WA NewsNo 61 - 14th Sept 2009
Early September boost to Atlantic, Pacific and European storms confirms WeatherAction new 'extra power' forecasts
- Two Atlantic tropical storms, mud slides in South Norway and US severe thunder give green light to WeatherAction 'extra power' forecasting advances.
- Scope of world storm and tornado Long Range forecasts dramatically extended
- Early September trial forecasts 10/10 success
- WeatherAction warns of Mediterranean storm to come this Sept
- Ideas and development of SWT will be discussed at conference on October 28th
The late season boost of Atlantic tropical storms - Erika and Fred - in early September, dramatic mud slides in South Norway and severe thunderstorms in USA, all appearing at the dates predicted by WeatherAction, confirm Piers Corbyn's special trial forecasts issued 24th & 28th August and give the green light to WeatherAction's new 'extra power' forecasting technique - termed SWT25d(extra)
[Forecasts: See video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJg8haUm-sk Atlantic storms forecast also copied in Brit & Ireland 30 day Sept forecast via http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact8&fsize=0 - also this link for extreme events forecast regions]
WeatherAction extreme events forecasts scored 10/10 success rate for the first 9 days of September. This complete success included tropical storm Erika and hurricane Fred forming in the two WeatherAction new 'Extra' forecast time periods (2-4th & 7-9th) which (as explained in the printed forecast 28 Aug) involved a 'wider look at TS formation drivers and includes some otherwise thought to be low probability drivers' .
Simultaneous with these events it was also expected that some developments should occur in the East Pacific and West Tropical Pacific and that major thunderstorms or tornado developments in USA were likely in 7-9th Sept period.
In a related but time-shifted test major deluges were also predicted for 4/5th in South Norway - unless vetoed by a possible lunar effect, Piers Corbyn explained on the video.
ALL 10 events (3 Europe, 2 Atlantic, 2 East Pacific, 2 West Pacific and 1 USA severe thunder / tornado) were confirmed to a reasonable general or specific degree. "We got instant congratulations on www.WeatherAction.com when mud-slides hit South Norway consequent to the deluges we warned on the video" said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist and originator of WeatherAction's revolutionary Solar Weather Technique of long-range forecasting.
"These results are very significant. It means we can now more reliably make forecasts of events which we were hitherto less sure of. This extra forecasting power applies to anywhere in the world but is especially applicable to Atlantic Tropical storms, USA severe thunderstorms/ tornadoes and West European / Scandinavian storms.
"We are not yet in a position to make 'full-set' forecasts of extreme events for all parts of the world many months or years ahead but that is where we intend to go. It is fair to say that we are now close to 'full-set' forecasts for West European and Atlantic/Caribbean/ Gulf tropical storms and getting closer to 'full-set power' for the East Pacific and West Pacific Typhoons. USA tornado forecasts should be developable to close to 'full set' although the regional definition may take longer.
"Weather Action's Solar Weather Technique makes forecasts for what it deems as 'knowable' extreme events in defined SWT time periods and regions and does not forecast 'unknowable' events which might occur at other times or regions. 'Full-set' forecasts for a region or event type means we would have advanced to a stage where there are no 'unknowable' events. It means that in those circumstances all storm predictions should be confirmed and all storms which occur should be in the forecasted time periods. This does not mean a 'full-set' forecast would always be 100% confirmed but it does mean that there would be no periods for which we could not make a forecast. The SWT started as a technique for predicting in certain time periods it could define. It was not known then whether it could ever span all time periods. Now it seems it can - certainly for some types of events in certain regions many months ahead".
The simultaneous horrific extreme flood events around the world on 8th Sept which occurred in parallel with SWT predicted events were very significant and examples of events which were in known SWIPs - Solar Weather Impact Periods but in regions for which we are not yet able to know enough."
"There will be more important extreme events at known dates in the rest of September and I recently warned some members of the yachting community at Villefranche sur mer on the Cote D'Azur of a significant Mediterranean storm to come - See http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp for Extreme Events Europe and Med.
"The basic ideas behind the SWT and the developments in scope and power being achieved and expected for the world will be discussed at our special public conference on October 28th in London where we will also announce some extreme events forecasted for November" said Piers.
Details of the 10/10 Events:
Region I Brit / Ire / Europe
4/5 Sept
a) Floods in Brit/Ire = confirmed by East Scotland floods: (4th Sept) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8240070.stm Almost 500 homes in Moray were evacuated on Friday 4th Sept, after a month's rain fell in a single day; and a landslip a few days later (8th Sept): http://forargyll.com/2009/09/1230pm-8th-september-a83-closed-landslide-at-rest-be-thankful/ (presumably mainly from rain 4/5th but exacerbated by more rain on 8th in next severe event time period)
b) Torrential rain around 5/6/7th = confirmed - eg by landslides 50 yards wide & 30ft high in South Norway on 8th http://www.norwaypost.no/content/view/22451/
This system also penetrated North / West Poland
Storms and/or Tornadoes
(04-Sep-2009) Poland - Authorities say one person has died after storms and strong winds in western Poland tore down trees and ripped roofs off buildings. The storm hit on Thursday night and early on Friday on a front stretching from Poland's Baltic Sea coast in the north down to the Czech border in the south. The stiff winds and rain caused the greatest damage in Opole in Lower Silesia, where a tree fell on a car, crushing the vehicle and killing one person and injuring another. In the city of Malachin a local tornado blew roofs off several houses and damaged barns.
These Scotland and Norway events were part of the same developing weather system with forecasted consequences issued for both Britain & South (West) Norway
7/8/9 Sept Red Weather Warning period Forecast made for parts of Europe, not issued for elsewhere.
The Europe Extreme events for this period had also included N Germany & possibly N Poland. Interestingly such an event did take place in the immediately preceding time period.
General situation confirmed - note also developments in Black Sea / Istanbul at same time as Atlantic & Norway Sea on weathermap:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm
Storms in Norway on 8th/9th http://theforeigner.no/pages/news/heavy-storm-to-hit-norway/ re the forecasted deep low.
UK heavy rain sev gales in parts (63 mm in Perthshire 8th Sept) - confirming event forecasted for Britain (+ Europe Extreme events forecast) although it had been thought more likely further South:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_8245000/8245735.stm
ALSO - significant simultaneous events around the world on 8th Sept
Further storms in Norway on 8th/9th http://theforeigner.no/pages/news/heavy-storm-to-hit-norway/
ASTOUNDING FLOODS IN TURKEY 8th Sept - Flash floods slam Turkey, trap hundreds
Death toll in Istanbul and northwest stands at 31; 14 missing
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32812412/ns/world_news-europe/
south american storm 8Sept
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8245351.stm
Floods in Cambodia 8 Sept
http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1051644&lang=eng_news&cate_img=logo_world&cate_rss=WORLD_eng
Region 1VA Atlantic / carrib / Gulf
2-4 Sept TD/TS warning confirmed - TS Erika see http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/index.html
7-9 Sept TD/TS warning confirmed - Hurr Fred : http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/index.html
Forecasted parallel event possibilities to these Atlantic windows either / both of 2-4 & 7-9 were indicated for:
IVB East pacific - 2-4 & 7-9 - both confirmed
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2009/index.html
2/3 JIMENA slow to dissipate even though approaching land ( prob other developments too)
7-12 Hurr Linda
IVC US Major thunderstorm tornado trial forecast - 7-9th = confirmed
Severe thunderstorm watch 737 & hail warning 8th sept http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0737.html
III West Pacific - 2-4 and 7-9 - both Confirmed
3-4 Typhoon Dujajuan 9-12 TD Mujiga
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2009/index.html
Other Information
4th September 2009 WeatherAction News No 60
Climate Realist - Piers Corbyn on BBC Radio 4 - with a limerick!!
Remnants of Hurricane Bill strike Britain & Ireland in PERFECT FIT with WeatherAction's long range forecast! How can that be? says Piers Corbyn from WeatherAction.Com ( http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3929&linkbox=true )
WeatherAction extreme events forecasts - New Service - for 4 regions of the world are available via Purchase forecasts button at www.WeatherAction.com
16th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 55
"It's the Sun!" - 'Many hurricanes' in modern times - "Latest BBC /Nature report is more BBC Global Warming hype and cover-up" says astrophysicist.
16th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 54
WeatherAction advances Storm forecasts: August storms success in Pacific and Atlantic - Mid August Report
9th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 52
Typhoon Morakot thrashes Taiwan in line with WeatherAction EndGame forecast. Extreme events worldwide well confirm forecasts for 4-6 August Solar Weather Impact Period
6th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 51
WeatherAction World long range Extremes Events Forecasts - New service launched
10th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 53
Met Office bashed over bonuses for trickery & failure! Piers Corbyn writes to Lord Peter Mandelson acting Prime Minister: "The MetOffice long range & Climate operation should be called to account & put-out to tender".
23rd July 2009 WeatherAction News No 47= http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=67&c=1 WeatherAction News 2009 No 47 What Does & Does Not Cause Climate Change and the threat to integrity in science - New PowerPoint Presentation
Piers Corbyn Quotes Piers Corbyn Computer modelling for weather forecasting, and indeed for climate forecasting, has reached its limits.