in the morn. max 7 deg. felt cooler in the afternoon and evening and high humidity dropped, sky cleared in the early night and almost full moon and stars visable for a time, around 4/5 deg. overnight no frost here this morning but some fog, mix of cloudy and patchy cloud and 7 deg. Now at 9.15 a.m
On 04 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Conventional forecasters seeing a significant hit of cold weather coming in around the 15th.
On 04 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn - Follow On twitter! wrote:
2015 TEMPS, STU, YES there is a problem of actual measurement here. Firstly I would say below normal (world) for satellite (the one often graphed to show no warming for 18yrs). Secondly I would say also below 1981-2010 averages as at present defined for current (fraud) data as currently defined. HOWEVER I have no doubt 'adjustments' by computer programs writen by fraudsters will continue changing what would have otherwise been an outcome so I wouldnt trust what they say to be like with like. Also note they have REVERTED to calling 1961-90 'the norm' when actually that was left behnd 20yrs ago. They both like to say "The new normal has to be 1981-2010 because of Global warming it is warmer" but NOT use it; and "The accepted long term normal is 1961-1990" - because that was a significant real dip. Note the 30yr average is very dishonest and stupid and chosen because it can be manipulated to fullest effect in the 60 year cycle by choosing coldest half periods like 61-90 as 'normal'.
On 04 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The current R3 is bringing hot temps to NZ. It was 25 deg today but tomorrow's forecast is for 28 here. These higher temps are more typical of February than January but often occur now following high temps in Australia. As a matter of interest I looked to see what the R period was on Xmas Day 2012 when we had 30 deg ( a memorable day due to the extreme heat) and it was an R2.
On 04 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Piers you may be right about the meaning being lost if it wasn't originally said or written in English.
You said: "I will be very surprised if 2015 is not Below normal even on Warmist measures as defined now" - Do you mean globally, and do you mean below the latest average used (I think 1981-2010 is the reference period for all global series)?
I may hold you to that. My expectation would be that it will be above average globally, but not as much as 2014 was.
On 03 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Much colder again today: even thought the thermometer said 1˚C, the ground was frozen and remained so all day, exacerbated by the very chilly W wind that blew all day, good sunshine though. Max temp 3˚ but felt much colder, down to -1˚ by 10pm under a clear sky. Not complaining though, this is how winter is supposed to be. == Craig, re more snow at Easter than Christmas: I remember 3 years in a row in the late 70s when it snowed heavily on 21st March! Ok, in Scotland that isn’t sosurprising but still. I’m sure I’ve trotted this line out before: ‘as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens’. The show isn’t over till it is.
On 03 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:
STU etc re Abdusamatov. What is attributed to him is clearly nonsense and you only need the essence of kinetic theory to show so - which is A Level physics at most. However i suspect it is some sort of journalistic representation for the 'layperson' LOL of something he said in another language. When I have read English translations of Russian newspapers, weather etc they often are close to gobbldigook. One has to wonder also what happens when what we say is translated into russian - or meybe it is OK that way. I have noticed that Russian and Chinese reports in Englaish are clearly mostly NOT done by people who have a good knowledge of Englsih which is daft because it would not take much to have stuff checked by someone with englsh as a first langouage. INIT?
On 03 Jan 2015, brandon wrote:
Just finished watching Britain's wildest weather 2014 really interesting on how we had all that thunder a strike every two seconds the floods the coastal waves taking the rail tracks apart pretty extreme events happened they say will these events occur often? And what will become of our weather for the future? And it puts the question in my head will Britain get extreme snowy weather in early 2015 that will make the TV this year? And currently wondering when we can expect our next extreme weather event hopefully snow and just to point out they said our planets getting warmer I laughed at that bit didn't realise comedy had a part in this!
On 03 Jan 2015, Lorraine wrote:
https://www.facebook.com/DailyMail/posts/853942144665535
I hope you might be able to open this but mail online has an interesting article on a massive coronal hole on the Suns south pole
On 03 Jan 2015, Richard Brown wrote:
Just to clarify a previous post of mine: when the vast majority of met office weather data collecting stations were MANUALLY operated (by that I mean daily readings were taken at 9am by someone like me, the thermometers checked and re-set, rainfall measured etc), the information was recorded and passed onto the local met office collecting site on a daily or weekly basis. There were a large number of sites (in the 100s) that only had data read and collected ONCE PER DAY. All of the collected data was adjusted by the met office computer (yeah, right!!) and monthly data was then sent back. It was always adjusted to take into account local variations, human error, missing data etc. The stations that remain now are all automated, sending hourly data to the met office. This means that there is little data actually seen by the public now so they have to rely on what is told to them.
On 03 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Mack said: "Of course, I don't know where 'Stu' did his own Phd in astrophysics or indeed which program on the international space station he himself supervises."
LOL. But as I said below, I have a meteorology degree - Masters, not PhD. However that more than qualifies me to refute Abdusamatov's claim that "Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away." That claim has zilch to do with astrophysics - just atmospheric physics. Greenhouse gas molecules absorb longwave radiation. They then bump into their neighbour - usually a nitrogen or oxygen molecule - transferring their energy. That's how they give their absorbed heat away - not by floating high in the atmosphere and radiating to space (and if you infer a different meaning to his claim, please share it).
On 03 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
COLDING; STEVE, ALL. WE said some time ago that cooling already began - as shown by satellite data not Warmist fraud. In March 2013 we said WildJetStream / mini ice age circulation was now clearly upon the world. I also often point out in talks that smoothed temperatures should really start to plunge about 2015. That's not quite same as world would be very cold 2015 but it would help. Russians were more specific that 2015 would see 'the start' of MIA. I will be very surprised if 2015 is not Below normal even on Warmist measures as defined now but no reality can withstand their ongoing fraudulent revisions and readjustments LOL of data. That is why we have to use as far as poss REAL PHYSICAL MEASURES EG ice cover, SNOW COVER, sea ice smoothed eg although all have their own probs. World temp averages actually are of very little importance. They enable little understanding of weather or any of many climate types in the world which will occur anywhere. They are a wierd propaganda item.
On 03 Jan 2015, Mark Fuller wrote:
@ Stephen Parker. I doubt that many people on this site would be sick of the snow after a couple of cold winters, or praying for some global warming. Personally I'm sick and tired of the global warming propaganda, guilt tripping and control freakery from the establishment. I'm often in a grumpy mood in the post-Christmas period, and seeing a mature pink camellia[not usually out until Feb/March] in full bloom on my way to Walton Sainsbury's didn't help. This is so out of sync. , like snow in June. Must be global warming.
On 03 Jan 2015, Mack wrote:
Russ; I think you miss the point. Abdusamatov is totally OPPOSED to the idea of man-made global warming (See Wikipedia)...Of course, I don't know where 'Stu' did his own Phd in astrophysics or indeed which program on the international space station he himself supervises.
On 03 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Piers has said cooling starts in 2015. It is the foundation of the solar forecasters that solar cycle 25 will be weak and we will cool to around 2030, some say 2050. Check out piers old vids on youtube,
if it isnt happening by 2020, some people are going to have to find a new drum.
It will disproportionately affect the mid latitude northern hemisphere, David Archibald and some Russian scientists have been vocal on this and uncle Google can find it all for you.
We have five years to wait, maybe well all be sick of snow by then and longing for some global warming
On 03 Jan 2015, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Stu re: "...either something was lost in translation or he has no idea about how the atmosphere works." .... Stu, this is endemic in the western education system. Blinkered self interested scientists tasting the gravy, and liking it a little too much. Introverted loners are always blamed for jumping on the fringe theory bandwagons, and pumping up the conspiracy theories that abound. But all too often we see obvious $'sign meanderings by eminent scientists who are following their own versions of fringe theories, like CO2 induced planetary warming for a perfect example. It seems to us as if these scientists have forgotten a large part of their education, or have maybe had a stroke? Nope! All deliberate dodgy dealings and misleading claims, backed up by nothing more than the 3 most important letters in anyone's name these days...namely P, H and D!
On 03 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
As Hadley is the metO official temp series that is the one we have to go on.
Just out of interest the Manley observed temp series currently has 2014 at 10.80, so IT will be interesting to see where that comes out after final adjustments. 2006 WAS 10.90 AND 2011 10.85.
On 03 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Stu
Yep just double checked the adjustment was only,2c down so the previous was beaten by 0,03C.....now that is really splitting hairs and one I find questionable,,,,but its on the records so its there.
What I will say is that the weather station used in Redhill was binned by the metO and the one in Gatwick was chosen instead,,,,it consistently showed a higher temperature,
Re the Russian Astrophysicist, what point are you trying to make?
Re Ice levels, whatever is said the warmists duck under the Antarctica anomaly, which is odd as its absolutely a colossal +ve anomaly....
On 03 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Stu I take your point about coverage from BBC, however the coverage would have been far greater if the snow had affected the South, especially the London area. That would have made it the main headline for 3 days and would have been classed as a "big freeze"
On 03 Jan 2015, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Current (11AM) actual temps of 6.1C with windchill of 1.5C at 5BF WSW wind. Dry but looks like rain.
If nothing else, Pier's predictions prove that 'the weather' is something which cannot be correctly computed by any model currently in use by the majority of meteorologists. GW-ists will try and find explanations and solutions to match occurrences, whereas Piers comes up with solutions and explanations which frequently match events yet to occur. Therein lies the major difference in my opinion. Furthermore, the weather is not a locally occurring event, it is a complex system which is inextricably linked to the earth as a whole, and any location will be influenced by another, like different cogs in a system. The sun, as Piers has pointed out on so many occasions, is a major cog in this system. so that´s my two cents worth for the beginning of this year. BTW, Happy New Year to all ;-)
On 03 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY N DOWNS: you can get the current updates on power output per fuel type by googling Gridwatch. Wind is presently producing 4.1 % of UK supply.
On 03 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
SEA ICE, WORLD ICE ETC. STU my note is to be followed by more detail, as I said. The info I give refers to RECORD GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT AND RECORD ANTARCTICA SEA ICE EXTENT DAILY DATA for day 363 of 2014 reported on Climate Depot via my twitter feed 12.34am 2Jan; AND for further info to STEVE Goddard tweet 5.27 am 29Dec which gives a TWO YEAR AV and says approach record but the graph shows the same level as the record as far as is in the resolution of the image. I agree statements by all or any need to be back-able up and sources quoted as far as possible particularly in public statements. In my experience Climate Depot and Goddard are good at sourcing and it is usually official NOAA etc.
On 02 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
... I spent time outside by a lovely fire this yule under semi cover. There was a glorious bubble/corona of heat which always seems to draw people in. As the flames & long dark evening drew down the cold crept in. People slowly withdrew to seek warmth. We ran out of fuel (carbon) to keep the flames going but it remained comfortable in the glowing embers, the roof slowing the release of heat that always escapes to space. By the end of the evening the corona/bubble was for those hardy soles huddled round the fire our backs cold but faces still delightfully warm until finally we shivered too much and retreated indoors. Lagged SC23 ocean warmth temporarily trapped by the atmosphere & intermittently given a blowtorch flicker by SC24 max is a faux 'warming' a small burst of heat to an already warm pot. When solar flux/spots drops in the coming years & as with the last solar min when the flames are embers again it is going to be v interesting indeed. Happy New Year all
On 02 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Change again: only 2˚C at 7.30, ground frost in sheltered spots, strengthening WNW’ly wind, clear sky & sunshine for most of the day, occasional light rain showers, max temp 4˚, down to 2˚ again by 10pm under a clear sky and much calmer conditions.
On 02 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
5 deg. @ 9 a.m and a nice sunny start to the day, stayed nice until early afternoon then clouded over, temp. reached 7 and the sky overcast looked quite bleak for a short time, partly cloudy and 8 deg. @ 23.26 pm .
On 02 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...Personally I see 2015 a cold UK CET yr but top 10 global. The past year was NOT the hottest - constantly adjusted records (i.e. cooling the past, warming the now+urban heat) maybe but satellite records disagree+noise in data is great === http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/12/2014-a-record-warm-year-probably-not/ ===we are seeing greater disconnect between observation of the here & now vs. the fictional model based on the old narrative/paradigm/dogma. Always remember the temperature lag of a boiled kettle-it does not suddenly go cold especially with a flicker of flame applied here & there (intermittent solar max). Ice ages start with a warm spike before the crash, carbon dioxide lags - at all timescales. The smell is not the cause of the stench just something tangible. Does the tail wag the dog? Electrical impulses from the brain set the tail in motion. We cannot see when connections are on or off but we can observe the effects...
On 02 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Fred said "although the MetO are absolutely 'seething' that December and Piers end of year cold blast scuppered 2014 being the warmest" - no, 2014 WAS the warmest year on record according to CET. December: 5.2C (0.5C above average), and the year was 10.93C, 0.06C higher than previous record holder 2006.
Fred, I'm struggling to work out if you're for real - making easily refuted false claims. If not, well, I hope you'll take the correction on board.
Also, the Russian Astrophysicist is Khabibullo Abdusamatov. One claim he made that stands out is "Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away." - either something was lost in translation or he has no idea about how the atmosphere works. Greenhouse gases absorb energy and transfer it to other molecules by collision. The notion of them rising through the atmosphere like balloons is farcical.
On 02 Jan 2015, Stu wrote:
Piers said: "There is more Sea ice now than ever". See http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg - global sea ice has not been at record levels. Antarctic Sea ice did reach a record, but it was not enough to set a global record. Bold claims like that need to be specific.
Also, for all the BBC bashing that goes on here, does anyone take my point (comment is below) that the Boxing Day snow was heavily featured and related stories were the most read on the BBC site for three days in a row?
On 02 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...many times I have felt the chill in the air but then a small warm burst of breath as the wind picks up. Other days it the polar opposite with the wind cold & drawing breath. Averaging that period it easy to see why Dec ended up (provisional) at +0.8C for CET - the heart of England has had frequent warm tongues of air. But it does not always tell the full story.
It has been quite cold at points not remarkably so but enough to add layers & add a notch to the heating on still days & nights. Eventually the ground froze deep enough to crunch underfoot & for the 4 days before new year, frost lay all day long. One day small threads of rime everywhere after freezing fog. So, so beautiful. // Whilst it now looks warm a sting may well yet come. In reality Winter ends at equinox & snow is more common during easter than xmas. 47 & 91 were late winters. So was 2013. 2012 was also very cold albeit brief === http://ow.ly/GIDWh === There's a reason CET takes a dip in Feb - lag...
On 02 Jan 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Today was a beautiful day. It was much warmer than it has been, New Year came in cold then warmed as the night drew on. The day swung back & forth with a burst of wind bringing a few hours of chill again. From then the brief but strong bursts of wind brought increasing warmth so by eve it was comfortable temps wise even in the increasing bluster. Daylight today brought moist grounds & at points a very warm feeling sun. Gorgeous. What I've recently noticed, especially this morning despite the intense brightness under clear blue skies, the sun did not 'sparkle' as it has on recent clear mornings when large sunspots were present (monster spot AR2196 especially). Is that what we keep seeing when we report a sparkling 'brighter' sun? Under clear skies the chill came back as darkness descended. A few short minutes sat on a bench observing & pondering tells you a lot in winter. It has been such a back & forth past month in the south. Changes over a few days or even hours...
On 02 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
....Perhaps if we keep calling them out on these errors we might make them see sense. In today's paper we have the 'news' that when there is too little wind to be of any use, the windmills then consume energy to keep them from freezing up. There is then a claim that they provide up to 10% of our electricity generation - sound suspicious to you? Yes, me too but haven't had time to check yet but since the article mentions Renewables UK (their propaganda wing) one is inclined to believe this is in line with the recent claim that wind power was the leading generator for the UK but neglected to mention it was one isolated moment at 5am when demand is minimal. We also get the age-old 'generation capacity' thrown in. For politicians who have their head screwed on there is John Redwood, Peter Lilley and recently Owen Paterson who is probably the most experienced politician when dealing with the zealotry of the green blob and the EU.
On 02 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
I would agree that the timing of a 'warm year' is good for the warmists in the run up to COP Paris in September. It is important to remember that a failure to agree a new treaty at the COP is to our benefit and so ti is possible for the politicians to make things even worse if they agree. With Russia, India and China unlikely to play ball, as well as Canada and Australia, we can hope for failure. The BBC et al will be required to spew forth warmist propaganda all the way up to the meeting to a good fiercely cold winter for everyone would help the propaganda to fail. I accused the Mail of inaccuracy over a tiny piece about 'ocean acidification' based on a report from one of the usual suspects The Royal Society. In their defence they claimed it was OK to use that term despite the oceans not being acidic or turning acidic because the RS used it and so did the National Geographic Society. But of course both are trying to frighten about climate change.....
On 02 Jan 2015, Geoff wrote:
UK may currently be a little above average temp (shades of Christmas 1982?) but N America isn't and Eastern Europe is pretty chilly, so in terms of population affected, whether UK is warmer/cooler by a tad doesn't signify, if the long term trend forecast by Piers et al has been called right-someone will notice that what the High Priests of Warming are saying and what is happening are diverging at a rate of knots, and that might just set a few heads rolling- another instance of the 'UKIP phenomenon', which could lead the next generation of politicos to slip away from the Warmista rallies rather sharpish. Or the Establishment of the Warmly Righteous might revive the Holy Office of the Inquisition to preserve their grip in the face of the facts?
All we are seeing could easily be another case where Oceanic influence on the UK makes detailed forecasting a bit more difficult than -say- Winnipeg? And has the jet stream apart from wobbling N-S also shifted E-W 'our' S wobble now over Omaha
On 02 Jan 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Stephen Parker we are in middle of Monmouthshire about 2 mile from 1500' mountains at about 250' above sea level. get over to the east of the county and the rainfall is about10" less. When my dad used to record the rainfall about 12 years ago it ranged from 38 to 54" I am still using his gauge a old FW 5" gauge that I don't think you can buy now, its a lot more reliable than some of these cheaper electronic gauges, We farm on 185 acres with all beef fattening cattle and a few tack sheep in the winter.
As for wishing for snow I find it a lot easier to farm without it, it must be very frustrating for Piers when the Jetstream is so difficult to predict and upsets his forecasts.
On 02 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Walked home last night, after a New Year visit, to unseasonally mild temperatures, heavy rain and a raging spate in the River Tilt. Now heavy showers of wet snow and snow settling down to 600 feet or so. Seen it all happen before. Though generally cooler than last year, not so much snow above 1000ft
On 02 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
To Stephen Parker.....it's a mild disaster as its 'feeding' the warmist propaganda....although the MetO are absolutely 'seething' that December and Piers end of year cold blast scuppered 2014 being the warmest.
Weather enthusiasts and those that look into it can see results of the wild jetsream behaviour, can see that antarctica is at record ice levels and still increasing year on year, can see the crushing cold in various parts of the world. But like I say, a lot of people will just focus on where they are....
Re 2015 being the year when Piers' said temperatures start their decline, all I can say is I'm only aware of it was said by the Russian astrophysicistt. Maybe Piers can clarify?
On 02 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL! Hope you liked our Fireworks home page greeting! A LOT WILL HAPPEN this year - fuller statement later - both Weather and politics which as lots of you, SteveS many, Fred Rhys, Richard, CRAIG,..... Can see are mire and mire mixed up. Funny that typo mire not more but that is it! We have to now face direct brazen total lies on a massive scale. For example we have been told with official data: The world is warmer than 'ever' since.... AND SOMEWHAT not broadcast There is more Sea ice now than ever since... CLEARLY SOMEONE IS LYING - and it's not blocks of ice. They cannot both be true! Remember the CO2conners said the poles would get magnifications of Climate Change! BE-PREPARED! LOL! We face local national and international data fraud at govt MEDIA and UN level. Watch out for more...another trip to BBC ETC == AND RIGHT NOW encourage more super bargain long SUBS. ENJOY THE YEAR!
On 02 Jan 2015, Rhys Jaggar (annual 30D sub) wrote:
Well
Dear old Geoffrey Lean, well known paid hack for global warmistas Inc, is claiming in today's DT that a flip of the PDO is about to send global warming sky rocketing again. Oh, it's peppered with enough ifs and buts, but it is so selective in what it picks out as being important on climate influences as to be scurrilous at best.
Perhaps he'd have more credibility if he tried to integrate the effects of solar cycles, Hale Cycles, the PDO, the AMO and a few more influences on climate?
I guess that wouldn't fit with the 'funding narrative' would it??
On 02 Jan 2015, Steve,Dorset UK sub wrote:
A lovely day here 12c no wind to speak about, I have just seen a yellow butterfly floating past the window in this bright sunshiny day. What a great start to 2015
On 02 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Blimey Andy, did you have to say that? im thinking of retiring to wales!. Where abouts are you, are you sheep or arable?, dont suppose it would hurt the lambs to have a mild spring?
On 02 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Fred, why is it a disaster?, do you think one cold season will make any difference, when for example,all uk motoring taxation is based on co2 ?. While we have this crop of politicians, nothing will change. Do you see any up and coming politicians that are climate skeptics?.
My understanding is that its always been forecast by piers and other solar commentators that temps start falling from 2015.
It may be that we in the uk should be careful what we wish for, we are not equipped for long, hard winters
On 02 Jan 2015, Fred wrote:
Trouble is that this MIA footprint that is apparent with wild jetstream swings is 'working in favour for the warmists' on the face of it. 2014 point in fact being one of the rceorded warmest on record. Folk in general 'see' that we are warming and are unaware of the extremes around the globe and the record Antarctic ice extent. Of course unless it directly affects them one can understand that train of thought. Until we see more events like Dec 2010 or Spring 2013 then the warmists can propoganda themselves away. I am having trouble trying to convince the layman that we are headed towards/entering mini ice age as the weather in UK is not playing ball and there are no immediate signs of change either. Hence why I posted in December for Piers to really sell approaching extreme events...we could do with some divine intervention in this current mild 'disaster'
On 02 Jan 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
117 mm of rain in December bringing the years total to 1847mm or 72.75inches our normal rainfall is about 48 inches or 1200mm so we have had 54% more than our normal rainfall that has got to be a record for our area and perhaps many areas of UK? Heavy rain over night producing 30mm of rain, not a good start to the year with more heavy rain forecast for Saturday.
On 02 Jan 2015, Richard Brown wrote:
Its very striking that lots of meteorological terms are being used these days that were never discussed during my dealings with the met office during my former job. I wonder why......
On 01 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Very mild start, 8˚ at 7.30, light but persistent rain from about 11am onwards, lasting to 1pm, cloudy afternoon; temps rising to an amazing 10˚, still 9˚ at 10pm. Blustery WSW wind all day. HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!
On 01 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
12 deg. Now at 19.35 pm rain drizzle mild and windy ( sw ) actually balmy is more the description with gusts! Yellow wind warning for other counties on met.ie.. Happy New Year ...
On 01 Jan 2015, Brandon wrote:
I wonder what the SSW will have effect on the uk and ire? I'm just wondering if a major type SSW happens and leads to a sudden switch would this provide easterlies? And yet if sources are right snowfall will be a major thing to look out for which will grip england in record breaking snowfall or near, if everything turns out right I wonder ?
On 01 Jan 2015, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Good start to the year - Azores high pressure as predicted for the first period.
On 01 Jan 2015, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Piers without giving Jan forecast details away, I have noted your possible positions of highs and lows and the Jet stream and for certain periods and this month must be very tricky to forecast and we could end up with the polar opposites of the forecast (pun intended) Especially later in the Month.
On 01 Jan 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Well, in this country at least its been a warm year, dont believe me just check the C.E.T temp series, the oldest instrument series in the world, and Ice Age now is the Daily Express of the web.
Im not a warmist, but one must accept the facts.
On 31 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Richard Brown "Can somebody please explain why a sudden stratospheric warming event is good news for us snow lovers?"
I'll have a quick go. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurs when the westerlies high in the atmosphere, in the stratosphere, decelerate or reverse. These westerlies are essentially an upward extension of the jet stream. When the wind slows, the kinetic energy is changed to thermal energy, hence the warming. The disruption to the usual westerly flow propogates downwards into the troposphere, which causes the jet stream to weaken, allowing more blocking. That prevents Atlantic storms reaching the UK, making us more prone to cold blasts from the north or east.
Another way of thinking of it is as if the jet stream is a barrier keeping cold air to the north, over the Arctic. If the jet gets disrupted, it's like a dam bursting for the cold air to pour south into the mid-latitudes.
SSWs don't give guaranteed cold/snow here. It depends where the blocking occurs.
On 31 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Shaun also said: "According to MO data the whole of winter average low us 0 degrees so for most of the country that NEVER get minus 10 anything below 0 is below average."
Oh yeah it has definitely been below average, no argument with that. My point was I was surprised there were news articles about it - especially trumpeting the coldest weather in 2014, which has been a year notable for its lack of extreme cold in the UK! Didn't exactly take much to reach that benchmark, did it?
Look, I did a meteorology degree and I'm a commercial (i.e. non Met Office) weather forecaster. It just kind of bothers me that a bit of frost becomes news, as if it's something unusual.
On 31 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Shaun: "It is showing the nonsense claims of no more snow in winter etc. Especially when 90% of the time the bbc wont report it." - who claimed no more snow this winter? And the Beeb love reporting snow/cold, like any other media they know that weather stories = clicks with the British public. BBC News shows the most popular stories from the last 5 days. On Friday (Boxing Day): "Snow falls amid weather warnings". Saturday: "Motorists stranded by snowfall." Sunday: "Cold weather warnings follow freeze." Yeah, really covering it up weren't they!?
Gerry: The weather events you mention do "seem to be at odds with the claim" as you say. Perhaps you need to bear in mind that the 'record' anomaly (if it turns out to be a record in the end) is less than 0.7C. It still gets cold, and sometimes in usual places and unusual times. Cleverly, NOAA's global plots show Nov 14 being cold over the US (where it was actually cold!), the swine! Would be too obvious to lie THAT blatantly, wouldn't it?
On 31 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Can somebody please explain why a sudden stratospheric warming event is good news for us snow lovers? Its something I have heard about but not really understood. The met office are wallowing in their man made glory over the years figures. They havent bothered to explain that the number of weather reporting stations is drastically less than it was even 10 years ago and that they are all electronic now with only met office staff who maintain them. They used to estimate the readings from nearby stations if a weather station was out of action regardless of the fact that the nearby station could be 20 or miles away......They are grasping at straws.
On 31 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:
STRAT WARMS - JOHN E - See notes on home page and read our revolutionary Stratowarm LongRange forecast. == ALL, interest in the special deals is continuing please tell anyone who needs to know where to go. Thanks
On 31 Dec 2014, John E wrote:
can someone please enlighten me on the likely outcome of this please.......
It remains THEORY until it physically happens but the latest GFS projections look even better than the previous runs. If correct, it would appear a sudden stratospheric warming event is ready to occur with a 180 degree turn from strong cold pool to strong warm pool over Greenland within 10 days.
On 31 Dec 2014, John E wrote:
What a miserable day here in South Lancs. It was so clear last night as we walked up to the local for a meal, frosty and fresh, at 23.00 it was still the same but now its milder and there is a dampness in the air which is giving way to some light rain. Miserable, bring back the cold air please
On 31 Dec 2014, Col wrote:
Very cold start here in Lowestoft, freezing temps overnight and lots of frost. Still and sunny, lovely winters day
On 31 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Do we have to wait till midnight for the 30d?
On 31 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Thank you Shaun. The point is that in the claimed hottest year on record there have been 1) lots of record snowfalls by amount; 2) lots of earliest snowfalls on record; 3) record sea ice around Antarctica; 4) one of the coldest Arctic summers for 20 years; 5) a rebound in the minimum amount of summer Arctic sea ice; 6) lots of places in the US that have recorded their lowest daily maximum temperature during the summer. All seem to be at odds with the claim. Whether it is purely the warm pulse of water that flowed into the northern Pacific that has caused the 'hottest year' time will tell. White and frosty again this morning but it is already melting as the cloud cover has rolled in. The same thing happened yesterday with it being much warmer than would have expected given the frost and how cold it was the night before.
On 31 Dec 2014, shaun - wales wrote:
It is cherry picking and thats fine with me because it is evidence that does mean something. It is showing the nonsense claims of no more snow in winter etc. Especially when 90% of the time the bbc wont report it. Stu, you say the weather aint cold coz not below -10 thats so wrong. Winter just barely started and country wude experiencing sub zero temps. According to MO data the whole of winter average low us 0 degrees so for most of the country that NEVER get minus 10 anything below 0 is below average. There has been almost country wide below average temps for a week and winter only just started. Never mind statistical fact its colder January and February most of the time. The temps now are certainly outside the normal range and to say it means nothing is the ame as saying the hottest year on record means nothing assuming its true which according to thr Ipcc is true as they claim the 18 year hiatus in warming is to short in time frame to be significant... so who cares about year
On 31 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Gerry said: "Iceagenow has another long list of snow events for this 'hottest year ever' including snow for Las Vegas to add to all the other cold/snow records set since October."
You can list hundreds of unusual weather events, hot or cold, wet or dry, rainy or snowy - they prove very little! The weather is never benign across the whole planet; as we are so globalised and connected, you hear about all interesting weather! If the list only presents snow events, isn't it rather skewed? Perhaps could be legitimately accused of cherry-picking?
On another subject, I note the media recently reported on 'the coldest temperatures of 2014' in England, Wales and Ireland. But it hasn't broken -10C! These temperatures are usually reached quite often in winter and certainly I don't consider them newsworthy!
On 30 Dec 2014, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
I Will be glad to see the back of this snow and ice now. I wouldn't mind a couple of milder weeks, give the boiler a rest. No signs of high pressure in the right places to deliver nationwide snow and freezing temps for now. It could be that the south misses the snow events this year, if the current pattern of Jet stream persists.
On 30 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Not as cold overnight last night, 2 deg. Rising to 9 max today with a ssw wind around 32 kph so feels a little cooler still due to breeze, frost all gone by lunch time, the ground is still hard so can tell we have had a cold spell which is great for the veg plot. some sunny occasions & partly cloudy now at 20.03 pm still 8 deg.
On 30 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Quite a turnaround this morning: 3ºC at 7.30, rising to 6º by afternoon, very slippery on the roads in the forenoon on account of light rain on frozen ground, grey start but bright afternoon even with extensive cloud, clear evening & 2ºat 7pm.
On 30 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Well Richard, you cant have it both ways!. After the leak of the climate gate emails Mann and jones et al were pilloried for not releasing the data,albeit it was mostly tax payer funded.
If you post on somewhere like watts up with that , you will be called out for the data and thats as it should be. I followed wuwt, climate audit and the air vent after climate gate and i can assure you its all about the data, take for example " one tree briffa " lol.
All in all, we'll know if the Solar boys are right in the next five years, all predict a weak cycle 25 and plunging temperatures, so the debate should be over.
With regard to the met office they are rubbish more than three days out, and a good strategy is to expect the opposite to what they forecast medium/long term. They are part of the M.O.D, so we expect them to toe the government line, so called climate change is a massive left wing wealth redistribution and taxation scheme, which is perpetuated because the rich have hijacked it.
On 30 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Given that we can all be considered 'customers' of the MetO in the wonderful leftie abuse of the term since we pay for it whether you like it or not, I think it is reasonable to criticise their efforts given that many people think that their forecasting has got worse in the last couple of decades, not better. We are also expected to trust their predictions for decades into the future when they can't even manage a few weeks ahead. But weather and climate are different you say - the unprecedented failure of the models used for climate must have an effect on the models used for weather since modelling the global circulation must be in both. Iceagenow has another long list of snow events for this 'hottest year ever' including snow for Las Vegas to add to all the other cold/snow records set since October. Hard not to think there is an element of propaganda in the run up to the Paris COP next year.
On 30 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the one thing the warmist yapparrazzi will never do is challenge WA on a prediction/actual ratio test even tho WA has offered that challenge to them several times. Bookies won't take that bet either after paying out. IMO from my study and comparisons WA has a prediction actual ratio of 60% or better while the warmist imo have about 20% which is worse than a random 50% so they have negative skill. You will rarely see a Meto warning more than 48hrs ahead. A true scientist would ask what am i doing wrong and what is someone else doing right and how can I improve. This doesn't happen which tells me modern science and its institutions is pretty sick and has been hijacked by those with agendas other than discovering without fear or favour the laws and truths behind the physical world.
On 30 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
"if people make claims, its perfectly normal to ask for the data so it can be verified, to be accepted it needs to be replicated.." science is full of secret methods so the other way to verify is if the predictions match actual. So if we say unless some wonder drug reveals its secrets no one will use it despite the trials showing it works? meto and the hadley warmist modellers fail the prediction/actual test. The warmists keep some of their model algorithms a secret and even go out their way to hide their data from scrutiny [see hadley emails]but we are asked to bet billions on their predicitons . Giving WA has got something right and empirically more right than the warmists with their disastrous prediction/actual ratio then why do they spend so much effort trying to trash WA while pumping the warmist 'science'. Choosing the better over the worse is rational. Doing the opposite is irrational. Egos chasing state funding =scientific method these days
On 30 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
... considering we're supposedly in the warmest year on record
On 30 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
Game over, doesn' some people say he seasons start around he 21st = winer has only just begun, plus the statisic that cold and snow comes January and February? Ian Brown sounds like one heck of an ignorant ape.
Especially when it has been quite signigicantly cold for December, between -2 and -4 for days here and I see it is as cold and colder about.
Anyway, my main reason for posting was o ask if anyone knows if it is normal for the Thames to freeze in places. I follow a guy Sean Conway, a British adventurer; currently he is kayaking the length of the thames and as it is his livelihood he blogs and posts regularly about it. This morning he posted a video of a frozen Thames, as he woke up to set off again this morning he found it was frozen and rolls a ball across the service to show. Link is https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=818176204894890
you may have to add him as a friend to view, I'm not sure. Does anyone know if this is normal an annual occurance or is it odd...
On 30 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
The point is is thats how science is supposed to work, if people make claims, its perfectly normal to ask for the data so it can be verified, to be accepted it needs to be replicated.
On 29 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Heard on the radio this morning that Braemar had -7ºC, so was expecting equally low temps here – but we only had -1º at 7.30, went up to 3º in the brilliant sunshine we had all day. Clear sky, light NW’ly breeze, eventually turning into WSW, -2º by 10pm under a clear sky, car thermometer said -5º but I don’t trust that totally. == Re the spat on WATTS, I think it was actually also Willis Eschenbach who was having a pernickety go at Piers for being a day out or something trivial like that. A lukewarmist, :-), or a demicoldist?
On 29 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote:
I see that Ian Brown (modern winters) predicting on twitter that it is Very close to being game over for the cold hearted winter forecasts ; realistically no HLB until mid Jan at the earliest PV very much in control, what a surprise hearing that statement from him.lol
On 29 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
CONTINUED == REMINDER! LOOK ON HOME PAGE - Great Offers 2/3 OFF, Half price and great other offers for all forecasts BI, Eu, USA to boost members for the coming months and year. 12m subs and Whole-winter-now and whole-Spring-now are especially good offers. So Dont miss out yourself (extensions can apply to existing subs of course) and pass on the news to any you know- farmers who want Spring etc etc. Thanks
On 29 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL == On the cold end Dec &/or start Jan issue mentioned by a number of people we should note there is only 1day between 31Dec and 1 Jan and if it wasnt the boundary between years and months we would hardly be concerned. Having said that it does seem the cold bit we correctly forecast did come a day or 2 early and looks like decreasing a day or so early. One might think this is related to the faster solar wind (see updating graphs) now, or more likley it is just 'noise' in the unknowns of our Solar-Lunar Action Technique. The cold has gone further south in Europe too. == In this current period AND ESPECIALLY into January the increasingly wild Jet Stream will make serious problems for model forecasts (as well as posing our own challenges) so I strongly agree with those who say dont expect much from models more than a few days ahead. This also applies to Jet stream forecasts which are even more uncertain. = On WATTS, it wasnt about publication; he's a luke-warmist and I'm not.
On 29 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Around -4 overnight a very harsh widespread frost and temp only 0 deg. at 11.am, I could see the frozen footprints from the day before, countryside looked beautiful glistening in the sun for a while, roads looked dangerous, clouded over a bit and temp reached 6 but felt like 3 deg. frost stayed on the roof on the North and West side all day and still there now. Some fog early evening and partly cloudy @ 18.44 pm not looking as cold overnight tonight but feels raw enough..
On 29 Dec 2014, Lorraine wrote:
There is no denying it has got really cold quite suddenly this week and it might be interesting to see what wool come in January tempting again. I saw mistle thrushes in flock so the have come to the island of Huernsey to feed which tells me that Northern Europe is going to get. Very cold.
Happy christmas after all our pagan fathers celebrated 12 days of Christmas 🎅
On 29 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Hi all, yes the met office have been very good this December but talk of into late January is a step too far, really the models more than a week out enter the realms of fantasy.
I personally don't like the abuse that is thrown at the met office, they work with what they have, and people should differentiate between those doing their best and the political appointees at the top.
Having said that all their seasonal forecasts have failed, so talk of a mild January could be wide of the mark.
Time will tell.
On 29 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Mark - Barometer is rising steadily, now 1034hPa. Wind is all over the place, check out this map http://www.weerplaza.nl/actueel/wind/
Dutch KNMI is predicting up to 11C for this Friday with W-SW winds. We, however, almost always have East winds. In 9 out of 10 cases a SW comes up when a storm is brewing. For decades I have tried to tell the KNMI that we seem to have some form of micro-climate going on here (specifically the triangular area roughly between Dokkum-Holwerd-Lauwersmeer) for which neither the Wadden Isles forecast nor the general forecast is applicable. It's almost as if a very specific type of weather pattern sneaks in between the isles of Ameland and Schiermonnikoog and then influences that triangular area. No scientific proof whatsoever, but wind, rain and other weather is always different here; either more intense or less so.
On 29 Dec 2014, Paul wrote:
Met charts showing no sign of any real cold but of milder atlantic winds for end of month into Jan. They have been spot on recently. No sign of a cold start to January.
On 29 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Very confused at this moment in time have been keeping an eye open and I hear so many forecasters going about two weeks ago saying how cold the new year will start and it's one to watch and as the times got closer there prediction to milder weather has switched and is now apparently mild all the way through until late January ? But from my perspective i thought myself that the cold would arrive big time v early new year? The models are going for a very mild 12 by Thursday and into the weekend?
On 29 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Russ - I might be mistaken but I thought the spat with Watts was because he thought Piers should write a paper on his method and submit it for review and publishing in a journal so that others could see it and build on it. However, since Piers makes his living from his work and its uniqueness, why would he give it away? If he was funded by taxpayers then fine but as a private enterprise it would be akin to inventing something like a new material and just giving it away to the competition. Very white and frosty on The Downs this morning. Clear sky and sun but I expect the shaded side of my roof to stay white all day. Death toll from the cold in India increasing - how they would love some global warming. Big snow hit in the Alps - too much as it has stopped people from getting there to ski. Canada shaping up for some -30c temps - hard to imagine what that would be like.
On 29 Dec 2014, Mark (subscriber) wrote:
The Met office are currently underestimating the intensity of the high pressure cell affecting NW Europe- pressure is already(11.00am GMT) at 1044mb over the SW peninsular, Brittany, and the Loire Valley, but the Met forecasts it will not reach this intensity for another 12 hours and will thereafter decline. Of course, according to Met Office models it has to decline to allow in the milder SW winds forecast to penetrate the British Isles by the New Year, as per their prediction- for what that is worth.
Saskia- looks like Fryslan is getting the benefit of a decaying shallow low over Helgoland, and a consequent NW flow over a still relatively mild North Sea. However if the high continues to build, that won't last !
On 29 Dec 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subr) wrote:
This months forecast seems to be an inversion. We actually got a long spell of mild wet and windy weather and then a switch to bone cold weather on Christmas Day with rock hard while soil outside now. The high winds just after Christmas were correctly forecast. For a long range forecast this is not unknown but the regular polemics about other forecasters do give them an open goal to put the boot into Piers when this happens.
On 29 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Yes Paddy. I remember the A Watts trying to tell our astrophysicist that he didn't understand the scientific method. Applying the method 100% to weather is like trying to find the statistical significance of a grain of sand rolling left or right when the wind blows across a beach. Soooo many variables! They use dirty tricks too. When I accidentally posted a wrong link about snow from the BBC I omitted to check the date of the article before posting, which was a year or two askew. I apologised for the error, but they closed posting on the thread there and then, after my post, made me look like a scheming infidel. Schoolboy tactics from gentlemen with large moustaches.....never trust 'em! ..... Our temperature sensor was too far away from the base station last night so I only got an outside readout from 10:30am which was -3.4C. Now the sun is up the temp' is hovering around 0.0C.....
On 29 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Currently (Noon) temps of 4.6C with windchill of -0.3C, 4BF NE wind. NW wind in eastern (2BF) and western (6BF) parts of the country resulting in resp. 2.8C/-1C and 7.4C/1.8C. Our region slightly overcast with sunny spells, feeling decidedly warmer than previous days.
On 29 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Variable temperatures and weather across NZ during these R3 periods. In our region it has been hot and, for the last few days very humid. Xmas Day reached 25 degrees and it was hot. We've had some more rain which has been welcome here.
On 28 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Another crisp and frosty morning, -1ºC at 7.30, no clouds and just a light NW breeze, the ground was white with hoarfrost, more so than yesterday. For a change, it warmed up a little today to 3º, though the ground stayed frozen, and by 10pm it was down to -1º again under a clear sky and moonshine. == Piers, I have to confess that I don’t always scrutinise the forecast word for word, so the mention of the Scandinavian High escaped my attention. I think that is probably a mistake that quite a few people make and some then complain that you’re not accurate etc. You may be blue in the mouth by now from telling all and sundry that your forecasts don’t replace the short term and local forecasts, I remember that you had a bit of a run in with A Watts on that subject some time ago.
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Thanks Steve! I've had this virarse, which makes your back ache for about three days, feels like you've fallen down a mine shaft, then you end up feeling like you haven't slept for 5 months! ..... Yes, a very Happy New Year to all, especially Piers, without whom we would all be licking our fingers and sticking them up (in true carry on fashion), to see which way the wind was blowing. .... Snow-wise, it's gone all hard & crispy as my daughter found out this afternoon when she tried to build a snowman but couldn't due to the frozen powdery snow. Our road has remained a one inch thick ice sheet. Temperature sensor is ootside ready to prove the Met Office wrong again. You have to give them credit for this snow and cold snap though, from about 4 days ahead too...not bad at all, good effort Mr Harrybin. You should give everyone a bonus, 'we' can afford it!! d:^)
On 28 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Lovely and cold today temp only reached 4 deg. for a short while, frost never left all day though some areas defrosted partially for the small bit of sun we had, perfect crisp winters day to crunch about in, beautiful starry sky and 1 deg. now at 6.15 pm feels colder and another freeze up tonight :)
On 28 Dec 2014, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Going to be very cold here in the snow fields of Yorkshire tonight. Only got to 1 degree this afternoon and side roads already frozen solid again at 5pm. This snow will be around till New Years Eve by the looks of it.
On 28 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Russ NE Derbyshire wrote,
Russ wishing you well as you seem to have woken up to some serious stuff you need the night nurse lol, I hope we are not all doomed, but at my age I have enjoyed the best of times, yes we have two stories heat doom or cold doom,maybe they will meet in the middle = no change. Have a very healthy and prosperous new year to you all.
By the by it is another gloriously sunny day here at 2:25 sunday 6c. we may get a tutch of frost tonight.
On 28 Dec 2014, C Vew wrote:
big snow storm hits French Alps
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30613481
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd ...... Blimey! This is turning into a mini Christmas Lecture! Something keeps happening to knock humans on their back to start over. I wonder whether ice ages have something to do with this? Maybe this is the first time we have had a head start, when the next interglacial happens. We have come so far. Someone, somewhere, must be planning for a coming ice age. It is said that we have enough nuclear fuel (including recycled fuel rods), to last 3,000 years. We 'need' enough to last 50,000 or more. We need more fuel. Maybe the Georgia Guide Stones are telling us a cryptic version of what's to come. We need a sustainable population of 500 million, or is this the number that can be sustained for 50,000 years? In the zones which are warmest, where mankind can survive the next ice age, there will be catastrophic weather events, which will wipe out crops, drought being the most probable with all that fresh water trapped in the ice sheets. Back to the stone age then..........?
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd ....... We have made enormous advances in technology in just 150 years, but also cleaved each other in two with all manner of weapons for the previous 10,000 years. But think of this. Beyond 5,000 years hardly anything is known of human existence. We are still piecing together bits of Roman pottery to learn more about our recent history, and haven't got a clue what the giant pyramids were for, even though different types are found on almost every continent. We can't even find definitive proof of how old the flippin things are. After 90,000 years maybe a previous civilisations pyramid would be reduced to a large pile of rocks. We need to look for evidence of our distant past several kilometres off the coasts of Africa and India. This is where people lived and fished while the last ice age was happening. There must be some very interesting stuff on the sea bed from, say, 20,000 years ago. Better hurry up...time is running out! cont'd
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Piers, I've asked before if, during a Grand Solar Minimum, is there a possibility that the sun could have a huge coronal hole over both poles?. Looking at the solar disc on spaceweather.com, it is looking more likely as we head toward this coming solar minimum. At solar min' the corona weakens over the poles but remains inflated around the solar equator. At solar max', the corona is inflated over the whole solar sphere. So logic tells me that during an extended solar minimum, a Grand Minimum, the corona could weaken over the poles enough to show massive coronal holes. This is the first time humans will have been able to observe such an event. Then again, if 2,000 years without humans would leave hardly any trace that we were ever here, >> http://www.channel4.com/programmes/life-after-people << then after 90,000 years, the time period between interglacial warm periods, I doubt if any trace of a previous advanced civilisation would exist, anywhere on the planet. cont'd
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
A coach taking folk from Sheffield to London got stuck leaving Sheffield (have they not heard of traffic cams?). I've been ill so missed all the fun.
On 28 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Piers re: CO2 causing giant effects on the sun. This must be the 'magnetic suction event' as described by the eminent astrodynamics expert Dr Heinz Schnitzelgruber of the Scunthorpe Institute of Retired Physicists. In his hallmark paper, he explains the mechanism by which unimaginably powerful magnetic pulses race toward earth from the sun and induce weather effects, but, he states, there are magnetic shock waves which race back along the magnetic connecting portal joining the earth and sun. This portal magnifies this reversed pulse, so when it reaches the sun it triggers enhanced solar activity. More can be read about this phenomenon in the Gardeners World magazine April 1999 article, 'Why are my pansies wilting in this lovely summer sun?'........ Got a few inches of schnee here in frozen Derbyshire. Usually, with 3 inches outside our house, there are a few more inches on the tops about 5 miles north of us. Our road is an inch of solid ice brrrrr!
On 28 Dec 2014, paul wrote:
No sign of anything really cold here in Lowestoft. It only managed to get down to 4.3 degrees here last night. I see the met charts for 120hrs ahead are reverting back to milders Sw'ly and more atlantic weather with the cold across Nw europe being quickly swept away.
On 28 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Sunny & dry but clouds swiftly moving in from the North (Wadden Isles area). Last night a 7BF NE wind with just below freezing temps turned walking the dog into a decidedly unpleasant experience. Northern part of The Netherlands currently warmest spot in the country, act. temps 0C with hardly any wind, while the South currently has a windchill of -11C! The South also had the most snow yesterday while we had none. However, there's still plenty of time for snow to fall. The night of 1 March 2005 covered Fryslân province with 30+ cm of snow ;-)
On 28 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold yesterday with temps dropping overnight to -2 widespread frost and ice this a.m and 0 deg now at 10a.m though feeling colder..
On 28 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
CONTINUING! Of course I have simplified the snow / not-snow questions because they are not easy. COMMS from model experts on why there was less snow than short range models in the short-sharp snow in parts UK ON 26/27th would be appreciated. Does my greater mobility expected comm in main text above make sense in model world. === NICE ONE USA! Just seen tv of USA cold blast east Rockies coming in which is as WeatherAction USA forecast and part of a circulation switch. Europe is also having a circulation switch. The jet stream is a world matter of course which is why switches happen at pretty similar times and because the solar effects are world wide. Co2 theory of course has not got clue about why we are in a wild jet stream era and if they come up with an explanation and if it does (remember lies are their hallmark) they will have to explain how that also causes giant events on the surface of the sun. ON this WATCH solar, SolarWind, geophys+stratowarm this JAN AND FEB; RHS Homepage.
On 28 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
Thanks for comm Paddy. Just to note you having finer skies east Scotland in period 23-27 is in line with the forecast of Scandinavian high. It is just that we did not go into detail in the words which maybe we should have. The main point was cyclonic Brit and ire as lows came in - confirmed - and logically also more rain in England, Wales and Eire than (east) Scotland - confirmed. In general re points elsewhere the mild xmas day / box day +/-1day was as forecast. Although the post Xmas colder came in a day or so early for many the colder towards end year trend B+I forecast is on track. The short sharp snow - not in forecast for this part but not logically excluded either because it was expected to get colder - happened because the wet bit was/is still on as colder hit. One can always say possibility of snow on leading edges of attacking lows into cold air but that can be very transient or even not there and that stresses snow lovers. For prospects of more serious snow see Winter fc.
On 27 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
-1º at 7.30 and for the rest of the day, no snow, just widespread hoarfrost and a light N’ly breeze, quite sunny with some clouds, another lovely winter’s day really. -2º by 8pm, starry sky in between the clouds. No complaints here, even if it’s not as per Piers’ 30d forecast for our location; England continues to have milder temps and had lots of rain yesterday - oops! ... and snow as I just found out from reading the home page.
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