On 28 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
You can never tire of watching windmills crash and burn. Following the logic that if you repeat a lie often enough people will come to believe it, I am seeing the lie being peddled that wind power will soon be cheaper than coal or gas. The key point is the little bit about when all costs are taken into account. What this means is a phantom 'environmental cost' is added to gas & coal, otherwise of course it is will be much cheaper. What isn't added to wind power, or solar either, is the cost of building back-up generation for when it is not windy, not sunny or too windy. With the rate of coal generation closures and nobody in their right mind wanting to invest in a gas plant, that leaves only the diesel generators left. Grey, windy and often damp has given way to blue skies. It was warm outside last evening but the cloud cleared to bring moonlight and sunny so far but light cloud is building. Gatwick running easterly take off for the first time in weeks.
On 27 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
looks like the forecast precipitation fell as rain rather than snow.
On 27 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
That's nothing you have to see a failure local to us.
It burnt like a firework + it's not a year old!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp3L9IfYGhg
www.windaction.org/posts/43123-wind-turbines-burst-into-flames-estonia
They're noisy- definitely DO NOT meet env requirements for parasitic noise.Blades generate significant random spectra due to edge turbulence.
In higher winds this is v obtrusive.
The joke is, despite massive size the whole farm generates all of 48Mw(!) when all work+there's wind. Narva wind farm cost €60 million...
If you look at cost of installation+maintenance, there's no way in the world they ever pay for themselves in their (estimated & optimistic) lifetime framework.
Joke is, greenies & Brussels moaned about government subsidy of shale oil, but since they started installing wind elect, tarrifs, (the lowest in EU) suddenly doubled!
1355 MW/h made by just 1 shale oil PP
Narva Hydro 3x41.7 MW=640 GWh p/a
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narva_Power_Plants
On 27 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Explain Steve please. I take the forecast and no way would I have taken any warning about NW floods from the forecast. Am I missing something in the wording? I see for NW dry, fog, flurries, more fog. Some snow in the period now but no-where the torrential continuous rain that they have been having. If some snow can be interpreted one way ie more than, it could also be interpreted as less than. Forecast is 75% for then, I suggest that the present weather (27th) is in the 25% margin outside the forecast and as such is anyone`s guess (I am a big fan btw of WA so have no axe to grind)
On 27 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Halo around the moon tonight
On 26 Dec 2015, Ole Jensen wrote:
A 3 year old mega prayer-wheel has collapsed in Sweden:
https://youtu.be/pH65y7Wta3I
On 26 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day, bucketing with rain off & on al day, I must say that I didn’t quite expect that, thinking that the HP to the N of us would stop the rain from moving north, but then, I’m no expert. Sharp SE’ly all day which made it feel even colder in the damp conditions. Terrible floods in NW England while the sales frenzy has started up, couldn’t be a stronger contrast.
On 26 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
Colder today Boxing Day some showers too off n on all day, max 5 deg. 4 now after 9pm bit foggy again..blogs uncertain re next storm here Tues/Wed some had it as possibly severe at first now they say it could miss here or still be an event..
On 26 Dec 2015, Steve wrote:
If people had bought Piers forecast they would have KNOWN the North was going to be flooded around Christmas time and they could have taken action sooner. How can we help people listen?
On 26 Dec 2015, B Smith NE Wales wrote:
Amazing wind contrasts Capel curig gusting 85 mph(1900)
.The Valley, Anglesy showing 12 mphAs I have commented before the stark changes recently either side of a front( Js ?) have been remarkable over very short geographical distances.
On 26 Dec 2015, B Smith NE Wales non sub wrote:
Another wet day in the relatively "dry rain shadow" from the NW Wales mountains! However It has been milder than yesterday ,and windier throughout the day .with periods of wet weather interspersed with exciting drizzly moments. Some of the gfs chart runs show a big storm next Wednesday,please no more rain!
On 26 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
A very mild start to the day 26/12/15 with a stiff wind a blowing, but dry, temp15c. Clouds and a glimpse of sunshine about 10am. Daffodil out and primroses to. Just read Paul homewood,s 2035 year very funny .....but may be not as we have a lot of strange people in the global warming cupboard now, 1685/86 (Winter) One of the warmest winters (by CET) in the series which began in 1659. Up to 2010, rank=5 Value=6.33 (but note that this mean is based on data to nearest half-degree C only); Dec=6.5, Jan=6.5, Feb=6.0 [ Others: 1734 (6.10degC, 1796 (6.20degC), 1834 (6.53degC), 1869 (6.77degC), 1935 (6.13degC), 1975 (6.43degC), 1989 (6.50degC), 1990 (6.23degC & 2007 (6.43degC.] As might be expected with the mildness of the season, it was reported as being also very wet, at least across central and southern England.
On 26 Dec 2015, Steve wrote:
Here's an idea for Dr Piers - People who do not believe the solar output drives our weather will also not ever subscribe to WA forecasts.
Of course nobody should get the benefit of these unless they pay so at present they will never see the connection.
What if WA released a public forecast of just the dates for major R4s and R5s with a simple comment on how they can pep up weather and make seismic activity more likely. In time everyone could check out for themselves the correlation and it should help wake them all up to what really drives our planets ecosystem.
On 26 Dec 2015, stephen parker wrote:
Its incredible to think for us down here in the south east, that winter is in full swing just 200 miles away up the M1. Snow in Scotland and heavy rain and more flooding to come for Northern England, and another storm looks set to batter the North West and Scotland tue/wed.
Will there be a sting in the tail this winter for us southern softies?.For what its worth models are starting to signal a change is about to take place, and a SSW event, who knows?. We have had it so mild down here that even moderate cold will be a shock!
Still plenty of time for a beast from the east or a 62/63 scenario to take hold! , snow down here does make the roads interesting.
On 26 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
Nice moon on Xmas eve and slight frost outside when I looked after last nights comment. Cold rain this a.m Xmas day, temp. Recovering quickly through the day max 12 deg. Lovely mist came in early eve. foggy ( unless it's my bleary eyes lol ) and mild at after midnight.
On 25 Dec 2015, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
GFS now going for a severe storm this week followed by a cold spell, what will the Mobeeb think of this?
On 25 Dec 2015, B Smith NEWales non sub wrote:
Wet start and cold, even wetter mid mornining, windy milder afternoon and evening drizzle. Looks similar to some of the earlier storms pattern.Merry Christmas to all at WA.
On 25 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, clear sky, NW’ly breeze and frosty in sheltered spots, soon clouding over & turning into a grey and cold day, temps going down to 2˚ by 8pm. MO has a yellow warning of rain on for tomorrow, we’ll see whether that’ll come to pass.
On 25 Dec 2015, Lorrane wrote:
Lorraine//Henk I hope you are right. Happy Christmas Piers and commenters 🎉
On 25 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Merry Christmas. A belt of rain passed over yesterday followed by blue sky and a nice sunset. A moonlit night for Santa and then grey and damp today. A fair wind around too. Steve- your records are very interesting given all the warmest ever hysteria. How much of the warmth is purely due to the night time cloud keeping us wrapped in a blanket and so raising the minimum temps. And here we lead back to the UHI issue of raised minimum temps distorting the averages. Don't know what others think but I think the scientific battle is won. The political and PR one is what we now have to win. Tim Ball covers this on WUWT and there are others who write of countering the 'prestige' of the warmists which was why it was important for them to corrupt the learned societies. A possible Christmas present to us - the UNFCCC has recognised Palestine. US law forbids funding of UN bodies that do this as they withdrew funding for UNESCO for the same reason. Will they now do the same?
On 25 Dec 2015, Henk wrote:
Will it turn colder from the first of januari 2016?....for the first time this year more computer Models are predicting a cold start of 2016 with snow and frost.
Merry Christmas
On 24 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, quite a lot of rain overnight, though not as much as further west, which could be deduced from the river Dee running very high this morning. Strong SW’ly wind again, not quite as powerful as yesterday, also turning more into the West as the day wore on. Temps going down all day until reaching 2˚ by 10pm, frost on car roof. Weather map/general situation appears to be nudging closer to Piers’ predictions for the present weather period after having been off further west for a good part of the month, the reasons for which will probably be incorporated in future forecasts. == Merry Christmas All!
On 24 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
Remained windy and rainy out last night and went into the early wee hours, still a lil blustery this morning and today was cold with cold and almost at times sleety showers, struggled to reach 5 deg. 2 now feeling colder at 7.15 pm.. 6000 homes were at first without power last night with 1000 still without power this morn. Wind speed almost tipped a red warning for the orange affected areas but reduced a little within that hour.
Merry Christmas to all at on Weather Action, have a good one :-)
On 24 Dec 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Butterflies have been seen, my dafs are up, so many flowers that normally have long gone are going strong. Bar the frosts in late Nov my nasturtiums would still be alive (have had them until Dec before) too. It does not feel like Dec and CET was +5C last I checked. It won't last forever tho' and I wonder if the winter holds a surprise later for us? Solar flux is high right now (over 130) and the jetstream is giving us warmth - typical MIA. The Eastern US is also experiencing record warmth. When this drops will the temps follow? You'll have to get the winter forecasts to see what lies ahead. Solstice is now gone but as the light grows will the cold? // A happy christmas to all at WA and all who comment or just lurk here. Enjoy! :)
On 24 Dec 2015, Steve Devine (Moderator) wrote:
Hi, just a gentle reminder of some house rules on Piers' behalf. Can everyone providing comments to WA.com provide their email address when they make a submission? This will ensure referred or blocked comments can be responded to accordingly. Secondly, can everyone please state whether or not they are subscribers in the Name section? And finally, please be civil towards each other. Inflammatory, sarcastic or aggressive comments will not be permitted. This is a forum for scientific accountability and adult discussion. Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas. Thanks for your support.
On 24 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
The end of this crazy year!
JS is south most of the time since late JUNE (!), giving an incredibly hot summer in France.
The same circulation pattern is still predominant after the bog snowy blip in October-November, giving an unusually warm christmas with North African air for most of western Europe, with warmth as far east as Moscow (forecast +4C on new year's day!)
Tentatively watching the arctic circle stations now in northern Russia.
They show the same instability, with blips of cold air being recycled off the southern JS over Russia once it's hit the polar regions.
The indications are still for snowless alps, Scandinavia,Baltic region until roughly New year's day when JS AT LAST seems to be resuming a more normal course (Ie. from the west), so after the warmth looks like the next will be lots of rain for JAN in the west, then a return to big Alpine snow ? 6-9th Jan.
Maybe I should start a ski forecast, it would save people a lot of wasted money!
ATB 2016 Piers!
On 23 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, marked change, strong SW’ly wind which gradually turned into the W, sunny all day with some cloud, max temp during the day 3˚, however, by evening it warmed up and was 7˚ by 10.30pm as the warm front was passing with slight rain, I expect it to be much colder again tomorrow morning. Like others have reported, we also have some roses in bloom and a few hollyhocks, can’t remember seeing that before since we’ve been on the farm.
On 23 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
5 deg. At 8 a.m calm morning. Wind and rain started increasing a little just after lunch time, has picked up a lot and gusty and nice n noisey during this evening with squally rain max temp 11 deg but felt colder. Some big gusts the last hour can hear tings rattling around out there. Here's hoping not too much damage for the areas already hit the hardest.
On 23 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Apologies for a couple of typos in my last comment. With regards to monthly comparisons, I've noticed an odd trend regarding the winter months...From 2012 - 2015 November has been gradually becoming milder. In 2012 daytime temperatures averaged 9c, but in 2015 that figure was over 12c. December averaged 3c in that famous 2010 episode, but has steadily risen to 12c (provisional) this year, quite a difference! Conversely, January has declined from the dizzy heights of 9c in 2006 to 6.5c in 2014, February and March have on average slipped 1c in the last 14 years, but wild variations year on year. So, in summary, the winter season definitely seems to be getting later and longer year on year. April and May have shown gradual cooldowns of about 2c for example. But more worryingly for summer lovers, June has slide from 24c in 2005 averaged by day to 19c in 2014. Definitely a cooldown if we stand back and look at the bigger picture...
On 23 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Merry Christmas to everyone here and wishing you a Happy New Year. Right, that's the obligatory stuff out of the way, now for some stats. Preliminary figures suggest that my SW corner of Essex was 1.1c cooler in 2015 than 2014, despite the anomalously mild November and December. While the mainstream media blame it on 'El Nino', 'Climate Change' or even worse 'Global Warming', use Weatheraction subscribers know it's all part of the ongoing shift into the Mini Ice Age as the Jet Stream buckles and oscillates violently around the globe, sending record cold to the W Usa and record heat to E Usa for example. I for one cannot wait for the temperatures to plummet and do some lamppost watching as the first decent snowflakes of the season eventually arrive. Models suggest this isn't like until after mid-January, so I won't hold my breath. Subscribers have the advantage of course. Yes the December forecast was off kilter for snow-lovers, but if you listen, there are reasons, not excuses here...
On 23 Dec 2015, WENDY wrote:
HIGH PEAK Derbyshire. 0nly 5 degrees this morning plus a cold wind, making it feel like 3.5! More rain forcast for Cumbria.My thoughts are with them,remembering many holidays in our caravan there.
Hope 2016 is better for them.
Happy Christmas to everyone,and a good New Year.
On 23 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Hurray! A rare break in the grey gloom as the clouds cleared overnight to bath everything in moonlight (rare Christmas full moon by the way) and the sun was beaming down this morning. Blustery winds all day yesterday with anything from drizzle, light spits to a full rain. Less windy today but the high cloud is now increasing to filter the sun. So it's storm Eva this time. Welcome to the world of children's weather forecasts - are you sitting comfortably? (older folks will remember that one). A Washington state ski resort is just 32ins short of the total snowfall for last season! Had 24ins or so in the last week. BBC boss in front of parliamentary committee being grilled over Tyson Fury said with a straight face that it could not be judgemental on what he said and that the BBC is impartial - unless you are Quentin Letts and make a radio prog that is not pro global warming.
On 23 Dec 2015, Monima O'Connor wrote:
Well I can't begin to say how ecstatic my husband and I were to see Piers's interview with Andrew Neil. Quite apart from the Global Warming Hoax ( let's hope the first cracks are now publicly appearing from others in this particular Berlin Wall, now that Piers has thrown the gauntlet down.), we know a farming family well in our part of West Wales ( Coed y Bryn) who have only use Weather Action for years and years and we had been meaning to try it out.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Piers and the team
Onwards and upwards!
On 22 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, feeling mild but then gradually going down, not least with the strong SW’ly wind with occasional gale force gusts, R4 coming in with a bit of a bang. Sunny day though, nicely drying, 5˚ at 10pm. Heard today that in South Ayrshire there are places where the daffodils are flowering.
On 22 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
Some heavy showers early a while before alarm clock went off, cleared and some sunny breaks for a time today before more drizzle, light s'ly breeze around 10 deg. 7 now at 7.35 pm feeling a little cooler. Met.ie have Orange alert for wind in Donegal ect and yellow here for Leinster and other counties as they warn of the next incoming storm..
On 22 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
RON - I am not claiming to be a professional forecaster, if I had stated for example in early December, that it was going to be cold and snowy December, I doubt you would have referenced what I had said (even though I would have been wrong)
I have praised Piers plenty of times in the past, but there does need to be balance, when he is way off and people have subscribed.
I am only a novice trying to learn about all the drivers of the weather and the LIA, I would never attempt anything like piers does (not smart enough for that) Try not to be as biased Ron and take on board the opinions of others.
On 22 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) I place very little reliability on GFS and the Mobeeb, Exacta and just a little bit more in the Norwegian MO, but just use them, as far as it is possible, to contrast and compare with what Piers has predicted weeks and months in advance. I can't remember a plethora of comments from you when Piers had a run of several months with very accurate predictions. If you are so confident in your own system, compared to Piers' then back it up and go for the money.
On 22 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - if you do follow piers work then you will know LIA doesn't mean cold and snow every winter. It seems to bother you when I state facts about mild weather or make predictions (that so far have mainly been correct) you like to do your assessments based on one unreliable model (GFS) where as I prefer to look at all the available data and previous weather patters (and solar influences of course) to make my calls. I don't take pleasure from mild weather
Thanks
On 22 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks indeed for the gratis January forecast and I'm sure it will go down well with David and Asim in terms of its content alone. Thanks too for the December update. Unlike standard models and Exacta you fully take onboard the realities, adapt and improve your prediction protocols ( we are 5 or 6 Slats in advance of where you were when I first took an interest in your approach. Looks like Exacta and The Express will have more updating to do after January.
On 22 Dec 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
ALL! In case you hadnt noticed the (rest of) DECEMBER update (following home page comment on 18th of which it is an extension) is posted in all B+I and Eu forecast subscribers access boxes. This is a useful note. Tell any subscriberwho was waiting for this. Or if you are not a subscriber become one TODAY under our amazing give-away time-limited offer.
On 22 Dec 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
GREAT COMMENTS AND CONTRIBUTIONS THANKS ALL! Monitors have noticed 'opinions' in various places shift towards WeatherAction forecasts after we allowed Boris to say a few things in his excellent piece! This means one thing: You need to know the full story! SUBSCRIBE NOW = TODAY OR BEFORE = UNDER OUR AMAZING XMAS OFFER. WeatherAction needs the cash (still very short after Paris trip etc....) and you need the forecasts! Existing Subs can use these offers as extension to whatever they already have. DO IT & PASS IT ON
On 22 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Thanks for the clarification Bob. Always keen to learn and a good explanation of the cause of the flooding - a natural event. But then we knew that here. Weather? Guess. Grey, damp, occasional bright spells, what else have we come to expect from the south-east. The rivers and streams are up, puddles in the fields and my grass is squelchy underfoot - clay beneath. Earlier this evening there was a lovely lunar halo but as of now 0025, it is raining again. Yes, Drax converted part of its operation to woodchip - carbon neutral biomass don't y'know - on receipt of taxpayers' cash. It was very upset when more taxpayers' cash didn't come but that is the nature of subsidies - fickle. Can't blame them though as they will be taxed out of business if they stick to coal. Strange that there are still people out there that think Cameron & Osborne are conservatives.Enjoy the longest night.
On 21 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
S'ly wind increasing this eve. Met.ie have Ireland on a yellow wind warning, some light rain tonight so far. Today max 11 deg. but felt cooler, 8 now at 11.15 pm again feeling colder. Sum chuffed my better half bought me early Xmas prez 12 month sub, thanks for fab deal Santa Piers ;-)
On 21 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, clear sky and very windy from the SW gradually turning into the W, cloud soon covering the sky, light rain around midday, dry afternoon with some sunshine, drying wind continuing & getting somewhat colder, 3˚ by 9pm, doesn’t yet feel like frost. == Here is another excellent video from James Corbet on “The Global Warming Pause Explained” https://www.corbettreport.com/the-global-warming-pause-explained/ Worth watching for anyone who wants to be well informed on the scam and back it up with quotes from scientific papers, extensive notes attached.
On 21 Dec 2015, Richard Brown from East Yorkshire wrote:
Drax also take wood chip from Hull City Council. They come along and hack down all the shrubs they can find then chip them. The chippings are sent to Drax.
Anyway, the wind has died down here in Hull and the rain ended a few hours ago. We are still waiting for snow to fall but the charts seem to be teasing us, showing colder weather heading our way then it goes elsewhere! Come on snow, cold and ice!!! Head this way and stay!!
On 21 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Snow down to about 2,500ft, with a cold damp wind. Mobeeb and GFS not quite in agreement, with the latter giving more chance of colder air getting into the English Midlands. Exacta still holding out for snow. There's a gap in the market there for David from Yorkshire to fill.
On 21 Dec 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
DRAX-KELLINGLEY
The power station imports biomass woodchips from America
##http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581887/The-bonfire-insanity-Woodland-shipped-3-800-miles-burned-Drax-power-station-It-belches-CO2-coal-huge-cost-YOU-pay-cleaner-greener-Britain.html## and recently 4 million tonnes of coal from America and Columbia according to the reports. ##http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/18/kellingley-colliery-coal-miners-finish-final-shift## Dont shoot the messenger. Maybe some thanks for the trade would not go a miss. Merry xmas
On 21 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Looks mild into new year Imo looking at the charts. I am still sticking to my guns that there will be no change to cold snowy weather until mid January and February will be very cold. I reckon there will be an SSW event early to mid January that will change the pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. I will await Piers January forecast to see how this compares.
Hopefully it will be more accurate than December
On 21 Dec 2015, Richard Brown from East Yorkshire wrote:
It is still mild here in Hull. I have flowers on some of my plants, the grass needs a haircut again and everything looks like early spring! How have your forecasts been compared to the weather we have been having, Piers?
I retweet your twitter posts and share your facebook posts in order to get the message out there.
Keep up the the excellent work!!
On 21 Dec 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Today was hot, horribly hot in the south Island https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/32-7c-in-dunedin-record-temperatures-hit-scorching-south-island. Motueka had about 27 degrees but fortunately we've had a breeze which has helped slightly. Even so, too hot too early.
On 21 Dec 2015, Bob Weber wrote:
Gerry, I'll clarify here. The sun's heat is from TSI, total solar irradiance, which covers the entire measurable solar spectrum from x-rays to infrared. F10.7cm solar radio flux (@2.8 GHz) is a small energetic slice of that spectrum near UV & X-ray wavelengths which correlates well with sunspot number and TSI over solar cycle lengths, but it doesn't correlate well all the time during ~27 day solar rotations. They can be out of phase. F10.7cm flux is in phase with SSN but not perfectly over a rotation. TSI actually goes down when SSN is high, AND when sunspot area is high. My long-term warming/cooling threshold of 120 solar flux units in F10.7cm is statistically equal to a TSI of ~1361.24. See TSI for the past 90 days @ http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png - it's been higher than 1361.24 - that's why it's warm & wet now, driving the El Nino evaporation. The sun's mid-Nov TSI spike caused your Cumbrian floods.
On 21 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
east side - the Mail article about the last pit closure said Drax was getting coal £13/ton cheaper from Columbia but they may have it wrong. Legacy media can't even get their heads around referendum policy that requires 9-10 months from declaration to voting day and bang on about it being held in June next year. Brandon - cold winters don't have to have snow. A static high can bring clear cold weather for weeks. The wild swings in the jetstream are solar driven as Piers would confirm and are not connected to the El Nino. Our US friend Bob has a good comment on WUWT regarding solar flux being related to sun spot area and not just the number. That explains why there were times - as indeed now - when the count is low but the sfu higher than you would expect. Only 3 numbered spots on the disc but one is big. Mail weather said light showers. Had some absolute stair rod ones today. Oh well.
On 20 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub wrote:
Welcome Brandon! LIA weather is actually warm, just get your head around that and your on board! Piers - you're amazing!!!!!!!
On 20 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, strong S’ly wind which gradually turned more towards the west, lovely sunny morning with low sun, clouding over in the afternoon, no rain, 7˚ by 10pm. The wind really helps to dry things out.
On 20 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Yesterday was mild drizzly with a light wind, lovely clear starry sky for a time in the evening and temp dropped off. Some nice sunny spells for a time today and max temp 9 deg. not that mild as washing didn't dry but nice enough to be out and about. Grass has grown better than it did in the summer here. 8 deg. now at 21.43 pm but feeling cooler. One weather site here now mentioning possibly colder for Xmas eve. night possibly sleet n snow up North and still have wind and rain on the menu around 27th. Need cold weather, I'm hoping for a cold wild card contrast in the new year :-P
On 20 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
OK, there's no snow for the many 1000s going off to the alps on holiday, but so what?
What makes you so sure?
Or is it "whinging poms" syndrome again?
(Not enough snow...whinge...... wrong type of snow -TGV and Network rail whinge.....too much snow...whinge whinge, dangerous snow, close all UK airports whinge....etc etc)
Just what exactly makes you so sure there's no "beast from the east coming"???
We have temps of -34>-40C currently which sure as anything means,- the film is coming to a cinema round the corner pretty soon.
Winter doesn't end until March, plenty of time for good skiing & "white outs" all the way from Amsterdam to Edinburgh.
"there's not going to be a great deal of snow at all just looks like the winter as a whole will be green and mild temps bit disappointing"
On 20 Dec 2015, stephen parker wrote:
Well said, Eastside.
On 20 Dec 2015, brandon wrote:
just from a person's perspective this winter looks like it's going to be so garbage no snow in sight for London and southeast in my opinion there's not going to be a great deal of snow atall just looks like the winter as a whole will be green and mild temps bit disappointing
On 20 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
More of the same mild grey and damp weather the last couple of days. Out and about yesterday there was a sharp shower. Sometimes a bit of brightness comes along and even a glimpse of sun before the cloud rolls over again. Spitting with rain at 10am. But of course it is not warm everywhere as heavy snowfalls around the world show. Our Dudd 'energy' secretary was spouting post Paris drivel in the Commons and pleased that the policy to close down our economy will carry on. Hands up those with gas CH, gas hobs, gas water heating and gas ovens. All to be phased out in the great lunatic plan. And gas fired power stations will go unless they use most of their energy to pump CO2 underground. Surprised that nobody stepped forward to offer to build new gas generation plant? It really will take widespread power blackouts to bring it home to them. Industry will be banging on the door in anger and perhaps cut off funds to Blue Labour.
On 20 Dec 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Another great weather video from Adapt 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oAcgNnVaCE
On 20 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
record heat in melbourne aus what is happening to this planet????heavy snow india real topsy turvy whilst we have very warm days nights .......... jet stream playing havoc dont see it changing much near future must be the el nino???
On 19 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
Please get your facts straight.
The majority of coal imports come from Eastern Europe - particularly Russia, which according to those EU nutters sitting in Belgium doesn't consititute a threat or reliance on 1 source of energy dependence.
Go figure, it's the same for gas!
The main reason Thatcher decided this route, was because coal miners in Russia get paid a fraction of what UK miners earnt in the UK, working down dangerous mines & don't complain.
This constitutes farming out safety/pay standards back to something like Victorian England.More people get killed mining coal than all nuclear combined.
UK miners used to spend what they earnt mostly in the UK, which benefited local jobs & businesses.
Because she said & believed there "was no such thing as community", Thatche could then set out to destroy what little was left after Euthanasia of the British steel & motor industry had become official policy.
"1000yrs of coal left in the ground & we ship it in from south america"
On 19 Dec 2015, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
If it gets any milder I will have to cut the grass!
On 19 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I too cannot see said update. Its humid toinght, feels like summer.
On 19 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, raining off & on, strong S’ly wind but way too mild again for my winter feeling, max temp 12˚, still 10˚ at 9pm. Another one of those dark gloomy days, doesn’t take much cloud to achieve that at this time of the year. However, solstice is just around the corner on the 22nd at 4.48am and by the beginning of January we can watch the days subtly lengthening in the afternoon.
On 19 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
I should of course add that should the standard models come to pass the last period Piers predicted for December will come back into his projection from weeks ago.
On 19 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVD (Yorkshire) Well latest run of GFS might just back them up and even the Mobeeb admits a chance of colder air getting into northern Scotland---standard models and Exacta in agreement--now there's a Christmas cracker with a puzzle in it!?
On 19 Dec 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Warm here in the Bath area but at least the heating bill is down. Yvette Cooper being slaughtered on twitter for being plastic about Kellingley ###https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/677758845775646720###
What a disgrace, 1000yrs of coal left in the ground and we ship it in from south america.
On 19 Dec 2015, Gaz wrote:
Just been into Maidstone, Kent town centre, midday temp in town was 18c according to my car's temp sensor. Very warm and apparently double the daily high average for this time of year. Central heating is off , had an overnight low of 12c -
On 19 Dec 2015, Emma wrote:
Hi fellow weather watchers I'm a little stumped as can't see the updated notes on Dec forecast (if there are any?) I have Dec & Jan details already is it any different? Many thanks & p.s I love snow! :-)
On 19 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - Exacta weather going for snow, are you sure ? They only forecast snow from October to April if the day ends with the letter Y
On 19 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
.this was 1660/1661
A mild winter - using the (early) CET record (nearest whole degC only), the average comes out at 5degC, or roughly one-and-a-quarter C above the all-series mean. Pepys mentions in late January that there had been a general lack of cold weather, and that it was 'dusty' (implying a warm & dry winter), with plants well ahead for the season. However, to counter that statement, there are reports elsewhere at the time of 'high winds, excessive rainfall & flooding'. The two 'types' aren't mutually exclusive though because it could mean that the southeast / London was subject to broadly above-average pressure and small amounts of rain, whilst stormy, wet spells affected the more 'Atlantic' facing regions north & west.
On 19 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
A laugh out Loud moment this morning, the BBC weather man/person on the radio this morning was trumpeting that it was almost a record warmth,But then he would not say since when the last record was and deliberately skirted around saying the date it was last this warm, the Suppressers of news refused to say because it was whey back in the early 1800s I believe or even further back than that. This was because it ran against the BBC propaganda for global warming cobblers.
It was 14c at 6 am this morning and a pleasure to be out and about, long may this global warming last..... because it just can't as we all know..
Wishing you piers and all the weather folk a happy Christmas and new year.
On 18 Dec 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// well at least it isn't a one off this warm December Daily Mail saying 1659 was a December as warm
On 18 Dec 2015, Kirt Griffin wrote:
Just did another check on the USA extreme forecast and I suspect Piers should make a complaint to the people that publish the Nation Weather Map. They copied Piers forecast. http://www.weather.com/maps/usdopplerradar Perhaps the US could save some money and just post Pier's forecasts instead of going to all that bother. Good work!
On 18 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast but the sun, just before rising in the SE, was illuminating the clouds from below quite spectacularly, as often happens at this time of year. Mostly S’ly breeze today, occasionally gusty, very damp again, light rain in the evening, remarkable 11˚ at 10.30pm.
On 18 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Rain showers on n off all day and eve. Listening to the s'ly wind blowing, high humidity and sticking around 13/14 deg
On 18 Dec 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Why do the organisations monitoring climate use the Mean (average) all the time? for example the current hottest year record is referring to the mean temp.
The temperature over a year isn't a normal distribution? I thought using the Mean for measuring on a skewed distribution wasn't reliable as the mean doesn't represent the the central tendency in this case.
Referring to statistics in general and not climate my lecturer told me that we must be careful of organisation or politicians abusing average in this way to promote their agendas.
We had an example of an estate agents selling a home in an estate, they used both mean and median without expressing so to con, they used the higher value for expressing house prices to make it sound like a nice area but the other for tax bands as it made it seem more affordable.
So, is there a reason much of the data and talks is in regards to the mean temps and not the median?
On 18 Dec 2015, Asim wrote:
The daffodils in the garden are coming out! This is stupid! Are we going to get a winter ? I have a good feeling January will follow Decembers suite as well as February. Seems like snow is getting rarer and rarer in the UK.
On 18 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS now going for a much cooler period 23-26th December, with the chance of snow on higher ground at least in parts of Ireland and Scotland. We can expect further gyrations and backtracking no doubt within a few hours. Exacta Weather also making firmer predictions of festive snow. The proof of the Xmas pudding is in-------.
On 17 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 and rising to 12˚ max, still 10˚ at 10pm, grey start and only brightening up by mid afternoon with spectacular sunset, WSW breeze all day and no rain for a change. Way too warm for me at this time of year, the whole situation as predicted by Piers for the present period - we should be under a HP and cold - appears to have shifted to the East. ==RON: yes, I remember autumn 1984 when there were 4” fresh shoots on our hawthorn in late November; then came the cold, we travelled to the Continent over New Year by train and saw Kent under 8” of snow, got stuck in Belgium and just got to Paris on the last train. 1985 was a particularly doelful summer with endless rain from June to end September, etched in my memory, we had very little money in the bank by the end of it.
On 17 Dec 2015, Tedzz wrote:
Christmas day 1932 and most of the US, to the east of the Mississipi was enjoying temperatures of 60F.
Looking at the map of the temperature divide at the time it shows a classic jet stream "wild wobble" - almost a straight line (albeit at an angle) showing the cold/warm divide. Predicting the wobble location in December 2015 and projecting it across the atlantic to the UK for a whole month must be a job and a half. That wobble location makes the difference between relative winter warmth and arctic cold.
On 17 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Mild again today max 13 deg. Cloud broke to give some nicer sunny spells and even some blue sky for a time which was good, downside to mild is sore throats being the topic of today, need a nice cold spell but blogs here say stormy wet weather for Xmas holidays.
On 17 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
16.15 and the sky is awesome, clear blue with red streaky clouds. Temp at the moment is 13.5, humiidty 95, wind 1-2 if that. We had some sudden torrential rain earlier, must have made the shoppers run. Personally I don`t find this weather very pleasant, thin top on for half the day and now a woolly jumper, it isn`t cold, I just feel cold maybe because darkness is falling. Germs and weeds must be loving this
On 17 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Woke up this morning to see for the first time since last Friday that there was no snow on the ground PADDY: yes if you are involved in growing trees these winters stick firmly in the mind. The other thing of course is long mild spells, followed by sharp cold spells. December 1984 comes to mind, followed by January 1985. That frozen period February-April 1986 was a very difficult one for tree-growers. It ain't done yet.
On 17 Dec 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Rob Horler @DavidTCDavies is my MP in Monmouth area we often have a long chat at the local shows and I follow him on twitter, he says he enjoys the challenge in the commons but I fear he finds it slow to make headway with some of them.
5 inches of rain so far this month with plenty more to come, I find Piers struggles with our part of the UK as the lines always seem close to the Bristol channel this month especially seems to be a problem.
@beefyfarmer
On 17 Dec 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Major storm for Sydney, Australia https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/aftermath-tornado-and-wild-storm-leaves-trail-of-destruction-in-south-sydney
On 17 Dec 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More on last night's hail storm in this region http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/75202637/hail-the-size-of-50c-pieces-devastates-nelson-fruit-and-berry-crops. Here's hoping (praying!) that we don't get the thunderstorms with hail predicted for this afternoon.
On 16 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Rain on and off all eve. wind picking up now too outside at 11 pm still 12 deg. So now lettuce is worse than bacon for the environment, o-o read on a newspaper tonight! For feck sakes what a load of tosh lol!-)
On 16 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Mike i am convinced this is El Nino driven, it has all the hallmarks, El Nino causes extremes and weather patterns that are stubburn to shift. I think these mild wet and windy conditions will be with us for another two weeks at least. It will be a green xmas for most if not all.
On 16 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C this morning, 2˚ warmer than last night, thick fog until midday when we almost had a bit of sunshine along with the odd spot of blue sky. Mostly dry, though the ground is fairly sodden, we had a huge amount of rain overnight. Max temp 10˚, too warm for working in winter clothes, 8˚ at 10pm. == RON, I also remember all the winters you mention, particularly 1995/6 when we lost a few thousand of our beech seedlings growing in cells to weeks of drought caused by excessive cold, also 1978/9 when we had weeks of -22˚ in and endless supply of Siberian NE’lies and even mechanical diggers failed to make any impression into the ground.
On 16 Dec 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Any subscribers from Monmouth? You have an Mp with a sensible view on climate matters as yesterdays commons debate shows;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYxy9AVVZAQ&feature=youtu.be
On 16 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
sorry mike comment was for steve
On 16 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
record snow in usa and i stand by what ive stated before when the usa is cold snowy the uk is mild ....... not always but over the time ive studied it seems that way ........ mike us posties wear shorts as long as possible because wearing long trousers whilst walking 5 miles plus is very uncomfortable ...... ive not worn trousers at all yet ... very mild today over 60 deg and i agree with others the forecast so far is a little hit a lot miss i like others would love to know why ???? not a criticism just an honest observation from a subber
On 16 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Dry today! :D worked outside all day, mostly cloudy but for a few random brief glimpses of the sun grinning through the thick dull gloomy overcast sky, gust of wind from nowhere on one occasion, weird.. mild max 14 deg. here 12 now at 3.39 pm light s'ly breeze, family keep saying what great weather we are having when they see temp, but today is the first time it has been totally dry all day not even any drizzle, the garden is well soggy, but hey mild and sunless can't complain :))
On 16 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
So according to norwichsnowman we will never see snow again and our children won't know what it is - are you Viner in disguise? Record snowfalls in the US again going back around a century. Denver has tripled a 118yr old record. White global warming with a vengeance. More grey, more damp for the last couple of days with spits of rain to some strong rain. Noted that at 2.30pm yesterday afternoon it was more like just after sunset it was so gloomy. But the cloud is keeping the warmth in and the green-tax-inflated heating bills down. Good reports from the AGU 2015 by Anthony Watts on WUWT and he is presenting on temp data there himself.
On 16 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
january is available for 45 day. All I am saying is ughhh and winter tyres an extravagance you might or might not need
On 16 Dec 2015, Mike (45d subs) wrote:
There is no sign of the weather matching the forecast in this period or the last period in the 30 day UK, Britain and Ireland forecast. Surely Piers should give us subscribers a mid month update about what is going on. El Nino, Sun, Moon, Atlantic?
On 16 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
It must be Spring I saw a postman with his shorts on, oops sorry they evidently do this to show that they aren't bothered by any weather as they are a hardy breed, nice morning cloudy again, wet yesterday mild, mild, mild. 12c first thing this morning.
On 16 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
EAST SIDE: your observations on the Brits view of climate are both amusing and insightful. Distribution maps of the last glaciation show that what is now the South East of England was not glaciated, thus proving that the Ice Age did not really happen. Further to that, fog in the Channel has frequently isolated continental Europe. Oh and by the way, my cut finger is worse than your broken leg!
On 16 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Norwich Snowman -its not about 'wanting' anything. the only people who want things are the co2ers. Science method goes by evidence not by wanting.
On 16 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
it is getting me worried too. Just taking my allotment, I worked very very hard all year,on hands and knees to remove weeds, went up last week and there are thousands more. Summer worries me too, if we get periods of intense heat. The sodden ground is worrying, just a couple of hours of rain yesterday and the lanes were running brown at various points. Personally, I need some cold and so does nature. 7.40am, 12.7 degrees, 96 humidity, 0 wind. I killed a fly too and saw a stray bee
On 16 Dec 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
After a mainly fine but windy day we were suddenly hit with a torrential deluge at 6 pm. I dashed out to close the greenhouses and put my hand out to make sure it was in fact rain and not hail. We even lost satellite connection for our TV for 5 minutes. We were lucky because 20 minutes away they had hail which would have wiped out all the outdoor summer plantings if we'd been hit. Norwich Snowman - if you look at historical records for previous LIAs such as James Marusek's chronology you will see that the wild fluctuating global weather patterns are typical of an LIA. There were hot summers and mild winters during these periods not just cold summers and cold winters. To you and Asim I would say wait until the end of the northern hemisphere winter before you judge the one that's just beginning.
On 15 Dec 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// if the jetstream shifts perhaps the wind will come Jack Frost straight down from the North - but I have daffodils in full bloom and how ridiculous I saw two flies in my kitchen - I wish it would get freezing cold just to balance things out - perhaps Piers could put a bit more science to this because it's getting me worried.
On 15 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Norwich Snowman - The mildest Decembers on CET record are 1934 and 1974 and the mildest winter overall 1868/1869. I think i am right in saying 74 was during an el nino event. Dont expect cold and snow nationwide in December, Feb is much more likely for that in winter. Feb 1947 had a mild december with charts not too disimular to the current ones. I am not saying that we will get a Feb like that one , but northern blocking usually occurs later in the winter. This is an El Nino driven winter and looking at historical data March/April could infact be colder than December/january this winter.
LIA should actually truly begin in 2022 according to some scientists and last until around 2040.
On 15 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, drizzly start, dull and grey all day, feeling way too mild & sweaty even in the light SE’ly breeze which kept going all day. Getting even milder towards evening, 7˚ at 9pm. MO says it’ll be 9˚ tomorrow, quite a change from the frosty weekend, everything wet and muddy now. Atlantic Lows appear in charge despite the Continental and Scandinavian High strengthening.
On 15 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
NORWICH SNOWMAN: Can't agree with you on all of this. Britain, as an island, as distinct from a political entity, is not bio-climatically or geo-botanically homogenous. For such a small landmass it is remarkably varied in climate and geology. South of a line roughly between the River Tees and River Exe, there are closer affinities, in some ways, with the Low Countries and Northern France than there are with areas north and west of that line, especially with the Scottish Highlands which have strong affinities with the Vestlandet counties of Norway. Only mild winters after 1988?--hardly. Glasgow and other parts of Scotland, had their coldest Xmas period ever in 1995, with minima below -20C and few of us up here will forget the winters of 2008, 2009 and 2010/11. I am also old enough to remember the very mild winters of the early 1970s, followed by the cold ones of 1978/9 and the record cold of 1981-82. It ain't done yet.
On 15 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
http://iceagenow.info/2015/12/astrophysicist-new-climate-deal-a-pack-of-lies/#more-17444
You go there Piers!!! :-)
On 15 Dec 2015, NorwichSnowman wrote:
I was right, people on this board do want another mild winter. Mild winters cause me much depression, they are evil and satanic, not to mention the floods and storms. I cant believe people endorse this kind of thing. I havent seen snow in 3 years. A British person should not be able to say this kind of thing, especially when countries that shouldnt get snow such as china are getting loads of it. Back in 2009 LIA was about colder winters in Britain and now its mild warmist winters. This LIA is obviously much different to the last one. I feel its now time to say farewell to snow. Britain used to get snow every winter at one time and mild winters didnt exist until 1988.
On 15 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Dull, drizzly and damp again. Second day in a row for heavy dark clouds and drizzle to light rain in the morning. Dry come the evening but not what i would call warm - about average for a December evening with cloud. Later in the evening there was some rain. Today the clouds are low - down to the tops of the office blocks in London and have only now lifted to Shard level. Quite amusing how a few average to warm days can enable to some to forecast the whole Winter. And the mistake of comparing the 1998 El Nino with the current while ignoring the shift in jetstream pattern that Piers has confirmed. There should be no surprise at Newsnight bias since it is corporate policy to promote global warming. The only reason for wanting cold - not necessarily snowy - winters is to hit the warmists.
On 15 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
correction to previous post "This was also after the date change in 1752 " should read 'before'
On 15 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
NorwichSnowman.... The chances of snow seem to be decreasing each year. ....Met says "January and March than in December with snow or sleet falling an average 3.9 days in December, compared to 5.3 days in January, 5.6 days in February and 4.2 days in March.". The last time uk had frequent snow at christmas was during the last mini ice age when the thames froze. This was also after the date change in 1752 when christmas was put back another 12 days. So no idea who telling you snow is less likely. Scotland has 14cm snow and -7c yesterday. 3 years is not a climate period. Try 1000 years
On 15 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Unbalanced Newsnight monday report on the climate deal [again]. They had 2 people to talk about it but both were co2ers one of which was co2 extremist Monbiot so they ended up arguing about which co2 projection was right. There was no balance voice to point out co2 does not drive temps in interglacial warming periods and any claim of linkage between co2 rise and temps has been busted by the pause and why they looking in the sea for the missing heat....people are amazed when i show them ice age charts and are angry they been lied to since school brainwashing
On 15 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
David Yorkshire, I'm not expecting a winter like 2010 I'm just hoping for a wee slice of it, yes I know we can't control the weather, yes I know the downside it causes chaos but then so does all the rain we've been having. I just like weather basically which is kinda lucky as we all get lots of it, only coming from a seasonal point of view it would be nice if it got cold, cos yeah I'm a big kid and born in a 1978 blizzard and it makes me appy thinking of snow, but if it does not happen I won't be that childish that I will get cranky about it! ;-) mild dull overcast with a light breeze at 10.23 a.m
On 15 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
My Daphne's out in the garden a full month early and it spreads it's scent all around the garden, wonderfull, you can keep your snow this weather is wonderfull, very mild this morning, not sure what the sky's are doing it's pitch dark out.
Feb March can be cold and crisp, buy a forecast to get the gist of what we are to get.
On 15 Dec 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
THANKS FOR GREAT COMMS ALL and BUY FORECASTS NOW WHILE STOCKS LAST - There are a lot of SURPRISES in store and we have to pay for that Paris trip. NORWICHSNOWMAN, EASTSIDE IS CORRECT. The FACTS of the last 7years are that Wild Jet Stream Mini-Ice-Age conditions have taken over totally. There are 196 countries in the world and the UK is a small one. You cannot conclude anything from 2 weeks of mild or cold winter here or anywhere in terms of the world. We can however say world-wide the wild Jet stream related extremes are 100% in line with WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique and Zero% in line with the warmists and luke-warmists deluded dishonest daft dangerous diabolical diatribe.
On 15 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
I'm sorry this is total nonsense.
Just because the jetstream is south & has been this way for much of the year,-causing a massive heatwave in France for months on end this summer, so has the circulation set to drive warm air up from Africa once again this week.
We are expecting 15-18C in north east France this thursday>Saturday!
The downside, is to give a rotten rainy summer in Russia, & now a very early winter.
You can't generalise from you limited view from a rainy little island on the edge of the atlantic.
Early snowfall in the Alps & Pyrenees already gave good ski conditions several weeks early!
You also conveniently forgot December 2010 which was bitterly cold all over the UK.
"The chances of snow seem to be decreasing each year. The weather at the moment is in favour of the warmists. You would think that the LIA would produce cold winters but it now looks like snow and cold winters are a thing of the past in Southern England and will never happen again."
On 14 Dec 2015, NorwichSnowman wrote:
What i meant to say as well in my last message was that Norwich hasnt had a snowfall now for a RECORD 3 years. Does anyone else think that Southern England will never get snow again because thats the way things are looking? The chances of snow seem to be decreasing each year. The weather at the moment is in favour of the warmists. You would think that the LIA would produce cold winters but it now looks like snow and cold winters are a thing of the past in Southern England and will never happen again.
On 14 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I am sure we all like Snow, it brings back childhood memories and is great for thd kids. What puzzles me is that people seem to wish for big freezes with disruptive snow. These events cost lives (mainly elderly and homeless) and cost businesses alot of money. So ideal situation is, it snows and sticks around for a day or two and then buggers off.
People need to stop expecting December 2010 every wiinter. I always look to feb/March for the snow or crisp winter days with sunshine and frosts.
Ron - if you are looking for a more accurate long range forecast i will let you know when myself and Asim are set up with warmisttrolls.com. Only pulling your leg Ron.
Piers any thoughts on the remarkable temps in the Northern hemisphere and what solar factors may be contributing to this?
On 14 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Between 0˚ and 1˚C at 7.30, rain falling onto a frozen surface and creating a thin layer of really slippery slush. We on our hill have some of the white stuff but 30 metres lower there was nothing, further inland towards Aboyne they had 5cm of it this morning. Dreich all day, even foggy from time to time, temp 2˚ for most of the day in a cold NW’ly breeze. Warming up this evening to 3˚ at 9pm, light drizzle just in our neck of the woods according to the radar. There is HP to the NW of the BI as forecast by Piers but it appears to be weakening against the Atlandtic Lows trundling up from the SW. Lets see what happens when the R4 kicks in on Wed.
On 14 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
NORWICH-SNOWMAN: yes, there are those who react with almost a kind of Schadenfreude if Pier's' forecasts go out of kilter, but can they point to a better long term forecast?. This long period when Piers has been correct must be annoying for them. GFS gyrating round its own arse again and reverting to more of chance again for seasonal weather on Xmas Eve & Day in the north. The last few winters have been very snowy in the Highlands though not severely cold and the ski centres have done great business. We still have much of the snow from today and the weekend, but it looks as if it will go on Wednesday.
On 14 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Norwich Snowman, what can we do about it, we cannot as you seem to think conjur up the weather, it has a nasty habit of doing it,s own thing, don't be deceived by the Paris jamboree that man has the power to control the weather.
On 14 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Saturday was cold and wet, Sunday milder and gloomy grey with some showers. Today rain for a change around 10 deg. Wish it would dry up and get really cold and snow and stay all icy like 2010. :P
On 14 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Norwichsnowman- temps in an interglacial warming period might get warmerand can go up 4c and still be in normal ranges. So its to misunderstand that its about warming. Its about the claim co2 is the driver of interglacial warming periods for which there is NO evidence. Neitther will taxes stop inter glacial warming periods. Temps have been higher in the medieval and bronze eras. Nothing to do with co2. Also 30 years is not a climate period by which to measure which is what they do. Which is also why they decontextualise current temps from ice age charts which put the current temps into context.
On 14 Dec 2015, NorwichSnowman wrote:
It seems to me there are a lot of people on here who want another mild winter this year, the third in a row. People claim they are sceptics of the global warming theory and then they want a mild winter and complain that the media are going on about global warming. Well of course they are going to go on about it if southern Britain keeps getting milder than average winter temperatures. What Britain now needs is a run of cold freezing winters.
On 14 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers did say it would be a month of contrasts temp wise. However it is not drier or colder than normal. in fact it is wetter and milder than normal. Record breaking CET on the way for December I reckon. No sign of the jet going south and shifting the Euro High any time soon. I reckon daffs will be out in Jan at this rate. Great for the heating bills and elderly this weather
On 14 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
RICHARD( EAST MIDLANDS) : One of my neighbours recorded -9C yesterday morning. The snowploughs came along and pushed the snow off the road on to our pavement, then a short time later the mini-snowplough came along and pushed it off the pavement back on to the road. Victor Melldrew had a pint you know!1
On 14 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Have you noticed the BBC are behaving like a dog with two tails, they are having a told you we would make all you deniers suffer for no believing in co2 causing all this word wide catastrophe in warming, Ye gods how they have fallen in my estimation. They are totally wrong of course. Lol.
Very mild this morning 11c with a glimmer of brightness at 10.15 PM, very still this morning not much air movement for all the wind turbines.
On 14 Dec 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
"Basically, COP21 was a massive taxpayer-funded boondoggle, in which "leaders" enjoyed all the perks of Paris for two weeks, burned through hundreds of millions in public funding, and created millions of tons in greenhouse gases (what do you think to private jets and government 747s use to fly?) that has achieved absolutely nothing." ===> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-12/con21-halt-worlds-demise-dont-rely-those-who-caused-it === Had a fog yesterday that cleared but mold is the word - feels like October not Dec (up North it is quite different with snow - hard to believe the contrast with the southern half). I am always wary of these spells and winter has only just begun. As always make use of it whilst you can
On 14 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Ron- according to CET that Met use as a proxy for UK you are enjoying warmest temps on record lol The snow is made by machines for the tourists.....joking aside there were warnings that Scotland could be colder than the artic with -10 although recent reading have -7c but its getting colder as the morning moves on with 16cm snow at aviemore
On 14 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
It has been snowing all night and now there's 10cm level fall on top of the frozen snow from the weekend ( 140metres Highland Perthshire) Roads not gritted or ploughed, so the kids might have a snow-day off. So far conforming to 30day forecast up to Tuesday , but rest of week at variance with it. GFS doing its usual gyrations and twists and that profound direct Arctic blast it was predicting for Xmas Eve, just a few days ago has now turned into a westerly.
On 14 Dec 2015, Kent Weald wrote:
After a period of low activity, localised eruptions and a few flares are one developing....... I love the way winter brings this blog to life :-)
On 13 Dec 2015, Kent Weald wrote:
After a period of low activity, localised eruptions and a few flares are one developing....... I love the way winter brings this blog to life :-)
On 13 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, bright start to the day with the sunshine growing hazier as the time went on, temps barely rising to 1˚, light wind generally from a N’ly direction, cloud moving in more seriously by 4pm, 0˚ by 9pm. Overall a fine frosty winter’s day with the ground staying hard, Piers pretty much on cue for our parts. Rain apparently not far off though, judging by the radar at 9pm, according to MO it should reach us by 10pm. If it does rain on top of frost driving conditions tomorrow will be pretty tricky.
On 13 Dec 2015, Phil sub nov oct dec Ipswich wrote:
Must Watch: Climatologist Breaks the Silence on Global Warming Groupthink https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GujLcfdovE8
On 13 Dec 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Gerry, be thankful for your glimpse of the sun. Here it has been particularly dull today with thick cloud, colder than of late but not especially so. Looking back, the dullness of Nov/Dec has been as noticeable as the mildness. In November we had significantly less than 50% of the sunshine of a typical year; December is shaping up to be better than November but still well down on typical totals and nothing in the forecast for at least the next week.
On 13 Dec 2015, steven wright wrote:
looking at the gfs models at the moment(the weatheroutlook) on christmas day there could be a white christmas for some in scotland ireland north england and wales and some in the south still a little way off but this has been showing up in the last couple of days
On 13 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
I was informed by somebody who was up much earlier than me that it was calm yesterday morning but by midday the wind was up and continued well into the evening. A bit of bright disappeared under a grey sky with some spits of rain and then some rain after dark but not much looking at my gauge. As 1pm the wind today has dropped and the grey has brightened to give a glimpse of sun. For comparison, the Met for here has thick clouds on the forecast. lol
On 13 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
So..no binding treaty in Paris - who'd have thought eh? Obama wants to leave office having saved the planet but without congress and the senate behind him that won't happen. The can is conveniently kicked down the road until the next COP which will be the last chance to save us all - again! And when it comes to can kicking - step forward Call Me Dave. The man who promised a decision on London airport expansion by the end of this year - and who also promised there would be no Heathrow expansion, along with many other conveniently forgotten promises - has now delayed it until after the London Mayor elections. I hope people will remember his promises in October 2017 when in the EU referendum he will be asking to be trusted to negotiate a good deal for the UK in the as yet undefined 'associate member' class of the EU. Those of us who wish to leave will be pointing out every broken promise. Wind was a feature yesterday in the SE. Cont'd.
On 13 Dec 2015, paul wrote:
if a trillium plus dollars is going to be shared out to developing countries to combat so called AGW, what it some of the money end up in corrupt African dictators bank accounts or to fund terrorists.You can buy a lot of guns, tanks for say £50 billion and nuclear weapons,
When the atlantic ocean go into its cold phase in 5 yrs time coupled with low solar active, it will come as a shock and no amount of data manipulation will be able to hide the temperature drop.
On 13 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - i am not blowing my own trumpet, i have just simply stated in previous blogs on this link that the last time we had an El Nino lke this one (97/98) the winter was mild overall and produced some very mild days. If the upcoming weather patterns or charts are very simular to pre winter 47/63/79/2010 it always gets mentioned it could be very cold winter, whats the difference?
When if first stated this and commented on the mild October and November, it started a good debated as to whether it had been a mild Autumn in the Uk.
If someone adds a comment on here that is not Cold related or dares to say the forecast is off track, you seem to imply they are a warmist troll.
I support Piers in work and certainly do not believe in AGW. What i do believe in is people acting like adults and taking on board other peoples points of view and observations.
Thank you
On 13 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Quote
In the end, what we apparently got out of Paris is voluntary emission caps, voluntary progress reviews, no international oversight of any voluntary progress, and voluntary contributions to the Fund.
Of course, the entire climate cataclysm mantra is based on the claim that carbon dioxide has replaced the solar and other powerful natural forces that have driven climate change throughout Earth and human history. Now, merely tweaking CO2 emissions will supposedly stabilize climate and weather systems.
President Obama fervently believes this delusion. He will likely use the voluntary Paris gobbledygook to say America somehow has a “moral obligation” to set an example, by de-carbonizing, de-industrializing and de-developing the United States. Thankfully, Congress and the states will have something to say about that, because they know these anti-fossil fuel programs will destroy jobs and living standards, especially for poor, working class and minority families.
On 13 Dec 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A storm hit Canterbury NZ today that is more like October weather than December https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/storm-causes-havoc-in-the-south-fire-crews-called-to-over-35-related-jobs.
On 13 Dec 2015, Jonathan Hunt wrote:
Excellent interview on This Week Piers! It has been depressing to see such a drive yet again on climate change actions that seem to have not learned a thing from the last 10 years (at least)! It feels we are being forced to wear even more shackles that will not do anything but hold us back economically, punish the poorer consumers and not prepare us to adapt quickly enough to the cooling conditions we will face in a few years. Your interview on the BBC brings hope to the debate, please continue doing this! Politicians cannot argue what they do not fully understand and this was evident in the interview. If the public get to see that they don't, they will start to question what is being pushed upon them by our politicians. Well done also on pointing out that ideology and party is separate and science is science whichever party you support. I look forward to more of these debates and we support you to challenge the science 100%!
On 12 Dec 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
That climate deal in full: (1) We the UN want you all to keep global warming to 1.5% but wont mind if it is 1.99% (and then only if possible). (2) We want you to say what you are doing to achieve this every five years but (3) if what you are doing is nothing then we won't be able to do anything. (4) Rich countries will give poor countries $100 billion a year to help them do this, actually they won't be giving them anything as they already give more than that in overseas aid. Er..Well..thats it. Doubles and champagne all round before we all fly home first class in gas guzzling jets....
On 12 Dec 2015, Bob Weber, Michigan subscriber wrote:
My take on all things, in part intended to show the solar cause of the Cumbrian floods, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/12/final-draft-of-cop21-reached-with-a-1-year-opt-out-clause/comment-page-1/#comment-2095243 Whatever was decided at COP21 will be rebuked by nature, by solar variation, in the months and years to come.
On 12 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, still hard frost in places, a grey day with a cold & damp NW’ly breeze, no snow contrary to what the overhead signs on the A90 warned of yesterday, max temp 2˚, 0˚ by 9.30pm.
On 12 Dec 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Well the Paris Farago is over!!! even if it go to extra time and Penalties firstly the BBC say nearly 200 countries signed up BUT last week it was OVER 200 so already there are cracks appearing and i think there is a lot the BBC are Not telling us.Firstly the grapevine says the final agreement is NOT legally binding (how else would Obama Bin Laden get it through Congress) .So if it is not legally binding what was the point of the jamboree in the first place anyway.If it was a legally binding agreement you will not get your third runway now at Heathrow will you Mr Cameron.Onto the current weather lovely and mild fishing today but heavy snow in the N.E England esp County Durham.Possibly a little earlier than Piers forecast but none the less Piers always claimed heviest of December snowfall would be in the North East but what what a contrast between North and South
On 12 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
"Looks like a technical White Christmas for some..."
Correct.
Outlook is for a fair deal of snow in Ireland and Scotland for the 25th.
France is in for a REALLY warm spell especially for next weekend, as hot air from the Sahara gets sprayed all over it.
Unfortunately for us, we're going to be faced with the JS forcing it's way back down from the north after it's blast from the south into the polar regions.
That's a notherly wind chock full of humidity.
Expecting BIG snow right through the Baltic states into western Russia for the last 7-10 days of this year.
On 12 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Correction - I meant to put by next Thursday NOT Tuesday. Wet snow this morning then rain all day.
On 12 Dec 2015, B Smith NE Wales wrote:
Cold wet start ,barometer dropping very quickly about 15mb in 12 hours.wind picking up to gale force by lunch timeThe stark contrasts to northern and southern areas of UK is remarkable. This current system is more noteworthy because the fast development of localisd gales on the southern warm flank as thhe low moves through . I notice winds gusting 78 mph at AberdarronNWWales
The trend looks likely to continue for next 2weeks if you believe the the gfs charts. showing some potential for really nasty weather around the Christmas week.
On 12 Dec 2015, B Smith NE Wales wrote:
Cold wet start ,barometer dropping very quickly about 15mb in 12 hours.wind picking up to gale force by lunch timeThe stark contrasts to northern and southern areas of UK is remarkable. This current system is more noteworthy because the fast development of localisd gales on the southern warm flank as thhe low moves through . I notice winds gusting 78 mph at AberdarronNWWales
The trend looks likely to continue for next 2weeks if you believe the the gfs charts. showing some potential for really nasty weather around the Christmas week.
On 12 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Piers: opening period for this phase of the December forecast ( 30d) spot on up here and standard Mobeeb model in agreement with it. More variance from you in these next week. Perhaps Asim and David Yorkshire should now set up a rival company with you, rather than waste their time in these columns, just telling us how good they are at predicting the weather compared to you!!??
On 12 Dec 2015, Roger wrote:
No winter at all here in London. Birds greet the sunrise, cherry blossom is out, daffodils are sprouting, spring has arrived. meanwhile the country is cut in half, and winter has come further north. Begins to look like a repeat of past year, no snow, no winter. Or is it too early to say? What does Piers say?
On 12 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE DEVINE: What we were we saying about the GFS charts and backtracking!? Very different projection for the Xmas week period compared to much of the last week's predictions.. Now going for a less severe NW flow, though colder than the mild spell coning in next week
On 11 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Alot of the models showing a trend for very mild air, over the southern half of the UK next week. 18 degrees possible by tuesday in London. El Nino delivering what i have mentioned in previous posts.
I dont think it is cold enough for snow here tommorrow but that is what is being forecasted.
On 11 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Cool start this morning, dry today with some sunny spells max temp 7 deg. working outside was nice as was starting to get cabin fever, temp dropped off around 3pm and now 4 deg. at 9.30 pm feels colder. Met have Orange rain warning for the counties already hit the hardest with flooding and yellow rain warning here in Leinster, they also mentioned possible snow for a time here in the midlands then turning back to rain.
On 11 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C overnight, 0˚ at 7.30, clear start, then cloud drifting in and out but a mostly sunny day in a moderate W’ly wind. Max temp 2˚ and still that at 9pm even though it felt as if it was going to be really frosty, there is a warming up of sorts going on, though the ice on puddles in sheltered parts is still there. == I see that the MO are now really sticking their neck out: they’re now giving a 7-day forecast on their local page. I’ve taken a screenshot which I’ll compare to my records in a week’s time. == Interesting interview of Jim Steele on Corbett Report http://bit.ly/1QjCvxL Steele has a good article on Antarctic ice on his site http://landscapesandcycles.net/antarctic-climate-change-all-natural-.html
On 11 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Ron : Loved that description of the GFS! And you're right about Christmas. My childhood memories were of cold, frosty nights in the build-up, then grey and horribly dull on the day itself, then snow after Boxing Day. I'd love our own kids to see a White Christmas, even if they do have to put up with another fortnight of this mild dross before hand. The Jet Stream has to buckle under the UK eventually.
On 11 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE DEVINE: I have once or twice in the past, likened GFS Charts to chimpanzee foot painting! I notice that they do backtrack quite at. Just a few days ago it looked like a cold spell just before Xmas, but mild on the day ( childhood memories in that respect). We've had something of a winter here, though not remarkably so, but we are only 12 days in.
On 11 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Ron, agree with your synopsis of the GFS output there. Blowtorch SW'lies next week then a returning polar maritime airmass just before Christmas Day. However, I want to stress a point about the models. Until yesterday, the GFS output stated that low pressure would slide east across us dragging northerlies down it's western flank over the UK for 16/17th. Now it's completely gone in the other direction. Who knows, by the weekend it may start backtracking again. As Piers once said, it doesn't matter how powerful you make the supercomputers, they just produce the wrong answers quicker. They also completely ignore that giant thermonuclear reactor in the sky we call the Sun. I hope and pray it does get colder. This has been an unbearably mild year.
On 11 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire): GFS going for milder on Monday and very mild thereafter until 17th. Then, getting gradually cooler with a very cold Arctic snap coming in on the 23rd, getting very cold on Xmas Eve with a warmer air mass coming in late afternoon/early evening on Xmas day. Looks like a technical White Christmas for some as the warmer air bumps into the cold air. Mild on Boxing Day with cooler westerlies coming in on the 27th. Don't really trust GFS but it's been consistent over the 23rd -26th period for a few days. We still have Xmas card conditions here in Highland Perthshire today.
On 11 Dec 2015, steven wright wrote:
having the eu anoted pressure chart for december helps to solve why the next few days for the south east is wrong the low pressure has shifted more north then expected which is abit annoying for someone like me who likes it cold but im not blaming anyone for it its just the way it goes
On 11 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - What's the latest from GFS? Looks very mild for next week on some charts.
On 11 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
most of us don`t need or want visual aids and hand holding Mike. All you need is a pencil. I see we are just about to go into the third section and the weather has changed from about mid day. Gloomy, grey and some rain but not much volume, I can sort of sense some sun behind the cloud blanket. 10 degrees, 90% humidity wind about 3. Still warm and damp enough for birds to feed in any which way here, not needing my feeders yet. Starling murmuration each day lately
On 11 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Just within the snowline here at 140metres with heavy falls of large flakes. No wind so sticking to trees etc and giving that winter-wonderland look ( 1100 hrs 11th December)
On 10 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C all day, 1˚ now at 9pm with a frost clearly in the offing. Wind has changed into the W’ly quarter, returning polar air at last, bracing. == Richard East Mids: well done for highlighting that Greenpeace sting, I read the article in the (In)Dependent, the headline - which is what sticks in people’s minds - typically insinuates that the skeptics have been “caught” but when you read the article it becomes evident that the case is not at all clear-cut. Dr Patrick Moore, co-founder of Green(peace, my derrière) has reported them to the FBI, so it may yet blow up in their face.
On 10 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
6 deg at 7.30 a.m some cold showers followed by a short dry sunnyish spell, max 7 deg. More showers and cold rain this afternoon & almost sleety in nature this eve. 5 deg at 6pm feels cooler.. Met had a possible couple of dry days for early next week now changed to unsettled. Some videos on the net showing the extent of the flooding over here, hope it stops raining soon. Heavy rain starting again now, me n my big mouth!
On 10 Dec 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
See Piers has 12000 plus views on you tube;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_Ae4DES9z8
The public are wising up fast.
On 10 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
I see the Independent frontpage today bought hook line and sinker the Greenpeace spin on their attempt to entrap what they call a 'climate denier'. Here is the other side of the story that the one sided independent missed. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/08/breaking-greenpeace-co-founder-reports-greenpeace-to-the-fbi-under-rico-and-wire-fraud-statutes/
On 10 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
Tongue in cheek,perhaps piers will send you some crayons for Christmas, red Scotland ,purple England ,Ireland green. Wales green with yellow dots.
Nice day until 1 the clouded over with smeechy rain in the air, 12 c at 3pm.
You need a sense of humour at the moment as you can see with the cop21 Paris, a lot of comedians there.
On 10 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Tuesday was a day of contrast as the early rain cleared to blue skies although there was a sharp shower in London at 4pm. And with the clear sky came the cold. A good frost on the van in the morning showing how the cloud keeps the warmth in but at this time of year when it goes we get frost. Clear again for most of Wednesday but rain came after dark and there was no frost. Spitting with rain and overcast this morning but has cleared to bring some sunshine. No surprise to see the Met being economical with the truth over the rainfall, aided by their pals at the BBC even though they part company soon their ideology is the same. Mention of Moonbat just brings laughter as one of the most deluded of the Guardianistas although hard to pick just one out. Toynbee is another space cadet there. So India just want $2.5tr to go renewable not by having economic renewables but by taxing coal to make it expensive.
On 10 Dec 2015, David Parsons wrote:
Can understand how moist air being forced to rise over the high ground of the Lake District cools and condenses and leads to large amounts of rain. The very strong winds add to this by ensuring a constant supply of moisture. The science regarding this is sound. However, a statement "extra solar factors enhance rainfall" is nonsense. There is no science to back this up. The processes which brought about the Cumbria rainfall were limited to the bottom 3000 feet of the atmosphere and all easily explained by conventional meteorology.
On 10 Dec 2015, Barbara wrote:
It is not overly mild everywhere in the UK, our local temperatures this December so far, high 13c, low -0.3c, average 5.6c, only 3c at the moment, in spite of it being bright and sunny.
On 10 Dec 2015, Mike (45d subs) wrote:
I have to say I agree with Asim. Please can Piers draw a line across the Britain map in each of the forecast periods - say from the Wash to the Severn and show the harsh weather up North as different from our clement climate down South. Thanks for more clarity.
On 10 Dec 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Piers and Bob have been chatting about the floods over at the news blog. I've collated them with Piers comments on homepage ===> http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2015/12/09/piers-corbyn-nw-england-extreme-floods-driven-by-wild-jet-stream-mini-ice-age-conditions-nothing-to-do-with-co2/ === a few of the videos mentioned here are on the news blog site as well as Mark Steyns rather stinging comments at the senate hearing ===> weatheraction.wordpress.com // Asim - what goes up must go down so for wild jetstream where one area brings a warm air feed so it must drop elsewhere - the cold+heat contrasts are what drive the floods. See the above link for images - the cold is west of UK from Greenland. // Jasmine still alive and flowering! A few roses still. Not unheard of as remember a rosebush flowering on Xmas eve early 1990s. May have 1st daf shortly (that is early by a few weeks) Took until late Nov cold to kiss Nasturtiums & few others-has been later in recent years but not by much
On 10 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Asim
Just learn to read the plot and you will see the maps say it all,
So you want cold and snow go to Norway, they usually have some, piers is the forecaster on here, have you noticed, you are speculating, that is an entirely different thing.
On 09 Dec 2015, Asim wrote:
So far I would just like to say my December predictions so far have been bang on! This mild weather / spring like conditions will continue well into January 2016. This is what I strongly believe. This wild jet stream ... Does it even deliver any cold weather or is it just floods? So far my neck of the woods SE has been v mild spring weather. Would also like to point out, when it comes to the dec forecast, in future where to put the line interms of the the weather expected, it would be more easier and better in future if it was just for Scotland when it comes to cold / snow and do another line for the rest of UK ..espeacily SE as its very misleading, this happened last year as well. Scotland is the place that most of the time comes out right.
On 09 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
This was added today by meto and with all their data and super computers surely they won't be too far out, or will they?
Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2015 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2015:
Outbreaks of rain, falling as snow initially across Scotland, will spread northeastwards across all of the UK through Monday and into Tuesday, introducing mild conditions after a cold start in the north. The heaviest and most prolonged rain along with the strongest winds will be in the south and west, while the north and east could see some drier periods. Thereafter it will remain unsettled for most areas, with the wettest and windiest weather in the north and west. Further south and east some drier spells are likely between the rain with an increasing risk of frost and fog. The more unsettled conditions in the north and west are then likely to return nationwide towards the end of the forecast period. Temperatures generally will be near or just above average.
On 09 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Rain off n on all day heavy rain around 7 pm a bit windy but not as windy as recently, max temp 11 deg. 9 now at 8 pm and still raining with a W'ly wind.
On 09 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, damp & drizzly to about 10, then intermittent sunshine for most of the day. SW’ly wind in the morning, gradually increasing to gale force in the afternoon, really wild around 4pm; another day on which temps crept up to 10˚, even now at 6pm. I’m putting my comment in early today just in case we get a powercut, occasionally happens in high winds. == Re Monbiot, as a tree grower and having planted 10s of thousands on our land I agree with him on that, zealot or not, but it’s always a question of balance; most of the various agencies are staffed by pen pushers and not by people with actual practical experience. If you want to see just how silly the whole warmist “science” is, Corbett does a brilliant 5 min video on its contradictory knicker twisting bumbling here https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=huKY5DzrcLI
On 09 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK.sub wrote:
iconoclast
a person who attacks or criticizes cherished beliefs or institutions.
synonyms: critic, sceptic, questioner; More
2.
a destroyer of images used in religious worship, in particular:
Ha ha the religious belief then is global warming.
On 09 Dec 2015, Gazza wrote:
I paid for 6 months worth of 30d forecasts but only have access to dec 75d forecast and older 30d forecasts?
On 09 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
i have a forecast but its in a new format
On 09 Dec 2015, Graham (sub. east midlands) wrote:
Help, has everyone received the 30day full detail forecast or is it just me ??
On 09 Dec 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Harris, to be fair there are a number of schemes already underway. Earlier this year I came across the planting at Scandale Beck mentioned here: https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/plant-trees/why-plant-trees/water-management/water-partnership-projects/england/north-west/#scan. Rob, I enjoy trees as well as the big views the Lakes offer. There's plenty of room for both. The Scandale scheme is a good example; it's a bit of a backwater and the planting won't spoil any of the vistas along of from the tops. Trees may not be a complete solution to flooding but they've got to help. Concrete may have it's place too but certainly not everywhere and in many cases all it does is to push the problem downstream even more quickly.
On 09 Dec 2015, Harris Keillar wrote:
Monbiot is not everyone's' cuppa tea though he is a genuine iconoclast and his views on upland grazing bear not only listening to, but carrying out. I know the Lakes are beautiful for a wide array of reasons though it would make sense to plant lots of trees on some of the more marginal land and see what it does with regard to run off.
On 09 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Yes I take your point about the environment agency, they do come accros as automaton experts, they are robots, you can't do that health & Safety zealots in Welles,
You will never stop the odd weather event in this country, it,s in our DNA for goodness sake.
On 09 Dec 2015, steven wright wrote:
the forecast for the 7th to 11th spot on here in hitchin blue sky little wind and warm for this time of year
On 09 Dec 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
George has a few reasonable points about tree planting but the landscape of the lakes is grassland and thats what the punters want to see i suspect, very manicured is the lakes. As for ploughing has George not heard that the farmers in the wye valley are already planting a seccond crop with their corn and wheat to hold the soil together? Suprised that was omitted. As a former employee of the wasteful environment agency i was suprised he quoted "Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that Paterson has demanded massive cuts at the Environment Agency, including many of the staff responsible for preventing floods." The manual workforce of the agency is small in comparison to the pen pushers and handicapped by manic health and safety zealots. The real work is often subbed to contractors.That level of water could only be tamed by large civil engineering projects,i have always favoured extra channels, large storage lakes or excavation underground as they have done in Rotterdam.
On 09 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Why is it that the word George Monbiot makes me think global warmist zealot, is it just me, I think you are referring to the fact that he wants to BAN all sheep from the hills, there was me thinking he was referring to us co2 realists baa baa., he wants to plant zillions of trees instead off, I may be off the mark as I refuse to waste my time reading his stuff.
You will educate me if I am mistoken.
On 09 Dec 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Christine, I suspect an upland sheep farmer will have different views but George Monbiot's logic (and data) in the article you reference seems pretty impeccable to me. I'd also recommend his book, Feral, in which the same ideas and related ones are set out at greater length.
On 09 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
I see Meto are quoting some study that these storm will be more frequent due to co2. I bet they based on the same models that can't predict next week. That is all they do. They have rubbish models loaded with co2 assumptions then they spend all day churning out scenarios and then publishing ones that cherry fit their religion.
On 09 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Steve- good work. As with ANY Meto claim about records one has to verify them as we saw with the 'heat island heathrow' and the sun trap sheltered welsh station that is not trusted by the locals . Records should be backed up by other stations confirming it but all we get is '1 reading records' from suspect station that often contradict what other stations around are saying.
On 09 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
A quote from the notalotofpeopleknowthat site
Ref the rain in Cumbria.....
The gauge belongs to the Environment Agency, and I have asked them to confirm how long it has been operational. As I reported earlier, it only appears to have been operational since 1970, and records since then are incomplete.
I am still not aware of any confirmation from the Met Office.
It is worth noting however that this record only applies to any 24-hour period, and not for a rainfall day, which runs from 9.00am. The record for the latter still remains at Martinstown, Dorset, in 1955, when 279mm fell.
So is it a record still for Martinstown Dorset... a inconvenient truth.
On 09 Dec 2015, Confused of Tonbridge Wells wrote:
Some clown from the MO under the title of Head Of Climate Monitoring was on Breakfast News saying that the recent heavy rain was in part caused by a warm North Atlantic. It seems just a few months ago they were blaming the cold start to summer on an unusually cold Atlantic. so what has happened to the cold blob they were talking about recently??
On 09 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
East Side, to you I say thanks for the compliment,I have never been told before that I have a fine mind, it has made my day, thank you so much.
Now I have been told that I am a fool and should know better than to believe the world is flat by a global warmest believer but that is quite another story.
On 09 Dec 2015, occasionally David wrote:
Oh the weather outside is delightful, so the fire inside is frightful, but I don't want any place to go, so let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. (with apologies to Dean Martin fans)
On 08 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
3 deg at 11.20 pm cool and clear starry night, Looks like temp will rise back up to 9 deg by early tomorrow morning. Yellow wind warning in place for Ireland after midnight - tomorrow night, yellow rain warning for some coastal counties.
On 08 Dec 2015, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Met Éireann forecasting colder weather by the end of the week after some wind and rain Wednesday. They even mention snow and severe frost but not lasting after Sunday, we shall see.....
On 08 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, overcast and grey start but soon lightening up to a very nice sunny day, SW’ly breeze as per usual, much calmer than yesterday, temps gradually going down, eventually reaching 4˚ by 9.30pm.
On 08 Dec 2015, east side wrote:
For those wanting to read some proper science and particularly from Svalgaard, I can't recommend better reading than some "termination shock" discussions, and the helium/heavy particle balance v proton/electron flux of CMEs.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/06/scientists-shed-light-on-how-solar-flares-accelerate-particles-to-nearly-the-speed-of-light/
"It’s commendably selfless of Dr. Svalgaard to teach science hobbyists like myself here and at his website.
I appreciate his gift of sharing, along with all the other fine minds who participate here, and offer my thanks."
On 08 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron the models can't handle what will happen at the end of this week let alone next. It is one to watch though.
I have daffodils coming through which is just bizzare for early december. December will come in about 2 degrees above average at this rate.
On 08 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Let's be honest all of the garbage the BBBC keep trotting out is akin to the Stasi East German propaganda machine of old, but they seem oblivious to the fact that most of the thinking people in GB are laughing at them, they are beyond parody, just liars now. Shame that they have been taken in by overpaid buffoons.we had a 14 c start to the day with a few showers then it became sunny and nice day about 12c, with a blustery wind,getting chilly this eve may get a ground frost.
On 08 Dec 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Ron Greer .Yes i too have run the models and now they seemed to be suggesting what Piers says would happen I have Piers December forecast and again of course i am not saying what will happen.Quite Sunny in Bucks with the odd light shower a little cooler than yesterday but still Mild
On 08 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Christine Gaskill.. Reminds me of the madness about the glaciers on killamjaro. The co2ers were shrieking it's all to do with co2 then someone noticed all the trees ahd been felled so they replanted them and hey presto the glaciers began growing back again despite the increases in co2. The co2ers keep that story quiet.
On 08 Dec 2015, Phil sub nov oct dec Ipswich wrote:
Corbett Report discusses "What Is The Average Global Temperature?"
Add a bit here, subtract a bit there, oh look, it's rising.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eL-HyviLy6c
On 08 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS charts, now reflecting some of your thoughts, Piers. You've been right on track now for more than 3 months.
On 08 Dec 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
I thought this article about how the flooding could be prevented was very good: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/flooding-public-spending-britain-europe-policies-homes
On 08 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Temp has dropped by half to 6 deg now at lunch time following a milder temp of 12 deg showers + wind started at midday after a sunny morning feels cooler...
On 08 Dec 2015, jazznick wrote:
Well said Fred. I thought is was me but it truly is 'cobblers'. She could come flat out and say the IPCC state AGW causes severe weather.........but they don't, so she can't ! She is using her position to float her wishful thinking.
A swerve, and stall, in the low tracking Jetstream caused this storm to stop and dump it's load in one place.
Blaming this on CO2 is barmy - Piers, a simple restatement by you is needed to restore some sanity over jetstream movements and causes..
The MO's version is that the jet stream reacts to weather elsewhere - which is pathetic. The old weather-causes-weather routine.
On 08 Dec 2015, Graham (sub. east midlands) wrote:
Piers no 30day full detail forecast, am I missing something ? Daffodils shooting up about an inch in the front boarders they may be in for a shock ?
On 08 Dec 2015, Fred wrote:
Quote from Chief Scientist of MetO Julian SLIGO "Is it to do with climate change? There can’t yet be a definitive answer but we know that all the evidence from fundamental physics and what we understand about our weather patterns, that there is potentially a role.’
Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/07/uk-weather-climate-change-blamed-for-devastating-desmond-floods-5550872/#ixzz3tid1P9V8
So ALL THE EVIDENCE from fundamental physics and Climate Change POTENTIALLY played a role. How scientific is that? About as scientific as the CO2 warming the wqorld beyond control NONSENSE. Folks read the quote again and again and again....It is complete and utter rubbish
On 07 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, overcast with a S’ly breeze which increased steadily as the day went on, rain from 10 - 14hrs, dry spell in between, wet again by night. Temps also going up, 10˚ by 10pm, feeling very mild. == Regarding the December forecast so far, that first period of 1-6 Dec has been pretty much on cue, plenty rain & snow further west + gales, we got away lightly this time.
On 07 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
It is day 7 of the december forecast and I am too warm, yes right on cue. I left the outside light on by accident and have been thinking about a job I need to do at the back tomorrow. I went out to turn the light off and could see everywhere, it was warm so I went out and did the outside jobs that needed doing. Am I the only one who doesn`t like this warmth? 19.35 it is 12.5 degrees, not a breath of wind, humidity is 92%. It is what I would say is uncomfortable weather, for me anyway. Oh yes allotment weeds have taken over after very many days of weed clearing this year. Lenten rose is in flower and so are roses
On 07 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
BBC been pumping all day that this flooding is co2 and that it was 'predicted'. No challenge is allowed. Total bias of bbc
On 07 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Also the climate change article in the Irish Examiner today also happened to state someting along the lines of scientists can only guess? Lol that's helpful then!-)
On 07 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
I agree Carl, Bandon in Co Cork have had their Business and local property destroyed by the recent flooding to name one of many places hit this weekend, they have been waiting 6 years for the flood relief scheme to be implemented since the last big flooding in 2009, many have suffered due to no insurance pay out as they were paid out 6 yrs ago and are disconcerted at how nothing has been done, despite €10 million sat there waiting to implement plans that should have made a difference, then they also have in the paper how Ireland will have to do more to combat climate change! Wind back to ssw'ly 12 deg and still raining at 6.30 pm
On 07 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
apparently the last time Malham cove waterfall happened was the last mini ice age lol http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-35026529
On 07 Dec 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Firstly my thoughts are with the people flooded in N.W and i think the man made climate change bandwagon will up the tempo after this.Firstly it was considerably worse than MetO forecasted even 12 hours ahead and it came in Piers R4 period and another point is although we have not seen snow in South it was exceptionaly Mild in South today bang on Piers December forecast.Also the stormy winter that bought floods down here in 2013/14 were i think as a result of a lack of drainage maintenance so it is now a question of the floods NOT being caused by what man puts up there!!! but what man has NOT done down there!!!
On 07 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
It may have been a mild 13 deg here today with high humidity present but it's not been nice here at all, wind has been blowin a hoolie all day with gusts rattling the roof at times & this afternoon has switched from S'ly to SSE'ly making it feel a little cooler than earlier though still mild for Dec. lots more rain all day falling on already saturated ground, my snow boots coming in handy for getting about the soggy garden just need a fishermans coat now lol!-)
On 07 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
gav vids shows that upper air in artic is near record cold at way below average. At 3.15m into the vid is the chart https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95vdl174oEA
On 07 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
agree david was nice posting today a warm 14 deg tee shirt n shorts and i was actually still sweating ,i know its prob the calm b4 the storm but ill take that for now even tho i love the snow
On 07 Dec 2015, David Parsons wrote:
Intense rainfall over Cumbria and other areas during the weekend had nothing to do with solar activity. It was a function of orography, wind speed and air mass moisture content which is summed up by standard meteorology as orographic enhancement. Associated with a tropical maritime air mass NOT returning polar maritime air mass. Identified in standard met forecasts and timely warnings issued.
On 07 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,U.K., sub wrote:
Gerry the farmers of old had a saying which is quite correct, as the light gets longer The cold gets stronger and I have seen this in the early morning so I can attest to it as fact. Oh and I was not sleepwalking at the time, this morning at 5am it was 13c warm or what, dull and drizzle so far, this at 7.35 ish.
Have a nice day.
On 07 Dec 2015, Bob Weber, Michigan subscriber wrote:
It was high TSI in 2015! In order, from http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/tss/sorce_tsi_24hr.csv - 2015, 1361.4512; 2014, 1361.3966; 2013, 1361.3587; 2012, 1361.2413; 2011, 1361.0752; 2003, 1361.0262; 2004, 1360.9192; 2010, 1360.8027; 2005, 1360.7518; 2006, 1360.6735; 2007, 1360.5710; 2009, 1360.5565; 2008, 1360.5382. TSI was higher for Oct & Nov than Sep, driving Nov/Dec temps upward: Sep, 1361.1063; Oct, 1361.3139; Nov, 1361.3688. 2012@120sfu=1361.2413. http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png, and
https://oz4caster.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/figure-2-global-temperature-anomaly-update-2014-2015-nov-um.gif 2016 will NOT be a record year as there will be no long outstanding solar cycle TSI peak like Feb 2015. Enjoy it while lasts, solar minimum is on the way. It took 6-7 years for TSI to drop to it’s 2008 low, w/UAH & SST too, http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2015_v6.png
On 06 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Tony - i do agree more explanations are needed at times, especially if the high/ low pressure systems are not where forecasted. Piers does not use models or offer a short range forecast, so we shouldn't expect a change in the forecast but more info on what has caused his SLAT to deviate would be nice.
I often believe the SLAT underestimates the Euro High this time of Year, hence the cold/snow/jetsream does make it as far south as predicted.
On 06 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast start but soon clearing up to a lovely sunny day, max temp no more than 5˚ though with the obligat SW’ly wind, clear evening, 1˚ at 10.30pm, frost on the car roof. We still have some hollyhocks in flower on the south wall of a wooden shed, haven’t seen that for a while.
On 06 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Met here had yellow wind warning up for tomorrow 7th issued earlier then took it down then issued it again at 9 pm U stands for uncertain here lol !-)
On 06 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Noticed it felt cooler this morn. Max temp 10 deg today but felt cooler, some sunny spells wahay and no rain :) until some light sleety rain this eve. for a short time, 6 deg now at 21.30 pm but again feels cooler, light ese breeze.
On 06 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Steve/Dorset - lol, good suggestion but no. A drizzle started and then some light rain and it has remained until after sunset. Not what the Met forecast but then who would be surprised. With the flooding in Cumbria the 'U' word is making frequent appearances and a record is being claimed. It will be interesting to see what those who have access to the records make of it given the differences between the UK rainfall records and the England & Wales one which goes further back. I am always sceptical of the use of 'unprecedented' as research often shows it to be no such thing - just not in people's lifetime.
On 06 Dec 2015, Eric wrote:
Piers appearance on the ring with andrew marred:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_Ae4DES9z8
On 06 Dec 2015, Ole Jensen wrote:
I´m not sure whether this video is funny or frightening.
Judge for yourselve :
http://captiongenerator.com/72273/Hitler-Climate-of-fear
On 06 Dec 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Best explanation of CO2 effect on our climate I have seen so far in easy to understand language
http://bloggingnetworkonline.com/keepitreal/a-simple-analysis-to-quickly-settle-the-agw-climate-change-debate/
On 06 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
thanks david for your explanation ........perhaps i do look at my own area but that is why i purchase the forecasts maybe just as a suggestion piers could broaden the areas more ie maybe 1 or 2 counties together so a to be a bit more precise i know this is not easy what he trys to do ....also maybe if things are not going well give us subs explanation and new scenarios ... just a thought
On 06 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Gerry.....Sleep walking may be the explanation,
On 06 Dec 2015, linda wrote:
Just watched a clip interview with Andrew Neil ...i get so angry when the brainwashed dont get it about the climate Change lies....and have to praise you for keeping your cool with Andrew Neil ..cant stand the man ..and his bullish approach...and hes from my home town .......
On 06 Dec 2015, Jason (Gloucester) wrote:
Geraniums still flowering, roses still blooming (a little less than usual seasonal flowering)...... Dull, damp and hovering around 12 degrees.
Would be interested if anyone who could recommend a decent non-warmist freak website to download weather station info to......
On 06 Dec 2015, Mark from London wrote:
Cumbria has had terrible flooding. as in 2009. Then uk had a wet mild november that carried on into December, but the weathet became colder particularly in Januaty. WITH SNOW events even in the south. Change could be on the way??
On 06 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
interesting occurrence last week. It had been wet and cloudy the evening before but the morning was clear and the sun looking to appear at some point. I was going through my morning routine when I heard the sound of scraping. I realised it was my neighbour clearing their windscreen so I thought I would step outside in PJs and dressing gown and spray some de-icer on the windscreen to work while I got dressed and ready. On seeing the windscreen and rubbing my fingers across it, there was no ice; only moisture so I went back in. No more than 20 minutes later I came out, got in my van, put the wipers on to clear the screen and it was ice! Anyone else experienced this?
On 06 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Tony, as i understand it an El Nino gives a lot of storm systems to the west of the USA because of the position of the pacific jet stream, this in turn gives above average temps to the eastern side and well below snow totals. This happened in 97/98 in the states during the El Nino which is very simular in strength and position to the current one.
I based my prediction of a mild and wet first half of winter on the El Nino, because of where the Jet Steam would be this side of the atlantic. This of course could flip the other way very quickly.
In regards to the forecast from Piers, i think sometimes people look at there own region too much (guilty myself) and not the overall picture/sypnotics. I would say it is not INCORRECT so far but nor is it SPOT ON either.
The winds here did not seem to be 70mph last night (more like 50) as predicted by BBC, but no suprise there.
On 06 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
SE has missed the heavy rain. There have been some showers over the last few days but some sunny spells too. Rain overnight and there was a glimpse of sun earlier but grey now and windy. Windy yesterday too - half expecting the remaining eucalyptus trunk to come down. Office comment - least amount of sun in November for a long time (didn't get exact time). We are seeing what Piers predicted for LIA - wildly fluctuating weather as if Buffalo NY has no snow, further west they are setting records. Reykjavik set a record too. Meridional jetstream moving weather systems up and down and not across as we are used to. Steve/Essex - interesting work on temp trends. A lot of people suspect they are 'hiding the decline' as they say by fiddling the records to show warming. 2 sunspot regions have come round to save the disc from going blank. SFU below 100 for the last few days. Channel 4 had a polar bear scare prog on last night - doubt it was worth watching.
On 06 Dec 2015, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & All, Just watched Piers on This Week show, I realise his time allotted was limited, but it was disappointing. In my experience explaining this complicated subject is to keep the facts simple & straight. For example the miniscule amount of man made CO2, I always pose the question how much CO2 is made by mankind, is it 5%, 10% or 20%? it is amazing most people pick 20%. Also state the climate history of our planet. The 97% figure of scientists that agree with AGW was initiated by a student for a masters degree, using 10,257 scientists as a sample, but only 77 were bona fide climate scientists.As Piers has always stated where is the scientific evidence? ,To quote Patrick Moore,If there was proof of AGW thro' testing & replication it would have been written down for all to see.
On 06 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
ive been reading that buffalo usa has had no snow so far in dec breaking a 116 yr record of the latest ever fall is this the result of the jet stream ??? it seems parts of the world are breaking records for cold , snow warmth and lack of cold /snow is this also the el nino affect ????
On 06 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
I quite agree with piers he was bang on, cold in north mild down south 1 to 6 as you can see north had snow gales and mush, we soft southerners had it mild with some gales, spot on and I am not giving anything away as the period I am commenting on has now passed.
On 06 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
I had to laugh out loud when I saw piers had been on the leftist BBC, before his brother became notorious in the Labour Party he would not have been given house room, to me it just showed how biased the BBC have become, it has been mild and windy here over night, sunshine now with a temp of 13 c at 8.20 Sunday morning, if this keeps up it will shorten the winter that's for sure, even the geraniums are still frost free here at 230 ft. Keep the co2 ers happy clappey.
On 06 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Continuation of wind and rain today ( 5th ) wind dropped off for a while then peaked a little again around 5 pm ish, now a little more in the background than last night, a longer duration but still not as gusty as Barney only using the name as a ref. point, as there has been a few storms as I think Piers said there would be in the lead up to Christmas, still raining and around 12 deg with high humidity at 2.06 a.m 6th.. Read somewhere sunshine hours were low in November despite the milder weather..
On 05 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, hardly any wind, nor rain, while the rest of Scotland was getting a drooking big time. A bit more SW’ly wind by afternoon, and very light drizzle from about 2pm. We went up South Deeside and were amazed at the amount of flooding, very weird when we’ve had no rain to speak of, so the water all comes from further west where it hasn’t stopped raining all day. Temps rising during the day, a remarkable 12˚ at 9pm here. Not unprecedented though, seen this many times before and agree with Shaun that Jan/Feb tends to be the coldest most years.
On 05 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
to those with an axe to grind. what was MetO saying 40 days ago for this period?
On 05 Dec 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
CITIZENS! Whats going on? I detect 'Start-Winter-Anxiety-Syndrome' - SWAS and a bit of TROLL activity. Remember to assess a forecast you must first read it and second wait to the end of the forecast period before full judgement. Interim comments can be inaccurate - as some have already noticed for this period. Now we are on 5th for the first period 1-6th+/-1d, I can say that development has been very much on the lines TO THE DAY of the forecast produced 21 OCTOBER = 44 days ago. GARRY I dont follow. The forecast says. "...iincreasingly cold. gales /sev gales" CONFIRMED. Blizzards later in North at least - LOOKS RIGHT SEE BY END OF PERIOD. "Deep Low North of Scotland" CONFIRMED. In fact pretty well everything said looks correct or likely to be so by 6th or 7th. Forecasts are not assessed by what they dont say. No mention of floods doesnt mean none. In fact stats of R4 periods under mobile / returning polar maritime as CORRECTLY FORECAST is high flood risk in parts of areas.
On 05 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
no one is going to give any clues re winter Istyvan and the others, so no point trying to bait us. The forecast for these days is spot on but you do need a degree of intelligence to interpret them wrt met o. They are not meant to be taken as gospel but more as a very reliable guide to potential
On 05 Dec 2015, Ian wrote:
Just a thought (and regardless of whether forecasts are on or off track - I don't currently subsribe but enjoy following the comments of all) - could it be possible that Asim and ors, by the approach and timing of their comments are seeking to draw subscribers into revealing the contents of forecasts where same contradicts a wet/mild/windy outlook?
On 05 Dec 2015, istvan ilyes wrote:
I also find that currant forcasts are in favor of the Global Warmistas. with the likes of Exacta and the Daily Express, I do not see a cold winter. I would agree with Asim and David. so far. I cannot see any change in our wind direction so far. and its in the wind direction that will make the real deference.. I firmly believe that there will be a typical mild winter. I stand by y point. Regards Istvan Ilyes Crawley west Sussex
On 05 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
re data- Despite 100 of millions in public funds Met O site doesn't seem to work that well especially given its to do with stats which one might think was their core job? .........As for people being trigger happy with forecasts I only wish we could opt out of Meto dreadful forecasts that are worse than random......
On 05 Dec 2015, Garry wrote:
Sorry but the forecast is far from spot on! No mention of the severe storm and flooding and it certainly is not cold! Disappointing.
On 05 Dec 2015, Rain Man (Inverclyde) wrote:
WE have now had one of the worst runs of weather I can ever remember. We have now had a month long period where the time raining can be measured in weeks and the time not raining measured in hours. It has the feel of an El Nino dominated pattern which I remember from the last strong El Nino but I thought this El Nino was meant to be weaker than a lot of observers wre making out. Travel in the district today best described as tortuous, roads like rivers as run off from saturated ground pours out everywhere. The view through my winscreen was like looking out from the bridge of a ship in a gale such was the volume of water being sprayed and splashed up combined with the rain.
On 05 Dec 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... we tend to have crappy winters as it is more difficult and less likely to deliver cold and snow country wide.
I feel Asim makes completely baseless assumptions about the winter, basing his claims on the most likely outcome, so when it is right he uses confirmation bias to convince himself he knows what he is talking about rather than being right by chance, while backing his claims with no cogent arguments, behaving troll like
On 05 Dec 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Shaun, I obviously didn't make myself as clear as I would have liked. I'm agreeing with you. I see essentially no data from end May to mid July. That's why it plots long straight lines and gives you an error message if you try to plot a graph for a short period within that time frame. I suspect the MO pulls the data for the graph from an intermediate database which they have loaded either directly from their station data or some other database using a batch process which has failed on one or more batches. I also see only recent data from some local non-official sites which I know keep much longer records. Best to contact the MO though and let them explain. I can guess at best.
On 05 Dec 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Ron, Asim behaves like a Troll, he pretty much repeats the same nonsense every year, he comes to this forum and says very early that winter is going to be mild and zonal despite being ridiculously early and has yet to share his insider knowledge.
Although to highlight the absurdity of his claims I would have to point out that astronomical winter has not started yet, it starts on the 21st of December, making his claims weeks before the season has began, I think it is relevant to point it out as the weather we experienced is influenced by these astronomical factors.
meteorological winter starts on the 1st but I thought that was simply for ease of comparisons? However, considering these comparisons, Asim is making such claims despite the fact we already know on average winter usually delivers the coldest conditions in Jan & Feb so he really is jumping the gun in that respect.
It is typical of wish casting, and betting on the most likely outcome. As the unique nature of our count
On 05 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
spot on here, wow, am amazed at the accuracy yet again, when it all looked doomed I never doubted the forecast would come in as seen.
On 05 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Christine and Dave: note that I asked Asim and Paul a question, not made an accusation. Note also they did not engage with my other comments in any way. Yes indeed it's only 5 days into official winter, but here we are with Asim and Paul making predictions for the whole of it. Do they have another predictive model better than SLAT12B? Let's here more about it then Serious flooding here locally with people being evacuated from their homes and rail service disrupted.
On 05 Dec 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... and the published so they should have the same issue, but they did not, which is what I think you have done, you have opened the website ad picked a station at random and not filtered 'official stations' so you picked a private station as there are far more of
them and got an full graph.
If you go back too far you dont get a read out but that is logical as it would be bad practice to store all data indefinitely. I was loading the graph from March to the present time.
You can usually identify the official stations as they are the only ones usually given a 5 start ranking. Maybe if you could share a station number for a graph that worked I could check how it loads for me
On 05 Dec 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Hi Nick,
Did you make sure to filter by Official Stations? Because I have the same issue on different devices, via different internet connections, using different browsers etc.
Considering the variety of access and checking multiple stations I would expect any loading errors to be randomly spread and not a predictable constant. Also that section of the graph wouldn't pose any more of a challenge computationally so again I would expect the error to happen across different months on different attempts to view the same graph and different graphs.
I know some of the options do not load but I believe that is because programming is easier sometimes to use a generic set of options, especially considering how many stations exist in the UK, so some stations simply do not have the required sensing equipment for those other options on the graph.
Also, if it was a loading issue it would have to happen on the private station read outs too, as the private data is loaded onto WOW MO serv
On 05 Dec 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
Patrick. There are plugins for the browser that will mypass that or anonymise web sites. For guaranteed success use Tor browser
On 05 Dec 2015, Bluetriangle wrote:
Just read an interesting page about the so-called climate change. www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html . It's a devastating critique of the global warming argument and essentially confirms everything Piers Corbyn has been saying here. It's not an 'authoritative source', so the big guns would scoff at it, but they obviously know what they're talking about. With a few pertinent facts and selected quotes they completely destroy the entire argument and expose its proponents as manipulative social engineers and opportunists.
On 05 Dec 2015, Patrick Martin wrote:
Hi Piers,
Your December forecast so far is spot on for the UK.
I'd love to see your 3 December BBC appearance but the BBC blocks overseas viewers form accessing the show.
Can you get someone to post an unblocked recording for the rest of us to access.
Thank you.
On 05 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Non stop rain and wind since after 3 pm only a yellow warning for both here in Leinster but sounds lovely listening to the sound of it out there, maybe not so nice for others red warning for the west where they have power lines & trees down and lots of flooding going on, orange warning for other parts of the country, some flight disruptions in Dublin and Cork, a mild 10 deg. with high humidity now at 12.41 a.m...off outside for a look see as has been fairly constant all night but sounds like its increased a bit more now...
On 04 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, grass frost in the usual places, overcast and hardly any wind, it started up only around 1pm from the SW and got stronger as the afternoon wore on, max temp 7˚ and no sun whatsoever. Well, little did I know that we would have 9˚ at 11pm, remarkable but not totally unusual. We still had a yellow wind warning at 5pm, but max gusts forecast are of the order of 50mph, neither snow nor rain forecast for our locality, though there was a bit of rain early evening. On the radar it looks amazingly wet further west.
On 04 Dec 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Shaun, It looks like a data loading problem (at the MO end) to me. I tried one station and was able to reproduce your graph over the same time frame. However, when I tried to plot just one month within the 'problem' time period I got an error message saying there wasn't enough data to plot. Same with parameters other than temperature. I suggest you query it with the MO.
On 04 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
A lovely sunny day here with the temp 13 c , Now that is a nice day.
On 04 Dec 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Just watched this Week Piers
Nicely done
Just shows up the entrenched politics of the political parties Scared s*** less to even debate the subject
Credit to Andrew Neil to have you on, but still not letting you have full reign in the interview
97% of Scientists quote ... jeezzz I hope you updated him off camera or wasn't he interested ?
Useful having bro as a party leader, otherwise this might not have happened
So well done you & well done Andrew Neil for having a backbone
On 04 Dec 2015, shaun wrote:
A picture of a few different stations, the odd section of the graph is consistent regarding the months and the stations being the MO official stations, I have not seen the same issue on private users stations. The picture below has stations from England, Wale, NIreland and Scotland and is consistent, I have not yet found one official station without this odd section.
It just seems odd for all stations to have the same issue at the same time and with a very similar pattern on the graph
https://41.media.tumblr.com/777d4468b34dad2fe37ed9298b560aaf/tumblr_nyueiqha1C1tj5kkho1_1280.jpg
On 04 Dec 2015, shaun wrote:
I have been using the http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk site to observe data from the MO weather stations, using the filter to see the MO official stations I then proceed to check out graph views for the temperature readings over the whole year.
As you would expect you get your standard temperature graph. However, all of the randomly chosen official stations displayed an odd pattern on their graphs, at first I assumed it was just some kind of error but as it appeared on every station I checked I thought it was odd. Below is a link to a screen shot of one such temperature graph.
Can anyone explain this graph to me? why you have the typical oscillations but then Between May and about August it no longer fits the typical pattern. What may cause this to happen
https://40.media.tumblr.com/f9b511d5e81db7638d1434dd1e79d54a/tumblr_nyud3sRDX51tj5kkho1_1280.jpg
On 04 Dec 2015, Mark wrote:
Inch of snow last night, 03/12, Bathgate, West Lothian, Scotland. Bitterly cold it was.
On 04 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Winds currently Beaufort Force 7 on west coast of Ireland, spreading east rapidly, accompanied by heavy rain from the NW. 528 dam line spreading SE behind this storm over the next few days bringing the threat of snow to lower levels across the N & W of the UK, possibly sleet further south later.
On 04 Dec 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
just for the record, has been blustery windy and last night periods of lashing rain. So far so good re the dec forecast
On 04 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
ALISTAIR - it is simply an area of low pressure in the pole. Once it becomes weaker and waivy it gets displaced. The cause of this us debatable. SSW, solar wind and warming in the pole are all thought to be factors. SOLAR activity causes SSW so piers has the best answer for that.
In layman's terms you just need a couple of high pressures in its way and the cold floods south. It is normally displaced in January/February
On 04 Dec 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Piers on This Week. How times have changed. Quite short but better than nothing. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06rjqh1/this-week-byelection-special
On 04 Dec 2015, Alistair wrote:
As I stated in an earlier post, I have recently purchased the December forecast mostly for travel purposes and although as yet the first few days of that forecast haven't gone as predicted, I do realise that it is still very difficult for anyone including Piers to get it 100% correct every time, I'm sure he would be the first to admit he is still learning about what is one of mankind's greatest challenges i.e. the weather and all its technicalities.
With regards to weather forecasting, I myself am an absolute novice but, I enjoy reading the comments and attempting to understand the various charts etc. One aspect of the weather that I have come across in one or two recent posts is the PV, now as I understand it the PV is currently strong and needs to be displaced to allow any kind of real blocking, which brings me to ask this question of the more knowledgeable people on here, are there any signs of it shifting and how can you tell?.
On 04 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi. I love the way that mild / warm starts to winter always trigger off civil war on weather forums, wherever I go. Sadly that disease has spread to WeatherAction, so people are tearing chunks out of each other. For snow lovers I would say this - keep an eye on around 15/16th December onwards when a major pattern change is being hinted at by the GFS model. It's goodbye SW'lies and hello raging NE>N'lies. For the warmists I would say this - Yes we've had an extremely mild November and start to December, yes the 1st-4th is mild but if you don't subscribe then please don't pass judgement. If you do subscribe then please reserve judgement until the end of the month. After all, Piers aims for 75% accuracy, not 100%. Keep the peace please people, there's enough blood being shed in the world over far more serious matters.
On 04 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Forecast is off track for first period. I also believe the first half of winter will be mild, as I have previously stated and commented on the mild October and November.
ASIM do you purchase any forecasts to cast your judgement on? RON I think calling people warmest trolls is a bit OTT.
it is only the 4th so plenty of time for change later
in the Month people. It would appear I big shift is needed though.
On 04 Dec 2015, Bluetriangle wrote:
We had an inch of snow last night in Livingston, West Lothian, our second covering of the winter so far.
I saw Piers on The Late Show last night. I liked his presentation and thought he coped well with the questions from Neil, et al. It's always tough swimming against the tide.
On 03 Dec 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
I don't think people should be called "warmist trolls" for giving their opinions and observations. The weather here in the South is very mild for December and isn't following the forecast at the moment, talking about that isn't wrong. The terms "warmist" and "deniers" are more in line with religious intolerance than scientific debate in my view.
On 03 Dec 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
After the beautiful sunshine yesterday, another mild day here in the Chilterns, although cloudy with the wind rising this evening today.
On 03 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, back to November again, max temp 4˚, grey all day with a SW-W’ly wind, light rain for a couple of hours in the evening, 3˚ at 10pm. MO yellow wind warning for us from tomorrow midday. == For all critics: even Piers doesn’t get it right every time; if things shift a few hundred miles N or S, very often the predictions still apply but not over our small bit of the world. I think it was Richard Midlands who worked out the Piers has an accuracy rate of about 65% if memory serves, and from a long time out - that’s way better than the MObeeb can ever hope to reach just from 5 days ahead. Horses for courses, Piers’ forecasts are not the same as the MO’s local & short term f’casts.
On 03 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Asim who? Paul who? and from where? Paddy, others and myself have the guts to put our names and places where our mouths are, what about you guys? What were the standard weather models predicting 30, 75 days or 6 months out?
On 03 Dec 2015, Sandy Reid wrote:
Very heavy rain this evening. from Preston to the border
Then a sudden temp drop from 7c to 0c as I drove over the border then heavy snow from Moffat to Lesmahago
NOT What MO predicted this morning
The Tay is very high and still rising
Normal and nothing unusual at this time of year
Not unusual for MO to be a bit off ...and naming winter storms....... as we say up here FFS Gie me peace. What a shower of pansies
On 03 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
ASIM/PAUL: are you professional meteorologists or warmist trolls?
On 03 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Lots of rain some extra cold and sleety, rain continued all day, a good bit of flooding in places on the back roads, made worse by bad ditching, max temp 6 / 5 deg felt cooler, dropped to 3 after lunch time back to 4 deg now and partly cloudy at 7.30 pm looks like temp is going to bounce up n down a bit more before getting milder overnight, also looks like more wind and rain incoming Friday into Saturday, a week ago Met Orafice here had it being dry this next Saturday...
On 03 Dec 2015, Asim wrote:
I did say that it was going to be a mild winter all a long. The polar vortex is way to strong.. Needs to be shifted if you want cold winter and cold. Anyways just like Last winter and probably for the foreseble future. These UK winters are becoming pretty easy to predict as normally there westerly driven. What happened to mini ice age? I'm confused?? And what's happening to the forecast ??
On 03 Dec 2015, Paul wrote:
Looks like this winter is going to be mainly zonal with westerlies. The stratosphere is very cold with no sign of sudden stratospheric warming. Looks like a memorably mild winter.
On 03 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
MICHAEL: GFS has more twist turns and drop-downs than a game of Snakes& Ladders--beware: DAVID ROWE: try googling 'Research at El'Gygytgyn' reported on youtube by Dr.Julie Brigham Grette. ASIM: At school geography I was taught about the 'Tees-Exe Line. If you draw a lime between the estuary of the River Tees in the north east of England and that of the River Exe in the south west of England, you will find on each side of it, two quite different sets of geo-botanical, bioclimatic and phyto-geographical parameters in operation. By and large this often coincides with different regional weather patterns for the UK as a whole.
On 03 Dec 2015, Mike (45d subs) wrote:
Piers I have given up with my December Weather Action forecasts (70, 45, 30, any day).Tthey are not reflecting weather reality on the ground in London and SE England. It is so warm and mild and no sign of cold, frost, ice, snow or indeed winter any time soon!
On 03 Dec 2015, Michael wrote:
(all winter sub) I think we're due a 30d Dec update. 75d ahead is not playing out for my region (yorkshire). GFS building high pressure when PC says so and cold snap looking likely from mid-month so PC forecast should be back on track?? Lets see.... Just PRAYING for SNOW on XMAS DAY.
On 03 Dec 2015, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & All, Just had to tell this one, Listening to Radio 5 live this morning at 3:45am (I suffer from insomnia), there is a phone in programme for scientific questions answered by an Australian calling himself Dr.Karl. A listener asked is there going to be any more ice ages? Dr. Karl replied that ice ages are cyclical occurring over thousands of years etc. but he inferred because of the vast increase in human population causing a rise in CO2 the next ice age would be doubtful. I nearly fell out of bed laughing, but this being the BBC his answer went unchallenged. As a matter of interest does anyone know the CO2 levels during the last ice age? Piers, are you really appearing with Andrew Neil today, I do hope so if true.
Regards, Dave Rowe,Wirral
On 03 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
sharp frost this morning, just in time to save the last vestiges of Tuesday's snowmen. Large areas of snow still left above 600metres despite yesterdays' rapid thaw. Last few days remind me of Dec 2007. ASIM: the UK comprises everything between the Shetlands and the Scilly Isles--it is not climatically homogenous.
On 03 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Mild start yesterday & cooler end to the day, 6/7 deg and lots of rain this morn.
On 02 Dec 2015, Asim wrote:
What I want to know where is winter gone in the UK??
On 02 Dec 2015, tony wrote:
not a good start in my area for the forecast been quite warm today shorts n t shirt for this postie ,will the change happen ????can 1 of the experts on here perhaps tell me why the forecast is way off .......this is not a knocking session of piers i would just like to understand what has made it so opposite thx for any help
On 02 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Mild and clear start, 9˚C at 7.30 and rising to 12˚, which is quite something for early December, lovely sunny day with a blustery SW’ly wind (Forth Road Bridge was closed to high-sideds) which abated as the day wore on, by 3pm it started cooling and was only 2˚ by 6pm, the dominating Lows moving NE-wards and introducing colder Arctic air. == It may interest you that the arch villain of the IPCC and chief hijacker of the environmental movement, Maurice Strong, has died. Corbett does a good 20 min piece on him here https://www.corbettreport.com/ top of the home page or here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5ZgR_-SO8U He was very influential but kept himself in the background, a grey eminence; it pays to familiarise oneself with the real players.
On 02 Dec 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
Just completed some rudimentary analysis of daytime temperature changes between 2002 - 15 for my SW corner of Essex. Summer and Autumn are seeing the biggest declines, with late Winter also showing a smaller decline; Jan - Down 1c on average 2002-15, Feb down 1c, March down 1c, Apr down 1.5c, May down 2c, June down 3c, July No Change (N/C), Aug down 2.5c, Sept down 1.5c, Oct down 0.5c, Nov & Dec N/C. So there you are - global warming...doesn't exist! At least not in the last 13 years anyway!
On 02 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
The solar disc on spaceweather is showing just 2 numbered sunspots and a count of only 27. Unless there is something to come from round the other side could a zero occur? Rain and some heavy early this morning. Just spitting on the way to work then dry in London.
On 02 Dec 2015, Steve Devine (Moderator) wrote:
Hi. For those enquiring about the 30d Dec forecast, I have been asked by Piers to state the following; "The December forecast is uploaded, albeit currently in the 45 day format (i.e. minus graph slide). Updates to follow shortly." Piers will be appearing on the Andrew Neil Show tomorrow, if anyone is interested.
On 02 Dec 2015, steven wright wrote:
im dreaming of a white christmas just like the ones i used to know where the tree tops glisten and children listen to hear sleigh bells in the snow sorry i know this website about the weather not singing songs and reading about syria i came across weatheraction a couple of years ago because of the weather NOT because of syria or any other political agenda
On 02 Dec 2015, steven wright wrote:
december weather forecast looks very interesting without trying to give the game away i hope it is right but with all this mild weather down south and a fairly lively atlantic its hard for me see that it will be like i said before i hope im wrong as i do like it when weatheraction predicts this sort of weather and it comes off
On 02 Dec 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Despite several attempts to contact WA, I still cannot access my forecasts. It appears I am not the only one, looking at the comments. I paid on the 29/11/2015?
On 02 Dec 2015, shaun wrote:
It is a bit early to say winter is warm 19 days before winter has even begun
On 02 Dec 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
What has happened to the winter this year it is so mild 13/14 this morning I am not complaining though but this weather is great for the outside. Actually saw the sun yesterday wondered what it was as it has been dull, dull, dull, for ages.
On 02 Dec 2015, Jan wrote:
Would like to know what has happened to my 30d sub which I purchased on 21st Nov for Dec.
On 02 Dec 2015, Mike wrote:
(Subscriber) Hi Piers
Any news on when the 30 day December forecast is going to be released?
Keep up the good work
Mike
On 01 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Milder today max 13 deg. Some welcome sunshine for a time and it was actually dry :) partly cloudy and 11 deg now at 10.45 pm light ssw'ly wind picking up a little too..
On 01 Dec 2015, Edmund wrote:
I have just learned that Zionist Cameron has called Corbyn, and I quote: 'a terrorist sympathiser' for not wanting to carpet bomb what's left of Syria. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not in any political camp on this as I refuse to vote because I think it all rigged anyway, personally. But, I mean, when you have maniacs on the loose like Cameron coming out with this sort of deranged mantra and frothing at the mouth for blood it makes you realise what maniacs are behind all this 'climate change' babble. Because, make no mistake, it's the very same characters behind all the immiseration, corruption, war and heartache going on around the world that are pushing this degenerate weather science. I have personally come to the conclusion that a 'carbon tax' needs to be introduced to fund their wars and butchery around the globe such is the scale of their genocidal policies.
On 01 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Winter gone, autumn back: 0˚C at 7.30, very icy and wintery. Rain by 10am, temps perceptibly rising, ending with 7˚ by 10pm. Wind SW’ly again, strengthening throughout the day, MO predict 11˚ for tomorrow. Piers’ present weather period is from 1-6 Dec, so I’ll wait till the 6th before I make a comment, though the snow we had was exactly as he said.
On 01 Dec 2015, Alistair wrote:
Having Just purchased for the very first time a one month subscription for the month of December and having been an observer of the Netweather forum for a while, it will now be
interesting to see how the two compare.
I must say after reading the netweather forum, that they change their minds and opinions so often at short notice even though they all have the same basic models at hand, plus, there are so many differing analogies that you are non the wiser by the time you have read them all, I believe some of them just see what they want to see due to their obvious
bias. I actually decided to purchased Piers forecast because of my forthcoming travelling arrangements over the December period and to see just how accurate it is. if his forecast for December is reliable i.e. more than around 75% accurate, I may well purchase more in the future.
On 01 Dec 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Less windy but with a drizzle in the air this morning. Has cleared to sunny spells and quite bright now. Normal temps for the time of year I would say.
On 01 Dec 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Dog & pony show.
On 01 Dec 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Winter wonderland scene this morning with several centimetres of new snow on a frozen base. Incoming mild spell as per standard models, will give some time to add further stocks of fuel. I see now Piers why the bookies would only give 3:1 on a White Xmas in Glasgow.
On 01 Dec 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Wet and windy start has been switching from mild to chilly with the wind all day wind lessened after lunch though, 7 deg at midnight and rain starting again now after a dryer interlude this eve. looks like milder and more rain later in the night.
On 30 Nov 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Great comments on the ongoing deadly and mendacious dog and pont show on the Welcome page, PIERS, bang on the nail! Only just looked at it.
On 30 Nov 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, overcast morning, bright from midday onwards with temp risning to 2˚, W’ly wind, looked like it was going to get much colder but then warmed up back to 2˚ by 9pm. According to MO it is going to rain tomorrow morning. == Preaching to the converted I know, but have a look at Corbett’s latest video debunking the great polar bear die-out here https://www.corbettreport.com/ top of home page. If you type ‘global warming’ in the seach field, he has done heaps of stuff on the swindle, to my mind always well researched and presented. It’s on the subject of CAGW that he was recommended to me by a friend, he also covers many other worthwhile topics.
On 30 Nov 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
Hi all just a quick comment on the gang at the global warmist jamboree, is it me or do they all look demented, could it be global warming to blame but I very much doubt that, must be the dishonesty getting to them. Windy mild and a bit damp here in dear ol Dorset. P.S. Don't forget the BBC will have a news cast every few minutes on the best little earner they have Eva had, Global Warming.
On 30 Nov 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
BLACK PEARL wrote: “Any one who could outright disprove the CO2 link”
I would say that would be both Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller, And I think Piers would agree with me on that.
On 30 Nov 2015, Edmund wrote:
Come-on then Piers, when are you going to speak up against this Geo-engineering and Nexrad weather modification which is blatantly going on, I simply cannot believe that you are unaware of it?
The people behind this heinous act are the same gangsters who lied about WMDs, murdered Dr. Kelly and pushing this 'Climate Change' clap-trap.
On 30 Nov 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Another blustery day. I look out half expecting to see the other half of my eucalyptus gone with the wind. Early rain stopped but grey and overcast. I think the London cranes are at a standstill and parked due to the wind. Re - climate change cash. Don't forget that the money raised by green taxes is poured down the throats of the willing recipients of renewable subsidies and will increasingly fund reemployment schemes and unemployment for heavy industry workers. Classic subsidy case - Shell bewailing dumping of carbon capture lunacy project at Peterhead. Saying it will cost lots of jobs (although save even more that would go from expensive energy) and that it is a big mistake and missed opportunity. However, no mention of Shell continuing this golden opportunity without taxpayers' cash. Hmm - can't be so good then. As a shareholder I nearly complained when they got involved in CCS as I could see exactly this happening.
On 30 Nov 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 29 Nov 2015, Carl 30d
Some good points made re fraud / FIFA comparisons
However Govt will never admit wrong doing as there is too much tax income riding on this
£42 billion in 2014 UK alone How do you replace that ?
Any one who could outright disprove the CO2 link would become a clear & present danger to Govt finances
Wouldnt be allowed & maybe even Dr.Kelly'ed
Climate Change .. will never be abandoned
On 30 Nov 2015, Geoff wrote:
Any other insomniacs catch the disgraceful Steven Nolan Show on R5 at midnight last b night? Nolan and some self satisfied 'radical' Bishop giving another guy a right bashing for questioning the Gospel according to Hadley (Hadleigh?)Bish really keen to come over as an outraged reasonable man. Non believers might question that but were too polite (or censored out by Beeb?) to say so. Usual Warmist cant-never ever so hot as now,Ice caps shrinking and flooding the Pacific, War in Syria down to ACC, CO2 running away as rainforests give up the struggle(against CO2?) , no Climate Gate, All Scientists Everywhere have Proved that CO2 Armageddon is upon us. Crying out for 5 minutes common sense from Piers, but no doubt the BBC wouldn't let him past the front door? JUst like the GobMobs that the younger greens seem to be staffing now that they have spent all their pocket money buying the Labour Party. Or will Jezza ride to the rescue...? (Don't hold your breff Bros- or has P heard different?)
On 29 Nov 2015, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
Woke to the wind and rain of the storm that rattled on and increased all morning into lunch time before easing to more blustery moderate wind and rain changing from heavy showers to more almost sleety cold showers, lots of homes without power due to outages around the country around 6000 by 11.30 a.m down to around 100 now this eve. I believe Barney caused 35,000 and I might be wrong but I'm guessing it packed a little more intensity than today although it was pretty stormy again today I felt previous storm stronger maybe? all quiet this eve. partly clear and around 4 deg. now at 10 pm
On 29 Nov 2015, B smith NE Wales wrote:
Not posted for some time , but still follow the best discussion forum for weather these days. My comment is this:This Autumn I have experienced several quite severe storms /gales this autumn starting with an un named mid October gale ,closing several roads in north Scotland. Simiarlyliketoday's gale .It is Currntlly gusting 85 mph in north Wales The recent ex hurricane pre Barney/ post Abigail A big Gail (wow) was one of the worst in these parts for some time. My opinion is that the met office haven't a clue , and only want to introduce this type namimg as a scaremongering excercise, ahead of the paris summit.The current observation here from NE Wales29th 1400 is that we ar in a warm humid southerly side of the jet stream being dramitacally sucked/ blown NE to drop out in the much colder Scottish air on the northern edge. It remindsme of late 70sandearly 80livining in Aberdeen area, plenty of snow even on a westerly wind!Update at 1530 todysstorm updated to "Claudia"so what
On 29 Nov 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Wind! Lots of it. Friday evening brought a heavy shower and the blustery winds during Saturday. A burst of rain early afternoon after the early blue sky rapidly disappeared. More rain overnight and today. Still windy. And there have been casualties of the wind. A friend visiting down the garden and said something's wrong. As we looked the big eucalyptus that gauges wind strength wasn't there. The tallest of the two trunks has collapsed and the remaining one is not too healthy. A small oak has come down as well. As to when, I pass my house on the train and was looking to see if my tree was visible given its height and saw it through the leafless trees on Friday, so between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. Maria Ire - you are lucky they allow a temp to be an hour - the Heathrow 'record' in July was just a few minutes but anything for the cause. Mail On Sunday has a pre-COP piece about lost steel jobs and the propaganda that will issue forth from tomorrow.
On 29 Nov 2015, furqaan wrote:
Hi piers I came to you talk on Friday I found it very useful thank you
Like ask one question this coming mini ice age food production will will be down how can we combat that thanks
On 29 Nov 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Sorry to come on again Piers could you just answer a question for me??? I know UKIP are against this whole climate religion Nigel Farage is quite clear on it but i get the feeling the DUP in Northern Ireland are against this!!!! too because i am not into Northern Ireland politics but i think they are the biggest political party in N.I
On 29 Nov 2015, Ben, Forres, Moray wrote:
I'm sure you've all seen the recent and ongoing media propaganda of hottest year ever etc LOOK AT THIS http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/getting-rid-of-received-ideas/..Personally for me it seems the global warming fraternity is as strong as ever. And what about the weather, well a typical late November wet, grey and cool, I can see snow on the moors to the south at about 200m asl, just raining here - miserable
On 29 Nov 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
I fully echo Piers thought of the day there will be many brainwashed green leftists on the street today and as i echoed yesterday despite the BBC ranting on about it total silence from David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn on this issue and what was striking despite climate change trying to hijack the commonwealth conference was that it was not endorsed by David Cameron (or did i miss something) and there has even been a slight climb down from Barack Obama saying he does not want a legal binding document because he knows full well he would not get past congress (many republicans).In two or three years time i would not be surprised in the least the IPCC will end up like FIFA and have Fraud charges levied against them because it is clear they have fiddled the data to suit there needs and i think both David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn know this
On 29 Nov 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
ended up like a Xmas card scene, which added a very seasonal ambience to our annual Xmas market in the village. Really set off the village Xmas tree and lights too.
On 29 Nov 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Planting billions of extra trees is one of the easiest, cheapest and sustainable (long term too), answers to carbon capture, as the Warmings like to call it. Over the next 20 years as these carbon munching giant plants grow to maturity, the atmospheric CO2 levels should at least increase more slowly or even stop increasing. Plant enough trees and you could possibly reverse the upward trend. So if this is the case, why is this happening? >> http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/europe-s-biomass-boom-is-destroying-america-s-forests/article/450215 << ... Blatant, in your face contradictions from the word 'go'! ..... Butterflies in Novemer hahahahaha! Can't get over that! d:^)
On 29 Nov 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Just back after a couple of weeks on the south Cornwall coast. Apart from a chilly couple of days it's been unbelievably mild, yet the locals told us that it's always mild down there. We were in Polperro where a lady was pruning the shrubs at the end of her garden. I remarked that it looked surreal to see 4ft nettles and flowering hydrangeas in the last week of November. She said that they don't get a winter like the rest of the UK. Everything stops growing for a couple of months, then resumes growing, but everything doesn't just die back for 4 months like it does for us in Arctic Derbyshire. We saw wasps, butterflies, big bumble bees and in many sheltered spots the grass, weeds and shrubs looked as though it was still early September....amazing!
On 29 Nov 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
started off as rain this morning, now, just after 0900 hrs turning to wet snow, here at 140 metres. Very heavy and now starting to settle.
On 29 Nov 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter address wrote:
Hello - WELCOME TO EASIER ACCESS TO WeatherAction famous comments and Observations section from all you wise, imformed and objective readers and weather observers.
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