On 09 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
This thread has now closed. Please move over to the new winter thread here ===
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=839&c=5
On 08 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, strong blustery NW’ly wind but overall quite a bright dry day with reasonable amounts of sunshine, max temp 8˚, down to 5˚ by 9.30pm.
On 08 Dec 2018, Maria ( Ireland) wrote:
A lot of wind and rain this last few days, some cloud and sun today but still breezy with showers at times. 9 deg feeling like 3 dew point 5. Too soggy to work outside so a day for getting in the Christmas mood with the kids and the tiny one :-)
On 08 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Data from > 100 measuring stations in the Swiss Avalanche Service network shows:
1. Around 5 stations around Simplon Pass and neighbouring Saastal are at record highs.
2. From Martigny to the head of the Rhone, remainder of stations both south and north are average to slightly above average.
3. From south of E. end of lake Geneva along north side of massif to western approach to Sustenpass, well below average to record lows.
4. Rhein drainage basin, mostly below average, with odd southerly stations above average.
5. Engadine, southern valleys and most of Ticino mostly slightly above average.
6. A few stations in NW Ticino, well above average.
A significant snowfall this weekend will change things, but early winters shows no signs of anything but persistent moisture appearing from Mediterranean, not Atlantic.
On 08 Dec 2018, stephen parker wrote:
Interesting posts but remember models have poor reliability more than five days out.
On 07 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Went up to Nairn yesterday, leaving in murky drizzle and emerging into sunshine just before Elgin with the car thermometer reading 11.5˚, some change from -4˚ on Wednesday morning. This morning we had fabulous sunshine with around 8˚, driving home was very pleasant and now we are down to 5˚. The wild winds announced by Vimtomet’s yellow warning didn’t quite materialise, it was just a bit blowy from the SW, I suppose that is still better than doing a Michael Fish ’87.
On 07 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Two sets of monthly data released recently:
1) The snow extent data for the Northern Hemisphere for 11/2018 from climate.rutgers.edu (Global Snow Lab)
Once again Canada and USA have record-breaking coverage - record high since data started in 1966. Eurasia is higher than average but by no means exceptional.
2) The monthly snow and avalanche report from www.slf.ch
At the end of November many measuring stations were at or near record low snow depth (many recording 0 cm), some around average and a few over 2000m showing record highs. Regions with huge snowpack at altitude include areas around Simplon, NW Ticino and the Upper Engadin.
However, early in the season, one snowfall can often shift data from very low to very high.
The mega-snowfall depths predicted for the next three days have unsurprisingly been downgraded by 33% over the past three days. We will see what we will see, but over-exuberant predictions are occupational hazards in the run up to Christmas/New Year s
On 07 Dec 2018, istvan ilyes wrote:
Has anyone heard from Piers? I have read a number of his forecasts on Daily Expess daily Star and bbc online, but nothing from his whereabouts.
On 07 Dec 2018, Michael (all winter sub) wrote:
If only Exacta had substituted the words 'snow' with 'rain' and 'blizzard' with 'wind', James would have nailed it. I don't know why he continues to proclaim armageddon scenarios when it's just a typical British winter in the offering. IMHO and I've seen PCs Dec 30d cast, we are in for a very topsy turvy winter and no sustained beasterly or similar. Usual places will get snow and the usual places will moan (London, Norwich). Get used to it everyone, more of the same in the years to come!
On 07 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Well I'm really torn between the worlad heating up and world cooling down .....which sites you go on will promote their theories. ....having been a sub on here b4 I find that the comments change like the wind ...1 thing I'm sure of is the world weather cannot be faithfully predicted from week to week ....as for this winter in uk who knows ????so hard to predict without the wayward jet stream ....not sure we will ever hit the 62/63 or the many other extreme prolonged winter spells .....I'm getting less convinced about an lia but am open and honest enough to keep that open mind
On 07 Dec 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
First week of December it’s been predominantly SW winds strong at times some wet days total rain this week 32mm. Mild with 13.5C yesterday being highest this week.
On 07 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) Fair enough, David, and there's the bulk of the winter ( and up here that can include early April) still ahead, as we reach the end of the first week of December. I was most amused at the late night forecast from the Beeb admitting their uncertainty over the next week. Plenty of PM air around even n standard models.
On 06 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron I was expecting more substantial blocking over us and to the North tbh but plenty of time for it to develop for early January. I'm not expecting a beast more of a direct unstable Arctic feed.
On 06 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Very interesting Dec forecast. Piers without giving too much away, before if you had a 75% confidence rate you would post what would/could be different. You don’t seem to do that anymore? I note also a certain period has gone from 85% down to 75%?
On 06 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
just watched the 'Carol cast' the blizzard word arose for Friday and the prospect of colder weather next week. Did you see it Glenn?
On 05 Dec 2018, Andy L (Cambridge) (occasional sub.) wrote:
Well, we know that winter's finally arrived when Glenn makes his annual return to chirrup morosely about the end of "real winters" in Norfolk. Roll on Christmas.
On 05 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30, seriously cold, well, compared to what we’ve had so far, and good training for what is to come. Clear for about an hour, then clouds started moving in from the W, wind turning from W to E during the day, temps gradually rising to a max of 4˚ by 10pm, drizzle & light rain started by about 2pm, turning any concrete surfaces in to skid pads, all gone now though.
On 05 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
It now looks like a mild winter is likely this year. After such a promising forecast of snow in December, it has once again came to nothing. And I thought that February this year when we had the real proper snow was meant to be the end of UK mild winters. Obviously I was wrong.
On 05 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
M LEWIS: GFS is now backing off the easterly penetration, but is still showing incursions of PM air and after a milder spell on the 21st. As you know meteobeeb always gets it right. !
On 05 Dec 2018, Geoff wrote:
M. LEWIS...No, No, No, read 'Exacta Weather' and you'll be " Walking-in-a-winter-wonderland "
On 05 Dec 2018, M Lewis wrote:
RON - you must be joking - there is no chance of a White Christmas this year in the UK.
Latest Monthly Outlook from Meteogroup (BBC Weather provider).
Summary:
Potentially stormy and wet for Christmas period
A changeable outlook through December with potentially stormy and very wet weather through the Christmas period. After a brief cold snap, the latter half of the month will stay fairly mild.
I strongly recommend that residents of York, Carlisle, Cardiff, Bristol and Somerset etc take action to ensure the pumping stations are all fully working!
On 05 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Some standard models are showing quite a wintry period from the 7th-21st with an almost traditional Xmas mild period setting in after various incursions of PM and and easterlies, but with an outside chance of more PM getting in for the core festive season DAVID( Yorkshire) may yet be proved correct.
On 05 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Good spot Paddy . I’ve been cooped up for two weeks following an operation so starting to go stare crazy, must be the pain killers sending my mind daft !
On 04 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, thick ice on water butt, open soil frosted but not very hard, I think this is only the second time that we have had such low temps this side of Christmas. Great sunny and still day with a max temp of 2˚, soil remained frozen all day, was digging chicory roots for forcing, roe deer had gotten into the garden through an undiscovered hole in the fence & eaten off all the leaves - which meant less work for me :-). Driving along the river Dee tonight, car thermometer read -2.5˚, back home it was -1˚ again by 9.30pm. == Bill S, new moon on Friday rather than full.
On 04 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Wow we had some rain at the weekend 3 inches of rain in a black dustbin by Monday morning. Cold yesterday but even colder this morning with a hard widespread frost that lasted well into lunch and looked seasonal, fab jogging in the frost as at least was drier, cleared this aft. with cold almost sleety showers at times.
On 04 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
For amber warning I should have writtenyellow ( not great with colours) It is the metobeebo so expect it to change anyway .
On 04 Dec 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Cold start no frost though at 3c . Cloudy from mid morning on . Light winds throughout pressure has continued to rise 28mbars in 30 hours. I see an amber warning issued for Friday night for High winds some models going for Lowlands Scotlandto NW England for peak winds . Coincides with full moon is it a red period on the Wa forecast?
On 04 Dec 2018, Mark Fuller wrote:
Would be wonderful, just for once to have a "proper" winter here in maritime Liverpool with some lengthy cold spells consisting of clear blue skies, frost and some snow. If I could I'd emigrate to the States where the climate is generally more extreme and interesting.
On 03 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:
"So still no snow in many Alpine resorts"
WTF you on about??
Don't you ever look at French alpine web cams?
Orcieres, Mont Blanc, Val Thorens,Alpe d'huez ...just had a whole dump of snow, and temps down the Rhone valley are close to zero!
Some resorts opened and some have up to 3m at the summits.
Is your misinformation deliberate??
Baltic states / Scandinavia have been mostly snowless because of a 6 week blocking high.
Believe me, out here in Ural it's been down at -20C already in November, plenty of early snow, and now it's arriving in Moscow and the SPB region/Baltic also, despite claims there wouldn't be any snow before the end of the year!
crazy!
On 03 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, quite damp but sunny nevertheless, keen NW’ly wind blowing all day, a bit of a jolt after having been wimped out for so long by elevated temperatures but most enjoyable, winter seems to be arriving, combined Greenland and Atlantic HP giving us a good blast of polar wind, makes sitting by the stove really enjoyable, 0˚ at 10pm, ice on all open water butts & buckets, soil surface in tulip pots already solid.
On 03 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
A good 12mm rain ( half inch in old money) Cleared to a fine afternoon with a few showers. 14mbar rise in pressure in 8 hours but not subjected to any fierce winds ( thankfully). Temps lower today peaking at 8C.
On 03 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
So still no snow in many Alpine resorts and four days of rain forecast by amongst others meteo.ch this week. Zero snow in Davos (1560m); Grimentz/Zinal (1670m) and almost zero snow at Kleine Scheidegg (2000m).
There are claims of 100-200cm snow 'in the next nine days' for Northern France, Northern Switzerland and Western Austria.
One wonders what the snow line will be. 800-1000m in Switzerland and 600-800m would suggest winter is arriving. 1800-2000m would suggest otherwise.....
Such predictions two/three weeks before Christmas/New Year peak are either fortunate or holding credulous tourists as hostages to fortune.
On 03 Dec 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
The computer models are picking up on cold easterlies 8-10 days from now with High Pressure possibly migrating up to Scandinavia. Anything is better than the mild and mucky weather we have at the moment.
On 03 Dec 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Here in dorset about 14 miles or less as the crow flies from the coast it is very very mild and you can nip out in just a T shirt for about 10 mins before you feel the need for a jumper, not a sign of any cold on the horizon yet.
I am not complaining at all as the heating can be turned down.
On 02 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, slight frost in places but quite clear, totally opposite of the rain that the Vimtobeeb had predicted yesterday morning and evening, so no rain all day, glorious sunshine for a short while in the morning with mist in low lying parts, hardly a breeze, then cloudy but dry for the rest of the day, 5˚ max temp and still that at 9.30pm, now accompanied by light rain. Next few days should be quite sunny. == Ben, I agree, Piers’ forecast was somewhat out, the cold & snow didn’t quite turn up as expected or it was further west. I also support Piers because he is a lone and courageous voice against the cacophony of the Globogreenistas. New term explaining the highjacking of people’s laudable environmental care impulse for the Globalists’ own nefarious population control ends.
On 02 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
BEN FARRINGTON: on the other just comparing the BBC forecast late last night for snow on Sunday/Monday and the one they put out this morning, puts Piers' long term ones into perspective.
On 01 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, some frost in the usual sheltered spots, somewhat windy at the start from the SW but calm thereafter, mostly cloudy with very little sunshine, max temp 4˚, still that at 10pm with light drizzle. Agree with Mike Barnes, Piers always responds when phoned.
On 01 Dec 2018, Ben Farrington, sub, Moray wrote:
November WA forecast was prophesying cold and snowy in the north and some mild spells to the south (overall confidence HIGH) Main warnings significant snowfall especially after mid-month. For where I live an work (Scotland) this was not the prognosis. Broadly speaking first 2.5 weeks mild/very mild and dry. 3rd week somewhat cooler (average), final days wetter and windy.
The Nov 30day does actually go out to 2nd December, so I expect to see the Dec 30d turn up next week, and remarkably is currently fairly accurate. Just because you pay for a forecast does'nt mean it will always be right, but one always hopes that its money well spent :)
On 01 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
Fred,
Yes I hope Piers is well. Himself, Bastardi, D'Aleo and a few others are the only relable sentinels in the corrupted landscape of climatology.
Then again, if my brother was actively trading against 5 million of his own voters and 150 or so of his own constituencies ......I would have had some sort of breakdown myself. Maybe that's the reason.
On 01 Dec 2018, Mike Barnes wrote:
Fred,Mark H:
There's nothing stopping you from picking up the phone and ring Piers. As stated on the bottom ALL WINTER FORECAST NOW.
I have done this over the years and Piers has always answered!!!
Kind Regards
Mike B (Subscriber)
On 01 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Agreed, I’ve even emailed a few times with zero response. I don’t know what’s going on but surely a colleague should update us if Piers is otherwise engaged or incapacitated in any way. It’s like motorways....a little info helps alleviate any angst, silence or zero info does not helpful.
I’ve had my 30 day Nov forecast disappear a few days ago, not very impressed by that. It’s interesting though what I remember that the synoptic pattern is spot on, but as in other years where Piers predicted strong cold from this type of set up.....it’s considerably less cold than he predicted...as is usual from pM air masses
On 01 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
In the two years that I subscribed to the 45day forecasts I think they came through as advertised only a couple of times (during the middle of the preceding month). So I have gone back to the 30day format. Still waiting for December projection though.
Communication from Piers regarding delays is not even parsimonious. It is totally absent.
CView ....Those AGW bozos at the BBC are right in a way. Humans have caused all of these recent warm years, but it is only a self-selected vanguard involved. They did it by adjustments to the raw data. And by deleting the two thirds of land stations not subject to the Urban Heat Island effect. Ignoring satellite and balloon measurements that show no major warming trend. Ignoring Argo buoy measurements that showed cooling and instead reverting to measurements from ship engine intake valves. Hansen, Jones, Mann, Karl and the rest are forcing the climate far more than nature ever could.
On 01 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
November was on the dry side of average at 48mm, half of that falling this week. Mild and breezy week predominantly south west this week after mainly light easterlies mid month. So what will December bring? How does the low sunspot activity influence the ability to shift jet streams? Is the extreme cold over the US and Canada enhanced or influenced by the magnetic north Location i. Curious to understand the current drivers affecting what appeared to be another easterly high pressure set up drifting to the more mobile westerly.
On 30 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
Geoff
I don’t get your point? Exacta weather?
On 30 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, quite windy from the SW but dry and quite sunny all day, max temp 8˚, nice starlit evening, 2˚ at 10pm, feels like frost on the way. What with the mild autumn we have had, some of our wallflowers are actually beginning to bloom, they’re not supposed to do that until springtime.
On 30 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF; Aye Exacta is exactly the same every year.
On 30 Nov 2018, Geoff wrote:
Don't worry, Fred, 'Exacta Weather' promised me faithfully that it's just going to snow and snow and snow...so that's all sorted, then !!
On 30 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
Has anyone received the 45 Day December yet?
On 30 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire ) yes it does snow quite a lot above 900 metres up here, even in June at times, but the point I was making was merely that the cooler air had arrived There is no sign of cold easterlies though the standard models indicate quite frequent PM incursions
On 30 Nov 2018, stephen parker wrote:
Indeed, some models now going for the jet to be further south, well, it will be December!. Amazing to think just a few years ago we had all that snow around the 10/12. David will have to put more gravy on his Yorkshires to keep warm.
Down here in the beautiful south we need the the rain, the rivers are low and the bourne's not running at all, hint: last two weeks in December get interesting
On 29 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron, i would imagine it snows quite a bit round your way 900 metres up this time of Year. Fred no cold storm but a storm it was. Piers accuracy with the R periods, is remarkable, even if the smaller details, are a little out. Weather is miserable at the minute.
On 29 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, drizzle followed by rain all morning, some of it heavy in a beefy S’ly wind, max temp 10˚, drier afternoon with the sun appearing below the clouds on the western horizon by 3pm, actually saw some blue sky in the distance as well as a spectacular rainbow, wind turning a bit more into the SW and feeling fresher, some stars out in the evening, 6˚ at 10pm.
On 29 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED: indeed and it's digging in here now with just the first dusting of snow above 900 metres or so,
On 29 Nov 2018, C View wrote:
MSM at it again today with yet another lengthy report on
on the BBC 1pm news about how 2018 is likely to be the 4th warmest year on record. THat's right we are supposed to get worried because this year has been as hot as some previous years. It seems with the frequency of the AGW reporting of late that they really are worried the house of cards is about to topple.
On 29 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
So models are now tracking the low pressures further and further south, keeping pM air in the mix and indeed will spread it South. Over coming days I anticipate growing support for Euro trough with jetstream shunting south and a NW/SE axis. Cold theme looking to re-assert
On 29 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
ISTVAN ILYES: please remember that Piers is just human and may be ill or taken up by other personal issues and bear in mind that the UK media is not exactly enamoured with alternative views on climate change.
On 29 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
meteoBeeb now mentioning that Scotland will remain north of the Jetstream and in cooler PM air most of the next week.
On 28 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, grey & windy from the S all day with frequent showers, some heavy, so it was a wild one as promised, gale force from midday to early evening, then abating, max temp 10˚ and still that at 9.30pm. Yes, Maria, R5 stuff alright.
On 28 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Looks like incursions of Polar Maritime affecting much of Scotland and parts of northern England Friday of this week to middle of next week with snow not just over the high tops, but to considerably lower levels at times.
On 28 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
UK Monthly Outlook just published by METEOGroup (BBC) weather forecast is not promising for Piers!
Summary:
No sign of any prolonged cold weather just yet!
A changeable outlook through December with wet and breezy conditions likely at times. Turning drier and calmer for a while, though, around the middle to latter part of next week. Often rather mild with a lack of any sustained or severe cold.
On 28 Nov 2018, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Has Piers vanished? Not heard a word. The weather is going somewhat crazy lately. Much has been said in the National press about big changes in our weather. But not a word from Piers.
On 28 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yep we have weather going on today!-) Wet and windy, yellow warning here surrounded by an Orange around us below. 65kph with 107kph gusts, so not as bad in our area, 977mb and 13 deg feeling like 7deg 91% humidity. Def. a top R5 period well forecasted by Piers.
On 27 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, dark, windy & wet, however, further inland icy roads were being reported; strong SE’ly wind all day and getting stronger towards evening, frequent showers all morning, somewhat drier in the afternoon, max temp 6˚ and still at that by 9.30pm, wild day forecast for tomorrow with gusts up to 57mph as well as torrential rain.
On 27 Nov 2018, steven wright wrote:
December forecast must be hard to predict and a important one to get right so maybe that's why we haven't got 45 day forecast yet but then again I could completely wrong
On 26 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
We were down near Forfar yesterday at the foot of the Angus hills whose tops are covered in a dusting of snow, considerably colder there than with us, especially in the raw E’ly wind. Though it was 4˚ this morning and while we had some sunshine for a couple of hours while driving home the wind had turned into the N and for the first time it had that sharp edge of winter, max temp 6˚ but 0˚ by 9.30pm, expect to see ground frost by tomorrow morning. We have a yellow wind warning for Wed & Thu, plus heavy rain forecast courtesy of the approaching Atlantic Low.
On 26 Nov 2018, C View wrote:
Desperate times mean desperate measures. Given all that is happening in the World and in the UK the BBC tonight went with yet another Global Warnig armageddon story as the lead story on the 6pm news tonight. This seems to be a common theme these days they obviously think people are losing faith so need plenty of thought correction stories to make them once more see the light
On 26 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN AND DAVID. The models especially GFS are notoriously fickle and vacillating, and don't suggest anything other than Polar Maritime air of various intensity until the end of the first week of December. Time will tell.
On 26 Nov 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Thx for the comments David when I subscribed as a postman I tried to get other workers interested by giving some predictions to them sorry to say a few times when I said beware it didn't materialise. ...again No ones fault just the way of the weather. ...
On 26 Nov 2018, stephen parker wrote:
RE: David ( yorkshire )
The weather will get interesting in the last two weeks of December.
On 25 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Tony I get your point but it is still November and. Unfortunately some rely on weather models too much. I don't expect a mobile winter for the UK at all. I would be very surprised looking at anologues and the state of the stratosphere. Maybe a week of Atlantic driven weather before the cold returns.
On 25 Nov 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Well not sure what to make of the weather so far this autumn nothing to write h9me about cold wise ....I've always saidwhen northeast usa is bad we miss out ...seems the same again so far in my opinion I don't see a bad winter here this year going 9n the history I've looked at ......I think all forecasters are struggling 1 minute bad winter another time mild even reading comments from regulars on here there is a lot 9f chopping m changing. ....I'm No expert at all but i.think this predicting ahead is struggling
On 25 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
METEO Group (BBC) weather monthly outlook posted Saturday is sticking firmly to mild, wet and windy weather and no sign of a Siberian Winter for the UK as follows:
Rather cold and cloudy over the next few days but becoming milder, wetter and windier through next week, especially after Wednesday. Pressure is then set to build across the UK during early December, giving a period of dry, calm weather for a time, before a transition back to an unsettled south-westerly flow from the Atlantic takes place later in the month.
On 25 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
I’ve got the Nov forecast and the end of Nov is looking spot on. The only thing is pM air doesn’t cut the mustard for very cold conditions, only the NW generally does and only snow that hangs around is hillsnow. If we are to get a very wintry December then we are going to need more than pM air to achieve that. The models are going into Atlantic frenzy mode, currently not a good sight for those wanting cold. I commented the other day when we were in for an extra-ordinary December Piers announced it months in advance due to public interest, I suspect we are not in for one of them but a nothing out of the ordinary one.
On 25 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Piers did say the jetstream would sweep South and it did === https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/img_20181125_0109388287179578243139550.jpg === all the way to Africa, however it has a northerly arm which cuts off cold that can be pulled in from the Arctic. It does look certain to be wet and mostly boring. The high will recede but for how long? Hopefully some fog and frost as weather systems pass but I did notice on the 18z GFS ensembles some colder members right towards the end of the forecast period edging back to the - 10°C Mark at 850hpa. Calm before the storm? Looking forward to seeing the Dec forecast and if it's worth a bet on a white Xmas - one of those is long overdue!
On 24 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, drizzle and a NE’ly breeze, some dry spells but not many, temperature staying the same throughout the day, a little bit of sunshine and bits of blue sky in the afternoon as well as showers throughout, saw the just passé full moon through the clouds a little in the evening but frequently accompanied by showers, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 24 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The polar vortex is being pressured by ridges & a ssw is likely in the weeks ahead but we may not need that for cold although it could punch hard into Jan. As always we lie on the periphery but I special winter beckons but it may take patience until it finally kicks in. Some of the winters ahead may not feel special as we deepen into the MIA
//
As summer beckons in the S Hemisphere global warming rears it's ugly head *cough * === https://wp.me/p3GPQK-2LF
On 24 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Watch a vid I did in 2013 covering Nov-Jun showing the wax & wane ===https://youtu.be/Odik1lhP1nA=== We just had a small uptick in solar activity but now are again spotless. The cold may feign a blow but it's waiting to hit back. The jet looks to split energy & will nibble away but cold boring & dreary will be always near. As an example Dec 62 had the worst fog since the Great Smog of 1952 at the start. What followed were gales, deep depressions & heavy rain with some snow (Scot+East Anglia as depressions pulled a northerly airstream). By Xmas a very different picture emerged. Nov 1978 had a "mild first three weeks; cold last week, with snow" the December? "Heavy rain and gales at times, snowy and very cold at end of month." I see flavours of that playing out at the moment. We are not zonal. The ensembles show waxing & warning although nothing particularly cold (that does not mean no snow btw). We are not zonal... Cont...
On 24 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Following my mention of frost we dropped to - 4°C with snow coating across parts of the south appearing but since then grey & cold with a distinct flavour of driech to this morning turning to grey & non descript as a low rotates over the SW of the BI - hence a MetO yellow rain warning. Model wise the MetO had a decent video the other day ===https://youtu.be/BaJv7F8bB_Y=== explaining the impass. Effectively its all about how far a pick up of mobility (not zonality) in the Atlantic will fare. With blocked Meridional patterns the heat (i.e. the punch of warmth into the pole) has to go somewhere. Likelyhood we are in that vicinity or thereabouts. Often we see the Atlantic barrel into Europe & the cold retreat (Dec 12) but not always. Cold air sinks. Warm air rises. Cold can be stubborn & can advance remarkable fast - ever put the heater on yet your toes are cold? In a low solar environment cold does not take well to being bossed about. It feigns & suckerpunches...cont...
On 23 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last few days pretty much as everyone else experiencing, cold wet damp foggy almost sleety showers the other day they were a bit different :)
On 23 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30 and throughout the day, another one wholly owned by the wet, some of it heavy, clearing only by late evening so that we could actually see the full moon, SE’ly breeze during the day, quite still by evening, down to 4˚ by 10pm.
On 23 Nov 2018, Geoff wrote:
Perhaps, Piers is under the weather...if you'll pardon the pun.
On 23 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron you make a valid point, Apologies. Eastside you seem to agree with most on here then re winter. We have called a few mild ones correctly over the years from 2013 to 2017 so we certainly cannot be accused of having a cold bias.
On 23 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID ( Yorkshire ) perhaps you are being a bit unkind to Piers. He might be ill or just very busy with other commitments.
OUT_EAST: fascinating stuff indeed and it is a reminder that there is that latent threat of colder easterlies to come as the winter progresses. Standard models all over the place in respect of our volatile climate here in Britain in the meantime with the MeteoBeeb going for a spell of mild, stormy Atlantic weather from midweek.
On 23 Nov 2018, out_east wrote:
"Appears this year that snow is going to different places."
No it's not!
Winter is well and truly here in Russia, much earlier than usual, now starts the cold extremes.....
Having travelled here thru Kirov>Ural 10 days ago, first came a wave of warmer drier weather, and now here we go...
Loads of powder snow, bitter cold, followed by a drop off the cliff -25C (already pegging -15C this eve) forecast for next week.
This is not November weather it's mid January stuff, so Jan will likely be a lot lower than this.
Thanks to the Scandinavia/central Europe persistent anticyclone conditions the siberian cold is not expected yet in France and is not yet in Finland/Baltic states etc (there was a short lived wave of it a week ago)....but be patient.
It's coming!
When this wave of cold comes, it's not going to be fun.
On 23 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I think piers has retired?
On 23 Nov 2018, ronan Carroll wrote:
When is the nov 45 day being posted? At this time of year need the forecasts to be relatively on time.
On 22 Nov 2018, Ben Farrington - sub wrote:
Just finished a week working in Glencoe, and yes Easterly (not returning polar maritime) winds did bring some snow and it was a chilly wind. But very little really, most significant amounts well above 900m, snow sports are along way off at the moment. There were no blizzards or travel disruption as per WA forecast for period 17-21.here in W Highlands.
Any chance of a winter update to add to the all winter forecast Piers, or is the 15-45 day forecast no longer in production?
On 22 Nov 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
I've been housebound with really bad sciatica for the past 5 weeks so I missed the cooling off period. Last time I wandered outside it was 16C. The car today said 3C but my face said -12C. What a shock! All foggy an'orrible! There was a dusting of snow across Tideswell, Derbyshire on Wednesday as a photo from a taxi driver friend proved......Now up to season 3 of Highway Through Hell on Netflix. Nice to see those Canadians coping so well in winter conditions. First hint of black ice or 4 inches of snow and the trucks are flying off the roads into ditches faster than the programme producer can count them. Those rescue services are gonna love little ice age conditions hehehe!
On 22 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG & M.LEWIS: excellent expansion of my phrase 'vacillating standard models'--they just don't have a clue.
On 22 Nov 2018, C View wrote:
A very timely photo on the Weatheraction home page as today's BBC news is full of more hysteria led by the WMO saying that we must repent our CO2 sins or die. The weather report and the end of the news ironically then reported how temps. had fallen to -7c in parts of England
On 22 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Appears this year that snow is going to different places. Moroccan High Atlas forecast of one metre of snow 19-26/11, courtesy of Atlantic depressions much further south.
Med. depressions are giving snow to northern Italy and NW Ticino, but northern Swiss and Austrian Alps pretty bare.
Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine just received a covering but less snow than normal over Scandinavia.
Glencoe and Cairngorm just received first real covering of the season. Much more needed for winter sports.
California just getting its first snow for Thanksgiving, whereas Colorado has bumper early snow. US NE brutally cold, California has not been so.
Here in NW London, the leaves are falling at the usual time and the grass is now fully recovered from the six month summer drought. Surface soil now damp enough to justify composting on top.
All in all, nothing that has not been seen before. Including cherry picking charlatans in the media.
On 22 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Dec 2018 to Thursday 20 Dec 2018:
Through this period, there is likely to be a continuation of cold and mainly dry weather for much of the UK, with sunny spells and a few showers. However, there is a chance the weather pattern may change temporarily, with fronts moving in from Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if this change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled weather again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to colder conditions, with overnight frost and fog more likely. === Atlantic is coming against the block but how far does it make it? Roughly in a week the scatter is about 15-20 degrees diff meaning there is massive uncertainty. I think the block holds and in about 10 days will push back. It is not zonal weather ahead by any means. Full Moon Friday. See how that affects going forward
On 22 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
M Lewis - contrast that with the MetO (updated 2am today) ===
UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 5 Dec 2018:
Many places will be dry early next week, but often with large amounts of cloud around. Eastern and perhaps southern parts however may continue to see some showers around initially, with the a few heavier showers possible. The west and southwest of the UK will then likely turn more unsettled as we finish November, with these conditions possibly progressing northeastwards. It will generally remain on the cold side for the time of year, with the risk of some frosty nights and also some transient hill snow. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps colder but drier weather if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.
On 22 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Well Meteo Group (BBC Weather forecasts provider) has now come out in favour of a mild December. No sign of a bitterly cold Lorna Doone winter!
Summary:
A chilly start, but gradually turning milder.
A cold easterly airflow will continue for the rest of this week, with cloud and patchy rain for eastern and northern Britain, with drier, brighter weather in the west. Becoming mild and breezy from the middle of next week, and these conditions should continue throughout December.
On 21 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, very strong E’ly wind, showers off & on all day, some of them very heavy but also short, though overall not as much rain as expected from MO forecast, 7˚ max temp, wind abating by 5pm, fairly calm at 9pm, 6˚ again by then.== RON, spot on! Same here and much colder feel than what the thermometer said. If you want to discourage any person from coming to Scotland, show them this weather :-)
On 21 Nov 2018, BillS ( NE Wales) wrote:
Just watching bbc news , “the people’s seat” , represented by Attenborough. It’s a farce , because it will only represent the one vie. You can guarantee no debate. I hope he gets snowed in , it might generate some discussion.
On 21 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
what a thoroughly miserable dreich November day up here, the kind we invented whisky for! Somewhat alleviated by the amusement at the vacillating standard models still trying to work out what's going to happen in the remainder of the month.
On 21 Nov 2018, Lee Barrett wrote:
Hi there Ron I hope ur well, I also agree with u I reckon this winter may match 1985/86 it’s certainly going to be a very interesting winter indeed. Am certainly enjoying the good discussion here in the blog too.
On 20 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A cold start but no frost, the air felt damp and sure enough scattered cold light showers on n off today some heavier bursts later but still light sounding. Max 7 deg but feeling colder with the raw breeze. 4 now at 11.24pm
On 20 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, strong E’ly wind bringing frequent showers, though the stars were peeking through the clouds early on, and that was the theme of the day, bar a few intermittent rays of sunshine during the morning. Strong winds from E & NE throughout, showers were/are short but sometimes very heavy, real November stuff, temps briefly rose to 6˚ but now at 9pm 5˚ again, much more rain to come tomorrow apparently.
On 20 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG: very interesting post,which I read just after having a laugh at the way the standard models are having a variety of internal contradictions over a short time period regarding the interaction of Atlantic air masses and various polar air masses. I see there is quite a few of us now who won't be surprised at a cold mid-late winter.
On 20 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... Cont... A top 10 winter past 100y possible with an exceptional period waiting. Jan certainly a possible as you say. Febs have been also lacking overall so can't rule that out. 62/63 a no but it is reminding me of it but nowhere to the same degree. // today dew points just above freezing and cold in the ENE wind. Possible sleet in the forecast today. We shall see. An interesting winter lies ahead
On 20 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
David - yep about right. I see cold+dry as primary focus with limited milder interludes as energy from the Atlantic comes up against the block (= poss going under & pulls jet down giving possible Jan 1881). Watch for storm tracks down in Spa/Port). Last decent Jan snow was '13 then' 10 but much further back for proper cold one (80's?) so overdue like Mar 13 was overdue. Models have backed off the mild incursions but I see this every year when they pick up a signal in many cases it is just the energy not being modelled & they never handle blocks that well anyway. I would not be surprised if we stay cold/dry with no real snow for now giving fog, mist & frost as the blocks are not quite there yet but building (Scandinavia still not frozen). Early Dec 62 was foggy (fear of smog then) with real cold/snow late month. Dec 2009 also proceeded by fog. Mainly I see a long cold mainly dry winter into spring like 1916/17 + 78/79 (v. dry autumn)... Cont...
On 19 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast with a stiff E’ly wind, feeling colder and rather more wintry, even if there is now ice or snow, light rain by evening though, 6˚ at 9.30pm. Just heard that it is snowing in Paris and Lyon has an orange snow warning.
On 19 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Mixed bag the last 9 days but drier after a lot of rain & a beautiful clear blue sky day yesterday, fab for a long walk, only a few crispy brown leaves left mostly on a few trees so we are majority bare trees now, noticeably colder this morning and today and not a bad day again after an icy start, a small amount of light precip. felt on a couple of occasions. 6 deg feels like 3 at 9.14pm
On 19 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED; yup standard models now backing off from cold in early December and now going for mild start ( like Dec 1985 after a cold end to November) METEOBEEB also backing off cold at end of this week, but going for cold midweek.
On 18 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
Hi David
Never thought 62/63 is on....but a winter of discontent....yes I believe we are in for that. Models backing away again from backing off from cold....watch for a cold storm end of the month
On 18 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy, not as windy as yesterday and actually turning quite sunny as the day went on, max temp 9˚, light SE’ly breeze, cloudy again by evening, 6˚ at 10pm. RON, looks like a grey week ahead for us and not particularly cold, HP weather can be like that when we’re under cloud cover here in the Northeast.
On 18 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Cheers Ron. Sorry if I'm repeating myself (see earlier posts) I think it will follow a simular rythm, as 95/96 and match intensity of cold/snow. High pressure drifting over us, to the North and to the East. I say this because of the solar cycles and weak meandering jet stream. Sticking to my guns that Early Jan will be the coldest spell for the UK. As always with the UK there will be mild spells in between but I feel these will be short lived in nature. Be interested to see if Craig agrees.
On 18 Nov 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Fantastic autumn day , early frost gave way to a mild day in light east winds. Unbroken sunshine throughout, A bit like the great June summer weather just gone ( obviously not the heat!). For fun I’ll say we have winter like 76 77 only because it followed that lovely summer.
On 18 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
LEE and DAVID, My gut feeling is for more of an 85/86 winter rather than a 62/63 one. You were correct. David about an easterly setting in in late November.
On 18 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: all the TV forecasts I've seen today are predicting cooler air coming in tomorrow and Tuesday and this has been consistent for a few days. It has been much cooler here today than last week, but not all that very cold. The initial easterly feed is, as I said in an earlier post, not going to be all that severe and certainly not a 'beast' The intriguing and variably predicted period is the last week of the month, when it could or maybe not. be very much colder
On 18 Nov 2018, Lee Barrett wrote:
Hi there everyone & Piers iv not commented here for quite a while I hope everyone is well. What an interesting winter we may be about to have going off my pretty good knowledge I think the UK will get a severe winter regardless of this week ahead which looks like being abit of damp squib. A white Christmas would be nice. How does everyone else feel about this upcoming winter? 😊
On 17 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast with a SE’ly wind all day, max temp 8˚ and still that at 10.30pm. Whereas we have had much S & SW’ly winds of late that made for very high humidity and everything dripping wet, what I noticed tonight as I went to read the thermometer was a much drier atmosphere, even though the wind is coming off the N Sea. With the current position of the HP centre over S Scandinavia this regime could last for some time and when that happens, things get really dry relative to the time of year. RON, MO isn’t showing much of a drop in temps for next week yet, they may change their mind, of course.
On 17 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
What are freds thoughts are we still on for a 62/63 winter? It's chilly tonight and will certainly feel cold next week in the breeze.
On 17 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: According to standard models we won't notice to much difference until Monday and it won't be all that severe. GFS has done another major flip flop and the penetration of various forms polar air forecast only late yesterday to cover much of Europe by next week is now going to stay much further north and east.
On 17 Nov 2018, Alex H wrote:
Just letting everyone know, New Zealand will be getting winter weather and temperatures during spring:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108618671/early-warnings-of-major-winter-storm-next-week?fbclid=IwAR364vzpcUUOZAFUOLIR-NRVJRoLwVLgVKgpGH2blZuddZ3BuLMZNi_5xuE
"Based on the latest information, snow could fall as low as 200 metres above sea-level in Canterbury on Monday night, he said.
That level was "pretty much unheard of" for mid-November."
On 16 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, clear sky for a short while but then cloud moved in and we had a grey one, even quite foggy in the afternoon, light S’ly breeze, max temp 11˚ and still 10˚ at 9pm. The cold is taking its time to arrive; while many trees now have their winter revelation of their inner workings, so to speak, there are also still many bright yellow leaves left on certain species, such as hazel, depending on location, all due to the extended warmth, I would think.
On 16 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
RON. Noted! Well the Forecast from the Met Office (ITV and Channel 4 weather provider (paid for by advertising revenue) is significantly different to METEO Group.
UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:
For much of next week it looks mostly cloudy with the best of the brighter spells in the west. Showers are possible, mainly in the east, and these could turn wintry over hills. It will be cold, especially in the south, with this accentuated by the brisk wind. Night frosts are likely and could become widespread at times. Towards the end of the week there is a chance of outbreaks of rain and hill snow affecting many areas at times, particularly in the south. Similar conditions will probably continue into the following weekend and the last week of November. There is also an increasing chance of snow falling to lower levels towards the end of November, mainly in the north and east.
On 16 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS flip-floppimg over intensity and duration of forthcoming colder easterly weather. Though this spell will come as a big change from the exceptionally warm spell up here in Scotland it does not look like there will be any heavy snowfalls and below 400 metres daytime temps will not drop below freezing.
M LEWIS: just watched two BBC TV forecasts clearly showing widespread penetration of cold air from the east next week over the whole of Britain.
On 16 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Still no sign of any cold or snow from Meteo Group Forecast (BBC Weather provider (paid for by the UK TV licence payer).
Summary.
Dry and settled but turning cooler.
The end of this week will see the weather becoming drier and more settled, and it will remain relatively dry and calm next week, although it will turn cooler. There are still indications of more unsettled, breezier and milder conditions at the start of December.
On 15 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, sunny turn today with all day beautiful light and a S’ly wind with occasional strong gusts, max temp is now at 9.30pm: 11˚! And surprise, surprise, tomorrow will be cloudy again.
On 14 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, drizzle and a mild SW’ly wind, after a sunny day yesterday we had a dark one today, mild though with a max temp of 12˚ and still 11˚ at 10pm.
On 14 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire) Aye, that's the kind of nonsense the AGWers would come up with to explain the low temperatures in the Antarctic. Talking about cold air, I see GFS is now going for quite a nippy last week of this month--shades of 1985?
On 14 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The guvnor - That has been caused by AGW. You see the Arctic warming and melting has caused the cold air to move to the south pole, causing extremes there.
On 14 Nov 2018, theguvnor wrote:
'Antarctic temperatures recently plunged close to the theoretically coldest achievable on Earth!' Headline to article in WUWT. What will the warmista come up with now that this is the last vestiges of coolth cowering in a distant corner of the globe? Settled and sunny in SW for last few days after a period of torrential rainy days.
On 14 Nov 2018, theguvnor wrote:
'Antarctic temperatures recently plunged close to the theoretically coldest achievable on Earth!' Headline to article in WUWT. What will the warmista come up with now that this is the last vestiges of coolth cowering in a distant corner of the globe? Settled and sunny in SW for last few days after a period of torrential rainy days.
On 14 Nov 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Funny how things go round come round(to a certain extent), I was listening to some “letter from America” from 1977 . In it Alistair Cooke talks about the ongoing 18 month drought in California and associated wildfires and the declared state of emergency. While he tells us the rest of US is in its worst winter for decades (Recording fromFeb) and all that followed a hot summer in both USand UK
Windy and drythis morning (southerly wind) , mild at 12.6c at 0630. The charts going for high pressure later in month ,it’s already quite a dry month only 24mm rain so far.
On 13 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, nice starry sky early on, Venus in splendour, sunshine all day in a barely perceptible S’ly breeze, much appreciated at this time of year, max temp 11˚ but in the sunshine it was 16˚ according to the car thermometer, getting cloudier towards evening but Mars was visible around 4.30pm, 5˚ by 9pm. == CRAIG: snow dumplings? Mmmm… I like mine with chives and a dusting of oregano :-)
On 13 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
M LEWIS: I am very reticent about taking the claims of the Express regarding severe winter weather in prospect. They basically put the same warning out every year about this time.
On 13 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
You can certainly feel a chill in the air today!https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1044352/UK-weather-forecast-heavy-snow-November-2018-Winter-Met-Office-latest-cold
On 13 Nov 2018, istvan ilyes wrote:
istvan ilyes Crawley West Sussex.
those of you wondering when Piers will say about the winter, he has given a good idea in the Daily Express.
On 13 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG350M: I agree that the best place for the Grenfell debate is on another venue.
As far as the winter coming up is concerned, I find your observations very interesting. If I remember correctly the winter of 65/66 was very cold in Europe , but B & I largely missed out on the worst of that one. Much depends on where the blocking Highs sit.
On 13 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Perhaps more like 95/96 or 08/09 Fred? Both solar minimum and why I have had this year earmarked, for a cold winter since 2013. The only caveat is what will hit us from the sun, in terms of solar winds from CME etc in the coming weeks and months?
On 13 Nov 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Citizens can we move the Grenfell debate to the Politics and All That blog post ===
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=831&c=5
=== Thank you. // Fred it does look like a memorable winter in the offing with distinct shades of 62-63 in development (not saying it will be as cold). But could the BI just miss out? Personally I see a long winter in the top 10 of past 100 yrs. Certainly the potential for some serious dumplings of snow this winter if it continues on this path. As for the near term the high looks to settle over us giving a period of potential frost and fog but not before we get some warmth courtesy of a long jet bringing from Africa as the blocks adjust.
On 12 Nov 2018, Lorraine Lister NZ wrote:
@Mark Hall - It is ridiculous to liken what happened in the Great Fire of London to the very recent Grenfell Towers fire still very fresh in the minds of survivors and their families and friends. I'm not arguing for anything Mark but I do believe in showing compassion. If your idea of a free society doesn't allow for this then we clearly have very different views of life and I am very comfortable with mine.
On 12 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED: Piers will tell us in his own good time and as we know from 2010, he won't mince his words if he's sure about the outcomes.
On 12 Nov 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Cor blimey guvnor....certainly rained on Friday night on the city of London. We came out of the London Palladium at around 10pm and it was raining tigers and wolverines. Not exactly mild but can't have been cold the way the ladies were dressed. They must have mistaken it for late July. Eased off a bit out at the City Airport but laid awake listening to the persistent downpour until the early hours. According to the rain radar the rain covered almost the whole UK at around 9pm. Overall I would say that Derbyshire has become fairly normal and autumnal.
On 12 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
Piers, a question. This winter looks like matching a 20th century GREAT. Why aren’t you pumping out a warning for this.....you did in 2010....this winter is major, it would be a great coup!
On 12 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, a very damp but sunny morning with a light S’ly wind, max temp 11˚ by midday, afternoon cloudy with a couple of showers, 7˚ at 9pm. So far, so mild.
On 12 Nov 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
So Lorraine,
You think it would be a good use of police resources to arrest people who make jokes about the Great Fire of London of 1666. Thousands of people were incinerated in that one. That is what you are arguing for.
The right to offend other people's sensibilities is an inalienable right in a free society. Otherwise creeps get to arrest whoever they like, because they have been allowed to choose our values for us. Kneejerk revulsion about this or that is gristle to their mill. Credulous people like you believe they would stop at persecuting sick pranksters. They would not. All dissenting opinion would be prey to their ambitions.
It's been an amazingly mild autumn so far, hasn't it.
On 12 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php website, hosting the Global Snow Lab, reports that monthly snow coverage of North America is the almost the highest since 1966 (when the records began) for October 2018 (2/51) and the very highest for September 2018 (1/50) too.
However, across the whole Northern Hemisphere, whilst snow coverage is above average, it is nowhere nearest the highest in September (9/50) or October 2018 (14/51).
In Eurasia, levels are lower than average (33/50 in September) or just above average (22/51 in October).
It shows that isolated reports of local extremes does not necessarily mean the whole northern hemisphere is suffering.
On 12 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) GFS still showing an cool easterly developing in the last third of the month, mainly affecting the SE, briefly milder then a polar maritime outbreak ( which GFS is usually quite hopeless with) at the end of the month.
On 11 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 damp from overnight rain and no frost, followed by an intermittently sunny day with a very light S’ly breeze and a max temp of 9˚, stars out among the clouds in the evening, 3˚ at 9.30pm, frost in the offing.
On 11 Nov 2018, Lorraine Lister NZ wrote:
@Gerry Surrey-Kent Border. Why shouldn't the police arrest them? It was a pretty sick thing to do, not at all amusing given the way people died in the Grenfell towers fire. Civil liberties are one thing Gerry but burning that effigy shows a complete disregard for the feelings of those who survived the fire and those who lost family and friends. If that happened in NZ the public would be right behind police arresting the party goers.
On 10 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Blustery day yesterday lots of heavy torrential showers and the wind also picked up for a time calming down in the eve. Yellow warnings wind n rain for most of the country. Max 10 by day 5/6 overnight feeling like 2 deg.
On 10 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, mostly sunny all day with a great amount of blue sky, accompanied by a light S’ly, relief after so much greyness this week, max temp 9˚ and staying that way right until 9pm, by which time we had the next batch of heavy rain pass on its way north. Beebomet is suggesting that temps will stay mild for the foreseeable future, we’ll see…
On 10 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
lack of knowledge Gerry, arrest is on ‘reasonable grounds to suspect’....not when a definite charge is guaranteed so it’s not wrongful arrest, that’s why they won’t sue.....just a point of law there and not to push out incorrect info out there.
Now back to weather ahead. Very mild air to come with wave activity punching into the pole. This will support northern blocking down the line which with a wild jetstream could get very interesting.
On 10 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
The problem I have with the Grenfell Tower larkers is that they were arrested and then the police looked for something to charge them with. That is a total abuse of authority by the police and I hope they sue the crap out of them for wrongful arrest. This follows the same path as their recent calamities with suspected phone-hacking and kiddie-fiddling where innocent people were arrested and bailed while they tried to find evidence to convict. As usual those responsible for this don't pay with their careers and have their pensions cut. There have been 23 days with no sunspots. Will it make a whole month? 60% spotless this year and should top 200 spotless days. Did the sun charge up the wind and rain yesterday. After some rain middle of the day come evening the wind was battering from the east and overnight there was some heavy rain. Dawned sunny and dry so far but rain looks on the way on the radar. Not as Wunderground forecast said last night.
On 09 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30 and a wild old SSE’ly gale blowing all day, mostly dry though with only a few spots of rain in the evening but looking at the radar we’re in for another drooking overnight, while my wife has been reporting brilliant sunshine and warm temps from Paris today. 10˚ here now at 10pm & still howling.
On 09 Nov 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
Interesting news recently about those people arrested for burning an effigy of a tower block during the Guy Fawkes celebrations. It touches on the debate in this blog about the silencing of AGW voices.
It is sociopathic to believe that good censorship is needed to protect us all from some threat or other. However well meaning the intention, it inevitably leads to groupthink and the suppression of all dissenting opinion. And Pareto's wolves then get the chance to tighten their grip on society, because ordinary people have been encouraged to switch off their brains and let authorities do the thinking for them.
We have nothing to fear from open debate, just as we should tolerate idiots who cause offence by burning models. Many MPs were appalled by this "crime" even though no one was harmed. Many of the same MPs have voted for wars of aggression in which hundreds of thousands of innocents have perished.
So let that fellow post rubbish about TSI whilst ignoring Extreme UV variation.
On 08 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, light touch of frost here and there, sunny morning with an odd shower, S - SE’ly wind, max temp 8˚, cloudy afternoon, rain starting after 7pm and getting heavier as the evening progressed an temps actually moving up a notch to 9˚ by 9pm. == Re autumn colours, Gerry, today we remarked how long they have lasted this year, what happens most years with us is that the autumn gales rip them off the trees before they’ve had much time to turn. I presume it is the mild weather with just the odd cold night that has helped that pleasant (to us) process.
On 08 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Contrasts between yesterday and today. The wet made it warmer such that my heating was rarely on last night. I fixed the problem with my wireless temp controller so that this morning with some ice on the roof, the bedroom rads were lovely and warm. JG Speedfit's wireless control system is good but for setup the online videos are a must instead of the manual. A lovely morning of blue sky after the rain and with the Autumn colours the train ride was very pretty. Sun beaming down in the City at a cool 56f. 4 feet of snow has arrived in Morocco and caught out the authorities. Perhaps they need a better forecaster.
On 07 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 and yet another day when it stayed at that all day, strong SE’ly wind and beefing up during the afternoon when we also had some heavy bursts of rain, into the evening as well, real dreich November day except for the mild temps. However, by 9.30pm the clouds started to clear, the wind had abated and temp was 8˚ and heading further downwards by the feel of it.
On 07 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A lot more heavy torrential rain on the 6th a mildish 12/13 deg. Temp. dropping after the last heaviest showers around 4pm and around 6 deg. Overnight. A mostly dry day improving with a glimpse or 2 of sun this afternoon dropping noticeably colder on the way back from a walk/jog with the tiny one and glad I had her clear raincover mostly zipped up on the pram and her winter gear on as the wind was cold enough on my ears to sting should have worn a coat with the jumper but made me walk faster, good to get out as looks like more rain and wind incoming end of the week. 2 deg. feeling like -1 at 9.44pm light se'ly wind, looks like scattered showers overnight.
On 07 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID (Yorkshire ) With the skeptic approach I have to GFS, nonetheless the latest run suggests that an easterly flow will establish over northern Britain by the 23rd of this month. You may just be proved correct.
On 07 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Some heavy rain overnight and still lingering a bit this morning. The heavy cloud has passed away and now the sun is shining. 59F in the City. The UK gets most of its colder weather after the turn of the year. The big one in 1963 arrived in January so lots of time yet. Varenholtz & Luening have a report looking at evidence of the Medieval Warm Period in the Southern Hemisphere to say that it was global. The warmists led by Mann claim that it was a Northern Hemisphere event only following the evisceration of the MWP removing hookey stick creation. On the subject of warmists coming to comment here - if they are blocked or removed then how does this forum differ from the Guardian's Comment Macht Frei or any of the warmist blogs that delete and block anything they don't like? What have we to fear? The MWP and other known warm periods will always hole their CO2 fantasy, hence Mad Mikey Mann's attempts to remove them.
On 07 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Stephen see my post from 29th of October. I haven't changed my view from then and by start of winter I meant 1st of December. Not only are we at cycle 24 minimum we are entering into a longer period of solar decline.
On 07 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN PARKER:
Well, there doesn't seem to be much of a chance of a 'beast from the east' in the immediate future, but let's remember that the cold of 2010 didn't kick in until the end of November. I have also noticed that GFS is 'backtracking' on the extent of penetration of warm air from the south and is now going for more of a returning polar maritime air. I'm sure David will have his own views as well.
On 07 Nov 2018, Andy B 45D wrote:
Hi Piers
I see you at the talk given by Professor Valentina Zharkova She has put the cat among the pigeons now , what was your take on her theory and what was your question to her , the audio was poor and it was difficult to understand it
for those who haven't seen it yet here's the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_yqIj38UmY
On 06 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 and again staying at that all day, foggy morning, somewhat clearer in the afternoon but grey was the them of the day. Stiff SE’ly wind, getting even stronger in the evening.
On 06 Nov 2018, stephen parker wrote:
Where's David from Yorkshire? im predicting another beast from the east!
On 06 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Ski resorts open a month early - presumably not all the snow has melted. Closer to home it has got warmer again although it is dull and wet. The up side is a saving on heating of course. A lot of fog around this morning and some rain but we got our chainsaw assessment completed.
On 06 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Both warmists and coolists are predicting that their theory will account for the jetstream going into bigger slower, longer lasting loops, giving us longer periods of one kind of weather or the other. So the backstops are there already.
On 05 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A fair amount of rain since last post.
On 05 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 - and for the rest of the day right up to 9.30pm. SW’ly wind all day but feeling mild and pleasant even though the sky was grey bar a glimpse of sunshine around 2pm.
On 05 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
www.winterhighland.info has links to webcams in three Scottish ski areas of zglencoe, Cairngorm and Nevis Range.
Pretty much all snow has melted, showing bare mountain sides in early November.
Visual data, I believe, is worth examining.
Just a normal dusting which happens regularly in the Scottish mountains above 1000m..
On 05 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Weather from Switzerland in early November - see www.meteo.ch if you say I am lying:
1) Day temperatures up to 20C and higher where the Foehn blows into various valleys. Snow melt will be rapid indeed.
2) Snowfall only above 2000-2300m where precipitation occurs.
Lows around 8-12C overnight.
Next four days, relatively mild, hardly the advance of Siberian cold. Snowfall will continue in the high mountains....
I believe data is considered important at this site.....
The data suggests big snowdepths at high altitude, little to no snow lower down....
On 05 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Glenn, if you are such a coward you suggest kicking people without naming them, you do not add much moral value.
Piers has a solid physics underpinning his work and there is no doubt that extreme event prediction is his forte.
However, extreme events do not necessarily shape interdecadal trends.
I am 100% certain that the recent snow in the Pyrenees and Alps is no more unlikely than the storm on 15th July 1981, which caused sheep losses to Austrian farmers like the recent event did to the Basques. There was also snow down to lower altitudes at this time of year in 1981, but it happened further east.
The great depths of snow being talked of are at high altitude (>2500m) and if you look at webcams today, snow is retreating in many ski resorts well up the mountains, as is normal for early November.
Last winter, everyone was screaming about the snow event in January, when it was merely a 20 year event rather less serious than the February 1999 event. Read at slf.ch if you w
On 05 Nov 2018, Glenn wrote:
I am getting the feeling there is at least one warmist on this board (not going to mention any names) of course. If there is then they are traitors and need to be rooted out and kicked off. Warmists are a cancer to the world, especially the UK which suffers most from their policies than anywhere else on the entire planet. They want to destroy our western living standards and so far they have made a pretty damn good job of it.
On 05 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK(Berks)
Not me that needs your 'temporal charity', I'm just an observer and commentator, not a primary researcher. 5 years would probably clearly indicate which way it is going to go and we'll be almost halfway into the '12 years to save the planet' 'warmista' latest doom mongering scenario. We'll also be well into the 'coolista' prediction zone too. Their views are so diametrically divergent that they can't both be wrong---unless of course there's no real change at all.
On 05 Nov 2018, eastside wrote:
I see the great British bollox co is at it again this morning, and just for a change it's not Harrabin!
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181102-what-can-i-do-about-climate-change
Propaganda, makes me ashamed of the UK, - no suprise they censored Orwell when AF came out.
It comes with of course one of the stupidest, most worn out & racist arguments known, skillfully dressed up to look respectable..
"Nicholas’s study concluded that having fewer children is the best way to reduce your contribution to climate change, with almost 60 tonnes of CO2 avoided per year."
In Europe it's well known the aging population and the low birthrate is one of the most serious threats to the economic viability of the EU area.
I could go on.
These kind of articles are always pedalled by the rich (some of them being aryans eh?), against the poor & disfavoured.
Squealer was able to fool the animals again & restore the peace state of the animal farm.
Squealer censored concerns and rumors..
On 04 Nov 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
Also on IWO Aurora alert, they report confirmed reports of Northern Lights in the NW of the country.
On 04 Nov 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
No Indian Summer here, just plain ole cloudy drizzyly mizzly showery humid 9 deg with no sun but a bit of warm air.
On 04 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, light S’ly breeze, cloudy morning but sunny afternoon with a max temp of 11˚, a few stars out in the evening but mostly cloudy, 8˚ at 10pm.
On 04 Nov 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
Thanks, Ron. Happy to give you another 5 years or so. It is climate after all.
On 04 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED; I did say, at the time, from 2017 and we are still in the early stage of that. If what you predict does come into effect it should be observable and clear, with at least some indications by/from 2020. If not, then the solarist-coolists are going to have to reappraise their position. Did you note on the BBC story about the extremes of the last 10 years, they did not mention the coldest December for 100 years ( as predicted by Piers well beforehand)?
On 04 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
So what drives/triggers El Nino Nick? Let me guess man or cows. It has a big impact on global weather and climate. Sort him out Piers!
On 04 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
Solarists as you put it do not have to rethink..not yet and probably not for few years yet (however, we should see some big Non CO2 effects over next 3 years). Cycle 24 Minima we begin to enter, not in it yet and to likely, as cycle 23 Minima 2007/10, to have 3 years of it. This year cyclewise probably relates to 2007..thus we look to have a deeper minima this time. With cycle 25 to be of Dalton or even Maunder proportions I believe the cooling will be pronounced. 20th century cycles were pretty darn active..
On 04 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK( Berks) I certainly did and that was the question I was basically asking the 'solarists/coolists' !!. I think I said
something like 'if it doesn't become apparent from 2017 onwards to, then they'll have to rethink their position'. In the meantime the Arctic ice did not melt in 2013 and the Maldives are still above water.
On 04 Nov 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
David, you certainly won't find proof if you're going to select a few weather anecdotes over long term global datasets. The issue with your El Niño argument is that it would suggest a fall in ocean heat content. The reality is that the ENSO events are barely noticeable on an inexorable rise in ocean heat content.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
No escape for you there I'm afraid. And please don't cite underwater volcanoes, they may be important in their immediate vicinity but in the grand scheme of things they too are negligible.
Ron, I recall you posting many years ago (at least 5 or 6), that if there wasn't cooling 'soon' the 'solarists' would need to rethink. Solar activity, integrated over the cycle, has been declining for the last 50 years. How much more time do you need to tell and what are you going to use as a measure?
On 03 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, cloudy & windy from the SW, dry after the overnight rain but on the whole a cloudy day with more rain in the evening, max temp 12˚, cold S’ly wind all day, 10˚ at 11pm. == Ben F, 18˚ is amazing, but that stretch of the N Coast is not called the Scottish Riviera for nothing!
On 03 Nov 2018, Fred wrote:
In 2010 Piers released in September his thoughts of coldest December in 100 years.....major hit. I don’t know what he may say about this winter...but there are no ‘public warnings’ and thus I suspect more polar vortex displacements which means down south the real won’t get to us
On 03 Nov 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
Well a fab half term break with the kids a good amount of starry clear cold nights with frost the following mornings, some -2 and nice fresh mostly dry cold days, some cold showers on occasions. Yesterday afternoon a change in some heavier rain and blustery S'ly showers bringing up the temp. Gradually from a cold morning to milderish overnight, although in saying that the 11 deg reached had a real feel of only 6 deg. The increase in humidty to 100% most likely playing its part for warmth increase as the nught went on. 14 deg with a real feel of 11 deg Again 100% cloudy 82% humidity and showery today at 1.45pm with a light ssw'ly making for a milder than the last week kinda day :)
On 03 Nov 2018, Ben Farrington -sub wrote:
No chance of snow or very cold weather today, currently 18 degrees and sunny well above average for this area, NW Moray. Really looking forward to see how WA November forecast pans out, especially if you look at all the other long range models for this month, could be a make or break...
On 03 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Quoting the BBC as source of information brings to mind the words 'straw' and 'clutching'. The Biased Broadcasting Corporation - a close friend of the fact free Guardian - is never to be trusted. I was going on to add 'on climate' but I realised I was correct to stop at that point. While Rhys makes a valid point, remember we are supposed to be in the warmest time for the planet according to the alarmists so the first snow in October on the northern coast of France at places such as Le Touquet in over 100 years would appear to me to be at odds with their claim. I don't believe that the variation in TSI is the sole effect of the sun. There are other elements to its effect that we might understand better if there was the funding that trying to prove global warming gets. Cold and frosty yesterday but dry and sunny, so ideal for our second day chainsawing. Cloud came over during the night so there is ice but no frost.
On 03 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID/NICK
Time will tell and there are only three options: cooler, warmer, no change. GFS now going for two weeks of mild Atlantic weather with a blast of Arctic maritime plunging down over much of Europe, largely missing us but perhaps clipping East Anglia and thereafter more mild but calm weather over the western British Isles and Ireland. However GFS, as we know is crap at predicting location and duration of Arctic outbreaks.
On 02 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, frosty but not as much as on Wednesday, followed by a splendid sunny morning with a max temp of 8˚, light W’ly breeze, clouding up in the afternoon, rain starting at 10pm and the wind turning into the SW and powering up, 5˚ at 11pm.
On 02 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
El nino not el Mini. That's a different phenomenon.
On 02 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Nick is there any actual data set that can prove this either way? No is the answer, however it is not just local weather events that point to a cooling trend. Take the USA winter extremes over the last 10 years, Greece, Spain, UK, France, Germany. Locations much further south than that too. I could go on. Any spikes in recent years are purely down to a record el mini, which by its very nature transfers heat and energy from sea to land. Will greenhouse gases mitigate some of the natural cooling? Possibly but that is open to debate.
On 02 Nov 2018, M Lewis wrote:
I tend to agree with Nick. There is no sign yet of any long term Global climate cooling.
See BBC News headline reports today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266
On 02 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK (Berks) The Minoan, Roman and Medieval warm periods were certainly not caused by industrial scale AGW and Leif Kullman has shown that trees grew at substantial higher altitudes in the Caledonides than they do now. The Norse graves in Greenland were very unlikely to have been dug in permafrost. So we can rule anthropogenic CO2 etc, warming in these contexts and just ask are the same factors that caused these warming periods and the cooling of the LIA still operating at present?
On 02 Nov 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
Ron, I said that the solar cycle (by which I meant primarily the 11 year cycle) doesn't correlate with the lower atmosphere temperature. That's a matter of observation though since TSI seems to vary by less than 1.5 W/m2 in 1360 or so it seems likely that its effect would be swamped by other variables. That's not at all the same as saying that the variation in level of TSI has no effect on global warmth; it seems inevitable that it will since it's an input. Its just that it's variance is relatively small compared to other forcing such as the current level of greenhouse gases. Minoan, Román, MWP etc? I haven't a clue; have you? Most of the data I have seen (and I expect what there is is not very good) suggest that the global averages were lower than now. As I've said before I see no need to impute global trends entirely to one driver.
David, I primarily look at UAH data (averaged over several years). What is your basis for seeing cooling?
On 01 Nov 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, raining steadily until 9, after which the rain front slowly cleared and we had a lovely sunny day with a light W’ly breeze and a max temp of 7˚, excellent for a 1st November. We have a large number of flowers left in the garden, haven’t had such a show for a while, they’ll start getting hit by the frost now. 0˚ at 9pm, car roof already very frosty, another ground frost coming I’ll bet.
On 01 Nov 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Warmer today but very wet at times as rain moved up from the SSW during the course of the day. Luckily they was a dry spell later on to allow my chainsaw course to go out in the woods for some practical cutting exercises.
On 01 Nov 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Fred, I said nothing about Piers, did I?
What has happened recently is a chunk of arctic air came south along Western Europe, not Eastern Europe.
We can scream about cold in UK, France, Switzerland, even Morocco but there was no cold snap in the Balkans, eastern Austria, Greece etc. It was localised and balanced out by normal temperatures elsewhere. A lot of rain for Italy but they probably need it.
I have seen much more snow on the Scottish mountains at this time from my climbing days 1986-93: just a little dusting right now. Snow has come late October/early November three times the past decade in Switzerland, it usually melts again lower down.
I was still picking tomatoes grown outdoors the last week of October, something I have done three times in six years.
This summer was just similar to 1976, a once in 50 year event.
As for October snow, I did my Ski Club Reps training in Tignes in Dec 1990 and our instructor analysed a snowpit and pointed out 'the October snow
On 01 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I don't doubt that the Earth has been through a (natural) warming period, however I do not believe that that is the case now. That's my my point. We are now entering into a cooling cycle.
On 01 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID: Nick is of course entitled to his opinions, but I'd like to hear how he supports his arguments in respect of the causation of climate change now and in the pre-industrial past.
On 01 Nov 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Where is the evidence the Earth is still warming?
On 01 Nov 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK(Berks) I abhor the hyperbole on both sides of the climate debate, but try to keep an open mind. So, if solar cyclicity has little or no effect on the lower atmosphere and our climate with in it, what do you think is driving the current warming, and is it the same causative factor/s that resulted in the Minoan. Roman, Medieval warm periods and the Little Ice Age?
On 01 Nov 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Rainy start at least it’s warmer (6c at0630). October was an average month for here, 48mm rain mainly in first 2 weeks . Warm at times but a cold end with a few days of frost -2.1c the lowest wWinds were Sw at start to N Nw at end of month. I recall that Piers said the odd numbered solar cycle would give some colder winters so maybe this is one of them.
On 01 Nov 2018, Lorraine Lister wrote:
@Alex Hon Kuen Ho - Whilst the South Island was colder this past winter, there weren't many consistently very low temperatures. It wasn't an extreme winter, just colder than in recent years. Minus 11 and 12 are not literally unheard of, they just haven't occured much in recent winters. Places like Central Otago can have prolonged cold spells with permafrosts in a really cold winter like the one of 2009. Not sure what you mean by the media not reporting the cause of the Kaikoura quake.
On 31 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, first ground frost and quite hard & as expected, the nasturtiums outside took a hit, also the dahlias in our veg tunnel were black, foretaste of winter. SW’ly wind, slight drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon but mostly cloudy, max temp 8˚ and still 6˚ at 10pm.
On 31 Oct 2018, DaveT wrote:
She wants to go to Iceland in January to see the Aurora. OK... The Aurora is linked to the solar wind so I'm guessing an R5 period is the best time to go. Now which forecast should I buy?
On 31 Oct 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
Great news Gerry that The Guardian is ditching its Environment Blog. It was brimful of alarmist ridiculousness and patrolled by Activist nutjobs. Sites like Wikipedia have been captured by these fascists as well. Anyone who opposed the AGW dogma would be banished from the site. "Comment is Free" was such a joke. Typical Liberal hypocrites. They only allow free speech if you agree with them.
On 31 Oct 2018, Alex Hon Kuen Ho wrote:
If anyone did hear about the New Zealand Earthquake, that 6.2 was felt in my house in Wellington, but the most frightful one was the one in 2016 that happened at Kaikoura, the media reported it but decided not to report the cause of the quake. Also New Zealand has been getting temperatures that are literally unheard of -11 and -12 in the South Island during winter
On 31 Oct 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
"Hold that thought...NASA are saying our atmosphere is losing heat energy, contrary to what they have been saying for most of the last 30 years". Well, no, not if you're referring to global warming. The Mlynczak article refers to changes in the thermosphere, about 100—600 km up, which is of minuscule mass and practically irrelevant to changes in the stratosphere down. Don't take my word for it, look at the comments, especially that of Roy Spencer, in the corresponding discussion in WUWT. This is yet another example of Iceagenow misrepresentation and people leaping onto what they want to believe (or others to believe) instead of really trying to understand. The thermosphere temperature has always been highly correlated to the solar cycle whereas our part of the atmosphere hasn't. Recent local winter weather not withstanding, the earth continues to warm.
On 30 Oct 2018, C View wrote:
This from Spaceweather.com
The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.
“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”
Hold that thoughtN....NASA are saying our atmosphere is losing heat energy, contrary to what they have been saying for most of the last 30 years
On 30 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, showery and clammily cold, less sunny than yesterday with showers mainly in the morning, still a SE’ly breeze, max temp 6˚ and down to 0˚ by 9.30pm, could be the first ground frost tonight, the nasturtiums in the garden will be proof of that tomorrow morning. Having November forecast, we up here are prepared!
On 30 Oct 2018, Fred wrote:
Craig
Fair point, I don’t have Nov forecast but have all winter. I agree, this jetstream is getting WILDER!
On 30 Oct 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Fred - sure Rhys knows that I think comm was more about iceagenow.info which have a very hard focus on cold and snow but often don't follow up or put it in correct context. With the warmist hard focus on any heat as proof, it's an easy trap to fall into, however as you say Piers has said it is extremes at both ends due to the meandering jetstream. This current cold spell which has brought 3 frosts in a row with a 4th due tonight (unusual in recent years to get such a clumping) has the jet down in Africa. In fact the N hem/synoptics profile is quite tasty if cold is your thing. Very reminiscent of 62/63 although with the blocks in different places, but a long winter of ebb and flow portends. Nov 09 was wet & we know what followed. Sun has been blank for 12 days & notable the frosts/cold came with the full moon. Are lunar effects ascendant? Either way glad I knew this was headed our way late month. November forecast looks very interesting. SUBSCRIBE now & PREPARE
On 30 Oct 2018, Fred wrote:
Rhys
The point is Piers does state when there is exceptional heat....as it is indeed part of the LIA footprint with Wild Jetstream swings. The main point re the snow is how severe the storm was and he ‘calked it’. That’s the point....
On 30 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
From the sun and blue skies of yesterday it has been damp with some light drizzle and then cloudy today. Brought the temps up a bit and the wind seems to have changed round to the west. Will return home to a warm house as the CH was working this morning to take the chill off. Might have been better had I realised I had turned the thermostat down before turning the CH off in April.
On 30 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Well, after the hottest driest summer in the Alps, with all the glaciers down to ice, two days of snow and the usual suspects are screaming 'Ice Age'. Glaciers in Austria and Switzerland which usually offer 365 days a year ski-ing had to shut this summer due to heat. No reporting that at Ice Age Now....
Yes there has been very heavy snow above 2000m particularly along the Hauptkamm from Grand St Bernard across to the Engadin and further north from Andermatt across to Davos. The snow did fall locally below 1500m but webcams today show barely any snow in Grimentz and Zinal, Verbier and Klosters, resorts at 1150-1500m.
Above 1500m snow can fall pretty much any time from mid October to mid May. This is normal climate in those regions. It is also normal climate for snow below 2000m to melt again pretty quickly outside late November to early April.
Ice Age Now always squeals when it snows. It would have more cred if it followed up with how quickly the snowfall melted.
On 30 Oct 2018, eastside wrote:
If Piers' forecast call was for a cold snap at the end of October it was spot on.
Iceland started out with a horrible month.
So, adding to that we had so much rain that the water in our local lake, which totally dried up with the "scandinavian hot summer of 2018", was totally restored to its usual level within 3 wks.
That was after an indian summer 10day period mid month of 18C with gorgeous golden warmth, caused by a high drawing warm winds from the south.
It then suddenly went from late summer to winter in days!
Right now in the Baltic states we 1st had a storm which centred over Latvia then became slow almost stationary, followed by the inevitable high building over Scandinavia bringing biting easterly winds, which have now invaded pretty much all of continental Europe.
Temps are already rising from a low of -8 to what will be about +15C highs, so this episode is over.
However further east in URAL it's been a miserable Oct with early snow, & very weak sunlight.
What
On 29 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, hail & rain showers to begin with but then a reasonably dry and sunny day, max temp 8˚ with a SSE’ly wind bringing majestic towering clouds off the sea, showery again by evening, 5˚ by 9.30pm. == Geoff, don’t know that one, need to look it up.
On 29 Oct 2018, Geoff wrote:
...Thanks for the advice Gerry, I, for one, don't want to be caught short! Paddy, how about "The Sun Always Shines on T.V" by A-ha ! (Especially in AGW weather forecasts)
On 29 Oct 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
We are now arguably, at solar cycle minimum and with the ever increasing meanders of the jet, it will be a cold start to winter for Western Europe. If you want a relatively recent comparison, then 08/09 winter may be a close match, however I believe the true cold and snow will arrive in early January not February. I haven't bought a forecast, just my opinion.
On 29 Oct 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - I have been commenting during summer. Some lost or not published. Was abroad for 3 weeks in September so missed the storms luckily.
On 29 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
First windscreen scraping morning of the season. Would have been worse but for the clock change as come leaving time the side and rear windows had melted. Didn't like starting up either. Blue sky with the north wind persisting on keeping it chilly, especially out of the sun. Being out this evening, I will start the CH for tomorrow morning as it was a bit parky once out from under the duvet and blanket. Ron - you need to stock up on toilet rolls as we are the world's biggest importer of it and with the ports in chaos due to government stupidity, supplies will run short. Snow in Switzerland, Spain and Morocco - and all in the warmest year evah!
On 29 Oct 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Provisional October 2018 analysis for SE England; Av day temps 15.7c (down 0.8c from Oct 2017), av night temps 8.2c (down from 10.4c Oct 2017). Sat 27th October "coldest October day for 10 years". Precipitation for 11/31 days. Warmest day was 13th October where temperatures reached 24c, coldest was 27th Oct where temperatures struggled to exceed 7c. Heavy snow 27-28th October across Scotland and N England, down to lower levels in some areas.
On 29 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
A light, but distinct covering of snow this morning, here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire and this much lower down than predicted by standard forecasts.
On 29 Oct 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
A cold calm night Sunday , our coldest this autumn at -2c at 630. Looks like a dry sunny day ahead.
On 28 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, fewer showers than yesterday and a bit more sunshine, N’ly wind all day, 7˚ max temp, wet evening but still a bit of moonlight, 2˚ at 10pm.
On 28 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, fewer showers than yesterday and a bit more sunshine, N’ly wind all day, 7˚ max temp, wet evening but still a bit of moonlight, 2˚ at 10pm.
On 28 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Frosty start -2 at 5.30 a.m clearing with the sunshine by around 10.00 A cold day max 6/7 deg with a real feel of less but not as cold as yesterday with that N'ly breeze, stupidly worked in it on n off all day and wished had put leggings under jeans as froze to the bone cold, where as today the sun did keep it from feeling as raw. Another clear starry night 0 deg at 9.30pm A few counties further Nth had a dusting of snow yesterday.
On 28 Oct 2018, Fred wrote:
I bought the winter forecast......buy it is my advice...we have entered a new era and it will become more and more important to see what’s likely to come.
On 28 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID ( Yorkshire ) Wondered where you were, have you come in on the North Wind!!?? Aye, it's got this early/mid 80s feel about things. Brexit notwithstanding, I've been stockpiling coal and wood.
On 28 Oct 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Well done piers. Halloween and especially bon fire night used to be cold in my childhood. This year has been a total weather reset to 30/40 Years ago. The warming period is over. Start of the big one this Ron
On 28 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
First significant snowfall in the Alps from Western Austria through Switzerland: snow down to well under 1500m as you go west and north (e.g. resort level snow in Andermatt, Muerren), higher snowline in Arlberg, Zermatt.
Indications are for more snow through the beginning of the week. Interesting to see if it will last and if so, down to what altitude.
On 28 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
More cloud came over yesterday evening bringing some drizzle and light rain so that walking back to the station from The Last of the Summer Beer festival I got a bit damp. Sausage and chips helped and just got home before some more rain started. Warmed myself by the fire. Cold north wind has continued into this morning bringing heavier rain showers. A chilly 43F which is made much cooler by the wind. Approaching noon it has brightened up. Snow pics in the paper today and reports of snowfall in Turkey, Finland, Norway and a Vermont ski resort has opened earlier than ever before. All still in October and all when we are not supposed to know what snow was. The Guardian is dumping its science and environment blogging. Under the Comment Macht Frei policy, the comments were all made in a vacuum of alarmism and consensus so maybe even they got bored with it all. Won't be missed along with other alarmist pages that have gone 'dark' as the techies say.
On 27 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, frost on car roof & evidence of overnight sleet showers, another day of sunshine and showers with a stiff N’ly wind, snow on the Grampian mountains clearly visible, max temp 6˚, feeling slightly milder though with 3˚ at 9pm. == Go for it, Maria! Life without music is like a dinner without cheese, as the French might say :-). Bill S, how about Autumn in New York?
On 27 Oct 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// is this the start of a very cold winter got me concerned now for those sleeping rough on the streets- here’s to Jeremy if he can do something. So 17 degrees yesterday dropping to 6 degrees today or thereabouts. Sea temperature at 15 makes it interesting - tomorrow high winds sleet rain and hail - Channel Islands
On 27 Oct 2018, eastside wrote:
Can confirm the cold snap hinted at by PC.
A sharp change in temperature from last week's very warm 15C-18C, to this night F8-10 winds direct from northerly arctic air, accompanied by heavy sleet and some snow showers and a deep low arriving in the central Baltic.
This is the end of OCTOBER, so rather early (although back in Ural we had snow 2 weeks ago).
The wind is howling tonight at 1C.
The UK is a very small tile in a very large northern hemisphere, so never has been very relevant.
Spare a thought for the icelanders who have pretty much awful weather for the last month, while central Europe stayed quite balmy.
The good news,- despite pegging at -4C a few nights, it's gonna get warmer+calmer up here towards the middle-end of next week.
Don't forget the ESTONIA.
It went down in weather which was very similar to this night.
BYE.
On 27 Oct 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
Superb cold clear dayA great day for a walk with dog. Fresh N wind going light this evening only 2c this morning . It’s beeen dry these last few weeks since return from Scotland and according to my rain gauge only 38mm this month to date. Such is the regional variations in the UK. For myself Paddy, Maria, Dusty Springfield’s “Summer is over”always strikes a chord with me on an autumn day. Maybe we should have a WeatherAction top 10.
On 27 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
black ice and a dusting of snowflakes on it down here at 140 metres. Wind dropping now, so looks like frost tonight. Stoves and fires on then. Standard models now backing off snow at Halloween but still chilly. Nothing exceptional, just a reminder that winter is now with us.
On 27 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Change has arrived down south too. A damp start yesterday with some rain but then clearing during the day but much colder than of late. I am glad the racing was last weekend as this morning there was the first frost since the start of the month. I am ready for Winter having just had my chimney swept this morning. Another nice sunny day but much colder than last weekend.
On 27 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last few days progressively cooler and a few light showers but mostly sunshine and dropping temps. Beautiful cold sunny morn. with some cloud about some cumulus moving in 5 deg with a real feel of 1 at 11.30 a.m N'ly wind making it feel very very parky, eek winters coming😊 Ps fab piece of music Paddy, makes me want to dust off the ole guitar!-)
On 27 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye, another good one for Piers.
On 26 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, dry at first with a strong N’ly wind, then torrential rain for an hour and showers off & on all day, feeling cold with a max temp of 7˚, occasional short sunny spells but most definitely the end of summer, 2˚ at 9pm. Yellow warning for snow & ice overnight for us, the cold has arrived 2 days later than Piers forecast but boy, it came, that’s accurate enough for me from more than a month ahead.
On 26 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Snow showers settling down to 5oo metres and sleet here at 140 metres in the heavier ones. Winter has started. The old Celts had it about right with Halloween being the start of winter.
On 25 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, a change in the air to a more wintery smell but not yet proper cold, still a mostly W’ly light breeze but slowly nudging into the NW. Like so many recent days sunny in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon with a bit of rain after 4pm. Max temp 14˚, down to 9˚ by 10pm with the moon shining through the clouds, promise of a colder day tomorrow and quite showery.
On 25 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Another nice day once the fog had gone or been left behind by the train. Only 57F in the City so far so not abnormally warm. No sign of the cold as yet. The hard working Paul Homewood has a report published by the GWPF that shows that there is no increase in extreme weather as claimed by the alarmists. The weather varies of course but no great trend exists. The sun has clocked up another 7 days with no spots. The spotless spells are quite long and the spots that do appear are quite small.
On 24 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, amazing sunrise with the sun illuminating the dense cloud cover from below, same at sunset but even more spectacular, W’ly wind with occasional beefy gusts, cloudy morning, sun out by midday with a max temp of 15˚, still & muggy afternoon with midges out in force, windy again later, 12˚ at 9pm. Cold snap a bit behind but Greenland HP looks like moving into position. Autumn Leaves/Les Feuilles d’Automne (jazz standard) report: over half of them gone here, Maria.
On 24 Oct 2018, Steve,Dorset UK sub wrote:
Hi all instead of getting the 45day forecast all i get is the buy a forecast lists, nothing else, what is happening has piers gone on safari is it going to be a hot november, should i get new shorts.
On 24 Oct 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Steven Wright,
Nothing on the board re Nov 45 day yet.
Piers should use this blog to announce forecast editions. It's all a bit of a guessing game otherwise. Every month.
I personally don't mind these delays, but keeping in touch with your customers and letting them know about them, is a standard business practice. And a kinder approach.
On 24 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Maria, there was a very good crowd basking in the Autumn sun to watch the racing. And another lovely day today with blue sky and sun all the way. Last night was football at my local ground. A good match, good win and a lovely moon up above. If the temps dip from tomorrow then it will be time to turn on the CH for the winter. It is a shame that Robert of iceagenow falls for the Madden snow claims every year as it discredits the site. Apparently, London is due snow in the next week in his claims published in the Daily Star.
On 24 Oct 2018, steven wright wrote:
has anyone got the 45 day forecast for November yet
On 24 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
M Lewis: your 1981/2 analogy is certainly consistent with snowfall in the Alps at the end of October. I spent the 1982/3 year in Austria and was told by locals of the lengthy and cold 1981/2 winter when valley level snow arrived end of October and 1 metre had fallen by November 7th.
This year the cold snow may be a bit further west in Switzerland, even suggestions of widespread snow in Central France, but the principle appears the same.
2*18.6 = 37.2 years for a double solar/lunar beat. 1981+37=2018.....
On 23 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Light but more widespread frost Monday morning feeling chill but giving way to a pleasant day with good sunshine. Nice day to get out and away from work for a day, still a little of the beautiful autumn colours around but we are not far away from bare trees now, some massive conkers this year on the ground too! Not as cold this morning but a cold breeze present max daytime temp a cool 11 /12 deg. 7 now at 11pm feels cool and a light breeze ongoing ...Racing sounds good too Gerry, been to a couple of races years ago and amazing to watch the skill on the track. Must admit do like Bikes has been about 14 years since I last went on the back of one!-)
On 23 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, windy from the W but feeling mild, cloudy morning, sun coming out after midday and giving us yet another warm day with a max temp of 17˚, still 15˚ by 10pm, waiting for the cold blast.
On 23 Oct 2018, Fred wrote:
M Lewis and Ron. I follow the deep solar minima theory, we enter a true Grand Minima and Piers has said the LIA Footprint is evident...and grows. So here’s my thoughts...a winter to match a 20th century great within the next 3 years...could be this one, could be all 3. Compared to 2007...11 yr cycle means this year comparable, and we are already well below that year and headed lower. We know what happened 08/09/10. Watch how this winter develops.....synoptics of very rare viewing
On 23 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
M.LEWIS:& FRED; Aye looks like a cold spell Halloween to Guy Fawkes Night and nothing very warm thereafter. GFS is now predictiNG cold easterlies settling in over Southern Scotland for a while with some incursion into N.E Scotland. Always cynical about GFS. Yup Piers has called it right yet again.
On 23 Oct 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Fred and Ron. I would suggest that the UK is long overdue a Lorna Doone "Great Winter".
However, typically, when deep cold air mass has become established across UK and Western Europe well before Christmas, it does not normally last beyond the third or fourth week of January. I'm expecting a winter like 1981-82 when the UK had record low Siberian temperatures by December!
On 23 Oct 2018, Fred wrote:
The end of October arctic blast it must be said will have an impressive cold pool shifting south enveloping Scandinavia, us and parts of Western Europe. So if a proper arctic blast (with no mention of record cold) was forecast then it looks to be a very good call indeed, and I suspect Piers has made that call. I’m going to purchase Piers’ winter forecast today, I have a view of a very cold and snowy December and early January.
On 22 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell and followed by a very sunny morning with a strong W’ly breeze which increased considerably in strength in the afternoon, max temp 12˚, slightly less sunny in the afternoon and evening, still 11˚ at 9.30pm.
On 22 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
RHYS: these polar maritime outbreaks seldom last a week, but such a large blocking high forming so early is interesting. Is it a harbinger of something more persistent later in the winter? There's been some talk of comparisons with 1962/3, but if I remember correctly the blocking extended from Greenland to northern Fennoscandia from late December onwards.
On 22 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Ron
Out of interest, the BBC weather maps are predicting a massive Atlantic blocking high from Greenland to the tropics, from US East Coast to West of Ireland, thus ushering in N to Nw flows of cold air through Britain to the alps, positing two days of resort level snow in St Moritz and four to five days on the mountains. Temperatures 10-12C below normal but returning to normal next week.
Snow maps are suggesting snow along the continental divide from Chamonix along the Rhone valley and across to the Engadin, similarly on the Italian side.
I am no expert on historical pressure charts, but I cannot remember that sort of total blocking Atlantic high in October and wonder how long it might last if it actually formed.
On 22 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Congratulations, Maria. That must be so nice. What a lovely weekend. I was actually getting hot standing in the sun watching them race round Chesson's Drift and along the Dover Slope yesterday. I had taken plenty of layers ready for a cold Sat night but it was quite nice sitting out watching the moon and Mars, listening to owls and the musician in the bar, while my boeuf bourginon cooked on my Cobb. Retired to my tent to read before turning in. Quite warm so went for a thinner PJ top. Was expecting some mist yesterday morning but was clear and sat in the sun having breakfast ready for the start of the track action. Final race event of 2018 was lit up by the youngsters (10-11) on their 50 & 70cc machines. Superb racing by our future stars. At home today and it is another lovely one with a bit more breeze than over the weekend.
On 21 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The see-saw of temps again from chilly to a mild 18 deg on Saturday a great day for working hard whilst the weather good, mildish overnight again then showery to begin today (Sunday) light drizzle a little short blustery spell rain more or less gone just before midday and nice enough afternoon but a cold breeze caught me out in my tshirt and although hot from working hard I decided a jumper might be a better idea as the chill in the air signalling a change to follow shortly. Clear parky 5 deg feels like 3 and dew point 2 deg just b4 midnight. Tiny one said mum mum today, first proper word totally chuffed can't stop smiling 😁
On 21 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
A remarkable 14˚C at 7.30, and from there onwards temps only went down, quite a bit of rain between 9.30-11 but then clearing and brightening up with a good bit of sunshine illuminating the clouds, though feeling cooler as the afternoon progressed, the wind having turned from the SW into the W, 6˚ at 9.30pm.
On 21 Oct 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Hesdin area of Pas D ' Calais,there has been no proper rain for all summer and Autumn ,the ground is so dry that the smaller streams are drying up,I keep checking the W/A forecast and it's perfectly correct for N/W France 'fine and dry ,cold nights',I need to fill up the birdbaths every day for the wildlife.
On 21 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Full moon on Wednesday, so I'm expecting clear nights and frosts for a few days.
On 21 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY, yes remarkably frost free and mild so far. Going to get quite warm on Tuesday-Wednesday, so Thursday might come as a shock.
On 20 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, overcast and foggy but brightening up by 10am, followed by an amazingly warm day with a SW’ly breeze and a max temp of 18˚, even 20˚ further inland and still 11˚ by 10pm. Back from holiday near Genova, Italy, where it was still 30˚ on occasion, expected to be hit by a wall of cold on our return but not so. Still have a few cucumbers in veg tunnel & nasturtiums not hit by frost yet, which is remarkable.
On 20 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks for clearing the air, Piers. These reports, as I suggested, give fake news a bad name, I am cynical enough to believe that, once more, dark propaganda has been aimed against you. We get the weather we get but what we seldom get from the MSM is the truth.
On 20 Oct 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
Citizens! Thank you for interesting informative comments. Further to media statements about aspects of our October forecast we have NOT stated that October would have coldest anything. When quotes or attributions appear in media please note the headlines often refer to claims of others rather than our forecasts. It should be noted too that some journalists know that we prefer to be left out of articles if our forecast (essential points only) widely differs from the thrust of the article. +=+=+=+=+ On archived forecasts please be aware that anyone who subscribes to any forecast has immediate access to all previous forecasts of that country in the access box. The general archive also has past forecasts but its load-up is done in batches so may not be up to date at any one moment. PC
On 19 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
I think the prediction of a record cold minimum, unless we hear differently from Piers, is either a deliberate journalistic distortion or just very sloppy journalism.
On 19 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The clear skies have brought a chilly night with some lingering mist this morning. Not frosty though. In the City it has reached 58F so far so on the cool side. Going for a winter sleeping bag this weekend with warm PJs but i think I might also take thinner ones as I might get too warm. Certainly had it colder in October when I went to the Weston Beach Race and there was frost on the tent and ice inside my van on the walls. Heated up my beer with hot water from the washblock to make it a drinkable temperature.
On 19 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
M LEWIS: I can assure you I am fully aware of the Scottish broadsheets supportive affinities with the agenda of the British Establishment, with the red top toilet papers being even worse. What I am concerned about here is that Piers is being misreported/ misinterpreted either deliberately or accidentally and unfairly to his discredit. Obviously the integrity of his full forecast must remain intact because of commercial sensitivities ,but is the claim of a record October minimum valid or just another example of bungled, incompetent journalism?
On 19 Oct 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Re: Ron and Daily Record red top comments. Unfortunately the UK broadsheet newspapers won't mention WeatherAction forecasts and Piers's long range weather predictions as they are closely allied to the good and the great of the Establishment and Science. It doesn't take rocket science to know that a colds snap is coming - given the cold this morning!
On 19 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
So Piers' predictions for a cold snap at the end of October have hit the Daily Record in Scotland, which I consider of of the red top toilet papers. I think they are perhaps mixing up some of the comments by Piers with those annually released at about this time by James Madden and Nathan Rao. Without giving away your commercial forecast too much, are you really predicting a record cold October minimum temperature, Piers ?
On 18 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Light frost the last 2 mornings and beautiful mornings too with a little mist and sun, the tiny one even loves the cold wrapped up all snug grinning a 4 tooth smile with her new winter hat and all in one on. So yeah nice by day cold mornings and nights, it is time to get a bit more ready for winter :D
On 18 Oct 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
On 17 Oct 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Thanks for that link @CraigM350 it works and i was able to access the archive, never the less i still cannot get at them via the heading along the top of the Webb page oddly
Really nice warm autumnal day here today, the sun was low and very bright, i am not complaining got some late bulbs planted today.
On 18 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE DEVINE: thanks I'll take a wee keek .Just shows you the variation within standard models. Trust in Piers .
On 18 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
When it comes to cherry-picking, just rolling out the Northern Hemisphere snow cover is right up there with having your cake and eating it. Just like a cold UK is not defined by the amount of snow but strangely by how cold it has been. Some of the most prolonged cold spells in the UK come from high pressure systems with no snowfall. And just to show how wrong snow cover can be, records tumbling across the US plains where temps are 12-20F below the norm and coldest daily high records going back to the 1930s are being broken.
On 18 Oct 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Ron - The GFS is probably the most pessimistic of all models for the cold northerly incursion. Have you seen the ECMWF version? The High Pressure is west of the UK with the eastern half of the nation chilled with strong N'ly winds by the end of the month. Cold see snow to lower levels in NE England & Scotland if that verifies.
On 18 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS now going for a cold snap starting at Halloween and going on into early November, so partly agreeing with the Piers quote in the Express about a cold snap at the end of October. Prior to that GFS is going for an almost Indian Summer scenario with a high over the UK. However since this cold snap is based on a prediction of a polar maritime outbreak by GFS, I hope they don't put the mawkers on it for Piers.
On 17 Oct 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Steve - not sure why you couldn't find it. Piers made a comment recently on how it was updated. It's under FORECASTS > ARCHIVE. Direct link === http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact46 === // Very grey here past few days with a very wet Sunday into Monday, probably had 35mm and four the first time in months precipitation is above average. Saturday had a high of ~23°C but felt really summery with dew points ~15°C, more so than when we reached ~24°C last weds with some lovely sun. Latest Gavs weather vid today showed the AO & NAO going negative so cooler ahead and the blocking in northern latitudes seems to promise well if cold and snow is what you are looking for (I don't see a 62-63, 46-47 but a long 1916-17 type that goes in and out could be in the offing. Can't wait to see the full winter forecast from Piers
On 17 Oct 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
I wanted to look at past weather that piers had published on his site evidently nothing is available other than buy, buy, or buy..
Cant get to see a thing shame really as i wanted to look back at past casts.
On 17 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
I will grant praise to the consistency of GFS predictions:
they are consistently crap at predicting the extent and duration of polar maritime outbreaks over the UK.
On 17 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
I really would caution commenters from cherry picking data to claim global truths.
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere on 16/10/2018 is normal, repeat, normal. There is currently more snow than average in eastern Canada, the Himalaya and Kazakhstan, less than normal in a line from Vancouver to Kamchatka and in central Siberia and in Norway.
I get my data from climate.rutgers.edu, which hosts the Global Snow Lab.
I know North Americans think they are the centre of the universe, but they are not. They are some data points on a global map.
Out of interest, data for week 39 (up to September 30th) shows NH snow cover of 8.81m sqkm, well less than 2017 or 2014 (both considerably more than 10m sqkm), less than 2015 and more than 2016.
I am still harvesting tomatoes grown outdoors, therefore global warming is rampant!!
Rain in NW London was way down from mid April to October. The world is becoming a desert!
Jeremy Corbyn was elected in Islington: WE HAVE A LABOUR GOVT!
On 17 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
I mean....what do you believe these days? https://wapo.st/2NKPHwt or maybe this https://bit.ly/2PTeqB3
On 17 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
They say that all these energy efficient homes are so we use less coal, gas, electric and oil to heat them, seeing as all the oil, coal and gas is running out. Or could it be that they know that we are heading for much colder times and will need the insulation? A bit of both maybe? Ice cores prove that average temperatures can drop by 15C in a matter of decades. Are we ready? Are you ready? Mass extinction anyone? Maybe the food shortage will be sorted. They can now grow meat in a lab, without an animal having to die. Yay...progress!
On 17 Oct 2018, stephen parker wrote:
Mr Corbyn quoted by the Daily Express warning of a cold spell at the end of October, could be a very interesting winter for weather watchers.
On 16 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Some scattered showers but not a bad day, on the cooler side but some nice sunny spells too making it feel a nice autumn day in the scheme of things. 8 deg @ 1 minute past midnight :)
On 16 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The cloud dropped lower so that the top of the Walkie Scorchie and its ever growing neighbour had disappeared as I crossed the river heading home. Foggy climbing up over the N Downs to quiznight but clear a home. Grey again this morning with some light fog. Gatwick working to the east but aeroplanes were not visible in the cloud. Coming into the city it was clear blue sky and sunshine. Much warmer than yeasterday as it is 69f. More snowfall and cold records coming in from the mid-states of the US. Paul Homewood is covering the warmist lies over Michael and claims that global warming made it worse.
On 15 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
After a light frost and misty start a bright day with good amounts of sunshine 4 deg now at 11.40pm
On 15 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Lorraine..... drought is perfectly normal for Australia... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Australia Instead of desalinating, why not tap into the gigantic underground freshwater lake under the Sahara Desert. Could be more cost effective than building desalination plants. https://insider.si.edu/2010/12/ancient-megalake-discovered-beneath-sahara-desert/ I remember some 'expert idiot' stating that water was going to become scarce in the future. It will if the planet goes into little ice age conditions, because all the freshwater will be locked up in fresh glaciation, with far less precipitation. Never mind. There's enough water under the Sahara to supply the world for a very long time. That's some lake!
On 15 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Grey and cold today. No fog for me but emerging from the N Downs tunnel it was foggy. Low cloud persisting so that the top of the Shard not visible. Just 57f in the City compared to the warmth of last week.
On 15 Oct 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//swallows departed about first week of October. The weather pattern here (Channel Islands) seems to be a day of reasonable rain then light rain then it falls back to sunnshine for a week. I felt uncomfortable about the endless dry weather we had this summer lovely to have blue sky days one after another but I recall the summer of 1976 and I worry. Watched an enlightening bbc program last night on Mediterranean and Israel and how they have combated drought with a massive desalination plant. Worrying news about Australia drought
On 15 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
What a contrast between the warmth of yesterday and the cold of today. Last year around this time it was also warm as it was the final BSB round at Brands Hatch. I was camping and it was very nice although foggy overnight. Today has been cold wet and miserable with some heavy spells of rain into the evening. With the talk of trees I went to Blackmoor apple day to learn that my 4 apple trees are a Bramley, Lord Derby, Laxon's Fortune and Ribston Pippin. They are well established and probably pre-date the building of my house in 1961.
On 14 Oct 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Back in N E Wales, staying an extra day in Speyside due to the heavy rain Saturday and howling winds Friday . Only 4c driving through the highlands this morning , grey and cold but at least it was dry . Sun got out this afternoon through the Lakes. A cold clear night tonight , light winds
On 13 Oct 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
It has been a very warm October so far. Like all months since March. Bedding plants still going strong.
On 13 Oct 2018, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:
Hi Piers I can’t see the October special update update in the 45d slot
On 13 Oct 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Russ,
Don't stare too long into the abyss, because after a time it will begin to stare back at you. Paraphrasing Nietzsche of course.
If there is a buildup of moisture, that air vent is not doing its job properly..
On 12 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry.... I know what you mean, and where our council is concerned anything is possible. But I always go with logic and if something keeps the heat in, then it will also keep the heat out. A Thermos flask will keep things cold as well as hot using the same heat transfer principles. We do have one big gripe though. We opened one of the air vents on a windy day to see what the air flow was like. I looked through the vent to see what kind of anti-insect screen was fitted. To my surprise, there were things living inside the vents. Look like miniature mushrooms or fungi of some description. So we have flora actually living inside our new windows.....I kid you not! Must be the greenhouse effect! That's the living room. We haven't checked the others yet for fear of what we may find.....we may see something looking back at us!
On 12 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Overall not too bad still raining and windy now but just a normal Autumn storm in our location, rest of the country seems to have faired ok too. Around 60000 without power so not as bad as past storms. A good amount of rain.
On 12 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Heavy showers at times early hours of Thurs morn. Rain finished off around 8.15 a.m cloudy then turned into a fairly nice afternoon with cloud and sunny spells. Very quiet calm late aft/early eve. Almost weird how suddenly cold it felt like you would expect before a light frost night. Wind started up around 10.30 /11 pm and now rushing in louder wind increasing to 64kph with 84 kph gusts atm approx 986 mb raining too now. Now measuring 82kph with 111 kph gusts.
On 11 Oct 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
North Spey side today , Misty start on the hills with a fresh SE wind. Still managed a good walk but the humidity made it feel uncomfortable.A Mid afternoon band of rain cleared to give some late sunshine but winds picked up after. I noticed that the council have in the yesterday left wee piles of grit/salt on the minor roads. I raise this observation , not to restir previous opinions and emotions (scientifically put to bed by CraigM last March) , no , merely as an observation on the preparedness for winter. It’s a pity the road potholes weren’t as well considered. A sign of little monies in the council budget no doubt, as probably the case elsewhere! The next Atlantic depression steams in , hopefully gone before the journey home.
On 10 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A fab day, dry warm good sunny spells, breezy at times, cloud increasing by late afternoon/early eve. max 21 deg. 12 now at 10.47 pm wind and now light rain as the evening progressed. Orange and yellow warnings up on met.ie for Thurs night/Friday looks like a weather bomb incoming, autumn is proper starting !-)
On 10 Oct 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
A fine late summers day on the Moray coast . Clear blue skies throughout on a light to moderate southerly breeze , temperature 21c. Pigged our on Lossiemouth Gelatos ( the real Italian ice cream ) and later, further east, the award winning ( go on google it) Portsoy ice cream. A good compensation for the walking this holiday. Hard to believe it was fleece weather last week.
On 10 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Fog this morning but soon past out of it on the way to the City and then blue sky and sun all day. A pleasant warm day touching 72F and a known occurrence before the invention of global warming. I started work in 1985 in a lovely warm October. Russ - I wonder how it will be for you next Summer. I have read reports of super-insulated homes that tick all the green boxes being unbearable in hot weather and without any air-conditioning (too naughty) to sort it. I hope your cladding has been tested to the BS as a system and not just components as allowed by building regs.
On 10 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Ron.... problem with photo's was the impossibility of stopping on fast sweeping Scottish roads. I only got glimpses as we drove along at maybe 50-55mph so didn't even get a definitive leaf shape. I'll let you know if I get a positive ID.
On 09 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The weather has been good since the rain we had around my last post, dry sometimes cloudy too sunny spells with big clouds and a balmy breeze cold to begin warmer breeze last couple of days temp around 12-15 deg last Friday/Sat feeling cooler then creeping up to 16-18deg Sun. onwards. I think best of the temp. due tomorrow, have been working like a complete idiot in the garden as heavy rain due towards end of the week, still seen a few swallows flying around some have stayed a bit longer this year. Russ the Red Oak is a beauty we planted 1 around the same time as our chestnut tree, very slow to start but now around 9 years old it is starting to really grow for it and amazing colour this time of year. Red Maple is still hanging onto its leaves too but leaves are starting to fly about the garden & it won't take a lot to send them falling faster soon. Loads of noise from what I believe to be Mason Bees today.
On 09 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Russ ( Derbyshire) Red Oak does have bright red leaves, but they are certainly not the only tree species that goes spectacularly red in autumn. It is also not suited to the oceanic climate of NW Scotland, but Sorbus, Prunus and Crataegus are. A simple photo would have sufficed, but this site doesn't cater for adding photo files.
On 09 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy & Ron..... I'm sticking with Red Oak chaps. Simply because, according to photo's on Googly, the Red Oak is the only species you mention which has "day-glo" red leaves. All other species have a sort of rusty red appearance. Also, all the trees were along the roadside and often near lochs but never saw them at altitude, so all low level. The very reason I mentioned them was Paddy's reference to day-glo red trees. We are going to get a few for our back garden so needed to know for sure the exact species. I shall consult the local nurseries. I know what you're thinking, what do child-minders know about trees?.... I don't care what the winter brings any longer because the council just covered our home in Grenfell Tower cladding. We used to get up of a morning after a hard frost to a temperature drop in our living room of 8C or more. Now the temperature remains the same with no heating. I am suitably impressed.
On 09 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The rain on Saturday arrived just after ploughing and hedgelaying had ended and everyone ended up in the marquee - handily placed for the bar. As the rain looked set I decided that the terriers would not be racing and there would be no tug of war. The programme of the Hurstpierpoint ploughing association noted that income had been reduced by poor weather for recent matches. And then Sunday was a lovely day, as it has been today as well. Getting chill in the evenings and a time for having the fire going to save on the CH. As the IPCC reports armageddon, an audit of HadCrut4 shows it to be riddled with amateur mistakes and not really of much value at all, but you won't get this on the BBC. Crops being lost due to snow in Manitoba. Remember that we don't need snow to have a cold winter, static highs will do the trick. And if they persist to the end of March what will happen if we exit the Single Energy Market and the interconnectors shut down?
On 09 Oct 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Please can Piers let me have the graph that shows the inverse relationship between forest cover over Planet Earth and CO2 amount in the atmosphere. Since 1850 there has been massive destruction of the Earth's forests including in Canada, USA, Brazil, Peru, Indonesia, Russia and The Congo. CO2 levels have risen as a direct result. Less trees to absorb the CO2. Why can't the Scientists admit and accept this fact?
On 08 Oct 2018, BillS ( NE Wales) wrote:
A pleasant trip over from Speyside to “the Howe O the Mearns” and Montrose. Thick mist at the top of Cairn o’ Mount. Breezy on the coast but didn’t stop a ramble on the beach with the dog. A brighter afternoon with some late sunshine heading back west. Some alarmists on the radio advising us not to eat meat, and to drive electric cars and oh whatever.... to keep the global temp rise below the magical 1.5c citing recent hurricanes as (Florence Sandy) as examples of the end of the world is nigh. I would like someone to explain the unique chemical property of man produced or any natural combusted form of carbon that can cause this global warming that non combusted , predominantly natural form of carbon dioxide doesn’t.
On 08 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Steven Wright - the conditions which bring a hard winter to UK do not really correlate with those in Canada, which gets heavy snow every year.
Heavy snow coming from the NE gives brutal winters to Eastern Scotland, North East England. SE England does worst when snow comes from Siberia on Easterlies.
SW winds can bring extreme snow to the West if the warm moist air hits freezing arctic air going north. Argyll in Scotland can be plastered like this when north of the Great Glen gets little.
We have had a huge amount of Atlantic blocking highs this summer, allied to large high pressures traversing Europe. This does suggest our normal conditions favouring westerlies have been blocked, so maybe it will take some time for order to be restored?
There are some similarities between 1962 and 2018, but it is far from exact.
Northern Hemisphere snow extent for September is well within normal bounds, 9th of 52 data points since 1967 (Rutgers Global Snow Lab have the data).
On 07 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, overcast with a strengthening SW’l wind that brought some heavy rain for a couple of hours after 9am, drier in the afternoon with only 9˚, however, by evening it got milder and we had 11˚ at 8.30pm.
On 07 Oct 2018, Bill S (N EWales) wrote:
Always surprises me how geographical features make such a difference. Still here in Spey side , had less than an hours drizzle early on then a dry but windy day, even seeing a late glimpse of the sun . A Fohn type effect. Clear early evening. It looks rainy all day west of Great Glen according to beebometeo
On 07 Oct 2018, C View wrote:
One must ask just how many of the IPCC charlatans live in or close to South Korea and how many of them flew long haul to get there . I guess this travel is deemed necessary so they can see just how much damage is NOT being done by emissions from aviation. Do you think they will ever hold a conference in Blackpool? no, me neither.
On 06 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, slight frost on car roof, cloudy start but soon enough brightening up to another sunny day, cool N’ly breeze, max temp only 13˚, clear evening & down to 3˚ again by 9pm, wouldn’t be surprised if we had a more intensive frost by tomorrow morning. == Geoff, they also give us the ‘wrong kind of leaves’ sometimes, remember that? :-). Ron, yes, that seems most likely to me also.
On 06 Oct 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
The past two days here in north Spey side have given some fantastic autumnal weather :- sunny spells cauliflower clouds and some sharp showers yesterday, but mainly sunny and dry today. A white ground frost first thing this morning and lighter winds as the day progressed. It’s clear still and going quickly cold this evening.
On 06 Oct 2018, Geoff wrote:
I guess, the only thing we CAN all agree on is that trees give us wood.
On 06 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: I too am confounded about the trees Russ reports. The only trees that really fit the bill for being widely scattered and sporadic in the NW are Sorbus, Prunus and perhaps Crataegus. Here in Perthshire Red Oak and Pin Oak perform quite well up to about 200 metres. Our native oaks grow well up to 400 metres and such is the improvement in the thermal regime in Iceland, I am now sending out acorns to Icelandic colleagues in the Forest Service there.
On 05 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy, no frost and then a brilliant sunny autumn day, albeit with a cold N’ly breeze, which meant a max temp of only 15˚ but it weren’t half hot in full sun and out of the wind, breaking a sweat working this afternoon, but the minute the sun gets behind clouds and after 4pm I felt chilly pretty quickly, 6˚ at 9pm. == Russ, I give up guessing, unless you take another trip up to the NW at the weekend, how likely is that? :-)
On 05 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Enjoy this enlightening talk by Robert Schoch.. He seems to agree with most of Piers work connecting Solar activity with Earth based events.... >> https://youtu.be/Vka2ZgzZTvo <<
On 05 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Morning fog is what we are getting at the moment. Today it lasted all the way into the City but the sun is out now. Lingered yesterday during a RFS visit to Balcombe Estate to remain dull with some light moisture in the air at times. Ploughing match tomorrow with the weather looking to get wet during the morning - timing and extent varies on the 3 models on Ventusky. Days are starting chilly but it is now 66F at 2pm. Was warm on tues evening. At the RFS meeting where we had the joy of an AGM held in a clearing, there was talk of the Sandwich wood burning powerstation that has just opened. It requires a truckload of wood per hour, every hour. Strangely they are already having a bit of problem with supply and rumours of wood being brought from Wales. The transportation of a large amount of water as one attendee put it given that the wood is not dried out first.
On 05 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Are Photinia hardy enough for the mild, wet NW? Most were along coastal regions so exempt from the harsh and icy snows further inland. Maple grow in Canada but the leaves didn't look as big or the same shape as Maple. They all seemed a fairly uniform size, around 10 to 15ft, with a fairly small lateral spread, and straggly as opposed to dense. I'm curious as to how they got there. Maybe brought over from Scandinavia or N Europe by birds? The places they were growing were roadside and low level, where all the berries are for recently arrived migrants, such as Rowan and Hawthorn. That would explain the siting. But they weren't just reddish or plain red. It was Paddy's reference to DAY-GLO red that piqued my interest. They looked vivid even under dark and cloudy skies.
On 04 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, still, muggy and cloudy but that soon made way to sunshine and a strong and mild SW’ly wind that blew all day, making it feel like a holiday, especially with a max temp of 19˚. Was digging the last of our main crop tatties before going on holiday and was amazed at the absolutely dry ground at even a foot deep, still a good crop though if with somewhat smaller tubers than usual. Lovely evening, 9˚ at 9pm. Loads of swallows sitting on a wire at the neighbour’s today, so they can still be seen. == Ron, I would concur with you. Read oaks certainly wouldn’t do well up there, they are slow growing enough with us here.
On 04 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Berries not apparent Ron. If they were there then very few. I can't explain the randomness of their siting. Rarely near houses and tended to be alongside roads in the middle of nowhere. Rather odd. I should have taken the time to take photo's....hindsight huh?
On 04 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
RUSS & PADDY: Very unlikely that they were Red Oak or Sugar Maple. Norway Maple has been quite often planted by roadside landscapers and it does regenerate, though not as vigorously as Sycamore. It does not do as well as Sycamore in upland oceanic conditions either, so in the NW it might appear a bit straggly. Other possible candidates are Gean, Bird Cherry and Swedish Whitebeam, the last being a close relative of the Rowan but with more 'solid' leaves and only partly pinnate lobes. Did they have berries on them Russ?
On 04 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
The trees were not large, and fairly straggly in appearance, similar in structure to a Rowan. They were scattered very randomly too, often by the roadside and quite sparse, maybe a few then none for many miles. So self-seeding seems unlikely, probably done by birds so could have fruit. We didn't see one close up, only while driving but they stood out due to their brilliant red colour. I'm off to work now but I think that Red Oak might be a good candidate.
On 04 Oct 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
B...b..but it's Peer Reviewed? https://areomagazine.com/2018/10/02/academic-grievance-studies-and-the-corruption-of-scholarship/
On 03 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, overcast and still, SW’ly breeze getting up after 9, drizzle and rain all morning but partly sunny in afternoon, max temp 14˚, down to 8˚ by 10pm. We saw quite a number of swallows today, they hung around for quite a while feeding, a late pleasure to see them. == OK, Russ, without actually seeing a leaf I couldn’t be sure, maples sounds a bit unlikely to me for NW Scotland, could be sycamore , though their leaves normally tend to go brown rather than coloured. Ron, an opinion?
On 03 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Mostly dry partly cloudy and some sun, mild enough around 16/17 deg. A good day for me to move about & process fire wood from last years storms for the coming winter, one of the best jobs. Gave the grass a quick mow in places just as it started to rain around late aft/early eve. Only light slow drizzle on n off. Grass growth seems to be slowing down now. Still 12/13 deg at 10pm
On 03 Oct 2018, steven wright wrote:
Calgary in Canada on 2nd October had its earliest and deepest snow for 50 years I know its not the uk but is this things to come this winter?
On 03 Oct 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
The September monthly report of the Swiss Avalanche Service reports a hot, dry and sunny month, with localised snow at month's start and another event around 24th/25th with snowfall down to 2200m, all of which melted again in the warm sunny weather. Freezing levels generally above 3000m, often above 4000m and occasionally touching 5000m. A temperature of 30C was recorded north of the continental divide for the first time in September. All glaciers below 3000m had no snow atop the permanent ice by month's end.
The report expected onset of winter mountain weather early in October and the high altitude measuring sticks were set up in readiness.
On 03 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Berries! I can't remember seeing this many ever. Hawthorn and Rowan are absolutely buried in berries. Heatwave for insects and pollination, followed by cooler damp conditions to fill out the fruit. Its worked a treat......Also of note, we drove and walked all over the north western blob of NW Scotland and didn't spot a single Golden or Sea Eagle. Ironically though, when we pulled into Alness to top up with fuel and groceries for the week, the wife spotted 2 young Golden Eagles perched atop some huge round straw bales in a field, about 300 yards from the A9. Couldn't believe our eyes!
On 03 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.... could have been Maple but certainly not Rowan as I'm very familiar with that species living near the Peak District in Derbyshire. I have noticed in photo's of Canada they have day-glo red trees which I believe are a type of Maple. The ones I saw had largish leaves. Not sure if they were large palmate but certainly had a good size.
On 03 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Rain and wind overnight tailed off after the children went to school, remained dry for the day nice to get out and about and see all the trees well into their change & a lot of leaves falling now too and def. noticing the nights drawing in. Mild again atm 11 deg now just after midnight. Hope we get some cold spells as picked the weather girl up her first proper winter weather watching hat and all in one weather suit today :-)
On 02 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, sunny but with a strengthening NW’ly wind which went to gale force in bursts throughout the day, apples being knocked out of the trees, max temp 13˚, wind abating only after 7pm, 8˚ at 9.30pm. == RON, unlike you, I am hoping for a bit of a hard winter just because there are then fewer pests in the garden in the following year, especially carrot fly for us, and if apple trees go through deep dormancy they produce more fruit. The autumn colours are certainly spectacular, cold nights & sunny days is what does it. My wife still managed to see 3 swallows today.
On 02 Oct 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye, definitely well into that real autumn feel now. Most intense colour I've seen in my Aronia plants this year, but agree very unlikely that these were the brigtt trees seen in the NW. Rowans most likely, but Gean and even Hawthorn colouring up this year. Gut instinct suggests mild wet winter with occasional brief polar maritime outbreaks
On 01 Oct 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cool cloudy start milder late afternoon. Rain early eve. A lil bit windy now too and 11 deg feeling like 8 at 11pm Fairly sure the swallow around here were gathering for departure on Sat. a good few more of them than expected too.
On 01 Oct 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a cold NW’ly wind and a definite wintery smell in the air, thicker cloud moving in from the W in the afternoon, giving some light rain for a while, max temp 9˚, real beefy rain between 4-6pm, wind abating somewhat before starting up again from the SW, feeling slightly milder at 10pm with 8˚. == Russ, the glowing trees are not aronia, which is a N American native and a garden shrub here, most likely rowans with turning leaves and bright red berries. Amazing that you saw so many swallows still, our have disappeared last week bar the odd one, must be the milder damper climate of the West, more insects for them?
On 01 Oct 2018, Bill S(N E Wales) wrote:
A friend in Inverness area told us of snow on the Ben this morning The Ben being Ben Wyvis . Also a cold day here in Spey side and a rainy afternoon - only 6C.
On 01 Oct 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A lovely day on Saturday, more cloud around yesterday but staying dry, blue sky and sun today. Chilly start with 42F at 7am and now only 57f. Cold records in the Netherlands and Poland.
On 01 Oct 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Just spent a week in the NW tip of Scotland. Wind and showers quickly turned to strong wind and rain, quickly developing into gales and torrential rain, easing back to strong winds and rain. We did however, as is usual, get a window of blue sky and sun every day to do lovely walks, bathed in that unique, pastel, autumn light. Garbled Freeview, no internet and hardly any mobile coverage took a few days of getting acclimatised to but became a blessing. Aronia hmmmmm. Those would be the day-glo red trees we kept seeing scattered around would they? Awesome colour....we must get a few. And would you believe it, we saw hundreds of Swallows all over the place, right up to Saturday when we came home. Cold, windy, raining and almost October yet the Scottish Swallows didn't seem to notice. Even 3,000 feet up a flippin mountain there were Swallows flying around.
On 30 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Stayed dry all day yesterday some good sunny spells at times great for getting outside, max 16 ish deg after a parky start. Cloudier this morn. think we may have had a light early morning shower but again dry with added nw breeze, max 12/13 deg clear starry chill 6 deg tonight at 11.34pm 2 deg dew point.
On 30 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, light frost again, sunny day following with a fair amount of cloud and even an odd short shower towards evening, not as heavy as Bill S is reporting, max temp 13˚, quite blowy in the afternoon from the NW, 6˚ at 9.30pm.
On 30 Sep 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Currently on holiday north Speyside. Weather has been, to say the least, cold this weekend .there have been S unny spells with strong to gusty NW wind , particularly gusty yesterday . Frequent showers today some quite heavy. Car temp showing only 8c when out this afternoon.
On 29 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, first frost on roof, lawn and car roof, nothing serious just yet though. A mostly sunny day with high stratocumulus of amazing shapes like from a late 18th century landscape painting, very light NW’ly breeze and a max temp of 15˚, 9˚by 9.30pm. If the Republicans win the US midterms there is a good chance in my view that a lot of the warmista nonsense will disappear.
On 29 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Another nice dry day yesterday with good sunny spells max 15 deg. Temp dropped faster last night starry and clear to begin and frost set in by 10pm with a real winter feel to the air and mist in for the night by midnight. Misty cold frosty 2 deg with sunshine at 8 a.m this morning, looking like a nice sunny day on the cards.
On 28 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, no frost, quite sunny for most of the day with a fairly keen NW’ly wind, got to 15˚ max, down to 7˚ by 9.30pm.
On 28 Sep 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) 45dsub wrote:
So as September draws to a close it’s been a mix of late summer , late autumn weather. Calmer weeks to start and end , third week the most autumnal. Maximum 25c minimum 4c rainfall 77.6mm:-wet for these parts.mainly westerly winds
On 28 Sep 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
C View/Eastside
I remember Piers telling us a few years ago that Jeremy would open up the debate in the Labour Party on Climate Change. That theories sceptical to AGW would be given a fair hearing. In government some kind of independent commission would be constituted to hear the arguments fairly etc.
We can only surmise that he has ditched this idea. Only the other week Clive Lewis MP signed up to a petition calling for sceptics to be no platformed.
Jeremy Corbyn knows full well that AGW theory is a load of cobblers, but he has become a triangulator. Just like the Starmers of this world who tried to defenestrate him a couple of years ago.
It's "a new kind of politics" for him. But, for the people who entertained the idea of hopefulness in him, it is same old, same old.
If I were Piers though, I would be furious.
On 28 Sep 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
C View/Eastside
Playing the eco virtue card is the easy way out for numbskulls like Corbyn junior. Couple of weeks ago the witless Clive Lewis MP signed a Warmist petition calling for the no platforming of AGW sceptics. What a great idea to suspend free speech for anyone unwilling to jump on this absurd bandwagon. I despise these idiots. They are promoting a form of Fascism.
On 28 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Lovely start to Thursday with the mist low across the fields and sun peering through. Amazing beautiful colours in the sky and the trees around really getting into their striking Autumn colours, the tiny one loved the view from the carrier. Warm and sunny 16 deg until afternoon when the temp dropped off and 7 now at 12.30 a.m
On 27 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, still feeling mild in the SW’ly breeze, even sunny for a while but by 10.30 the sky darkened from the N, we had a short bit of rain and temps plunged to 9˚ as the cold front passed on its way SE. Sunshine again in the afternoon but the wind had changed into the NW and it was feeling decidedly cold, 6˚ at 10.30pm under a fairly clear moonlit sky.
On 27 Sep 2018, eastside wrote:
The BBC formally bans climate skeptics
Anthony Watts / 10 hours ago September 27, 2018
The BBC has told staff they no longer need to invite climate-change skeptics on to its program.
ahum....!!
And now that Corbyn has announced plans to bankrupt us with windmills solar panels and other green nonsense guess how much Labour propaganda will now come from the Beeb!!!
On 27 Sep 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Link to AA Presidents Blog.
http://www.theaa.com/public_affairs/aa-presidents-blog.html
On 27 Sep 2018, M Lewis wrote:
I see there is a big storm over Greece. UK has higher temps now than Greece, where it is windy and raining. Given Piers is pushing his BRITAIN and IRELAND ALL WINTER NOW Forecast, may I suggest that he offers it to Edmund King the President of the AA - as that man always pops up on the BBC and ITV News when there is bad winter weather to blow smoke up the backsides of the MET Office and METEO Group.
On 26 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A great day, dry warm 21 deg light breeze at times and not too much in the way of sun making it perfect to work hard in, 11 deg and mostly clear just before midnight, overdid it in the garden glad its bedtime.
On 26 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Yes, warm it was today. Set off home and was surprised by how warm it still was at 6pm. No fire needed this evening and even opened bedroom windows for some fresh air.
On 26 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, mild & overcast with a light SW’ly breeze, warming up rapidly to a max of 21˚ by 5pm, like a sweet summer memory, wind getting up a bit and turning into the N but still very mild, a few hours of sunshine after 2pm, 14˚ at 9.30pm.
On 26 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY: Down to the T shirt today after being back in layers for a few days. First night without a fire for a week. BUT from reports in the 'Toilet Papers' Mount J-Madden is erupting large amounts of gobshite again as it does most years. 4 months of coldest, snowiest evah is predicted as usual. Get your thermals on and woodfuel stocked up.!
On 26 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
No frost this morning but still clear and cold. Had my first fire of the winter last night as although the house had been bathed in sun all day it was chilly in the lounge. My first September fire on record! Of course I did only move in to my house in March 2015. Could the failure of GFS be the same thing as a Mobeeb presenter admitted - their model doesn't handle a meridional jetstream.
On 26 Sep 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
C View - would you mind making comments regarding politics on the other thread please? I totally agree with your point however. It sounds as though Jeremy is in league with the Green Party from what's emerging from the Labour Conference. No mention of the damage done to birds from wind turbines, the weak power output from solar panels and imminent MIA which his brother Piers has been warning about for 10 years and is only now emerging in the mainstream media!
On 26 Sep 2018, C View wrote:
Having just read the likely key points of Jeremy Corbyn's conference speech, I presume it is fair to say Piers and Jeremy don't talk to each other....ever!!!
On 26 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
I am often bemused, to the point of outright laughter, by the predictions of GFS. The short term vacillation and head stands are truly astounding, but the cherry on the cake is their total hopelessness in predicting the location and timing of Polar Maritime outbreaks.
On 25 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
No frost this morning, overcast and progressively warmer as the day went on, some light drizzle late morning and winds switched from wnw to ssw'ly totally cloudy and milder tonight 10 deg feeling like 13 at 10.51pm
On 25 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Up in Nairn overnight, cold but sunny yesterday, cloudy today with showers in the afternoon and a strong cold WNW’ly wind, now calmed down, max temp today 12˚ but towards evening it began feeling milder, 11˚ at 10pm, forecast is for 19˚ tomorrow but then cooler again. No frost yet with us though, too much wind and too many clouds.
On 25 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Frosty day no 2. Went down to Brighton last night and it was quite pleasant. Not too chilly coming out after the gig. Car read 9C at 11.15pm and then arriving home just before midnight it was 2C. A bit of coastal warming in action. Sunny again today but still only 61F. Was 37F this morning. The Netherlands set a cold record for 23 Sept and snow has hit Manitoba. A comment on iceagenow has frost a month early. Contrary to the warmest year evah? I have a feeling i will be restocking the firewood & kindling tonight and lighting the fire. That is the benefit of having it and saving on CH.
On 24 Sep 2018, C View wrote:
More than a dusting it would seem according to this....
https://www.facebook.com/GlencoeMountain/posts/2341728029188298
On 24 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Frost for me too! I thought it was chilly once out from under the duvet. Flat roof was all white and there was some lingering mist over the fields. Car had ice on but the sun is still quite strong and so it was melted by the time I left for the station but the roof was still frosty. A lovely otherwise so far. From just 39F at 7am it is now 56F in the City at 2pm. A run of 11 spotless days has taken this year past 2007. Is 2009's 260 days out of reach?
On 24 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
First frost this morning, hard on the car window at 6.30 a.m & still small slices of ice on the bin waiting for bus at 8.25 and traces of grass frost. 6 deg feeling like 3 at 9 a.m Cirrus clouds blue sky and sunshine was a welcome site after all the cloud and rain last week. I think earlier than our first frost last year which i'm sure was early Oct. but can't find where I wrote it down!-) The Katla volcano looking 10x larger than the one in 2010 looks set to blow for first time in 100 years they say. Gees all that co2 :-/ Met.ie giving a dry week ahead, spot on today as Piers weather period fine and sunny so the tiny one and I off out to make the most of the day :)
On 23 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A lot of rain yesterday and again this morning. After dry ploughing conditions today was near perfect but the rain saw off the horse ploughing - the one team that turned out were towed out by a tractor, progress huh? A few empty plots for the Surrey County Championships but the rain eased eventually. Chilly says Maria. Yep, the wind across the field was brutal at times and at home this evening the lounge thermostat was half a degree from the turn on point. More of this and I need to bring in the firewood. The clouds have all cleared and the moon is beaming down.
On 23 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A heavy shower in the day after a dry start then very much like Bill described today, fantastic clear starry sky a chill in the air and the aroma of peat fires around tonight, our coldest early eve. so far 6 deg. With a real feel & a dew point of 3.
On 23 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, bright and cold, a mostly sunny day with a NW’ly wind and much sunshine interspersed with clouds, max temp 14˚, some beefy showers in late afternoon, clear moonlit evening, 5˚ at 10pm.
On 23 Sep 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
Anvil topped shower clouds today , on a stiff NW breeze Cool even in the sunny spells. The sort of day that makes you think of the beauty seen in winter time. Quiet clear cold evening
On 23 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
White with frost this morning, but a glorious day followed, with the odd light shower. Autumn colours really getting strong and--yup-- GFS backtracking on polar maritime out break.
PADDY: The Aronia germination will be all over the place over an extended period. Their colouration has been really gorgeous this year.
On 23 Sep 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Finally getting some rain in NW London, although ground still has major water deficits after 5 months of drought and heat.
Looks like Atlantic-wide blocking highs are returning, something unlikely to promote more usual Westerlies.
Apparently the mid-West and Southern Canada had plenty of heat and rain this summer, so if weather war is now occurring, we know who benefitted and ergo who likely started it.
Special Relationships and all that...
On 22 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚ at 7.30, totally clear sky when I got up earlier, still quite a beefy NW’ly wind with a good number of clouds, though a glorious sunny autumn day overall with a max temp of 14˚, clear starry evening, with a soon to be full moon, 6˚ at 9.30pm. Equinox tomorrow morning at 2:54, time to start thinking about the woollies. Was speaking to a farmer this week who said that the overall grain harvest was not as bad as expected on account of the drought but that straw would be in short supply this winter. On our way down to Dundee we did notice that there were rather fewer bales in the stubble fields compared to other years.
On 21 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, sharp cold N’ly wind blowing with some force, overnight rain and continuing off & on during the morning, much brighter afternoon but whenever the sun was obscured by clouds it felt very much cooler, max temp anyway only 12˚, clear evening with 5˚ at 9.30, wouldn’t be surprised if we get frost at least in the hills tonight. ==Ron, about to sow my aronia seed, I’ll leave it outside over winter & see what happens in the spring.
On 21 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Wow some rain we've had since Thursday! Maybe time to lift that hosepipe ban lads 😅 Well this has most def. been an R4 period as forecasted although less fine & less warm and more wet and after the balmy bit cooler. On the occasions the sun has peeked through today you can feel the warmth in it. The garden has had a good soaking and the tiny one has loved listening to the rain but we are looking forward to getting back out soon as. Max 14 deg. 8 now at 7.40pm. More rain on Sunday with another spell of weather due according to news.
On 21 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
C VIEW: I always take GFS with a large dose of sea salt. MWIS is more reliable as is the Norwegian MO, but nobody does the longer range stuff like Piers does. BTW GFS now predicting a seriously sharp Polar Maritime outbreak at the start of the second week of October.
PADDY: the Aronia has been day-glo scarlet-crimson this year.
On 21 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Maria - just one guinness tent? I doubt that. BillS - the naming of storms makes them sound more scary and different to all the low pressure systems we have had for centuries before so it must be global warming. Puerile but then that's the MetO these days. Windy night but thankfully from a direction that didn't howl through my hanging tiles and keep me awake. Then the rain came! Like a fire hose so now fully awake at 2.30 I looked at the radar. A narrow band of red from SSW to NNE showing that it would pass soon. Still blustery this morning and cool. A sharp shower came over before lunch but the sun is out now. Office comments - nobody forecast rain. Looking ahead to Sunday, GFS, GEM and ICON all show morning rain but then a MetO classic is 'Sunday is still uncertain'. Forecasting? What's that?
On 21 Sep 2018, mike wrote:
Wessex/mercia border 600'asl
A lull in the strong winds in the early hours, but they have returned during the morning. Mostly low cloud/rain with brief periods of sunshine, and a single flash of lightening half an hour ago.Temps around 60F
Regards
m
On 20 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, feeling chilly in the still strong W’ly wind but we had some good sunshine during the morning, though max temp didn’t go beyond 14˚. The wind has gradually eased off and it is now still and quiet. What with all the leaves and branches on the ground it is now autumn, as far as I can see we had no damage of any note. 9˚ by 9pm. == Russ, in our case it is species specific, we just grow one species. Interesting article on Florence, thanks.
On 20 Sep 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
Grey overcast start gave way to an even greyer wet day from lunchtime on. Some very heavy spells of rain. Total to 9 pm 38mm and still raining. Pressure is dropping quickly now as well , 3 mb in last hour, I see on xc weather winds picking up in NW Wales where the low must be winding up atm. I think these naming of storms is a load of old cobblers it doesn’t mean anything especially when the metobeebo only just gave the name on the day of formation Knowing it’s Bronagh, or Ally so what , personally think it’s dramatising it ‘cos it’s trendy
On 20 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
The amount of rain that's been falling - and still is - you may see them ploughing using jet-skis instead of the traditional ploughs. Huge rail disruption across the north and into Scotland. Should be OK'ish by tomorrow but more flooding may be an issue. Was wondering where all the wildlife goes during such weather, then saw a meadow pipit happily flying around in torrential rain. So maybe they just carry on as usual, it's just that you can't see them for the rain and mist.
On 20 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Overcast all day Max.13 deg felt cooler some showers too. 8 now at 8pm feels like 6. A lot of people commenting on the chill in the air out today. Yeah thats 300,000 over the 3 days that they estimate, 97,500 actual day one and estimate between 80-90,000 today so shouldn't be far out by day 3 tomorrow, maybe they have a Guinness tent ;-)
On 20 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A bit blustery in the SE with some rain but just grey come morning. Brightened up as the day progressed and quite humid showing that the system came up from warm SW. 300,000!! Be lucky if there are 30 of us spectating come Sunday morning but then it is purely ploughing. I guess the Irish Nationals are a bit more than that. I saw that it was delayed by a day. Having first read that a mobile home was blown off the cliffs in Galway killing the occupant, the picture in the paper shows a touring caravan which is lighter and not fixed down at all. I don't understand why she was still in it as it must have been rocking wildly. Amazingly the tent next to it was fine! Actually, with solid ground I would back my tent to see a storm out. Edmonton in Alberta has had a record snowy September - yes, still 10 days to go! Just 3 spotless sun days and 2018 matches 2007. 2008 & 2009 were nearly 75% spotless.
On 20 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.....an interesting conundrum. Is this all trees, all young trees or species specific?............ Not sure about this sites credentials yet but I'll post this anyway. It seems legit. >> https://electroverse.net/contrary-to-agw-narrative-florence-formed-in-abnormally-cool-waters/ << It's nothing new for Michael the Mannipulator.
On 19 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yeah Gerry the National Ploughing championships on this week, extended to Friday as weather put a spanner in proceedings today but yeah always a massive crowd, this year 300,000 I believe expected turnout, have not been to one as yet :-)
On 19 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Well I cleaned and packed away the paddling pools on Sunday just before I mowed the grass and allowed myself to let go of the mindset of summer seeing as we actually had 2/3rds of one this year it has been a little harder to embrace the inevitable slide towards winter and to hang up the flip flops and bring out the hiking boots ( oooh hang on sock shopping, happy thought :)) & like Paddy said Autumn arrived this morning, first time I've worn a coat in months and it did get pretty wet windy and wild for a time after college and school runs, had to retrive a wheelie bin or 2. Strange how it was like to the West of us and above us and a little right of us sat like an Autumnal crown of craziness but we just narrowly missed the Orangeness of it and stayed in the Yellow zone. Lots of leaves stuck to the windows upstairs, not as much rain here although some hefty showers at times and went from balmy and mild to clear and chilly tonight. 10 deg. With a real feel of 6.
On 19 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, clear starry sky when I got up earlier on, calm before the storm which started up around 9.30 and got wilder, still blowing hard up to 5pm but then gradually slowing down to strong wind, SW at first, then turning into the W by increments. Hefty bit of rain between 9 - 10 am, dry and often quite sunny afternoon, max temp 14˚, down to 8˚ by 10pm. Autumn has come in with a bang. == Russ, we grow our trees in special cell trays off the ground in tunnels, normally put them outside by mid July and on the whole they do well but not this year, first time this has happened in this way.
On 19 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.... trees in general have been the most lush and heavy of leaf than any other summer that I can remember. Plenty of late spring moisture then the wall to wall sun for many weeks, with very little wind to damage the leaves. Could your problem be related to swings in temperature from heat in the day to rapid chilling under clear skies at night? An even stronger theory would be the drought's effect on the underground mycelium network. Drought resistant doesn't necessarily mean drought immune.
Soil is an extremely complex home to the almost sentient mycelium culture, and trees are co-dependant on this underground network for many nutrients. If drought conditions began affecting the mycelium, then this could have a dramatic effect on young trees, still building up their root systems. >> https://youtu.be/mPqWstVnRjQ <<
On 18 Sep 2018, Peterg wrote:
The models have been consistent about this forthcoming scenario - a deep low crossing central England on Sunday and a ridge of high pressure developing in the north Atlantic producing a cold northwesterly airflow across the country as the low zips into the near continent. If the high moves across the south of England early next week i would expect to see the first frost, ground or otherwise, effecting the south.
On 18 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, mild but cloudy with a long burst of rain from 8-9.30, brightening up by midday, max temp 19˚, sunyish afternoon but always with quite a bit of cloud, 13˚ by 9pm. == RON: interesting comment, thanks. This year has been interesting in many ways: few wasps but very many ladybirds in the last few weeks, extraordinary growth of some veg but our trees have done very badly, unsure of the cause, seed quality (lack thereof), long cold spring? Etc.
On 18 Sep 2018, C View wrote:
RON. Never mind the will it it won't it be cold enough for snow on the tops later this month , the MWIS forecast is saying snow on the tops over the course of the next three days with tomorrow's high winds giving a windchill of -12c
On 18 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for a very sharp Polar-maritime outbreak Sunday-Monday with 1200 metre temperatures down to -5C--so snow on the Scottish Munroes for sure--but--this is GFS, so expect a warm southerly flow forecast anytime soon.
PADDY: I have noted that native insect species like eating exotic alder species, but the native-only religionists don't like to hear that!
On 17 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, quite windy from the S all day, mostly grey clouds with a few light showers and no sun, pretty cool as well with a max temp of only 15˚ but by 9.30pm it suddenly felt much milder, 14˚ then, warm and wet forecast for tomorrow, yellow wind warning for Wednesday.
On 17 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Lovely day so far. Lots of sunshine. 75F in the City. I noted how it tailed off quite quickly yesterday as the sun disappeared behind the trees. The attendance at the ploughing match was over 2600 apparently. Not surprised - the car park was packed. Dr Tim Ball has a good piece on all the lies about Florence and the basic incompetence of NOAA forecasts. Basic meteorology would have got it right but they failed badly. worth a read on WUWT.
On 16 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Paddy - that's a shame. I had a chat with a guy on a trade stand from East Anglia and he said they were like you say up there. A bit drier and warmer maybe. Now Maria should be able to tell us about ploughing matches with big crowds. The Surrey match next week is just ploughing with no beer but at least there is a food van. Next month is the Hurstpierpoint match which has a bit of show with it, and beer! Yesterday's match was in Partridge Green, home of the Dark Star brewery so there was a great choice of ales.
On 16 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, overnight rain just coming to an end and giving us a sunny morning with a warm SW’ly wind and temps rising to 19˚, however, the afternoon was cloudier and markedly cooler at 14˚, down to 11˚ by 8pm, nice though that we can still get a bit of warmth. == Gerry, ploughing matches up here are rather later, Oct/Nov, and therefore often damp & dreich affairs, no beer in sight and only farmers and enthusiasts attending.
On 16 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Wonderful day yesterday. Lots of sun. Warm. ALL the models on Ventusky on Friday said it would be mainly cloudy yesterday and so were wrong. But don't worry, they know what will happen in 50-100 years to a tenth of a degree. If anyone is looking for a great day out then I can recommend the West Grinstead Ploughing Association annual match and show. A huge contingent of ploughers, some I watched last weekend and many I will see again at the Surrey Championship next Sunday. My first experience of seeing steam ploughing. There was some hedgelaying by some regarded as at the top of the skill. A mini show with livestock, funfair, beer, food, local crafts, trade stands, terrier racing, tug-of-war. Costs a mere £6 to get in and is 21 September next year at Coombes. Great thing about ploughing matches is that they move to a different farm each year.
On 15 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, coldest morning so far this side of summer, overcast with a light S’ly breeze but brightening and warming up to a max of 18˚, cooling down somewhat in the strengthening wind in the afternoon but after some rain in the evening it felt quite mild, 12˚ at 10pm. == Ron, discovered something remarkable tonight: in one of our seedling beds where I have 10’ tall Alnus rubra, red alder, they have been almost completely stripped of their leaves by very few small caterpillars I couldn’t identify, this happened just over the last few days - ever come across that? The trees will be alright, I’m sure, good job it didn’t happen earlier in the season.
On 15 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cheers Paddy for Buddleia advice makes sense, going out to do that today, we have an old type purple lilac too growing at the start of a hedge and on into it, never been cut and fantastic every year except that you wait all year for it and it goes too quick. Weather has been mostly cloudy with showers around 16 deg. by day 8/9 by night. Some nice sun for a time yesterday and the leaves are now showing signs of Autumn, love the seasons. Looking wet n windy Monday into Tues.
On 15 Sep 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
For those who put Hurricane Florence down to weather, not humans, www.drroyspencer.com has a couple of concise articles with data showing that the 1950s was the peak decade for hurricanes in NC/SC and other interesting observations. He is one of the few sane voices in the US climate debate.
I would quite appreciate 3 inches of rain from the dregs of Florence if it makes it over to blighty - would swell up my maincrop spuds nicely.
On 15 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Geese in practise mode here Paddy. Small flocks starting to gather and move near dusk.......Saw hundreds of Swallows and House Martins hoovering up insects around Oak trees the other day. Not sure where they've all been hiding through the summer but they are certainly getting ready for the long flap back to Africa. They could be from the north west parts of Scotland where the icy winds from the jet-stream loops keep pushing in. As the insect numbers dwindle they'll be forced to move south to warmer areas.
On 14 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, windy old day from the get-go, a W’ly, cloudy but also some good sunny spells in between which managed to get temps up to 17˚, just, couple of beefy showers in the morning but then dry, followed by a clear starry evening with a large young moon beautifullty low over the horizon just before setting, 7˚ by 9.30pm, == On second thoughts, I might call my pub The Buddleia :-)
On 13 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚Cat 7.30, cool W’ly wind which blew with variable strength throughout the day, not much sunshine today, though when it happened we at least got 16˚ for a short while, down to 11˚ by 9.30pm. Autumn has arrived: we heard our first geese today, didn’t manage to catch sight of them as the flew over somewhere nearby. This means that the swallows won’t be long in leaving, maybe another week or so. If I owned a pub up here I would call it the Goose & Swallow, they cross over every spring and autumn. == With Buddleias we see admirals, peacocks, small tortoise shells, painted ladies, lilac makes a more handsome shrub but doesn’t attract butterflies, so secateurs are an essential accessory for Buddleia :-)
On 13 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
I'm hoping for strange cloudscapes again Craig. Seen a few already but only in practise mode at the moment.............. Lilac is a very similar looking shrub but I believe you only cut back alternate shoots as they take two years to flower. So if the whole thing is cut back you miss a season's worth of flowers. I prefer Lilac as it's a more dense and leafy shrub; not as straggly as the Buddleia.
On 13 Sep 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Hurricane Florence looks to be weakening but is going to stick around due to placement of ridges so will dump an awful lot of rain, cue the ambulance chasing vultures who ahead of time are blaming climate change. Personally I blame all their salty tears. On a serious note it looks nasty so stay safe. Ex-hurricaine activity looks like it will affect us also. Joe B did say it would be an uptick and did say last year it could be 2 years in a row - based on what has been before. I wonder if we will get some interesting skies again. // Trimmed an old Buddleja bush from 9ft to 3-it still went mental although flowers delayed. Not seen many butterflies this year but more than the last 2-3. =cold early spring+ dought affected food sources? Bees+wasps seem to be doing better. Flies were everywhere but now easing. Like I said before nature always takes advantage when it can.//
A cold dull day with speckles of rain & a high of 15°C that cleared. Down to ~6°C now.
On 12 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell practically all day, some lovely cirrus formations, max temp 19˚ which would have been more had it not been for the blustery W’ly wind, great autumn day, 10˚ at 10pm.
On 12 Sep 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Drizzling all day (wed) and very cool evenings.
Large numbers of butterflies earlier this week feasting on fallen fruit.Also we have located the hornets nest in our roof space, the first indication was a damp/dark patch on the bathroom ceiling and a buzzing noise behind,then we see them entering under tiles, they gnaw the dry wall plasterboard ,so action to be taken pronto !The pest man explained that they also hunt moths at night ,hence the hanging on the window.
On 12 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Rain overnight giving a dull start but it has brightened up a bit now. A cool or even chilly 59F in the City. Yes, Buddleia should be given an annual trim to promote vigour next spring. The difference is that the globosa one should not. Strangely, mine has grown up a bit straggly and needs cutting back and there are little shoots appearing so a good time to do it. The recently planted roses that got munched by deer within 2 days are fighting back with new blooms. One has needed watering, as have a couple of newish trees in the orchard. As the ploughing showed last weekend it is very dry still.
On 12 Sep 2018, C View wrote:
Media having a great time hyping Hurricane Florence with descriptors such as monster storm or storm of a lifetime. Of course this has been much worse in the past such as Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 with 220 mph winds
On 11 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚ C at 7.30, lots of rain overnight, still going this morning until the sun came out around 9am, whereafter we had a fabulously sunny day with a max temp of 19˚, the strong W’ly wind notwithstanding, packing trees now, so not much time to enjoy the sun, 11˚ at 9pm. == That Buddleia story is a real goer :-) Maria, they should be pruned back hard every autumn/winter so that they can put out new shoots in the spring and produce more flowers every year, if you don’t they will grow long and straggly and break apart. You can see the new leaf buds/leaflets already now, each one of these will make a new shoot next year with flowers at the tip of them. Fewer shoots/branches means bigger flowers.
On 11 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
* buddleia sorry my bad !-) Interesting hurricane watching at the moment, I wonder if a busy season this time around.
On 11 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Worst of the showers passed through with a blustery wind over the course of the weekend, grey and drizzly on n off the last 2 days, maybe a couple of moments where the sun grinned through but you'd miss it if you blinked. On the chilly side of 15 deg. with a real feel of 13. Still jumping out to do jobs in between showers as I'm feeling the pressure of getting so far behind tho making happy headway !-) Talking of Buddleja we have a purple and a white one that look really awful since storms last year, can you prune them and if so how much and when? Butterflies have disappeared here too, where do they go!?
On 11 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Buddleia used to be seen all along the railway but the past few years has seen a massive clearance countrywide. They tend to leave them near the stations for aesthetics I guess.........Toward the end of the heatwave the numbers of butterflies and insects went through the roof. As soon as the temperature dropped off again, the butterflies and insects all but disappeared......The rain keeps missing us as usual, so only getting occasional dampness and drizzle.
On 10 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, a mostly cloudy day which produced rain only in the evening, SW’ly wind, 16˚ max temp and down to 12˚ by 9.30pm.
On 10 Sep 2018, DaveT wrote:
Yesterday evening Zeebrugge was a nice and warm 25C as we boarded the ferry to Hull. Hull was a lot cooler when we arrived this morning. I actually had to wear a real shirt and she put a fleece on for the ride home.
On 10 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Another fine day so far with lots of sun and 66F in town so far. Lovely weather to work in compared to the summer heat. Paul Homewood has been busy again exposing the MetO's hottest summer evah claim. You just knew it would be rotten to the core. Iceage comments on the lack of US icebreakers, especially compared to Russia. Now which one believes the warmist crap and which doesn't? Only saw white butterflies over the weekend but it was quite breezy.
On 10 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS now back to predicting a run of polar maritime air with a particularly cool spell towards the end of the month--expect warm south-easterlies in due course!
On 09 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
I have a globosa. I had no idea what it was when these little fragrant yellow balls appeared. They don't last as long. Nice red sky to end the day along with some hooting tawny owls. Breeze dropped as the sun set.
On 09 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C overnight, 12˚ at 7.30, drizzle & fog but brightening by midday to leave us with yet another sunny and really warm afternoon, 22˚ max again, with a fresh WSW’ly wind, lovely clear evening with 10˚ at 9pm, cloudier and cooler prospect for tomorrow. == On Buddleias, there is also another variety, globosa, which has honey scented orange ball shaped flowers about an inch in diameter and flowering May/June, never seen many insects on them though.
On 09 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
The default colour for Buddleia is purple and Davidii has the most nectar so it the most attractive to butterflies. I presume the breeding of hybrids has lessened this. Roses have been so cultivated that they have lost most of their nectar so just end up looking pretty. If Davidii is the most common then I would presume it would be the one along the railways. The former 3rd platform at my home station is thick with it. I have self seeded ones in my garden but interestingly in the pation has sprouted one with a white flower among the purple. All my others are purple. They are amazing as they grow out of the bridge parapets and cutting walls. Main source of info - Monty Don. Sunny spells with quite a breeze today.
On 08 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Ah yes, the new concrete sleepers. So are the Davidii the same as those on the railways Gerry?
On 08 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast but brightening up soon enough to leave us with a positively hot day for this time of year, max temp 22˚, wind turning from the N into the SE and quieting down by evening, beautiful starlit sky with barely a cloud, 10˚ by 10.30pm. == Russ, too many questions I can’t answer but what I would suggest is the importance of the general environment, i.e. stations & sidings generally are in towns where the atmosphere, plant cover, lack of wide open spaces is less conducive to a large butterfly population than out in the country. Buddleia certainly thrives in dry conditions with little to no soil, might even like iron?
On 08 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Nice day for the ploughing match. A bit of early sun then overcast but bright. The ground was too dry for good ploughing as the soil was crumbly and didn't leave good furrows. See how it is next Saturday at the next match. Buddleia - how strange that Monty Don covers this in today's Mail supplement. Davidii is the one best for butterflies. There are plants all along the railway lines. They like lime hence the attraction to mortar.
On 08 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy....interesting. I see plenty on mainline stations but as you say far less between stations. So maybe the high speed of the trains kills many butterflies. Could it be the diesel fumes and burned oil smoke that puts them off? Are you suggesting that the excess iron in the ground alters the fertility of the Buddleia so they produce less pollen maybe? Do the butterflies require different types of pollen, if so, and there are no other flowers nearby, maybe this could put them off? Funny thing is, I don't see hover-flies or bees on the railway Buddleia either....how strange! Could it be that they are all female plants and don't have pollen....or some such oddity?........ I see the Melt Office have changed their wet & windy Sunday to fine & sunny.....nothing new there then!.....Quite a few unexpected cold snaps and snow falls across the world.
On 07 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, somewhat milder than yesterday morning and after the early cloud had dissipated, shaping up into a late summer/early autumn day with a max temp of 19˚ the WNW’ly wind notwithstanding, 13˚ at 9.30pm. == Russ, re buddleia, that was me: yes, they are ubiquitous anywhere in Europe on railway sidings - but not heavily used mainlines - which are not the most conducive environment for butterflies, too much fine iron particles that don’t allow anything else to grow, whereas in gardens & parks it’s a different story.
On 07 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Met forecasting is not so accurate this week, 2 days ago headlines saying met.ie say the weather this weekend should be surprisingly good, also on 6th met say massive change on way as temps to plummet to 2deg tonight (we had 6 deg ) then 7th met predicts temp of 18 deg but persistent rain on the way this wkend!-) ah well lucky we have Piers in times of confusion 😂 Yesterday the weather changed to drizzly showers a few heavy, good day to get away from work and recharge same today despite dry morning max 17 deg. 12 now and cloudy at 9.18pm
On 07 Sep 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
I see a waterspout has been reported off Llandudno today. Generally cool and light showers around here today, with a fresh west to north west breeze.
On 07 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Ron.... I know this moon phase thingy isn't chiselled in stone but full moon is around the 24th of Sept I think. I will go with calm and frosty from the 22nd through to about the 28th. Today we are almost at new moon and the Met forecast is for wet & windy around Sunday. I'll go with that too. More likely than not I would say. ..... The big dams at Ladybower west of Sheffield are at about 40% of total capacity. But all the major tributaries are flowing nicely. The Howden Dam was being drained in to the Derwent, which is the one used for supply. Are they expecting heavy rain and a quick top up?.....Who was it mentioned Buddleia the other day and butterflies? The railways have a big problem with Buddleia taking over at the track sides. Thousands upon thousands of shrubs yet hardly a butterfly in sight. So why are they called 'the butterfly bush'? Wrong type of Buddleia?....Keep seeing an occasional Swallow but no families.
On 06 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, seriously cold after the high temps of not long ago, but all in a day’s work, beautiful sunny morning with a brisk NW’ly wind which helped the paint to dry while I was watching it (only kidding, I do have a life), max temp a respectable 18˚, showery afternoon but most of them missed us, 8˚ by 9pm.
On 06 Sep 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Huge Earthquake off Fiji this evening. I note Piers posted on Twitter yesterday that we enter a five day R4 this evening.
On 06 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Aye, GFS backtracking on polar maritime out break from 18th, but still going for a fairly vigorous outbreak on the 22nd. Expect further vascillation
On 06 Sep 2018, DaveT wrote:
19:05 one hour ago we arrived in Besancon in hammering rain and flooded roads. Happily the big Hardley-Ableson is unfazed by going through 6 inch deep floods even though the riders damn near drowned!
On 05 Sep 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
A chilly 5 deg.this morning warming up to 8 by 8.30 a.m just had a t-shirt on and it was fresh without a jumper, the tiny one had a coat and hat on over her sleepsuit and looked snug as a bug baby in the baby carrier whilst we walked kids to the bus, the breeze again keeping it cooler today but some sunny spells increasing the temp after lunch a bit. Max 18deg cloud and drizzle this eve. temp still 12 deg at 11.30pm a true see saw up n down contrast of temps this week.
On 05 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, feeling chilly under a clear blue sky but the sun soon making temps rise to a max of 19˚ again in the afternoon, all this in a S’ly breeze, perfect for painting a wooden building so that it could dry reasonably well before the rain arrived around 9pm by which time we had 12˚.
On 05 Sep 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for a sharp polar maritime outbreak 19-22 September, so equinox snow for the Highland tops id true. However we know how 'off' GFS can be--their warm easterly flow for this week went for a Burton.
On 05 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
What a pleasant evening it was in Shoreham - OK helped by a 2-1 win. Some light rain this morning but dry once in town and now much brighter. I had to pinch myself reading about how a sensible and knowledgeable person had written a climate report for the EU. A farmer who is far more in tune with the environment that some snowflake environmentalist living in Islington. note how the local knowledge of the Inuit was ignored by the polar bear alarmists, who live in a warm environment as opposed to hunting in the Arctic. With Australia now having a debate about energy costs and heading towards dumping windmills etc., sadly that leaves us on our own as committing energy suicide, on top of the Brexit economic suicide.
On 05 Sep 2018, eastside wrote:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/09/03/green-outrage-ukips-hilarious-eu-climate-change-report/
Incredible to look at this video.
It proves the absence of debate,the "science is settled" quasi religious fervour of the EU versus a REAL WORLD, farmer who realised the "climate change" hoax made him lose lots of money in his crops.
The greens had nothing to answer but HOT AIR, and these EU nutters are actually dictating the same FAILED policies, in favour of reducing exactly the gas (at immense subsidised costs) which makes the plants grow!!!
On 04 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, feeling really cold after that blissful weekend, cloudy and still with a N’ly breeze that gradually turned into the SE, bright afternoon though with a max temp of 19˚, clear starlit evening, 11˚ at 9.30pm. == Butterflies galore here as well, not many admirals but a huge number of peacocks; we’ve planted lots of budleyas over the years and they are mobbed, especially when the sun is out.
On 04 Sep 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Tues, humid/drizzly here ,we also have lots of butterflies of different varieties ,a tiny sky blue one I've not seen before and at night,quiet a lot of hornets banging on the window, purhaps they had a good summer feasting on other insects and that has boosted their numbers (along with the wasps)
Yes Maria, now it's the perfect time and temperature to get out and do some DIY
On 04 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Butterflies? Yes, lots of whites around in the garden at the moment. Just after sunset a chorus of owls started up which I was told last year will be the juveniles getting ready to set off to a territory. Cool again this morning with cloud that persisted all the way into the City. Brightened up now to be 65F at 2pm. Looking forward to a pleasant evening and a cup game at Shoreham.
On 04 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A fresh 6 deg. start to the new school term due to clear sky the sun was with us from the get go, not as warm as met said would be last week but dry and breezy, great day for doing jobs I couldn't do last year, so good to be up a ladder again even the tiny one was amused watching from her pram while I played with the muck in the gutters and wrestled with overgrown climbers, we also saw a ton of butterfly's today, have not seen as many in around 9 or 10 years. Max on the cooler side of 17 deg Clear night and 6 deg just after Midnight.
On 03 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30 with a N’ly breeze and drizzle until early afternoon, big change from yesterday, such is autumn. Drier thereafter and only a slight brightening on the western horizon in the evening, max temp barely 13˚, down to 11˚ again by 9pm.
On 03 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
It might not be a heatwave but the fine end to August and start to September is as Piers forecast. Slight traces of fog this morning as the day began cool but is now 72F in the City. With the MetO trying to claim this summer tops 1976, and the other surprising claim that 2003 and 2006 were mere 100ths of a degree from 1976 set me wondering about what might have changed. Airports are always on the stations list because pilots always need to know about the weather. Being near Gatwick one thing noticeable by its absence is turbo-prop aeroplanes. So much so that I snapped one flying over a show in May. Significant? Yes, as jets must have replaced them and I suspect create more heat. And the number of flights is up from 1976. Meanwhile earliest snow on record in Japan.
On 02 Sep 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Saturday early morning looked like there had been some light showers whilst we were all asleep, a nice enough day for the start of Autumn, a good mix of sunshine and cloud max temp 19 deg. Today some sunshine for a time this morning but soon clouded over and drizzly showers this afternoon, high humidity max 20 deg then showery on n off & breezy tonight 12 deg. @ 10.10pm
On 02 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, overcast & foggy start but brightening up soon enough to leave a warm, almost hot day with a stiff S’ly breeze which stopped temps rising to more than 23˚, still pretty brilliant for this time of year, and still 17˚ at 9pm. Change to cooler on the way tomorrow according to Beebomet.
On 02 Sep 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Another very accurate forecast for August, the current heat at the end of the month arrived two or three days late but the calm high pressure weather that heralded it was right on schedule, the rest of the monuhs forecast was pretty well bang on with the mainstream forecasts inaccurate at times even on the day, as I noted one lunchtime, as I studied the weather app on my phone one day in London - telling me that it would be cloudy all day as the sun beat down on me from a sky with only patchy cloud. WELL DONE PIERS! I would be interested to know whether Piers could forecast the probability of a Carrington event at any particular time. Unlike AGW and other sources of fashionable false doom we know that such an event WILL happen again. Does the minimum we are heading in for herald such an event as well as weather that will make fools of the warmists in the coming decades?
On 01 Sep 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, overcast, SW’ly wind blowing all day but warm nevertheless with a max temp of 21˚ and a nice slot of sunshine in mid afternoon. Out at a gig tonight, still 18˚ at 8pm, 13˚ at midnight. == Dean Powell, no surprises there, par for the course in your neck of the woods, we’ve seen light frost at the end of August as well in certain years, even though we’re close to the N Sea.
On 01 Sep 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
From a chilly start after a clear night a nice warm day. Apparently, we have just had the warmest summer according to the MetO. For those of us around in 1976 this is something of a surprise. But then the MetO is one of those tasked with backing up the IPCC global warming claims along with the Australian BOM and US NASA & NOAA. Ironic that lots of cold records have been set in Australia but they will correct them once nobody is looking.
On 01 Sep 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
And the first snow of summer in Turkey? ...>> https://koztimes.com/in-turkey-in-the-middle-of-the-season-the-snow-fell-photofact/14122/ <<...
On 31 Aug 2018, Dean Powell wrote:
Well, first frost of autumn this morning here in the N E Cairngorms! Had to scrape frost off windscreen at 7am....sign of things to come ?
On 31 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
You know when Autumn has crept up on you when your walking down the garden in the morning in flip flops and your feet are wet n cold n slide and squelch till you take off the flip flops and walk bare feet as its easier than trying to steer the feet in them. Well water extra cold to brush teeth too! Chilly clear starts, loads of stars last night well pretty. 8 deg. 7.30a.m some sunny spells but cloudy too today max 18/19 the parky sse breeze seems to have dropped off and milder 14 deg tonight. Met.ie say storm to far out to forecast and other sites downplaying as click bait so who knows.
On 31 Aug 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR ALL THE COMMS! Interesting and informative. =+=+=+= NOW A VITAL REMINDER. Hurry Hurry Hurry Hurry GET YOUR NEW END SUMMER DEAL while it's still on - ENDING TODAY 31st (Allow Usa time plus a bit) GoGoGo Home page www.WeatherAction.com and use link on RHS or Buy-Forecasts button => Now get 12mth subs B+I, Eu, Usa; 45d, 30d for price of 5 = 58%OFF! Subscribe now to ALL-WINTER-NOW 33%OFF BI Usa Eu. Preparedness is the key to mindfullness. PASS IT ON. Even if you don't buy now FIND SOMEONE WHO WILL. All subs now start from where any existing one ends / any overlaps gain sub extensions. THE TIME IS NOW!
On 31 Aug 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) 45 d sub wrote:
August ends as a dry month, drier than July for here 30.4 mm of rain. Unlike July, the rain has been lighter and fallen on more days( compared to July downpours we experienced) Strangelyfor August We saw our second windiest day of the year here , on Sat 15th as Ernesto blew through in the afternoon.
Piers , still not got access to the Sept forecast, could you or the blog moderator email me it while access is sorted. Thanks
On 31 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, autumnally misty and then slowly clearing to leave a beautiful sunny and blustery day with a strong S’ly wind and a max temp of 19˚, even warmer out of the wind. Calmer evening with 12˚ at 9pm. Great weather for the grain harvest
On 31 Aug 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Warm autumn days very cool nights here so we actually lit a fire.Plenty of rain and the grass is again green and growing furiously.
This Autumn seems more bountiful in the veg/fruit gardens and hedgerows ,is this Mother Nature reacting from the tough summer or anticipating another harsh winter?
So, thinking ahead I ebayed some snow shoe grippers,a wind up lantern and radio , now I just need some long woollen socks.
On 31 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
There was no heatwave at 7:30am this morning I can tell you. Walking the dog up a steep sided narrow valley and my hands were going numb. I couldn't believe how cold it was. A real icy breeze too. Lots of fog around which was very slow to clear; plenty still lingering around 10am. Nice sunny day though, so I guess in the heat-trap of old London town it could seem quite warm.
I wonder if the far north of Scotland will get some seriously early snow flurries by the end of September? The speed at which temperatures have fallen, nothing would surprise me.
On 31 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Foggy this morning and cool but the sun came through and a nice day so far. Should be a nice evening for football. Joe Bastardi has commented that he has seen patterns common with 1962 and some of us know where that went. If we did a frozen winter lasting into April we will be on the brink for power cuts as we lose the gas and electricity interconnectors from 30 March. Interesting timing.
On 30 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30 with a chilly W’ly wind but still followed by a beautiful sunny day, mellow fruitfulness & all that, max temp here 20˚, a bit cooler inland near Aboyne - which is often the coolest or warmest of Britain on certain days, was about 1˚ min temp a few weeks back - less windy in afternoon, 9˚ at 9pm.
On 30 Aug 2018, Ray wrote:
Don't know if its been noted on here already, but Big Joe Bastardi has recently gone public with a stormy and increasingly cold & snowy winter 2018/19 forecast for most of the U.S - In fact, given his own South America linking analogues, he fears it may well be a VERY cold U.S. winter.
On 30 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
It is the mere occurrence of snow that in what the alarmists claim is the warmest period since records began that is the notable thing. A pleasant day so far with blue sky and sunshine but is only 66F so far in the City and that is cool for a summer's day. I suggested before that the cold Atlantic might be pulling temperature down when the systems come in from the west. By contrast during the heatwave Joe Bastardi pointed out that they were crossing the only warm patch in the Atlantic.
On 30 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ireland could be hit by the effects of a storm as strong or stronger than Ophelia in the coming fortnight is the news today, apparently tropical cyclone in N Atlantic with a central pressure of 943mb equiv. to cat.4 whats your take Piers is it possible to cause disruption in time for your Sept. R4 period and therefore more ramped up than met forecasters predict?
On 30 Aug 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry, a translation from July 2018 monthly report of Swiss Avalanche Service (www.slf.ch):
1) Three precipitation events had snow falling above 2900m, 3200m and 3000m.
2) Freezing point rarely below 3500m and often above 4000m (graph supplied in article).
3) April-July 2018 was the fourth driest+warmest since 1864 when records began.
4) Of all the automatic snow measurement stations above 2000m in the SLF network, almost 100% had snow beginning of May, c. 70% had snow beginning of June, 10% had snow beginning of July and all were snow-free around July 15th.
So Switzerland has had a similar summer to SE England in statistical terms.
On 30 Aug 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry at nearly 3000m atop the Zugspitze you can get snow any day of the year. Nothing unusual about that event: if you have been climbing in the Alps in summer you know all about that. Snow down to 2000m is not unusual, it is below 1000m that only occurs occasionally. There was a dusting in Salzburgerland that low, but nothing like the 1981 event.
Just weather, not median weather, but certainly within the envelope of normality.
On 29 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ps cheers Kim for info back 😉
Also interesting reading all the comments on berries, have been looking into all the different berries as happened to get back into eating some Blueberries whilst blitzing up a few to put in some natural unsweetened yoghurt for the tiny one, our son has taken a liking to them too, must have a look at the Aronia sounds good. Got back into mixed seeds too lately and tried Chia seeds for the first time, they appear to give a boost of energy and good for workout or running days.
On 29 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
7 deg early this morn. Felt fresh and autumnal nice clear start and some good sunny spells warming it up to max 18 by lunch time. Cloud moved on in as the day moved on. 10 deg with a dew point of 8 at 11pm looks like 6 again overnight and we have just succumb to flicking on the heating for the tiny one overnight so it comes on if needed, cold titchy feet this morning told us the time hath come despite the calendar, also first time the bedroom has registered 16 deg since early May, those carefree days of covers off seeming like a distant memory already :-) We too have weather forecasts of heatwave on the horizon in the news..
On 29 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overnight rain followed by a nice sunny day with an occasionally blustery W’ly wind, ideal for the big painting job we had to do, max temp 21˚ and still 12˚ by 9pm.
On 29 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Did you say heatwave Gerry? I just let the dog up the garden as of 8pm and couldn't believe how cold it was. Can't see the leaves staying green for long now.....It was warm in the sun earlier but what's new?
On 29 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
No sign of the heatwave on the forecast so far with a cool cloudy morning running into rain on the way into London and finally clearing to give sunny spells. Just up to 64F so far. I am always loathe to criticise as Piers operates on nothing like the budget of others but having the 45 day forecast only just appear instead of the stated 15th does make it of questionable use for planning ahead. it seems that the fluffy white global warming is alive and well in the Alps with a fall of TEN inches on the Zugspitze - Germany's highest mountain. I had 4ins of snow there in a summer in the late 90s. And yet this is the warmest period evah so they claim. It also seems snow is coming to some of the US states as well. And in Kerala, the floods seem to have a human element in that 80+ rivers have dams and the opening of the gates has made it all worse. Bad management often crops up where rivers are controlled.
On 29 Aug 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
Glad we made the most of the heatwave when it was here :) Since last post we had a few sunny days lots of rain on n off to green everything back up some windyish spells and a cooler few autumn type nights recently, back to rain tonight & 12 deg. Just after midnight.
On 28 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, bright morning but cloudy afternoon, 18˚ max which was not bad, SW’ly breeze, 12˚ at 10pm.
On 28 Aug 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Hi Piers I renewed my 45d subscription on Saturday but messed up the log in. I sent you an email on Sunday asking if you could arrange for it to reset the user name. Can you sort this please, I'm planning some out door work later in month but could do with the forecast to assist planning thanks bill
On 27 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Sloes can be used in beer to make something similar to kriek. Spot on forecast for the weekend with rain passing over yesterday and then clearing today. Not much sun though but at least our local show got a good turnout today judging by the queues leaving the car parks.
On 27 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, feeling cold but the bright morning soon put paid to that, in spite of a light NW’ly breeze it got up to 22˚ max, cloud cover in the afternoon but still 13˚ at 10pm. == Mark, you’re right but it has to be well into autumn before sloe lose their sour/bitter taste, I do remember some years ago eating a few towards the end of October. == RON, yes, I know about chokeberry, I first heard about this bush from my cousin in the French-speaking part of Switzerland where it is referred to as Aronia.
On 27 Aug 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Piers,
You should perhaps pull your Europe 45 day service. It has only properly hit the streets ( in the middle of the preceding month) a couple of times since I subscribed. Just call it what it is .... a 30 day projection published at the end of the month.
Paddy, Russ, Ron,
Eating raw sloes in the autumn whilst on a ramble is not such an ordeal. Quite nice really. And they make excellent jam filling for Bakewell Tart like puddings. Just squeeze the flesh through a colendar after cooking and stir in some sugar.
On 27 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: note your comments on Sloes and I remind you that the common name for Aronia is 'Chokeberry'., but OK if you tun them into jams, muffins, chutneys or into a liqueur!
On 26 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, overcast and cool, rain setting in shortly after and continuing through most of the morning, drier interlude after midday with a max temp of 16˚, rain again from 5pm into the evening, 10˚ at 10.30pm, very autumnal. == Russ, sloe are so astringent they’ll close every orifice in your body and possibly all the doors in your house :-), frost on them is definitely good advice.
On 26 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Thanks for the link Paddy......... There's a place 10 miles from us set in a deep and narrow valley where there are about 15 million tons of Sloe berries (slight exaggeration). They are fat and dark and they look ripe but it is said you must leave them until the first frosts. Some say that picking when the right colour then freezing them will mimic frost and reduce any bitterness. Any advice on Sloes?....... We missed out on the Hazelnuts again - bumper crop too - due to some locals stripping the whole place, which they do every year. A case of critical timing. If I were to use the car to check them several times a week, it would cost more in fuel than it would to buy the nuts. Lots of lovely rain today for several hours.
On 25 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, not surprising in view of the N’ly wind but turning into a sunny if blustery day with a shower every now and then. With a max temp of 18˚ it actually was a very pleasant autumn day with a clear and cool evening, 9˚ at 9pm. == Well connected, Russ, I thought of that similarity as well after I had posted, both of the same cloth.
On 25 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Beebomet made me think of Baphomet. Many similarities between the two organisations especially when considering the bee prefix! Birds of a feather 'swarm' together, in a manner of speaking.
On 24 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C overnight, 9˚ at 7.30, lovely sunny start but we didn’t have long to wait for the first shower, they came and went all day, carried along on a NW’ly breeze but were not too heavy, so it was possible to get on with outside work, max temp 18˚ and warmer in sheltered parts, lovely almost full moon tonight, 9˚ at 10pm. == RON, thanks, thought so, many shrubs & trees need frost to germinate. Russ: go here for juice http://www.aroniaberriesuk.co.uk/
On 24 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye, I usually plant them late September. You can expect germination April-July!! They're infamous for erratic germination. Still an autumn feel here. Like the term 'Beebomet'--a good successor species to Mobeeb. Still sounds Star Trek/Dr Who bad guys.
On 24 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Thanks for the health tip of eating aronia berries. Being officially old now, I guess it's something I ought to be ingesting. Being a veggiesaurus I already eat loads of fruit but mostly berries as these are high in essential nutrients......... I concur that the Met kept predicting widespread rain, heavy too, and after about 5 or 6 wrong forecasts we eventually saw some steady drizzle. I'm not sure about those bonuses they keep getting for accuracy but if I were paid bonuses for getting my job right, I'd be a millionaire by now but isn't that what you are paid for in the first place? If I got paid for getting things wrong all the time like the Met do, why, life would be awesome every day without even trying!! Damn! Should have been a meteorologist....... Not sure what happened to the heatwave lasting until October either...that was a very bold prediction for the UK... d:^)
On 23 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, brrr (well, relatively), SW’ly wind all day, according to the Beebomet we had a 95% chance of heavy rain all morning but we had not a drop, whereas the afternoon which was supposed to be sunny had quite a downpour for a while, though it brightened up nicely after 3pm, followed by a glorious evening - we can see stars again - and 14˚ at 10pm. == RON, thanks for the info - would autumn be the best time to sow them so they can get the frost to germinate? I ordered some just now.
On 23 Aug 2018, DaveT wrote:
Still no sign of the September 45 day Europe forecast. We're on the boat to Bilboa Sunday evening and it would be nice to know what the weather will be like for riding the Harley back up through France...
On 23 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: I grow them from seed. You can get 1000 seeds for a tenner and 5,000 for 20 quid from saletastic.co.uk. It'll be at least 2 seasons before you get fruit. You can also get potted plants from various online source at various prices.
On 23 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Huge offshore earthquake recorded in Oregon. R period at work?
On 23 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I am already laughing and have not even yet read any of the government's 'no deal' papers as news from Paul Homewood of another failed attempt to sail the North West Passage comes to an early end due to...I think you can guess...too much ice! LOL Allegedly they learnt lessons but as we have seen with Brexit some people are willfully ignorant. As with many things, the ozone hole monitoring has barely scratched the surface of time so we have no idea what 'normal' or 'average' means which allowed the scam to unfold. Cloudy this morning with rain just coming after I got to the office. But now that has cleared and it is bright with some sun but just 64F. Looking ahead on Ventusky using GFS, GEM and ICON I found it odd that where one model has rain all over the SE for Sunday another can have none at all. Am I wrong to think that they should be closer? Or is the SE too small an area for them to be close?
On 22 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
16˚C at 7.30, it was even 18˚ in town earlier on when I had to take my wife to the airport, light rain off and on all morning with practically no wind, so it didn’t move along much. SW’ly breeze set in later in the morning and by mid afternoon the sun finally came out, max temp 18˚, clouding over again by 8pm, 13˚ at 9pm, definite autumnal feel. == RON, thanks for the info, I’ve been looking up aronia’s health benefits, I think they are tailor made for us oldies :-) - where did you get your plants from? == Mark Hall, thanks for the info re CFCs, didn’t know that, yet another instance where we’ve been had, I’m sure you didn’t find that out through the mainstream media.
On 22 Aug 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
The original Ozone Hole scam was easily debunked by Sally Baliunas and can be seen as the precursor to the modern CO2 fraud.
It was convenient for Dow Chemicals and the Dupont Corporation to push the lie as patents on CFCs were about to expire. So it was that two of their scientists alerted the world to this "catastrophe".
But in reality Ozone is created in the plasma bursts provided by lightning in the atmosphere. And destroyed by Stratospheric cooling. Nothing to do with CFCs and anyway these compounds are supremely soluble in water and are washed out of the atmosphere in no time.
Despite these facts the Montreal Protocal was adopted in 1987 and Dow/Dupont were able to "save the world" with their new HFC patents!
Hooray for progress!
On 22 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Yes they do and I was picking some yesterday that is going into my neighbour's gin liqueur ( very health giving, you know). They're very tough indeed and can grow in quite poor soils. They are easy to grow from seed, but the germination process is weird and all over the place. They are also easy to transplant. The autumn colours are gorgeous too.
On 21 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, still, overcast and getting foggier as the morning wore on, SE’ly wind starting up and we had 3 Ds day: damp, drizzly & dreich, this went on until about 7pm when it started clearing and warming up, max temp 17˚ during the day and then still 16˚ at 9pm & feeling really mild. ==RON: does your aronia produce harvestable berries? I have a Swiss cousin who swears by their antioxidant & other powers. If they fruit well in Highland Perthshire they would do even better here.
On 21 Aug 2018, Paul Bedfordshire wrote:
App forecasting cloudy for today even at Lunchtime. Bit odd as it was broken cloud with sun shining through. Now at home with virtually cloudless sky when forecast overcast all day and much hotter than mainstream forecasts. Except one of course that was spot on from a month out
On 21 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye Euonymus, Sorbus commixta Asian maples and Aronia all colouring up extra early this year ( in part from long dry spell?) Even Metbeeb mentioning first taste of frost at the end of the week. Might even be snow for Ben Nevis too. Not likely to last long, but summer is over.
On 21 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Was warm on the way home and even with the windows open in the bedroom it was still 75F on retiring to do a bit of reading. So fan on to lose a bit of heat down to 70F and easier to sleep. Some cloud around to start but a lot more sun now and coming up to 2pm it is 74F in the City. Looking for a pleasant evening to watch football and a good result would be nice. Put a fleece in the car as it will be chilly by half-time.
On 20 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, N’ly breeze & cloudy skies, a definite whiff of autumn, sunny for a couple of hours early afternoon with a max temp of 21˚, but then clouds returned on the back of a strong and cold SWly wind which only abated towards evening, 13˚ at 11pm.
On 20 Aug 2018, Paul Bedfordshire wrote:
https://dailym.ai/2vYulFT "Last blast of summer! Britain is set for rollercoaster week with rainy 60F lows but mid-week high of 82F... and Bank Holiday weekend could be a scorcher"
On 20 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The cloud cleared yesterday afternoon to make it a sunny evening and clear night. Cloud by morning making it warmer and in the City at 2pm it is 74F and a bit humid.
On 20 Aug 2018, stevenwright wright wrote:
sorry to ask but has the 45 day September forecast come out yet
On 19 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, steady rain all morning, cool N’ly breeze, dry after midday, max temp 17˚, down to 13˚ again by 9pm. The dog days of August - not.
On 19 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Breezy and overcast yesterday with the sun only breaking through for a while in the early evening. Cool. Overcast again this morning and more windy than breezy. At 10am it is 65F. The plus side is it is fine weather for outside work and I would rather have the sun next weekend. Without the sun beating down I was able to use the lumber saw to cut up firewood for the coming Winter and then split some wood ready for sawing up. The Mail Weekend had C4's Saving Planet Earth:Fixing A Hole as a pick of the day for yesterday with the comment 'Not so long ago, the hole in the ozone layer was regarded as the biggest threat to Earth's environment there had ever been...' well, until they invented Global Warming. I thought it not a good use of my time to watch it as I suspect it comes from the Warmist camp.
On 18 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, alternately cloudy & sunny with a fresh SW’ly wind but a reasonably warm day with a max temp of 20˚, down to 14˚ by 9.30pm.
On 17 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, a mostly cloudy day with very few sunny intervals and a fresh and cool SW’ly wind, got to 20˚ nevertheless, afternoon and evening being somewhat milder with 14˚ at 10pm.
On 16 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, sunny and windy day from the SW, quite warm with a top temp of 23˚, would have been more but for the wind, shower clouds bubbling up mid afternoon but only a few drops with us, looked darker to the N of us, 11˚ at 10pm.
On 16 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Not much change in the temperature today from alarm time to 2pm. The weather front with the rain is now clearing London to the east and it might even be sunny come home time. Just 63F and the heatwave is just a memory. Still, doesn't stop The Mail giving a full page to the knobhead Micheal Howard - not known as having any skills in meteorology, climatology, or anything really - to spout on about how a bit of warm weather and some fires in dry places where failure to clear the undergrowth has provided an ample fuel source proves global warming is true. Also he tries to claim Baroness Thatcher supported the scam which ignores the fact that in her book she admits she got it wrong and changed her view once she became better informed.
On 16 Aug 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Finally, finally getting a good rainfall event in NW London after 4 months of drought. What good it will do for this years vegetables is unclear. Hopefully celeriac, leeks, potatoes, parsnips and squash will swell happily, but it may have come too late for some.
On 15 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
I find bottles of vodka are a very useful place to store elderberries. Yes, I have had some mouse incursions since moving to my house. You can't beat peanut butter for tempting them into traps and the electrocution tunnel works very well, even leaving burns on the fur of one of them. I think they are either all dead or I have blocked their route in as there were none even during the 'beast from the east' this year.
On 15 Aug 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Thanks for all the wasp comments folks,after looking on YT I'm glad we havn't got aisian
Hornets😨I'll let them gorge on the greengages
As they have worked so hard keeping down the veg pests.So now the first mouse has just got into the house (he has been ejected)but this is usually the first sign of autumn in these parts,purhaps he knows something,so we shall name him Piers
On 15 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, fresh SW’ly wind but feeling quite mild out of it and getting to a max of 20˚ n spite of it, cloudy for most of the day bar some late sunshine after 8pm, 15˚ at 9pm.
On 15 Aug 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Dear Maria do not take the Elderberry syrup untill fully weaned,and the juice must be boiled,(with or without sugar)Ref =The Healing Power Of Celtic Plants.
Angela Paine.
ISBN 978-1-905047-62-8
This is a very interesting book and covers the scientific research on the plants.
I shall be making the syrup to boost our immune system for the winter,
Bon courage!💕
On 15 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Cool start with cloud at home but bright with sunny spells in the City. Alarm time temp 58F and now at 2pm 71F. The Mail claims that it could hit 81F in town this afternoon - well it has a long way to go in the next couple of hours so looks unlikely. Global warming attack dog Bob Ward has had his IPSO complaint against Booker rejected. The subject was the recent cold US winter which was one of the couple of recent ones that were 'disappeared' by NOAA as part of their fiddling. The funny thing was Booker's piece referred to other warmists far from claiming the cold winter never happened but that is was proof of global warming!
On 14 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Drizzly at times a glimpse or 2 of sun but mostly cloudy and v. humid max 22 deg 15 deg now at 11.40pm this seems to be the theme last couple days, heres hoping for a return to full sun :)
On 14 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, bright, sunny but coolish morning, brief period of light rain around 2pm and getting markedly muggy & warm with a max of 23˚, SW’ly breeze all day, still 16˚ at 10pm, feels like summer has returned for a little bit.
On 14 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire (subscriber) wrote:
Hmmm. We will see....https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/14/exceptionally-hot-weather-predicted-2022-according-new-study/
On 14 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Cooler weather continuing. 58F this morning rising to 72F at 2pm in the City. Lawn now looking like it is worth dusting off the mower to give it a cut. If you have fruit then then the wasps are probably less welcome than if you are growing brassicas.
On 13 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚ C at 7.30, rain & fog from the start, had to go to Dundee this morning, rain all the way there and halfway back, brightening up somewhat in the afternoon with a max temp of 21˚ and a constant ESE’ly wind, 14˚ at 10pm and still, feeling mild. ==Russ, I don’t know what to say as this is not my speciality, however, waterlogged fields is also not good, that could be the reason for the initial stunted growth, plants off to a bad start and could not be righted by however much sunshine. Straw will be in short supply this winter, that’s for sure. Waterlogging can also cause the roots of plants to shut down so that now water circulates internally and then they look as if they were suffering under drought conditions, I’ve seen this when we used to grow acres of lettuce.
On 13 Aug 2018, Andy B 45D wrote:
Weather forecast about on track for August heavy rain a bit further south than forecast we have had 40mm here in last 24 hrs, I think it was the R5 effect
On 13 Aug 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR COMMS ALL. On wasps, there were quite a few on Margate beach on Sat 12th Aug; not sure if it's more or less than normal. I don't remember any when last there July 2015. +=+=+=+ NOW HURRY HURRY HURRY ONLY HOURS TO GO FOR AMAZING DEALS 50%/67%OFF 6m/12m subs for ALL 45d/30d services BI Eu Usa AND SPECIAL DEAL BI (or Eu or Usa) ALL-WINTER-NOW, Save £21 - ABOUT TO END. GO4IT & Pass it on. Ezxtensions given to all overlaps. This is Must-Have deal for Must-Have forecasts. Thank you
On 13 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.... some detail. Many crops like wheat and barley were late growing due to waterlogged ground and cold winds. Many fields had stunted growth, noticeably shorter than previous years. But as soon as the heatwave hit everything started to ripen, or at least it looked that way as the crops turned golden brown very quickly. At least one field of barley had green stems but golden tops for several weeks. But after what seemed like an eternity, the crops were still there, and this has left me thinking that the unusual weather has spoiled the crops, so if they are to be used for animal feed say, it perhaps won't matter much when it's harvested. When the rain did come, the farmers seemed reluctant to rush out and harvest. Do you go with the spoiled crop hypothesis?
On 12 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sorry Kim re read thought you said not many wasps but yeah makes a change here as we usually get a fair amount!
On 12 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ps seen very few wasps here too kim, also quick question can you use the elderberry syrup when your feeding a baby or is it best to avoid until fully weaned and onto alternative milk after a year old?
On 12 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, overcast and a SE’ly wind, which was the theme of the day, bits & pieces of rain from 10.30 onwards, max temp 16˚, quite a change from what we have become used to - concur with you there, Ron, first frost can often come late August - , 13˚ at 9pm. == Russ, re cereal crops, according to a farmer I spoke to some weeks ago, if there is not enough moisture while the grain is setting during the green growing phase, no amount of rain will make any difference once it begins to ripen, so not sure why the farmers down your way waited for the rain, that usually means additional drying costs. == Kim in Calais, we had very few wasps this year, whereas last year I had to destroy 8 bikes round the farm; I don’t mind one or two but that was too many. Also very few crane flies (Daddy Longlegs) so far.
On 12 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire (subscriber) wrote:
Don't knock the wasps Kim. One year on my allotment I was pulling my hair out over caterpillars and sundry other brassica eating insects. Luckily there was a wasp nest nearby and they did a better job than any chemical could have in days!
On 12 Aug 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
I believe 0 deg. In Co Down last night, brrr a reminder of summer being short but sweet. Been busy getting ready for family arriving from Cornwall so they all arrived safely I think during an R5 and said the ferry was a much smoother sailing than they had anticipated. Some heavy downpours here though. Humid and light showers by day glimpses of sun and blue sky and cloud and 21/22 cooler by night a few nights ago and 6deg reached one early morning. Meat
and salad to save calories to re live my childhood with some clotted cream, best cream ever invented :-)
On 12 Aug 2018, Kim in Calais wrote:
Lovely weather now, warm,sunny but not screaming hot,and a few showers,best harvest ever on our veg garden, beets,cabbages,leeks,courgetts,carrots and both French and runner bean (just to be on the safe side)and it looks like a bumper crop of raspberries, We think this has been helped by a good covering of wood chips put on when WA predicted the long dry spell,the plants gave a visible sigh of relief,we have yet to discover the spuds,lots of butterflies, bees and unfortunately wasps,we don't spray here,does anyone know why so many wasps this year?If anyone's interested Elderberries make a powerful antioxidant syrup for the winter,
On 12 Aug 2018, Steve,Dorset, UK sub wrote:
Piers summer forecasting has been quite brilliant it has enabled me to keep up with the garden nicely, the hosepipes have had a rest this last few days which is good, dull overcast day with drizzle and the odd burst of heaver rain all doing wonders for the grass which is getting greener as i write, i was cutting the butterfly field when the weather changed it turned from very dusty to now wet have to wait for the return of the warm dry piers has mentioned, enjoy.
On 12 Aug 2018, Andy B 45D wrote:
Weather forecast about on track for August heavy rain a bit further south than forecast we have had 40mm here in last 24 hrs, I think it was the R5 effect
On 12 Aug 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes, quite autumnal here, but it's less than 3 weeks from autumn in any case. As my old uncle once said to a friend in Cheshire 'aye, but in Scotland you know when it's August'.
On 12 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paul.....thanks for clearing that up. Rusty as a graveyard gate I am.......Paddy.... no apogeloguise nesesery. I was only taking the pee out of my own inability to come up with something more coherent d;^) ....... Ooh it's gone very wet, with steady but very light rain, on and off for many hours. Looks like more but heavier stuff on the way for later on Sunday afternoon....... Very strange watching the cereal crops from week to week. Many of them seeming to ripen early but in the drought conditions. Farmers apparently waited until some rain fell before harvesting. I can only assume the plants needed moisture to complete the ripening cycle....true or false?
On 11 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire (subscriber) wrote:
A most pleasant day here and on the edge of the west midlands with warm sunshine all morning giving way to increasing cloud but still well and truly warm enough in shirtsleeves in an open section of a non league football ground. Rain at the end of the day but not excessively heavy. The latin is literally 'weather lies must be destroyed' and was inspired by Piers 'the global warming hoax must be destroyed' which I suspect was itself inspired by Cato the elder who ended all his speeches with Carthago Delenda Est (Carthage Must Be Destroyed).
On 11 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, a fairly cloudy day but with nice bits of sunshine in between and a max temp of 20˚, NW- SE’ly breeze, dry in spite of occasional really dark clouds, 13˚ at 8.30pm. == Russ, I was referring to northern Britain rather than oop north, I do apogeloguise fro mah errant; being thick all the same though :-)
On 11 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Autumnal. 10.30am and just 62F. After nudging 90 in the City earlier it only managed mid 60s yesterday with the rain. Thurs evening a storm passed right over my house. Short and sharp with thunder and lightning. With the supposed increase in extreme weather Lords lost a whole day of play in a test match for 17 yrs. After seeing the pic of the lake yesterday all credit to the ground staff for mopping it up and having good drainage - and to Anderson for not needing many overs either. When Joe Bastardi was pointing out the warm area in the Atlantic that was providing our hot weather he also showed that the majority was below the anomaly point. Does this have something to do with the fresh weather that has come in from the west? The flash floods in France have come in a dry arid region where there is quite a rocky landscape with little vegetation leading to fast run-off into the rivers. No doubt the reason will be global warming again.
On 11 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy..... Errrm| Someone got the landfall of a storm wrong maybe? I haven't done Latin for, let me see, 44 years....who are you? What medication? Where am I.......?...... That chilly breeze while out at 9am is a real blessing. Sat waiting on the platform for an hour for a train yesterday at 7am, I had goosebumps and wished I'd worn more than a short sleeved shirt. Had torrential rain and thunder on the A14 around 3:30pm yesterday. My colleague went home by a different route and suffered a big diversion due to floods. I drove through one of the Met Offices heavy showers yesterday for about an hour. That's some shower! It even pushes the boundaries of the term 'a prolonged shower'...
On 11 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire (subscriber) wrote:
After ignoring the mainstream weather forecast and going out without a coat for the day, this was fully justified as I sat on the station platform basking in the "unexpectedly" hot sun
On 10 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C overnight, 10˚ at 7.30, sunny morning with a SW’ly breeze, temps nicely getting to 22˚ by midday but then cloud started moving in from the west and we had a short bit of rain around 4pm, not as much as further south, sunny end to the day though, 10˚ at 10pm. == Paul, translate please, for northern thickos :-)
On 10 Aug 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
HELLO ALL! Brilliant comms as always. Thank you. NOW SPECIAL FOR YOU TODAY ONLY ALL 30d & 45d BI Eu Usa are 50%OFF for 6month subs and 67%OFF for 12month subs; AND ALL-WINTER-NOW-SERVICES FOR B+I and (NEW!!!) EUROPE and USA are only £99 before prices rise to £120. Overlaps with existing subs get extensions eg if you get a 12mth 30d BI sub and have all winter BI already the 30d will continue to October 2019. Do it now and Pass it on Thank you
On 09 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C overnight, 9˚ at 7.30, so rather cooler than of late but still a max temp of 23˚, quite a sunny day but also with cloud cover from time to time, SW - NW’ly breeze, 13˚ at 9.30pm. Typical August kind of day with a hint of autumn in the air.
On 09 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
I think Piers summary on the 'latest' part of the website is better expressed in Latin "Tempestate perjuris delenda est."
On 09 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Don't throw that old air-bed away just yet.... >> https://youtu.be/rdEqwXfyMkw <<
On 09 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Piers....looks like your giant hail is already here matey. Not in the UK just yet but some places are already experiencing some seriously scary destruction events. This from the Ice Age Now site >> https://youtu.be/8XwNs1y3H9A << No scaremongering required...this is reality central!!
On 09 Aug 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Re: Latest climate change lies and cover-up. West Antarctica is underlain by a chain of active Volcanoes. It is very much like Iceland with massive amount of geothermal activity. This leads to heating and melting of the ice deep below the surface and formation of gigantic ice tunnels and caverns that are navigable from the ocean by submarine. The geothermal melting also explains the ice sheet calving and icebergs.
On 08 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, reasonably sunny morning with temps going up to 23˚ max, dark clouds moving in from the NW by early afternoon, giving prolonged showers for a while, then a sunny & clear evening but feeling markedly cooler with 10˚ at 10pm. == This past Sat/Sun we had an absolute invasion of hover flies - has anyone else experienced that? Russ, all things being equal we are also going to have an amazing blackberry crop this year, haven’t seen the berries well formed so early for a long time.
On 08 Aug 2018, Ronnie wrote:
Couldn't agree with you more, Russ; windmills are the Devil's Vent-Axia !!
On 08 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
"Still, on the bright side it should take care of solar panels." ...... Now there's a thought! Oh now you got me thinking Gerry. Wind farm scenario. Hail the size of baseballs? Rotating fan blade tips in a hail storm....maybe 200mph? >> https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-wildlife.php << Then wouldn't the blades act like huge baseball bats and fire off hail balls like mini cannon balls in all directions....and at what speed? Maybe followed by >> https://youtu.be/l3tqjuvy7i0 << A hail storm like the one in the BBC video clip could wipe out an entire solar farm. They should install catch nets over the panels. You read it here first!
On 08 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Much fresher today and in the City it is just 71F after reaching 89F yesterday. Our football team will appreciate the change for tonight's game. Ice age hail - I recall the anecdotal evidence of hailstones the size of milk bottles which you feel has got to hurt. Then look around at all the new glass buildings and wonder how they will be if hit. Still, on the bright side it should take care of solar panels. Elderberries are coming on strong now in addition to the blackberries. The raspberries suffered without water though.
On 08 Aug 2018, Digitalis (the Netherlands) wrote:
Finally the heat broke here, and we had some thunder and rainshowers during the night. Tomorrow a lot of rain is expected, and on Friday possibly a storm.
Many things have died in my garden and the forest where I live, and wildlife has suffered badly. Let's hope enough rain will fall for some of the crops to be saved, as well as to allow regrowth for wildlife before winter sets in.
On 08 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
The scariest memory I have from reading about the little ice age was about the 9 inch pieces of ice, killing cattle stone dead in the fields, and hail so large it was ripping off all the small branches and foliage from the trees. If this isn't a sign that we are heading for a repeat scenario then...... >>
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/45106699/hailstorm-kills-two-animals-and-injures-14-people-at-a-zoo-in-colorado << ........ Fantastic blackberry crop from our garden again. Two years running.
On 07 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, cooler day with a mostly SW’ly breeze but it still got to 24˚, quite sunny at times, 13˚ by 10pm. == Rhys, I think I pointed out earlier that even though we also had a drought (broken now) we did have a lot of moisture reserve in the soil so it probably wasn’t as bad as down your way. While we’ve had temp peaks which resembled the Mediterranean, being so far north we also had cool nights and being close to the sea fog & haar. The last few days have occasionally had a twinge of autumn in them, which is quite normal. From experience I concur that one can’t rely on what might have worked years ago, on top of that there is always the one or other crop that fails for whatever reason. Celeriac is out for us, would have to be started in Feb and grown in a cold frame, sweet corn & outdoor tomatoes ditto. Parsnips are brilliant this year, carrots fell victim to the fly, though not the ones in our veg tunnel which is only a couple of 100 yards away.
On 07 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
It would seem that the MetO were wrong again as far as where I have been today. Watching the radar the rain fizzled out on the approach to London and only a few drops fell. Walking from the station and arriving home there was some rain and even a clap of thunder but nothing worthy of a weather warning. Just after 10pm and there is steady rain. At least it has cooled off with the heat not being trapped by the cloud.
On 07 Aug 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Severe Weather Warning issued for SE England by the Met Office from 4pm onwards but storms are already smashing into Hampshire and W Sussex (as at 1pm) and are hurtling towards Greater London and the Home Counties. An interesting afternoon / evening awaits. Oh look, we're in a R3 period, that explains it. :-)
On 07 Aug 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
Wheat price futures are already around £200 per ton what price will it be this time next year 3/400/ton
https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/grain-prices-rise-wheat-crop-predicted-lowest-five-years
On 07 Aug 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The MetO have predicted the hot spell will continue until October but even Met Éireann aren't buying it === https://bit.ly/2vmS2Yu === although it is not impossible by any means, especially with Northern blocking+low solar, I trust what Piers has to say rather than late BBQ summer model fodder. In some ways this current spell is reminiscent of 2010 and the West Russian heatwave that broke when Piers predicted in the August.
On 07 Aug 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The warmists are in full propaganda mode following the northern hemisphere heat (in parts) this summer. It doesn't matter that Piers predicted it===https://bit.ly/2MtbYz5===
nor that as Joe B explained the record cooling of the north Atlantic (=tripole)===
https://bit.ly/2MaCAIu===explains the ridge=heat in Europe. Case in point this crap has been the BBC website lead/top story since yesterday===
Climate change: 'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO2 emissions slashed===https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45084144===However, I think in the US strings are being slowly severed so there is hope but also danger. Think about it besides the obvious likes of Gore benefitting who has audited the billions - was it used for "climate" or did it end up funding other things on or off the books? Who is asking questions about where all the money went? I get the feeling lots will be revealed in the months to come and cornered rats on a drinking ship are very dangerous.
On 07 Aug 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Paddy
Your growth experiences in NE Scotland should be compared with mine in NW London.
Here we have had three months of drought with very few rain events. Temperatures have been Mediterranean.
Growth has been very varied. Most beans have failed, peas were average, early potatoes were scabby with poor yields, onions were average but early.
In contrast, radish was stunning, spring lettuce fabulous, early beetroot excellent. Now sweetcorn is incredible, ditto winter squash and soil grown bush tomatoes.
Parsnip and maincrop carrots and betroots should be fine, maincrop potatoes may struggle without heavy rain this week, celery and celeriac should harvest with later rains.
It just shows adaptation is more resilient than dogmatic sticking to what worked years ago.
On 07 Aug 2018, Eastside wrote:
"man made” CO2 contribution to global co2">
Problem is the subsidy system.
Academics are paid to use junk data to produce junk simulations.
No amount of obvious common sense or comparison will get them out of their love affair with subsidy money, their number crunchers, & their media hacks like Harrabin & Mcgrath. It's a self perpetuating cycle.
Piers is wasting his time.
You can tell them about "the medieval warm period", the 1st century AD (about 2C warmer than now), the fact we're still emerging from a little ice age with Maunder+Spohrer to worry about, the change in the height of Scotland+the dip in the south coast of England thanks to the loss of weight of ice sheets (not sea level rise),the dearth of big volcanic activity, low hurricane activity..the largely unaffected polar ice sheet thickness, & Vikings in a warm America+a fact the NW passage was often open to shipping before
All you will ever get, is the warmists inc the BBC going into denial, claiming all kinds o
On 06 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, partly cloudy and feeling mild and then gearing up to yet another scorcher with a max temp of 27˚ with nicely cooling winds from a variable SW-NW’ly direction, 16˚ at 10pm. == Walking through the garden in the twilight tonight and looking at the stunning growth of flowers and veg is a fab experience; been digging first & second early tatties (potatoes) today, very pleasant job in the sunshine, late main crop usually happens in October when it is cooler and wetter. It’s really been an amazing season for food growing, and it’s not finished yet.
On 06 Aug 2018, BillS ( N E Wales) wrote:
Sorry to go on , but here’s my questionsto these anti co2 campaigners:-what is so special about the small , the very small “ man made” CO2 contribution to global co2 .Does it behave so differently to themuch much larger fraction of the existing non man made co2 contribution ? How exactly do these few additional co2 molecules in the environment differ to the vast majority of natural co2 molecules to make the scientists think the temperature is set to rise at an exponential rate? Any one know?
On 06 Aug 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Of course you can choose any power source you want to produce electricity. Everything comes with a price. A balanced portfolio including nuclear renewables and fossil used to be the Uks stance.renewables admittedly is more recent The variability catered 4 national security and allowed for experimentation in new energy. The main point I think worth making is regarding the fossil energy generated electricity. CO2 seen as the demon gas ,where a few ppm that’s parts per million( the same quantity as a few seconds in 11.5days), yes a few ppm is seen as the cause of the changes in climate. What next will we be be blocking volcano eruptions to prevent co2 . no you can’t tax that , no you can’t make any money from them. No You can t make a political career from that. For what it’s worth I think new energy from plastic is the way forward , perhaps we would already have this if the likes of Thatcher ( and Blair) hadn’t done their bit in culling the bright ingenuity of the nationalised industrie
On 06 Aug 2018, Bill S (N E Wales ) wrote:
You’ve contradicted yourself Eastside, it is to do with heat . I used to work on nuclear plant , shutting down isn’t taken lightly due to various reasons All plants run on cooling water discharge permits , some allowing differential temperatures between inlet and outlet cooling water with a maximum discharge temperature. Many plants run on a 95 th percentile dischargetemp so some extended periods of heat can be allowed. It probably got to the point where condenser vacuum couldn’t be sustained or it would exceed its discharge permit Search and you will see some uk power plants also have been in same scenario. A bit like the 2003 heatwave. Nothing to do with ecolunies just the power of the sun
On 06 Aug 2018, eastside wrote:
"Reuters reporting EDF shutting down some reactors at its plants in France due to the heat."
Nothing to do with the heat.
The problem repeatedly is temperature gradients.
Eg. Fessenheim is linked to small tributaries of the Rhine.
If you had been there recently you will see temps of 40C in the Alsace plain.
Being as electricity demand in August is pretty low it avoids jacking up the local stream water temps an extra 10C.
The people running NPP are in fact quite eco-friendly - cos they can.
You wouldn't dream of taking 4 NPPs offline in January when it's -10C would you?
Of course the eco-loonies who have been desperate to shut a perfect working (but quite old) NPP such as Fessenheim, won't try to force the issue when power demand is through the roof in a winter anticylone, when there's no wind & very little solar....of course not!
I hear today on France-Info some dangerous lunatics claiming they can go to 100% renewables WITHOUT NPP in the next 10-15yrs.
Dunno how t
On 06 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
If a volcano is going to pop then solar minimum is the time to do it. I wonder how many are in the 'overdue' part of their cycle. Reuters reporting EDF shutting down some reactors at its plants in France due to the heat. chance for us to sell them some power via the interconnector before it shuts down in March. The nighttime cooling is making the warm days bearable although in my office today there appears to be a lack of cooling and it is unpleasant. Cool start to the day but blue sky and sun all the way 84F in the City at 2pm.
On 06 Aug 2018, eastside wrote:
The current heatwave generating temps of 36-40C+ in the Rhone valley (France) is coming to an end wednesday.
This is a relief.
The temperatures have been in the mid - high 30C for an extended period of more than 10 days.
As an aside,- is there a big eruption due in Lombok?
Samalas volcano is next to Mount Rinjani on Lombok Island in Indonesia, and has just had a 2 very large earthquake swarm, (akin to the events that preceded the AD79 catastrophic eruption of Vesuvius).
Both of these very dangerous volcanoes have caused strong global cooling events in the last 1000 years,- enough for harvests to fail throughout the world and cause famine...
On 05 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Its actually quite clear and cool outside here tonight, would be a nice night to camp out :)
On 05 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last few days have been a mix of sunny and cloudy. Temp around 21 - 23 deg Muggyish and mild overnight half in half out of bed kind of weather, so tired from putting extra effort into exercise and diet and tiny one teething i'm not in bed long enough to notice 😅
On 05 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, partly cloudy and turning into a fairly sunny day with a max temp of 24˚, starting calm and followed by a breeze from a generally S’ly direction, 15˚ at 10pm, slight rain.
On 05 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Well I was hot just watching the football. Water breaks were taken midway through each half. Phone said it 82F so I don't know what it was out in the sun - 90s? Armed with a cup of tea, I found some shade for the second half thanks to a high beech hedge around the ground. At least their main stand provided shade. Goalless draw but absorbing to watch. I bet they will enjoy playing more on Wednesday evening. Nice and cool overnight and so far clear blue skies with a breeze from the east as Gatwick has changed pattern. Patio reading 74F just after 11am.
On 04 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, dull & grey start, staying cloudy all day with a NW’ly breeze - just as well, as we had to host an event in one of our tunnels, it gets up to 35˚ in there when it’s sunny! - and a still respectable max temp of 23˚, short shower of rain but otherwise dry, 16˚ at 9.30pm. == Steve, that quote is priceless, I’ve integrated it into my armoury of useful phrases :-)
On 04 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
The sun is shining, it is 81F so let's start the football season! First match of the season for the boys in the new division and at our new local rivals so off to the match shortly with sun hat and sunglasses. The City reached 89F yesterday afternoon and it was warm into the evening so it was sleep with a big fan running to draw in cooler air until around dawn. More high cloud today but only a slight breeze so I don't envy the players this afternoon. Good start needed and again at our home match this week because believe it or not, the FA Cup starts next Saturday. I guess nobody told International Falls in Minnesota about the 'global' heatwave as overnight temp there was 33F - yep, tad above freezing. Unusual? Guess so since it broke the record of 41F set in 1918. Notice that the difference is not a tenth or a couple of degrees but 8!
On 04 Aug 2018, Steve Dorset.UK sub wrote:
Tom Nelson
@tan123
Climate change is the religion of people who think they're too smart for religion
Spot on.
On 04 Aug 2018, C View wrote:
Shock news . After banging on about the current heat the BBC website has a feature on a major heatwave in the 1800’s which in London was called the great stink. This period saw severe heatwaves in Australia and the USA as well.
On 04 Aug 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Well there's this >> https://bit.ly/2vioET4 << and this >> https://bit.ly/2viqJhN << . I give the direct links so I save Robert some bandwidth plus some people don't trust his site as it's a bit doomsayer'ish! Global Warming, we are told, is 100% true whereas all the blackwashed Global Cooling theories are, we are told, wrong. Welcome to the noughties propaganda war...! .....Quote: "Before you open your mouth to start whining about the "cold" air this morning, I remind you we just experienced the 4th warmest May to July on record... dating back to 1872." ...... Ah! So that would be before mankind could possibly have had an effect via CO2 would it not? Must have been all those hog-roasts and prairie fires...It was also just after the last Little Ice Age ended, so the whole planet was warming.
On 03 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, another scorcher with a max temp of 29˚, wind SW - W - NW by evening, but still 17˚ at 10pm, forecast somewhat cooler & cloudier for tomorrow.
On 03 Aug 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Having just read this article from a farmer on the huge weather related problems farmers are facing https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/03/think-heatwave-just-mild-inconvenience-wait-no-food-plate/ I can't help thinking that Piers would be wise to make his June and July 2018 forecasts free on the website to circulate. The farming community would Im sure be most interested and it might well lead to more subs?
On 03 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Record daily lows are being set in Russia. What? Not mentioned on the BBC. How strange. I presume Russia is getting the jetstream coming from north to south. Joe Bastardi has an interesting post looking at the cold Atlantic and how there is one above average warm area that might just have something to do with making our weather warm. https://patriotpost.us/opinion/57393-europe-heat-wave-questioning-mans-attribution The days when weather forecasts were the result of a meteorologist looking at charts and data and using experience to draft the forecast seem to be long gone as the computer generated highest temp evah from Portugal indicate. Just push a button to load a file and run the model and give out whatever comes out.
On 02 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, mostly sunny with a S’ly breeze, heating up quickly to a max of 28˚, still 19˚ at 9.30pm and still great summer weather for just now…
On 02 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
😊 Humidity rose an hour or so after last post and with it temp. increased making a muggy night. Mostly overcast today with a few sunny breaks also a drizzly afternoon shower max 23 and still 20 at 8.22 pm higher dew point too than recent days. I was also wondering if a very wet Autumn is on the cards..
On 02 Aug 2018, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry..... I saw the Siberia cold too. These extremes are not being reported in a balanced way. That reminds me, I must check on the plume of Arctic air that has been pushing south across Canada and Central US. If it persists, it could produce some prodigious tornado's......Wife and I have been pondering the huge amount of 'die-back' of purple heather on the moors. Thing is, it's only the young stuff, I would say less than 5 years after burning, which has turned a rich copper brown and not flowered. It looks dead. The old, well established stuff is healthy, flowering, with plenty of new growth. We think the timing of the burning was to blame. The young heather doesn't have a deep, well established root system to cope with drought conditions. A vast amount has died off.We saw around 50 acres across a 2 mile long hillside. If the roots are dead then it won't grow back. Any heather experts out there? Is purple heather immortal?
On 02 Aug 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
With the London summer being more and more like 1976, one wonders whether record autumn rainfall is to come?
On 02 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The nights are certainly cool as it was down to 63F last night at bedtime - actually put a t-shirt on and went under the duvet. 54F at alarm time but no fog today and it seemed to warm up quicker. 81F in the City at 2pm. The Mail is squawking on about record heat in Portugal and Spain - presumably not seen the memo saying they got it wrong. Low temperature record set in Siberia for the time of year. So much for the global heatwave.
On 01 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
The GWPF has something to make you laugh from Portugal. Their MetO predicted that tomorrow there would be a record temperature of 50C, surpassing the 47.9C set in 2003. But that was yesterday. Today they have had to admit that it was not true and due to a miscalculation resulting from a statistical method applied to numeric models. And they wonder why they are not trusted.
On 01 Aug 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, fairly sunny morning with the obligate S’ly breeze, max temp a respectable 23˚, clouding over mid afternoon, getting somewhat cooler, drizzle & rain by 6pm, still going now at 9.30pm but not heavy at all, 15˚. == Or veg have done really well this summer with few exceptions because we do have a considerable store of humidity further down, we now have cucumbers and climbing French beans galore out of our veg tunnel, also masses of courgettes coming on after the rains over the weekend. I think it is rare that we get a real drought in our location, too far north, too close to the sea.
On 01 Aug 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL and I like the report of your Veg Maria! REMINDER TO ALL:- THURS AUG 2 IS LAST DAY FOR £99 DEAL FOR ALL-WINTER-NOW on 3rd it goes up to £120. Price includes all updates and does NOT include Aug+Autumn preceding. That's separate sub. ANY SUB THAT OVERLAPS WITH Dec Jan Feb gets extension when you buy ALL-WINTER-NOW. So if eg you already have sub to 45d+30d going to say March inc then that would get extended to June inc. It's an exciting forecast. Thanks Piers
On 01 Aug 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last few days have been cool cloudy with showers, esp.today windy out as well today and actually feels cooler 17 deg with a real feel of 15. As per PC forecast. Brief sunny spells yesterday actually trimmed ( was hardly a cut 😅) the lawn first time in 5 weeks as driest day of the last few, just starting to green up again, lucky we only lost a few patches to heat. Also good chance for kids and I to lug down the heavy fallen remaining big branches from the winter storms. Loads of Blackberry flowers, shame I think Raspberries no go this year due to unusual lack of rainfall. Courgettes we grew in the tunnel have been so tasty as are carrots cucumbers and other salads, potatoes nice but not many per plant again to dryness. Despite hot weather I agree the vast contrasts in weather remain so I 😂 at Gerrys comment right now :-)
On 01 Aug 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A chilly 53F at 7am this morning and the first fog in months. That is 10F lower than recent mornings. Up to 73F now in the City with plenty of sun. The MetO are positively wetting themselves that a new record temp will be set for Europe. I struggle to believe them regarding last year but of course they claim records only go back to 1910. This is only the digital record.
On 31 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, cloudy & still but then brightening up until mid afternoon, brisk S’ly wind and at 22˚ max feeling a bit warmer than yesterday, cloudy thereafter but staying dry, 15˚ at 9.30pm.
On 31 Jul 2018, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:
Generally a month of two halves here, baking hot and dry followed by humid and warm. Rain amount 55.2mm this month, most falling around mid month. Wind predominantly east at first then south to south west. Today is breezy max 22c with some sunny spells.
On 31 Jul 2018, C View wrote:
@ Russ Derbyshire. Totally agree not only are they going on about 2017 they are trying to tell us there is currently record heat in the Arctic. If that is the case then how has the Arctic got sea ice volume sitting at the fourth highest in the last 15 years.. These people know no shame.
On 31 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
I joked with my wife last year, about the possibility that the Met Orifice would say that 2017 was the warmest ever. Well the claim isn't that bad but it's still utterly ridiculous. The fifth warmest ever. >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45018533 << .... As I remember last year it was cold and damp and cloudy and windy and horrible. I think I counted just 2 nights when it was warm enough to sleep on the duvet instead of under it. We only had to open the bedroom windows overnight on about 10 occasions. We had the central heating on in June then it was back on again in early September. Then there was the autumn snow and ice. I can't remember many days when I didn't wear a thin fleece jacket. So where did they get the notion that it was the fifth warmest year? Not in NE Derbyshire it wasn't! One of the coldest summers I can ever remember...
On 31 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy.... yes our rain was steady too for about 7 hours so no floods here either.......Just got back from a 6 mile walk across high moorland. Lots of broken cloud to help keep the heat down but also a very chilly wind. Unusual colours to the landscape as the trees are an extremely lush, deep green due to loads of sun and hardly any wind over the past couple of months but the grass is all brown. It doesn't look at all like a UK landscape. Lovely scent from the purple heather. Saw a solitary Swift.
On 30 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30 overcast but brightening up soon to sunny day with a blustery S’ly wind, temps managed to get to 20˚ but by the end of the afternoon clouds moved in and by 7.30pm heavy and prolonged rain started, still going now at 9.30 as it is moving up the East Coast, the soil is beginning to get replenished.
On 30 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A rather soggy day at Godstoneberry yesterday but at least the festival field is sandy so no muddy boots. Rain didn't really stop until early evening. Less windy than Saturday but a bit chilly still. The Saturday goers said I missed a good day although into the evening it was chilly. So the great over-hyped dry spell has ended. Good news for me is that ponds are now full again and so are the water butts. The rain seems to have passed looking at the radar and it is bright with sunny spells and 72F as noon approaches. Will the heat return or will it be a more average summer? Leading climate crook Ben Santer is claiming hotter summers and colder winters are climate change in action. The paper has a host of names attached to give it 'prestige' but as we have seen with Brexit 'prestige' sources are usually clueless. His great paper is based on models so need say no more. Santer changed the IPCC report to claim a human cause that the evidence did not that then brought us the hockey stick.
On 29 Jul 2018, eastside wrote:
It's been very hot here in France.
2 days ago it was a good solid 37C, with some places up to 39c.
There was huge air pollution in Basel on friday eve, the air was grey-brown hanging over the city with an acrid sooty smoke filled odour.
This week is expected to be hotter still so maybe will just manage to touch 40C
The most at risk is still vallee de Saone-Rhone but last week this area extended as high up as Lille.
On 29 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, rather cooler than what we’ve become used to, quite windy from the S, sunny to start with but greying over after 9am, then continuous & copious rain all afternoon, wind abating and temps slowly rising to 15˚ at 9pm, by which time it had stopped raining. Having had several sets of rain since Thursday night the soil has been able to absorb it gradually, so we are less likely to get floods on bone dry ground.
On 29 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry.... "The Mail has an article of warmist drivel saying that heat-waves will be more common due to climate change"....... Have you seen the BBC article saying that thousands will die as heat-waves become more common? Well I'm sorry auntie beeb but millions will die of starvation and disease if another little ice age happens. >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44956310 << ......... We have missed almost all of the rain until today. Here come the floods...here come the floods...here come the floods!
On 28 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, damp, mild & grey with a S’ly wind and quite a bit of heavy rain throughout the morning, brightening up by 2pm and feeling warm at 20˚ but by about 5pm the wind strengthened and started to get much fresher so that by 9pm we had 12˚. Well, this is a bit more like the usual summers up here, except that the rains are really welcome!
On 28 Jul 2018, Digitalis (the Netherlands) wrote:
Some precious rain here too, it seems the last for a while yet. Hopefully the wettest autumn will follow as mentioned below.
On 28 Jul 2018, Bill S( N E Wales) wrote:
Precious little rain here. from this thundery break down. A couple of light showers today but nothing much. Wind is strong southerly to south westerly making it feeling fresher. South of me the Horseshoe pass area ( llantysilio) remains closed due to the continuing heather fires, exacerbated with today’s winds, hoping for some heavy rain.
On 28 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Really cloudy last night but patience paid off and for a moment we caught a view of the eclipse as the cloud thinned just enough to give us a glimpse, also saw the ISS and then all was cloudy again. Tiny one liked the big crack of thunder around midday ish followed by torrential downpour, some sun but clouds building again now, maybe more storm activity soon as app shows strikes around..
On 28 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Storms! Much needed rain! Another hot day but come late afternoon the cloud increased. On the bus from town to the first day of the Godstoneberry festival and we went through a heavy shower. But at the festival there had been nothing, but....just as the music was under way the rains came down. Apart from a short break for safety reasons, the band played on while we watched from the convenience of the beer tent. It moved away fairly quickly but some nice lightning as it passed over the Greensand Hills to the North Downs. It made for a fresher evening but sadly no sight of the moon. This morning early rain has cleared and more sunny spells are coming but there is a very fresh wind. Is that our lot for a while? Later I shall have a look and see how much my butts have captured to perhaps give me some water for the pond. The Mail has an article of warmist drivel saying that heatwaves will be more common due to climate change.
On 28 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Meanwhile more global warming.. >> https://www.iceagenow.info/cold-kills-20-percent-of-farm-animals-in-arequipa-peru-videos/#more-26328 <<
On 27 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
18˚C at 7.30 foggy & mild, thunderstorm around midnight with copious rainfall, cloudy morning, S’ly wind, sunny and hot early afternoon with 27˚, clouding over by 5pm and rumbles of thunder approaching from the SE, these got louder all the time and we ended up with a continuous show until after 10pm - so that’s the eclipse eclipsed for all of us right down the east coast of Britain, amazing to see it happening on Blitzortung, it’s been quite a number of years that we’ve had such continuous thunderstorms, still 18˚ at 10.30pm. == Russ, according to our friends there are people in Greece who set fire to things, particularly new housing, if they don’t like it. I wasn’t going to say that yesterday because it’s kind of second hand information, I haven’t followed this closely so I can’t be sure.
On 27 Jul 2018, Bill S( NE Wales) wrote:
The sunny start gave way to sunny spells more cloud this afternoon and evening but staying dry and humid. max 28.8c humid evening 21.3 c at 2100. North wales hill/moor fire at Llangollen ,substantial for the area, continued all day visible-trail ofsmoke and smell 15-17 miles away Bring on the rain!
On 27 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Well forecasted Piers. Finally had an amazingly heavy downpour early evening, fab to hear the rain, even better to stand in, has been so humid the last couple of days although the breeze yesterday for a time was nice it has on the whole been v. muggy. 16 deg now at 8.34pm hoping for a good thunderstorm later, lots of activity on Blitzortung. Yellow rain warning here & already some water laid in places earlier where the ground has been so dry. Grass perking up where grass remains for the right kind of showers... Agree Paddy unimaginable pain, even worse to think of as possibly premeditated, what a conscience to carry if is...
On 27 Jul 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Rhys,
The "Beast from the East" in March 2018 was eerily similar to the one in March 1958, thus underlying the important 60 year cycle that Piers has been telling us about.
It used to be easy to compare the UK weather patterns (1958, 1898, 1838 etc) before that excellent Booty site got shunted to the British Library. It is probably being revised and chopped up by some AGW civil servant by now.
Heard Piers on last week's Oppenheimer Ranch Project radio broadcast. He tried to disabuse the host regarding the significance of cosmic ray flux. This topic is very in vogue nowadays, but I think Piers is correct to see it as a side show and not a forcing factor.
Very surprised though that Piers appeared ignorant of the work of David Dilley on the gravitational modulation of Arctic currents and climatic consequences.
On 27 Jul 2018, Digitalis wrote:
Yesterday the Netherlands were the hottest spot in Europe, 37 d. here, and till late in the evening 35. When rain falls it is in isolated spots, causing deluges. Fortunately the firebrigades fill up the watering holes here in the forests for the animals. Farmers aren't allowed to use surface water to save their crops, in some parts they can't pump up groundwater. Ofcourse all our weatherpeople have their days in the sun and you know what they say the cause of this is...What I understand from LIA conditions we are right in the middle of them. Now 115 days without sunspots.
On 27 Jul 2018, BillS (NE Wales) wrote:
The heavy morning dew if the last few days has gone the morning has started dry and sunny , already up to 19c by 0715. A real belter of a day as they say up north. Made the most if this with a long walk with the dog a distant fire in Llangollen direction must be big , as I can see the smoke some 15 plus mikes away. Tomorrow looks more wet and cool , a temporary blip?
On 27 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
The police are looking at arson Paddy. Something like 15 fires all started within a very short space of time over a fairly large area. Doesn't look natural. Human pillocks to blame again. We have seen many small burnt areas along roadside verges, where cigarettes have been senselessly tossed out of a vehicle window. Over the years we have seen many large burned patches on the moors but every one has been next to a public path. If these fires were truly wild and natural, there would be far more surely? But they try to hide the human factor, otherwise they can't blame global warming. Suddenly seeing pockets of swifts and swallows. Easier to see a whole family than isolated adults. Still very sparse though and rare in our area.
On 26 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, sunny & clear, warm morning with temps climbing to 24˚ but the afternoon was grey with high fog which only cleared in the evening, mild with 17˚ at 10pm. == My wife spoke with friends today whose daughter lives in Greece; her husband was caught in the fires, had to stay in the sea for several hours, lost his phone of course and was unable to contact his wife until a kind person allowed him to use their phone later on. A neighbour of theirs tried to escape by motor bike with his children but they all perished. Most of us have no concept of what this is like…
On 26 Jul 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Ron
1976 heatwave in Nw London was followed by the wettest autumn I can remember but the winter was not cold.
Some correlation between hot summers in mid 1980s and cold winters.
Personally, my view is that if March 62 was like March 2018, then what odds a winter to rival 1962/3?
Pick your correlations to choose your prediction....
On 26 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
With all the alarmism over a bit of nice weather we should remember that liars lie and not be surprised. Paul Homewood does an excellent job of exposing them. What the likes of Harrabin don't mention is the livestock dying in the snow in South America for the third winter in a row. As for our winter to come, the respected Joe Bastardi has seen similarities to 1962 and the older ones among us recall where that went. Iceagenow has a good video link to show how many places are below the 'norm' which includes Greece but then fires come from it being dry first and foremost. At 2pm it is 89F in the City. I expected the worst last night as there was no breeze but with big fans running during the evening and with the windows open i fell asleep easily to the sound of a tawny owl. Will we get the thunderstorms everyone is now talking about. The question is though is it true or did you hear it on the BBC?
On 26 Jul 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Next they'll be telling us that the 'blood moon' is caused by global warming.
On 26 Jul 2018, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
BBC harping on about hottest summer ever and this is what we need to prepare for in the future. Less than 4 months ago it was snowing. Let's all install air con and freeze in winter.
On 26 Jul 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... What about cold weather?
In the UK, many more preventable deaths happen because of cold weather than hot weather, but the government has failed to deliver its targets for insulating homes.
If the UK's winters get warmer, as generally predicted, winter deaths will be reduced. But in a year like this one, the UK has suffered extremes of cold and heat.
Both heat-related and cold-related health burdens in future will be amplified by population ageing."===https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44956310===Back in June Climate Realists was commenting on the instances of blocking with low solar activity (sun mostly mentioning 1976. No of course it can't be the sun. In a prev BBC article they mentioned the position of the high in 76 VS now (less humidity now). They actually pointed to sea temperatures being similar cold Greenland warm seas over us and cold Nr. Africa. Amazing those CO2 molecules that can precisely dump high pressure systems & set sea patterns.
On 26 Jul 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
From the Harrabin BBC link Bill alluded to; "Which homes are at risk?
In a densely populated city, temperatures are higher.
Homes built in the 1960s and 1970s present a particular risk, as can flats with windows that are small, hard to open or face the same way.....Should we fear heat island?
Cities can be up to 10C hotter than the surrounding countryside because hard surfaces absorb heat during the day and give out heat at night. This is the heat island effect.
If people get too hot in bed, it prevents them recovering from the previous day's heat.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Many people struggle to sleep during the heat
Yet the government's planning framework makes no mention of the heat island effect.
What's more, ministers withdrew funding for local authority climate change adaptation officers, who were working on the issue.
The report calls for an urban green infrastructure target, and for towns and cities to be adapted to more frequent heatwaves..
On 26 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Forgot the link in my last post. It was about rising CO2 in the oceans causing acidity thereby preventing the fishes from sniffing out their food. I'll try to find it again, but BBC links often disappear never to be seen again. Wayback here I come? I'd like to know the process whereby CO2 is both released and absobed by the oceans at the same time. ..... This is an eye opener from Mr Felix' site. >> https://youtu.be/ayKuOLU4C5Y <<.. Very interesting reading the comments section.
On 26 Jul 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
I see that BBC’s So called guru roger Harrabin in today’s news, saying that scientists disagree about the current rash of heatwaves being down to climate change. The next sentence states that they all agree future heatwaves will be hotter and more frequent due to carbon emissions. He is clearly not a scientist
. Cool start11.9c clear skies, heavy dew when out walking the dog this morning
On 25 Jul 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// oh my what is going on Piers tomorrow weather France some parts topping above 35 d on their meteo tonight - I dropped in to French tv to see how they were fairing from me island off st malo anyway U.K. also a worry. Very very sad about Greece terrible tragedy - no sign of thunderstorms and weirdly cool at night here in Guernsey normally you would get uncomfortable heat it’s all a mystery and no rain its looking like 1976 by the day
On 25 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but soon brightening up to another very sunny day with a max temp of 25˚, mitigated somewhat by a strong S’ly breeze that started up in the afternoon, 15˚ at 9.30pm. == Bug Baby, haha :-)
On 25 Jul 2018, Kim Baker wrote:
The massive amounts of vitamin D I'm receiving as I tend my veg plot have got rid of my menopausal hot flashes, now I'm hot because it is hot!😂The mornings here in NW France are delightful warm and sunny but by noon it's indoors with the shutters closed,sleeping with a wet towle on top of me instead of a duvet,please remember the birds and wildlife folks if you can put any dishes of water out for all the critters even the baby wasps need help thanks
On 25 Jul 2018, JamieM wrote:
Occasional subscriber, North Yorkshire, mixed results with the 4 or 5 previous forecasts over the last 5 years, but am very impressed with the accuracy of the July forecast! Well done Piers, keep up the good work. Hoping for cooler weather soon, quite pleasant today though, not looking forward to work trip to London on Friday, might need my USB fan for the Underground!
On 25 Jul 2018, Phil wrote:
Is The Canary aware of Weather Action?
https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/07/24/as-the-planet-burns-the-bbc-is-ignoring-the-scorching-hot-elephant-in-the-room/
On 25 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Heart goes out to Greece tragedy.
On 25 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
I think there were a few spots of rain early this morn. (Forgot to mention some light spots yesterday afternoon as the kids and I tiny one inc. went to stand in it for a minute) ah wish it would thunder and rain to clear the air. Some lovely warm sunny spells today although still good amount of cloud about. Max 22 deg. High humidity continues, muggy tonight but windows pulled to a bit incase she moves onto Daddy longlegs next ( gees shouldn't joke 😅) Hoping its clear for Fridays lunar eclipse/blood moon, looking forward to watching that with the kids and weather girl aka bug baby :) if conditions allow.
On 24 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, sunny, puddles left over from last night’s rain, a good sign as to the amount, cooler feel in the mostly W’ly breeze, still got to 22˚ though and a glorious end to the day under a clear sky, 13˚ at 10.30pm. == Maria, appreciate your reports on the little weather girl :-)
On 24 Jul 2018, Russ NE Drizzleshire wrote:
This is the most ludicrous pile of pure unscientific nonsense I have ever read. The BBC now quotes pure lies as facts, then at the end of each article filled with inaccurate twaddle, they suggest why you should trust the BBC. British Brain dead Consortium|
On 24 Jul 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR GREAT COMMS AND REPORTS. What a July this is - well confirming our forecasts! NOW'S THE TIME TO GET WEATHERWISE if you havn't already and Subscribe to great deals in support of WeatherAction £5000 URGENT APPEAL to back new Research and campaigning on science and environment. Any subscription (or donation) however small or large is welcome. Please just go to homepage and do it - and pass this message on to others who might. Thank you. PC
On 24 Jul 2018, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:
Second day running a rainy start as another fragmenting front tries to make in roads. A bit more punch than yesterday though with rain giving puddles. 0700 back with a damp dog and it looks like the skies clearing hopefully ,to give a nice day Overnight low 17.4 c yesterday’s high was 27.4c I remember when 27 was seen as a hot day every now and then , but now it seems all rather the norm.
On 24 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ps The Moomins were my era they were freaky!-) Danger Mouse was good tho :)
On 24 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The weekend was pretty hot but in a muggy uncomfortable humid way, started with light showers, some sun although more cloudy than sunny, similar again today (Mon.) though not as hot 23ish instead of 27 deg muggy of a night 17 down to 15 tonight, could do with a good downpour & thunderstorm. One less insect here as the tiny one hunted herself breakfast in her cot at 6 a.m this morn. didn't realise until she woke me up & projectiled a harvest spiders leg at me :-/ a few more unpleasant showers down my shoulder a sleep while I cleaned up and bless her she was fine. Have only been spoon feeding 2 weeks & I think she way prefers sweet potato or avocado puree lunch to todays menu.. she had energy like popeye with his spinach this aft. though :-)
On 23 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
18˚C at 7.30, cloudy, mild and gearing up to be another hot one when the sun came out at 8.30 - 31˚ in fact, highest max temp this year and for a great number of years. Fortunately there was a nice S’ly breeze and the afternoon turned rather cloudy and then we were fortunate to get a good 2 hour soaking after 8pm that will again help the grass to grow, still 17˚ at 9.30pm.
On 23 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry..... When politicians speak, all I hear are the Clangers! ... With the speaker of the house Mr Bercow doing a fantastic impersonation of The Soup Dragon.
On 23 Jul 2018, C View wrote:
MSM at it again. Report on BBC website today describes hot weather in south and south east England as a UK heatwave rather than a regional one, with liberal use of amber warning words to ramp it up to make it sound apocalyptic . It then manages to mention that 1976 was hotter and 1969 was drier but despite that all being more than 50 years ago things are worse now and getting worse still in the future. As Piers would say it is a classic word salad nothing more. Clyde coast today has seen steady rain and temps of 17 c , scary stuff !!!!!!
On 23 Jul 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Well these are the extreme that we on here expected. This pattern in essence started in March and has not changed that much in reality. What brought the brutal cold has now resulted in droughts. Just variations on a high pressure theme. Ron is correct if that pattern holds them early winter could be harsh. This is true MIA conditions. However I suspect we will see a pattern shift in Autumn to a very prolonged wet period.
On 23 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
1pm and 85F with a bit of breeze around. Some cloud to give some shady spells. The legacy media are already looking forward to some fake news headlines regarding temperature as I have already seen mention of breaking a record set at Heathrow airport. Sigh, no end to their lies in sight. Snow in Italy on the Dolomites 2 days ago. Not unknown but contrary to the claims that we would not see snow again. Not likely to feature on the BBC. Neither would the cold and snow in Peru for the third winter in a row. I heard it said that the Clangers actually espoused Marxist ideology in their whistles due to their creator's views. If our current politicians spoke like the Clangers we would not be missing anything.
On 23 Jul 2018, Lorrane wrote:
Lorraine// clear blue skies with a westerly wind blowing says 23deg a n thermo but sure the sun has more heat n it. I am still doing the sand test, summers with unbroken sunshine in the summers of early 70s and 60s were normally disrupted by thunderstorms, that is not happening. Yes the sand on the beach was hot but not too hot not to walk on like those long hot summers of old
On 22 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
18˚C at 7.30, sunny & very warm already and working up to Phew-what-a-scorcher: 30˚ by midday, fortunately there was quite a bit of fair-weather cumulus about so we got some shade, augmented by a light NNW’ly breeze, still 21˚ at 9pm. == Bill S, we also have trees with drooping leaves, they’re just going into autumn a bit early and will likely survive, though the 300 or so we planted in April are having a hard time and won’t all survive, such is life…
On 22 Jul 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
It's been generally cloudy for best part of a week. Some rain again Thursday and especially Friday afternoon.months total now 44mmThe grass has greened up again except for some patches,sadly the rain was too late for a few of thelocal trees in the fields, which now have shed all leaves. Some very fine" Mist " early on today sun coming out this afternoon lifting Temperature to just above 25 c the highest for over a week.
On 22 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Ronnie.... The Clangers were fake too. Puppets apparently. Another childhood dream shattered!..... Maria ...enveeeee! Been out walking the moors today and not a single hirundine in sight. Lovely and cloudy with a chilly breeze. Lots of larger streams and other water drainage rivulets are still flowing healthily, so the moors are still draining. Lakes as opposed to reservoirs are still full to the brim....even small ones.
On 21 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, foggy and mild, which turned out to be the theme of the day, actually quite restful after weeks of sunshine, still to begin with, then SE’ly sea breeze, max temp 21˚, still 15˚ at 10pm. == We had some Swedish guests who said that back home it was so dry that farmers didn’t have enough grass to feed the cattle and had to slaughter many, then the slaughterhouses got chock-a-block and the price of meat plummeted. Also just read that in Switzerland vegetable growers are having to discard tons of veg because growth has been so abundant due to high temps and much precipitation in thunderstorms that there also prices have fallen.
On 21 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Maria, did you do any shadow puppets? No swallows but swifts noisily circling the church steeple. Plagued by those tiny black flies under the trees at Lydden circuit that annoy you as they move on your skin. Better out from under the trees in the sun with a light breeze to keep it from being too hot. Blackberries just about ripe in some areas but raspberries have suffered in the absence of rain. We should all know by now that a couple of days of hot weather is a 'heat wave' and climate change. Cold weather is just a 'cold snap' and weather even if it goes on for weeks.
On 21 Jul 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Social mediain meltdown over prospects if temperatures reaching ~30c all week then possibly 33-35c on Friday in SE England. Rumours of heat reload first weekend of August. I’m struggling in this, I really am.
On 21 Jul 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Warmists having a ball with the high temps in the NH. Let's see what they say if the same pattern holds in the winter eg after the roaster of 1995 Glasgow had it's coldest Xmas period on record.
On 20 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Weird everywhere I have driven this week I have seen Swallows, like an explosion of them all over the place. Woke to the lovely sound of rain around 7.45 a.m stayed humid but showers passed on and the late morning was pleasant, stayed dry for rest of the day and a build up of stormy looking clouds with some sun to finish. Max 21 / 22 deg. Tiny one loved it as I had the velox open slightly and blind open a little bit which was just enough for the sunset to project onto our back bedroom wall for what seemed like 5 or so mins helped mesmerise her to sleep :) 19 deg. & muggy though a slight breeze @ 10.39pm
On 20 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚ at 7.30, overcast & starting to rain gently, at last!, around 9am and going on into early afternoon, better than short sharp downpours, so tonight everything is humid, mild and smelling heavenly. In spite of constant cloud cover we had 21˚ today and still feeling very mild with 16˚ at 10pm. Tomorrow looks to be cloudy, so we won’t have too much evaporation and the humidity can sink into the ground a little and help the grass to grow a little.
On 20 Jul 2018, Ronnie wrote:
Fair point, Gerry; and, apparently, The Clangers never even went to the moon; it was all faked at a secret studio inside Area 51 (at Wood Lane) !!
On 20 Jul 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Well the average daytime temperatures are provisionally 27c by day and 16c by night in my little corner of SW Essex which is slightly higher than 2006 by day and marginally cooler by night (Day 26.8c/Night 16.2c). Some scattered showers finally for SE England later today and possibly tomorrow. Then all eyes on a sweatfest next Friday (27th) with temperature possibly reaching 35c somewhere in E Anglia/SE England. But do we get the traditional thundery breakdown or does the head reload? Either way, Piers absolutely nailed the end of July! What next for August???
On 19 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
If they did it would be the first time Trumpton Fire Brigade put out a fire. They never did for the simple reason they couldn't do it with the puppets as they would probably catch fire.
On 19 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Well we had that bit of rain mentioned on last post and a little bit more the next morning which was enough to damp down the dust but still not really enough to replenish. Still haven't cut the grass as it is hanging in there and looking ok considering lack of rain, dew probably helping too, i'm seeing a lot of low cut lawns suffering around, glad I cut ours high and with the mulcher in as a little permaculture helps prior to hot weather. Seemed to hot up today after a few cooler cloudier days and quite clear and cool last night, 17 deg. now at 10.53pm
On 19 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30 cloudy & still, but by 8.30 the sun was out and we had another warm day with a cooling SE’ly breeze, max temp 27˚, enjoying it while it lasts, 14˚ by 10pm.
On 19 Jul 2018, Ronnie wrote:
Interesting point about a wind drought, Gerry; but, either way, all this heat could lead to an increased risk of moorland fires in Trumptonshire for Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble & Grub to deal with
On 19 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Will we have the August forecast soon as hoping there might be a bit of rain to come?
On 19 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Russ - meanwhile seabirds are staring on Greenland because of all the snow still there. The researcher was 'shocked' by his encounter with reality as opposed to lies that the Arctic is super warm and all the ice has melted. The UK is suffering from a 'wind drought' apparently. Not something to bother most of us if you don't go sailing, fly kites, windsurf, hang glide or are called Windy Miller (one for older readers). Also hitting SSE profits as their income from taxpayer boosted wind energy is down and they have to use gas. Jo Nova has a post about a Japanese paper looking into correlation between solar activity and lightning activity which also mentions that the solar wind might play a part in our weather.... Now who'd have thought that? Despite the 'wind drought' it has often been breezy which has offset the heat and helped cool the house in the evening. More cloud around yesterday but otherwise more warm weather.
On 19 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
You can't win with these greenie muppets. Not too long ago we were being told that thousands of adult penguins and their chicks had starved because it snowed too much and the sea ice had extended, to such a degree, that the adults trying to reach the sea to feed literally couldn't reach it in time and froze to death en route. Or was it that they took so long getting back the others starved.? Any road up, now it's warming that's going to kill them...how appropriate. It's too hot - it's too cold, never satisfied us humies! >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43204108 << .......... Been lovely and chilly and cloudy this past few days.
On 18 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, cloudy & still, some sunshine from time to time when it occasionally got quite hot, max temp 22˚, but often the cloud cover made the SE’ly sea breeze feel quite cold once it got going. Little bit of sun in the evening 14˚ by 9pm.
On 18 Jul 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Interesting data at www.slf.ch the Swiss Avalanche Research Advjsory service.
On the Weissfluehjoch, the 2540m summit above Davos (where SLF is based), they recorded the highest snow depths ever in late January 2018, but the summer melt was complete by mid-June, as compared to early August in an average year.
They stated that this was the earliest snow-free date recorded in any year where a record high snow depth at any time in the season had been documented.
This shows clearly that winter snows are but one factor in determining snow turning into permanent snow fields, with summer melt being far more important.
In Scotland, it is expected that no snow patches will survive until next winter, despite it being an excellent ski season lasting until early May.
On 17 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, overcast with light rain off & on during the morning, looking at the radar sequence I could see that we had a fair amount of rain during the night, slight breeze from a mostly SE’ly direction, some bright spells during which temps managed to climb to 23˚, heavy shower around 7pm and then a cloudy end to the day, 14˚ at 10pm. == Re Attenvane, read http://www.green-agenda.com/ (not a Greenie site btw), shows very well how the Green movement has been hijacked by those who want others to die first, Club of Rome statement, 1st sentence: “The common enemy of humanity is man”. Bingo!
On 17 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
There was a nice breeze yesterday to tame some of the heat on another warm and dry day in the SE. A bit more cloud around today with a bit of breeze. Attenborough must be one of the very few who have taken the path from light to dark. There was a period when I believed in global warming but then when the taxes started coming in I started to wonder. The first book I read was Meltdown and suddenly what had appeared certain was anything but. Back before it was invented I am sure it was Attenborough presenting a programme on the Baltic where at the northern end the sea is retreating. Rather contrary to the we will all drown message but it was explained that the sea was not actually moving - the land was. Now that sort of inconvenient fact is omitted when sinking land appear to cause sea level rise.
On 17 Jul 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Another good soaking yesterday that’s 38mm since last Thursday. Even the grass is starting to green up again. Today’s bbc headlines talk about “shipping”welsh water to England and introducing a hose pipe ban in the north west , a bit premature?
A lot of electricity production this week is through gas and coal due to low wind generation and increased cloud , but you won’t see that on bbc though
On 17 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Yes Mark, Attenborrow told us global warming was bullsheet, then it was, " no wait a minute, my brilliant scientific mind got side-tracked for a moment there, it's actually all true....we're all doomed!" Hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to 'saving the planet'.
On 16 Jul 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Like when he dug up all those turtle eggs to fry for breakfast or kidnapped all those" Zoo Quest " mammal babies for his own and the BBC viewers' entertainment back in the day.
Total fraud.
He correctly disparaged AGW when it first reared its ugly head, but saw which way the wind was blowing. Now a full on convert to this fraudulent religion.
Not a scientist, not an educator. Just another cynical, self-interested operator.
On 16 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, overcast and still, something resembling rain happened between 9.30 and 11, just enough to settle the dust. S’ly breeze getting up which made it pleasant in the max temp of 27˚ we got in the afternoon and makes 18˚ feel cool now at 9pm. == David Yorkshire: I don’t disagree with you on A’s merits, nobody can be 100% wrong, he has undoubtedly opened people’s eyes for the natural world, a good thing. But if you look at the depopulation agenda you might take a slightly different view of Mr A.
On 16 Jul 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Bit strong to slate Attenborough like that, he has done alot of good for our planet just in educating the masses on the natural world.
On 16 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
"Dump the disgraceful Attenbrough and bring back David Bellamy." ...... I'll second that!
On 15 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
20˚C at 7.30, highest morning temperature this year, doesn’t happen very often, followed by highest max temp of 32˚ - not sure whether I can fully trust my ancient thermometer but it was damn hot and very enjoyable. Not all fun for farmers though as cereal crops haven’t filled out and our neighbour is running out of fresh grass for his cattle. Still 19˚ at 9.30pm. == Attenborough/Malthusians/Eugenicists: their pseudo-cogent arguments always involve other people dying out, not them, they don’t seem to be very keen on topping themselves or their extended families, i.e. leading by example :-)
On 15 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Russ - you missed an important word about their predictions - wrong. We are all still waiting for their first correct prediction. Another hot day but blessed with a bit of breeze across the marsh at Lydd. Lots of hot mini-bike action on the circuit. No need for a warm up lap. Back home and the patio thermometer is reading 86F at 7pm. I hope we will have a cool evening so at least my fans can blow out the heat and draw in the cool. Dump the disgraceful Attenbrough and bring back David Bellamy.
On 15 Jul 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Russ,
Attenborough would have no problem explaining away the massive increase in Greenland's ice budget. Along the lines of AGW causing localised cooling etc. In other words it would be out of the Holdren playbook.
And I have no doubt that when he dies, no one will be allowed to point out that he was a Malthusian fanatic who eagerly anticipated the demise of billions of the Earth's human inhabitants. That he advocated that future famine relief efforts should not take place especially in the undeveloped world.
That sort of stuff will not be allowed just like with that other phony a couple of months ago.
On 15 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Woke up at 7.30 a.m cloudy and still, by 9 a.m a little drizzle and now some proper showers at 10.30 a.m onwards and yeah it smells and feels bootiful 😂 87% humidity and 17 deg at 11.10 a.m first rain since 18th June here, a day short of 4 weeks, it has been like a months holiday lots of fun in the sun well enjoyed but
#welcomebackrainwemissedyou...atinybit 💧
On 15 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Near the end of that Greenland snow article I note the mention of global warming causing more moisture over the Arctic, therefore more snow. That only works if the place it is snowing - the Arctic - is very cold. But in the warming world they keep promising, the Arctic will be "ice free" for most of the year and warmer. Any extra snow will only fall in winter but won't collect because global warming will heat the ocean surface and prevent the sea ice forming. Their predictions are empty, circular, contradictory and misleading....so what's new?
On 15 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Maybe David Attenburg(sic) is going to be on holiday in Greenland this year? >> https://bit.ly/2zPtP1F <<
On 15 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy. They could be a family from a nearby farm, say within 10 miles which, considering the changing weather patterns over Scotland lately, could have been following the food. Air currents close to the ground could have been pushing their favourite insects toward you. In similar weather conditions you could see them return. I see a similar pattern locally where a grassy moorland hillside overlooking a large birch wood is their favoured spot, but in strong winds or mist or cold, they move down to the dairy farms in the valley around 400ft lower elevation.
On 14 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Rain!!!! Over in Edenbridge yesterday I could see dark clouds and rain from them and heard rumbles of thunder. Driving home nothing happened until just after I arrived when it started to rain slowly but became heavier. Had to go for a walk and it was steady and there was the lovely rain smell. slowed and stopped. Town centre looked like it had received a heavier burst. Later drove off to the farm shop and soon it was bone dry and in Godstone they had seen nothing at all. Another warm day touching 80F with some clouds to ease the heat at this year's Lingfest. Cooled off nicely in the evening again.
On 14 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last couple of days mostly cloudy with sunny spells, mild although temp feels cool after recently but still 22/24 deg by day and around 14 overnight. Still no rain as yet, chance of showers soon maybe.. A good bit more sunshine today and 24/25 deg for a time though cloud returned and with it the humidity has climbed a little.
On 14 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, bright sunshine, clouding over somewhat during the morning in a strengthening S’ly breeze but in all it was a very sunny day with a max temp of 27˚, great for the family & friends barbecue we had, staying warm for a long time into the evening, still 18˚ at 10.30pm. == Russ, I was sitting outside tonight enjoying the mild evening and lo and behold, there was a flight of about 8 swallows swooping & spinning above the farm, even a solitary swift turned up. After an hour or so they all left, leaving our two loners to themselves; I’m rather hoping they’ll come back and mate with ours for the second brood, bit maybe that sort of thing doesn’t happen.
On 14 Jul 2018, Geof wrote:
Can't understand why David Attenborough has just launched a brand new ice-breaker, when they've long told us that all the ice would be gone by 2018! Luckily it comes with a little submarine, which can film the immense volcanic and geothermal activity recently discovered beneath the Western Antarctic shelf which, even NASA have reluctantly agreed, was largely responsible for 30 years of 'melting'...As usual, no mention of THIS on the B.B.C (Biased Broadcasting Corp).
On 14 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Also, thinking back over the years, even when there was hardly any rain for several months, the Ladybower trio didn't look seriously empty until mid to late August. All the mining and heavy industry which used vast amounts of water have almost all closed down. This also follows an unusually cold and wet spring, where the ground was still sodden and cold (low evaporation) until mid May. But as usual, as soon as the threat of hose-pipe bans is heard echoing through the halls of meteorological giants, the rains come and cause floods and chaos. It's only a matter of time! (spoken with a soft Edinburgh accent like Alan Young in The Time Machine 1960).
On 14 Jul 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Yesterday was wet with rain early morning (4-6 am)and for a few hours mid afternoon 27mm in total, our wettest day this year! Still warm though 23.4c before the afternoon rain. Beautiful start to the day, plentysun with light winds, more cloud though today and feeling more humid. Temp up to 25.6 c by 2pm.
On 14 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Maria. It's been an excellent year for butterflies and we have met many people with binoculars who, when questioned, are not bird watchers but butterfly watchers. We have noted huge amounts of all insects especially dragonflies..... Paddy, If some Swallows made it that far north but the overall numbers are similar to the rest of the UK, then the reason for the severe drop in numbers must be all encompassing across the entire migratory route, and not localised as I first thought earlier in the year......David. Did they mention the diabolically cold and wet 17 month period leading up to this heatwave?...... Not sure why the Ladybower trio of dams is almost empty. Last time I visited was late May and they were all full to the brim with all tributary's flowing healthily. How they could possibly empty in 6 weeks is beyond my comprehension. The dryness and lack of rain was slowing grass growth around the middle of June so only 4 weeks ago.
On 13 Jul 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week
On 13 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C overnight, 14˚ at 7.30, dull start but brightening up by 9am, S’ly breeze, max temp a respectable 25˚, lovely mild evening, 16˚ at 10pm.
On 12 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, overcast and grey all day with a cool N’ly breeze, end of story. Max temp 19˚ which was the upside, down to 13˚ again by 10pm. == Re swallows, as I’ve mentioned before we just have 2 and they’re not a pair of opposite sex, so no youngsters. Also hardly saw any swifts this year, they usually pass over the farm in the evenings.
On 12 Jul 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
The long dry spell here of over a month has ended. Some early drizzle and evening light rain only amounting to 0.4 mm . Still warm though reaching 25c today.
On 12 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Russ re: Swallows, their numbers are def. down here too as usually when going into town I would see a good amount flying down the high street and swooping back up above the houses, only seeing the odd couple. Noticed about 2 pairs and a few I presume young above around our garden and maybe another 2 next door. Not sighted many on walks either and bird numbers def. declined in our garden this summer as usually so noisy in the mornings and always a big number in our back garden. An increase in Butterflys this year..
On 12 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Somerset and NW Devon have Swallows but I only saw two lots of around 7 ... so two families the whole day. A few Swifts over Barnstaple. Eyes peeled throughout a 3.5hr train journey from Derbyshire to Devon and saw nothing until the first sighting near Taunton, about 3hrs into the journey. So my fears are confirmed. This really is a summer without Swallows, with just the odd family here and there in the south, and what seems to be just unmated pairs of - probably males - farther north. I've not seen a single House or Sand Martin either....not yet......... Could it be that the cold snaps very late in the spring, wiped out the insects just as the birds were migrating, and they literally starved en route? I'm searching for answers...
On 11 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
16˚C at 7.30, overcast and still start, slight breeze later mostly from an E’ly direction, grey all day but still a max temp of 22˚, drizzle from 8pm onwards, just enough to dampen the dust, 14˚ at 10pm. == Russ, when there is not enough moisture cereal grains don’t fill out, meaning a poor harvest.
On 11 Jul 2018, Kim Baker wrote:
Greetings from Pas d' Calais I found a dessicated baby bat in my courtyard this morning ,but there is no shortage of Swallows ,Swifts and Sparrows (I do put out lots of water for them though)
Bone dry here
On 11 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A lot cooler the last two days. Chilly standing out watching the flypast under cloudy skies yesterday. Sunnier today but chilly at the station. One field nearby had a combine in last Thursday. Noticed a blackbird taking blackberries already and have seen the first one that is almost black.
On 11 Jul 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
"You get loads of people citing all sorts of rubbish on here" .... True .... and trolls! Dictionary definition - 'Someone who provokes or abuses others, esp. on the Internet'........ Drove almost 400 miles all over the Yorkshire moors yesterday and saw 3 Swallows. Only 5 local Swallows a few days ago and 2 Swifts. Not seen a summer like this in 49 years of birdwatching......Lots of late sown crops ripening very quickly but through the drought so may fail. Farmers seem reluctant to harvest, so not sure what's going on. Maybe the outward appearance of ripeness hides the true state of the grain's progress?
On 10 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Temp dropped off after midnight last night back to around 10 / 11 deg. by 3.am Lovely and cold out this morning in comparison to recently and dew point down to 9 deg where it has been 13 the last few days, and 12 deg start, nice for a bare feet early morning walk. Lovely clear sky and sunshine from the get go and temp a lovely hot 27 deg this afternoon. 17 deg at 10.52pm and partly cloudy.
On 10 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, overcast was the theme of the day with a mostly light SE’ly wind, got to 22˚ in spite of the absence of the sun, calm tonight with 15˚ at 9.30pm. According to MO the outlook for the next few days is the same.
On 09 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Similar to yesterday with a fair bit of cloud to start although warm from the off, except cloud shifted quicker today and long stretches of sunshine, around max 26/27 deg with a light breeze, nice evening and continuing to make the most of the heat. Considering we have not had a Heatwave most green grass has turned a funny shade of crispy brown everywhere and grass hardly growing thats normal summer weather though eh! even though we have lived in the 'Emerald Isles' 16 years and have never had it this hot for this long. Don't mind me though i'm probably talking bollox and imagining it like really we have had weeks of 16 / (18 -20 deg. if we are lucky) & rain like our usual summers and any minute now i'm going to wake up with my face in a bowl of mash potato and well you know the rest!-)
On 09 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, overcast & feeling positively cold, well, until I started working, that is, but it was quite a contrast to yesterday, especially with a cool NW’ly wind. Afternoon was much brighter and it got up to 26˚, even more in sheltered parts. 13˚ by 10pm and overcast again. No rain in the offing for quite a while by the looks of it, somebody told me today that further inland cereal crops are looking really poor in parts.
On 09 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A lot more cloud around today with some breeze as well. Just after 6pm and it is 78F on the patio. At least it chilled down overnight and the fans made it low 60s for bedtime. Having to sleep with the windows open and a fan going can produce some interesting results. A bat flying around your bedroom does make sleep difficult and provides the challenge of how to get it out. Opening a large window and aiming a fan through it eventually did the trick. It must have missed the roost entrance and come inside instead. Yesterday afternoon after a hit day at Brands Hatch, the patio thermometer was reading just over 90F and that was about an hour later than today. Full praise to the Kent Show, Capel Military Vehicle show and Brands Hatch for having water taps available. We have a village festival next Saturday and I have asked what provision they have to supply water. Having to buy water is not acceptable.
On 09 Jul 2018, Mark Hall wrote:
Prolonged summer droughts were common in the UK between 1885 to 1909, so we might be entering a repeating cycle. That period was the build-up to the Yoshimura climate trough around the end of the First World War.
You see a lot of derelict wells on the farmland of the Home Counties that date from this period. Maybe they will be brought back into service before too long.
On 08 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, cloudy but mild, quite a bit of sunshine in the morning with temps rising to 27˚, then clouding over for the rest of the day with temps cooling down to 13˚ at 10pm. After 7pm a strange thing happened: something resembling water fell from the sky, I looked it up on the net, apparently it’s called rain - anybody know anything about that?
On 08 Jul 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Eastside
It does matter a jot what normal weather is in the Baltic, the fact is we are in the midst of a period of hot dry weather we only experience every few decades in the UK.
Here in NW London we have barely had any rain since the beginning of May, temperatures are way above average for this country, as are sunshine hours. Only 1976 in my lifetime can compare.
British people comment on British weather.
Most of us have been to places where 35C is common, be that Greece, Southern Spain.
We know our climate is usually more temperate than the Mediterranean.
I for one have experienced -30C in an Alpine winter, colder than anything ever recorded in this country. I know full well that continental winters put UK ones to shame.
But because we live in Britain, our comments are mostly about Britain.
Is that a crime?
On 08 Jul 2018, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Loving the heat. It will be madness if and when the flood arrives?
On 07 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Another great day enjoying the good weather
"heatwave heat wave 👋 wave of heat or just plain old Hot Air" whatever! makes no feckin difference to my world what you call it 😜
On 07 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, warm in spite of the cool NW’ly breeze - which during the day gradually turned into the SE - , mostly cloudy morning but very bright afternoon, max temp 25˚, cooler evening in the sea breeze, 16˚ at 9.30pm. == eastside, 29˚ is exceptional for us (highest I’ve ever measured on our thermometer was 31˚ a number of years ago) - and we’re enjoying it! Especially after 11 wet & mostly cool summers, last real & lasting heat we had was 2006.
On 07 Jul 2018, eastside wrote:
You get loads of people citing all sorts of rubbish on here.
29C is by no means a heat wave, it's a normal summer day in much of Europe.
(only in the overhyped, overblown UK, can 2 flakes of snow count as a freezing blast, - idem normal summer weather - "heatwave")
It's really time for this sort of bollox to stop!
When it becomes uncomfortable to drive without aircon, tough to work outdoors, and generally involves some sort of siesta or break in the afternoon, accompanied by obligatory cooling in fountains or swimming pools - THAT IS HOT. Ie. typical Moscow in 2010, or France in 2017. (37-38C)
When the children can't go to school in winter, in our part of the world it's when it dips below -30C.
All the other "Nanny state" rubbish which Canadians and Russians routinely laugh at is irrelevant, talking of which...
A PROPER heat wave was taking place in Quebec now, not some wimpy UK warm air stuff.
..54 dead etc...35-36C, much as we had in the northern Rhone valley earlier th
On 07 Jul 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
What is a heatwave?
“A heatwave refers to a prolonged period of hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. The World Meteorological Organization guidance around the definition of a heatwave is “A marked unusual hot weather (Max, Min and daily average) over a region persisting at least two consecutive days during the hot period of the year based on local climatological conditions, with thermal conditions recorded above given thresholds.” [Met Office]. Jul av max temp in Lyon 27°C. Current av max this Jul is 28°C that's +7°C over the av. CET until 5th July is 19.7°C, +4.2°C above av. What's been a relief during this spell is dew points rarely exceeding 11°C & low humidity offering relief at night & in shade, mins of 15-17°C but they have been few & far between. Nights are only ~3°C over av. It would be nice if we had shutters on windows to keep the heat out, but we don't it's an exception not the rule unlike Lyon. Could do with some rain. Any rain.
On 07 Jul 2018, eastside wrote:
Heatwave 29C??
That's no heatwave, that's just warm summer weather!
Here in France, there has already been a real heatwave at the beginning of this week. (37C in Lyon/Rhone area).
Back in Russia, it's been properly warm as has shown on some of the world cup matches. (30C DAILY).
In Baltic area/Finland it was the warmest MAY for about 30yrs, so it shows how the blocking highs are moving around rather unpredictably after the stormiest MAY for years in France.
I'm not complaining about a nice warm summer, it's good for plants, especially after the well watered month of May.
That made for the best cherries I have ever tasted!
On 06 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yesterday cloudy to start but sun breaking through and hotting up by late aft. mix of sun and clouds Max temp 27 deg. A good day to venture out for a hair cut after lots of eve. Gardening and do some food shopping with the kids as slightly less intense heat and good day to have off and get 6home by lunchtime :) Not surprisingly everywhere is so dry with crispy grass to walk on and the smell of wild fires in the distance. Another cloudier day today with hot sunny breaks, made for some great cloud watching on a blanket, can't remember the last time I did that, 26 deg dropping to 19 tonight at 11.44pm
On 06 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
'The children just won't know what snow is.' Well in southern Africa they don't as they have never seen it before but for the first time ever snow has fallen as part of widespread snowfall in S Africa, Zambia and Botswana. At the Kent show the livestock were suffering from the heat. Fans were being used to cool them at cost to the organisers thanks to the global warming scam merchants. Some cloud during the afternoon and an occasional bit of breeze but hot it was. Seems Tonbridge caught a local storm bringing flooding according to a commentator.
On 06 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, overcast start to the day but sun coming out by 9.30am and getting pretty hot, bar the usual E’ly sea breeze which kept temps deceptively cool so you don’t notice when you get sunburnt, max temp 25˚ and staying bright into the evening, 16˚ at 9pm. Everything is really dry, our farming neighbours would like some rain but, on the other hand, they’ve been able to make hay like not for many years.
On 06 Jul 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
AGWers making lots of noises abut mid-NH heatwave--no mention of the cold Arctic. PADDY--went to Cairngorm yesterday--similar experience.
On 05 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Travelling up to Beauly yesterday with the car windows open all the way it was so hot - 29˚C according to the car thermometer, we even went swimming in the river there. As we travelled back to Nairn late afternoon, cloud started building from the west but it was still very warm, over 20˚ on the beach in the evening. Travelling back home today, it was sunny with some cloud, this getting thicker as we approached Aberdeen and temps went down as we got back on our hill, stiff S’ly breeze there. When you’re used to high temps, 20˚ seems rather cold! 12˚ at 10pm, more like the usual.
On 05 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Heatwaves are no different to cold spells - they happen infrequently so it is hard to justify having infrastructure for either. Houses in Spain for example are built with heat in mind so that when they get a cold spell they are not suited to it. If we constantly had hot weather it would be worth fitting air conditioning. At least modern office buildings are cooled given that we spend so much time in them. And more trains now have aircon to make you get less steamed up by the frequent delays. The easterly breeze has gone and for the first time in what seems ages, planes are coming in to Gatwick from my direction.
On 04 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
But equally I do realise the serious side of the heatwave as have read all the blurb in the papers and that shower or any could have been real handy.. but then again they cope in Spain and other hot countries manage ...
On 04 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Hot hot and more hot again :-) 29 deg. here today still 23 at 8.35pm I watched with anticipation as some huge cumulus clouds towering above came and perched right over us and I really thought some immense storm was going to kick off as it all darkened and could do with a wee shower, but nope it has just stayed electric looking and now i feel like the ready break character glowing but with a tan. Fab weather and you get in the zone with it and almost get used to it, & i'm just not going to do it moan that is, you can't after all the summers recently you just couldn't :-)
On 04 Jul 2018, Peterg wrote:
The "Great Fire of London" began on the 2nd of September 1666 (early Maunder Minimum) and lasted for 5 days. It had been a long, hot, dry summer and as most of the buildings were made of timber, the timber was bone dry. A strong easterly wind (know then as the Belgium Wind) had set in a few days earlier and it`s this strong wind that helped spread the fire quite rapidly across London. One third of London was destroyed by the fire. Hence my earlier comments about this heatwave being similar to the ones that occurred during the early "Maunder Minimum" https://www.museumoflondon.org.uk/application/files/6514/5511/5493/what-happened-great-fire-london.pdf This does not mean that we are about to have a similar summer, but a close watch needs to be kept on the behaviour of the lows out in the Atlantic over the next two weeks or more.
On 03 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, sunny all day again, lesser sea breeze than yesterday, reflected in higher max temp: 27˚, we’re all soaking up sun for the coming winter. Farmers are beginning to get concerned about the lack of rain, I had to water our potatoes today, good job we have our own supply. 15˚ at 10pm. == Kim: depending on your level of subscription, you might get your forecast mailed to you. Otherwise and in any case, go to the homepage, click on Subscribers, put in your email/user name and password, then go to forecasts, scroll down and you will find the one that applies to you, hope that helps.
On 03 Jul 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Another very warm day .This is 9th day in a row over 27c ( only just over at 27.3 today) and felt fresher too in the easterly breeze.
On 03 Jul 2018, Kim Baker wrote:
Hi WA folk, I have just subcribed please could anyone inform me what happens now?how does one receive the forecast, or how do I log in for them,grateful for any help,thanks🌹
On 03 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The breeze is strong today and helps keep the heat down. As it did yesterday. And it has been a feature of the current warm spell that there has been a strong easterly breeze. Didn't have that in 1976. The fields look ready for a hay cut and we are just into July. When it comes to watering I have to rely on waterbutts as I have a meter. Move house in the SES Water region and they will install a meter. My longterm 20-30yrs neighbours don't have meters.
On 03 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Muggy night some fresh air early this a.m looking like another beautiful blue sky n sunshine day. 19 deg feeling more like 21 @ 9.15 a.m // Yeah sorry Russ sun went to my head yesterday and made me smile and laugh too much, have my mature head on today.
On 03 Jul 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Sorry Russ. It was either a Fiat or a Peugeot to take the flack. The latter being a car that famously used to overheat for me so badly that the brakes locked up and eventually failed. Meanwhile, a refreshing breeze in C London this morning and hopes of some heavy downpours over the next 3 days as High Pressure relents slightly before reasserting itself from the weekend onwards. Much uncertainty about the timing and nature of the breakdown. Still in the unreliable timeframe to bank on it - unless you've subscribed any have seen the July update of course...
On 02 Jul 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Steve - Maria. I wish I could share in your jolity about Fiat reliability. We owned a Stilo 1.2 for 9 years. 115,000 miles still had original clutch, chnged original battery after 95,000 miles. Never changed the brake fluid. Only changed brake discs once around 80,000 miles. Never failed an MOT.
The epitome of a reliable car.
Been all over the place, across Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Cheshire, by train and by car and not a single Swallow or Swift seen anywhere.
Stranger things with very late planted crops like barley, seemed to catch up with the calendar growth wise BUT they started ripening really quickly due to the heat and sunlight. Problem now is water! Poor farmers just can't win. Plant early the crops are killed by late frosts and waterlogged ground. Plant late they are destroyed by drought.
On 02 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, sunny all day but with a very cool E’ly breeze that kept going till early evening, which gave a strange mixture of hot & cold, depending on where on the farm I was working. Max temp still 24˚, many nicely shaped cirrus clouds, fine and now still evening with 15˚ at 9pm.
On 02 Jul 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
increasingly reminds me of 1995--and the cold December that followed.
On 02 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
"As reliable as a Fiat" 😂😂😂 that gave me hysterics 😊 Back warmer again this morning fab sunny day 26 deg at 3pm perfect for drying out from a manic fun water fight with the kids, great to have some quality fun time with them now tiny one 23 weeks old and my feet touching the floor again. Great weather for recharging love it! Enjoy peeps as we never know how long we got it this warm and sunny and yeah we need rain but hey Ireland won't take long to refill its rain love tank thats for sure.
On 02 Jul 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
All out hysteria breaking out on Twitter following the latest GFS 6z output. First of all the 6z is about as reliable as a Fiat and secondly, it is the notoriously fickle GFS system which changes it's mind more times than the wind changes. All eyes on Piers' latest July update which I believe is imminent. My gut feeling is that the heatwave will break down spectacularly just as the kids' summer holidays begin!
On 02 Jul 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Seems that Maria has swapped her nights for ours as last the wind died down and it was much warmer than previous nights. A layer of cloud was around that may well have trapped the heat. At 75F it was too hot to sleep so a fan had to go on to draw the cooler outside air in. Did the trick as I woke at dawn and turned it off, job done. At alarm time it was 64F, well up on previous mornings. Sunshine and at 2pm 83F in the City. Meanwhile Lulea in Sweden has a 12 story high pile of snow to get rid of if anyone needs any. Their concern is that come winter it will still be there leaving them to find somewhere else to put their snow clearance. There is no budget to hire an excavator to spread the snow to help it melt.
On 02 Jul 2018, Lorrane wrote:
Lorraine//sunshine topping 23 degrees last week with continuous drying wind from north east but still muggy last two days forecast thunderstorms which never transpired with mediocre rain with sunshine forecast now for next two weeks can honestly see a drought warning her by end of Juky. Will keep you posted -Guernsey
On 01 Jul 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Fresh air blowing into the bedroom this morning was refreshing and good job i'd dressed the tiny one in an extra layer last night when room read 22 deg as much cooler inside and out than recent early mornings by 4 a.m Still it warmed up to another brill day some welcome cloud at times and breeze to give us some respite mixed in with sunny hot spells, max 27 deg and 17 tonight at 11pm with an almost balmy feel
On 01 Jul 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
16˚C at 7.30, warm S’ly breeze in contrast to the cold wind from the same quarter yesterday, turning into another amazingly sunny day with literally not a cloud in sight for most of it, max temp here 24˚ but where we went for a swim in the river Feugh further inland it was a few degrees warmer, clear end to the day, lovely freshness with 14˚ at 10pm. This far north we rarely get really warm or muggy nights.
On 01 Jul 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Well done piers best spell of summer weather of the century. Not too got either. Very cold winter spells followed by heatwaves. Takes me back to my childhood.
On 01 Jul 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Another hot day reaching 29 c before dropping back this afternoon in the hazy sun , still 22 c at 2000hrs . The one observation I forgot to mention yesterday was the “ autumn” colours on some of the younger trees , namely birch trees and some already shedding leaves. Strange to see at this time of year.
On 30 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Totally making the most of the weather and although the heat has dropped off a little we still reached 29 today and with it not being as intense as the last week we could really enjoy it, some thin cloud went on past but again on the whole blue sky and sunshine with only a couple of cloudy moments. Great night for a BBQ fab sky again and 18 deg at 11pm Our house still hanging on to its heat and at 22deg only a few deg cooler tonight but we all getting used to it now :-)
On 30 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Very breezy today verging on windy which kept the temperature in check. Only made it to 69F at 11am and then into the high 70s during the afternoon before plunging back down in the evenings as 11pm it is now 64F. Very dry now with even the clover starting to wilt.
On 30 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, sunny and totally cloudless for most of the day, strong & cold S’ly wind keeping temps down somewhat, otherwise we would have had more than the 20˚ max, which was still very agreeable, 13˚ by 10pm and quite still, humid & cool. == Bill S, I can also report good plant growth, surface of earth very dry but still plenty humidity down below after 12 wet summers, might have to water potatoes though, strawberries in tunnel in full flow.
On 30 Jun 2018, BillS N E Wales wrote:
Another dry month only 21.2mm most falling in the first few days of the month. Warm month too with the last 6 days being above 27c. Max recorded was 33c on 26th ( probably a degree high as the MO reported 32c locally) plants desperately dry glad there are no water restrictions here so able to give soft fruits and raised beds some good soakings. Glut of strawberries now over, blackcurrants picked and jammed today ,raspberries had first pickings this afternoon.
On 30 Jun 2018, Geoffrey hood wrote:
45 day subscriber, Well done piers i have just returned for a 10 days in south Devon which i booked using your 45 day predictions, i have changed from white to pink and then to brown, brilliant sunshine all week thanks
On 30 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yellow Drought warning has been issued for the coming week for Ireland this morning ☺
On 30 Jun 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Over the last week or two I have found mobile phone data reception far poorer than usual in London, Bedfordshire and travelling in between and very erratic. Is this anything to do with the high solar wind Piers referred to on Twitter a few days back?
On 29 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
28.06.18 A whopping 17˚ C at 7.30, warmest morning this year and prelude to a scorcher of a day with a max temp of 29˚, which for us up here is big news, good job we had a nice cooling sea breeze. Wall to wall sunshine with just some appealing cirrus formations up above, still 16˚ at 10pm. Agree Steven Wright, June forecast was spot on! == 29.06.18 = 12˚C at 7.30, foggy and cool, lifting a bit mid morning but staying grey until mid afternoon when it began to brighten and get to a max temp of 19˚, we had a sunny but cool end to the day, all in a light NE’ly breeze, 10˚ at 10.30pm, total contrast to yesterday. To see how we cope with heat in Scotland, see here https://twitter.com/bbccomedy/status/1011168149855723520
On 29 Jun 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Last night was so hot where heat had accumulated even though we had a breeze earlier in the late aft.that just blew hot air around it subsided by eve. 18 deg. Last night until it dropped to 16 around 12/1 a.m Beautiful again at 5 a.m this morning and sat outside at 6 for breakfast and to get feet on the grass, 17 by 7 a.m and another beautiful day max 29/30 deg hot hot and 24 still at 7.34pm fab blue sky all week to make the most of and lovely evening sky. Light breeze this eve. and either i'm getting the hang of the heat or its tailing off a tiny bit.
On 29 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A lovely moon last night and Saturn should have been in view with the rings visible with a telescope or binoculars. Same pattern of weather, an easterly breeze in the country taking the day's heat away rapidly. After the cloud yesterday it was blue sky from the word go. 55F at 7am but now 76F in town. Good June forecast and I hope for the same in July although a bit of refreshing rain would be nice.
On 28 Jun 2018, steven wright wrote:
a good forecast for june I hope the rest of summer continues in the same vain just a question to ask when there is low sunspots is it easier to predict the weather and does for uk for example that when there is low sunspots that the summers tend to be a lot warmer and winters colder
On 28 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Its not funny but is a bit crazy how water restrictions going into action when we ordinarily get so much rain, glad we have a temporary kitchen but we have a bore hole, still being careful with water though as never take it for granted. Off out to see if cool enough to sunbathe might actually get tanned legs this year 😅
On 28 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Gees its 30deg here at 4.29pm and no let up yet to get outside, hotter first thing too than yesterday now that wev'e been hot all week I guess its topping up. Just presumed uk as hot as not had time to read weather
On 28 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Interesting the difference between Surrey and Ireland. I went outside at 7.30pm in shorts and t-shirt to deadhead some roses and within an hour and out from the sheltered part of the garden with the strong breeze I was actually starting to feel chilly. Breeze from east to west continuing after dark and helping cool the upstairs. Today it was overcast this morning and just 55F at 7am. Cloud has cleared now and it is a warm day in the City. 76F approaching 2pm.
On 28 Jun 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wow another scorcher ( 27th) and by late aft. it was unreal heat & we had reached 30 deg here. Not moaning as I love the heat as much as snow but you just had to be sensible today esp. after seeing some real bad sunburn pics!-) Kids and I ventured out at 6pm was still 27 deg and sun shining but the shade was created by the red oak tree thats just getting big enough to dapple shade the paddling pool. Fans didn't really put a dent in the 25 deg indoors upstairs heat until 11pm taking it down to a kinder 23 so a late night for the 2 youngest before they could go up to bed. Midnight feet on the lawn ahhh bliss...14 deg now at 1.50 a.m
On 27 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, foggy start but brightening up by 9am, strong S’ly wind which stopped temps rising beyond 22˚ but still a fabulous blue sky day with wispy cirrus clouds, the haar was never far away though and almost reached us by evening but remarkably, it stayed clear with us all evening, 12˚ at 10pm.
On 27 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Breezy yesterday which makes a big difference to taming the heat, especially in the evening if it keeps blowing. Nice and cool come bedtime after being in the low 80s during the day. Grass not really needing cutting as growth has dropped right off. A horse owning colleague has had to buy in hay as the grass has all been grazed. Is there a July 45d forecast yet?
On 27 Jun 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Muggy to start this morning 26th with some cloud about, looked like it could rain but instead sunshine cracked on through and another beautiful day, some high cloud and high temps again 29 deg with a real feel of 31, hard work kicking into work gear at 6 a.m after tiny ones feed at 5.00 but has to be done to slot in a few hours outside as by 10 a.m it is too hot for her out, managed 2 short sunbathe slots for some me time though inbetween and was fab 😅 lovin the heat even more so with the light breeze we had for a short time. Eating outside has become the way of life and was a great eve. Stuffy indoors late eve. makes you want to sleep outside. Just turning fans off at 12.12 a.m as finally dropped another deg. Or two and 16deg now.
On 26 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C overnight, 12˚ at 7.30, foggy start to the day followed by a sunny warm morning, 19˚ max by 11am, but then the haar moved in and it cooled down to 14˚ eventually, 11˚ by 10pm.
On 26 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
As expected, the air cooled last night but with no breeze the big fans took my bedroom from 83F down to 60F by bringing in the cool air. So feet under the duvet last night. As 11am approaches it is 73F already. Meanwhile it has snowed on Mount Etna and is more like March in parts of Italy. Snow has fallen in the Carpathians and in Poland. Contrary to the warmest evah claims and never see snow again in winter, let alone June.
On 25 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C overnight, 12˚ at 7.30, sunny from the word go temps climbing rapidly to a max of 25˚ by 11am, after which the cooling SE’ly sea breeze set in as it always does with us in HP weather, quite a few cirrus clouds but they didn’t impede the sunshine much, so a glorious day. 13˚ at 9.30pm.
On 25 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Watching the football and they commented on the heat in the city they are in, then said the MetO have declared the warmest day of the year in St. James's Park in the centre of the largest city in the UK. Strangely though my thermometer on the wall in a corner of my patio and still in shade concurs at 84F. However overnight the big gap will emerge between UHI and everywhere else. We have some breeze but I suspect it will die come sundown, so big fans it will be to cool my bedroom.
On 25 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Agree, Maria - well done Piers. Well, last night at home it nothing on the bed and some shorts on me. I forgot to use the big fan to blow the heat out and draw the cool in as there was no breeze to speak of. However, I wonder if I had been camping in the garden as it did feel cool outside. While nice weather is good for days off and won't it be a hoot if it pours down when I return on Wednesday but I have work to do which is a struggle in the heat, although writing this looking out at the glorious day through my open study stable door over coffee and croissants. I am not sure I can spend all day in the shady parts. The Mail today is proud to say it will be hotter than Rio de Janeiro. Not sure why they chose there but of course it is winter in South America and shaping up for another cold one that could see more records broken.
On 25 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Well done Piers spot on, your forecast and the weather are jammin 🌞
On 25 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yeah feet are a good measure of weather Gerry..everybodys 👣 were hanging out last night I reckon!-) 18 deg. already this morning its going to be a hot one 😎
On 24 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A grow bag for children??? That's a new one on me. Tomatoes maybe, soft fruit perhaps. Do they come in peat-free versions? As Maria has mentioned bags it is a good measure of night time temp whether my feet are in or out of my sleeping bag. At Lydden Hill circuit in Kent the last 2 nights were a definite in. After a warm day on Friday, it was a cool night at the track. Yesterday was a pleasant day with a stiff breeze across the circuit and lots of sun but with some cloud at times. The moon was out as the temp dropped. Today was actually chilly in the shade with the breeze but the sun was out all day. The breeze ensured that the aroma of 2 stroke and Castrol R was spread around, and in the last 3 wheeler race even hot brakes could be smelt. While away at the track, today the village had a hog roast and were enjoying the sunshine as I drove past on my way home.
On 24 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yesterday and especially today fab sunny hot days a nice breeze yesterday but only a tickle of one today, had to be a lot more vigilant today with the tiny one, again out in early morn. then in for a good bit, too hot for the baby carrier and definitely too hot for pram, 23 deg yesterday 26 today with a real feel of 29, found a nice shaded spot to eat outside again this eve. Some water fun sorted for big kids 😜 and lil tiny paddling pool to put some lukewarm water in for the tiny one n even padded on the floor these days a bonus she loved it. Striking sky tonight &17 deg at 11pm
On 24 Jun 2018, Lorrainr wrote:
Lorraine//interesting Piers may find this interesting
The Guernsey sea temperature in 2017 on 24 June 2017 was 16 degrees - 24 June 2018 is 14 degrees - mmm,!
On 24 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, pretty cloudy to start with but then brightening and warming up fabulously, reaching a max of 24˚ by midday but then cooling somewhat in the fresh SE’ly breeze. Clouds were blowing off the sea but didn’t turn into haar, though it was somewhat cooler on the coast where we went to visit friends. Splendid sunny evening with a cloudless sky, 13˚ at 10pm.
On 23 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, overcast & still for a start but a WNW’ly breeze set in during the morning and cleared some of the clouds away, leaving us with pleasantly warm day with a max temp of 22˚, the clouds got quite dark & menacing by the end of the afternoon but no rain came of them, still 16˚ at 9.30pm.
On 23 Jun 2018, Andy B 45D wrote:
Are you going to update July 45 d forecast from 14c to 15a Piers? Or is there not much difference?
On 23 Jun 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
No signs of any form of minimum in NW London. June has continued where May left off: very dry, very mild nights, days consistently above 20C. The apple tree 'June Drop' has happened on time, starting June 10th. Peas are now ready to harvest, broad beans already finished.
What we actually have is a drought.
As for odd cold snaps in Europe, go research 15th July 1981. 20cm of snow down to Alpine valleys at 800m in Austria, considerably more on the mountains. That was 37 years ago, so if that was a sign of Maunder, we should be well into it by now. We are not, so it is clear that freak cold weather in high summer can happen in Europe, solar minimum or not. That actually happened close to solar maximum. There was a long, cold and sustained snowy winter in 1981/2, however. So if you subscribe to the 18.6 year solar-lunar cycle, maybe winter 2018/19 will be cold, snowy or both...
On 23 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Saw my first Swifts about a week ago but I was on a hillside yesterday with wall to wall blue sky and hot sun, slight cool breeze, loads of insects of all sizes and types including calling grasshoppers, and just about the best place I know for watching Swallows and Swifts. You sit on the soft tussocky grass and look down on the birds as they fly past, often relatively slowly into a strong breeze. A unique viewpoint as Swifts are usually above you 99.9% of the time. The bad news? No Swallows and only one Swift passing by. Normally there would be around 30 Swallows and maybe 5 or 6 Swifts flying to & fro across that hillside in such conditions. The strong moorland grasses have started growing really fast this past week, now the peat has dried. Especially across the paths and tracks which bodes well for the coming winter as the paths should be less muddy, with more grass binding the surface together.
On 22 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:
Woke up at 5.30 a.m to feed the tiny one and she was actually a little chilly considering she had on her vest sleepsuit and I had also been putting her back in her lower tog sleeping grow bag whilst cooler at night :-) only had the window open a crack, checked and it was only 5 deg outside so fairly chilly for late June. Warmed up to a lovely sunny day 23 deg & hotter than yesterday although yesterday was nice too. One more week til the kids break up for summer, looking forward to some summer activities with the kids 🌞
On 22 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, cloudy and still quite blowy from the NW but slowly diminishing, very bright and very cloudy spells alternating, some fabulous lenticular clouds, 20˚ max, lovely bright end to the day, always a special time of year when it gets barely dark, 12˚ at 10pm.
On 22 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
In the warmest time evah it was a mere 49F at alarm time this morning - 0708 to be exact. There was a lack of breeze last night and it was certainly warm in the house so it was fire up the 18 inch fan - only £29.99 from Screwfix - and on speed 3 it shifts some air. So much so that there was even a cooling breeze coming in through the stable door in my study. So after the clear night it has been sun all the way and now 70F in the City. The MetO have already started their heatwave claims and warmer than Spain etc. Yawn. Meanwhile 1600 people are trapped by snow in Chile as their winter gets under way.
On 21 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C overnight, 9˚ at 7.30 in a cold and strengthening NW’ly wind, sunny though for most of the day bar a few darkly cloudy intervals. It was a wild day though with a max temp of only 15˚, that’s the second Thursday running that we’ve had a near gale, more branches off trees. 11˚ at 9.30pm.
On 21 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Good British bottle-conditioned beers create their own co2 so supplies will be uninterrupted. And the cask-conditioned beers are still rolling along the filling lines and onto the drays. what I didn't know was how much it is used in the food industry and in particular to suffocate chickens and pigs! I thought it was all electric needles. Still the BBC have used this crisis to sneak out a tweet that built up areas are something like 5C warmer than the countryside. Isn't that strange... a match for what I see on my car thermometer when driving out from the suburbs ib the evening, and higher than the 1C Climate Crook Jones has claimed. Meanwhile as winter barely gets going, 600 have succumbed to the cold in Peru. Today actually started sunny and is 65F in the City. So this week also sees 30 years since global warming was invented.
On 21 Jun 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PETERG; right with you on that. Fresh snow on Scottish 'Munros' this morning and frost likely in glens tonight. The forthcoming pattern would result in low winter temperatures and minimal windpower outputs.
On 21 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Correction, solstice is at 11.07, got my information from a Continental source.
On 21 Jun 2018, Peterg wrote:
A heatwave will be with us next week, there is no dought about this. However this is a subtle heatwave in that it`s the type of heatwave that occurred during the early part of the "Maunder Minimum". By the middle of next week it will be sweeping arctic air across most of european Russia and right down to the Balkans.
Wxcharts.eu "temperature anomaly" chart, for the end of next week, shows temperatures below normal for most of North Africa, Spain, Balkans, european Russia and Finland. Also it points the way for some very severe spells of weather for the forthcoming winter
On 20 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, overnight rain continuing until 8, some of it very heavy, blustery NW’ly wind keeping temps down until midday after which we had a bit of sun and a max temp of 17˚, cool again thereafter as well as a few light showers, 10˚ at 10pm. I know, Ron, but in spite of the ups & downs of temperature, vegetables & plant life in general are doing well, somehow we’re getting a bit of warmth on most days, the sun being at its highest now. Summer solstice at 13.07 tomorrow, Steve & Gerry you might crack a can of beer in celebration… if there is any left :-)
On 20 Jun 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
looks like a long hot spell from next week
On 20 Jun 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Paddy: chilly morning and now early evening too--a bit September-like again
On 20 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Steve - nice pic links on iceagenow showing icicles in Alice Springs. You could take some Spanish solar panels with you that work 24/7. You wonder how close it is in Australia to being cheaper to buy a diesel generator than use the grid. For companies onsite generation might already be cheaper - certainly more reliable. For those that remain on the grid that would be bad news. Luckily there is a solution to the co2 shortage - good British cask beers that produce their own co2 in the barrel. Food/drink industry use co2 from ammonia production apparently and 2 plants are in shutdown at the moment. Deliciously ironic you have to admit. Another cloudy start to the day but sun out now and 71F at 2pm. Fields either side of the path to the station have been cut for silage producing a wonderful smell and a large flock of jackdaws each day.
On 20 Jun 2018, C View wrote:
The ultimate irony. A story on the BBC website today tells of beer production being curtailed due to a Co2 shortage!!!!!!! With beers in high demand due to the World Cup this is causing brewers problems.
On 19 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, overcast and really feeling cold in the W’ly breeze, had to keep my jumper on for most of the morning, warmer in the afternoon with a max of 19˚ and a few glimpses of the sun, light rain from 8pm, 11˚ by 10pm.
On 19 Jun 2018, Andy B 45D wrote:
When is July 45day forecast coming out?
On 19 Jun 2018, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Some nice weather on the way again. No doubt it's due to climate change and more CO2 lies!
On 19 Jun 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Social media going into overdrive regarding potential for UK-wide heatwave conditions next week. GFS progs temperatures clipping 32c in SE England by Weds 27th June. For people who suffer in the heat like myself, this is the worst time of year. Maybe I'll move to Australia for a few months. Will need to fork out for a power generator when I get there though eh Gerry? ;-)
On 19 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
After a cool start it was a warm day yesterday but it was also very breezy which kept some of the edge off the heat if you were out and about. Cloudy start to yesterday. Sunnier from the start today, wind has dropped but still only 72F in the City. Australia is suffering from a cold spell and due to their stupid politicians, their power grid is struggling. Worth watching since morons like Perry and Clark think this is a great model for the UK. Hopefully Jo Nova will cover it tomorrow to give full details.
On 18 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, quite cloudy to start with but then turning into a bright sunny day, albeit with big clouds from time to time, blustery WSW wind from the word go but still got to a nice 20˚, the wind was quite refreshing and turning more into the W by afternoon, dropping temps down to 10˚ by 10pm. Another great summery day for us.
On 18 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Wet and breezy mostly the last few days, also cooler until today, good chance to get boring jobs like cleaning the oven done, some sun this afternoon with a breezy wsw wind and cloudy so maybe some more showers yet like earlier before the day ends. Max 18 deg.
On 17 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, bright but wet from yesterday’s rain which provided a good soaking, a fairly sunny & warm day, max temp 20˚, to about 4pm when the clouds moved in and it got markedly cooler, SW - S ‘ly breeze, 13˚ at 10pm.
On 17 Jun 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Nothing of note my way from the recent named weather system. A bit breezy perhaps. Lovely day on Friday and warm as well but it soon cools in the evening. A strong breeze from the west over the weekend and cool. Just having a small window open either side of the upstairs allows a cooling airflow. Warm when the sun is out but cool otherwise and just 64F at 2.30pm, but I am sure the MetO and their former pals at the BBC will conjure up one of the warmest Junes evah! A few light showers this morning, the first rain for a while. Cloud keeping the warm sun at bay.
On 16 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, sunny, warming up nicely in a S’ly breeze to a max of 18˚, though when clouds moved in by late morning it cooled down and we had quite a bit of rain between 3 - 8pm, much needed, I have to say, 10˚ by 9pm & feeling fresh.
On 15 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, bright and sunny day albeit with quite a few dark clouds but no rain, still a stiff SW’ly breeze and a max temp of 20˚, back down to 11˚ by 10pm. If the summer goes like today we’ll be more than happy.
On 14 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, overcast & wet from the overnight rain with a strengthening SW’ly wind, brightening up after 8 and warming to 19˚ when the sun came out. But it was a wild old day with a proper gale eventually, taking a few branches off trees, the wind gradually turning into the W and NW by evening and abating, cooling the air to a chilly 9˚ by 10pm. Yes, Ron, September sounds about right.
On 14 Jun 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
almost like early September today with heavy overnight rain ( much needed) and strong winds still continuing
On 14 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Well our wild, wet n windy turned out to be a warm, humid breeze. Total fizzle from the rain clouds over us...again! The Met have toned down the heavy weather for Friday through Saturday and by Monday they are using the word "perhaps". If you are making predictions based on scientific expertise and massive computing power then I don't think the word perhaps should be part of your vocabulary. Perhaps means 'chance' and chance is quite literally the toss of a coin.
On 14 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Orange and yellow weather warnings in place for storm tonight into tomorrow in parts of the N and W looks like we won't get as much here just a bit wet n windy picking up a little now just after midnight. I think its an R4 period atm so no surprise a change in weather.
On 13 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast and windy from the S, some sunshine in the morning and warming up nicely to a max of 20˚ by midday, wind strengthening and light rain starting up around 4pm & getting steadily stronger, we got a reasonable soaking until about 9pm when it began to clear, more coming overnight though, this will give the vegetation a boost, exactly as you say, Russ :-). 12˚ at 10pm.
On 13 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Yes we had 15 inches of snow in the Sahara earlier in the year and it's t-shirts and sun tans in the Himalayan glaciers. What a crazy world. Met is promising wet n windy but the huge dollop of cloud only seems to be watering your plants Paddy. As usual it's all fizzling out before it reaches us. We'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Could do with cold, wet & windy. It is June after all! At least the dry period has slowed the hedge and grass growth to a more manageable rate.
On 12 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, brrr - after experiencing up to 30˚ in Switzerland in the last 10 days, as well as almost daily thunderstorms. Whereas back here we have now had a full month without any significant rain but everything is lush and green, plenty moisture in the ground still. Todays cool and overcast weather took a bit of getting used to again, max temp 12˚, down to 11˚ by 10pm. The upside is that the weeds have not grown much in our absence, so we haven’t come back to an impenetrable jungle.
On 12 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Overcast today with no sunny spells as yet, just 62F in town. Could be worse as iceagenow reports snowfalls in Anchorage and British Columbia with some forecast for Montana. Snow at this time in not unknown but in Anchorage the norm might be an inch not the 6-8 ins they got. And yet this is supposed to be a scary warm period for the planet.
On 11 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Heavy snow in Peru causing problems for livestock while here silage cutting is in full swing having followed a trailer full of grass back from my successful MOT test. Enjoyed the wait for my car watching the cricket on the village green with swifts circling the norman church, a biplane flying over to the N Downs, clock chiming the quarters - you would not believe that the M25 lay just to the north of the town. A lot of easterly breezes at the moment as we have the Gatwick traffic taking off our way. Nice again yesterday with some spells of cloud. After some cloud this morning it is now sunny and 73F. The main arena at the show on Friday had housemartins swooping over it throughout the day.
On 11 Jun 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Piers. Do you know when the August (100d) forecast will be released please? Thanks, Steve
On 11 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
We can hardly see the effects yet unless we look farther afield across the world. Crop losses all over the place and happening more often....... Up to 3 Swallows now yippeeee!
On 11 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Oh come on now....this warm sunny weather is getting boring. The poor farmers must be losing sleep. Very late and very cold spring and waterlogged fields, followed by drought with the occasional flash flood. I suppose one could say that the coming little ice age conditions, in the UK at least, will end up being a mixed bag of typical British weather but every event being at a much increased level. Heavier rain, more prolonged downpours, cooler cold snaps, longer droughts. If you look at extremes in the US like their droughts, these were areas that already had droughts due to location but in the 1940-72 cooling period, some years these became more severe than the usual and much longer lasting. It doesn't take much to turn a normal cold winter in England into 15ft snow drifts. A small change in wind direction, a few degrees less in temperature, a slight rise in humidity and boing...instant chaos.
On 10 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
First Swallow spotted 5 miles south of Buxton. Just the one.
On 10 Jun 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Well if there one consistent feature in the proposed LIA we are supposedly now in, it is drought in spring/early summer in NW London. It is the only consistent feature of the last three years.
All we are actually seeing is redistribution of rainfall around Europe. Italy, France, Switzerland, even Germany are getting what we are missing. Rain is coming north from the med so we here are in rainshadow. Blocking highs prevent Atlantic Westerlies wetting our soils.
A minor move toward a more continental climate, not much else...
On 09 Jun 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
What a lovely day. Nice breeze, not too hot. Shame the cloud rolled in from 4pm but then was gone come show end at 6.30pm. As a motorcycle racing fan it might seem a bit strange but the showjumping and the scurry racing were excellent edge of the seat - had I been sitting - stuff, with the crowd groaning as a fence came down or a cone was hit. The livestock display is always wonderful as the magnificent examples of the breeds are paraded around the ring. Does the Shetland pony grand national need any explanation as to why it is a joy to watch? Interestingly at the Saxon encampment they were saying how cold it was on Thursday - the first show day. Meanwhile parts of Canada have received damaging frosts and in northern Sweden they awoke to a blanket of snow. While not unusual, the snow arrived quickly and without warning. A solution for Maria, tape a picture of an eagle to your front door.
On 09 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A muggy night and 2 & half hrs sleep where my own insomnia kept me awake and then a raven decided to keep headbutting the front doors downstairs at 5.30 a.m The day was bright and hot very quickly and after staying up and getting everything and everyone watered and sorted we embarked on a 9 a.m trip out to pick up essentials, on our return around lunchtime the heat was increasing around 24deg and so many amazing clouds the sky was electric, again only a few
rumbles of thunder back at home but it was kicking off a few more in the distance, Orange thunder warning got downgraded to a yellow and not as much rain as forecasted by met, no 50mm here but enough to give grass and plants a refresh and smells beautiful out tonight, amazing sky at sundown 17 deg and humid just before midnight with a light wisp of an almost breeze. Bird also came back for another headbutt session late aft. I used a yellow highlighter on the door and drew up and down and across and it only came back once after.
On 07 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A nice spell of weather being dry and not hot, and the bonus is that it is cold in the evenings so by having the windows open, come bedtime I have switched to warmer pyjamas and snuggle under the duvet. With the dry spell the subject of watering is moving front and centre. Another nice day would go well tomorrow for the South of England show. Swifts wheeling around the church yesterday evening and fields being cut for silage I presume as it must be early for hay.
On 07 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Well we didn't get anything more than rumbles of thunder in the distance on 1st but we did get some rain to help the garden, back since to fab weather and great temps. Some mostly blue sky and majority sunny other days some cloud chucked in to keep us from totally frying. A nice breeze today so me and the tiny one took some time off to sit under the chestnut tree and soak it all in the sounds n sights of summer, great space for shading her and then a gap for me to catch some much needed vit D. Nice to chill after sweating training gardening and other tasks, a cold beer would have gone down nice but will be worth the wait next year so a nice walk this eve. instead with the crew & was still 20 deg at 8pm hope the good weather continues 👍
On 04 Jun 2018, Gerry, 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A warm and pleasant, and dry weekend. Some cloud at times to keep it cooler. Undergrowth plants such as brambles are really putting on a growth spurt while the lawn growth has slowed down such that I decided the daisies could stay a bit longer as the grass was still a reasonable length. May was, apparently, the hottest evah! But then in true MetO cherry picking style, they claim that the records start in 1910, which ignores the CET going back to the 1600s, and where we find 1833 as the warmest May on record. With just days to go, teams playing in Moscow might need a coat as they had their first sub-zero June reading on record.
On 03 Jun 2018, eastside wrote:
It was the hottest may in about 30 years in Estonia & Finland, and the Meteo fr Have it right it was the stormiest May in about 30 yrs in France,- still set to continue all this week btw.
On 02 Jun 2018, Ben Farrington, Sub, Moray wrote:
The stats are in for May and make for interesting reading. For my region Moray - Precipitation WA forecast 100 - 200% actual 25% (one of the driest May since 1921), Temps WA forecast - 3.5 - 2.5 actual + 1.5 - 2.0, much warmer, Sunshine WA forecast 35 - 70% actual 130 - 150%. Conclusion much warmer, dryer and sunnier than forecast. I hope June gets back on track with the updated Slat15, as my confidence has taken a knock.
On 01 Jun 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
We were off on holiday this morning but our flight was cancelled due to huge thunderstorms in Amsterdam, rebooked for tomorrow, so the first day of our hols was spent doing useful things at home on another amazingly sunny day with a max temp of 25˚, down to 15˚ by 9.30pm. The strengthening S’ly breeze was actually a welcome relief, there were some majestic cumulus towers rising further inland, looking like possible thunderstorms but nothing happened. Despite the dry conditions, veg in the garden are growing by leaps & bounds, still plenty wet underneath and deep down.
On 01 Jun 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Have been watching it slowly moving in since 2.40pm ish finally at 4.15 ish can hear first rumbles of thunder in distance, lots of activity on blitz app. Happy days 😄
On 01 Jun 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Our 'friends' at the MetO had a yellow warning for London and the SE yesterday through until 9am today. Anyone see any storms? Some light rain during the evening and very muggy. A lot of low cloud this morning and some drizzle but bright now in the City. Up to 72F at 2pm. Seems now Champagne vines have been hit but damage is much less than in Bordeaux and Cognac. Muppet writing in CityAM brings up climate change drivel.
On 01 Jun 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paul, Bedfordshire: Maybe there are extra insects in your area due to farmers planting late and therefore spraying late. So temporarily more insects are surviving through what would have been a normal spraying season. Could just be the warm sunny weather...... More insane ideas from the environmental charlatans. Looks like a great idea on paper, but don't they have a panel of experts look over the idea before implementation, to iron out any anomalies? >> https://youtu.be/emBY6phmn9E << I wonder what effect it would have on a flock of hundreds of Swallows passerining through? If they attract insects, why don't the insects frazzle along with the birds?
On 01 Jun 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
May has been a very dry month my weather station recording 28mm, most fell in the last week . Fortunately this area has been on the border of the really torrential thundery downpours, getting off with late afternoon /evening showers. To note how dry , I’ve had to water the garden several times this is in stark contrast to the very wet March and April. . On a positive note strawberries raspberries and blacurrants are doing really well.
On 31 May 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// swallows but no swifts as yet Guernsey but will check next week South Africa did have a massive drought before April though
On 31 May 2018, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Most intensive thunderstorms I can remember for years.
I don't know if anyone else has noticed but I have had far more insects squashed on windscreen in recent couple of weeks than for a long time.
I recall seeing a while back on tv claims that far fewer bugs on windscreens and this was (of course) due to climate change. Something else about to be demolished by coming MIA
Have packed up allotment now but was noticing that weather was making it much harder in recent years with cold/wet spells shortening growing season at both ends and far more dry spells in summer/irregular rain. I gather from those with one still that this year is a disaster.
On good news my mason bee population has finally recovered after being decimated in Dec 2010s arctic temperatures. I feared the worst after beast from the east.
On 31 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
As it was a pleasant evening I went for stroll round the orchard and did some rose pruning. I noticed that the tips of all the new growth on a recently planted plum tree were gone or hanging off. Since some were hanging off I think animals can be ruled out. So was it the huge downpours of rain that did it? Anyone seen anything similar?
On 30 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Wow a continuation of beautiful weather 👍 asparagus omelets for breakfast outside in the morning, homework outside with kids after school, some fun & then relaxing with dinner outside of an evening feels like summer 🌼 A cloudy start this morn. sun won out and around 24 deg some amazing cumulus clouds for a time this afternoon and great skyscapes this eve. Tiny ones 2nd jabs today so we probably going to do some more weather watching tog.tonight :) 15 deg at
11.30pm
On 30 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast with a variable N’ly breeze, brightening up after 10 and getting quite warm at times with a max temp of 22˚, cloudy afternoon with bright spells and a very few drops of rain around 8pm, 15˚ at 10pm.
On 30 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Thunderstorms and heavy rain passing across the City yesterday and causing problems on the roads and rails in Kent. As a train user I am suffering the joys of the new timetable and the frequent cancellations which is particularly bad since our direct service to London Bridge went to Thameslink. And so with lots of cancellations in the morning I drove to an alternative station. Just to cap the day off the home train was also cancelled. On my drive back home the roads were now back to their winter worst with huge lakes all along the route. An indication that we caught some rain during the day. After about 11pm we had more downpours and a few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder. Dry and bright today. Bordeaux & Cognac have been hit by huge hailstorm that has for some wiped out 100% of the vine crop. Following last year's frost bankruptcy looms for some. Not good news as I like my Cognac but welcome to the LIA.
On 30 May 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for a long non-Atlantic phase of weather warm/hot until at least mid June. No polar maritime air any time soon. Might be down to it being-----summer!
On 29 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, foggy start but clearing by 8.30 to leave us with yet another amazingly sunny day, not quite as hot as yesterday but still 23˚ max with a slightly fresher N’ly breeze. Remarkable variety of cirrus clouds, followed later on by many cumulus cloud streets, perhaps presaging the cooler & cloudier conditions expected from tomorrow. Still 14˚ at 9.30pm. == Swallow update: I was mistaken when I reported a breeding pair here: they appear to be two males or females just living on the farm for the summer, no breeding companions, sad.
On 29 May 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
This is why MIA conditions are a that to crops - if it happens again next year done farmers could go busy, although other areas may benefit ===
"It was enough for a quarter of an hour of hail Saturday, May 19 in the early afternoon, to destroy the entire crop . In Bonnieux (Vaucluse) 11,000 tons are produced per year of the famous cherry of the Luberon. It could remain this year only 300 tons. Major damage is also to be deplored in the neighboring villages. ***Last year it was the frost and drought of the region***...Some vines have seen ten centimeters of hailstones on the ground, more than 60 millimeters of water in half an hour. For these, no grapes this year. They are lost and damaged to such an extent that the future of the next harvest is already threatened.===
https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/economie/emploi/metiers/agriculture/vaucluse
On 29 May 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Re:Swallows numbers do seem down (as are House Martins). I've been wondering of this is due to the late cold in Europe this year creating unfavorable conditions over the migration routes. I thought this content on a bird forum in mid may is pertinent =="Persistent low pressure in the Med with heavy fresh snow in the Pyrenees and Alps, plus severe thunder & hail storms over much of central and southern Europe. So quite possible some birds still being held up, and/or killed by the weather."===
https://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=361674
The BTO show a similar dearth === https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/chart.png === you can track other birds here ===
https://app.bto.org/birdtrack/main/data-home.jsp ===
On 29 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Not just the UK Piers... https://phys.org/news/2014-07-swallows.html .... That was 4 years ago and on a different continent so the problem isn't new, or unique to the UK... I suppose the mighty Beeb will blame global warming. Logic tells me that if that were true, then the birds would simply move further north where the climate is cooler. Isn't that why the Swallows migrate away from Africa in the first place? Also, more heat in Africa would make them migrate earlier not later. Isn't logic wonderful?
On 29 May 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS! Great Comms. I have started on twitter #WhereHaveAllTheSwallowsGone and my tweet is getting a high ReTweet rate - about 11 in half a day and 6 comments so far. The comments give other news on #swallows so I suggest have a look and we might get a map of what's happening in UK+Eire after a few days =+=+= LORRAINE I too like your seasons. I suppose the fact that the 21st of March, June, Sept, Dec is about 7 days after the numerical mid of your seasons (so the 2 halves are 2 weeks different in length) does not matter; mid meaning an astronomical essential date. =+=+=+= The thunder and lightning impressive I notice reports and what I experienced in London show the local storms were very intense and rapid with large rain drops making them almost like hail. A question must be: Is this intensification greater in the R4 period/ - which although forecast as May28 to June 1+-1d is probably May27-31 and significant on a world scale with amazing hail deluges reported on twitter.
On 28 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
13˚C at 7.30 and rising steadily, wall to wall blue sky all day and a real scorcher with a max of 25˚, highest so far this year and pretty hot for our coastal strip with the cooling NE - SE’ly sea breeze, it’ll have been really hot inland, fog coming in by 10pm when we had 13˚ again. A friend who was in Edinburgh yesterday said they’d had haar, not hair, all day and 10-11˚, requiring extra effort to stay cheery. I can’t believe our luck re sunshine this month, much cold also but that was a price worth paying. == Lorraine, I like your calendar/seasonal notes, they do make a lot of sense.
On 28 May 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// watching spring watch - spring this spring that but according to the pagan calendar summer started May 1st mid summer 21June end of summer 1st August following that 1st August first day of autumn 21st September mid autumn and last day of Autumn 1st of November and then first day of winter 1st of November mid winter 21st December last day of winter 1st February therefore first day of spring 1st February mid spring 21st March and last day of spring 1st May and my point if you go by that you will notice our seasons are perfectly aligned to nature
On 28 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy....my thoughts too about the Swallows being hit on their way here. Reports much further south but this whole area is devoid not just Swallows but Swifts and Martins. I will endeavour to scour a much wider area in search of the little blighters. It's only very late for Swifts but ridiculously late for Swallows. I wonder if they all ended up in pickle jars? That would explain the loss of a whole flock of thousands, destined for the tables of the 'not too fussy what they eat' types! Wholesale slaughter? Or just lack of food due to sudden onset of severe frosts? We shall see....
On 28 May 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
The forecast said storms overnight and this afternoon but nothing. The main problem at Lydden Hill was dust. They should have run the bowser round the offroad sections on Friday to soak them and lay the dust. The Superlites had to just run on the tarmac as it was too dangerous to run offroad. Saturday had a strong breeze across the circuit to keep it cool but today it was still and hot out of the shady part of the track. As track action wasn't until 10.30 this morning I was hoping for a lie in but the sun beating down on the tent from as early as 7am made it too hot. There were some a few spots of rain on Saturday but the nearby storm missed the circuit. On getting home it looks like there had been some rain.
On 27 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Wow 3170 Lightning strikes recorded tonight above London in the Luton Bedford area according to Blitzortung app. A few distant rumbles of thunder early hours here but no storm for us as yet tho looks positively electric tonight. Only a few light showers overnight but the last 2 days fab dry & warm although cloudier than Friday, great for getting on outside until today as woke up with no voice due to a virus, so a nice peaceful Sunday 🙊
On 27 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, sunny with a cool N’ly breeze which turned into the SE as the afternoon sea breeze, max temp 23˚, down to 15˚ by 9pm. Two weeks without rain, amazing. == Yeah, Geoff, I know the feeling, the weather plays havoc with the thatching, after a blizzard I have difficulty recognising myself in the mirror…== Digitalis, agree with your comment re doom mongering.
On 26 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, overcast, NW’ly wind, brightening up by 9.30 and yet another blue sunny day with the obligate sea breeze keeping temps at a moderately warm rather than hot level, 22˚ max which fairly made me sweat in the sheltered garden, wind strengthening and cooling towards evening, clear sky all day bar a few wisps of cirrus, 11˚ at 10pm.
On 26 May 2018, Geoff wrote:
Funny you should say that, Gerry...After a very hard frost, the following morning I woke up to find I had a bald spot !!!
On 26 May 2018, Digitalis wrote:
We have been enjoying summer like temps in the Netherlands for weeks on end. In the southern part of Holland an unusual amount of rain fell, where I live it is a bit too dry. I totally agree with Rhys´s comment to adjust to the weather indications in terms of growing season. I also would wish the `Mini Ice Age´ blogs and websites would have much less of doom-prophetical fear mongering sense (I think Piers is doing great in that respect). Yes, life will be more demanding and requiring adaptations, and yes, humans can be very studpid in adhering to the myths they bought into. But they can also be incredibly resilient, resourceful and kind. It would be great if wisdom was shared here, and observations that would benefit everyone. BTW the cuckoo is back here too!
On 26 May 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Vegetation has just caught up with the times here and the House Martins finally returned last week. GFS charts predicting a long dry and warm spell for much of western Europe, Britain and Ireland.
On 25 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, sunny from the start and right until sunset, what was remarkable was the warm N’ly wind - mid Atlantic air circulating around the HP centred to the NW of Scotland, though that air did gradually get cooler as the day went on, max temp a balmy 21˚, it got quite windy by evening and, clouding over by 10pm, temp 10˚. The soil is warming nicely, I can tell nut just from seedling growth but also from the temperature of our borehole water, the 100-odd metres it has to travel through the warming earth make it much less cold. == Gerry, now worries, when it rains my hair grows back forward again :-)) I meant haar, of course, didn’t notice the sneaky spell corrector. In contrast to you, it’s amazingly dry here and no rain in sight, on Sunday it will be a fortnight since the last real rain, that IS unusual in view of the last 12 years of wet summers.
On 25 May 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Interesting comments from other parts of British Isles. Here in NW London, April and May have been unusually warm and May particularly dry. Two short heat waves, but the past fortnight has been mild nights of 10-14C and daytime maxima of 18-24C. I wonder what the spring overall will look like as it feels overall warmer than average after cold start.
Radish sown 15th April ready after 35 days, almost catching up the 1st April sowing. Lettuce, spring onion also harvested from mid month, turnips almost ready, shallots doing very well, dwarf beans well established, apple fruit set excellent.
No danger of starving here, key was waiting before sowing and planting out. I suspect true horticultural wisdom comes by aligning sowing dates not to a calendar but to natural signals each sowing season. That way, complaining about natural variability is less likely to induce crop failure.
On 25 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
😂😂😂
On 25 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
You must be an unusual person Paddy if your hair recedes due to the changing weather. Was it humid yesterday evening! It was raining on getting home but stopped by 8pm. After dark you could see the murk growing but surprisingly it was clear this morning although cloudy. Sun has come through in the City and it is 65F. Looks like there may be storms over the weekend but Wunderground is not showing a heatwave. Meanwhile Newfoundland has received a foot of snow which they admit is not unknown but they don't go on to say that given we are supposed to never see snow again in our overheated world, why has it snowed at all.
On 25 May 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub) wrote:
Progressively warmer since last post, a drop of rain over night one night, have been busy out with visitors so don't ask me which night 😊 Some gorgeous misty early early morning starts,19 deg today so far at midday beautiful day but high uv so back in with the tiny one for a while. Enjoy the fine weather folks 🌼
On 24 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, overcast & cold in the S’ly breeze, by 11 the hair receded and we had a sunny day with a max temp of 16˚ and layers of clothing came off, very contrasting weather we’ve been having this month. Plant growth is reasonably good, veggies in the garden are benefitting from a warming soil in spite of the often cold winds, though everything is late. 8˚ again by 10pm which is pretty chilly for a May evening.
On 24 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Saw swifts around the church steeple on Tuesday but yesterday I think they were martins judging by the silence. Arrived home just after the rain and with that rain smell in the air. Cloudy evening with at least 2 heavy downpours overnight - I was woken twice - but no thunder or lightning but a colleague in Epsom reported they did. Light rain to start and low cloud on the Downs but now sunny in town and 65F. Phone showing storm symbol.
On 23 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚Cat 7.30, overcast, light NE’ly breeze which gradually turned in to the SE during the day, the sun started to come out by 11 and we had a reasonably sunny part of the day with a max temp of 16˚ until around 5pm when clouds off the N Sea started moving in and we finished with a grey blanket and back down to 7˚ again by 10pm.
On 23 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Donned shorts and t-shirt, made a pot of tea and stepped outside to find it less warm than I thought. Cool wind. Noticeably cooler this morning and some low cloud over the North Downs. sunny now but only 62F at 2pm. Iceagenow has a piece on Ireland showing hawthorn a year ago in blossom and nothing yet this year. Wet ground preventing ploughing and grass not growing enough yet for a silage cut and suggesting that there might be only one cut this year and a fodder shortage.
On 23 May 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Winds picked up last night in my corner of SW Essex, so much so it blew our garden parasol flying over the fence panel and into the street! Cool and blustery again this morning with early low cloud soon burning off. Looks unbearably humid over the weekend (and onwards) with Low Pressure pumping up unstable, thundery air from the near continent while the north stays slightly cooler and sunny.
On 22 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast & intermittent slight drizzle in a strong N’ly breeze, that was the theme for the day, a bit like late March but with leaves on the trees. Max temp 11˚, down to 9˚ by 8.30pm, tomorrow looks like a repeat performance.
On 22 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Taking a stroll around the orchard there was a sound of distant thunder. It was to the west so not coming my way but on the way to the pub there were damp roads. Mr Quizmaster said they had thunder, lightning and pelting rain in Banstead. A team mate confirmed that Croydon had caught it as well. Must have come after I passed through on the train home - or I was still asleep. I did note more cloud around on the way home and mid-afternoon there was the lightest of rain showers on an otherwise warm afternoon. Paul Homewood, Jo Nova, Delingpole and WUWT all covering the sacking of Prof Peter Ridd by James Cook Uni for telling the truth that most Great Barrier Reef research is rubbish. Prof Ridd is raising money to fight the university.
On 21 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, foggy and feeling cold & clammy with a S’ly breeze. Clearing by 9.30 and leaving a bright sunny day, albeit with a cool wind that was very noticeable when doing sweaty work. Max temp 20˚ but dropping markedly when clouds moved in again by 7pm and the wind strengthened as it turned into the NW, 8˚ at 9.30pm. Tomorrow & Wed will apparently be grey and cold, certainly no general warming in the offing, Piers got the cold bang on. ==Russ, the absence of swallows in your location is of concern - have they been wiped out on their migration? We have all the usual suspects here but no greenfinches and very few gold finches eating the daisy seed in the lawn, waiting for the forget-me-not see to become available.
On 21 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Sat looking out over perfect Swallow habitat. Any Swallows? Nope, nor Swifts or Martins. Looks like a Swallow free summer this year.sob whimper! Lots of everything else except tits. Very few around. An occasional Blue Tit or Great Tit but haven't heard or seen Willow, Coal or Long Tailed. Not heard the tiny, peep peep peep call of the Goldcrest either. Perfect weather continuing with blue sky but a gentle chilly breeze to keep the heat down when hill walking.
On 21 May 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
A wet start to Sunday, drew the week and a half’s stay in North Aberdeenshire to a close. Generally a very pleasant spell of predominantly dry sunny weather with one really wet day. The wind direction making the difference between cool and pleasantly warm days.( mainly southerly or se affording the north coast the shelter)
On 20 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast, S’ly wind already going strong though not as blustery as yesterday, only occasional appearances of the sun, a few drops of rain, temps rising only towards mid afternoon to a max of 20˚, quieter end to the day with 12˚ at 10.30pm.
On 20 May 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Friday and Sat. lovely days Fri.the nicest sunshine and warmth wise after mist and chilly start, yesterday the breeze gradually came in making it feel chilly and clouds moved in giving rain and also it was a bit windy over night. Grey breezy and showery today. Cheers Paddy and agree as only 1 of 4 cucumber plants up and 2 kuri squash out of 6 and 2 courgettes up so may sow a few more this week. Tomato plants ready to pot up finally and surprisingly 8 good chilli seedlings :)
On 20 May 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wow amazing lightning activity on blitzortung app atm over Spain Gib France through to Germany ect over last 60 mins - 6.30pm
On 20 May 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
How quick things can change. Foggy this morning after the clear night and then lifting to low cloud such that you could hear the aeroplanes from Gatwick but not see them, but within an hour it was all clear and bright sunshine. From being still there is now a breeze. Yesterday was a nice day but during the afternoon there was a spell of strong easterly wind that disappeared as quickly as it had come. Looking at some of the new leaves I have seen what I think may be frost damage. The mornings have been chilly but the clue came from a chat at Friday's farmshop ale session when one of my chums said that he had seen frost on his car. Looking ahead, Wunderground had a wet BH weekend, but that was yesterday and now today it will be sunny. I hope we have our leader's forecast as it time to head to the track for the first time and some super moto racing.
On 20 May 2018, @piers_Corbyn wrote:
Great comms. Always nice to hear about our forecasts being useful, Paddy and anyone who mentions applications =+=+=+= NEWS apart from the Royal Wedding: OUR amazing RIGHT ROYAL DEALS - 67% OFF MOST SERVICES 12mth subs - ENDS ON MONDAY, SO HURRY DO IT TODAY SUNDAY 20th May GoGoGo! Full Forecast sub extension credits for overlaps and if you not buying today FIND SOMEONE WHO WILL! Thank you. Piers
On 19 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
(18.05.18) 4˚C overnight, 8˚ at 7.30, another bright and breezy day in this hot and cold week, max temp 20˚ but feeling pretty cool in the S - SE’ly wind if it wasn’t for moving/working, 10˚ by 9.30pm. == Thanks for the update on the weather girl, Maria :-) Yes, everything late and slow, paying attention to Piers made sure I didn’t start anything too early, esp sensitive things like cucumbers, courgettes are a bit hardier. == (19.05.18) 7˚C overnight, already 12˚ at 7.30, still for the first couple of hours of yet another sunny day, after that we had a strong S’ly wind blowing all day and taking the edge of the temperature which rose to a max of 23˚, it got cloudy by 6pm, the wind abated and it got rather cool, 11˚ at 9pm.
On 18 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A bit of site work this morning so a nice pleasant walk around part of the City. Chilly wind but warm in the sun. If it stays like this for the weekend it will be ideal for outdoor work. Wind still coming from the east. For the first time this year on my morning drive to a station there were no floods or even pools of water just waiting for more rain to flood the road.
On 18 May 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR INTERESTING COMMS ALL. =+=+= Notice this R4 period 15-19th is showing extreme events - especially hail and volcano-quakes across the world +=+=+=+ The current GREAT DEALS for 45d subs BI Eu Usa END on Monday 21st so get in there +=+=+= SLAT15a new forecasts and amendments will be loaded soon. ANYONE WHO HAS SUFFERED FROM DELAYED UPLOADS (eg some 5mth ahead) can ask for - and will get - extensions in respect of delays.
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