Comments from Piers
Going to parts other forecasters cannot reach!
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR +44(0)207939 9946 From Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320 email@example.com www.weatheraction.com Twitter @Piers_Corbyn
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Report of WeatherActionMeeting 22 Feb - Britain+Ireland+Eu UPDATE
Piers Corbyn gave a summary Winter report (Brit+Ire+Eu + USA + key world aspects) to the WeatherAction meeting which discussed WeatherAction advances and likely developments in the closing days of February, VIDEO COMING.
Piers said that the first summary forecast of February did not have a burst of Spring in the last few days but an ongoing cold spell and that the question was never easy. He said:
1. "The transition period ie weekend+Monday 23/24/25 to milder would NOT happen but it would stay cold.
2. "The more explicit Burst Of Spring 26-28th might still be in with a half chance - despite what standard models say - in Ireland / West parts becasue the R5 from 27th will force the high pressure Eastwards. However he said "Our 45day forecast has a cold start to March so there is not the time for more than a 2 day weak 'burst'.
NB the last 11 days of any month for any 30d service is enabled for subscription to the next month and free acces to the current month
Significant Red Level R3 22-23 Feb events US, UK+Eire + Eu / News and updates
=> USA Winter Keeps on Coming
Major Snow/blizzards in central parts (including Arizona) moving to Great Lakes on early part of R3 (+/-1day) 21st & 22nd http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21546916
More snow North/East this weekend 23/24th http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/foot-of-snow-for-part-of-new-england/6654310 Not as bad as 8-9Feb great blizzard says Accuweather report which CONFIRMS WeatherAction forecast for 22-25 Feb issued 30Jan which includes "Strong (nb typo as 'Spring' in pdf) flow of cold air from Canada..." and "Heavy snow in North Central parts and over most of Great Lakes. Some thundersnow..." The rain-snow mix in parts forecast by WeatherAction is also confirmed in this AccuW report and VIDEO (the upper one in the article the lower being superceded).
The next USA weather period 26Feb to 3 Mar is very important and includes a Red Top Level 5 (R5) period. The USA rest of Feb-into March forecast is not subject to the special news/update of UK+Eire+Eu (see below) and is available FREE NOW to new and existing subscribers to March (and note 6months of sub is 17% off and 12 months is 25% off) via http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp
On subscribing (as for Eu, UK+Eire etc you get immediate access to the Feb forecast and on Mar1st (not 28th Feb because forecasts for Feb go to Mar3)
=> Extreme rain in Greece and Sicily 22nd and snow in UK 22nd confirm WeatherAction detail
WeatherAction Euromaps carries Warning over Greece and South Italy and Sicily "heavy rain espec 22/23" which is confirmed to the day from 3 weeks ahead - see astounding footage:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21544352 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21553503
The UK snow 22/23rd ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 ) is despite rather low-snow airflow but the R3 gives extra and confirms. WeatherAction forecast which highlighted the NorthEast from 3 weeks ahead while the MetOffice warning is more of an extended nowcast / one day ahead.
Other events around the world ~22-23rd are also likely expressions of this R3:
Japan record snow this winter http://www.http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2013-02/22/content_28031869.htm
MASSIVE snowstorm NE Japan ~R3 period 22-23Feb. World events
UK+Eire+ Europe. That new cold blast came on cue Weds 20th. Then what?
You need the interesting last 10 days of Feb Forecast!
AND MARCH 15-45day ahead forecast for UK+Eire
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=> Feb now & March (on 28Feb) 30d B+I forecast & recent updates inclusive and
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1. Feb 5th and ongoing Comment post.
Breaking News snips (newest on top)
Ongoing See Latest snow and all reports coming in from Observers in Reader Comments below main text
17/18 Feb LATEST: USA New Nor'easter Forecast Tremendous success
=> WeatherAction Long range forecast map issued end Jan and the blizzard storm that came
Popular Retweet twitpic.com/c4d7xq/full
Piers posted on Accuweather Reports:-
GREAT! Perhaps I shouldn't say that but this Powerful Nor'easter 16/17 FEB confirms our WeatherAction-USA and edges of Canada (solar activity based) long range forecast map from over 2wks ahead - see http://twitpic.com/c4d7xq
The storm came at the latter end of our 13-17th warning period and those who had our forecast were forewarned and forearmed ahead of others. Importantly we warned of:-
(i) "RAPID increase in activity and storminess. Low in East moves NE and DEEPENS RAPIDLY.
(ii) Seriously disruptive and dangerous blizzards.....
The speed of deepening was why standard short range Meteorology had so many uncertainties before getting this one right. In the end it was a VERY deep dangerous event - Pressure down to 958 mb at YHZ (Halifax) that's 28.31 (info on twitter) and as @NEweatherHQ said "Just Imagine If This Storm Had Been Closer To The Coast"! We were right at WeatherAction to identify this as potentially more dagerous than the previosus great blizzard (which was from a system also in our long range forecast but with expected lower intensity in meteorological terms than we expected for this one). There was serious disruption anyway but far worse was just missed.
Its track into a serious event in Atlantic Canada follows from our long range forecast map.
Please see http://bit.ly/WTl07A for further information. THERE ARE MORE SERIOUSLY DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORMS AND BLIZZARDS still to come in WeatherAction.com Long Range forecasts.
Thanks Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist and long range forecaster http://
Feb 15+16th (evening 15th gmt & Reader Comms Sat 16th) USA THE NEW NOR-EASTER COMETH - confirming WeatherAction prediction issued 30Jan
Accuweather: Feb 15, 2013; 3:46 PM ET (20.46 Gmt) Weekend: East Coastal Snowstorm, Maine Blizzard "Just when things were getting back to normal another snow storm will hit New England - and for this one Atlantic Canada - Late Saturday into Sunday.": (16-17th) http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snowstorm-to-hit-part-of-i-95/6153092 and more superb maps via http://climaterealists.com/11154
Piers Corbyn says "This is more 'We told you so' forecasting news. New Englanders must prepare again. The AccuWeather Video suggests ten inches of snow over a wide area. We expect more so it will be interesting to see how much comes. Of course this will make snowdrifts feet deep under any of the estimates of snowfall coming.
This storm, like the last one, was predicted in our forecast issued Jan30 under our Solar-Lunar Action Technique and is nothing to do with CO2. Yet you can bet the NewYork Times will lie and lie again claiming it justifies their anti-science CO2 warmism and tax hikes. They prefer to see their readers suffer in the name of a delusional quasi-religion than admit scientific advance and use it to give longer warnings to the citizens of NE USA"
Feb 15 #RussianMeteor Report
Dash cam: Amazing VIDS http://on.rt.com/izs5e3 ; http://rt.com/news/chelyabinsk-meteorite-witness-report-285/ PiersCorbyn, astrophysicist, was interviewed live on RussiaToday TV News which started about 14.00gmt (Piers was on about 14.10), he said it was indeed a major event and a larger international effort is needed to watch out for these things comimg and predict impacts. "Although these objects are small in size such detection could become possible", he said.
Feb 15 UK-Eire-Eu News
Standard Models are showing the UK mild burst continuing to ~ Mon 18th and a "beast from the East" (see CraigM reader Comm below) coming in on ~Tue19th. Piers Corbyn said "If this is confirmed it's excellent news. Our graph detail in our 30day forecast issued 3 weeks ahead shows a mild burst ~18+19th followed by a cold plunge starting ~20th. The mild burst came - starting early ~14th/15th (in some parts) and eroding the blizzardy-snow burst which arrived on 13th on time, and looks like finishing a day earlier than our forecast. Then our predicted very cold and snowy plunge comes in a day early. These events are in our 'give or take a day' normal errors.
"An interesting question is why the snowy-blizzardy hit was cut short while the USA cold blast we predicted for within the same ~13-17th period looks like coming on cue. Although the R5 13-16 contains various sub-factors which may have somewhat different impacts on differemt continents the presence of that 'Nemo blizzard' remant which was still a significant storm hastened the end of the cold spell certainly in the North, while the cold held on longer in the South.
Feb 15 USA Report The New Nor-Easter is coming 17th, confirming WeatherAction USA!!
"The short range forecast maps are now clear. The VERY intense system we predicted for this time window (13-17, associated with our R5 13-16th) is coming, despite the confusion in the models about this event. This is great news and an embarrasment for 'doubters'. See excellent maps coverage on ClimateRealists", said Piers: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=11154
Feb 14 USA Report
The Blizzard-storm WeatherAction predicted for NE USA in 13-17Feb period (R5 13-16, which has already given us blizzards UK) now looks like being 'ON' although there are model uncerianties. See great video by AccuWeather via
Feb 13th (+14th**) Br+Eu SNOW & BLIZZARDS REPORTS & NEWS.
See also Reader Comms below which include:
- Snow news as snow blows and drifts
- Further Comms from Piers on what next, obs of snow and stratosphere etc
- Great reader comms on the latest Met Model switches
21:00 WeatherAction long range +Update (6 days ahead) CONFIRMED.
OBSERVER REPORTS AND COMMENTS from parts of UK** show UK COLD+SNOW PERSISTED longer in some places than MO 12hr ahead forecast.
** For Reports see Reader-Observer Comments below. THANK YOU to all those who sent in
WeatherAction 8 Feb (6day ahead) update circulated to subscribers was:
Piers Corbyn said "This is an excellent result for both the general picture in our 4 week ahead forecast of NE/SW contrasts and our 6 day ahead update which observers report in terms of snow and cold is remarkably accurate and appears better than the MetOffice 12 hr ahead view in areas in the Midlands/South - in terms of extent south and it being slow to get milder in eg the South (and East). North parts got milder fast" (See Observer reports in Comments below)
** (14 Feb) BBC Pic Report Snow Cheadle Staffs on 13 Feb: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21454516
"The remnant of storm 'Nemo' which enhanced the blizzards in USA helped bring more blizzardy conditions in the UK when it crossed tha Atlantic. People may wonder how it was that the remnants of 'Nemo' arrived on time to do their job in our R5 period. The answer (and such 'coincidences' for rain-wind storms have happened before) is that the R5 opens (in this case) the Atlantic door for any such systems which happen to be around. Something would have come in whatever but probably a lesser attack would have taken longer allowing cold and snow to hang around more.
As it was in some parts observers reported more snow (further South eg) than MO and cold (or/and) snow hanging around longer that TV forecasts - see observer input in blog*
*eg from Rohan (E London) twice, Mike (Keighley), Chris Lee (Kineton), Sakia Steinhorst (Fryslan N Holland), Nino (Gent Belgium) , Malcolm (York), Nick Stoneman re Met office late warning 08.53am on 13th which moved snow warning boundaries 120 miles South.
The note from Nick is important because the Met Office themselves extended the warning south of what they originally said confirming our suggestion of greater activity/extent than their 12/24hr original forecast would say .
Snow in Maidstome is evidence of that shift also although we did not say the SE would or woulnt be inclded in an expansion of the snow area towards SW from the N/E, but it logically would not reduce such a risk. The extra cold and snow in nearby Europe - Netherlands and Belgium (which is nearer to Kent than Kent is to York) - which was also warned in our Euro-update and general points about R5s might be part of what happened in Kent. Kent was also snow free in the MO/Netweather snow accumulation forecast map - link just below.
"Note, of course, WeatherAction LONG Range forecasts are for events to happen during a period not all the time and given the 'battleground' nature of this snow/blizzard event it could not easiliy go on for long.Thanks"
11.00 HEAVY SNOW/blizzards most UK. Snow map from Netweather snowaccum2.png http://ow.ly/i/1vYNy - forecasts almost a foot in places
08.30 gmt HEAVY blowy SNOW now hitting N & Central UK CONFIRMING WeatherAction forecast of 4 weeks ago to the day. Useful reports in Retweets via https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn
Handy map from Laura Tobin: pic.twitter.com/ALP0Q6fQ Rain here includes snow. NI & N Eire also seeing heavy precip
Prospects for coming Extreme weather period ~13th-17th Feb
USA AccuWeather forecast now similar to WeatherAction LongRange USA forecast issued 30Jan:
UK+Ire+NW Europe Standard short range forecasts are showing snow prospects early in the period.
Further Warning of dangerous snows-blizzards both sides of Atlantic for R5 etc period ~13-17th Feb (R5 is 13-16, associated weather period is 13-17)
The further warnings WeatherAction issued to subscribers on Feb 8th of enhanced extreme blizzards and snow events both sides of Atlantic 13-17th Feb is repeated and made available to public via Climate Realists by Agreement:
blizzarded stuck! A snow jam of cars http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65802000/jpg/_65802815_cars_snow_ap.jpg
"The ~Feb9th Blizzard NE USA - Evidence of the Solar-Lunar driver of weather and climate and the start of the new Mini Ice Age; nothing to do with CO2 - Current Weather Commentary.
The otherwise good BBC coverage of the dramatic blizzard in NE USA, especially Boston, was spoiled by the pathetic delusional warmist cross Atlantic bleating - begging - by the BBC commentator interviewing a blizzard victim "Oh Isn't THIS Unusual? How unusual? (Reply 'We are used to them, they have happened quite often before'); Oh yes but THIS one IS EXTREME isn't? (or words to that effect) (Reply er Yes It's a lot of snow here). Now here we see the weasly CO2 sect game: Go to the worst affected part of any weather event and twist someones arm to say its extreme (for me) and thereby bolster the oft repeated (Goebbels rules) lie elsewhere on BBC that ALL weather extremes are getting more extreme and it's all caused by CO2.
The ACTUAL FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS of the USA NE blizzard of Feb 8-9th are revealing and important.
1. Such USA NE blizzards happen regularly and come in cycles explained by Piers Corbyn's Solar-Lunar weather and climate driver theory.
Joe Bastardi the USA's top Met Model Monitor and weather wise guy shows a list of the ten most similar world pressure patterns to Feb8-9th 2013 on record and notes 5 of them were in the 1950's. The average date 1954 is 59 years ago and thereby in line with SLAT theory of Solar-magnetic and lunar nodal beat periods of ~59yrs (for sunspot cycle 11.05 yrs). NB we notice the NE blizzards of 2010-2011 (eg Boxing Day 2010 and 31 jan/1Feb simultaneous with TC Yasi Queensland) are not on the list, although similar they maybe were in a different world pattern:
2. THIS was nevertheless extreme as such blizzards go and that supports the expectation of more extreme extremes as the world moves into a new Mini Ice Age (aka Little Ice Age) .
This event was similar in terms of colliding Low pressure systems (mild wet coming from Gulf moving NE meeting COLD system from W/NW) to Hurricane Sandy which in turn was half similar to Irene which did not meet a (cold) Low from W/NW. The possibility for such collisions increases as the jet stream thrashes about more and more when it is further South in a generally colder climate as in Mini (aka Little) Ice Ages.
3. The implications are
(i) There will be more of these extreme blizzards in NE USA in coming 7 years (SLAT ~60yr cycle)
(ii) They will be generally MORE NUMEROUS AND EVEN MORE EXTREME than those of ~60 years ago (due to start of mini ice age)
(iii) There will be more Hurricane Sandy type very destructive storms (summer and Autumn events) hitting NE USA coast in the coming decade or two (due to start and developing mini ice age and resulting jet streanm meanders)
(iv) These events (and related such as Irene) and corresponding events on sun will increasingly be predicted by Piers Corbyn's Solar Lunar Action Technique
(v) They are nothing to do with CO2 but as long as the deluded CO2 warmist sect remains un-destroyed the New York Times and BBC and Governments of USA and UK will continue to fail to give solar-based long range warnings (of USA or related UK events) to the public and will contune to put defence of the warmist delusion before protecting the lives and well-being of citizens.
Feb 9th 2am gmt = 9pm Feb 8th USA EST
- Direct observer reports from NE USA in blizzard in Reader Comms at foot of this blog - video links and reports via twitter https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn
One of first reports taken off comms becuase original link length excessive, from Sue of Indiana 9 Feb - THANKS - sent links: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-douglas/tracking-winterstorm-nemo_b_2646829.html
http://yhoo.it/12aqxxv (short form) Boston with Vid of results of 2ft of snow
Special 'Current & Coming Weather Commentary-Updates' have been issued by WeatherAction for Britain+Ireland, Europe and USA
FORECAST UPDATE pdfs have been released in their respective subscriber areas. Some key points:
.FOR BRIT-IR The colder than expected in UK current period 8-10th, with warm sectors closing and shifting south sooner than in Long Range, means cold weather without much of a break is likely to continue through imminent weather periods, so the major snow-blizzard period next week will be even more snowy, blizzardy and dangerous in Britain and Ireland.
FOR N/W Europe a similar enhancement of snow & Blizzard danger in next weeks snow-blizzard period.
FOR USA The implications are also that the simultaneous (with Europe) snowy-blizzardy period next week will be enhanced and NE USA will be hit again next week by another blizzard as bad or even more dangerous in some prts than the enormous thunder-snow-blizzard hitting NE USA on Feb 8-9th.
FULL DETAILS and dates are on pdfs posted into Brit+Ire, Eu and USA subscriber areas.
To subscribe to these long range forecasts with these updates see below or go direct to:
Sun – Stratosphere – Weather – Earthquake associated events confirm WeatherAction end Jan early Feb forecasts
● Earth-Facing Coronal Holes, Sudden warming of the Polar Lower stratosphere; 9 major earthquakes all confirm WeatherAction solar-geophysical forecasts
● Blizzards UK, USA and Europe confirm WeatherAction weather forecasts
● Timing of WeatherAction Top Extreme R5+ (weather) and QV5+ (quake+ Volcano) warning periods confirmed
Detailed news / links below (some from previous blog posting)
And still the deluded Global warmists prattle on ‘It’s CO2!’
(Feb 4 & 5th) Latest Short Range maps look similar to key aspects of WeatherAction maps issued 6 weeks ahead:
Meteogroup forecast for Monday ~4th:
MetOffice latest Obs and short range forecast maps for Tue 5th :
Get ahead of the Weather:
Latest Forecasts Available for FEB Brit + Ireland, Europe, USA
Brit+Ire 30day Feb - wild contrasts & extremes - 6 pages
USA Feb - Wild extremes and contrasts, 10 pages
Europe Feb Region details Maps - Contrasts & Extremes, 9 pages
Europe (+Br+Ir) Possible Pressure scenarios 10 pages** this month
on the EuroMaps service AND on the Br+Ir 45d service
'RTQ' ('Extreme Events Rest Of World') - Red weather periods, Thunder.tornado, Quake risk) is available in services: World Extreme Events / RTQ, B+I 45d, Eu Maps. 'ALL Forecasts'
**This month Eu maps includes first period map issued end Dec for information to show N'ly blast expected.
Br+Ir, USA and Eu foreacst pdfs include news/research reports
B+I 30d is available on B+I 30d, B+I 45d and 'All forecasts' Services
Each of the 8 B+I forecast periods has a 'traffic light' red=some dangers/probs Green=not many probs
● (1 Feb) PERFECT! Earth facing Coronal Holes (EFCH) pair
http://bit.ly/XYg8ht (via SpaceWeather site http://bit.ly/WFCu7e ) confirming WeatherAction RTQ* forecast "Earth facing Coronal holes &/or Active regions likely near central longitude solar disc 31 Jan – 1Feb"
(*RTQ = Red Weather, Thunder/Tornadoe and Quake (trial) risk, aka/in (Rest of) World Extreme Events forecast).
● NINE!! M6.0+ (two M6.5+) quakes in QV5+ (30Jan to 2Feb) Quake trial warning period (associated with R5+ 30Jan to 3Feb)
Piers says "This SLA8C R5+ period and associated QV5+ are giving amazing results:
The - all associated - and predicted: EFCH, Sudden Lower polar Stratosphere Warming, wild waves in the jet stream, major Arctic blasts (developing) in B+I/Europe and USA, serous difficulties in standard forecasting techniques and (a swarm of) major Earthquakes around the world have ALL been confirmed. This is tremendous vindication of the power of our Solar Lunar Action Technique".
He added: "The idea that changes in atmospheric CO2 levels from 0.03% to 0.031% have any effect on any of these associated events - predicted by Solar-based techniques - is delusional nonsense beyond belief."
● There have been brilliant supportive comments from Joe Bastardi and others on twitter concerning our WeatherAction lower stratosphere warming and related cold bursts - USA and Europe/BI. Thank you to all. Hear Joe!
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
@Piers_Corbyn has no peer in the stratosphere. Warming BELOW 10/30 mb tool just as big a key. Shades of 2010 pic.twitter.com/piHCSNzM
WeatherAction Solar Factors warnings and corrections to short range standard forecasts as Arctic winds blast into Britain in (later part of) WeatherAction forecasted active period
- late Jan to ~5 Feb
Piers said and says again: "The Northerly winds shown are very like our WeatherAction Possible Pressure scenario map covering the period (available to Euromap and B+I 45d subscribers). BBC-MetO on TV Thurs 30th in evening said it was extremely difficult to forecast the coming snow extent (upgraded from 'wintry showers). We warned they would run into severe difficulties this (and next) month - especially in our R5 periods and this has been born out in the last few days – with standard Met forecasts only coming around to lining up with WeatherAction 12 / 24hr ahead!
" WeatherAction solar factors warning of how standard model TV forecasts are likely to need amending in our R5+ period Jan31 to Feb3 and R3 Feb4th. This applies to Brit+Ire, Europe or USA equally.:
1. All frontal activity will be significantly more than 12 or 24 hr ahead forecasts so winds will be stronger and rain / snow will be 2 or 3 times what MO expect - so double or treble snow depths forecasted espec in R5 period
2. Because the whole system will power-up beyond MO expectation the Arctic air will be faster moving and won't have time to warm up over sea. Therefore snow will be more extensive and go further South than standard projections.
3. The wind and snow - likely THUNDERSNOW - in the blizzards - will make SUBSTANTAIL SNOW DRIFTING
4. Air, Water, Road and Rail transport will all be considerably disrupted and there will be WIND DAMAGE."
● BLIZZARD REPORTS from Bolton and Scotland confirm these warnings– See Reader Comms below
2. Recent News / Regular WeatherActionTV reports:
& 3. WeatherAction forecast information and Standard Links
Please see previous blogs
4. READERS COMMENTS & FEEDBACK:
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