Comments from Piers
WeatherAction => www.WeatherAction.com email: Piers@WeatherAction.com The LongRange Forecasters Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
+44(0)2079399946 +44(0)7958713320 http://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn
WELCOME to WeatherAction.com Weather, Climate & All That blog page
Well Done! Congrats* flood in to WeatherAction ON our superb 100d ahead forecast of UK super heat ~13th and the follow-on massive thunderfloods breakdown 14-17th (+-1d) R4 period (@piers_corbyn twitter) which also saw amazing Tropical storm developments including the awesome power-up of Super Typhoon Meranti hitting Taiwan.
Piers Corbyn says "We are very pleased with these results. The extremities and timing of these events were obtained via WeatherAction's Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique SLAT13a and we expect SLAT13a will further increase average skill in all forecasts both sides of the Atlantic which can now be made with greater confidence 12m ahead. These forecasts can be of fantastic usage to many businesses including insurers and transport operators including the rail network which suffered floods and landslips in our warned period 14-17th Sept. Anyone in touch with decision makers on these matters is welcome to pass on this comment and urge them to get in touch”
Brilliant Success of WeatherAction TopRed, R5, Sep 1-4+/-1d
Sept 1st the predicted R5 period started with Brilliant confirmations of all basic warnings
- Major Earth-Facing Coronal Holes
- Major increases in Geomagnetic Activity - reaching K6
- A Major earthquake (off New Zealand) M7.1 confirming WeatherAction #Quake trials
- Notable powering-Up of TropicalStorm / Hurricane #Hermine when it became MORE organised and MORE Powerful as it approches Florida coast, rather than weakening which is the normal expectation vid: https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/771420213132795904
Hot News 28-31 August / 1 Sept
RED WARNING FOR START SEPT!
SEPT 1-4th+/-1d is a TOP RED R5 period. This means SE USA Tropical Storm 9 which became #Hermine and ex-Hurricane #Gaston in Atlantic and other major wind, rain, tornado events in the world in this period will power-up beyond expecations of standard short range forecasts.
Current Comments 22...26 Aug BI Eu USA World
(22/23Aug) The Top Red R5 period 18-21 Aug saw a major upping of solar/solar-wind activity (eg solar wind speeds to 450m/s and high densities) and many extreme weather events worldwide including an amazing eight Tropical** Storm formations &/or power-ups!
In Europe and Britain+Ireland the attacking Low pressures from the Atlantic advanced East and gave a major thundery breakdown. This was as in the original 110day ahead forecast and not as ammended in SLAT13 (issued late July) where more blocking was expected. We conclude that during this R5 period SLAT13 gave an 'over-correction' and will take this into account in future forecasts (Slat13a). Slat13 rules appear to be holding for the rest of August.
Present Heat Britain and Ireland not expected in current WeatherAction forecast but error points to new forecast advances - "Mixed weather states" - says Piers Corbyn
"Although in general terms this hot weather confirms our WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique SLAT12c and Slat12cs Wild-Jet-Stream warnings for Summer and July up to now confirms our WeatherAction Slat 12cs forecast these few hot days were not expected.
"The good news is that the alternative Slat 12c procedure could produce this warmth at this time so what we are seeing is a period of 'mixed weather states' whereby the world Jet-Stream-circulation pattern is flipping between one set of possibilities and (an)other(s). We now have some clues into when to flip.
The impending thundery breakdown during our predicted RedWeather R3 period ~20-23 July looks on cue under either set of weather states"
The implications for August are that the month will likely be less different from the original SLAT12c forecast than it might otherwise have been (final forecast immminent)" - says Piers.
27 28 29 Aug - 1 Sept
End August well forecast both sides of Atlantic
Br+Ir holiday weekend forecast went well from 100d ahead
Intense thunderstorm events Minnesota North USA and in Germany / West Poland confirmed forecast maps - see twitter feed and pdf / image below.
Bank holiday Monday 29th was mostly fine over Br+Ir especially S/E as WeatherAction long range forecast stated 100days ahead.
25 Aug The major Earthquakes Myanmar and Italy and tornado swarm USA were preceeded by major geomagnetic activity in line WeatherAction's solar driver theory (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique)
25 Aug to month end S/E England looks set to get ongoing heatwave/hotspell conditions with some thunder while North & West parts are often wet and cool.
This well confirms WeatherAction LongRange forecast.
This month, August, is now (from 22nd of current month onwards) free so if you subscribe now your sub counts from Sept which loads end Aug. New subscribers get an extra month at no charge of any sub.
Temperatures topped 30C Aug23 and higher 24th in many parts of S/E England http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=daily;type=maxt;sess= This confirms WeatherAction's LongRange forecast for continuing significant hotspell - heatwave conditions in Britain and Europe in a pressure pattern which well matches WeatherAction Eu forecast.
The August heatwaves / hotspells in Britain & Ireland were predicted 100 days ahead by WeatherAction.com - long range forecasters directed by Piers Corbyn*
"We are very pleased with this Heatwave/HotSpell in Britain, Ireland and Europe", said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist and Director of WeatherAction.com, "There have already been wildfires where we warned in Europe - eg Marseille area South France. Standard computer forecasts had flip-flopped between hot and cool options for Britain & Ireland for a week before coming round to our view 5 days ahead of the event. The heatwave is likely to turn out hotter and continue longer than TV forecasts will expect. To find out more about the rest of August and what's happening in Britain, Ireland or around the world in coming months see our detailed forecasts. Anyone who's thinking about BBQ's this August or Autumn, holidays or harvesting and gardening issues really does need to Subscribe without delay!"
*brother of Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Comment issued 17-18 Aug on 13-18 Aug Br+Ir
- Heatwaves / hotspells (13-18Aug) hit Europe and Britain+Ireland confirm key aspects of WeatherAction 100d ahead forecast.
- Delay in breakdown expectations of standard TV forecasts in period 13-18 Aug confirms WeatherAction forecast.
Piers Corbyn (Thur18th/ Wed17th) said: "We've had a lot of congratulations on forecasting the general B+I+Europe heatwave / hotspell circulation - see pdf-image below. The heat and wildfires in (eg) France have been confirmed (see below). Britain and Ireland have been very warm or hot in parts but very high temperatures have been limited to the near continent and not been reached in Britain/Ireland because of slightly more E'ly flow.
Our warning that the Low attack would be postponed (or not happen) has been comfirmed so far by its delay for at least a few days - which is significant and interesting - in line with SLAT13 options. Now it appears a breakdown or partial breakdown of BI-Eu high pressure block and heat is coming in our TopRed Solar-weather R5 action period 18-21Aug. This will coincide with very extreme events worldwide.
Interestingly this extended R3 then R5 period was preceded by unusual SpaceLightning Aug13th (pic in Weather blog). There's plenty more interesting weather to come in the rest of August.
"Stunning success!" say families, farmers, BBQ-hopers and all users as Medium range computer forecasts finally agree (~Aug 12th) heatwave(s) Br+Ir as predicted by WeatherAction 100days ahead.
Piers Corbyn said (Aug1) : "The new August Br+Ir forecast has some changes from 110d (Slat 12c). Journalists or individuals who have received comments based on that 110d ahead forecast some time ago should NOT assume they still hold and not expect any detail in particular until they have seen the 45d /30d Slat 13.
Superb confirmation of aurora, geomagnetic activity and Hurricane #earl
intensification ~3 Aug in WeatherAction R3 period Aug 1-5th
See twitter feed @Piers_Corbyn and pics:
"In terms of extremes this August is the most significant individual summer month for at least 4 years in Britain and Ireland - and probably across the world - and anyone serious about the weather is strongly advised to take subscribe.
"The reasons for the extreme weather this August - which is being superbly confirmed, eg, in WeatherActions Red R3 period 1-5Aug (see Twitter feed) - are nothing to do with the bogey of so-called man-made Climate-Change but entirely solar-lunar in origin.
|Comments submitted - 213||Add your comment|
On 28 Oct 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS If you are here note there is now a NEW oct28 onwards blog and if you are frrom USA Go Get Nov 8 forecast available NOW only $5 = £4, when you subscribe to USA 30d Do it and pass on
On 27 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, overcast but dry & mild, which is how it stayed all day bar a couple of slightly sunny interludes, S’ly breeze of varying strength, max temp 13 ˚, warm enough to get the midges out in our sheltered garden, doesn’t often happen in October. Glad though that we haven’t had any major frost yet, does prolong the mild period called summer up here. 10˚ at 9pm.
On 27 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Noting the speed and strength of the solar wind had me wonder why there hadn't been any earthquakes. And on cue comes the Italian earthquakes. The days are still not that cold and a good fire is keeping the CH off at the moment. Clear sky and then thick grey murk come the morning. In London the tallest buildings were still in the mist as I arrived. But it has cleared as it did yesterday and the sun is out. Probably the same again tomorrow.
On 27 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some rain overnight on the 25th, a cloudy dry start to the 26th, milder as the day went on with some drizzle in the afternoon. Max 14 deg stayed fairly mild overnight compared to recently, 10 deg at 7.30 a.m
On 26 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, clear & dry start with stars & moon visible earlier on, somewhat cloudy morning but much brighter afternoon with a strong S’ly breeze, max temp 14˚ but feeling much warmer in the sun, much appreciated, cloudy at 10pm with 6˚.
On 26 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
After a grey start the sun has come through. Last evening passing along the same road within 20mins or less, mist had appeared on the return journey. There is quite some solar wind blowing and there is a continuing slow drip of sunspots to keep the disc from being blank. Radio sun is staying well down.
On 26 Oct 2016, John Blakely wrote:
Anyone know if the R4 has made the fog thicker this morning. Can't remember a fog like this before A real pea souper!!
On 26 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
It was a wild night last http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/85733796/chance-of-thunderstorms-and-hail-for-top-of-the-south. Here in Motueka the storm eased about 1.30 am and amazingly there was no damage outside this morning. No sign yet of the predicted thunder and hail but anything's possible during this R4 period.
On 25 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, no frost, cloudy start but dry, then brightening up into a splendidly sunny day, a real gift with a max temp of 10˚, warm in the sun but really chilly in the shade, warranting jacket, scarf & hat while tying up rasps. Amazing how rapidly the light changes at this time of year, gives the impression that we’ve moved from summer to winter without transition, it’s the opposite effect in February when it rapidly gets lighter. 8˚ at 8.30pm and feeling mild.
On 25 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Good weather for the 6 days since my last post, dry with some nice sunshine at times, even some blue sky too, some big clouds at times and of course grey in there as well, cool breeze keeping temp down around 10/11 deg by day 4/5 overnight so fire lighting has been more often this last week by evening. Working hard outside making the most of dry days, looks like some milder days on the cards for another wee while before a change to cold I'm hoping :)
On 24 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, another showery day from the start but with nice sunshine in between and with the changing of the leaves into breathtaking hues it makes bearing the loss of summer all the more bearable. Max temp 10˚, clear starlit sky late evening, 5˚ at 10pm.
On 24 Oct 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//thenk goodness for the rain yesterday back to dry and sunny I could get upset to this
On 24 Oct 2016, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Ron I think pure solar predictions are also a bit simplistic, oceanic parameters introduce another layer of complexity and how they link to solar history I don't know if anyone truly knows yet. If AMO goes starkly negative, solar cycle 25 is weak and still no declines occur, rethink is needed. I'd like to know if anyone has managed any models based on Fourier time series and whether they can fit any data that way. Also whether effects of big planets informs longer term trends.....
On 24 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Not changed the duvet yet Paddy - upgraded the PJs instead at the moment. Talking of east winds, Gatwick switched patterns and yesterday there was a quite biting east wind such that unless you were active a t-shirt and sweatshirt were not enough. Continuing with the generally dry weather. Odd spit in the wind this morning. Good news that if Donald is president in the first 100 days he will stop funding the UN climate bunch. And open up the energy market to get the jobs rolling in. Opportunity for windmill removers perhaps as that could finish them. Right, need to clear storage space for some 2016 vintage wine.
On 24 Oct 2016, @piers_Corbyn wrote:
NEWS NEWS NEWS: Now we are a bit nearer to Winter the JAN+FEB ALL WINTER ADD-ON IS REDUCED TO £70 and THE WHOLE WINTER DEC+JAN+FEB IS £130. Both include All updates. Niether include Oct+Nov which do come in 100d, 75d etc forecast services when getting access to parts of Winter. See home page for latest info.
On 24 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
C VIEW: yes saw that on FB and I'm a member of the Snow patches Scotland group. I see GFS are coming round to Piers' way of thinking for Guy Fawkes Night weather, but bearing in mind their success rate at this distance, I hope it does not put the kybosh on Piers forecast!
On 23 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, a very showery day in an E-SSE’ly breeze with some very heavy downpours, even deluges, max temp 8˚, back down to 5˚ by 9.30pm, typical autumn day of the wet variety.
On 23 Oct 2016, @piers_corbyn wrote:
Interesting comments all. Bordeaux wine EastSide i didnt know that. ALL SEE HOME PAGE, ALL WINTER MONTHS NOW LOADED IN B+I ALL WINTER NOW. If you already have DEC or DEC+JAN you can get the rest in the BI WINTER ADD ON for £80 and get any overlap extensions at no charge. Do it and pass it on thanks.
On 23 Oct 2016, C View wrote:
Ron. You commented on the recent light snow fall on the Cairngorms. Cairngorm Mountain have posted a pice on their website about a season ticket holder who has just completed her 84th month of consecutive skiing in the Cairngorms ....that's 7 years!!!!
On 23 Oct 2016, east side wrote:
Interesting to note here. climactic conditions became ideal in Bordeaux this year, after the wet spring. As a result of the late heat with more or less perfect rain profile during maturation, 2016 is forecast to be the Millesime of the century for Bordeaux wine, St Emillion, Pauillac, very high quality yield etc etc. A year to remember.
On 22 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy and showery, E’ly breeze bringing in the showers off the sea but not very far inland. Though I’m not over fond of E’ly régimes, they can bring some interesting clouds like today, including rainbows, when we had the odd bit of sun. Max temp 11˚, some heavy showers this evening, 6˚ at 11pm. == Gerry, my warmer working jacket has come out of storage about a week ago, but that being said it is not as cold yet as we’ve seen in other years at this time, nasturtiums in the garden are still intact, they’re a good indicator of frost.
On 22 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
First fire of the season last night. Keeps the chill away and the CH off. My study has a small portable gas fire that brings that up a treat. Generally dry and sunny with a breeze has been the norm. Clear sky last night so mist lasting well into the morning. Change of coat needed to a warmer one and looking at - or more correctly for - my 4.5 tog duvet to upgrade from the Summer 3.5.
On 21 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast & still, so not feeling cold, mostly cloudy but with more sun than yesterday, max temp 11˚, half clear sky in the evening, 6˚ at 10.30pm.
On 21 Oct 2016, Mark wrote:
Just been looking at "The Cryosphere Today" webpage and its amazing how much ice had grown this year in the Arctic. Is this why Scotland temperatures have been a lot lower on average throughout the year than the rest of the UK. Jet Stream swinging south more and more along with a cooler Arctic all caused by a weakening of the Sun.
On 21 Oct 2016, Mark wrote:
Ron, first time ive got a forecast, i usually try to work it out from what the comments are about. I am self employed so i need to know if i need to purchase a cheep 4x4 for winter so i can make it to work and keep customers happy.
On 21 Oct 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
HELLO ALL. Thanks for Comms. In case you havnt noticed LOOK NOW HOME PAGE! EARLY BIRD ALL WINTER (NOW) £100 - goes to £200 on 22nd. Hurry hurry and pass-on. Usual full extensions for overlaps apply. Thanks Piers
On 21 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
MARK: yes I'm a 100 day subscriber too. I'm busy stockpiling winter fuel. Having quite a ding dong on FB at times regarding the longer term predictions at the planetary level. The warmist predictions to date have often come off the rails, but if the 'solar-coolists' cannot demonstrate a marked decline by 2020, then their model loses credibility too.
On 21 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
An interesting weather week for NZ. We've had temperatures in the low to mid 20s then a swing to a cold southerly with snow further south and this in a quiet R period.
On 20 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, dry and cloudy, not feeling too cold, nice autumn day with a max temp of 12˚, still all day under the HP system, 8˚ by 10pm.
On 20 Oct 2016, Mark wrote:
Hi all, just got my 100 day forecast, December is going to be exciting. Great work Piers as usuall.
On 19 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, bright start after a bright moonlig night (alright then, a bricht moonlicht nicht), brightish morning, sharp N’ly breeze, 12˚ max, and when the clouds arrived en mass in the afternoon the temperature dropped sharply even though it was still 10˚. Wind dropped by evening, 9˚ at 10pm.
On 19 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mostly cloudy but at least dry today for our eldest to join the student protest in Dublin with her college re poss. increase in college/uni fees and oppose and protest against the govs option on the table for replacing student grants with loans. A cool 5 deg start with a Max temp 11 deg
On 19 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
First real snowfall on Cairngorms and other higher hills, but not exceptional by the standards of 1980, 1981 and 1992 Octobers. Advanced autumn here now with great tree colours, though some trees now bare. If I remember, correctly 1965-1966 was a severe winter in Europe, but we didn't get any real chill until April. Thing is if you stockpile wood/coal etc it's there if you need it and you buy it before the post Brexit austerity kicks in.
On 19 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Pleasant weather continuing. Cool and dropping off in the evening to the extent of looking towards the fire and lighting one. Interesting forecast for November. If the forecast for a really cold European winter comes to pass and we escape, we may still get hit in our pockets if wholesale gas prices increase due to European demand. As we have neglected our storage we will need to keep buying. More diesels have been added to the STOR to keep our lights on at huge cost should we get calm cold conditions that stretch our resources.
On 18 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, wet start, rain continuing to the end of the morning, somewhat brighter conditions for the afternoon, max temp a mere 10˚, light winds from the W & NW, feeling decidedly cooler, summer definitely gone now, 8˚ at 9pm. == Maria Somerset, the Indian summer has been further south, forecast was not as accurate for us as for you but at least we’ve not had any serious frost to date and that is a bonus.
On 18 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some nice sunshine today and less cloud about, feeling cool with a max of 10/11 deg. The smell of peat turf fires in the air this eve. A good indication that late autumn is fast approaching here in Ireland. Temp looks like dipping tonight under clear sky giving the chance of frost, no evidence but I've got a feeling we'll see more colder spells this winter.
On 18 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
It was mentioned that £97m of taxpayers' money would be wasted on a supercomputer for the MetO back in 2014. I presume it has now been delivered to enable the MetO to produce rubbish much quicker.
On 18 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
just heard a comment on Radio Scotland this morning, that the Met Office has just got a new £100 million computer that can predict the weather a year in advance. Since it's not April 1, has anyone else got the low-down on this?
On 18 Oct 2016, maria 45 day somerset wrote:
I am amazed at the accuracy of the 30d october forecast. 100% down here. It has been hot/warm day after day with hardly any rain, just a small shower yesterday and then the window solar blinds came down again. The low sun is warming my house up beautifully. Acers are bright red, the brightest I have ever seen them
On 17 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, breezy from S, dry & mild. Cloudy morning, sunny kind of afternoon with a max temp of 13˚ somewhat cooler by evening, 7˚ at 9pm. Colder weather looks likely tomorrow.
On 17 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Yesterday evening also saw the shortest thunderstorm ever. One clap of thunder and a minute of heavy rain and that was it. Misty start with a bright moon this morning and generally sunny. Some showers around and one is just passing now to blot out the setting sun.
On 17 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Friday was mainly a nice day but as the afternoon came to an end there was increasing cloud and some drizzle. Not a cold night. More cloud on Saturday bringing a spell of light rain and then late afternoon a heavier period of rain that lasted into the evening and brought racing to an early end at Brands Hatch due to fading light. Bursts of rain at first on Sunday morning but then clearing as forecast to give a breezy day of sunny spells and good day of racing to end the UK season. Not too cold for camping. A couple of years back I was at Weston around the same time of year and there was ice on the tent. Forecast drifted off for this weekend as a low pressure system made it through.
On 16 Oct 2016, Richard.T wrote:
I will try again ,after Septembers great forecast 80% correct in my opinion ,October up to the 16th has not gone according to plan ,is there a reason for this Piers ?,we still have 15 days to go to balance the books though. Richard.T yearly subs.
On 16 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, feeling mild & not raining and staying dry until mid afternoon when the heavens opened for a couple of hours. Max temp 12˚ and winds from the SSE, dry again in the evening with the not quite full anymore moon appearing through the clouds, 10˚ at 8pm. The relative mildness is a redeeming feature of this present wet spell, perhaps an Indian Autumn?
On 16 Oct 2016, Richard.T wrote:
Yearly subsc Hi looks like this month we have deviated from the forecast of the first 15 days the next few days could be back on track is any of the other older forecasts on track or new ones Piers example 13 or 12c or 13b,its a shame as September was around 80% correct still there is 15 days left you never know :)
On 16 Oct 2016, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Temps have been up and down like a jack in a box. Lots of rain. Still looking for that door to be opened letting the arctic visit Britain. Heartily sick of mild winters....snow needed!!
On 16 Oct 2016, Steve Dorset UK. Sub wrote:
From Dorset about 14 miles inland from the channel...Every year about this time people get all excited that they may be able to make a snowman and the winter will be dire well it may be just like last year and be a nice mild one, we will have to wait and see, heavy rain and a short burst of wind this morning about 6 am nice sunshine now 9.30 typical autumnal weather. Enjoy.
On 16 Oct 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
HI ALL! Great Comms and information! I hope youve noticed the notable Solar-Geomagnetic activity success of the latest R4 period 11-14Oct with a dramatic Earth facing coronal hole, associated fast electrons, a sudden increase in sun-Earth magnetic connectivity (negative Bz) and a big uptick in geomagnetic activity; associated weather - torrentail rain and storm uptaicks. === LATEST OFFERS: The current BIG OFFER which is having some success on getting more on board ENDS TUE 18th (ie 18/19th USA Pacific time) whern prices will go up. Pass it on or/and di it yourself! Thanks
On 15 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, wet and very wet all day with heavy downpours in the strong SSE’ly wind, but at least it wasn’t very cold with the temperature hovering around 10˚ all day. Calmer and not raining any more by 9pm, 11˚. I’m amazed at your 20˚, Maria Somerset, a distant summer dream to us up here!
On 15 Oct 2016, maria 45 day somerset wrote:
You lot are scaring the heck out of me, well not really scaring but making me think again about preps for severe winter. I single handedly manhandled 3/4 tonne of wood pellet bags into store, so feel pretty snug, except that my all dancing pellet stove needs electricity as do all cooking apliances. No gas here. Tomorrow I will go check my emergency supply of gaz canisters for my little portable gaz ring. Eco house here so I can keep a single room warm with a candle, if needs must. Right now at 5.30 pm, outside temperature is 11, humidity 85% and pressure 1005, wind is 0. Has been another lovely sunny day with a max of 20
On 15 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some hefty showers between last post and now to coincide with Piers R4 accurately forecasted period, yellow weather warning yesterday for some parts. Temp on the cool side of 11-13 deg by day around 6-7 by night. Some nice sunshine this morning after overnight rain with some big clouds moving back in now at lunch time. A cool 8 deg at 1.25 pm.
On 15 Oct 2016, M Lewis (75 day subs - just purchased the fab offer) wrote:
I must comment on Mark Hall's observations. Readers should note that both NASA and ESA are forecasting dust storms for Mars; plus the ESA probe and its Schiaparelli lander arrive this coming Wednesday. Purrfect timing! Question is what is causing the dust storms on Mars and will they go global and lead to the cooling of the planet or warming of it? Now moving across to our Planet Earth, what can we expect in the coming weeks across the Northern hemisphere - possibly the start of a mini Ice Age? Over to you Piers!
On 14 Oct 2016, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Where is the snow? Possible cold snap/arctic blast towards end of the month mentioned in a few places...the shape of things to come I hope! Blizzards and deep deep snow for Hull and the East Coast would be fab!!
On 14 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, strong E’ly breeze & rain off & on all day, sometimes very heavy, temps staying level, breaks in the cloud by evening, moon & some stars visible, 9˚ by 9pm. == East Side, we were in Hérault in Sept last year just a couple of weeks after they’d had their flash floods, we saw the devastation. Hard on them as they often are at the meeting point of cold air from the Cévennes and warm air from the Mediterranean, they call this sort of occurrence an épisode cévénole, i.e. nothing to do with AGW.
On 14 Oct 2016, Mark Hall (Herts, UK) wrote:
Rhys, The late Timo Niroma did a wonderful study a few years back. He showed that the conjunction of the inner planets and Jupiter cause peaks in the solar cycle. Also that Jupiter's perihelion coincides with fewer sunspots ( next perihelion is January 2023). Jupiter is the key and its 12 year orbit correlates approximately with the sunspot cycle. Some people think that periods when the 4 gas giants line up on one side of the solar system are when major cooling occurs. This is logical as it would be an accentuation of the distortion caused by perihelion. They are lining up right now! Timo who Piers rates very highly sounded like a lovely fellow ....warm and engaging.
On 14 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Major hailstorm in Motueka this afternoon http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/85330282/nelson-region-soaked-by-heavy-rain. We only had brief hail but other parts of Motueka had much heavier hail as seen in the link. We are a big apple producing region and orchardists have been hit by hail for the last two years. Now its kiwifruit.
On 13 Oct 2016, Mark Hall (Herts, UK) wrote:
Rhys Time Niroma did an excellent study a few years ago. He found that the conjunction of the inner planets with Jupiter's orbit causes peaks in the solar cycle. Also that Jupiter's perihelion coincides with fewer sunspots. Jupiter is the key ( it's 12 year orbit correlates with the sunspot cycle). Some people think that the periods when the gas giants congregate on the same side of the solar system is when major cooling occurs. Piers rates Niroma highly. He is dead now, but he sounded like a lovely fellow ....his style was warm and welcoming.
On 13 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, dry start, cloudy & breezy from the E, showers starting up soon enough and lasting the whole day with almost zero sunshine, max temp 12˚, rain really getting going by early evening with occasional tropical type downpours, haven’t had rain like this for about two months. 10˚ at 10pm, feeling mild.
On 13 Oct 2016, east side wrote:
V interesting situation in S France today. A vicious mediterranean storm, has hit the coast near SETE on what is already waterlogged ground. It happens at EXACTLY the time a CME hits earth provoking a KP6+ storm, Hemispheric power 100g with heavy auroral activity over the whole N hemisphere. If Piers is right, this kind of scenario invites a powering up of the intense storm activity with flash floods & a real natural disaster during the night of 13-14th October. "Météo FR has placed the Hérault dept in southern France on red alert - the highest alert level - warning of "exceptional rainfall". It urged residents not to travel about anywhere inside the department. Some areas in western Hérault have already been hit by 150 mm of rainfall & winds of up to 110 km/hr... Hérault is expected to get another 200 mm of rainfall before Thursday..intense periods expected to bring up to 100 mm in just a few hrs. The memorial ceremony in Nice to the terrorist attacks is put back a day.
On 13 Oct 2016, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry Joe Bastardi used to work at Accuweather but left a few years ago to set up his own firm. No understanding as to why he left. Piers - there is a paper cited at WUWT claiming that the solar cycle is driven by the larger planets in the solar system. Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune etc. Do you have any views on that?
On 13 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Started off with some shower and cloud this morning. Less chilly than some mornings. Now into the afternoon the sun is out again. So similar pattern to last few days. A colleague who ventured out said that the wind was really cold. need windproof layers for Brands Hatch this weekend. Ron - of course we don't need to have lots of snow over the winter, just lots of cold. It was the lingering cold into April that saw gas use remain high and brought our limited stock to near exhaustion. We have very little storage capacity and don't get the amount we need from the North Sea anymore. Move this weather on a month and we would all be using our heating.
On 13 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY: yup, stocking up with fuel. The 2009 and 2010 experience is still etched in my mind and I'm going to open another old fireplace in the spare room. Got the forecasts of course, but also got a 'bad feeling' about this one.
On 12 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, wet start and wet day, mostly showers brought in on the E’ly wind with some dry spells in between. The hoped for Indian summer has done a runner on us up here, max temp 12˚, down to 9˚ at 10pm.
On 12 Oct 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
It looks like this weekend will follow Piers 45D forecast closer than his 30Dand the same for early next week, but there again this is GFS and they are usually wrong!
On 12 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Not heard that snow has fallen in the Vosges and the Black Forest. They don't have the height of the Alps so more noteworthy. It would seem that Robert at Iceagenow was repeating an error in his source that had Joe Bastardi as working at Accuweather. I could still find no corroboration the he did make that claim. Ordered up a supply of coal in case though. After all, no CH if the power goes off. And we might run out of gas like we nearly did in 2010. Who knows if the EU and US might upset Putin enough for him to strike back by closing the gas taps in mid-winter. Somerset is obviously much warmer than London and the south-east. There is a distinct wind chill going on as the easterly flow is still in place.
On 12 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was a chilly 5 deg start and the kids were happy to wear a coat and hat while we played football waiting for the school bus, a fairly bright day but remained on the cool side all day with the E'ly breeze. Max 11 deg Fire lit last night to warm the house up a bit. A chilly 8 deg at 11 a.m today some showers to start but a mix of cloud & sun now at 11.30 a.m
On 12 Oct 2016, Matt Havicon, Rīgā wrote:
I can vouch for what Eastside is saying about the cold Oct in Eastern Europe. It's almost like there's been no autumn. A quick flip from summer to winter. Overnight frosts have started already and daytime temps a chilly 5-6 degrees here in Rīgā, several degrees below normal.
On 12 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Contrasts in NZ today https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/video-power-still-dozens-in-central-otago-after-heavy-snow. In the North Island temperatures on the East coast in the mid 20s. Good spring weather for this R period.
On 11 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, damp & overcast but somewhat milder and less windy than yesterday, still very much from the E, courtesy of the Scandinavian High, which is also feeding showers in off the N Sea, especially tonight. 14˚ max temp, sun breaking through every now and then and noticeably warming the air for short periods. According the the donkey tail watchers at the MO (more likely their computers) we’re going to get quite a bit of rain over the next few day. 9˚ at 9pm. == Maria, in the present pressure scenario you clearly have the advantage, probably getting warm air fed to you from the LP SW of Ireland along with the sunshine, while we’re getting all the damp. It has also been very dry with us for the last 8 weeks or so.
On 11 Oct 2016, east side wrote:
We're already into the start of a sudden & unusually cold autumn. The drop was quite brutal from 27C summer temps to 7-15C, then frost at night all in about 10 days. I have travelled across the whole of E Europe in the last 2 weeks & it's the same story everywhere. In Baltic states, leaf colour changed drastically some weeks ago & it's cold & wet. The cold north easterly wind has been blowing across Poland from the Finnish/Russian Murmansk peninsula for weeks, making for freezing daytime temps. Idem Germany & France. Now starts the snow, with heavy snow forecast in Ural this week, already snow in Vosges, Black Forest, & the alps last weekend. A light dusting of snow in Ural is usually around 20-25 October. This year it's 2 weeks early with up to 20-30cm forecast. It's strongly possible with the sharp drop off in solar activity, this is the beginning of the 2017> big freeze. I don't think it's false warnings. A failed harvest in France was the big marker event of 2016.
On 11 Oct 2016, maria 45 day somerset wrote:
3pm and it is 28 degrees outside my bedroom window, sunny the whole day again and has been very dry, soil and plants are wilting. Humidity in that place is 36. This morning at 7 am it was 3 degrees. Two sokar panels are keeping my tank at 58 degrees. 13 butternut squash on one plant, I have removed 7. The others are growing like no-ones business. I will be amazed if they ripen in october but never say never if the frost stays away and the sun continues
On 11 Oct 2016, Mike wrote:
Gerry. Never said Joe was not reliable. I have followed Joe for over 10 years. From when he did work for AccWeather. And now that he works WeatherBell. What I said was: When a source using somebody's name, and are unable to correctly say who they work for. Then that's a worry. When Joe worked for AccWeather. He would regularly do a european blog. Where he give his thoughts on the upcoming winter, on a weekly basis. Joe is not allowed to do that anymore. He is a partner in a private company. Which is a same as his weekly post where very informative. I would be surprised if Joe would give a broad statement, that Europe as a whole is going to have the coldest winter in so many years. As he has NEVER done that in the past. Whenever his a forecasted, he would talk as Pier's does. regarding regions. Never whole continents. Mike
On 11 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
The wind continues from the east and walking around the streets of our capital it was just a bit chilly despite the sun. There have been a few small showers around but generally mainly sunny. Iceagenow infuriates with forecasts that are not followed up by the outcome so you have no idea if it happened. Can be a bit alarmist but called out the Express/Exacta forecast from the off as being dubious. Early snow in Romania now and a cold look to Europe judging by the airflow. Joe Bastardi is a reliable source whoever he works for but we sit off mainland Europe and there have been correctly forecast cold winters that we have not had by just a hundred miles or so. So it could be another of those or it is our turn as well.
On 11 Oct 2016, Mike wrote:
I wouldn't take much notice of Ice Age Now website. When they are unable to get correct, who Joe Bastardi works for. Joe hasn't worked for AccWeather for years. He's at WeatherBell. Europe is a big place. We are on the edge of Western Europe. That makes a massive difference. There have been many winters where central or Eastern Europe have been cold. But we have stayed mild as we are on the tip of Western Europe. Ice Age Now saying Europe is going to have coldest winter in so many years, is a very broad comment. Time will tell. As a cold/snowy fan. I hope the Uk. And I mean all, not just northern parts gets plenty of snow this winter. Mike
On 11 Oct 2016, Sue (Cambridge 30 day subscriber) wrote:
At 8.50 a.m. it was 6C in my back garden this morning. Mist has now cleared and it's bright and sunny with only a very slight breeze. Now, 10.40, it's 11 C. A perfect Autumn day.
On 10 Oct 2016, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
It's a cold night here and we are only in October! I remember Halloween 2010 being bitterly cold and look what followed! Hopefully this winter is not as bad as the one in the southern hemisphere, but big Joe thinks otherwise!
On 10 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Saturday night was mild, Sunday was nice again warm working in the garden but at times light rain drops at the same time as being sunny similar to Gerry. Dropped off a bit cooler than the previous night around 8 deg instead of 12/13. A nice day again today though a few deg cooler around 13 deg some cloud mixed with sunny spells and a nip in the air tonight around 6 or 7 deg at 11 pm
On 10 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, quite a bit of rain to start the day but then brightening up, light winds mainly from the NE, then E, cooling rapidly every time the sun disappeared behind the clouds - something we’ve gotten used to over the last few weeks - , max temp 13˚, 8˚ at 9pm. This morning we had an interesting phenomenon that occurs in certain conditions: fog in our double polytunnel (16x20 m2), like amicroclimate, not sure how this works but always makes us smile.
On 10 Oct 2016, Joe wrote:
Have a look at 'ice age now' website. Europe braced for the coldest winter for 100 years. Joe Bastardi agrees ! What do you think Piers ?
On 10 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Good to know the secret of GFS modeling at last. Lots of showers over the weekend. On Saturday I was looking out at a garden bathed in sunshine wondering what the strange noise was. It was raining quite heavily at the same time. Slightly fewer showers on Sunday. Lots of sunny spells. Chilly to start and I actually had a burst of heater in my study. Working in the garage until late there was an Autumn chill in the air as the sun went down. Another pleasant day so far. Poland's Tatras mountains have received some snow. No indication if this is early but in the warmest year evah it seems early. More snow in the US and Canada, some of which is early. A few hot breaths on the thermometer before taking the reading should cure the cold. Steve - mr Polar Bear is worth around $2m - not sure if US or CDN. And VP wasn't set up to take down Polar, it was already there. But then IRT is more docudrama than anything else.
On 09 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, clear starry sky earlier on, frost on car roof and on grass in sheltered spaces, splendid if cool autumn day with a max of 13˚, wall to wall blue sky with some cloud further inland, almost clear sky by evening with 5˚ at 9.30pm.
On 09 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY: I have now finally discovered the true secret of using GFS to full true effect--you just rotate your computer monitor screen through 90 degrees every four hours. Such is the nature of standard models.
On 08 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but sun breaking through by 9am, giving us a bright day overall with occasional darker intervals and even a few showers, impressive cumulus towers building up from time to time. Max temp 15˚, not bad for early October, 6˚ by midnght.
On 08 Oct 2016, Geoff wrote:
Daily Telegraph on extent of ice cover makes a nice change from the Noddy in Bungland aka FA Saga. Fascinating back pedalling by the Meltistas in the face of some interesting stats on current and recent recording- but worry not since the Great Melt will arrive maybe as soon as tomorrow when it can be celebrated in Free Beer, the first fruit of tomorrow. What's the Party Line- bourgeois delusion or something equally nasty?
On 08 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A nice week with a mix of sunny blue sky periods and cloud mixing in, SE'ly breezes at times too & some morning mist and dry except for yesterday early a.m when we had some light showers, sunny and warm again today max 16 deg. Some cooler evenings this week at times, good weather though for autumn.
On 08 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
The warmists are now squabbling over the definition of a hurricane hitting the US since Roger Pielke Sr has clocked up 4001 days since the last Cat 3 or above hit in his chart. Following the path of papers that torture data such as Karl et al there is one that tries to say that the hurricane drought doesn't exist either. Desperation. On WUWT there is an interesting piece on Arctic ice and why things are changing up there. I always understood from those pre-eminent in such things that there was an approximate 60 year cycle and with satellite records only starting in 1979 we have just a snippet of the cycle. The article is saying the same and that we have been viewing the downcycle of ice but that has changed since 2007. Could we just be a cold Northern Hemisphere winter and a Trump victory from the whole scam collapsing like a South Australian power grid?
On 08 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY: Would you believe GFS have now gone back to the warm southerlies for the 19th 20th?--well of course you could as it jus a pretty-coloured chart generator.
On 08 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A short sharp hail storm for our region yesterday - fortunately we didn't get it at our place http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/85084076/intense-hailstorm-rattles-nelson-region
On 07 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast most of the day, still breezy from SSE, max temp 13˚, milder evening with 8˚ at 11.30pm.
On 07 Oct 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Gerry - that actually made me laugh at loud at my desk. Poor Polar Bear! Even worse for Mrs Polar Bear. Mind you, considering his ample size, I'm amazed he could even achieve any sort of 'How's yer father' in that department! He's permanently glued either to his office chair or inside a truck anyway so amazed his heart hasn't packed up. Back to the weather - GFS useless? Oh yes. All over the place beyond 144hrs every single day. This is why I avoid the forums on Netweather. They obsess over one timeframe which promises cold weather then vanishes on the next run.
On 07 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Why do they bother with the GFS model as it is so useless? Looking at the satellite on Sat24 you can see the blocking happening when you run the sequence. Cloudy with some drizzle early but brightened up a bit. No sun though. Meanwhile, Slovakia has posted the coldest October 5 in 75 years. And in Brasil, it has been the coldest September since their records began - in 1966 as I don't play the game of not quantifying that statement. Going to make it more difficult for the warmist year bunch. Steve - yes, found out about Daryl when looking for why the Polar Bear was missing. Apparently he sued the TV company for an accident in their pickup that has left him dormant down below. Mrs Polar Bear not happy at missing fun. They have dropped him from the show in response.
On 06 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, & S’y breeze still going though less strong than yesterday, sunny off & on all day, max temp 16˚, wind turning a bit more SSE’ly, taking temperature down noticeably when clouds obscured the sun, not surprising of course, since we’re now getting fed Siberian air courtesy of the HP area over Scandinavia. Now at 7.30pm the sky is clear as a bell, it is pretty dark already and we have 8˚.
On 06 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS has more gyrations than H. Mathew. So far we've had a cold northerly forecast for the 19th-20th, then just a few hours later that had switched to a warm southerly and now it's going to be a cold easterly!
On 06 Oct 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Gerry. I'm an IRT fan aswell. Did you hear about Daryl though? RIP!
On 06 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Fine weather continuing. Less chilly the last couple of mornings and some cloud this morning but the sun is through now. The wind has been strong since Tuesday, blowing straight up river while crossing London Bridge. Blustery wind yesterday that finally eased as evening came. New series of Ice Road Truckers has started and should give an interesting view of last winter in Canada - Manitoba specifically. Shame Hugh 'The Polar Bear' Rowland has gone this time.
On 06 Oct 2016, Mark Hall (Herts, UK) wrote:
Another one eyed article on the BBC website at the moment. In an apparent celebration of the achievements of Annie Maunder, they totally ignored the observed relationship between sun spot numbers and climate that was established by her and her husband. Cannot wait for the biography of Herschel in which they will probably say his accurate futures pricing of grain was merely due to mathematical prowess.
On 06 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE DEVINE: Who the F will know, bearing in mind the vacillating predictions per quarter day that GFS comes up with sometimes showing a 180 degree difference in wind direction within a few hours? One thing we can say is, that if the present synoptic scenario happened in Dec-Feb period, it would be thermal undies and extra duvet time.
On 06 Oct 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Scandinavian High Pressure dominates on the GFS model before a storm approaches from the SW between 11-13th October. Will the blocking high pressure win the day or will the Atlantic finally make inroads? Only one way to find out...
On 06 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Rough weather for Auckland and other parts of the North Island tonight http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11723143. The effects of last week's R4 seem to be ongoing in a low R period.
On 05 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, mild & still breezy from the S, the wind increasing in strength during the morning and still going now after 10pm. Sunny with clouds and a max temp of 15˚ until 3pm, overcast thereafter but dry all day, 11˚ now. My wife has been in France this week and says it was very hot there, upper 20s.
On 05 Oct 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
PEOPLE! ALL CITIZENS WHERE ARE YOU? DONT MISS THESE AMAZING DEAL 6/12m@3/5 on top of already reductions. TODAY. >>>DO IT<<< FULL FREE EXTENSIONS FOR ANY OVERLAPS. JUST DO IT! ==== FRED Yes interesting but I dont really trust any of these "Never ever before" claims (which in this case means "Not yet"). Bear in mind the official measures of Stratospheric QBO have chnaged a number of times in the last decade or so.
On 05 Oct 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
PEOPLE! ALL CITIZENS WHERE ARE YOU? DONT MISS THESE AMAZING DEAL 6/12m@3/5 on top of already reductions. YOU HAVE UNNTIL 3.20pm TODAY. >>>DO IT<<< FULL FREE EXTENSIONS FOR ANY OVERLAPS. JUST DO IT! ==== FRED Yes interesting but I dont really trust any of these "Never ever before" claims (which in this case means "Not yet"). Bear in mind the official measures of Stratospheric QBO have chnaged a number of times in the last decade or so.
On 05 Oct 2016, Fred wrote:
Hi Piers What are your thoughts on the 'unprecedented' failure of QBO phase to reverse to easterly state from westerly state. Apparently it has not happened once since it was observed from 1960. What impact is likely to have
On 04 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast and mild, the sun making a brief appearance and then back to grey all day with a stiff S’ly breeze that is still going now at 10pm, though under a clear sky. Max temp 15˚, 12˚ now, Indian summer has been put on hold.
On 04 Oct 2016, Sue (Cambridge subscriber) wrote:
After a chilly start yesterday (6 C at 8.00) we're back to Indian Summer now 20C and scarcely a cloud in the sky at 14.15. Breezey. Doubtless this all "proves" AGW. But then everything does, doesn't it?
On 03 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Richard W, a neighbour gives us cooking apples every autumn and this year I came home to a huge bag full of lovely apples left at the gate, has been a fab year for them. Is weird I've noticed too with the veg garden how the better yields and lots of produce in the freezer and shed usually a colder winter. here's hoping!
On 03 Oct 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A cooler end to the week and over the weekend, around 6 deg overnight, dry days with some sunny spells. Milder last night and more so tonight around 11 deg at 11pm, daytime around 15/16 & a SE'ly breezy wind today and into tonight but staying dry here. N and W of the country on Orange and Yellow rainfall warning.
On 03 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, not as cold as expected but still frost on the car roof, freshening S’ly breeze with clouds and sunshine, got reasonably warm at times but the wind was pretty fresh in the morning, max temp 14˚, still quite breezy by evening with denser clouds racing across the sky, 11˚ by 9pm.
On 03 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Just stopped laughing long enough to write this post as on checking the GFS prediction a few minutes ago. lo and behold they are now predicting warm southerly air on the 19th, with the previous Arctic blast now deflected further north and east! Standard models my backside
On 03 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
With the rain and clouds gone by yesterday evening, stepping outside it was certainly cold. The house was pleasantly warm with no need for heating. Notably chilly this morning with a possibility of a frost on the windscreen overnight. Lots of mist still at 8-30 on the trip to the station. Phone said it was 36F! At least the train was warm.
On 03 Oct 2016, RichardW (30d sub, Lanark) wrote:
Picked the apples off our tree yesterday. This is a large, old, cooking apple tree, probably an early Bramley. 45kg!! Last time we had a crop like that was 2010 - an indication of things to come??
On 03 Oct 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
That whirling Dervish of predictability, GFS, is now going for a marked Arctic plunge around the 19-21st October, but probably by this time tomorrow it will predict a warm southerly flow for that period!
On 02 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, forst on car roof but not on grass like with you, Ron. Beautiful autumn day, a real joy as you say, light NE’ly breeze with a certain sting in it but the sun still warming nicely in the sheltered spot where we had our picnic. Still a lot of blaeberries around, easily picked 3lb in a short time with my rake, blackberries a real pleasure too. Max temp 15˚, 6˚ at 9pm, sky partly cloudy, maybe we’ll be spared a frost, woulnd’t like our dahlias in the veg tunnel to go black overnight.
On 02 Oct 2016, Ron Greer ( subscriberr ) wrote:
Awoke to a real frost this morning, with the grass on the village recreation area behind my house glistening white in the low sun. Skies blue and clear and the autumn colours glowing--autumn can be a joy.
On 02 Oct 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Torrential rain and flooding across the North Island of NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/84870478/flooding-and-slips-possible
On 01 Oct 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast & drizzly, then sunshine and showers all morning, max temp 15˚, dry afternoon, N - NE’ly breeze, 9˚ at 9.30pm. Regarding Sept forecast, my nose is too close to the grindstone at this time of year with our trees and being away on holiday so I haven’t been able to ascertain for our location how accurate it was, but the breakdown in the last period was on cue, even though the wild wind and rain never quite reached us on the East side. In any case, August & September with their relative warmth saved the summer for us, October might just turn out to be reasonably kind, we hope.
On 01 Oct 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Cooler evening on Thurs so working out in the garage required a shirt over the t-shirt. Friday was generally a nice day. Early morning mist and chilly at the station. Warmer once in town. A shower just before lunchtime and then pleasant again. Warmer evening. Today has been wet all morning and only now at 1pm has blue sky appeared. Chilly in my study, enough to look towards uncovering the gas heater before too long. Good forecast for September with variation in temperature levels. Today's rain was possibly further into the SE but the timing spot on.
On 30 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C overnight, 5˚ by 7.30, still & cold, some cloud but developing into a mostly sunny day with a NW’ly breeze and a nice max temp of 16˚, not as cold as one might have expected from the start. Light rain in the evening, 10˚ by 9.30pm. Saw a number of swallows that stayed a while over the farm before moving on, our own lot left around 10th Sept. Geese aplenty now flying over.
On 30 Sep 2016, Ron Greer(subscriber) wrote:
Just took the 3 month deal for a well spent £20. Looking ahead, it was very useful for deciding when to lay in my central heating fuel and to decide my transplanting schedules for transplanting my tree seedlings. Thanks indeed Piers, you have saved me both time and money.
On 30 Sep 2016, Jonathan Hunt wrote:
Hi Piers and all, I'm sure you have been watching Hurricane Matthew over the last few days. I now live in the Cayman Islands and I try to continue your formula to help determine the true strength of extreme weather here. I have noticed a big underestimation of how quickly Matthew would grow. The Solar Flare stream has been consistent for the last 5 days and is clearly having an effect on Matthew. It was upgraded to Cat 1 on Thursday, almost 24hrs earlier than predicted. Upgraded to Cat 2 earlier this morning, over 24hrs earlier than expected. Now it is at Cat 3! The world Met Offices think that the high to the North East and the Low to the North West will drag a northernly path but my instinct is saying that because the models were basing it on a weaker hurricane, won't the path be more west as the strength and sheer size of the hurricane won't be easily re-directed. Thoughts anyone?
On 29 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, clear & blustery start, W’ly wind picking up rapidly through the morning, mostly sunny until after midday, max temp 15˚, rain starting up early afternoon and continuing until 5pm, feeling much colder by then, wind abating by evening, 7˚ at 10pm. What a change from last night’s feel! Well, it IS autumn…
On 29 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cooler fresh breezy day with some sunny times this morning, a few light showers this afternoon, max 13 deg clear cool starry and 8 deg this eve.
On 29 Sep 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// thank you Piers for the forcast (I bought the discounted to £ 20.00 for next 3 months) - worth every penny - most interesting and I can certainly plan outside gardening and other pursuits. 👏
On 29 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Big bang in Indonesia on cue for the R period. Tuesday ended with heavy cloud, no rain, and dark by the time I got home. A hint of the darker evenings to come. Yesterday was a cooler day and it ended with a strong breeze driving a heavy drizzle. As I was home after dark it was out with a head torch to feed the fish and with its strong beam the drizzle was easy to see. Dull and damp this morning with drizzle and then once in town a heavy shower just before I could get to work. Sunny spells now. A strong westerly breeze. A change on cue with the forecast. Has the R4 taken down the S Australia power grid as storms have stopped the windmills - too windy - and brought down some powerlines and since they have no proper generation they rely on interconnection with states without a retarded energy policy. But if the other states have nothing to spare or the lines are down, welcome to darkness.
On 28 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Read today 985 mm rain fell in 24 hrs in Taiwan, gees puts our rain into perspective... R4 mayhem strikes again.
On 28 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, clear & mild start with a S’ly breeze but soon clouding over with rain off and on, max temp by midday only 13˚, fog rolling in after 3pm but then clearing up by 6pm and temps suddenly rising to 18˚, 16˚ by 10pm, amazing turnaround.
On 28 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
followed by...more rain :|
On 28 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday turned into a lovely day, a good amount of sunshine and no more rain, a light breeze to start drying everything out was helpful to get a load of veg outside picked and sorted for the winter. Max 17 deg. Another great day today lots of sun and a warm 20/21 deg with a light SW'ly breeze that has increased this afternoon, hot for a time while digging over one of the veg gardens for winter. Some more cloud again now at 4.30 pm but the sun is still shining on down :)
On 27 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Although 8˚C overnight it was mild & overcast by 7.30 with 11˚, S’ly wind to start with and a bit of rain off & on but brightening up by 11am, temps rising nicely to 17˚, though the strengthening SW’ly stopped them from going any higher. Windy old afternoon & evening, still blowing at 10pm with 12˚. So far, the autumn has been pleasant.
On 27 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Met Office going for a mild October, then blocking becoming established either to the west or north of the UK during November > December which would eventually set up beautifully for N'ly/E'ly sourced airmasses. Do they agree with Piers? Only one way to find out... :-)
On 27 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
The pleasant days keep rolling on. Dry. Quite warm for the time of year. Some varying cloud. Not quite the blazing heat forecast but not really sorry not to have missed that. Grass is growing quite slowly. I saw the Madden/Exacta snowmageddan on iceagenow. At least there was the sense to point out the dubious nature of the forecast.
On 27 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday developed into a real nice day with some good spells of sunshine, some clouds about and quite warm around 16 deg. Managed to get caught up on a fair amount of outside work, resembled a green yeti by the time I finished strimming the grass as it was so wet :) Turned the heavy saturated compost heap and processed a load of plants that had finished in the Polytunnel whilst collecting up almost the last of the chili's peppers and tomatoes. Showers again by evening but remained mild overnight. Mostly cloudy this morning and some light rain to start, cloud breaking up in places with a hint of sun at times, breezy also, around 13 deg at 9.20 a.m Yeah Paddy we've def. had our fair share of rain, here's hoping another mostly dry day is on the cards today, enjoy your dry ground while I slide around in my snow boots ;-)
On 26 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, brilliant clear & cold start but soon warming up to 16˚ max by early afternoon in the light S’ly breeze, occasional cloud cover but otherwise a decent autumn day, 11˚ at 9.30pm. ==Maria: amazing how much rain you’ve had, almost nothing here, in fact I don’t think the ground has been as dry as that with us for the whole year so far.
On 26 Sep 2016, steven wright wrote:
i see james madden is at it again for winter saying months of snow in the sun and daily express however i think even though he goes over the top ive seen long range weather models and solar sunspots are low and it does favour a cold winter for uk has anyone else got an idea or opinon of what might happen this winter
On 26 Sep 2016, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Piers....just read the annual bad winter article in the Daily Express and they quote you as saying December's weather will be exciting if you like cold weather. Did you really say that, Piers, or are they clutching at icicles again? Thanks.
On 26 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some torrential downpours this weekend and gusty wind blowing at times alternating to breezy, the rain moving onwards each time it dumped a lot down in a short period of time and clearer weather behind it for a while. A lot of water on the roads this morning. 11 deg cloudy but dry so far this Monday morning :)
On 26 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister wrote:
heavy rain and flooding for the Coromandel and Gisborne NZ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11716597. Also flooding in Forbes, NSW, Australia http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/flood-emergency-in-forbes-nsw-as-rivers-set-to-peak-on-sunday-night-20160924-grntyc.html
On 25 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, mild & overcast with light drizzle left from the overnight rain, turning into a lovely sunny autumn day though with a max temp of 17˚, feeling even warmer out of the fresh SW’ly breeze. Cool evening though, already down to 9˚ by 8.30pm.
On 25 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
A nice weekend so far. Fresh breeze around. Regarding our chill evenings comments, last night I stepped outside around 8pm as a friend left and we noted that it seemed warmer than we would have expected. I think it had clouded over a bit and during the early hours there was a burst of rain. Quite squally I think as all the gas works barriers are in the trench. No surprise that the MetO is banging their super warm September drum with those dubious maximum temperatures. When you see the station locations I can't help but wonder is all the surface warming just increased night time minimums even though there is some warming in the satellite records. Steve - I am not sure that I would say this has been an exceptionally warm summer.
On 25 Sep 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Where did that storm come from last night? 42mm of rain here TWO had about 5/10mm and showers off the MO
On 24 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, blustery S wind, mild and overcast all day, max temp 15˚, a little rain in the afternoon, 13˚ by 10pm.
On 24 Sep 2016, C View wrote:
Interesting observations from the sailing press. A magazine article on cruising in Scotland when describing what kind of weather to expect through the summerr mentioned how in recent years low pressure systems have tended to track further South often allowing high pressure to build from the North and give settled conditions. Further real world observed evidence of jetstream changes. Also in another article about a guy cruising round Greenland the sailor noted that locals were telling him that the winter of 2015 was the longest they had seen in for 47 years.
On 24 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
23/9/16 A parky start to Friday 6 deg at 6.30 a.m I'm sure we had an almost slight grass frost. Some glimpses of sun but mostly cloudy day with a strengthening S'ly wind building and increasing, some showers at times. Listening to the wind down the chimney tonight. A mild 15 deg at 12.45 this morning..
On 23 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 brrr! Clear bright morning, a friend from a little further inland reported frost on their roof. However, as it brightened temps rose to 15˚ max with nice sunshine in a light S’ly breeze which increased in strength in the afternoon and brought clouds and eventually a bit of rain. Feeling cold by then but as the wind strengthened in the evening it got milder, 13˚ by 10pm. Looks like a windy old day tomorrow.
On 23 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Good morning everyone. A lovely crisp start to Friday in SW Essex with unbroken sunshine and temperatures starting at 9.9c by 7am. Lovely. Shame about the 23c blip tomorrow but never mind. Provisional data currently suggests that av daytime temps were 22.1c this month, only fractionally lower than 22.3c for Sept 2006. Night time averaged 13.6c this month, only 0.1c cooler than Sept 2006. It has been an exceptionally warm if not delayed summer this year. I just hope Autumn can wrestle control from the most stubborn summer season I can recall since 2006!
On 22 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Clear cool and starry last night, was really nice to see a night sky after so many cloudy nights. Slight mist this morning and a chilly start, some cloud moved in but sunny spells followed by a light shower around lunch time. Dry this afternoon max 14 deg with showers to finish the day.
On 22 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, rain overnight and up to 10.30 am, sun coming out thereafter and turning into a nice autumn day with a max temp of 16˚, we could actually sit in the sun after 4pm and feel an aftertaste of our holiday (Mallorca, 33˚ to start with but getting cooler). Equinox today at 15.21 - as soon as the sun was gone it got steadily colder, same as you, Gerry, down to 8˚ by 10pm.
On 22 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Here's a question - why do auroras appear more at the equinox? Prompted by spaceweather. They are going to be monitoring cosmic radiation which is steadily increasing as the sun goes quiet. Pleasant day so far with some sunny spells. Warm. Getting chill in the evenings now.
On 22 Sep 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Very interesting forecasts for Nov/ Dec Piers. Well worth the £20 offer. So far this year we have received 1150mm of rain which is about average for our area
On 21 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Lovely day - no other word for it. Nice amount of warmth. Just right. Should be a lovely evening too. I noted a few small sunspots came and went. There doesn't seem to be many of the long lived sunspots that remain for more than a rotation anymore. Another sign of change?
On 21 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy dry start until midday, light rain with a S'ly wind thereafter and torrential rain for the last 15 mins or so max 13 deg 12 now at 4pm. Piers sounds happy today :)) it's a deal it's a steal it's the sale of the century :-)
On 21 Sep 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
YES YES YES HELLO ALL IT'S TRUE SPECIAL TO FIRST 100 SUBS ONLY GET DEC 100day ahead NOW ONLY £20 inc Sep+Oct+Nov + all updates 70% OFF <= GO FOR IT PASS IT ON! THANKS - All existing sub overlaps get extended
On 20 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Rain late afternoon and into the early evening. Fog. A cloudy start today but dry and generally bright. The Jetstream forecast has changed from yesterday and is giving us southerly flow for longer but if you threw in a block to the east that stopped the next loop from coming in we could have a really good spell. Some interesting figures on electricity costs last week on Notalot... where prices paid went up to £1400/Mwh - 30 times the normal rate - as coal plants were brought in to keep the power on. That's the price we have to pay for government stupidity on energy. And it can only get worse.
On 20 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some rain for the day after last post clearing by late afternoon. Yesterday and today dry with a lot of cloud cover and only the occasional glimpse of sun through the cloud. Top temp 14 today. Willow tree has nearly lost all it's leaves and trees gaining their autumn colours a little more by the day now, beautiful time of year.
On 19 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
A weekend of mostly cloud with only a few sunny spells. No record heat that I could detect. Cloud blocked the moonrise so no chance to see the penumbral eclipse. A video suggested it is a bit hard to see anyway. The sunspot activity seems to have fallen away again. The netweather Jetstream forecast has a flow coming up from Spain at the end of the week, but only briefly. A week of differing forecasts but a good month for Piers so far.
On 18 Sep 2016, @Piers_Corbyn London Chief Forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR COMMS ALL! WE also got congrats by phone. MORE REPORTS WELCOME. ALL SEE THE NEW AMAZING OFFER THREE MONTHS FOR ONE for ALL NEW (ie not subbed in last 12m) SUBS. Please pass this info on to ANYONE who might consider subbing - Do ReTweets FaceBook blogs websites! Thanks Piers
On 17 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
So will the AGW lot claim that the very warm Arctic just now is due to there being no uptick in solar activity during the late 20th century? Funny how that guy we all know who uses a solar-lunar technique to predict the weather got it so right again!!?? Well done Piers.
On 17 Sep 2016, Carl 45d Subscriber wrote:
Please add my congratulations to Piers forecast.BANG ON the nail.We too experienced torrential downpours and flash flooding and again the MetO failed to forecast it even 24 hours ahead
On 17 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Been snowed under with health care politics for my partner, the kind that takes a lot of persistence energy and fighting for your rights whilst caring for someone in agony if you don't have a private card to flash about! The weather here has been just as Piers forecasted, amazing accuracy once again Piers great stuff! ;-)
On 17 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Heavy rain and flooding in the Wellington region of NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/84369651/fire-services-called-to-pump-out-flooded-homes-road-closed-as-bad-weather-hits. Piers, still no RTQ forecast loaded!
On 16 Sep 2016, Geoff wrote:
Ron Greer PS re sunspots. If the annual level of activity is indeed so much greater than previously though doesn't it follow that a busier sun would have contributed a lot more than previously thought to any warming of the Earth (unless we are now expected to accept that sunspots are a function of the surface temperature of the Earth?!) What think our astrophysicists?!
On 16 Sep 2016, @CraigM350 Sub, Berks 51N wrote:
Steve - several times!!! It rumbled on for ages with a hefty bit of rain causing widespread distribution === http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-37382361 === the storm during last night's rush hour was something to behold as well. One crack was like a gun had been fired and reports locally of large hail about 5p size as the storm exploded to life. Haven't seen localised flooding like that since 09. I must say Piers forecast was "bang" on!!!! /// Gravesend was about 1.6C higher than other stations, covered at Tallbloke's more than once*. A wonderful spell of weather indeed which came as no surprise to Weather Action subscribers. ===* https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-21/comment-page-1/#comment-119667 === Storms were nothing like typooh Meranti a cat 5 which slammed into China as a cat 2. This vid sequence is jaw dropping === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/09/15/stunning-satellite-images-of-hurricane-meranti/
On 16 Sep 2016, Geoff wrote:
Ron Greer Sunspot number. In a few idle moments I just had another look at the 'adjusted/corrected' graph in the Astronomy Now article. As we have noted there is no obvious explanation for the adjustment. In looking at any revised series where the effect is to reinforce a particular case. as an ageing sceptic my first assumption is that someone has been playing 'Goal Seek' on the spreadsheet-classic creative accountancy aka 'What Profit do you want to report this year Guv?' I haven't done a plot by plot examination of tyhe two graphs, but as ageneral observation, whilst the claimed post 'correction' is interesting, the big expplanation is that someone has increased the incidence of sunpots from 1700 onwards by about 50 per plot-so 25-40% or so right across the piece. 'Sun a lot Spottier' would be an interesting headline I guess. It runs right through to the end of the last century so the original data providers are probably still alive. I wonder if they have been asked to comment?
On 16 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
No storms over me either. Could see lightning to the west and the netweather radar suggested storms were developing near me but heading NW. Is it the presence of the North Downs generating the storms. No rain even until the early hours. Cloud had built up during the late afternoon so late it was nearly dark come 7.15. Thick cloud and quite heavy rain this morning so far. I don't doubt that they are running a campaign to try to get us to believe it is the hottest evah.
On 16 Sep 2016, linda haynes wrote:
No storms here in Gwent 11 degrees now light winds overcast hoping for sun.......yesterday was 25 degrees big change....
On 16 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Morning all. Did anyone else get woken up by the epic storms last night?
On 15 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
anyone else on Facebook notice the 'hottest August for 136 years' graphic with the same graphic, but for individual towns/ places also cropping up? Looks like a concerted campaign.
On 15 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Interesting cloud development over and around Central London right now. Should be a very interesting evening / night ahead folks in SE England...
On 15 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
As a Surrey resident all my life I am seeing a disconnect between their claims and reality. This year especially. Is it a deliberate ploy to try to get ratification of the Paris agreement in such numbers that they can declare it to be enforceable? Or having seen the El Nino boost 2015 can they not bear to report 2016 as lower? As far as Summers go, 1976 is the one I recall. School holiday spent fighting fires on the heathland caused by the constant sunny days and lack of rain. Out in the sticks the evenings are still cool with enough of a breeze to vent the heat out from upstairs. Lovely and cool last night. Slightly fresher today. Breeze across London Bridge. The Jetstream looks to be bringing a change in from the NW. What will happen afterwards?
On 15 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF: I agree, but it all boils down to their claim, in this instance, that there has been no late 20th century rise in solar activity or indeed any substantial change since the 18th century. Both camps can't be wrong at the same time. This to me has the stamp of Svalgaard all over it. Piers' thoughts would be much appreciated
On 15 Sep 2016, John Woods wrote:
I have been looking at temperatures in the many stations in the S E England for years. There seems to have been a considerable difference in temperature developing between the S E England and the rest of the Country since the 1990s, with the rest of the country becoming significantly cooler especially in the summer months. I to have wondered where they are faking the temperatures to achieve record breaking temperatures in the South East.
On 15 Sep 2016, stephen parker wrote:
the Gravesend weather station was debunked by Anthony watts a few years ago, breaks all the rules for weather station siting: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/18/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-93-the-hottest-weather-station-in-the-uk-cited-by-the-bbc-has-some-interesting-exposure/
On 14 Sep 2016, Geoff wrote:
re no Maunder in the late C20. Ron. I too am not entirely surprised by the current Return of the Climate Changers- ythey do have a lot riding onhe continued acceptance of their hypothesis, and much of the questioninghas knocked a lot of corners off them- to the point where- a bit like the Militants/Trots/Blairites- they stop arguing about the evidence and just try to bore bully or assassinate us into silence. '97% of Climate Scientists believe in AGW' looks pretty conclusive until you work out that Climate 'Science' as a popular subject postdates the beginnings of the panic-roughly when the Calder speculation re perma ice didn't happen?- so it is reasonable to assume that most of them qualified with AGW as the breaking theory where its like at man? In the current case have the proposers actually set out their methodology for merging the figures so conveniently? I will pray to St Thomas the Doubter for their enlightenment-note we only have xth degree corroboration of his 'conversio
On 14 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Forecast to perfection. I have needed the fans to cool upstairs again. Last night there was a gentle breeze from the east that was blown through to change the air. Dropped away by midnight. Hot and humid in London - what is it the Met O are saying? Hottest September since the planet was formed? Mr Greer - Heathrow was being built in 1949 and was surrounded by acres of fields and not much else. Vastly different to today. And Gravesend seems to be subject to issues with the veracity of temps recorded there. Talking of fishy things - there is great excitement that Polarocean made it through both NW and NE passages. However, there is some suspicion that their passage through the Laptev Sea was assisted by an ice breaker and a tanker. Without them they wouldn't have made it. I read rumours of tracking beacons being turned off for a while.
On 14 Sep 2016, Carl 45d Subscriber wrote:
Yes Steve.We too in Bucks could get heavy thundery downpours.Have you also just recently noticed how the BBC forecast have suddenly played up these storms from 24 hours earlier.Looks like the R4 period is coming true
On 14 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Another BANG ON forecast for the 14-17th Sept period Piers. Well, that was an incredibly stifling night's sleep. 20c on the car thermometer when I started up the engine at 6:45am in sunny SW Essex, 21c by the time I reached Loughton and climbing. Looks like rainfall totals could be serious Thursday night into Friday for central and eastern districts. Good storm potential too. Thankfully today and tomorrow are 'only' 27-28c in the suburbs. I may sleep outside wearing only a snorkel on Thursday night! :-D
On 13 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF: I don't think they are trying to deny that it was colder during the Maunder Minimum or that if an equivalent occurred in Cycle 24 it would have no affect, just that the late 20th century warming claimed by the AGW protagonists had nothing to do with increased solar activity from 1700 AD as there has been no recent increase. Where do you stand on this Piers? LORRAINE: , if the Earth has shifted in tilt, it is difficult to consider that only Inuit would notice.
On 13 Sep 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// well done on the predictions - last Thursday Guernsey Channel Islands about 24 degrees, went to beach after work and I can't believe I am saying this, tanning at 7 pm in the evening. Now eith the sun has got more fierce, or the seasons have shifted due to an earth shift tip on axis or the ozone is depleted. So taking into consideration the Innuit Indians premise the sun goes down in a different place I am guessing our seasons have shifted
On 13 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF: glad my typo has not prevented an examination of the article. I managed to get it correct in Ice Age Now. I've noticed an increase of pro-AGW pieces on Facebook and it seems the AGW acolytes are in evangelising mode again. So, this piece fits in to the apparent strategy and we need to know how best to engage with it.
On 13 Sep 2016, Carl 45d Subscriber wrote:
Great forecasting \piers and as well as torrential thunderstorms in the North.Yet the BBC forecast last night just mentioned a band of rain over Northern Ireland and West Scotland NOT severe thunderstorms>then i noted Piers little comment on the bottom "more active than standard meteorological forecasts SPOT ON PIERS
On 13 Sep 2016, geoff wrote:
Sunspot activity. dropping the s takes you straight through to an article reporting that correction to the two sunspot data series covering c1700 to date eliminates solar activity as a driver of temperature long cycle fluctuation. Clearly tempting to counter that any set of numbers can be tortured to come up with the answer you want-hockey stick anyone? But I hope we are grown up enough to examine the case rather more objectively- the article as published seems a bit short on the 'how we did it' front. But- we are not cultists (I hope). Step forward the man who knows? Your ball Piers, and a darned sight more important than boundary changes!
On 13 Sep 2016, geoff wrote:
have you tried the address but with the 's' removed from https?
On 13 Sep 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR COMMS GUYS! Thanks Steve yes and of course Heathrow airport is the stupidest place in the world to observe temperatures. I went out into the street lunchtime from Delta House our Office in Borough High Street Lodon Bridge and wow quite a hit of heat. Nice to see that rain in Ireland + west (thaks Suzy) too (thanks report Maria) - just a taste of what's to come as we enter the R period main effects (R3 12-13th, R4 14-17th). Probably real R4 a day early from your comms info but within +/-1d. NEWS IS TO CELEBRATE WE ARE KEEPING TEMPORARILLY the 2 for one Climate Conference deal so all please FIND someone impressed by our correct forecasting of this heatwave-hotspell - see home page pdf image - and get them to SUBSCRIBE under the offer. Thanks Piers
On 13 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
what was the surrounding environment like at Heathrow in 1949? Will they tell us?
On 13 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
EAMORE, I see that I've missed '-to' after due in that address. My apologies.
On 13 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
It's official. The weather station on the runway at Heathrow Airport has confirmed we've broken the 1949 "hottest September day evah" record with 32.2c being reached. Let's not forget it's only 1:20pm as I write this comment, but kudos to Piers AGAIN who continues on his excellent run of accuracy from March, through a chilly and cool June through to a never-ending summer well into September! Meanwhile, epic downpours in the Home Counties and western most areas of England, clipping E Wales, slap bang on the border between the cooler Atlantic air and baking continental influx.
On 13 Sep 2016, maria 45 day somerset wrote:
wave after wave of intense rain and thunder this morning. Temperature is a very pleasant 19 degrees out. No hint of rain on the meto forecast and I went to the allotment early to water some plants before the mythical very hot weather arriived. 10/10 to PC again, a day early but so what
On 13 Sep 2016, suzy dorset wrote:
Had a terrific thunder storm this morning, lasted nearly two hours.
On 13 Sep 2016, Eamore wrote:
The page you referred to cannot be found. Correct address or have they thought better of it?
On 13 Sep 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
guys, having the below used against me in arguments on climate change. Thoughts and advice please https://astronomynow.com/2015/08/08/corrected-sunspot-history-suggests-climate-change-not-due-natural-solar-trends/
On 12 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, not cold but blustery S’ly wind backing SSE’ly later in the morning, mostly overcast with occasional glimpses of the sun, max temp 19˚, some light rain in early evening, 15˚ at 9pm. Off on hols for a week to somewhere warmer than Aberdeen where there will only be sporadic internet access.
On 12 Sep 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
What a difference a day makes. Currently 23c in Canary Wharf but the humidity has rocketed now that the cool breeze has switched round to a muggy southerly source. Yesterday was perfect though. Started out at 9c with sunny spells, gradually climbed to 22c with a nice breeze. Am dreading the next 72 hours. Why can't we have this at the weekend when we don't have to commute? Astounding accuracy from Piers on this part of September in the forecast by the way. GFS going for unsettled second half of September though, very wet on occasion. Mind you, the gardens badly need it.
On 12 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
The rest of Sunday was nice but warmth left rapidly at sunset. Cool this morning on the station walk. Warmer in London. Meanwhile, Netweather at 0911 this morning sates that the mean average CET is currently at a record high for September. Really? Anyone else struggling to believe this? Goes on to say that it will be perfect in the South East for late barbecues. Their forecast that it will be warm in the evenings would have to be true for that given the way it chills so quickly. Their Mon night temp chart goes from 22c to 15c in the SE. That is quite a range.
On 11 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, quite sunny start but morning temps are now going down, a mostly sunny day with quite a bit of cloud and a strong S’ly breeze, max temp 18˚, down to 13˚ by 10pm.
On 11 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
As the clock approaches noon with barely a cloud in the sky it is only 63F. Just shows the cooling effect of a clear sky overnight. Very interesting article by Tim Ball on WUWT on wind speed and changes to it. In the world of settled science, another unknown is wind it would seem since it gets barely a mention in the IPCC reports. Worth your time to read. Two good points within. Robin Page in his book Weather forecasting: The Country Way notes that 'Yet it is strange to record that the weather forecasting service has grown in size and expense, so its predictions seem to have become more inaccurate.' And further on Tim quotes Jean-Francois Revel that mentions 'prestige'. Richard North has covered this a few times on his blog as we saw a classic attempt to use prestige with Project Fear in the referendum. Many confuse prestige with knowledge and it accounts for those who still think the BBC is worth having and is a useful source of information.
On 11 Sep 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
GREAT CONTRIBUTIONS ALL! See today on home page REPORT notes of The amazing ClimateChange (Realists) international conference London 8-9Sept including LINK to my Presentation; AND TODAY ONLY NOTE the TWO FOR ONE (Sep +Oct Free, 6m for 12 and 12m to get 24) OFFER TO CONFERENCE ATTENDEES APPLIES TO EVERYONE - so get in there and pass this on Thanks! PC
On 10 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, cool & grey but by 9am the sun came out and we had a lovely warm day with a good S’ly breeze, max temp 19˚, but cooling down by evening under the cloud cover, 11˚ at 8pm. Grain harvest in full progress, we’ve had a good run of dry weather over the last fortnight with little rain, golden fields abound.
On 10 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Damp grey start yesterday but brighter and warmer once in London. Odd shower during the day but bright and warm with some sunny spells. Cool in the evening. Overcast but maninly bright today but with some showers. Radar suggests worst of the rain on its way across the channel on the SW wind. A warm 68F according to the gauge. Netweather has a burst of heat for Mon-Wed and then ending on Thurs. Their jetstream forecast has it coming up from the west of the Iberian peninsula from Monday and then moving into Spain so a Spanish Plume again in the wild jetstream path.
On 09 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, grey & slightly cooler start than of late, breezy from the S, strengthening into a pretty stiff wind which lasted all day and is still going now at 10pm. A little weak sunshine before midday, max temp 17˚, otherwise remaining overcast with rain between 5 and 8pm, a mild 15˚ at 10pm with the clouds racing across the sky, now and then revealing a star or two. Felt very autumnal today, the mild kind, especially as we also pulled up our climbing French beans in our veg tunnel, which have given us yet another bumper harvest this year, somewhere in the region of 60kg.
On 09 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Piers, still no RTQ forecast please can you upload? Thanks.
On 08 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, misty, breezy from the S, mild and staying grey, some very heavy rain by 11am which continued less ferociously throughout the afternoon, brightening up by 3.30pm and reaching 17˚, sunny end to the day, 12˚ at 10pm, back to more typical Scottish weather, Gerry, after the semi-mediterranean spell which we thoroughly enjoyed.
On 08 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Paddy, since then the clouds have parted and it has warmed contrary to the forecast. Yesterday was warm into the evening but walking back from the station half an hour later this evening in a gilet and rolled up sleeves it was a mite cool. Lovely sunset just completing. The warmists have another failure to answer. Having predicted warming would reduce crop yields, especially wheat, in the warmest year evah yields are hitting records. Another one for the failed list.
On 08 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
6th and 7th were dry and overcast but warm and muggy, started breaking down yesterday evening with light rain and still cloudy with light showers at times this morning.. Just enough time to get the dry onions hung up n stored and other jobs outside done :) A bit fresher and around 13 deg.
On 08 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The storm that has been sweeping up NZ is fierce http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/84027448/live-wild-weather-sweeps-across-new-zealand. Snow is unusual in Wellington winter so its more of a surprise in early spring. Spring storms tend to occur more in October but I guess in an MIA early September may not be unusual. We've been lucky in our region as apart from sqally showers and strong winds yesterday we've just had a strong cold southerly today. Tasman Bay is a very sheltered part of the top of the South Island so Nelson and Motueka often miss the brunt of a storm like this.
On 07 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
17˚C at 7.30, grey and still, short spell of light rain, only brightening up around 11 in the S’ly breeze that blew a little less strongly than yesterday. Not quite as sunny either but we still got to 24˚ max by mid afternoon, still 16˚ by 9.30pm. We’ve had a good run of warm weather for the last 10 days.
On 07 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Wild Spring weather has arrived for NZ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11704973. Spring is always turbulent in NZ and it is of no surprise for this weather to arrive within a week of the warmer Spring temps at the beginning of the month.
On 06 Sep 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Well, Gerry, in complete contrast to you we had 17˚ at 7.30, warmest morning this year and even though it was breezy (WSW) & grey to start with the sun came through for most of the day and the max temp exceeded the MO forecast, we had an amazing 26˚ by mid afternoon, a bit hot to be working in our tunnels packing trees but we had no choice. Still 18˚ at 9.30pm. For our parts, Piers’ 30 forecast hasn’t materialised at all, no complaints thoug :-)
On 06 Sep 2016, Andy L (Cambridge) wrote:
Mark Hall: thanks for your personal account of experiencing an earthquake, terrifying no doubt and something you'll never forget. I was interested to note that this was accompanied by thunder and lightning despite the absence of rain clouds? I had a quick look at Wiki ("Earthquake lights") and this appears to be a known but unexplained phenomenon. I have often wondered whether huge internal pressures preceding an earthquake on underground rocks which contain quartz might produce a piezo-electric effect which, if detected by sensitive equipment above ground might warn of an impending quake; could be a connection with localised lightning in the vicinity perhaps. Not quite weather as such but fascinating all the same. Speaking of which, cloudy and increasingly muggy here all day, it's going to be an uncomfortable night for sure.
On 06 Sep 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// lovely weather today 23 degrees light winds - sept 5 - sea temp 18.3 degrees very nice and clear - unusual for some years - no stingy jelly fish either they came in on swarms the last couple of years and weaver fish - not sure if this is due to the water temperature taking a while to warm up this year but it's like Autumn is being held back -
On 06 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
V humid. Doing some work last night I had to change t-shirt and my hair was damp. Walking to work from the station this morning was the same. Dull with low cloud.
On 06 Sep 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Piers, would you please upload the RTQ forecast - thank you!
On 05 Sep 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The night of the 3rd we had some pretty hefty rain and wind increased for a time also. Becoming milder again yesterday mostly overcast and a few downpours too. Today remained dry and sunny at times though mostly cloudy, muggy hot for a time this afternoon max 23 deg still mild tonight and feeling more tropical outside than it has over the whole summer.
On 05 Sep 2016, Gerry 45d Surrey/Kent border 223ft wrote:
Sunday was dull and overcast with rain coming later in the day and overnight. Not very summery at all. Grey and damp this morning but has dried up and brightened by the afternoon.