On 17 Jan 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
My girls are delighted, it has been snowing, big fat flakes of snow for the last half an hour. The first snow of the winter in our part of the Chilterns!
On 27 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
A very clear blue sky with wall to wall sunshine today 27th Dec. 7c , now yesterday was Grey and wet if it stays clear tonight it will get a bit chilly.
On 27 Dec 2014, michael wrote:
South Glos 600' asl.
Beautiful sunny39F today after a grey wet 41F yesterday.
On 26 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Not nasturtium weather here, Mark: -4ºC at 7.30 this morning, and that’s 5 ft off the ground, hoar frost on grass & lying leaves, people driving very carefully on the little road that passes us. Sunny & still all day, ‘warmed’ up to -3º, that’s all. We had guests late afternoon who said that their car thermometer read -5º as they approached our hill. Somewhat cloudy and less cold tonight at -1º by 10pm, maybe snow in the offing, seeing that we have an occluded front approaching from the NW. All this is cause to celebrate, we haven’t had such frost for at least 2 years, we’ll have far fewer pests in the garden in the coming year, long may it continue. And folks down in England are having all this rain, typical BI weather!
On 26 Dec 2014, Mana Singh wrote:
Hello all, just want to say its Snowing here in Bradford. About 1.5cm has accumulated so far. Wish everyone the coming a Happy New Year. :D
On 26 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cool start overnight frost washed away, rain and then almost sleety rain, temp reached 7 but feels colder, back down to 4 deg. now at 20.26 pm cold fresh NNW wind making it feel like -1 mostly cloudy and the odd cool drizzle that feels like it wouldn't take much to snow :-) but it prob. won't :-/ though I wish it would!-)
On 26 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
Seasons Greetings everyone
Its a very still day again here in South Lancashire. Cold but not exceptionally so but it is very overcast and almost peaceful so lets see what happens later today and into the weekend. I somehow don't think that we will see temperatures approaching the balmy 10 degrees or so of last week and we might struggle to get to 5 or 6 but tonight it will drop I reckon to below freezing. Not unusual but its what follows that could be interesting
On 26 Dec 2014, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & All, happy Christmas, snow warning here on the Wirral along with North Wales. Chris Booker in the Mail today warns of plans to ban gas cookers & boilers to save CO2 levels.
Methinks the inmates have taken over the lunatic asylum, can this nonsense get any worse with our nonsensical politicians?
On 26 Dec 2014, Mark Fuller wrote:
My nasturtium is still in in bloom. I've always associated nasturtiums with the sun, but have never had one flower around the winter solstice before. It is a little surreal but not entirely surprising. We've had an exceptionally mild autumn and the British climate is extraordinary, given our northern latitude. I used to live in the Scottish Highlands, and have seen the Palm trees at Plockton[NW Highlands], Tongue[north coast] and Stromness[Orkney]. This is down to the gulf stream of course. In Liverpool, a conurbation of 1.25 million , heat from the buildings nudges temperatures up still further. Hence the Christmas nasturtium.
On 26 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Happy Boxing Day (hangovers) everyone! Just sent a short-range weather update to some friends and family of mine who are travelling over the weekend. Looks pretty dull anywhere south of a line from Bristol to the Wash today for snow lovers. A band of rain and strengthening winds moves from W to E bringing a wet afternoon for those in the South, and increasingly sleet/snow for anyone in the Midlands northwards. All eyes on the overnight and tomorrow period in which the winds really pick up and then from a NE'ly direction. Netweather.tv snow risk charts show snow as far south as London for a 9 - 12 hour period ending Saturday evening, hence why I'll be spending today driving up and down the A12 visiting family and not doing it tomorrow! Could the wait for snow finally be over in this corner of the country? Here's hoping. A belated Merry Christmas to Piers, his staff and all contributors to this pioneering website :-)
On 26 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Happy Boxing Day (hangovers) everyone! Just sent a short-range weather update to some friends and family of mine who are travelling over the weekend. Looks pretty dull anywhere south of a line from Bristol to the Wash today for snow lovers. A band of rain and strengthening winds moves from W to E bringing a wet afternoon for those in the South, and increasingly sleet/snow for anyone in the Midlands northwards. All eyes on the overnight and tomorrow period in which the winds really pick up and then from a NE'ly direction. Netweather.tv snow risk charts show snow as far south as London for a 9 - 12 hour period ending Saturday evening, hence why I'll be spending today driving up and down the A12 visiting family and not doing it tomorrow! Could the wait for snow finally be over in this corner of the country? Here's hoping. A belated Merry Christmas to Piers, his staff and all contributors to this pioneering website :-)
On 26 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold start to Xmas Day patchy frost in places, sky was blue and some nice sun around, lovely day, temp reached 7 deg. for a short while back down to 4 late afternoon and 2 now at midnight.. interesting weather ahead...
On 25 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Another splendid sunny day, -1ºC at 7.30, frosty all day, max temp 1º, down to -1º again by 9.30pm, biting NW’ly breeze, just as you would wish at this time of year. == Yes, that comment from Mark on his nasturtiums at the end of December is pretty amazing, they’re usually the first to go if there is even a whiff of frost; that said, we still have the occasional bush in our wood with a few leaves left on, albeit in sheltered spots.
On 25 Dec 2014, Mark Fuller wrote:
@ Craig, not only are some of my nasturtiums alive, a solitary bright yellow flower opened on the 23rd. The repeated frosts that you mention, simply didn't materialise in north Liverpool. My home is just 2 miles from the open sea, which generally renders the climate somewhat milder than inland locations. Birmingham , for e.g. experiences more frost and snow than does Liverpool. Having said that, today, Christmas day , we've had a few hail showers which became sleety as they fizzled out.
On 25 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
SPECIAL XMAS DAY TOP WISHES to all readers and contributors. Thanks for all in the last year. We have advanced a lot. On the 2 blog posts I think that doesn't work. A subs only activity at times might be good but do realise one or two trolls are also subscribers. Current short range BI weather very interesting even though transients. The cold uk and west Europe NEly is very like set up we wanted earlier in month; which is helpful. -- ALL WINTER and ALL SPRING BI
full of interesting things so I hope more will take up offers which stay until blog updated soon.
On 25 Dec 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual 30D sub) wrote:
Bob Weber
Re your discussion of US subscribers, I think you have to ask at the end fo the day what the value proposition is for potential purchasers.
For many people, Piers' product will be quite complicated, challenging and, perhaps in their eyes 'not accurate enough'. Sometimes Piers' forecasts are stunningly accurate, some months, less so (like this one where the UK forecast has not been accurate for the SE in terms of the major headlines given (which haven't occurred).
I guess you would ask questions like: 'for Joe Schmo, what's the difference knowing about a Lake Effect storm in Buffalo 3 days early or 30 days early?'
Now if you are a shipping contractor using the Great Lakes waterway system, you'd seriously value knowing whether the whole lake system would freeze up two or three months in advance, because you could organise alternatives where necessary. However, you might find that forecast 9 months in advance considerably better.
On 25 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Violent Boxing Day weather 'bomb' will batter Britain with snow, rain and gales" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11313024/Violent-Boxing-Day-weather-bomb-will-batter-Britain-with-snow-rain-and-gales.html
On 25 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Teaching 15 year olds that the electrons create a magnetic field which forces electric charge to flow across the circuit works, as I have proven. More difficult to convince a 40 year old, who has lived half their life believing the wires in their walls have lots of tiny black balls of electricity flowing through them like oil. Try talking about moving charge without using the words electricity, static electricity or electric current. Just change the word electricity for charge I hear you say, but try it. It's very difficult to let go and re-educate ones mind, after an entire education tried to convince you that electricity was trillions of invisible dots rushing through the metal wires. Once you grasp the concept, get a basic mental image, it's then hard to go back and view charge any other way. If we don't understand charge flow then we are not going to be able to understand electric weather effects, because we'll hit contradictions where the truth conflicts with the text books....
On 25 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Describe in as few words as Christmas will allow, the changing weather over the past two weeks in the UK. I would say that it's like eating a turkey, stuffing and apple sauce bread roll, where the stuffing is hot, the turkey is warm and the apple sauce is cold, and each mouthful, you never know if you'll get something hot, cold or both. That pretty much sums up, temperatures at least, over the last 10 days or more. Yesterday was bitterly cold yet the day before was like early September, actual shirt sleeves warmth! ...... Alister... I agree that it's not a simple task but I firmly believe that young students require a different approach if they are to understand electric charge more fully as their education progresses. Teaching 15 year olds, who are acing in all subjects, that electricity is like lots of miners with sacks of coal on their backs running through a tunnel delivering the coal...the sacks of coal being the electrons. That is not going to help anyone understand the subject.
On 25 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
4 deg. Start Xmas Eve morning no frost here but some cloud around, light W breeze dying out throughout the day occasional cool showers sky cleared and occasional sun but feeling cooler max 7 deg. Lovely clear evening for the kids to see Santa's lights in the sky at 17.2O ish pm ;) Nice starry cold Xmas night and 4 deg. Wind very light changed to N @ 1.18 am ...zzzz
On 25 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...cont... it's frosty tonight and the day got colder as it went on. Very festive. If I can't have snow cold, clear & frosty is pretty hard to knock. Does look to be turning quite cold (wind chill brr) & snow in the mix - where very up in the air & timing of precipitation & cold air a problem. Models going to be useless until 12 hrs before any event. I hope everyone is wrong & the snow comes down in buckets & paints the landscape...as long as NY allows travel! //
Paddy snow in Switzerland/Highlands may be poor & it's indicative of the westerly flow which has pushed past us all the way into the Baltics, however I've been watching the cold rapidly push into Scandinavia on yr.no. Despite earlier pushes it never quite made much headway onto the Atlantic coast. It has now. Pressure slowly rising there. Having said that forecast is to warm up by NY. // Merry Christmas everyone. May you be safe & happy.
On 24 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Surprised to hear Mark's nasturtium are still alive all the way north in Liverpool. The repeated frosts earlier in the month killed mine off they took a fair hit in the air frost in Aug. I went for a walk yesterday & was surprised to see pink blossom on couple of trees. My hydrangea has also started budding which is a first but I've only had it 3 years & moved it close to the house surrounded by other leafy plants to shade it from late afternoon sun. The older hydrangea is in less sun & being much older & wiser is having none of it. The jasmine is undecided if it wants to finally shed it's remaining leaves. My daffodils are a good 6-8 inches & I noticed other bulbs were showing signs of life after a cat decided to help me The repeated frosts earlier in the month killed mine off they took a fair hit in the air frost in August. ! A few roses on the verge of blooming again for past few days. Not that unusual. I remember seeing a rose on xmas eve in v. early 90s & it had been frosty...
On 24 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
2ºC at 7.30 but frosty ground, a day of clouds and sunshine, with a good W’ly breeze, max temp 5º, clouding over by evening, followed by light rain around 7.30pm, by which time the wind had also turned into the NW. Clear again by 9.30pm, starry sky like early this morning. MO is giving a yellow warning for snow and wind for Fri & Sat. == Heard from my cousin in Switzerland that there is no snow there below 2500 m (approx 7500 ft) so the ski slopes above that height are absolutely mobbed. Scottish ski slopes not terribly good either for the time being. == Merry Christmas one an' all!
On 24 Dec 2014, Henk wrote:
Hi everyone,
As mentioned earlier we see a spectaculair change in weather pattern to begin during xmas till mid/end january. Lots of snow and frost is on the way. In line with the forecasts for a LIA and slowing gulf stream / solar flares. Pierce and other respecten scientist have warned for the future implications.The future is now. Merry xmas from Holland!
On 23 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
2ºC at 7.30, somewhat cloudy, slight W’ly breeze and turning into a sunny but colder day than of late, 3º max, frosty evening though still 1º on thermometer by 10pm.
On 23 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Sadly nobody seems to have seen my remark of the 21st of Dec WRT a developing extreme low, except Piers who posted the GFS chart online. Or am I posting in the wrong comms section? Anyways, looks like we'll have snow right after X-mas.
On 23 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
I've hopped on over to here as well as 2 blogs is tough going this time of year ;) Since I last posted forecast seems to be coming back on track and mild wet blagh weather, windy for a time last night too, around 10 deg. @ 20.38pm High humidity and a light W breeze, think temps are going to drop quicker tonight, Met here had yellow rain warning up over last couple of days in other counties, Merry Christmas to all of ye @ WA ;-)
On 23 Dec 2014, Alister wrote:
(Con'd) Leaving aside interchangeability of real and virtual particles, we know interplanetary space is not truly empty. Don't jump to conclude that a basic education is an attempt to deceive. Look at the constraints upon it, how much has to be squeezed into a relatively short time. Not all teachers are good at their jobs or are disinclined to give greater detail or other perspectives, in case it distracts students.
On 23 Dec 2014, Alister wrote:
Sorry, should have made clear to who I was addressing my point. It is possible to view the movement of charge in either direction, either as electrons 'passing round' a negative charge or 'holes' passing round a positive charge. That's still just convention, the fact that it is taught one way in school and another to engineers has no significance and is not used as a tool to manipulate opinion, as was inferred. If all the subtleties of any subject had to be taught to everyone in the education system, would we ever get grads out to work? E.G. many physics undergrads are never taught anything other than the Copenhagen Interpretation in quantum physics. This is not a conspiracy to convince them to 'just shut up and calculate', there isn't always enough time to to teach others, though some some may be lucky. (Con'd)
On 23 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Also Alister, School kids are taught that in a dc circuit, electric charge flows + to - but electrical engineers are taught - to +. The truth is that charge flows equally both ways, and none of the electrons that are causing the charge to flow are used up, or go anywhere. The electrons are not the electricity but just a tool to make electric charge available to use, by forcing it to flow in electric circuits. Standard issue scientists refuse to believe that electric charge can flow in a vacuum, even though their beloved electrons can hurtle through said vacuum accelerated to near light speed, and charge up the planets including our moon (force the potential or polarity to change, creating so called 'static charge').
On 23 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers, everyone, if all the non-USA commenters stayed on the UK blog, I would likely be the only writer on this blog, as very few USA subscribers self-identify or comment at all, sad to say. I doubt lowering your price any more will make it any more saleable either. What is needed is a morning WA TV show with hot weather babes prancing around showing off the weather and their assets together, like on the WC. So for that to happen somebody's ship needs to come in to finance all that overhead. It seems there's only so many truly analytical weather geeks who want a longer view of the weather than they can get on TWC or Weathernation or their local channel. There are other avenues besides TV, but they also take a lot of money & management time. Perhaps if this USA blog picks up in activity this winter it should be continued- and it should be given a chance to develop that far. I see no sign of any teenagers or college student age subscribers here either. From who will the next-gen learn?
On 23 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Alister .... The comment I made about +v & -v being part of a changing magnetic field was just a gloss of the recent findings from NASA pertaining to the earth's current sheet and radiation belts and how they are affected by the changing flux of the earth/solar magnetic fields. Example: A CME from a solar flare hits our ionosphere, and immediately electric charge starts flowing through the earth's crust/mantle and everything else, even objects which are 'not earthed' and completely insulated. The magnetic field penetrates all things and causes electric charge to flow through your mobile phone circuitry for instance, making the phone crash or perform oddly. Short wave radio can be blacked out, sometimes for hours. So the magnetic changes in near-earth space affect everything right down to the ground and beyond. The atmosphere and weather are part of that which is affected.
On 23 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry N Downs .... This just proves that the elite have been planning these wind farms since the 60s. The WWF, National Trust, Woodland Trust and RSPB do what, with the mi££ions they (beg) and take from fans of the British countryside? They buy up LAND! They own massive tracts of land in every corner of the UK especially high level open moorland and coastal areas. Where are the biggest wind farms? Hills of the Scottish Borders & coastal zones often just a few miles away from major bird reserves like Titchwell Marsh on the north Norfolk coast. I noticed last week while driving to Edinburgh, that a large swathe of forest which had been cleared a few years ago, had been covered by dozens of windmills. I wondered why, when they first cut down the trees, why they bared the top of the hilly ridge but no further. All they needed was a large strip of high ground at the top of a steep ridge to push the airflow toward the wind farm. Sneaky beggars!
On 23 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Another very mild day. 13 degs again here, with overnight low of 11 degs. Wind still coming in briskly from SW direction. Fortunately, not much rain here though and we currently have pale blue skies with high cirrus. The Icelandic MO show the Atlantic forecast with the merge of two lows over the UK late Friday & into Saturday, with a slew of precipitation coming in with them. Am completely confused about where to post. Had been posting in the other thread, which says it is UK only but I see most people are on this one which should be for USA comments!
On 23 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
While Mr Greer mentions the Norwegians, iceagenow has a piece on Norwegian ski resorts having to dig out the ski lifts in order for them to operate safely as they have too much snow at the moment. Also news of a cold spell in parts of India for the BBC to ignore.
On 23 Dec 2014, C View wrote:
@Ron Greer. The GFS charts would certainly back up that -10/-12 deg forecast. Have been watching World Cup skiing on TV lately and noticed that despite the race courses being well covered and prepared the land round about looks decidedly brown. Venues have been Italy and Slovenia. Now off to check the Euro ski reports to see what they are saying about cover. On the face of it, it would appear Europe is blowing hot and cold like we are in UK. Piers always said an MIA didn't mean wall to wall cold and brutal winters and that mild ones were part of the mix so maybe after about six fairly cold ones we are due something a bit milder.
On 23 Dec 2014, Steve C wrote:
Suggestion re the blogs: If you have a separate d/l page for each forecast category, you could have a "Discuss" button on that page to go to a "product-specific" blog page and discuss it with just fellow subs to that product. More experienced subscribers could "tutor" newbies openly there, and Piers could drop in to any blog occasionally to keep everyone honest. Non-subscribing swine like me could still comment here, fully moderated; subs (we hope) would probably be OK with much lighter moderation on the private pages, as only multiple subs would need to be careful not to spray WA secrets about. Ask your site coder! === E. Mids mild, a "nice October day" here at 12C, dry, 4/8 cloud and moderate variable wind. === Meanwhile, best wishes to all for a Merry Christmas and a Happy (and Successfully Predicted) New Year.
On 23 Dec 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
I see Mr Hammond of the MOBeeb is still vacillating over the eventual track of the low pressure system coming in from the Atlantic Frid/Sat. Further I note that the Norwegian MO is going for frosts of -10 to -12C for parts of the Scottish Central Highlands---might come as a shock for the acorns that have sprouted in my containers after the very mild November.
On 22 Dec 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//; re the program it was bbc 4 called A Winters Tale .. 🎅
On 22 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Really mild today, 6ºC at 7.30, SW’ly breeze, cloudy but the sun started breaking through soon enough so we had a pleasant day, max temp 7º. Wind gradually changed into a W’ly and began to feel colder by 5pm, down to 3º under a clear & starry sky. == Re 2 blogs: I would certainly prefer to stick to the one blog, great to have everything under one roof and read just one page, as we have comms from Russia, Japan, NZ, USA, Canada, France (Philippe Alsace, où es-tu?), Ireland & UK, especially useful when there are R4 & 5 periods.
On 22 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote:
Pretty windy with clouds in the Chilterns today with a high of 11 degrees.
On 22 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK Sub wrote:
Do we need two blogs really, one for the Americans and one for English/UK I think not, after all we speak the same language, well more or less lol. And we can see that you get the casts on the button in the USA, bigger continent I suppose, anyway let's have one big cosy blog so we can all put our five eggs in. And we can use the word gotten on occasions but only on occasions.
On 22 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
GREETINGS ALL! I NOTICE having 2 blogs active at same time not working COMMS please. == ASSESSMENTS REPORTAGE PLEASE note my comm on home page re forecast errors and that we are now back on track. Anyone wanting to comm on forecasts please note what has already been said there and in user COMMS rather than write as if errors (mainly in south) had not already been reported and discussed. Note much of public maybe do not know our DEC forecast never was cold all through. == XMAS IS HERE PLEASE SEE HOME PAGE FOR AMAZING TIME LIMITED OFFER AND WE SUGGEST GET NOW NOT LEAVE TO XMAS DAY. SITE crashed yesterday and who knows what greens have in mind for Xmas 'presents' so get now and avoid possible probs later. Thanks
On 22 Dec 2014, Alister wrote:
What relevance does DC circuit convention have to the weather? Anyone who has a little knowledge of this subject knows that the UK has traditionally assumed +ve to -ve, though most everyone else assumes -ve to +ve. You can select either, it's just a convention. Is this really pertinent to understanding the significance of the electrical and magnetic influence of our sun on Earth's weather, (over and above the often cited total solar insolation).
On 22 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
RSPB in trouble over a windfarm in Scotland that they didn't oppose even though local ornithologist said would drive away 40 nesting pairs of Golden Plover (windfarm built by SSE who had £1m deal with RSPB). Report yet to be released shows only 1 pair left. Good to see the RSPB has its priorities right - cash to fund eco-politics over birds. On WUWT little showing great 'success' of green jobs. Obama's war against the US economy and jobs has seen 6650 workers in nuclear and normal power generation lose their jobs. Only 900 recruited to windmills and solar. So green jobs destroying real jobs at a rate of 7.4. Impressive. Take a bow Obama and EPA. Great to see your policies to save the World working. Meanwhile, no warming found since 1998. Also on WUWT piece on essay by Donald Morton saying that even if warming does return it won't help the unprecedented failure of the climate models as they will still have to explain how the 'Pause'. Seems right to me if they want to claim accuracy.
On 22 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Mark Fuller and John E: Here in the - almost tropical SE - the daffs are starting to show a couple of inches and the Lycnis is trying to -and has flowered. So much for the LIA - weird weather - Westerly gales last couple of days . Fed up having to move the conifers with lights on out of the path of the wind. Thursday looking to be cold with no snow - perfect for a woodburner day.
On 22 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Russ and Craig ; I have noticed this for years about the time and shortening days , and now the BBC online has given the reason
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30549149
makes interesting reading - and for me simple to understand.
On 22 Dec 2014, steven wright wrote:
hi Lorraine you said you watched a program about the mini ice age on channel 4 at 7.30 on sunday 21st december ive tryed to find it on i player forgive me i am a little bit thick lol what was the name of the program thanks Lorraine
On 22 Dec 2014, Not supplied wrote:
My, it's windy this fine Equinoctiuntypical morning! Looks like rain later! You know how I love waiting for a train in a gale force wind and rain....never mind. Soon be spring! I'd like to mention this magnetic reconnection phenomenon. Magnetic fields swapping polarity. What else changes polarity? Electric charge flow.This reconnection behaviour where magnetic polarity changes is also electric charge polarity changing. Not many people realise that in a simple battery/bulb circuit, the flow of so called 'electricity' goes both ways, positive to negative and also negative to positive at the same time. Get you kids to ask their science teacher which way electricity flows in a circuit. The British educational system, keeping the sheeples coats shawn short....try saying that after a few Xmas cocktails!! HAVE A HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!
On 22 Dec 2014, Mark Fuller wrote:
I concur with JohnE; it's very mild here in the North West. Here in Liverpool my nasturtiums are still producing new leaves, and ivy continues to creep up the back-yard wall. There might be a frost on Christmas morning . I hope so. There is an other-worldly quality to frost and snow, especially leading up to and during Yule.
On 22 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK subscriber wrote:
Paddy Aberdeen........... there is no other posting place, haven,t a clue what the highlight in red stands for USA only,so you are correct. 13c this morning nice and warm out and about, a happy green christmas to you all. P.S by green I mean no snow.
On 22 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Is there a comments area for the uk? I thought this one was uk
On 21 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
There seems to be some confusion as to where to post, at least in my tiny mind, most people seem to be posting on this blog here which is meant for the USA - Craig, can you elucidate? == Here is what I posted on the 'other side' just now: 6ºC at 7.30, stiff S’ly wind, cloudy at first and feeling really mild all day, good sunshine in between cloudy spells, max temp a staggering (for us) 9º, down to 7º by 9pm, wind gone. What with all the heating, the house feels almost too warm again, so the cosiness value of the open fire is not what it was during the cold spells :-)
On 21 Dec 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//: channel 4 Sunday 22 7.30 interesting historical programme about the mini ice age in the 1500s and onwards to the mid 1800s interesting !!! Watch on I Player
On 21 Dec 2014, Bspin wrote:
Some Interesting stuff from WUWT about the Sun, (Just In Case You Missed It).
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/20/nasas-missions-reveal-the-origin-of-theta-auroras/
On 21 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Fred, I agree with you. The mechanics are simple. The Sun is more active recently, and that is why it's mild. Remember that Pier's SLAT includes "Lunar", and tomorrow the Moon reaches its southernmost declination, drawing cooler air southward in the northern hemisphere. This effect can be seen in weather maps as the southmost US wind chill boundary moves south or north depending whether the Moon or the Sun is winning the tug o war, or whether they are working together in phase. Considering that the Sun's F10 flux has averaged over 183 for a week, there's a lot of warm solar push northward off the tropics, however it is happening at our winter solstice, when the Sun's declination is 23 degrees SOUTH. So as solar flux diminishes somewhat during the next 27 day solar rotation, the Moon will be headed north, drawing warmer moist tropical air with it until it reaches the north node on Jan 3-4, before a Jan 5 full moon, and as Earth reaches perihelion, our closest distance to the Sun.
On 21 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
BTW, Piers' forecast for our area - predominantly the 'bitterly cold, then becoming milder' with fog, sleet and other assorted precipitation has been pretty accurate for the first 2 weeks. What followed was less accurate, but I'm sure that is explained in the 'sudden strato warmings' subscription. Anyways, keeping my eye on Dec 26-27.
On 21 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Grey, grey, some more grey, some depressing rain, some more depressing grey and the odd wind gust. Christmas 2014 looks like the usual suspect: windy, wet, temps above freezing. But ... !!! Middle of next week a common scenario - polar air colliding with sub-tropical air over the ocean - tends to offer a different perspective ;-) From what I've gathered (and please correct me if I'm wrong, just interpreting things here) this collision on Christmas Day #2 not only takes place exactly above the right entrance of the Jet Stream (where low pressure areas develop) but the sub-tropical air is somewhat warmer than usual. And that means more energy, right? So, is this the scenario for yet another one of those 'weather bombs' ? Will barometric pressure not only drop but this time nose dive? If so, and if this developing low pressure moves towards the southern end of the North Sea, we could be in for one heck of a storm here! If it goes North, this depressing weather continues, if South, colder.
On 21 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
I am amazed by this current weather pattern here in South Lancashire. Its overcast and incredibly mild, its also very still indeed. Looking at various reports elsewhere we will most certainly have a mild, for the time of year, day on the 25th and so a snowball fight after our Christmas lunch is not on the cards however beyond that and into the beginning of January, almost a third of the way through the winter who knows because I certainly dont
On 21 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Yes Craig, someone mentioned that last year, about the shortest day and earliest sunset/latest sunrise not being linear, with nothing lining up as you would expect...strange!
On 21 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Re what Stephen Parker wrote, its an interesting point. Last winter had extremes, this winter thus far had the 'bomb' and more to come but it isn't freezing. Laymen think 'cold' when they hear mini ice age circulation, not extremes. It is difficult to convince people that we are headed that way with conditions that aren't cold. If the real plunge in temps is from 2015 it would be good to try and get it out there and explain more to the mechanics of it all. It has been a strange month weatherwise, and a disappointing 'winter' thus far....
On 21 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
I had noticed the mornings have gotten very dark but never noticed that this goes on until new year === http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30549149
On 20 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 2... What the birds 'seem' to have been reacting to is the extreme ultraviolet flash from the sun and its associated
electromagnetic pulse (takes 8 minutes to reach earth). Many birds can see ultraviolet light. When the aurora died
down, the birds came back...ahem!
On 20 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Referring to the tiny birdies hearing tornado's two days before they formed (anyone else notice that error in the
story), the tornado's hit over three days from the 27th to the 30th of April 2014. Here's the BBC story >> http://bbc.in/1AlE3hb << The birds disappeared, "one or two days before the storms arrival". I've checked
spaceweather.com to see if there were any big solar flares over that period, and guess what? On the 25th was an X1.3 flare, just two days before the arrival of the tornado's. Strong aurora over the whole period. So the birds disappeared over the 25th & 26th but came back when the storms had gone. Another unexplainable occurrence from the people monitoring the birds, is 'how did the birds know' the storm had finished? Maybe they could also hear the tornado's dissipate. Lets face it, they were only 400 miles away! Honestly! Some of these stories are so full of errors and contradictions...doesn't anybody proof read anymore?
cont'd
On 20 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
More silliness as the one thing they'll not join the dots to is the location of undersea volcano's. Look at Greenland & Iceland, while noticing the way they obscure the polar regions... >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399073 <<
On 20 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Just 8hrs after a solar X-flare... >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30552123 <<
On 20 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Ouch!......>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30552123 << Big, large, huge, giant, small, medium....who knows?
On 20 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
http://news.sky.com/story/1395277/no-snow-area-alpine-slopes-worst-for-25-years
It must all be in Germany, India, Moscow, Japan, Korea or Turkey
On 20 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Heavy wind gusts, large and intense hail, dropping dew point (curr. 4C) and overall feeling much colder than previous days.
On 20 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Piers, thank you for the update above today, 20th. As a subscriber that's all i want if a period of extreme weather is not going to happen is to be informed. Its been a funny month weather wise hasn't it?, lovely sunny skies here now but a cold wind, i understand they have had some big snow in China and Eastern Europe.
If i understand correctly, 2015 is the year that the temperatures start to plunge for 30 years, why not do a post on it, im sure your readers would be fascinated, and it would open people up to the other work/research you do.
I would like to take this opportunity to wish you, your family and all the staff at Weatheraction a peaceful and happy Christmas
Regards Steve
On 20 Dec 2014, Robert-Michel (suscriber) wrote:
Hello Piers and the best for the Hollyday's. I'm from Montreal, Southern Quebec in Canada. Thanks for sharing all the infos and precious advices. Always pertinent and useful. I have a question about the Xtmas period coming and wonder if you have an answer . A lot of commotion here about a super meteorogical bomb supposed to explode near the Great Lakes, with heavy rain, wind, warmth, possible flooding, etc. Near the 24th and 25th... Media loves to exagerate events making ordinary weather ''historical'' or catastrophic. It's nonsense and dumb. Could you share your views on this upcoming storm and tell us how it might affect Southern Quebec. Thanks and cheers to you and your staff. ;)))
On 19 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Day 2 of pretty blustery weather with intermittent rain. Temps were positively balmy (nearly 10C) right up until the late afternoon, when the wind suddenly started to feel colder and picked up a lot. This evening around 8PM my partner returned 10 mins after heading out for a 13km ride towards an office X-mas party (on his bicycle, I mean, alcohol would be available ;-) stating he "just stood still" against the wind. I dropped him off in town and was pretty surprised at how quickly the wind had increased in strength. And how local it was, nearly absent in one place and very strong just 2km further on. The 'alarm central' site actually has something close to hurricane force winds predicted for tomorrow, where the other sites go for a max. of 9BF. All in all it's very obvious something is happening in the upper layers, feels to me like a cold front coming in very quickly. More models now going for snow around X-mas, oh and one predicting a real storm for the 28th. Pretty interesting stuff
On 19 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
CView - I'd say not really. Whilst flux was high last winter & NW Europe was warm & wet, the US was brutality cold. Roles could easily be reversed. It's about the set up when the sun applies the juice. This s/cycle is very stop/start ('confused'), as if revving the engine when stuck out of gear whilst travelling up & down hills. Some places will be fast, others slow. // Modelwise - Does look like a cold spell is on the way from next week which will likely bring snow further south than before even if it's just a brief flurry. The individual model runs are far from certain, flip flopping back and forth as we seem to have the same back and forth with polar & tropical air masses.
How long any cold lasts is *the* question as the NH pattern looks to be adjusting. Getting lasting cold (unless flux dramatically drops) may be hard just now. But I see winter (snow chances!) as Nov-Apr in the current phase of low solar activity & that polar vortex is unlikely to be so stubborn this year. :)
On 19 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Change again: although 2ºC on the thermometer at 7.30, the ground was frozen and stayed that way all day, very sunny most of the time, though I didn’t pay sufficient attention to see whether the sun was brighter than usual.. In any case, all the sun this month is a real blessing after the darkness of November. Max temp 3º, surprisingly still there at 9.30pm, apparently thawing, and precipitation showing on the MO radar pic, must be warm air flowing over the top of the Atlantic High.
On 19 Dec 2014, C View wrote:
Is it a given that a high SFU is a protector against extreme cold developing in temperate zones? I notice a MO warning now in place for wind and rain Sunday I presume driven by recent flare and CME
On 19 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Bob - The sun was blindingly bright today but I put that down to the clear skies after the overcast & wet before. Hmm. The sharp rise in flux is going to be interesting in how it plays out the coming days. I would expect the Atlantic to step up a gear again. One thing I've noticed over the past year is dramatic flux increases are drivers. Slow & steady rises or drops are not so easy to see effects - also smoothed monthly flux/ssn are useless. July this year when the US had a cold plunge were timed well with dramatic drop in activity. Jan & Mar 2013 in UK were timed with flux dropping-interestingly a lull in S/max between Dec 11-Dec13. The deep cold in SE Eng in early Feb 2012 timed with a flux drop & the rise in temps later in Feb as flux/ssn rose. It is not quite so simple - with inherent noise - but after last years winter here it may have taken this unusual solar cycle to clear the fog. Here's to hoping for a lull soon so we can get the cold weather into the UK.
On 19 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Yesterday when solar flux had ramped up so fast, I noticed how BRIGHT the sun was too. That always happens. Why? Because there is more energy in the light when flux goes up. There is more power entering our system from higher solar flux periods, and the longer it goes on, the more WORK it does on our system, and that is why there is more extreme weather during high solar periods, and less so during during low solar periods.
On 19 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Beautiful sunny day here 9* -cool in the wind though. The only travel disruption down here is people queuing for the supermarket car parks!
On 19 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset.UK sub wrote:
Ian wrote about piers clock had gone wonky it is his compass that needs re calibration ho ho ho. If you were relying on the December cast then you would have a hell of a lot of salt on your hands. Nice day here just sat down after washing the car and waiting for it to drain 11c and bright sunshine.
On 19 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Overnight wind & rain has cleared & it is dry and sunny. The overnight low was a rather toasty 12 degs but it is cooler now at 9 degs & I believe will cool down as the day proceeds, due to a more northerly airflow coming in.
On 19 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
correction: The USAF 7-day average for solar flux is 208... almost as high as Oct 21-27 when it averaged 212 sfu/day, when there were all those solar flares with no CMEs, and it warmed up significantly many places around the world, IIRC. Will it be a forecast maker or breaker? I'm not worried.
On 19 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
'Ice pancakes' found floating on the River Dee http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-30530281
On 19 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
See....I'm not a looney tunes....46 years observing birds, not a serious watcher but I find it a hugely enjoyable pastime. I've been saying this for decades and see the magnetic influence the catalyst. Birds hearing isn't adapted for extreme low frequencies as other animals are like whales or elephants for instance. Their hearing is tuned for high frequencies. Now go to spaceweather.com and seek out the date for the tornado swarm mentioned in the BBC article, then a few days before, and look for a solar flare or CME hitting our planet...then you'll see the truth of it! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30531060 <<
On 19 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
USA Dec 17-18 period Showers in OK per forecast, snowed briefly in KS & MO, where Piers depicted arctic cold air wrapping around west side of passing low. Was not very warm in N NM, but was under forecasted high pressure dome that stills persists east of Rockies. Some showers in WA per forecast. Missed rain in CA on 17th. Confirmed cold with powdery snow in upper MI, & cold across northern states generally. Snow in ME too per forecast. While it was a NSF/Q solar period with nominal solar wind, solar flux ramped up in recent days from sunspot activity, 198 SFI yesterday, 213 today, and USAF says next 7 days ave will be 182/day, peaking on Dec 20 at 225 (we'll see how good that is). The 213 reading was the official one at 20:00UTC, but 2 hours later, Penticton recorded a SFI of 261! This is the same exact area of the sun that blasted us with big SSNs, flux numbers & many flares from at least four full 27-day rotations (& counting...) Moon drawing cold air south; southern node on Monday
On 18 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
"but should not be used to obtain a precise weather reading at any one time or place. "... can't use meto for that and they get £100millions. anyone who relies on meto is blind more than 12 hrs out
On 18 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
6ºC at 7.30 and feeling mild; of course, if this was July I’d be complaining about the cold! Dark and cloudy start to the day, but gradually improving with great sunshine again, moderate wind from WSW mostly. All the ground frost gone, the earth is soft and wet again. 3º by 9pm and feeling colder in the strong W breeze. == Interesting interview with Tim Ball on Corbett Report http://bit.ly/13hTmuA, ‘lets the hot air out of the Lima climate deal’.
On 18 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
MetO Outlook has changed from yesterday "colder conditions then persist for most through Christmas Day and the following weekend with snow even to low levels at times in the north. There is a low probability of some more persistent rain crossing southern parts during the holiday weekend with a risk of snow on the leading edge. Otherwise in the following week there looks to be a gradual return to spells of wet and milder weather interspersed with colder, showery conditions. Generally windy for many throughout the period with risk of gales, these mainly in the northwest." // Models all of kerfuffle this evening. Believe MetO have severe cold as low probability however with Xmas still a week off expect the output to remain changeable. // Nigella - what I was trying to get across is that even when an f'cast is not exact or is quite wrong it can still be useful. When I started lurking here I had practically zero knowledge of wx let alone SLAT.
On 18 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Well, looks to be pretty non discript down here till the 22nd, conventional forecasters seeing cold xmas onwards, although it was 13* today it felt cold in the wind!
On 18 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Andy B - tucked in the MetO link === "All temperatures from observations have an uncertainty range of ± 0.1 °C so it is important not to read too much into the individual rankings for each year." *cough* //
I read a recent discussion looking at SSWs & in some cases the cold was already in place. THEY ARE NOT A COLD OR SNOW GUARANTEE folks (if the jet pushes cold air south it pushes warmth up also). Just because you ssw mentioned don't assume cold. The WA forecast explains this.
// Russ - not heard about warmth next Oct unless they are expecting atmospheric warmth from an El Ninõ? ot - I found this for Oct15 whilst looking === http://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reducing-and-managing-waste/supporting-pages/charging-for-single-use-plastic-carrier-bags === maybe they can claim after, as the solar cycle declines, that the policy worked to reduce global warming!! ;)
On 18 Dec 2014, Ian wrote:
I think it is fair to compare Piers forecasts to an old clock that runs too fast or too slow. His forecasts tell a good general forecast of the UK weather but should not be used to obtain a precise weather reading at any one time or place.
On 18 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
BBC yesterday, Wed 17th, said that a ski resort in, erm, somewhere in Europe had no snow and was worried about the coming season. No mention of record snowfall everywhere else on the planet....ok, UK excepted. >> http://bit.ly/16vf6Fp << ... How's yer pond Paddy? >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30528194 << ...Ground squirrels mean end of civilisation as we know it! It gets dafter! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30456869 << ... Environmentalists care for the environment, oh wait, no they don't! what they have done, via the BBC, is get their message on news media across the world; smart move! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30422994 << Massive amount of ancient water but didn't the IPCC say that water would become scarce in the near future? Looks like any future plans to fleece us for 'super expensive water' are scuppered!
>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30527357 <<
On 18 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. It is just shy of 14 degs here. I've had to turn all the heating off, as we were sweltering. Grey & overcast with spits & spots of light rain from time to time. Short term forecasts seem to be going for a brief interlude of cooler air over the weekend, then milder, then slightly cooler again. Can't see the appearance of any snow myself - but that's just my take on it.
On 18 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Craig - Thanks for that link, will look into it as soon as we here know whether we still have a government later today ;-) OT: rain, rain, rain, wind, more rain, temps over 10C. Interestingly here as well more models are tending towards cold and snow around Christmas and New Year. That in itself is - in my opinion - already a HUGE score on Piers' behalf as he predicted this way in advance. Now fingers crossed that the Weather Gods and Father Sun all favour Piers ;-)
On 18 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Models possibly now agreeing with the WA forecast for next week, looks interesting!
On 18 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Having said I'm weary of the cold idea (pattern reminds me of 09 still) I would love it to happen & far worse than modelled. Let it snow. Let it snow I say. // Saskia - Dec 1978 was the record flood I mentioned in Singapore. You'll be interested to know that 78/9 & 2009/10 have come up in quite a few analogues I've seen recently & in the lead up to winter. I wish I had the time to look into it properly but the MetO summaries from the time are quite illuminating === http://ow.ly/G4O4M === as are the various charts here === http://ow.ly/G4IDm === // Justin - ah ha! South coast says it all. I noticed the temps there were always a couple of degrees or so higher in the mostly NW flow. The sea keeps the temps up but if we get a channel low pulling in cold air then whoa can it deliver. Always a lottery with snow. In Dec 2010 I missed a red warning & another 6-8 inches by just a few miles.
On 18 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Ian Fergusson said this "the view remains a likely post-Xmas phase with high to W, trough to E; exact alignment of flow yet tbc but the EC 12z clusters from ca. 28th out to T+360 remain supportive of trough axis close to E (or even over) UK, with varied NW/NNW/N'ly solutions (and associated low centres) of varied 'potency' into that period. Broad-brush approach applies for now of course (worded as 'possible colder spells' or similar I'd imagine, which suffices until we can see some consensus and detail)." I quite like IanF but my respect dropped when he was on Twitter asking for parliament review of newspaper weather headlines (The Express). Curious he never said the same for drip feed of fear mongering CAGW headlines in Guardian/Independent etc. They are far worse as green policies kill the old, sick & poor - broadsheets are more subtle than their tabloid cousins but are ultimately far more vicious in their 'civilised' intolerance.
On 18 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
so Craig M (@craigm350 normal weather for the UK then
On 18 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
The models are indeed showing signs of a cold outlook coming in from ~Xmas day, however the MetO are not going to say much until it comes into a more reliable timeframe but have said prev there is a signal for blocking around Greenland. It's a signal to watch & can change. They have only said the cold/warm (mild in Sth) yoyo (battle) looks to continue. Unless there is a particularly strong signal the outlook after ~5days tends to revert to average. === "[After Boxing Day until NY Eve], it is thought it will be generally windy throughout with further spells of wet and mild weather, interspersed with colder, showery conditions. Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north." === So until something more concrete & near term MetO not going to buy 'cold'. Models often 'go on one'. They will prob only say something after weekend.
On 17 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
4ºC at 7.30, total change. Even though it had rained heavily last night and the temperature rose, there was still frost on the grass in sheltered parts of our wood. NW’ly breeze but feeling mild for the time being; however, very icy and slippery ground all day, in spite of temps rising to 6º. Mostly quite sunny and pleasant, 1º by 9pm, tulip pots frosting again (there a bit of a bellwether for me). == Heard from a friend tonight who travelled up to Inverness last Friday 12th that by the time they got to Elgin it was snowing & snow was lying, so here was one locality where WA forecast was ‘correct’; I had told him about possible/probable events in December and he thought that Piers was spot on regarding the cold.
On 17 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote:
A very wet night last night and a warm (13), cloudy day today. It's amazing the difference in temperatures between yesterday and today. It only reached 4 degrees yesterday and managed 9 degrees higher today! Crazy!
On 17 Dec 2014, Asim wrote:
I do think piers your accuracy is still far better then any other forecaster.. Ok you didn't Nail the December forecast.. Everyone can make some errors.. I hope we get to build a snow man in the London area.. Fingers cross..
On 17 Dec 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
quite a bit of snow over the last few days and last night before it got milder today. but a far cry from the horrors of 2008 to 2011. Still, we are only half way or so into the first month of official winter. Been hearing rumours from the green brigade of projected warmth for October 2015---anyone else heard this.?
On 17 Dec 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Met Office going with a warmest year since 1880 for 2015
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
On 17 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
I have a lot of travel planned between now & the end of the month - for which I blame Christmas entirely! ;-) Is there still confidence for 19th onwards?
On 17 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Its me again.....Met Office are working overtime! Another blog (!) this time about the prospects of a white Christmas. After the usual blather, they dont know and remind us that long range forecasting is difficult (we know), and to look at their guess site on a daily basis.
Now for the news we have all been waiting for: man is not totally to blame for global warming!!!! Thats right, its GROUND SQUIRRELS!!!! Yes, ground squirrels have caused far more global warming than was realised. So........they cant be taxed so expect to see them in your local supermarket soon!
On 17 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Met office are busy bees today! Another blog release.....this time telling us what the global temp increase will be for next year! Looking forward to another year of manipulated figures, cherry picked to make sure that figure is reached.....
On 17 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Lots of rain overnight & currently 13 degs, with a hint of blue sky & clouds scudding past on the westerly wind. Craig you make some very good points & it may be that some repositioning is required by WA, perhaps we are not buying forecasts but general event forecasts. I am not a scientist, let alone a meteorologist, so I look at the pictures on the forecasts & the description that goes with them. If what is described doesn't materialise, then I tend to take the very simplistic view that the forecast is wrong. I only get 30 days B&I, as I'm not really interested in mainland Europe. What I'm really interested in is the weather that will impact on my own life. I'm sure I can't be the only person who takes this rather straightforward view. I'll continue to support WA, as I think there is something in it and I want it to succeed but it may be to get wider purchases some thought should be given to positioning.
On 17 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Richard - I presume when the MetO blog is talking about records it is only interested in certain ones and wouldn't dare mention the current record antarctic ice anomaly, or all the snow and cold records that have been set in the US over the last few weeks or any of the other earliest, heavyist snow fall records set recently. Unless of course it is to claim 'proof' of its 'make ice cubes in the microwave' theory where global warming causes snow, ice and cold. While having a bonfire on Sunday afternoon with a mate, we both reckon we had the lightest of snow flakes fall. Pub quiz question this week, how many Christmas Days have been white in the last 100yrs (defined by a flake on London Weather Centre roof) We (me really) guessed 9 and the answer was 11.
On 17 Dec 2014, Alister wrote:
When poacher and gamekeeper is the same person, that's a problem.
On 17 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Morning Piers....morning all. Met Offices latest blog bangs on about how many weather records have been set over the years. Makes interesting reading if only to imagine the straw clutching going on. They are determined that the UK will have a mild winter.....their current long range guess sorry, forecast, is back to mild wet and average to above average temps.....of course, now there are no auxiliary weather stations that are manually operated, they can say what they like as few people will see what information has been collected. Anyone can make numbers say what they want them to say.
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