On 22 Feb 2013, Alla wrote:
My kids (6&5 at the moment) and that is the age they enter shoocl, are fully equipped to understand fantasy and reality.I have been teaching them how to distinguish that since about 3. My kids watch TV. They read books, so they need to understand the difference.I think most of us don't give kids enough credit. They are smarter than we think and often surprise us at what they are capable of. If anything I have learned as a mom it's not to underestimate my kids.Thank you for your references, I will look them up and review them.@Becca Never fear, It doesn't sound harsh at all. Let me let you know where I got the idea:Atheism is technically a religion as defined by anthropology.All religions have seven dimensions Narrative, experiential, social, ethical, doctrinal, ritual and material.See(Dimensions of the sacred: an anatomy of the world’s beliefs, by N.Smart)The Narrative describes where the Universe came from, the atheist uses Darwin's theory of evolution to fulfill the Narrati
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On 05 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
Congratulations are in order Piers. I just checked both the 45 day and 30 day forecasts and you were 100% accurate with either the 4th on the 45 day or th 5th on the 30 day coming good. It's already dropped over two inches (60mm) and the rain radar just shows bits of precipitation. I look to the north and see a huge dollop of something falling, and it's coming our way. 8:15am it was passing Glasgow but at 10am it had already reached Cumbria. This could be a day to build Polar bears as a poster did down in Dorset. A new style of snowman for the Little Ice Age. We'll build them in memory of Al Gores new book 'The Future'. Yes Al, the future is looking all WHITE!
On 05 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Justin. I'm very glad if my comments helped. As I put in my post to ASIM "I found the forecasts confusing initially. The trick is to read the whole thing, rather than just the headlines or just the maps in isolation." Sorry if that's repetitious - thought I'd copy it here in case it can help any new people reading this post. Weather, 7 miles north of Carmarthen, West Wales, @300 ft (90 m) asl @ 9.50: Just had a "snail" (soft white snowy hail) shower. Nice in the pale sunshine but cold and windy with a lot of cloud. Roll on summer!
On 05 Feb 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Mark: yes we have been getting persistent, heavy snow showers with strong winds( it'a a bit calmer now) since yesterday morning. The griitters have been busy and the local access is not too bad. With the wind going north tomorrow, we'll get a bit more shelter, but Drumochter and Dunkeld will most likely catch it.
On 05 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Ha, just as I clicked ‘submit’ on my last comment, the snow started falling here! Small flakes but on account of the frost it’s sticking right away.
On 05 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Aberdeen south area: nice crisp frost this morning, -2˚C at 7.30, wispy clouds illuminated by the soon-to-rise sun, no snow, but plenty in many other parts of Scotland according to the news and reports from Mark, Ron & Gfunk. Watching the Low north of us, which looks as if it will slip down into the North Sea, followed by winds straight from the N Pole. The Greenland High I so obsess about (it’s ok, I’m seeing someone about that :-)) looks like it’s finally going to make its entrance stage left.
On 05 Feb 2013, Justin wrote:
@Nick Stoneman _ thanks for your reply and input. I was actually referring to the Great Blizzards period and not Major Blizzards as I stated earlier...my bad!! Can't explain that mistake!! I accept what you have said and have referred back to the forecasts and I think it was looking at the POSSIBLE (I know they are only possible) pressure charts and I guess I was , like you say "misinterpreting them" and with the other info on Jan 45d and 30d as well as Feb 454d forecasts I was perhaps adding 2 and 2 and getting 5. Also William Downi, gfunkasaurus, Steve,Dorset thanks for your responses, you have helped clarify some aspects and provided me with some thinking to do. It'll help me answer some of the critics/skeptics I speak to. Like I said I am learning slowly!! :>} Paradigm changing stuff this!
On 05 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ ASIM. Please read my 2 comments - 4 and 6 BELOW yours. I think they answer your question. I found the forecasts confusing initially. The trick is to read the whole thing, rather than just the headlines or just the maps in isolation. Hope this helps.
On 04 Feb 2013, Mark wrote:
Nice little blizzard here in Bolton now and starting to stick, we've had gales, thunder lightning and snow hail, heavy rain and now heavy snow ...what a night, well done Piers
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
As stated in my earlier post, at about midday the Met Office had no severe weather warnings for today (Mon 4th) through to Fri 8th for Wales on their website. At 18.45 they issued the following warning for tomorrow, Tues 5th: "Valid from - 05 Feb 2013, 00:05, Valid to - 05 Feb 2013, 11:00 Wintry showers and strong winds will continue in many areas overnight, although some clearer spells will develop in the south and east. Surfaces will remain wet from earlier showers and from continued showers of rain, sleet and snow, allowing ice to form. Localised accumulations of 2-5 cm of snow are possible outside of the separate snow warning areas, particularly in the west, (chiefly above 200 metres in the southwest). The public should be aware of the risk of icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements." So they could not see this coming 12 hours ahead. Indeed they only issued their alert 5 hours 20 minutes ahead! Yet Piers warned of this weather on 20th December! Piers, you're a genius!
On 04 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Aberdeen area: Max temp 4˚C, strong W wind, lots of brilliant sunshine, no snow here but plenty snow showers over most of Scotland and by evening most of Britain. MO suddenly cooking lots of yellow snow, tomorrow and Wed, yum. In plain English: they are suddenly issuing yellow & even orange warnings, 6 weeks late, Russ, as usual :-) They didn’t say anything about tomorrow and Wed yesterday.
On 04 Feb 2013, gfunkasaurus wrote:
Justin, read Piers post above on the 27th where he does admit a blip in that the mild was slightly milder and slightly longer than anticipated and that the goalposts had been moved a bit. Where I live in Clackmannanshire we are genearal protected by the Ochil hills from snowy northerly weather usually suffered by Perthshire and above. These past few years have been a different story and Piers has pretty much called it every time. Today-4th feb, I left Glasgow @4pm, sleety snow falling bitter v. strong wind. Got back to Clacks at 6.30pm(b*%%*&!ing public transport) light snow shower, bit of clear sky then a 15min blizzard that left 2-3cm. Next, clear sky for an hour followed by a light shower for a bit and now at 10pm its would be a white out if the flakes were bigger. Going from the netweather radar and the MO satellite its going to be the same story for the rest of the evening and probably tomorrow. Remember its only the 4th!
On 04 Feb 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
MO have issued severe weather warning of Snow across most of UK tomorrow including south and SW. Telegraph Headline online: "Snow and Gales from Greenland to cause chaos"
On 04 Feb 2013, ASIM wrote:
I just wanted to know as it said in the forecast for major Blizzards or even snow, Well have not got any of this yet in the se england.. did i miss something? Can someone explain ? as i bought the jan and feb forecast??
On 04 Feb 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
What regions and land surface area of the UK has to get snow, before this is considered relevant?
On 04 Feb 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
My spelling is terrible, that last post should have been Artic, not Arctic! Or is it Arctic? I need schooling again. Anyway it is a lorry. Lol. Watching the BBC Scotland News at 1836 a man reporting from the A9 road, stunning snowfall, is it near yourself Ron Greer, we are getting similar now as well.
On 04 Feb 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Hi Piers and all, Sunday was a wild day with temps fluctuating between minus 4c and +4c, strong westerly wind, cloudy sky, rain, sleet and snow on and off all day. Monday the 04th, today, was scary driving the arctic doing my deliveries, Forth road bridge was closed to all high vehicles due to gail force winds, temps this morning were a crazy +5c and it still snowed on and off, by the afternoon temps dropped to 0c with a howling wind that could blow you off your feet. Now as off 1800hrs there is a major snow blizzard occuring and the snow is lying everywhere, this is the big snow and it is accumulating rapidly, if temps stay down while this snow falls all night Bathgate, Scotland traffic will be gridlock in morning. Whats it like up North Ron, Paddy in the Perth, Aberdeen area.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Justin. I should add that I agree with you that the forecast misses are as important as the forecast hits, and both should be discussed. But a lot of misses appearing in these comments over the years have been simple misunderstandings and or mis-readings of the forecasts. I have suggested in the past that Piers re-emphasise the importance of users 1) reading the whole forecast in detail, 2) allowing + or - 24 hours as mentioned on the forecast, 3) allowing reasonable variation in position of borders between weather areas, 4) remembering that 75% accuracy translates into 1 quarter of any forecast being wrong! Those actual errors (rather than apparent ones caused by mis-reading the forecasts) are the ones we should be discussing here.
On 04 Feb 2013, William Downie wrote:
Justin et al, it might help in this discussion about the accuracy of WeatherAction's forecasts if you considered the synoptic charts, which show the locations of the high and low pressure systems around the UK. If they are getting those right, and I think they are a lot of the time, then they have a made a major breakthrough in long-range weather forecasting. If you, say, don't get snow when it was forecast in a particular area, it might look as if the forecast was 'wrong', when in fact they have the general synoptics right or nearly right but the detail is a little out.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Justin. I've just looked at the maps on my copies of the 30 day ahead forecasts for January and February and I see no mention at all of major blizzards for the south coast or Dorset areas. What makes you think Piers forecast major blizzards for those areas? The only mention of major blizzards I can find is in the headlines of the forecasts. If that confused you then please read the whole forecast, as it reminds you on every copy. The headline is just that - a headline. It does NOT mean major blizzards for the whole county and/or the whole month - that's what the maps are for - to fill in the detail for individual areas and individual time periods. And for heavens sake, it's only the 4th of Feb. Let's see what actually happens rather than jumping to conclusions - that's like saying because a baby cannot walk at 4 months it will never walk. When looking at the maps, remember to allow + or - 1 day, and allow a bit of leeway on the borders between different weather areas.
On 04 Feb 2013, Carl T wrote:
I think they are slowly realizing the truth
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21328896
Yet again, 45 days out well done Piers
On 04 Feb 2013, Justin wrote:
@Steve, cheers enjoy Spain. I love the snow but am happy it being mild as it saves a lot on energy/fuel!! Still. like the idea of building a snowlar bear!! :>)
On 04 Feb 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
the snow I was referring to was 18th to the 22 Jan 2013. we are so lucky here as we are sheltered by the isle of White which has the effect of splitting the sw winds so we had it you did not. we missed the next lot which fell on the hills around Shaftesbury and then turned to rain, correct to say we haven't had any in Feb but the month is still young I will watch the news in Spain to see what you get, good luck.
On 04 Feb 2013, Justin wrote:
Steve, Dorset, I hear you but when was that snow? Was it in the 17th - 21st period of Jan cuz yes we had a little snow (more than in most years) but it didn't last. However, Piers forecast for that period was spot on. However for this last bit of Jan and early Feb I haven't seen a flake and certainly not in Major Blizzard form!!
On 04 Feb 2013, Steve,Dorset. UK wrote:
The comment that Dorset had no snow is not correct as I live 11miles as the crow flies so to speak from the coast, we had 5inches of the white stuff and I made a snow polar bear and have a photo to prove it, the snow layer stayed a around for several days so piers was corrected.
I have some wonderful snow pictures off it. I chose to build a polar bear as according to green peace they are an endangered (sarc).
On 04 Feb 2013, Justin wrote:
CONT, It seems that most comments of confirmation (ref UK weather) are relating to Mid UK and further North. What about the MAJOR BLIZZARDS in Southern England, what went awry? Are they coming cuz it has felt really mild and just occasionally a bit chilly (not that chilly for time of year). What have I missed? Any suggestions/help greatly appreciated. I like Simon Keeling's way of passing on info, he does not own, sensationalise or talk in absolutes and I feel that imparting info in that way invites less criticism. Don't get me wrong, I do feel Piers is onto something here and I am learning (slowly) but it does seem that the weather that didn't happen gets a lot less attention than that that did. However, the things that didn't happen seem to matter to some as much as the things that did, if that makes any sense at all? Lol. Cheers.
On 04 Feb 2013, Justin wrote:
CONT: I'm pretty sure if I say now that it will snow with some falling as Blizzards, some as sleet and rain in Scotland (particularly on higher ground for Blizzard conditions) at end of Jan and into early February 2014 although with the odd mild spell thrown in but not lasting any longer than a day or two particularly towards the end of the month...then I feel fairly confident of being about 65 - 75% right. However, I don't feel that confident in referring to the weather here on the south coast of England as it is notoriously difficult to get right, particularly near the Solent. So, with that in mind will someone please explain to this simpleton (as I feel like one now cuz there is a lot about this I simply struggle to understand) what is remarkable about this last forecast in ref to the UK forecast? I am impressed by all the other details Piers got right but I subscribed for weather in my area not the rest of the world (I'm thinking this may be how your critics are thinking) CONT
On 04 Feb 2013, j wrote:
Hi Piers and all. i have been following Piers and others work for about 2 years and so far pretty good in ref to Piers. i've been following the comments and like others have only just started subscribing on an as needed basis due to finances. What interests me tho, is this last snowfall that didn't happen here in s/sw England on the coast (Dorset). It did say in forecast Major Blizzards!! Yet came to nothing other than really mild. I appreciate all comments regarding this but there does not seem to be any claims made around y it didn't happen in comparison to the claims that it would happen. It feels a little inconsistent and it may put off other would be subscribers when this kind of detail does not get addressed as thoroughly as the original "Major Blizzards" claim. I feel it would be better if Piers himself actually addressed this more fully in the headlines as he did the original claim, as otherwise it may come across like sales jargon and sensationalism. CONT'
On 04 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
@Elin I have no need to look through data with a fine tooth comb. My livelihood (especially snow) is reliant on the weather. THE FACTS are, snow wasn't forcast even a couple of days before it came, temperatures were HALF what was predicated.
As for current, yes the snow is a few days later than forcast but up until late yestday snow wasnt even mentioned by the MO.(SE)
I live in SE, only today are they saying "possible" snow, sleet, rain....yes all three.......no mention of anymore snow (after tonight)...If Piers is correct we will see more.....................
What you fail to comprehend, from a business point of view it is better to know "weather" is coming (even if it is a few days out) than not knowing until its happening, which is were the MO excel.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Elim. I also pay the extra for a headlines only forecast 3 months ahead. Today's snow is mentioned in the headline forecast issued 19-12-12: "1-6th Feb Cold and snowy in North and East parts." The snow may have arrived half way through that period, but arrived it has. I make that 46 days ahead. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Outstanding forecasting from so very far ahead. You cannot expect pin point timing from so far ahead. Piers only claims 75% accuracy because his forecasts are so long range. Either way, you have to admit that conventional forecasters were not forecasting this snow from a few days ahead.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Elim. If you were a subscriber you'd see that on every forecast there is note to allow + or - 24 hours on the individual time periods. So the weather that was forecast for the 3rd February can turn up on the 4th and still be valid. This snow is consistent with Piers 30 day January forecast issued 30th December. I make that 36 days ahead.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@Elim. I'm a 45 day subscriber. I've just looked at the 15-45 day ahead forecast. Piers forecast today's snow on the 15th January. I make that 20 days ahead.
On 04 Feb 2013, Sid wrote:
Surely Piers can afford his own multi-billion pound computer to help progress his work?
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ KevinG - excellent! If the Met Office are howling, then they may shout themselves hoarse, as the bard hinted - "A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!" Not as good as yours.
On 04 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
http://trafficscotland.org/livetrafficcameras/index.aspx <<.. These traffic cameras show blizzard conditions across the Highlands today being the 4th Feb. These are impossible to predict in location or severity, but the fact that they will happen to some extent, across a given area, inside a particular time window, 6 weeks ahead IS possible, albeit still denied by scientists who don't have the skills to do this, and continue to be embarrassed by the scientist who can.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@Kevster. Good point. Sloppy of me. Apologies. There is a parallel between the mainstream weather models & the CO2 climate warming models. Both types ignore the effect of the sun because its gross output across the electromagnetic spectrum only fluctuates by 1%. They assume that variations in output of different parts of the spectrum make no difference. Recent work suggests this assumed equivalence is out by a factor of 10! (I posted the link on here, within the last 2 months I think. I think IceAgeNow.info headlined the research). Plus they ignore particle and magnetic effects. They also take a simplistic approach by assuming that any relationship between gross solar electromagnetic radiation and climate/weather must be a 1:1 relationship. As Piers points out above, it is a modulated relationship - not that simple. All this does not excuse me calling the weather models CO2 based, but they both share the same flawed assumptions - that's my excuse for my sloppiness & I'm sticking to it!
On 04 Feb 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Elim: I see from the BBC lunchtime forecast that snow has now reached the Pennines, part of the same area as Scotland, that blizzards were predicted for all that time ago.
On 04 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
@Elim which two snow events has Piers missed? I agree it was warmer than he predicted, but we are talking about forecasting 30-45 days out!!!!
He also never claims 100% accuracy.
I suggest you look how far off the mark the MO is, only a couples of days out.
Comparing the MO with weatheraction is like comparing a Lada with a Lamborghini.
If you look down the page I was doubting Piers, why? Because not one forecast or model was predicting what he was......just look what is coming to pass.
You dont need to have any knowledge of the sun or meteorology to see the blindingly obvious who the Lamborghini is!
On 04 Feb 2013, KevinG wrote:
WITH the confirmation of the discovery of the remains of Richard III in a car park Is Piers able to say if this winter will now be turned glorious summer by this sun of York? Or should I just go along with the Met Office of whom that bard may have been thinking when he wrote (in the Tempest (appropriately enough) “A plague upon this howling! They are louder than the weather or our office.”
On 04 Feb 2013, Kevster wrote:
Nick - I'm pretty sure that the Met Office models (or any other weather prediction models) are not "CO2-based". The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will not even be a variable because it doesn't fluctuate enough in the short term to affect weather.
On 04 Feb 2013, Elim wrote:
I understand what you're saying Nick, but taking snow as an example there's been two recent significant snow events that Piers didn't forecast. Also two mild periods. I'm not seeing a breakthrough yet.
CO2 over on ClimateRealists is persuading me to concentrate on the R5 forecasts only, which I will do with an open mind :)
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@Elim. I agree - snow in Scotland in February is not really a surprise. But are you missing the point? Surely it's not the event itself that's significant, it's the timing. More importantly, it's a long series of timings. If Piers' methods give better long range timings of significant weather events (including but not limited to snow in Scotland!) than the Met Office or other CO2-based models then that's important. My experience is that Piers' methods achieve this. Given the gross imbalance of resources, that is especially significant. As Piers' methods vastly outperform the billions of pounds and millions of man-hours (cumulative figure over the years and over the globe) invested in the conventional approach with his few resources then he has made a very significant advance - a breakthrough even. It's a work in progress too - I've seen big improvements in the 15 moths I've been a subscriber. I expect further refinements as Piers develops his methods.
On 04 Feb 2013, Duncan wrote:
Weather for January http://www.halesowenweather.co.uk/ mean temps 0.8C below normal. Mild & dry until 8th, cold 9th-25th with rain then snow 14th-23rd. Lying snow 18th-25th, deepest was 21cm on 23rd, but thawed quickly 26-27th. Wet mild end from 26th, with best sunny spells of the month, very windy 29th-31st. New snowfall totalled 31.5cm, the 3rd highest in 58 years.
On 04 Feb 2013, Elim wrote:
@Ron It'll take more than Winter snow in Scotland to impress me Ron :)
On 04 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
But CraigM.... Wiki is fine for double checking how many feet in a furlong or whether the troposphere is above or below the stratosphere etc. You know....simple stuff that it's impossible to change. I admit that if you go any deeper into Wiki's science pages you may as well be reading Wiki-answers ... what a waste of web-space that is... ! .......... I've been thinking about long term climate and what evidence it would leave behind. There are big holes in the theories such as CO2 trpped in ice permeating the ice and therefore smearing all the levels, getting rid of any peaks, which are extremely important. Very rapid increases of CO2 point to the sun warming the planet very quickly forcing the oceans to release CO2 rapidly. If tree ring data shows a burst of growth, but later, the ice cores show nothing but smeared average levels of CO2 then the two readings seem to contradict each other. This could be interpreted as a decade with less cloudy summers instead of high solar activity.
On 04 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Paddy NE Scotland wrote: "Yellow snow warning for whole Grampian region Monday suddenly appeared on MO site in afternoon." I'm thinking of contacting the MO suggesting they have a permanent warning on their site: "Don't eat the yellow snow!" Do you think they would appreciate it? LOL Yeah, I know I'm childish - it's part of my charm. MO not showing any weather warnings for Wales yet - snow just off the northeast border. Be interesting to see what develops. Well done Piers - over 600 posts - great that so many people are actively participating. Hopefully subscriptions are growing to - your ground-breaking work deserves support and doubtless you'll put increased income to good use further improving your methods so you can offer even greater long range accuracy. People, remember when you subscribe you are not only getting the best long-range forecasts, you are also contributing to cutting edge science - take pride in that! Potentially you are saving lives & improving human understanding.
On 04 Feb 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Strong winds+ heavy snow showers even here in central Highland Perthshire, at 140 metres, so it must be much worse on the higher parts of the A9 etc. If I remember from the informaton you released outwith your forecast, you were predicting blizzards 31st Jan-3rd Feb and here we arew just one day later getting blizzards. Not at all bad from so far in advance. I hope 'Elim' is paying attention.
On 04 Feb 2013, Not supplied wrote:
Met Eireann have given us a weather warning valid until 6th very strong WNW winds up to 130kph low temperatures wintry showers, potential for disruption. Gales force winds will cause drifting. Very rare Met Eireann mention snow warnings they always tend to keep things low key so this week may be a challenge commute wise!!
On 04 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
7˚C max again here south of Aberdeen yesterday Sunday, strong winds around lunchtime, abating later. Yellow snow warning for whole Grampian region Monday suddenly appeared on MO site in afternoon. Nothing here on the coast so far, but probably plenty inland, lots of showers on radar. Much colder feel in W wind, 2˚C at 7.30 am. Strong Low now NNW of Scotland; if that gets pushed down North Sea by Greenland High we’ll be in for a lot of snow – anything can happen until Thursday.
On 04 Feb 2013, Kevster wrote:
Craig, you say below, when referring to previously - "no way would I pay for a forecast (hands up I'm a former warmist)." Which raises an interesting point. Presumbly there's nothing to stop you being both a warmist and paying for a forecast. For example, I know lots of people that believe CO2 is causing a warming trend, but also believe that the sun has an influence on weather. And presumably some believe the opposite ie that the world is cooling, but believe that the sun cannot possibly affect the weather because weather timescales are far too short. Thoughts anyone?
On 04 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Piers stunning QV prediction. This one has been nailed. BTW The quakes I listed are from >> www.emsc.eu << not USGS. EMSC is easy to use on a mobile & includes quakes sometimes missed by USGS (interestingly I was reading comments about Indonesian quakes not being added to the USGS database despite emails from officials - most strange). Also looks like the QV period started & ended with a bang - literally! === 30th Jan Etna has 'strong eruption' Link >> http://bit.ly/XRiEFt << 2nd Feb "Paluweh volcano (Flores, Indonesia): major explosion generates ash plume rising to 43,000 ft (13 km)" Link>> http://bit.ly/XCurJw <<
Not a single M6 earthquake today but there were 6 x M5 which shows the QV period ending. +++ Russ do you think if Al-Gore-ythms were applied to seismic activity it would show Co2 responsible, that it's worse than we thought and we are past the tipping point (of sanity)? (wink)
On 04 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Piers I have updated the video with contour maps and run it from November, slowing the speed a bit. I've also added new moon+full moon. Link>> http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2013/02/03/europe-this-winter-tmax/ +++ Lynne don't expect to find the truth on Wikipedia - the rabid gatekeepers there ensure no one can question the theory of everything (Co2) anyone else will be smeared or deleted)! Link >> http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/10/the-wonderful-world-of-wikipedia/ << However to answer your question look on the WeatherAction video channel on YouTube where Piers explains basics of the theory. Link >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qi8oZ2vG0c <<== that's from 2009 discussing SLAM (now SLAT) but start there & view some of the other videos. Also check out daily spaceweather.com + solarham.net & just look at what you see during forecast periods noting changes. It takes time but it's worth the effort.
On 03 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Willy doubt is always good & I admit to many times having doubted parts of a particular forecast. When I first watched Piers I thought he was on the more extreme side of 'deniers' & no way would I pay for a forecast (hands up I'm a former warmist). The earthquakes were what allowed me to the key into understanding Piers theory (~ish still a long way to go for me) not to mention I kept finding weather extremes around the major warning periods. To know a pattern changing so far out continues to impress me-even in months where I can't subscribe (bills!!!). A recent example was the free Olympic forecast. I saw no deluge in West London but I saw heavy angry clouds approaching from France/South when it had been clear for days. There have been many other times like that. Not always 100% but it means I am well prepared. Always read the whole forecast/guide as well reading all guidance notes & if you're not sure just ask.
On 03 Feb 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgian met still not predicting the heavy snowfall up to know. Tommorrow Monday temps of about 6°c. From Tuesday on temps are going to drop but still no freezing in sight, except from Friday night. Day temps bvy end of the way about 4°c. Wintery showers are coming starting Tuesday for the rest of the week. Now, if it's going to get colder than predicted, then we're going to have a ball !!
On 03 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Links to some interesting presentations on the lack of global warming and the probability of a Little (or bigger) Ice Age: Headline: http://iceagenow.info/2013/02/global-warming-alarmists-earth-cooling/ Overview: http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/05/31/sorry-global-warming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/ Presentations: http://climateconferences.heartland.org/iccc7/
On 03 Feb 2013, Lynne wrote:
Russ, re. your suggestion to type terms into google + wiki. Perhaps I should have been more clear: whilst Wikis are obviously useful, they are not helpful as they do not offer explanations for how these phenomena are interpreted by Weatheraction. For example, the Wikipedia entry for coronal hole says "Coronal holes are areas where the Sun's corona is darker, and colder, and has lower-density plasma than average. ...During solar minimum, coronal holes are mainly found at the Sun's polar regions, but they can be located anywhere on the sun during solar maximum. The fast-moving component of the solar wind is known to travel along open magnetic field lines that pass through coronal holes." This doesn't explain at all what impact this is expected to have on UK weather patterns (presumably as there is no scientific consensus). It would be helpful for newcomers to Weatheraction if some explanations were added to the site to help with explanations of variance to the published forecast.
On 03 Feb 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 03 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
Now I feel ashamed at ever doubting!!
>>>>>>>>>>>
No no ... doubting is healthy.
BUT as time goes on we bystanders observe and note who comes up with the MOST correct forcasts / outlooks and we now doubt what we are being told by our political masters (& their paid minions)
On 03 Feb 2013, Gazza wrote:
c'mon Piers, when is the warm weather coming?
Had enough of the snow and ice this winter, although the South East might escape it this time? I hope so................
On 03 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
Now I feel ashamed at ever doubting!!
On 03 Feb 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
Reporting from Le Touquet. Some people never learn. Having contemplated starting the beach enduro 30mins early following y'days early tide halting the quad race, start time remained 1300. Race ended at 1515 instead of 1600. Sea not in as far but they would have needed more the a 30min earlier start to beat sea. If they had started at noon then a full race could have been run. How did the French forecasters do? Well not the bright spells in the morning they said. Overcast from dawn and west wind veering to SW by end of race. Light rain came around 1330 with drizzle then ending by sundown. For the week, they have temps dropping from Tues onwards but coldest and some snow only in the east of France - Alsace down to the Alps.Back in Blighty by tomorrow evening to see our weather develop.
On 03 Feb 2013, Carl T wrote:
Victory for Piers _AGAIN_
BBC complete reversal of previous forecasts !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21313768
On 03 Feb 2013, Dave Dorset wrote:
UK - Snows a comin http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2
On 03 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
Piers and Craig thanks for the clarification. (Faith maybe wasn't the best adjective)
It a learning process for me on the whole solar thing. TBH I completely overlooked the quake aspect. I guess because the weather affects my livelihood.
I'm guessing given the solar wind dates, it coming, just a little later, which is still amazing as its not on the MO radar yet.
On 03 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
5˚C this morning 7.30, rain overnight, landscape gone green & brown again here near the coast. Sufficient snow for skiing at the Lecht and Caringorm. Atlantic Lows are queuing up to get to Norway, apparently muscling the Greenland High out of the way, but let’s see whether it extends towards us again. -- Willy, Piers does say at the top of the page “extend first forecast period by two days”, so that’s up to Thursday – 4 days is a long time in weather :-)
On 03 Feb 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
CONTINUED FROM BELOW There are things going on you cannot see - eg magnetic effects. The solar-lunar EFFECT is what counts and absence of somethings can also have effect. EVIDENCE that something is going on before another flake of snow appears here is (i) Loads going on in USA as we predicted (ii) The Coronal holes (iii) The absolutely STUNNING level of quakes in our QV5 which in this case is Jan 30 to Feb 2 (related to the R5 Jan 31 to Feb 3) see the link above and you see there have been NINE (M6+) yes NINE! in the 4 days That makes this R5/QV5 special but dont worry there will be more weather effects. Piers
On 03 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Willy the sun may seem quiet as it is not actively flaring but don't rely on sunspots/flares. If you look at this image of the Sun yesterday you can see two coronal holes which spew out solar wind. This s/wind due to reach earth ~4-6th. The first one is small the second much larger and passing centre disc. +++ This earthquake period has been very active. with an increase in M5 as well as the 7 M6s. >> 25 Jan (M5) 3 / (M6) 0 == 26 3 / 0 == 27 6 / 0 == 28 1 / 1 == 29 2 / 0 == 30 4 / 2 == 31 5 / 1 == 01 Feb 7 / 3 == 02 10 / 1 (graph soon) +++ Rare quake (M2.4) in Highlands (31/1) 'David Galloway, a seismologist at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, said..."It is one of five or six recorded in the region within a 30km (19-mile) radius, and the largest since 1887."It is not a region that experiences many earthquakes . Link >> http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/news/home-news/earthquake-hits-scottish-highlands.1359739526
On 03 Feb 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
BRILLIANT OBS AND COMMENTS!!! I do like hearing it from Scotland where Arctic blasts come first - Thanks Paddy and Mark! --- JONATHAN HUNT What can I say? Really appeciated, thank you. The task is to get others to see what is clear to us --- WILLY It's not a matter of faith but understanding and power of observation (which is the precursor of science) to get the snow predicted on time we need (1) Cold, and it's here (2) Moisture, and that looks like coming too but bear in mind the UK is a small place and this foreast is also about NW Europe. If the High keeping the snow to the East moves a bit more east then the snow comes in Denmark and the Low countries but still it comes. Anyhow the same short range models had potentially a lot of snow in England for this weekend. There has been some eg Yorkshire but they could equally change to loads or not during the week. The sun not very active - true but be careful => Next
On 02 Feb 2013, Jonathan Hunt wrote:
Only 1cm of Snow Paddy? You should count yourself lucky as you're the first to get it, right at the beginning of the R5 transition! :) It's funny how people are using the Met models to try and say that the SLAT charts will not come true. The Charts clearly give timescales or roughly when they should happen and they clearly do! Have a look at tonights BBCs UK weather video and you'll see the baffled presenter trying to give a forecast and the big warning given for next week. People are missing the point if all that's important here is snow and timing of the long range weather. The point is that Piers has found a way of predicting weather up to 45 days at least and has more than provided enough confidence that the Sun plays a big part in our weather and not man-made CO2 emissions. We will look back at this time and remember where this fantastic advancement in weather prediction happened.
On 02 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
Am I right to be losing faith in the first part of Feb foecast? 5th is only Tuesday with no snow forecast, another than Scotland.
Models appear all over the place, which I know you always warn about in R5 periods. The sun doesn't appear over active for an R5?
On 02 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Jonathan H: only 1cm of snow this morning here, south of Aberdeen, 130 m elevation 5 miles from sea, quite sunny all day, 2˚C max. - Overnight frost though, against MO predictions, don’t know where their measuring location is, poss Dyce airport. Now at 9pm it is ºC, MO says warming up overnight, 6˚C tomorrow. Looking at Atlantic High having moved eastwards all day, one would expect milder temps tomorrow, perhaps that High needs to be out of the way first in order for the Greenland High to dominate & send Norwegian Lows down the N Sea? MO shows snow symbol only on Wed, yellow wind warning NW corner of Grampian area Monday; radar at 8pm tonight shows precipitation approaching NW of Scotland. – Good to encourage folks to look at the stars, wonderful experience and puts most things into perspective, especially the scams :-)
On 02 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Thanks Piers. It's proving a usefull tool. I'll do one for 6am to see how deep cold was at night and where the cold was. In the East looked brutal in daytime.+++ I put a couple of NASA images of Britain at night plus Britain last Saturday. Link>> http://wp.me/p36Pys-J << even where I live it's not great for seeing stars (way better than London) but if I take a ten minute walk out into fields it makes a massive difference. Back in 09/10 I recall looking up at the stars (after my eyes adjusted) in very clear skies. 2012 for me was very overcast with few stargazing opportunities so I've missed rare aurora, the venus transit and eclipses. If I get time I'll see if I can do a lookback. +++ Heard it was -11c in Chicago O'Hare on Thurs.
On 02 Feb 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Batbgate, Scotland. Thursday and Friday were the days that the wind eased a bit with cloudy sky's and a good bit of rain, thursday morning there was heavy wet snow falling for 2hrs but did not settle on ground. Both days the temps averaged +2c in the evening, 0c early morning with frost and +4c daytime. Friday evening into Saturday morning temps dropped to minus 5c with thick frost and anything wet turning to ice, sleeping in Jeep due to work commitments and condensation inside had turned to ice by early morning, ok but as using Rab sleeping bag rated at minus 15c, a bit nippy though when you have to get out of it. All day Saturday clear lovely sky with a biting North West gentle breeze, temp averaged minus 3c in shade and +2c in the beautifull Sun. As of 1900hrs temps are starting to tumble down again.
On 02 Feb 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
How do the French compare to MO? Had 2 forecasts for Fri and great chance to observe as went walking round marsh and nature reserve. Both had rain am, then one for it to continue the other to clear up with bright spells. Wind to veer from SW to NNW. Rain didn't start until 11am so only just morning. It carried on into early afternoon and while bird-watching I noted the wind had changed as predicted. One bright period did appear but then changed back to heavy cloud but no rain. Wind had eased as well. Didn't see forecast for today but wind NW to NNW, bitingly cold, blowing sand along the open beach and requiring caution watching the bikes as the sand they throw up was being caught by the wind and blown into your eyes. Sunny spells and not warm at all. My van thermometer read 47.7F outside. Heavy sleet shower in early evening. Forecast for Sun is clear, dry am, showers PM, strong SW wind 50-70kmh. Will this blow the tide in early again like today - see earlier post.
On 02 Feb 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
Reporting from Le Touquet. This afternoon saw the Quaduropale beach race cut short by the sea. There was still an hour to go when the sea invaded the southern section of the course. PIERS is it possible that solar-lunar influences brought forward the predicted high tide? If you are running a beach race, getting the tide right is quite important. Seemed v different to my last visit in 2009 when the tide was retreating from the edge of the course at its southern extremity and was way back come the race between 1300-1600. The dilemma for tomorrow for the solo Enduropale with over 1000 bikes is how will they finish the race given the course flooded today 1hr 15mins before the solos are scheduled to finish.
On 02 Feb 2013, Brad wrote:
It's funny Piers people expect you to be 100 % correct. and if you are only 50 -70 % they come at you.
the Met office gets 30% right TV and Money monry money.
If people were not forced in to paying for the propoganda Met , BBC it would die.overnight!
Well done Piers and Co.
On 02 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
CraigM.... Al Gore 'ythams .... Mops up tears with shirt sleeves...nice one! ..... X=t+g/e+E X = the end of the world... t = a thimble full of trace gas... g = the total atmospheric trace gas... e = the Earth... and E = Al Gores belief system. Thats the tipping point Al Gore 'ytham.
On 02 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
Rich.... All depends where in the UK you are re:Jan temps. Here in sheepish Derbyshire it has been bitterly cold the last week of January and today is the first time I've left off my gloves. Just a breeze but very cold if you were to stand around for a few minutes taking photographs for instance. Today out of the sun there were hundreds of patches of ice, some older from last week and some fresh created overnight. The muddy ground of yesterday was almost all solidly frozen today even in the sun, even at 2pm. So some places have been recording/achieving relatively mild temps for January but not all areas. Our area has hardly broken the January average. Of course, walking in the town centre it is probably quite comfortable but where there is no heat island effect out of town the temps are startlingly different. Lynne... Type the term into Google followed by the word "Wiki". One thing Wikipedia is good for, looking up the meaning of terms or phrases. Screencapture for future reference.
On 02 Feb 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Yellow weather warning issued by M/O for Monday 4/2/13 for Orkney & Shetland, Highlands & Eilean Siar, Strathclyde.
Issued at: 1200 on Sat 2 Feb 2013
Valid from: 0005 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Valid to: 2359 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Gale and locally severe gale force winds will affect much of Scotland during Monday. Gusts will be particularly strong in exposed northern and western Scotland and around heavy showers which will fall as sleet and snow quite widely. Some drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground.
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially to travel.
On 02 Feb 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
ALSO --- RICH For info at least a foot of snow fell for some in the period ~17-21 and there were cerainly drifts of more than a foot. It does not hang around without being topped up. It of course evaporates even if air is cold, unless air is saturated - ie snowing or foggy. So our forecast certainly was not saying much snow on the ground at end of Jan --- CRAIG M Great little VID you have done/ Good to see when cold 'hung around' or not and showing it's preference for East parts and when it reached Ireland. PC
On 02 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Rich. Agreed the last quarter of January has been off. So Piers forecast was not perfect. What a surprise. Let's not forget he only claims 75% accuracy - that means he's wrong 25% of the time. From 4 weeks out that's still an outstanding performance. Perhaps we've come to expect too much from him. But I'm willing to bet he's working his socks off to get better. I've been a subscriber for about 15 months, and I've seen big improvements in that time. An aside - it's now raining in my living room! That's how it feels watching Ireland slaughter Wales. Oh well, back to it.
On 02 Feb 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
GREAT INFORMATION AND COMMS Thanks all. Just one Comm --- RICH yes fair point but do bear in mind we warn that (depending on how much precision you want) these LONG RANGE forecasts will be 'out' - farmers' assessment - 15% of the time or so. In our weather periods after 17-21st the 22-25 did have some very low temps then it turned mild so 26-28 although we had said milder / less cold than before it was too mild. Our warnings did at least improve on MetO prognoses. This w/e 1-2 Feb: Of course short range computer forecasts also made errors in SE and more. The R5 makes things change rapidly and unexpectedly. Our general point about SNOW to come in this period (give or take a day re our time uncertainties too) is still on - see other comms - and computers now say Mon+Tues for a big hit - still in our 1-5th. Compare that with their milder and very vague 2 week ahead looks. On your question WHY errors we have to investigate such matters as lower strato-warms. Thanks PC
On 02 Feb 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
There was a clear night in Ashington last night too albeit very windy. We woke to a light dusting of snow this morning. I have to agree that you really haven't seen the stars until you have been out in the country. I was in bonchester bridge in the Scottish borders several years ago and was astounded at how clear and bright the stars were. A local man advised me that they were even brighter a few miles further out away from nearby jedburgh. Do yourself a favour folks and get out to the country on a clear night :-)
On 02 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Just seen a BBC forecast showing the turn to cold conditions next week and heard 'blizzards' in Scotland (60-70mph with 80 poss) and not just on high ground. Then checked the MetO site and a yellow wind warning for Scot for Monday. If you read the detail blizzards get a mention more likely over. high ground but not exclusive. Should go Amber on Sun.as the MetO get more detail and move from ECMWF models to near term models from other sources (if you follow Ian F on twitter you will see these mentioned as precipitation approaches) +++ Cold came in yesterday with clearing skies ni frost but not far off. will post proper obs later. +++ If you have a phone that can do screen grabs (google search should let you know how) to take pics of forecasts&maps as these are a great way of tracking changes in the lead up to events. +++ Piers to clarify, is this R5. carrying onto 4th (weather only) as suggested earlier? +/- 1day.
On 02 Feb 2013, JohnE wrote:
Nick Stoneman, interesting comments re-star gazing. Never really thought about this but your comments are very true. Out in Dalby forest at the end of November 2012 at around 22.00 whilst marshalling on an historic car rally and my word the sky was amazing, completely clear with some shooting stars thrown in for good measure. We dont really know what we are missing until we get that sort of an opportunity to just look upwards
On 02 Feb 2013, danny wrote:
Well just had to laugh to myself. A certain ian ferguson on another web forum has just mentioned no sign of a prolonged cold and snowy outbreak. Typical met office statement. Glad im paying attention to piers outlook. And not listening to the met. Looks like they have no idea whats about to hit once again.
On 02 Feb 2013, Rich wrote:
Whilst we are focusing on SSW events and coronal holes, etc, which is all very interesting, - from a weather forecasting point of view (which is the main point) the elephant in the room is that it was milld and wet the last quarter of Jan (not v.cold and dry) and there are certainly not feet of snow or blizzards anywhere. I organise sporting events, which I could have done this weekend as it is sunny and mild in the SE. Did something go wrong as the mid-jan forecast was otherwise a good call.
On 02 Feb 2013, Steve P wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2271906/UK-weather-Snow-warning-winter-bites-Temperatures-plummet-4C-tonight.html#axzz2JjISxSiE
The Daily Mail tells us snow is on the way to North East, East Anglia and Scotland today then a brief lull but by Monday night the bitter cold snap will return with a vengeance – and could bring more than 10cm (4in) of snow to the Pennines and Cumbrian fells quoting Matt Dobson,, forecaster for MeteoGroup, guess we should double that.
On 02 Feb 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Newspaper article from DM Sat 02/02/13
"Snow warning as winter bites again: Temperatures will plummet to -4C tonight"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2271906/UK-weather-Snow-warning-winter-bites-Temperatures-plummet-4C-tonight.html#ixzz2Jk1TCq4R
On 02 Feb 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Met Office issues a Cold weather Alert Level 2
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
Piers you never cease to amaze with your forecasts. Excellent work once again.
On 02 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Contd./) worlds which have underdone "global warming"! Amazing to think that our dirty polluting ways have affected 3 planets separated from us (and each other) by millions of miles of vacuum! Gosh, no wonder we need controlling and taxing!! Let's hope some of that extraordinarily extended effect rubs off on the Wales rugby team - after last year's superb Six Nations, Wales need all the help they can get. C'mon Wales! Apologies for going off topic - desperate times.
On 02 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
You're welcome Craig M - and what a great quote from the Royal Society, 1817! Helps keep a sense of perspective. Weather 7 miles north of Carmarthen @ 300 ft asl @ 10.00 hrs. - beautiful sunny day! Hardly a cloud in the sky. Still a little ice on the cars that are in the shade - clear night dropped temps. The stars last night were just stunning! If you live in an area of light pollution, give your eyes, your mind and your soul a treat - on a clear night, get yourself somewhere without light pollution, wrap up warm, and spend some time studying the heavens. You'll be stunned by the beauty you've been missing, and you'll see more and more as your eyes adjust to the darkness (the SAS reckon it takes 20 minutes for eyes to fully adjust, but even a minute will stun). I've seen life-long Londoners gob-smacked by the heavens which have been hidden from them all their lives. And if you can find Mars, Venus and Jupiter (lots of apps for 'phones, tablets & laptops can help) you'll see (Contd./
On 02 Feb 2013, Jonathan H wrote:
Snowing I'm told this morning in Aberdeen. Very cold here in London. The BBC seem to delay and reduce their forecasts. They are very hesitant and it's clear why with the general charts being erratic. Snow appearing on their forecasts from Monday onwards. Will be very interesting to see how dramatic their forecasts will change in the next 48hrs. Good luck Piers!!
On 02 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Thanks Nick. For anyone else curious..."It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past ... President of the Royal Society, Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, Royal Society, London. 20th November, 1817. Link>> http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm << great read. +++ Danny you beat me to it. The low looks to race down the country N-S into central Europe in ~24hrs. Blizzards likely but watch it closely as it will change.
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
I updated the video of temperatures and whilst the cold did hold on longer than forecasted the warmth did push into Europe and the cold backed off with the deep cold backing west (hardly warm with daytime temps just above freezing). Notice the last frame as the R5 kicks in and the cold advances into Scandinavia again (watch the dark blue). It will be very interesting to see how this progresses with the stratospheric warming effects. Link>> http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2013/02/01/european-temperature-video-update/ << So now it's 'sabotage' that windmills fall over? Like this never happens in other areas of construction where something built to last simply doesn't? How about poor quality workmanship/design etc - or aren't we allowed to criticise 'green builds' these days? Or would a shining light show suspect planning decisions? Expect to hear nothing then a quiet release months from now (like the MetO lowered climate predictions).
On 01 Feb 2013, danny wrote:
Looks like you will be spot on once again piers. The charts now backing up your ideas once again. No doubt the met ofice will let us all know 24hrs too late as per usual. But looks like deep snow cold and blizzards from tuesday onwards. Think i will stock up on food this weekened as i think this could set in for a good while. Keep up the good work piers.
On 01 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Craig M. Excellent comments! Great point about modern data (e.g.satellite data) not going back very far. Useful comments about British Admiralty records. The Admiralty were (are) meticulous in their record keeping. Those are the sort of data which can give a reliable guide to what's happened previously and what's actually happening now. Nice to know about the lack of ice at times during the last Little Ice Age. People, including climate scientists, do seem to have very fixed ideas - "There's more open water so the Earth must be getting hotter." Incredibly simplistic - completely ignores local and/or short term variations. Especially as there is now so much evidence of very rapid temperature swings with hot periods during both full-blown and Little Ice Ages. So, the Earth is very complex and subtle - gee, who would have thought?!!! Perhaps we need a proper educational system (which shows people HOW to think) rather than just a training system (which just tells people WHAT to think).
On 01 Feb 2013, andyk wrote:
I find the tabloid trash headlines stating 'Siberian Blast' etc every time there is a hint of a cold spell of weather with a few inches of snow, pretty annoying. I believe the people writing these headlines have no understanding of the typical British winter and unfortunately are feeding the masses with a lot of nonsense with regard to the weather and climate. I find Weather Action very informative and scientific but i do worry that they over sensationalise any cold spells of weather in the winter in the same way that the tabloids do.
On 01 Feb 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Noticeably colder here in Aberdeen, wind turned into the north, 2˚C all day, snow showers started at 4pm, expect a white blanket tomorrow morning. Warmest we had this week was 7˚C on Wednesday, some rain every day - Been watching MO local forecast like a hawk, taking screen shots: the first mention of snow on Friday was on Monday 28th, 4 days ahead. - No weather warning nor freezing temps forecast, so let's see how this pans out.
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
===> Wed 30th 13/7c (sudden 4c drop @3am steady drop to ~7c by 7am then steady rise to 11c by 1pm then steady drop until midnight). Pressure steady rise 999>1017 until 12pm). Wind W/SW ~20mph (12-3am) then rising to peak ~40mph 3pm before steadily dropping to <10mph by 12am). Rain v.light-moderate-v.light (1am-4am-6am)+v.light 10-11.
===> Thu 31st 10/6c (rise 6-10c 12am-squall [see note] steady ~10c thereafter until 4pm then steady drop to 7c). Pressure 1017>1009(5-9am) slow steady rise to 1013 which lasted 5-10pm then dropped to ~1011). Wind S-S/W-S 10>30>10mph (12am-2pm-7pm) HOWEVER at 1145 a localised squeal blew up with ferocious wind (~40mph doubled in moments with 3c drop in temps) & horizontal rain (thankfully I was indoors). It lasted 15mins then stopped as suddenly as it started (reports country wide of meso cyclone in some areas 'officially' unconfirmed official due to inadequate radar). By 1215 clear sky & I could not see a single rain bearing cloud ~25km square view.
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
OBS 1/2 (bear in mind these are most likely over due to UHI).
===>Sat 26th Min9/Max3C (3c until 9am then steady rise until drop from 3-5pm of 2c then steady ~7c). Pressure 999mb>1010 (10-1530)>999(12pm). Wind 15mph peak gust S/E>S/W. Rain: light 12-2am otherwise v.light 2-6am+8-11pm
===>Sun 27th 10/3c (steady rise 7-10c 12-8am, steady drop 1-12pm) Pressure 999(12am)>990(6am)>1002(12pm) Wind ~25mph peak S/W steady direction all day peaks followed pressure drop.Rain: v.ight 12-4am, light until 8am stopped 9am then 4-5pm v.light>
===> Mon 28th 11/2C (4-2c 12-8am, steady rise until 12pm). Pressure 1003-1009 (12-10am) >999 (-7pm) > 1002 (12am). Wind 23mph peak S/W, Rain: v. light 2-6pm, light 6-7pm stopped ~8pm.
===> Tue 29th 13/9c (~10 until 8am rise until 12pm then steady). Pressure: ~1002 until 2pm steady drop to ~999 12am). Wind 25mph peak (following pressure) S/W. Rain v.light on & off.
On 01 Feb 2013, Lynne wrote:
Intrigued by the addition to the website today - "PERFECT! Earth facing Coronal Holes (EFCH) pair today". I'm a very supportive subscriber and awaiting developments over the next few days with interest. However, as a non-expert, I do find much of the (obviously well-informed) commentary on the weatheraction site incomprehensible, partly because there is no explanation of basic methodology on the Weatheraction website. Is it possible to provide explanations of common terms please? For example, is the news/comment item today providing further support for existing forecasts or weakening them? I assume the former? Piers, could you include a glossary of terms on the methodology section (coronal hole, Greenland high, GFS, magnetic filament etc) so that non-experts can understand some of the commentary better?
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
....cont...I forgot also throw wind direction into the mix which is demonstrated well by increased ice in the Bering Strait
and Alaska cooling e.g. ' the nation's icebox is getting even icier.That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska." Link >> http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/forget-global-warming-alaska-headed-ice-age << Rhys - sats measure sea ice using al-gore-ythms (wink)which explains the differenceson surface but not beneath.
On 01 Feb 2013, Gill 1066 country wrote:
Very, very useful February forecast Piers. Decisions can be made off the back of this. I have subscribed for the first time just for this month. If this all pans out, I shall be an annual subscriber from March. For farmers the worst forecast of all is Countryfile. You can bet their five day forecast changes within the first 24 hours. Now to convince Farmer C that what you say will happen.
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont...then there is the sun of course (I also have no idea how cloud cover has changed another ingredient)...Now this may not be scientifically correct but is a way to visualise the process. imagine the atmospheric layers over the poles - the most sensitive to the suns activity - like coiled springs. With high solar magnetic cycles the polar airmasses are 'tightly coiled' mostly confined to the polar regions. In low cycles this 'slackens' so polar air affects lower latitudes sending the jetstream towards the equator. The same process also allows warm airmasses from the tropics up into higher latitudes - hence LIA giving wild swings. Obviously there is much more to it but if you look back over js animations you see this happening. This would no doubt affect the poles as warm air hit Greenland last year briefly. The point is you don't need 'wacky backy' CO2 'catch all' theories (wink)
On 01 Feb 2013, Craig M wrote:
Russ+others: There are a lot of processes affecting the polar regions. The temps are largely sub zero & most of the ice is below the surface. Warm ocean currents have affected the poles mostly the arctic which lacks landmass-melting from below. There is also more river run off from Russian rivers (prob runs in cycles). The storm in August also broke up the seaice & if you've ever used crushed ice it melts quicker than a block. Man does add to it: black carbon pollution(soot-think peasoup fogs of past) which absorbs heat & melts more ice. We also warm rivers by industrial run off. Then there are icebreakers (same effect as Aug storm). This all adds up with no greenhouse needed but has it happened before? The satelite record (starting in a cold phase) is woefully short & tells us nothing. British Admiralty records during the last LIA detail the lack of ice which was great for trade routes but didn't last. It will get worse but it is a cycle so no panic needed...cont..
On 01 Feb 2013, Mark bolton lancs wrote:
Been very gusty here in Bolton last 2 days with cold spells of rain, very sharp biting winds...just waiting for that snow to return to complete the cycle
On 01 Feb 2013, Clive Knight wrote:
I see the Telegraph is reporting on two windmills falling over in Devon - now being pushed as "Sabotage". There are over 30 pages of reader comments - some hilarious How convenient! Interestingly, the BBC have not even mentioned the story. Go to http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/9841848/Sabotage-suspected-at-toppled-wind-turbine-as-second-is-brought-down.html
Clive
On 01 Feb 2013, JohnE wrote:
Met Office now forcasting sleet for the Bury area on the 5th Feb with temperatures dropping back to 2 degrees. Interesting days ahead me thinks
On 01 Feb 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
The Sea Ice page of www.wattsupwiththat.com has a chart documenting sea ice thickness in the arctic. How it is measured, how long they have been doing it and how accurate it is, I don't know.
Clearly, however, the measurements are ongoing and presumably somebody has been calibrating the satellite sensors by sticking something through at various points to measure thickness manually.
Perhaps Mr Watts will get a guest to write a piece on it??
On 01 Feb 2013, Nick, Berks wrote:
@Nick Stoneman. Yes, Arctic sea ice area from the NSIDC web site. Don't know about thickness and volume, my belief is that there is no present systematic measure and that, though there is a lot of work being done on it, it will be many years before we can safely talk about trends in volume. My impression (culled mainly from New Scientist reading) has been that what measurements there have been show thickness losses, thereby exacerbating area losses. Likewise I'm not aware of a reliable volume measure for the Antarctic. Sea ice area there is increasing (NSIDC again) but the increases are much smaller in abolute and percentage terms than for the Arctic.
Separately, and more back on topic, there are some fascinating comments here on space weather, an area in which I (un)happily profess ignorance, and it will be interesting to see how this pans out in terrestrial weather effects in the next few days. Presently 7C here and pleasantly sunny and still.
On 01 Feb 2013, mike wrote:
Hi all. 1 interesting thing of this winter has been the Canadian PV, this has prevented a Greenland High happening. Any thoughts Piers why its been stuck there all winter.
On 01 Feb 2013, Jane wrote:
Hi Piers
I have just been reading about Eric Dollards work, and a poster on Dollard's website linked his theories to :http://www.etheric.com/LaViolette/Predict.html
I have absolutely no idea whether this is real or fake, but as a scientific pleb, but it gave me an overview that I could understand (just about) and seems to me to add more proof to how and why your work is so accurate and why we are having such momentous changes in our weather.
(Apologies if it is faked info.)
Keep up the good work !
On 01 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Paul. Agreed that the global temp. trend over a meaningful time scale is pretty neutral - assuming the data are representative - there have been accusations of cherry-picking. The neutral trend is in itself important - we are taking action which costs £2.6Bn a year, & kills an additional 2,700 people each winter. If the Earth is not warming (despite increasing CO2 levels) why are we killing people & spending the money? The short term trend shows cooling - not significant in itself, but given that the evidence supporting the theory of natural climate cycles is so much more robust than the evidence supporting CO2 global warming, & also given that natural cycle theories predict global cooling, we should be vigorously seeking definitive evidence one way or the other. Polar ice volume trends should be accurately assessed, rather than ice area being the headline measure. But here's a thought - what if mid-latitude & tropical temps. decreased, but polar temperatures stayed the same?
On 01 Feb 2013, Russ wrote:
I'm having great fun watching these loopy extension of the Jet Stream. The latest one has been deflected by the huge, calm, high pressure area over North Africa. I can't believe it's pushed so far south in the middle of the Atlantic. Also note that Piers has got a Greenland high, it's just not as large as he expected. So those Jet Stream loops are still forming, they haven't gone away, they've just moved west by a thousand miles or so. When the Scandinavian high weakens then they'll move back over the UK. Now what we need is something like a huge filament on the sun to erupt quite close to a couple of coronal holes, thereby spewing billions of tons of highly charged plasma in an Earthly direction. Whats this? Spaceweather.com and it's a.... Looks like Piers forecast could come good in a day or two when that CME hits home....... NE Derbyshire, the wind is still quite bitter in exposed areas. A small lake was still 1/6th frozen over.Still lots of bits of snow and ice, here and there.
On 01 Feb 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@Nick, Berks. Many thanks for the correction - the graph does indeed relate to area, not volume. My mistake, and sorry for my misleading comment on volume - effects of tiredness. However, unless there has been a reduction in the thickness of Arctic ice elsewhere to compensate for the ice forming on previously open water, there will have been an increase in volume - obviously these data do not of themselves show that, nor the extent of volume increase, if any. By "current extent" I assume you mean "current area". Can't remember the reference, but wasn't there evidence suggesting that actual volume of Arctic ice loss in summer 2012 was not exceptional? And also that average volume of Arctic ice is not showing a significant downtrend? If anyone has a reference for Arctic ice volume estimates, please post here. Be good to review the actual figures. Either way, let's not forget that Antarctic ice volume is the highest ever measured. Reference on here somewhere.
On 01 Feb 2013, willy wrote:
Well I never the MO forecast 10c, (yesterday for today) its 5c. They did have Tuesday high @ 12c which has now been downgraded to 8c, which I suspect is way off.
Saturaday as the coldest and no snow....for the SE. Hmmm
On 01 Feb 2013, Nick, Berks wrote:
@Nick Stoneman, Well the growth in sea ice area (not volume) really does no more than reflect last year's unexpectedly low minimum. Current extent is still well below the long term average. Whatever the theories (including storm effects on ice breakup) current commercial and political manoeuvering (e.g. http://www.economist.com/news/international/21571127-will-asian-countries-consolidate-or-disrupt-arctic-stability-roar-ice-cracking) is not because everbody expects the Arctic to be blocked by thick ice sheets in the coming decades.
On 01 Feb 2013, Carl T wrote:
And the Met-O and BBC have changed their forecasts as of 00:42 this morning snow and cold air on the way.. at least the forecast presenter had the decency to look sheepish.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/
On 31 Jan 2013, shaun wrote:
@Grant, you're missing the point of this thread... this is a collection, which most support an alternative to the models. Why? because they can be so terribly wrong, so frequently... Piers vs the MO, has resulted in a 2-0 to Piers since December 2012 so why would anyone take the MO seriously. I see it being 3-0 soon.
If you read through the threads below you will see how people are discussing the MO habit of contradicting itself, lying, chopping and changing it's forecast more than my indecisive lady changes her mind; mainly their habit of being wrong. It would appear that the MO, to make their global warming nonsense seem plausible, exaggerate future warmth, then they downgrade it gradually day by day until it's so close I may as well look out my window to see the what the weather is doing.
Example; 2012 was forecast to have half a year at least of drought.... WRONG! then the last few years there has been BBQ summers forecast... WRONG! oh and no more snow in the UK, lol WRONG!
On 31 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Arctic Ice Growth Shatters Previous Records. The growth in Arctic ice volume between mid-September 2012 and the end of January 2013 is the highest recorded for over 30 years. See graph @ http://iceagenow.info/2013/01/arctic-ice-growth-shatters-previous-records/ Worth mentioning the next time a warmest trots out "What about Arctic ice loss?" As discussed here, at IceAgeNow.info and other sites, the apparent Arctic ice loss last summer was just that - apparent. It was ice break up and pile up rather than ice loss per se. But the extra open water seems to have given ice formation a boost. Like all natural cycles, this appears to be largely self-correcting. Having said that, even natural cycles can swing between extremes. As I think the Earth will demonstrate over the next 15 to 100 years. Oh well, if it gets too cold we can always burn warmists to keep warm - there are enough of them!
On 31 Jan 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
Not reporting from Surrey but roving reporter in northern France. Lots of cloud with odd sunny break driving to tunnel. Popped out on the other side into raging gale but nice and sunny. Serious windchill going on and glad went under channel. Boulogne harbour walls taking battering with wave plumes reaching as high as the windmill hubs - no doubt find pic on net to get idea. Signs of heavy rain as a couple of flood road signs still in place and plenty of lakes in fields. Wind on cliffs nearly enough to blow you over. Will be interesting if keeps up for the Le Touquet beach races over the weekend. It snowed on Sunday last year.
On 31 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgian National Meteo is still not predicting any snow whatsoever. What we should get tomorrow is a huge amount of rain. They're talking about 15 - 20 liters/m2. Saturday should be very very wet as well. Temps on Saturday should by 5°c climbing to 8°C on Monday. It should be getting colder by end of next week with temps of max 4°c. Predictions are in line with what was predited 2 days ago. If this cold blast comes over this weekend, well no need to say that a lot of people will be very very very surprised. Keep you all posted from my spot.
On 31 Jan 2013, larkduke wrote:
Met eireann arrogance forecasts mild spell Sunday, no mention of snow at lower levels, just rain and possible sleet I dislike Evelyn cusack because she discounts any other form of forecasting. I hope they have egg on their faces. The wizard hath spoken.
On 31 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
Theres still no definite sign of global cooling yet. When sea ice starts to recover to 1970s levels and the earths average temp drops and no amount of data manipulation will be able to hide the drop then you can say we're in global cooling. It is sort of borderline at the moment. The northern hemisphere has near record coverage of snow, some glaciers are growing and sea ice is growing at a rapid rate but it will propably end up melting away again to September 2012 levels. The next few years are going to be interesting and I expect to see the sea ice starting to make a come back.
On 31 Jan 2013, Gill 1066 country wrote:
Waiting for the 30d February forecast; not because I want snow, but because I am hoping Piers will be forecasting a rise in temp as the month proceeds as I need to sow asap (Horticulture displays) for the coming show season. In fact we need an end to the rain and a potential early spring as the fields are in an awful wet state and we start lambing soon. (Twins born early outside in THAT snow) and we shall be relying on Piers to give us hope.
On 31 Jan 2013, Grant wrote:
It doesn't look like blizzards or snow Piers. Granted we may get blizzards on mountains but this is normal for this time of year. It also looks positively mild again on Sunday and Monday according to most models and weather forecasters.
On 31 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset.UK wrote:
Big hailstones or bricks worth a look.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2271147/Nine-people-killed-freak-hailstorm-rains-massive-boulders-Indian-villages.html
On 31 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Snow now falling at 140 metres at 1450hrs on Thursday, here in central Highland Perthshire.
On 31 Jan 2013, Rob wrote:
According to Spaceweather.com there is an earth facing coronal hole which I presume is a driver in the R5 factor. Also they say there is currently ''a bushy filament of magnetism snaking over the sun's northeastern limb''. What are your thoughts on that Piers? It was a magnetic filament that changed you Dec. 2011 forecast.
On 31 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes looking interesting from Tuesday, indeed even from late Sunday after the brief milder spell on Saturday,( the morning Beebcast did not go beyond Sat.) So all to play for Piers and Elim et al may get a poke in the eye yet on the ClimateRealists site. Best of liuck. Fresh snow on the hill up here already.
On 31 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
OMG (and i never say OMG - yuk) Simon Keeling has just credited Piers with forecasting this SSW first - check out his look ahead vid for today..... http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php
On 31 Jan 2013, Sid wrote:
Can I make money like this too? Take the MO forecast and add 1?
On 31 Jan 2013, larkduke wrote:
Hi all, as my forecast comes to an end and a minor speed bump in a road well mapped by the Wizard of Weather has been and gone all eyes now on the weekend battle. The Meteo Times are pointing toward severe winter weather from Tuesday on, I cant help but feel that people will be ill prepared for the coming onslaught. I am a firm advocate of Mr Corbyn's methods, history will be written and in the future when generations are using slat as a given Mr Corbyn may perhaps be the Magellan of weather. Currently here in Kildare post squall its Baltic outside, a biting wind and currently crisp clear blueskies. Go neiri leat.
On 31 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Temps currently +5C with wind chill of exactly 0C due to harsh wind. Previous predictions by the KNMI of 'unseasonably warm weather' have been scaled down to 'below normal' for the coming weekend and following week. Gale force wind predictions for several days in a row now (although they were off by 1 day on Tuesday) and it feels like a huge battle being waged between warm and Arctic air. Our location again the coldest spot in the country, with winds varying from SW to due North and swinging to the east from time to time. Will be interesting to see what will happen next ...
On 31 Jan 2013, Sue wrote:
Storm force winds and lightening here in Ireland throughout night, thousands have lost power...but as I check Met Eireann again no word today about the extensive snow they forecast for friday evening? How can you rely on these forecasts when they change so often. It's embarrassing.
On 31 Jan 2013, Sue G wrote:
Cambridge 6.45 a.m. Windspeed 17 knots, gusts of 34+ knots. Heavy rain. Would be a blizzard if it weren't nearly 9C. We shall see what happens at the weekend - fascinating times.
On 31 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
Waltham Abbey 30th Jan: substantial flooding in and around farmland. Tree blown over across Avey Lane caused me to swerve to avoid sticky end! Now all eyes on 'possible sleet' due Friday night according to MO. Blizzards and widespread travel chaos it is then. Piers, youve got this SSW thing right!!
On 31 Jan 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:
From Montreal, Canada, January 30th. Record breaking warmth today (15 celsius on the South shore - never heard of in any January!). Gusty winds forecasted for tomorrow (100 k per hour), but no blizzard whatsoever anywhere to be found.
Exceptional and disturbing weather changes.
On 30 Jan 2013, michael wrote:
South Glos @ 600' asl 22:15 hrs
Warm wet start to the day, strong westerly wind, then sunshine and very mild temps up to about 54F. Temps dropping late afternoon. Currently clear skies and fresh 42-44F.
On 30 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
New forcast Belgian Meteo. The earlier predicted wintery showers for the weekend are no longer in the forcast at the moment. Prediction now is for very heavy rain on Friday and on Saturday. Temp rising from 4°C on Saturday to 8°C on Monday. What is interesting now, is the fact that on the longterm temp graphic from our national meteo, you see temperatures hitting 0°C again by end of next week. You see it on the longterm graphic, but the forcaster isn't talking about it yet. Mostly this means they're doubting and somethings up .... I honnestly don't know where this is heading, but I think our nat. meteo doesn't know either. Keep you all posted on my side.
On 30 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Heavy Rain Downpour and Thunder here at approx 9AM
On 30 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
Thank you Paddy for your link:-
http://web.archive.org/web/20080126111006/http://green-agenda.com/
Although initially it appeared to me to be off topic ( I was puzzled as to how / why it was on WeatherAction ) - then ouch ! OMG ! How laudable - an ultimate expression (?) of positivity - the stock market must have been on a long bullish run prior - yet, without a place for the negative expressions ( something in our psyche ?) - so it clearly isn't aimed at humans - only angels, or dehumanized pc souls?? , and with hindsight (?) - seemingly a farce now. Politicians always seems to be so behind the curve of reality –and still are ?
In brief : ( my ‘take’ on it ) so the West won the cold war - or did we ???? because the goalposts shifted - so now our politicians are intent upon us loosing the peace in a truely laudable way- and i thought they were generally a cowardly bunch - giving authority away to EU ( even creating EU . hmmm EEC good, EU ?) - now i suspect it was deliberate ?
On 30 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
I may be clutching at stratospheric straws here, but it seems to me like Piers only needs the wind to swing more northerly and drop a few degrees so as to change the rain to snow and his blizzard will be accomplished. He has the gales and precipitation. I wonder if this sudden warming from the Gulf region was caused by the last lot of stratospheric warming? Archived data will show if this is the case. If I'm right then we should see the same effect in about 10 days time Also, am I right in assuming that the stratospheric warming is the main cause of the erratic north polar ice melt this year? Seems far more logical than a few extra thimbles full of CO2.... CraigM? Piers? .......... Still bitterly cold in the strong wind, very heavy precipitation this afternoon, horizontal showers. Fields and moorland flooded everywhere...again! Road damage is extensive. Bits of tree all over the roads Chesterfield and surrounding area.
On 30 Jan 2013, Sue G wrote:
Wondering when the February forecast will be out? Very windy in Cambridge now, still very mild temperatures. Hoping for significant snow this weekend or an indication in the February forecast of when we'll get snow in the next few weeks.
On 30 Jan 2013, Carl T wrote:
I started subscribing to weatherAction last year, and I have astounded at the accuracy in the forecasts.
For rational people to claim the sun does not drive the weather/climate always leaves me puzzled.
Does it not get colder at night?
I am also looking forward to the Met-O and bbc excuses when the snow starts falling again.
On 30 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Thanks for the advice guys, apologies if I misinterpreted what was being forecast about the start warnings.
On 30 Jan 2013, Clive wrote:
I think the turbulent nature of this winter means that the cold spells may come in bursts rather that any really prolonged spell. There is a much active battleground between warm and cold air this winter than we had for years. It has also been a much wetter winter than recent years as well and much winder than of late. The wet spring and summer 2012 was somehow different to the five years before where the wet weather was concentrated in the summer months. The pattern we are in now seems to have very wet conditions occurring in every season.
On 30 Jan 2013, Daniel Vogler wrote:
@Chris Lee, Its not normal to have double warmings, but it has happened before. And BTW, we are NOT having a second Major warming. He is showing the effects getting down to the Troposphere.
Of the 5 double warming winters from 1958–2010, not one has occurred during an ENSO‐neutral winter. In fact, 3 have occurred during El Niño winters and 2 during La Niña winters, SSWs occur more often during both El Niño and La Niña winters.
If you have any Questions, just find me on FB, I commented on Piers post about it.
On 30 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes the MO-Beeb are conceding the northerly outbreak and a colder spell, but the argument will be over its intensity and duration--they are going for a modest severity and short duration.
On 30 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Breakfast BBC forecast this morning showing snow in Scotland on Thursday and openly admitting that they are still unsure of the track of the low pressure coming in off the Atlantic.
On 30 Jan 2013, Sue wrote:
Hi piers, Met Eireann has come around to your way of thinking for Friday warning of "extensive sleet and snow for a time in the east and south, leading to deposits of snow on high ground and perhaps at lower levels" this will be very impressive Piers for your forecasting!
Ps thank you for sorting my subscription mess up, you are a gentleman.
On 30 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR these well informed Comments. ------ Friday onwards will be VERY INTERESTING and details will be important so please make clear THE DATE TIME AND PLACE of whatever you report ------ STRATOSPHERIC ACTION - CHRIS LEE your question re Is it normal to get two major Strat-Warms back to back? The answer is No in the standard (upper level) sense, indeed well nigh impossible, for which definitions are at the upper level (low pressure) levels. You see from my ammended comment above we have corrected how we say things on this. We are predicting Polar Major Sudden Stratospheric warming EFFECTS, eg the snow blasts, and expect these to be associated with preceding warming in bursts in the lower (higher presure part) of the Stratosphere such as 70mb level graphed here. (NB MarkP AccuW report also looks at such). There are peaks at about 14th & 25th - both above record levels for those dates - followed by (associated) blizzard blasts about 4 to 6 days later ie ~18th & ~31st (coming).
On 29 Jan 2013, sue hull wrote:
Andy, I live south of Belfast, and on Sun 27th the temp didn't get above 5. It was very cold, temp dropped to 3 by 4pm and the wind cut you like a knife! Don't know how they managed to get 11 degrees a little bit down the road! Looking forward to the next few days and hoping for more of the big white stuff. Last time it was too mild here to settle, so it would need to get a lot colder. Enough to build a snowman and we would be satisfied.
On 29 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Two major strat warmings back to back?, is that normal?
On 29 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
@ Richard Pinder - about bloody time too. wrote to my MP about 28 gate etc and am awaiting a reply from her, of course, she is awaiting a reply from the environment department at present, don't think she bothered asking the media lot... there do seem to be some rumblings going on though
very good article on climate Realists - http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=11038
On 29 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Paddy NE... Wow! certainly makes you wonder about the state of some peoples mental health does it not? Bring about the destruction of the industrialised nations? Oh well, maybe the LIA won't send us back to the stone age like a full blown ice age would, but the loony elites will have a damned good try..........Richard, for the Beeb to go up against MENSA they really are looking down the barrel of total defeat. Atmospheric Psychiatry? I wish they had a course on the OU, that would certainly be a degree worth having on ones CV...
On 29 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
No sign of any intense cold blast in standard met models. A day or two of northerlies between low pressure systems is what I'm seeing. Snow in the north, frost in the south, but nothing particularly remarkable for this time of year. If Piers is forecasting more then we have another confrontation!! The models do indicate the potential for colder weather mid-Feb but the MO wouldn't have enough faith in that to say much at the present time.
On 29 Jan 2013, Richard Pinder wrote:
Cont: As we await further developments, it now seems that there is growing cross party support in parliament to look into the bizarre Climate Change policy at the BBC. It is becoming apparent that climate scientists have surprisingly little influence over this policy, and are intimidated by a powerful group of neo-communist journalists, public relations people and green activists.
On 29 Jan 2013, Richard Pinder wrote:
Cont: The Mensa members got that right about the BBC Climate Change seminar. The BBC seem to have been warned by their legal team that “Anthropogenic Global Warming is a fact” would leave open the BBC to legal action for supporting scientific fraud. The BBC Trust told the Mensa members that this was not mentioned or referred to in the BBC Trust Editorial Standards Committee’s finding. That was like saying we know we are biased but you can not take legal action against us because we will not include this in the monthly bulletin of the BBC Trusts Findings. In the scientific method, once you make an assumption, you then try to prove whether that assumption is right or wrong. It is the fact that the assumptions have been proven wrong that is causing all the problems at the BBC.
On 29 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Weather for last few days in Bathgate, Scotland has been very wet, windy and cloudy with temps at night averaging 1c and daytime averaging 4c. As of yesterday the 28/01/2013 the wind got very strong and the rain last night at 2230hrs was the heaviest rain i have driven through in my life, along the A89 from Bathgate to Airdrie, the strong westerly wind hitting the front of my Jeep made it difficult to stay in a straight line, the rain was covering my windscreen faster than the wipers could clear it, this is a 60mph stretch of road and i had to reduce to 35mph so i could see, rain drops were massive. Today the 29/01/2013 was not muck better. Roads and Motorways are flooded with deep floods all over central belt.
On 29 Jan 2013, Richard Pinder wrote:
Cont: (8) Denying the Facts. This last one “Denying the facts” reminds me that this was what got the BBC Trusts knickers in a twist when Mensa members made a complaint. This is from the report in a Mensa publication about this complaint.“Surprisingly the most blatantly biased statement by the BBC said that “Anthropogenic Global Warming is a fact” the IPCC using an assumption says “very likely” and the BBC which claims to be impartial says “fact“. This also does not come from the Royal Society. This evidence proves that the BBC takes a more extremely biased view than the IPCC or the Royal Society and conflicts with the BBC Trusts claim that impartiality is important. This also now leaves open the possibility of legal action against the BBC Trust which has continually refused freedom of information requests for details of how this decision was made by what the BBC calls “the best scientific experts“. I suspect the decision was made by Environmentalists not by Atmospheric Physicists.
On 29 Jan 2013, Richard Pinder wrote:
“Thinking Allowed” Radio 4 at 00.15hrs on Monday. Climate Change Denial: The Laurie Taylor Comedy Show. Yes it WAS, another piece of science censored dogmatic madness, in fact it was another comedy with psychiatrists. Must be the second time this year. I am sure that means that the BBC Climate Change policy for 2013 must be to only debate Climate Science with psychiatrists not atmospheric physicists. They did not specify exactly what was being denied, I assumed they meant denial of AGW, but they did mention denial of weird weather. A case of being pig ignorant of the science, but absolutely certain of what is being denied. They did not talk to anyone, not even a scientist, classed as a denier. But suggested these reasons for “The Psychiatry of Denial“:(1) They have a vested political interest in denial.(2) Denying reality is part of the grief process.(3) Turning a blind eye.(4) A culture of denial.(5) Too much reality, so they block it off.(6) They cannot bare the truth.(7) Repression.
On 29 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Up here in Aberdeen, 2 days in a row from the same template: bright start, then clouding over and moderate to heavy rain in the afternoon, 5-6˚C, MO yellow gale warning for Wed & Thu. Looking forward to frost again as we have drains to put in.
On 29 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
@ Nick and all: further to my post lower down, have a look at this http://web.archive.org/web/20080126111006/http://green-agenda.com/, from which the following gem was culled: -- "Isn't the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn't it our responsiblity to bring that about?"
- Maurice Strong, former Secretary General of UNEP -- Ring a bell?
On 29 Jan 2013, rob wrote:
Congratulations Piers on getting onto BBC TV. I always thought you said you were on some kind of BBC guest blacklist so the mere fact that you were given airtime is a breakthrough. Hopefully this appearance is the thin end of the wedge.
On 29 Jan 2013, Mark wrote:
It's 13C widely over S England & the Midlands at the moment, but Piers' 2nd cold blast around 2 Feb looks like it'll arrive on cue. If it does I wonder if we'll see something of a repeat of Jan/Feb 1985 ?
That Jan saw record breaking cold in W. Europe, especially France, and severe blizzards, both worse than we've seen so far this winter. It was followed by around 10 days of mild, then very mild, weather, before the cold returned with a vengeance for the middle 2 weeks of Feb.
What do the other commenters think about this possible scenario ?
On 29 Jan 2013, Sue wrote:
14C here in Dublin in a strong SW wind, very mild.
On 29 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Ann... well spotted. It's not until you put your detective head on and start looking for inconsistencies and contradictions that you begin to realise how much we are being deceived. From the constant un-scientific tampering with raw temperature data, to things like this, which I'm sure will be put down to human error, a 'typo' or some other benign cause. A degree or two I can accept but 8C? The more you look, the more you will find I'm afraid. £260 million to make lots of errors! Not very good value for money. Not very skilled staff.. Just imagine someone making errors as big as this in the nuclear industry....... or banking.... "It's ok, it's only 8% ..... yes of £200 million worth of share holders wealth...." Could trigger a banks collapse... ahem!!!
On 29 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Contd./) the way these lobbyists take that natural and laudable trait and exploit it using "good" (in terms of effectiveness) manipulation techniques in combination with bad science! Resulting in the ugly reality of an extra cost per year of £2.6Bn and 2,700 extra deaths. Helped by professional (i.e. by definition, corrupt) politicians raking in extra tax, imposing extra restraints, and feathering their own and their friends' nests. So there we have it - "The good, the bad and the ugly" and all for a "Fistful of dollars"!! Now that last bit wasn't at all contrived.... Sorry!
On 29 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Contd./) heliocentricity and plate tectonics are now. Given the number of scientists who are now leaning away from CO2 global warming and towards the sun being the main climate driver, I would say Piers' methods have already moved well away from fringe science have become a significant (and growing) minority view. I also didn't like her use of the phrase "fringe views like solar flares". Dismissing the whole body of sun-driven climate theory with "solar flares" as if that's all there is to it, is typical of lobbyists - they are far more interested in manipulating public opinion than in informing public opinion - because of course they don't need to inform us so we can make up our own minds because they have looked at the evidence (not!) and their evangelical mission is to save the world by manipulating us into the same conclusions as them. There are of course many valid environmental concerns, and most people naturally want to look after the planet. But I am sickened by (Contd./
On 29 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Steve, Dorset. Thanks for posting iPlayer time of Piers' bit on Sunday Politics show, and thanks to Piers for posting times and link. Turns out Piers bit was in the local section of the programme. It wasn't in the Welsh version of the programme which I recorded - presumably it was only in the London version - because of course a Little Ice Age will be restricted to the London area!!! Interesting manipulation from the Green spokeswoman using the derogatory term "fringe science". ALL new, ground-breaking science (as opposed to mere refinement of existing theory) is by definition fringe! Obviously some (most?) fringe science is destined to remain unproven, but equally obviously some is proven in due course and becomes main-stream (at least 'til a better theory replaces it!). The Earth moving around the sun (heliocentricity) & continental drift (plate tectonics) were both fringe sciences when first postulated. I'm pretty confident Piers' methods will become as accepted as (Contd./
On 29 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
Intense storm off the Norfolk coast at midnight Saturday (http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=) according to 00z models today. Winds swing round to the north heralding potential for heavy precipitation and snowfall on back edge as it clears south.
The iceman cometh...
On 29 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
It is looking like we are going to get a short cold spell lasting a few days according to met charts with a warm front coming in from the west after the weekend.
On 28 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgian national MetO is turning to colder weather this weekend with possible wintry showers... Seems it's getting interesting again !!
Craig, I hope you're not hoping that Belgian MetO would consider Piers way of working or even look at it. They're all CO2 brainwashed. They make you sick with all theyr stories about "save the planet", "drive a greener car". If you ask me they're sponsored by the government...
On 28 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Chris Lee: yes indeed Chris, you can still check it on the BBC Weather site.
On 28 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Just been told that Country file on the TV are saying snow forecast for the weekend, I wonder who's forecast they've been looking at lol!
On 28 Jan 2013, Ann wrote:
Hi. Yesterday the UK met office showed a temperature of 11 c for Dublin airport. At the same time Met Eireann showed 3 c. for Dublin. At that time we had several snow showers here in Wicklow!
On 28 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Also Andy, you may have had no frosts where your home is situated but Worcestershire has had plenty of frosts, in fact from the 13th to the 25th of January there was a frost every single day, with -3C on the 16th and -4C on the 25th just a few days ago many of these freezing temperatures are daytime temperatures too. Those temperatures are for Worcester itself but considering it's a city, then those temperatures have far more importance.....
On 28 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Andy.... I note that 3 of the 4 places you mention having well above the Jan average temperature are all in the far south of the UK i.e. mildest regions, and the fourth is in Ireland which is also renowned for it's mild weather. While Tewksbury is basking in 11C we in NE Derbyshire still have lots of snow and ice around. I noticed a large, deep pond which froze over last week is still almost completely frozen and melt water is starting to freeze again. The only serious melting we had was during the heavy rain on Friday night. Lots of tracks are still iced over. We found very wet snow 2 feet deep yesterday above 1200ft. How deep it was before the rain I can only guess. This melting and re-freezing is very bad for drivers and pedestrians, because it makes convex blobs of dirty white ice which can look like harmless slush until you tread on them, followed by flailing arms and repeated expletives. Cold today but not as bitter due to less wind-chill. Almost a southerly wind too.
On 28 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Well at least the Beeb, got the snow icons for the 'thaw' in the Grampians, partially correct. Here at 140 metres altitude in Highland Perthshire it started snowing with big wet flakes at 14-15hrs. This is indicative of 'proper' snow for the higher parts of the A9 and other upper roads in the area. Not quite as benign as in the earlier forecast this morning.
On 28 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Disappointed that Piers' forecast did not quite pan out, MO prediction of being swamped by Atlantic lows turned out to be correct on this occasion. Although I'm happy to see the snow disappear for now, am looking forward to hard ground again by the weekend to progress work. @Nick Stoneman: Mark Twain said in the 19th century (!): "If you don't read the papers, you're uninformed, if you read the papers, you are misinformed!" Governments are a front for the global corporations and do their bidding, the media are the grease in the whole system of deception. If you have the money to spare, get Jon Rappoport's "The Matrix Revealed", he spells it all out in interviews with a former insider. http://www.nomorefakenews.com/ I know this is off topic, but it's very relevant to the whole CO2 scam, you can see clearly how it's done.
On 28 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
@ Craig M - i would suggest a collaboration between Piers and Simon Keeling of Weather Web (weather online) he is a very highly regarded forecaster, i have been following his daily look ahead vids for sometime and he is far more reliable than the Beeb or Met o - has been fascinating learning how to read charts and seeing how they change so quickly to come in line with Piers forecasts, obviously the unpredictable changes in solar activity will always put a spanner in the works - there is nothing anyone can do about that, although i am sure that the lag time from noticing the occurrence to the actual change in weather once an event has occurred could be used to provide better reliability at 3 days or so - nothing wrong with that
On 28 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
the very fact that they felt they had to discredit you on TV (haven't watched) when they have sworn to keep you off the beeb means that Boris' article was doing the trick and the powers that be are running scared... There will be intelligent people at the Beeb, Met O and other government Orgs, slowly but surely it will come out as people realise, its not all adding up. slowly slowly catch a monkey...or whatever ;-) there's a lot of brainwashing to be undone and people on the whole don't like change or feeling that they have been lied to an a grand scale, resistance is (or will be) futile though... in the end you can not escape the truth
On 28 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Reading between the lines, the hoohah and the met office guerrilla tactics, it would appear that the following are true:
1. Piers' forecast of snow and sharp frosts for mid-January were spot on, almost to the day.
2. The last 5 days of the month may have seen a slight deviation from forecast, but the milder conditions were forecast, if not to the degree which actually happened.
If you think logically, you expect the last bit of the month to have the greatest risk of deviation, hence to get 26 days right is pretty impressive.
Does suggest the value of re-visiting the forecast 3 weeks after it is made to see if conditions have changed?? Any sane person would accept that that is pragmatic when dealing with complex systems like weather on earth........
On 28 Jan 2013, JohnE wrote:
Very interesting times. After the severe thaw in what was whitest Bury i was expecting almost tropical weather for a week or so. Yes it has warmed up but only slightly, this morning we had frost and temperatures of around 0C, now as we approach lunchtime those temperatures have only risen to 1.5C or max 2C and the wind is bitter and biting. Looking forward to watching how this next series of events unfolds and by the way it is very clear to me that building snowmen as per the Environment suggestion and the new law passed by COBRA under their emergency ruling made no difference to the rate of snow loss during the thaw. Wonder why!!!!!!!!!!!!
On 28 Jan 2013, Andy wrote:
Max temps on Sunday (27th) include: Exeter Airport 12.1c / Pershore 11.6c / Belfast 11.4c / Heathrow 10.7c (source: Ogimet)
I'd say that's pretty mild for January! Snow long gone here in Worcestershire, though it was never very substantive to start with. Unusual winter so far - not had any really sharp frosts since early Dec. Hopefully Feb will deliver where Jan failed?
On 28 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
The issue with Piers+MetO blend is they are like oil and water. The models are like a house with poor foundations -no matter how good the house itself (solar panels , gold fittings etc) it will fall down sooner than later. Simply putting Piers theories on top of the MetOs will not resolve the central issues. With so much invested I doubt we'll see them look to the foundations instead we will have papering over of cracks. Yes MetO forecasts do work to a degree but so did our theoriesof the universe when we thought the sun revolved around us! Maybe another private company or MetO in a diff country would be open minded enough & willing to invest in such a project unhinged from the CO2 delusion. I'm not going to hold my breath!
On 28 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont..."Before the discovery of Göbekli Tepe, archaeologists believed that societies in the early Neolithic were organized into small bands of hunter-gatherers and that the first complex religious practices were developed by groups that had already mastered agriculture. Scholars thought that the earliest monumental architecture was possible only after agriculture provided Neolithic people with food surpluses, freeing them from a constant focus on day-to-day survival. A site of unbelievable artistry and intricate detail, Göbekli Tepe has turned this theory on its head." Link>> http://archive.archaeology.org/0811/abstracts/turkey.html <
On 28 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
MetO predicted frost for N/NE last night so was suprised to see a frost in the South this morning although the clear skies (great for sky watching as mentioned below) should have made me apply common sense. Whilst I live in the country I am only a few miles from major conurbations. The South is hardly miles of open fields! +++ Russ you probably remember the ridicule Graham Hancock was subject to including a hatchet job by BBC Horizon because he challenged orthodox beliefs. Sound familiar?...cont...
On 28 Jan 2013, steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Waste heat from cities can effect weather hundreds of miles away, Quack science, It's the sun stupid,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2269215/Waste-heat-generated-buildings-large-cities-affect-climate-thousands-miles-away.html
On 28 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Steve P.: Yes indeed and did you notice how often during this 'mild period' that the snow icons featured over Scotland and Cumbria, in Alex Deakins BBC week-ahead forecast. Then of course he mentions the colder prospect from Friday the 1st of February---now who was that guy that predicted a return of cold at the end of January/start of Feb? all those many days ago!?
On 28 Jan 2013, Steve P wrote:
As Bill says, other forecasters and models are now coming round to the idea it will be cold from 1 Feb onwards, see the temp forecasts form Simon Keeling for weatherweb based on the ECMWF -5 in London from 3 Feb
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsecmoptemps.php
On 28 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorser,UK wrote:
Nick Stoneman the piece by piers is as follows;
51.30 mins in
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q3sv1/Sunday_Politics_London_27_01_2013/
Enjoy
On 28 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
27-1-13 @ 12.00 Midnight, 7 miles north of Carmarthen @ 300 ft above sea level (asl). It's freezing here - significant ice on the cars needing a fair bit of de-icing. Air temp. about +1 Celsius. Definitely not mild! Beautiful clear night with about 50% cloud cover and a bright moon. Stars were bright at about 19.00 before the full moon brightened the sky so much. I recorded the Sunday Politics Show and watched it back in fast-forward - I didn't see Piers bit and thought the Beeb had scrubbed it. Can someone please tell me how far in Piers bit is so I can find and watch it? Many thanks. Nick
On 27 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Hi everyone, snow in Belgium is almost completely gone. Yesterday at 1.30 am when driving home it was already 3°c. This morning heavy rain until noon and this afternoon sunny with temps around 10°C. I think it's fair to say this thaw was really efficient and .... warm. I wonder what winter is bringing next and yes indeed, 1 thaw doesn't make spring....
On 27 Jan 2013, Bill smith wrote:
Looks like mo and other"forecasters" area ly now, possibly coming round to your forecast for next weekend .
The first of the February surprises!
On 27 Jan 2013, Bill smith wrote:
Hi Piers recorded the politics show off sky and was disappointed that the bbc decided to hound Boris' Environment spokesman, making out that anyone not into the co2 camp is not to be taken seriously. Pity you were not given live coverage as I am sure that the ignorance of the reporter would easily be exposed.By the way interesting to see the mild snow in Scotland on the NBC forecast tonight!
On 27 Jan 2013, Man Bearpig wrote:
Now I know why they call it a 'Yellow Snow Warning' - it's because the Met office continually take the pi##
On 27 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
27-1-13 @ 17.36, 7 miles north of Carmarthen @ 300 ft above sea level (asl). It's cold, wet and raw here. 6 Celsius (may even be down to 5 by now - that was 30 minutes ago in the car) with frequent hail showers, and a biting wind. I'd rather have the cold and snow than this exceptionally mild (not) period the Met Office touted! According to Accuweather, the average temperature for today for this area is 7 Celsius. It is NOT particularly mild here - being so far west we should be much warmer with all the warm Atlantic air the Met Office promised. Piers admits this period is warmer than he forecast. But yet again, even allowing for this underestimate of temperature, Piers is more accurate from 6 weeks ahead than conventional forecasters can manage from a day ahead. They're a joke.
On 27 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
So the BBC didn't have the guts to show Piers' piece! Well done Piers - you have have done such a convincing job that no matter how they edited it, the film would not have suited their warmist agenda! The BBC has too much to lose. They'll lose face when Warmism proves to be the failed theory it is. The establishment will not be happy with them if they give any publicity to opposing evidence, especially when it results in the Warmist gravy train of profiteering & subsidy being derailed. Plus of course the BBC pension fund has already lost £2bn on its carbon credits investments (sorry, not investments - bare-faced speculation in a politically created pseudo-market). I feel sorry for all those BBC employees who will lose their pensions - but not as sorry as I do for the 2,700 people killed each winter as a result of the extra fuel-poverty Warmist policies have caused. History is littered with the corpses of those killed by fanaticism. And we call ourselves Homo sapiens! Not very wise.
On 27 Jan 2013, daveC wrote:
+7C here today in Suffolk following heavy rain at 4 am. Worst floods following snow melt and rain for past 12 years. I was looking forward to the minus 20 C. Is the Scandinavian cold to win the battle?
On 27 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
..>> http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_atl_modelsml.html <<.. ..... Click on the 7 day - 6 hourly animation and see how far that Jet Stream has wandered. I can understand how Piers expected a Greenland high.
On 27 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Cor blimey guvnor! It aint 'alf cold in that strong wind, talk about wind-chill.... I may have been a bit premature calling it a heatwave........... east side.. re: winter tyres. I have been very tempted but still haven't gone for a set. We just had a set of budget Chinese tyres as we have done for about the past decade and I've been well impressed by their abilities in snow, ice, slush etc. But then, we both drive carefully. Watching other people drive in icy conditions is enough to make us save up for a Hummer, just for the protection they give. I can understand why people need winter tyres to flash through roundabouts in the snow at 40mph+. But that's always been the case in the UK. As each new safety measure has been implemented by the government, drivers have simply sped up. Seatbelts, ABS, Windbags, crumple zones and now ShellGrip surfacing. People hurtle around faster today than ever before. It starts snowing in our town, drivers speed up, crazy sods!
On 27 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
Also, kudos to Piers for admitting when something hasn't quite gone to plan as this is something I don't remember the Met Office ever doing. In fact, did Michael Fish not get used as the scapegoat for them when they got the storms of the early 90's drastically wrong? Anyway, as I said a couple of days ago and William Downie then repeated, if the Met were to take piers forecast, program that into their supercomputer then do some human analysis using Joe Bastardi's model reading skills, I fully believe that forecast could be near enough to 100% accuracy. This, as William quite rightly said would however require some serious bridge building. @Piers. Have you ever offered the Met Office to have a peaceful sit down discussion about how to advance both your forecasts? I dare you to apply for the space weather scientist job they have been advertising. :-)
On 27 Jan 2013, larkduke wrote:
Met eireann, said today would be milder, 10 degs or so and rain. Sitting in my car on the curragh, its currently 3 degs and just after a rather heavy wet snow shower. Not sticking mind but I've seen more snow in this mild spell than in the recent 'cold spell' go figure. The wizard of weather Piers Corbyn has once again waved his wand of wrath at those wizened wannabes.
On 27 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
First of all congratulations to Piers for the forecast running up to this weekend. It is as you put it, less cold here in FK10, definitely not mild though as its roughly 3 degrees. It is however as the Met office have forecast for the past few days absolutely chucking it down with big icy rain and the snow that has been lying about all week and been topped up a couple of times has got a serious fright, the only bits still lying are big frozen lumps.There is a bitter wind and I'm pretty glad that I live on top of a hill as the valley and the regular areas for flooding will be as we say in Scotland "gettin it tight". As I said in a previous post the Met Office have a fairly decent success rate for short scale forecasting during "normal" solar activity periods. Piers' forecast of another SSW at end of Jan beginning Feb comes to fruition then I do however fully expect the Met Office to be totally stumped as per usual during these times.
On 27 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
Watched your 60 seconds of airtime on the Politics Show. Did they edit much out Piers? You came across with solid arguments and challenged scientists to actually prove their theories of CO2 pushing Global Warming/ Climate Change. All eyes on a stormy then colder week ahead...
On 27 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Currently +3 Celsius with chill factor of -3 C. cloudy with drizzling rain and fair amount of wind. Forecast for 80% chance of continuous changing mild weather with a 20% chance of recurrent cold with snow. Hmm.
On 27 Jan 2013, Yamkin wrote:
Nicholas Stern: 'I got it wrong on climate change – it's far, far worse' -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/27/nicholas-stern-climate-change-davos
On 27 Jan 2013, Lorraine G wrote:
I tend to agree with Matt, Piers does tend to sensationalise his forecasts which set him up for a fall if his forecast fails.I have been a subscriber for many years and do find his forecasts fairly accurate, however I wonder if it would be possible for Piers to issue 5 day regional forecasts and weather warnings to subscribers as an option to be paid for of course,along with the 45 day and monthly options.
On 27 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Sunday Politics Show (Piers interview) delayed 'til after the tennis. C'mon Murray! I just hope the Beeb don't edit Piers' bit out of all recognition. Andy Thomas (author of "The Truth Agenda") tells how a TV channel (I think it was Channel 4) interviewed him and 2 colleagues for over 2 hours. Thomas was very pleased with the depth of discussion and the pertinence of the questions asked. The editing reduced the finished showing to less than 2 minutes, only covered the most flippant of points, and made the 3 interviewees look like complete idiots. The media are not there to inform. Superficially they are there to entertain, just as the Roman emperors kept the people diverted with the hideous savagery of the Roman circus. The real purpose of the media is to misinform, to maintain the status quo. There are some people in the media who try to inform - let's hope the Sunday Politics Show people are of that ilk.
On 27 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Nothing in the GFS charts that indicate either a Greenland high or a Scandinavian high developing but the on/off supply of Polar Maritime air to the UK, especially Scotland and the north of England, caused by the interplay of mid Atlantic high pressure and north Atlantic low pressure looks set to throw up some interesting cooler-milder contrasts in early Feb.
On 27 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
YAY.....Heatwave! The models got it right for once. That was a massive dollop of heat which came straight of the Gulf making a beeline for the NE Atlantic. Didn't bother taking the usual circuitous route following the Gulf-Stream. What we have to work out is what caused this anomaly. It's an LIA signature event for sure, massive swing from very cold to very warm. Just 10 days after the coldest day of the year too. Blimey! I just looked at the 7 day Jet-Stream animation and it's pretty obvious what caused the warm air to get dragged across the Atlantic. With the Jet sitting almost on the equator across the Atlantic (slight exaggeration) well around 30ºN. This is interesting because this latitude has some very important historic connections.... >>> http://www.grahamhancock.com/forum/CreightonS4.php?p=1 <<<
On 27 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
What's the JS forecast?, and why are we going to get harsh winters by 2017?
Just curious that's all
On 27 Jan 2013, Ros wrote:
Well done so far Piers, excellent work. After checking a range of weather sites this morning it has become clear that most are going for snow/cold from around the 10th - will be waiting to see who is right, but I already have a pretty good idea!
On 27 Jan 2013, kevin wrote:
Watched weather forecast at 7.55 last night rain over Wales ,we not only had rain but fantastic thunderstorms ,somebody at the met should be fired because the amount of rain caused flooding and could have put people lives at risk.
On 27 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset.UK wrote:
Solar panels have the effect of shedding the snow and yes it builds up at there base and when it gets a bit warmer it all slides off the roof with a whoosh, not so good if you are standing underneath when it happens.Lucky nothing in the way like a conservatory.
The MO critics are probably frustrated because the MO tell us nothing about how they get to there forecasts and are a bit of a closed shop and closed mind to other ways like piers,Science should be for our good not used as a religion like the warmists have got away with of late.
P.S. Glad you liked the Vid.
On 27 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Re the Mo. Lets at least try to distinguish between a) the actual MO forecast, by which I mean the one delivered by person, or written words and b) the forecast which appears on websites and in the media. The first is generally good - they will generally highlight where the biggest uncertainties are in the forecast so that we can tell how much faith to have in the forecast. As others on here have mentioned, the true forecast does not always dumb down well to a single picture on a web page. Clearly there is some disconnect - it is quite likely that the web pages link directly to the model output, with no human interaction. Even if there is human interaction, there are times where a single cloud and temperature for a whole region for a whole day can simply not tell us everything we need to know to prepare for that day. So the tales on here of " the MO said x and I've got y" tells us less abotu the accuracy of the forecast, and more about the limitations of the forecast delivery method (a
On 26 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
A crisp clear day has turned into a rainy night, now 2˚C at 10 pm. Not as forecast by Piers but still within the +/- 1 day margin of possibility. What will happen to the Atlantic Low? Will the Greenland High come down further? - Shaun, Fed_Up, Mark: I've started taking screen shots of MO 5 day forecasts for Aberdeen morning and night and comparing them over time, they do change all the time indeed, sometimes quite drastically. I don't have time for looking up records and doing precise measurements, I just go by the feel of the weather; from experience, Piers is most certainly right way more often than the MO.
On 26 Jan 2013, east side wrote:
I'm afraid anyone with access to the JS forecast could easily see a forecast made in Dec would come unstuck about now, because of the vagaries of this supply of warm air.
This is not to say Piers was inaccurate, he did actually forecast a fairly important snow arrival at the right time, and very likely people will be eating their words when it comes back again around the 2nd Feb.
For now you all have a nice break, with balmy southerly & westerly winds while we in eastern Europe continue to have a harsh winter.
Welcome back to the world of our cold winters in about a week, and again UK MO have NOT forecast anything of the sort!
Like one swallow doesn't make a summer, one thaw doesn't make a spring, and when you talk about a general cooling trend, well wait until 2017!
It will make all this snow of the last week in the UK look like ice cream on the beach.
It's about time you adopted our scandinavian laws about obligatory winter tyres after November. They will be needed!
On 26 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Steve, Dorset - loved the vid! Many thanks for posting the link - http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xoe5Vjl90-o
On 26 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
With regards to criticism of the mo/beeb I see no problem with it, as long as we criticise their forecasts and methods. It only becomes a problem if there is name calling and such like. Attacking the person rather than their methods means we leave the realm of science and enter muck flinging however deserved it may be. The met offices failures has left them wide open to attack, we as taxpayers have every right to question just how badly they get it wrong.
On 26 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ Matt. Perhaps we would have more success at winning the Anthropogenic Global Warming/Little Ice Age (AGW/LIA) argument if we didn't criticise the Met Office. But given that they so actively promote AGW it's difficult not to bash them. Remember that the AGW inspired Climate Change Act not only costs us £2,600,000,000 a year, it also kills 2,700 people in the UK each winter - http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/news/archives/2011/10/fuelpoverty.aspx Perhaps anger & frustration at their propaganda contributing to so many deaths is no excuse for undermining our arguments with an emotional response, but my God, it's difficult. Especially when they are so arrogant as to repeatedly and publicly state that "No one can forecast the weather more than a few days ahead." Doubly offensive - not only are such statements arrogantly saying "We can't do it, so nobody can" - they are also conditioning the general public to disbelieve any alternative explanation of how weather and climate work.
On 26 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Hi Piers and all, tried to post this last night but no signal on phone due to the dense snow falling at 2350hrs Bathgate, Scotland, heavy snow falling lasted a hour then turned to sleet. Temps at midnight minus 2c then temps fell to minus 5c by 0630hrs, Saturday. Everything frozen solid and thick frost. At 0800hrs thr sun came out and it was a lovely, chilly, winters morning, there was a bit of a thaw through the rest pf the day due to the +1c heatwave, still a lot of snow lying aroung as of 1730hrs and light sleet falling. Now three days ago Meto forecast +6c for us today on bbc1 weather, this morning they forecast +5c on bbc1, go onto there website and temps are +1c up to +3c, this is not good forecasting, they are guessing, or is the higher temps they give out calculated with the Global Warming computer and the temps closer to the truth taken from your forecast so they dont completely look like fools.
On 26 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
...contd. If the freezing level drops down again then it'll be horrendous here again tomorrow morning.Coming back from Stirling today, there was a distinct line along the Ochil Hills at roughly 250-300ft separating the land which has had little or mostly wet snow/sleet and the land above which has been mostly snow. It very much resembles the tide mark you sea on dry docks or the line you get round the bath when you've had a good soak after some particularly muddy activity,say returning from a music festival having spent 3 or 4 days in a muddy field without proper facilities. @Piers, I assume you saw the report about the 5 lorries carrying wind turbine equipment up to a windfarm in Angus having to spend a week in a layby due to the road up to the windfarm being impassible and closed off by snow.
On 26 Jan 2013, Gfunaksaurus wrote:
The saga continues. FK10 on top of a hill at the east end of the Carse of Stirling. Since yesterdays update it continued to snow quite steadily with some major bursts of intensity. Approximately 6pm it started to be wet snow then drizzle sleet, then misty rain then it stopped. Another wee burst of heavy wet snow about midnight then mostly clear skies resulting in pretty horrendous conditions when I went out to get the bus this morning at 9.30. Where the snow had been cleared from pavements there was a thin coating of solid ice and everywhere there was between 2 and 4 inches of solid snow. It was dry and bright with clear skies most of the morning with a modicum of heat from the sun but never seeing its full potential. since lunchtime the clouds have been creeping in and its not what I would call mild. There has been a mild thaw where there hadn't been any snow left from Mon/Tues. Going from the radars theres a big load of wetness coming in from the west........
On 26 Jan 2013, Matt B wrote:
Lets talk about solar panels shall we. Well they save you money do they??? 1) Apart from when a tile under the panels goes porous and you can not get to to them because of the panels. How are you supposed to get to the tiles? 2) has anybody noticed when the Snow starts to melt the snow runs down the smooth panels and builds up at the bottom of the panels and then ends up smashing through your Conservatory. My freind is a tiler many reports.(NOT GOOD) They don't tell you this when you buy them do they!!! LOL :-)
On 26 Jan 2013, William Downie wrote:
Regarding criticism of the Met Office, I've said myself below that they are no longer fit for purpose, and I can understand some of the disparaging statements made by others here. But we've had our fun now and any further trashing of the Met Office will only create more antagonism between the two camps. Personally, I think that a combination of the Met Office's usually excellent short-term forcecasts (except when there's snow imminent!) and WeatherAction's now proven accuracy in medium and long range forcasting would give us a weather forecasting service second to none. But before the two forces can be joined bridges have to be built.
On 26 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Time to 'Faites vos jeux' peoples... Here comes the next lot. Last lot of snow was predicted to fall as rain until that was changed at the 11th hour to snow. So what will happen when all that warm moist air hits the UK 'again' which is still under freezing conditions? Overnight too when it's generally at it's coldest. Will the skies stay relatively clear while the temperature drops, or will the cloud encroach and keep the temperatures up as dark approaches? This is nail-biting territory. Buckets full of particles slamming into the poles and winding up the Atlantic swirly thing. It came rattling in all the way directly from the Gulf of Mexico so it should bring warmth, but then it's been dragging in cold air from the Greenland area so a perfect mixture for precipitation of some sort. Should see clearer skies persist behind the front so could be freezing rain by dawn.... Could be a heatwave like the Met predict! ...ack..it...argh...erg...uh....coronary embolism...too much excitment!
On 26 Jan 2013, Kris wrote:
...I really hope this doesn't come across as rude but my fear is that at present you are covering your backs and merely taking aim at standard meteorology rather than focusing on improving what is already a very impressive forecasting technique.
Time will tell but at present, it seems to have been a case of some very big hits, but some equally big misses for your forecast at the moment, and unfortunately whilst your projection of the cold spell to the day from some distance away was really very impressive (and once again kudos for that), the big misses mean that at present I remain unconvinced that a subscription from me is worth it. However, I continue to monitor the progress of your forecasts as best as possible, and my views on this may well change in the near future. Cold at the moment looks to be coming back around 7-10 days into February, so it will be fascinating to see if your projections of more 'blizzardy' outbreaks comes to fruition in late jan/early feb. Best of luck!
On 26 Jan 2013, Kris wrote:
...it hasn't prevented the atlantic low pressure systems from winning the battle for the time being at least.
"We stated anyway this period would be 'less cold' (than previous period) on our forecast maps first issued mid Dec" - a little contradictory to the Greenland high ridging scenario, but I get where you are coming from. In truth, we will not know how overstated the temps may/may not have been from the Met Office for a few days yet.
This is what confuses me the most: "The event detail is less cold than we expected in our 5 week ahead forecast but nevertheless the timing and our warning of standard short range (MetO) forecast errors have been well confirmed" Yes indeed they have been incorrect, but would efforts and resources not be more wisely aimed at predicting what will happen as opposed to predicting where the Met Office will fail? I saw no mention from the public warnings of the snowfall last night from you, for example...
On 26 Jan 2013, Fed_Up wrote:
@Shaun Faulkner. That matches my observations as well. The forecast even differs between the national forecast and the regional forecast that follows immediately afterwards on the Beeb. I wonder how much human interpretation goes into MO forecasts. My suspicion is that once the MO computer spews the forecast out, then that is the forecast. My sense is that WA spends much more time interpreting the data that forms the basis of their forecasts. Could be wrong, but I totally agree that the MO website is full of startling contradictions - sometimes on the same web page! Actually, whilst Piers seems to use sound science, I now think it is the MO that need to sacrifice some goats before they try forecasting - they can't do any worse, surely?
On 26 Jan 2013, Justin wrote:
Hi Piers, Excellent work ref to your forecast so far. However, I am somewhat keen to hear more from you in regard to this "warming" period. How long do you think it will last? How do you think the weather will play out now for the remainder of Jan compared to your forecast? Itching to hear more of your thoughts on this. Will we in Bournemouth, Dorset get some of that lovely white stuff after all? Cheers Piers. Keep up the good work!!
On 26 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Snowing here in NE Netherlands, with wind chill of nearly -10 C. Temp predictions for this week near 11 + C with strong SW winds. KNMI saying temps will "rise above freezing" this night and predicts rain for Sunday morning. They talk about 'slippery roads' for this evening but fail to mention that rain falling on ground which has been intensely frozen for weeks will freeze as well. I'm just waiting for all the accidents to happen - as usual.
On 26 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Think of it this way 'matt'. If your boss asks if you could work next weekend, he gives you time to consider it, re-organise any plans you may have made, and helps you to help him. If he comes to you at 5pm on Friday and asks if you can come in at 6am in the morning, it's a bit late when you have plans to catch a train to the seaside with your family at 8am. This is why the Met forecasts are useless. People need more than 3 hours to plan for 5 inches of snow dropping on their works car park. Piers is slated for saying snow when it turns out mild 45 days ahead, yet the Met Office do this daily, 365 days a year, then spout that they are world leaders with their forecast accuracy. They publicly open themselves up to ridicule.
On 26 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
matt.... "But please can we stop with the "met office are rubbish" posts" ........ I would refrain from such postings 'but it is the truth' and not even an exaggeration, plus, have you seen the things Piers is called on other forums? I believe we don't single out people like Mr Harrabin and call him a lunatic and a crank and a solar activity denier. I think it shows the anger people are beginning to feel by the sheer incompetence of an institution which sucks in tax-payer dollars at an incredibly fast and exponentially increasing rate, yet continually spits out useless forecasts even hours ahead. The Mets supporters then jump up and down on Piers for being slightly innacurate with his timing or for missing one snow shower within a 45 day period. So I don't think we are being unduly antagonistic or unfair. Talking nicely about the Met Office will not gain Piers any ground in the fight for a superior and useful forecasting theory..he will still be rubbished as a fringe scientist
On 26 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
I give credit where credit is due, the MO have been bang on the money here. They said 8c today, currently 7.7c. Looking forward to the 31st and the start of the next big predition!
On 26 Jan 2013, Nicholas Harrison wrote:
Further to my comments on the Temperature range from the MO, just before midday MO weatherstation at Herstmonceux is showing 5.3C, Eastbourne Sea Front weatherstation is showing 7.9C, and my garden, 3 miles inland is 7.5C. Blue sky, some high, whispy, thin clouds, and a light SW breeze. Front hit after 11.30 last night, and it would appear we only had rain.
MO Chart till Tuesday shows the Lows out West sending stuff in, and pushing back the High in Central Europe with the High in Greenland not showing much at all. So much uncertainty. Very enthralling.
On 26 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Today is a brilliant blue sky day like we haven't seen for ages. The thaw only lasted yesterday with temps around 1˚C, frosty night thereafter, now crunchy underfoot. This mornings Bracknell map http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html is beginning to shape up like Piers' EU possible pressure map, let's see how it goes now...
On 26 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK. wrote:
This is cold and funny.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xoe5Vjl90-o
Enjoy
On 26 Jan 2013, Chrissy wrote:
It's still deep snow here in Pennine West Yorkshire but I have to say there is a most spectacular thaw going on. So maybe mainstream weather forecasts got this bit right at least?
On 26 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgium, forcast for today was slight snow. Instead we have heavy snowfall here in Gent for the moment and it doesn't look like it's going to stop within the hour. Temp is currently - 1°C.
Rain should follow tonight and tomorrow. I wonder....
On 26 Jan 2013, Shaun Faulkner wrote:
cont...I can understand when it comes to the chaotic weather but when it comes to detailing the avg. of numbers from an event that has already happened so the numbers are not variable or prone to change.
Anyway, I was thinking in a democratic country where our representatives ignore their people, and waste huge amounts of taxes on a failing service. There is nothing stopping us the people doing an independent investigation into the MO and it's ever changing forecast. As long as info is recorded accurately then there would be no denying the results. It could be as simple as each week print their full forecast of a set region; hour by hour, temps, rain, snow, sun, warnings and maps etc. Then day by day print and analyse each day of the week as it happens, comparing what actually happened with their week ahead forecast and with any changes they make to the forecast (which numerous times a day). Do this for s year & mass publish the results across the internet.
On 26 Jan 2013, Shaun Faulkner wrote:
cont... For example, I like to use the Map that displays the colour warnings. So that is all I look at from the MO. In this last week my brother said to me it's going to snow later according to the MO, and I told him it doesn't say that. On 2 different areas of the same site you can find contradictory information.
Another example was November 2012. I was arguing how there there had been a number of months below average temps in the UK for 2012 and I thought that it was no longer colder than average as it had been cold so much it was becoming the norm and not just an anomaly. Anyway, that's not important. Some posted a link from MO data and showed me that I was wrong and that November was not below avg. according to the MO. I knew that had to be true because I was following the weather intensely this year and when I searched through the MO I found a number of pages that said November was below average. How can MO data show contradictory information like that? ...
On 26 Jan 2013, Shaun Faulkner wrote:
I'm hearing a lot of people say how the Met and the BBC contradict themselves and each other while constantly changing their forecasts. The same for me, yesterday it to be a low of 4 degrees today but when I woke up I could tell it was much colder, after checking the BBC the low was actually -2. I have always noticed this from them, I used to think was it just me and I had forgotten what was actually forecast but after a while I started copying forecasts and paying more attention and I discovered it is a constant theme. Throughout this cold spell they have contradicted themselves and each other. For example, the BBC has differing temperatures, one will have snow while the other won't. The Met Office maps will or wont have snow warnings of various colours while their detailed forecast for the day contradicts it's maps. Met yesterday had an amber snow warning while showing heavy rain. The BBC will include details in their summary that simply don't appear in their hour by hour forecast...
On 26 Jan 2013, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Craig: All the snow has gone as of today but there is a little left on the mountains still! We had a lot of rain last night which cleared away snow from higher elevations, but there are some areas that have over a foot of snow which is slower to clear. Hope the February forecast brings us some colder weather and plenty of snow! December 2010 was great here we had 16cm of snow here!
On 26 Jan 2013, JohnE wrote:
Just a little bit of promo Piers, hope that you dont mind?
http://www.facebook.com/#!/john.edgington.18
On 26 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Look what Simon Keeling's discovered. Japanese Met Agency forecasting return of cold weather
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=613
On 26 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Foot of snow on the M6 then. Like Gloucester this is not exactly some obscure mountain peak?
On 26 Jan 2013, JohnE wrote:
Emergency law pass overnight by COBRA
Every household in the snow ravaged north west is now legally bound by law to create at least one snow man of at least 2 metres in height with a foot print (sorry snow print) of a minimum of 1 metre. Well did it arrive last night or what? In darkest (now whitest Bury) we have had at least 6 inches of snow. At 02.00 this morning I was still revtrieving my family from various parts of the area. Folk were out on snowboards and sledges at that time and there were abandoned cars all over the place. The mayor of one local area was last seen getting into a police 4 x 4 after the official car was abandoned.
The sky is now clear and there has been a frost so sledging beckons later this morning. Oh and thank you Mrs JohnE for insisting that we have a little three door RAV4 in the family, a girls 4 x 4 but for the third time in 3 years it has got us through.
On 26 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Ruairí in the vid I did I was suprised how far east the cold crept into Ireland. I hope in the next cold wave it bites more and you get snowed in! Speaking of which after Tues a cool down showing on models (upper temps looking similar to today in about a week) and hints in the models the contining warming in the strat may bite again. Next weekend could be very interesting and an undercut could cause some serious weather. The cold may retreat a bit but it won't disappear with so much snow in Europe. We are also entering the coldest phase of winter. The first two weeks of Feb can be brutal as shown in CET in fact the cold we had is unusual as it often warms in mid Jan. 1991 was a Feb event one hale cycle ago as was 79 +++ I'm still going for winter to not leave until equinoxbut waxing and waning throughout. No 1963 this year as we are in a warmer regime but if a VEI6 volcanic eruption happens we may look back at this year fondly for its warmth! This is only the start of LIA conditions
On 26 Jan 2013, Not supplied wrote:
Matt+ Gfunkasaurus I think there are some good people at the MetO but their voices are drowned out. Although Ian Ferguson is BBC he is a good example of a decent metrologist in a sea of mediocrity. I liken it to using a company as I respect my contact even though I think/believethe company they work for is c***. I also think the MetO have a massive communication problem skewed by their job (wx prediction in near term) being skewed by a warmist agenda (separate the two heads of the muck spreader). If they stopped jumping on every event as proof we may take them more seriously. However most people I speak to think this weekend will be warm and were suprised by the snow warnings for Fri/Sat (yellow for me now). That is a communication issue not helped by the BBC forecasts which contradict each other. Again Ian F deserves respect for explaining things and not treating Joe public as sheep.
On 26 Jan 2013, Cal wrote:
Good Jan forecast Piers, however the start and end of Jan is a little wayward, the subsequent Greenland high & N.Easterlies towards the end of the month look a little optomistic at this satge, still i would say 75% of the forecast was right, looking forward to Feb's month of wild contrasts! Much better than any other forecast i have seen out there esp at longrange, well done!
On 26 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Firstly WOW nearly 400 comments! Piers I hope you recorded the ibterview fear you will be edited unfavourably by the disciples of the 28 Climate Nutjob advocates who made BBC policy on the environment. I said a while back LIA extremes would be hijacked even for cold. Usually they just focus on the heat like in Auz but they really are trying with the cold in the Northern hemisphere with record snow cover this year. Pathetic and dangerous. Really looking forward to the interview as it's not often I see you anywhere but Fox or RT. I highly recommend the tallbloke post Piers links to where it shows how bad Haighs cherry picking is totally contradicting NASA on low solar activity (not to mention contradicting observation). Ulric Lyons makes a key point “..but the sun is more active now than it has been since 2009…”Tosh, it’s tanked again, that’s why it’s cold…http://snag.gy/fkaOU.jpg Orwellian or what? Dangerous and desperate warmist tosh indeed.
On 25 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Raining here in Kineton, Warwickshire.
No sign of snow as yet, although the high winds were drifting the snow on high ground on Edge Hill.
On 25 Jan 2013, Nicholas Harrison wrote:
So just to clarify this upcoming warm weather. The temperature will be 10 degrees. Or 9. Or 8. Or 7. Or 6....depending on whose report you read, with figures supplied by the Met Office. That's clear as mud then. And Westerlies will be the pattern from Sunday through Tuesday and maybe onwards. So no Greenland High then.
On 25 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Weather in Bathgate, Scotland, wednesday the 23/01/2013 was rather dry and cloudy with the odd flake of Snow and tiny ice crystals falling from sky rarely, temps averaged minus 6c from 2230hrs Tuesday until 0700hrs Wednesday, temps averaged minus 2c all day Wednesday and all night and remained at minus 2c until 0600hrs Thursday morning, a dusting of snow at 0600hrs on Thursday that lasted an hour. All day Thursday temps averaged +2c, dry, cloudy with temps falling to minus 2c at 1600hrs, dark hours. Snow is still on ground where there is no vehicle or pedestrian traffic. Temps from late Thursday evening and until now Friday the 25/01/2013 at 2100hrs have ranged from +2c down to -1c, cloudy all day with a westerly wind. Snow blizzard at 0700hrs Friday that dumped 3cm of snow over 2hrs. Snow blizzard at 1630hrs Friday that dumped 5cm of snow over 2hrs, big snow flakes from the west. My Sister from kilsyth told me they had snow all day, sitting 5inch deep as off 1630hrs.
On 25 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Snowing already, earlier than predicted (even on current forecasts online)
On 25 Jan 2013, Yorkie wrote:
Rohan Omard - I've just looked at the model and you are incorrect. I think you are reading the pressure charts 'back to front' and getting the low pressure and high pressure the wrong way round. The model shows a serious of low pressures crossing the country one after the other - this would indicate milder type conditions, if it comes to pass.
Just a word of warning, don't believe the models for anything more than 72 hours into the future as they are really not very good at predicting the future beyond this timescale. They are usually o.k. for 48 hours in the future and not too bad up to 72 hours, although they can even be a bit shaky sometimes even at this stage!
On 25 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
Joe I would disagree with you on that one albeit from a personal point of view as where I live we have had a decent dollop of snow and we haven't really been the worst affected area. whilst memorable i would say december 2010 was the worst closely followed by january 2010. I would put it on a par with February 09 though. From my own observations of the area i live in these snow events are becoming more common. Ashington at the moment has heavy snow, temps 0 deg c, around 2cm of fresh accumulation.
On 25 Jan 2013, Simon wrote:
Currently 8C in Plymouth. Lovely. Here comes the warmth!!!
On 25 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Rohan - I hate to say it but yes, you are reading the model output incorrectly. I'm not sure what you're seeing actually. Generally it shows a fairly typical winter pattern - low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. Meaning mostly wet and windy with the worst of it towards the nw of the UK.
On 25 Jan 2013, michael wrote:
South Glos @ 600' asl; icy pavements this morning and a cold wind, temps about 36-37F but felt colder. Very light intermittent snow fall this afternoon and early evening. Temps now about 34F and thawing. Low O/cast.
On 25 Jan 2013, Nick (Berks) wrote:
I agree with matt. I think Piers may have something (am presently agnostic) but OTT rhetoric will do nothing to help it get accepted. Btw Piers, for the record what do you expect to happen this weekend? John O'Sullivan, in the piece you link to, implies (as do some of your posts) that you believe it won't get milder:
'... Gibbs was still obstinately clinging to the Met Office’s forlorn hope that “…it will turn a lot milder over the weekend.” Fingers and legs being crossed backstage.
But will it? Not according to Corbyn ...'
It's about 2C now, average Jan temp is about 7C, MO forecast for Windsor on Sunday is presently 9C. That seems to be turning quite 'a lot milder' to me. How wrong do you think that will be?
On 25 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
Considering what the MetO have to work with its no wonder that they keep having to change forecasts - the UK is a very difficult place to forecast weather for Slat 8 or normal charts - that said at least there is an inkling of change on the horizon as the MetO have advertised for a space weather scientist ...
On 25 Jan 2013, Mark wrote:
Thick and heavy snow the last 2hrs here in Bolton and sticking, Piers I take my hat off to you but not for long as its cold. Can't wait to see what month end brings
On 25 Jan 2013, Iain wrote:
Hi all just reading some of the comments left and having a good old chuckle to myself £249 million pound comedians that's a year you have to admitted they are pretty funny just wondering if he only do stand up coz my nephew is having a birthday party soon and he love balloon animals just asking coz looks like the are all going to be looking for new jobs soon also just watched the latest forecast from the mo on bbc news 24 and according to them the snow for Glasgow is only going to lat until 22.00 but on the sit it say that we have an amber warning until 04.00 in the morning poor old peter Gibbs something tell me the don't like him very much lol
On 25 Jan 2013, joe wrote:
piers i have to say hands down to you but in my opinion this is so not a january too remember by far!? 2010 jan 4/5 is still at 1st place and it wonders me with curiosity when this event will return????
On 25 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Amber Snow Warning for Bedfordshire Now lol
On 25 Jan 2013, Will Cooper wrote:
The Met Office YELLOW Alerts have now been shifted further WEST and further SOUTH, and this is for SNOW not RAIN as per their earlier forecasts. Wiltshire is now included in that Alert for Snow, and the Met Office said RAIN here, now they're saying SNOW. We also had snow showers across Salisbury Plain this afternoon, further putting the Met Office projections of rain in the garbage trash.
I think the SNOW will affect areas to the south, and more than standard Met Projections. I, in my opinion, think that a lot of people will wake up to surprises tomorrow morning, and the Met Office will look daft once again.
It will be very interesting to see how things pan out during the overnight period, and indeed through the weekend.
On 25 Jan 2013, Rohan Omard wrote:
Getting very excited now as I think Piers and WA are going too be proved spot on again. I'm a newbie when it comes to reading the pressure charts but looking at the latest model from ecmwf, it shows (I think) high pressure over the whole of Britain next week right up until Friday! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=168&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
If am reading the model correctly, then the low pressure gets pushed away from the UK in pretty short order and does not make a comeback until around 02/02/13. If I am reading the charts wrong please correct me so I can learn.
On 25 Jan 2013, Gfunkasurus wrote:
I hear you matt. The one thing the met have been very good at this past couple of weeks is forecasting a few hours in advance. It is just incredibly frustrating when they continually change their forecast, particularly during the times when the majority of people rely on the most during the madness that ensues during CME events and the like. If Piers and the Met office were to join forces then there's every probability of 99% accuracy and preparation giving the 1% for freak occurrences like the filament that through Piers a wobbler a wee while back.
On 25 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
...(contd) is building the snow up where it hadn't melted from sun/mon/tues. Current status...relentless I would say. This mornings trip to Glasgow from Alloa is, in my opinion, conclusive proof (if it was ever needed) that more temp/weather monitoring stations need to be installed in rural areas and as far away from man made heat-sinks as possible. If the difference between a small Scottish city like Glasgow and 40 miles away is enough to create to completely different temp and weather scenario, well....need I say more? I wonder if any MO employees live in rural areas and commute into London to AGWHQ and what their conscience must be saying to them on said journey during weather like they have been experiencing in say Wales this past week?
On 25 Jan 2013, Gfunasaurus wrote:
@Simon Cochrane. I would concur, diamond dust would fit the description. It was like that wee small rain that soaks you to the bone but made up of tiny sparkly crystals. quite stunning in the silence that was the wee county last night. Up at 6 this morning and it was beginning to snow properly here. Passing through Stirling on the train (roughly 10 miles west) it was snowing quite heavily and lying with roughly 1/2 an inch where last night there had been none. Kept snowing all the way to Bishopbriggs then blam, hit Glasgow and there was no snow, It was trying to break through but mostly icy rain. According to my mum it never stopped snowing in FK10 except for a couple of hours from 12 when it turned to big wet flakes mixed with a bit of sleety rain. I arrived back about an hour ago and it was turning back into proper snow. Since then it has been quite intense big flakes which has now re-covered the opaque slushyness where the snow from earlier in the week had been dried up.............
On 25 Jan 2013, matt wrote:
I enjoy reading the (informed) opinions on this site and as a subscriber have a vested interest in judging Piers' performance against that of the Met Office. But please can we stop with the "met office are rubbish" posts - yes, their forecasts and models obviously need some input from people like Piers and yes they have bought into the AGW agenda fully and are guilty of peddling only one side of an on-going scientific discussion, but the negativity posted on this site does nothing to further Piers' cause. As soon as one of his predictions "fails" the cycle of accusations and recriminations begins again. Perhaps more matter of fact reporting would help i.e. Met office predicts x, my observation is y, Piers predicted z. Also in my opinion he needs to distance his SLAT work from the AGW debate for it to be taken seriously; there are plenty of other scientists questioning AGW. I will continue to support his work as ultimately I hope to see weather prediction improved using his techniques.
On 25 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Just to add to my earlier post the M/O weather warning has been updated again! and now includes a Yellow Warning for Ice on Saturday over all regions apart from Orkney & Shetland.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1359028860
Thought they were saying Milder by the weekend ?? maybe ice now forms under milder temperatures ?
On 25 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Don't ever plan a garden party using the M/O nowcasts/weather warnings as it would change before you even got through the door to setup the first table, the organisation/company is a total joke!! constantly updating forecasts and weather warnings obviously forecasting is way beyond them, it should now be called nowcasting.
On 25 Jan 2013, Ken wrote:
Hi just enjoying some of Joanna Haigh's variability in weather, and while looking around on the Web found this rathewr interesting rebuttal of young Ed 'The science is settled' Milliband delivered in a blizzard a Copenhagen assertion. Apparently the science is far from settled according to this link,
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/ex-nasa-scientists-the-science-is-clearly-not-settled/
I apologise if it has been posted before. Yours from a chilly and Snowy North West England
On 25 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Met Office have scaled back their amber snow warning for Sat 26/1/13 and now only applies to East Midlands, East Of England, London & South East.
The Yellow warning is still in force for the rest of the country apart from Northern Ireland and Orkney/Shetlands which have no warnings.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1359028860
Don't know how anyone can make plans around their forecasts or weather warnings when they are constantly updating them throughout the day.
On 25 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Right enough, Kevster. I meant to say 'song and dance on our local radio station'. Radio Scotland was quoting the MO that heavy snow would last from 11am today until 2am tomorrow. Looking at the radar I can see the heavier precipitation in the West, time will tell whether it makes it all the way over to us, most often it doesn't in this situation.
On 25 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Well the MO are still forecasting major warming for SE. 8c by sat, 10c sun and 12c by Tuesday. The front coming in now doesnt seem as strong as thier "amber" alert implies, which Piers said they would over egg.
Interesting times!
On 25 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Paddy, the heavier stuff is still to the west of Scotland, not due to get to you until later today and through the night, before turning to rain by the morning.
On 25 Jan 2013, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Raining here all night and just started again this morning. It does not really feel that MILD, but temperatures have risen slightly (5°C here now). Rain is set to continue with temperatures rising further? I doubt that very much!
On 25 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Big song and dance about huge amounts of snow today - but watching the MO radar http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html the front is moving very rapidly, snow is falling yes, but very light stuff not far from rain; there may be more of it further inland. I think we'll be clear by midday. Pressure declining from the west, all eyes on Greenland High now.
On 25 Jan 2013, Man Bearpig wrote:
Piers,
I genuinely hope that your January forecast trumps the Met Office forecast, no not forecast, FANTASY .. I have been left in bewilderment at the MO arrogance, they have stumbl;ed through this last week sayings it gonna snow, no it isn't, oh yes it is pantomime.
If you are proven correct, then I hope that Boris goes back on TV and callers her out.
On 25 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS AGAIN ALL --- One point: LIA_IS_HERE What are you saying?? 1. The refs under forecast accuracy show peer review reportage of our significant skill. 2. There are other independent very valid reports (eg from insurance loss adjusters whose profession is accuracy) of 85%+ success rate on extreme events. 3. Our forecasts are ALL available to anyone who subscribes and plenty are available NOW to public via archives - GO TO HOME PAGE http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact46 - and more recent ones are due to be loaded. Thanks Piers
On 25 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Is the evidence of global cooling after 17 flat years now coming in?
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/global-temperature-updates-2012/#more-2368
On 25 Jan 2013, LIA_is_Here wrote:
Piers - I have faith in your work but I'm pretty sure there's not a scientist in the world that would consider that evidence. I really want to see your work get more recognition but there's no way it's going to without making your forecasts publicly available (once they've expired obviously) and it frustrates me that you won't.
On 25 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
Gfunk I wonder if the tiny snow you mention may be diamond dust which is more of an air frost rather than snow. I witnessed these tiny flakes falling from a clear sky one night in December 2007 in Bedlington Northumberland. After looking it up I found it was called diamond dust and I feel lucky to have witnessed it.
On 25 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
SUPERB OBS AND COMMENTS ALL THANKS --- Please promote this blog and especially draw attention to my Challenge above to Prof Joanna Haigh --- "LIA IS HERE" Independent proof of our skill and success rates are covered in the Forecast accuracy link on home page: http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact45 The MetO has no independent evidence of any long range skill. --- Thanks Piers
On 25 Jan 2013, occasionally David wrote:
@Russ
They would work like a high by-pass turbo jet engine, using a tapered tube, a venturi, which the turbine blades rotate inside but with a shape and pitch more suited to pumping water instead of hot gases. The rivers flow is almost constant 365 days a year. You could deploy hundreds and create vast amounts of power.
You see? You can envisage it. I can envisage it (and I'm not even close to being an engineer). And what designs do they come up with? Something that has to be brought back to dry land as soon as the sea is not dead calm. It's a tissue of lies and deliberate stupidity. They only get away with it because so many people now are almost entirely ignorant of science and physics.
On 25 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Kevster as this is not an R5 no need to triple amounts. +++ Looks like the real warmth in the MetO forecast is now Tues- current 11C max+++ MetO yellow+amber warnings will be updated in the morn for fri/sat but as yet I'm not in affected area. Hmm +++ Has been a v. overcast month so far with little in the way of clear sky. Periods Piers progged have not been as clear but have been less cloudy. Parts that have cleared have froze over snowfields<-10C. It's meant for me no deep cold (e.g. near -10C) but since the 15th temps have not raised above 2C with temps varying by only +/-2C or so with the odd drop to -5C the other night. Other areas (west?) had more variability. I set up a blog which has an update vid for the cold creep in Europe till 23rd Link >> craigm350.wordpress.com +++Shaun F thank you for pics they are insane! I am v. jealous. +++ Russ how can Piers sacrifice goats-aren't there bylaws against keeping goats in London?(wink)
On 25 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Rosebud, Simon Keeling referred to the ridge building over..er..Greenland in the ECMWF chart in his video last night and had screenshots side by side of it next to another orgnaisations chart which showed it to be much weaker. Now who was it that mentioned a Greenland High ages ago?
On 25 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
...(cont)...It would appear to me that the old saying about arses and elbows seems to fit very well. The forecasters last night both local Scottish and national were adament that things would get muuuch milder now they're gradually pulling it back. What is that on the Central Tayside and Fife mobile forecast now "outlook for saturday to monday, blah blah blah, less cold, thaw at times" Less cold? Mmmm now where have I heard that before? Thought they said warming up and much milder by next week, maybe that was a dream?! My theory? When all else fails and the uber-computer crashes because the models are so confused they turn to something they secretly trust but won't let on. Their secret subscription!!!
On 25 Jan 2013, Gfunkasurus wrote:
Ola peeps. update from Fishcross in the Clackmannanshire Nebula, 0018hrs. So the snow gradually turned to sleet here on Mon night/Tues morn. Not so much of a thaw however as it was more of a drying up of the wet bits after 4-6inches in places of partly wet/ partly granular snow. (There's still quite a bit of snow lying where it had frozen on Monday, maybe an inch or so in my garden). Tuesday night everything froze. Wednesday afternoon crept up to about 3degrees but there was still a bite coming from the east. Today it was baltic all day even when the sun was out (ish). There's now a weird snow mist in the air, very very small light flakes, lots of them not doing much but very pretty. Weird. Last night the Met were going for "an end to the cold by the weekend" showing 8-10 degrees on the Scottish weather, with yellow warnings for ice and a bit of snow on the east coast for friday and nothing for Saturday on the website. Now we've got that giant amber blob right up the middle............
On 24 Jan 2013, paul wrote:
The MO has just changed there daytime temp for york on sat from 3 oc to 2 oc . Which part of the weekend is ment to get warmer again ?
On 24 Jan 2013, LIA_is_here wrote:
Glad to hear you talk of evidence based science above Piers. Does this mean that you're ready to release the evidence of your 85% success rate to subdue the MetOffice once and for all?
On 24 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Earlier today, MO put snow warnings out for tomorrow. I'm surprised at the lack of comment on here!! What does the weatheraction crowd think? Overdone or should we triple the snow depths again?
On 24 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
My, this is exciting: MO on their surface pressure forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html have Atlantic lows swamping Britain by Sat/Sun, very different from Piers' predictions (without giving too much away - go on, buy his forecasts). I haven't been watching and comparing long enough, also haven't got the time, but I know where I would go every time for my forecast. Roll on Sunday to see who'll be scraping egg off their face :-)
On 24 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Thought some would love this flash back
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
On 24 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
occasionally David - exactly, think of all those bridges already in situ on all of our estuaries - like the one i live on - wouldn't even be to difficult to attach something to them in order to harness the tidal power...
On 24 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
Simon Keeling @weatherschool just tweeted
Look at the ridge building on the ECMWF, if that connects to the pole we could be back to the cold stuff http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsecmopmsl.php … #ukweather
hmmm.....
On 24 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
cont'd... All I keep seeing is devices which oscillate with the seas waves. How quaint but how silly. No wonder they can't get them to work efficiently. They are just as useless as wind-turbines, because as soon as the sea becomes dead calm, you don't get any power. The rivers for the last 20 to 30 kilometres of their journey shift millions of tons of water per minute. Even in the worst drought they would still function, day or night, they would be immune from extreme temperatures, and could have grills fitted so they don't mince any marine creatures. Large blades rotating slowly, they would be relatively maintenance free. We already generate power in a similar way, using gravity fed hydro-electric dams, but in a drought situation they empty, result? No power. River water flows slowly so use much larger turbines to achieve the same effect. There are approx 24 high capacity rivers, 70 to 220 miles long, capable of producing power spread all over the UK.
On 24 Jan 2013, Grant wrote:
Well to be honest Piers you got it spot on till now but the next 8 days really does look like a mild affair. We can all argue about the extent of mild but we are not going to see cold or snow according to the US gurus. Maybe models work up to a point we shall see - 8 to 10 days of mild, wet and windy weather???
On 24 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
JohnE... Those snowmen might not seem like they are capable of slowing a thaw, but maybe they could be the 'tipping point'? One snowman too few and we're all doomed. Nope! I think I'll go with your theory... ITS BIZARRE...! ........ Sue and occasionally David.... I see lots of ocean driven devices for harnessing wave power but they all look a bit like a 5 year old came up with the idea. Now the three largest rivers in the UK, the Severn, Trent and Thames are all mighty rivers and hundreds of kilometres long, and close to some very large cities. If we sited turbine-like devices in these rivers we could have an efficient energy source. They would work like a high by-pass turbo jet engine, using a tapered tube, a venturi, which the turbine blades rotate inside but with a shape and pitch more suited to pumping water instead of hot gases. The rivers flow is almost constant 365 days a year. You could deploy hundreds and create vast amounts of power. It can't be that difficult surely
On 24 Jan 2013, Brad wrote:
The Hit on Mercury was not earth directed, says so on the NASSA update , so no lucky break for the Met Office. so it will not change the forcast decided to answer my own Question. Did I mention what a good job you are doing Piers. Well done.
On 24 Jan 2013, Dawn wrote:
David - you mentioned turbines being useless, I agree, then you mention that tidal devices would be better and that they are undervalued. Unfortunately there is not one tidal device that effectively works. I know this because I live in the UK's second Renewable Energy Park (Orkney). Any swell and the devices break loose or are battered beyond repair, they are therefore towed in to port and re-towed out again when calmer waters can ensure testing of devices can resume.
Tidal devices are no better than wind powered ones, they are all based on subsidy and destroy inshore water habitats, as well as the ocean view. They stand out for miles.
On 24 Jan 2013, Gail from Massachusetts wrote:
The Weather Channel predicted that last night's temperature would be 2 below zero F here in Ashby, Massachusetts. Instead, it was 12 below zero F. They were 10 degrees off which made quite a difference. I noticed that the mainstream media keeps changing their forecasts. A few days ago, they predicted snow in Massachusetts for this Friday. Then they revised their forecast two days ago and said that the snow will miss Massachusetts entirely. Today, their forecast says that it will snow in Massachusetts on Saturday. You were right, Piers, when you said that the mainstream media will not be able to make accurate predictions. I noticed that their forecasts are running hog wild. I wish that my dog would stop insisting on going outside for a walk. Its windy and very cold right now!
On 24 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
Looks like it is definitely getting warmer and staying warmer for the next week judging by the met office charts. There is a deep atlantic low that is going to push all the cold air out of the way.
On 24 Jan 2013, JohnE wrote:
Oh dear and this is what I pay my taxesfor........
The bizarre advice comes as weather experts predict a sudden thaw causing torrential rain and melting snow when temperatures swing from -13C to 13C over the weekend.
The Environment Agency said Britons could help slow the rate of the sudden thaw by building snowmen in their gardens and on driveways.
Spokesman Roy Stokes said the compacted snow and ice in snowmen will melt more slowly than snow on the ground meaning there is less surface water come the time of a thaw.
He said: "Ideally if everybody built themselves a snowman that will slow the thaw down a bit.
"If you notice when people clear their drive the snow thaws away but the compacted piles stay which will give a balanced thaw, which would be helpful.
...So this means that all of you who live near Dartmoor or the Brecon Beacons should get up there quickly and make some mega snowmen.... give me strength............
On 24 Jan 2013, occasionally David wrote:
The use of wind turbines is psychological.
The people behind the push to green madness know perfectly well that they're peddling lies so they scatter wind turbines hither and yon across the nation so that people see them and keep being reminded of the underlying "philosophy".
The fact that we have a tidal range of some 30 feet and that it flows twice a day yet that potential is not realised, is proof (to my mind) that this is not about efficiency or best outcomes, but is about, if you'll forgive the pun, 'spin'.
As the saying goes "one in the eye is worth two in the ear".
On 24 Jan 2013, Brad wrote:
The link to the Sun and Mercury
http://spaceweather.com/images2013/23jan13/cme_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=9066vr4mvbrstist4bnp7f7es2
Brad
On 24 Jan 2013, Brad wrote:
Hi just asked about the fillament that was directed at Mercury, do you know of Maurice Cotterell's
Work on the Sun , with Mercury acting as an instgator for the four magnetic fields.
It's great to see that Mercury was right there conducting it. The same way a spark bridges a gap. Any thoughts any body as I am sure Piers is A very busy man.
Great work Piers and co, all the best to you.
Brad
On 24 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Piers I see just what you mean about the trolls and warmists out there, The comments on a spoof site on Twitter by a Brain dead troll should be ignored and the twitter address should be taken down, You must have them on the run, there God of Global warming Religion and Co2 is set to implode on them at last.
On 24 Jan 2013, Not supplied wrote:
Piers ,
What do you think of the recent filament that is going to hit on the 26th or 27th. not having originated in a sun spot has that changed your forcast? With you 100 % on Solar drven weather.
On 24 Jan 2013, Sue wrote:
Yes Russ not the best news for us in Ireland, The Bog of Allen is 370 sq miles of peatland of great archeological importance, it is also harvested on an industrial scale, a very beautiful part of our country will be blighted by 700 of these of these prayer wheels...very sad. We live on the edge of a powerful ocean, could wave power not be harnessed if they really insist on pushing their green agenda??
On 24 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Not the best of news for our Irish readers and posters...>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21147279 <<.. ............You know, there could be a hidden agenda for all these windmills. Just in case the ruling elite may have a war in mind in the very near future, any disruption to the supply of coal or oil would render us 'powerless' so the windmills would trump again...phew..is that shale gas I can smell?....>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21175466 <<..
On 24 Jan 2013, CarrieH wrote:
Well, surprise surprise the MO have now a yellow warning for strathclyde for snow on both Fri & Sat....it will no doubt change again several times as they scrabble about with nonsensical models, but once again Piers is looking accurate. I really hope we see some snow as have been exceptionally envious of other parts in the UK. Pity it will not last long, but I have purchased Feb forecast so have fingers crossed. As a newbie to this site it is quite flabergasting how inaccurate and costly the MO/BBC are regarding the forecasting....I will be educating all friends and family as am now a Piers convert!
On 24 Jan 2013, Richard Bruce wrote:
I have been monitoring the Met Office website for our area for the forthcoming weekend. Unbelievably (or should I say inevitably), the forecast is changing by the hour and the apparent warm weather forecast for the weekend has been downgraded to a max of 2C already. This is typical of the Met Office who seem to wait until the weather is upon us before bringing out a vaguely accurate forecast and then claiming that their 5 day service has a high degree of accuracy. It will if they keep moving the goalposts!
On 24 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
I'm so glad Belfast got a good dollop of the white stuff too. After I told a poster from Ireland to be patient and wait a few days to see if Ireland got snow. Phew....by the skin of my teeth that one, but Piers must take the credit, I just put my head on the block confident that he would be correct..........How to improve Piers forecasts? Write them in gold leaf perhaps? He could do special edition paper forecasts, printed with faux gold edging especially for winter extreme forecasts like this year. Just print them up at the end of the year with an 'end of year summary' I'd buy one. At present he doesn't sell memorabilia, perhaps he should. How about black fleece hats with a bright WeatherAction logo? Or sweat shirts with the slogan "Thor is Dead _ Piers is the new Weather God" with bright blue - yellow - grey - white print on black to signify the different weather types. Just a thought....... If Piers doesn't do it I'm going to have a hat done myself, with © permission of course.
On 24 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Steve G .....*apple'ogies.... Got our names jumbled up on the comment screen. I guess you got the gist after re-reading my post about 4 times hehehe? CraigM... Piers may not be a snake-oil salesman, but I hear he sacrifices goats, ahem, keep it under your hat.......... Spaceweather is showing a CME which developed from large filaments, so lots of plazzzma heading our way. Adjacent to that humungous coronal hole too, so should stir things up with perfect timing for Piers 'Pièce de résistance' around the 29th.... Go Piers! ...... *apple'ogies referenced from Black Adders 'Baron von Richthofen'.
On 24 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Just an update on what Belgian national met is predicting. Cold on Saturday with possible light snow in the evening turning in to rain on Sunday. Sunday temps of 4°c climbing next week to 10°C. Thaw and an end on the winter is predicted. Rediculous if you ask me since we're end of January. They'll fairly stupid if winter turns back. I hope it does and that'll proove that you're right Pierce...
On 24 Jan 2013, Ruairí (East cost of Ireland) wrote:
Met Éireann has removed the statement from its website: "THE CURRENT COLD SPELL WILL COME TO AN END"
Windy and mostly cloudy tomorrow, Friday, with spells of heavy rain and strong south to southeasterly winds. Mild, top temperatures of 7 to 11 C., leading to a fairly rapid snow melt. There is a risk of some spot flooding also. (Nationwide)
Outlook from Friday night : Unsettled and changeable. Some very wet and windy spells at times, but some brighter, more showery interludes also. Milder by day, but still cold at night with frost and ice at times. The rain will clear away to the east early Friday night, to be followed by clear spells and showers, some wintry. It will turn cold and frosty, with icy patches developing. Lowest temperatures plus 2 to -2 C. Saturday will start bright and fresh, with sunny spells and just scattered showers (the confused hot/cold outlook continues at met.ie).
On 24 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont (4)... that is why Piers is called 'lucky' because he has no super computer to do his work! Can you believe the audacity of the man to use a laptop & pen & paper not a million £ computer? (wink). Too many think by chucking numbers into a spreadsheet it will give them an instant answer. Personally I use pen & paper as the very nature of writing things down tends to lodge things helping understanding, giving me a feel for the subject (the old educational ways had their merit). For nearly two years I have kept hand written observations on solar/earthquakes/lunar, not to mention drawing visual representations & reading endless reports/publications. It may sound old fashioned but it works & through this I have a far greater appreciation of Piers work (but understand a tiny fraction of it). If you have the time read this from 1999 & you will see Piers is no snakeoil computer salesman nor is he 'lucky'! Link>> www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.02/weather_pr.html
On 24 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont (3)...A computer does not have curiosity it just follows a predetermined set of rules/program & IT programmers do the same often with no understanding of the subject matter/customer. Yes they can write neat code & will often be impressed with themselves. Ever had a program designed for your company & found that the IT company you employed failed to understand your product & conned you into a highly expensive program or GUI (Graphic User Interface) that is not fit for purpose & you did not need? Does the NHS (£12-20BILLION) super computer ring any bells? As someone who knows someone in the IT industry for close to 40yrs getting a bigger & better computer/GUI will not solve the problem if you still fail to address fundamental errors or have a slick salesman selling you a fancy product you do not need. It is a money making exercise clothed as a technological panacea...cont...
On 24 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont (2)... If you shine a light in a cave (whilst looking for a black cat!) + are asked to describe the cave afterwards you may be able to describe aspects of your path but prob have no idea about the stalactites overhead or many other caves that you didn't see. You have limited information & the person following your advice is liable to get lost or fall down a deep dark hole you missed. Or to put it another way - the MetO went into the cave couldn't find anything + declared, with authority of course, that there was nothing of interest (to them) + no point going back to the cave. They even wrote a computer program afterwards so that no one need go into the cave anyway....cont...
On 24 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
The MetO 5D forecast got something right by predicting light snow for 9am today shame it missed out the snow lasting until 1430 stopping for a couple of hours and then starting again. It was light but almost perfect stars landed on me - reminding me of the kind of small white chocolate stars on cakes! Never seen that before. Saturday looks like still being cold/below average with the forecast revising temps down. Sunday is slowly going the same way. +++ As has been said a computer is only as good as what you tell it to do. One assumption is the chaos theory that weather erm weather is chaotic & outside forcing (solar) is constant. It's this idiocy (presuming your tiny experiment in a bell jar can be extrapolated globally) that gave us CO2 ate my hampster science. Another element is incomplete data - i.e. measuring pressure etc around the globe & there are gaping holes in the Pacific data....cont...
On 23 Jan 2013, Daniel Bean wrote:
Hello Mr Corbyn. It's very strange how the met office predicted no snowfall for Southport (North west England) today, yet as said by Piers; snow could occur in the west even when the met deny it, and it did! The Met office really should consider your forecast methods, especially as yours are often extremely accurate and much cheaper. Keep up the good work!
On 23 Jan 2013, Grant wrote:
It looks as though the week is going to be very unsettled, at least according to Ryan Maue - extratropical cyclone at tip of Greenland is 946 mb - this will create strong south westerlies!!!
On 23 Jan 2013, jocky scot wrote:
I found a link to the met office's latest forecast method,
https://plus.google.com/112118861354873908587/posts/TCHqpqztngu
Enjoy !
On 23 Jan 2013, Shaun Faulkner wrote:
Hello Piers,
Here are some links for you of the snow that fell on Friday the 18th of January 2013. These are on Gelligear common which is about 350m to 370m from sea level.
It was about a foot and a half across the mountain but the drifts varied up to about 3 foot. My brother is in the one photo standing beside a large drift area that spanned a 100 metres across at least, he is almost six foot tall so he should allow some kind of rough gauge of depth.
The video shows the depth well but at the moment my brother has it, so I will try and get a link to it for you soon.
In one photo you will also see me up to my waist with my hiking pole almost fully submerged, the pole is about a metre long.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b4srE9hp5EV2dheE1DTGdQY1k/edit
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b4srE9hp5ERXpBUkNQRmdlUWc/edit
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b4srE9hp5EU0k3NmkwLU50Q3M/edit
On 23 Jan 2013, Grant wrote:
Piers, it baffles me why the met office are perfectly prepared to sit on the fence when it comes to the cold weather and essentially admit that they are 'nowcasting' through their presenters but when it comes to the milder weather they can see a full 4 days out that the cold is going and mild is coming. Is it more difficult to forecast cold weather and snow?
On 23 Jan 2013, Bill smith wrote:
Whether there is a potential thaw,or lingering cold this weekend ,it won't be too concerning.
if you bought the Feb forecast you would see that there are some real concerns coming up. Looking at the gfs 500 and 850,I for one think the next r5 coming up is potentially more active and concerning, At the end of the day This is Uk and it is winter and as as Piers saysit is a month of wild contrasts .
On 23 Jan 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:
Hi Piers! From Montréal, Canada, near NY US border. -28 this morning, warm-up to -23 this afternoon, down to -30 tonight! Superbly confirming your predictions. Thanks
On 23 Jan 2013, Steve G - Russ wrote:
Russ the strange thing is the collie has never been to bothered about bones before this event, and certainly never tried to bring it in the house before so yes I agree with the imprinting idea/ DNA all interesting when you consider that animals can sense Eartquakes before the event it makes you wonder how sensitive they are to solar events?
On 23 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Rob, it makes sense to run the models as much as possible. They'll learn more from the bits it struggles with than the bits it gets right. Like Piers - I imagine he learns more when a forecast goes badly wrong than when it's spot on. You make some tweaks and try again. Whether the MO need to communicate those runs to the public is another matter however. Maybe the public would prefer them to only forecast for the timeframe they're confident with. But the problem is, sometimes this would be 2 days, sometimes 10d. Which I guess would cause more problems. I seem to remember reading an article on how difficult it was for the MO to communicate uncertainty in a forecast. They tried some tests on the public, and they either didn't understand it, or came away confidently with the wrong message!!
On 23 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
KEEP WATCHING ALL - AND READ THE FORECAST which goes to FEB3, CLOSELY. It also means if you havnt got one buy it - Jan is now free when you order Feb. Paul Bedfordshire your Link is Simon Keeling's site where I posted as follows:----- "Simon, I think that's a good analysis of where models are logically heading at this moment for this weekend and the big thaw idea is OTT in standard terms. For info we have snow/drizzle in SouthWest around 26-28th in our forecast issued mid Dec. However concerning later other things are afoot in solar and consequential pressure terms so what comes out of the sky might enable us to see a black cat in semi-darkness. See our WeatherAction blog on these matters http://bit.ly/XgdMKd (where the refernce to black cats is clearer). Cheers Piers "
On 23 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Percy Shaw invented "Cats Eyes" when driving along a dark road with a black cat walking towards him and seeing his car's lights reflected in the animal's eyes. Ken Dodd points out that if the cat had been walking in the opposite direction he'd have been forced to invent the pencil sharpener! With regard to the Higgs Boson - why are they always found in Catholic churches? Because you can't have mass without them! Guess the snow's getting to me. 7 miles north of Carmarthen at 300ft asl, been snowing/sleeting off and on for 36 hours. Has settled this afternoon - now about 3cms deep @ 19.10. Could be interesting if it carries on snowing.
On 23 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
This is interesting:
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=606
On 23 Jan 2013, Fanakapan wrote:
Using my Meteorologically untrained eye to compare the current GFS Model with an interesting snippet from February 1947, via Wonkypedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Metoffice_3_feb_47.jpg
I wonder if there is not potential here for the MO to experience yet another Slip Twixt Cup and Lip ?
On 23 Jan 2013, Cougar girl wrote:
its been snowing in Rugby for 3 hours now , no indication from MO this was going to happen here today !! They cannot even get it right on the day or hour .Keep up the good work Piers .
On 23 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
I don't think the issue with the models is directly AGW linked. The models seem to have a bias to default to the prevailing weather condition which is warm fronts coming off the atlantic. Any computer model will just predict weather from a given position based on assumptions put in by the computer programmers. The computer cannot think. If you discount solar factors then the obvious assumption is bias to westerlies as that is what has happened most over recent years. However solar factors now mean that this assumption may no longer hold true, especially if LIA pattens developing, so perhaps the fault is that the models insufficiently include solar factors which of course appears to be also making long term climate forecasts go awry. It may of course be because of AGW that they are perhaps reluctant to consider solar factors as much as they should (but they probably will be soon after Piers making fools of them this winter, although they won't admit where they got the idea from.)
On 23 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Re. your lucky black cat Piers - Niels Bohr was given a hard time by one of his physicist colleagues who noticed that a horseshoe was nailed to the outside wall of Bohr's holiday cottage. Bohr's response was "I am told it brings you luck whether you believe in it or not." So was Bohr's successful career really down to the rusty footwear of an equine quadruped? Or his possible belief in it? Or his genius and hard work? As far as I'm concerned the best use of a horseshoe is as the core of a snowball which is then hurled at great velocity at the head of the nearest warmist politician! Might knock some sense into them. (Only joking - honest!)
On 23 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Ron.... "AGW based weather forecasting is like looking for a black cat in a dark room, only there is no cat, but every so often they shout out 'Ive caught it!".......... It's the same story with the Higgs Boson. They are all jumping up and down stating quite happily that they've found it, handing out the prizes to the 'ones who are worthy'. Have they heck-as-like! They are still in "signals which could be" land. Have you ever read what the Higgs is supposed to be and what it's alleged to do? Daftest fairy tale since AGW.....
On 23 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Here near the coast of Aberdeen we got away with little snow, always a bonus, until yesterday afternoon/evening when it came shoveling down about 4". This morning heavy showers, dry afternoon, around 1˚C, melting. A few miles south after Newtonhill, hardly any snow, it's been very patchy along the coast. Yesterday traffic chaos further south and north because of high winds and drifting overnight Mon/Tues. Watching like a hawk to see MO most likely fail again re warming at weekend :-)
On 23 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Steve G.... a dog will do this without being taught, I find that fascinating, that which we call 'instinct'. DNA must have the ability to imprint animal brains with this instinct which, I guess, they must sense as a kind of 'deja vu'. But you are right, the cold weather could be the trigger.
On 23 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Fred: Aye, noticed that change in the GFS too. Quite a different story from what it was suggesting yesterday--it's going Piers' way.
On 23 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
@ Ron they just look for the cats eyes and hope for the best they catch the right one. Normally the ones they do catch though are a lot warmer than all the others.
On 23 Jan 2013, Fred wrote:
UKMO and GFS both showing signs of slowing Atlantic so another model onto it. They are east enough to bring whole of UK under milder influence but then they begin to retreat. It seems they are keen on strengthening the Scandi HP [which is the alternative posted well in advance by Piers]. So if they are slowing it down now, its feasible to see further westard corrections to Atantic influence.
On 23 Jan 2013, Fred wrote:
It is important to note that Piers suggests less cold in his forecast particularly SW/W but genrally less cold NOT mild/warm. This suggests a weak attack from the Atlantic is going to happen but not a pile drive through into zoneality and strong SW'lies.
On 23 Jan 2013, dave wrote:
i live just outside crewe and its been snowing lightly all day here with plenty of the stuff still on the ground ( kids loving it )
On 23 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Piers:: AGW based weather forecasting is like looking for a black cat in a dark room, onlly there is no cat, but every so often they shout out 'Ive caught it! '
On 23 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
Is this mild air going to cross the country especially southern and central England and fizzle out bringing slightly milder temps say 4 degrees C then the cold air is going to push back in from the east or north.
On 23 Jan 2013, Rob wrote:
All charts and forecastes pointing to a change to mild SW winds with rain preceded by some snow on Friday. No indication of southerly extension of the Greenland High at the moment. If the models beyond a few days are so unreliable why do they persist in doing them? Is it purely for a bit of fun and a forlorn hope that on the odd occassion they will get it right? Or is it the fact that they have been given a load of money and a big computer and they have to try and justify it's existence?
On 23 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
Ah RON - Yes 'hesitancy about mild-up on weekend' on BBC you said. I think we will see more of that but note as I point out below we too expect something but a lot LESS milder than the models were/are saying. Now a bit of fun on animal behaviour as others have commented. Last night 22/23 I was walking through the snow in South London with some friends and a black cat darted across our path from left to right - it looked dramatic in the white snow and I am advised is a sign of good luck if you are into that sort of thing (OK! this is fun, coronal holes and so on are what to watch for). This was on the Newington estate - where we also saw some really superb snow sculptures.
On 23 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
The gerneral synopsis from BBC/MO appears to be front from west meeting cold air friday....snow. Then second front Saturday leading to rapid thaw, heavy rain, gales and localised flooding!
But its only Wednsday, so it could be anything by then!!
On 23 Jan 2013, Em wrote:
Blow me, if the Met Office hasn't just read my previous post and retrospectively updated their online 'forecast' to at last acknowledge the actual weather. Presumably, their previous erroneous forecast has now been conveniently overwritten - disappeared without trace (not even leaving its footprints in the snow that they didn't predict!).
On 23 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Ah hum-ho, the first sounds of hesitancy in the BBC lunchtime TV forecast about the progression of the front and admit we might get another 20cm of snow up here on Friday.
On 23 Jan 2013, Em wrote:
It has been snowing lightly here in Notts for the last couple of hours. The Met Office didn't even predict a shower and haven't even had the good grace to update their online 'forecast' with a bit of 'nowcasting' - do they never bother to look out of their windows!
On 23 Jan 2013, Steve G wrote:
Hey Guys, What about this, my collie just went out thru the snow and came back in with his prized(previously buried) marrow bone, he is two years old and has never done this before, do you think he is planning ahead!
On 23 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
GOOD POINTS ALL --- I like that snow in Gloucestershire! ---- The weekend, keep watching! The models are slowing as FRED noted. RUSS's point of the general weakness and then reversal in the models view to return of colder is important. Solar activity is low and Solar wind slow so the attack will not come to much. There is a Coronal hole grazing stream expected 26/27th which would strengthen fronts a bit but it might be a miss altogether. Anyhow do note our forecast map detail 26-28 has "Milder (less cold)" in SW Ire and SW Britain, and Brit and North parts of Ireland "less cold than before" (forecast same as issued mid Dec). Thanks Piers
On 23 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
As I write this I am looking out of the window and have just counted 10 blackbirds feeding on the stuff I put out for them it is a sign that it is cold and they need the feed to keep going, Snow melting now but it still feels cold out 38f 4c. Cloudy grey snowy skies, Wonder if the MO will be correct about it becoming milder by weekend ,interesting stuff this weather.
On 23 Jan 2013, Sai Ammy wrote:
Again, no snow at all in Glasgow. WIth all the chat of the white stuff everywhere else in the UK its getting rather annoying! I know I should be happy that there is no discruption or accidents etc but winter time would not be complete without even a dusting of the stuff !
On 23 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Fred: Even at the outermost it looks from the GFS that we are due for a turnaround to cold again from 3/4th Feb, but if the GHP strengthens before that!?
On 23 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Mail online reporting that a foot of snow fell in Gloucestershire last night.
On 23 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
It's currently (Noon) -4 Celsius with a windchill of -11 Celsius. Expectations for drastically warmer weather after the weekend, yet Windfinder site indicates the wind swinging back SE on Tuesday. If the tendency of the previous few years continues then we'll see predominant easterly winds all the way into May, with just a short but very warm period (a few weeks) and then continued misery all the way to July. It seems to have become the norm ...
On 23 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Well the loops of polar air keep coming and we are still sandwiched between these and the Scandinavian high. But the sun has gone very quiet. So even if there is a small break in the cold, I can't see it lasting more than a day or two, and I believe that the cold will spread and deepen, due to the lower solar activity. I think I may tie my fingers in the crossed position for the next few days. Have faith people, 'cos there aint many places the warm air can come from. Even the air and cloud being pushed up from Iberia isn't raising temperatures much because that area has been bombarded by cold polar air loops almost daily.
On 23 Jan 2013, Steve G wrote:
Just been on the Met O web site Southwest Warning updated at 10.05am snow forecasted! They have defo been looking out the window, feckin useless,
On 23 Jan 2013, Fred wrote:
Indeed an interesting period ahead. todays 06z GFS now has Atlantic more held at bay. Is this the start of a turnaround? I have to say with just 72-96 hrs before the models bring the breakdown against Piers saying GHP and/or Scvandinavian HP to rapidly build. There is not much time here, one has to give, or will UK be the battleground location again.
On 23 Jan 2013, Matt wrote:
Blackpool - shafting it down with snow currently, MO forecast 20% chance of precipitation today.
On 23 Jan 2013, steve G wrote:
Snowing again on Dartmoor almost continous from tuesday 3pm, now 10.30 am, measured fresh 100mm ontop of previous falls.
Met office completely off with there forecsats, which change when they look out the windows in Exeter and see whats happening! Amber warnings not worth having an absolute disgrace and waste of Tax payers money, this Government needs to re-access the amount of money it spends on the Met O. WASTE OF TIME AND DANGEROUS in my opinion.P/S Well done PIERS Keep up your great work.
On 23 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Just for reference, MO say 10c sat with heavy rain and gales SE.
On 23 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
matt d... " I wonder if anyone can tell me the environmental impact of all the grit used on the roads - where does all the salt end up."......... Matt, most of it ends up stuck to the underside of our car slowly turning it into a blob of iron ore on wheels (wink). .........
On 23 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
What a strange evening. Started raining in Brighton about 3ish. Turned to snow at rush hour and froze causing bloody pandemonium. Thought is would be murder this morning.....all gone and virtually no ice.
Have to say thought we would be much colder generally, maybe the west warm is further east than expected?
On 23 Jan 2013, Paul Bedfordshire wrote:
(Repaired posting) COLD IS PROLONGED: Just looked at weatherstation stats here at Flitwick.In Dec 2010 went below freezing at 18.00 on 16/12 and did not go above freeezing again until 10.00 on 22/12. Last tuesday 15/01 went below freezing at 17.00 and returned above freezing today 21/01 at 12.00. Dec 2010 5 day 16 hours continuous freeze, Jan 2013 5day 19 hours
continuous freeze. Jan 2013 longer "ice" period by 3 hours although Dec 2010 lows were much lower. Jan 2013 significant for the fact that much of the time it was overcast and below freezing, this is not usual.
On 23 Jan 2013, John Thomas wrote:
There light snow falling in the Carmarthenshire area and it looks grey out to the west which suggest that the snow could be stretching as far as Pembrokeshire.
On 23 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
1 inch of snow here in Kineton Warwickshire, time to brush the snow of the van again!!! Lol this is becoming a part time job.
On 23 Jan 2013, shaun wrote:
@ John Thomas I live in South Wales, merthyr tydfil and we have had more than 3 inches of snow almost every year for the last 5 years and the drifts were over a foot. If you visit grounds about 400m we have waist high snow and some drifts even up to my chest, 5'6. I have some amazing pictures and videos of the feet high snow in Wales this year
On 23 Jan 2013, matt d wrote:
I have to say that as a subscriber I was a little unsure about the latest forecast but it has been pretty accurate here is Solihull (south Birmingham). And this morning another couple of cm of snow, despite the met office and BBC not forecasting it at all. The weekend they are saying 8c and rain by the weekend but my confidence in their models is at an all time low. The trouble is a reliance on the models that are biased towards agw. As an aside I wonder if anyone can tell me the environmental impact of all the grit used on the roads - where does all the salt end up (rivers?).
On 23 Jan 2013, occasionally david wrote:
The Met Office, as ever, are charlatans and liars. Snow began to fall around 9-10PM last night here in inner Birmingham. It's still falling this morning yet their forecast has no mention of snow at all.
I check the MO forecast on the BBC site several times a day. It's rare to see the same forecast twice. They alter it every couple of hours and rarely get later today right, yet alone tomorrow or next week. How they continue to receive a penny of public money is beyond me.
If the MO made boats the harbour would be blocked with sunken craft.
On 23 Jan 2013, michael wrote:
00:50 South Glos 600' asl
Snow falling since 17:00 1-2 " with some drifting. Currently light snowfall wind about 10mph with some gusts. 'xc weather' giving temps for Lyneham down to -6c between now and 09:00 though no longer showing snow.
On 22 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Much better for a snowball after a slight thaw today after the hard frost last night (-5c) . This changed the structure of the lying snow changed (shame I'd used it all up making my snowman!). Temps went up to 2C today and are hovering just above freezing now. It's stopped snowing but another band is moving up from the channel and should hit around midnight. +++ A good way i have found of testing a cold spell is by how long my snowman lasts. When it's gone then I know the cold is gone - last week the snow in a few compacted areas stayed before Friday's powder came. This now makes it into the third week I have seen snow settling on the ground. By no means extreme like the E + NE or Wales but lovely to see still. Here's hoping the next cold wave is deeper with feet of wet snow for all!! (the videos from '63 are making me jealous)
On 22 Jan 2013, Will Cooper wrote:
Absolute fail from the Met Office, with regards to snow totals tonight (22 Jan). Wiltshire was under amber alerts, for 5-10cms, with BBC forecasts saying "Prepare for this, prepare for that". What an absolute waste of road salt in this village, that's 4 wheelbarrows of road salt wasted, due to INADEQUATE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION FROM THE MET OFFICW! Guess what? Only 1cm fell between 4pm and 6pm on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire, and that's on ground at 1,000ft asl. It's now been dry from 6.45pm. An absolute fail on many grounds there from the Met Office. In future, myself and the local community here, will no longer take notice of Met Office Warnings, as they're as much use as a chocolate teapot. People in our local community, the village of Easterton on the Northern edge of Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire, are absolutely furious with the MO, as road salt has been wasted, and lots of money wasted on supplies. Are we due more snow here soon, as the area is gridlock from 20cm (8in) on Friday?
On 22 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
The GFS model , I think , had the warm. Atlantic air pushing up all the way to S. Scandinavia! Mark Vogan also thinks the models are over doing the Atlantic push & the cold will hang on - esp in the E/NE with the snow cover helping keep surface temps down. Every year when we have a cold spell the models expect it to fall at the first push - last Friday being just one example. Also remember Piers never said it would be a countrywide freeze without end but would vary in intensity and by area. 1963 also had a thaw before the cold returned worse than before. As I write this the ECMWF 12z has delayed the breakdown by a day. Let's just be patient and see what happens.
On 22 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Morning of 22/01/2013 at 0630hrs opened curtains and a blizzard was blowing, small flakes but heavy, lasted about 2hrs and dumped a fresh 5cm of snow in the Bathgate area of Scotland. Dry and cloudy all day, a gentle easterly breeze all day after the blizzard. Temps from early morning until now 2155hrs just below freezing. You were right Piers about the driffting snow, went up the Bathgate hill today in 4x4 with family, Cairnpapple hill, 2 to 3ft drifts alomg the road, good fun. Any time we have had snow fall we get a stong easterly with it and as the snow flakes were mostly small, most of them were blown over the town and landed on the hill, if we didnt have the strong wind we would have 12inch of snow in town. See the meto are forecasting +6c for Scotland on Saturday, which de-coded means -6c and a big dumping of snow.
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Tina: what is the source of your information? It's sounds very different from the other standard models. Often high pressure over Greenland leads to cold northerlies or northeasterlies here.
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Not on my computer Ingrid. Just refreshed and still showing light cloud at 21.00. I still have bookmarks set to the MO website in the old format web pages as I prefer the old format. I've just clicked to convert to the new format and lo and behold it shows sleet at 21.00. Question is why are they showing different weather for same time and location? Give up!
On 22 Jan 2013, Dawn wrote:
Orkney Islands-First snow of the new year last night with thunder and lightning (21st Jan) Woke to around1.5 cm (22nd Jan), snow showers all day have pushed that level to around 2.5cm.
Past week has seen temperatures stable at 3 degC during the day, dropping to 0-minus 1 at night and gales at times.
On 22 Jan 2013, Lynne wrote:
Snow falling heavily in South East Wales for the last 3h. Accumulations well above those predicted by the Met office last week. Will be very interesting to see if Piers' predicted chill wins out over the MO thaw predicted for the weekend.
On 22 Jan 2013, Gustav wrote:
This Saturday is going to decisive. Just looking at the weather patterns established by the "ensemblist models" like GFS, and particularly the size of the COLD MASS over the East, it is just normal that standard Met in UK, France etc is in great difficulties and they even say their confidence in it is very poor... Let us see this!
On 22 Jan 2013, Grant wrote:
Although Piers has been spot on this winter, surely it is impossible that the whole weather industry gets this warm up wrong. It beggers belief. Our business subsribes to forecasts and if Piers is correct we will donate a pallet of our product to charity and make sure that all of our customers know about his accuracy.
On 22 Jan 2013, Kris wrote:
Well so far so good for your forecast Piers. Big test coming up this weekend, with little sign on most NWP of a big Greenland high (we have seen ridging from a Scandinavian high as your alternative outcome suggested, but current NWP not seeing it put up much of a fight, with a return to WSW'ly winds), with fronts indeed pushing right across the country from W to E.
Another big coup for you if yet again the models backtrack, particularly at this range! Though it should be noted the 12z run of the ECMWF has pushed the breakdown back another 24 hours or so.
Thoughts from me at present are a breakdown of the cold later in the weekend, followed into February by Mid Atlantic/Greenland height rises, and a renewed surge of cold (this time more likely from the siberian daughter vortice of the split polar vortex - more akin to December 2010 type synoptics).
Still even if the weekend does not pan out, your recent successes have shown that there is definitely something noteworthy in your method
On 22 Jan 2013, Ingrid wrote:
@Paul Ampthill is showing sleet symbol at 2100. Just saying ;)
On 22 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Just to update everyone
Its now snowing here in Kineton warwickshire, large and small flakes coming down at 20:30 Hours.
Lets see what happens through the evening, maybe itl turn into another Met office bungled forecast where it snowed for 15 hours straight and they only just told people a few hours before.
On 22 Jan 2013, tina wrote:
high pressure coming in over greenland and its warming up over the nexts few days
On 22 Jan 2013, Carl wrote:
Spoke to a relative in Cornwall who told me "Snow with Thunder and Lightning bolt of lightning hit the church of St Odulph in Pillaton. I have heard of Thundersnow in Norwich but in Cornwall this is a very rare event indeed.I bet if you go back to past records the last time that happened was Early in the 19th century and that was on the approach to the LAST LITTLE ICE AGE!!!!.Interesting to see what Piers has to say about this
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
MO showing light cloud this evening for Ampthill 21.00. Just started snowing LOL
Ron I agree, I think this weekend Piers may prove everyone wrong.Freezing rain if it happens is no fun!
On 22 Jan 2013, Dave C wrote:
I do not buy the forecasts but lilke to check this site especially in winter. The forecast for December and Jan has been incredible, and I have told friends and family about your work , and website Piers, as they often ask "how did you know this was going to happen it was not mentioned on the BBC weather" Lets see what next week brings!!!
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Paul: I looked at these sites on the recommendation of fellow posters on this one. I keep an open mind. I remember that something like this happened in 1963 when the cold air undercut the warmer and there was a major wintry precipitation event and then the cold re-established. The standard models differ from Piers' prediction and even if he is wrong this time, he has still been more correct than they were over this winter so far. None of us will be surprised if he is correct yet again.
On 22 Jan 2013, Dave Dorset wrote:
Interesting UK snow-sleet-rain real time radar here though not sure how accurate.
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/?type=rain-snow-sleet
On 22 Jan 2013, michael wrote:
22/01 @17h50 South Glos 600' asl
A very thin layer of snow on the roads from last night when i got out this morning. Most of today a slight thaw with temps around 34-36F. Snowing steadily now since about 17h00 maybe 1/8-1/4" so far. Wind easterly about 10mph gusting a bit as well.
stay warm!
On 22 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
@ Ron thanks for clarifying that one for me, I am not the best at reading weather charts/models although I try.
On 22 Jan 2013, Andy B wrote:
Some stats on long distance forecasts
http://www.energyblogs.com/weather
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Ron, don't just look at GFS, weatherweb has charts and ensebmbles from various other organisations. Weatherweb videos have stated that Canadian GEM has had a better track record this winter and based on that they said yesterday that the warm air could be forced over cold air giving freezing rain @ weekend (fairly low confidence stated). but GEm suggesting yesterday that cold would hang on over weekend
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Malcolm: This is essentially the GFS chart. The low between Scotland and Iceland seems nearer to the Hebrides than earlier, but the main airstream is west-southwest from the mid -Atlantic and the main European high is over Poland/ Western Russia. There is no high over southern Greenland at this time.
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Malcolm, looks likeit projects period of west and south west winds until the 5th of Feb, when we might get some PM air from northwest and north.
On 22 Jan 2013, JohnE wrote:
Well for a non-scientist this debate is quite fascinating. Lots of talk about milder air heading this way, a general term, and then there is the scenario put forward by Piers where we are not out of the woods yet with some very cold stuff yet to come and with February being possibly worse than the back end of January. I will watch and learn but thank you to all of those who add to the suspense
On 22 Jan 2013, Matt Havicon wrote:
Looks like you are right again Piers! You said all the models and The Met would UNDER-estimate the precipitation and the power of these little lows giving us this snow. This a.m. the rainfall/snow was hardly mentioned on the BBC but by mid-morning a few meteorologists were tweeting that the snow was going to be heavier and more widespread than originally thought. Its 4pm in Burgess Hill, W. Sussex and its pouring with snow! And showing signs of settling!
On 22 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
kevster- sorry it was more of a rhetorical statement.
Ron, although I have my doubt, I wouldnt be in the least surprised if Piers proves all wrong again.
He always has that sacrificial goat up his sleave :)
On 22 Jan 2013, Fed_Up wrote:
Joe Bastardi is going for a UK break in the weather iin 5 days as well. So, it is Piers Vs All-comers for this weekend. I think you are going to have to do a 3 goat sacrifice for your weekend forecast to come off, Piers. Good Luck!!!
On 22 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Yellow weather warning for snow has been issued for Friday by the M/O
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358769660®ionName=uk
On 22 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Not sure this temp model shows any milder weather for Saturday unless I'm missing something??
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0
On 22 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Rain is now moving into southern England and turning rapidly to snow as it meets colder air on its journey north. The M4 and M5 look to be particularly affected in the next few hours, with the M50 then having snow this evening.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=WeatherOnlineScratchBox
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Kevster: No, I don't think Piers can change a forecast. Whilst others hiding behind a £45 million computer desk can wriggle out at short notice and not be held to account, he has the guts to stick an educated neck out from 2-3 weeks before and be accountable to subscribers. I cansider any updates he produces as part of the learning process leading to improvements in subsequent forecasts. I have just watched the BBC Scotland lunchtime weather forecast. It mentions 2-3 feet of snow lying in the eastern Grampian, they certainly were not predicting this 2 days ago or even yesterday---Aye now who was the guy who said there would be 2-3 times the amount of snow that standard models forecast!!??
On 22 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21134494 <<... BBC report at 1:55 the reporter states that higher ground has seen snow 4 feet deep....... You've nailed that one down with Gold nails Piers as suggested earlier.!
On 22 Jan 2013, Rosebud wrote:
Met Office are advertising a carreer oportunity:
Space Weather Research Scientist
Salary: Starting £25,500 and for exceptional candidates up to £29,100 + competitive benefits, including Civil Service Pension.
Generic role: Scientist
Profession: Science and Engineering
12 month fixed-term, Full time at Met Office, Exeter
hmmmmmm
On 22 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
If the stable Scandinavian high continues to creep over the Shetlands toward the west, then the lows and moisture must get deflected south. This could speed up the high into place over the UK and Iceland. It is a big high which has sat there for ages. It looks to me at least like the high is going to win and push all the way across to Greenland over the next day or two.... I wonder if any of those loops of polar air have managed to get as far south as Nigeria. They have certainly reached it's neighbour Niger. At times the northern and southern loops have almost joined at the hip. So even at the equater there seems no escape from the cold, and the LIA is only just begining...sheeeeesh!....... Saskia... Snow drifting in a Volvo? Can't fault you....go for it!
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Willy: I agree the GFS projections are not conducive to Piers' current outlook, but he's triumphed against the odds before. From the GFS charts it does look likely like mild, indeed at times warm weather from Friday through to the end of the first week of February and some radical and rapid changes after that.
On 22 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Willy, can Piers change a forecast? I know standard models are run every 6 hours and so you'd expect changes, but I thought Piers just ran his model monthly. Can anyone confirm?
Ron, yes agreed, by the middle of next week standard models are telling us we should all be shivering less!!
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
The weather forecast are going for milder weather starting from the weekend. It has been broadcast so if it remains cold the Met Office are going to look stupid. Today in Lowestoft (22nd Jan) there has been a thaw with a little rain and temp of 3 degrees C. The wind is from the SSE but when it switches to a more E'ly the laying snow will refreeze and there will probably be some light snow showers.
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Just checked Nick Millers forecast on the BBC site again. The chart for Friday gives a low pressure between southern Greenland and Canada and another low between Scotland and Iceland---absolutely no sign given of an extending Greenland high. If Piers gets this one right, he deserves a medal. Fingers crossed.?( oops are those MO words?)
On 22 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
@Clive its gets more like a religion everyday, the believers believe, the prechers coin it in.
MO have predicted 7c and rain for Peacehaven on Sat, as last time, post this as a reference to how wrong they can be.
Piers looking forward to how it pans out. I'm sat here looking at your forecast and looking at the gfs charts and thinking is Piers going to change his forecast!
On 22 Jan 2013, M Lewis wrote:
Piers, MetO forecasting return to milder weather this coming weekend could be deemed reckess given the fact that the Greenland / Iceland high is pushing south towards UK. Still below zero here in East of England and little sign of it rising above freezing all today. Presumably if the cold spell locks in for the next few days and continues over the weekend, then the energy suppliers will have a strong and blunt word or two to say to the MetO and their forecast failure.
On 22 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Despite persisting predictions for warmer weather after the weekend, the Dutch KNMI also states that we'll possibly have the longest cold spell (+5 days of below freezing during the day) sinds half a century this week(1963). However, temps will rise above freezing on Monday and Tuesday, is their prediction. Whatever happens, at least I FINALLY had the experience of snow drifting with the Volvo this morning *grin* I is happy ...
On 22 Jan 2013, Nick, Gwent wrote:
I've been following the Met forecasts closely both via BBC Regional/National TV, website and mobile site ... and they ALL give different forecasts wrt precipitation. It's a complete mess. I'm looking forward to see whether this 'milder' weather comes about.
On 22 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgian National Weatherforcaster is looking very confident. Warming up after Saturday is the message with snow turning into rain next Sunday. It seems temps will reach 12°C again next week. Well I have to see it before I believe it. It's Tuesday morning for crying out loud. They can't predict the weather 24 hours ahead so why should they be able to do it a week ahead....
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Kevster: just checked again at 0955hrs. BBC still going for warming from the southwest, The Norwegian info has changed a bit, but they are stilll going for -5 to -7C on Thursday with the following Wednesday at +6, so the warming is reduced to 10 or 13 degrees.
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
MO now forecasting heavy rain and 35mph gusts for Saturday night. If things dont warm up as they expect - Canadian GEM model already hinting at this then we could be in for apocalyptic whiteout.
On 22 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Kevster: When I looked at the BBC site yesterday afternoon they were predicting a bulge of warm air engulfing the whole Britain and Ireland from the south, with southerly winds. As far as the Norwegian MO is concerned I use their predictions for Corrour as a good general indicator for the west-central Grampians. This site is around 1000ft above sea level. They were prediction frosts of -12C on Thursday and +6C for Wednesday of next week. That's a rise of 18C in warmth. I 'll check again today of course as they no doubt use standard models---and we know what can happen to them!
On 22 Jan 2013, james wrote:
Hi Piers,
I think it`s very important you clarify what you mean by it staying cold from the coming weekend, as opposed to being mild from Saturday into next week as forecast by the M.O. The M.O for our area in Manchester currently are forecasting 6 degrees Celsius in the evening & heavy rain for Saturday. Are you saying it will stay cold (like it is now) and thus be cold enough to snow again? From your comments it clearly indicates a continuation of the current very cold weather with temps not exceeding 1 or 2 dgrees celsius? I`m not asking for a specific location forecast, just whether you still expect the `less cold` air to be blocked from moving into all/ part of the U.K? Thanks (and great forecasting so far!)
On 22 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
As I said yesterday things can change quickly here in Ashington. Yesterday saw some heavy snow but temps of around 2 degrees c meant accumulations never got above 1 cm. By last night the snow became a sleety rain and most of the lying snow had cleared. This morning I was surprised to see a fresh 2cm of snow. Will be interesting to see what today brings as its snowing mod to heavy on and off.
On 22 Jan 2013, Michael Killick wrote:
Piers, it's my first comment on your site after following your work for some years and I have to congratulate you. The timings stated in your Jan forecast have been simply astounding. Even today (22nd) where you state that it will become extremely cold, you've got it spot on. Essexweather predicted overnight temps here in Chelmsford of -3C. Their twitter feed reports It actually got to -8C! A stark contrast to the last few days and right on cue as you predicted. I'm now very interested to see if the models have got the so-called "warm-up" massively wrong as you say. It will be another major victory for your methods! Well done Piers.
On 22 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
Something nasty swirling from NW France and beefing up as it crosses English Channel towards southern England. Didnt hear anything from MO about this. Nowcasting is dish of the day now is it?
On 22 Jan 2013, Susan wrote:
Piers, what do you make of 933MB storm sitting out in the North Atlantic at the moment? Any thoughts. Looks like a bit of a monster.
On 22 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Dec 2010 had 5 day 16 hours of continuous freeze here in Flitwick. Jan 2013 we just had 5 days and 19 hours beating it by 3 hours, Min low temps were not as low in 2013 but unusually we had continuous freeze with virtually constant cloud cover. Dropped to -6.6 now.
On 22 Jan 2013, Wally wrote:
It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age. Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?
I can’t help brooding on my own amateur meteorological observations. I wish I knew more about what is going on, and why. It is time to consult once again the learned astrophysicist, Piers Corbyn.
Now Piers has a very good record of forecasting the weather. He has been bang on about these cold winters. Like JMW Turner and the Aztecs he thinks we should be paying more attention to the Sun. According to Piers, global temperature depends not on concentrations of CO2 but on the mood of our celestial orb.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9814618/Its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age.html
I am speaking only as a layman who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government to start taking seriously the possibil
On 21 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
We basically had 24 hrs worth of snow as well. And it's still going. There were scores of accidents in our region, albeit limited to damaged cars, vehicles sliding off roads, etc. The wind drove the snow into little dunes here and there, and sadly enough it was impossible for our youngest to make a snowman. We had a good 15cm, footsteps left behind when walking the dog were invisible 30-45 minutes later. The weather alert lasted until Noon, but conditions basically remained the same until early evening throughout the region. The KNMI also predicts a warming chance of 80% for this weekend due to the wind turning South, but I have a sneaking suspicion we're not done yet with this cold spell.
On 21 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Ron - I'm not seeing the major warming you mention. A bit less cold seems to be the message > http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167
On 21 Jan 2013, rob wrote:
Read a good article on MSN today having a go at the colourful reporting in the papers of the current cold spell. The thrust of the writer's comments was that while it is presently cold it is by no means record breaking along the lines of 1947 & 1963 and instead of coming up with more extreme ways of describing the weather, energy should be directed at increasing preparedness so that this kind of stuff doesn't have crippling effects
On 21 Jan 2013, Luke_kent wrote:
Well what a build up this has been!!! Cold coming in from the north initially which left us pretty much dry as a bone here in mid Kent, then almost out of no where the low from the east exploded right over the top of us dumping at least 5-7 inches, more in some places. This rendered all roads essentially impassable except those with appropriate tyres and 4x4; many cars abandoned in places. Not quite as bad as 2010 though but definitely a significant snow event.
Models are predicting a warming period and the laying snow is on the melt already here and looking at the maps there doesn't see to be a way for the cold to really remain; should be good to watch though!! I hope we get more snow!!
On 21 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
The weather in Bathgate area of Scotland. Started snowing during early hours this morning about 0200hrs and it is now 2115hrs and it has never stopped, slowed down almost to a stop a few times. Small snow flakes and a depth of 3inch, shame it wasnt big flakes it would easily be 3ft by now, biting easterly wind all day. Morning temps minus 3c, afternoon temps minus 1c and now temps in evening minus 4c. Made a 5ft snowman with my wife and daughter but no igloo yet, not deep enough so maybe next week. Snow is good and wet for building with just a shame its not bigger flakes. Still great forecasting Piers by you so far out.
On 21 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Sue thanks, however I think it;s impossible to miss now. Quite a stir being caused for daring to state the obvious. The guns of the climate disciples are sending flak and outrage even appealing to the scientific 'consensus' as proof of Boris's climate heresy.(search Boris+Piers for past 24 hrs to see the venom). I think they doth protest too much. Can one little article cause so much harm to 'settled science' (like the settled MetO climate predictions)? There is also much balanced support + reportage of this ONE article. JoNova is one of many. Link >> http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/tipping-point-boris-johnson-writes-bravely-maybe-its-the-sun/
+++ Clive - you may find this by Richard Courtney of interest which details the climate scam from the early 80's Link>> http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/12/richard-courtney-the-history-of-the-global-warming-scare/
On 21 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
I see that the Norwegian MO are still going for low double figure frosts for Thurs/Friday this week in the west-central Grampians, followed by rapid warming on Saturday that will go well into the middle of the following week.
On 21 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Willy...... Tens of thousands of people must have read that book, possibly millions since 1972 but then went on to believe wholeheartedly in AGW. You just can't weigh these people up can you?......All you have to do is tell the truth, then gently smile, and nobody will believe you....... But the Global Warmers, back then, told everyone quite clearly that they were going to be conned....I guess they must have smiled...!
On 21 Jan 2013, Leighton Brook wrote:
When is your next meeting in Borough?
On 21 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Taken from the link I provided
“In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill…. All these dangers are caused by human intervention… The real enemy, then, is humanity itself,”
On 21 Jan 2013, Fanakapan wrote:
Boris is one of the few practising Politicians today who demonstrate's the prescience that such a career choice demands. The fact of his sticking his neck out in the Telegraph, is probably the Biggest indication of the deathbed poise of AGW since the 'Climategate' emails :)
It will be interesting to see how the like's of Ms Flint react ? one wonders if she will maybe reiterate her former leaders declaration that AGW heretics are 'Flat Earthers' ?
On 21 Jan 2013, Bill smith wrote:
Hi piers just to confirm your R5 period. contrary to MO we have had continuous 24hours snow in NWales. Started at 10 am Sunday. Finally stopped this afternoon . Glad I decided to invest on the forecast for February. Definitely worth the money
On 21 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
The BBC site is now going more definitively for a fairly major warming at the weekend, so we have a good test of predictions, as this is very diifferent from the WA outlook.
On 21 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@ John Thomas. Hi John. I live near you - 7 miles north of Carmarthen. Moved here in 1979 - lived in Llanwrda before that. We too have only had a bit of snow this year - so far! I well remember 1982 - had to walk 7 miles home 'cos the roads were impassible. Drifts so high had to climb up one side and roll down the other. Our village had no electricity for 10 days - unfortunately our oil fired central heating needed electricity to work. We had decent snowfall December 2010 - over a foot, and it stayed for a long time. Friends at the bottom of the valley saw -20C and had 9 burst pipes - bit of a frost pocket. Most of the time the Atlantic keeps it mild. Be interesting to see what the rest of this winter brings. Best wishes, Nick
On 21 Jan 2013, Gail from Massachusetts wrote:
You were right about increasing the wind speeds that are forecasted on tv. Watertown, New York had wind forcasted speeds of 20 to 30 miles per hour. It turned out that they had wind speeds up to 80 miles per hour! Category 1 hurricane speeds.
On 21 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
I keep watching the turbulent cloud masses all year on the Sat24 satellite images and I'm amazed at the difference to what should normally be seen, say, 20 years ago, with swirling westerly lows bringing a conveyor belt of rain showers, occasionally pushed back and deflected NE by a European high creating fine sunny weather. The scenario from space for the past several years reminds me more of a front loading washing machine on a soapy wash cycle.
On 21 Jan 2013, Clive wrote:
I think this green agenda had entered the mainstream political parties in the late 1980's. It all started during the European Elections 1989 following an exceptional mild winter. That year the Green Party had its highest vote and the mainstream parties saw that as a threat to their base and that why they decided to take up the green agenda themselves to keep out the Green Party. The mainstream parties have still have it in their head today that the Green Party are a threat and this is why they want to endorse the green agenda themselves even though the world has been cooling.
On 21 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
The BBC weather forecast today 21st Jan said that the cold spell will come to an end this weekend. Here in Lowestoft theres been another 3 inches of snow with temps at 3pm at 0.4 degrees C.
On 21 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
SUPERB COMMS ALL --- Re our WeatherAction Possible pressure scenario maps. Thanks Nic. If one actually looks at the maps rather than repeat other comments or just look at one map, you see that much of the 17-21st map was like the 12-16th - which got extended. Both cold maps. The R5+ made it very snowy in the R5+ period. So not wrong - all within stated uncertainties of pressure form and timing. Whereas MetO maps were from 5days ahead essentially wrong. Thanks Piers
On 21 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Proper climate policy?
1. Repeal the Climate Change Act. Encourage Ed Miliband to leave politics for enacting it.
2. Enshrine in law a requirement for politicians to manage responses to climate using rigorous science.
3. Remove all funding from Met Office for long-term seasonal forecasts.
4. Develop an extreme event response capability, using the New Zealand Government's approach as a first benchmark. This will include responses to floods, cold events, snow events, hurricanes, droughts, heat, threats to agriculture.
5. Ensure that the three most basic elements of existence, namely food + water, energy and accommodation are brought within a framework of being run for the benefit of the consumer/citizen, not the benefit of shareholders. This need not preclude private ownership, but will place limits on acceptable levels of profiteering.
6. Ensure that the technical expertise brought to bear in enabling this to occur includes those with the best track records, not political clout
On 21 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
John Thomas: It ain't done yet. Glenn from Norwich was saying similar things, but we haven't heard from him since the snow hit!
On 21 Jan 2013, John Thomas wrote:
Why is it don't we ever get a snow event that delivers a more that three inches to the Carmarthenshire Bay area. these days? Not once in the last 5 years have we had a real good thickness of snow like that of other areas of the country. Why do we keep on missing out all the time in having a real good snow event
On 21 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Anyone else see the Irony in ACCUweathers name?
On 21 Jan 2013, John Thomas wrote:
I live in west Wales south of Carmarthen. Although there have been real good snow events in the country during the last five years I haven't seen one here yet delivering a snow depth of more than three inches. In 1980's we used to have depths of more that a foot. In 1982 for example there were mountains of snow up to more than 15 ft 1985 also delivered over a foot of snow. None of the cold snaps have delivered any real huge snowfall yet to this part of the UK yet. I wonder why many places in west Wales like the area I live escape so likely all the time. Why hasn't there been one cold spell that has not dumped a large amount of snow this part of west Wales?
On 21 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Nick....that will be the Little Ice Age caused by increased CO2 levels will it not?......... Snow depth varying between 5 and 6 inches here and still got steady powdery flakes coming down....it's just not easing off at all. Main roads are now clear but side roads are skating rinks, with 4x4s and buses sliding all over the place. I saw some dollops of snow falling from the garden hedge and thought a thaw may be setting in, but I was mistaken. It was just the sheer weight of snow forcing the branches to bend.
On 21 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Oh bugger! The politicians are starting to talk about a Little Ice Age. They won't do anything overt until they've figured out a way to use it to raise more taxes and assume more powers. Just as they did with global warming. Be ready to tell them to leave our money and independence alone so we have the resources to do what's necessary. It is good that they are beginning to take notice though - perhaps they'll be forced to repeal the Climate Change Act. We just have to be on our guard to stop them doing what they always do - grab more tax and powers, do a few ineffective things as window dressing, and put the blame on us when it all goes wrong.
On 21 Jan 2013, Tim wrote:
I'm 17 and very interested in meteorology and I'm pretty well acquainted with the basics of weather charts, Jet Stream patterns and the weather models. I can honestly say I've never seen pattern flips at such a short range, and moving almost exactly in line with your forecasts. I'm not a subscriber but it's not hard for me to see how important your SLAT techniques are for the field. The R5+ period just gone has delivered perfectly here (Wolverhampton) with now 7+ inches of snow. It will be interesting to see how the models deal with the upcoming few weeks, I suspect they might have some pretty poor verification stats by the end of the period. Keep up the good work!
On 21 Jan 2013, Barry wrote:
RED warning just been released for almost all of Scotland and north of England on another fairly reputable site, ususally their warnings are followed up by the MET weather warnings around an hour later? anyone shed any light on this??
On 21 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Anyone know why Accuweather are showing that Norwich has had NO snow in January? I've seen reports of snow there both on the TV and in comments on here. http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/norwich/nr2-1/month/329791?view=table
On 21 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
@Andy, Ingrid. I can understand your doubts about any mis-match between Piers' forecast pressure map & actual pressures. But suggesting that the accuracy of his WEATHER forecast is down to luck does not fit the data. Piers long-term forecasts have been consistently accurate, often more accurate 4 weeks ahead than the Met Office can manage 24 hours ahead! His pressure forecasts can be more accurate than the Met Office pressure forecasts. Pressure mis-matches merely mean Piers' methods aren't perfect - show me something that is! He only claims 75% accuracy, so some mis-match between pressure forecast & actual pressure scenario is inevitable. I'm guessing 99% of subscribers buy Piers forecasts for the weather forecasts (& to support his great work at undermining the credibility of the mistaken Anthropogenic Global Warming theory) rather than the pressure map forecasts. Either way, his accuracy is too consistent to be down to luck, which you'd know if you followed his work for a few months
On 21 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Latest snow has got here to east-central Perthshire this morning (21st) and wind has got up. Difficulties no doubt for the A9 at the usual places. I see the Norwegian Met Office is going for a colder spell later in the week for the central Grampians with double figure frosts. Well done again Piers.
On 21 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
9.30am Monday 21st update from FK10. Since my last post yesterday, the granular soft hail-snow never really stopped, occasionally turning to blizzard then at about 1am it changed up several gears and has been fairly relentless since. When I went to bed there was still only about 3cm as the granules were landing and compacting very quickly. I awoke to approx 4 inches and a blizzard of big fluffy flakes which are still falling pretty intensely. The system thats bringing it has rotated round from the south east and going by the radar its trajectory has slowed and it doesn't look like its going anywhere for a while so snow on for the duration me thinks. Stay safe y'all
On 21 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Total snowfall here in NW London: 9cm + 4cm.
A bit of a thaw in between the two, but we have a uniform blanket here.
Out of interest, the Pyrenees has had a most unusually heavy bout of snow - around 7ft in one ski resort. The meandering jet stream is bringing heavy snow below the Alps this year: the Balkans are getting plenty too. The Alps have been relatively dry since the heavy early falls......
On 21 Jan 2013, Colin Kirk wrote:
One more dump of snow on top of the 2 we have had here in Lowestoft and we can start measuring the depth in feet not inches! Well nearly anyway.
On 21 Jan 2013, Nicholas Harrison wrote:
Well in my part of Eastbourne we had around 10 hours of continuous snow, mostly light flakes with occasional moderate flakes. The end result was 4.5cm-5cm.
But the snow was fantastic for making snowballs and snowmen. It's been years since I've had it so easy. I even kept my ski gloves on to do it.
The most satisfying moment was when my 15 year old son told me that he was amazed that I'd said when it was going to snow and it did. I told him that it was down to Piers Corbyn. So keep up the good work. Good to see that Boris is name checking you. It would be nice if he started paying you for your services.
On 21 Jan 2013, Piggy I.T.M wrote:
Good work Piers, a 2.9 quake in loughborough in R5+ and 15cm of snow that went under MO radar for this morning in Harrogate.
On 21 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Forgot to add: interesting to see also how the Scandinavian and Greenland Highs seem to be merging. It'll now be interesting to see whether they/it come as far south as Piers predicted, in which case brass monkeys will be on the menu.
On 21 Jan 2013, Sue wrote:
Thank you Craig M for the link to Boris Johnsons column in Telegraph...would not have seen that in Ireland.
Weather here has been a real wash out, rainy/sleet but more rain then sleet as Piers predicted, cold bearable about 0-2 C...just soggy miserable weather.
On 21 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Yesterday Sunday temps south of Aberdeen freezing and just above, light snow showers off and on all day but nothing major. This morning 1˚C, occ hail showers, lying snow has turned wet again. We are about 4 miles from the sea and its moderating influence, so much less snow than further inland.
On 21 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
Here in Ashington Northumberland its a wild morning. Sleet and wet snow and very gusty winds. No further accumulations though if anything the lying snow has eased. Sounds like there are major problems further inland though. Its not uncommon that we have these mini thaws during cold snaps here on the Northumberland coast and it can quickly change.
On 21 Jan 2013, brandon wrote:
piers what do you say about the bbc sayng this and anyone else free to comment >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21109995 there predicting warm air to reach us and rain to southern england is there any updates piers for another dose of a severe standstll atall??
On 21 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Gerry, Surrey.... I agree, the slushy stuff can be extremely slippery depending on temperatures. If the stuff is starting to freeze making stiff slush you may as well be driving on ball bearings (literally, not the ones in the wheels before anyone thinks I'm losing the plot). Frozen, crusty, crystalline snow is good as it stays grippy when compacted........ Another 3+ inches of fresh power and flakes this morning. Even buses are restricted or cancelled so the gritters are becomming useless as the temperatures drop and the sheer volume of snow overcomes their efficacy..
On 21 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Walked the dog at 1 AM and it was about a 7 BF with flurries of snow. However, the predicted snow dunes haven\t formed as of yet. Snow is expected to continue throughout the day, so we'll see. Predictions for thaw after the weekend. Yet Windfinder http://tinyurl.com/b66oqwa shows the southerly direction of the wind going East again late on Sunday. Wonder what will happen ...
On 20 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Congrats Piers! Boris Johnson's Telegraph column===>"By my calculations, this is now the fifth year in a row that we have had an unusual amount of snow...might [it] be time for government to start taking seriously the possibility — however remote — that [Piers] Corbyn is right [about an LIA]. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole. Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age.But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did 5 years ago." Link>> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9814618/Its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age.html <<===good to see further recognition of your work/forecasts & a sensible approach to emissions reduction based on saving money/keeping warm/reducing pollution instead of some imaginary tipping point.
On 20 Jan 2013, Ronan wrote:
E. Grinstead calling. Well it snowed for about 6 hrs on fri. & 5hrs today (sunday). Only 2-3 inches overall. No wind. Very fine snow both times. Main roads fine, side roads slippy.
On 20 Jan 2013, Kris wrote:
Piers, I will post in more detail tomorrow but kudos to you. You mentioned the 20th Jan in your original public warnings and said to expect double what TV forecasts suggested. Well, 14cms fell in NW Essex today...predicted was 2-5, maximum of 8.
In fairness to standard meteorology (with some tweaks!) I produce forecasts for a website and I had suggested 5-10cms for much of East Anglia and Kent (given local knowledge and seeing the rotation of the system across France, correlating that to its projected position east of the Thames estuary), and largely that was accurate for much of the region, though still double the met office estimates - ironic one of the few places that did get more than even my projections was my own back yard.
Good work my friend, and I look forward to some Greenland height rises towards early feb (GFS 18z just hinting at as of tonight and would expect the ensembles to start looking interesting this week)
On 20 Jan 2013, Josh wrote:
Piers, the bbc and met office are saying that the mild weather will return at the weekend. Any chance of this or will it stay cold? As i love the snow
On 20 Jan 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
Epsom Downs Sat 19 some light snow late afternoon. Sun 20 snow from early morning (deduced from no footprints visible from newspaper delivery) until around 6pm. Added about 1.5in to existing 3.5ins. Roads have thin slushy layer reducing grip compared to just wet road. Tattenham Corner trains not running due to works but they have a normal service planned for the morning but the rush hour services from Victoria have been cut in Southern's revised timetable.
Please can people remember to say where they are otherwise their observations are meaningless.
If Paul(Befordshire) wants some concise rebuttal of AGW claims try looking through some of the articles on Wattsupwiththat where there have been some good contributions dissecting the IPCC claims amongst others.
On 20 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Thanks Piers - I had the same problem making a snowman today and have been surprised how few snowmen I've seen despite schools being out on Friday. Even Feb 2012 with snow needles was easier. The last time I recall it taking so long to make something in the snow was 91 when snowballs crumbled in gloves rather than compacting. +++ Snow finally eased around sunset, however despite the system clearly having moved N (amber warnings now out in North Eng+Scot for Mon) there is still precipitation. Most of the snow on pavements&roads has gone, even today it struggled to build up with the small crystals falling - I thought it was rain at times - except on lying snow. As temps have dropped to -3 it's slowly accumulating on pavements again & there is an icy sheen. Wet paths now coated for first time since Fri. Looking at the MetO yellow warning for ice tomorrow another 5cm(2inches) possible but lots of uncertainty. Lol.
On 20 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Following on from Piers comment on the MO assumption of warm. If you scroll down the page, on the 17th the MO "forecast" 6c, rain on Monday 21st.
The fact that we could get more snow and sub temps is a clear indication of how wrong they are!
Read their summary forecast for 5 to 6 days ahead, its like reading a horoscope. Scribe it in such a way you have every possible scenario covered. Wet, dry, snow. sleet, rain, cold, warmer.
Like so much in this world very little is what we think it is. Luckily we have the odd brave maverick to challenge the status quo!!!
On 20 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
It's cold here feels bitter but no wind, quite still, the snow is sticking on the trees in places so no thaw, the snow is 5" deep on the lawn and the drive turned into a ice rink similar to the cold December we had in 2010 I think it was, Had to put some road grit down to get a grip to go shopping today.
Just watched the weather on Country file and at the end of the week the guy said he did not know what to expect it could be snow or rain what candour by the MO.
I feel another computer is in the offing chaps.
On 20 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Btw, the Dutch province of Limburg was hit by an earthquake this evening, around 07:30 PM. Epicentre near the city of Maastricht, force 3,4 on the Richter scale.
On 20 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Well ... looks like the KNMI has made another booboo. Orange weather alert for Northern part of the country with regard to snow dunes, and major traffic obstruction. However ... snow area seems to have already left the country, heading West! At least I can't see another major front heading our way. Too bad, would've loved to see some snow.
On 20 Jan 2013, MO wrote:
Fab work Piers, no one and I mean no one has come close toyour far out predictions. I am slightly concerned however with gfs and ecm, ukmo bringing back westerlies and mild air in your last week of Jan forecast. Are we now not observing an expanding Greenland high?
On 20 Jan 2013, Nick wrote:
Looking at the GFS forecasts it looks like next Saturday could be interesting for the SW, assuming: the cold hangs on, the GFS forecast is accurate and I've read it correctly!
On 20 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR GREAT COMMS --- One note ANDY try quoting the rest of what I said in that para and as for outcomes you have to look at a spread of synoptics over the period. Next to say similar weather by chance etc is daft. ALL the range of OUR POSSIBLE scenarios meant cold and cold is what we got. No it wasnt chance. The MetO 5d, 6d... ahead of course have been consistently too mild. --- CRAIG Comms very interesting. When I made my snowman yesterday it seemed more difficult than last time to get the ball rolling even though air temps must have been very similar - ie about 0C. THANKS Piers
On 20 Jan 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:
From Montreal, Canada, 90 km North of New York border (USA). Very accurate forecast well seen in advance. We just got through an Alberta clipper. Usually these storms are moisture starved and rather whimpy. But this last one dumped between 20 and 24 cm on the area, followed by powerful winds, a thunderstorm, heavy snowsqualls, and Bam!, the temperature is dropping like a rock from 0 to -22 late this evening. Piers, your work is very much appreciated. Thank you.
On 20 Jan 2013, CarrieH wrote:
Mark, am with you on the fun and exciting. Same small teasing flakes here in southside of Glasgow. Fingers crossed it becomes heavier. The MO is a joke as change warnings and weather on the hour. Glad I bought Piers' feb forecast as it looks interesting. Hope all are staying safe in the cold.
On 20 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Paul.... "Does anyone know a good online site with a debunking of AGW in a couple of paragraphs?" ...... How about WeatherAction. "It's the sun...not CO2!"
On 20 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Nick Stoneman you are correct, losing track of days due to meto frying my brain with to many different weather outlooks for the same periods. Now for the 20/01/2013, Sunday, similar to Saturday but no sunshine, a wee bit colder and a biting easterly, the odd tiny snow flakes back as though they are teasing us. As of 1700hrs cloud cover has got heavier with a mix of dark grey and dark blue colour through it. Is this the start of what i have been waiting for and will the Northerly blast hit in a few days. If we get both cold fronts together along with a very wet westerly over the next two weeks it is going to be fun, exciting, scary and dreadfull depending on how you accept this type of weather. Me, fun, exciting. Enough said.
On 20 Jan 2013, Ingrid wrote:
Agree Andy, the synoptic set up is totally different to Piers forecasted situation. Maybe a case of more luck than skill?
On 20 Jan 2013, steven glossop wrote:
Hi Piers, some comments on here saying you was wrong about the amounts of snow. I dont agree although here in sheffield we have only around 2in of snow. Your forcast did say poss FEET in places. Looks like more snow heading in to the east and north Sunday night and Monday. Nice one Piers keep up the great work
On 20 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
3pm in Waltham Abbey and its been snowing since 8am. Reports of heavier snow across NE London and signs the weather front is rotating over SE England. Slow moving and devastating travel disruption in its wake. MO have Greater London under Yellow Alert for 2-5cm of snow, 8cm near coast. Weve had 10cm already so i find that pitiful. Good luck out there peeps...
On 20 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Still snowing here in kineton warwickshire and its getting heavier. Forecast to carry on till the earliy hours of the morning now by BBC lol. They keep changing it to reflect more of what Piers is forecasting basically. The snow isnt yet settling on the roads as the surface temp and salt are stopping it, but as the evening draws in it will.
On 20 Jan 2013, THE POACHER wrote:
Dear Mr Corbyn, i just want to raise my glass to you sir, as i am doing right now, you are totally on the money, and also spot on with timing of the snow arrival, snow amounts,Cor i bet the political correct M O must hate the likes of you piers, you are light years ahead of them congratulations, and best wishes, THE POACHER............
On 20 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
cont...@24hrs ahead the Met office seem to briefly get it right for my area then quickly turn in the opposite direction erring on the side of caution saying it will stay further East. This has happened several times in the past few days, for example on Friday they said that flurries would die out on Saturday afternoon leaving clear skies, exactly the opposite to what has been, instead as my previous post states it turned more consistent as a band of sometimes very heavy snow showers wandered in from an easterly direction. I have been using Netweather's Radar as a guide as it seems to be far more accurate than the Met office and it can be zoomed, Its actually very easy to see the path the clouds are taking. The main problem is that it only gives you the past hour all be it up to within 15mins. It does however mean that you can judge how fast the snow precip is coming in. If only the Met office Europe radar was as accurate and included precip. amounts.
On 20 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Been snowing pellets again for the past 3-4hrs certainly heavier and more west than expected from MetO forecasts 24hrs ago. The yellow snow warning has extended west into the NW Eng/NE Wales Winds are fairly light coming from N/NE which is what Piers forecast (i.e. West attack then from SE). Whilst the depths are not like 2010 Fed_up raised an interesting point about the type of snow. In 09+10 the flakes were much larger and covered everything much quicker as a result. I would say for my area we have had more snow days than then which has kept temps around freezing but no deep cold yet. With more periods to come it will be interesting to see if the type of snow changes with movement of the high. +++ Paul, Bedfordshire if you include Feb 2009 that is 5 winters with a significant cold/snowy spell - certainly in S/SE and lots of Europe.
On 20 Jan 2013, Andy wrote:
Whilst Piers has correctly predicted snow over this weekend, it should also be pointed out that when he wrote "2. Shortly after - eg 18-19-20-21 we expect rapid expansion southward of the Greenland High." he presumably meant the Greenland Low..... and is this first time in history that "3. Excited polar-type lows in the associated airflow from the North over Norway Sea / North of North sea will bring snow/blizzards to N/E Britain" have moved northwards from France? Just pointing out that the synoptics are NOT anything like as forecast, even if by chance the outcome is much the same.
On 20 Jan 2013, Gfunkasaurus wrote:
Hi all. Update from Fishcross, Clackmannanshire. Friday night we had about 2-3cm of big fluffy flakes which by 10am Saturday had mostly melted as the temps had risen slightly. Clear skies with the the odd little cloud up until about 3pm when the clouds started joining up. The wind picked up slightly and the temps started dropping rapidly. Since about 5 o'clock last night the snow has been on and off changing from huge feather flakes in a blizzardy formation to more constant small pellet snow occasionaly turning to blizzardyness. Overnight we have had about 2-3cm which has frozen crisp. As of 1pm Sunday, still snowing on and off as the clouds seam to be streaming over head from the Firth of Forth as they were last night and the lying snow hasn't changed much. If this keeps up and gets worse overnight as is the general consensus I'm getting from Accuweather, Netweather and the Mets warnings, then we will mosrt likely have a few inches tomorrow.
On 20 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Simon, they did indeed say the next year or the year after that. But they did not say the next year AND the year after that AND the year after that as well lol. Does anyone know a good online site with a debunking of AGW in a couple of paragraphs?
On 20 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
Paul I saw that documentary also it made it seem like we never see snow here in the UK. I too was amused by the met office comment that it was a once in a twenty year event but notice how they then cover all bases by saying it could happen the next year or year after that. Strong agw flavour running through it too.
On 20 Jan 2013, Andy B wrote:
This is what many students and professors are up against in trying to get the honest truth out about climate.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrezza/2013/01/09/a-barrage-of-legal-threats-shuts-down-whistleblower-site-science-fraud/
On 20 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Light snow here started at about 9:10am and still going, BBC have forecast light snow all day till 7pm on the weather site. If thats correct then we should be looking at about 2 more inches maybe.
Trouble is, knowing the usual Met office confusion, we'l probably end up with more than that
On 20 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Watched channel 4 documentary about the Feb 2009 snowfalls which were the first widespread heavy snowfalls since 1991. Commentators described them as a once a decade or ever 20 years event (on average). Since then we have had similar events of heavy snow or exceptional cold in Jan 2010, Dec 2010, February 2012 and now January 2013. So that's a once in 20 year event for four years on the trot!
On 20 Jan 2013, Ibbo wrote:
I notice the met office models keep showing 'warm' fronts trying to encroach from the west again on the TV forecast.
There seems to be an inbuilt bias in them more that a few days away to show the dominance of the Atlantic weather systems.
I've noticed this a few times now and it seems to be occurring again, despite all evidence to the contray the western moving fronts are coming across.
I notice its snowing outside now in Derbyshire, the Met Office as of 9am this morning was forecasting this snow for this evening. The models seems hopeless when predicting anything other than westerly moving front systems...
On 20 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgium, light snow has been coming down since 8.30 am. Winds picked up and snow is falling bit by bit heavier now and is axpected to last all day. Most of the snow should come down here between 1.00 and 3.00 pm. Forcast is predicted 2 inches of snow, but by the way it's coming down now it seems we're going to have to double that. Prediction is also that southern & Eastern Belgium the snowwill change into rain later this afternoon & evening, but I find it hard to believe. Here in the north temp stays constantly @ -4°C...
On 20 Jan 2013, Steve Devine wrote:
More snow has settled here in SW Essex in 2 hours than we had in the 9 hours of snow on Friday. That front from France exploded across the Midlands and SE/E England in a matter of moments, all in line with Piers warnings. Kudos to Weather Action. Take care out there. Even main roads gettong buried in snow despite gritters best efforts. Monday commute won't be much fun tmrw...
On 20 Jan 2013, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Hi Mark from Scotland. I assume you meant 19-1-13 and not 20-1-13 in your earlier comment. Just mentioning to avoid confusion. Best wishes, Nick
On 20 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
No sooner did MO change oniine amptill forecast from heavy to light snow at midday than it started snowing at 8:30 and has since been snowing heavily with fine powdery snow and increasing wind. Still continuing with no sign of letup. This is getting farcical
On 20 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Piers "...periods are not over yet.", that's exactly what I think to myself when your forecasts end up correct toward the end of an R5. This seems perfectly normal, as the R5 starts the weather can be seen to change, but the severity invariably occurs after the R5 has been working on the atmosphere for a few days. By the end of this R5, what with the CME's and return of the big jet stream loops of polar air washing over the UK, I can see your words being nailed down with gold nails dude. Only this morning, the Beeb are warning of more snow being blown across the country all the way from the far SE to SE Scotland and beyond. I have to giggle though as I watch the rain radar because as the cloud and precipitation increase over the SE, precipitation is cracking off much further inland. In fact in less than an hour the snowfall has increased in range from Kent to Leicester. This could drop far more than we've had over the past few days where we got stuck under warmer stationary cloud.
On 20 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Snow now coming steadily again in NW London.
On Friday, the BBC's forecasts were clearly for no snow on either Saturday or Sunday up here.
Clearly wrong, weren't they?1
On 20 Jan 2013, Barry wrote:
Hello peirs congrats on giving the met/bbc anoughter good spanking. It snowed on the higher parts of Plymouth Thursday night and no warning was issued .i was working at the time and on my half hour break 5 cm of snow laid with thunder .ive nether seen snow that heavy before we coped 6 Inchs in about 3 hours .i think they would of called that a freak blizzard years ago . M/o must of known Plymouth was in with a chance but no warning was issued .
On 20 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Back to light snow at midday now LOL
On 20 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
MO forecast Ampthill to have heavy snow at midday this motning after showing light snowuntil last night and snow looks like it will be heavier than the models were showing a day ago. But then it is an R5+ so Piers proved right agai only it seems standard metrorology models are only to be trusted 6-12 hours ahead rather than 24-48 hours in an R5+
On 19 Jan 2013, James Whittred wrote:
Well said Piers, no one is ever going to predict accumulations for every part of the country. The £15 i spent in December has been well worth it, here in Norfolk you have been spot on with your predictions where as the Met Office seem to change their mind every hour. Even now the met office show snow over the region at present yet their radar shows the nearest precipitation is north of the Humber ! I look forward to your forecast for February.
On 19 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Whilst downtown LA was cold (also in N California) Alaska has been above freezing with rain melting snow. The temps have been up and down this winter but plenty of time left to cool again. In late jan/early feb 1947 the lowest temp -81.4F(-63C) was recorded in Yukon Alaska. When the high pressure system (1032mbs) dropped the strong westerly zonal circulation in the upper atmosphere slipped south with frost in N Florida and 45F(7C) in Yukon. Now look at the swings this winter Image Link>> http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BU583_ALASKA_NS_20130114182111.jpg <<===could that record be beaten in the next few weeks?
On 19 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
@hankscorpion....on the subject of ridicule
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
On 19 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Henk from Holland is right: the Dutch KNMI expects snow dunes late Sunday night. In combination with a 'stormy wind' (probably 7 to 8 BF) and actual temperatures of -6 Celsius, it could spell cold with a capital C! Not to mention disruption of traffic. Well, we'll see what happens. I for one would like to see a bit of snow, as do the kids ;-)
On 19 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
In R periods we can expect an increase precipitation & this sounds on cue "Miami missed the record number of consecutive 80 degrees days by 1 degree. Rain hit the area, dropping the temperature" earlier the article said "Miami's January record of consecutive days above 80 degrees is 15, which was set in 2002. As of 11 a.m. Wednesday, Miami tied their January record. Link >> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-warmth-in-miami/4258635. <<===note the solar signal. +++ Downtown LA dropped to 34F (1C) on 14th Jan. 14 Jan "the reading dropped...to 34 degrees, matching the lowest recorded temperature in downtown since Dec. 23, 1990.On Dec. 22 and 23 of 1990, the low reached 33 & 34 degrees, respectively...Temperatures have not dropped to freezing in downtown LA since Jan. 29, 1979" Link >> http://bit.ly/UuEekT << ~22 + 33 years ago. All these dates link well with memorable winter events in UK+Europe
On 19 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
All day on the 20/01/2013 Sunday the temps did not go above freezing, the sun was out for short spells but with no heat felt. Biting easterly breeze/wind all day. Previous report of snow last night, snow stopped during night as only about 20mm on ground this morning, the temps are good for snow as all day and tonight there have been small flurrys off snow, we need a big rain cloud to come over and we will get snowmaggedon easily. It is now 2215hrs and again like last night good snow falling but it is from scattered clouds and not consistent. Meto have included rain in there forecast again for east Scotland on Monday and Tuesday just like we were ment to get a bit of rain today which we didnt. If we had the temps they forecast yes it would rain but we are averaging 5c cooler than they say we are, so yet again i dont think we will see rain with the big band of cloud due on Monday, it will SNOW.
On 19 Jan 2013, Richard wrote:
Hi Piers,
Very impressed as always with your 'Long Range' forecast - It seems people quickly forget that you forecast so far ahead of events and only focus on small discrepancies between you and their only other alternative - The Met O or BBC.
I can offer some CONSTRUCTIVE feedback too, as I partly agree that your headlines are exciting and attention grabbing, but potentially open you to attack if there are any minor variables form what you forecast. Brave and Honest but open to attack.
People are cruel and short sighted for the most part, and with powerful forces bent against your science this could become problematic.
Anyway I for one can use my wisdom to see that your service and your forecasting is a great step foreward and highly accurate!
If we can get more of the public on side, we will have the Global warming chaps on the ropes!
On 19 Jan 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR EXCELLENT INPUT ---- One point HANKSCORPION the prob is that a certain number of vocal people on the sites you refer to neither read our forecasts nor report accurtely on what they hear. I have received a number of insane claims that OTT things we did not say did not happen. These are from churlish people who have problems with ibe wonders. If there is truth in what you say it does not apply to the headline for this month, which if any less forthright would be an underforecast. NOTE (also applies to other below) on snow amounts this and other periods are not over yet. We referred to POSSIBLY FEET (ie 1ft plus esepc in drifts) that has occurred (and we dont say for everywhere - see forecast terminology guide on p6 of fc)...HEADLINE FOR 30d A stuttering cooling trend in early January
then turning very cold especially in East.
Exceptional snow/rain with major
blizzards in many parts after mid-month
and end Jan into Feb - probably becoming
rain in SW England & S Eire.
On 19 Jan 2013, Manbearpig wrote:
I think the mo have lost it totally. Each time I have looked there the forecasts are different.
On 19 Jan 2013, Hankscorpion wrote:
Piers... Loving your work and your accuracy. If you were a bit less 'sensationalist' then the wider community would take you more seriously. I think you should write your forecasts and website as a weather report rather than the 'Daily Express/Mail' shock headlines that seem to appear on this site. Having checked the weather forums you are ridiculed because of this when you should be celebrated. Keep up the good work but please review the way you report the facts or your good work will become tomorrows fish and chip newspaper along with the celebrity crap the tabloids churn out.
On 19 Jan 2013, Henk wrote:
Hey everyone...I follow the site of Pierce more than a year and it is unbelieveable how accurate his predictions are...the dutch weather institute KNMI has warned the whole country for several cm of snow..when I check GFS or other models it is 5 to 10 cm... But KNMI has mentioned snow dunes for tomorrow evening for the north parth of Holland...Pierce succes with your predictions.!
On 19 Jan 2013, Ken wrote:
I notice that some folk are saying that there hasn't been as much snow as some predicted. The most remarkable thing for me about this snowfall is when it was first predicted. It was in my 45 day forecast produced on 17th December 2012. By the way that forecast to my mind was extremely accurate about the snow in the northwest of england. That more than anything demonstrates the techniques used by weather action merit very close attention.
On 19 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Today is looking like it will be the fourth consecutive day that it did not get above 0.0 at any point during the day according to my weatherstation here in Flitwick. Tomorrow and Monday are both set to be sub zero according to MO
To put into perspective, the maximum consecutive run of "ice days" in December 2010 was 5. This cold snap is equalling Dec 201, just need the ultra low nights now. Canadian GEM are forecasting London to be lower than -10 on Tues and Friday.
On 19 Jan 2013, the snowman! wrote:
its so stupid the bbc site yesturday said snow for southern england now its saying just cloud its like they erased the snow?! how they get everything wrong just confuses me!
On 19 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Piers, at end of next week models are showing some very heavy rain coming in from the west. If this falls as snow it will be snowmaggeddon. Is there any likelihood of this?
On 19 Jan 2013, Fed_up wrote:
@Snow_Joke. Yes, the 1 foot of snow forecast didn't quite pan out. One observation: The snow that fell was the fine, dusty type that I seem to recall from last winter. I wonder how deep the snow would have been if it had been the more usual large fluffy type that we have in the U.K? I understand that the fine, dusty type of snow is associated with v.cold atmospheric conditions. It may be something to take into account when looking at forecasts? Still a stonking success for Piers, though!
On 19 Jan 2013, Richard Brown wrote:
Hi Piers: spot on as usual. Many congratulations!! I am concerned that the cold weather is on its way out though. Here on the East coast of England, we have had lots of snow but we could do with more. Lets hope the MO are wrong about the milder weather coming.
On 19 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Pierce, I gues Belgian national meteo is starting to belive your forcasts hahaha. New weather update is frost at night and day for at least till next Sunday and they said it's not sure at all the cold weather will turnaround after that. New snow zone is expected to arrive tonight in the south climing north during the day tomorrow bringing an extra 2 inches of snow... Last Monday they predicted half an inch and we got 2. Shall we double the amount for tomorrow ? We'll see...
On 19 Jan 2013, Geoff Whitnall wrote:
Hi Piers - is this situation also behind the heatwave and delayed monsoon in Australia?
Thanks
Geoff
On 19 Jan 2013, Snow_Joke wrote:
Firstly let me start by saying I am a big Piers fan.
The SSW forecast and the timings where spot on. However please lets try and keep a sense of perspective. Four to six inches of snow is NOT exceptional.
Apart from parts of S Wales the snow experienced on Friday was no worse than a normal snowy winter's day. From Lancashire northwards there was little to no snow.
The conditions forecast in the apocalyptic warnings at the top of the page, the snow depth, area, wind, cold etc just did not happen. I would welcome any scientific explanation as to why this wasn't the case.
On 19 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Hi snow crisp and even here and sticking around,The Sky was an eerie orange hue last night and it was light enough to see the outline of the trees I am not sure if it was street lights or the moon reflecting through the clouds and then off the snow, no street lights near but 3miles away, Nice sight though. Oh made a snow thing, a bit like a polar Bear thought it would be topical at this time.
On 19 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Weatherweb latest video shows snow events coming up from south on Sun and from West on Mon.Video near end shows latest GFS chart estimating snow depth at 12-14cm over central and southern England by Mon 18.00. All MO is showing for Ampthill is light snow Sunday and dry but heavy cloud Monday. Shurely Shome Mishtake?
On 19 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Bit of a change happening in NE Derbyshire. A strong bitterly cold east wind is now blowing (19th..am), and freezing sleet on higher ground is adding to 3 inches (75mm) of snow. Snow is drifting to over 2 feet against walls and making 4 to 5 inch drifts across the country lanes. The council gritters have gone mad and are keeping all the main arteries slushy. Saw a farmer clearing the slush and snow with a plough on his tractor (blimey - progress).The freezing sleet is still falling at lower levels and is gradually increasing snow depth. Another inch of powder snow has made our back garden around 3 to 4 inches now. The trees and bushes along the country lanes are now white with frozen sleet...very pretty.
On 19 Jan 2013, Carl wrote:
Another huge success for weatheraction Piers with all that snow and disruption.And Piers has got another prediction correct too.The Met office knew it was coming from around 48 hours but they were giving different scenarios saying 24hours ahead that Milder air would tuck into the South.Nope!!!.And also computer models seem to be everywhere as well giving different outcomes They just cannot handle approaching LIA patterns
On 19 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
No snow here. Wind chill temps down to lower than -13 Celsius last night. Dutch KNMI forecast is for (actual) temperatures to drop to -12 C during the night of 25 January, but with increased chances for thaw after that (hmmm). Slight snow for tomorrow with the exception of the upper North, and 'very cold winter weather'. You don't say ...
On 19 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Woke up this morning and was curious to see what the night brought in Belgium. Unfortunately it seems that national weatherforcasters were right by predicting "light snow". We hardly got an extra 0.5cm.
On 19 Jan 2013, Yorkie wrote:
This will be fascinating, as Piers has forecast something completely different in the 18th - 21st period than the Met Office are forecasting. Piers is saying that HP builds over Greenland and polar lows will form to the North of Britain and move down to bring heavy snow to the North and East and colder temperatures, whilst the Met Office is suggesting lows moving up from the South and in from the West to bring some snow but also slightly milder temperatures, which then indicates a probable change to rain in the South as well . Time will tell .... Good Luck Piers and full marks for predicting the cold spell in the first place.
On 19 Jan 2013, Geoff Hood wrote:
Gerry of Surrey
if you bought piers forcasts for the year at less than 35p per day,,,you would not need to ask about the snow for the weekend
all i would say is that Tesco may have stop selling Beefgurgr but they still sell snow shovels
On 18 Jan 2013, Karl - Hampshire wrote:
Hi Piers, well deserved congratulations on your forecast AND a big thank you. I run a small business and missing even one day can effect cash flow and profit. With your forecast of heavy snow (well in advance) I was able to plan - you have helped my business! If I had planned around the Met Office/BBC forecasts I would have been bunkered down for the beast that didn't arrive in December and wouldn't have been ready this week.
On a separate note, the reference to the GFS model in your comments/public advice confused me a little. Should I be looking at the GFS models or is that an example of models going wrong?
Thanks again, Karl.
On 18 Jan 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Hi Piers The Great Snow Eagle from the North has spead its wings over the NE :D
On 18 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Well well, i am over the moon, as of 1830hrs tonight in thhe Bathgate area of Scotland tiny snow flakes started falling, very light ffor a few hours then turned to medium sized flakes and a bit heavier then medium sized mixed with moth sized flakes and a bit more heavier as of 2230hrs, staying on ground but not deep yet so lets hope for more.
On 18 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
No snow here, wind chill down to -9 Celsius. Interesting fact: on the KNMI website there suddenly appeared a story about the "horror winter of 1963" during which the most harsh so-called Elf Steden Tocht (Eleven City skating event) took place. Why? Does the KNMI suspect that this winter might not be as 'warm' after all?
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont (3)...Now let's see what John Hammond had to say less than a week ago on 12 January 2013 " Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK's icy blast By John Hammond BBC Weather....It may stay cold, it may get warmer. +++We do not know; in fact, anyone who tells you definitively what next week's weather will be like is whistling in the wind.+++
Link >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895 << ==== Does that sound like a prediction to you? The Met Office+BBC are utter charlatans [wiki translation: "practicing quackery or some similar confidence trick in order to obtain money, fame or other advantages via some form of pretense or deception".]+++So let's put this straight as it really is shameful. PIERS PREDICTED THE COLD BLAST +++TO THE DAY+++ MID DEC unlike the BBC/MetO who waited until it was inevitable - less than one week & even then were not sure. Piers wins hands down over these quacks!
On 18 Jan 2013, Andy wrote:
No doubt this will not really be cold weather because it will be trumped by warm weather in Australia.Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Beeb weather propaganda bunker at the moment.
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
...cont (2)...so they failed in December-utterly. They even admitted they do not know if/when an ssw will affect the BI just it increases the chances. Fast forward to 8 Jan 2013 "Exactly how cold it might be depends on the details of where the air comes from. SSWs don’t always result in this outcome – but a cold snap follows more often than not, so the SSW greatly increases the risk of wintry weather.
Can we predict these events in advance? Currently we can reliably predict individual SSWs about a week in advance, and we can detect them early on with satellite and other observations. +++ This means we have some time to see how they develop and may impact our future weather+++." Again no mention of when/where etc....cont....
Link>> http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
On BBC1 at 7:30pm John Hammond was waxing lyrical about how the MetO predicted this cold spell/SSW. So let's look at what was said to show their UTTER LIES. Remember the 'beast from the east' which Piers rightly said would fail as mild air would win out? 4th Dec 2012. "Met Office observation systems have picked up a minor SSW in the stratosphere over the past few days, suggesting that this may have an impact on the UK.
Jeff Knight, a Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Satellite & other observation data show that there is a minor SSW going on and this is one factor amongst many others which could perpetuate the colder than average conditions we have seen recently. It could take anything from a few days to a few weeks if it is going to have an impact. However, it’s consistent with the current 30-day outlook from the MetO which favours colder than average conditions albeit with a fair amount of uncertainty.”...cont...
On 18 Jan 2013, Gfunakasuaurs wrote:
Greetings from Clackmannanshire. Hope everyone's coping and looking out for those in need in the midst of this current weather assault. Met have changed their tune many times over the past 2 days for central scotand and latest update for my area is a few sbwers but the runt being kept to the east ie Fife and Angus ish. Well it started snowing about an hour ago and doesn't look like stopping. Proper big flakes with piercing south easterly. Lookin at the rainfall radar it looks like the big snow system is being shoved up the east coast of the uk and directly across clackmannanshire. Well done Met, even I can see that. Do they actually look at their own charts? On a side note, my broadband's been playin silly buggers all day, is this likely to be caused by the solar flare?
On 18 Jan 2013, Justin wrote:
Hi Piers, going by the comments you seem to have become our very own Father Snowmass!! Lol.
On 18 Jan 2013, jocky scot wrote:
" big lightning flashes hours apart in Tayport. No thunder ans lots of static.
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Once the snow started temps dropped below freezing and stayed there! In town the snow -powdery-was 85-90mm (over 3 inches) but 120mm (5 inches) back at home. My home is not on high ground so MetO underestimated but not by much. Other places have fared better-as I am central Eng I didn't expect a major blizzard this time. The snow died off by ~4pm and became very light. Around 6 it picked up but is still light but accumulating on the roads and pavements as most people went home early. Snow will continue lightly and another system is due Sun/Mon with frequent snow showers. The cold temps over the next few days over the snow fields bear watching. Sone sub -10s possible.
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Once the snow started temps dropped below freezing and stayed there! In town the snow -powdery-was 85-90mm (over 3 inches) but 120mm (5 inches) back at home. My home is not on high ground so MetO underestimated but not by much. Other places have fared better-as I am central Eng I didn't expect a major blizzard this time. The snow died off by ~4pm and became very light. Around 6 it picked up but is still light but accumulating on the roads and pavements as most people went home early. Snow will continue lightly and another system is due Sun/Mon with frequent snow showers. The cold temps over the next few days over the snow fields bear watching. Sone sub -10s possible.
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Once the snow started temps dropped below freezing and stayed there! In town the snow -powdery-was 85-90mm (over 3 inches) but 120mm (5 inches) back at home. My home is not on high ground so MetO underestimated but not by much. Other places have fared better-as I am central Eng I didn't expect a major blizzard this time. The snow died off by ~4pm and became very light. Around 6 it picked up but is still light but accumulating on the roads and pavements as most people went home early. Snow will continue lightly and another system is due Sun/Mon with frequent snow showers. The cold temps over the next few days over the snow fields bear watching. Sone sub -10s possible.
On 18 Jan 2013, Shell wrote:
Snowing thunder and lightening here in east Yorkshire.
On 18 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
It appears the models are still all over the place. For the South East the MO has no real snow for Sunday, Warming and rain into Tuesday. The GFS model has snow Sunday and colder air than today!!
Mind you when I check in an hour it could be anything....just as you predicted they are all over the place.
On 18 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Michelle... "I have my fingers and toes crossed!"..... So that's why you've been walking oddly and keep dropping things....... This weather is very strange. Our car was very warm after doing a lot of running about today. I left it out on the road for less than one hour and when I went to start it again, the windscreen was covered in ice blobs, and the wipers were frozen to the windscreen. I went to wipe off the snow which had accumulated on the lights but that was frozen solid too. Luckily through the rush hour, the traffic has melted a lot of the snow and the snow has retreated to just a few tiny flakes....for now. The air seems very cold tonight though, that extra shivery cold that cuts right through you.
On 18 Jan 2013, Gerry, Surrey wrote:
Epsom Downs - light snow from 8.30am when left for work at Westminster. Persistent snow in city but not settling. Left early as Tattenham Corner line closed around 1pm so had to find alternative route home. Have 3.5ins of light powdery snow and it is snowly very lightly at 6pm. Snow arrived earlier than forecast. Question: is that it or is that just a taster ahead of much heavier falls as Piers predicts for Sun/Mon?
Interesting to overhear comments at work saying that Met can't seem to decide what it happening. Was referring to forecast for Essex saying rain on Monday that had now changed to snow.
On 18 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
On Wednesday 16th Norwich had heavy snow around midday and there were reports of thunder. Last night (18th)at at 00:12 hrs there were several flashes of lightning and some muffled rumbles of thunder accompanied by heavy snow in Lowestfoft. This morning there was 3 inches of snow.
On 18 Jan 2013, Lorraine wrote:
BBC today blizzards and a red warning but guess what they had to mention alongside their bulletin Australia had its hottest day on record .... I
On 18 Jan 2013, Paul G wrote:
...Here in E of Ireland we have rain and more rain : < ( Have a big snowball fight for us,he he.Peirs once again a big CONGRATS on your spot on forcast for UK : < )
On 18 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgian national weatherforcast is light snow for tonight and tomorrow. Now this is interesting. I have a weatherstation in my kitchen that is quite accurate. It shows snow is coming, but the interesting part is that the snow indicator is flashing. When it flashes it means HEAVY snow. Total contradiction with the national weatherforcast. I wonder who's going to right, the small device in my kitchen or the guys we pay our taxes for !!
On 18 Jan 2013, Emma wrote:
Hi Piers, we've had roughly 5 inches in Dorset, will it continue over the weekend or is that it until the end of the month? Got to drive tomorrow, every weather app I have says a different thing.
On 18 Jan 2013, Jim wrote:
Still no sign of snow here in Norwich at 4.45pm looks like it holding out to the west of Norfolk and dissipating before it reaches here. Oh well will make do with what we've already got on the ground i suppose !
On 18 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Snow stopped here around 3.45pm after about 7hrs.
We have 8cm or 9cm depending on where you measure.
If the BBC"s right, we won't get any more before the weekend's out.
Time will tell I guess........
On 18 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Hi Piers, kilsyth to Bathgate area and central belt M8 area has been a beutifull morning, minus 3c with a easterly wind chill of minus 6c. Considering it is cold enough for frost, there isnt any as the air is very dry, the sun has been out from 0800hrs with no heat but what a lovely cold bright day. Any damp or wet areas of ground are solid due to temps but as i said air feel dry and very clean. The Meto have changed there minds a few times now about the snow that we were due today so snowing and no snow was the forecasts, fly buggers. They have now forecast rain for Edinburgh to Aberdeen today and tommorow. What the hell are they like, i will let you know what we do get.
On 18 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Here in Fryslân (Netherlands) a few tiny flakes of snow, but steadily dropping temperatures. The wind (East) is gaining in force, expected to become strong (6BF) later this evening/tomorrow. Wind Chill is currently about -6 Celsius.
On 18 Jan 2013, ciscokid wrote:
This is getting hilarious now! Piers and WA friends - please check out the Manchester Evening News - headline "Snow idea: Met Office forecasters change mind for THIRD time and reinstate amber snow alert" LOL They really are pathetic!
On 18 Jan 2013, Paddy NE Scotland wrote:
Steady strong Southerly all morning here south of Aberdeen, broken cloud and sunshine, very occasional light snow flurry. Snow still lying from Monday night's drop, about 5" but shrinking as we are only 4 miles from the sea. It's both freezing and thawing at the same time, hard to believe I know, just depends on where you're standing. Feeling raw in the wind. I know many people want snow, I'm not that keen because things get more difficult on the farm, but I'll happily put up with it because it is also very beautiful.
On 18 Jan 2013, F G wrote:
All 'hail' Piers! Well alright, snow then. Weather has arrived as predicted here in Dartford, on time and on budget. Now, if we can just work on those Lottery numbers......
On 18 Jan 2013, Michelle wrote:
Any snow to South Yorkshire? I have my fingers and toes crossed!
On 18 Jan 2013, Matt wrote:
6 inches has already fallen just outside Basingstoke Hampshire. Been falling at around an inch an hour since this morning.
On 18 Jan 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Belgium, 14.00 pm.
Still no snow to be seen. Predictions are a little bit of snow allong the costline and maybe some snow tonight. Looking at radar maps the depression is on the right track, but I really doubt it'll get to Belgium. There are reports of heavy snow in France as well.
On 18 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Widespread 5cm coverage in NW London after 4hrs of snow. Still coming down in big fat flakes. Apparently, the heaviest falls will be after 12 noon......10 - 15cm certainly possible here.........
On 18 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Well isn't that just typical(?) Approaching front turns the Brecon Beacons into a replica of Antarctica, and what does it do when it gets to Derbyshire? Stops dead in it's tracks, has a little sleep, ponders it's next move, anything but flippin snow. .......... That's a very active low over Italy though, big swirly thing and lots of lightning being fed by cloud from the east and the west, with minimum temps across northern Italy hovering around -5C to -6C. Could get heavy snow tonight maybe.
On 18 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Just an update for everyone to say its snowing heavily here now in Kineton Warwickshire with accumliation of about 3.5-4 inches in places and we still have hours of snow to go with snowfall forecast tomorow aswell. With the temps not getting above freezing for days its going to make getting around pretty tricky.
Geting abit like 2010 round here :)
On 18 Jan 2013, Gareth wrote:
Methinks the country as a whole should rely on Piers in future. You watch the forecast on BBC and get one picture - you log onto to Met Office web site a minute later and you get a totally different story! You can't believe either of them any more.
On 18 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Well here down in Hampshire I have to admit the MO got it spot on. 5-10 cm they said a few days ago and we're probably at around 6. I'd love to see a doubling or trebling but if the front weakens as the MO suggest, I can't see it happening. Same with the wind - I am hoping for a doubling there but it seems in line with MO forecasts so far. Congrats to Piers for the general cold theme, but hats off too to the MO for the detail and coping well with one of the most difficult situations in years.
On 18 Jan 2013, ciscokid wrote:
Piers, what do you make of the MO retracting their Amber warning for North-West England? They said that the atmosphere had "re-configured" itself lol. In mid-cheshire my folks have had at least half an inch of snow so far!
On 18 Jan 2013, Craig M wrote:
Snowing pellets lightly since Thurs morning on and off warming slightly to around freezing as the wind shifted E/SE.At c.9amFri started proper and over 2.5 hrs have 55mm. Flakes small until a few mins ago when changed to 5/ 20p piece size. Footprints disappearing quickly and the worst is to come in next 3-4 hours. Winds now E.
On 18 Jan 2013, John Meakin wrote:
About an inch or so of snow here in Somerset (Ilminster). Light snow flurries around noon and temperatures just above zero, so side roads turning slushy. John Hammond on the BBC Weather site now says SSW has peaked, yet predicting cold to stay all next week with concerns about the next approaching Atlantic front.
On 18 Jan 2013, Sai Ammy wrote:
Its sunny but cold and rather windy here in Glasgow.
On 18 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Blizzard conditions Peacehaven, 11.30 -9.4 wind chill, 30mph wind, solid SE wind. So again hats off to Mr Corbyn...remarkable forecast!!
On 18 Jan 2013, M Lewis wrote:
BBC reporting earthquake in East Midlands.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-21073263
Piers - is the result of yesterday's CME? Will the weather get worse over the weekend?
On 18 Jan 2013, Will Cooper wrote:
We have 8ins (20cms) in Easterton, on the N edge of Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire. Drifts of 1-2ft in places. Met Office only said 5-10cms, so just as you said Piers, double or triple the totals, and look what we have = 20cms (8ins).
Fantastic call Piers, and there's talk of further blizzards and heavy snow for Wiltshire on Monday.
On 18 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Hi Piers, Just been out to measure the snow it is 6" deep and it,s still falling,Not as windy as i was expecting but the days still young.
Well Done you got it right on the button to the DAY. Time 11.17 friday 18th Jan 2013.
On 18 Jan 2013, Diane wrote:
I think Piers got it right! here in Northern Ireland it's cold and damp, but no sign of snow thankfully. Although I'm from Belfast, I'm currently taking a break on the north coast for the weekend, so far so good!
On 18 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Here in Flitwick it is now snowing heavily. Temperature was -0.2C to -0.4C between 16.00 yesterday and 04.00 this morning. Since 04.00 it has been falling steadily. Snow started about an hour ago and temp is still falling, now -2.8C
I can never remember a temperature fall like this coinciding with a winter low precipitation from the west. Wow.
Wife arrived home covered in snow and reports panic buying in local supermarket.
On 18 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
We got another inch or so last night but it was just very steady tiny flakes. I'm sat here at 9:45 am waiting for the big dollop to arrive, watching it approach on the rain radar. Drove up to higher ground this morning 1200ft above sea level and found 3 inches of fresh snow on top of crunchy solid ice. I passed a small 4x4 which couldn't get up a gradient and was slipping all over the road in it's efforts. Treacherous! The main trunk roads were all perfectly clear though even at this height, but this is before the band of precipitation arrives. Oops! I peek out of the window and what do I see? Tiny flakes are beginning to fall in Chesterfield 10am. It's here!
On 18 Jan 2013, Andy wrote:
Excellent work Piers.Buying your forecast enabled me to ensure my elderly parents were forewarned and prepared for the worst of the weather. Thank you.
On 18 Jan 2013, jocky scot wrote:
Snow and freezing winds in Tayport. I think this is the big one.
On 18 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
(cont.) The thickest snow was measured in Zeeland and Zuid-Holland, where 15 to 18 cm of snow was measured on Tuesday morning in the vincinity of the cities of Delft and The Hague. The southern and eastern part of the country also received several centimeters of snow during the day.
Snow did not fall in the North and northwestern part of the country, although several centimeters were deposited locally by snow fronts moving in from the North Sea.
First (severe) frost
Berneath a clear sky temperatures dropped significantly above the snow during the night of 17/18 January. It froze more than 10 degrees Celsius in several places, the first (severe) frost of this winter. Just past 8 AM the KNMI measuring station in Herwijnen recorded -18,0 Celsius, -15,0 Celsius in Woensdrecht and -13,0 Celsius in De Bilt.
The wintry weather will continue for now.
On 18 Jan 2013, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:
Bulletin by the Royal KNMI of 16 January (translated)
Snow depression above The Netherlands
16 January 2013 - Continuous snow fell across a major part of The Netherlands on 14 and 15 January. Most of the snow fell in the provinces of Zeeland and zuid-Holland, particularly during the night. The snow caused extensive disruptions for both tyraffic and public transportation.
The snow was the result of a depression moving South along the English east coast. The snow depression made landfall in the southwestern part of the country in the evening of 14 January and gradually spread across the country. It continued snowing throughout most of the day of 15 January across a band from the East to the West of the country.
The snow depression was re-activated again around noon, after which it slowly moved South and East. It snowed longest in the province of Limburg, where it continued throughout the night of 15/16 January. (continued)
On 18 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Aye and let's not forget how 'new' snowfall coming in from the East--roughly Kent to The Wash and a bit further north, was also predicted weeks ahead. Confused messages( eh what!) coming from the MO-Beeb regarding Scotland---looks like Eastern Grampian and Tayside regions might get a pasting later today--so what's in store for the A9 at the Slochd Summit, Drumochter and the infamous Perth to Dunblane section?---a £45 million guess?
On 18 Jan 2013, Rob wrote:
A date for everyone's diary. Just to let you Sunday the 20th Jan is World Snow Day
On 18 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Heavy snow started in NW London at 8.35am.
On 18 Jan 2013, Lynne wrote:
Spot-on Piers! Congratulations - snowing heaving here in South East Wales and showing no signs of abating. Just as you forecast at the end of Dec.
Subscribers should claim a rebate from the government for tax spent on the MO!
On 18 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Same here in Kineton warwickshire, about half an inch at the moment and building, winds are picking up and snow flakes are like powder coming from the sky.
When the flakes get bigger if they stay at the same intensity were in trouble
On 18 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
An earthquake with a magnitude of 2.9 has been felt in the east Midlands, according to the British Geological Survey.
http://news.sky.com/story/1039681/earthquake-felt-in-east-midlands
On 18 Jan 2013, Devon Dave wrote:
Morning all - well here in Exmouth, despite being in the MO snow zone, we have nothing, even with temp +1.2C. Strange because yesterday we had flakes of snow with temp +4C. Explanation anyone?
On 18 Jan 2013, occasionally David wrote:
It snowed more or less continuously for around 6+ hours yesterday in Birmingham. There may be as much as half an inch of snow on the ground as a result.
We await today with anticipation and a nugget or two of doubt.
On 18 Jan 2013, Chrissy wrote:
Here in my little bit of Pennine West Yorkshire it wasn't supposed to properly snow till Friday afternoon. Depending of course on which forecast you caught because they kept changing it!
But it started on Thursday and snowed all Thursday evening. Perhaps the met office should hire Piers....
On 17 Jan 2013, John Meakin wrote:
Here in Somerset, I stuck my head outside early evening and it felt quite mild. Then again at 10:30pm and it was much colder. Ian Fergusson was good again today forecasting for BBC West. At 10:30pm he said rain turning to sleet was already into Cornwall and heading east. Though not a dicky bird tonight about anything beyond Sunday, Ian previously suggested we could go through it all over again on Monday with the next lot coming. I can see a lusty headline coming - something like "WeatherAction Runs Rings Around UK Met Office -- Govt Asks Why!". Well done Piers. Spot on!
On 17 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
The meto are still unsure of how severe this is going to be, every forecast today has increased its warning for snow depth and ground coverage every half hour forecast. There was to be no snow in Scotland tommorow, well maybe a wee bit, but now they are forecasting snow for the east from Aberdeen to Edinburgh. Piers Corbyn did state that meto would stuggle to understand the severity of this weather type 12 hrs out, Well done Piers and Weather Action.
On 17 Jan 2013, Devon Dave wrote:
23.00 hrs, temp 5.2C in Exmouth, in the MO snow zone. Never known it snow at a temp of 5C. Will need a significant drop!
On 17 Jan 2013, Lorraine wrote:
Can't wait till tomorrow morning the BBC can't play this one down to a jet stream shift .... It's freezing prayers for those homeless souls
On 17 Jan 2013, spen and cathy wrote:
Hi piers, cant believe you predicted the snow for the next few days, way back in dec! Your method and understanding of the suns influence on the Earth is second to none.
It has been snowing in west yorkshire for 4 hours now and covered, yet the forecast earlier today was of a few flurrys, nothing more and very hit and miss. (not heavy snow but still not forecast).
If tomorrows meto warnings dont change over the next few hours I will be shocked.
Thanks for the free info, real help to people needing a real forecast.
On 17 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
What you need in the car before you travel tonight and tommorow, shovel, torch, tow rope, jump leads, high vis vest, breakdown warning reflective triangle or cone, de-icer and scraper, windscreen wash topped up with proper anti-freeze mix, NOT JUST WATER. Also engine coolant at the proper ratio of anti-freeze, with just plain water in a engine it will freeze and crack the engine. Incase you get stuck in a traffic jam due to snow make sure your fuel tank is full before you leave your town or fill up at the nearest filling station. To keep you warm in these temps sleeping in a car with engine off to save fuel you will need a duvet for under you to stop cold coming up the way, a minimum 400grm sleeping bag, then the other half of the duvet should be wrapped over the top of you, remember half the duvet is already under you, a double duvet is better with a high tog , extra warm clothes and warm hat, mobile phone charged. Anything else you can think of for warmth, recovery, food for energy
On 17 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Jim - I sincerely hope they don't. Level 3 requires that focus is given to high-risk groups (elderly etc). Level 4 is much stronger - a national emergency!!
On 17 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Did someone from Meto read my previous comment here, they have just given out some advice on the news.
On 17 Jan 2013, ciscokid wrote:
Constantly listening to people here in Manchester saying that it isn't going to snow or snow much at all here and they keep harping on about The Met Office/BBC saying no snow is forecast for Friday/weekend as it shows over-cast clouds and they take this as gospel! My reaction is, please look at Piers Corbyn's work at WA, but they just switch off. My god, these 'sheeple' are really something!
On 17 Jan 2013, Jim wrote:
What's the likelihood of the Met Office raising their cold weather alert to Level 4 by 9am ??
On 17 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
It makes me sick sitting here watching the BBC news, considering what is about to hit the UK and they are not giving out a major news warning to advise people what is ahead and to prepare, yes they are warning us if the weather forecast but there should be a lot more coverage on this. I remember the summers of the nineties and early two thousands, they were constantly hammering us with global warming all day on BBC about use water wisely, no hoses, we are to blame for warming, we are all going to fry. A big freeze with a lot of snow is a bigger problem to deal with than a bit of NATURAL warming. MetO please get your act together and understand that money and a big computer will never beat experiance and knowledge, please do the right thing and give Piers Corbyn of Weather Action a wee phone call and admit you need help, for the sake of human kind.
On 17 Jan 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Hi Piers and all, weather from Monday the 14th until Thursday the 17th in Bathgate area of Scotland was average day temps, minus 3c and average night, early morning temps, minus 8c. We have had a rather dry spell with dustings of snow now and again, but no rain, anything that falls from the sky is snow, but very, very little if anything. Each morning a bit of mist, fog, cloud cover most of the time with the sun saying hello in the afternoons for a wee while. Let me say that met office temps on there forecasts need to be about 5c lower to tell us the true temps, why do they always add on about 5c, why always give out city temps, People do live outside citys you know, MO. Jealous of what those English, Welsh and maybe even Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland are about to get over night. Please load up all your Tipper Lorries and deliver some Snow to Scotland and we will give it back next year. Lol.
On 17 Jan 2013, simon cochrane wrote:
Piers, is it likely that ssw's such as this will happen more often in an Lia or is this more of a one off event? Thanks
On 17 Jan 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Something odd going on with MO warnings. Map still shows red patch for south wales but text accompanying map and snow symbol now shows red warning for the whole of the (non NI) orange warning area. Appears the red area is about to grow?
On 17 Jan 2013, Chris lee wrote:
Just to update you Piers, it has been snowing for the last 2 hours in north oxon and warwickshire border where I am. Snow is now getting heavier.
If this keeps up well have a few inches by early hours and well into 6-8 inches by tomorrow mid morning.
Met office failed miserably
On 17 Jan 2013, dr wrote:
o.k. This is not funny. The Met Office have said "Spokeswoman Alexa Jones said: “From about 3am the snow will start moving into South West and West Wales. Throughout the day that will move eastwards and most places will see snow by 3pm.”"
This is referring to Friday 18th Jan.
I am in the Thames Valley and it is now snowing and settling at 6pm on Thursday night. So the 12z run, done 6hrs ago, isn't quite correct.
I note that it has a 20% precipitation probability for where I am.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9808984/Britain-braced-for-40-hours-of-snow.html
This telegraph article contains the MO quote but if its right and we get 40 hrs of snow, my understanding is that even modest snowfall can be an inch an hour.
On 17 Jan 2013, willy wrote:
Astonishing the MO thinks it will be raining and 7c by Monday for the SE!!
On 17 Jan 2013, Barry wrote:
Met and others have been all over the place even today, appears south west of Glasgow will get no snow now....again! We've had no real winter at all in Ayrshire and its been incredibly mild! Up until this afternoon we had snow forecast according to me but now it seems the weather system is making a Doughnut shape up and over Glasgow and clipping Dumfries and Galloway and then hitting the east coast! So I'm in the middle of the doughnut and now appears now snow or does Piers comments regards widening the impact of the snow mean we shall see snow? Confused as ever!!
On 17 Jan 2013, Dean C wrote:
Great stuff Piers, All other forecasts leaning more and more over to your long range forecast and they are all changing drastically on a day to day basis.
For the doubling or trebling of snow I suspect that this means from original met forecasts because as more and more snow falls the met office will just keep on upping their forecast until they are 'correct' these events are more like a 'nowcast' than a forecast from the met office.
On 17 Jan 2013, Jam wrote:
cant believe it been checking the forecast al day now nottingham has been forecasted heavy snow to start within the next hour followed by a brief break until tommorow amazing all day ive been checking and now all of a sudden precipitation has come out of nowhere lolololol
On 17 Jan 2013, CarrieH wrote:
Ha! Cheers Russ....am keeping everything crossed for snow as this winter has been much too mild for my liking...I am also hoping that the weather takes a swing and comes further west, as seeing Piers' warning about 'expand regions', I am ever hopeful.
Hope all down south who do see the snow, all stay safe...and send us some!
On 17 Jan 2013, Jam wrote:
Met O and BBC are a utter joke, its actually unreal that they have supercomputers and government funding and still are unprepared for any severe weather, additional to that they never know until 2 days before which certainly isn't beneficial for the public. I live in the east midlands just outside of Nottingham standard met say "fifteen cm", but doubling and trebling sounds like a hell of a lot of snow. But if piers says to double and treble I'm doubling and trebling as he is very accurate. What do you think Piers do you still stand by the double and treble?
On 17 Jan 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
AS of 14.35 today, BBC has red snow warning for S/SE Wales, predicting 12 inches of snow, drifting, particularly on higher ground.
Amber warning across much of the south and midlands, including London, saying 5 - 10cm.
This is forecast to happen tomorrow, Friday 18th.
On 17 Jan 2013, Charlotte T wrote:
Starting to snow in Cheltenham. Also have noticed that the Met O have put Wales on Red alert . Let's see if that Widens as the day goes on ??????
On 17 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
Better watch the Met Office Piers. They are upping their warning to a red and predicting up to 30cm of snow across parts of Wales on Friday. They must have read your statement about doubling and tripling standard forecast predictions. They are setting you up as a straw man dude. I will not stop laughing for a flippin fortnight if it drops 60cm hehehe!
On 17 Jan 2013, Russ wrote:
CarrieH.... not to worry, Glynn from Norfolk was envious of the Scots only a week or two ago because they always see snow but Norfolk rarely does...... Well, flowers are opening, the roads are clear, birds are, ahem, thinking it's spring, it's the perfect 'calm before the storm' scenario...... Ron... maybe Scotland will get it later on, perhaps the next jet-stream loop will bring the desired snowman flesh. Talking of which, I notice on the rain radar the next huge jet-stream loopy thing is on it's way, bang on cue. It was suggested by, I think Fed_up, that Piers may be into goat sacrifices. Or perhaps he has a big black button under his desk and a secret HAARP array on his patio (wink!). His accuracy is certainly uncanny...
On 17 Jan 2013, Rohan Omard wrote:
Hahah! Piers you have the MO on the run with your wickedly accurate forecasts.
The MO have now widened their amber alert area, increased expected snow amounts. The next thing they will be telling us is to expect stronger winds everywhere as well. Thank God we have at least one meteorologist in the UK that knows what time it is.
Thanks to you proper preparations can be made for this major event!
Keep up the good work Piers and WA.
On 17 Jan 2013, dr wrote:
Metoffice have reissued their weather warnings for Friday 18th Jan. It is now 13:40 on Thursday 17th Jan. Looks like the 12z run shows much more severe weather than the 0z run. Area of Amber warning has dramatically increased and a new Red warning for the Cardiff area has been created. Red warning area expected to have 20-30cm of snow by MO. MO now talking about more than 5-10cm snow occurring quite widely, with some places getting 15cm. Public should prepare for disrupution.
Looks like MO are only realising how bad it will be 12 - 24hr ahead, as you have predicted Piers.
On 17 Jan 2013, Malcolm wrote:
Met Office finally waking up and have issued a RED warning for Wales.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358337660
Don't suppose that had anything to do with the news article that was posted on sky news that snow had already started falling in wales.
http://news.sky.com/story/1039291/weather-warning-blizzards-to-blanket-britain
On 17 Jan 2013, shaun faulkner wrote:
Hi Piers, I am massively impressed with your success. I kinda questioned December thinking could it have been a fluke, I didn't follow you much in December and I got sucked into following the models. But for your month ahead january forecast I have followed it right the way through, including keeping a close eye on the MO. They didn't even have a snow warning for friday a week ago, so they couldn't forecast this event with any confidence as close as 6 days away and only then they had yellow warning, then a day or two after they had a orange warning and finally the day before they release a red warning. They seriously took their time grasping this event and yet, you still say they will underestimate most aspects of this event. While you incredibly had this very well pegged a month ago.
On 17 Jan 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Steven Glossop: Yes the day to day variability of i(indeed within day) MO-Beeb charts showing the likely distribution of disruptive snow, is almost bizarre. The last time I looked this morning it appeared likely that eastern Eire, NI and Wales/ West Midlands were going to get the brunt of it whilst last nights danger areas in Cumbria and Galloway were now going to miss it as would much of Scotland!
On 17 Jan 2013, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Met Éireann picking up on a ever cold spell for next week! UK Met Office.....looks like the new computer is broken! Not a word!
On 17 Jan 2013, Paul wrote:
Looks like a very interesting spell of weather coming up. Here in Lowestoft the weather can be misleading. It can be 2 degrees on the coast in sleet when snow has been forecast especially when the air has had a long sea track and heavy snow in Norwich with temps freezing. A slight change in wind direction from a NNE to an E'ly or NW can turn it back to snow and a drop of several degrees. At night the temp make stick around 1 degree with snow then change to a westerly after midnight and drop to -7 degrees.
On 17 Jan 2013, CarrieH wrote:
had got a bit exicted at the prospect of snow in Glasgow/cental belt, but now looking less likely...as a new subscriber to the forecasts I will just have to study them in depth.
The MO still have a warning for strathclyde for snow but forecasting cold & sunny day.....they do not have a clue!
Fingers crossed for some of the white stuff here soon as am very envious of England at the mo :o)
On 17 Jan 2013, james h wrote:
just seen sky news forcast for ireland friday moring it says snow i hope it happens . temps hear not as cold as uk
On 17 Jan 2013, maria wrote:
I have been getting prepared since 17th december. SPOT ON Piers, I owe you a massive thank you for persisting in the face of adversity
On 17 Jan 2013, Fed_up wrote:
What is most worrying is the complete lack of warning/information from the BBC. How can a public service justify not providing an essential public service? There is a prospect of fatalities here.
On 17 Jan 2013, dr wrote:
Isobel Lang (standard Met) says "many parts of England and Wales could see around four to six inches of snow". So Piers, you reckon that we should double or triple that....
On 17 Jan 2013, dr wrote:
BBC / MO admit that there models are struggling: "So, forecasters are facing a huge challenge. Until the effects of this sudden stratospheric warming wear off, predictability beyond just a few days is unusually low." http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895
On 17 Jan 2013, steven glossop wrote:
hi piers, your jan forcast going very well. the weather from the met office seems to be changing this thursday morning again. it seems to reduce the chance of widespread heavy snow for parts of england especialy. whats your thoughts piers?
On 17 Jan 2013, Devon Dave wrote:
ROSEBUD - Hi there in Teignmouth - thanks for your info re the fax charts. We don't have a fax so cannot see what they are saying - temp here, 9.30am on the 17th is 4.6C. Will need to drop a bit to see snow later.
On 17 Jan 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Test.
On 17 Jan 2013, Kevster wrote:
Excellent. 30cm for the bulk of England should be enough to build some seriously good snowmen tomorrow!! I l look forward to it. Maybe time to organise a national best-dressed snowman competition?
On 17 Jan 2013, Chris Lee wrote:
Double the amount of snow forecast on tv?
Wow, that's serious amounts, 30cm widespread.
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