On 17 Mar 2016, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
Citizens, if you have noticed contributions have tailed off here because a new BLOGSPOT started on the Ides of March.
On 16 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mostly cloudy today light breeze with a few really brief glimpses of sunshine, loving the dry weather, happily knackered!-) max 10 deg 5 now at 8pm
On 15 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, total cloud cover, haar setting in for a time around 9am but lifting again to leave us in all day greyness, NE’ly breeze with occasional fine drizzle, max temp 8˚, typical East Coast Blues weather while the West is basking in sunshine and enjoying temps as high as 17˚ as predicted on the news this morning. That’s what happens when HP is stuck just N of Shetland, further west than on the 30d forecast; from experience, this can go on for weeks but at least it’s dry and the ground is drying. 5˚ at 10pm.
On 15 Mar 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The weekend was pleasant and warm in the sunshine, but it is now cloudy and cool, at least it's dry. The ground is still heavy from all the rain this winter though.
On 15 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was indeed a beautiful day only a little cloud here n there in the afternoon max 12 deg feeling a little cooler with the ese'ly breeze, some lovely cirrus cloud around the sunset and temp dropped for the evening. Slight grass frost again this morning soon clearing with the sunshine, mostly blue sky with some cloud about, E'ly breeze a bit stronger today making it feel quite fresh when taking a break from digging, good for drying the ground out though, 8 deg at 10.30 feeling around 6 with the wind.
On 14 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 with frosted grass in sheltered spots, brilliant sunshine all day though not as warm as yesterday with only 13˚ max temp, there was a light but cool SE’ly breeze blowing all day, straigh off the North Sea, whereas a friend reported 15˚ in Tomintoul, well NW of us. 3˚ at 10pm. The Scandinavian High has moved NW-wards and is now centered on Shetland, so we’ll be in for cloudy & cool for the rest of the week it would seem, so there you go, Gerry, even we can’t have it all, though two days of spring sunshine is better than none at all.
On 14 Mar 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Now I know where the warmth went - Paddy has it up in Aberdeen. While the weekend was sunny there was a biting wind coming in from the east to north-east that made it cold outside. The conservatory showed the strength of the sun by warming to 80F which makes it ideal for clothes drying once again. I put up an outside thermometer yesterday where it can be read form indoors as well. Struggled up to 60F and was down to 40F overnight. The ground has dried nicely since the Tuesday night deluge but in digging a hole in my orchard water appeared 6ins down. Hoping that the next part of the forecast is on track as well to bring the burst of spring. Would be nice if it made it to the weekend though. Spotted some frogspawn in a ditch walking to the station this morning.
On 14 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sunday was dry mostly cloudy with a few sunny spells max 12 deg clear starry night with a light grass frost this morn. in places and a touch of mist, 3 deg at 8.30 a.m bright sunshine n blue sky looks like a nice day for the garden..
On 14 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
sharp frost this morning after a clear night following a cloudy day. Can't believe I 'll be fishing in the sun tomorrow on the open day of the trout season. Tis the Ides of March and as we know Caesar was killed for not paying for his permit to fish in the Rubican!
On 13 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Already 10˚C at 7.30, sunny with only a light S’ly breeze, HP block over Scandinavia a day early? Cloud moved in from the west by midday but not before the temperature had risen to a staggering 16˚, warmest so far this year. Under cloud cover we still had 12˚, down to 6˚ by 10pm. MO forecasts a sunny day tomorrow.
On 13 Mar 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// mid March and still the winds blow from the North, they have been doing this for awhile which means it's freezing cold in the sunshine, although you can seek out the Suns warmth in a sheltered spot. Last year I recall these northerly winds blowing from the north on most days up until at least end of May. When they turned south it was a time to celebrate, but it will be interesting to see if these Northly winds prevail this year. Channel Islands
On 13 Mar 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Re local weather variability. I recall a holiday in Austria with some very heavy rain causing landslides, flooding and some fatalities but then I climbed up and over a mountain ridge and it was a different world. Babbling mountain streams, not brown raging torrents, no signs of any rain at all. You couldn't have a better demonstration of how the mountains affect the weather. From the 'settled science dept' of spaceweather and 'we know everything about the sun so it can't be controlling Earth climate' comes 'For reasons that are only partially understood geomagnetic storms favour the weeks around equinoxes..' Lovely day yesterday as the cloud cleared to blue sky. And the same so far today. No excuse for not getting to work in the garden.
On 13 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday mostly cloudy but nice and dry with a glimpse or two of sunshine, max 12 and mild enough over night to only need a small wheelbarrow load of logs in the boiler to top up hot water house heating not really necessary, happy days :) spinach and cabbage seeds planted last Sunday up indoors by Friday, kids n me out in the garden to make the most of this calm spell..
On 12 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A wet day today, grey and overcast with a S’ly breeze, on leaving Oldmeldrum we had 12˚C, the max here at home was 10˚ and still 7˚ at 11.45pm. Yes, RON, and the sea also has a moderating influence both ways, it’s often warmer or colder a bit further north of us, by the time you get to Moray, you’re in a different climate altogether; I remember an old gent who once told me that Easter Ross was the pick of Britain.
On 12 Mar 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Fog was the story for yesterday. Trains were running late and at one station I overheard the conductor saying that the driver was having trouble seeing the signals. I always thought that this must be an issue as there were times at my old station that the signal down the line was lost in the fog. There were places where the fog lifted and the sun came through before arriving in London. Blue skies all the way and I had a nice late afternoon walk around town before heading for home. Light fog this morning that has lifted to overcast and bright with a breath of wind. The London airports operating on an easterly pattern at the moment. Spaceweather has another forecasting blip as a CME that was to miss us didn't and sparked off some nice aurora activity.
On 12 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: once more demonstrates the great regional variability of weather and climate in northern Scotland, even at a small scale level. What we see out of our windows is not what everyone else is getting. The distance east and west or nearness to the coast can have more importance than how far north or south we are and then of course even small changes of altitude over short linear distances adds to the complexity of experience. Back in the 1980s just 17 miles north of me and 1000 feet higher, I was digging my car out of a snowdrift whilst people were walking around Blair Atholl in shorts and T shirts. One April a friend in Mintlaw was lining out his seedlings while my seed boxes were still frozen
On 11 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
No idea what the morning temperature was, far too busy with being on holiday, but driving around northern Aberdeenshire today under a mostly cloudy sky with the odd light shower it got up to 11°C when we were up in bonny Huntly, gradually dropping to 5° by evening in a cold S'ly breeze. What was remarkable to see as we drove around was the remains of snow heaps that had been pushed off roads and pavements and chewed up grass verges from snow ploughing. I reported about 10 days ago the friends of ours had been doing cross country skiing in these parts, there was a lot of snow here the we didn't have.
On 11 Mar 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
why use the commons library as the authority? because the co2 as primary cause narrative relies on creating the illusion of unquestioned and unquestionable authority and not evidence. Which makes it a religion and not science. For 30 years the soviets caught all our spies and we never caught any of theirs. It was put down to 'bad luck'. Anyone who said there was a mole was called a conspiracy theorist. After Philby circle was found [by the Americans!] MI6 said it was 'unthinkable' that people from good schools would be traitors. There is a blinkered arrogance at the root of all mass deception. co2 is just another 'philby'. Refering to authority is the way such deceptions are perpetuated and anyone who questions it is named called 'a conspiracy theorist'. co2er will ALWAYS refer to authority and not to any evidence they have done because if they had done the research into it they would dismiss it as 'terrors for children'.
On 11 Mar 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
anyone who still uses the discredited 97% of climate scientists schtick is just parroting things they have heard others say with no examination of the truth. In other words as Lenin would say they are 'useful idiots'
On 11 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Dry yesterday a few brief sunny periods a.m but cloudy for the remainder of the day, max 11 deg feeling milder last night. Cloudy this morning and 9 deg at 8.40 a.m March forecast going well, also Happy Birthday for yesterday Piers..
On 10 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4°C at 7.30, overcast but feeling milder than of late with hardly any wind, I got too hot very quickly while pruning trees, max temp 8° by 11am but then a sharp E'ly breeze set in, reminding us that spring is not yet round the corner, even though we had some late and lovely sunshine.. Going away for a couple of days before the mad spring rush we noticed that there was still snow on the hills, though not as uniformly white as last week. About 30 miles north of our home location, fairly clear night with stars out and some wispy cloud, probably about 3° at 9pm by the feel of it, don't have a mobile thermometer..== Alan Johnson lying, really? What is the world coming to? :-)
On 10 Mar 2016, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Interesting from Paul Homewood...Did Alan Johnson Lie On The Andrew Neill Show?..... "You may recall Piers Corbyn’s interview on Andrew Neill’s show last December.
About 5 minutes in, Alan Johnson, MP, interjected that the House of Commons Library had confirmed to him that afternoon that 97% of climate scientists say “that climate change is real, that it’s happening and that it’s man made”
Curious to see where the Library had got this information, I FOI’d them as follows
1) Was such advice provided by the Library to Alan Johnson?
2) If so, what is the basis for such advice?
3) If no such advice was given, what evidence does the Library have regarding Johnson’s statement?"
Read the reply ==> https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/03/10/did-alan-johnson-lie-on-the-andrew-neill-show/
On 10 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Glorious spring high pressure type weather with warmth in the sun, cool breeze and some quite sharp frost last night. Reminds me of so many springs in the central Highlands. Hills still decked in snow
On 09 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, much milder feel today, blackbirds singing early, foggy, overnight rain still lingering, drying up by 10am but staying mostly cloudy with the odd ray of sunshine, max temp 6˚, keen, cold & moisture laden NW’ly breeze, clearish night, 1˚ by 10pm. MO saying Sun/Mon will be warmer.
On 09 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Rainy n windy feeling chilly easing as the day progressed a few sunny spells followed by a few more showers calmer and partly clear tonight.
On 09 Mar 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Wind driven rain overnight is today's story. I heard some of it but the amount was so great that I could see there puddles down my garden from my bedroom window. The brook beside the road to the station was full and lakes had appeared in the fields. Somebody had crashed their car into the hedge at the end of the road - possibly aquaplaned on a stream of water coming across. More lakes and brimful brown streams from the train and what looked like a road near my house blocked by water. Returning home might be interesting as on a previous occurrence of heavy night rain, the road flooded in the evening as the waters fed through. Brightened up in town and a little warmer than of late. Was this the R3 at work?
On 08 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7:30, we also had Christmas Card weather, Ron, as it started snowing heavily on a SW’ly breeze from 6:30 onwards for about 3 hours, after which the sun came out big time and by midday it had all gone, max temp 8˚, it got really warm in our big tunnel,. But the sun disappeared behind clouds after 1pm and it got markedly cooler for the rest of the day, 4˚ by 9.30pm. That’s three days in a row we’ve been getting up to a white landscape.
On 08 Mar 2016, Derek G. wrote:
Big Joe Bastardi is going for a 'scorcher' of a summer for most of the US, then a possible 2010 style winter as La Nina brings the ice down.
On 08 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Last couple of days have been mostly dry and overcast by day with occasional sunny spells max 7 - 8 deg. raining this eve. 6 deg at 6.45pm
On 08 Mar 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Black Pearl - I had low hopes of an improvement given that the Blue Labour party won power under the Heir to Blair. And that has been borne out. Dudd claimed that she was a conservative because Baroness Thatcher believed in global warming and she was a conservative. Had she been informed and read her book, she would know that Thatcher renounced global warming when the facts changed - or turned out to be lies rather. As the quotation goes 'when the facts change I change my mind - what do you do?' Cold again - car showed 0 driving home at 11pm last night. Put the frost covers on for the morning but there wasn't too much on the car compared to the very white fields. Sunny spells again but keeping the average temps down so far. For all the warming claims there seems to have been a lot of snow around. Moscow scoring 160% of the norm with still a month to go.
On 08 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Almost a Xmas card scene this morning. See the Mobeeb in Scotland is now backtracking on the mildnness for the rest of the week, but standard models making a nonsense of the Red Top's coldest Easter on record prediction.
On 08 Mar 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
According to the NZ Met Service yesterday was the hottest March day on record for the Nelson region. Fine, but since records only began in 1943 what does that prove and also, how do we know that the records are accurate given the temperature data manipulation from NIWA that was exposed by the NZ Climate Science Coalition a few years ago?
On 07 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, inch thick layer of overnight snow which soon melted away in brilliant sunshine all day with a max temp of 6˚, still a N’ly breeze, already 1˚ by 6pm and -2˚ again by 10pm. Boreo-arctic spring, yep, I’m not getting too excited about sowing veg yet. Morven, the highest hill in the vicinity is well and truly snow-capped.
On 07 Mar 2016, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 07 Mar 2016, Gerry
*****
Yes and we thought Ed Davy was a dimwit and could only get better .... the wrongs keep on coming dont they
On 07 Mar 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
A showery and cold weekend. Saturday morning saw some sleet with some heavy showers later and just a rare bright spell. Cold north wind. Sunday was sunnier with fewer showers but some of hail. Today there was a clear blue sky and overnight rain frozen to the windscreen. Cold wind again. El Hierro in the Canaries has an experiment using on wind power and hydro storage. Pumped storage loses around 30% of the electricity as it goes round the loop. Wind capacity was more than twice peak demand with back-up of diesel. And after 8 months in operation, the winner with 68% is....diesel!! Under prolonged windy conditions only 50% came from renewable. Meanwhile our energy crisis looms ever closer as Dudd in panic mode is trying to bribe the companies to keep fossil fuel generation in use and build more gas plants even though the halfwit has promised to close them in barely a decade. Cue massive lack interest from generators and blackouts for next winter.
On 07 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Our boreo-Arctic like Spring continues with bright blue skies highlighting the snow-topped hills contrasting with the green lower landscapes with the first tentative signs of re-growth. Herald (Glasgow) reports a prediction of a record-cold Easter, but could rad the full piece online as I don't subscribe to this paper, but if it's another Exacta/ Nathan Roa piece, then I'll take it with a load of road salt!
On 06 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, thin layer of overnight snow, beautiful sunny day with the by now obligate N’ly sharp wind, feeling warm in sheltered spots despite a max temp of only 4˚, somewhat cloudier afternoon, -2˚ again by 10pm.
On 06 Mar 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
March forecast going well. Everything from sleet. Snow and hail showers here last few days. Snow mainly settled on highest ground as expected.
On 06 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mostly drizzly on & off today some showers a little sleety, a bit chilly and max 5 deg. reached 10 in the polytunnel, met now talking a milder end to the week, must admit would be nice to see a return of milder weather to get some food growing..
On 06 Mar 2016, east side wrote:
Very heavy snowfall in Moscow last week.
Freezing conditions in Eastern France for the last 5 days down to -5C.
Blossom had started to come out on trees, but as Piers suggested, early march is now very cold with almost daily avalanche warnings in the alps thanks to very heavy snowfall.
On 06 Mar 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Just when it started to cool down a few degrees last week we've had another heat spike this weekend with temps of 27 here yesterday and about 29 today. A hot south westerly has made it very uncomfortable today. We had a typical warmist alarmist report on the news tonight about the lowest Arctic sea ice levels recorded. However, since reliable records began in 1953 it obviously doesn't take into account when the North West Passage was open to shipping in 1922.
On 05 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some really nice spells of blue sky and sunshine throughout today mixed with cloudy periods & cold at times sleety rain. Max 6 - 7 deg but feeling colder with a chilly nw breeze, Polytunnel reached 15 for a time nice to work in setting up for Spring, partly cloudy and 2 / 3 deg at 6.30 pm
On 05 Mar 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//International Business a Times: UFOs are controlling our sun says Russian ufologist
On 05 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, even stronger and more biting NE’ly wind today with a copious supply of mostly rain showers with occasional sleet in the morning, somewhat drier in the afternoon with a max temp of 3˚ but already going down to 2˚ by 4.30pm and a few snow flakes falling just then. All exactly as forecast by Piers so far this month, proper snow in higher and further inland areas; our location is not very representative because of its proximity to the sea.
On 04 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, a raw early spring day with a biting NE’ly wind and short showers throughout, quite sunny in between with a max temp of 7˚ and fabulous cloudscapes, clear evening with fewer clouds, stars out in force, 1˚ at 9pm.
On 04 Mar 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Interesting this morning as there was ice on the car but not frost. It was water that had frozen from rain that I heard during the night. Clear and chilly all day today. WUWT has a piece suggesting that the sudden outbreak of whale beachings in the North Sea may have a human element. Here's a clue - where would you find the largest groupings of off shore windmills? On top of research pointing to the low frequency having an effect on people and animals onshore it could be that the vibration transmitted into the sea bed and radiating out in the sea from the windmills is disorientating them. There is also the percussive shocks of site surveying and construction that can spread for over 30 miles. This will be one to watch.
On 04 Mar 2016, paul wrote:
Sunny and quite mild in Lowestoft with max of 8.7c so far today,
On 04 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Not much overnight but snowing around 7.30 a.m this morning gave a dusting for the kids to have a mess about before school :) still snowing now at 9 a.m although a mix of sleet and rain in it so not sticking atm but patches here n there around, a lot of counties seeing the white stuff here this morn.
On 04 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yellow warning for snow and ice including us in Leinster for overnight into 4th has been a parky day 3/3/16 with a mix of sun and cold showers, nw breeze with some snow blowing in just a little to scatter the outside table around 9.50 pm and freeze in a while later, was trying to snow again around an hour or so and again hail sleet snow shower now just after midnight..
On 03 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, yesterday’s winter wonderland disappeared as the morning wore on, really sunny day but with a cold NW’ly wind, max temp 6˚, down to 1˚ by 9pm, frost underfoot.
On 03 Mar 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The wind really got up last night all of sudden and blew stuff all around the garden, heavy items at that. It only lasted about 20 minutes but seemed wierd. It wasn't during a shower, it just seemed unusual.
On 03 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Another bumper ski season reported at Glenshee--and children continue to know what snow is!!
On 03 Mar 2016, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Thundersnow here yesterday ! Didn't last long sadly.
On 02 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, a bit of a surprise after yesterday’s mildness, cloudy but the sun came through soon enough and we had a warm morning with a max of 7˚, got quite hot in our tunnel filling trays. However, when the sun disappeared before midday, it got markedly colder, down to 2˚ and by 2pm it started snowing, lightly first, then heavy wet flakes, continuing to 6pm, winter wonderland like for you, Ron. 0˚ at 9.30pm under a half clear sky. == Now then, on Monday, MO forecast snow for today, yesterday it was going to be heavy rain, this morning it was going to be dry altogether - so much for their computerised donkey tail. In any case, Piers is spot on.
On 02 Mar 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Wet yesterday but no frost to scrape off the car. Cold. Dried up by evening. Cloud cleared overnight to give a lovely start to the day which soon deteriorated on the way into London with rain. Cold wind. Very gloomy during the morning but has stopped raining and brightened up after lunch. The MetO will shortly be claiming the warmest winter on the cherry-picked record. Nicely cheating by using 1910 as their start point. And how much have their records been fiddled to achieve this one wonders? And will there be any mention of the natural phenomenom of El Nino having an effect in making our winter warmer than average. If the expected El Nina follows it should be fun to see how they explain the cold - no doubt that will be attributed to nature. Cold = natural warm = it must our fault.
On 02 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
a real Xmas card scene this morning, indeed one of the best this winter and short term standard models indicating more snow for us this week. Norwegian met office now backtracking on severity of frosts around the 6-9th , but still pretty nippy. GFS however predicting a mild start to the trout fishing season.
On 02 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
In like a lion in Ireland :-) hardly slept last night really full on noisey windy ole night tiles rattling and things blowing around the place, lots of hard wintery showers. Orange warning for coasts yellow here and a yellow snow ice warning here too for last night back to a general countrywide yellow this morn. Many had thunder and lightning and some snow on higher ground here in Laois. Still windy this morn and feels cold but some brief looking sunshine about. Around 4 deg feeling like 0 at 9.30 a.m with the nw wind.
On 01 Mar 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A good bit of rain yesterday & last night felt milder late evening. Back to drizzle this morning then again a little sun & feeling colder as the day progressed today 1/3/16 a few brief glimpses of sunshine. Windy & rain showers with hail and sleety in nature this aft/eve some with hail & snow in for a time around 11.30 pm and wind and showers picking up again now 5 mins to midnight feels cold out.
On 01 Mar 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine // I was in Iceland but forgot to mention a 20 something tour guide saying she could not recall so much snow as this year compared to in her childhood that must have been in the 90s anyway then I read today Iceland coldest and snowiest this year on an Icelandic tourist Facebook account
On 01 Mar 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast and with evidence of some overnight rain, not much though. Still a fairly beefy W’ly wind but much higher max temp today at 11˚, sunny from 10am onwards, a great pre-spring day, 3˚ at 8.30pm and rather cloudier again. Didn’t see the meteor last night, unfortunately, not sure whether it would have been visible here anyway.
On 01 Mar 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
we had an exploding meteor over northern Scotland last night, but do not panic good people as this was just another manifestation of increased CO2 causing meteors to explode!!
On 29 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, ground still frozen to begin with, overcast and windy, now from the SW after a full week of NW’lies, max temp 5˚, dry but raw in this damp wind which is being fed by cold Greenland air circulating around the complex Low to the NW of us, so I don’t suppose there will have been much melting today, RON, in spite of the “warm’ direction of the wind. 3˚ by 10pm, MO is forecasting snow for Wednesday.
On 29 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
A dry weekend but the easterly wind cut right through you. Strong on both days but it has dropped this morning and it was a lovely sunny start with a bit of frost around on cars and roofs but not the ground. Quite pleasant and you can feel the warmth starting to come from the sun. After Slingo's doom and gloom claims for the MetO if we vote to leave the EU and regain our sovereignty, along comes Paul Nurse. A noted global warmist who somehow seems to be an climate expert while actually being a biologist specialising in yeast. The good news is that up against Justin Webb, he was reduced to high octave ranting within 5 minutes as his pro-EU scaremongering was taken apart.
On 29 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: yes good covering of snow above 1000ft or so in the central Grampians. Took a run up through Drumochter to Treig Dam and the view along Loch Laggan to the Grey Corries and the Mamores was like a scene from the Yukon. Glorious blue skies and bright sun glinting off the icy snow cover. Saw quite a few skiers with cars parked in the laybys along the route .Prospect of more snow this week and the Norwegian Met Office are predicting double digit frosts around the 8th March for our area.
On 29 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cavan has had a bit of snow & Leitrim atm some wet snow also around the country this morning..
On 29 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yellow snow & ice warning was in place Friday night for Cork Waterford & Kerry till 3 a.m sat. Cork had snow and mountains around Waterford. Saturday we had a spell of sleety showers with hail and wet snow for a brief period around 10 a.m cleared to a chilly dry day, Sunday was cold but dry some fog last night and around 1 deg rising overnight. Woke to rain this morning around 4deg at 9 a.m
On 28 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30 and another beautiful day with wall to wall sunshine all day, a light NW’ly breeze and a max temp of 8˚ with us, going down to 2˚ by 8pm. Heard from a friend yesterday who lives about 40 miles north of us a bit further inland that they had been cross country skiing, so there is snow lying there at roughly the same height above sea level. We went south today and could see snow on the Angus hills.
On 28 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
PIERS: I am talking about the graphics just above the comments showing the 2015 and 1964 Arctic temperature spikes.
On 28 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
* stratospheric warming. Must have been on the sauce.
On 28 Feb 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address London, Chief forecaster. wrote:
CITIZENS THANKS for all comms. RON I am not sure to what you refer === DAVE (Yorkshire) Interesting idea. Btw readers should not assume us releasing or welcoming a comment means we agree or not with the content. Two more of Dave's comments are included in the Further comments item loaded earlier today discssing the cold blasts late Feb and expected early March. === ALL We have a GREAT PAUCITY of uptake for the present NEW WHOLE SPRING OFFER. This I find puzzling because (i) For present non subscribers it is great offer; (ii) For present subscribers it is also a great offer AND free gift - eg if you are a 45d sub you get 3 months extra subscription which is worth about twice what you will pay for the whole Spring now deal. Please, Think - Take-up - advise others to do too. Thanks, Piers
On 28 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
PIERS: the two Arctic temperature spike graphics should be out there on Facebook and Twiiter. ( if they are not already)
On 27 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, shaping up to a beautiful sunny day with a light NW breeze to which we have become accustomed over the last week, max temp 7˚ in the ever increasing output from the sun, down to -1˚ already by 8.30pm. Birds really beginning to sing when it’s like that.
On 27 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
With a further strategy warming underway and a splitting of the vortex this will lead to below average temps in early spring, however looking at previous events like this, I believe we are in for a hot dry Summer with alot of High pressure over us. Maybe even drought conditions in the south come August. BBQ summer.
On 26 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, overcast but still quite a hard frost to begin with, cloud breaking somewhat during the day but not as sunny as yesterday. Variable light breeze from NW to NE, max temp 5˚, dry all day which is always a bonus. 2˚ at 5.30pm. == Very interesting paper, East Side. But you know, it’s not the sun influencing the weather, it’s the termites doing press-ups, or ist the cows having unclean thoughts? Can’t remember :-)
On 26 Feb 2016, east side wrote:
Fascinating stuff turned up on SW today & was well worth looking up.
HEY it's REAL SCIENCE, based on observation not modelling!
Cosmic ray flux is up 10% in 1 year, giving further evidence of falling solar activity.
shao.az/SG/v1n2/SG_v1_No2_2006-pp-13-16.pdf
"Clinical Cosmobiology - Sudden Cardiac Death & Daily / Monthly Geomagnetic, Cosmic Ray & Solar Activity - the Baku Study (2003-2005)"
And for those in the electronic & computing age?
CRC errors/related hard resets,-caused by cosmic rays at high altitudes,-
"Cosmic radiation is a well-known cause of single-event upsets (SEU) on disruption to electrical circuits in electronic devices. It most commonly occurs & is reported for devices such as laptop computers, cell phones, & personal digital assistants.
We report 3 patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators(ICDs)who experienced SEUs during air travel that may be attributed to exposure to cosmic radiation while on commercial airline flights"
Interesting.
On 26 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Frost cleared quickly yesterday and a mix of cloud and a few shorter sunny spells, cold last night but not as cold as the last few nights and no frost. Drizzle this morning overcast again around 3/4 deg at 8.50 a.m Russ first holiday of many I had as a kid was in a caravan in Derbyshire and lots of frosty walks around Ashford Buxton Chatsworth Derwent ect very pretty at this time of year..
On 26 Feb 2016, Russ_NE Derbyshi*e wrote:
Been some bitterly cold days and icy mornings this past week. Had icy patches through to 6pm Wednesday......
On 25 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, hard frost, splendid sunny morning with a very light NW’ly breeze, an ideal winter’s day. Clouding over after midday, max temp 4˚ and dry all day, 1˚ by 9pm under an overcast sky with hardly a breath of wind.
On 25 Feb 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// well just got back from Iceland and feeling tired after two late nights of aurora hunting finally Tuesday night got some northern lights but it wasn't easy. The tour operators did their utmost to find them and only due to a very knowledgeable Icelander who knows his stuff about 500 people went home happy to have witnessed them. But not easy the graphs were giving the sun activity as a low 2 hardly a spike on the graph so has the sun gone very quiet and why?
On 25 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
As forecast, a steadily cooling week with it being at its coldest this morning. Thick frosts in the morning and clear skies. A colleague from North London had seen light snow last night and this morning. Nothing down my way. Report by statistician on temperature trends says the models are inaccurate. What a surprise. Betts of the MetO has got all upset that this has been featured in the Times and accuses them of headline chasing. He was slapped down on Twitter since of course the MetO do exactly that with their scaremongering claims. Akureyri in Iceland is seeing the highest accumulation of snow since 1995-6. Strange in the warmest year evah!
On 25 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
23rd & 24th both really frosty and icy to start with some mist across the fields, beautiful blue sky sunny days warm to work in the sun v cold in the shade around -2/-3 rising to 5-6 deg a little more cloud around during the day yesterday than Tuesday. Widespread frost again this morning but more cloud seems to have moved in since and so overcast at 8.20 a.m around -2 deg has been great having some frosty dry sunny weather..
On 25 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Fresh dusting of snow this morning and light frost. I've got the ultimate perfect forecast system now:--- I peruse the Angling Megastore catalogue, rumble through my fishing gear, dream of mild balmy days out on the lochs after the trout season opens on March 15th-and then it gets colder--simples.
On 25 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset.UK Sub wrote:
The windmills of GB did not even produce A single gig 0.77 gw this morning. Still and frosty = no lights. Green bull.
On 24 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, bright and sunny all day in a light NW’ly breeze, max temp 4˚ with a few snow and graupel showers, though not as many as yesterday. You can feel the sun getting warmer now even when it’s a cold day. Clear moonlit evening and a good old frost, -2˚ at 10pm.
On 24 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
meto 3 month is a very general forecast with no specific time periods and they still have no confidence in it to nail it to the public lest they have another 'bbq summer'. Given the 5 day is directly out the model they still haven't nailed that. I did post a while back only NASA and Met forecast in general terms while all the other models were wrong. If meto could bring in time periods to narrow it down to +- 1 day that would be more interesting. £100m. should be easy. lol.
On 23 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, frost in patches which stayed all day in shady places, otherwise a very sunny day with a cool NW’ly wind, snowed a little this morning byt not enough to really stick, max temp 4˚, clear evening under a bright not quite full moon, -1˚ by 10pm.
On 23 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Patchy ice and frost this morning -2 deg at 7.45 a.m mist cleared & blue sky and sunshine again, some big clouds later here n there another great day to work outside, max temp 6 coming in cold now at 7pm around 0 deg.
On 23 Feb 2016, JohnE wrote:
I have to agree with you John Blakely, I was thinking exactly the same and I also made some notes a number of months ago. The snowmagedon brigade got it oh so very wrong as they more often than not do.
On 23 Feb 2016, John Blakely wrote:
made some notes back in November re the winter forecast from various outlets. Have to say the Met office have nailed this one with forecast of milder, wetter, and windy conditions for much of the winter but colder later. A typical northern hemisphere El Nino winter as I understand.
On 23 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Slingo is claiming leaving the EU will damage the MetO by reducing the flow of taxpayers' cash it receives for research that helps it with the accuracy of its long term forecasts - just like the EU (accounts rejected by auditors for 21 yrs) not to check on the value for money it gets. But then it wants fairytale warming forecasts anyway. So vote Leave to cut down the MetO! Of course her claims aren't true (like that's unusual) and are just more FUD that will thrown out to scare the voters. Norway participates in EU research programmes and they wisely stayed independent so there is no reason why the funds won't still flow and that the UK won't still contribute. Piers is spot on with the observation that the EU splits both parties. It has done for years but Red Labour has hidden it better, mainly because the big treaties arose before Blair came along. His heir in the Blue Labour is going to have a greater struggle this time. The Leave Alliance launches soon.
On 23 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Ps cheers for pdf update Chief :-)
On 23 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Opened the back door this morning and the sound of bird song all around outside was incredible, put a little stale homemade bread on the bird table and they all flew in for a bite to eat, beautiful clear blue sky sunny morning with only a small whisp of cloud here n there. Around 2 - 3 deg at 8 a.m Polytunnel all ready for Spring so veg plots next while it's dry, tackled a smaller raised plot as big plots in need of drying out a bit, cool to start then warm whilst working in the sun, looks like the met giving dry till at least Thursday with uncertainty re the weekend precip. Lovely clear starry night and full moon, looks like a bit of frost in store tonight for the ground..
On 22 Feb 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address London, Chief forecaster. wrote:
CITIZENS! Thanks for all comms. Always useful. Steve, Dave, All. Although one can have many images of many politicians in this Eu debate where the parties are all over the place we could concentrate on what individuals say about accounability of science and political decisions. In the case of George Galloway he did an excellent interview with me on the scam of GlobalWarming and his oposition to Eu of course is opposition to Eu diktats on this and other matters. Tony Blair who has resurfaced we note supports the falsities excuded from the UN of Weapons-Of-Mass-destruction in Iraq and the IPCC on Global Warming. He is very for the Eu. +++ Back on NOW; have a look at my SnowHope pdf on line and send in comments which we could load on line before release here if appropriate. Its an interesting situation! Encourgage people to TAKE UP THE OFFERS NOW! Piers
On 22 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 but still frosty pockets, splendid morning with barely a cloud and a stiff NW’ly breeze, max temp 7˚ which was quite surprising given the wind, but then the sun is now making itself felt more, clouds arriving in the afternoon but still with sunshine, rain showers in the evening, 1˚ at 10pm.
On 22 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hate to drawn into political stuff but George Galloway is a dangerous. extreme left wing clown. I wish someone would nail him. Rant over.
Models have backed away from snow this week, as I thought they would. At least it looks dry for most.
On 22 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. wrote:
I had to laugh today as George Galloway had the woman at the BBC cornered ,she was trying to belittle him and he nailed he good and proper,George is on the out of the EU it was on the daily politics on 2.
It made a gloomy day much better, mild and damp here in Dorset.
On 22 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
There was some pleasant sun for a while on Saturday but it gradually clouded over to give some rain. Not as much as SM forecast. Warm but not out of the expected range for February. Sunday was grey and overcast with a strong wind too. The moon was out at 7pm but come morning it was back to cloud and some wind driven rain. Brightened up through the morning in London. The blackbirds in my garden are sparring over territory at the moment. Snowdrops and daffodils in flower. Cherry plum has been in blossom. Crocuses coming up too now. WUWT showing how a US temp station that is voluntary and has numerous gaps in its record is considered to be one of the best even though the record is padded with made up data. Food production has been hit in S Korea due to the cold and the Pakistan government has produced a video to warn the population of global cooling by 2019.
On 21 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, sunny morning, cloudier afternoon, strong W’ly breeze with occasional very light showers, max temp 7˚, clear evening with the almost full moon, 1˚ at 9.30pm. Heard from a friend that skiing was shut down on Ben Nevis, too windy. Heard my first thrush and blackbird singing today, chaffinches have been on for a few days, pretty much the normal time for them to start up.
On 21 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - Yes I think we have both mentioned a cold March previously. I always thought Feb and March would be colder than December and January this winter. I would rather it be sunny and mild in March so I can start some projects outside.
I doubt we will see widespread snow next week (like sm are showing) as the start of this trend should in theory (see my last post) be towards the end of the month and into March and more often than not, we see a brief mild spell just before these prolonged colder spells.
On 21 Feb 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
And so the starting gun has been fired and we are off for the battle for the freedom of the UK. Ending our membership of the EU will remove any commitments to global warming required by them but don't forget that our political idiots have put in place laws that are worse. Booker today has a good piece on the chicanery that the Blue Labour tories are using to keep the taxpayers' cash rolling in for the windmills. As the windmills will always take preference for their expensive electricity the conventional and reliable fossil fuel generators are becoming less interested as it becomes uneconomic for them - see early Ferrybridge closure. So they will now be given taxpayers' cash so that all electricity becomes more expensive. Beyond stupid is the phrase here. To get round the Tory pledge to cut subsidies, the subsidy will be called a 'contract for difference'.
On 21 Feb 2016, Peterg wrote:
At the beginning of this week a blocking high will develop in the mid Atlantic. This, together with a low situated over Scandanivia, will produce a cold/very cold northerly airstream over the British Isles lasting for at least five days. By this Sunday evening a cold front will have crossed the whole of the British Isles.
On 21 Feb 2016, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Drizzle turned to a fair bit of rain yesterday all day and quite blustery with it, mild 11/12 deg. still mild breezy and constant light rain this a.m
On 20 Feb 2016, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Went fishing today a bit wet in fact a little more rain than metO forecasts a total approval of Piers R4 and very Spring like 14c in Reading Oh and Guess what!!!
In January Bitter cold on East coast of U.S.A and even wintry at times in Hong Kong with 3c and get what NASA have claimed JANUARY 2016 WAS THE HOTTEST JANUARY EVER RECORDED GLOBALLY.Come on i think there is some very serious Fraud going on here and Remember DAVID CAMERON your quip at the Commonwealth conference "I wnt to hold a conference in London next year too discuss world wide fraud Iit is a test of your metal MR CAMERON you are either be an honest Prime Minister or a corrupt one!!! This serious world wide fraud of Data fiddling even make Sepp Blatter and FIFA look honest
On 20 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Yes piers the forecast seems back on track now, a certain weather phenomenon was predicted for next week and with the temperature contrasts over the UK it is one to watch.
On 20 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Standard models not quite agreeing, with GFS going for a largely cold outlook until the first week of March with Mobeeb vacillating on a chance of milder weather by mid next week.
DAVID(Yorkshire): interesting comments, though depressing for a keen angler itching to get out after the giant Ferox trout of Highland lochs. Would confirm my gut instincts, expressed in earlier comments, if the PV takes the southern route
On 20 Feb 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Cyclone Winstone is hitting Fiji https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/fiji-braces-for-predicted-strongest-cyclone-to-hit-main-island after already causing damage in Tonga.
On 20 Feb 2016, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London wrote:
CITIZENS! THANKS FOR BRILL COMMS! A burst of Spring is upon us for South Br+Ir this weekend 20-21st Feb while there is more snow / blizzards in Scotland. THIS very well confirms the Br+Ir forecast N/S contrasts first issued 100d ahead and gives the opportunity for an amazing offer to have Br+Ir MARCH 45d (+Feb free) for only 15 quid . This forecast is also given free to people coming to our public meeting on Sun 21st in Essex [NB existing subscribers have a month added on to present sub] <=> SEE HOME PAGE www.Weatheraction.com for more info on both. This weekend also WATCH R4, Major Red, period 20-22nd ramping up winds in Scotland and Tropical cyclone developments.
On 19 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, sunny start but didn’t last, clouding over quickly in a strong and chilly SW’ly breeze, rain starting up after 11am & lasting most of the afternoon, max temp 5˚, down to 4˚ by 10pm, by which time it was a little clearer again and still breezy.
On 19 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I have been researching the SSW recorded in early February predicted by Piers and it is expected the AO will go negative around the 26th of this month and stay like that for around 4 weeks.
A polar vortex spit is likely, with one piece pivoting into East Asia and a second towards Europe. If that piece stays to the north of Europe, then temps will stay mild but if it drops further South,then cold weather will affect western Europe. Winter to arrive for the UK in next three weeks?
On 19 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Partly cloudy with some nice sunny spells yesterday morning remained dry until after lunch when a few drizzly cool showers moved in on n off for a while clearing again later and part cloudy with some stars out, not as starry as the night before in the early hours when you could mostly make out most of the 5 planets up for viewing from Jan end til the 20th of this mth.. Grey drizzly morning so far today..
On 18 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, sunny all day, max temp 5˚ with a fairly cold SW’ly wind, moon & stars out tonight, 0˚ at 9pm. == Richard, Steve, re the influence of the sun, here is a joke that could come from the warmist stable: “why is the moon more important than the sun? Because it shines at night when it’s dark, whereas the sun shines during the day when it is light anyway!” Probably not very far from their logic.
On 18 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Richard - it is indeed amazing that there is so little focus on solar research and that no observational satellite or probe is due to launch until next year. The last one blew up on launch - warmist sabotage? Seems in the US a claim has been made that Supreme Court judge who ruled against Obama/EPA regs to close down coal industry and died days after was murdered. Fantasy? Time may tell. The SM forecast snow didn't appear down my way. Nasty cold rain by the time I journeyed home. A clear night on Tuesday gave way to a cloudy morning with no frost. Cloudy this morning but the sun has through - cold. Would be thinking that Feb has been about the norm for my area so far. No matter - I am sure the MetO can create what is needed for a record 2016 by 0.000001C.
On 18 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
I see sus. obs are running a kickstarter for an app that predictes earthquakes etc from solar activity [the heretics lol!]. The idea earthquakes can be predicted from solar activity is not a million miles away from climate/weather being predicted by solar activity. Its quite damming of the official science bodies who seem to think the sun is a meaningless light in the sky that real research and apps that could save lives is being funded thro kickstarter by youtubers while they squander millions on co2 loaded supercomputers. The promo for the app is towards the end of the report https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riAJwE5Nmqk
On 18 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The snow/ice warning for Ireland that met put up for overnight 16th into 17th was true for a few places this morning, I think Cavan Leitrim + a couple more saw a little snow, the rain & cloud here prevented any frost and ice but a cool start of 2 deg. some mist/fog across the fields gave way to a nice day partly cloudy with some nice sunny spells. Some light grauple or fine hail around after lunch, cleared to nicer again after. Max temp 5/6 deg 2nd time the tunnel had reached 11 deg this week back down to 0 in there by 4.45 pm starry night and noticed frost out after midnight. Snow/ice warning up for specific counties tonight Cavan ect ..
On 18 Feb 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More on last night's storm in our region http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/77011943/torrential-rain-causes-flooding-in-nelson-region We were out again at 10 pm last night propping up that panel of the greenhouse!
On 17 Feb 2016, brandon wrote:
well It's nearly midnight here snow was forecast for the South and at the moment I can hear the rain tapping away outside my window... was hoping for snow but James madden has really over exaggerated this one and just when I thought he couldn't get any worse!? widespread snowfall was absolute tosh! I really do think that little bit of snow for the South coast that was also forecast from the bbc was tosh all hope is lost for any decent snow this year roll on next year for portsmouth!
On 17 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, quieter than yesterday, light SW’ly breeze & mostly dry but overcast, max temp 4˚, late sunshine and clear evening with a few stars out, -1˚ at 10pm.
On 17 Feb 2016, Lee Barrett wrote:
Hi piers am writing to see why the whole Spring forcast hasn't come up on my area and keep up the good work & am continuing my work to get people on the correct side of our climate instead of this global warming nonsense Iv meantioned u aswell. Thank you :)
On 17 Feb 2016, east side wrote:
All these so called "political leaders" are just TV or media personalities.
People esp, those living in big cities have v little idea about the real world.
Observations are 2nd hand or come out of "virtual" or the M25~!
Swim the Serpentine in winter?
That's real world!
Internet is fine for certain kinds of communication, but nothing put there can ever be proved as being verifiably true.
This is exactly the space the "Warmists" decided to invade to pervert public opinion.
Explain to someone how the stars are aligned just before dawn, or even lunar phases.
You'll get a blank stare in most offices, despite the fact the moon regulates the size & timing of tides.
It doesn't seem accidental to me,-"dreamers" stuck in their virtual worlds, "Simulating" stuff by computers aren't in places like OULU Finland or N Canada, or BAS, where you SEE aurora almost daily, & if you go out in winter not properly dressed you will die of cold fast.
They're stuck in "comfort zone Bracknell!
On 17 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Maria, I love talking politics and get a real buzz out of it, I also know when politics are concerned you get the right,left,and centre all at each other like at the moment as our political landscape in on the cusp of a great revolution one way or another, as for newspapers there is not one reason as I see it to belittle the likes of piers just to get at his brother and his views which he is entitle to, it is not necessary and it is wrong, saying that people like me who are savvy in the ways of the press can see right through the hubris..... Weather ...it is grey and a total contrast this morning, as the grey clouds spread in ,the sky was a pinkish hue ,7c temp. Not much wind. Have a great day you all.
On 17 Feb 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
We wanted rain in our region but maybe not quite like this http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/76995522/severe-thunderstorm-watch-issued-for-nelson-region It wasn't much fun trying to fix one of the panels in a greenhouse that was coming out before and we hope it will hold overnight until we can have another go tomorrow.
On 16 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, strong and raw SSW wind, end of winter charm for the time being as the little snow we had slowly thawed throughout the day, hardly anything left tonight. Temps gradually rising to 4˚ at 10pm. Overcast all day, dry to 3.30pm, then some light rain for a couple of hours, dry thereafter.
On 16 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Windy this morning, met.ie had a yellow wind warning up mid morning that was issued at 7 a.m for all of Ireland - 3pm it seemed to move through by midday and the rain returned as it passed through. Still raining now at 9.20 pm around 6/7 deg & high humidity. Glad I risked it for a biscuit and cleaned the outside of the tunnel in the lovely afternoon sun yesterday, can work in out of the rain now. Steve Dorset I get that politics can be dis heartening and your right in that it's not the right topic for inducing happiness, sorry if I seemed to take your comment out of context it was not my intent ;) just a shame to see people who do positive good get misrepresented by bad articles. What I commented about was out of frustration as like Paddy said too much control has been used through fear and lies.. those that do it should know we see it if only in false hope that they might stop and think. Still raining lol!-)
On 16 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Minus 4 c this morning but never the less what a wonderfully clear start to the day, the air was wonderfull almost, good that the roads were gritted, but saying that tha minor roads are not treated here in Dorset so you have to mind how you drive, one car ended up in a pile after black ice from water draining fron the fields. Luckily no one was hurt, it was lovely to see the dog rolling in the frost on the grass full of the joy of life this morning , she is a golden Deceiver, sorry Retreaver but that is my joke. Be happy enjoy the weather.
On 15 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, some more snow overnight but still only about 2cm lying, beautifully sunny all day, max temp 4˚, steady N'ly breeze, perfect winter's day, -2 at 10pm, huge halo around the moon. == I'm not a very political person but I would agree with Maria that a bit of politics on here is quite ok, check out Piers' own remarks in the 27th Dec blog about bombing Syria etc, the CO2 fraud is cut of the same filthy cloth, same interests behind it as in every other scam going. It's also necessary to point out the total lockstep of all mainstream media on all issues that concern the control of people through fear and lies. It was Marshall McLuhan who said that the third world war will be an information war - we're in the thick of it, and most of what passes for news is misinformation!
On 15 Feb 2016, Jan 30d wrote:
I would just like to say a big thankyou to Piers for sorting my sub out. I very much appreciate what you have done.
Jan
On 15 Feb 2016, Bob Latin wrote:
As an engineer having attempted computer simulations I came not to rely on these because the assumptions were often too many and varied.
As to so called Climate Change the following article is worth a read, if you have not already, and note the conclusion is that Climate Change models can never be scientifically validated:
http://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2016/02/16319/
If you want to undermine the opposition go for their apparent strongest position which is their modelling and show that such methodology is unscientific and request them to prove otherwise but not by arm waving and dubious non-scientific pronouncements.
On 15 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I agree with Steve it would be far better to concentrate and the weather and the science behind it than politics. We all know there is an agenda to make money as highlighted many times on here. Disproving AGW with accurate forecasts and focusing on that would be far more beneficial and appealing to new customers.
On 15 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
When it comes to global warming or climate change or whatever their latest name is you can't avoid politics as that is what it is now. None of their science stands up to scrutiny. They employ a religious notion of consensus. They avoid any reasoned debate. Employ insults and legal threats to stifle free speech. Because it involves taxation and government policy it has to be politics. Rain most of Saturday for which Met on Friday said 60% chance at most. Up to 40% for Sunday when it was sunny all day but a cold easterly wind. Southern rail warned of snow on its website this morning as the sun shone. Central Park in New York cancelled an ice festival due to the cold. Some brutal cold coming the way of a lot of the US and this during a strong El Nino that brings warm? What if it wasn't there? Independent in printed form will disappear soon as it only sells 28000 copies.
On 15 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
well doing a bit of digging the indie [and other papers] has done [in a steady drip drip drip] several hatchet jobs on piers in the last few months but presumably the target is not him but JC. But NOT one of the reports has tried to dismiss WA with science. None have done prediction v actual tests and then compared it to the same time frame with the £100m supercomputer SM to find which has a better hit rate. Curiuosly none of the co2 science groups have done either although i suspect they have but didn't like the results so keeping it quiet and don't bring it up and make sure they never face him in debate. A challenge kept open on this site month after month. BTW before christmas most the SM predicted this period of icy blast as warmer than average. Only NASA and bizarely the METO main model said it might be colder but METO must of thought it an error or 'incovenient' result and kept it quiet until it got to the 5 day lol. Last thing they would do is tell the public 100 days ahead.
On 15 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
So yeah in short let them take on the termites next maybe they will listen lol cos us lil fish are far too busy growing food to eat to help pay our for our expensive electric and fuel bills as the turbines are doing nothing to reduce our bills as I see it and busy growing trees and hedge row plants and feeding birds that have long been lacking due to bad country side practises. Now il get back to the Weather and make the most of the rare blue sky sunny days we get for the reasons above!
On 15 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
politics does kinda come into the weather and always will while there is big bucks to be made at the expense of the countries people for weather that has been happening for years and will continue to happen. They never mention much on the tribes that have been forced off their land years ago while they clear it for big oil profits like in Canada and create more pollution than a country's coal fires put together in the name of us using oil without guilt. Still as long as we do as we are told and not cause any ripples of opinions I'm sure all will be well in the world..lol!-) The whole way of thinking needs a total overhaul to transform issues this late in the day and would involve everybody and science being accountable and powers to be being honest and open to new thinking.
On 15 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Clear and lovely starry night, frost setting in overnight and widespread this morn. -2 to begin 3 deg now at 11 a.m and beautiful blue sky and sunshine so far all morning. Great weather to dig over my compost mix I put in the tunnel last month, would love to be cleaning the plastic on a day like this but would not do the flu hacking cough any good, still got to get out too good a day to miss. I won't even read any articles like that as sick of reading twisted biased bull. Full credit to anyone wishing to stand up for homeless people when there are empty property's wasting away. Read an article the other day how many working people live on the streets and subscribe to a gym for a workout warm shower and a coffee before work as they can't afford over hiked rent prices on their low wages in the uk. Over here after one homeless guy died on the streets they housed some for Xmas.. then what lol! So unfortunately with peeps like that and peeps like us choosing less heat to eat
On 15 Feb 2016, Jan wrote:
Hi Piers, why has my Feb 30d forcast been removed?
On 15 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Far to much politicking on the site at the moment, I thought it was about the weather not a diatribe about are we were on the left or the right, let's stick to the weather and see if we can get that somewhere near right,then we are getting back to a common purpose, weather we do or Weather we don't.
On 14 Feb 2016, Henk wrote:
Hey Pierce...I checked tonight the windspeed in my country (Holland)...8 Bft small part Southwest Coast...20 km from the Coast only 3 bft...I see this more lately and is in my view not a normal weather pattern....
Henk
On 14 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, bright and white with a little snow, W’ly breeze bringing the occasional graupel/snow pellet shower (http://weather.about.com/od/g/g/graupel.htm), changing into the N during the day. Some great sunny spells and impressive cloudscapes, max temp 4˚, lengthy snow shower around midday but still barely 5mm of it lying. More snow further north and on the mountains. 0˚ at 8pm. == Well spoken, PIERS, re housing and the slimy Indy, same old, same old, people have such short memories but hopefully it’ll go down the tubes soon as more people wake up. Which brings me to a plug: http://newsbud.com/ - check this out, a truly independent and crowdfuned news outlet, starting up in September, collecting pledges now; it has grown out of http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/, James Corbett is a participant, I’ve posted quite a few links of his re the CO2 & AGW scam.
On 14 Feb 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// just to not the daily mail is saying we are going into an ice age due to the sun being calm no flares or spots whatsoever, I wouldn't mind ordinarily but next weekend I am off to Iceland grrrrrrr !
On 14 Feb 2016, east side wrote:
I wouldn't worry much about the Independent, it went down the toilet years ago.
There's a place for ethics & sticking to the same line come what may.
Even "Mad Margaret" had a v little reported change of heart & mind after she left No 10. She stated pretty clearly, global warming was another scam, on the lines of many cartels, groups & scams she did try to end. (eg. the EU budget!)
Ind & the London Evening Standard are owned by the same Oligarch. They could hardly be said to be"independent"!
+
They're losing money so fast, it's coming up for curtains for one or the other v fast.The web has now made it look plain irrelevant.
Both papers blatently told people to vote for "more of the same" clueless Chipping-Norton-Eton morons.
You know the "BBQ & pony ride hooray henries", with the corrupt R*bekah_Br**ks who claimed their paper didn't hack the voice mails of the phones of murder victims...
Justice in the UK today?
You have to be joking?
The whole system is corrupt.
On 14 Feb 2016, Piers_corbyn wrote:
CONTINUED One main route for the super-rich to get richer is the property market of money laundering, property theft and destruction of housing rights. The other main route is energy charge hikes and the de-industrialisation of the uk and west and reLocation of Co2 production to India and china - aided by taxes you pay to the Eu, in the name of saving the planet. The question is: Could the imperious Indy explain how mankind's 4% contribution to the atmospheric content of the trace gas Co2 control the other 96% which it must do if man is to blame for the (anyway delusional) Co2 driven so-called climate change. When will the Indy campaign for Termite wars - to destroy termites which produce 10x man's co2 equivalent? Of course they wont, they are ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE TO DEFEND CARBON CON THEFT BY
CORPORATIONS &THE SUPER-RICH. They the bbc, aljazeera and the whole political establishment want to suppress all debate on it in case The public+Labour see through their lies and save industry.
On 14 Feb 2016, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) wrote:
Thanks All for comms. Further to below the Indy's malevolent dishonest imperious piece shows it is now the NEW NASTY on line paper. A false friend of those who wish to do good while in the end backing the political establishment and the super-rich. They cannot resist trying to lead those who claim a god-given right to tell my brother what to do, but they have a problem there: All Corbyns think for themselves. I have 2 Qs for them. 1. Didnt the housing campaign they mention - Elgin avenue 1975 acheive things they would supposedly support? Rehousing 200 people on oct15 to otherwise empty council housing & leading 2yrs camaigning later to forcing the Tory glc to give tenancies to all families+single people in their 10,000 squatted properties. Support for homeless & poorly housed in fighting to use+defend council housing - the best housing idea for100yrs - is key to defend ALL HOUSING rights from money launderers & property thieves. If council housing goes Prices+bad landlordism increase.
On 14 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
The independent on sunday has an article trying to paint piers as a crank who 'behaves badly' by writing "whose appearance on a recent and much-criticised Radio 4 documentary about climate change suggested that the Labour leader should do everything in his power to keep his elder brother off the airwaves until at least the next general election." and they dig out a picture of piers from 1975 outside a housing protest. Which suggests they all very frightened of what piers has to say? http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/george-osborne-joins-the-long-unhappy-list-of-politicians-embarrassed-by-brothers-behaving-badly-a6872641.html
On 14 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was more overcast with the odd cold drizzly shower, max 5-6 deg with the E'ly wind making it feel quite raw, clear for a time & thought we were in for a slight frost last night but more incoming cloud kept that at bay. A few sunny spells this morn. Coming in cloudy now late morning 4 deg. a little breezy..
On 14 Feb 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
5.7 quake for Christchurch NZ today https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/as-it-happened-major-earthquake-strikes-christchurch. The hot weather continues in NZ and after a few weeks we're starting to get used to it. Had to stack a delivery of winter firewood in this heat which wasn't much fun! February is known as the hottest month in NZ and it certainly is living up to its reputation this year. It did start in January though. We sleep with a small fan on the dressing table until about 4 am when its cool enough to turn it off otherwise we just wouldn't be able to sleep.
On 13 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clear start with a sharp E’ly wind which again lasted all day, however, today we had really good sunshine and in the shelter of the wind it felt like very early spring, max temp 5˚. Tonight a dusting of snow, a few millimitres, but snow nevertheless, -2˚ at 10pm.
On 12 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, hard frost, overcast and crisply cold with a biting NNE’ly wind which gradually turned E’ly as the day went on. We had a yellow snow warning but bar a couple of flakes we only had rain showers, max temp 3˚. I heard from a friend in Keith that they had snow further north but we here are too close to the sea, unless it comes straight down on a N’ly wind. Feeling almost mild at 10pm even in only 2˚.
On 12 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was misty & a little chilly to start then a mix of cloudy with sunny spells during the day but again a nice dry day. Today grey with some light drizzle off n on max 6 deg. Nice to hear the birds getting lively and crocus's are just up here and snow drops nearly open, tulips also gaining some growth, nights opening up a little more..nice..
On 12 Feb 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address; LONDON wrote:
CONTINUED. It would be fair to add that for BI+Eu 7-10th while there has been good snowfalls in Scotland and some further South the snow / no snow divide was further N than WA forecast. It is worth noting that had we been only talking about rain no-one would have noticed much that there was less rain in the south than we expected as long as there was some (which there was). However when it comes to snow which comes or not on a 1deg C temp difference it is more of an issue for obvious largely irrational (or gambling if it happens to be Xmas Day) reasons. For 11-15th It seems to be the turn of Standard Met to overstate snow prospects towards south. THESE ISSUES WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED AT OUR PUBLIC MEETING ON SUNDAY 21 FEB IN ESSEX - SEE HOME PAGE. ALL WHO REGISTER / COME WILL GET ONE MONTH FREE FORECAST ADDED ON TO WHATEVER THEY ARE SUBSCRIBED TO IF ANY.
On 12 Feb 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
THANKS ALL for superb informed comments. On this coming, Valentines, weekend & SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) (eg further to Dave, below) The forecasts were made 100d ahead before SSW (although SSWs probably implicit in chosen Look-back scenarios). Differences between what WA said 100d ahead and what standard Met (SM) says for 5,4,3... days ahead) are not to do with the present upper(5mb) & now Lower (50mb) SSW [see graphs LHS home page] but primarily the uncertainties of SM. SM has been moving towards WA view for 13/14th. We expect anyway a change towards WA in what standard methods expect from 11th ie after R4 period 7-10th because SM cannot well see through R5/R4 periods. This has clearly happened. See: (i) USA 11-15 Feb is working out well with snow in N/E & timings although not well defined in WA forecast appear to be converging [SM moving to WA]. (ii) BIEu SM is shifting MORE to WA with expected N'ly flow weakening (NB SM snowhope issued during R4). Wait for final check 15th!
On 11 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, a covering of very wet snow that fell around 6am but melted pretty quickly as th precipitation changed to rain until around 10am, thereafter sunny spells but mostly cloudy, max temp 5˚ in a cold NNE’ly breeze, -1˚ at 10pm under a clear and starry sky.
On 11 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
11 - 15th piers looks like the 15% chance option to me. Is the srat warming having an effect sooner than you calculated?? Or is the cause lower down in our atmosphere?
On 10 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, slight frost in places, brilliant start to the day in a continuing WNW breeze which kept going all day, max temp 5˚, dry and sunny all day & bracingly cold, gloriously starry evening, 0˚ at 10pm.
On 10 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Right we are all agreed meto and models are unreliable outside 3 days for our weather. This has been covered before on here by us all now over last few years. Thanks
On 10 Feb 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Brighton is that in Wales..... as the Beeb said that was as far as the cold would get this weekend, then spread south to all parts.
On 10 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
I for one don't get on well with the ever changing 5 day forecasts over hear..but..that's why I subscribe to Weather action :)) sunny here today nice blue sky all day long max 7 deg fresh but sunshine making it warm enough to work out in, nice happy weather as per Piers forecast I believe :D
On 10 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
on a lighter note a witty talk why Piers needs to go to France to be recognised for his science- No Need for Geniuses - Professor Steve Jones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrCMUmhQEMs
On 10 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
NIck wrote-Most of us get by quite well with them on a 5 day basis..... have you done a test over several months of their 5 day forecast? I have. Go try it.
On 10 Feb 2016, Jacob wrote:
Is there any chance of snow for as far south as Brighton snow showing for sat and sun but forecasters stating it will be too warm for snow this far south?!
On 10 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Even that is being kind to them, they prefer to mislead and break dow their accuracy into different perspectives, advertising 92% accuracy over a day despite, while that is only true for precipitation, their accuracy for temps are 82%, but I must remind you, that is just a day ahead
On 10 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... writing off that period I described up until the End of March based off the models is pretty much like rolling a dice and guessing to use your analogy.
While based of statistical analysis you can make a confident 'guess' but that is still a guess not based on what is physically happening in our environment but making comparisons with previous years and statistical analysis. My point meaning, back to the point unless we know 'all' variables then we can't make accurate statistical models or make representative comparisons with similar years so to write off the period discussed is more guess work than scientific observation.
The 5 day forecast which I wasn't talking about has an even bigger margin for error than the 1 day ahead as you can imagine.
On 10 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
I accept your point Nick regarding confidence and probability, I am guilty of incorectly jumping between the words. They don't really say the % of confidence, I think because people would question every day watching weather why we pay so much on something with such low confidence.
The Met theselves admit only a 92% accuracy which I would argue to be a marker of confidence. 8% doesn't sound much but as stated with the probability of anyone person winning the ottery doesn't prevent people winning it every week, given enough space and time and the unlikely still happens some place.
People get trapped into thinking about their local area as representing weather world wide. My point is at one day a 8% chance of error means a fairly sizeable portion is getting unforecasted weather, but that is 1 day, you mentioned 5 days and the decline in accuracy is exponential, hence forecasting in 2012 a drought ridden hot summer = cooler than avg and wettest on record. My point stands...
On 10 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... no need to change their forecast like 15 times before the end of their forecast becomes the present.
People can make excuses to explain why they update their week ahead forecast a rediclous number of times through the week but simple as, as soon as you change your original forecast, that means your original forecast was either wrong or you have lost sufficient confidence in it to see fit to change the forecast.
This happens almost daily and it is very rare they stick to any one forecast over a week without making any changes, effectively never reaching the end of any one forecast because it gets changed before the end of it.
So while it may seem like a relatively accurate forecast, it is more of a live feed, constatnly updating as new symptoms and changes are sensed that they simply did NOT model in their early runs. Still, they make multiple runs and average the results because individual runs don't get a grasp of reality, so averaging their result is still very much
On 10 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Nick, I think you have taken the conversation out of context Nick, it started in regards to how I was saying the people who had been writing off winter already which I explained includes up to the end of March (was 7 weeks away at start of conversation) according to Astronomical Winter and the fact March can be cold and snowy as seen in 2013.
The Met Office agree that their confidence or accuracy or which ever words you want to label it with is poor after a week, so my original bashing of the models is that people are using them to forecast the rest of March from now.
However, I would still agree that the models are not very useful over a week and while you suggest people see what they want to, that fact has not been established and I can just as fairly argue it is you seeing that you wish to see. The models change their mind multiple times a day hence the Met change their forecast daily.
They have very little accurcacy or confidnce over a week otherwise there would be no...
On 09 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, starry early morning, followed by a lovely sunny day - compared to Jan/Feb 2015 we’ve had much less sunshine - and tomorrow looks like being more of the same. Max temp 6˚, might have been higher if it hadn’t been for the cold NW’ly breeze, down to 4˚ by 10pm.
On 09 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Doesn't look likely there will be much snow to me and certainly not cold enough for it to stick on lower ground. Thanks for the update on this piers and I hope you are right. Got travel plans this weekend
On 09 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Smattering of snow lightly frozen here n there this morning with a touch of frost in places, pesky cold showers washed it away lol!-) breeze and sleety showers switched to a blustery NW'ly and more rain, around 3 deg. good few areas across the country had snow that met with the same demise this morning too. Ah well will be watching below zero later on Alaska see some proper snow ;)
On 09 Feb 2016, Nick, Berks wrote:
[contd] Per previous post, you can't do any realistic assessment of a forecast accuracy without some a priori agreement on what the test should be. If I had set my heart on going sledging because of a forecast of snow I'd be highly unlikely to rate its accuracy as '2/3' because it rained instead and it was still windy. In general, where there is wiggle room (and sometimes even when not), we see what we want to believe. You, Richard, seem to delight in faulting the models / MO forecasts. Most of us get by quite well with them on a 5 day basis. Even Piers has cited them when they have supported what he has said. On a tangential matter, if you know what the general correlation between a forecast and outcome is, there is no such thing as 'worse than random'. A negative correlation is a better than random forecast which has been poorly presented.
On 09 Feb 2016, Nick, Berks wrote:
@Shaun Please point me elsewhere if you are referring to something else but I have not seen the MO attach a % to anything other than probability of precipitation. It's quite wrong to confuse that with 'confidence.' If I cast a clean die I can say with high confidence that I have a low probability of throwing a six in any one throw and would do well to accept a bet on it with evens odds. There is a huge difference between widely scattered showers and a solid band of rain. If I want to plan an afternoon bike ride it's valuable to me to know whether the probability of rain where I am is 10% or 90%. If the context is infrequent showers, less than 50% is not 'worse than random', it's a much more useful forecast than '90%'. Assessment of accuracy of forecasts is quite another matter and is much more problematic than assessing whether a die is biased or not, mostly because of lack of clarity about what the forecast is for, but once again a '50%' yardstick is generally meaningless.
On 09 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Hills well covered here, down to about 1800ft. Very pleasant in the sunshine, but with a chilly wind. Feels more like mid March rather than February, especially with some crocus now flowering. Noticed daffodils out in Glasgow while down celebrating my nieces 30th birthday. On the same day 9 years ago, on her 21st, there were butterflies flying around my brother's garden. I remember all the AGW guff at the time and then we got the cold winters of 2008-11.
DAVID(Yorkshire) Yes standard models going for a cold snap and the Norwegian MO going for double digit frosts for our area early next week, but not much snow in our area. However any fronts bumping into the cold air may give snow further south. My gut instinct is for a cold spring now--yeuch.
On 09 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Richard, that is pretty much how I feel. Only recently mentioned to someone how I often see the MO with less than 50% confidence in a forecast which as you say is less than a random chance guess.
@David, I have gotten to the place where I follow as much as everyone else, but I never take it as a given. As you say we may just get a little visit from the white stuff, I'm not sure how much to expect, its trying here now but its a little warm at the minute, around 5 degrees not including windchill.
Will the sudden uptic in solar activity influence the SSW situation?
On 09 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
anyone who goes by co2 loaded models is blind more than 36hrs out sometimes 12hrs. The 5 day forecasts are direct model output with no human intervention. Any statistical analysis of those 5 day models will show they have a negative bias ie worse than random. WA as far as i can tell looks for repeatable patterns with solar events as the cause. So according to that assumption solar events today can forecast 100 days from now [maybe more] assuming the correct pattern and timing. The prediction is limited by having a limited data set of records which must involve one assumes a degree of 'filling in the gaps' which may or may not work. Even with those limitations imo it works better than the 'settled science' co2 as cause.
On 09 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The wind eased off late afternoon we had a lot of rain everything was saturated, temp dropped to around 4 deg but felt colder. Around 11 pm I said to my partner it feels like it could snow, went out at midnight but nothing. I couldn't sleep so just ventured out at 2.15 a.m and noticed a little graple type snow stuck to the outside table, then in the next 5 mins I was out it started to snow big proper snow flakes don't know how long it will continue but still :-)
On 08 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, light frost in places, sunny morning in a light NW’ly breeze, clouding over after midday but staying dry, max temp 6˚, late shine from the sun below the clouds as it was setting, 0˚ at 10pm under a clearing sky, feels like a good old frost overnight. == We have a flock of wild geese that have been settling in a field behind us for the last few days, about 1000 of them, making serious noise, great to watch them as they circle before landing.
On 08 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
SHAUN - I have just decided to check the models this evening and I may end up with egg on my face. as it shows snow possible in about 3 days time.
Ron Greer - what is your take on this?
On 08 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Windy wet and miserable yesterday progressing as you would expect as the day went on, wind really kicked up a gear around 3 a.m esp. gusty around 4 a.m eased for around 40 mins then picked back up again, some amazing heavy fairly constant downpours, even though the west and south coast had the brunt of the storm it still packed a punch here inland. Still windy this morning with gusts rattling tiles and driving rain, the only upside to whole house down with flu is a pj day!-) lots of power and travel disruption around the country amazing high waves and wind speeds and more flooding feeling very raw and cold with it too.. I see the West Country in uk has had a pounding too..
On 08 Feb 2016, Fred wrote:
I look at synoptic pattern for verification. Currently it is absolutely spot on. With deep Low Pressure being the player with no real cold blocking in place, to get snow countrywide is some feat as the feed is maritime, and thus I have had 'favoured' areas for snow in my mind. However, it is also as forecast as getting colder and there is lots still to happen. So bang on the synoptic money with disruptive weather.....
On 08 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@David but I feel my main points still stand, there is more than enough cold in the Arctic that could visit us, it's just a matter of the right system playing out.
Back to my point regarding anyone; without knowng all variables blah blah, then you only have part of the picture at all times, like trying to guess those photos in game shows that are half blocked, often you can guess it, the closer to the time the more the image reveals it self but at 7 weeks away not many people predict the weather with sufficient accuracy to even be taken seriously, the hidden variables that we are not aware of waiting to play out.
Like I said previously, I am not saying it will happen, I have no idea, I am saying to write of winter is just as unscientific and illogical as any other fallacy in this time frame and until we are near enough the end of March to see enough of the picture I am keeping patient control of my rationalisations.
On 08 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Hi @David, I had read them as you posted, I have not been questioning your loyalty and the original post was aimed at people in general, as in I notice so many people writing off winter, so it was not addressed to you personally, I wasn't directly challenging you, later I was writing in response to your queries.
But this was simply about my issues with the models, and with the point regarding where would the cold some from, not your knowledge of the weather or your perspective weatherwise. When I said nobody can get a solid grasp on this chaotic system, it was not meant as a criticism of your grasp of weather, if that is how you have taken it, I mean in regards to all, even Piers who I support makes mistakes and it would't be good practice of me to deny his mistakes when, but this is expected as I said due to the weather being a hard problem. Long way around of saying don't take anything I have said personally :)
Excuse the long posts, I struggle to summaris
On 07 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, grey and overcast after a short burst of early sunshine, rain from 10am - 1pm, stiff SW’ly breeze which kept going all day, sunny afternoon though, max temp 5˚, down to 4˚ at 8pm.
On 07 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
@Shaun - You are preaching to the converted, I have been following this site since 2008. I know things can crop up at short notice and I have previously mentioned that February is the most likely month for snowfall in the UK.
Maybe you should take some time to read through my previous posts this winter, starting at the beginning of December and you will see I do have a good handle on the weather, in the UK. I don't mean to be rude in saying that either.
You are right perhaps "where is the cold coming from this time" was not the best way to put my point across, but continental Europe is not particularly cold at the minute, so we need low pressure systems to dive more south east and pull in some much colder air from the North down across the UK. Then we would need high pressure to North West/ North East of the UK to keep the cold air in place and sustain a true cold spell. Not impossible but alot has to fall into place Shaun for this to happen. NB this is in response to previous blog
On 07 Feb 2016, Derek Griffiths wrote:
Any chance of a bitch from the east, this year, Eastside?
On 07 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I don't think any of us take the forecast boundary lines as gospel for the UK, however forecasts are published for Britain and Ireland. So you would expect somewhere to match the forecast? If it snows in Scotland in February, that cannot be claimed as a success, by any long range forecaster.
The USA has a much larger land mass, so I guess that makes it a bit easier to forecast the boundaries of cold and mild air and where snow will fall and areas of deep cold are much more likely to affect that region, they often form over Canada in winter, as opposed to closer to the UK.
To sum up USA forecasts have gone well for winter, not so much for the UK.
Thanks
On 07 Feb 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Cont'd. SSE have a National Grid contract for the 4th unit but are willing to pay £20m to break contract with government as the plant is losing too much money and this will cut their losses. More job losses due to green policies. Daft marxist greenie Monbiot (frequent Guardian writer - say no more) claiming fossil fuel gets more subsidy than renewables as IMF paper says it should be hit with some imaginary cost for pollution, deaths caused by pollution, road accidents, squashed wildlife on the roads etc. Hmm...and how many birds and bats to the windmills kill each year? Difficult to know as most are on private land - or at sea - where any carcases are cleared away. Personally, I think if there were more electric cars on city streets then pedestrian casualties would soar as you can't hear them. Carbon tax and reduced demand due to commitment to take wind energy hitting Fiddlers Ferry by the way.
On 07 Feb 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Good points Piers. I wouldn't claim my weather in Surrey was Uk average anymore then Ron would his. There may be somewhere that matches average profile. But think on that global average is based on grid filling at much greater distances than Ron and me. Add in fiddling and they are worthless. NOAA coming under pressure over 'pause buster' paper and their cooling of the past to accelerate the present as seen by reducing 1998 El Nino high to make current one higher. Yesterday was blustery winds most of the day and then a sluice of rain in the evening to give 0.3" in the gauge this morning. Windy today with sunny spells. Is winter over? Years back I was camping in S Wales at Easter and awoke to 1" of snow. N Wales had 7 or 8 inches so I was lucky. More so that the previous Easter I had been camping in......N Wales! It it only February 7th. Energy security - SSE to close 3 of 4 Fiddlers Ferry coal plants taking away 1.5GW of 24/7 coal fired generation. Cont'd
On 07 Feb 2016, east side wrote:
EXACTLY.
Canterbury is not the centre of the modern world!
I have been in N China in January.
Only short distances from the warm pacific port of Vladivostok & North Korean border it can be bitterly cold.
For February AER says:-
"Further east still, a deep center of negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies extending from northcentral to Eastern Siberia, coupled with the ridging in Western Siberia, is resulting in a northerly flow of cold air across East Asia & well below normal temperatures for all of China."
http://aqicn.org/city/haerbin/
http://aqicn.org/city/ulaanbaatar/baruun-4-zam/
I can imagine how it is in the coal fire heated cities of Harbin or Mongolia just now,- some of the most polluted cities on earth.
Check them out it's -27C >-31C today.
In Norilsk it's also -30C.
Further west temperature gradients are steep,> unusually mild temps in Ural,Baltic,Moscow again oscillating -5>+3C, so there was a thaw of 45cm of snow in just days leading to floods!
On 07 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was grey and raw breezy with cold heavy showers and persistent drizzly rain inbetween, amazing stars last night. Wet and cold this morning around 2/3 deg with a -2 wind chill, wind picking up at 7 a.m with some strong gusts Met.ie has 3 weather warnings up, Orange wind warning for Cork & Kerry, Yellow for Clare Limerick & Waterford and a Yellow weather advisory for Ireland for the next named storm. Heavy rain now too, here we go again lol!-)
On 07 Feb 2016, stephen parker wrote:
A tricky time for forecasters of all persuasions!. What ever the weather does do, we are getting plenty of it!
On 07 Feb 2016, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) wrote:
Thank you for REALLY INTERESTING COMMS from all. Displacements of the polar cold pool (polar vortex) are getting very interesting! Some more snow for many parts of Ireland & Britain is indeed likely soon but the N/S boundaries are tricky. For those who want to think Britain + Ireland + home waters represent the world climate please bear in mind this is ONLY 1/600th of the globe. For those who think their county represents the world think again!
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