On 05 Mar 2017, Lorraine marson wrote:
Lorraine/ the Pope finally getting a clue that world population is the big threat to this planet
On 07 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... the laws of large numbers, while winning the lottery is extremely unlikely, it happens every week to someone or even more than one person.
The weather has been bland for a few winters, not because of AGW in my opinion, so given enough time and space and the weather will do the one thing it does for certain, oscillates between extremes relatively choatically and not to a precise range, this year could be that year and there is good things going go it hence the results of snow and cold around the globe.
it boils back down to the one issue of how will the cold get here, can anyone enlighten me as to how this is a universally agreed beyond all question or with a high degree of credible confidence that it can not or will not happen. I know saying "prove it wont happen" is a kind of daft question, but I feel like most believe it wont happen for daft reasons, which is why I think me asking is not daft, I want to make sure no one has a genuinely valid reason to write off the 7 we
On 07 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... unless you have definite evidence this year is absolutely average, I find it hard to believe as almost every month of the last year has been below or above average, weather is rarely average, the average value ony has to appear in the data set for a tiny amount of time and the extremes just get hidden amongst this so a statistcal comparison with other years, without knowledge behind all causes of all previous years weathers precisely means that we are just guessing based on simplistic comparisons.
All I have stated is, it is not over until it is over, without doubt models are too unreliable to take seriously over this time frame, we have had SSW to an extent, Piers has forecast an event and has a good track record,, there is no evidence that cant or it won't happen, Met have stated El nino statistically causes cold ends of winter, there is masses of cold out there, I can only see an open book. Even if you want to say it is unlikely which I agree, you have to consider...
On 07 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... So @David unless you can tell me that there is 0% chance of cold and snow finding its way here and why with unquestionable evidence to support these claims then I have, based on the models track records enough reason to believe they can get things very wrong, (2012 BBQ drought, hottest ever = colder than avg and wettest on record).
You can only say something with a degree of certainty which to be honest considering the time frame there is not many people who can say anything at this moment with any degree of confidence worth taking seriously considering the End of March os ages away.
The only thing you could suggest with confidence is the most statistically likely outcome based on past is xyz, but that is not a method for forecasting without sufficient knowledge of all those variables as the weather always oscilates between extremes, we must remember the average weather doesn't mean extremes are rare, the system constantly oscillates, within other oscillations...
On 07 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... recently becoming of sufficient interest to warrant proper research so there isn't really enough statistical data to make accurate or reasonably accurate predictions on such events, the IPCC for example explained the 15 year hiatus was irrelevant as it was to short a time frame to mean anything, so I am saying the traditional weather channels have not got SSW pegged sufficiently to say how it is going to play out.
My point was, given Piers track record over similar scenarios (not necessarily weather patterns but scenarios) I would put my faith in Piers (hence being here) rather than in models I know for certain has many issues. To say where is the cold is coming from is the wrong question to be honest, there is significant cold in the North, the question should be how can it get here, well we already know the hows, SSW, Jet Stream, northern blocking etc, but what no one knows from a start of a chain of events that lead to these scenarios is all of their causes...
On 07 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@David Well there is plenty of cold and snow in the Arctic circle, take your pick, the conditions can and do change quickly, I am not saying it is going to happen, I am not saying I believe it will or think it will, I am saying that unless you proclaim to know every variable and how every variable interacts with every other variable, and that is being pretty simplistic about it, then you can't say nothing with certainty so I am saying I feel it is mistaken to jump the gun and write winter off, especially as so long is left and these models are notoriously weak over just a few days.
2013 is not a comparison, it is an example how models and pretty much most of the traditional forecasts based on those models got 2013 wrong and being so late most people just thought winter was over and these behavioural issues not forecasting issues seem to be repeating.
There has been warming, a technical SSW is not ruly defined and there is not yet enough data on a phenomena only recently...
On 07 Feb 2016, Piers_Corbyn twitter wrote:
THANKS TO ALL ON THIS BLOGSPOT. we are just starting a new one - please go there and if you havent got the FEB Europe maps subscribe / download now!
On 07 Feb 2016, Susan, London, sub wrote:
It's worth looking at data regarding the 'Arctic Oscillation' or AO. Go to aer.com and search it. The February 2nd analysis is an interesting read with references to the current SSW and its outcome on the NH. It does appear that Western Europe may not suffer the extreme weather that North America is more likely to have unless the Polar Vortex splits and there is little sign of that happening in the models so far.
On 06 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
James madman is still banging his "snow emergency" drum on his Facebook page. You don't need to be on Facebook to view it just Google Exacta Weather and then click his Facebook link. Rather amusingly there is another Facebook page, slating his predictions and claims.
It looks like he is saying Britain will have snowstorms, at the end of next week, because all the drivers are now in place. Really???
On 06 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, very slight frost in places, grey all day with a mostly SSE’ly wind, feeling pretty raw, temps rising during the day to 6˚ still by 8pm, rain from about 7pm onwards.
On 06 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Shaun - Where is the cold air coming from this time though? Maybe so sleet and wet in the north in the next week but apart from that more wind and rain for England and Wales. MARCH 2013 was a different set up entirely
On 06 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
The sun has peaked again at 113, highest I have seen in months, what influence will this have now on the SSW event?
On 06 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Lots of rain today 5th, breezy s'ly wind max 8 deg high humidity, wind switched to sse and 4 deg now at 3.33 a.m feels cooler out raining still and pressure has dropped.
On 05 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, grey and overcast, stiff SW’ly which lasted most of the day, dry morning with temps rising to 9˚ but not feeling very mild on account of the high humidity and returning polar air. Light rain from midday onwards which lasted into the evening, heavy downpour around 6pm, 3˚ by 10pm.
On 05 Feb 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
1-3 Feb- my view is that is the forecast was 2/3 correct [strength of wind and precipitation] except that the wind was not from NW but SW which meant we got rain instead of snow. As for models when i did the research into all this someone had done a paper on doing forecast runs taking the co2 weighting/assumptions out the models and they worked much better at matching prediction with reality. Meto only have ONE long range forecast. Warmer than average. Keep saying the same thing every day and one day you will be right.
On 05 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Excellent comments on the models Shaun. WUWT has a good critique of the failure of their models to match reality. Most of us perceive forecasting accuracy to have got worse over the years. Is this a result of the models? Have they lost the personal skill to assess information and make forecasts as they did for D-Day? A model would either have said go and be blown to disaster or stay and expose the whole operation to discovery for weeks before the next window. The first period of the forecast hasn't happened in the SE and the second period looks unlikely to pan out. Where has that weather shifted to? North and east? Sudden surge of sunspots today taking the number the highest it has been for a while. Spaceweather reporting that we have a hole in the ozone layer above us. Out in the cold world, China and Mexico are clocking up the snow and cold - something that will need to be fiddled away in this year's hottest ever story.
On 05 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... the Met for example had no snow warnings or advisories, it was then about 5 days before they forecast snow, and it literally played out as Piers said it would, their models would slowly grasp the symptoms from early variables, and at 3 days out they had yellow warning, 2 days an amber warning and on the night before a red warning of snow, first I remember for my area.
Yet Piers forecast a red snow event for the same area a month ahead, so I am not saying disregard them altogether, I am saying this is a similar scenario, a unexciting winter, followed by a late SSW that most thought was never gona happen, their emotions swinging as wildly as the models were, as the models sensed something but they couldn't 't quite 'model' it and late March we had the coldest temps of all winter and I got to enjoy a proper snow, hiked the local hills at about 400m and I was treated to a metre deep snow.
You have to take them with a pinch of salt on times that's my point, its not over til i
On 05 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... useless but the point I have made is that they only have a statistical model on something they do not quite understand so they do have a high degree of error, probability forecasts and it is very rare they are a 100% confident on any forecast and even when I have seen 100% confidence they have still been wrong.
So, I do not mean to say they are entirely useless as they do have a percentage of forecasts right, sorry a long way of saying, people should not write off winter yet based on models that have such a degree for error which as is due to the fact they don't know all the variables in weather, this means there is events occurring that are simply not programmed into the model so it won't see it until later when the symptoms of that event is then picked up as direct weather.
Same as 2013 snow warning, Piers had right a month ahead because he monitors variables they do not, he said they wouldn't see it happening until a few days before and he was exactly right, a week bef
On 05 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@David I am not a fan of the runs at all, they have a very large margin for error, due to the fact they don't understand every variable in the weather system or how each variable interacts with other variables which can be witnessed by how often they get it wrong.
Just to support this you consider why they need to run so many models instead of just running one and sticking with the 3 day ahead forecast or what ever, they run multiple models to get average results and update their predictions like 4 times a day, this improves the accuracy a bit but its like looking out of the window and seeing the weather your self, for it to be technically accurate they would have to make a prediction on a 3 day ahead forecast and make no more edits to that prediction, but they make loads in 3 days and that is because their ability to model the weather is poor so they need a constant live feed and make loads of alterations and still get it wrong and even badly wrong.
I am not saying they are enti
On 04 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, good frost, reasonably sunny morning in a NW’ly wind, clouding over around midday as the wind changed into the SW, max temp 6˚, cloudy afternoon with light rain from 4pm onwards, slightly foggy evening, 5˚ at 10pm.
On 04 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy with a few brief sunny spells light wsw breeze max 11 deg 7 now at 9.20pm met.ie mentioning sleet showers around Sat. I look forward to the Spring for getting outside longer but nothing would surprise me weather wise these days and more relaxed about it all being armed with Piers forecast..
On 04 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Shaun i agree with your comments but even Piers checks the models and uses some of thier charts from runs, for his twitter account. I normally base my thoughts on the bigger picture and previous experiences rather than what models are showing.
If the Eastern side of the USA goes into the freezer again i expect that will fire up the jet stream and give us more storms again - Not snow. This is what i expect to occur and tbe SSW may give us a cold March just like 2013, as Shaun mentioned.
On 04 Feb 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
The Met Office says that 2018-20 will see three years of warming. That contradicts the predictions of Astronomers using the length of the Solar Cycle. Also, one of the BBC’s “Best Scientific Experts” George Monbiot, was on the BBC. He seemed to be saying that Cow Farts are causing a reduction in Ozone, which will kill us all, unless we kill all the Cows. It used to be about Methane causing Global Warming until the BBC’s Censorship policy on Climate Science, Scientists and Scientific debate.
On 04 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
The explanations for the cold weather in March, for example the cold 2013 where I was wading in waist deep snow in South Wales and places in England had 16 ft snow drifts in LATE march was a blocking high, surely no one here or on Netweather can say that a blocking high is out of the question with any degree of certainty worth taking seriously?
Is Piers still supporting an SSW and cold event for the UK in Feb?
On 04 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... predicted a Red warning for snow for South Wales well in advance, and the traditional models were completely clueless and chopping and changing all the time as Piers said they would, I am going to keep my faith in Piers and ride this one out until the end, 'until the fat lady sings' and all that jazz.
The only certain thing about the weather is the level of uncertainty that is 'inevitable', So here's to hoping that the Feb and a large chunk of March will deliver something for most of us, after all there is more than half of a astronomical winter left. In 2013 March was colder than Dec, Jan & Feb so it is not entirely impossible, with records as low as -4 for South Wales and -22 in the highlands of Scotland.
The problem is people focus on average, we don't get avg weather, avg is a middle range, which ignores the highs & the lows, so while an avg March isn't very cold some years it has been colder than winter and plenty cold enough for proper winter conditions...
On 04 Feb 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
I see Netweather forums have given up on this winter despite the fact it doesn't technically end until about the 20th of March, claiming SSW is a no event despite further warmings since this claim.
I notice here people acting like winter is over, the whole point of the computer models is that they are crap, they make mistakes every day despite multiple runs a day, the fact they have failed to correctly model all previous SSW events while Piers have managed to predict them well shows that we should not yet give up on this winter yet just because of some models. Things can and do change very quickly and as far as I have seen the strat has been warming?
I understand people assume that March isn't a good time for winter but neither is November but look at winter 2010, I understand there was SSW in play then as well as a quiet sun, the sun is not quite as quiet at present but it is quiet in respects to where it would normally be at this stage.
like in 2013 when Piers...
On 03 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers exactly how warm (in comparison to others) is this SSW and how long would you expect it to take effect on our weather? Is around 3 weeks the correct timescale? Thanks
On 03 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, light NW’ly breeze and fairly sunny day, max temp 4˚, back down to 0˚ by 9.30pm, nicely dry all day. No snow.
On 03 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday was a bit of a mixed day overcast to begin, big downpour late morning, fresh wind at times a little sunshine then clear starry sky last night. Some nice sunshine today nice n dry, can't wait for Spring next month lots to do, mostly clear this eve. max 9deg. 5 now at 6pm
On 03 Feb 2016, maria 45 day sub somerset wrote:
Its a beautiful crisp and sunny day here, windy but not too bad. It is an uplifting, soil drying day. Temperature at 15.35 is 9.4. Eastside, I could clobber you, I told my family what you wrote, haha I believed you. Now I have egg on my face. Pressure 1027, humidity 81 outside. Indoors all downstairs is 21 due to solar gain. No heating needed again this evening. Solar hot water is being maintained at a steady base temperature of over 40. Very cheap winter for me but am now inclined to give my immediate family no more warnings. The woman who cried wolf
On 03 Feb 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
The problem with the claims of increased extreme weather is that there is either no evidence to back it up - even the IPCC report says it is not so - or that there is evidence that these events have occurred in earlier times - 12thC included - before global warming was invented. The trend is to concentrate on extreme weather since global warming failed and even climate change didn't work out too well since we live in a changing climate. Hence the scary childish 'storm' names from the Met. Talking of which, the great hedge your bets machine and the Met is now forecasting some cooling along with some warming - got that? Frosty start this morning with blue skies that clouded over on the way into London. not too much ice on the windows to scrape off. Biting wind in town though.
On 03 Feb 2016, paul wrote:
A few flakes of sleety snow in Lowestoft this morning around 8.30am. This was not forecast in the Anglian weather forecast.
On 03 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Light snow covering on cars and verges this morning. Now melted. No real cold in sight for you snow lovers down south.
On 03 Feb 2016, stephen parker wrote:
Models are seeing a snow event for wed/thurs/ fri next week, unsure where in the UK will get it, apparently a 40% chance.
On 02 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, WNW’ly gales during the night and still pretty wild in the morning though slowly abating. Dry and sunny start with a max temp of 6˚ but gradually clouding over, sudden gale around midday before a prolonged rainshower which lasted about two hours and felt really cold, then late sunshine on the western horizon. Lots of traffic disruption this morning, many ferries and even some trains cancelled. We got away lightly in this storm, unlike the West Coast.
On 02 Feb 2016, Fred wrote:
The One Show - MoBeeb forecaster said the 'physics' is there that a warmer world dues to greenhouse gas emissions brings more rain and more extremes and flooding will occur.
Then another story followed regarding nearby Pickering, and how 12th century monks prevented flooding by building a 'bund' by their monastery. Did you get that? Prevent Flooding back in 12th century......the physics isn't there MoBeeb.
On 02 Feb 2016, theguvnor wrote:
Here in the SW I saw a field of ewes and lambs. They say that nature can read the weather better than us but not being a farming type isn't this very earlyfor young'uns?
On 02 Feb 2016, Solarman wrote:
Spectacular nacreous clouds over Dundee this morning for 4th time in 5 days. Usually pretty rare sight but associated with active weather fronts which we've had plenty of in the last week
On 01 Feb 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - I think wind and rain is what this winter will be remembered for in England and very mild temps too it will be interesting to see if we get very mild weather this February , just like during the strong el nino of 97/98.
I remember going to the local pub beer garden in February 1998 in balmy weather. I did refer to this before Christmas, but I must admit I expected a colder February than what is seemingly going to occur.
On 01 Feb 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some great pics of rare Nacreous clouds also known as polar stratospheric cloud across Ireland this morning, I've read they are due to the temp of the stratosphere at the 10 hPa level 28 km up and displacement of the polar vortex from its usual location, incredible rainbow coloured clouds never heard of them before, would loved to have seen one. Windy this morning very gusty at times, wind kind of increased and decreased all day and eve. Gusty on n off. Some nice sunshine despite the wind for a time this morning with fast moving cloud. Dark sky and drizzly showers later this aft. max 7/8 deg. Temp dropped noticeably early eve. Still windy at 9.35 pm
On 01 Feb 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, back to wild & mild again after a day of reprieve and stillness yesterday. Strong SW’ly wind, gradually moving a little further into the W as the day wore on, temps moving downwards slowly. Mostly very sunny though and dry, apart from the odd little spitting shower. 2˚ by 8.30pm. Not as wild as expected though from the MO’s amber wind warning which is still in force until tomorrow morning. In the sunlight one could see the shiny blades of growing grass moving in the wind, a remarkable sight in February, the wild geese will appreciate. Daffodils poking their leaves out now, some snowdrops out too, not nearly as far forward as down in England, but still forward for our latitude.
On 01 Feb 2016, stephen parker wrote:
I think eastside's comment was tongue in cheek.
On 01 Feb 2016, istvan ilyes wrote:
Eastside, the 3thd.Feb. not very likely. where is this snow going to come from? I live down south, Crawley, West Sussex. no chance of any winter down here. winter is now over. its February. looking forward to a warm and early spring.
On 01 Feb 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Record rain for our area of Monmouthshire at only 250 feet we had 416mm of rain that's 16.3 inches that has to be near a record for our area. that relates to just over 1/3 of our annual rainfall of about 48" Still plenty of time for the PV to descend over us and bring some snow if we get low pressure at the same time!!
On 01 Feb 2016, JohnE wrote:
very mild here in Lancashire. Hellish windy with some severe gusts but only a little rain and now fast moving cloud.
Warm enough to be outside in the garden collecting debris caused by the current and recent high winds. It actually felt quite pleasant and I cant see cold weather returning at the level that some have predicted. All of my bulbs are sprouting out of the soil, lots of buds on the bushes and even the grass seems to be waking up a little so I could be heading for all year round gardening
On 01 Feb 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) I agree that it looks very unlikely that a UK wide 'snowmaggedon' is likely and it's very unlikely that Eastside's ''prediction of a large dump of snow in southern England on the 3rd February is going to be vindicated--not impossible, just improbable.. How apt that the 8th named storm of the season is being called Henry as it is about to be as helpful to Scotland as Henry VIIIth was. Winds beefing up here now and sleet in the showers. Wonder how the useless windturbines will fare in the blizzards to come on higher ground?
On 31 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, overcast, still and icy everywhere from last night’s rain, gradually thawing as the sun shone for a short while, maxt temp 3˚, going down to 2˚ by 10pm with a rising S’ly wind. According to the MO we’re in for another bout of gales and heavy rain tomorrow afternoon & night, amber warning. Looks like another bull’s eye for Piers.
On 31 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The North of England and Scotland will see further snow this week, as the jet moves a little further south, but I cannot see a UK wide wintry outbreak any time soon. This SSW seems a bit of a non starter at the minute.
On 31 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A few more snow showers yesterday hail and rain followed. Grey dull overcast dark sky today with drizzly rain and wind, milder around 12 deg. wind increasing this eve. Orange and yellow wind & weather warnings on met.ie as the next storm makes its prescence felt.
On 31 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
We had night frost again, and temperatures are definitely dropping. Predictions for next week are lower temps, then rising temps again. / @Paddy: I concur with the 'damp' bit. Inside our (still non-insulated) house, it's more comfortable at 12C with +/- 60% humidity than 14C at +/- 75% humidity. And of course, as dry air is easier to heat than damp air. It's been very humid here the past few days, and I definitely prefer deep freeze cold with sun to rain and grey skies.
On 31 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Heavy 'mini blizzards yesterday, turning to sleet in the afternoon, then back to snow by late evening.. Xmas card scene this morning with about 2cm of fresh snow lying.
On 30 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell and a much more bearable cold than when it’s a few degrees more and damp. Sunny morning with a very strong and biting W’ly wind, temps rising a little to 3˚, clouding over from the west and starting to snow around 1.30pm, looked like it was going to set in seriously but cleared up again. A little bit of rain in the afternoon but then clear starry evening, 0˚ at 10.30pm, still pretty windy, cold as now at last we are getting some real polar air.
On 30 Jan 2016, Bob from Michigan wrote:
Look out UK-Ireland, you're about to get hammered hard with rain for several days, as it looks like from here http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/euro-africasat_600x405.jpg, which picked up a huge amount of moisture from off the coast of NE (US) over the areas indicated in red here http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.1.28.2016.gif. Funny that after a month away I get here right after Gerry mentions me again... The 120 F10.7cm flux figure is for long-term decadal analysis. For short and long-term, use TSI at about 1361.25. Since Dec 1 last year TSI has oscillated back and forth just about weekly above and below that line. In the week following each TSI uptick, we got a warm moist tropical blast that sourced the rain/snow and 'extreme' weather (tornadoes & hail) for the US, depending on location, and most importantly, temps went up in the US every time it happened. Conversely, when TSI dropped below the line, ocean evaporation dropped right off and temps cooled. It works!
On 30 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Pretty much grey all day yesterday with a blustery wind that brought some rain in the evening and overnight. Grey skies have parted this morning to give some sunny spells. Very interesting on spaceweather where there is a piece about cosmic rays steadily increasing from March 2015 to date and measured in both California and Finland show a good match. They show that intensification of cosmic rays is not just being seen at the poles and is related to solar activity which is on the decline. It even mentions that they can seed clouds which raises the unsettled question of clouds in their climate models. The sunspot count has been rumbling along at a lowish rate for weeks now and the solar flux is staying well below the warming point of 120 identified by Bob from Michigan.
On 30 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Christine - as soon as you come to the M word you can stop reading. If their models had been validated or shown any connection to reality then it might be worth reading but as they haven't, and they don't it is just more garbage trying to pretend we have never had it so warm. They are also using treemometry which with Mike's hockey stick fraud has been shown to be an unreliable proxy for temperature as he had to graft on instrument records as the tree rings started to show the opposite of what he wanted. The 'research' comes from the IPCC who are mandated to ignore any other cause for warming than human emitted CO2. There are a couple of salient questions that could be asked. Such as why if it so warm now why is Greenland white cold and icy whereas in the Medieval Warm Period, the Vikings farmed there? During the Roman Warm Period, vines were grown in the north of England to produce wine - why is that not happening now?
On 30 Jan 2016, Bill Downie wrote:
We have an inch or so of snow this morning, here in Livingston, West Lothian (485 ft asl), with a temperature of -0.7C at 9.30am. The snow showers started around midnight and are continuing.
On 30 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Has been snowing for the last hour that I've been awake not sticking but nice to watch, around 1 deg but feels colder with a light breeze, sky clearing a little now so snow stopping for the time being wouldn't be surprised to see a few more snow showers today as it has that feel about it. Feb forecast looks interesting thanks Piers and very handy for those of us that prefer the outside life :)
On 30 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
turned to snow very late last night, with frequent squally showers settling to give about 5cm by 0800 hrs. Had another flooding event yesterday.
On 30 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Severe thunderstorms for Northland NZ https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/severe-thunderstorms-hit-northland-metservice-warns-of-flash-flooding. This is a very strong R3 period Piers.
On 30 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Major storm for the eastern coast of part of Australia http://www.3news.co.nz/world/super-storm-cell-sweeps-across-australia-2016013016
On 30 Jan 2016, stephen parker wrote:
Stratospheric warming event taking place right now.Buckle up folks, could be very interesting in about a fortnight!
On 29 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Fair gusty out during the night, one of our kids heard thunder around 4-5 a.m must have had a power surge as one trip switch knocked out, wind tailed off just before school run but has remained breezy with frequent showers today, feeling much cooler too. Windy again this eve 5 deg at 10 pm Our cat has come in looking really full this eve wouldn't be surprised to see another cold spell soon as he always stocks up prior to a change in weather.
On 29 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, wild & mild: the SW’ly wind started up ferociously around 5.30am and continued till around 10am, after which it abated somewhat but continued with intermittent squalls that brought gale force 9 winds for short bursts. As it gradually turned into the west it got colder, down to 2˚ by 6pm, 3˚ by 9pm & raining, yellow wind & snow warning, it’s the sting in the tail of the R4 which ended yesterday. There certainly was travel chaos this morning as all the major bridges were closed, all ferries were cancelled and a landslip between Fort William and Inverness meant a 150 mile detour. Quite a bit of structural damage in the west, so spot on Piers! == CRAIG: yes we do have ‘em, storms & gales that is; we spent the day staking 5 year old pine trees growing on wet and shallow soil in one of our poorer bits, the ground is just so saturated and the trees still too young to have an extensive root system to withstand the frequent assaults.
On 29 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Gary
30d will be worth it, Piers' anouncement that slat 12c stands is very noteworthy. Period has past or upon us so should be ok post, the stratospheric warming is happening as forecast right now. Get ready for February and buy the forecast....you'll need it.
On 29 Jan 2016, Nick, Berks wrote:
Christine, the analysis relies on lots of reconstruction. That may have its errors but I don't see anything wrong with their summary. It says that the last 30 years have been warmer than any other 30 year period in the last 2000 years but that the 100 year period of the 20th century was non-significantly cooler than the 1st century AD. Given a random level of variability, you would naturally expect greater variance in 30 year spans than in 100 year spans. The last 30 years have been exceptionally warm but there were also some significantly cooler spells within the 20th century which take down the average. In addition, the last 30 years only half overlaps the 20th century and the second half was warmer than the 1st.
On 29 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill (occasional subscriber) wrote:
This news article is obviously manipulative nonsense. It claims that recent summers were the hottest in two thousand years, whilst also going on to say that they weren't. Give me strength!
"The team found that the first century was the warmest in their analysis, slightly hotter than the 20th Century but according to team, the difference between the two was not statistically significant."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35431375
On 29 Jan 2016, Gary wrote:
Is the Feb 30d out yet? Cant see it in my list of forecasts.....or am I being a little eager here?
On 29 Jan 2016, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
RED warning just issued for Shetlands and Orkney. Quite a wide AMBER warning for Scotland. "Posted at 07:54 High winds are battering parts of the country as Storm Gertrude crosses Scotland. Winds of 80mph have been record in Dundee, while the Cairngorm summit recorded a 132mph gust. Winds reaching 90mph have also been recorded at South Uist - and in Aberdeenshire, Inverbervie has recorded a gust of 87mph. " === http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-35436420 === We really don't get these kind of storms in the south but they are a regular feature up North.
On 28 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, good frost with hard ground but gradually thawing through the morning, blustery SW’ly wind with some strong gusts, dry and mostly grey with only the odd glimpse of the sun, max temp 6˚, down to 4˚ by 10pm. We have a yellow rain warning and orange wind warning for tomorrow morning, R4 extended by on day?
On 28 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
* 9 a.m not p.m :)
On 28 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Chilly start but not frosty, cloud had moved in early and rain on n off all day a bit blustery more so this eve. Orange wind warning up for 17 counties with strongest winds in mostly Northern and Western coastal areas, Yellow wind warning for remaining 9 counties inc. here in Laois, issued from midnight - 9pm tomorrow, it's Gertrude to blame this time lol ;)
On 28 Jan 2016, theguvnor wrote:
Those who have had enough of the AGW alarmism may be interested in this website which is 'banking' on a cooling future:
http://coolfuturesfundsmanagement.com/
On 28 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Day started cloudy but now (1 PM) clear blue skies. Yesterday a 'strong wind' was predicted which in actual fact bordered on 9BF all afternoon and evening here. No need for the wood stove, inside temperature stays well above 12C even in the morning without the heater on. As for winter being over: here in Fryslân (Friesland) we have this skating tour called the Eleven City Tour, skated on natural ice. Of the 15 tours ridden since 1909, 8 took place in February, and two more in the last few days of January. It ain't over yet ;-)
On 27 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Wind eased and main showers passed through quite quickly, a few brief sunny spells more dark clouds moved in a few more showers then clearing again to give a clear starry chilly evening of 2 deg.
On 27 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, raining all morning with a cold breeze that turned from W into NW as the day wore on, temps going down to 2˚ during the day, even when it brightened up in the afternoon with quite a bit of sunshine. We even had a bit of sleet before the rain stopped around midday. Fairly clear & starry evening, 0˚ at 8.30pm.
On 27 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) Thanks for getting back to me on that one. Your views are consistent with my own anecdotal experiences and conversations with local gamekeepers and shepherds, who say that the hardest time for hill access because of snow is February to April. I have especial memories of Feb to April 1986, with my seedling boxes still frozen in April and fishing round the ice edges in Loch Laggan in that month. If my memory serves me rightly the record for the UK was recorded in February 1895 and equalled in January 1982, with Xmas 1995 not far behind.
On 27 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
The wind picked up yesterday and brought rain for most of the day. Lots of surface water around last night driving around the M25 and a strong cross wind. Hammering wind and rain during the small hours, then low cloud, strong wind and rain squalls this morning. Still wet and windy in London. Andy B - Piers was correct with his 12c forecast having withdrawn his 12cs one. The legacy media is very poor at covering subjects these days with little effort put into research. Their coverage of our most important event for decades - the EU Referendum - is stunning in its ignorance and ineptitude, matched only by the politicians some of whom seem to be unaware that ever-closer union is stated at the beginning of the Treaty of Rome eh Mr Pickles? UKIP is a conservative party while the Tories are a zombie party taken over by centre-lefties in parliament but whose supporters have still not realised they are Blue Labour with Call Me Dave the heir to Blair.
On 27 Jan 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Record rainfall for this area in last 24hrs 120mm of rain and we are only 250 feet above seal level but about 2 mile from 1500' mountain. Jonas has definitely been a large storm for a R4, perhaps it is a good job Piers was wrong with his Euro forecast of blizzards for this period!
On 27 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
re guardian article....Politics is about murdering the truth to keep people in darkness. Some governments use polonium. Some governments use co2 or dossiers. The art of politics is the art of murder [in one form or another]. We see the press reporting stories how some are trying to murder the truth [or beauty] every day.
On 27 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Started to get a little windy after post last night but the rain and wind has got worse from early this morning, I'd say worse than yesterday, reports of thunder around the country and tremendous downpours dull dark morning..
On 27 Jan 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
I read the Observer article. There are two scientific developments in Piers favour. (1) Proof that Carbon Dioxide warming is poppycock: The paper (Unified Theory of Climate, Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller, 2011) produces a formula that solves the problem of explaining the temperatures in all parts of the atmospheres of all the planets in the Solar System, including the Earth and the carbon dioxide atmospheres of Venus and Mars. While with the Arrhenius method of calculating the Greenhouse effect, you cannot fit together the proxy results for Venus and Mars, proving the paper (Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics, Gerhard Gerlich, 2009) correct.
On 27 Jan 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
Also (2) Proof that Solar Magnetic effects rule Climate Change: Scientists such as Ed Fix, Carlo Tosti, Nicola Scafetta, Paul Vaughan, Tim Channon, Rick Salvador and Ian Wilson use the Planetary masses and movements to predict the length of the Solar Cycle. The speed of the centre of the Sun relative to the centre of mass or barycentre of the Solar System determines the length of the solar cycle, this in turn is caused by the orbits and masses of the Planets. Short Solar Cycles have higher Solar Magnetic activity due to the increase in the speed of plasma within the Sun, and therefore a larger number of Sun spots. Long Solar Cycles have lower Solar Magnetic activity and therefore a smaller number of Sun spots. So that’s how as with Piers, they also predict a Mini-Ice-Age, by using Kepler’s Laws of planetary motion. But as with the Politics, and after reading its manifesto, I think only UKIP live in the real World.
On 27 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Stormy weather for the North Island of NZ today http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/76286998/Rain-arrives-ahead-of-forecast-severe-thunderstorms.
Meanwhile here we've had a week of hot, humid weather which has made sleeping at night difficult and also hard to get out and work in the garden.
On 26 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - I would expect to see the jet moving further south than the models are showing currently, after this weekend. Leading to northerly winds and snow up north at least. Not sure about snow in the south initially from such a scenario though until high pressure builds to the west/north to keep the cold in place
On the subject of February snow - I always think it is much more likely than any other winter month in the UK. Less active jet stream, lower heights to the south of UK, more chance of heights to the North. February 1996 produced heavy falls and bitter temps in many areas. I also remember heavy rain in February 1991 turning to snow and dumping 20 cm or more in a few hours.
Rather interestingly I have a pyracantha bush in my garden. The birds have not bothered with the berries on it this winter, until yesterday. It has been stripped now of half of the berries. Is this a sign?
On 26 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, wet with occasionally heavy rain all morning, brightening up in the afternoon with some nice sunshine through the clouds, max temp 10˚, pretty clear & starry evening with the moon, still 8˚C at 9.30pm. MO yellow rain warning for tomorrow morning.
On 26 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Timing wasn't great taking a delivery of logs at 8 am this morning, my bad!-) the intense rain and fairly windy weather was kind of exilerating though I must invest in proper waterproof gear me thinks. Eased off late morning and now raining again this eve. but not windy atm 8 deg at 10 pm
On 26 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// the post re the Channel Islands three years ago - actually Piers got that spot on the money in his predictions- the snow came in suddenly the islands were sandwich between snow in the Uk and snow on the French continent which plunged the islands into deep snow as it swept in cold conditions. I have to say that it came in so quickly some people left their work places thinking they would get home but had to abandon their vehicles. This year daffodils are flowering about a month earlier, sea temperatures are about 1 degree higher than the average, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility. To get snow in February - interesting times.
On 26 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID/EASTSIDE: even the GFS scenario with a polar maritime airstream over most of the UK and Ireland with a small Low over NW France on 3rd February, allows for a heavy snowfall over the south of England. So what are you guys plumping for? I don't trust GFS this far ahead.
On 26 Jan 2016, Derek Griffiths wrote:
Given the tedious onset of yet more wind and rain, I think it's a case of Sudden Stratospheric Yawning!
On 26 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
What indeed?
For the 1st time this winter we have something approaching a normal situation developing.
Pressure rose,(1025mb).Temps are falling in Ural/ W Siberia, while temps have risen in Moscow, SBB & /Baltic states by 15C!
A high pressure area reforming nr Ural dictates a late spring+prolonged winter in that region.
This leads me to imagine winter is receding into Siberia, while the cold air becomes more diffused all the continent.
As the length of the day starts to increase substantially so does the weakness of the polar vortex, which starts to wobble unstably as the wind velocities drop.
Funny things happen between the one centred over Siberia & the one over the Hudson.This affects the strength of the JS & its direction.
This sudden flip to strong polar air over the UK can happen v suddenly.
I remember one day in Alsace, where it was 10C one Jan afternoon at 800m.Suddenly temps dropped by 30C in 2hrs to -20C!
It happens!
"what do you base this prediction on?
On 26 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
25.1.16 Great work Piers Slat 12c back on track here and also without fail the R4 forecast for 24-26th Jan is developing, windy and wet overnight last night. Hefty downpour late this morning, mild 12 deg. at first dropping cooler to around 7deg. SW'ly wind this eve. 3 Yellow alerts on met.ie for overnight tonight into tomorrow, wind alert for all of Ireland rain alert for some counties and yellow weather advisory for high tides wind ect for coastal regions. Wind getting up now outside around midnight. Irish mail has it headlined storm of the century on the way lol!
On 25 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Eastside - what do you base this prediction on? Jet stream going North or South? I personally think it will turn much colder early feb rather than middle or late, like some are expecting after an SSW (that probably wont happen) tipped by GFS. I was thinking more along the lines of Northerly arctic air though, so your predection of heavy snow for the South is interesting. Do you envisage an Easterly from the continent?
Piers thanks for the update, I have not purchased Feb forecast as yet, forgetting the SLAT update, Jan has gone well so far for the UK. USA even better.
On 25 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Who knows?
Last time the weather did something the MO didn't expect they had so much snow in the channel islands they didn't know what to do!
People have really short memories.
The channel islands blizzard was only 3 years ago 11 March 2013.
Only 10 years ago, the warm-mongers were claiming kids by 2010 in the UKwouldn't know what snow looked like!
In fact I can't think of a single thing the climate perverts have predicted that has actually come true.
Even on Kilimanjaro THEY GOT IT WRONG "http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/21/kilimanjaro-regaining-its-snow-cap/"
" It takes just 5mm to cause chaos here in south west hertfordshire! Will the snow be coming am or pm?"
On 25 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, blustery S’ly wind all day, mostly cloudy but with the odd bit of sun breaking through in the afternoon and a bit of moon this evening, a few rain showers in the afternoon. Max temp 10˚, down to 4˚ by 9.30pm as the wind turns into the W. We have a yellow rain warning for tomorrow, we’ll see whether the current R4 will turn from a pussycat into a tiger. == PIERS: Good article about you in yesterday’s observer, given to me by a friend. I’m not a scientific mind, so don’t understand a lot of what is being discussed here on the blog, but I’ll support you for as long as I can for standing up against the general brainwash.
On 25 Jan 2016, stephen parker wrote:
EASTSIDE: It takes just 5mm to cause chaos here in south west hertfordshire! Will the snow be coming am or pm?
On 25 Jan 2016, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Very mild with sunny spells here gusty S.wind but what weather around the world bucket loads of snow in meters on the Eastern seaboard of U.S and Hong Kong ice WHAT!!! it is usualy a sub tropical climate.China Japan,South Korea and Taiwan suffering cold as well.I can just see the headlines on the 31st from the BBC.JANUARY 2016 WAS BY FAR THE HOTTEST JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
On 25 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
to be fair to the Mobeeb, they have several times pointed out that the 'after-storm will NOT bring snow here but rain and wind. The Tory red-top newspapers carrying this type of news are no better than pre-used toilet paper in predicting the weather.
On 25 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
It seems that Taiwan and Japan didn't want to miss out on the snowfest as they get lots of snow and cold. Apparently it is the most snow in 24 hours that New York has ever had. And the remnants head our way just in time for some R solar activity. Cloudless start to today with a nice red sunrise which with the planes in a western pattern heralds a change of weather. Cloud has built up through the day but still warm.
On 25 Jan 2016, JohnE wrote:
Interesting stuff about what effect the "after storm" from the US will bring to the UK, or parts of it.
The implication from almost all of the headlines is that we are going to get lots of snow but that aint going to happen because here in the North West its almost time put on a pair of shorts and mow the lawn. Amazingly mild and whilst I follow what it written on this blog for those who are not scientifically minded, which incidentally is the vast majority of the population, it is very easy to see why folk are cynical about weather forecasts and predictions. Most folk do not think about cyclical events and are only concerned year to year. What most folk see is now and maybe think back a year or at the most two.
On 25 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
JACK: Piers predicts the weather, he does not make it happen.
On 25 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
EAST SIDE: if that turns out to be the case and it lasts for more than 36 hours the MObeeb will call it 'the Big Freeze' and it will be put down to global warming. Up here in Ghiilie-Jockoland, we'll just pour another dram and smile.
On 25 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Luck is smiling for you!
A few inches?
There's a massive dump coming your way on 3rd Feb.
I predict utter chaos for 24hrs all over the south of England and the French coast.
"would love to know if Southampton this year will see a few inches of the stuff"
On 24 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, mild but grey all day, dry all day in a stiff S’ly breeze, max temp 11˚, 10˚ by 10pm, what a turnaround!
On 24 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Saturday was overcast dry in the morning breezy and showers from lunch onwards, around 12 deg similar today, wind was more of a feature all day, overcast dry till this afternoon then showers moved on in.
On 24 Jan 2016, jack wrote:
piers I want to subscribe as I'm a massive snowfall fan I live the snow I work in a factory would love to know if Southampton this year will see a few inches of the stuff or is it over till next year temperatures right now is not making me want to subscribe lol
On 24 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Joke of the week - a windmill is suffering from icing on the blades due to the extreme cold so a truck with an oil-fired boiler to heat water is driven to the site, a helicopter is used to lift a tank of the heated water so that it can be hosed onto the blades to remove the ice. Oh, hang on, apparently this is what they do in Sweden and not a wind-up. Shaun - think back to the Climategate emails and Jones (hasn't he been quiet of late) said that 15 years of no increase in temps would be a problem - what is it now, 18years 8months and counting. And strange (well not to us I suppose) in the great 'Warmest year evah' blurb there is barely a mention of the natural El Nino even when with a straight face they refer back to 1998, when there was another one. And assuming that nobody since seems to have any skill at predicting El Nino, it can't be accurately modelled in the great computer climate games, I am 97% certain of that!
On 24 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
i see bbc weather now talks and shows jet stream as determing what weather we get. Which is a problem as their co2 theory can't explain it
On 24 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Superb analysis of our energy lunacy on WUWT looking at what we are committed to with the Climate Change Act. The conversion to an all electric society would entail a huge increase in supply capacity that can't be delivered. It is as if nobody has ever sat down and done the sums on what they have planned. Booker asked the DECC if they done any serious number crunching on this but they just looked blank. We would need millions of windmills which could not be manufactured or installed at a rate to meet demand even if there was any money to pay for them all. Booker makes a good point today - Tuesday 19th, -7C in Somerset, windpower from 5500 windmills 33MW making it 0.1% of supply, 35000MW (or 35GW) coming from fossil fuels making 75% and of that 40% was from coal. Transportation periodical had admission that electric cars not selling well and major manufacturer said they were making a loss on them. Toyota dumped the idea in 2012 - good move it would seem.
On 24 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
A dull day today with grey clouds and always a hint of precipitation but before dusk nothing so far. Now have thermometers in both ponds and as of 4.30pm the larger was 12C and the smaller 9C. I would have expected the opposite given the volumes and the time lag in changing. 10C is the change point for different food. Smaller pond fish keener on food but then are smaller. Babies in big pond always coming to feed. Saturday clouded over, was warm and then had a good spell of rain through late afternoon into the evening. 1/4" in the rain gauge. Breezy too. Thanks for the update Piers. Good to know what to follow. Excellent hit for the US with R3 powered storm. 19 killed so far and travel chaos, if only they had found somebody who could have warned them 3 weeks ago, eh? So when there is a heatwave, roads are still open, planes still fly, trains still run (SouthEastern excepted if the sun is too bright), the economy runs and nobody dies. Yet we are told to fear a slight warming.
On 24 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Well, I just have the 30d EU monthly (x6) subscription, so will just have to wait and see what February brings. Somehow I don't think it's going to be a smooth slide towards Spring though ;-)
On 24 Jan 2016, Michael (Wakefield) wrote:
Thanks for the update PC! Your stipulation is duly noted. The changes in the strat and potential propogation that may affect our climate in the UK is proving a tricky one to forecast, however, confidence is high SLAT12c has got a good grasp on the exciting events of Feb! Reports on success for my region will follow.
On 24 Jan 2016, Piers_corbyn wrote:
GUYS! HERE IS THE NEWS and I am telling you now here on WeatherAction BLOGSPOT before ALL OTHER PLACES EVEN HOME PAGE on CONDITION you now today this minute promote our forecasts to get someone extra to SUBSCRIBE TODAY or extend existing Sub AND if you are not a subscriber JUST DO IT! Thanks for waiting! NEWS: SLAT 12 HOLDS FOR FEB AND THERE WILL BE NO SLAT12cs AMMENDMENT. The Feb Br+Ir forecast as in all BI Eu boxes and TheLot issued Oct 31 for 90 to 120d ahead IS UNCHANGED. There will be some solar factors etc info added +graphs in 30d detail update. As many have noted SLAT12 has in fact being holding since About Jan 20 and the original 12c holding well both sides of Atlantic. We conclude the 12cs, special stratospheric modifications probably only apply near certain R5 periods and we over-applied it in later Jan. ON STRATWARMS note some of those warned warmings showed partial happening but were weak. This doesnt affect the original 12c fcst which anyway predicted wild JS events. PC.
On 24 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// CNN America say they have record statistic at coast New York snowfall 28 inches since comparable to 1869 -
On 24 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
@Gerry - Would've paid money to see his face ;-) / OT: Both sunny days and extreme cold (Friday was horrible!) right on the dot as per Pier's predictions. Code Yellow WRT icy road conditions was in effect for the NE up to yesterday morning; one person was even killed when his car skidded out of control :/ The NE has been the coldest so far with Hellmann Points of 35,9; our region just to the West at 4th place with 14,4 points. Predictions now for rising temps with loads of rain; thaw has removed all the ice (last chunk fell off the roof yesterday morning). Driving back Friday from Leeuwarden, it was beautiful to see people skating over the frozen low-lying wetlands. Turned off the heater last night and woke up to an inside temperature of 10C, something which took all day to reach with both heater and wood stove going at full blast just a few days ago. Last night inside temperature finally reached 15C for the first time in weeks, feeling positively tropical ;-)
On 24 Jan 2016, Jez wrote:
Fred you can still get ice / frost forming at ground level with an air temperature of 3 or 4 degrees
On 24 Jan 2016, stephen parker wrote:
Well my friends, all these discussions about world temperature should, according to Mr Corbyn and other scientists and forecasters who promote the solar angle, be rendered obsolete as we should be in a period of significant cooling for the next thirty years. So we should start to see a drop in the coming years.Mr Corbyn has been saying this for as long as i have been following him, little ice age conditions from 2015. As always, time will tell!
On 23 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, very slight frost, brightish start with S’ly wind, clouding over by midday, grey & dark thereafter, temps slowly climbing to 6˚ by 9.30pm. So far, the R3 has been a pussycat, R4 from tomorrow, will that bring the change?
On 23 Jan 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... Isn't average worked out as the sum of all values in a dataset divided by the number of values in he dataset? So how can they say they even know what the Earths average temps are if they haven't got a complete dataset, or at least a dataset containing multiple complete cycles and not just half of one cycle.
Also I am always dubious when they talk about the Mean avg and not the Median as one way to manipulate statistics to suit you is to choose a misleading average. I didn't think weather produced normal distribution or a bell curve on their oscillations. Weather produces a skewed distribution which means the Mean and the Median are different values while most people just see the word average, if it was a normal distribution it would be fine as Median and Mean are the same but as it is a skewed distribution it is normally the Median that is used, and Mean the deceitful value, the whole thing stinks to high heaven - cherry picking fraudsters... excuse the rant
On 23 Jan 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... weather systems are energy systems, they can't get perpetual energy to fuel and ever increase in heat, heat is energy, they can't be fuelled infinitely. I understand they do not need to rise for ever before it is detrimental for ourselves but at this moment there is insufficient data to know whether the rise will continue.
Especially as I stated their largest data sets only show one cycle of the wave from one cold period to one warm, without data covering multiple cycles between cold and warm they can't make any accurate predictions, it's like using a tiny sample to do statistical analysis on, it just doesn't work, the greater the size of the sample the smaller the margin for error in the analysis, they have only half a cycle from the trough( cold in 1880's) to the crest (warm in 1998), its like having 1 person participate in a statistical study, the margin of error would be like 100%.
With that data they have no idea what average, a 30 year average is not average...
On 23 Jan 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Richard indeed they are cherry picking dates to exaggerate the situation. It is well known that you can decrease or increase the perceived severity of variance on charts by changing the scale of the vertical axis, but also by cherry picking years.
The AGW movements response to the contradiction that was the 'hiatus' in global temperature rises by saying 15 to 18 years is nothing, a blink of an eye in climate terms, yet they then hypocrtically use a 30 year mean, which is not a much greater time frame than the inconvenient hiatus they consider meaningless.
Then when they pick longer datasets its still conveniently starting in a cold spell and ending in a hot spell making it appear as one continuous rise; this is a fraud because these systems are oscillations and what do oscillations do... swing from negative to the middle range and into positive before repeating the cycle of the wave over and over... natural variation it is inevitable the cycle is going to repeat, it has to...
On 23 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Interesting comment David about NOAA moving the goalposts on temps. It was noted on WUWT that the great heat of 1998 had actually been reduced but that was to help with increasing the last decade where the growing rift between the surface and satellite records starts. The instances of snow, ice and cold reported on Iceagenow suggests that it might be difficult to make 2016 the warmest but I am sure they will manage it. But regime change in the US might bring it tumbling down if Senator Cruz gets the job. A shift in wind direction brought a warmer spell over the last 2 days. Skies cleared yesterday evening and the fog appeared. Overcast this morning but a bit of sun has made it through. The R3 would seem to be at work in the US as the east gets a good working over and they are already talking of the hit to the economy. Anyone recall such a thing during a spell of hot weather?
On 23 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
We just reached the maximum thickness & concentration of sea ice off southern Finland for the winter.
Currently we also have the highest snowfall depth of the country at 40-42cm with another 2cm to fall as pressure falls for the next 2 days, bringing us to roughly 45cm.
The next few days is the 1st time positive temps will arrive bringing a small thaw.
This signals the beginning of a change to conditions in Scandinavia-Baltic, with a general warming from the severe winter of most of Jan
.
It also signals the movement of this colder air further south>further into western Europe but warmer conditions for Ural.
I can confirm the unusually warm conditions in Ural, showing only -10C nightime & already nr 0C daytime.
Arctic oscillation conditions indicate now the loss of coupling between the siberian air mass & that of N America. Polar air was unusually cold this winter & the polar vortex very tight, giving the southerly jetstream/unusually warm, wet conditions to the UK & France.
On 23 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Well the Global warmist mobeeb had me down for 4c, I have woken up to icy pavements and cars. The usual +2-4c added then.
On 23 Jan 2016, stephen parker wrote:
Simon keeling says there could be a repeat of the 2009/10 set up in February, and forecasting a hit of cold weather in the middle of the month. February is going to be interesting folks!
On 22 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 wet and pretty windy from the S, raining through to around midday when it started drying up, 6˚ max temp, sun coming out after 2.30pm, glorious end to the day, the soon to be full moon and stars out in the evening, wind calmed down again, feeling much milder than of late at 4˚ by 8pm. Question to the initiated: oh R3, where is thy sting?
On 22 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Heavy downpours during the early hours, cleared this morning and some fantastic blue sky and sunshine, got stuck in outside sorting the compost heaps and taking the oldest batch into the Polytunnel to top up the beds, last barrow load at lunchtime in time for a big downpour, cleared again and more sunny spells for the afternoon. Veg plots are saturated so no digging for a bit yet, still eating Savoy cabbages and Brussels a few parsnips left, will need a crane to lift the last few swedes that went to waste as are not far off the size of a football!-) Max 10 deg. 8 now and partly cloudy..
On 22 Jan 2016, David Russell wrote:
Great site ! Find it bizarre that noaa claim last year was hottest ever at 58.47 f when they also claimed back in 97 that was hottest ever at 62.45 f ! They even admit to lowering the baseline , so 97 wasn't the temperature they claim then or is this just a tactic to remove a inconvenient pause ?
On 22 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
if you decontextualise temps from ice age cycles then there is NOTHING to fear. Temps can go up another 4c and no ice at pole. Its NORMAL. Its why as the ice melts old forests and settlements are bein g found. The co2ers want to create fear as a tinopener to your bank account. This is why they decontextualise from ice age cycles and focus mostly on 30 years or if you want to be really 'deep' 100 years. If i showed a 1 min chart decontextualised from a day's cycle for the last 30 minutes and drew a prediction line you might believe we all going to fry by midnight
On 22 Jan 2016, Mike (45 day subs) wrote:
Message to Piers. Please will you advise which Britain and Ireland forecast to use for the remainder of January - either the SLAT 12c or the SLAT 12cs. With thanks in advance for further clarity on this important weather matter for all paying subscribers.
On 22 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID& FRED: taking your comments together, perhaps the fact that standard models are pretty crap after 3-5 days let alone 30-45 days and just can't compete with Piers, then concentrating on 30-45 days in a disturbed jet stream/ lower solar output period would not be unwise.
Almost a week of snow lying now, but mild wet and dreich has returned tom shift it this morning. Ground still frozen after a series of moderate frosts.
On 21 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
So 12 z models show something different again....like I said up to 3 days then who knows. I think folk will see some surprises coming...unless you've subscribed. This is getting very very interesting....and really DO NOT look and accept beyond 3 days on the models
On 21 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, slow thaw setting in, strong & cold S’ly wind, max temp 4˚ with a few sunny intervals in the grey streaming clouds, still 3˚ at 9pm, intermittent & weak drizzle, not the downpour MO’s mindless robot was predicting, Scandi High much stronger today. Ground still hard tonight, only a surface centimeter has thawed, we’ve had 8 consecutive days of frost, we’ll need some more. In today’s damp wind it actually felt colder than it was, even though the temps were above 0˚. Now watching what happens in the next 7 days.
On 21 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
If we are now in a period of wilder jet stream movements (due to lower output from the sun) and as a result of that huge contrasts in weather, would it not make sense to just try and produce 30/45 day ahead forecasts instead of 100 days + ahead?
Piers has admitted these are difficult times even for weatheraction. This should in theory improve accuracy and cut out the need for as many updates. This still gives enough notice to plan and prepare.
This would also be more cost effective for weatheraction - not as many forecasts to produce and release etc. More time to focus on said forecasts and it might make it easier for new customers, to navigate the forecast area. This is just an idea and not a critism.
What do other subscribers think?
On 21 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Oops sorry sent post a second ago b4 I had written it :-) back to rain and wind overnight and today max 10 deg. Wind switched to S'ly and also high humidity, feels stormy wouldn't be surprised to get some thunder have a banging headache.
On 21 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Listen chaps (& ladies).
The jetstream is going off south again, so winter outlook for the UK & France, will be a few periods of cooler weather then more masses of pouring rain.
Get used to it, it's not going away tomorrow.
For Eastern Europe that means a continuation of the severe winter weather, with masses of heavy snow for Belarus, Baltic states, Finland, Scandinavia & current temperatures hitting below -20C once again today.
Belarus has been suffering drought conditions for a number of years, so they are jumping for joy currently with the massive snowfall to replenish the water table.
If the current jetstream condition remain into spring/summer,as last year then a repeat of France's last year's boiling summer (+ a lacklustre British & Russian one) could well be in the offing.
As for"hottest, this or that on record", human memory is notoriously unreliable over even a mere few weeks.It's possible to manipulate & lie to people.eg."plebgate".
So what about a lifetime?
On 21 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Agreed, oddly and interestingly a dramatic switch has occurred / is occurring. However, one is assuming that the models have got the next 7-10 days nailed which I doubt they have but I do think they get the general 3 day set up generally right.....and its turning very mild.
On 21 Jan 2016, Michael (Wakefield) wrote:
@David: Actually and rather oddly, the original 45d Jan is closer to what is happening or about to happen. I think confidence is much lower on the recent update for rest of Jan. Still, looking forward to Feb, interesting times.
On 21 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Never mind an update on February, what about some comments on January from Piers? Looks to be going way off track to me considering it was released 10/12 of January,
On 21 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Piers
Can you let us know when Feb 45 will be updated by 12cs?
On 21 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
So its official - last year was the hottest year on record according to James Renwick of NIWA http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/2016-on-track-to-be-hotter-than-2015-2016012118. Well of course if Renwick says that it must be true, after all he is a climate scientist -lol! I wonder how many people in NZ actually believe this rubbish - apart from the extreme greens.
On 20 Jan 2016, geoff wrote:
Gosh, I am (almost) rigid with fear about the 2015 records of all time for world Temps- but native scepticism leaves me wondering-how many actual monitoring stations, where located, how many raw readings adjusted (why?) to what effect on data input to the Giant Academic Brain and on outputs,what proportion of the world surface is really monitored and how much interpolated, what period is represented (similar simultaneous warmth across the whole globe looks a bit simplistic, or maybe there are no ice caps anymore-missed that myself but maybe that is just my bourgeois False Consciousness blotting out the objective Troof? 'We re Aw' doomed, doomed I tell ye' as Private Fraser would have put it)? And What is Labour doin abaht it?
On 20 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but brightening up soon enough, very light breeze from a NW’ly direction, warming up to 2˚ air temperature with the ground staying frozen solid all day, -3˚ by 9pm. So far the Scandinavian HP is holding off anything coming from the SW, long may it continue, though MO says it’ll be raining by tomorrow night.
On 20 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
How the journalists like to talk up a situation forgetting that they normally talk down cold weather, channel 4 news (although sad as it is note ) the refugees are battling the cold and the snow hasn't even arrived yet - ! ( or something on those lines or thereabouts.
On 20 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Nice frost this morning, icy road in places, blue sky and good ole sunshine for a good part of the morning with clouds moving in around lunch time and mostly overcast later this afternoon. 1 deg. in the Polytunnel at 11.am freezing feet through hiking socks and snow boots but warmed up working clearing it out for spring, max temp around 6 deg later but sse breeze made it feel colder all day. Met. said colder next week at the end of this weeks forecast this morning but I noticed they have taken that bit off the end now!-) just started raining now at 7.16 pm
On 20 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes Michael standard models very uncertain in the mid term and I found the MObeeb's hedge betting on the Jetstream almost amusing. More drizzly snow here last night and a sharp frost again. Hope this coming mild wet period at the weekend does not combine to cause another nightmare of melting snow on still saturated ground.
On 20 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Redhill...I recorded -6.8c this morning, real arctic air cold feeling this morning....beautiful The outlook is uncertain model wise, several different scenarios being touted from Atlantic crashing in to a Euro High to a Scandi High. So I'd say they are clueless
On 19 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Overcast a little mist a little drizzle max 7 deg 4 now at just after 10pm looked like a bit of a halo around the moon earlier too. Sorting seed list for the season ahead, we noticed it didn't get dark til just before 5 tonight also, it's nice to think of more outside time as we edge to the last part of winter.
On 19 Jan 2016, Michael (Wakefield) wrote:
Lots of talk on weather forums on a displaced polar vortex and potential SSW event likely to turn Feb cold. Will this happen, is gfs to be trusted? Only one way to find out. Subscribe.
On 19 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, bright start with a light NW’ly breeze, sunny morning but mostly cloudy afternoon, max temp 0˚, back down to -1 by 9pm. Mornings are now slowly beginning to lighten up earlier, whereas the afternoon light on clear days lasts almost until 5pm from barely 4pm a month ago. Pleasant to work outside in this dry cold. == Only just seen the updates, wow!
On 19 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers has tweeted, what appears to be a chart from GFS on his twitter account for the 26th of January. I didn't think he had any faith in the weather models??
On 19 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Saskia - My Jutter neighbour was very surprised when I said that as he never expected anyone here to know that. In the UK our local names such as Geordie and Cockney don't have a meaning as far as i know. In a past job my company had an office in Hamburg where they are Fischkopfs - fishheads. Clear and sunny has been the weather for London of late with night frosts and a chill on the commute into town. Article on WUWT about a paper trying to claim the medieval warm period didn't exist in Greenland and Baffin Island. Dr Luening has a crowd-funded programme to map the MWP by collating papers on the subject and exposes the weakness of this new paper. The warmist desperation must be growing as the populace remain indifferent and uninterested. The MWP is very inconvenient especially evidence that shows traces outside Europe. The video attacking the satellite records is more of the same.
On 19 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Piers
I should be ok to ask this now, did the Lower Strat Warming occur on the 15th / 16th Jan?
Models painting a very flat westerly outlook from weekend onwards with some very mild conditions for next week. A huge Euro High Pressure, result of the Lower Strat warming?
On 19 Jan 2016, JohnE wrote:
Another fresh but damp and benign day here in south Lancashire. We had a lot of snow on Saturday but by Sunday evening it was almost all gone with temperatures around 2C
I am pleased that I did not rush out and buy all sorts of sustaining items for the freeze that was predicted by Mr Madden and the various news papers who print his forecasts. Clearly he will always get some of it right because somewhere in the UK it will snow sometime from November through to the end of March but given the dire warnings that were printed on many front pages and looking at what is happening in large parts of mainland Europe we have escaped for now.
On 19 Jan 2016, Krib wrote:
It's -2 deg in London at 9.20am!
On 19 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Snowing again this morning after a milder period from yesterday afternoon-evening when it turned to rain after a snowy start in the morning. Grey and 'dreich', in the local vernacular
On 18 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A little fog just before and around first light, approx 4 deg. 8.30 a.m overcast with light drizzle, the day remained dull with showers on & off, max 6 deg. high humidity just started raining again before 11pm
On 18 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, grey & overcast morning with a very light NW’ly breeze, bright and sunny afternoon with a max temp of 1˚, dry all day bar a very light grainy snow drizzle (there is a word for that, which I forgot) this evening, 0˚ at 8.30pm. == Piers, even though I was never interested in him, partly because I wasn’t brought up in this country, I appreciate your hommage to David Bowie, creative spirit, well put. I’m also 5 years behind your generation, which is possibly why I was never into him, I was just a bit too young in 68 to realise what was going on.
On 18 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Rain, rain and more rain http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/76015327/thunderstorms-ease-but-weather-warnings-in-place-for-rain. I don't know how much we've had in the last 24 hours because the rain gauge is overflowing but I'd estimate over 100 mm. I feel vindicated though because I said in December that it wasn't going to be a hot, dry summer because of the strong El Nino weather pattern. A friend disagreed saying that all the weather models were going for very dry in this region but I didn't say anything. Gut feeling and MIA trends told me otherwise. Its been hot and will probably continue to be so but having rain like this in January (including a week ago) means we won't go into drought.
On 18 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers are you still confident on the last 11 or so days of January? I would be interested to hear year your thoughts on this as would others i am sure. The high and low pressures do not seem in favourable positions for said conditions, as it stands.
On 18 Jan 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Interesting forecast for February Piers I see it was issued under 12c 120days ago will you be producing a more up to date 45day one with 12cs?
On 18 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
The snow melted during the day and this morning was overcast and cold but warmer than it had been before the snow came. Daily Mail forecast for the south on Friday had Sunday as being clear and sunny in the South. Not a hint of the sun all day through the cloud which got darker and duller as the day progressed. No gold stars for that forecast. So we await the next weather event.
On 18 Jan 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
A dusting of snow where we live in SW Essex (only 20m ASL), but a good 2-3cm worth up in High Beech, Epping Forest on Sunday morning. By the time we'd picked my wife up from work at 2pm, it had all (sadly) melted. Still, our son still had time to make a snow angel before that happened and we took some lovely pictures. Piers - While I think of it, is there any way people can contribute photos which can be shared on this website? I thought it would be nice. :-)
On 18 Jan 2016, Allan wrote:
Great going Piers. Quakes all over the place 12-14 Jan.
On 18 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Coldest this morning was at 6AM with -5C. Funny how our locality is usually different from the rest of the country, either colder or warmer, but now hobbles right along with the surrounding area. See http://bit.ly/1OZ3MEm, top of the chart at the -7.3C mark (wind chill). Yesterday was brilliant with clear blue skies and sun all day long, which offered a good opportunity to chop a hefty load of wood. Temperatures remained around the freezing point, wind chill was negligible. BTW, a disintegrated fire grate in a small potbelly stove with even smaller fuel opening can be (temporarily) replaced with a stainless steel, collapsible veggie steamer. / OT: current temps (9 AM) -2.8C with -7.1C wind chill at 2BF SSW wind.
On 18 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Roughly 10 days of milder weather from now, until the last few days of January.
Looks like I was spot on this time,(read my comment backwards in chronological order.)
People forget,- winter is far from over in the N hemisphere until the equinox at the end of March. Ours started just after the autumn equinox.
"Super computers" managed by arrogant clots, will never beat a keen sense of observation, latest tools on solar observation sats, & classic radio ham* propagation info.
Did you know it was the 20th anniversary of the launch of SOHO on Dec 2nd?
"SOHO is a joint project of international cooperation between ESA & NASA".
This year will be 10th birthday of STEREO too, which observed the monster solar storm of 2012.
*It's a funny coincidence we use 10.7mhz,an IF superheterodyne freq,-a principle devised in 1918, -a frequency, so important on the sun!
(10.7 MHz solar flux).
"I would class this as a cold spell but not v cold. I think it will turn milder now this week"
On 18 Jan 2016, shaun (Wales) wrote:
My uni lecturer provided a link along with an activity a few weeks back, called a baloney detection kit.
It lists tools for testing arguments and detecting fallacious or fraudulent arguments.
I think climate change organisations need to go back to school, their arguments don't always stand the test.
I quite like... Occam's razor - if there are two hypotheses that explain the data equally well choose the simpler.
Instead they ignore natural variation (considering climate is a cyclical system which always oscillates from one extreme to the other and doesn't sit comfortably in the middle range) and instead we have this complex AGW scenario that doesn't deliver as promised and to some complex logic causes severe drought; but we get extreme rain, record high temps; but get record lows (2010), no more snow, but 2010, increase in pollution; we get a hiatus. All of which they have to find increasingly complex explanations for instead of the simpler one... natural variations of cyc
On 17 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mostly cloudy all day & cold rain showers by the middle of the day, temp milder at around 6-7 deg but feeling colder due to moderate SE'ly wind.
On 17 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-3˚C overnight, pretty cloudy all day but with good sunny periods in between, strong & cold S’ly breeze probably coming from a now cold northern Europe, max temp 0˚, down to -2 by 10pm. That’s now 5 days of good frost we’ve had, which should begin to kill carrot fly maggots remaining in the ground, frozen to about 10cm depth. No snow here.
On 17 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Snow!!! I was up on the North Downs at my old village last night and heading for home at 9.30pm it was snowing. A brief clear spell on the way but once on the M25 and all the way home it was snowing moderately. This morning there about 3/4" of lying snow but already it has melted on the tarmac. The road is clear. Overcast and bright at 11am with the odd flake coming down. The Met O proudly stated that their new computer cost other people £97m and it will cement the UK's position as a World leader in weather and climate prediction. Which indeed it has, because Piers still leads the way while they flounder. Re - Allen One of the questions people often ask is why would the warmists lie? What drives so called 'scientists' to carry out pseudo science, cherry pick and fiddle data? Are some blinded by the money they can get? Are they Marxists for whom nothing is wrong in pursuit of the cause of socialist World government?
On 17 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
We had roughly 4 hours of snow last night leaving about 5cm but it is starting to thaw now. I would say BBC forecasts over the last week, have been worse than ever. Temps way out at times across the UK and yesterday was laughable.
I would class this as a cold spell but not very cold. I think it will turn milder now this week but for how long?
On 17 Jan 2016, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Yes we had snow at last in the Chilterns cold and bright yesterday and Piers forecasted it under the new SLAT 12cs Yet i find it strange that the MetO did not even forecast it 24 hours ahead and it was only when i was fishing yesterday that they forecasted it.Has anybody seen the BBC weather for the week ahead they might as well just say "WE DONT KNOW" maybe some disruptive snow but maybe not.About a year ago Piers made a well known forecast "The MetO are spending 10 million pounds of tax payers money on a super computer only for them to get it wrong quicker"
On 17 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
9am. cloudy and dull. 2 mph air movement SSE. Pressure 1025. Temperature 5 degrees. Humidity 97. Lowest it has been was yesterday am at -2. Not nice out , no sparkle
On 16 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill wrote:
It's actually snowing here in the Chilterns, winter has been a long time coming but now we have ice and snow!
On 16 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Currently (23:15 hrs) a difference of 6C (1.7C and -4.2C) over 60kms as the crow flies, although just 3.7C wind chill difference (-5.1C and -8.8C resp.). A 6BF NNW wind is varying both in strength and direction, and today we started off with rain, then snow and mostly hail in the afternoon. This evening it has snowed a little again, and it has remained on both the streets and roofs. Let's see what tomorrow will bring ...
On 16 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30 & staying at that all day, along with a light NW’ly breeze, clear start and some sunshine in the morning, clouding over by midday and staying gray for the rest, -2˚ by 8pm.
On 16 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Frost & ice not as hard this morning although there was still some frozen snowy patches around the place, some nice sunshine again and half of the frosty stuff cleared during the day, nice for working outside albeit a bit parky, good to get some fresh air, dry until late afternoon then a few short light drizzly showers, max 4 deg. really foggy this evening and 2-3 deg at 20.24 pm
On 16 Jan 2016, bob wrote:
well the snow to the south's been overhyped pathetic and feel a tad annoyed was hoping fot some decent snow in the south probably gave to wait ten years before I see some in a cold city of portsmouth pffft 1 to 3 cm was hoping for least 4 inches at least??
On 16 Jan 2016, Catherine (45 d sub) wrote:
Been snowing constantly here near Glasgow for nearly 4 hours. Was as low as -5 degrees overnight so snow falling on frozen ground. 3 to 4 cm just now and still going.
Black Pearl: I first became aware of Piers from a Channel 4 programme called The great global warming swindle (or something similar) a number of years ago. Not long after it was shown it was removed from the 4OD catch up service and has never been shown since. So the stifling of any serious debate has been going on for years.
On 16 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Well done Piers. BBC forecasts had mainly dry for UK this weekend and now weather warnings for snow are being issued in parts of England even the south. Will there be more snow than thier warnings illustrate?
On 15 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Scottish MObeeb, now backtracked to -5C at 2230hrsovernight rather than the -10 C forecast at 1830 hrs. Nary a mention of H Alex.
On 15 Jan 2016, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 15 Jan 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
" So Professor Allen’s whole life’s work is a fictional computer game fantasy world, bringing both Oxford an Britain into disrepute."
****************************************************************
...and yet he and many others get a great deal of TV media time and coverage.
Makes one wonder who is behind this 'Mission Statement' on climate change as we NEVER see such TV time given given to the contrary ever.... !!!
On 15 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, clear sky with a sharp WNW breeze, sunny until 10am, then snow flurries off & on while warming to 2˚, dry and sunny again in the afternoon with the lying thin layer of snow disappearing fast, clear night & down to 0˚ by 8.30pm with a goodish W’ly breeze.
On 15 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The breeze dropped off after my post last night and the light covering of snow we had rapidly froze -3 but felt colder, house was def. feeling cold so popped outside at 1.30 a.m to put some logs on the boiler in our shed to give us another couple of hrs heat & the small stones were moulded together with snow and ice making for a tricky short walk and the steps were incredibly icy. Hard not to fall on backside whilst looking at the amazing starry sky!-) No surprise to find the road white and very dodgy looking this morn. I could hear the bus coming from ages away as the tyres fought with the slippery gritty icy snowy surface, in all honesty shouldn't have let them go in till later as tractors hardly left a mark on the road. Mostly clear by lunch but still lingering in places when kids got home. Some lovely sunshine and only a few clouds around the edges, max 3 deg. 0 now at 8pm more like -3 clear starry sky and re freezing.
On 15 Jan 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part (2): The eternally random results vary from just above Zero to 11 Kelvin using the doubling of CO2, with the discredited Arrhenius method of calculating the Greenhouse effect. The Unified Theory of Climate always produces what is observed for the Earth, Mars and Venus. And implies that CO2 warming on Earth is zero. So Professor Allen’s whole life’s work is a fictional computer game fantasy world, bringing both Oxford an Britain into disrepute.
On 15 Jan 2016, Richard Pinder wrote:
Professor Myles Allen was on ITV’s “Tonight” yesterday. He said that this was the “Warmest December ever by over two degrees“ and that this was evidence for “The first signs of Climate Change coming through into British weather” he also said this El Nino was “The largest natural climate fluctuation in existence” and that it “Is being overtaken by Climate Change”. Allen graduated with a BA in Physics and Philosophy from St John's College, Oxford, in 1987. He heads the Climate Dynamics Group of the Department of Oceanic and Planetary Physics at Oxford. An expensive and useless jumped up unit which produces thousands of random results from Computer Models, after Allen set up climateprediction.net. The computer models produce random outcomes, without using past correlations other than from a cherry picked period from 1975 to 1997.
On 15 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian Weather Service not in sync with MObeeb's double digit frost forecast for Highland Scotland Fri- Sat-Sun, indeed scarcely reaching half of that severity---and no indication of snow given---somebody will be proved to be talking shit--hope it's the MObeeb
On 15 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
MNObeeb now backtracking on extremely low temperatures for Scotland on Sat night/Sunday morning, though still going for -10C tomorrow morning. Instead now predicting milder air from Atlantic coming in and producing some sleet and snow as it bumps into the cold air. What a difference half a day makes in standard models!!
On 15 Jan 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Ron, according to NOAA, the storm is projected to head north then turn west just before Greenland - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084042.shtml?5-daynl. So, the Azores will probably get smashed but places like Tenerife (where a family friend is going today) are safer just off the coast of NW Africa. A very, very strange track for a storm/hurricane, esp in January!
On 15 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Well Alex cannot be at the Azores and at 60N at the same time, So what's in store for the UK and Ireland--anyone got a frrggin clue?
On 15 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
It completely passed in front of my nose-I didn't see it.Arrival of Alex to LAT 60N & above is noteworthy because it v likely shows a SSW is already active.
Greenland is considered to be the"achilles heel"of the polar vortex.
More data:-
1/ "It is shown that the low pressure core of the mature hurricane, before recurvature, extends not only throughout the troposphere but sometimes protrudes into the lower stratosphere up to about 27 km.The upper core is found to be cold above 15 km. with temperatures occasionally 8°–10° C."
2/ Muon/Neutrino count>correlations to N hemisphere weather in winter.
Because solar activity is v low currently, cosmic ray flux is v high.
"study shows how the number of high-energy cosmic-rays reaching a detector deep underground, closely matches temp measurements..in the stratosphere.ie.observed a strikingly close relationship between cosmic-rays & stratospheric temp.If temp increases (by up to 40C in places!) so does the number of muons detected....
On 15 Jan 2016, Mike (45 day subs) wrote:
Re: Hurricane Alex over the Azores. See article
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12101009/First-January-Atlantic-hurricane-in-78-years-threatens-Azores.html
Says the formation is nothing to do with EL Nino. Piers please can you comment on this fascinating extraordinary subject!
On 15 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Alex is going to hit 60N as a major artic depression in about 24h or so.This brings a massive amount of humidity/precipitation into v cold air.
The first result of a depression this size is for the MO to go into denial!
(seriously now) it drags a mass of predominantly freezing air from the rising pressure off N Russia in the opposite direction from the current W>E trend, to east to west instead.
Temperatures are extremely low over the entire scandinavian/Finland/Baltic region & dropping fast as pressure rises following the depression which crossed the region tues.
It's this pressure rise which could bring v cold air from the East to bear on Western Europe until the jetstream once again starts blasting up from N Africa towards fri next week.
In any case none of this brings anything good to the wave of extreme cold we're experiencing around S Finland>St Petersburg region.
Read v heavy snowfall for Poland, Ukraine, Baltic states after midweek.
Yesterday eve -22C> NASTY!
On 15 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
This morning (06:45 AM) temperatures of 2.3C, dew point of 1.1C with a wind chill of -2.9C at 4BF NE wind. Snow seems to be indecisive about whether or not to 'come visit' us. / @Maria, Gerry, CraigM & Paddy: thank you for the 'welcome back' ! It's been a rough and sad year, and I may not be as regular as I used to be. However, will try and keep everybody updated on the local weather. @Craig: email. Sorry about that, thought I included it. @Gerry - Tell your colleague he's a 'jutter' (beachcomber; old village nickname ;-) Pronounce 'j' as in 'yew', 'u' as in 'hurt', t as t, 'er' as in 'her'. Just say a 'schollekop' (plaice head; from Scheveningen, the famous Dutch throat 'ch'/g) told you so *grin*
On 15 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Some very windy weather for parts of central and southern NZ today. Been very hot and humid here but not windy. The Cook Islands are on alert for a tropical depression to change into a cyclone. Good to have you back Saskia. we've missed your comments.
On 14 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Craig - I posted at the end of December that warm air going into the poles/northern hemisphere could flip us to cold weather. God knows what an hurricane would do if it tracks into that region? I believe it is suppossed to go towards the Azores, but with such contrasting airmasses in the Atlantic at the minute, anything could happen.
Trying to arrange any travel plans around work at the minute is not easy, due to unreliable forecasts, but from past experience i cannot see the Atlantic air returning very quickly next week.
On 14 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, brilliant blue sky coming up, everything frozen solid, no more mud. Another great winter’s day with lots of sunshine, nippy NW’ly breeze all day, max temp 0˚. Noticed already yesterday how much longer the day is in the afternoon just over three weeks after the solstice, just brill. -1˚ by 10pm. My wife came back from Glasgow this afternoon on the train and said that there was an enormous amount of snow around Stirling, nothing here. == SASKIA, welcome back! We’ve been missing your interesting posts.
On 14 Jan 2016, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Piers has a video interview with the Thunderbolts project Watch “@Piers_Corbyn: Electrical Weather | Space News” === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/watch-piers_corbyn-electrical-weather-space-news/ === Final word on Alex, this is just the start of the weird weather Piers has been warning of for years. It's unprecedented in the modern era, but far from unprecedented. It's why when I speak to peolle more senior than me who have lived through many more seasons they tend to see cycles repeating. Wait long enough during a drought and a deluge will surely follow. Warm winters do not last forever (Samuel Pepys noted warm winters c. 1659-61 which was followed by some brutal ones*) Only a fool casts away their coats at the first breath of spring. * see === http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm
On 14 Jan 2016, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Thank you Maria (somerset). Maria - Ireland - Just to add a correction to the year it's actually 78 years which puts us in Wolf-Gleissberg cycle territory. I'm sure I have seen 1938 come up in a fee things earlier this year. Anyway this is what the MetO said today ===
"Alex became the first subtropical storm to develop in the North Atlantic in January since 1978. In the last day Alex has continued to develop a strong central mass of storm clouds rotating around a small eye and the National Hurricane Center has now designated it as a full blown hurricane. Alex is the first North Atlantic hurricane to exist in the month of January since Alice in 1955 and the first to actually form in the month of January since 1938." === So clearly it's not CO2. // Saskia - wonderful to have you back maybe this is your 1978 repeat with the hurricaine & at 38yrs ago is lunar. // Gentle reminder to include your email or we can't publish the comment. Thanks
On 14 Jan 2016, Alistair wrote:
We have had some snow today in Hull which lasted for perhaps a couple of hours which I wasn't expecting, though I hasten to add it fell on wet ground meaning it was unable to lay.
I was reading a post this evening on another weather site which said '' the last occasions that Hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during Winter was January 1955 and January 1978.
Both these winters had very mild Decembers but notable cold spells from mid January onwards."
I also noted that a question regarding this phenomena which as I understand, unusual for this time of year, was put to James Madden on his Facebook page, it asked for his thoughts about how it might impact on the rest of this winter.
It will be interesting to see what he says in reply.
On 14 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers is this hurricane going to help, or hinder your updated forecast??
On 14 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
craig, I wish we could have likes for posts!! wonderful
On 14 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Biting wind today that would surely turn any precipitation white. Some cold rain arriving in London this morning but it passed away. Frosty starts the last two mornings and the house will take a bit of warming up this evening - noticeable cooling. Will be lighting the fire in a while and curling up on the sofa. Welcome back Saskia - you have been missed. I sit next to a guy from Den Helder at work.
On 14 Jan 2016, Krib (Essex) wrote:
Snowing quite heavily here in Essex (Colchester)! Big snow flakes and beginning to settle. Marking 0 deg! Windy too.
On 14 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Craig I was only reading about tropical storm Alex yesterday and thinking would it influence our weather, so it's intensified into a hurricane & like you say does make for interesting weather times ahead :-) Paddy thanks for info it worked, managed to change it to pdf and email to my phone from there cheers. Icy this morn. cold today max 3-4 deg. felt colder, some sunny spells, light nw wind increasing a bit tonight, SnOw around 18.50 pm :D a light covering here in Laois!-) Saskia good to see you back I would love a repeat of Feb 78 when I was born in Devon uk so I can see what proper snow is all about ;-)
On 14 Jan 2016, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
I would not place any faith in the models. Hurricane Alex is the first seen in January since 1939 (77 years) . This is what Ian Fergusson (BBC Points West) said in the regional NetWeather forums today " It's THE key fly in ointment. Pump tropical moisture north via a very rare January hurricane/tropical storm into our wintry latitudes and then just sit and watch the models go beserk. Latest UKMO-GM just one potential outcome of many (albeit looking a very interesting one for the snow lovers, at some point)." ===. Interestingly some very meridional solutions being thrown - the long jetstream! Be wary of model output as it is going to flip flop between freezer and torch - I would not bet the fluff in pockets on them. Subscribe if you want to know whats coming!!!!
On 14 Jan 2016, brandon wrote:
I don't know what's going on exacta and other sites going for massive cold blast models changing all the time last time this happened I remember 5 days after the new year in 2010 whole of england got caught out... but still the other 50% forecasters going for very mild?! and being in Hampshire could well be mild for the remainder I'm guessing?!
On 14 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian weather service going for a break down of the cold spell in the Grampian Highlands on Wednesday of next week, but with no substantial precipitation and little snow.
On 14 Jan 2016, Susan wrote:
You might be interested to know that the PM of Ireland Enda Kenny was asking the Dept of environment to come up with someone who could provide along range weather forecasts after all the dreadful flooding. If UKs PM doesn't want to avail of your services Ireland's might just be interested Piers.
On 14 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
we just missed the snow here last night, but a brilliantly sunny but cold day. Just spoke to one of the people flooded out recently and said to her ' better that the sun shines through your window than the river coming through your door'. She actually managed a laugh.
On 14 Jan 2016, theguvnor wrote:
As always a great post at WUWT on 'abject failure' of official climate models when measured against recorded data.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/13/the-abject-failure-of-official-global-warming-predictions/
The BBC also is taming its viewpoint with recent 'wild weather' programme concluding that there is too much unknown on climate for us to predict with certainty using models. Slingo maintained her dogmatic stance though, spose otherwise that new super computer wouldn't be on it's way. Frosty start here in SW with slight icing of standing water. Very sunny now though (noon)
On 14 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
The difference in the two weekly forecasts on the Mobeeb site last night and this morning are almost funny, but they do openly admit in this morning's one, a great deal of uncertainty in those infamous computer models as far as what is going to happen in terms of the longevity of thy current colder spell. Suggests lasting to Wednesday, but the GFS shows milder weather approaching even by Saturday. No doubt, after I've had another brew of coffee on the wood burning stove, GFS will have changed before I get to putting the milk in the cup
On 14 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Not sure what "models" you mean.
You are totally correct about a return to mild weather over western Europe, because the jet stream will canter off to the west then off to the south again.
However, end Jan yet again, strongly suggests a similar scenario to the next few days.
In any case it's small comfort for Eastern Europe as we really DO have a severe winter this year.
JS Meanders just mean switching between extreme clear cold Anticyclonic to slightly warmer as the depressions arrive and pile more snow on what is already up to 1m in many places.
It is already going to be an unsually long winter as heavy snow started in Ural in the 1st week of October.
The Baltic this winter is icing right over.
Some of the ice thickness stats are starting to look really impressive off the coast of Finland, with heavy icing of sea going vessels.
" models do show, and forecasts ay, a return next week to very mild again."
On 14 Jan 2016, Roger snow lover wrote:
North London ,January 14th, cold, no frost yet this winter, no snow, little promise of snow. Look at Cohen on AED; he suggests and very likely SSW late January, and maybe cold for UK in February . he also adds that we are out in the Atlantic, so almost anything is possible. But models do show, and forecasts ay, a return next week to very mild again. The Atlantic will not give up, or the jet stream. Comments, Piers?
On 14 Jan 2016, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Freezing rain and icy road conditions kept our village on lock down Tuesday thru Thursday last week. It also snowed then, albeit just a little. Following several days of fairly mild weather and some sunshine, temperatures dropped last night as the SSE wind picked up. Wind chill this morning was the 'coldest' in the country at -4.2Celsius. It just (8:30 AM) rained with some confused hail wandering between the drops. Local forecasts are interesting, varying from 'just rain and sunshine' to absolute appalling 'snowed in' scenarios. A repeat of the 1978/1979 winter?
On 14 Jan 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL THANK YOU! ONE was recently not posted because it gave away forecast info. Think before you write! ANYONE THINKING OF RENEWING NOW OR BEING A NEW SUBSCRIBER, DO IT TODAY! >>> The 12months for 6 ENDS TODAY <<< Its nice getting the snow now and note even though our forecast was an update it still got the snow ahead of all the other dithering standard Mets. These are tricky weather times that's for sure actually including for us. NOW watch carefully the last 11 days or so of January. It is interesting to test our SLAT proverb on standard Met: "Standard Met cannot forecast through an R4 or R5". THAT is a good guide. BTW looking at our Red period category Rules this R4 12-14th should really have been labelled R5 and that is born out by events around the world in this period - an Atlantic Tropical Storm forming and that huge storm over Sydney Australia; AND see how (home page LHS) solar wind speed and temperature ramped up on 11/12th and Bz south (connectivity) went up.
On 13 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, frosty and clear morning, sunshine all day, light W’ly breeze, dry and cold as on a real winter’s day. Even with a max temp of 1˚ the frost never left and the ground stayed hard & got even harder, -2˚ by 10pm. == Maria Laois, try Libre Office, it’s free & opens all MS Office docs.
On 13 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
ps sorry Dean didn't see your coment, skim reading!-) so your update similarly messed up too, I'm sure will get sorted soon...Met here talking of mild returning end of next week too, Irish weather online think there could be something on the horizon later in the month that the models are not seeing as yet, model mayhem a brewing lol...
On 13 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
yes some interesting conflictions on the standard models. Mobeeb now predicting -15C frosts in central Highlands, but bearing in mind it was less than half as cold as they predicted this morning as per their predictions a few days ago, how can we have any confidence of that? GFS suggesting a messy breakdown of the cold block next week, but Mobeeb was going for a return of milder weather. Bet you it changes frequently in just a few hours
On 13 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Just noticed Met.ie have a snow and ice warning up for 9 counties issued this afternoon. Orange for Donegal Leitrim, Mayo & Sligo, 4-8 cm from midnight tonight - midnight tomorrow, with highest amounts on high ground.Yellow for Longford Cavan Monaghan Galway and Roscommon. 2-4 cm
None for us but hope they mess up and we get some too :) but they are just forecasting -2 clear with ice and frost here in Laois.. Max 4 deg. felt colder, hard frost cleared by late morn. some cold showers on n off all day some sleety in nature. Can't get the latest update at all even graph off too, our daughter tried but she hasn't got office, not sure if it's that though as I got the pressure maps update before that on my mobile, will try again tomorrow tho and see if I can download.
On 13 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
YELLOW warnings out now for this region for snow
Only yesterday forecast said rain and sleet showers. Models now firming up on cold lasting until middle of next week at least. with some interesting possibilities from 18th . Snowy breakdown of cold block with Atlantic return , widespread snow or very cold but dry??
On 13 Jan 2016, Gary wrote:
Not sure if anybody has read this, but it back sup some of Pier's claims against "Global Warming"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html
On 13 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
12.30 pm, pressure up a little 1015.6, tiny breeze SSE direction. 0-2 mph. Temperature 6 degrees. Sunny and pleasant
On 13 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
My daughter thinks it's my mobile so she will try loading it on her lap top in a bit, thanks though Paddy and no worries don't beat yourself up over it!-) ha ha ;) Really frosty here 1deg at 8.45 a.m... Eastside interesting info too..
On 13 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Ooops! Maria et al: apologies for giving wrong info re pdfs, that update is of course an MS Word doc! Note to self: slap wrist.
On 13 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
A winter storm came with a strong low pressure system & wind.
(was predicting something like this for 5-8 days+)
"Adverse Weather Conditions Force Mass Flight Cancellations in Moscow"
It has also affected Latvia, Estonia, Finland.
When it's accompanied by strong winds then the danger is not from actual precip, but drifting snow which can quickly make transport unpredictable.
It's expected to continue for another 30hrs.
There is also a strong band of precipitation off Ireland in the British isles, which would indicate moderate to heavy snowfall in Ireland, Wales, Devon, Normandie.
None of the "normal" weather forecasters are/were predicting anything similar, which is supposed to be their job.
It's strange as the jet stream is bringing a strong northerly airstream to much of the continent for the next few days & EUmetsat can't be wrong.
I've been warning of this for 2 weeks.
Why so few valid warnings?
In our part of the world they are ALL yellow, and correct.
On 12 Jan 2016, Kent Weald wrote:
Gerry: ref puddles/floods and diesels. Still take care, water in the air filter not a good idea esp if it goes any further!
Been trying to find a dry 24 hours to get some particular work done. Failing miserably every time the 5 day forecast shows a dry period for long enough He presto it changes to rain at some stage within the previously dry slot. They are soooooo good at short term forecasts . Not......
On 12 Jan 2016, Dean wrote:
Yes Maria, the format has come out wrong...cannot read text in places due to several superimposed UK maps one on top of another! Yes normal percentage maps missing. Piers, perhaps a reformat is necessary of your latest monthly forecast? 😉
On 12 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, a lot of rain overnight, wind changed to light NW’ly and feeling rather colder, especially in the frequent showers in the morning, drier afternoon, max temp 4˚, down to 2˚ by 10pm. == Maria Ireland, you should be able to download the maps from the subscriber page as a pdf. or type the link from Piers’ email into the address bar of your browser and then save the page.
On 12 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Hey I was just wondering if it's my slow internet connection or mobile device or if the latest Jan update with graph and maps has downloaded wrong, as maps missing in boxes and temp & precip % pics too, graph and summary I think fine tho, could be my end?-) not moaning just wondering ;)
On 12 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
No frost this morning 3 deg at 8.30 a.m but felt like -3 with the raw blustery wind. Sunny for a nice time and then overcast. Mostly clear wind stopped and 3 deg feeling colder now at 7.10 pm
On 12 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
2 pm. Pressure is rising. Wind direction changed slightly to WNW. Blustery winds 7 to 17. Temp 7 c
On 12 Jan 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Models split 50/50 over whether the cold will either cling on after this weekend or slip to the continent allowing an (unwelcome?) return of mild SW'lies. GFS going for return to mild with battleground frontal snow on Monday, GEM going for HP slap bang over the UK followed by reload of cold N/NW'lies in the 7 - 10 day range. Mind you, it'll all change again in 6 hours as it always does!
On 12 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Opposite to Steve to some extent. Flooding by the station had eased but still needed care not to get soaked by passing cars. Heading up my road I saw a puddle and slowed as it is an unlit street and the depth took me by surprise. From then until the gradient started the road was awash. Fine in a diesel of course but could catch out unwary petrol drivers. Surprised as it was clear in the morning. Evening out and signs of other floods having receded. Cold night and clear blue sky this morning. No ice on van luckily. Some cloud has built up during the morning.
On 12 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
I've been noticing that the' severe' frost the MObeeb forecast for northern Scotland on Wednesday morning has come down just about every day --minus 10, 9, 8 and now just 5. Quite a normal January frost. So half as cold as originally predicted, within just a few days.
On 12 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
7.45 am temp 6.2 c and dropped from 7.5 c at midnight. Rained all afternoon yesterday, felt cold, miserable lashing sort of rain, didn`t stop me back and forth getting fuel bags into the house. Pellet use has increased noticeably, thermostat based stove, keeping the house fabric warm very important for us oldies. Wind is 5 from west, was expecting 4 x that from metO forecast. MetO says no rain today, we`ll see, sky looks heavy and grey. Pressure is 998 hpa More bird feeders bought, filled and out. Am liking the pressure charts a lot, even more than the standard format. Can better see the transition from one stage to the next
On 11 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast with a light S’ly breeze, quite sunny at times in the morning but then back to grey & cloudy again by afternoon with a stronger wind, max temp 4˚, back down to 2˚ by 9.30pm.
On 11 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Snow yesterday reported on Glendalough, comeragh mountains, Mount Leinster to name a few and the Sally Gap Wicklow road closed due to snow, beginning to feel more like winter..
On 11 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Really clear starry night with frost and ice setting in early last night. Widespread frost and ice this morning -2 / -3 first good proper frost this winter, bamboo and maple branches sparkling, pond frozen and white grass all around made the garden look pretty, downside roads were well icy from recent rainy days. 1 deg by 11 a.m and frost cleared from the sun. Overcast after and some scattered cold at times sleety showers, NW'ly wind picking up a bit this eve. Partly cloudy and 4 deg feeling colder at 8.15 pm
On 11 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Well it only got to 4.degrees here today and it was supposed to be 6/7. That felt freezing outside and that's not particularly cold. The will it won't snow is just not been resolved (by standard models)and we are 48hrs away from potential events now. GFS is terrible and goes from mild extremes to cold ones.
On 11 Jan 2016, Steve Devine wrote:
Had an interesting journey trying to get to the station this morning. Epic amounts of rain overnight made the farmers' fields flood, which in turn flooded the main road, which in turn caused one unfortunate driver to stall and abandon their vehicle, which in turn caused a traffic jam spanning a mile-wide impact zone. Finally arrived at work fed up but relieved our car didn't succumb to the flood waters aswell. Mostly cloudy here in Canary Wharf. Currently 8c. My weather app says sleet for Friday then cold and sunny at the weekend. Sounds realistic enough, even if it does change by the time I get home lol. Subscribers - you need to see the updated European forecast for Jan if you haven't already done so...
On 11 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
After my morning post of yesterday, in the afternoon it came over all grey and dark, then a flash of lightning, a crack of thunder and the heavens opened. A massive hailstorm coming down so fast that my patio went white. Some hours later when emptying the full rain gauge again there was still ice crystals in the plants. More rain overnight and during the early hours flooding the footways on the way to the station with water coming up from one gulley then going down the next but also pouring up from a sewer inspection chamber. Too dark early on to see the rain gauge.
On 11 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
yes its comic but i'm putting food out for the polar bears just in case for when they come over the ice bridge....:) talking of comic the bbc 5 days has changed again. The daily forecast is spinning like fruit machine wheels [snow wind rain cold dry sunny overcast] so the models must be going crazy.
On 11 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The daily express forecast Britain will disappear, under snow and ice every year without fail. It sells papers because weather does spike the publics interest. Madden claims to have a unique forecast incorperating solar factors that started in 2010??? He seems to issue the same forecasts year after year. He will always state snow from end of october and a world end scenario in January.
On 11 Jan 2016, Piers_corbyn on twitter wrote:
Well put Nick, but it's fair to note two things 1 When Nathan Rao quotes me the actual quotes are in my experience accurate. 2 For the OTT stories where he might know i dont agree he does not quote me. For example yesterday - sunday - afternoon there were two stories the first one quoted me and was pretty good, the second one was OTT end of world stuff in which i was not quoted, instead it had quotes from some with whom i prefer not to be quoted! Spin apart, and headlines which are put there by attention seeking sub editors, NR who btw is now freelance, has increased interest in weather and understanding of concepts such as jet stream. When you see an NR story first skim through it and see who is quoted
On 11 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Who makes up this bllox in the Express?
I swam in the sea, ie.-channel etc. Eastbourne/Dieppe+south Wales in Oct-Nov-Dec. The sea temperatures are/were about as warm & balmy as you could ever wish for!
In fact it was a lot colder in the Serpentine!
One certainly wouldn't need a wet suit, just stormy conditions/autumn high tides demand extra vigilance not to get caught out by dangerous currents!
According to tabloids, their version reads as follows:-"This has slowed down the pace at which the Gulf Stream channels warm water from the Caribbean, up the coast of the US, & to north Europe.
Sea temperatures around the UK are unusually LOW leaving Britain open to the full force of the Arctic blast when it arrives." (WTF!)
Then from the climate pervs comes this gem!
"the UK(was)set for its warmest Dec in nearly 70 years, forecasters announced that 2016 is set to be the hottest year yet.MO says the El Nino trend to combine with man-made global warming"!
Great forecasters! MO!
On 11 Jan 2016, Nick, Berks wrote:
Richard, the Express in general (and Nathan Rao in particular) is about as unreliable as it gets and these stories are there as clickbait. They rely heavily on quotes from James Madden, from whom, in this instance, the 'ice floes' statement derives. They follow the same pattern of mixing in his stuff with quotes from more serious forecasters and then have introductory statements like 'forecasters say' to imply that there is a consensus and that the more outrageous quotes, often used in the headlines, have credibility. It's comic book stuff.
On 11 Jan 2016, Jan 30d wrote:
All I can say Piers is Phew! Thankyou for your hard work getting this all together. Glad I subscribed.
On 10 Jan 2016, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Not able to subscribe for a while but take each week as it comes. Remember back to 2009 when severe flooding affected all of Ireland and then the big freeze up came after that.
That was a big El Niño year too. Interesting week ahead as Madden predicts the end of the world again! If it snows I light the fire and hide!
On 10 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Meto 5 days just seen a dramatic change as the snowbomb is bigged up to the extent of predictiong ice flows off the south east. Will the channel freeze up? lol.....http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years?google_editors_picks=true
On 10 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, big melt underway after some pretty heavy rain overnight, happy to see the back of the snow for now. SSE’ly breeze all day, a few rays of sunshine but mostly showery and cloudy, down to 2˚ by 9pm. == Steve Dorset, we even had amber warnings Thu & Fri last week and it did chuck it down. This time it was the Don & Ythan rather than the Dee flooding, major mess. == Thanks for update, Piers, watching the upcoming R4.
On 10 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Paddy Aberdeen south...... Hey how is it you get to see yellow rain, the met office as I call them are tedious in the extream, red warnings rarely get put out, you would have to be up to your necks in yellow rain or snow to get maybe pink warnings,
I see you had cold up north, we in Dorset haven't had that yet but we may just get some this week according to the MO.
Felt chilly today first time for ages ,may be the real winter around the corner, 9c with sunny periods today,
Thank you for the update piers it can't have been easy to sort out so soon after the hols it is appreciated.
On 10 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Patchy frosty start lingering all day in some parts of the garden esp on saturated wood things, some nice sunshine all day but cold so sawing wood and making loads of lighting sticks from pallets was the job of choice to keep warm. Cheers for 30d Jan update Piers, such a fan that I woke up an looked & found it in the subscriber box at 5.00 a.m chuffed :D delighted with the one off freebie map format, I have pucker proper maps to pin on me wall, my geography lessons are coming in handy after all these years!-) worth subscribing that's for sure..
On 10 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
suddenly out of nowhere meto scream extreme cold, snow etc with a 'level 2 cold weather alert'. Snow is forecast as far south as London, Kent, Devon and Cornwall http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
On 10 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Alot of work gone into that update and it confirms how complex the situation has become. Some might get what they have been wishing for.
On 10 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Thanks for the forecast update - I think!!! Right mix of weather lately. Ice scraping Thurs am, then rain 10 mins later, some sharp showers around, Out in the City in the afternoon with mostly blue the sky, the Shard was lost in an angry grey mass of cloud. Sat was mainly grey with heavy showers. Strong wind in the evening. Rain gauge falling over with the cup virtually full. That's about 2 ins since Tue am. Blue sky coming over now at 1130 but had plenty of sharp showers already. Re- UK Energy, it most certainly is NOT a free market. The regulator has messed up as much as government interference. If I wanted to build a coal power station it would have to be fitted with CCS - which doesn't work and isn't of any benefit anyway. Interesting graph in Bob Tisdale post on WUWT re 2015 temps showing divergence of surface temps from sat records from 2005. Evidence of the fiddling even lowering 1998 El Nino to promote warming now.
On 10 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
No frost or snow this morning, with signs of rain overnight. Still chilly but not frozen like yesterday. Thanks for the new updates. Interesting contrasts with standard models. Nuff said.
On 10 Jan 2016, tony sub wrote:
thanks for the update piers ,this postie will now need to decide whether its shorts or long uns only those who subscribe will know so i suggest if you want to know what to wear subscribe
On 10 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Thank you SO MUCH, a lot to take in. This is vital help for me wrt my preps particularly stove fuel and even candle power. Honest, candles in my metal lanterns are enough to keep me warm if we have prolonged power cuts. Food is already stored but fuel is priority as I can`t be doing with carrying it in over dodgy ground at my age. Will be storing indoors as long as needed. If forecast is outside the confidence % area then so be it, I would much rather be prepared, just in case.
On 10 Jan 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
IT'S THERE! THE IMPORTANT SLAT12cs Eu+BI UPDATE Pressure maps in 8 periods for JAN 2016 is now loaded! Study and enjoy! It is in form of MsDoc. Feedback (not public) welcome!
On 09 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, all the snow and mush frozen, a grey dark day with a light NW’ly breeze, gradually warming to 1˚ and raining by 4pm. We still have a yellow rain warning in force for tomorrow and the various forecasters are now announcing a cold spell next week.
On 09 Jan 2016, Jan 30d wrote:
Hi Piers, any news on the updates? your doing a grand job.
On 09 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Meant to also say it was snowing in West Wicklow a couple of hours ago and sticking..
On 09 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
A G1minor geomagnetic storm off the NOAA NWS space weather prediction centre has been posted for the Sun due to a coronal hole NASA tracking this large coronal hole - interesting - how will that affect the weather? I could not post the in depth polarity speed information it got complicated but hope you get the gist
On 09 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloudy day some odd drizzly showers max 5 deg. Foggy, now more constant light showers this eve. 3 deg. at 21.58 pm
On 09 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
"With that mix of mild moisture laden air and sudden polar air, i would imagine somewhere in NW Europe will recieve very large snow falls in the next few weeks"
Indeed, I have been predicting up to 1m snow falls for Scandinavia/Northern Ural for some weeks now. It looks like this may come true as the temperatures rise to more like -17C to -8C in the next few days, & then the JS drops a ton of moist westerly originated air on this very cold air.
In Moscow last winter nearly 2m of snow landed in 48hrs, bringing even Domodedevo airport to a halt (that's rare!).
We were forecast 0.1cm falls per hr last week & calm weather, but instead we got 10cm+ in a few hrs, & enough wind to make for drifts.
I notice the general outlook is still for heavy snow in the UK as far south as the Cotswolds in the next 7-9 days, then all over N France/Ardennes/France Comte right out to the Rhine valley.
I'm curious to see if it comes true, I've only been late ONCE on Russian trains due to snow!
On 09 Jan 2016, Michael wrote:
Interesting comments from Eastside.With such low temperature,where are you situated Eastside.
On 09 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
yes it must be very difficult, given the massive fluctuations likely in an MIA, to get the shorter term variation bang to rights over such a relatively small island land mass that is Britain and Ireland. We had a frost cold enough to freeze the inside of windows in unheated rooms and now it has clouded over with snow flaking away. It is certainly not mild, but the dryness is much appreciated by those who have suffered greatly from the recent incredibly wet spell.
On 09 Jan 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
CITIZENS! THANK YOU for your involvemnet and patience in these ever more exciting weather times. The forecast new SLAT12cs work has taken some time and Xmas etc factors have also caused delays. LOOK ON HOME PAGE for explanations and news - some of which have been there some time - on what is going on. New Europe maps for Jan are very exciting and will be loaded during today and unusually also made available to B+I 30d only users. EAST SIDE interesting stuff but the existence of Jet Stream wildness is also part of our LONG range understanding. WeatherAction's SLAT is not a victim of short & medium range forward projection failings. We predicted what was called #StormFrank 10 weeks ahead despite all the 'uncertainties' involved. Its a bit like standard Met forecasts outflow of passengers at a railway station by analysing what happened in the last hour but not having railway timetables - unreliable. SLAT has railway timetables which can (like now) change & we know pretty well how, too.
On 09 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Very true Eastside. With that mix of mild moisture laden air and sudden polar air, i would imagine somewhere in NW Europe will recieve very large snow falls in the next few weeks. I just want dry to be honest. Update coming later today folks from Piers.
On 09 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
The problem with Piers forecast for the UK for January will be the current instability.
The JS has more or less reverted to a "normal" pattern as a westerly, however there is a very unstable pole of cold over N America.
This constant wobbling is driving weather in W Europe & the pressure fronts.
I wouldn't want to put money on any weather forecast at all currently because the sunspot activity is very low & they can't even get the ham-ionosphere/aurora forecast right.
One day they forecast NO aurora, & there's bright ones, another they forecast "storm" conditions & there's zilch.
Add to this there's another big pole of cold built up over N Russia.
You get the idea, predicting conditions even 48hrs ahead are going to be nigh on impossible, when there are such rushes of N African air, followed by atlantic air across UK-France, then polar air from N America.
Eg, Holland, 1day the country is covered in black ice, next day it's warm & pouring with rain!
Here -25C
Crazy!
On 09 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
jan forecast has been pretty well right for me in somerset. Mild bright days, but no fog and some showers so is within confidence parameters. I would have been very frustrated, even cross if I lived in the areas flooded during the past few weeks so yes some people do need explanations as to what has gone wrong and why the actual weather has been very different to forecast in those areas
On 08 Jan 2016, fred wrote:
This must be unprecedented times, the Jan updates still not released. Models are literally 'all at sea'. Any news Piers? Signs lime you say that we are already 'deeper' into LIA circulation than first thought/realised?
On 08 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Stars were amazing last night. Chilly start slight frost with a little ice on bin lids, very foggy but cleared quick, warm porridge then out sorting logs from 8.30 a.m for an hour or two and in that time sky cleared with the sunshine getting through and nice out with a cuppa to warm the hands, max 6 deg. Met.ie now giving a def. cold week ahead cold temps and snow in places, headlines warning of cold spell in the papers.. Sorry to hassle but ditto other subscribers Piers I'm eager for update too, snow tension ;)
On 08 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers has explained Jan to some extent on homepage, but the devil will be in the detail. I think the bbc forecasters are in danger of getting splinters, from sitting on the fence regarding the upcoming cold spell.
On 08 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Around 0˚C at 7.30, we woke up to 5” (12.5cm) of sodden wet snow, which apparently is very localised, none in Aberdeen. Turned out quite sunny in the end, more than a week has passed since we last saw the sun. Thankfully also, the SE wind has disappeared for the time being, it’s been almost still today, max temp 2˚. Frosty and crunchy underfoot tonight, just about -1˚ at 9pm. == PIERS, are you going to reply to Ben (Forres), I think his comment is fair enough; while it was relatively mild in the first 7 days of the year it certainly wasn’t dry. That said your percentage of correct predictions is still significantly higher than anyone else’s, as Richard East Mids established.
On 08 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
gerry-i used to trade financial markets. Don't believe their spin about being locked into contracts as a reason for not lowering price [i hear violins]. They employ quants [the brightest maths grads] on secret contracts from the best unis who develop forward programs that anticipate prices 3 to 6 months ahead. Oil has fallen from 160 to 35 but domestic gas has prob dropped 10%. There is no free market its a monopoly with a regulator whose brief is to secure supplies not to get value for the customer. Which is why they get away with it . Usually claiming they need the high prices for 'investment' from money they lend themselves at high interest rates. Its a racket. The lack of competition on gas prices is a sure sign of a rigged market.
On 08 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
A curious irony today:-
The climate perverts published this in the BBC today;-
"The 'Anthropocene' has emerged as a popular scientific term used by scientists, the scientifically engaged public and the media to designate the period of Earth's history during which humans have a decisive influence on the state, dynamics and future of the Earth system. It is widely agreed that the Earth is currently in this state."
Meanwhile in Germany :-
"It's one of the most talked about publications of the year. It's not a new book. And it's not even a well-written book. But Mein Kampf, by Adolf Hitler, which hits German bookshops for the first time in 70 years on Friday, is certainly attracting attention"
no comment needed.
On 08 Jan 2016, Lorraine (sub) York wrote:
I agree with Ben I would like to know what is going wrong with the forecasts December was mainly incorrect for Yorkshire and January so far has been very wet for us not dry as forecast for 1st to 8th Jan and it is now getting very cold.Please can subscribers have an update Piers.
Thank you
On 08 Jan 2016, Ben, Forres, Moray (sub) wrote:
Correction 1st - 8th January 2016, not December! as in my earlier post. Apoligies
On 08 Jan 2016, Isaac wrote:
Any thoughts on the implication of this latest news story regarding METHANE now!? Is the attention going to shift to this as the new gas of horror?
http://www.energylivenews.com/2016/01/04/arctic-winter-methane-emissions-higher-than-expected/
On 08 Jan 2016, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
In defence of the energy companies (BP Shell BG Centirca shareholder) they do buy supplies in advance to hedge against rises in price but by the same token the huge fall in oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia would catch them out. If they have contracted to pay a higher price than the current wholesale price they would not want to reduce prices. The warm weather also has an effect that while it saves on our heating bills it reduces income to the energy companies whostill have to pay transport costs for the grid and these have been inflated by the expenditure on connected the remote windmills. No excuse for raising prices as soon as wholesale goes up though. Frosty this morning after yesterday morning's early rain storms left the footways flooded. Cold but there was some rain on the way into London and a rainbow. Get ready for the warmest year ever lies to be peddled by the usual suspects this month.
On 08 Jan 2016, Ben, Forres, Moray (sub) wrote:
What happened to the WA forecast Dec 1st - 8th for NE Scotland? Winds have been from the EAST, its been pretty raw and of course extreme rainfall and flooding. Normally your forecasts are good at picking out the dangerous/disruptive periods in the month, as you got the storms last month. But it seems the flooding events have not been highlighted this month at all, and perhaps some would argue not well flagged up in December. Looking forward to the updates...It just goes to show how incredibly difficult it is to forecast the weather for the UK however good your track record may be.
On 08 Jan 2016, Roger wrote:
Some cold coming nest week at last in UK, while much of Europe experiences winter. Virtually no snow in London and southeast now for three years, none forecast this time. Seems the only hope for us snow lovers now is to go abroad or up north. This winters is a disaster. Better luck 2016-2017? What has happened to us down south?
On 08 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Very cold, frosty morning here in the Chilterns. It may be 2 degrees but at least the sun is shining!
On 08 Jan 2016, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I am living in a mild bubble here, 5 degrees out at 7 am but eco house retains its comfortable temperature. Was a glorious sunny day yesterday with a couple of sudden showers. Am making sure to keep the house fabric warm, so as it copes well with any sudden cold. Family in aus have been told told to evacuate, bushfires, temperatures of 40 c and lightening. Effects of start of mia being felt all over the world. Am dreading that we might get such high temperatures here. Have already made preps re food, water etc so I don`t have to go out
On 08 Jan 2016, Matt Havicon (Rīgā) wrote:
Eastside- interesting stuff! No wonder you have wide knowledge of Russia/ Eastern Europe. I'm in central Rīgā where it is -20 deg C at 8 am. Colder in the suburbs. Max of -16 deg C forecast, that's 3 deg F! I will continue to follow your comments with interest. If Piers is correct, and I believe he is, the UK will cop some crippling winters in the coming years. I think Cameron and the rest of these deluded politicians need to visit E Europe to see how to cope in such harsh conditions. Here everything continues as normal- schools, airports, roads etc. Btw Piers, did you ever get a reply from Mr Cameron? Matt
On 08 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Some stormy weather for NZ overnight and this morning. More welcome rain for us here. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/75708071/Weather-Rough-day-ahead-thunder-and-heavy-rain-warnings-for-North-Island-upper-South-Island
On 07 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Piers
Any news on update release?
On 07 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Only 2 deg this a.m chilly with cold showers, then dun dun dun.. Snow :D big wet snowflakes & again after a short sunny spell another more brief snowy shower later in the morn. was nice watching and although it melted in contact with the earth I just had to be out in the middle of it!-) 3 deg now at 10.20 pm just started raining again.. Thanks Paddy, will give that link a look too..
On 07 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C all day again, though it felt bitterly cold out in the rain when loading trees. SE’ly gale continued unabated until about 8pm, still raining by then, Aberdeen on high flood alert again. And when I went out at 10pm to look at the thermometer - it was snowing! Soaking wet of course but if it continues all night as MO says we’ll have a real muckfest tomorrow. 0˚ at 10pm.
On 07 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine/ Lillyhammer -15
On 07 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers any idea when this update will be released? Got a fair bit of travelling to do end of next week. Down south and back. I am tempted to cancel based on some of the output on the models (i know they are unreliable) however if they are correct I can see some problems on rail and road. I was hoping for cold sunny days but that might not be the case.
On 07 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
to Matt Havicon..
I travel all the time.
I was in Riga on 27th Dec.The temperature fell the previous eve nr Olzstyn/Augustow PL by 15C in one night, so totally correct about christmas.
I rotate between Ural-SPB-Moscow to Tallinn-Helsinki then on often back down to the French Alps, hence the absolute neccessity of accurate weather forecast be it HOT or COLD, year round.
Currently on the Finnish gulf somewhere on the coast between Tallinn to SPB Russia I'm observing a serious cold snap which is fed by an easterly air stream from north of Arkhangelsk area.
I tend to take guide numbers from Nenets rep Salekhard Хоседахард or Komi, where forecast is minimum temperature will be -41C no later than this weekend.
That means what follows inevitably involves milder temps & serious snowfalls as excess milder sea air picks up & dumps moisture,(maybe as much as 1m).
As you know,days only get longer from now on, so it's r
On 07 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
David Yorkshire....You are quite right, we have seen but ummm say 2 ground frosts down here, I hope we don't get it to cold as I am enjoying the daphne ,the scent is a joy to behold and waft,s around the garden like a maiden in flight, lol.
Well what do you expect from a soft southerner, bright sunshine and a brisk NW wind feels chilly. I sent a picture of the daphne to piers but I recon he binned it, Londoners haven't a clue what a daphne looks like , piers prob thinks it is the woman who lives down the street, "joke piers".
On 07 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Just across the North Sea they are ice skating on the roads in Netherlands. Last time they had that was 1979......http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/01/black-ice-disrupts-northern-roads-code-red-weather-warning-issued-again/
On 07 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The earliest bad winter I can remember was very early 80's probably 1982. I remember being taken to school on a sledge each day for a week. The schools kept open as I recall and life went on. I was too young to remember 78/79 but have heard many accounts. My father lived through 47 and 63 and It seems hard to imagine such a scenario especially cruel in1947 - post war.
After 2010 the council's seem to have learnt there lessons. A run of of pretty much 15 years without bad snowfall caught them off guard
Of course Steve soft southerners will never cope, ground frost would close the roads down your end!!
On 07 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE( Dorset), yes like you I lived through the 1962/3 winter and of course the joys of the 1978/9 one and the record cold of 1982 ( -27C). and I think we coped with these better than the 2009/10/11 winters. In the latter period I went without running water for 10 weeks in total because the new water supply was only buried to half the regulation depth. After a hard fight, our campaign got these reburied to the regulation depth of 80cm. The frost actually penetrated to 122cm, but the politicians and Scottish Water could or would not see the folly of this. In Tromso, where the record cold is 9 degrees warmer than our record cold they bury their pipes at 150cm. Norwegian sheep housing units are probably better insulated and ventilated than much of the working class housing in our area.
We are much less prepared now than we were, with toytown trains, few snowploughs and fewer experienced operators. A cold spell like 1982 would grind us to a halt. 2010 is there to remind us.
On 07 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Yes we would cope ,well the indigenous population would, not to sure if the hordes of middle eastern "refugees"would, I for one have lived through 1963 winter so have an idea of what it,s like.
By the way I was having a josh about us down here in the south, yourkshire people have to be made fun of it,s a north south thing you know. Lol. Wet mild and cloudy here in "barmy" Dorset, I have several crocus out on my lawn, far to early, snowdrops out now.
On 07 Jan 2016, Matt Havicon wrote:
Eastside- Exactly where are you in Eastern Europe? I read your reports with interest. I'm in Rīgā, Latvia and after a crazily mild winter it all changed within a couple of days just after Xmas. We've had a minus 20degC here already and the sea is starting to freeze. A massive turn around! There is no way UK could cope with these temps as their whole infrastructure is not geared up for it. Our walls are over half a metre thick and teams of people are constantly clearing the snow. The main difference here is everybody who is able does their bit to clear paths and people wear proper clothing. Unlike UK where people walk around in Crocks and flip- flops when it's 5degC and then say " it's freezing !" I knew a woman back in England who didn't even own a coat!
On 06 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Eastside - I very much doubt the UK could cope with -32 and snow. Minus 5 and 3 inch if snow is enough to bring this country to a halt at times.
Looked at Ecm charts tonight and even the south would see snow next week if they verified. This would definitely be a massive wild swing in weather and a huge contrast to December. Infact all the models show the same scenario now.
On 06 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 & all day, feeling really raw in the unending strong SE’ly. Dry at first but showers from 11am for the rest of the day, evening dry. Somewhat lighter shade of grey in the morning but the rain soon brought darkness. We have yet again a yellow/amber warning for rain in our area for tomorrow. Happened to watch Mobeeb TV f’cast last night, they’re predicting a N’l flow next week. 18:00 Bracknell map looks like a Beast from the East waiting in the wings. == Maria Ireland, agree with your sentiments: I’d rather give my money to someone swimming against the mainstream on well founded (unfortunately not well funded) and heroic science rather than bray with the herd and get the Unfalsifiable Woo-Woo Pseudoscience for free - see James Corbett’s 5 min video on that theme https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huKY5DzrcLI.
On 06 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Slight frost this morning with mist across the fields and really striking red sky from the sunrise, 2 deg at 8.15 a.m max 7 today. Rain and SE'ly wind making it feel cooler started late afternoon and continuing this eve.
On 06 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Hi,
These are without doubt the coldest days of this winter here.
Baltic weather is some of the coldest I know, because of the mix of v high humidity levels & winds which can do the whole turn of the compass within hours.
You have to be very careful in these conditions.Ill advised handling of metal parts can quickly give mild frostbite to fingers in seconds.
Today was below -20C most of the day, but we are clearly approaching a low of -32C for the next 2-3 days. This is mirrored in St Petersburg/Vologda/Ural. I suggest this is the low peak of the winter.
The cold band extends right down into Ukraine to as far west as Eastern Germany now.
The last 2-3 winters here, were relatively mild affairs with even a snowless rally in Sweden, 1 year, so people have got less used to the "real stuff".
Next week temperatures will rise a little (up approx 10C), but will no doubt be accompanied by a lot more snow to add to the roughly 8-10" around the Finnish gulf area which fell this week.
On 06 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
EASTSIDE - any reports from where you are? I always find them informative.
Some very interesting sypnotics being toyed with for UK and NW Europe from mid January onwards. Joe Bastardi is comparing it to 2010 I believe looking at his twitter feed.
On 06 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. wrote:
David Yorkshire you can keep your forecast as we in Dorset still have shorts and T shirts on, you are always colder than us.
Piers is the man he is not afraid to change his forecast if the sun plays around, overall he is not to far off. Now go play.
Nice sunny day here no wind so good news day.
On 06 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID, can get if for free on GFS. Intriguing proposition, but not subtle enough.
On 06 Jan 2016, Fred wrote:
Piers update/Special Jan review will be very interesting to read. What it will be one will have to wait and see and subscribe, I will be worth it as the massive coronal hole has caused a hemispheric stir somewhat.
Of big interest on other sites and on the global models is a development of Arctic High Pressure / Greenland High Pressure and a prolonged cold blocking spell, a trough over Scandinavia with a deeply cold assault from the North....starting in 6 days time. Will this happen?
On 06 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
RON - looking back at my posts, looks like I will be correct about Jan weather - do you want to purchase my forecast for Feb lol. £10 normally but I will do it you for £15?
On 06 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Ps I would rather support someone who has years of work and experience under their belt for little finance and someone who questions and works out when and why their forecasts may be off kilter on occasions, someone who asks for observations to create a bigger picture of whats really happening, incidentally not just in the U.K or Eire than someone who is constantly funded and can not give even a hint of foresight beyond a week, limits data collection, then all they do is big up their model methods and slight anyone with an alternative view & proven tried and still testing in progress method, on that basis alone without the endless I could list and already been said, I can imagine how frustrating it must be trying to deal with certain antagonistic comments and how and what name do you give that kinda crap that a person like that where it's all about them would like anyway lol!-) I still fink Eknows maybe a good alternative lol! :)
On 05 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold spell being mentioned on the horizon here adding to more chaos esp. for those affected by the flooding, incidentally many here on blogs in Eire expressed just before that nothing cold at all likely, will it be a chilly snap or will it be a precursor to winter throwing another curvy ball.. Anyone seen the article in the Express re NASA and clouds causing warming and amplifying the El Niño, now more time and money no doubt to be spent in adding cloud info into computer models, I thought they all believed Co2 was the only cause of warming lol! Or maybe they've heard everyone mentioning how it's more grey and gloomy than it is not and it's not quite the warming picture they painted years ago and need to create another quick cover note, they would like us to believe they understand all of everything and that it correlates to their original projections. Eknows is a name that comes to mind :-)
On 05 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
RICHARD: yes indeed, don't see what the fuss is about. Wonder if some subtle ' intrigue' is afoot. . Snow down to 1500ft here today. Standard models variable within a short time period and of varying opinion on how long any cooler mid month period will endure.
On 05 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day, not many periods without rain, however light, doesn’t bode well for those who are flooded. Dark again, no brightness at all. Wind constantly out of the SE, less strong than previous days.
On 05 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max 7 feels cooler today a few short sunny spells mostly cloudy, yellow rain warning up on met.ie for tomorrow
On 05 Jan 2016, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// at long last snow in the Alps
On 05 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
christine- when i was reviewing the forcasts period by period and month by month several predictions did not match actual which i posted here and they were never censored. Some were completely opposite getting 0/10. WA leaves the forecast on the archive for all to see if they want for themselves. I've looked thro the comments and can't see where people are being 'attacked'. WA does a forecast which we all can compare to actual. If they don't match its always been ok to bring it up. Thats how improvements to SLAT happens. Unlike MetO who never post any of my points :)
On 05 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
just seen the homepage re Jan updates. I did wonder if any changes would be made. considering the dramatic changes to the north of us. Still looks a 4/5 cold spell next week, it will be a shock to the system that's for sure. I await Piers thoughts with intrigue
On 05 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill wrote:
The point is Piers that I understand what is going on with people who fervently believe in climate change on other sites and media outlets but what I am talking about is this site. When comments are posted about people's experiences of the weather and effects differ from Pier's forecast, people are accused of some kind of agenda. When you accept money for your forecasts and invite comms, your customers do not deserve to be treated badly. It is putting me off buying or visiting this site and that is a shame because I need some balance.
On 05 Jan 2016, tony sub wrote:
well out posting today and saw my 1st full bunch of open daffs and rows of snowdrops seems very early ,never seen this early before shows how mild its been ,hopefully we can get some winter to rebalance nature those who sub will know what to expect
On 05 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
"Physics, University of Oxford"
Oxford always was a second rate university for science subjects.
I've never understood how anyone could not fail to see how Finnish & Russian Uni are more credible.
Should you be suprised that some third rate low grade media company funded by compulsory levies on all TV viewing should be airing dumbed down pseudo science to the masses?
The BBC can't even fund their own engineering any more, never mind provide any form of entertainment(except recycled 20yr old crap at christmas).
It's always been the haunt of real pervs like Savile or Harris.The BBC defended to the hilt, until the evidence became overwhelming.
We'll have to wait a little longer for the overwhelming 20yr evidence of pause/global cooling,or yet another media groupfest like MV Akademik Shokalskiy stuck in the Antarctic.
Maybe a failure of the national grid after a CME/Carrington event would do, or something of this order before the BBC climate perverts gave up & got fired.
On 05 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
scientific terms 2......then we get on to the deliberate falsification of data by ommission, addittion, subtraction, cherry picking and other bias to fit an already made assumption. In this case the correct scientific term would be fraud, liar, cheat, charlatan etc. These might be 'hard words' but they are accurate and correct and it would be a misuse or betrayl of science and cowardice not to use them when there is evidence they have occurred. The chief crime in science is 'bearing false witness'.
On 05 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
scientific terms.....the debate [although they say its settled] is about 'is co2 the cause of ice ages'. Thus they use co2 loaded models tp present predictions that never come true and seem to keep running them until they get a scary one which they then put out in the media.. Their fiction and the basis of their fictions lie in the co2 modelling. So 'co2 modeller' is an accurate description of what they are doing and the limit of their 'science.' Remember most climate science courses do not have enough hard science for them to understand the models which is why they farm them out to the physics labs who might have their own agenda because its a good earner. So most climate scientists are not even modellers but mitigationists for something which there is no proof. An itieration of a co2 model produces a result for which they then find a mitigation. Its a nice closed loop game that pays well.
On 05 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
steve the link for Mr Allen http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/mallen.html.....looks like he's another dice thrower basing his view on probablities. As long as they keep factoring co2 as the main driver of climate into models they will churn out rubbish. He wrote a game called Fate of the World, which is "a PC strategy game that simulates the real social and environmental impact of global climate change over the next 200 years." My experience of dealing with the co2 modelers is that they are the most closed minded of all. Which is odd given their models can't predict anything however its where the money is. He campaigned for more money [£10m] backed up by MetO after Somerset floods to show it was co2 however as we know EA own models showed it was due to lack of dredging. Funnily he admited the models got it wrong http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10310712/Top-climate-scientists-admit-global-warming-forecasts-were-wrong.html
On 05 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Christine - Well said, if you look back at my previous comments certain people will just not allow the word "mild " to be mentioned or have your own thoughts on the winter. It is being implied that I have some kind of hidden agenda.
This is ridiculous considering I have supported piers work by purchasing his forecasts. It is easy to see who I am referring too Christine. Very childish in my opinion. Thanks
On 05 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
A professor Miles Allen was on the today program radio 4 this morningAbout 7.20 am, he was saying that all this weather we are having at the moment is all down to global warming, he said that it is all down to man made emissions and that modelling is getting so much better now,they should be able to forecast 50 years into the future with this so called modelling, he also said cold as well as warm are a direct cause of mmgw, white coat time ,he has not got a clue but talkes a storm pun intended.PS I have not heard of the professor before anyone know where he is from, I could look him up but as they say life is to short.
On 05 Jan 2016, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
CHRISTINE. Fair point but what can we call them? Admitedly words 'Warmons' (you quoted 'Warmists' but that's pretty standard) & 'Warmonic' are copied from others who have got tired of been called 'deniers'. CO2 warmists/warmistas (fair names?) & supporters (i) have nothing scienfific to say in defence of the CO2 story - witness Alan Johnsone MP on the Andrew Neil show, see vid link on home page; (ii) Refuse all debate; (iii) Commit brazen serial fraud - witness Richard EMids 4Jan re CET, Richard Brown EYorks 3Jan re MO & graphs re "They Changed The Facts" WA Home page RHS. What they do, although a religion, is not just 'blind belief' (the way in which non-belivers might descibe religious beleivers) it's deliberate falsification of data to create a false story. Even the Pope, as far as we know, doesnt do that. He has certain beliefs in events described as miracles but priests dont go round making-up 'trick miracles' while CO2 fraudsters do. SUGGESTIONS PLEASE ALL for their name!
On 05 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill wrote:
I have never believed in global warming/climate change or CO2 causing such changes. One of the things I dislike most is how anyone that disagrees with the people that do believe, are called names such as "denier" which I find have religious overtones. It means that belief rather than science seem to dominate the climate change cause. I used to enjoy the comments section of this site because of the science and the intelligent debate. Now Piers and others on this site are using the same tactics as the global warming lot, using terms like "warmist" rather than scientific terms-why?
On 04 Jan 2016, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Out in my garden in the Chilterns today (drizzily, 9 degrees) and I noticed potato plants growing in my compost heap. They are about 5 inches high in flipping January. Blooming amazing!
On 04 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I'm not going to jump the gun because it is a week away but I would say 60% chance winter will arrive from 12th of this month. At least a 4 day cold spell, which hopefully will be drier and we might see the thing in the sky, that Piers uses for his forecasts.
On 04 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, same darkness, wind and rain as yesterday, a bit more E’ly today, rain overnight and all day in the catchment area of the Dee, so the bridge nearest us is closed again, and there is no end in sight. We ourselves have not had that much rain but further inland the fronts have been more or less stationary all day, it’s pretty grim. 3˚ at 9.30pm.
On 04 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Overcast today there was mention of fog for this morning but I actually slept late so didn't see any, max 8 deg 6 now at around 9 pm some drizzly spells this eve. Richard it does seem like that re: weather patterns get stuck, years ago here you could get every type of weather pattern in one day, now it appears more like you say..
On 04 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire ) Beats me, any suggestions yourself. Do you feel the hat fits?
On 04 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
RON - who is the other warmest that synchronises with the the one already mentioned?
Roger no signs of an SSW but you don't have to get one for cold UK. Cold air is close to the UK and it wouldn't take much of a change to get snow. Some could get some of the white stuff on Friday and not just Scotland.
On 04 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
what i notice about the jet is that once its in a pattern it gets stuck there so if its warm and rain it goes on for weeks same with cold and dry, etc.....the thing about the co2 taxes not going back on petrol- does that mean they no longer think co2 is a greater risk to UK than terrorism any more or that we are no longer in immmanent danger of UK sinking beneath the oceans or frying up in a sand desert? lol
On 04 Jan 2016, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
It's Monday and the sun is shining it's mild and we have the threat of showers, so nice to see the sun shining it has been so drab for what seems like ages, the grass needs a cut but it is to wet under foot to bother with. If the jet moves soon then we may get back to chilly but don't hold your breath yet.
On 04 Jan 2016, Roger wrote:
Netweather lates not enthusiastic about any winter to come. No sing of SSW, maybe perhaps in february, but mostly staying the same, perhaps no winter this time. The Amerucan AER also is not too enthusiastic about the UK having any winter, but central and eastern Europe - yes. So, Piers,, is it goodbye this time round to hopes of snow and frost?
On 04 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Temps from CET are for the area covered by CET not the UK and not even upland England as CET is mostly lowland and large urban areas. Old sites for CET were in rural areas which are now urban. Hadley only allow 0.1C for heat island but it should be 3-5C. ...other points... oil price has dropped from $160 to $60 but the domestic gas prices haven't dropped although they were quick to put them up so its a wealth transfer from the many to the few ie offshore monopolist energy companies. Regulator is asleep letting poor freeze to bolster profits. In theory the oil price drop should allow cameron to put the co2 taxes back on petrol but they haven't which seems odd?
On 04 Jan 2016, Ron Greer wrote:
Well said Piers in respect of the apparently synchronised 'warmon' comments made by trolloids in these posts. Says a lot for your commitment to freedom of expression that you let them air their views---with enough rope------
On 03 Jan 2016, Richard Brown from East Yorkshire (non sub) wrote:
Just to confirm the comments from Piers regarding relying on the CET. I spent over 20yrs sending in meteorological data (grass, ground, air temps, rainfall data, wind data, etc) from a met office site to the MO. They routinely adjusted ALL DATA UPWARDS to account for human error (Lol), equipment variability and because they didn't like numbers with .2, .3 etc.
Even worse, if data wasn't sent in, they would add data from the next nearest equivalent site (approx 20 miles away)!! All their once manual sites are now automated, but the damage has been done. The manipulation must have been going on for years, all over the country..... Complete frauds, the lot of them.
On 03 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A sunny blue sky start this morning, nice enough for most of the day. Notice the daffs in the garden have just popped up above ground, as gutted as I am the holidays are nearly at a finish, I'm looking forward to hitting the garden and working off the festive calories when the kids go back to school. Max 9 deg. Cloud moved in a bit later and a little drizzle, mostly cloudy and 6 deg. now at 10 pm We've only had the first month of winter, it will be interesting to see what the next couple of months hold and how the spring will go..
On 03 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, wet, windy and dark all day, thankfully again not over-much rain. Would be mild if it wasn’t for the wind, temps rose to 7˚ by 9.30pm. Still a few forlorn hollyhock flowers.
On 03 Jan 2016, steven. regular subscriber wrote:
Hi piers. I made this point about the cet record once before. The amount of record breaking warm and cold months and seasons since about 1940. This reason must be in part least more accurate and more stations since then. Not to mention fraud. Cet is a good guide but the early record I believe is diary estimates. And I'm not sure how accurate the cet would be even in the early 1800s
On 03 Jan 2016, Piers_Corbyn (follow on twitter) wrote:
DAVE, ALL, Please understand the CET is like all suface data under watch of WMO, UN IPCC, UKMETO fraudulently modified to read 0.5C above reality now. The satelite measurements show this and comparison of latest fraud data sets with past data sets in the past shows it - see home page and what I said on Andrew Neil show. This means CET must be used with care basically only of use if reduced appropriate to linear fraud sliding from probably zero in 1988 to 0.5C now. As far as comparisons with 1659 onwards goes there were some very warm months and winters DURING THE LITTLE ICE AGE approx 1650 to 1715. These are like now exclusively and only explicable by wild swings in The JetStream which shows now and then were similar eras. The CO2 theory has failed utterly to explain this. The statement this is one of the mildest months/winters since that period is vindication of the solar-lunar theory and negation of CO2 warmonic pseudo-science. As for 'warmest ever' now that is pure fraud.
On 03 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
RICHARD - Very true about CET being used too frequently for comparisons. It is a good data set to use for modern times though and although some on here won't like it, if there is no game changer this winter, Asim is correct, in that it could be the mildest winter since CET records began.
I did post a while back that March and April could be colder than December and January (CET wise) this year due to El Nino and jet stream. I only have piers forecast for January, so Im sure some know what to expect after this month.
ASIM - models are very unreliable but I do check the ECM and it seems the best one out of the lot. It picked up the cold for continental Europe well. It is showing a cool down from mid month for UK and alot drier weather too. Let's hope this is correct.
On 03 Jan 2016, Piers_corbyn follow on twitter wrote:
HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL AND THANKS YO ALL FOR QUALITY CONTRIBUTIONS IN YEAR. Please read New year meassage on home page rhs. ALL, Standards must be maintained THIS YEAR. Asim we just let on your comm to see if you will listen. Most of your remarks are trollish word-salads. This latest fails to admit you agreed with some v cold aspects we had predicted (yet to come) when Boris Johnson repeated them with my permission. Now you have made your third or 4th winter forecast after one month. If you & other warmons who pop in sometimes often in strange synchronicity with yourself care to note the brit isles & home waters are but 1/600th of the globe so to equate this with the world is not just warmonic it's moronic, as deranged as the whole Co2 anti-science. If you and trolls one of whom was blocked today read our new year message and related letter to PM you would know EVERYTHING happening now is fully in line with solar-lunar theory and total negation of co2. All winter comms now must note this.
On 03 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Wet and windy again. Had something like 1.5" of rain the last few days. As well as noting that the coronal holes are getting really large now has anyone noticed that the numbered sunspots on the disc on spaceweather are getting larger? I noted that we got to just 2 numbered sunspots and less than 20 spots before a few more appeared from the far side. There seems to be a big blank area on the disc. Booker and North have sound pieces on flooding. Points to note. There is dredging that alters the river course and there is silt clearance. Silt can be spread on the land dredging can't. Booker notes that Philip Walling in Cumbria says that the Derwent riverbed has lifted by 6 feet. The EU is not wholly to blame with its directive but it allows confusion and uncertainty to reign and as North correctly states, the EU adds nothing to the situation. Owen Paterson had a plan in place within 24hrs of visting Somerset - Truss is just totally clueless.
On 03 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
asim- of the mildest winter in the UK......Nope. Don't confuse recorded temps of CET with temps in uk. c02 media are misrepresenting a warm winter with warmest ever. We are in an interglacial warming period so it can get a lot warmer and be normal. The geologists still make true charts uninfected by hockey stick adjustments https://kaiserscience.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/minor-ice-ages-during-past-450000-years.gif
On 03 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
More rain today 2.1.16 max temp 8 deg dropped to 4 this evening felt a bit parky then next time I went out a bit milder, wind picked up 5 deg and started raining again now at 3.25 a.m
On 03 Jan 2016, Lorrane wrote:
Lorraine// is it correcting my friend who lives in Riga has just posted that it's clear skies and -20 degrees
On 02 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, wet, cold, dreich all day with a strong SE’ly wind, warming up slightly to 7˚ by 9pm. We’re in the grip of a big LP system that doesn’t look like it want’s to shift much for the time being. We still have an MO amber alert for rain until Monday, thankfully today’s rainfall was heavy only occasionally.
On 02 Jan 2016, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Happy new year all.
Still mild and wet. Getting sick if this now, can't wait for this to change, this must be one of the dullest starts to winter I can remember. Changes starting to take place way up high, in the Northern Hemisphere, so my mid month prediction, of a change to much colder weather is still possible.
On 02 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Wet. Very wet. Nothing but grey skies and rain all day. The ground is saturated and even my water meter chamber is flooded when I looked today. The ground is squelchy and there is some puddling. Wind changed again and Gatwick back to westerly pattern this afternoon having been easterly this morning. The DMI site is showing heavy ice growth in the Arctic so far, greater than any year in the graphic going back to 2006. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php Iceagenow has lots of snow records again and details of the snow in Istanbul. Roof collapses in New Mexico due to the weight of the snow. Perhaps the architect thought that they would never know what snow was when designing the roof. Roof collapse seems to occur regularly in heavy snow. Common theme of cost saving?
On 02 Jan 2016, Asim wrote:
In Terms of model readings, I have to say I'm not a big fan, as the models can be all over the show. However what I will say is that so far the Beijing climate centre and the cfs v2 model are plausible for this winter, as I remember them predicting a very mild winter 2015/2016.
On 02 Jan 2016, Asim wrote:
Hi Guys happy new year! Right just want to say to cold lovers out there including myself, January 2016 will defo follow December. February 2016 is looking at the same I'm afraid to say. If this comes off and so far I've been spot on then this will probably break some record of the mildest winter in the UK. Watch this space we shall see. I really hope wrong
On 02 Jan 2016, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Happy New Year to all. Now, are you keeping tabs on the sun and it's coronal holio's? Hmm? Because as the months go by those behemoths are getting bigger and bigger. The latest one albeit spoiled by a little splurge of activity in the equatorial region, covers about 1/3rd of the solar disc. ...... Lucky as we have been, this whole region is a mud bath, and it just won't stop raining, but thinking back to the last cooling period, back in the 60s and 70s, it used to rain hard for days on end. That's something I haven't seen for decades. But we are starting to see more persistent rain instead of showers. Maybe, instead of building defenses at strategic points, perhaps dredging the rivers to increase their capacity might be a better solution?? Bursting their banks seems to be a recurring term in news articles.. Same with road drains. When they are neglected and fill with dirt, capacity drops and heavy rainfall pushes up through the road surface doing many thousands of £ worth of damage.
On 02 Jan 2016, east side wrote:
Completely correct.
This morning it was -17C.
I went for my first and last 2016 swim in the sea yesterday. (at least for winter).
The sea is now at -0.3C, because the saline concentration is low here, the air temp was -10C.
In ST Petersburg, the Neva, the little canals and estuary will already be a mass of ice, because there's no salt.
Yesterday the surface of the sea was a soup of ice, but so full of ice blocks that I came back out with a cut in a finger.
The sea is now freezing up, and the snow starts tomorrow.
A north wind brings only cold and little snow.
When the JS returns to more normal westerly, pushing wind from the south, that's when the blizzards start,- (about 10-14days time).
"as it comes down over eastern Europe it is bringing cold down. If we were on the down side we would be freezing"
On 02 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More rough weather for NZ today https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/no-let-up-as-foul-new-year-weather-moves-south. We've had wonderful rain here. No wind just straight down penetrating rain. Not quite a drought breaker but it will make a big difference.
On 01 Jan 2016, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, clear start with ice on water butts and on puddles, soon clouding over and locking in the cold for a while in the SW’ly breeze, though the temperature slowly began to rise and ended up at 5˚ by 9pm with by then a gusty S’ly wind, probably the harbinger of what is to come over the next 3 days: we have an amber rain warning from tomorrow to Monday.
On 01 Jan 2016, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Frosty out last night & early hours of New Year nice & cold :) very starry so a nice seasonal end to the old year, woke late to wind and rain which increased a little by this eve. This lil island is getting another good soaking everywhere with rain alert up for some counties. Top temp 8 deg. feeling half that temp with SE'ly wind. Getting cabin fever with all this rain,
( feel a bit seasick too ;-) may just have to go for a run ( or swim lol !) soon whatever the weather.. Here's to more weather watching and Happy New Year to ye all..
On 01 Jan 2016, istvan ilyes wrote:
None Sub. Crawley West Sussex
frost this morning. cold all day now wet and windy. I find it hard to accept that there may be any change in our current weather. there is at the moment a east wind, since the aircraft departing LGW, are on a easterly heading.i would say that once the old year is out, and there has been a mild spell, then this mild type of weather will be it until our spring. all to the advantage of the members of the PC. brigade and the Global warmisters.
On 01 Jan 2016, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Tony - the answer is the jetstream making big north-south meanders so it is carrying warm air up from Africa to the pole but as it comes down over eastern Europe it is bringing cold down. If we were on the down side we would be freezing. If the air mass to the east moves to the west we will soon see the end of the warmth. After dark the rain came and with a strong wind was quite a squall. Cleared overnight again with frost this morning. Melted by 11am with grey skies for our annual New Year village walk. Just spitting on return home at 1400. Now raining. Gatwick running west to east today. Light wind but cooler than of late. Hot food and drink very welcoming after our walk. Ron - the legacy media want sensation and so rare warmth gives them a headline. We know why it has happened and that it is just a temporary thing called weather. The media ignore all the huge snowfalls as environmental correspondents are green lefties so on the warmist message.
On 01 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
ice layer on the buckets of water outside today.
On 01 Jan 2016, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
tony- the logic doesn't follow. Wild swings in jet stream will mean temeprature differences. Wild swings in jet stream are NOT predicted by co2 theory. Only WA has predicted that. The artic has recently had record cold upper air temeperatures but the co2 media don't report it. Nor do they report the cold from the artic displaced over russia and the huge snow in Turkey right now extending into middle east. In an interglacial warming period temps can go up by 4c with no ice at pole and still be in normal ranges. The warmists decontextualise what is happening from ice age cycles and use cherry picked 30 year averages. Also temp records only really start in 1870s and some say none were accurate till 1970s so all this 'warmist on record' is a jedi mind trick as it suggests its the 'warmest ever' which is rubbish. It was warmer in the medieval period and in roman and bronze ages. MetO etc will use CET for the 'warmest ever' which has been discredited imo and is not a measure for the UK.
On 01 Jan 2016, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Hi everyone a happy New Year to you, hope it starts off better than 2015 finished although not so sure with yet to be named storm Gertrude due to hit us next Thursday. Rainfall for 2015 was 1547mm or 30.91 inches with 38% 593mm falling in last 2 months. Our average here is about 45inches or about 1150 mm , still much better than 2014 when we had 72.7 inches.
I am afraid to say that the December forecast was the least accurate of the year at about 20/30% correct following 3 months of about 85% correct.
Piers please let us know if you get a response from the PM about the invitation that you sent him. Anyway here is hoping for an interesting year in our weather, could be the year that we get massive cooling due upcoming La-Nina and the combination of the cold Atlantic blob.
On 01 Jan 2016, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Storm currently hitting the north of the North Island NZ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11568080. Due to move south with rain forecast for our very dry region for tomorrow. Hope we get some decent rain but not damaging stormy weather.
On 01 Jan 2016, Lorraine marson wrote:
Happy New Year Piers and commenters and may 2016 be a year of peace -love-health and happiness and may the weather be with you wherever you are
On 31 Dec 2015, tony sub wrote:
can any of the experts explain this heat the north pole parts of usa and parts of europe are experiencing .........dec forecast about 25% accurate for my area and all this warmth around is certainly helping the warmist brigade
On 31 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, colder feel, light S’ly breeze, mostly cloudy but with a few intervals of low winter sunshine, max temp 3˚. The breeze turned into the W by evening and picked up a little under a clearing sky, 2˚ by 9pm. Happy New Year All, and may the warmists totter under their own weight :-)
On 31 Dec 2015, Ben Derova wrote:
What a great 12 months of weather watching, Piers; Happy New Year to all at WeatherAction!
Ben
On 31 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A little sunshine at times again today between cold showers, (forgot we got a glimmer of sun and blue sky yday for a short burst) blue sky with clouds here n there this aft. cold max 5 deg. light W'ly breeze. Recent storm F recorded approx around 66 knots 2 counties below in the South, 72 knots SW and between 58 - 68 knots in the West 52-57 in the East & 60-68 North..
On 31 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY( Surrey) Right with you on all of that, but note how no-one on our side is taking on the Storm Frank scenario of North Pole and Svalbard high temperatures with rain in mid winter. The warmoids are having a field day. Though cooler up here with a slight frost and some snowflakes in the wind, it feels more like March than December
On 31 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
So did the following get a knight hood, Jimmy Savile,Cyril Smith, the list is not a good one, it is a nice sunny at times day here, wonderful.
On 31 Dec 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Good science does indeed progress by discussion, testing of theories against observation and challenging of the consensus. 'Climate Science' however does none of these as it involves ad hominem attacks, getting people fired from their jobs, avoiding any discussion, hiding data to avoid review, getting your mates to 'peer' review and just making stuff up. And to round it all off, the idiot ex-mp and ex-climate change & reduction of energy secretary Davey has received a knighthood! I am definitely going to refuse mine now. Rain came after dark yesterday and hammered away for a while. Another clear spell arrived during the night to provide blue sky this morning, but by noon the cloud has rolled across from the SW on a blustery wind. There are some breaks but a light rain shower would not be a surprise. Iceagenow page covered in snow records - must be the warming causing all that cold.
On 31 Dec 2015, Ian (considering subscribing) wrote:
Steve D,
Agree and; given the field that Jim Wild is in (Professor of Space Physics at Lancaster University) this would seem to be an excellent opportunity for Piers to enter into a good going debate - he appears to be contactable via: http://theconversation.com/profiles/jim-wild-159744). Good science is driven by open discussions and debate and only in such a way can we hope to build wider belief and confidence in Piers work and conclusions. HNY to all at/on Weather Action.
On 31 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
EAST SIDE: even the risible GFS is indicating a northerly blast over the UK around the 11th/12th, but, not a long lasting one. Otherwise mild weather persisting over the UK despite nearness of cold air on the Continent and Fennoscandia. But as we know, they can be ever so wrong. In the meantime cooler air has reached us here in Highland Perthshire with a welcome frost and a few flakes of snow after the flooding events of recent days.
On 31 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
(Relates to 30.12., power cut) 9˚C at 7.30, already a S’ly gale blowing overnight and strengthening through the morning with rain off and on until midday, after which it calmed down somewhat and dried up and the temps slowly dropped, down to 2˚ by 9.30pm and to complete calm. The Low now out of the way had gone down to 933 hPa by evening, the lowest I remember seeing. On our hill we didn’t notice the drama unfolding in the valley: the last time the Dee was at this level was apparently in 1928, many properties flooded & also the villages of Breamar, Ballater & Aboyne, bridges closed. Anyway, Piers had nailed this down on 15th Nov!
On 31 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Happy New Year to Piers and everyone on this ground-breaking website! While I remember, a friend of mine at work sent me this link from a LIA-denier. You've got your work cut out for you Piers with the CO2 bible-bashers - http://earthsky.org/earth/were-not-heading-into-mini-ice-age
On 31 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Gerry Surrey, yes Paterson would fitt in quite well with UKIP, piers have you noticed that UKIP are the only political party that agree with you on the global warming scam.
We had a particularly heavy storm last night about 2am ish it woke me up with rain lashing on the windows and a particularly heavy wind squall, blew the neighbors fence down up the road,I noticed this morning as I drove by at 5.20 this morning. 10c and clearing sky. That's global warming for ya. By the way I have hellebores out in flower they usually flower in early March. Snow drops are starting into flower in dries and drabs. I blame it all on UKIP of course.
On 31 Dec 2015, Not supplied wrote:
Gerry Surrey, yes Paterson would fitt in quite well with UKIP, piers have you noticed that UKIP are the only political party that agree with you on the global warming scam.
We had a particularly heavy storm last night about 2am ish it woke me up with rain lashing on the windows and a particularly heavy wind squall, blew the neighbors fence down up the road,I noticed this morning as I drove by at 5.20 this morning. 10c and clearing sky. That's global warming for ya.
On 31 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
An area of intense cold arrives in Baltic - Scandinavia reaching into Germany - Poland - Ukraine.
Temps forecast for next week 05-06 Jan down to -25C.
Sea ice formation.
Beware of the "FLIP"
Jetstream about to revert to "normal" pattern roughly a week later, giving a strong northerly airstream and a strong snow episode over some parts of UK, and particularly continental Europe 10-13 Jan.
People are not prepared for this change in weather after the warmth & rain of December.
On 30 Dec 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Richard Pinder - the man to return the Tories to being a conservative party is quite clear - Owen Paterson. He fully understood the Somerset floods and set about sorting them out. And because he was competent, Call Me Dave sacked him probably because his wife Soppy Sam got a call from her Greenpeace chums. He is also fully conversant with the EU and supports us leaving. Sorry, Steve, but banging on about immigration won't win the referendum because we need to keep freedom of movement to remain in the single market. It may also be a dead issue come October 2017 anyway and the drawback of starting a campaign for a referendum the date of which has not been set. Granted UKIP forced Call Me Dave into a referendum but then he hoped not to win the election and not to have to keep his election promises. Peter Hitchen's suggestion and quite plausible the he wanted to keep the Liberal coalition in power.
On 30 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland Sub ) wrote:
13,000 homes were without power last night down to 7,500 this morn. New yellow wind warning for some counties tomorrow, just looked at the damage this storm caused in topping up flooding, it's unreal the scale of it and nearby too. Apartments in Dublin lost a roof, 7 feet high water in Mallow, Galway hit hardest again, Kilkenny floods too, hoping there will be some respite for the people affected by the storms, but it has just started to rain again..
On 30 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
warmists now making a big issue of 'Frank' bringing plus zero temperatures and rain to the North Pole and Svalbard and of it being the beginning of the end for 'deniers'. GFS showing the severe cold of Fennoscandia staying just NE of Scotland with no real cold weather reaching B&I until mid month.
On 30 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
That was a really noisey roaring windy ole night last night, heaps of rain, quite intense for a time in the evening, incredibly gusty surprised we didn't lose power, many suffered more power outages and more unwanted flooding. The low pressure gave me a fat headache but had to stay up and watch as the wind tailed off after 1 a.m and by 3 a.m outside all was calmer. Woke up at 8.15 a.m to more wind and rain quite gusty again for a time, all quiet again by midday. Cold tonight 5 deg. at 8 pm
On 30 Dec 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Oh well done Piers storm Frank (named by the MetO) has come bang on cue to Piers forcast.Why dont they listen to him for gods sake instead of the BBC bladdering on about man made climate change being responsible for the storm.Save lives and buy Piers forecasts NOW!!! .The IPCC Green Party Friend of the earth e.t.c can forecast nothing.The only answer they have is build some bird splatting political prayer wheels offshore and just prey the weather gets better tommorow.Wet and Windy in South as well
On 30 Dec 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
"On 30 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
If i remember right WA nailed the Somerset floods weeks ahead when Meto couldn't predict more than 12hrs ahead"
*******************************
... and if I remember right Piers was the only one to mention the Jet stream in his forecasts in the past, now its all over the weather media these days.
On 30 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The flooding is caused by man building most towns and cities next to rivers and subsequently getting rid if the natural flood plains. This goes back hundreds if years and was done for valid reasons at the time. All we do now is try and contain water in our river systems and they just cannot cope. It is not this governments fault or the last ones.
Yes more can be done but if you get rain concentrated mainly on one area of the UK, for over a month, no amount of money will stop flooding.
On 30 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Richard Pinder....
I heard a guy explaining what the greens and global weirdoes do at every opportunity and that is "Virtual Signalling" in other words saying look at me I am green and always right, on everything, well 97% of the time if you believe the MSM. Sorry that was the weird scientists 97 out of 10 thousand, now that makes sence lol.
PS. Roger Helmer is so on the button with energy amongst other things he stands for and is an excellent MEP.
On 30 Dec 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
Roger Helmer has the grip on the UKIP Climate Change policy. Piers needs to tell his brother to promote Graham Stringer if Labour are to return to sanity. But the weird thing is that although right-wing political parties in all other counties are more sane on Climate Science than the Tories. In this country, there is no obvious Tory who could return the party to sanity. But a start would be to get rid of that international embarrassment and upper class twit, Cameron.
On 30 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Gerry.....Blue labour that got to be a first, UKIP have a handle on the greens, global warming ,energy, climate change, you name it they have someone who can give a good level headed apinion on it, Nigel forage is the figure head and leader who has done excellent work on the EU And achieved a referendum on the same, head in the sand time will not do, blue labour or not,
UKIP have been spot on from the migrants to the EU even with wilful lies from the MSM and the blue Labour Party, stormy with rain but mild a bit like my opinions.
On 30 Dec 2015, John K wrote:
The annual Sydney-Hobart yacht race departed Sydney Harbour on Boxing Day and ran into a southerly gale that night and about 30 boats were forced to retire. I followed the race on the 'net as a relative is crewing a British Clipper Series yacht (UNICEF) around the world.Watching the wind patterns intensify with the R5 period over at earth.nullschool.net was interesting to watch.
I'd love to know exactly how the solar/lunar magnetics change the weather patterns so much.
On 30 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
The flooding is caused by EU Directive that restricts dredging, classing the dredged material as hazardous waste if landowners do clear their watercourses, land management changes, poor watercourse management, building on flood plains and Environment Agency incompetence. The idiots in Blue Labour might like to consider that GDP will take a hit which will result in less taxes so cutting money for flood defences looks like a false economy. Even more so with the waste of money that is overseas aid which only dim luvvies such as Michael Sheen et al think is a good idea. Steve - re UKIP, sadly for a party that should be experts on the EU they are woeful and if they get involved in our referendum will help us lose. They should have been a major force by now but the cult of Farage holds them back. With a good knowledgeable leader they could do well but sadly having resigned Farage came back. The way is open for a right wing party to counter Red/New/Blue Labour.
On 30 Dec 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Richard
As long as 'climate change' is a political football, the chances of meaningful, suitable action is minimal.
The left claims the right are all about shooting rights for 'farmers' causing flooding in northern cities.
The right claims EU Directives on dredging are to blame.
The reality is that you have to examine each region individually and evaluate the triggers differently.
Somerset, Devon & Cornwall. The Thames Valley. The Severn. The Welsh Valleys. Snowdonia. The Yorkshire drainage basin. The Western Pennines and Cumbria. Southern Scotland.
They are all different. But politicians need a simple strap line to bleat on TV.
On 30 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
If i remember right WA nailed the Somerset floods weeks ahead when Meto couldn't predict more than 12hrs ahead
On 30 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
The main voices behind those opposed to dredging and pumps on our rivers is the RSPB and Friends of the Earth [among others]. As was stated at the time of the Somserset floods [who now have no new money to dredge] problems began when 'Baroness Young of Old Scone, a Labour peeress, became the EA agency’s new chief executive. Dredging virtually ceased altogether. The rivers began dangerously to silt up. The Baroness, who had previously run the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and Natural England, talked obsessively about the need to promote the interests of wildlife. She was famously heard to say that she wanted to see ‘a limpet mine put on every pumping station’... so we see special interest groups have needlessly caused misery for thousands and cost the country billions. Despiute EA own models showing dredging works we are being told the same lies as they were at somserset by the same interest groups that it doesn't and that co2 is the cause.
On 30 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Eastside - yes the high pressure block is too far East to affect the UK and France in terms of cold weather .The problem with that is, the UK could see alot if rain in the next week or so, which is not what we need right now.
I have posted several times that the change to cold for the UK would come mid January and with warm air currently being pumped towards the poles, surely this will aid in bringing a change the set up? In theory this should aid in disrupting the jet stream over the pole and allow high pressure to set up, to the north or West of Britain.
Piers forecast is bang on for current period and he looks like he will nail the first week of January to me!!
On 30 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
Winter is here.
Now sitting at -11C,- a big freeze starts on 2nd-3rd January, where night time temps drops through the floor.
Our freeze caused by a pole of cold over N Ural, Russia, is already right across Eastern Europe, & has spread into Germany, Italy & Eastern France.
This is not expected to affect UK/France relative warmth-still no serious snow for W Europe under JS south.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/images/charts/en/contour/20151230/euro/euro/1451418603/vtx.gif
Now also on high Aurora watch as a G2 storm is expected tonight with kp7 following an earth directed CME in the last 48hrs.
Big Aurora was always associated in the ancient past with worse weather.It may well be most of the classic weather forecasts are wrong.(?)
A waning moon, & perfectly clear skies could mean this is the "event of the year", after this year's super moons+the autumn conjunctions of mars, Jupiter etc & the September lunar eclipse.
Time to get the warm clothes on and stand to watch!
On 30 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
7.20 am, I wore irritating ear plugs last night, as very sensitive to gusty wind noises in the night. Worked a treat as had a good nights sleep but can`t wear them often. Temps: on field post is 13, near house is 20 at lower end and 13 under top overhang. Pressures: in field 1013, near house is 1000. House is 3m below field with some trees. Max wind gust only 23 on field post, vantage vue. Pity help those getting much higher speeds as my gusts are very loud and bring anxiety with them. I have taken advantage of warmist govs and get rhi and fit payments, about £1800 pa. Only 200 kg of pellets (£35) used this autumn/winter as highly insulated. Minor compared to others getting 8+ £k pa. Scandalalous
On 29 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, stiff S’ly wind getting stronger during the morning and taking the temp down to 6˚, quite sunny from time to time but clouding over in the afternoon, milder again by 9pm at 7˚. I’ve been watching that Atlantic Low going down from 961hPa at 6am to 948 at 12pm to 938 at 6pm, haven seen such an intensive one for quite a while - but then, we are now in an R5 period which lasts 4 days. Unsurprisingly, we have a yellow wind and rain warning from the MO for tomorrow, a bit further south the rain warning is orange. While Piers’ 30d forecast has been knocked somewhat off course on a couple of occasions this month, he clearly warned of rain and severe gales at the end of the month, i.e. now; so I fixed the extra knee braces into our big tunnel, which helps with both wind and snow. The big question is, how will the Scandinavian High behave over the next wee while, sitting at 1047 tonight?
On 29 Dec 2015, James Dent wrote:
For Russ
You are correct. Sometime in the mid 1990s, I remember a late-morning temperature in mid january that touched 19degC. This was in south Cambridgeshire. As January temperatures are usually less that those of December, 14-15 deg this month is peanuts.
On 29 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the current mantra by activists and the EA is that dredging would make no difference to the current flooding. Funny how that was not the outcome they said after dredging Somerset..."The Environment Agency said it ran a computer model of the unprecedented rainfall and river flows of the winter of 2013 and 2014 to recreate the conditions on the Levels that saw villages submerged and a huge "inland sea" created for more than two months. Astonishingly, the model discovered that if the dredging work done since the floods had been done before the rain started, and temporary pumps brought in earlier at the height of the disaster, then almost all the homes flooded in the worst-hit areas would have probably escaped intact."
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Better-pumps-dredging-stop-floods/story-27574691-detail/story.html#ixzz3vkCcJlJZ
dredging-stop-floods/story-27574691-detail/story.html ..plent other reports how dredging in somerset reduced flooding
On 29 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
funny how uk flooding is co2 climate change and nothing to do with the uk building 10k houses a year on floodplains. Of course there is more flooding as more houses are built on floodplains. Also as someone said the rivers are 'not allowed' to be dredged when they used to be every 3 years mainly because they were told co2 climate change would result in droughts so no need to dredge.
On 29 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A lull and calm eerily quiet night, cool with temp of 4/5 deg. a light breeze at 1 a.m Calm b4 the storm n all that, quiet again this am, the wind increasing since around lunch and just starting to get some showers with it now at 2.30 pm 8 deg. some gusts already rattling the roof, very dark sky, gonna be a bumpy ride, thinking of those on the west coast who are going to feel it the worst.
On 29 Dec 2015, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
It's alright Mr Camerameron spouting off about unprecedented warmth and rainfall but I remember a winter when the temperature hit 20 point summat degrees C, I believe, on or around the 16 of January which is the coldest day of the year. So how warm does that make 13 or 14C in December? Not very warm at all and more like absolutely normal?? That January temp was many years ago so someone will maybe have spotted that spike in the data they study and give me a conformation of the year.
On 29 Dec 2015, James Dent wrote:
On Boxing Day, my wife and I took a short drive in the countryside north of Ipswich. In one field we saw a large flock of Fieldfares: not unusual for late December, but perhaps a little surprising given the mild conditions. Yesterday, when trawling through various meteorological sources on the internet, I noticed that the forecast charts showed that the Scandinavian high pressure will be building over the next few days, and already all of Norway, Sweden and Finland are experiencing sub-zero day time temperatures. Obviously the Fieldfares were already responding to these developing conditions and had set out for the larder of berries on our hedgerows.
They did this without need of sophisticated weather forecasts produced by eye-wateringly expensive computer models. I see that by New Year’s Eve the temperatures in East Anglia will be more typical of winter, and by New Year’s Day, our winds will have an easterly component. Perhaps there is a message here., that far greater powers
On 29 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
The only political party that I know of that have a handle on global warming, the EUSSR and the overall bull that is the EA is UKIP, I have to admit they are spot on if you look at there manifesto, still so very mild again, I am getting used to this weather great for the outside.
On 29 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
CORRECT.
In one night alone last weekend the temperature in northern Poland fell by nearly 15C.
The whole of the Baltic States, & Scandinavia dropped into freezing weather a few days ago.
The result I observed travelling was astonishingly high atmospheric pollution in the cities of northern Poland (coal burning), & Baltic States (wood burning).
In some of these towns the level of atmospheric pollution was so high it was much worse than in China.
Dense eye stinging wood smoke, made by bringing 1000s of heating systems up suddenly, blanketed town centres over the entire area as balmy temperatures of Nov-Dec were replaced by temperatures as low as -8 to -12C.
Sea temperatures in the gulf of Finland within days are showing under 2C consistent with sea ice.
"Just decided to check the weather charts and Europe looks like it will go into the freezer 1st week of January. Probably 40% chance this very cold air will back West into UK at the minute. Winter could be on its way!!! "
On 28 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
The Blue Labour party are blaming the floods on climate change too which just goes to show how little difference there is between the parties. If you listed statements from each and then mixed them up very few people could pick out which was which. Competent politicians could fit in a room just a bit bigger than the one the LibDems need for all their MPs. The EU Directive against dredging was mentioned again. Ignore the current charade by the legacy media as the referendum will be October 2017. Vote leave and we can do what we like to our watercourses. The dredgings can be spread on the fields again and not be classified as hazardous waste. The cloud built up as expected and the day ended overcast and grey. No rain though, and less wind than of late. Sky News showed footage of snow in Mexico and mentioned bad weather across the US including blizzards but showed only tornado damage.
On 28 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day right up to 9pm, thick fog all morning, strong S’ly wind, no rain though. Fog lifted by midday but still grey & overcast, in fact a very dark day, the absolute opposite of yesterday.
On 28 Dec 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//watching all these floods and noticing 200 year old houses.being affected so 200 years ago they built in a no flood safe area- just a question. Family in Perth and Adelaide very hot there, I swam in the sea yesterday in Guernsey and stayed in about 15 mins normally I would be in and straight out around this time but the air temp is warm so this enables one to do this and I haven't known this before. So my question is this, in the historical data of solar activity is the sun at such an active peak that we are witnessing massive active activity and it is causing this unseasonal westher. But then again is it only in the last few year decades we can photograph and mathematically monitor solar flares? So we are witnessing massive changes in our Sun.
On 28 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Just decided to check the weather charts and Europe looks like it will go into the freezer 1st week of January. Probably 40% chance this very cold air will back West into UK at the minute. Winter could be on its way!!!
On 28 Dec 2015, Richard Brown from East Yorkshire (non sub) wrote:
Merry Christmas one and all!! Amazing evidence of global warming in USA at the moment with all that snow in Texas and New Mexico.....
On 28 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
yes going to be very bad in north for a few days. This one is spot on and looks very serious. Pity help them, terrifying time ahead
On 28 Dec 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
""On 28 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Have we no sensible political leaders left, the Labour Party were blaming this flooding on global warming and climate change, are they mad,.........""
Its Labour Party Policy ... whether its right or wrong .. its written down "blind policy" which even the leader has to follow.
(Because lots of voters still believe, so tell them want they want to here)
That's the stupidity of politics folks.
On 28 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Spot on forecast Piers! Rain and wind started to pick up again around midday max 11 deg. Feeling cooler, weather eased a bit then another burst now at 3.15 pm Yellow warning today, Orange warning for coastal counties and Yellow for here in Laois issued 12-12 tomorrow, satellite signal playing up, I think we are in for a messy couple of days, rain very heavy and noisey right now at 15.21 pm
On 28 Dec 2015, Sonja (30d sub) wrote:
Just took advantage of the amazing xmas offer and subscribed for 12 mths. Weather here in S Yorkshire (200m elev) mild today (11c), high cloud and light breeze. Yesterday saw 2 Azalea bushes in full flower!! Interesting weather times indeed!
On 28 Dec 2015, Mike (45 day subs) wrote:
Get ready for the massive storm mid week up North. R5 period coming up between now and New Year. Best batten down the hatches and switch the pumps on! Piers forecast is spot on! Well done and hope you get invited along to join the Government's and Environment Agency's flood committee.
On 28 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Have we no sensible political leaders left, the Labour Party were blaming this flooding on global warming and climate change, are they mad, the rivers have become blocked by sludge as they cannot be dredged by the brain dead EUSSR directive of 2000, it may not have eliminated the flooding but it sure as hell would have helped if the rivers were cleaned on a regular basis. A clear sky this morning and 50c no wind calm.red sky this morning Shepards set fire to his hut again " joke" mild yesterday no coat on just a fleece, Baaa.
On 28 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Very slight grass frost in places clearing quickly today 27th, temp increased from 4 deg at 8 a.m to max 12 feeling cooler with the SE'ly Wind that has increased during this eve. can hear the wind picking up even more now just after midnight.
On 27 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, frost on car roof and in sheltered spots, clear moonlit early morning, sunny all day with barely a breeze. The day is 42 seconds longer for our location according to http://www.timeanddate.com. Temp stayed at 1˚ all day but in the evening it started to warm up, 5˚ by 10pm. We have had snow further north, in Keith for instance, according to a friend and today I also saw it on Bennachie, a local pointed landmark hill 518m high to the north of us.
On 27 Dec 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Went fishing today lovely and mild a bit of drizzle early on in bucks but cleared not even in thermals.just seen the BBC MetO forecast and seen the storm and YES Piers forecasted that way back prob a MetO named storm hope they name it Piers in reccognition that Piers predicted it before October
On 27 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Merry Chistmas all. I would not say looking at the forecast, it was obvious there was going to be flooding in the North. Overall the month was expected to have average or below precipitation.
I am sick of rain now but cannot see a pattern change anytime soon. Not till the middle of Jan anyway.
On 27 Dec 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR GREAT COMMENTS! MARIA, STEVE There is mention of Floods and wind damage in ~the last period of Dec ~28-31st Dec. Also the precip and R4 + R3 Solar factors in the previous two weather periods ON TOP OF already very wet ground would suggest more floods as a fair conclusion. The patterns are now getting better - less shifted west than they were. Thanks Piers
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