Comments from Piers
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This blog started 18 May with advent of new SLAT15a which deals with - in a more systematic way - look-back choices for starting point of best analogy weather periods fopr LongRange forecasts
PAST Articles transferred from Homepage...
CO2 hurricane con KO-ed
The wild alarmist claims that extreme hurricanes 2018 year are evidence of Man-Made CO2 Climate Change are straight lies...continued:
WeatherBlog Now (30-10-17 onwards) for your weather Obs, comms & Q's

OTHER LINKS - WeatherAction News Room by Craig  ClimateChange Conspiracy (of Nature)Theory; Charlatan Monitor, CLEXIT(ClimateAgreement EXIT):  -ClimateChange Conspiracy(-Of-Nature) theory Exposed - Ongoing + CLEXIT campaign includes 'Killer-Fact' Graphs - This +other links are in meetings reports.

Piers Corbyn challenges Climate charlatans in Imperial College Grantham Institute to give evidence for their #FakeScience "Cold-Is-Warm" claims See WANews18No04 Piers Corbyn challenges Imperial climate charlatans+warns more cold blasts <=CLICK for pdf of below
The hat-trick of cold and snow returns to Br+Ir & NW-Eu confirmed WeatherAction Long Range forecasts and our WeatherAction Red-Weather R4 periods meant  considerably more snow in UK and Europe than standard Meteo suggested up to 24 or 12hrs ahead of events.

Past Public meetings-events Reports...
Sat 18 August 2018 evening Hereford SunRise fest - PiersCorbyn+ MarkWindows +Sandi Adams "The-Bigger-Picture" as Glastonbury June 16. IT WAS BRILL
Sun 19 Aug Exeter, Levellers Festival Piers Corbyn speak/debate - Brill

Interview-debate - Is Climate Change Really Man-Made (Oct2 2018) Tony Gosling interview Piers Corbyn & Jo House (Uni Bristol)
Jo House lies about ice data and fails on evidence so calls in opinions of Governments!
Good places to check data:- @SteveSGoddard@NoTricksZone

  • Special (international) Natural Climate Cycle Conference Tue 22 Nov 2016- John Harvard Library convened by #WeatherAction and #TruthExcites was a fantastic success Piers Corbyn's acclaimed presentation which included CO2 warmism's violation of Laws of Physics and why Wild jet stream arctic warming events are evidence AGAINST the CO2 story not for it: powerpoint and follow-on powerpoint at AlternativeView 8 (further info below):

Solar-Weather-Action News
WeatherAction Major Red (R4) period Sep 19-23+-1d 2018 Great success
This period forecast under Piers Corbyn's Solar-Lunar Action Technique was excellently confirmed by extra/extreme weather storminess of Pacific Typhoons, Atlantic Tropical Storms and North Atlantic storms; an M6+(6.4) Earthquake; Major Geomagnetic Activity (K5 Sept 21-22 pic below); wild activity in the SolarWind including big increases in proton flux** see below and a (largely preceding) (becoming) Earth-Facing-Coronal-Hole (EFCH) (pic below). 
"This R4 was a text-book success, even though we havn't written the text-book", said Piers Corbyn. "Notably these events were NOT accompanied by extra sunspot activity - supporting our contention for less-visible (electromagnetic / Birkeland currents) sun-earth links associated with the Wild-Jet-Stream / Mini-Ice-Age circulation era the world is now in. Importantly, as **Gabe Rychert of @ClimateRealists pointed-out, the North Atlantic storminess was once again associated with big increases in proton flux.
"It beggars belief that all these sun-earth links are OBSERVED before our eyes yet the CO2 climate fraud industry still receive tax-payers money to propagate delusional lies that CO2 drives this storminess (predicted by solar activity) which hold-back the advance of science and CAUSE millions of deaths by Fuel Poverty from Climate policy energy price hikes every year".
Coronal Hole Sept19.
K5 Geomag activity Sep 21-22 and activity in Solar wind see twitter feed @Piers_Corbyn

 Past Events:-

  • PIERS was ON THE RICHIE ALLAN SHOW from about 6pm Oct 8th
  • Windows On The World Presents The Bigger Picture with Piers Corbyn, Mark Windows & Sandi Adams Sat Oct 6th 12:00pm. ARC, 27 Broad Street, Bristol, BS1 2HG. 
  • Sun Oct  7th, 17.30-19.30  - The studio Cafe, 46 Grafton rd, Camden, NW5 3DU - Exploring The Electric Universe - and what's wrong with standard meteorology and astrophysics Piers Corbyn report back from Porto Portugal International Climate Realists Science conference (7-8 Sept)
  • NEXT Electric Universe - New Academy for Accountable Science MEETING Sunday Nov 4th 17.30-19.30, The Studio Cafe, More on Electric Universe ideas with international skype link, the the CO2 theory fails Q+A, The 6 point challenge to UN-IPCC-BBC. 
"Both events and live streaming (Camden) were fantastic and I thank all who joined in" said Piers
Presentation links above
Piers Corbyn criticizes Prof Stephen Hawking for backing ClimateHoax
Piers Corbyn comment on Prof Stephen Hawking reported interview ITV Morning show 20 March  2017 by Piers Morgan; for consideration by Prof Hawking & his team:-
"Prof Hawking spoke alarmist delusional nonsense on so-called (ManMade) Climate Change and as a leading world scientist failed in his duty to support evidence-based scientific principles..For More Go:   WeatherBlog Now (30-10-17 onwards) for your weather Obs, comms & Q's

Comments submitted - 262 Add your comment

On 22 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:

Ron. Lol. Nee picknick but a breeze compared to late 80ís , 90ís. Out east. Let me know when UK is at a standstill and blanketed in snow and iíll eat my words with a chunk of humble pie !
On 22 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

Right on time as predicted (since 11th Jan) 1m of snow in next 24hrs in Pyrenees, max avalanche warning 5/5 tomorrow. Most of central France today will be out, snow from Lille to the mediterranean. Chaos around Paris, lorries forbidden N118. Today -24.4C in central Estonia. -7 in Strasbourg this morning. Baltic ice chart shows possibility of opening the ice roads in next 2 weeks. Neva now frozen, -17C in SPB Russia-going down to -26C next week, below -30C for Ural, so schools close. Weathermap shows the building of high pressure across central Europe for the next week so the snow will be followed by bitter cold nights. PROPER WINTER, needs urgent measures to get people living in the street into shelter. >Spare a thought for the most vulnerable everyone!< This is the first relatively "mild" wave. Next one is going to be a lot stronger, starting next week
On 21 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

-10 C and lower forecast for us this week by the warmest Beeb with polar maritime air reaching the isolated remote South East with snow fall. Less cold Thur/Friday then colder again from Sunday with the Jetstream plunging well below the UK, thereafter cold weather digging in. Rich and Glenn seem to have their own models apparently run by 'Trollcast Weather Services'
On 21 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub wrote:

Glen and Rich I wish you were both right, but alas with us entering a Super Grand Solar Minimum with all 4 magnetic areas on the sun going out of phase that has never happened before + the earth moving another million miles from the sun during NH winters by 2024 there will be very little grown in the UK by then only a few crops in the summer and by 2028 there will be a world wide famine with mass starvations.
On 21 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

Hello Glen It does look that way! The only way we seem to be able to get a cold snowy spell depends on a SSW and the alignment of several other factors including low solar output - even then we cant seem to muster more than a few flakes. This should have been a good year in theory. We did manage a cold week last winter, but these seem to be the exception. Bouts of cold weather was the norm (not every year to be fair but most) with snow on the ground twice as likely in the 60s, 70s 80s etc (in a northerner so remember well, down south now but parents till up North), Now everybody gets excited about wintry showers.Perhaps the warmer more energetic Atlantic is preventing colder outbreaks affecting the UK. No sign of LIA to date, Quite the opposite, perhaps postponed more Jam tomorrow. Still nothing significant showing in next 2 weeks and polar vortex reforming.
On 21 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Tony, could be many factors but SST anomalies are arguably a factor in the waves of energy and how they effect the weather over northern Europe. Not my forte but here is a link, I saved a while back.
On 21 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, clear until about 9.30 when cloud started moving in from the W, quite frosty with the ground staying hard for most of the day even though temps rose to a max of 3˚, still that at 9pm with a bit of light rain courtesy of the passing cold front, SWíly wind all day and feeling raw in the high humidity. Happy that I managed to see and photograph the lunar eclipse, always an amazing spectacle, though the red of the Ďblood mooní could only be seen with binoculars because it was still quite high in the sky.
On 21 Jan 2019, Glenn wrote:

So it looks like I was right after all, no snow this winter for southern Britain. The days where snow happens in southern Britain are now long gone. It turns out that we have been lied to about the LIA meaning snowy winters for southern Britain. When the warmer years of the 90s had snowier winters. The LIA theory is collapsing.
On 21 Jan 2019, Kim in Calais wrote:

Bitterlycold here for the past 2 weeks, but we all knew it would get here eventually, Its now just a question of how much? logs and coal stocked up as is the freezer and pantry.also double bubble wrap on the windows, We are grateful that it has held off this long and hope that it's short and sweet , mainly because of the extra fuel costs and the problems for the old and poor.Keep up with your vit C and D 3 folks.see you on the other side 😎
On 21 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

STAN: aye it must have been a summer breeze driving through Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Norway with that wee smattering of snow showers. Meteobeeb and GFS going for briefly less cold Thur/Friday then a cold weekend and for a colder period right through to early February. When reality does not fit the models, is it reality that got it wrong?
On 21 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:

Thanks for the reply David any ideas why it always seems to shift further east ?????....I know piers has had trouble with that situation .....
On 21 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:

Crawley Wesy sussex Fog Am. Now sun, and gentle warming.Spring is in the air.still waiting for the Arctic freeze and the snow forecast by others. The winter of 1947 started about now, wonder if? No i don,t thinkso. The National press is full the impending winter. Any offers?
On 21 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:

Winter all over by 21 January? My peak weekly gas use in 2018 came in the week ending 3 April!! Plenty of time for cold yet.Car thermometer read -7C this morning.
On 21 Jan 2019, Geoff wrote:

Seems that by the time any 'Beast From The East' arrives it will already be late July...and I'll have long slipped into my lime-green Mankini.
On 21 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Yeah well cloud n fog came along and then there was only hazy glimpses, was fun for a Monday morning :-) 0 deg feelin like -3 hard frost at 9.55 a.m
On 21 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

"this is one of the mildest winters i can recall in the last 23 years. No chance of a covering of snow in south east uk" Not only is this total nonsense, but I just love it when people are forced to eat their words. Tomorrow is our first day at -22C. (EST) People in France still remember February 2011. There will be usual ringing of hands and rubbish from the politicians when they find the UK completely at a standstill. hey but isn't that quaint? The only reason why Britain never could become a dictatorship is because of the totally bungling incompetence & gross inefficiency of the bureaucracy. For every bad thing there can be a ray of light! Haha!
On 21 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Watching the eclipse whilst all outside is frozen -2 /-3 atm, during penumbral was totally clear, a small bit of cloud since we entered partial not enough to ruin view just hope get to see max 🤓 Happy moon watching!
On 20 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:

I drive allover uk and northern europe and this is one of the mildest winters i can recall in the last 23 years. No chance of a covering of snow in south east uk never mind a foot
On 20 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Tony - didn't realise much had changed until just now ( been busy) Some might get a covering midweek but it was beyond that I was expecting more widespread wintry weather, next weekend and beyond. I'm a little old school and don't use the models as such, apart from one's To check jet stream movements and Fax charts. That tied in with what pros where saying about later this week, seemed to indicate the UK.was going to get very cold in general. However, it does seem to be shifting east again. Seems like high pressure has failed to materialise to our north/west. Still time for changes tho. Sun very quite and lunar events may shift things again.
On 20 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, clearing sky, though cloudy in the NW to begin with - Iím hoping that tomorrow morning that portion of the sky will be cloud free so that we can see the total lunar eclipse, the middle of which happens around 5am - a bit of rain around 11, max temp 2˚, raw Wíly wind, sunny morning but cloudy afternoon, 0˚ by 10pm.
On 20 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:

Once again the forecast switches from major winter snow and ice all uk to now 8 degrees next weekend .....what has changed ?does anyone really have any idea what is happening ...over to you experts David -Craig ....I'm bemused to it all
On 20 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

Finally got a proper forecast this morning -3 in Cambs, first one of 2018/19 winter. Snow risk seems to be dropping or being kicked even further down the road again (can we have a beast from the east in June?) Curious as to what has gone against the forecasts that have been floating around? Keep hoping for snow but as others have said, I'm a realist too. A comment was made the other week about the big picture. While heavy snow did hit part of the Alps,large portions are well below their usual depths. Suspect if spread out would be an average season to date, nothing out of ordinary other than the variance between those that have and those that have not. Despite the heavy snow (in the mountains) much of western Europe has from what I can see had a mildish winter to date.
On 19 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, feeling clammy & damp under a cloudy sky, the slightest of Wíly breeze, all our snow gone. We had to go up north today; as soon as we hit Huntly the sky became clear as a bell and the sun illuminated the snowy hills of the North, the roads were clear but snow depth was around 2-3 inches, we went as far as Knockando. Max temp 3˚ and as soon as we got to north of Aberdeen we were back in the murk, just a glimpse of the sun on the western horizon as the sun went down, 1˚ at 9pm. == Maria, I found the hairy snow shovel among the unwaxed lemons in the supermarket!
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Drizzly showers this morning seemed a little milder again, cooler tonight mostly clear 6 deg feeling like 4 at 7.12pm
On 19 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:

Thanks RON. the worm hasn,t turned yet. Still a chance of warmer weather heading our way. Gloom down here in the Southeast.. Waiting for that easterly. I am a snow lover, but a realist.
On 19 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

Hello Ron I hope I'm wrong as I'm a snow pig. However the fat lady hasn't sung yet, started warming up yes but as before seems to have developed a cough with models backing off very cold settling on cold - no East severe cold snow (sorry East). Not seeing much snow in forecast in East Anglia, East Mids - more of the Jam tomorrow still. Guess we will see but Id say we are still on course for average winter at best and no snow fest 1981 style. or 2010.
On 19 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID: Well done and commiserations to Glenn, Istvan and Rich.
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Quick question Paddy we were wondering how did you get a hairy snow shovel ? No wonder you have snow stress 🤣
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Gees No more milk talk the tiny one with 4.5 teeth will hear you 😅 Frosty mornings followed by sleety evenings and the only snow i'm seeing is fuzzy dots from 9 hrs sleep in 48 !-) Irish version of snow here this eve. cold rain! Occasional sleety showers 6 deg at 11pm feeling like 4. So will it snow here? the suspense is too much I couldn't sleep if I could, skies looking possibly clear for early Monday moon watching 🤓
On 18 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

-3˚C at 7.30, crackling snow underfoot and cloudy overhead with a cold Síly wind, temps rising fairly quickly to a max of 3˚, sun breaking through the clouds form time to time, rain by 8pm with the thin layer of winter wonderland melting away, 2˚ by 10pm and still raining. == David (Yorks): no, not dairy farmer but tree farmer (ret. as of this year as our son takes over) but Iím very proud to be part of coining new terms, as in ďmilking snow stressĒ, thatís up a level :-)
On 18 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Thanks Craig (takes a bow)🎯❄️❄️❄️
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

The models have been doing a real yoyo but do seem now to have some cohesion in an upcoming cold period which looks to last into the next couple of weeks at least, if not beyond. This is clearly seen in the MetO update copied below. You'll notice gone are the mild intrusions for the south as the cold air looks to entrench. As a consequence snow is creeping more & more into the forecasts, however the detail is quite vague as is expected - snow events could pop up at very short notice and R periods will need watching. The Atlantic looks very much to be our friend and copious snow somewhere is always possible as is a Jan 1881 type scenario. If this lasts into March we have the prospect of cold causing economic problems (Joe B has flagged this for a while) along with Brexit (or BiNO as Piers terms it on the main page). Those milking snow stress may feel otherwise quite soon. // First dusting of snow of the season yesterday. Settled& froze on the spot lasting until midday. Nice!
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019: The cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. There is a greater risk of seeing snow at lower levels as well as on the hills. Some drier and brighter periods are possible in the northwest, but in the south there is a chance of weather fronts approaching which bring a risk of rain, sleet and perhaps significant snow at times. Updated: 14:38 on Fri 18 Jan 2019 GMT
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019: The latter half of next week looks to stay cold or very cold, with frosts likely most nights. There may be cloud, rain and hill snow perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, but thereafter turning brighter with showers. These will feed in from eastern coasts, but are likely to bring sleet or snow for some. There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. It will stay cold until the end of January with spells of rain, sleet and snow at times. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely, with overnight frost.
On 18 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Paddy, are you actually a dairy farmer because you are milking this.
On 17 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, 1cm of snow, driving down to Dundee in brilliant sunshine in the morning, bone dry and no snow there, max temp 3˚, cloudier afternoon and still snowy on our little hill when we returned, icy now at 9.30pm with -1˚. Only the other day I found a live ladybird in the corn salad when washing it; thatís when I still had snow stress, as of today symptoms are somewhat relieved but not sufficient to stop me from feeding the birds and waxing my snow shovel :-) (Sorry, had to give it another outing, Iíll stop when I get banned)
On 17 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Glenn have you had any snow yet? when is the next R4/R5 period guys? That won't be giving away too much. Snow just keeps piling up in some regions of Europe.
On 17 Jan 2019, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:

Gerry your question re magnetic fields etc. I asked similar to this on earlier post (see 14th dec ) but no response as yetfrom Piers.
On 17 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:

QUESTION: Is the rapidly changing magnetic field related to solar minimum / LIA? The World Magnetic Model is updated every 5yrs but an emergency update is being prepared after only 3yrs. H/T spaceweather. Snow flurries and sleet this morning in v small amounts. Lots of reports on uksnow.
On 17 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

covering of snow here this morning which came from the north and not from the warm southwesterlies as predicted by Istvan Ilyes and whatever models he's using. Other standard models still going for various PM outbreaks with 'Atlantic slugs bumping into them with the possibilities of snow as that happens.
On 17 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:

Some models seeing much colder weather next week, so Rich you may get your easterlies and snow, GFS looks chilly.
On 16 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Paddy only just seen your comment lol. Honestly gone mad this last few days.
On 16 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

5˚C at 7.30, light rain until 9, followed by a sunny morning, we got quite warm putting up a fence, max temp 6˚, more cloud again in the afternoon, rain in the evening mixed in with sleet leaving a little white on the ground here and there, 0˚ at 10pm.
On 16 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

We have had rain wind sun rinse n repeat and now after a clear starry start this eve we have rain n a little windy and brrr cold 4 deg feels like colder. Met now talking snow in the picture, brrreally .. ps Paddy 😂
On 16 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

Might as well come to the UK East, pretty un-eventful this winter to date and next few weeks, despite dire warnings since end of December!
On 16 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Yes out east, some extremes further east than UK. I knew this winter would be the big one. USA too.
On 16 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

Don't say you weren't warned. Every single temperature index I use is veering off into extreme cold for next week. I am reading very heavy snow in the RHONE valley, temps down to -25C in the alps, a sudden drop of -30C in ONE day for Ural, a drop of -15C in one day for St Petersburg region, and very heavy snow this week in the Baltic. A short period of warming after it follows, then back DOWN again for the end of Jan. That can mean only one thing,- establishment of a Siberian airstream from next week over most of continental Europe. I'm out of here. Get off to somewhere else to stay in the warm, and where transport doesn't come to a standstill !
On 16 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:

Isyvan Ilyes West Sussex Its called anti-cyclonic gloom. We have had an armfull thankyou. Spring is fast approaching. Warmer temps on way. Constant southwesterlies, no sign of the opposite.
On 16 Jan 2019, Mark Hall wrote:

It is not the trend, or even the beginning of a trend, but it might be the end of the warmist beginners. Respect Craig. The main threat to the UK is agricultural. Late springs will wreak havoc if my two apple trees are anything to go by. Just five fruits harvested after the Beast in March. Sudden atmospheric compression events wrecking crops in the summers are in the mix too. Climate wise we are back to the late fifties. Low inflation, low commodity prices, low interest rates, low bond yields, low unemployment. Awaiting the catapult to a 1980 of highs in all of the above metrics. A creeping deterioration entirely related to a cooling climate.
On 15 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

The MetO did a livestream earlier today discussing the cold and the possibility of disruptive cold. Best bit for me is the total non mention of climate change when answering a question on extremes over the past year. Nice to get a break from politics === === the stuck blocked pattern continues to move and where it ends next could easily be where we stay for the rest of winter. Being on the edge of a warm ocean and a cold continent, there's plenty of ingredients over the next few weeks to blend a salve for any lingering snow stress - although there are no guarantees. // Paddy/Ron/CView - read a long whilst back an old Scottish saying [if there were still] buds/blooms(?) in January, lock up your granary. Trying to pin it down for when it originated (could be LIA based?) & exact wording. Sounds good advice! Any ideas?
On 15 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

Nothing really significant showing up on any models/forecasts, cold yet but not significantly through into Feb. Think East optimistic with talk of cold and snow for UK- looks like will stay in the East. Stick to my comment the other day in that at best Winter will end up average. Given well above average temps to date that might be optimistic . Snow drops out and flower heads of Narcissi fully formed, garden pretty firm in Cambridgeshire. Next summer could be interesting if on dry side again, early hose pipe bans.
On 15 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

7˚C at 7.30, seesaw again to very mild and cloudy with a SWíly wind which got a bit stronger in the afternoon, max temp 9˚, a couple of sunny hours in the afternoon, 6˚ at 9.30pm. David (Yorkshire), feeling compelled to put out bird seed could be a sign of early onset snow stress :-) (Not sure how long I can milk this one)
On 15 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Half way through month and now it's turning colder. Definitely a chill in the air tonight. Can't keep up with putting bird seed out last few days, is it a sign?
On 15 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

A continuation of drizzly cloudy mirky 7 deg at 12.03 a.m ( When you start typing and it all comes out in Capitals and then you change it back to lower case and all seems tranquil again!-) Poss. Another symptom of snow stress? NO point asking Paddy hes all chill right now, as usual 😁 Well the headlines are mentioning words like Possibility Heavy Snow & Disruption here.. Worse headlines for England so Out East is gonna send you all a new hat :)
On 14 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, about a millimetre of snow on the car, should I worry (inverse snow stress)? Quite a sunny morning with a light Wíly wind, more cloud in the afternoon, temp rising to 3˚ and still that at 10pm. Our snowdrops are out and the daffodil leaves are 4Ē out of the ground.
On 14 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

Valentina Zharkova seems like yet another smart Ukrainian girl. Russian and Ukrainians are extremely strong in applied mathematics. Russians and Ukrainians have added vast amounts to scientific knowledge over a long period, as well as some highly unorthodox ideas. (Late spring frosts are becoming quite common.) You should mention in the same time:- Elena Popova Lomonosov Moscow State University Resonance & wave theory in solar activity. I wonder what Dr. Leif Svalgaard thinks? There is a lot of interesting scientic debate about a grand solar minimum over the next 5-10 years. More than 60% of 2018 was without sun spots. Well worth a whirl!
On 14 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub wrote:

Still no comments from Piers on Valentina Zharkova video that he was present at. What are your thoughts on her theory? Very interesting Feb forecast if it happens could very chaotic
On 14 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

Thanks P C. You islanders had better enjoy it. Bitter cold over the UK to come as the Scandinavian high builds, last week of Jan. Large snow falls in East of England. Massive snowfall yet again to come over France and the whole of central Europe to add to the already large falls in Germany & Austria of the last few days. That will add to Vosges & Jura which were shut until last weekend. Then this weekend coming will come wave No2 of heavy snow in the northern French alps,- already in 4/5 avalanche warning. Next wave will finally give the Italian side proper snow. Wind turns to north again in high altitude alps to give 2-3,beautiful crystal clear days of perfect powder snow conditions. Better get the snow tyres ready & the big coats & hats out. It will be fun!
On 14 Jan 2019, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:

GREAT COMMS CRAIG! Another way of meteorological monitoring (now we have computers) would be a MovingAverageSeason ie moving 91day average temp and use the coldest of that (mid date) as defining "Mid-Winter" for that year. This would bring out truer winter measures. Similarly for summer. +=+=+=+=+ ALL IMPORTANT DON'T LOSE OUT HURRY WE NOW HAVE A NEW 20-50d 8 periods Feb forecast loaded (in BI 75d, 100d, AllWinter, EuEnergy and TheWholeLOT) =>=> =>=> FOR FIRST 20 BUYERS WE HAVE 50-75%OFF A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST SUBS <= =>GO for details and BUY NOW - usual full forecast credits for any overlaps with existing subscriptions <=<=<= DO IT NOW Pass-it-on! Thank you
On 14 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:

Model watching more than five days out is entertaining, but often useless. The general consensus is cold from the end of the week, so by next week end it may become a bit clearer.This winter here in South Hertfordshire has been very uneventful, with only a few frosts and very dry.
On 13 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

10˚C at 7.30, mild and quite windy from the W, gradually turning into the NW and consequently temps shifted downward during a mostly sunny day to 3˚ at 10pm when it had also started raining lightly.
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Some mobility since yesterday and it feels fresher as a result. Cold still a few days away but building and a solid signal from the auto generated weather forecast on the Beeb site which yes needs a pinch (giant sized) of salt but has been persisting. *Average means nothing. See Feb 09 as a perfect example. An average month with temps at both extremes. May 2012 was another average month again with both sets of extremes. Some of the more famous winters had a month or so of cold (which don't forget doesn't decide to fall just into the arbitrary 28-31 day period nor decide to cut off once the metreological astronomical date is reached) yet the rest was warm or average making the DJF period undistinguished. Jan - Apr 2013 being a good example of cold that didn't follow the 'season'. We shall see how this winter has gone come April. Looking beyond there I wonder if the summer will feature blocking - like last year (repeating 75-76) or like 07-08 washout? All about where the blocks fall
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

The late 17thC had cold and warmth. We see this now with long jetstream meanders. This winter, despite the early pokes, has been a slow burner but appears to be coming together. You can see it building out east and it's slowly inching towards us. There appears no lock out on the horizon - yet - but that doesn't mean it won't be cold. 3-4 weeks of solid cold are rare in most of the BI. I said a while back its been a while (09) for a proper cold Feb & we could be there this year which is perfect timing in terms of getting real cold (coldest usually between mid Jan-mid Feb per CET). Snow? 1m in London? Never say never as it only takes a confluence of events to do it...and if we are having mild pushes a channel low can easily dump in the sweet spot. Look at Mar last year that pushed up from France. Still 66 days until equinox. "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning"
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Following on from what Out East said it is apparent that the seasonal shift has been for 'winter' to be moving into the solstice to equinox period, however worth recalling that 09-11 were early + throw in the snow of late Oct 08 which was for some places in the Sth the earliest settling snown since the 1880s. That period (late 00s) also had some early spring warmth (e.g. Late Feb 09 following the 'wake up cold' of early that month ended average*). I'm sure it will to & fro. The slug was symptomatic of this - a blocking high that refused to budge & despite the promise gave a measly 4 frosts since Xmas eve as drew in moisture from the Atlantic due to its position. A few more clear skies & it would have made a big diff from the grey muck. Last week I looked up & was surprised to see stars it's been that bad. All part of MIA conditions some will bring extremes on either side (Dec 10 2nd coldest in record by just 0.1C then Dec 15 record warmth) ...
On 13 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID: how right you are about UK parochialism on the weather/climate scenario. It's more than just what people see outside their windows. RICH: standard models are backing off on intensity of the PM outbreaks and increasing the impact of intervening 'warm slugs', so coldish, but not severe and variable--standard Britwinter stuff indeed. OUT_East and Sandy Hamer: Aye late and lasting into spring might very well be the case, but we've had this before eg Feb-April 1986 and to some extent 1985 too ( hill snow in June in Scotland)
On 13 Jan 2019, east_side wrote:

"Eastside, a foot of snow in London ? Iíd take a bet with you that doesnít happen" Maybe I take you up on the bet. Here this morning first real decent snow of the season. 40cm overnight, then mon-tues clear & very cold. Forecast -22 on the 24th. This is the first outbreak. The next one will be massive EU wide. At the same time, I reckon a 1m-2m on the pyrenees next weekend which is currently snowless. Remember 2010? The entire UK was showing snow cover up to 1m in many parts of the north of England, & the SSW has caused a huge outbreak of cold weather in the USA. Next will be Europe. Seasons are often 6 weeks out of kilter now. Don't be suprised if the sort of snow we used to have in December ends up end Jan-Mid Feb, with late frosts until MAY. People have short memories.
On 13 Jan 2019, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:

Pressure tumbling quickly the last 36 hours, hence the strong wind. Iíll miss the quiet conditions of late as irs allowed me some fine weather for outside work(not cold and staying dry) Only 1.6mm rain in 3 weeks Does this bode well for the summer coming up?, whatís the potential for drought particularly the SE given last years fine summer and will the forecast cold blocking add to lack of rain? (if it comes to fruition).Paddy , catkins are out on some trees round here too ,daffodils growing strong also .
On 13 Jan 2019, sanders hamer wrote:

10 weeks to go till winter ends?.first 6 weeks of winter18/19 looking like a very damp wet dry above average winter so fare still early days. last winter was a lot dryer and colder and snowier. very much like winter 2012 and 2013. still things might turn around come february or march like last february march winter 2018 .who knows there might be a cold spring on the cards like spring 2013 . . europe looks very cold at the moment looking at the gfs charts so does russia to.might be a bigger turn around comeing from russia late winter.beast from here in preston lancashire gusty winds top temp 10 degrees rain on and of all day tomorrow temp 10 degrees rain.
On 13 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

I wish people would not get obsessed with the UK, when considering if LIA conditions are happening or not.There is a bigger picture.
On 12 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, the beginning of another mild and mostly cloudy day with an occasionally gusty Wíly wind, temps climbing slowly all day to reach 10˚ by 10pm. Itís been so warm of late that hazel catkins have started opening, thatís a bit early I would say. Now I need to go lie down, that snow stress is really getting to me, Maria :-)
On 12 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

All forecasts suggesting colder spell (no chance of foot of snow in London or SE I agree) or memorably cold, just typical British winter cold (you expect some cold weather - or at least you used to).Likely some snow, mostly Scotland/NW England and a few flakes for London to excite headline writers. Ill make a prediction- winter will end up average overall (its been well above so will need to be cold to achieve this), probably not one to back up mini ice age view, along with most winters last 30 years in UK . Shame as Id rather have snow than grey damp merk any day!
On 12 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

standard models are in general agreement about a colder period from late next week on, but vary from each other and within each other in their predictions of the severity and duration of PM outbreaks, though none are going for an 'east-beast' scenario.
On 12 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:

Eastside, a foot of snow in London ? Iíd take a bet with you that doesnít happen
On 12 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Brr noticeably parky this morning def. tad early for shorts so even though they said mild till next week my legs can verify otherwise. Some nice sunny spells for a time but mostly cloudy a little windy wnw and 9 deg feeling like 4 at 11.42 a.m Last week said cold and snow will not hit Ireland only UK now they say today in the papers Met say "SSW to hit Ireland by the end of Jan. But highly uncertain if Ireland will see snowfall."
On 11 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Hahaha snow stress is it a thing? It should be the snow tension is just so funny right now 🤣 chilly this morning 6 deg at 9 a.m shorts on and 10 deg this eve some sunny spells this morning drizzle this aft. but not too much to put off a run.. Cold weather should follow now the shorts are out 😎
On 11 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, cloudy for most of the day, light NWíly breeze gradually swinging into the SW, max temp 8˚, great Ďopení weather to do lots of winter work in but I wonít complain when the snow cometh, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 11 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID( Yorkshire) got my points in a a oner. Both BBC and STV main evening forecasts tonight going for colder spell from mid week. Could be quite a bit of snow as warmer 'mini-slugs' periodically bump into PM of varying intensity.
On 11 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

If people are whinging about lack of snow in the UK, they better stop fairly soon. Gatwick & Heathrow can be stopped by stuff as simple as a drone. Let's just see how they manage with a foot of snow shall we? Looks like a nice heavy snowfaill gonna drop on French pyrenees too. So far this winter has been snowless! I'm not sure they are quite prepared for the shock yet!
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Hi David Fair points made, and yes protracted aftermath could be spot on in line with the protracted down welling. Re this winter being a biggy.....I have a smal theory inasmuch that I too thought we could get it...but on the solarcycle theory, we are equivalent to 07/08 but minima is on basis that the last 2 greats were 09/10 and 10/11....maybe winter 20/21 will be the Ďspecial oneí that plunges deeper into LIA
On 11 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub & winter wrote:

Interesting to read all the comments below, but what most of you seem to forget or don't know is the sun is entering a Super Grand Solar Minimum that has never been seen before in modern times. And wether or not it gets very cold this winter is immaterial eventually it will get so cold here that food and crops will stop growing, then look out!
On 11 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Fred, I don't have piers forecasts to compare but yes you are right my cold spell slipped East. I did also state something more substantial/sustained further down the line. Which I know might seem ambiguous, however I meant end of January. I have touted this winter for a long time and in some parts of Europe they are getting hammered and it is only 11th of January. I would expect the jet stream to move South shortly and no two SSW are the same, however it does look like the reversal of winds will be protracted in the tropesphere. So in regards to February brutal for parts of Europe would be my call but as Piers alludes to and as always, somewhere will get Mild extremes.
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

David, the nothing until Spring was just a flip comment. I quantified with follow up to say most January.....Feb is way beyond and even challenging for Piers. You have to admit though things are burning a lot slower than anticipated by most...including yourself. Your northerly was a fair assumption....but it is too Far East and E Europe got hit.....correct? Going forward like I say I can confirm models (great news for cold lover) are falling into line with Piers POV...thanks for responding appreciated update and reassuring too.
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

David, not inconsistent the Ďuntil Springí was a flip remark....I quantified by saying rest/most of January in a follow up post. I think thatís realistic at this stage unless you know differently? Having got the full winter LRF Iíll hold on judgement re that.....donít think that widespread High Latitude Blocking is guaranteed from this SSW or indeed that the U.K. will benefit from it re cold weather. Next 2 weeks will determine where we head ....letís hope they continue to mimick more and more Piersí LRF.
On 11 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Fred I think there is some confusion here. You said there is no real winter until March? You seem very inconsistent with your thoughts. Up and down like a tarts knickers. I think that's the point Ron was making when comparing you to a weather model.
On 11 Jan 2019, Willo wrote:

No rain for three weeks now here in the Southeast. This constant Atlantic high is starting to get frustrating - Just our luck the jet stream decides to get stuck with the most drab weather over us. If it were snow....
On 10 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Letís have some evidence Ron....what cold in March?
On 10 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

8˚C at 7.30, cloudy start with a NWíly breeze but brightening up every now and then, max temp 9˚, mostly dry with only a few drops of rain, really appreciate this dry weather; we had a tree come down in Mondayís gale in a usually wet place but underneath the uplifted root it was completely dry, havenít seen that for a while there. 7˚ at 9.30pm.
On 10 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

FRED, I am beginning t think your are getting as fickle as GFS!
On 10 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Though there was nothing of note until Spring Fred?
On 10 Jan 2019, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:

FRED, ALL, THANKS FOR COMMS. Yes I to all if you don't yet subscribe DO IT NOW! There's exciting weather coming BI Eu Usa; you need to prepare for this year like no other +WE'VE up to ***67%OFF*** deals NOW <=<= GoGoGo. +=+=+ On The Sudden Stratospheric Warming SSW. YES as I have said these lead to extra wild swings in the JetStream IF they transmit downwards. This one has transmitted downwards as you see in graphs homepage LHS bottom for 5mb+50mb height levels. NB these graphs end Dec31. I presume non-update is due to the Usa govt shut-down; a matter brought about by the same politicians who promote the fraud of Man-Made Global-Warming {Can we too have a say on ending the shut-down?!}. THIS extra wild Jet Stream will lead we confidently expect to the Wild cold blasts BI Eu +Usa we predicted for sooner or later in Jan. BUY NOW FOR DETAILS! Confidence of detail + timing has gone up. Note there will be warmer swings in some other parts N Hemisphere. Thanks
On 10 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Ron Iím not so hard on Piers, indeed I said if you havenít got his forecast then get it to compare. Currently (if this gets posted) his synoptic set up is very close, but reality is itís a tad east compared to what Piers shows. However, things have corrected West this month compared to Dec as Piers said .....but not enough yet. However, great news afoot, the models are now correcting further west again and I will say that the forecast is increasing in accuracy by day going forward. On that basis, at least get the 30day forecast folks. What I would like is some I put from Piers on his thoughts of this very big SSW event that occurred officially on 2/1/19 and what (if any) implications this has on his winter LRF going forward into Feb. Best Regards
On 09 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Well one thing for sure is its too quiet 2nd there is this mexican wave of up an down in contrasting temp daily over the last week, looking at what is going on around the world not just locally I wouldn't rule out a sudden change to hello winter and we have Lunar stuff too by the tiny ones first birthday so I think something cold is brewing towards end of mth maybe more likely end first week of Feb and thats just a hunch, plus we were forecast dry an settled and we've had cloudy n drizzly too so met must be struggling a tiny bit usually means weather around the corner! Mostly cloudy 8 deg at 10.27pm
On 09 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy but turning into a fairly sunny day with no rain, pretty still so I was watching the smoke rising straight up out of the chimney, doesnít happen often here, max temp 3˚, still that at 9.30pm.
On 09 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:

Ron I don't think people are hard on piers .....he has a near impossible task with the way the streams sun behaves lately. ...for me I gave up paying due to them being only around 25%accuracy ....I don't understand all the workings of the weatther and rely on people like piers David yerself etc for your input but let's be honest no one seems to know wat the he'll is gonna happen this winter ......and to be fair wen yer paying money out u need a lot more accuracy ....just an opinion not a knock on anyone
On 09 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID: there may be data for the 1962/3, 1981/2 1995 and 2010/11 winters that may help in respect of SSW. FRED: the ECM and GFS models seem to be only going for various directions of PM hitting UK. Regarding the latter it switched in just 8 hrs or so from a very direct and severe PM hitting us on the 24th to a much more benign westerly one. So why so hard on Piers at weeks ahead?
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Does anyone have Piersí winter forecast? If so please look at the models and his forecast and compare. Very interesting going forward and compare with seasonal models responding to the SSW.
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Just because the UK has not had it bad yet, look elsewhere,. Modern day Records for temps and snow could go this winter in parts of Europe. No coincidence that this follows from some very low solar output over the last year. Did 1947 get triggered by an SSw around end of December 1946 I wonder? Can't find any records that far back but I suspect it did.
On 08 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

5˚C at 7.30, light showers but then a sunny morning, still with a good NWíly wind, temp remaining at the same level all day, a few showers in the afternoon and evening, 2˚ at 9pm
On 08 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

FRED: Piers does not make the weather or climate, he only postulates it and at a much longer distance than the highly variable standard models. Talking about which, GFS is currently predicting a severe PM outbreak on 24th January and several lesser ones from around mid month. Please remember that the 1947 severe winter did not start until the 20th January.
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

David Interesting to hear Piersí call for Feb and if heís revising it. I donít think his winter forecast factored in a SSW, or if it did then he doesnít anticipate it to be a HLB lock out
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Fred you have also written February off? With such an event in the srat it's a bold call. I expect a big freeze in western Europe starting this Month.
On 08 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

An interesting 'it might just be coincidence' observation. 15th July 1981, snowfall down to below 1000m in Salzburgerland Austria. First week of November 1981, one metre of snowfall down to the valleys in the same area. Last week of August 2018: snowfall in southern Germany and Austria down to around 1000m. Around 10th December 2018, 50-100cm of snow in Salzburgerland, Austria. So two extreme summer snowfall events are both followed about 15 weeks later by a major early winter snowfall. 1981/2 was a long hard winter in northern Austria. Right now, 2018/19 is shaping up as an epically snowy one. Coincidence or a possible predictive tool to be monitored in future? Key question: was there a snow event at the end of October 1998? (huge snow event started mid February 1999)
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

David I have Piers forecast and the type of set up he foresees is not High Latitude Blocking, and everything is getting pushed further back and eastward adjusted. Itís why my confidence is high that Jan will be a blow out
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Fred, we have a displacement becoming a split up above still working it's way down. This will cause chaos in the atmosphere. Too early to write of winter. Biiter air could hit is from north or east yet. Just checked date it is 08th of Jan.
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

David, no Iím being realistic, well certainly wipe out most of January...itís all getting pushed east. Just watch whatís happening.
On 07 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

First day back to school and college and after a quiet Xmas weather wise it was strange and nice to hear a bit of wind outside this morning, all quiet again before lunch but some drizzly showers continued on n off. Mostly cloudy and 6 deg at 11.43pm The crows are back hanging about so should get colder soon, though it has been nice to get stuff done, interesting and good either way.
On 07 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

8˚C at 7.30, drizzle but not too much wind yet, it only got going by 9am from a SWíly direction, slowly changing into the NW and we had some significant gusts from about 3 - 5pm, by which time any residual mildness had gone, max temp 9˚ in the forenoon. A mostly brilliant sunny day after the morningís rain had cleared, a few light showers in the evening but the wind is slightly less wild now at 9pm, 6˚.
On 07 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Fred you sound like Glenn. Your slug has eaten away, at your judgement.
On 07 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Hi David Thatís the point....itís too Far East yet again. Donít expect any real winter this year...until Spring.
On 07 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Update on Austrian/German snow: a further 100cm is expected on mountains between Tuesday evening and Sunday, leading Rudi Mair, head of Tirolean avalanche warning service, to realise he may be issuing a 5/5 risk level, which equates to evacuating buildings, infrastructure damage and even valleys being closed off. Too early to say, in his words, but definitely possible. The highest reported seven day snowfall since 31/12 is in Tauplitz, Steiermark, with 300cm new snow. Just imagine London with that amount of snow. Hysterical wailing by snowflakes!! I do hope the idiotic MPs at Westminster take a read of (if any of them understand German) to see what pictures they should present to their global warming gurus.....
On 07 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Fred you will make your mind up. I get the impression you follow the models day to day. Don't bother wasting your time with that. Yes it's not panning out as expected but we are on the 7th of January. Things can and will change quickly over the next couple of weeks for better or worse. I expected a northerly this week but other than a watered down version it ain't going to happenen. Plenty of winter left to run.
On 07 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Piers Can we have a comment from you. What is it with the set up itís all going to be too Far East again. Parts of Europe getting unprecedented snow, UK to remain mild for the foreseeable with HP to SW too much of an influence. What has caused this setup and what is causing January to be off target again in the U.K.with this Ďslugí HP refusing to budge.? This is one of the worst winters in memory, and if this is LIA circulation....I would rather the sun ramped up.
On 07 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:

People posting in the UK have to start to get the big picture. The UK is a little damp island on the edge of a lot of water. Suprisingly for such a small place it does have quite diverse weather comparing say Dover to Shetland or Orkney. It's hardly suprising bearing in mind there's quite a big difference from the flat south of England to 59 deg north where Aurora Borealis is a more or less daily feature! The USA is in for a nice taste of heavy precipitation, inc loads of snow. Weather is in for a quite sudden change in Europe within the next 4-5 days & then sharp cold around the 18-20th. In the Baltic it's dropping to close to -20C this week.The sea is just starting to freeze,- a little later than usual but here we have the 4-6 week shift in the seasons showing again. Whenever I see the Baltic sea start to freeze, the ice roads maybe to form in Feb, don't worry, a nice anticyclone over Scandinavia, formation of the easterly air flow, & EUROPE will freeze like in DEC-JA
On 06 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, overcast all day with a barely perceptible NWíly breeze and feeling humid, max temp 7˚, down to 4˚ by 9.30pm. Iím always watching the growing day length at this time of year, in the evening we are now about 20 minutes ahead since the solstice, particularly noticeable on cloudy days, but - as the day lengthens the cold strengthens, which is what I like to wheel out every year.
On 06 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:

I'm not Glen either, but I'm sure I remember the likes of Joe Bastardi telling everyone that winters from 2013 onwards would be severe (3-4 days of cold weather doth not make a severe winter) in the UK/NW Europe, seems to be quite the opposite the last few years, this year looks no different currently, nothing next week, weve had about 4-5 frosts this autumn winter, none lower than 0 deg near Newmarket. Keep hoping for cold!
On 06 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

GEOFF: the severe winter of 1947 did not get going until the 21st January and from them to mid March it was not exactly 'spring'
On 06 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

All swings and roundabouts: a prolonged Nordstau is bringing the heaviest sustained burst of snow for the Northern Austrian Alps for around 20 years, with 150cm in three days reported in several locations and more to come through this week. Whether it will match February 1999, who knows. Because of the location of the high pressure, much of Switzerland has missed out. I saw a similar event mid January 1983, although rain in the valleys mid event meant the two metre snow depths were limited to the mountains above 1600m.
On 06 Jan 2019, Geoff wrote:

By the time winter 2018/19 gets it's Big Pants will already be spring! I can quite see why there was no cold warning from Piers in Nov / Dec. (P.S I'm not Glenn in disguise).
On 06 Jan 2019, Roy wrote:

I hope there is another Beauty from the East like there was last year. Love really cold weather.
On 05 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, overcast for much of the day bar a few sunny spots in the afternoon, contrary to MOís prediction of a sunny day, max temp 4˚ with a light Wíly breeze, 0˚ by 9pm with frost on the car roof. We have a yellow wind warning for Monday midday.
On 05 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Piers Your forecast is clearly not linked to the its happened and longlasting and sliw there a change to February? Or is this SSW non specific for NW Europe? Fred
On 05 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

standard models show 'slug' holding on until Monday when a brief interlude of PM air displacing it, then 'slug' rebuilding until 12th/13th and then it begins to get 'winter interesting' after that.
On 04 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

1˚C at 7.30 but the ground remained frozen all day, light NWíly breeze and much sunnier than MO had predicted, max temp 3˚, clear sky by evening and 0˚ by 8.30pm. Another sunny day in store for us tomorrow.
On 04 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

The ĎSlugí looks like being jostled big time soon.....its been a while but we could have standby for lift off next week onwards, with a long main course mid Jan onwards. Models are I have say are now seeing Piersí view. If it continues on course......get the forecast. I now see why he stated that things look like being much more in line for Jan...... Fred
On 03 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

New Years Day was promising to start some nice sunshine and blue sky fresh but not too cold, a good day to get out walking with the crew, cloud crept in and a few short moments of v.light drizzle from time to time and milder temp by afternoon. Last 2 days mostly cloudy with glimpses of clear sky on occassion clearing more so by cooler nights, 3 deg. At 10pm
On 03 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

-4˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, light NWíly breeze, beautiful sunshine all day, max temp 0˚, still that at 9pm. Long may it continue, but apparently it wonít.
On 03 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Ron with the SSW and subsequent energy displacements that high will either move North/west or east in my opinion. In the next 10 Days. Maybe a little too late for my 4th to 10th forecast but we shall see.
On 03 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

warmists are already attributing the PV split and any forthcoming colder weather in Europe/UK to global warming. FRED: I share your doubts about the 'SLUG' being shifted. first inside window ice this winter, yesterday.
On 02 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy to begin with but almost no wind apart from a gentle NWíly breeze, fairly sunny after that for the whole day, max temp 3˚ but by late afternoon we already had -1˚ and by 10pm it was -3˚. Things have dried up nicely and it is a real bonus to have a bit of cold for a change.
On 02 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:

Piers Why has confidence increased re things coming more in line in January and not being too far E / NE? Also with a SSW folk are anticipating widespread High Latitude donít seem to, more a PV displacement? Iím sceptical of this slug being dislodged. Fred
On 02 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:

NEW FOREST: Aye GFS though suggesting the Fred's Slug will be quite resilient is now showing some changes not apparent in yesterday's run.
On 02 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:

Big Joe usually on the money with this kind of thing, lets wait and see.
On 02 Jan 2019, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:

Now thatís high pressure2019! 1043mb here today. Cold as well at -1.9c this morning (0600). Promises of a cracking winters day for getting out. Pity Iím back at work🙁.
On 01 Jan 2019, NewForest wrote:

Looks like the SSW is making its move, forecast models picking up on significant changes over the coming weeks to something a bit more winter like! Joe Bastardi made an interesting tweet, Jan 15th to end of Feb, mentions extreme cold events for UK (and nw Europe & US). Still feeling mildish on South Cost tonight, tomorrow forecast to have a different feel.
On 01 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

4˚C at 7.30, NWíly wind and a little rain early on, dry after that though mostly cloudy. The temperature did not shift all day except to go down to 2˚ by 9pm, very different feel today in the drying wind smelling of winter.
On 01 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Happy new year all. I would expect some big swings in weather for northern hemisphere in next 10 - 14 Days. #Ssw #slugbait
On 31 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

A real borefest weather wise for the past few days with only a brief frost xmas eve gone by midnight and the odd bit of mist since. The next few days offers more interest with frost and fog before the slug high moves again. Beyond that though signs now appearing of some interest and that's as the ssw effects filters down. 2018 was a good year weatherwise although the summer was a bit much. The alarmists did shriek an awful lot this year but then again were over the target so expect flak. The last UN shindig came to nothing. Trump is still a thorn, the French people have said non and Brazil has joined the fray. Climate Realism has landed on the beaches. Just wait until the accounting starts. Where has all that money gone? Seriously what has the vast money spent gone towards? No wonder the shreik do hard. Hope to add some more ssw musings soon. Lots to look forward to in 2019. Happy New Year all 🎉😀
On 31 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Ron I know right have thought the same point many times and Paddy that made me laugh out loud 😁 feel a nip in the air outside tonight in a tshirt compared to previous nights 8 deg with a dew point of 6 at 11.18pm A fab end to a fab year despite no snow..yet 😋 Happy New Year all of ye 😎
On 31 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

4˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but brightening up soon enough to give us a splendid sunny day with amazing temps, max was 12˚ and still is at 10pm, which is a bit unusual for Hogmanay but there you go, thatís all these cow farts emanating from Al Gorblimeyís trouser leg. Happy New Year All!
On 31 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

noticed that our local Scottish Television forecaster was mentioning that the recent SSW might affect our weather in the near future. We never seemed to hear much about these and the jet stream in the pre -Piers era.
On 31 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

STEPHEN PARKER: will be interesting to see if SSW knocks our 'Fred's Slug' over the UK or intensifies the difference between western and eastern Europe.
On 31 Dec 2018, stephen parker wrote:

SSW event strengthening as we speak, should make second half of Jan early Feb interesting.
On 30 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

A continuation of the same here as last post also a few glimpses of sun and sky on the odd occasion though more cloudy than not. High humidity and 8 deg with the chance of showers in a bit.
On 30 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

4˚C at 7.30, still and clear after some overnight rain, followed by a fairly sunny day with a max temp of 8˚ and a light SWíly breeze, still 7˚ by 9.30pm. == Bill S, the grass here is also amazingly green for the turn of the year, you can see the individual blades shining in the sunlight, could easily get the mower out for a cut! Not much feed value in that, of course, but the sheep in the next door neighbourís field seem to be enjoying it.
On 30 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:

Worrying times in the US after just a KP5 stream from a recurring coronal hole blew up several major transformers, due to our weakening magnetosphere. Just what would happen to us when a large X class flare hits doesn't bare thinking about.
On 30 Dec 2018, Harry Williams wrote:

December's been a strange month - Very mild at the start of the month (15C on the 2nd) but within two weeks temperatures plummeted to 1C on the 15th with small snow squalls in East Anglia followed by freezing rain/sleet in northern Eng and heavy snow in Scotland. Temperatures since then became milder again, but locally here in Kent we had our coldest Christmas Day since 2010 (4C). December's have pretty much followed the same pattern since 2011. Typically mild with a few intermittent cold snaps.
On 30 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:

Further to my observation of about a week ago,we seem to be getting the classic recent EU winter scenario building up again.(NO SNOW in Jura or Vosges!) Ie, the seasons are desyncronised, pushing them to the side =later,of their more normal patterns by up to 6 weeks*. We had:- A sudden cold patch in oct followed by an unusually warm nov > unusually warm dec, followed by what seems to be a slow descent into colder winter weather finally in mid jan. There is now dry anticyclonic weather over the alps, so snow fall is quite desperately needed. We can see a change occuring somewhere around 6th Jan. As some more proof of the conditions above*, the historic wine growing region of Orleans France, has had to cope with so many late frosts & cold springs, many of the wine makers have had to close for good. Bordeaux has also had late frosts & hail. Meanwhile in the Baltic states this year we have an usually warm start to winter & almost no sea ice. Max snow is only 20cm, sea at +1C
On 30 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:

Hints of spring lthelast few days 11.4 c this morning. The month was very mild here and despite lack of rain since 22nd it has been wetter than average with rain. Predominantly sw winds. Doesnít look like any changes to the current dry calm conditions in the near future . I expect the 30 d forecast will reflect this. My back gardens summary hottest 33c 26/6 , coldest -6.6c 28/2 wettest35.6mm 20/9,windiest21/9( this coincided with a rapid rise in pressure with HP peaking at 1040 mb on24/9 ).LP983mb 6/3. Despite the lack of light , grass ( and weeds) are growing slow but steady.
On 30 Dec 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:

On 29 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:.......yes Paddy you are correct usually here about mid to late jan but it does depend on the weather It seems very mild this December but that could change real soon, Looking at the sun through a vail of clouds while setting it looked different somehow a lemon colour not the yellow to orange very wierd never seen it like that before , mind you it just could have been the thin cloud it was shining through. Spooky., mild again today but dry with not a breath of wind. Happy New Year to all.
On 29 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

8˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, Wíly breeze which suddenly turned into a NWíly gale by 9am and kept going until about 4pm, it was warm though, with a max temp of 10˚ and mostly sunny, calmer cloudy evening, 4˚ at 10pm. We had a wasp fly into the house when we had opened the kitchen skylight while cooking, first time Iíve seen that at the end of December! == Steve, Dorset, our snowdrops have been poking out of the ground since the beginning of the month, not flowering, of course, but still, they donít usually appear before sometime in February.
On 29 Dec 2018, Steve, Dorset UK wrote:

I have my first snowdrops in flower, not to many yet but if this mild weather that piers failed to forecast continues the daffodils will be closely behind them, Cloud no wind to speak of and mild 12c.
On 29 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:

Don't be a tight arse rich buy them both lol's a win win situation
On 28 Dec 2018, Rich wrote:

Finger crossed for the cold, but little sign of much at the moment, despite musings pre winter and During December. How does the last few years and this winter to date fit in with idea we are heading into mini ice age? How dose it fit with less snow patches in highlands and shrinking Alpine glaciers or as per publicised higher global temps is it all to be disbelieved? More to the point, do I need to get my 6 year old a new sledge or stick with scooter?
On 28 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

7˚C at 7.30, some light rain to start with but then a really sunny day in a light Wíly breeze with a max temp of 7˚, probably a bit warmer in the sun, mild enough to break a sweat easily, down to 3˚ by 9.30pm.
On 28 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:

Thanks for the reply David. ....I know you have been going fir a colder January. a postman I like to know on advancewhat I might face ...when I subbed sorry to say the forecasts for my area were only on average 25% accurate no blame being attached and I used to forewarn my fellow posties and ended up with egg on my face numerous times ......until the accuracy of bad weather becomes more accurate I shall avoid subbing
On 28 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

Ron Greer.....yes the slug hangs around. Piers next displaced PV for New Year will be too far NE for UK. The Synoptics are right but shift 1000miles NE and itís bang on. Now what for Jan? High latitude blocking responding to SSW from week 2 or continued displaced PV events. Piers says heíd adjusted things NE.....Iím hoping heís wrong as the slug will control Fred
On 28 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

TONY EX SUB I know what you mean because as you said the signs should be there. One thing is certain is that they just aren't there this winter. Its good to see other people besides myself who are concerned about the winter this year.
On 28 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Tony - I think give it 3/4 Days, to see the SSW kick in and we may get a quick change in weather patterns over the Northern hemisphere. Still literally, all up in the air
On 28 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:

You can understand why there is a little scepticism about an lia ....certainly the UK is showing no real trends ....I know it's early winter but and I'm deff No expert surely the signs should be there it is very mild to be fair and from all corners I've read it will be till at least mid January. ...dave what do u think ????
On 28 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

The FSF (Fred's Slug Factor) has to be included in any predictive system for B& I--- looks like very mild New Year period--shades of 1990?
On 28 Dec 2018, stephen parker wrote:

Its the ongoing SSW which may well give us an interesting spell of weather, and us down here in the Beautiful South any chance of the White Stuff. We probably have around ten weeks then it will be all over bar the shouting.
On 27 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Cloudy mostly dry @ first some light drizzly showers at times after lunch. High humidity Max 9 deg. 6 now at 10.20pm feeling a little cooler after a humid mild few days.
On 27 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell with Venus shining bright in the S, a mostly sunny day with a max temp of 7˚ and a light SWíly breeze, 5˚ at 9.30pm.
On 27 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

Fred's slug is a very sticky creature! No signs of any kind of winter on standard models well into January.
On 27 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:

Hi Piers from your comments one would assume that Jan 45d was available but not there yet
On 27 Dec 2018, @piers_Corbyn twitter wrote:

THANKS ALL for great comms through the year and recently. +=+=+ CHRISTINE +CRAIG re Sudden (upper) Stratospheric warmings (SSW), We (WeatherAction) have had some success at predicting them in the past. They are probably a more energetic solar-particle / magnetic connectivity effect likely involving ozone. They may or may not transmit downwards in the stratosphere and when they do give extra wild jet stream effects. Their energy content is higher lower down (so some sort of magnifier operates). +=+=+ MATT+DAVID(Yorks) Thanks comms Yes A N/E pattern shift could have helped. Central Atlantic mildness is a factor (also). Forecasts NW Eu +BI look like coming more on course in Jan [NB rest of Europe and Usa pretty good in Dec]. I have nevertheless included some NE shift in this Jan - an exciting month. +=+=+=+ ALL, ENJOY THIS YEAR OF EXCITING WEATHER AND SCIENCE-POLITICS!
On 26 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

7˚C at 7.30, some overnight rain, mostly cloudy day with a max temp of a whopping 10˚, intermittent strong Síly breeze but so still warm in the evening that we have our bedroom window wide open for the second night running, still 7˚ at 9.30pm.
On 26 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Hi Matt - Fair and balanced assessment in my opinion. The cold and snow events often so not materialse. If piers adjusted his SLAT to shift pressurs maps to the East of he UK a little, I feel it may be more accurate. Fred has also alouded to this. The real skill, which should get more recognition, is the ability to forecast extremes around the globe weeks in advance.under the "R" system. Anyway merry Christmas to all.
On 26 Dec 2018, Matt wrote:

Hi Piers, I've been following your forecasts for several years and maintain that your pressure forecasts are approx 75-80% accurate, but over the years you've consistently over-estimated snowfall to the extent that I generally disregard your forecasts for "snowmeggedon". No doubt you're looking into it. I've put a new comment on my website about this. I still maintain that my analysis is the most comprehensive ever done on your forecasts. Your Wikipedia page is very unfair and I think you should challenge it. I put a link to my website on there sometime ago and it was taken off by the page owner, but no proper, fair, unbiased, scientific appraisal of your forecasts exists. Best of luck to Weatheraction for 2019!
On 25 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

-3˚C overnight, but already warming to 0˚ by 7.30, overcast, light NWíly breeze, then a sunny day with a max temp of 8˚ and the breeze turning W & then SWíly, 5˚ by 10pm. Merry Christmas all! Glenn, does weather have tradition?
On 25 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

Another non-White non-traditional Christmas. This winter I have lost faith big-time in the weather. Let's be honest about it, snow and cold winters are now a thing of the past in southern Britain so anyone hoping to see it from now on will be out of luck. Snow RIP February 2018.
On 25 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:

A very Merry Christmas to all from sunny St Lucia our first Xmas away, seems strange not to have it cold and wet.
On 24 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cloudy drizzly foggy and damp 8 deg at 11.45pm Merry Xmas to Piers & all at Weather action⛄have a good un 😁
On 24 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, ground frost, clear moonlit start followed by a sunny day with a light NWíly breeze, frost staying put in shaded areas, max temp 2˚, then -2˚ at 10pm under a hazy moonlit sky.
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:

Thank you for that. My question though is why this happens? Assuming it is energy from the sun causing the heating and compression, do we know why it only heats the stratosphere in this way, on these occasions? What is different? Is our usual shielding different in some way? I can't find this information anywhere and it's perplexing me.
On 24 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Christine - oops. Try now I've updated the video.
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:

Thank you for your swift reply. The link doesn't appear unfortunately.
On 24 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Christine try this video ===
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:

Hi, can anyone explain what causes the Sudden Stratospheric Warming events please? How does the energy enter the stratosphere at that time? What is different exactly? Thank you.
On 23 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, slight ground frost, cloudy start, followed by a fairly sunny morning and afternoon, max temp 4˚, light NWíly breeze, 2˚ again by 9.30pm but no sign of frost.
On 22 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, light rain which soon petered out and we had a reasonably dry and occasionally sunny day, although everything is dripping wet and humid, with a light Wíly breeze and a max temp of 6˚, down to 4˚ by 10pm, nice moonshine.
On 22 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:

FRED - ďslugĒ... I like it! :)
On 21 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, fairly clear sky and quite damp from overnight rain, also quite cloudy but turning into a bright day nevertheless with cirrostratus causing a milky kind of sunlight, very light SWíly breeze with a max temp of 4˚, cooling considerably by mid afternoon, breeze changing into the NW, 0˚ by 8pm, frost on car roof (which I mention quite often as a first indicator).
On 21 Dec 2018, C View wrote:

Giant hail hits Sydney Australia damage running into the millions they say
On 21 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:

I don't see any change in the current weather pattern before the end of December. Anticyclones over Scandinavia, cold weather in central Russian and Ural, warm stormy wet weather charging into the bay of Biscay as of today yet again. + Pouring rain in France, plenty of strong winds for Scotland and some high altitude snow in the alps. Current ski conditions are totally unlike last year, (which was fantastic for a lot of December). Right now only the southern Alps is good, while it's really impossible in the north part, and stormy winds are blowing from the south west right up into the Rhine valley. (ie. NO SNOW in Jura or Vosges!) better be patient!
On 21 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Fred - slug, not heard that one lol. Well slugs don't like salt and there will be plenty of that being chucked around in a few weeks.
On 21 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

NewForest, yes thatís generally correct....displaced PV. For those wanting cold unfortunately we have what I call a slug developing.....High Pressure over Spain and France. Once it sets up shop....goodbye at least 2018 and probably a fair bit into January.
On 21 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:

I havenít seen Piers forecast FRED but based on your comment I am guessing he went for a cold northerly flow? He has missed a few over the years but itís a different approach to regular forecasting that we all buy into with Piers, and itís evolving continually so will hopefully become more accurate with time. I still see the charts predicting a high pressure formation over the UK next week, with the SSW in the mix things can change quickly so maybe an evolution of all the factors will come together and give that cold flow? Iím a fan of cold, snowy weather btw!
On 20 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

Unfortunately Piers forecast will see the Arctic plunge be too far east ......yet again. This continuous miss is a real concern....something is wrong
On 20 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

4˚C at 7.30, dreich and drizzly but what do you expect at this time of year? That was the theme for the day, light SWíly breeze, max temp 5˚, down to 4˚ again by 10pm with the moon and odd star twinkling through the clouds. Regarding the snow & cold/no snow & cold debate, Iím not too unhappy when itís mild & open for much of the time, makes practical life on the farm a lot easier even though I do welcome frost etc also.
On 20 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Glenn - you really must stop equating your birth with the start of climate history. I was born in 1964 and grew up in NW London from the age of five. I remember my dad getting us a toboggan just after Christmas 1970 after it snowed before but melted again before we could use it. Between then and 1978/9, we used it only once after a freak snowfall one year in mid spring. 1970s winters were mild, friend. No ifs, no buts. Just like summer 1976 was very similar to 2018. 2018 was not unprecedented in history, just unprecedented in your lifetime.
On 20 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

*loco... Breezy with some showers yesterday but not as crazy mostly cloudy 6 deg dewpoint 4 at 1.39pm
On 20 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Carlow weather talking of a ssw possibility end of mth here, polar vortex would be nice too, plus all the other ingredients to make it chill, dont ya just love weather watching its as Craig said Interesting. The amount of panic family tried to place on me last Jan as my due date approached and really all it did was send them more logo than me, all you can do is prepare then chill out and enjoy and apply logic and reason to the mix too. We got a fair share here last winter, if it does it again im going to throw myself in the snow this year instead of walking like a penguin 🤣 like Craig said Winter only starting, so enjoy the rollercoaster of the season 😁
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Interesting watching. Look at the uncertainty for the Jetstream for xmas day! Following then seems to be frost and fog weather (looking forward to that) but a discussion also about the SSW which leads us initio January (this is quite an early SSW btw) ===
On 19 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:

I've seen stratospheric warming is on the cards over the next week or so, which would tie in nicely with a switch in weather and temperatures. It seems to be producing a high pressure as a result over the UK but with a southerly (warmer) flow of air being pulled up from the South. I think it would be interesting to see if the potential development of the high pressure ties into the European/Scandinavian high to give a beast from the east... Any thoughts guys?
On 19 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

So Piers had last 3rd Nov spot on. If he has Xmas onwards needs a massive model change. Nov forecasts almost changed overnight.....3 days and counting...I hope he has it nailed
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Mark Hall - Point taken re: civility but this writing off the whole winter before solstice in a one off comment from someone who has never commented here before is trollish behaviour. Happens all the time on weather forums and has happened here year after year. It is disruptive and provocative to write off a season that has hardly begun unless there are reasons presented (West qbo, Nino state etc). Its Dec 19th only & whilst yes we could miss out (UK can & so often does) you only have to look at the state of the n. Hem atmosphere to see we are in with a fine chance with 3 months to go. Last year it snowed in Berks in Dec, Jan, Feb and March with 3 decent spells - and this is not snow County believe me! A Jan 1881 would be fine by me if that's all we get 😂
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Glenn one final thing "Lefties are the lowest of the low." You do know Piers is a leftie right? The main centrality here is that solar and lunar modulations affect our weather not co2. We come from a broad political spectrum. The lowest of the low are those who promote falsehoods such as cagw like Al Gorythm. Whilst sadly many on the left has drank the climate catastrophe cool aid, it is not all Lefties. Don't allow yourself to fall into such binary thinking and alienate those who have more in common with you than you think.
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Also writing off winter before solstice is lunacy. Do we write the whole summer off in mid June? Of course not. Long way to go with, as we saw this year, snow opportunities possible all the way into April (1908/1958/1981/2008 (yes a 50 Yr repeat in the mix there)). Last century the real memorable winters were 1916-17/46-47/62-63/78-79 they were long winters. Not so many is it? The cold bits of the 1980s weren't that prolonged by comparison despite for example the brutal Siberian weather of Jan 1987. Worth remembering that 09-10 was colder for some northern parts than 62-63. Jan 2010 is right up there in terms of snow depth. As for now we have a ssw starting and who knows how that will end up in the coming months. Lots to be positive about. Its not even solstice after all and most winters don't get going until after.
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Glenn - the first mind winter was not 87/88. Ron has often written off the poor winters of the early to mid 1970s, soon followed by a pretty solid decade into the mid 80s. Further back the 1920s & 30s were also quite poor. The mid 90s may have been poor for the south but up north they were not. Snow is the exception but the rule for the south and many an LIA winter going back to even Pepys time was poor for snow despite the brutal winters then. We often just have a freeze for a week and that's about it. The 40s - 60s were an aberration in many ways. Read this from Paul Homewood=== === the facts don't back up your assertions, although locally its not unheard of for snow to miss some areas - even Dec 2010 (0.1įC off all time record) was not snowy for all....cont....
On 19 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

DAVID (YORKSHIRE) The claim about no mild winters before 1987/88 was from my own observations. I have been observing the seasons since 1983 when I was just 7 years old and from what I can remember every winter before 1987/88 was cold and snowy.
On 19 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, cloudy morning - contrary to MO forecast - with a light Síly wind which became a bit stronger as the day went on, much sunnier afternoon and temps slowly creeping up to 5˚, still at that by 9.30pm.
On 19 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Glenn your of course entitled to your opinion, however please stop with the bizzare claims. No mild winters before 87/88 where do you get this info from??
On 19 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

I AM NOT A TROLL!! I am just someone who likes traditional British winter weather and when that doesn't happen I have a right to be p****d off. The very first mild winter was 1987/88 and ever since we have suffered with loads of them. Mild winters did not exist in Britain before 1987/88. When it comes to trolls I would however rather be a troll than a leftie. Lefties are the lowest of the low.
On 19 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:

So relieved to get away from the freezing east for a week or so. From what I read you islanders are very unhappy about a more temperate winter+there's very little snow in the alps now since the last snowfall. Well. You should come to the freezing Baltic states or Russia. In the northern sector (SPB) it's been relatively warmer because of a procession of Scaninavian blocking highs, mostly over now, being replaced with snow. But:- In Moscow it's pretty cool right now, down to nr -20C, when loads of people were talking rubbish about there being no snow this December. Ahum , winter started very early in Ural this year, ie. anywhere east of Kirov. So, if you are getting warm weather in UK and France, with green grass, count yourselves lucky. It's not going to last. Remember the chaos you get there with 1 flake of snow. When our nice continental cold comes to hit you, it's not going to be very funny. Just saying.
On 19 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

I see that Glenn Troll is descending into a parody of itself.
On 18 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Wind outside woke the tiny one up at 3.30 a.m and we stayed awake for a good hour listening to it, some heavier showers too by that point and into the morning. Cooler as the showers moved through by late mornjng and 5 deg feeling cooler now at 11pm quiet out before more rain forecasted for the morning.
On 18 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

8˚C at 7.30, already very windy from the S and getting stronger all the time, reaching the same intensity as on Saturday, rain starting at 9 and continuing with very heavy bursts from time to time until 5pm, pretty amazing. Wind abating by early evening, temperature down to 6˚, brilliant sunshine forecast for tomorrow.
On 18 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

Glenn Maybe you have a valid point if it was Feb 18th......not now. So weíll dissect your super mild Winter LRF come Mar 1st....fair game?
On 18 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

(SANDERS HAMER) I know exactly how you feel about this winter. Its December 18th and I am extremely disappointed with the whole situation. It promised so much and has given so little. I certainly don't think there will be any snow this winter for us southerners. Oh well, better luck next winter.
On 18 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Bill fair enough. Moving on I see no reason to back down from 4th to 10th of Jan being significantly wintry. Considerable warming way above the pole looks likely to peak at Christmas. Give it two weeks to have a knock on affect through the layers and waves and reverse the current trend. Then the UK should see a significant cold spell. Perhaps even more blocked further down the line.
On 18 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:

Calm down Craig, don't go snow blind in this weak blizzard of LIA discontent. There is nothing wrong with debating with people who hold different views. Plus, if done properly, it is educational. As discussed previously .....banning, binning, proscribing and no-platforming are what the AGW side have been doing to us for decades. So why ape their methods? Plus, you have made a big thing about the need for civility in the past, so casting casual insults is a bit hypocritical. Sceptics will be vindicated by a cooling global climate which is inevitable. We don't need to take the low road. I don't expect this comment to be published.
On 18 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

"times fast running out for winter 2018/2019.only 2 weeks to go till december ends." What a contradiction in terms. Astronomical winter begins Friday and lasts for at least 3 months (hey this year's Beasty clearly didn't happen and has already been 'adjusted' from memory) but those unable to hold two competing thoughts simultaneously say winter is over - after a weekend of severe winter hazards. Are you able to walk and talk at the same time? Anyone foolish enough to write such tripe from this point on without putting in the effort of some valid reasoning will go straight to the bin. Life is too short to suffer fools or to feed trolls.
On 18 Dec 2018, sanders hamer wrote:

times fast running out for winter 2018/2019.only 2 weeks to go till december ends. and its been week on week of rain and storms here in lancashire preston.looking like 2013 , 2014 ,2015, all over again .looks like its going to end above for the month of december.very very disapointed .and theres only 10 weeks to go till winter ends on the 1 march not looking good. another 2015 and 2016 winter sorry forks. still theres summer 2019 to look foward to roll on summer.
On 17 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Yellow wind warning here and it does sound windy n gusty out, a lot of water across fields I noticed when out today not so much heavy rain here tonight though other counties on a yellow.
On 17 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, slight frost, sunny start but clouding over soon after, light Síly breeze which developed into a fresh wind by afternoon, temps rising to 6˚ over the course of the day, very damp, drizzle by late evening, wet day announced for tomorrow courtesy of Atlantic Low.
On 17 Dec 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:

-David Yorkshire Ok so you were referring to England My location borders with So I didnít make my comment based on no experience. Your ď discussionĒ appeared to be just difference in views between you. I was trying to make the point that being an island the weather can be very different whether For example you refer to 2009 and 2010 as being snowy . They were not snowy in the north west cold maybe yes but not snowy. So we differ in views on snowy December 2009,for England not Uk
On 17 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Pretty sure it is clear we were discussing snowy Decembers for England and not winters for the uk.
On 17 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

PADDY: Aye, we had a proper blizzard for several hours with local power cuts. We still have snow lying despite a slow thaw. Damp foggy dreich this morning.
On 16 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

Now weather report yesterday because we had a power cut that lasted almost 24 hours, it was pretty wild stuff, gale force SSE winds all day, very strong in the afternoon, the noise in the tunnel where I was working was ear shattering, lots of power lines down. Today much calmer and with great sunny spells, 1˚C at 7.30, max temp 4˚ and back down to 1˚ by 9pm, frost on car roof, winds more SWíly today. Ron, snow with you as expected, I see.
On 16 Dec 2018, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:

No snow here yesterday just plain cold with occasional rain in a biting SE wind. Max 1.5c until about 5-6pm as Deirdreís centre moved in temp increased to 7c by end of night with a change in wind to SW( very gusty for a time late evening) . Average temps today (6c max),rain late afternoon damp tonight light winds. With regards snowy winters , it depends where in UK you are and the type of winter . E.g here , last winter was not particularly snowy our heaviest fall was mid December which was predominantly on a NW trajectory.
On 16 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Glenn - 1995 and 2005 Yes, the others I would not describe, as "snowy" Decembers from my memory anywhere in England. Could be wrong. Since 2006 we have had, at least 2 snowy Decembers, 2009 and 2010. So I cannot personally see, what has changed statistically?
On 16 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

DAVID (YORKSHIRE) There was quite a few December's before 2006 that were snowy. There was 1995, 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005.
On 15 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:

Rain and wind and more rain we are offically soggy underfoot, orange countrywide warning for wind was downgraded here to a yellow for wind n rain and remained orange on the south n eastish coast. Back to duvay and resting to rid the first proper flu in 20mths 🤧 winter is only just getting started plenty of time yet for contrasting weather. 6 deg at 10pm seems to have tailed off out there and moved through.
On 15 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

yup, dully arrived this afternoon and several cm of wet snow lying here at 140 metres by 1700hrs
On 14 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, strong, raw and cold SWíly wind blowing all day courtesy of the Scandinavian High, cloudy & showery morning, drier afternoon with some nice bits of sunshine, max temp 4˚, down to 2˚ by 10pm, the air smells of snow even though there isnít any forecast for our area, but as Craig says, yellow & amber wind, snow & ice warning for inland areas.
On 14 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID ( Yorkshire) Even GFS is now going for a cold Xmas period now ( hope that doesn't put a hex on it !) Norfolk is a warmist enclave apparently so I don't think you'll get an answer. Jings only mid December and a blizzard already--only Jan, Feb and Mar. to go for Glenn.
On 14 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

All coming together nicely Craig. Glenn you have not answered my question??
On 14 Dec 2018, C View wrote:

For those looking for winter looks like a good dose of it coming tomorrow. For us in Scotland 20cm snow on high ground freezing rain and gale force winds. For Sunday in the mountains hail snow and thunder.
On 14 Dec 2018, @Piers_Corbyn <=twitter FOLLOW! wrote:

THANKS FOR TOP COMMS Craig and all. NOW *XMAS* GIFT TIME GO TO HOME PAGE Right-Hand-Side FAB DEALS UP TO 67%OFF - GET THAT SPECIAL GIFT FOR YOURSELF OR FRIEND - All-Winter-Now-inc-all-updates And 45d inc 30d great special deals for 6m/12m. As always Extra forecast extensions are given for any overlaps with existing subscriptions.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Yellow and Amber warnings out for much of the UK with very rare freezing rain in the mix (Central belt of Midlands up to Scotland). Its an R3 so may be slightly amped up from forecast. Be careful. Looking at WA the high pressure is sat over Scandi rather than Germany so we did not get the mild but got the settled for this period. Later in the forecast looking good. // Models showing a good chance of a white Xmas although depends on precipitation + cold on the day. Looks to warm before dropping around new year. Waxing and waning but no lock on...yet. Full moon 22/12 New moon 6/1. Likely SSW brewing around Xmas also with a possible 2nd to follow. Polar vortex will be under duress with increased blocking. Have to say looks like a special start to 2019 in the offing. A cold spell to hit in Jan offers some very low temps. My energy bills with the added green taxes will not be pretty. Nor will food prices in Europe. A Winter of Discontent as Fred has said.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Yellow and Amber warnings out for much of the UK with very rare freezing rain in the mix (Central belt of Midlands up to Scotland). Its an R3 so may be slightly amped up from forecast. Be careful. Looking at WA the high pressure is sat over Scandi rather than Germany so we did not get the mild but got the settled for this period. Later in the forecast looking good. // Models showing a good chance of a white Xmas although depends on precipitation + cold on the day. Looks to warm before dropping around new year. Waxing and waning but no lock on...yet. Full moon 22/12 New moon 6/1. Likely SSW brewing around Xmas also with a possible 2nd to follow. Polar vortex will be under duress with increased blocking. Have to say looks like a special start to 2019 in the offing. A cold spell to hit in Jan offers some very low temps. My energy bills with the added green taxes will not be pretty. Nor will food prices in Europe. A Winter of Discontent as Fred has said.
On 14 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:

The last week around here started very wet off the Irish Sea , showers finally let up on Monday morning . Mainly dry from then with lighter winds backing from west north west to south east by end of week. Average temps except Thursday /Friday with max at 3.5c . Rainfall now 59mm for the month. Forecast stormy weekend , we might have some short lived snow here , since a SE is the best chance of a snow with the long fetch overland. Having had time (recuperating from an op) itís been good to read up on some interesting stuff is posted on the weather action.wordpress as well as some of the latest presentations by Piers and wild encourage others to do do. I guess though there a fairly mature audience here do no preaching from me. I would be interested to have some feed back from Piers as to any thoughts on start ofSC25 itís duration , strength and whether thereís any projected changes from earlier this year particularly magnetic that may be changing the weather now or in near future.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019: The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December. Updated: 15:03 on Fri 14 Dec 2018 GMT
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Latest MetO update === UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Friday 28 Dec 2018: Cloud and rain should clear east early on Wednesday with sunshine and blustery showers following. The showers most frequent in the northwest and west where there is the risk of hail and thunder with some hill snow in the north. Some patchy fog may be slow to clear on Thursday with fewer showers and lighter winds. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around or a little above average. However, there is a small chance of a colder and shower spell developing during Christmas week.
On 13 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

5˚C at 7.30 and, again, for the whole day. Mostly cloudy with only few glimpses of the sun, some very heavy showers during the morning, dry afternoon, strong and raw SEíly wind at first, gradually turning into the SW. Stars shining in the cloud holes tonight.
On 13 Dec 2018, steven collier wrote:

First geoengineering experiment to dim the sun on track for 2019 Harvard scientists will attempt to replicate the climate-cooling effect of volcanic eruptions with a world-first solar geoengineering experiment set for early 2019. The roll out of them using technology/spraying to block UV from heating up the earth is their answer to the world actually cooling by itself. They'll take the credit for the cooling and sing themselves as the heroes steering the narrative the way they want it, still insisting that global warming is only being held at bay due to their genius ideas and applications of Geoengineering, it's also a means to keep the $$$ coming in "if we don't get more funding for our spraying efforts we'll have to stop before were done fixing the climate and the sky will immediately fall"
On 13 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

Very interesting. MetO warmists say mild and westerly, models say blocked and cold surface feed, Piers? Neither so where are we headed???
On 13 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019: The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow. Updated: 15:06 on Thu 13 Dec 2018 GMT
On 13 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

GLENN, shock and horror, not even mid December yet and at least one warmist troll thinks there will be no snow in the remainder of December, January and February--amazing eh?
On 12 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

6˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day right up to 10pm, strong Síly wind and cloudy all day but dry, so was able to get on with work that the recent frequent rains made impossible.
On 12 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:

C view I've always stated when the USA gets bad weather we get mild far this December I've seen nothing to change my mind. ......the UK seems to be stuck in the occasional bad weather year after year .....deff not an lia hete for me even piers struggles with uk predictions
On 12 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Hertfordshire wrote:

With regard to the mildish weather: Don't our winters normally get going after Xmas anyway? Situated on the edge of Europe next to an Ocean would take the edge off many cold snaps. Cooling trends like 1900-20 and 1960-80 took a while to get going, so 2020-40 will probably be a similar cycle. At the moment, with the meridional jet stream dominating instead of a zonal pattern, there are massive polar incursions into North America and Chine. So the slack has to be taken up somewhere else, like Western Europe and temperate air masses are indeed being pulled up from the south. Whoever gatekeepers these blogs, could you pull your finger out and release my New Futures postings about Brexit? The second one was definitely within modern safe space parameters. Thankyou, most humbly, in anticipation.
On 12 Dec 2018, C View wrote:

Dear All. There appears to be a very noticeable sense of disappoinent around on this thread due to a lack of "proper winter weather". Ever since December 2010 and Piers assurance that this would increasingly be the way of the future, people have let their expectations run riot. Keep the faith and look at rthe bigger picture, There has been a large expansion in the area of the Arctic covered by thick sea ice over the past eleven years. Nearly two thirds of the Arctic Ocean is now covered with ice more than two meters thick.There are plenty of places we can point at and see where the AGW theory is failing.
On 12 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Glenn - out of interest how many snowy Decembers have you seen before 2006 in the South East? I'm curious that's all.
On 12 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Glenn earlier in January this year you said "There will not be any more snow in Southern Britain this winter, I am prepared to put money on this. January is not really a snow month in Britain. December is the main month for snow and thats gone now." So go ahead and write this winter off. The reverse psychology should kick in by Xmas 😂
On 12 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

The warmists are going to have a field day during winter 2018/19. So far December has turned out just like so many other December's since 2006. It could well be that February 2018 was the farewell snowfall for southern England. Its now dember 12th and time for snow is running out fast.
On 12 Dec 2018, M Lewis wrote:

Well both the Met Office (ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5) and Meteogroup (BBC) are both forecasting a very wet and stormy rest of December. I would again urge residents of Carlisle, York, Cardiff, Bristol, Somerset etc to take action to ensure all pumping stations are fully working. Better safe than sorry! Summary Unsettled weather for the rest of December Unsettled for the rest of December and into the new year, with potentially stormy and very wet weather through the Christmas period. Staying mild, with colder air more likely after Christmas.
On 11 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, all frost gone, cloudy all day with a light Síly wind temps slowly rising until it reached 7˚ by 8.30pm. Iíll be happy when the real cold comes but in the meantime Iím equally happy to be able to work in relatively warm and snow-free conditions, always a lot to do to get everything in order before the winter. == Mark Fuller: wow, our last nasturtiums in the veg tunnel finally got hit by -4˚ on the 5th, geraniums got a beating as well before I put them in the shed but theyíll survive, fuchsias have lost their leaves long ago, lobelias long gone but we still had a few hardy rudbeckias outside before yesterdayís frost.
On 11 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

FRED; rest assured I am well aware of the inconsistencies of GFS and in fact I once coined the expression 'chimpanzee foot painting' to describe their chart graphics. It's just a reminder to those who criticise Piers if he doesn't get it quite right from weeks or months out.
On 10 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:

Ron Forget the GFS at t384......never ever right....unless one of the 30 possible outcomes happens
On 10 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, good ground frost which stayed in place all day, light NWíly breeze, sunny morning, cloudier afternoon, max temp 2˚, down to -2˚ by 10pm under a clear sky.
On 10 Dec 2018, Mark Fuller wrote:

Yuletide is my favourite time of the year despite the predictably mild wet Atlantic dominated horrible weather. In my north Liverpool back-yard the following plants are not only alive, but still producing some flowers: fuchias, nasturtiums, lobelia and geraniums. Ivy is also slowly spreading too. Much as I love my plants, I'd rather be looking out at snow as we approach Christmas. Fat chance.
On 10 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

Took just a wee bit longer than I predicted yesterday, but sure enoug,h GFS is now going for southwesterlies on Xmas day
On 10 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

A few interesting factoids: 1) For the first time since I started monitoring arctic ice diagrams (around ten years), Hudsons Bay has frozen faster than average. Diagrams at Plenty of ice for polar bears next spring then... 2) The wildly exuberant snow depths forecasted by computer models at for the weekend blizzard have failed to deliver, depths being 50-70% of what was predicted at best. Another round of over-exuberant predictions made also for this Friday onwards. The snow fell where expected but nowhere is remotely close to 150cm new snow yet. 3) Snow is currently mostly absent below 1000m in Switzerland, so no signs yet of 'harsh winter'. The record depths at altitude is in fact a sign of warmth, as snow falls most at temperatures at or around freezing, not at -15C or below. 4) Short of unexpected warmth however, the Christmas/New Year should see good winter holiday conditions for most, a welcome relief after a few poor starts in recent y
On 10 Dec 2018, Lorraine wrote:

Lorraine// just tuned ion you tube channel and unprecedented snowfall in North Carolina 20inches and comments from there saying never seen snow this bad ior this early
On 09 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:

Think he is on a wind up Ron. 4th - 10th of Jan the watch period. Just my mousings.
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

Oops-- Meteobeeb models now going for a spell of cold easterlies on their Countryfile forecast. Might even get the odd snow flurry in Norfolk.
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

Yes Glenn, 90% of the winter still lies ahead and it hasn't snowed in Norfolk yet.
On 09 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:

It's funny how things change in 10 months. February 2018 was real winter in Britain, but so far December has turned out just like the December's of 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Not a single flake this winter and it's already December 9th.
On 09 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:

What a miserable wet and windy few days. Dreich , torrential showers at times on a strong to gale force westerly. its like looking through a fishmongers window! Get little sleep when itís so inscesant. The joys of the ďCheshire gapĒ and Liverpool Bay. Quieter as this morning progresses. Is there any relief from this? Some other sites hinting at a big change in a few weeks. J Bastardi says a SSW around/before Christmas. Whatís in store for us????
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:

As of the 11.00 hrs on Sunday 9th Dec, GFS is clearly pointing to a substantial outbreak of polar maritime air over the UK 22-25th December. BUT we could reasonably expect, on past experience, that this forecast will change to warm south westerlies by 15.oo hrs.