Comments from Piers
WeatherAction
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Recent Solar factors States: Important R5 Nov 24-28+-1d 
{R="Red solar-weather activity period": R5 (strongest)-R4...R1}
R4 (7-10 Nov) confirmed by big Geomagnetic storms, Aurora, Tropical storms +massive snowfalls above Meteo expectations - See @Piers_Corbyn twitter.
Note WeatherAction RedR4 and RedR5 periods ~double meteo precip.
Solar Factors RTQ (RedWeather, Tornado/thunder, Quake trials) monthly detail Forecast is now added at no charge to - WeatherAction amazing Nov+ALL-Winter-toFeb-NOW Forecasts BI, Usa, Eu; and to WeatherAction Hurricane-Typhoon forecasts.

Tropical storms Look! Solar-Lunar patterns!
The storm hit of Eire & UK on Oct 9-10-11 was a spot-on confirmation of WeatherAction's LongRange forecast and saw significant rain/floods and wind in North & West of Britain & Ireland as ex-Hurricanes #Lee/#Maria struck in WeatherAction Red, R4, periods Oct 8-10 + 11-14.
Ex-Hurricane #Ophelia hit on the exact 30th Anniversary of The #GreatStorm1987 - the night of 15/16th. NEXT we had #Brian and cold blast with SNOW in parts of BI & Europe are follwing confirming WeatherAction.
Ophelia has an important place in solar-lunar patterns of storms understood through WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique of LongRange Forecasting.



 is outdated in 24/7 - anti- anachronistic , disrupting business, transport,,+plants! END IT!Twitter @Piers_Corbyn POLL Result: Stop-Clock-Changing-keep-to-(Sundial time)-Gmt-etc easy win on 70%.

Piers Corbyn (14 Oct 2017) says:- "The Br-Ir storms around 9/10th and 15/16th Oct and The GreatStorm1987, and indeed The Tempest of Dec 6-7 Dec (modern Calender) = 25-26 Nov (Old cal) 1703 (which destroyed Portsmouth, drowned 8,000 sailors and destroyed 700 ships in The Pool Of London) are all from the same meteorological family. Their appearances follow predictable solar-lunar cycles and are totally nothing to do with CO2 despite the #FakeScience protestations and innuendo of weather charlatans, ignorant celebs and the #MSM. Storm intensities as they strike Ireland-Britain-Europe depend mainly on the level of our WeatherAction predictedable Red weather solar impact periods - which mean very dangerous storms are possible only in Red R5 or R4 periods. The anniversary storm of 15/16th appears to be just outside the R4 period 11-14th ALTHOUGH the timing of these periods is unsure to +/-1day.
This fact suggests, and we are 75% sure, the storm will be dangerous but somewhat LESS intense than warned by computer models and various media 1 or 2 days ahead and its track may shift a little Left of Meteo".
Hurricanes-Typhoons forecast on line now include the latest RTQ (RedWeather, Tornado/thunder and Quake(trial) warnings). Keep up-to-date on twitter @Piers_Corbyn and WeatherAction weather discussion blog.
 

Major Storms (Ex Hurr Lee) B+I AND USA Tornadoes 30th/Oct1 confirm WeatherAction forecasts 4wkAgo. It's in our RED R4 period Sep26-30+-1d


Special Hello to those who joined "The London Grill" with Piers Corbyn on 'Climate Change And All That' Oct 3 - at the Royal Overseas League, Park Place, Green Park, London, SW1.  It was a great event - lunch followed by Q+A - for all involved and participants thanked Piers for his excellent answers "You really changed my mind" many said. 

NEW! A WeatherAction Solar-Lunar Technique IMPORTANT new Advances (to SLAT 14a) are complete.  It led to production delays for which we apologise but update forecasts are loaded / imminent......

"IN the wild October night-time, when the wind raved round the land, And the Back-sea met the Front-sea, and our doors were blocked with sand......"
From The Night Of Trafalgar - Thomas Hardy 
Nelson and his crew were ready! Are You Ready for Wild Autumn & Winter - both sides of Atlantic!

 
Current (23 Sep) Comment (earlier comms below)  
A huge Earth-facing Corona hole lined up 23 Sept and an M6.1 new quake hit Mexico - reminiscent of the giant Japan Tsunami-M8.9-SuperQuake 11 March 2011 which was also accompanied by a massive Earth-Facing Coronal hole.
The fast solar wind from this event will also drive likely new hurricane formation in the coming 7 days as already heralded 3 weeks ago in Piers Corbyn's new Hurricanes+Typhoons formation forecasts (Subscribe now for service to November before price rises!). Hurricane Maria will likely take a slight rightward shift in track (relative to Meteo) at the same time and storms/thunder/hail/ tornadoes in Usa Br+Ir & Eu will get more intense. 
This M6.1 quake is largely an after effect of the huge M8 Mexico quake of 8 Sept caused by the largest solar flare (X9.3) for 11yrs on 6 Sept. More solar flares / active regions are expected to appear in the coming few days adding to the effects of the fast solar wind from this Coronal hole.
None of these events are anything to do with Co2 fake science which undermines true science advance.

Who's to blame for Irma? poll! Results after the final 376 votes of 4 options:
SolarFlares & Low Wind sheer top at ~67%
Donald Trump, Russia and CO2 neck and neck all around 11% 

Current Comment 11 Sep (corrected 08z) - It's 9/11 go with care! 
Irma finally hit Florida on course/a tad to right of Meteo (ensemble) track final Cuba-Florida run. This tad is not significant but maybe the low geomagnetic and particle activity of 10th (see plot on LHS Home Page, all the action was on 8th + early 9th!) helped wind reduction. However uncertainties involved are large so we dont know; nevertheless WeatherAction track record on 'EndGame' strength and track matters is good (see below). More on WeatherAction weather blog!
Meanwhile in Britain+Ireland (+Europe) the period 12-15th has started early, subsuming 9-11th original period. This mean our "this-summer" variant rules of solar influences in our SLAT (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) are ended, which is ok although we had thought they might last to mid Sept. 




Comments submitted - 434 Add your comment

On 18 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

No BEAST until next winter I'm afraid.
On 18 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Russ, I think the reality of ice ages is that climate zones move south, so places currently too hot and dry for crops may be the growing areas of an Ice Age. Deserts in the Middle East and north Africa may become growing areas, after all all the oil under the deserts tells us that once there were lush forests there... Human migration may occur from north to south, particularly in North America. Homo Sapiens, after all, started out in the Tropics and went walking north as times warmed up....
On 18 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

STEPHEN PARKER: some models do show a cool end to December, maybe even snow in Scotland for Xmas, but a warming in early January( eg GFS) but we know how fickle these can be, with Mobeeb going for a mild end. I have 3 working chimneys in my building--so have an alternative if required.
On 18 Dec 2017, stephen parker SUB wrote:

Late december, early Jan david. The chap from Norfolk will wish he had'nt wished for more snow and cold.
On 18 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Yes we are talking mini Ice age here not full blown ice age. Stephen when does your 8 week touted big freeze start?
On 18 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Uranium converted to caesium would be a beneficial fuel being the most electropositive metal. Siting huge solar grids in Africa would be a good move but shifting the energy around the world would be problematic. Converting solar electrical energy into radio frequency energy to transport it, then convert back to electrical energy we can use is already being developed.... >> http://www.solarenspace.com/solaren-space-solar/ssp-overview/#works <<..... I guess something good came from the HAARP technologies in the end. High efficiency battery's using graphene and caesium would be a great step forward. Caesium being easily produced from all that Uranium, allegedly used in the past in the nuclear - weapon and power generation - industries. Polytunnels are great in the short term but heavy snow would destroy them. Short term heavy snowfall will require pyramid shapes to shed snow or easy dismantling through the worst weather. We can do this. Say NO to another Stone Age!!.......Cold again!
On 18 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb week-ahead again giving two options for Xmas weekend--one mild and one cold--can't lose using that one or two. Still frozen slush nightmare up here
On 18 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

I think we may be jumping the shark with talk of underground farms... we will adapt like we always have, we have a lot of coal and gas in the uk, and wood is sustainable fuel. Just make sure your house has a chimney.......
On 17 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Countrywide Orange fog warning. Temp. Dropping 5 deg at 10.30pm could get near freezing later.
On 17 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

I often think when gardening it would be great to cover the veg plot in a huge polydome like the Eden project that way you would still get the beneficial insects, though still need sunshine, but then underground I guess you have the luxury of geothermal though that has its cons...
On 17 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, overcast & thawing but still extremely slippery on our farm, the packed snow/ice being very slow to clear in spite of a max temp of 5˚ and a strong SW-W-NW’ly wind all day and a few sunny spells after the morning’s rain. 3˚C at 10pm.
On 17 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

eastside: So you had a rough summer too. Seems nowhere is an escape from the coming cold. I believe we need underground farms using artificial light and heat, possibly using hydroponics too. We need to use our thinking skills to isolate food production from the climate. Its the only way we can survive. And I'm not just talking Little Ice Ages here and temporary measures. If the big one does start soon, then we aren't leaving much time to prepare. I also think that traditional foods are not necessarily the best way to survive a severe but temporary shortage. Wouldn't a supply of rice and water plus vitamin and mineral supplements be a more logical and simpler route? Cheap and easy to store. Solar cells replenishing a high capacity battery back up would boil enough water per day. I dare say the government would soon implement ration books in the first phases, but unlike a war situation, deep snow and iced up ports would make the supply of normal foods almost impossible.
On 17 Dec 2017, eastside wrote:

This should say a good deal about what we should expect. LOOK! I am glad it appeared on spaceweather, it should be a warning signal, NOT like the lunatic Macron telling everyone the climate is out of control & we are all gonna die like oven chickens! http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/15dec17/tsi.png I keep telling people, we are doing something suicidal with our (EU) energy policies. It's going to be COLD, maybe even Dalton style cold or even 1984 cold (-25>-30C in Normandie!) The whole damn show has been geared to telling people to accept less & less energy security/robustness at exactly the time when we will need it MOST. I hope heads will roll, as the downturn comes, - then suddenly there are outages & energy shortages in freezing winter conditions, (just like the cretin environment agency that sold the equipment then failed to drain the somerset levels-leading to massive floods!). The wake up call,- already we are getting a cold winter in France/Germany, p
On 17 Dec 2017, shaun wrote:

it's a solar low starting now and funnily enough like the winters 08/09, 09/10 and a few years after for some we had good snow we have already seen notable cold and snow. Weather is a supremly complex set of oscillations within oscillations, we may have a spell of mild weather but it will naturally oscillate again soon and we will get some snow, but just complaining about Norfolk does not represent a lack of cold/snow or winter for UK or Northern Hemisphere
On 17 Dec 2017, shaun wrote:

@Glenn what a huge over reaction to some very poor modeling systems, However much I am bias against the Met Office they admit them selves they can't forecast with any confidence two weeks or further ahead. Yet you are writing off three months of winter before its even started, yes that's right, winter has not even started, meteorlogical winter is just for convenience when it comes to doing maths for example, astronomical winter is 21st Dec, but places like where I am in Wales has already seen temps 10 degrees below average, 9 degrees below the coldest average of winter for here, instead of a jan/feb average low of zero we had -9 with -11 windchill and about a foot of snow in places with even better drifting causing major roads to be closed while we have had weeks of notably below average temps, well to be hones over a fortnight of jan/feb temps. No computer model can predict until the end of March, as for last few years we were in solar max, not the biggest max but a max it was
On 17 Dec 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

THANKS ALL FOR REPORTS + COMMS =+=+= GLENN Large scale world measures show significant cooling now - Greenland Ice, antarctic ice, satellite temperatures, total snow cover. The UK or Norfolk is a VERY VERY small sample of world and 2 weeks is not winter. =+=+= EAST SIDE, thanks for report and obs. WeatherAction Europe forecast was clear for most of last 4 weeks:- Cold N'ly weather in west Europe and contrasting mild for location flow from South Russia, East Eu and Baltic states.
On 17 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Yeah Andy same here we have at least 18 inches if not 2 foot of our snowmans bottom half left on the lawn, despite rain and soggy ground from snow and rain it remained cold and sunless...Still after a cold and snowy start to Dec. if today is the start of a few milder days into the beg. of xmas i'm sure the warm brigade will be like "Oh my god totes warmest month evah" ahahaha gotta laff!-) overcast with an increase in temp to 9deg. this morn. :)
On 17 Dec 2017, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:

Still quite a lot of snow that hasn't melted in these parts, which is amazing considering we have had rain on and off all week.
On 17 Dec 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:

David - That sums up what Robin Page wrote in the foreword of a book. The more technology has been used for forecasts the worse they have got. I recall a piece on TV showing how a BBC forecaster would assemble all the information and then make a judgement as to what to broadcast, and there were all trained meteorologists. Now they just seem to read a script. If the model doesn't work then your forecast is going to be wrong. And we know the global warming models don't work either. As for Glenn, you would think by now people here would know that winter in the UK is not defined by snow. If you think it is over I hope you have turned off your CH and got out the shorts and t-shirt. A contrast of this year to last year is the rainfall. The ground was quite firm last year but squidgy this year. More rain yesterday but starting bright with a frost today. Just 2 more blank days needed to bring up the 100 for spotless days on the sun in 2017.
On 17 Dec 2017, Glenn wrote:

Could winter now be over for another year? I appreciate that december has been snowy (for some). However here in Norfolk its been a let down. Last sunday should have been the day that we were due heavy snow but all we got was rain and at best a little bit of sleet which just made the ground wet. With milder weather coming to britain today we have now lost our chance for a snowy winter. By March 1st we will be able to say that has been the 5th mild winter in succession and another WRITE-OFF, more victory for mild winter fans/warmists! With it now being 5 years since the last proper snowfall here, II feel like giving up on the idea of ever seeing a proper winter again. I hope im wrong.
On 16 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, clear sky with a mere sliver of the moon rising in the SE, a few mm of new snow which at least makes it easier to walk on, mostly sunny day with a max temp of 1˚ and still a sharp NW’ly wind, clear starry evening with -2˚ at 9.30pm. MO saying lots of rain tomorrow morning and a max temp of 7˚. I do like winter but I won’t be sorry to see the snow disappear on this occasion. == Steve, amazing to hear you’ve still been cutting grass yesterday.
On 16 Dec 2017, eastside wrote:

"Ural for instance might have ice and snow right now but I'll bet my bottom dollar that they had far more sun and warmth than we did this summer." WRONG Summer 2017 was unending AWFUL for most of the bit of the northern hemisphere from Sweden to western Siberia. It was so bad in Russia, after some violent storms over Moscow early on..we all got to calling July & August "green winter". There were 2 warm weeks right at the end of Aug then some crazy warm days with strong southerly winds in Sept, but winter came very early with snow in early October. Since that time it's been unusually wet and generally warmer in Baltic states & SPB region, with v little snow. In fact it's been colder in France & Germany over the last 4 weeks than it has been in Russia, with forecast of such heavy snow on monday, they announced a speed reduction on the ICE from 300km/h to 200km/h MAX+20min late trains. North of Frankfurt there's serious snow in the mountains, with big avalanche warnings in
On 16 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron - have you noticed all the forecasters these days referencing models? " One model says this one model says that. So we're not sure" How about using your qualifications and experience to interpret the charts? You know doing what you get paid for!! Solar winds about to hit earth from coronal hole. so let's see if that will swing things back colder for next weekend and beyond
On 16 Dec 2017, Paul wrote:

Here in Lowestoft there has been snow on a couple of days where it has settled but most days with northerly winds has produced rain or sleet. As i remember from the past with the same weather patterns in the 1980s wold produce more snow. It used to be with a northerly rain in the morning but by the next day snow still with a northerly wind but now it is rain or sleet with a northerly wind and the next day the same. Only when the winds turn more northwesterkt and the air is coming of the land we get snow. Northerly winds are noticeable warmer now here on the coast when compared to the 1980s on average. We are in a more wavey jet stream era. A mini ice age may have started but its going to be quite a while before it can be called a mini ice age. The north pole has been consistently mild in winter for quite a while now. When a mini ice age does start proper i expect this to reverse.
On 16 Dec 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK subs wrote:

Russ remember this most of our ridiculous pricing is caused by our enemies across the Channel the Comunist EUSSR. We will see a big drop if we come out and if you convince the global warmist we can have Spanish weather here that would be great to, we’ll just a Michael take, Turned out nice again init.
On 16 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

By the way folks....it is a fallacy to assume that we Brits won any wars. The wars were fought and we participated in many of them, but there was only one set of winners....and that wasn't the 17 year old boys holding the guns........ Weather-wise, I'm sick of the cold and damp already and winter only just started. The Urals for instance might have ice and snow right now but I'll bet my bottom dollar that they had far more sun and warmth than we did this summer. It seemd to settle at around 16 - 20C about June and just stayed like that until September. Even the sunny days were cool. I remember just a single day when temperatures soared to around 28C and just one nights sleep lost due to the heat. I think that was sometime in July.......The written historical record is a load of misleading and contradictory nonsense, just like the Climate Change malarky going on now. Nice to see some truth being shown in the Netflix drama The Crown. A very different story if left to the BBC!!!
On 16 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

eastside: Everything is relative to the specific currency / location. You pay roughly £1.20 for a cappucino, where we pay more than double that, anywhere from £2.20 to £3.50. We pay between £1.17 - £1.27 per litre of petrol where you only pay about 54P a litre. You only pay the equivalent of 36p for a loaf of white bread. We pay anywhere from £1.20 for a standard white to £3.50 for a fresh crusty loaf. That's 274 Rub. You could buy 10 loaves of white bread for the price of one of our crusty loaves. You pay about the same as we do for cheese but cigarettes are unbelievably cheap for you. You pay around £1.50 for a pack of 20 while we are paying anywhere from £8 to £11 for a pack of 20. So roughly 7 times more expensive. For you a one way local bus fare is about 25p. For us its almost £2 or 8 times the cost. So you see, every day costs are hugely more expensive for us mere Brits! Everything is relative to the local currency for that specific location.
On 16 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

https://youtu.be/pMXxRcqmrkQ .... I was heading for 6 yrs old and have vivid memories of wet slushy feet in short childrens wellingtons, numb with cold and later hot-aches in front of a coal fire. ....... eastside: Yes there is a cure but the outcome of the cure is often worse than the illness...if you catch my drift.
On 16 Dec 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:

Frosty this morning with a brilliant blue sky, not very hard frost though, the grass is so green for this time of year not at all scorched as I have seen in the past, we are certainly not going to get a severe cold winter down here in the south coast again this year which is no bad thing, the winter of 1963 was a one off evidently. Temp as I type is 8 degree c
On 16 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb week-ahead of 16th going for two options for festive weekend; a colder one ( Norwegian MO also going for this as is GFS) or a much milder one with HP to the southeast and LP to northwest--can hardly lose eh? Whatever, there is absolutely no sign of a beast from the east.
On 16 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cold yesterday mostly dry though and a frost last night clearing early this morning only 2 deg at 9.30 a.m but I think cloud will prevent frost tonight. Next week met giving it dryer and mostly frost free. Looked at Piers Jan. Forecast, interesting month to be due child no. 4 👀 ....
On 15 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, thawing, though earlier on it was extremely slippy, rain having fallen on icy ground overnight. Sharp NW’ly wind which kept going all day. We had it all today: rain in the morning, sunshine in between, snow showers starting around 7pm, temp stayed at 2˚ until about 4pm, started going down towards 0˚ at 10pm. We like the cold but I have to say I’ll be happy when the thaw comes, going about on melted and packed refrozen snow is not a lot of fun, at least tonight’s snow allowed a bit more grip.
On 15 Dec 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:

Got the ride on mower out today and cut the grass, I had to snigger because when I was returning with a can of petrol for the mower what should pass me but the gritting lorry spreading grit in bright sunshine and 6deg. The lawns look great as I not only cut the grass but the mower sucks the leaves up to so nice green lawn without the leaves. So the 15/12/17 grass cutting south of England. Wearing just trousers and a jumper. Well I know the postmen are still showing off by wearing shorts all year but not me.
On 15 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Craig - there are never exact comparisons, but 1981 the snow came early and big to the Alps and this year the early November snow came but was less plentiful, however France, much of Switzerland and Western Austria are looking really snowy coming up to the Christmas periods. Yes 2010 widespread snow in the Uk but we here in NW London had relatively little - we were an isolated pocket which only got an inch or so, although it was very cold. Glencoe ski area looks as good as I have seen it this early, but next week it may all melt. Any Scots should go up tomorrow as it may be the best day for some time....
On 15 Dec 2017, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:

Quite a few stubborn areas of snow still not thawing in the Amersham/ Great Missenden area
On 15 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Quite an overnight thaw has occurred which was not mentioned on standard models. GFS still showing cold air in north-east Britain at the Xmas weekend with Atlantic fronts bumping up against it, suggesting a mild Xmas day but chances of snow at the weekend. CRAIG: I flagged up Dec1981 too as this Dec seems to be a lesser version with a cold first 3 weeks with a thaw over the Xmas period. So twill be interesting to see what happens this January.
On 14 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Rhys - you mentioned 1981,'tho I think 2010 had early Dec snow, although in Germany looks to be their most snow since 1981. === https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker?postId=post_201712141148053 === latest CET at 4°C, -0.9 below the average and the past few days around the bottom 10th percentile, having been near the top 10 last week. What will the jet bring us next?
On 14 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Snow lasted until Tuesday eve when the warm up came, although the odd snowman carcass remains as a minute pile. We had good snow cover for 2 days, falling snow on 3, and Frost every night, even last night though it was limited in the area. The cold of the past few days has now finished any leaves hanging on and a forsythia that had small yellow blooms has finally given up. Just before 8 tonight a frost has formed but temperatures have warmed up The midweek warm up was quite fleeting reaching 8°C for a brief period although some heavy squalls just as school was out yesterday after which it felt cold. Bar a sunny Tuesday it has been quite overcast on the whole, although nights mostly clear which has made fantastic meteor and star gazing of late. Overall I have to say I'm enjoying this winter, even with the prospect of a warm up next week. So different than the winters since 2013 and reminiscent of my youth.
On 14 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Max 5 - 6 deg. today feeling raw when the wind blew, a few showers some of hail not as much as yesterday, our snowman is still hanging in there :) 3 deg feeling much colder at 10pm
On 14 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-4˚C at 7.30, clear sky and although 6˚ lower than yesterday morning it felt much less raw on account of the dryness, reasonably sunny day with a max temp of 0˚ and no wind to speak of, still much ice around but the school bus managed to get up to the farm for our grandson, -3˚ at 9pm.
On 14 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

I notice that the BBC forecast on their website has not been updated since 12.38 hrs and the last week-ahead forecast by Philip Avery has been removed. GFS still tinkering about with a reduced eastie- beastie
On 14 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...cont... === UK Outlook for Friday 29 Dec 2017 to Friday 12 Jan 2018: Through the last days of December it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Temperatures will be near to or below average and snow is likely, at times, especially across northern parts of the country. Through the first half of January a gradual reduction in the frequency of Atlantic westerlies seems most likely, this will be coupled with an increase in the frequency of colder and drier periods, although confidence is low at this stage. Milder, wetter, and windier spells should become more short-lived during this period with the colder and drier spells of weather bringing an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow, wintry showers, and below-average temperatures. Updated: 15:29 on Thu 14 Dec 2017 GMT
On 14 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

MetO latest ==== Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017: In the run up to Christmas the UK should see temperatures return near to or above average for the time of year, with a north-south split developing by around the 21st Dec. In northern parts of the UK the weather is likely to be changeable with strong winds, rain or showers, at times; as well as drier, brighter interludes. Across the south of the UK it will be drier and more settled, although probably rather cloudy. Any rain will only be a brief interruption and any breaks in the cloud cover will give foggy or frosty overnight conditions. Around Christmas Eve the north-south split should begin to break down with unsettled, often windy, conditions developing thereafter, with any snow most likely across the north of the UK...cont...
On 14 Dec 2017, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:

Blustery rain overnight has filled the rivers and unlike last year where the garden stayed firm, it is squidgy this year from all the recent rain. Following my UHI experiences during the summer, I had cause to drive to Crawley from the countryside having scraped the ice off the car on return to the home station. Setting off back I looked at the in car thermometer and it read 3C. I was somewhat surprised and watched it on the way home as it made its way down to -1C. So that equated to a 4 degree difference over 8 miles. And of course Gatwick airport is a temp recording site. With the rain and the phone saying it was not freezing, it was a surprise to turn the wipers on and find it was ice on the windscreen. Cold wind today and bright. Rhys it would seem needs to read up on the law so he can understand that tax avoidance is perfectly legal and something everyone should do. Tax evasion is the one that is illegal.
On 14 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

major oops again GFS now going for very mild Xmas and the beast from the east is back with a vengeance from the 29th---eh!!??
On 14 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

more light snow ( 2cm) here this morning, just below freezing. Nice Xmas card effect.
On 14 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

Re the GFS it has a massive block to our E/NE developing in recent runs but there are several ways that can interact with us....easterlies, S Easterlies, Southerlies, trough held over UK etc so from very cold to pretty mild. I read it somewhere that there will be a major Scandinavian block in place come Xmas......now where did I see that....humph
On 14 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb have reinstated snow threat to Central Belt and MacBeeb now confirming it. Main Mobeeb week-ahead going for a mild Xmas week. GFS latest flip flop going for cold air running down central/eastern UK for the Xmas weekend with Atlantic fronts coming--chance of snow? Thereafter a very mild New Year weekend and the wee beastie from the east has now vanished.
On 14 Dec 2017, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:

Majority of snow now melted, 2 deg this morning
On 13 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Can see why now ive charged phone as fair bit of activity on blitzortung app..
On 13 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Big hail shower around 10pm and massive clap of thunder took out power to at least 3 towns that I know of, power back on now after only an hour so not bad going :)
On 13 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, overcast & damp, snow melting, no wind to speak of, max temp 3˚ by midday but thereafter starting to drop, short-lived thaw that leaves plenty of ice around the farm, fabulous opportunity to fall flat on one’s backside, as I did, -1˚ by 4pm, -2 by 9.30pm under a clear sky.
On 13 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cold today despite the rain melting most of the ice and snow many half melted or mostly melted snowmen to be seen, glad to see lots of fun had this week around the place ;) Windy cold showers some of hail & turning to snow settling as we left town in the midlands around 2pm ish and wet snow with a quick bit of thunder and lightning on the way home, 2 deg feeling like -3 now at 8.30pm and still windy out.
On 13 Dec 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

Latest GFS flip flop, suggesting an increased chance of snow over the Xmas period, with the possibility of a wee beastie from the east not long after
On 13 Dec 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

Mobeeb now backtracking on snow for Scottish central belt tomorrow and another flip flop from GFS put a wee swatch of colder air over Scotland/ Northern England on Xmas day. Icy hell in the village after freezing rain fell on frozen ground then slow thaw putting a layer of water on top.
On 12 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

Around 2˚C in Nairn this morning, -2˚ at home, sunny all the way to north of Aberdeen. A coloured parahelion followed us for quite some distance on our trip home. When we arrived it was -2˚, by 7pm it started raining and by 10pm we had 1˚ and the snow was melting, bizarre weather.
On 12 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

A 2nd yellow countrywide warning has just snuck up on Met.ie for snow ice during Wed./Thurs.
On 12 Dec 2017, michaelb wrote:

Wessex/Mercia borders 600'asl The thaw has started this afternoon ☹, temps around 38 ̊F, wind from the south and rain this evening. Regards m
On 12 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

-4 cold start everything frozen up, some pretty ice ferns on the outside window upstairs, temp didn't budge much above 3 deg. Until after midday when light rain came we started the thaw and reached 6 deg still some patches of snow ice about and the snowman is on a slow thaw. Yellow wind warning up for Galway Mayo Clare Cork Kerry & Limerick from midday tomorrow - 10pm Thursday night.
On 12 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Yes Ron I was thinking more inbetween Xmas and new Year for us to end up on the cold side of the jet. Funny how we all relate patterns to different Years. I can just vaguely remember 81. We are overdue a bitter Easterly with heavy snowfalls. The last winter that had this pattern brutally was 95/96. That kept switching from mild to Extreme cold around these parts from December through to Feb. Next winter Ron the Beast will definitely invade these shores.
On 12 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

DAVID(Yorkshire) Aye I see standard models, more especially GFS are on the curve for the 'traditional' Xmas mild followed by another cold blast at the turn of the year.This autumn-winter period reminds me a bit of 1981 when the first 3 weeks of December were cold and snowy followed by a mild spell Xmas week. We then went on to have a record cold spell mid January. Some flakes of snow falling here as I write.(1440hrs)
On 12 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Ron and David Your comments must be addressed to Westminster, not local councils as they have had swingeing cuts imposed upon them. All the London lobbyists pushing never ending tax cuts for corporates, HMRC not confiscating assets of tax avoiders, the Treasury refusing to allow corporate tax avoiders to remain here. Until those who demand everything for nothing are confronted, we will never have everything.... And for those who can afford it: invest in winter tyres like continentals do.....
On 12 Dec 2017, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:

A period of snow in London around lunchtime yesterday. Cleared away. Cold all day and hovering around freezing in the evening driving to Brighton. -2C on the car thermo on the way home. V icy on some roads this morning as they don't grit much. Re -east side: the problem is that snow is not there for long periods and investing in little used equipment is not a good use of funds. They certainly do panic early here and close things but if you read iceagenow you will see we are not alone in shutting things down. Regarding Heathrow, there is no spare capacity at this airport so when required to create space between flights they have to cancel. The Russian airports won't come close in that respect. And the DMI have finally admitted to the coldest summer on record this year. Hmm, strange in the warmest year evah! Or didn't they get the fiddle your records memo?
On 12 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

I wouldn't expect any milder spells to last too long Ron. Maybe up until Xmas from middle of next week but then cold air could easily return. Jet stream will still be all over the place I reckon.
On 12 Dec 2017, Andy wrote:

Eastside seems to get angry with the UK around this time every year, I think he reads our alarmist press headlines on line and concludes that we are all wimps. -7 in Oving Bucks last night with snow now frozen solid and minor roads very treacherous.
On 12 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Also when snow days only happen once or twice a year if that and life is short and childhood goes so fast, what if you don't want to keep push pushing out the door like a bleeding robot doing as your told. What if its your choice to take a day and enjoy every minute of the rare weather that comes your way with your kids instead of proving you can drive on an icy road and being so up tight they have to go, esp when schools can shut for teach training days at a minutes notice. I'd call the last couple of days with my kids special memories nothing pathetic about that.
On 12 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Yes, Eastside does have a valid point. Due to the lack of preparedness there has been downstream costs of tens of £millions, perhaps more than that. OK that doesn't happen every year, but it does several times a decade. If an equivalent amount was spent on proper preparation, then we wouldn't incur the costs ( and blighted lives) in the first place. Preparing only for the average leaves you wide open to the worst of the worst, whereas if you are prepared for the worst, dealing with the average comes easily.
On 12 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

DAVID (Yorkshire) Well the 'dwarf from the north' turned out to be more of an Orc, but there is still no sign of 'the beast from the east'. Nor is there likely to be this side of New Year. The Mobeeb underestimated the potential precipitation and Piers got it right. I've noticed the Mobeeb was underplaying the amount of snow likely with this front currently approaching from the west as it too bumps into some of the coldest air we've had this winter, but this morning the MacBeeb finally got round to increasing the likely wintry outcome from it and the' less cold' air succeeding it.
On 12 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Let's face it Eastside does have a point. If more roads were gritted it would help and airports should have no excuse as they do have equipment. Light snowfalls shouldn't cause chaos like they do. People should learn to adjust their driving to the road conditions.
On 12 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

east side - back in Urals you have cold and snow every winter, regular as clockwork. Here in Southern Uk, we get snow occasionally. It is totally uneconomic to maintain snow clearing machinery when it stands idle 99 days out of 100. Now if your Einsteinian mind were to produce snow clearing kit that could do useful jobs when there is no snow to clear.... I bet in Russia you do not spend billions preparing for monsoons.....
On 11 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Plus as an approx guide living in London is around 60% higher than costs to live in say Russia so wages like rent and food costs are relative to the country. Ireland is more expensive than the uk for utility bills food ect but wages are better so swings and roundabouts. I get what you are saying but the same reason you see so many sunburnt Brits and Irish abroad its what you get used to and yeah we could be better prepared and if we were living that lifestyle more than not we would prob deal better and if we were not constantly told snow was a thing of the past we might not get so freaking excited every time we see it :)
On 11 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Well Eastside only thing I can think of is maybe when we get more regular snow and cold we can swap out the car tyres for snow tyres or add chains, put on the fluffy hats and big coats and it will happen so often we will adjust and be even more skint from crapper crops that wages will decrease along with the food and we too will be as tough and well adjusted as you all are lol!-)
On 11 Dec 2017, eastside wrote:

A little comparison for laughs, same day! Back home in URAL,- temperature -22C. snow cover, and plenty of ice and snow in the streets... Average income 300 EURO per month, children go to school as normal, planes land on time as normal, trains run to time, cars, trams and buses run absolutely normally. Oxfordshire UK, after a few inches of snow, at least 183 schools closed, chaos on the roads, 1/4 of flights cancelled LHR, cars, buses advised to do only absolutely essential journeys...temp declared as BITTER cold, average income 1500 EURO per month. Britain is an absolute pathetic disgrace, with no guts, no idea how to manage at all. How on earth did this come to happen after fighting several major wars, storming normandy beaches followed by being dumbed down for decades, then brain washed into "climate change" crap? Any idea what to do about this stupid state of affairs?
On 11 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Dropped to -4 overnight lots of frozen snow remained all day although a partial melt with the small bit of sunshine we had what remained was very icy and slippery and still the garden and house roof white with it. Briefly touched 3 deg. School transport that services 2 schools didn't run and our school that shut is giving to midday to get in tomorrow for register and says only travel in if your happy to so, will see what the roads are like tomorrow. Orange low temp downgraded to yellow countrywide and hopefully looks like clearing with rain tomorrow afternoon. Mostly clear 0 deg feeling like -3 at 9pm
On 11 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-2°C at 7.30, less cold than expected after last night’s drop. Driving up to Nairn took us an hour longer than usual, mainly because we had to go through Aberdeen rather than the usual country roads, which were full of slush; we encountered some heavy snow showers through the Glens of Foudland, a notorious spot for wild weather but by the time we got to Elgin and Forres there was no snow and only a thin covering in Nairn, also known as the Scottish Riviera on account of the Gulf Stream influence, I believe. Apparently though, in Muir of Ord, not very far NW from here, they had -11°C yesterday. The further N we got, the more temps rose, 5°C in Nairn this afternoon.
On 11 Dec 2017, Carl 75d subscriber wrote:

Plenty of Snow in HP27 very disruptive but fun too and well Done Piers your R5 has certainly increased the snow about more than metO forecasts from just 12 hours out.Sleety bits this morning but brighter P.M.Severe cold expected tonight maybe -12c in Benson tonight over snow cover.Well done Piers that was top forecasting
On 11 Dec 2017, Sue (Dublin) wrote:

Well no snow on the east coast of ireland but bitterly cold, -3 defrosting the car this morning, we had heavy rain which then froze which made roads and footpaths lethal. The cold actually woke me Saturday night and Sunday night...under my 15 tog duvet. While I was feeling sorry for myself it made me think of the many homeless & elderly who live in fuel poverty, while we younger ones get ourselves excited about a fall of snow. Met Eireann have put out another Low temp warning for tonight.
On 11 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

DAVID(Yorkshire ) It got as far as what the London 'meeja' consider to be the far North!! Still fairly cool in the near to mid term with some equivocation from GFS on the Xmas mild and indeed perhaps the prospect of an Xmas night storm. There'll be a flip flop, no doubt.
On 11 Dec 2017, Davud ( Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Hi all - snow mainly missed us just a very light covering. I didn't expect it to get as far north as metoffice suggested. Fell to minus 5 last night though. Well that was temp at 5 this morning. Will the jet dig further south in the run up to Christmas??
On 11 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

The rain has arrived in NW London and the 4 inches of snow is rapidly disappearing. So an interesting meteorological event will have returned to normal within 48 hrs.
On 11 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Gerry have a look at the snow depths and the satellite here and you'll see whilst cold, the snow was meagre in a few places === https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8607-look-back-at-december-2010---the-coldest-in-100-years
On 11 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

From the BBC "Heavy snow has led to power cuts and disrupted air, rail and road travel in many parts of the UK. The deepest snow was in Sennybridge, near Brecon in Wales, where up to 30cm (12in) was recorded, while High Wycombe saw 17cm [6.5 inches], and the flurries also reached London and southern England." === High Wycombe not far from Berks. About as far south it was all rain. , .miN u
On 10 Dec 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

The coldness of a winter does not relate to the amount of snow but a lot of snow does make it more memorable. I believe the great snow of 1963 fell in a short space of time - it just never melted fro 3 months. I was not even one so memory is a but hazy. In those days you were put outside in your pram for some fresh air but it was too cold I was told. Craig, you say that 2010 missed some people but was that not the time when a beautiful satellite image of the UK was produced showing everywhere covered in snow? What delivers the coldest time for us is static high pressure with clear skies.
On 10 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-4˚C at 7.30, we haven’t had this low temperature for quite a number of years, clear moonlit sky early on and turning into a sunny winter’s day with a light NW’ly breeze and a max temp of -2˚, going down to -5˚ by 9.30pm.
On 10 Dec 2017, Andy wrote:

Still snowing here in Oving Buckinghamshire although fairly light now, snow depth at least 6" deep
On 10 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Intermittent clouds, last light flurries stopped early eve. Snow laying & freezing out but keeping warm with the fire and a happy dance due to school text to say school shut tomorrow because of the treacherous conditions, plus the kids get educated on the white snowy stuff at home again that their generation were told they would never see, sweet as :)
On 10 Dec 2017, linda haynes wrote:

Here in Brynmawr south wales we have more than a foot of snow and icicles hanging off front door....a white out......feels like 2010........
On 10 Dec 2017, Sou'wester (Cornish border, sub) wrote:

Ha Ha. If you snow hogs want to know where the gritters are, ask Plymouth City Council. They have sent theirs out for the last three nights - and no snow followed. They should have read Piers' forecast for sleet and rain Dec 7-10, "especially SW". It's rained on the 7th -9th, sometimes sleetily (is that a word?). Today has been dry and mostly sunny, but with a big wind chill factor. It's been blowing a hoolie, as they say, with lots of vegetation and branches fallen, but it wasn't a violent storm force 11 as per shipping forecast.
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

plenty of snow here in WD3.PLEASE dont lump us in with watford!
On 10 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Probably 2.5 inches in total today although as it was very wet snow & not quite cold enough, it melted on roads & pavements creating a very wet slushy mix. The earlier snow faded to a fine drizzle before stopping. After dark the drizzle started again & for a good hr it snowed again creating a thin layer. Perfect for building snow. Clouds now thinned & a bit of sky peaking out and a little very fine snow coming down. Frost appearing with sparkles on pavements and there's a crust on the snow. // Glenn snow and especially events like this can always be a bit hit and miss. E.g. Cambridge did ok today from what I've heard. Even the winters of 2009-10 didn't reach everyone. If we get a NE or E event I'm sure you'll do fine. As for the LIA some winters were very warm/wet and that's what we've had the past few winters - even in the depths of the Dickens winters of the maunder. Now as we approach solar minimum we are more likely to pop onto the cold side of the Jetstream :)
On 10 Dec 2017, Glenn wrote:

Here in Norfolk we have had no lying snow as promised. Its now 5 years (half a decade) since proper snow here. Why in a time of LIA is this happening and will it ever snow properly in Norfolk again?
On 10 Dec 2017, Bill S NE Wales wrote:

Here in NE Wales it has been snowy Friday and Saturday with plenty wet snow and soft hail in a fresh west to NWesterly, reminiscent of my days in the early 80sinnorth Aberdeenshire A quiet night last night , no wind, followed by light snow from about 0430 , heavier during early morning and again late this afternoonDepth about a measly 4” more today. Somehow reading Piers update, I wasn’t expecting a big fall like the March2013 for round here. I see the contrast in temperatures and wind today has been exceptional, and mist noticeable in the south over very short distances relatively speaking. Can’t remember when we last had this sort of contrast
On 10 Dec 2017, C View wrote:

Some excellent posts on realclimatescience.com today with particular relevance to the current UK weather picture. Reading these predictions of the the future made not that long ago are frankly hilarious.
On 10 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

About 3.5-4.0 inches of snow here in NW London by nightfall. Probably a one in ten year event around here, although considerably rarer in early December. It will be interesting to see the alpine snow totals recorded in parts of France, southern Switzerland, Northern and Western Italy and SW Austria the next few days. By no means record breaking, but quite significant predictions nonetheless. My sources are alpine in nature, hopefully reliable and not trying to get ski sign ups. The next few days will reveal all....
On 10 Dec 2017, Ruairí (East cost of Ireland) wrote:

No snow here just a few flurries. Plenty in the Mourne Mountains. Very cold and living in hope for a 2010 style freeze.
On 10 Dec 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

And in my next of the woods the rain has stopped and the strong winds died down. I went to get some stuff and there are lots of tree bits on the roads. A complete tree is down on the outskirts of East Grinstead. The windchill is fierce. My hands were cold in the just the time it took to stick 5 gallons of renewable energy in the form of diesel in the van - well, it must renew as they always have diesel there when I want it. About an hour ago there were a few flakes of snow in the air but it hasn't come this far SE...so far.
On 10 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Orange snow ice warning downgraded to yellow here in Laois and 10 other counties, orange low temp warning issued for all of Ireland for tonight, glad there has been at least some help given in the form of shelter and food for homeless peeps esp after another lost their life recently, as its just wrong leaving people out on the streets, esp. when we've had so many empty properties over the last recession. Also hope they grit the roads here if schools not closing as roads will be treacherous come morning, take it easy all. Still snowing at 3pm kids measured 4 & 1/2 inches in the deepest less used parts of the garden & had great weather fun today.
On 10 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

14- 22 hrs in Blair Atholl and current temperature is -7C--looks like a very cold morning to come.
On 10 Dec 2017, michaelb 30+45 day subs wrote:

Wessex/Mercia borders 600'asl. Light floaty snow still falling, maybe 2" depth in places, temp 32F, even 200' lower down towards Bristol where its usually a degree or two warmer. Regards m
On 10 Dec 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

Thanks Stephen, useful, you should have also mentioned WD3 is sort of Greater Watford (if that is a valid concept) / Rickmansworth possibly with rising social cleansing property values about to renamed Richmansworth. Meanwhile all keep the snow news coming. Craig M your comms especially noteworthy.
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Still snowing hard here in WD3. Going out in the 4x4 now for a bit of fun!
On 10 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

And finally a warning for tomorrow for most of the SE and South Central areas. The frost tomorrow night looks harsh under the snow fields too, I expect a warning there with slush freezing over. === Yellow warning details Ice Between 04:00 Mon 11th and 11:00 Mon 11th Ice is expected to form on some surfaces Sunday night and into Monday morning. Some injuries are possible from slips and falls on icy surfaces and there will probably be some icy patches on untreated roads and cycle paths. On Monday morning some snow may fall over parts of Kent, Sussex, Surrey and Hampshire. Some accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible above ~ 100 m but at lower levels no accumulations are expected, instead a mixture of rain and sleet is most likely. Some roads and railways are likely to be affected with longer and more difficult journeys
On 10 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Snow eased off for mid morning to snizzle which created a fresh coating on cars where the wet snow slid off measured an inch, however since mid day out is coming down heavy again with big fat flakes and another half inch already. Looking at radar we seem to be in a rain zone...my denier eyes are clearly deceiving me as this snow it's rotten and screaming. Berkshire also seems to be where the system is pivoting, so the snow now coming from the opposite direction as it comes back round. Lots of trouble on the roads and trains. The lack of a warning from MetO is nothing short of utter failure. Their simian high res models showed the snow further south on the PM runs yesterday (they said they had 'confidence' on the track according to the chief forecaster...yeah right). I kept checking their warnings and nothing till 2314PM. Who on earth would be paying attention then except weather enthusiasts?...
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Piers, here in rickmansworth at 12.40 am we have 4 inches, its super soft perfect for snowmen. !. its still snowing. Ron, must be toastie in front of that stove!
On 10 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

2 & 1/2 inches here gov 😛 the kids and I are measuring in most flat places of the garden, 3 at the more North East side of the house and some drifting up the banks there also. Nice clean snow thankfully as kids have took to snowballs at the top of me to avoid the belly, easy to make and fire back 😂 well I have done my bit now i'm going to leave kids out with our eldest and watch from indoors before I fall on my a## 😊 still v light snow and grey white sky at 12.33pm
On 10 Dec 2017, Christine Gaskill wrote:

We measured 6" of snow in our garden in Hemel Hempstead. Sledging, snowball fights and hot chocolate this morning!
On 10 Dec 2017, michaelb 30+45 day subs wrote:

Wessex/Mercia borders 600'asl @11:50 Rain after midnight, turning to snow earlier this morning. Current temp 32F, and1/2" of global warming settled so far and still falling. Regards m
On 10 Dec 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

Snow Depths London update. Further to Rhys (NW London) a better estimate (by say 10am) is 2 inches of settled snow across London. Temps hovering around freezing so it was hyper-soft - snowballs made with the lightest of compression - so actually if temperatures had been a bit lower say minus 2 C (ie snow not sticky) this snow would be equivalent to 3inches (of snow a bit below freezing rather than at freezing).
On 10 Dec 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

Citizen More SNOWZAT! Firstly in reports what happened to inches? It's much easier to estimate inches - one inch = one man's thumb width at widest part (my thumb anyhow). I say in solidarity with #Brexit forward with natural measures - inches and feet. +=+=+=+ With this Snow success please pass-on current offers and urge people to prepare for all winter and subscribe now! Thanks
On 10 Dec 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

SNOWZAT!!! ALL. As we warned our WeatherAction TopRed 'R5' period Dec7-10+-1d did intensify snow and push it further South in Britain (+Eu+Usa) because flow from north stronger. Despite Meteo suggesting the contrary from 12h/18h before there was extensive SETTLING snow in LONDON with about 1inch reported direct to WeatherAcction Office / my observations on ground (complete with first snowball of winter) at MillHill, Camden Town, London Bridge, Roehampton (ie lower level than Putney Heath). Estimates / MetO indications suggest that further south in Kingston-On-Thames there was little/no snow or it shorter-lived. It appears councils had done NO SALTING WHATSOEVER as far as can be seen and the heavy slush was treacherous in (eg) Camden Road with buses going at snails pace. I noticed when making snowballs how clean the snow looked and melted some in London Bridge and yes it is remarkably clear (and I drunk some) - unlike dirt present in past - presumably due to clean Arctic air.
On 10 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Just cleared driveway and car of 6cm snow in NW London, having fallen at 1cm/hr or more since dawn. Having been forecasting rain until yesterday, BBC now suggesting snow all day. Will probably melt Monday and Tuesday and definitely on Wednesday if not. Webcams at winterhighland.info show complete snow cover above 300m around Glencoe and Glen Nevis, with snow in the Nevis Range car park at close to sea level.
On 10 Dec 2017, Michael (Wakefield) wrote:

So, here in West Yorkshire no snow to speak of. Enjoy your snowy one day wonder southerners... I think our time will come in January when everyone goes back to work, typical. At least this winter is vastly different to last years, so far!
On 10 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Aye, a double digit frost here today, but with glorious winter sunshine lighting up the snow- covered hills. Looks like another cracker tonight. Glad of that multi-fuels stove I put in in 2010.
On 10 Dec 2017, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:

Just to say the met office orange warning is too far north. Here in Flitwick we have over four inches already and we are 30 miles south of the orange area. Luton 10 miles further south in the Chilterns is badly affected too
On 10 Dec 2017, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:

Just to say the met office orange warning is too far north. Here in Flitwick we have over four inches already and we are 30 miles south of the orange area. Luton 10 miles further south in the Chilterns is badly affected too
On 10 Dec 2017, M Lewis (75 day subs) wrote:

The Met Office website keeps crashing and is down. Piers might wish to ask his brother to raise this strategic matter at PM questions on Wednesday in Parliament.
On 10 Dec 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

Rain here overnight and currently at 1030am. Yesterday was sunshine and a crisp frost with temp crawling up from freezing during the morning. Temp has risen to 40F. It seems Texas and Mexico are the places for snow today, and a lot of it. Other parts of the US getting a good covering as well.
On 10 Dec 2017, Ron Greer( subs) wrote:

JOHNSON: It's not far from you today, but as you might see from the latest GFS flip-flop that projection for Xmas has been stood on its head with a mild balmy spell from the 18th--expect further changes and flipm flops from other standard models. DAVID( Yorkshire) well how did it turn out in your area? Looks as if the snow was just a bit south of you? Mobeeb not too bad this time apart from northward progress of front.
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

9.30 am , we have 3'' ( 75mm to you whippersnappers ) its still snowing but lighter than earlier. Met office web site is down, and on TV they are chopping and changing, but we're supposed to have it till lunchtime. If we do, 100mm is likely.
On 10 Dec 2017, M Lewis (75 day subs) wrote:

I bet Waitrose are well chuffed with their Christmas Advert on TV. Well done Piers!
On 10 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Rain when went to bed at midnight, still raining at 1 a.m 2.30 a.m and 3.30. One advantage of my weird body clock in training was by just after 4 a.m I noticed big fat snowflakes falling. Knew it had settled when I woke up at 8 a.m to the buzz of excited children, like christmas morning here :) Around 5-6 cms outside sticking well and still snowing atm. Hats off to chief forecaster 🎓 Top skilled forecasting Piers! well done from the snowy midlands of Ireland 😉
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Still heavy snow here in rickmansworth, like piers said yesterday in his comment, that the snow would be farther south than standard models predicted.
On 10 Dec 2017, Andy wrote:

Heavy snow Oving Buckinghamshire already 5cm deep
On 10 Dec 2017, Sou'wester(Cornish border, sub) wrote:

Was awakened at 04:30 AM by wheelie bins being blown over all down the street. Shipping forecast predicts Violent Storm Force 11 for sea area Plymouth and coastal waters from Lyme Regis to Lands End.. Too damp. salty, and windy for snow to stick here yet, but we had a few quick flurries a few days ago. Due to go to a rural part of South Devon in a sheltered valley this afternoon, down some narrow lanes. Glad I will not be the driver I concur about Piers' forecast - totally reliable for December so far.
On 10 Dec 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

8.10am big fat snowflakes descending on NW London, about 1cm coverage so far. Unless my memory is faulty, this is the first snowfall before December 15th in these parts since 1981.
On 10 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Met Office 0 Piers 1. Around midnight last night (what use is that to anyone? I don't think they have even gritted the main roads as a result) the yellow warning zone shifted quite substantially south so it now covers London, Farnborough, Bath and Bristol. === "A spell of heavy snow is possible over parts of England and Wales during Sunday. The snow could lead to road, rail and air travel delays, with the potential for vehicles to become stranded or public transport to be cancelled. Rural communities with limited access routes could become cut off." === started off snowing lightly here after 2am, small and granular, and did settle on cars and at side of road before temps rose c. 3.30 and it turned back to light rain as dew points headed above freezing as did the wet bulb. This went down again at 6am and at 7.30 it's snowing heavily with big fat juicy flakes and settling fast. Absolutely amazing job Piers.
On 10 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Snowing and settling here in Rickmansworth 7am
On 09 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, around 3.5 inches of nevertheless fairly wet snow lying, NW’ly breeze with only few clouds in the sky, a sunny cold day, trees looking beautiful in the snow with their tracery of twigs, temps actually going down as the day progressed, ending with -3˚ at 9.30pm. We’re due to drive up to Nairn on Monday, calling a friend in Forres I found out that they have no snow there at all, so it’ll hopefully not be the slow trek we anticipated.
On 09 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

JOHNSON if you run through the last GFS projection, you'll see that there's a chance of a white Xmas along the south of England, BUT remember GFS is not as constant as Piers.
On 09 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

GFS flip flopping again, with the very last part of the current run leaving us off at the tantalising prospect of a white Xmas, at least in northern Britain. Can't seem to make its mind up over the position of a HP in northern Europe and other models over a HP over Greenland/ Iceland. DAVID(Yorkshire) will the snow not get to your area or not and the Mobeeb model be right or wrong? We'll know by tomorrow evening. They are now backtracking on snow on the northern of the next Low tracking up the Channel. Still getting a mix of light snow showers and bright sunshine here. Quite a nice winter scene.
On 09 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

JOHNSON: you might see some Sun/Mon and perhaps the following weekend as well ( if you believe GFS) So far this month Piers has been pretty much on the ball.
On 08 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, very little snow lying to begin with, strong N’ly wind off the bat, quite a few snow showers through the morning with sunshine in between, dry interlude for most of the afternoon but by evening the heavens opened and the white stuff came shovelling down until we had about 2.5 inches lying, be interesting to see how much we’ll have in the morning. 0˚ all day long, so the snow is rather wet.
On 08 Dec 2017, Johnson wrote:

As the days continue I'm sort of losing hope for any southern counties getting any decent accumulations thoughts on the far south above the Isle of Wight?
On 08 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 day subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border @ 20:40 clear skies, light winds, 32F Regards,m
On 08 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

STEVE DEVINE: Aye flip-flopping is standard GFS stuff. It's now projecting an easterly cool flow around 22nd December with a HP over southern Scandinavia. What are the chances that this will turn into a classic block?
On 08 Dec 2017, Steve Devine wrote:

GFS model has flip-flopped on the 0z, 6z and 12z regarding the track of the storm then secondary low on Sunday morning then Monday morning. Latest track has Sliding Low bringing whiteout conditions across the Midlands on Sunday, turning wintry in SE Sunday evening while decaying then secondary low brings blizzards to SE England on Monday afternoon. Can't see it myself. The Arpege model progs Monday's storm to go south into N France and miss the UK completely. I just wish Sunday's storm would head further south and give Londoners/SE England some decent accumulations. Am hoping Piers' comments regarding more southerly tracking LP systems actually happens!
On 08 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Noticed Met.ie have upgraded Laois to an Orange snow/ice warning for Sat. Night into Sunday, thats 17 counties on Orange now with upto 3 inches possible they say. Noticed also I think that baby has flipped from breech to head down and dropped lower in the last few days, 4-6 weeks to go hope it dosen't get impatient and want to be born in the snow like its mum!-) 😨
On 08 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

CRAOGM35O & DAVID (Yorkshire) I noted on the BBC site that the amber warning included the North York moors, so they are now guessing that the front is coming further north than previously thought.
On 08 Dec 2017, Gerry, 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:

The gloom cleared during yesterday afternoon. At lights out my phone said it was still 41f so not expecting a frost but come morning the phone said 36f which is usually ice on windscreen. Looking out there was a light frost and only a small amount on the car. Sunny but a keen wind making cold. See what the weekend brings. Not Alaskan weather I suspect where it has been snowing at 10 - yes TEN - inches an hour. And snow in Texas has taken out powerlines. I thought snow was supposed to be consigned to christmas cards and paintings.
On 08 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

covering of snow ( about 1 cm) with moderately frequent snow showers stating at 0200hrs this morning. GFS showing first hints of an easterly at the end of their forecast period and backtracking a bit on the Xmas mild period. Best taken with a shovel of road salt. Very good call this week , Piers.
On 08 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Amber warning out for Sunday as far south as Oxford - Not far from me here at all but just sleet/train forecast so far. Further south we are under a yellow warning for wind, but the track may adjust south a bit. === "Between 04:00 Sun 10th and 18:00 Sun 10th A spell of heavy snow is likely over parts of Wales, the Midlands and parts of Northern England on Sunday. Road, rail and air travel delays are likely, as well as stranding of vehicles and public transport cancellations. There is a good chance that some rural communities could become cut off.=== As Piers states on the homepage === " WeatherAction Action warnings for more snow, further south Br+Ir than standard Meteo in this 'TopRed-R5' Weather period Dec7-10+-1d are being confirmed. See @Piers_Corbyn, twitter feed. Now more than ever you need to subscribe to WeatherAction ALL-Winter-NOW forecasts while still 50%OFF or get amazing UpTo 90%OFF 12month subs before deals end! "
On 08 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:

Light dusting of snow all over outside, pretty :) still hanging around despite blue sky and sunshine, 3 deg. at midday. Well forecasted Piers ;)
On 08 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 day subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl @11:31 Very light snow fall early this morning after a clear night. Dry and sunny, then increasing cloud, and a recent light snow flurry which is still falling now though not sufficient to settle. Regards, m
On 08 Dec 2017, DaveT wrote:

South Yorkshire, 5:45am no snow, 6:30am thin covering of snow and snowing gently., 7:15am the snow has stopped and the sky is clear.
On 07 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:

Went outside for one more look before bed and it is bitter windy and snowing now at 11 pm ❄
On 07 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

It seemed to get milder again last night for a short time. Some really heavy showers accompanied by wind around 2-3 a.m I heard whilst awake with insomnia, seemed to ease off by 7 a.m then the next few hours a blur while I caught up on sleep. Bit blustery when I went shopping at 11.30 a.m some glimpses of sun but temp cooler around 6/7 deg. A few cold showers this afternoon dropping temp quite fast around 1 deg. feeling like -5 out there at 9.30pm. Upgrade to Orange snow ice warning further N & W yellow for us in Laois.
On 07 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl @22:00 clear skies temp 36F light winds. regards, m
On 07 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

5˚ at 7.30, moonlit start earlier on, and RON: I got my 11˚ overnight, according to the max/min thermometer; bearing in mind that we’re on top of a 160m hill where it’s always a degree or two cooler, that is remarkable but not untypical. Stiff W’ly wind growing in strength as the day went on, pretty wild at times with gale force gusts but abating towards evening, max temp 6˚ around midday, Ron, but going down quickly from that, especially after the light shower we had in the afternoon. Partly cloudy by 9pm, 2˚. Looking at the MO forecast, not sure whether we’re going to get a lot of snow tomorrow, the action seems to be further north and west.
On 07 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Yes Ron clueless despite numerous past events like this. Not be much at all down South is my take rain/snow as per what myself and Craig M predicted about this winter pattern. #dwarf from the North. Good Work Piers for R5 period though and this cold blast.
On 07 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

PADDY: so what was the actual temperature in Aberdeen at noon then? DAVID(Yorkshire) Mobeeb all over the place with this front coming in from the west early next week, especially in regard to how far north it will come with the snow on the front edge. Even the Scottish MacBeeb pondered the ?. Oh dearie me.
On 07 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Brace yourself Ron could be nasty up there. Track of low on fax charts means Yorkshire might get some snowciver Sunday however I remain sceptical at this point.
On 07 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Wet snow, now falling here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire with strong winds at 1240 hrs.
On 07 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Wet snow, now falling here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire with strong winds at 1240 hrs.
On 07 Dec 2017, Gerry, 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:

Paddy - your efforts at scientific research are much appreciated although I think good luck with getting your good lady wife to stand outside and get covered in snow. Windy overnight and still blustery this morning. Light rain in the wind. Not cold, just damp and dull. The sort of weather of many a Christmas in fact.
On 07 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

PADDY: well, that's standard models for you. Quite windy here, but nothing exceptional and still quite mild with no snow on the 1100 metre hill I can see from my window. The models are still predicting a classically mild Xmas week. DAVID (Yorkshire) 0800 Mobeeb report still postulating snow on the Atlantic front coming in early next week that might get up as far as between Hull and Newcastle.
On 06 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

7˚C at 7.30, damp from overnight rain, cloudy all day with a strengthening SW’ly wind, some light rain towards midday and again by late evening, temps gradually rising to 9˚ and still there at 9.30pm. Thinning trees in our forest was quite sweaty work, it was so mild. RON: I was only repeating what the MO foot painters put out on Monday, tonight they have scaled back tomorrow’s temps from 11˚ at midnight to 5˚ by lunchtime and 1˚ by 11pm, and they have upgraded the wind warning to amber, though their map shows us to be at the southern edge of the amber area, so we’ll see. In any case, our tunnels are pretty well protected from the SW-NW by the trees we planted 20 years ago, and after having lost our big tunnel to weight of snow in the 10/11 winter, the replacement is much strengthened with various braces and hardly moves in big winds, but one never really know, do one? As Fats Waller used to say.
On 06 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

DAVID (Yorkshire ) BBC forecast on their website at 1807 hrs, Wed suggests strong likelihood of snow in Yorkshire as another Atlantic front approaches into the cold air early next week. Will be interesting to see what actually transpires.
On 06 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Fantastic pink orange sky this morning clouding up and wind and rain has begun reached 11 deg quite mildish for a time but dropping in temp already this eve. feeling more like 6deg. Yellow snow warning up again 😊 Ron its just they like talking out of (how do you say it?) their bahookies? 😂
On 06 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 day subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl around 46-48F today o/cast and westerly winds starting to pick up since this afternoon. Regards m
On 06 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

There's a special video clip on the BBC Weather site about the likely impacts of a La Nina on winter in Britain. I have some difficulty engaging with this because I thought man made CO2 had overwhelmed all this natural stuff and in any case it all melted in 2013. OR is it a prelude to some kind of volte face over reality?
On 06 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

PADDY: the forecast with the BBC main lunch time bulletin showed a temperature at 1500 hrs in Aberdeen tomorrow as 3C, whilst the immediately following Scottish bulletin showed 8C--should we get Piers to hold the 'book' on this!? Are you still going for 11C?
On 06 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron when snow is forecast well ahead by BBC it normally isn't significant around here. when it is forecast to miss us or be light that's when you have to worry. How many times over the years have fronts been forecasted hit cold air and give widespread snowfall and then make hardly any inroads into the UK?? Surely the professionals are considering that could happen given cold dense air may be in place by Sunday. This applies to England especially.
On 06 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Well if no one has noticed a rapid decline in bramble health this autumn, I suppose it must be local to us, because the brambles out in the sheltered forest still think its July, full of healthy leaves. ...... The amount of deep cold affecting several regions across the northern hemisphere, after a cool and cloudy UK summer, I'm expecting a long cold winter. The amount of snow falling across many of these regions may mean less snow for us overall, so I'll put my money on ice, and lots of it. We had a fairly long cold winter around 8 to 10 years ago with many days below freezing, then bits of drizzly rain whipping across overnight making the already icy conditions even worse. Not seen any scary stories about Siberia yet but their temps have been hitting minus 44C allegedly. Blizzards and ice across the Dakotas and not many sunspots showing up. You can tell how cold it is across Greenland and Iceland by how cold our northerly winds are. Yesterday, NW'erly, bitterly cold on the moors.
On 06 Dec 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID ( Yorkshire) looks like plenty of opportunity within all the standard models over the next week or so for significant snowfall well down into England as mild Atlantic air interacts with cold polar maritime air. PADDY: quite a bit of fun to be had comparing the various TV forecasts and the Met Office, even just a few minutes apart. Are you ready for the 80 mph winds tomorrow!?
On 05 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Mostly overcast with light drizzle here n there the last 2 days around 9/10 deg Yellow wind warnings up for some counties ahead of storm and lots of enjoy the mild while it lasts as cold and snow on the way headlines :)
On 05 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

PADDY. The Grampian TV forecast for Thurs. was for 9 over Aberdeen and just a few minutes later on BBC it was 6 and on the BBC week-ahead this evening it was for 5, all in the same day. In this last, the week ahead and beyond looked quite snow -rich especially in the north.
On 05 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

4˚ at 7.30, overcast and still but SW’ly breeze later with occasional strong gusts stripping man remaining autumn leaves from trees in a spectacular dance. Temps slowly creeping up during the day to 7˚ by 9.30pm, passing shower around 5pm, otherwise a dry day. MO now giving us 3 days of yellow warnings Thu - Sat, first for wind, then for snow, still saying 9˚ on Thursday. ==Me and my wife are getting quite a run for our money it seems :-), I actually picked her up today, as I said I would, and according to Piers we should have been getting snow today but the show has been postponed slightly, so Gerry, I’ll likely tell you on Friday whether she is heavier when covered in snow, if she will gracefully consent to standing outside in the blizzard long enough :-) == RON, I look at the MO website, the same that Craig quotes below.
On 05 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

Mobeeb will ALWAYS try and go mild and keep a London dry to fit AGW....they are a joke really
On 05 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

David....”yes plenty of places will get plenty, with renewed shot Sunday to Monday. Forget Ditton and the models... they will change with big solar hit over coming days
On 05 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Recommended reading by Liam Dutton === "Predicting snow in the UK is difficult and weather computer models rarely get it right more than a few days ahead. In some cases, they still get it wrong the day before it happens! If you ask any weather forecaster who works in the UK, they will tell you that it can be very challenging to forecast snow here. The conditions are often marginal, which means that, sometimes, predictions can go wrong...As an example, once I left work after a night shift at BBC Television Centre in Shepherd’s Bush and it was raining outside. By the time I had reached Ealing – just five miles further west into the suburbs, it was snowing heavily, with a covering of snow on the ground. I phoned work to let them know that it was snowing, and they said that it was still raining in Shepherds Bush! === https://www.channel4.com/news/by/liam-dutton/blogs/why-you-shouldnt-believe-a-uk-snow-forecast-more-than-three-days-ahead
On 05 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...cont.. "Chief Forecaster's assessment, During winter weather which brings snow showers, it is not uncommon for snow amounts to vary considerably across short distances. On Friday and Saturday, the snow showers could lead to snow accumulations which vary markedly across the warning area" === models are all over the place & there is a high degree of uncertainty re: storm Caroline's track. As this is coming into an active R period (current KP5 geostorm from a coronal hole stream with increased solar wind+protons) this means "more intense than standard Meteo expects." It reminds me of times when they predicted rain & we got snow, it could go the other way of course. This looks to be a potent arctic maritime blast (ensembles are pretty much down to -10°C 850hpa for London!). I think we are seeing the theme of this winter showing itself & this is not the last polar blast by any means. Good luck for snow but stay safe & SUBSCRIBE to stay ahead.
On 05 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

What's the latest then on the models Ron,Fred? Is it still all systems snow for later this week?
On 05 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Yellow warning out for west mids north. "Between 00:05 Fri 8th and 18:00 Sat 9th Snow showers are expected to become increasingly frequent over northern Scotland late on Thursday and are expected across many other parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and western England on Friday. 2-5 cm of snow is likely for some, with 10-20 cm possible over high ground, mainly Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Icy surfaces are also likely to be an additional hazard, especially overnight. Strong northwest winds may cause drifting of the snow in places with blizzard conditions possible at times across northern Scotland.he heaviest and most frequent of the snow showers will progressively become confined to northeast Scotland during Saturday. Some roads and railways likely to be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and for train services. Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths. Some injuries from slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces.
On 05 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...cont...UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 3 Jan 2018: A slow-moving and blocked weather pattern is likely to dominate for the rest of December and into the early part of January. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. There remains some uncertainty in regards to which pattern will be most dominant during this period. Overall temperatures will probably be below average, but with some milder spells. Updated: 14:18 on Tue 5 Dec 2017 GMT
On 05 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Latest from the MetO === UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 19 Dec 2017: A frontal band is likely to move east across the UK on Sunday, which will bring a mixture of rain, sleet and snow in places, with central and northern areas most at risk. Staying unsettled through next week, with further wintry showers, or occasionally longer spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially across northern and western parts of the UK, with drier and brighter weather likely in the southeast. However, frontal systems moving in off the Atlantic are more likely to bring rain in the south, with the greatest risk of snow across northern parts. Generally cold, with overnight frost, perhaps severe in the north, and perhaps some brief milder interludes, mainly in the south. The cold weather may well affect most places through mid-December....cont...
On 05 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Apparently 'The Sun' is predicting a beast from the east with temps down to -16C. GFS now going for a warm run up to Xmas from the 19th. Suddenly it's Storm Caroline now. Is Paddy going to get a warm snow-free Thursday in Aberdeen to pick up his wife?
On 05 Dec 2017, Gerry, 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:

Dull, gloomy, damp, not that cold, quite calm. Nothing unusual for December. As regards any snow, it wouldn't take much to move the boundary north or south. Paddy - when your wife is covered in snow is she heavier to pick up?
On 05 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 day subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl @midday temp 42F, low o/cast light westerly winds occasional light drizzle. 30 day forecast just arrived - thanks Piers. Looks disappointing on the snow front from the 10th onwards for the south. Regards, M
On 04 Dec 2017, michaelb (30+45 day Subs) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600' asl. @23:30 Temp 42F nil wind at ground level, uppers are northerly, thin cloud cover.
On 04 Dec 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

PADDY: just checked Norwegian MO forecast which does back up the 11 C figure early in the day and also predicting west. southwest winds!!
On 04 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

PADDY: Mobeeb week-ahead at 2300 hrs predicting 4-6 degrees on Thursday in Aberdeen area, with gales and frequent snow showers. What forecast are you looking at?
On 04 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, moonlit start with a fresh W’ly breeze, quite a sunny morning but a bit cloudier in the afternoon, max temp 9˚, down to 5˚ by 9.30pm. == RON, this will be interesting because MO is actually predicting 11˚ on Thursday an only a light snow shower on Friday. So far, the expected cold hasn’t happened, fine by me as my wife will be flying back from France tomorrow, easier to pick her up when there’s no snow :-)
On 04 Dec 2017, michael (45+30 day sub) wrote:

Wessex/Mercia border 600' asl. Milder last few days, with temps in mid to high 40'sF. Thin overcast today and yesterday. Local forecast for much colder temps towards the week-end. Embarrassed mention of a possibility of the 'S' word from bbc wilts right at the end of the announcement. Regards, M
On 04 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Quoting models more than four days out, really is a leap of faith, yet at gavs weather he can talk about it for nearly an hour at a time, and each model different lol.
On 04 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

It was around 6 degrees at midday today but felt colder than that. Thursday is coming into the more reliable timeframe now and looks an unsettled day followed by a wintry blast up north for Friday/Saturday. No point looking past that for now and even that could change.
On 04 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Gerry: I wasn't thinking so much about climatologists but the super-rich committee who spend a lot of time trying to pervert public thinking. Someone at the top of the ladder has enough information beit from ice cores, pyramid burial sites, ancient astronomy logs, mathematicians, climatologists to know, with very little margin for error. Its the only way I can see for all the desperate measures we see being put in place and the mad rush for global control. I feel they are expecting something pretty awful and a full blown ice age would fit the bill. Maybe it'll be warm and sunny with lots of fluffy bunnies for the next thousand years but if we look back at the last thousand, the amount of blood and carnage, from burning witches to broadswords, the future had better not be so bleak, otherwise what's the point in looking forward to it? If an ice age really is looming then optimism is extremely difficult.....but someone knows!
On 04 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017: There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is likely at times especially in more northern and central areas. Updated: 03:03 on Mon 4 Dec 2017
On 04 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

And the latest MetO update === UK Outlook for Friday 8 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017: The UK will be subject to a cold arctic airflow by Friday, bringing plenty of sunny spells but also some hail and snow showers. Any wintry showers will be most likely over northern facing hills in Scotland, Wales and the southwest, but at times becoming widespread. Strong winds will affect all regions, with gales in exposed coasts in the north; feeling very cold in the wind. We will also see a widespread increase in overnight frost and ice. This cold and windy weather is likely to stay in place for a time, perhaps with some brief milder interludes in the south, with frontal systems bringing a mix of rain sleet and snow. There are signs that slower-moving, blocked weather patterns will return with more settled but still cold weather dominating.. cont...
On 04 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

PADDY. certainly standard models predicting fairly mild and dry Mon-Tues. but wind, gales and heavy rain coming in by Wed, followed by an Arctic outbreak, so your local Mobeeb forecast might be a wee bit optimistic. Piers' 1 to 3-Dec forecast ( now past) seems to have anticipated this outbreak. Will be fascinating to see how the rest of the month's goes.
On 03 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Milder than of late with max 9 deg mostly cloudy all day & high humidity, 6deg now at 10.30pm
On 03 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, drying up in a W’ly breeze, cloudy but quite bright with the sun breaking through, getting markedly cooler once the sun was hindered by the clouds moving in, down to 5˚ and still that at 9.30pm. Drier & warmer for the coming week, according to MO, we’ll see.
On 03 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Edit - mild per say.
On 03 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Thanks Fred - just to be clear I have stated borderline rain/snow events for the South with more snow up North. So I didn't say my per say. I will now take a look at the forecast. Thanks piers
On 03 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Now have fulll December forecast as promised. Interesting indeed.
On 03 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

David I don’t rely on the models but when they start jumping at what Piers forecasts then I do take note. That they did and there is more to come for sure. Anyone who looks at solar And lunar cycles etc to look ahead has my vote. Lets put it more like I hope you are wrong this winter....I don’t see a mild one....but no major freeze like Feb 86 etc either
On 03 Dec 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

Russ - as far as global warming goes, if you step outside the consensus then you can find your grant money dries up, you may be hounded from your job and your life may be threatened. Good reasons for toeing the line. However, there is another more innocent explanation in that climate covers a wide range of expertise and because many still believe science is honest, they believe in what those in another branch say even though they may have an issue in their own sphere. There is also a naive belief that the IPCC is about science and not a political organisation. There are a few such as Varenholtz who finally wondered about their reports so actually read them and were amazed at all the mistakes - or lies - they contained and changed their views. I can't name anyone who has made the journey in the opposite direction. Dull, damp, barely a breath of wind and cold.
On 03 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron you may be able to back me up here. In spring I predicted La Nina conditions for this winter Incorrect? No I predicted a quieter and cooler autumn, especially second half.. Incorrect? Certainly been quiter than normal. I predicted the last 3 winters to be mild and stormy . Incorrect? No For the last six years I have predicted winter 18/19 to be below average looking at solar cycle matching. Incorrect? Maybe but if I'm 1 Year out, not bad going. Fred did you judging by your reliance on models expect more snow/deeper cold last week? Yes is the answer.
On 03 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

JIM; yes, still can't access the full December forecast with half a week gone in December. Piers seems very busy with oodles of twitter posts on Facebook. He did say that he was making some updates to SLAT14. DAVID & FRED: I'm enjoying the 'ding dong' as it what makes these comment post so much fun. Standard models eg GFS do suggest a largely cold period with potential for significant snowfall up until the 19th and thereafter Atlantic air coming in just in time to give us a traditional 'Christmas mild'
On 03 Dec 2017, Jim wrote:

Is anyone else having trouble accessing December forecast Regards jim
On 03 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Fred - what I have said is based on experience and trying to match up previous cycles. It is generally like Craigs as well, who is well respected on here There is some science behind it not standard models which we know are flawed. Yes of course I may be wrong. Never had a problem with that. I wasn't having a dig with the daily Express comment. If you want my advice take a watered down version of the models and if you believe the general scenario is correct.
On 02 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

No frost this morning a fairly bland grey day mostly cloudy this eve too max 7 deg 5 now at 23.58pm
On 02 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

Errrr no David, models showed what Piers forecast, you got it wrong...as you’ll get this winter wrong
On 02 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

5˚C at 7.30, snow gone apart from a few spots, feeling mild, sunny morning, rain from 2-4pm, but max temp 8˚ in a light W’ly breeze, still 7˚ at 10pm. My wife reports from Paris that it is still cold and damp there.
On 02 Dec 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Fred - You do like to jump on what the models show a fair way out my friend. No offence but how many times have they lead you up the garden path? Thanks for clarifying that Ron. Certainly looks a wintry Ecm chart or two. Almost a repeat of what we have just had, however with ground temps lowering and the upper air that bit colder low lying areas may see more of the white stuff IF IT played out like it is showing. Maybe Piers is having to amend his forecast for December?
On 02 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Gerry...I think this should be on a different thread but I'll be brief. Perhaps its a simple case of deliberate ignorance to mislead. In the same way that global warming is promoted by saying that the science and the opinion of thousands of scientists are all agreed on greenhouse gas theory and a human cause, when any real scientist, looking at the science behind the theory, can see its all baloney. So they are either being deliberately ignorant to further their personal mortgage paying agenda or more likely lying through their back teeth for the same reason. These people are smart enough to keep their wealth and prestige for generation after generation. They are not as daft as they pretend to be. Just like the bankers, pretending they have gone bust in the blink of an eye, then suck up bi££ions in tax bail-outs, while all the time secretly laundering more bi££ions in overseas drug and arms deals with dodgy cartels. See HSBC for a recent example.
On 02 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

DAVID: The ECM, GFS charts etc are all showing basically the same synoptic scenario from the 8th. Set up looks ripe for snow.
On 02 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

David....errrrr no? Have a look about
On 02 Dec 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Your lucky Ron! I dont even have a single sheet!
On 02 Dec 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

Russ - your theory that they really know fails when you actually meet the ruling classes and find out they know less than you. Dr Richard North produced the classic that before he met people in authority he used to respect them. Having met them, he wondered how they could make it through the day with their combination of ignorance and stupidity. Brexit is a classic exposure of not just their limitations but also of many in the business and industrial community. To see three top figures from aviation sit in a Commons committee and say that because 'flying was really important, like, you know, it is just going to carry on after Brexit' makes you unsure whether to cry tears of laughter or of despair. My spies tell me we had a bit of wet snow mid morning down my way yesterday. As I walked to the station I was struggling to see how the cold biting rain wasn't sleet or snow. Definite wind chill yesterday but calm today. Rain has cleared. 43F at noon.
On 02 Dec 2017, Davud ( Yorkshire) 30 Day Sub wrote:

Ron Stephen - it is late again - no point buying one to get it 5 days late. To be honest. Fred where have you read that? Daily Express
On 02 Dec 2017, Fred wrote:

7-10 looking like a potential serious weather event. Crippling snow could be fairly widespread as a deepening low pressure crosses southern half of the UK with arctic air tucking in from the north with high windchill factor. Piers have you any comment on this period?
On 02 Dec 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

STEPHEN PARKER: ditto question from me. Same happened last month. Got the single sheet summary, but the full report was well into the first week when it came out.
On 01 Dec 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, snow melting on frozen ground, very slight NWly breeze, sunny morning but clouding over by midday with temps gradually rising to 4˚ by 9.30pm, by which time the white stuff was disappearing fast.
On 01 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=60;62;2&l=temperature&w=0DAKtpv2b << Lets look at what's happening in Siberia shall we? Minus 44C with large parts of Canada, Greenland and Scandinavia close behind, hitting minus 30C. On December 1st?? That's one helluva cold snap they're having. When you consider a little ice age drags world average temps down around 2C, then something pretty catastrophic must occur to dump the planet down 18 to 20C for a full blown ice age. There's only one thing I know of that can do that for about 100,000 years...
On 01 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

We started watching 'The Day After Tomorrow' again tonight. Been a long time since we sat through that one. It's a really good film, with good acting, script is ok, camera work and direction keep your attention. The references to global warming are like a sharp stick to the auditory senses but something we all ought to take note of is the underlying message. I keep telling people that the ruling classes know full well whats in store, and they love to tell us on the tv and cinema screen. That film is full of real science and truth. It just uses the wrong trigger for the outcome, the wrong cause for the effect. Lots of cinematic references to a coming ice age e.g. Game Of Thrones and the above film as just two perfect examples. Ron Greers back garden was once under ice 2km deep, and only 14,000 years ago. There are many references to an ice age beginning extremely rapidly. Someone commented on ice age now that it would start in the coldest places first.
On 01 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Ctraig.... according to Wiki'misleadia, Rothko committed suicide, probably a fake death to artificially inflate the value of his paintings. Worth more dead than alive? One of the latest paintings sold went for $186,000,000....yes you read that right....MILLIONS!! According to some sources its a new way for billionaires to launder vast amounts of money, buying and selling useless pieces of art............Weather-wise....has anyone else noticed the poor blackberry brambles? After a fantastic year with a bumper harvest - I froze nearly 3kg off a small patch, the leaves of which feed my Jungle Nymph throughout the year - the poor plant has succumbed to the canker blight early and has withered like a limp withery thing, all grey and disheveled, like its dying. I'm going to take cuttings and start new plants or my foot long Nymph will be going hungry. Yep...another of evolutions cul de sac's like the Giant Panda. Just eats bramble leaves! The insect is more thorny than the bramble...tis tru
On 01 Dec 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Harder frost this morning around -2 at 6 a.m ground and roads still icy in sheltered spots at 11.30 a.m. Some nice sunshine to get out and about in wrapped up, temp max 6 deg. 1 deg at 8pm 0 dewpoint.
On 01 Dec 2017, Lorraine wrote:

Lorraine// oh my I have French tv and south west France has snow disruption Pyrenees
On 01 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

RUSS: I coined the phrase Mobeeb some years ago, which I thought conjured some kind of evil force a la Dr.Who or Star Trek that followed a corny script line. It seems to have entered the common parlance on this site. Taking about Simian Footppainters, they are going for a scenario after the 7/8th which indicate quite a potential for snowfall.
On 01 Dec 2017, stephen parker SUB wrote:

Any one know what's happened to the December 30 day?
On 01 Dec 2017, Michael wrote:

This is to @CraigM350. Is the forecast you have submitted your own or is it the Met Office et al? I see that you are in Berkshire and I would be interested in your comments for south Wales and the Brecon Beacons. Many thanks in advance.
On 01 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

I've set up an open thread on the news blog where I'm keeping a weather diary. It's for general weather discussion this winter for anyone who wants to - all welcome. It's obviously not to replace the observations here. === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2017/11/30/winter-2017-18-open-thread/ === 6z GFS going for a drop to sub -5°C in 850hpa temps around the 7/8th with the mean that low to the end of the run. A mild incursion before then, although it's looking dry. Cold today still but has warmed up somewhat with lovely blue skies.
On 01 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...cont.. UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017: The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes. Updated: 01:48 on Fri 1 Dec 2017 GMT
On 01 Dec 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Russ - ridiculously over priced squiggles on a page... sounds like a supercomputer ensemble forecast :D...speaking of which === UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017: Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes....cont..
On 01 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

I think the chimp's art would be immeasurably more pleasing to the eye!
On 01 Dec 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Ron.....your reference to chimp footpainters got me thinking about a suitable Met Office reference. Then I thought of a stupidly expensive (Met Office?) yet utterley contemptible (Met Office?) painting I saw the other day by an (artist?) called Mark Rothko >> https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Mark+Rothko&t=ffnt&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images << Maybe he used to be a weatherman but changed careers? Who knows....
On 01 Dec 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Does the deal for December( which I took out) include the full forecast or just the the 100d summary sheet? Standard models struggling with position and timings of HP in the Atlantic. More mobile situation looks as if it might bring periods of snow in the interplay of air streams, but no suggestions of lasting HP over Fennoscandia or dominating influence of Greenland HP
On 01 Dec 2017, Andy wrote:

A light dusting of snow in Oving this morning, not quite a Christmas Card scene! Eastside wouldn't be impressed.
On 01 Dec 2017, eastside wrote:

This morning brought a really nice strong covering of snow to Massif centrale and Pyrenees, where it will snow enough to raise nearly 1m on the mountains. As usual, panic will set in, schools close, nanny state says "don't go out" and people swear at the weather. None of this would bother us tuppence up in Northern Europe or Russia, but there we have it, European nonsense, namby pamby values & climate change has done the rest. Who knows how it will be as the colder winters become more regular approaching 2025...energy prices hit records thanks to Greeny meany and "alternative" stuff pandered by lunatics like Royale & Hulot, happy to freeze pensioners to death. Just want to know when the ski stations open now!
On 30 Nov 2017, michael (30+45 day sub) wrote:

Mercia/Wessex border 600' asl @ 22:00 Clear skies, cold northerly wind, temps around 32F Regards Michael (30+45 day sub)
On 30 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

GREAT COMMS & REPORTS ALL! QUESTION HAVE YOU GOT YOUR NEW DEAL SUB DO IT! My Report (Direct Obs to me) from Putney Heath London SW. Snow shower ~11.30-12 noon gmt. It settled briefly + caused a bit of excitement in Ark Putney Academy. Unsure at present if there was also snow in Roehampton (lower down) but I think not. So there's a Physics prob for them. The answer is of course temperature lapse rate in ANY gas in a gravitational field - abc in schools since the dawn of applied thermodynamics - steam trains in the Victorian era etc. However given the advent of cretin physics associated with the man-made CO2 global warming con and the astounding number of supposedly educated people who have claimed there would be no lapse rate but for CO2/water vapour one wonders what will get said in schools in answer to the question why did it snow on the hill and not in vale? Secondary school science teachers should all get it right but primary schools? ASK your / any kids to discuss it in school.
On 30 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, as expected, all white out there with about 1cm of snow, by 8 we were beginning to get serious snow showers on a NW’ly wind. Taking my wife to the airport then, a journey that normally lasts just over half an hour took 1.5 hrs, there were lorry breakdowns on the A90 and the usual bottlenecks on the ring road, fortunately we had left in plenty time. Max temp 1˚ with frequent heavy snow showers and occasional very bright sunny interludes. 0˚ at 8pm but rising to 1˚ by 9.30pm. My wife is reporting snow from Paris, looking at the weather map this is not too surprising.
On 30 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) 30 Day Sub wrote:

Totally agree Craig - Dwarf from the North. Never looked like a 2010 set up to me and I'm not a professional forecaster.
On 30 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Day started with a frost rising to a high of 4°C with dew points at -4°C so quite parky, especially in any winds. Had the feel of snow in the air, clouds looking like it too, but not even a flurry. Liam Dutton posted snow flurries in London on Twitter this morning. Sunspots down to 12, flux at 73. The jet looks to be pushing into the Atlantic and Greenland(ish) block. If it goes N we get warmer, S we get colder. All change over the US. Need to look at Piers US winter forecast & see how it compares. Judah Cohen has been saying the 2010 look to the atmosphere is now now 2013ish. If the sun stays quiet & with the blocks setting up where they are I can see this being a long winter, just not a locked in one here. We'll get a good chance in the S this winter but I still think more up N affected (NW/N/NE). The wavy jet seems to be offering the possibility of a real snow pasting if connects right & there are months to go with the cold building nicely.
On 30 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

.. UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017: The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes. Updated: 16:22 on Thu 30 Nov 2017 GMT
On 30 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Latest MetO update === "UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017: Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes....cont...
On 30 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Overnight frost clearing quickly this morning some increasing cloud & light cold showers around midday after a sunny start and a few later in the afternoon. Cold Nnw light wind and temp Max 6 deg. Looks like -1 with frost possible later cold and 2 deg with partly cloudy partly starry sky at 7.20pm
On 30 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Ron, I think BBC is very quietly trying to retreat from its warming disaster party line, particularly after the stupidity of reporting two very icy antarctic winters causing Adelie penguin breeding to fail. It does not take much intelligence to call them out on Polar Bear+Adelie Penguins together means warmer = colder. Now if the reason were greater tilt in NH, ok. But carbon dioxide distributes globally quite fast, so it cannot be that. All in all, the flasher in the park is lying low for a while....
On 30 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

Doing a good weather analysis last night watching football. A NE breeze across the ground was making it much colder as the temp hovered above freezing. With the breeze and some cloud I thought it would be ice free this morning. Wrong. Phone dragged me from my slumber to report it was 30F outside. Ice had been on the windscreen at 36F. Wasn't as bad as it could have been but having got gloves and hat out for football I was pleased to wear them on the way to work. I thought I had seen a flake or two at home but mid morning in the City we had a snow flurry. Up to just 39F coming on 2pm. Good piece by Tim Ball on iceage saying that standard met can only do 2 days ahead and yet we are expected to trust them 50, 100 years ahead. Will or are they creating revised models for meridional Jetstream? Their existing ones clearly only work for a zonal stream.
On 30 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

DAVID: summary sheet for December available, but not the full data as yet. Increasingly frequent snow showers on a biting northerly setting in now. All frozen hard after the brief thaw yesterday. No 2010 in sight nonetheless.
On 30 Nov 2017, Jonathan Hunt wrote:

Hi Piers, The December forecast doesn't appear in my BI all Winter Subscription. Can you please check? Thanks Jonathan
On 29 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, damp & feeling cold in the fresh N’ly wind, sunny morning, still plenty of frozen ground in spite of a max temp of 3˚, snow showers from midday onwards, sticking on all the frozen patches, a proper winter’s day, 0˚ at 9pm feeling like a really cold night to come, radar showing a rash of showers down the N and E coast, so we might wake up to more of the white stuff.
On 29 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Well we just reached 5 deg. After lunch which was actually cold and raw Not " not warmer but milder" like some institutions would have you believe! by 2.40pm temp could be felt dropping back down and we have 0 deg ish feeling like -2 with a freeze back under way at 7.30pm I confess a lil slow on the uptake (must have had a temp. case of brain freeze 😨) But just had an intelligent moment and realised if I upgraded from 30d to 45d atm with Piers generous dealz I would get me a bargin, so a quick reminder to the better half of how we could do with a heads up on Jan. weather what with expecting a baby and how the pain of labour is a lot to deal with nevermind thinking about what will the weather be like, he said yeah good thinking go get weatherwise or something like that 😂 so thanks Piers ;-)
On 29 Nov 2017, Davud ( Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Piers will December forecast (30 day) definitely be released tommorrow?
On 29 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

HEY SNOW HOPERS! IT'S COMING - confirming our WeatherAction forecast 9wks ahead but interestingly weather in terms of 4wk ahead FULL detail has been often about 2-3 days late as some have helpfully noted. It might be from a general solar wind activity decline or more likely something more subtle. ANYHOW ARE YOU OK? I ASK YOU (each person) BECAUSE DESPITE AMAZING OFFERS - up to 90%OFF eg for TheWholeLOT 12m sub - THINK ABOUT IT - uptake is very very very slow and low. You might now in celebration of the WhiteStuff and WeatherAction success top up your sub (Sell your BlackFriday deals on Ebay to get cash??!!) which means forecast extensions at fantastic value if you are an existing subber. Or as a new person get WeatherWiser than everyone you know! Buy yourself or a friend Xmas prez now and give them the email(username) and password at Xmas. Seize the Time. Dig Deep - Snow - prezzies - and forecasts for year ahead! Thank YOU! PC
On 29 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subs) wrote:

CRAIG 350: Sounds remarkably like the Decembers of my childhood and youth when the mild spells nearly always coincided with Xmas day despite snow and cold in the run up. Anyway no sign of a major blocking HP over southern Scandinavia for the time being. As I write 15.18hrs Tuesday, a few flakes of snow are drifting in the wind.
On 29 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017: At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions. Updated: 03:24 on Wed 29 Nov 2017 GMT
On 29 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

David - why do they bother? Probably because with a stopped clock you can call success at done points ;) === latest === Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017: Next week starts rather cloudy, but dry with some rain or drizzle in the north and west. Meanwhile, the best of any brightness at first is likely in the southeast. The rain will slowly move southwards with colder, brighter and showery conditions returning across all areas. The colder and brighter conditions are likely to remain through the rest of next week with the chance of some heavy showers, some of which will fall as snow. For the remainder of this period a blocked pattern is likely to persist meaning it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and showers. These falling as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels..'cont..
On 29 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

SHAUN& MARIA: keep up the good work on the biased broadcasting corporation's propaganda. Never underestimate the sophistry of the MObeeb. Interesting to see the struggle the standard models are having over the mid/long term. I've found that MWIS ( mountain weather information service) to be the most open and even the blatantly warmist Norwegian Weather Service more reliable and trustworthy than the Mobeeb. Now, what is going to happen with the Atlantic and Greenland high pressures!? Over to you Piers.
On 29 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Ps 12.35 and the sun is shining heading off out to lay in the sun lounger and soak up the warmth :-)))
On 29 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

I know right Shaun they reckon we could reach 7 maybe 8 deg. today Despite the cold start, it is barely 3 deg. feels more like 0 outside, the overnight frost has only just melted and no low temp warning for ice last night despite being -2 this morning and the vehicle sliding in places on the icy roads at 6.30 a.m lol but they now know in time for tonight we could get -3 so be careful on the roads but still temps look like reaching a warm 7-10 deg by day, brrreally haha!-)
On 29 Nov 2017, Shaun wrote:

cont... that a heat wave is elevated temps for 5 or more consecutive days I believe it was, but then a brief interlude of barely above average temps means I get it rammed down my throat from all directions. As you pointed out Maria the idependent.ie acting as though the cold has gone it's still nearer cold than it is mild, while here its still cold with 4 high and -2 low this eve and 3-0 for the next two days. Instead of viral stories on facebook, twitter and various news outlets about the cold its barely mentioned and when it is mentioned you get articles like that acting as if the cold was almost non existent, its bloody 7 degrees below average today. Then condescending arrogant people rape us for not believing in global warming, aside from all of my other reasons not to believe, the media reporting alone casts so much obvious bias and out right inaccurate or even wrong information about the state of the weather I think we have every reason to be skeptical, rant over
On 29 Nov 2017, Shaun wrote:

@Maria beat me too it... I was about to say how quiet our supposedly unbias BBC news has been over this cold weather, in this part of the world (South Wales) MO data shows average highs around 11 degrees while the whole week is no higher than 8 with two days wit highs of 3. Their data also states that the average high of the coldest months is still around 7, so the highs this whole week are colder than the coldest months highs, then the lows this week match the lows of the coldest monts and even surpass them. Met Office states the average low for Jan and Feb is zero, sounds mild but as they love to talk averages when its warm, it is actually colder than average today than the averager low of the coldest months, the entire week is below average. You could just pretend the BBC dont find weather news worthy, but when the weather reaches above average for like 10 minutes in a day then sites around average the worlds media literally goes viral with heat wave, despite Met Office declar
On 28 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, damp from the overnight rain, staying dry for a little while until the showers started kicking in - today was a perfect illustration of the Scottish word ‘dreich’: cold, wet, windy with no prospect of improvement, even though we did have a few sunny interludes, slippy underfoot in places because the ground hasn’t thawed everywhere, max temp 4˚, continuous penetrating NW’ly wind, 3˚ by 9pm, more of the same likely tomorrow. Actually, it is just one type of typical November weather, nothing to get excited about :-)
On 28 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Craig - Why do they bother with that forecast. I haven't subscribed to December yet. Been holding out for a 30 day sub offer. Looking at the jet stream it is hard to say if we will end up cold mild next couple of weeks but I would suggest mild looks more likely except Scotland and Northern Ireland. Like I have said the dwarf from the North.
On 28 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Overnight the models have swing to less favorable for snow and deep cold with the block not situated nr. Greenland but w/sw of Ireland (hmm now where did I read about a high to our west?). The 6z today was more of a snow fest showing how fickle the models are. Year after year they go haywire when something changes often latching on to a push from the Atlantic & going with it. They mostly struggle with blocked situations, which is not surprising as the jetstream is now in a new meridonal MIA era (I.e. diff from the last ~30 years). After flatlining, sunspots perked up to 15 with a rise in flux to 70+, so it's not a surprise the cold, cold outlook shifted. Now if the sun goes quiet again will the modelled blocking appear stronger? And will the CME and coronal hole stream impacts, due tomorrow, set the models off more? Piers certainly forecast the cold incoming well but not the depth...is this the last or is more to come? Subscribe and be ahead of the game.
On 28 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...cont.... UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 27 Dec 2017: At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow even to low levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems crossing the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions. Updated: 02:23 on Tue 28 Nov 2017 GMT
On 28 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

David - didn't take until weds lol === UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 12 Dec 2017: A north to south split is favoured from Sunday and into early next week. It will be mainly cloudy in the north and west with some light rain or drizzle in places, however in the south and east it looks to be mainly dry with sunny spells, but perhaps some fog forming into the morning. Through the middle of the week, confidence in the forecast becomes much lower. However there will be a longer spell of rain before a return to colder conditions with sunshine and showers, some turning wintry. Thereafter it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread frosts to start the day, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, which may fall as sleet or snow even at low levels.
On 28 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

DAVID(Yorkshire) I share your cynicism on the Mobeeb's week-ahead forecasts ( which have at best a 36hr consistency). Only GFS fluctuates faster.
On 27 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, dry after overnight rain, a few stars visible through the clouds, strong W’ly wind in the morning, abating somewhat in the afternoon, light rain off & on after midday but not as much as forecast by MO, max temp 4˚, down to 3˚ by 9.30pm, ground still hard with frost in many places. Rain again tomorrow, as well as NW’ly wind.
On 27 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Story yesterday in the indep.ie saying brush with cold weather was short lived and met quoted saying temp back upto 9 to 12 deg. Well looking at their forecast all week temp not exceeding 8deg. And after just coming in from outside I wouldn't say it's mild it is bleeding parky out there and wind making the real feel more like at least 0 not 4/5 deg.
On 27 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Drizzle Sunday morning cleared the frost, some showers and a lil wind and milder in the sense of 8 deg. feeling like 4 deg lol. Grey with light showers and light wind 7/8 deg. briefly, but feeling cooler by afternoon 4 deg now at 8pm poss. frost and icy patches in places later tonight, cooler again by midweek forecasted.
On 27 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Craig - that will have completely changed by Wednesday would put money on it. Seems very confident on cold for the met office. Can't see it myself
On 27 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

...UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 26 Dec 2017: The first few days of this period are most likely to be dominated by a northerly airstream bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to the British Isles. The showers are likely to be wintry even to low levels, with some accumulations on hills, especially in the east and northeast. Temperatures are set to be rather cold or cold everywhere, with widespread overnight frosts. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of periods of mobility developing, with an associated increase in rainfall (especially across some western areas). This would encourage temperatures to recover closer to average. Updated: 15:11 on Mon 27 Nov 2017 GMT
On 27 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Lastest MetO Update days 6-30 === UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Monday 11 Dec 2017: It is expected to be rather cloudy for most on Saturday, with outbreaks of rain or drizzle at times. Breezy too, especially around the coasts. Feeling milder than earlier in the week, with temperatures nearer to average for the beginning of December. A north to south split is favoured from Sunday and into early next week. Turning colder once again across the north of the UK, with frosty weather returning, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry. However, it may stay slightly less cold in the south with the risk of some rain here at times. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels....cont...
On 27 Nov 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

partial thaw here at 140 metres then a re-freeze with nasty black ice about. Very little snow has come off the hills. Chilly wind setting in. Mobeeb and GFS going for the re-establishment of cold next week. PADDY: Norway Maple leaves long gone here, but the last Lime leaves only fell a few days ago.
On 27 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

Rhys - yes, pockets so exist. Redhill aerodrome regularly produces low temps for the area and is a noted frost hollow so no reason warmer pockets can't exist. Volcanoes - for the last 3 weeks or so have seen just two small sunspots and we have a couple volcanoes erupting. Is there a connection? Is this s assign of things to come? The anticipated frost of this morning didn't happen as it was raining overnight and was wet and miserable and chilly. Still dull.
On 27 Nov 2017, Ruairí (East cost of Ireland) wrote:

Interesting times ahead.....
On 26 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, still a stiff & cold W’ly breeze, clear sky and turning into a great sunny day, ground still frozen and max temp only 3˚, cloudy evening though and rain by 9pm, we seem to have been cut off from the N’ly airflow, just a foretaste of winter so far, 2˚ by 10.30pm. I noticed today that we still have an almost completely green hazel bush across the road and the Norway maple in the front garden still has some brilliant yellow leaves on it.
On 26 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

GREAT COMMS ALL IN EXCITING WEATHER TIMES *BREAKING*NEWS* We now have special Black Friday-Week etc VERY AMAZING offers 67%-79%OFF. NOW is best time for a long while to RENEW / SUBSCRIBE =>=> Go to www.WeatherAction.com <=<= All (re)new subs by existing subscribers start where old sub ends (or forecast credits for overlaps) . Pass it on too. Thank you
On 26 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb week-ahead postulating the Atlantic HP to slip south at the end of the week, allowing less cold Atlantic air in from the NW, so David your 5 day duration was a good estimate f this scenario happens. Yes, I remember the snowy autumn and early winter of 1992 as I was organising some field trips in the Highlands and also the winter, especially the spring of 1986. Note quite 2010 yet, but quite a change over the last 3 winters when I had acorns sprouting in my seedbeds.
On 26 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Eastside - Good to hear from you. Well I've been touting next winter as the next severe one purely based on solar cycle matching and expected ocean currents/cycles, however maybe it will be this winter instead. Certainly there is alot more chance of cold in UK this winter than the last 3 but that wouldn't be difficult. Jet does look like it wants to dig south more with less energy in any northern arm recently . It's just with really low solar activity expected next Year the winter will be harsher.
On 26 Nov 2017, eastside wrote:

Cold? No big deal right now. Summer was very cold in E Europe, then Autumn horribly cold and wet. Expected snowfall from wed-fri this week in France then back to cold and wet after an unbelievable week of temperatures of 15-17C for late november. I expect a repeat of winter 2010.
On 26 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Gerry I think we must have a little warm pocket here, as I remember in the spring you were having frosts damaging fruit trees and we just about got away with it. We did have another frost this morning and I suspect a few more will follow this week. The parsnip soup season will soon start in earnest! I do not see anything particularly abnormal about this autumn: autumn 1992 in Scotland we were wading through knee deep snow on the mountains almost every weekend from mid October to mid December, bar one after a SW tempest washed everything away. 1986 we bailed out of a walk in to Knoydart courtesy of a blizzard in Fort William in November and another November when we did make it in we woke on Saturday morning to steady snowfall in the valley which dumped 20cm by nightfall. Not so much changes in the weather, it is just that records of the past do not always end up in the brains of the next generation...
On 26 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

James D - Yes I noticed that had been toned down on the homepage. To have been the craziest November ever seen would have took some doing. That is like an Daily Express headline. On the plus side Piers forecast has gone very well, for the last third of the Month. Very close match on the weather charts and maybe more snow, than currently expected will crop up this week especially on the hills.
On 26 Nov 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

While Rhys notches up his first frost we have already had a few down in my corner of Surrey. Two on the trot this weekend and likely again tomorrow morning. Need to get the windscreen cover on and de-icer spray ready. On Friday evening to my surprise at 6pm there was ice on the windscreen. The frost is bringing the leaves down with the breeze. A shower of 4 inches of snow - some shower. The legacy media are very biased in their reporting as they are in the thrall of the warmists.
On 26 Nov 2017, Ron Greer (subs) wrote:

I see the Shitxpress are forecasting 60 days of freezing hell again for the UK. How can you hope to compete, Piers!!??
On 26 Nov 2017, JamesD wrote:

Hi, What happened to the "craziest November"? All reference has been removed from website and no discussion on validity of statement.
On 25 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

DAVID' good question, but the Mobeeb, will not be able to answer it either. Well done Piers.
On 25 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, ground frozen solid, fresh & penetrating W’ly wind which kept going all day, mostly cloudy with a bit of sunshine around the middle of the day, snow on the nearest hills. Temps rising to 3˚ max and still that at 10.30pm. Sunny day forecast for tomorrow.
On 25 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Another freezing morning with widespread frost which cleared by 11.30 a.m A lovely blue sky sunny day but the breeze remained and the low temp kept the day raw, max 4 / 5 deg. Some amazing clouds later in the day but mostly clear and starry again now with frost already set back in and a fire lit as the house struggling to hold heat tonight. Winter is here and yeah nice one well forecasted Piers :)
On 25 Nov 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Strange how these people seem to accurately know the physical composition of the sun and precisely how it works, yet when the aurora turn pink they are as baffled as a 5 year old shown calculus for the first time... >> http://spaceweather.com/ << Hey - it gives me a good giggle!
On 25 Nov 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42119571 <<... and the actual live pics ... >> https://trafficscotland.org/map/index.aspx?type=26 <<... Well done Piers, and so far ahead with your prediction. The Met boys and girls must be fuming!
On 25 Nov 2017, C View wrote:

Glencoe Ski Centre report having a snow "shower" yesterday that deposited 10cm of snow in one hour.
On 25 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Shame it's not Christmas week for this type of weather. Good set up just a bit too early. Will it last more than 5 days from today though?
On 25 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

First frost of the year this morning in NW London and webcams at Glencoe show widespread snow down to Rannoch Moor, also snow cover at Inverduie outside Aviemore. The Swiss snow cover extent maps show snowfall this autumn has come on NW-N winds not SW-SE winds (higher levels on north side of Alps, less than average on south side). Two more depressions from NW this week, so the trend will continue. Overall, Eurasian snow cover through September and October second highest in the past nine years.....
On 25 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:

What a sparkling Morning a bit chilly with a frost on the car and grass early but +3 now at 10am, the sun is so low and strong you need sunglasses, looks like a great winters day.
On 24 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Heavy ice on the car at 10.30.. this in the home counties
On 24 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

-1 / -2 this morning widespread frost and patches of black ice in places, cold raw day with temp not climbing much above 3 / 4 deg. A couple of short sleety light showers. -1 at 10.20pm frost already set in a hour or 2 ago and yellow snow/ice warning still in place.
On 24 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, clear & starry beginning and turning into a lovely sunny day with a max temp of 2˚, everywhere except in full sun the ground never thawed, W’ly breeze, occasional clouds, -3˚ at 9.30pm. Still a little snow lying here and there, something resembling winter is here at last, big change from October.
On 24 Nov 2017, BLACK PEARL wrote:

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On 24 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

It has already arrived here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire via a heavy shower at 11-30-45 hrs--about 5 cms or so. Well done, Piers.
On 24 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

CITIZENS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW IS COMING - confirming Lon-Range forecast. Watch it closely and have fun =+=+=+= TODAY 24th (24/25th) is LAST DAY FOR 6/12 month FAB REDUCTIONS so SUBSCRIBE / EXTEND Existing Sub NOW to make sure you will be weather-wise through all winter and 2018 - AND Pass this great news on to anyone who needs to get weather-safer. Thanks Piers
On 23 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cold windy with some squally showers temp not above 5/6 deg feeling much colder with wind chill. Frost by 10pm yellow warning for ice and snow, not looking forward to the roads tomorrow morning as had a lot of flooding around, some areas hit much worse though. Great pic of a waterspout off the coast of Donegal on IWO.
On 23 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, a light covering of snow, sun coming out soon after though and melting it to a certain degree, off our hill it hardly stuck, NW’ly wind backing W’ly during the day, max temp 1˚, occasional snow flurries in the morning, dry afternoon, clear starry evening, 0˚ at 9pm, another cold day forecast for tomorrow. == Most definitely very different from last year, Ron, bracing. Cleared the last of the summer flowers from the garden yesterday, thanks to the mild October they were worth keeping for that long.
On 23 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

Standard models going for cold right into Ist week of December. Mobeeb in Scotland going for temps down to minus 9 in east-/central Highlands--not quite like 2010 at this time, but sharp enough. Already very different from last year.
On 23 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Really turned chilly now after heavy squally showers. I notice more rain fell in some parts, than standard forecasters expected.
On 23 Nov 2017, AndyB 45d sub @250ft wrote:

Two interesting videos about effect of planets on our future weather slightly controversial but the ,position of these planets will be accurate no one knows for sure what effect they will have on the orbit of the earth. What do you all think and is it possible to calculate earths movement? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXhVLP1Ld48&t=583s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VblusvRZ7wA&feature=youtu.be
On 23 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

A bit windy yesterday and into the night. Rain over night but warm. Brought in firewood but no need to use it. Sharp heavy shower this morning but soon cleared to blue sky. Cold wind.
On 23 Nov 2017, C View wrote:

After 3 days of low cloud persistent drizzle with the odd heavier burst of rain we had snow falling to 150ft. in Inverclyde. All hills north side of the Clyde thick with snow down to 500 ft
On 23 Nov 2017, Rob wrote:

Still nothing excessively cold (blue / purple) close to UK on ECM until well into December. Talk about your P.G Tips chimps!..I still think it'll be a case of : "Have you heard of the 'Beast From The East,' Fred ? " "You hum it, I'll play it, Charley !
On 23 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Early Xmas card scene( just) here this morning at 140 metres. Heavy wet snow in large flakes fell in the wee sma' hours after some hours of rain.
On 23 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub. wrote:

We are so lucky down here in Dorset on the south Coast, it was a funny day for weather yesterday windy but not a cold day at all wind quite warmish realy got quite hot cutting a beech hedge but got it Finnished so quite chuffed about that it stayed dry right throughout until about 7 in the eve, a windy night last night but a clear morning, 13c 5am but down to 8c by 8am, you can keep your cold weather hope it stays mild till summer. But then we do live in dear old England and hopefully we can stay like that for many,many many years to come (Brexit providing)
On 22 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

The heavy rain started just after midnight and cleared in the late morning, some short showers on n off since but seems to have stopped this eve and a noticeable drop in temp from 3pm, 4 deg feeling like 0 at 10 30pm hot chocolate time :-)
On 22 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

4˚C at 7.30, no rain until 11, then light and steady drops until around 6pm, hardly any wind apart from a light breeze which gradually veered from SW to NW, max temp 5˚, down to 2˚ by 9pm. More rain and then sleet forecast for tomorrow, the LP we’re sitting in is being hemmed in by HP on three sides, a grey prospect.
On 22 Nov 2017, Sou'wester (Cornish border, sub) wrote:

After a somewhat balmy and calm day yesterday,which followed some crispness in the days preceding, all change today. The much colder northerlies are buffeting us this afternoon with gales and rain, and the sea is rough. The current 3-day section of Piers' November forecast is correct, especially the rough seas and N'ly blast parts. They have cancelled trains again between Plymouth and Exeter because there are breakers crashing onto the line at Dawlish, and a fence fell onto the Tamar Bridge offices.
On 22 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron - My take and it's just going on experience of simular set ups this time of Year is a 4-5 day cold spell from Friday,especially up north with snow (settling) confined to High ground. I just can't see that Atlantic High pressure ridge being as strong and long as Ecm suggest. Further south and west will be milder. Not convinced that High pressure to our South will be moved that easily either. Piers patters have been good just about a 4 day lag on them, at the minute and not a crazy November.
On 22 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:

It was 15c at 5.30am this morning with no dew at all, funny thing is when you have no dew in the morning you end up with rain, quite windy but still mild even in this wind, very cloudy and dull still dry at 10am with the threat of rain, we could do with some.
On 22 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

DAVID, yes all the main standard models tend to support Fred as did Nick Miller's 'winter is coming' quote on the latest week-ahead offering on the Mobeeb, BUT as we know from recent experience they only have at most a 2 day validity. So, what's your take? Glad I ordered up more coal, due to arrive today, as the suggestion is possible disruptive snow up here from late tonight onwards.
On 22 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn London Chief Forecaster wrote:

THANKS ALL FOR GREAT COMMS! All watch / report closely next few days weeks. These are exciting weather times! +=+=+=+ GREAT OFFERS 6m/12m reductions end on Nov 24 when prices go up! SUBSCRIBE! DO IT ON / BY Nov 24th. New subs start where old one ends. Pass it on Thanks.
On 21 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

A positively balmy 7˚ at 7.30, wet again with rain all day, some of it really heavy, ground saturated, the LPs bringing all this water seem to be wedged in by His on all sides. Winds light, from SE at first & gradually turning into the SW, max temp 10˚ and still that at 10pm. Drier interlude tomorrow morning expect, rain again after midday.
On 21 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

A tad premature to be saying that Fred but you have managed to rope me in and look at Ecm. Looks interesting but I will believe it,when it still shows at the weekend and that's 4/5 days away yet. Will be a great success if it does play out that way into December.
On 21 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Yellow rain warning up for us in Leinster and Munster also from midnight tonight.
On 21 Nov 2017, Fred wrote:

Very cold weather digging in from later this week with a N to NE flow and even colder with snow for many into next week. HP to NW displaced PV to E/NE. All models on board now......well done Piers...looking spot on.
On 21 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subs) wrote:

Pinch of salt required, but GFS giving snow-bereft southerners something of a chance at the weekend. Standard horrible dreich November day here in the meantime reminding me of why it's my least favourite month.
On 21 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Hi Stephen - which one the January 8 week freeze?
On 21 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Sat. Drizzle on n off & mild. Sun. Dry and even some sunny spells at times great for working outside. Back to drizzle yesterday and remained mild 11 deg at 10pm Overcast with drizzly showers today and 11 deg. at midday. As everywhere Met chopping and changing here and after the cold wkend they at first forecasted they now have cold and snow with a Polar low mid week onwards..
On 21 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Very normal Autumn weather.To be fair, the main uncertainty was how far south the snow would be. That was on the front page. David, do you recall my forecast?.
On 21 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Fred we have just had normal autumn weather. Swinging from mild to cold and that will continue into next week. Very typical of November.
On 20 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, wet with rain continuing throughout the day, stopping only occasionally, light E’ly wind, max temp 6˚ and still that at 9pm. We’ll apparently be in for similar treatment tomorrow.
On 20 Nov 2017, Fred wrote:

Crazy Nov? Well yes as it’s been quite mild and at times really chilly. Temps have tumbled lower than expectation, also England v Australia....Mobeeb said patchy rain across SE as front passéd through.....well it P’d down all afternoon and much much heavier than forecast.....R4 period. Now the Crescendo beckons
On 20 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb swinging back to cold air penetrating further south at the weekend. Simian footpainters using more green and blue again
On 20 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:

For barmy weather the word I would use is balmy weather, cloudy all day mild very good for November but not unusual I would say. Very good for outdoor work today.
On 20 Nov 2017, Ian wrote:

To be the craziest November ever as at 20/11/2017 - I am wondering is weather Armageddon round the corner - to date November is a very damp squib!
On 20 Nov 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

David and Gerry--I of course share your scepticism over the Mobeeb projection time period. If Piers even just had the interest on 90 million, just think what he might achieve. Snow down to 350 metres this morning, now melting. About 10C now at our altitude, but with a raw feeling.
On 20 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

I would have a problem with the Mobeeb only forecasting 2 days ahead in that the Met O helped themselves to £90m of taxpayer cash to buy a new supercomputer to be able to forecast better. If they can't do better we should get our cash back. Rapid temp changes at the moment as at around 9pm last night it was icing up nicely but I am sure I heard rain during my sleep and lo this morning it was damp and 47F. Wet and miserable so far today. Well the lone sunspot didn't last long and after a 13 day stretch we are back to a blank sun again. Meanwhile Siberia is seeing below average cold by 10-12C taking it from -30C to that magic point where it is -40 on either scale. I am not sure how much difference that makes since in my book -30C is effing cold. Does flesh begin to freeze around -40? Still the planet is saved as a group of nations that don't use coal to generate power won't use coal to generate power. I think the 68%of Angolans with no electricity wouldn't give a sh*t where it came from.
On 20 Nov 2017, M Lewis (75 days sub) wrote:

No sign of a "crazy" November just yet. BBC1 Breakfast forecast for this week is wet and windy and mild. I can remember the extreme cold UK winter of December 1981 when we had severe frosts and night time temp down to -20C with daytime not rising above freezing! The last time a truly severe winter set in before December and lasted throughout the following January and February was in 1683-84 - the Great Winter of "Lorna Doone". So a "crazy" November could be a touch romantic!.
On 20 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Yes paddy not gone to plan. Not really crazy at the minute. Ron I think BBC would be better off just sticking to the next 2 days at the minute and admitting they are not sure any further ahead. I wouldn't have a problem with that.
On 20 Nov 2017, Fred wrote:

Mobeeb backtrack from cold ironically as soon as the models in unison firm up on cold blast as described by Piers....
On 20 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb already backtracking on their week-ahead forecast on cold air penetrating all the way to the far south. That was just in 24 hrs. Amazing how short a week that was.
On 19 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, less windy from the W than yesterday and turning into yet another sunny day until about 3pm, with a max temp of 4˚, after which cloud started moving in from the W as the prelude of the rain that is now over most of the country except in the NE corner for now but will arrive shortly. It appears that we will have two rainy days ahead, not quite as per 30d forecast, according to which we should be getting blizzards. 2˚ at 9.30pm
On 19 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb now going for pronounced polar maritime outbreak at end of the week and since Tomas Schafenaker seems to almost dislike mentioning snow, this to me has more significance than usual.
On 18 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, clear with a slight NW’ly wind which strengthened and felt very sharp and cold as the day went on, amazingly blue sky though with sunshine all day, max temp 5˚, clear starry evening on this new moon day, 3˚ at 9.30pm.
On 17 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cold frosty start -1, a mix of cloud and sunny spells during the day max 8 deg 5 now at 10 pm and light drizzly shower or 2.
On 17 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, clear & frosty but clouding over during the morning for a number of hours, thereafter glorious sunshine for the rest of the day with a max temp of 6˚ and a light SW’ly wind, clear starry evening, 3˚ at 9.30pm.
On 17 Nov 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

DAVID(Yorkshire) Yes indeed, you have been consistent in that and I will mark your words. Hope you can say 'I told you so' in the winter of 2018/19.
On 17 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Mark my words and I have been banging the same drum for 5 Years on here . You southern snow lovers will get your wishes next winter in 3 or 4 hits. The beast from the East will awaken. This winter will be a case of the dwarf from the North.
On 17 Nov 2017, stephen parker SUB wrote:

RE:Ben Farrington Listen! My sea weed and rheumatics is always spot on!
On 17 Nov 2017, Ben Farrington, sub wrote:

The clocks ticking for November "to be the craziest you've ever seen", a mildish and unsettled 1st week, then cool with some snow on the high ground of the Scottish highlands. Today in Forres 9 degrees and bright. Just a thought, I think the geographical position of the UK makes it inherently difficult to predict weather (especially snow) with any degree of certainty, whether it's solar, lunar, ocean, models or how many berries on the trees etc...
On 17 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

From warm to cold again. No thought of lighting the fire last night it was so warm. checked the pond temp and it was still below 10C so winter food still. Thick frost on the windscreen this morning as it plunged. Phone said 36F and car thermometer read -1C (its French so doesn't real temp units). Blue sky and sunny but cold.
On 17 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Looks like cold won't penetrate south however the simian foot painters are doing their best *coughs* Lots of uncertainty ahead as John Hammond explaIns in this blog === "To say that the computer models have been struggling to answer these questions is an understatement! There had been a very strong signal that the UK would end up within a colder block of air as we headed into late November. However during the course of the last week, many of those same models have ‘flipped’ to a very different, much milder picture. In one instance I noticed a sub-zero forecast one day became 15 Celsius on the next computer run. It’s tempting to always lurch to the latest output from these models, but experience would suggest caution. Given the volatility of the atmosphere right now, the ‘flip’ could very soon be followed by a ‘flop’. Things are far from clear cut. The large scale atmospherics remain on a knife-edge" === https://weathertrending.com/2017/11/17/horizon-battleground-britain/
On 17 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Norwegian Met going for cold over Scotland for the next week and just beyond. Simian Footpainters have changed foot again and now going for mild south/SW airstream.
On 16 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, light rain first thing but soon brightening up into a glorious sunny day with a max temp of 8˚ and very few clouds, light W’ly wind and getting cold quickly after sundown, 0˚ at 10pm & going down, open ground already lightly frozen. == “Simian Footpainters”, you do coin some crackers, Ron, Mobeeb is one of yours also :-) == Welcome Nemi, good to have someone else from that part of the NE where the real stuff happens, we’re too close to the sea here.
On 16 Nov 2017, Nemi wrote:

Well, whilst some of you were enjoying An Indian Summer, here in the NE Cairngorms we had a full scale blizzard this morning, with snow for much of a 45 mile drive to Inverness. When I got to my mum’s in Tomintoul, there was still some snow on the lawn this evening.
On 16 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron I take your point however I do not look at models that often and only use Ecm/fax charts for an idea of the next 72 hours ahead or jet stream forecasts. Mainly I look, at past events and analogs. My main interest and source if any long term punt is solar cycles and oceananic cycles. So yes models to a degree. Oh and the behaviour of wildlife.
On 16 Nov 2017, Fred wrote:

I have to say an all too common issue over recent years. The switch and synoptic pattern is really good by Piers but it is held too far north. Of course the movement south could still happen but I fear neartime now the course is being seen by the models.
On 16 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Frost Monday morning clearing early cold to start showers later. Milder Tuesday and couple of short light showers humid with lots of midges. Foggy cooler start Wed. milderish and high humidity as the day progressed short sunny spells mostly cloudy. Max daytime temps around 11 deg 4/6 deg. overnight. Cool sunny blue sky day today max 9/10 deg feeling cooler more like 6 with a light NW'ly breeze, great day for an Autumn walk.
On 16 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset,UK. sub. wrote:

Further to my last comment we now have brilliant sunshine and a temperature of 13c, well you did say it would feel like a Indian Summers day, spot on Piers. Approx 10.45 am.
On 16 Nov 2017, Steve,Dorset, UK .sub wrote:

We have been blessed with very mild weather cloudy but mild and it has been good in the garden planting tulips for the spring again today Thursday 16 mild dry and nice to work outside again Piers is spot on with the cast for today so great job Piers, P.S I will resist the shorts wearing as the local postman seems to think it,s summer. I am tempted to follow what Piers has intimated...Winter Draws on.
On 16 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

'Simian Footpainters' have currently removed the Spanish Plume start to December and have now regressed to using more 'northern blue'/ torquoise in their late November 'palette' of prediction. DAVID( Yorkshire): models are the way weather is predicted in a supposedly scientific era,whether it's the standard 'Mobeeb' type of model,or the various SLAT models Piers and his team have developed over the years and I daresay even you use some kind of 'model' in your own predictions. Just a matter of belief, based on empirical evidence, of which one is the most reliable predictor of real events.
On 16 Nov 2017, Shaun wrote:

... times a day, like the hiker following their compass, slightly correcting their direction every few miles to ensure they are still on track, still means your first direction was WRONG. I have always noticed this, however I am aware of how memory fails us and our bias can make their level of change to the forecast seem ridiculous if I don't like them, so I use their own API which is just a means for me to programmatically access their data, which means I can get the values for every hour of every day, every day without having to do anything other than the initial coding, then track how often it changes in three days, then it's not my bias manipulating faded memories but truth, so yeah I know for certain they change it so often their models prove to be only reliable for a few hours and like the hiker have to keep correcting their direction to keep on path
On 16 Nov 2017, Shaun wrote:

I keep thinking the same @Gerry. I am a proogrammer so can see how a model that is a little wrong now will be a lot wrong later on, think of navigation with map and compass forward one mile, if the angle you walk is slightly off, at the end of that mile you will be slightly off, don't seem to bad though as it is only a little, but follow that path fifty miles and then you will be a lot off. While that is just a visual experiment, you can see that they change their forecast multiple times a day, yet they claim to have something ridiculous like 90%+ I believe in the next three days, yet they change their forecast multiple times a day, so if I forecast Sunday as three days ahead, firstly my todays prediction is the one that counts to claim 90% accuracy over three days, by updating daily one might argue they are only providing updates for accuracy for our sake, but then you can't claim todays forecast was correct, to be correct would require no update, but they do, every day, multiple
On 16 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Models flip flopping like a fish out of water!.All to play for next week, but as david says, it would be highly unusual for Southern Britain to have such severe weather. Winter is coming.
On 16 Nov 2017, Steve Devine wrote:

GFS foot-painting flipflops again. Latest concurrent runs show NE’lies from 24th onwards which would bring heavy snow to north and east of UK next week. Will probably disappear by the next run but it’s very interesting considering thr WA Nov forecast
On 15 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, clear start, not cold in the SW’ly breeze which blew all day, sunny morning again followed by a cloudy afternoon, max temp 6˚, no rain but very humid, 5˚ at 10pm.
On 15 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Aye, Mobeeb now on a foot-painting GFS volte falte-- with not a feckin HP in sight over UK in the next week-ahead forecast--I detected some embarrassment in the latest Schafernaker fantasy
On 15 Nov 2017, Davud ( Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Whatever was/is being forecast. people especially weather/climate enthusiasts shoud realise that you would need exceptional sypnotics to deliver any significant winter weather, South of Scotland in November. We all know you can't rely on models so why pin any hope or faith in them year after Year. I appreciate What Piers has forecast as well but looking at the state of play now. we would need a dramatic shift in placement of highs and lows in the next 10 days. Not impossible but improbable.
On 15 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

And yet we are told to trust the models to forecast 50 to 100 years ahead when just a few days is beyond them. Still can't believe how the Met get away with their accuracy claims. I presume it is based on the forecast they gave an hour before. Grey and miserable this morning but warm. Alarm time was 50F this morning. At least no windscreen scraping. The cheesegrater was in the clouds this morning but brightened up now. 13 spotless days now for the sun. Must be one of the longest spells recently.
On 15 Nov 2017, M Lewis (75 day sub) wrote:

No sign of a cold snap or snow across the UK. Just watched the BBC1 lunchtime weather and her forecast is for rain later on Sunday. No Arctic winter blast next week.
On 15 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

'Footpainters' now going for Spanish Plume to open December.
On 15 Nov 2017, Steve Devine wrote:

Oh Ron you do make me laugh! The GFS being compared to a chimp foot painting was absolutely priceless!!! Indeed the GFS changes it's mind on every run, every six hours. Anyone placing their faith in that model needs their head examined. No wonder there's always eternal bickering over on Netweather with people's hopes of snow/cold being dragged up and down like a roller-coaster. I'm just hoping and praying the ECMWF comes true as that's delivering an unsettled / mild interlude next week then a cold blast on the back edge 24/25th.
On 15 Nov 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

Stephen Parker; I agree, people were responding to various forecasts, some of which were outlining colder weather than the reality delivered. These forecasts from standard models varied quite a bit a short notice. MWIS is still predicting, as from yesterday, a colder trend into late November. GFS is like a chimp foot painting party at times. Mobeeb now saying in week- ahead video that the HP that was supposed to be centred over the UK by the weekend will not set in later next week. Betcha that changes by tomorrow.
On 15 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

DAVID (yorkshire ) Its not people getting their hopes up mate, they are reacting to what was forecast.
On 15 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Models now going for mild next week in England.
On 14 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

Aye, Mobeeb week-ahead doing more U turns than GFS. Instead of a HP either over the UK or to the NW, it's a LP at the weekend. with the uncertainty of a HP building in next week. It's a multi- million £ farce.
On 14 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Fred has gone quiet!!! I wonder what Eastsides thoughts are on the current state of affairs?? I would imagine it is getting cold where he is. #icegate
On 14 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

5˚C at 7.30, still raining a little but clearing up, feeling milder and turning into a fairly sunny morning, light W’ly breeze all day, max temp 8˚, cloudy afternoon and evening, 3˚ at 10pm. Picked the rest of our sweet white grapes in our tunnel, been a good crop this year.
On 14 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

RHYS; At 18,6 cyclicity it's either a coincidence or lunar. Anyway with various standard models in such disagreement over such a basic thing as a HP's position, one has to be cynical about their validity
On 14 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Russ If you think that UK temperatures do not oscillate around the Solstice, rather around 3-6 weeks later, it may explain why solar minimum does not see the coldest temperatures within an 11 year cycle. No doubt Piers has at some stage analysed temperature averages through solar cycles. Or, as 1947, 1963, 1981/2 and 1996 are a bit closer to an 18.6 year cycle than an 11 year cycle, maybe the key beats for exceptional cold are not 11 years but something else?
On 14 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

Well, I've been in Alaska at -36C and provided you took reasonable precautions is was OK and not so downright miserable as we get here. MWIS going for HP to the west of the Northern Isles by the weekend--they can't all be correct! Some models encouraged some to expect a cold snowy spell this month. Where is that HP going to end up?
On 14 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Met office 30 Outlook has completely changed and I believe it is in the money or at least far more likely . No snow except for far north in November. I do wish people wouldn't get there hopes up so much. Especially in November.
On 14 Nov 2017, Russ subs Derbyshire wrote:

Ron.....what is it Alaskans call -26C ? Ah yes! "A heavy frost"! I'm trying to remember a very mild winter just before the bad snows of 2010-11. The planet seems to do the same flip just before ice ages begin. There's a rapid increase in warmth, a temperature spike, then it plummets. Now December 2015 had daffodils blooming and last winter was very wet and very mild. Chilly I would say but not winter-like cold. So could 2017-8 be the start of a long cold snap? The snows of 2010-11 came around 24 months after solar minimum. So the warm winter would be around 2006-08. I seem to remember thinking, 'why is it so mild when we are at solar minimum'.
On 14 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

The Mobeeb HP block sitting over the UK seems to be at variance with other models--we'll know by the weekend---if they don't change their minds---again!!
On 14 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Ron Your childhood memories sound uncannily like my memories from 1986-1993. Could almost guarantee snow around the Black Mount just after Christmas, rain on Hogmanay (always an interesting walk back to the Uni Club hut after closing time) and snow again after New Year. The Alpine north side is now white with snow down into the valleys, up to 30cm at 1500m and up to one metre at 2500m recorded officially in Switzerland. A slow freeze thaw for four days should start a base ready for more snow at weekend, apparently....
On 14 Nov 2017, Steve Devine wrote:

Well what a surprise - the GFS has totally backtracked on any prolonged cold and instead is plumming for a brief cold snap for the weekend then a stormy week next week. ECMWF following a similar theme but colder from the north 24th November after that storm sweeps through.
On 14 Nov 2017, Piers Corbyn wrote:

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On 14 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb and GFS diverging quite a bit, with the former going for a blocking HP over the UK from the weekend and the latter going for a more mobile Atlantic pattern with a much less cold outlook than it was forecasting even just yesterday
On 13 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, overcast, damp & cold, frost on the car roof, dry morning with a light W’ly breeze, this changed after midday to a strong, penetrating and icy SW’ly wind with rain setting in from 2.30 onwards and going on into the evening, max temp 3˚ and still that at 9pm, a real November day.
On 13 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

The current GFS run ( bound to change radically) suggests the potential for a great deal of snowfall for northern Scotland, including blizzards on higher ground from the 17th-26th November. Thereafter turning much milder from the southwest. This reminds me of the Decembers of my childhood and youth where there would be a cold snap in the run up to Xmas, but then switching to mild and wet at Xmas, through to the New Year, when it would get colder again
On 13 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

I bet METO Outlook changes. Like a have previously said I think High pressure will be further East than projected by any model.
On 13 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Just started snowing here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire, first true flakes of the winter 0800hrs
On 12 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Light rain at times yesterday with a few sunny spells as it cleared through later, the cold air winning out as the day progressed & a bit breezy. No frost at 8 a.m this morn. but raw cold, continuing cold all day with temp not exceeding 5 or 6 deg. Mostly clear tonight and fffreezing :-) I believe theres been some reports of snow further North too...
On 12 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Monday 27 Nov 2017 to Monday 11 Dec 2017: Blocked patterns appear to be likely through this period, with a greater chance of colder, brighter and drier weather for most, with a easterly or northerly airflow, perhaps high pressure becoming more establised across the UK. However, there are likely to be some short-lived periods with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain or showery conditions, with some snow in places, especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to be below the average for late November and early December, with increased risk of overnight frost. Some shorter milder spells are possible in the south. Perhaps a return to a generally milder westerly flow towards the end of the period.
On 12 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Latest MetO update : === UK Outlook for Friday 17 Nov 2017 to Sunday 26 Nov 2017: Rain, perhaps heavy, will gradually clear away southeastwards during Friday, with a brighter, showery and windy regime becoming established by the weekend. The showers may turn wintry to some low levels in the north. Becoming rather cold, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. Into early next week, we start to see some uncertainty at this stage, with the chance of some persistent rain across some southern parts of the UK, where some snow could occur over the higher ground. Thereafter, we are likely to see a blocked pattern becoming established across the UK, with a greater chance of drier, colder and brighter weather for most. Temperatures mainly below the average, with increased risk of overnight frost....
On 12 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

1˚C at 7.30, rain driven along on a cold NW’ly wind, sometimes heavy, which went on all day with occasional bursts of sun illuminating the many coloured leaves still on our trees - some of our hazels are still entirely green - fabulous scene but feeling clammy in the wet & cold, max temp 5˚, down to 2˚ by 9pm.
On 12 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

met office 6- 30 day forecast starting to follow piers. If you haven't subscribed for winter, do so!
On 12 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Moobeeb week ahead tentatively suggesting cold block at the end of next week, but not sure about the synoptic situation causing it!! GFS going for frequent exchanges of milder-colder incursions with what would appear to be a high potential for snowfall in the northern hills.
On 11 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

2˚C at 7.30, frost only in sheltered places, clear bright start, less windy but still from the NW, so a sharp but sunny day with a max temp of only 5˚, dropping down to 2˚ again by 10pm. The breeze will likely keep the frost at bay except where it doesn’t blow, the nasturtiums in our veg tunnel have taken a hit though, dahlias all black, time to dig them out.
On 11 Nov 2017, Phil non sub Ipswich wrote:

The world is getting warmer, reports The Canary. Have a word with them Piers. https://www.thecanary.co/discovery/2017/11/10/world-getting-warmer-wilder-threatens-us/
On 11 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron the ignorance of these people still amazes me, so short sighted. Why is it some people believe that because the planet is now populated relatively heavily by Man, certain things shoud remain,at a constant and if they don't Man is to blame. It's like there was no planet earth before us to them.
On 11 Nov 2017, Rob wrote:

...Just read on Yahoo News, NASA have finally admitted that the: cracking, splintering and unusually rapid melting on the vast Western Antarctic ice-shelf is directly attributable to one or more 'Super Plumes' of immensely powerful geothermal heat activity, similar to those found around the tectonic plates on many ocean floors, and specifically like those found around the super volcano beneath Colorado...and, therefore, has very little, IF ANY, relevance to the study of so called man-made climate change !...Only 30 years late reaching your definitive conclusion, then, chaps!..As for me, I read about 'this' more than a decade ago in Bill Bryson's excellent 'Brief History of The World.'
On 11 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Stephen: Aye and another flip from the Mobeeb in the week-ahead forecast accordingly.
On 11 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Models now seeing cold from next week end, could be an interesting last couple of weeks.
On 10 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

3˚C at 7.30, another clear start with a fresh W’ly wind increasing in strength and turning into the NW, the first really cold day we’ve had so far, I would say. Mostly sunny, a few clouds in the afternoon giving one light shower, otherwise dry, 3˚ at 10pm under a clear starry sky.
On 10 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Yesterday some nice sunny breaks ending on drizzle, a little wet n windy overnight, clearer again this morning and pleasant for much of the day until after 3pm when drizzle moved on in again and for this eve. 7 deg at 10pm yellow rain warning up for a few counties on met.ie looks like a cold one in store Sun. Night.
On 10 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron I think those in the South of UK are going to be in for a big disappointment later this Month if Snow is what they are hoping for, regardless of what any model is showing.
On 10 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Really quite funny watching how quickly the Mobeeb week-ahead forecast changes and the disparity of options on offer. Well up to GFS variability!!
On 10 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

Snow well down below 600 metres and a nip in the air.. Looks like Sunday is going to be even nippier. Wonder if Mobeeb are underestimating the potential of snow on the northern edge of the front coming in from the west. GFS on another volte face with prediction of an easterly setting in 10 day period---expect more changes again.
On 10 Nov 2017, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:

Blustery today and the wind has been making it a bit chilly the last couple of days. Nothing unusual though. Bringing a few more leaves down. Current spotless run on the sun now 8 days bringing 2017 up to 76 days - 24%. Well over double last year and more than 2010 but 2009 stands at 260 days. No more years on spaceweather but would like to know what happened prior to 2009. Any northern commenters see the aurora the last few days? Considering the earthquake theory which talks of things electromagnetic does this connect with the solar wind triggering earthquakes? We know effects can be measured in the ground and there have been instances of pipeline damage caused by induced currents causing corrosion. Comments Piers?
On 10 Nov 2017, Fred wrote:

Piers My apologies for colourful language on previous post, but I was trying to really emphasise what’s happening and folks would do themselves a favour and treat to subscribe Regards Fred
On 09 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, clear and windy from the W, some sunshine every now and then, no rain, which is a bonus, max temp 8˚, wind abating, 3˚ at 10pm.
On 09 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

David; with GFS shifting away from such a cold stormy spell and the number of times Mobeeb have mentioned uncertainty, then I think you can relax a bit over your own predictions!
On 09 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Hi all - Craig glad you agree with me re North/South split, In regards to later next week looks like it will be cold and frosty to me especially England and Wales. No doubt foggy as well under high pressure. All in line with my Autumn prediction (watch it rain all week now) No point getting excited folks about northern blocking (negative AO) until it actually happens.
On 09 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

GFS predictions looking quite exciting 15-25th for snow conditions in the Highlands followed by a widespread thaw.
On 09 Nov 2017, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:

Monday morning saw a thick frost and phone showing 30F at 7.15am. Expecting more windscreen scraping on Tuesday after what started out a clear night, it was 50F at 7.15am. Earthquakes: reading institution mag on train this morning about quake early warning system GeoCosmo. This will use proton conductivity and the theory(?) that rocks contain dormant electronic charge carriers which can be activate by geological stress. When the charge carriers are activated they produce positive holes that produce identifiable signals such as ULF electromagnetic waves, air ionization, electron content anomalies, ozone, CO release, ground potential changes and thermal infrared anomalies. Detection of these will be used to provide earthquake forecasts. I also learnt that you can get GPS blockers, popular with car thieves and tracked delivery drivers, and that GPS can be spoofed to tell you that you are somewhere else.
On 09 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

Mobeeb, now going for the HP next week to be over NW France/ Belgium with somewhat milder westerlies setting in after quite a sharp polar maritime outbreak over the weekend.
On 09 Nov 2017, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:

Models are starting to show a cold 2nd half of november, so it seems all to play for. Not too cold here in South Herts, but seems so as we're not used to it, trees really shedding their leaves now, its time to bring in the Hosepipe reel, and lag the tap.,and top up the car anti freeze. Brace yourselves INCOMING !
On 08 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

Just thought I'd copy this over from the old blog from Fred Jesus H Christ.....yep cut it. But ECM Model.....Piers are you in "the control room? What a Nov we are in for Fred" - now do we go warm before cold as it's often the case and will that cause a meltdown of emotions ;) /// David I think you could be right re: South. Had a look at 50-51 as Joe B was tweeting about it (and 2010) as an analogue for eastern US. That was a cold winter both on east coast and in UK was quite a memorable snowy cold winter, one that lasted well into spring, however although the south did well certainly in Dec it was further north that the impacts lasted // Solar flux down to 69! 7 day stretch of no sunspots. Hope the sun doesn't crank up and ruin the blocking signs emerging.
On 08 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

0˚C at 7.30, frost not as hard as on Monday, clear moonlit start early on followed by a sunny morning until about 11 when cloud started moving in on a strengthening SW’ly wind, eventually bringing some light rain by late afternoon, 8˚ by 10pm.
On 08 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

-2 at 6 a.m first proper really widespread frost of this season clearing by 10 a.m ish milder by afternoon max 11 deg. 7 now at 10pm
On 08 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Hi Ron - just had a look at that video. Room for change yet but I can see that being about right for next week after a brief northerly plunge. Sun has been spotless for a week now. I believe this time next Year we will have had a calendar Year of around 60% spotless Days leading to harsh winter for the UK. This winter I think Scotland and Northern Ireland and far North of England will get some harsh wintry spells, however further South will generally by milder and have borderline snow/rain events. Apart from more prone higher ground obviously. Just my theory based on probable position/angle of jet stream.
On 08 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

GFS going for a cold snap 18th onwards.
On 08 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Ron, well aware of 1981/2 British records. We had nearly -20C in the Thames Valley and significant snow in early December. I wore my apres ski boots to school, which back in the day caused a bit of a stir.....
On 08 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

DAVID(Yorkshire) Philip Avery of Mobeeb now more certainly going into next week head with HP over SW/S UK and LP to the NW. Sounded quite chipper about it.
On 07 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Some heavy showers after midnight last night accompanied by wind, had cleared this morning giving a cold start of 3 deg. Parkier ( is that a word?!-) as the day went on, feeling raw bitter bleak teeth chattering, move around lots or become a manakin kinda weather day that screams at you to buy food and get stuff sorted and not get complacent to the fact that the previous winter or so has been a walk in the park. Despite the foreboding feeling poss heightened by hormones, there was plenty of blue sky & sunshine at times to feel cheery about with an almost haily shower thrown in for good measure on a couple of occassions. Cold one out tonight lovely starry sky and 1 deg at 11pm
On 07 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚C at 7.30, wet & mild with a fresh SW’ly wind, some heavy rain during the morning, drying up by midday, max temp 10˚, brighter afternoon but no sun, 2˚ at 9.30pm, frost most likely.
On 07 Nov 2017, Harris Keillar wrote:

Tried buying forecast - filled in details and then the screen froze
On 07 Nov 2017, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:

From the MetO website which was update this morning: UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 5 Dec 2017: There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as fronts move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of frosts /// Gav did a vid last night showing a few models picking up a blocked signal for end Nov into Dec for what that's worth. Looking at the anomaly charts heights do seem to be rising Scandi/Greenland and dropping over Europe but slight changes of position mean we could be in sweet spot or miss out circa Dec 12. Certainly a diff winter shaping up
On 07 Nov 2017, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:

DAVID; Mobeeb been mentioning uncertainty over position of HP/LP on their week- ahead forecast on their website for a couple of days now. RHYS: 1981-82 was one of the coldest winters on record with the all time record minimum for the UK recorded at Braemar. Here in Blair Atholl a temperature of -26C was recorded.
On 07 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

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On 06 Nov 2017, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Snow first week of November in the Alps down to 1000m in Switzerland and Austria. A similar date to the first snows in 1981, which is close to two 18.6 yr solar/lunar beats. 1981 the final snow total for the early November snow was near a metre, the first 24hrs of this event saw 15cm. Interesting to see how close if at all 2017/18 will be to 1981/2, which was one of the harder, longer winters in recent decades in Austria.....
On 06 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

-1˚C at 7.30, moonlit early morning & quite frosty, tulip pots & open ground hard, sun off & on during the morning, max temp 8˚, cloudy afternoon with a SW’ly wind picking up, temps beginning to rise by 5pm to 10˚ by 10pm, rain forecast for tomorrow.
On 06 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Cloud prevented any grass frost last night and made temp just a tad warmer than previous night. Some light drizzly showers at times today wind increasing late aft./early eve. Some heavier rain expected in a bit with temp dropping after. 10 deg. feeling like 7 at 21.45 pm
On 06 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Ron - When did BBC mention this? Not like them to discuss that far ahead.
On 06 Nov 2017, Ron Greer wrote:

Yes David( Yorkshire), a most interesting November forecast and much will depend on where the HP will be sitting. Mobeeb admitting some uncertainty, varying between right over us to out in the mid Atlantic--with all that implies for the weather outcome.
On 06 Nov 2017, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:

Interesting November forecast - I suspect in line with my thoughts on Autumn that high pressure will be over the UK and keep us drier. Everything a couple of hundred miles further East.
On 05 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

3˚ at 7.30, overnight showers, cold N’ly wind but soon brightening up to another sunny day, albeit a cold on as one would expect in November, max temp 6˚, clear evening with the just past it full moon, 0˚ at 10.30pm, frost on car roof. Amazing though how many green leaves there still are on many trees, haven’t seen that for a while at this time of year. Haven’t been out today, so couldn’t say if there’s any snow on our hills, will go looking tomorrow.
On 05 Nov 2017, Sou'wester (Cornish Border, sub) wrote:

Snow reported here too this afternoon in the Devonport area. Just tiny flakes hitting you in the wind, nothing sticking - yet.
On 05 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

first decent snow on the hills but haveseen it much more severe in the last 20 years with snow enough for sledging (just) on Bonfire Night. From the frequency of polar maritime out breaks on the GFS and the shortness of intervening warmer air looks it might be a good start for the ski season in the Highland--but we know what GFS can get up to!
On 05 Nov 2017, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:

Winter is creeping on in after a relatively mild halloween half term break, some lovely bootiful bright sunny blue sky days and cold nights with light grass frost, great view of the recent full moon, a tad breezy with wnw wind in the early hours and now this morn. 6 deg. feeling like 4 at 10 a.m fairly cold out here playing with bagging up lightings. At least 2 thirds of trees have lost all leaf now and scarfs and hats coming out of the drawers, lots of nesting going on & with 2 n a bit mths to go also need to find a coat or something that fits proper as resembling Mrs Claus at this point, gees for once i'm hoping no storms or snow early Jan!-)
On 05 Nov 2017, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:

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On 04 Nov 2017, Paddy, Aberdeen South wrote:

6˚ at 7.30, cloudy & feeling less cold, sun coming out after 8.30 and staying all day, max temp 8˚ in a light W’ly breeze, clear full moon evening, 2˚ at 10pm, frost on car roof. == Haven’t been able to upload my comments for days now, how many people have been deprived of my turgid prose? Probably = 0 :-)
On 04 Nov 2017, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:

How did you get that one through Rob?
On 04 Nov 2017, Rob wrote:

Your comments page is still down, chappie!