On 21 Dec 2015, Shidiq wrote:
It's much easier to unstrdeand when you put it that way!
On 04 Oct 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Very wild weather in parts of the South Island today https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/fierce-winds-in-the-south-island-annihilate-caravan-q13796. Not in our region fortunately but we've had very warm weather today. Spring is always the most changeable time in NZ and gale force north westerlies and south westerlies do the most damage.
On 03 Oct 2015, Susan wrote:
Yes Gerry. That is a very good idea as I would also welcome regular comment from Piers as events unfold.
On 03 Oct 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
A small housekeeping point - would it be possible for new comments pages to be started on a regular date? I would also welcome regular comments on the forecast unfolding by Piers at the head of the comments? Thoughts anyone?
On 03 Oct 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Well after all the fine weather this morning was damp, misty and still. The sun has yet to appear as the afternoon gets under way. Cloud must have come across overnight trapping the mist that forms over the fields here. The winds have been easterly for days as evidenced by flight paths to the airports. Good to see in the Redcar debate a clear statement that government policy to make electricity more expensive and hit businesses with carbon taxes is a main reason for the plant being uncompetitive. The warmists look like they have made a big mistake with their RICO20 letter. I thought the danger lay in the possibility of it being taken seriously and then argued out under oath in court. More simply - a la Al Capone and tax evasion - the spotlight has been shone on where the money went. The warmist blogs are staying silent but imagine the uproar if it was our side caught with their hands in the till. Big Oil claims still unproven.
On 02 Oct 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// blue skies daily for the last few weeks here in Channel Islands no rain but believe it's looming beginning of next week. Certainly can't complain at this Indian summer - it's going to be an interesting Winter so going to have to buy a forecast -
On 02 Oct 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Alister.... you are quite correct this is what we have, as I said it was professionally done to electrical good practice which is essential.
On 01 Oct 2015, Alister wrote:
Steve
Plugging a genny into your house via a socket is not good practice! The correct way is to have a 'break before make' switch after the meter, between your own supply and the grid, so there is no way you can electrocute anyone working on the grid during the outage.
On 01 Oct 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A continuation of fine autumn weather, misty starts sunny blue sky days with high cloud, clear cool nights max 17 deg with around 7 overnight, light south east breezes. Trees are really looking lovely now with their autumn colours. Just realised my 12 mth sub has ended, has been a great year of top quality forecasts that have helped me with the timing of veg and produced a good amount of food despite the wild contrasts in weather due to Piers advanced weather warnings, unfortunately I can't continue to subscribe at the mo as my partner really unwell in hosp. but I hope you don't mind if I continue to post the weather in this part of the world while I sort things out..
On 30 Sep 2015, Kay wrote:
Here in Glasgow, wall to wall sunshine. Feels like it's in the low 20s. Spot on with September forecast Piers!
On 30 Sep 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter address please follow) wrote:
YES CITIZENS, It was me at Brighton on TV in my brother's guest area at LP Conference Tuesday 29th in afternoon. Thanks for comms.
On 30 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
What a beautiful morning here in Dorset, temperature is 16c nice wall to wall blue sky a day to saviour here.
By the way this auto correct thingy makes me laugh, it has caused words to be changed into something I never said, I wonder if piers brother uses it . Said he with tongue in cheek.
On 30 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
watching the speech on tv i thought i saw piers ? who would have thought it a year ago
On 29 Sep 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Misty mornings ,with sunny afternoons 3 days in a row the only gloom here in Redcar is losing our steelworks of almost 100 years ,Founded by Dorman Long in 1917!
Piers was that you i saw clapping at Brighton to your brothers speech today good luck to both of you.
On 29 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Micheal
Well I have had ours for the last 15 years it is a Honda I think it is 3kva size, it is a petrol one it has 110 and 240 so it is versatile it runs my tools safely with the 110v and when I need it I connect it to the house system via a socket, I have an electrician friend who did the socket thingy so you would have to do the same and get it done professionally well worth the expense as it has kept us cosy when trees fell on the electric lines one February, we were out for at least 4 days. You need to site your generator outside so you don't get exhaust fumes anywhere near the house so some planning is essential, good luck do some research on the Internet, you can also get diesel ones to.
On 29 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Russ' big coronal hole from the last solar rotation triggered Typhoon Dujuan on 9/16... will it be back to deliver and sustain another disturbance that turns into a typhoon or hurricane in October? Studying SC23 declining phase activity, and seeing that big sunspots near solar equator sourced high flare activity, coupled with typical coronal hole action, was crucial to formation of some of the largest extreme weather events of 2004-06. Will we see similar activity in this solar cycle declining phase over the next months and years? As there's really nothing new under the sun, I'd say that yes, look for more of the same, but know that this time around the sun's magnetic (plasma) power is much less in this weaker cycle than in SC23, and so the force and power of the Sun-Earth connection now is comparably less. The sun in 2004 went six months under 104 sfu/day before a few rotations averaged ~150 sfu - so we have to realize that solar cycle declines are slow, intermittent & still potent.
On 29 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
TSI does anti-correlate with F10.7 often when looking at daily data, however, when smoothed, flux increases lead TSI increases EVERY time (you've gotta see that chart!). Large area sunspots that drive F10.7 up also compete for emission area that tends to drive TSI down- it's a trade-off. Very quiet recent R5 in terms of solar wind, but warm solar blast from higher SSN, Flux, & TSI reached up into the US where Piers had forecasted, "Quite warm", for mid US 9/25-27. Sun was brilliant two days ago at sunset as xray flux was high. Cool air entering N US tier states per forecast, but not enough for snow there yet, AFAIK. It snowed in Alaska a few days ago though. Only Miami and Vegas areas were just above 80F in the mornings in US recently, 10-40F cooler everywhere else. There's been no tornadoes or hail reported for the US by hail-reports.com for the last five days. Slow-moving rainy low pressure + front passed through Great Lakes area overnight confirming Piers' current forecast here.
On 29 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Daily TSI plot from LASP shows SORCE data as of one week ago http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png - the equivalent TSI to 120 F10.7 is about 1361.25, so you can see the sun has been oscillating above and below that line all summer. I made a mental note a week ago, asking myself after feeling the heat of the sun outside, is TSI up today? Yes it was, and I'm sure it was up since then too, as flux topped out at 135 this week with SSN at 154 a few days ago, now dropping as the big SS group rolls out to the edge of the earth-facing side. The USAF overshoots their 45day whenever something like this happens, as they bumped it up to 118 from 103, along with Oct, and 1/3 of Nov at 116. After a few days, when the SSN drops a lot, they'll go back down again with their forecast - never fails. Lots of C, M and S flares recently, along with higher xray flux in general driving F10.7 up and ocean action up. Downhill time now!
On 28 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Similar the last day or two, misty starts followed by sunshine and a good amount of blue sky, max 17 deg with sse'ly light breeze, coolish by night, can't believe I fell asleep for the eclipse.. doh!-)
On 28 Sep 2015, Michael wrote:
Steve,Dorset,UK,
Can you recommend a generator as I am considering installing a system.Thank you in advance.
On 28 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Blue skies again today but noting that with each morning the sun is that little bit later in arriving to burn off the overnight mist. Answering a call of nature at 3.45am I got to see a bit of the eclipse. Couldn't help but note the lack of moonlight either due to cloud or of course the eclipse. Had passed the full point so was some shadow and the rest reddish. Richard- the whole overseas aid is a joke considering the government runs at a loss every month so we are borrowing cash to give it away. We are not even close to balancing the books and stop growing the debt. Of course many people note that Cameron is not a conservative. The Call Me Dave expose book is hardly a surprise. Iceagenow reporting a lot of early snowfalls in parts. Interesting to see a surge in the sunspot numbers and solar flux - is this the last hurrah before it stays low?
On 28 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
cameron to spend billions of tax money to 'offset the effects of Western pollution on poorer nations.' The madness goes on costing us billions on lies. First the uk is not rich we are trillions in debt and any money has to be borrorwed from China who are rich and also the worst 'polluters'. 2nd cliamte change in an interglacial warming period is NATURAL otherwise we would still be under 1 mile of ice. The co2 jedi mind trick narrative is not a harmless sideshow but a parasite that sucks tax money away from other more useful policies such as housing. i keep hearing everyone saying the uk is rich? In what way is anyone in massive debt 'rich'? We dont talk of bankrupt people being 'rich' so they should pay out more?
On 28 Sep 2015, Allan wrote:
Chile 8.3 ...great going Piers.
Global Warming Glitch? Farmers in Otago, Southland, West Coast NZ reporting coldest wettest winter for a long time. Skifields doing great business.
On 27 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
What a shame that the super moon eclipse is in the early hours for us. Clear and chilly last night after a pleasant day. More of the same today but with a brisk breeze from an easterly direction. Black pearl - a casualty of our barmy government policy? The steel industry. With the Chinese slowdown the cost of steel has dropped and so the Redcar plant faces closure and other companies are seeking help to ensure that we have a steel industry left. A major cost of steelmaking? Electricity. With government policy making it more expensive and then adding 'carbon' taxes to industry it is no surprise that it becomes uneconomic for these global countries to manufacture here. Meanwhile from a good piece on WUWT Japan and China are investing in coal fired generation in Asia and Africa. A good place to move production to? Japan moved a lot of production decades ago but now China sees increasing costs as affluence grows.
On 27 Sep 2015, Geoff wrote:
'a large proportion of 'payroll' ngos and camp-followers with school children having a day-out to be brainwashed' as identified in Comment of 17 June, who seem to this observer anyway to bear a remarkable similarity to the 'sound bite' groupies seen cheering the Leader at Brighton.
I have little confidence that there will be any enthusiasm amongst the Faithful for anything other than uncritical endorsement of whatever 'nonsense in lipstick' emerges from Paris
On 26 Sep 2015, Geoff wrote:
Taking on the Papacy AND the collected wisdom of the teenyboppers with their £3 visitors passes must be pretty scary-are you sure that science is not a matter of majority opinion?
On 26 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Beautiful mist across the fields this morning should have reached for my camera would have made a nice pic, turned into a nice Autumn day with the sunshine, blue sky later max 17 quite warm to work in the garden, another pick of peas beans and some spuds dug up, getting some nice cauliflowers this ur too, flowers were very leggy this yr, chilly this eve with the se breeze 11 deg now out here at 7.30 pm
On 26 Sep 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Quote:
"On 25 Sep 2015, Simon wrote:
Looking forward to the first 'scientist' to tell us the reason why the planet hasn't been getting any warmer these past few years is all because of Volkswagen! 😄"
*************
Hah nice one
Once the FUNDING is in place THE REPORT no doubt will be done... :)
Piers current Pope / Obama headline V.Good
But you know what 'the system' isn't looking & doesn't want too look and they will continue to threaten us with these 'Witch Doctors' to continue the revenue flow & votes for as long as humanly possible
EG How else would they generate all these additional taxes to pay for the massive increase in the benefit system that occurred over the last few decades in the UK alone
£42 billion raised in emission taxes for UK alone last year
The lies will eventually rise to the top of the scum ... but when ? ... I'm getting tiered of waiting & paying
On 26 Sep 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
@ Leo NZ - Unusual for stuff.co.nz to publish an article that isn't written by a warmist. Note all the warmist comments after the artcle but some good replies by members of the NZ Climate Science Coalition.
On 25 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Really nice sunny day for the most part even felt a little warmer although reached the same 14/15 deg of previous days, warm enough to work in a T shirt for a while, clouded over later this afternoon but still a pleasant evening, still 12 deg & cloudy now around 9 pm wind direction switched from S'ly earlier to N'ly tonight but mostly still.
On 25 Sep 2015, ron greer wrote:
LEO: that'll be his career stuffed then.
On 25 Sep 2015, Leo (NZ) wrote:
Interesting article published on Stuff.co.nz.
Unusual for a NZ scientist to publish an article
contrary to establishment dogma.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/72074808/are-we-to-blame-for-climate-change--i-doubt-it
On 25 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Bob - thank you very much for the explanation and understood. Nothing will be better than them having to do a volte face on the warmest year on record but then since the records are fiddled the actual temperature isn't relevant. Question - who are the biggest crooks? VW for making cars that work for us albeit with a slight bit of manipulation or the green blob making false claims and falsifying data to suit? Which one has cost you more money?
On 25 Sep 2015, Simon wrote:
Looking forward to the first 'scientist' to tell us the reason why the planet hasn't been getting any warmer these past few years is all because of Volkswagen! 😄
On 25 Sep 2015, Steve Devine wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/ Mann and Rahmstorf declaring that despite 2015 being one of the hottest "in history", there is a growing blob of record cold water forming in the North Atlantic. The article itself is mind-numbingly worshipping Global Warming and could have been written in the dark ages of the 1990s. None of the content mentions the influence of a quiet sun, but it does hint that those worried about a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario should rest easy as the cold blob is "only a blip". Hmmm, Piers' 2007 - Date predictions of a Mini Ice Age says otherwise...I know who I'd rather believe, and it's not those in the article above!
On 25 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
dusting of snow on Ben Nevis and Cairngprms yesterday
On 24 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some showers this aft. Quite windy for a time also between 2 - 3 pm nw now very light W'ly, sent some more leaves to the ground, mostly clear and quite chilly 8/9 deg. this eve. 9.45pm
On 24 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
WUWT's Bob Tisdale does a great job explaining what's going on with SSTs, OHC, El Nino. However he did not mention the "blob" breaking down in the Pacific NW in his last report, and he didn't say anything about the NH & SH SSTs dropping in August. Based on what I've already said I think there will be several October surprises for everyone (but me). One of those surprises is how hot it ISN'T in the US and elsewhere. It's just a matter of time before those who haven't clued in yet will start to ask the serious question of WHY it isn't getting warmer. That is going to change very soon, before Paris. SSNs up yesterday @ 95, up 34 in 5 days, USAF 45d F10.7 & Ap up too, putting 2015 120 crossover point out just a few more days. With the last half of 2015 under 120, noticeable cooling will be in place by end of Nov if not sooner. The warmists are too DUMB & PROUD to understand they're wrong. The SUN will ultimately teach them that IT causes warming, cooling, and extreme weather events.
On 24 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Gerry- from my 9/13 comm "August HadSST3 tropical temps were high but at the same time, SSTs in both the NH and SH were COLDER than July. All three are complied monthly with a global average too (if you can look past the absurdity of a single 'global' temperature). The latest SST image put out every few days by NOAA here http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.21.2015.gif" LOOK at previous SST images from several months ago and compare to the latest. SEE that the SST heat intensity is less NOW than previous months. KNOW that the ocean is not warming BECAUSE the NH & SH SSTs did NOT increase in August, leaving only the tropics as the last place the warmth anomaly is still high, where the Nino regions are. As F10.7 has averaged below 120 for three months, and TSI has dropped like a rock since Feb 12, there has been INSUFFICIENT solar activity for ocean warming. Satellite vapor imagery also indicates far less ocean evaporation lately vs earlier. US temps are down too.
On 24 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Re - clouds. Crossing the river the other night I noticed a cloud effect on the Canary Wharf towers from the southerly wind. It gave them a sort of chimney effect. Cloud base was low so just on the top of them. cloud increased during the evening and it was grey and wet with a very heavy spell walking to the station this morning. Dry by the time I reached town and you could see the weather clearing from the NW. Sunny spells now. The diesel fiasco is quite funny and another Blair-Labour legacy. I own a diesel and would be quite happy to have another but not if I would be hit by taxes to correct the politicians' stupidity. Re- El Nino Bob could you expand on why you think it is fading as WUWT suggests it isn't?
On 24 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
The co2 religion and diesel is just the first of the global monumental blunders of the co2ers that has caused thousands of deaths per year to come out. The co2 cult is driven by greed and dogma. The deep ecologists admit openly they want mankind wiped out. How can it be that people knew for years the problems of diesil and nothing done to protect the public? Why do we have the worst regulations in the world for something called DIE -sil.
On 24 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Yesterday a mix of blue sky cloud and...sunshine :) Max 14 deg. 8/ 9 overnight feeling on the cool side which is to be expected, similar day in store today 9 deg now at 9 a.m partly cloudy with sunny spells..Michael we live in the Laois area of Southern Ireland and yes there is some amazing scenery around the country and coasts, the lush greenness is also the plus side of all the rain we get and the roads are great for road tripping, have had the pleasure of a motor bike ride or two and except rural areas and pot holes the main routes are great for it, when we do get it hot occasionally it's lovely like being on hols but the raw cold and stormy windy weather is my fav. which we also get plenty of here even in the midlands, the only downside is excessive cloud n rain that lingers, Cork is lovely too enjoy your holidays..
On 24 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Black Pearl: yes I see that Mt. Volkswagen has erupted and it is covering the establishment in shit.
On 24 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Steve Dorset... Those strange satanic clouds have been showing up ever since the Jet-stream started to meander altering atmospheric wind patterns.
On 23 Sep 2015, Geoff wrote:
I see the poor old Pope, being a soft target to 'free thinkers', is once again getting it in the neck for being mainstream warmist with redistributional aspirations and a dash of S American JesuoMarxist cliches. Does this remind anyone of someone else with a rather Prophetic-derived name? The main difference seems to be the deafening silence on Labour Party policy on alleged C02 impact on climate, and the need for 'ethical' action like building and subsidising wind powered prayer generators- however garish the taste in shades of lipstick they share with the Supreme Pontiff? Puzzling, what?
On 23 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen South) wrote:
The words 'South of France' usually conjure up images and sensations of sweltering heat even at this time of year, but not for us: we're on holiday near Montpellier and there is no sitting outside of an evening with a glass of wine, it's too damn cold in the brisk N'ly wind blowing hard all day. Steel blue sunny skies though and out of the wind it is lovely and warm. They've had a very hot summer here with temps of up to 37°C. We're also going up to Lodève where they've had terrible floods just a few weeks ago, will be interesting to hear what people have to say about that and whether they attribute that to AGW or just take it as freak weather.
On 23 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
By the way have any of you been looking upwards at the sky's of late, have you noticed the clouds they are very dark and form like a rolling seascape, at least that is how I see it, and they do look like the sky's in the oil paintings of the early 1800s if piers is correct and we are I for a colder time of it seems to make spence. Probably just me.
On 23 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Get a generator, the best pice of kit you can have, mine ran the central heating, lights, only from the socket circuit though, but just as good, fridge and freezer, radio and the TV, I think the term TV now stands for totally vacuous as it seems to be a news suppression service run by gorbels as is the MSM.
I see that Australia has a new warmist in charge with his nose in the trough, it will mean the Paris thingy will get passed as abbot was the only hope for Australia saying go boil your head, bet ya.
On 23 Sep 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
The Popes at it again on his USA visit.
No surprise really with him speaking in front of Obama
One religion propping up another
More politics than science
Even Roger Harrabin is resurrecting that old fraud Al Gore http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34328377
Now car companies have been fiddling their programmes just like Western Govt Met. depts have been fiddling theirs to get the desired results theit paymasters require
Everything we are told from 'the top' is Scatt
On 23 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Michael - Ireland is also great for motorcycle road racing. Helen - I hope you kept the gas fire as with central heating you are at risk of power failures. I have an open fire as my backup system but also have a portable gas fire with a cylinder. Bob - it will be good news if El Nino is fading away as that was probably their main hope to try to claim a record warm year at COP Paris.
On 23 Sep 2015, Michael wrote:
To Maria,Ireland:Where in Ireland do you live as I frequently visit West Cork including Bantry,Kilchrohane etc and really enjoy the weather as it is similar to my area in Wales which is on the same latitude.You dont holiday in Ireland for hot weather,but fabulous coastline and beautiful countryside etc.
Best wishes.
On 22 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A little cool n dry today but some sunny spells also, max temp 13 deg. 8 now at 10 pm Rons right re multi fuel is the ultimate boiler for harsh winters if pipe-work configured properly in conjunction with a back boiler, In striving for modern efficient heating systems with controls, we've moved away from a system that used to be used with solid fuel by using a single piped system which relied on gravity and hydraulic water movement with an open vented safety, as long as the header tank was well insulated this system will run indefinitely whilst the multi fuel fire is lit without any electrical components, which although considerably slower would give you all the heating and hot water a house would require in a power outage, avoiding frozen and burst pipes..
On 22 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Contrasting day today. Some heavy rain during the early hours, grey dull and damp this morning. Amazingly found a gap in the rain to get to the station. Worse rain into town. Cleared to give the odd sunny spell and then some light showers. Must have been one just before leaving work. Stopped en route to change trains and noticed the chill in the air. Damp with mist forming over the ponds and moon out now. 21mm of rain from Mon eve to this evening.
On 22 Sep 2015, Helen Dolan wrote:
I do hope you get the job of giving the UK. A true weather forecast , one we could rely on. I still remember the winter of 62/63 walking to school with snow comming over the top of my wellington my feet got very wet and cold, but schools did not let us out any earlier I remember been called to the dinning hall at dinner time and been sent back to our class rooms to play as the dinners were late comming we got our lunch at 2 pm I don't think today that our schools won't cope with a cold and snowy long winter living as I do high in the Pennines where everywhere you go is either up hill or down dale nobody clears our pavements or roads for days we will be stuck it was the winter of 2010 that made us get central heating in our terrace house we had managed with a gas fire in the living room and a heater in the bathroom and on the landing that winter was too cold for most of us hardy Yorkshire folk
On 22 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Recent R5+R4 now over, USA frontal movement largely occurred as Piers' said, w/low pressure, precipitation, large hail and several tornadoes in the central US, 17th-19th R5. Much quieter in the R4. No hail in WI or CA. Cooler air dominated NW US per forecast, some snow too. Hot & humid in TX but no reported tornadoes or sandstorms. Lunar declination at -18 today going north now; major US front followed moon over past two weeks - per Piers' forecast - going north to south diagonally as moon traversed from north node to south. >2MeV electrons going up again as two coronal holes straddling the solar equator nearing center disk become geoeffective, like the last time 9/15. Sun not very active, F10.7 at 103 yesterday, w/USAF 45day @ 100, which looks to be high. 2015 F10.7 ave to hit 120.0 next week, going down from there for at least 7-10 years, until the next solar max. El Nino weakening now. Compare http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.21.2015.gif to 3 months ago.
On 22 Sep 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Heavy rain and flooding for the Gisborne coastline in the North Island https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/aftermath-of-gisborne-floods-reveals-coastline-coated-in-debris-q11775
On 22 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Dull followed by our most frequent type of weather.. rain, some huge big dark clouds early eve. more rain and another shower now at midnight, max 16 deg. 11 now, cool without the wood boiler lit but hopefully better for shifting the first and hopefully last flu of the season, roll on frost time!-)
On 21 Sep 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Is it not time we came up with an easy to remember phrase to describe the warmists that, unlike Warmists describes what they are up to. How about Lysenkists?
On 21 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Lovely weekend. Lots of sunshine, pleasant evening if a bit cool. Attended a wedding and found a nice farm campsite 15mins walk away. Bit of change today with more cloud and a light sprinkle of rain here in London. steve - correct about people taking action. I am trying to find the time to pick holes in my council website for the claim of increased severe weather. Since they reference the IPCC as the source of their ignorance it seems fair to quote it back as they don't make that claim. I think it simpler to concentrate the small brains of the council workers responsible on just one point than trying to get through that all their climate change page is rubbish. Time is the issue. Regarding out stay/remain EU referendum, the legacy media can only discover things for themselves - the fact that other more observant people like Dr Richard North have already covered their 'news' item passes them by. Has to be invented by them. Media yet to call it 'associate membership' but it is.
On 21 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN PARKER: yes I remember it was very much like that in Glasgow with weeks of sledging but horrendous trips to school, some 2 miles away. Those with a real fire are better placed to deal with vagaries of a harsh winter teaming up with uncertainty of power supply, but in January 1982 with the all time record being equalled I learned a very hard lesson. Like you I had an open fire with a 'backsie'.which was alright until the plumbing supply froze outwith the warm room and I was reduced to packing 2 thirds of it with spare firebricks and burning a tiny bit of it to avoid damaging the boiler. I would thoroughly recommend switching to a multi-fuel stove and either making this independent of your plumbing or ensuring that your lagging is even a bit OTT. You'll notice your fuel supply lasting longer too.
On 20 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Rain came in earlier this morning than forecasted not over heavy though, showers ceased for a while before returning, slight breeze and high humidity max 15 deg. still 13 now at 11.30pm
On 20 Sep 2015, STEPHEN PARKER wrote:
RE:Dave T. Here in Rickmansworth in the sixties you were regularly asked to get off the bus so it could get up Scotts hill to Watford.
In truth a winter like '63 will paralyze the south east, a quarter inch of snow brings the roads to a standstill now, imagine what 2-3 feet would do?. In this area snow fell on boxing day '62 and was on the ground till march... .My dad and others had to walk to work, wont happen now. i have an open fire with a back boiler, so ill be ok. Coal and wood will be in place in the next few weeks. Bring it on!
On 19 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, promising & turning out to be a splendid warm day in only a light N’ly breeze and with a max temp of 18˚ (MO had said only 14˚), a typical autumn day of the agreeable kind, i.e. cold night, warm day, the R5 has been kind to us. 12˚ at 9.30pm. == So far, the present period is going as per Piers’ forecast from as far ahead as April, descriptions and pressure maps very accurate!
On 19 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A fairly bland couple of days, mix of cloud and sporadic sunny spells, starry night last night some mist this morn. max 16 today
On 19 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Gerry you maybe right, but it,s a bit like the global warming scam if everyone stood on the sidelines and kept quiet and did not put the other point of view forward what then, I think you are right about the population having the memory of a nat, I saw merkle being shouted down buy a crowd that whistled and shouted right through her speach, I hope the people of Europe wake up and soon to this vile cartel running Europe.
On 19 Sep 2015, Not supplied wrote:
Gerry you maybe right, but it,s a bit like the global warming scam if everyone stood on the sidelines and kept quiet and did not put the other point of view forward what then, I think you are right about the population having the memory of a nat, I saw merkle being shouted down buy a crowd that whistled and shouted right through her speach, I hope the people of Europe wake up and soon to this vile cartel running Europe.
On 18 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, coldish N’ly breeze which strengthened through the morning, a mixture of clouds & sun but cooler than yesterday with a max of 15˚, light shower around 4pm. There’s no denying it, this is autumnal weather and we’re approaching the equinoctial gales, well, maybe… 11˚ at 9.30pm.
On 18 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Wednesday produced some heavy downpours and certainly in the evening in my area. 15mm in the rain gauge next morning. Sunny spells yesterday and cool. Cloudy this morning and just escaped a shower on the way to the station and into work. Heavy shower in London at midday but sun back out.
On 18 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Steve - the referendum date has not even been set and Farage is wasting effort and energy campaigning. People have the interest span of a flea so it will all be forgotten come Oct 2017. Farage has no understanding of the migrant issue and concentrating on it is a loser. As long ago as 2013 the true path started to emerge as to what is happening. A new EU treaty will start from next summer to create a two-tier membership - Farage laughed when this was suggested to him but take a look at Juncker's state of the union address. The colleagues are not interested in a UK renegotiation as they have their own plans. Cameron will try to sell us associate membership as a good thing and we should be preparing to tear that apart but waiting patiently for the chance to do so. No harm in countering lies that the UK will lose out in leaving EU as we can remain in the single market - the only sensible option but not a UKIP one.
On 18 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
met office blog keeps ignoring y post by not publishing them the lates a week ago was "
i see you guys are claiming “2015 the Earth’s average surface temperature is running at, or near, record levels (0.68C above the 1961-1990 average).”.......you need to justify why you keep using the 1961-1990 average rather than the the recent average of 81-2011 when temps would be cooler. The 1961 average as we know is the coldest one you could have chosen so it just looks like cherry picking. Its the same for the CET. You need to justify the 1961 average you guys are stuck in." Maybe they are too busy working out in the staff gym to be bothered with questions as to why they use the 61 average. MetO has no transparency or accountability and silences questions by not posting them.
On 18 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Similar today ( Thurs. ) mix of sun and clouds with a shower to finish the day, max 16 deg a bit milder tonight still 11/12 deg. after midnight.
On 17 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, quite sunny and warm until about 3pm with a gentle N’ly breeze, outside temp got to 18˚ and in the tunnel we were roasting. Big cumulus towers building by then, eventually turning into light rain, followed by a pretty long & hard shower. We are now in a new weather period with R5 for the next three days and I’m watching like a hawk as to what will happen now. Piers’ Euro Pressure maps for Sep have been remarkably accurate so far. Still raining at 9pm, 11˚.
On 17 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Maria,Geoff,Lorraine, you know what it was like in 62/63 as you experienced it first hand, it amazes me that younger generation have never seen the like.. well maybe a little in dec 10, but what bothers me is the fact that now if we do get a hammering people will die of the cold and I would think that there is nothing worse than freezing to death, and it could happen. Hope it is another of the express Newpapers hype... Thing is piers knows what is in store so you know what to do buy his forecasts.
On 17 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Who said UKIP are so far behind, behind What, you quote October 17 who told you that it has not been decided as yet, by the way Nigel Forage is holding EU out hustings all around the country, I think he is right, this country needs to get its mojo back and I await with bated breath to see if anyone other than Nigel has the gonads to stand up and fight for this country, now as for the bull global warming will piers brother point this way or that, ie believes in the global warming scam or agrees with his learned brother that it needs to be dumped along with the climate act.
On 17 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
To whoever it may concern when someone gives a link http etc I cannot get it to highlight so I can copy to link. I am using a iPad may be just Apple.
On 17 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, USA N Mich subscriber wrote:
Two days ago I was adding energetic proton and electron indices to my Electric Weather app, then witnessed the 2MeV electron flux rise from just a few hundred to over 8,000 pfu, and it's still high now, at 5730. For yesterday ONLY, this discussion report backs that up - http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt, "Energetic Particle 24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8050 pfu at 16/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. Forecast...The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over the next three days (17-19 Sep), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels." The Earth's charge was altered by electron negative polarity charge, and may have caused the Chile quake, after coming off a week of high IMF (electric weather), a new moon, then a few days of quiet. All other indices are fairly quiet now in Piers' R5.
On 17 Sep 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Geoff
My time at Cambridge also covered two hard winters, the second one 1985/6 a very cold affair when the bumps were almost cancelled as the river was frozen the first six weeks of second term. I slept in bed with my 5 season climbing sleeping bag under the blankets, wore a bobble hat or balaclava to warm the head and spent a great deal of time working in the College Library as it was warmer than the rooms I had chosen for my final year.
I must say I was also mighty amused when attending the Ski Club of GB Reps' Course in December 1990 that my Scottish/Norwegian attire of Helly Hansen long johns + thermal vest, Berghaus fleece and waterproof jacket, Dachstein mitts and balaclava was more than sufficient to cope with -20C + windchill when those in much more expensive fashion items were getting close to hypothermia. I took quite a bit of a ribbing earlier in the fortnight about my 'low quality' Dachstein mitts, which were endorsed by Fred Harper, iconoclastic Scottish mountain gu
On 17 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Is the EU referendum relevant here? Yes, it is since even if we didn't have the Climate Change Act 2008 agreed by all politicians bar a handful, EU Directives require us to reduce CO2 output to combat 'global warming'. Free of the EU we just have our own democratically elected politicians to deal with and attack over their belief in the warming that isn't happening. What is a 'referendum'? It is where the politicians stand back on an issue that they can't resolve and let the people decide. Both Labour and Tory parties are split over the EU. We don't need a political party to lead the campaign to leave and especially not UKIP who are so far behind what is going on it is staggering. Cameron's renegotiation is dead - as if it ever lived - as the EU colleagues go for a new treaty to advance further integration and the supranational superstate project. The vote will be associate membership or freedom in October 2017.
On 17 Sep 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Here is a really good read of what Piers has been saying all along about climate change/global warming ,(not that Piers wrote it but it backs his theories)
enjoy .. https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/category/hadcet/
On 17 Sep 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I was a teenager in the winter of 62/62, snow was very deep, we got dressed up to go to bed, ice on the inside of the windows, we were hardy but it was still hell. Electricity supplies will not cope with that sort of winter today and many many people will have no heat at all in their homes as almost everyone has central heating, a few lucky ones have a real fire. Most people do not know how to cope with a very cold situation that goes on for weeks on end
On 17 Sep 2015, Geoff wrote:
My recollection of the 62-63 winter is of continuous freeze from Christmas to early March-my first year in Cambridge. The College was not warm- Town Gas demand was high, pressure low, and it was dangerous to leave a fire on overnight-pressure drops, fire goes out, pressure rises gas comes back but not fire. Scratch one undergrad. Water supply froze. Flannels froze solid. The Cam froze for weeks so goodbye gate hours for the riverside colleges (or did the Porters cam up in Arctic Warfare gear and ambush latecomers in the moonlight?) Coal supply was affected because the coal froze in the trucks. The snow seemed to give us a storm every few days- anything from the big wet stuff to powder that got in through any cracks. With a lot of casual labour the transport corridors road and rail soon developed drills that cleared new falls quite quickly.
I was in Boston in 1980/81.First snow before Thanksgiving froze the State to a standstill for two days, just like Home! not enough ploughs
On 17 Sep 2015, Steve Rooth 45day N.E Derbyshire wrote:
The Monster Raving Labour Party are not taking us out of the EU after all.Just another New Labour leader with a whiff of power.Very disappointing..Looks like UKIP till i die,which should be,politicians permitting,30 to 40 years
On 17 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Christine Gaskill...... Here's a sign that the huge coronal hole has affected the Earth causing heating, expansion, a tectonic plate movement and hence a big quake... >>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-34275783 <<<
On 17 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Blimey! That was heavy rain in London yesterday. Nice sunny drive up to North Yorkshire today. It'll put back some of that CO2 that the government are mistakenly cutting down on...... In response to 'Shaun' and 'east side', in Alaska and Siberia young kids aren't allowed out to play if the temp' hits -40C due to potential damage to their lungs. I'm not sure if adults are affected so badly because pole-trekkers walk pulling sleds at -50C but I think that's their limit for outdoors travelling type situations. Just going on documentaries I've seen. The LIA situation is likely to be very different from anything you've seen before with potential snow dumps 20 to 30 feet and 'giant hail' storms. If this turns out to be a full blown ice age starting, then 90% of us can wave bye bye in the first 10 years or less. No good being able to reach the shops if the shelves are empty, and polytunnels have their limits too. It won't just be cold, and the ice will be metres thick for many months.....etc.
On 17 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
EASTSIDE: you are correct the Brits are not prepared for real winters, not even as well as they were in 1962/63 at least in terms of mental toughness and adaptability. I've noticed a change even up here in the Scottish Highlands, especially as the WW2 generation gradually die off. I am old enough to have strong memories of 1962/63 and as a 12 year-old then to think how fortunate I was to be alive after the Cubs crisis. We used to have real trains on the Highland lines with real snowplows on them, now we have toytown trains that get stuck in 15cm of snow. The quality of housing n the cities relative to the climate is appalling At least here we still operating chimneys, so at least people can light a fire during power cuts. Having experience of living in the Kola Peninsula, Norway, Alaska and Canada, I'm 'tooled' up with the right clothes, wood burning stove, fire and a stock of tinned food an approach that got me through the 2008-2011 winters despite the frozen water mains outside!
On 17 Sep 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A few thoughts on cold winters. I was born in the UK and remember the winter of 62/63 particularly going to school in the snow. However, given that winters in the UK have been relatively mild in recent years it will be hard for many people to adapt when the cold of the MIA sets in. People change too. I couldn't live in the northern hemisphere in winter now having been used to the NZ climate for over 40 years and found our cold winter this year quite hard. Age is a factor too and my husband and I certainly feel the cold more than we used too (he was UK born as well). Its not just a matter of toughening up in the cold and wearing more layers, its also important to heat from the inside with hot drinks etc. So there's no hard and fast rule for everybody because we're all different and as such some will adapt easily and others poorly.
On 16 Sep 2015, Phil non sub Ipswich wrote:
Met O's woolly predictions commented about on UK Column (14th September 2015), followed by comment on Jeremy Corbyn, later followed by comment on our potential saviour, The Bradbury Pound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ukx2HoyNQkY
On 16 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, grey & cloudy but dry, barely perceptible N’ly breeze and feeling almost mild, certainly not cold. The sun tried to come through a few times during the morning and it got a bit warmer in the tunnel we’re packing our trees in, max outside temp was 17˚, quite good for the present moment. Slight drizzle off & on from 4pm into the evening, 11˚ again by 9.30pm. == I agree that most of the effects of cold weather are actually in our minds, often not helped by negative anticipation, so it’s a question of thinking ahead and keeping cool while trying to keep warm, if you see what I mean, there are always others who are worse of than we. End of home spun sermon. == Wendy, Piers is very busy just now, as you can imagine, doesn’t often happen that the site is off for that amount of time.
On 16 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Foggy/misty start this morning 8 deg at 8 a.m mix of cloud and sunny spells, all in all a good day, max 14/15 deg. mostly clear tonight lovely & starry again with cooler temps later around 6 or 7 forecast overnight.. 11 @ 21.15 pm
On 16 Sep 2015, east side wrote:
How do you really make up this bollox??
"If Europe is pointing at the Sun when a burst of energetic particles hits our atmosphere then expect a big change in the storminess seen in Europe, especially lightning.
As the Earth turns, America will point at the hole and if a strong solar wind is hitting us then the US will get storms, very heavy rain, tornado's etc. So its all down to timing and precisely what the Sun is doing"
You are just as dogmatic & unscientific as the people you are continually knocking for their addiction to "greenhouse gases".
Believe me after centuries of observations and some of the best university departments in Finland and Russia, we would know about correlations by now!!!!
There is NO SUCH THING as "cause and effect".
We do not live in a linear mono thought solar system, and sure as anything we shouldn't base such things as seasonal temperature/rainfall oscillations on wild speculative hypotheses!
On 16 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Oh dear Shawnee you do live in a parallel universe, you sound young fit and self assured, if my memory is correct they had a snow storm in Romania and the video showed the snow up to the rooftops and people living without light heat etc of course they managed but I bet it was not fun, I expect you would be on your skies dressed in best mink furr with your gun strapped to you back having a fine ol time. I am taking the mickle a bit. I will be in Spain in the warm I think. Raining cats and dogs here in good ol Dorset as I write this tome, clear chilly start this morning 5.30 am far to early for you Shawnee bet you were still fast asleep.
On 16 Sep 2015, WENDY wrote:
What happened ?Weather action off line for at least 24 hrs High Peak Derbyshire.Weather down to 5-6 in the morning foggy too. Concerned about winter here,if comments are correct.Last time in 2010 shopping pulled on sledges.Doctor had skis on his car to reach people.We couldn't get out for days.
On 16 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Cont'd...and then there is our declining power generation resource due to political incompetence. Christopher Booker believes that despite the STOR of diesel generators and private generating plant we are losing capacity too fast to cope with the worst demand. That will mean brownouts and industry closures. How will that affect future industrial investment once it is clear that the politicians have made the supply unreliable - on top of expensive. And the weather can't cheer us up as it is grey, wet and miserable in London today. Just kept dry on the commute. Something to see in the raingauge no doubt.
On 16 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Winter 62/63 - although I existed I have no memory of it. My understanding is that rather than lots of frequent snow it was a freeze that went on for months? So transport would eventually run again in most places which would permit resupply and people to get to work. The majority commute to work now so getting roads and rail back in use would happen but here we encounter 2 issues. The expense of keeping clearing equipment for rare happenings and the spread of global warming propaganda where you are told you will never see snow again. How much was the Heathrow snow chaos due to a debt-ridden Spanish owner wanting to save money on snow clearing believing it would never happen again? Network rail would have to concentrate its efforts on mainlines before the commuter lines. They have after 2010 put in more 3rd rail heating to get trains moving from stations and more point heaters but will it be enough. Cont'd
On 16 Sep 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
Craig 2010 didnt show anything to worry about. No food or water shortages no loss of heating or electricity, people got about.
I like the cold, as I do I have adapted to it and see how people suffer so much with cold as they excessively heat their environment at every opportunity. I dont like the warmth much in the wintet of 2010 by annual heating bill was just under £300 in a house badly insulated. It was cold I accept but it wasnt a drama just meant making more effort to stay warm but its surprising how a few layers make huge difference.
In the winter of 2010 I was cycling to work as I always do. There had been a foot of snow, compounded by feet, freezing and more snow and I still cycled to work all through, still wearing my cycling shorts. 2010 showed my that our perception of cold is dependent on your lifestyle as a mountain ultrarunner I get wet and cold in skimpy clothes and rarely heat my home so cold aint a drama to me. I wont be told as a matter of fact that
On 16 Sep 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
Cont... orientated pretty quickly and governments and councils will respond. It would take some time and effort but I wont be told hardship or challening situations are to be avoided at all times... especially when that hardship as stated is inevitable. People have become complacent which can be a bad trait.
Deep snow does not restrict you to your homes either, you crack on with life, how do people lead lives in the yukon, canada or norway otherwise. They dont just lock them selves away, maybe during the worst but the Yukon live an average of about -40 and wouldn't batter an eye at -20. The whole point of human evolution is our will to survive and immence ability to adapt and we are only talking a month of -20. So yes the child in me likes snow but also my sensibilities tell me its only an issue for those not prepared to do the obvious to overcome the short period
On 16 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 2.... If Europe is pointing at the Sun when a burst of energetic particles hits our atmosphere then expect a big change in the storminess seen in Europe, especially lightning. As the Earth turns, America will point at the hole and if a strong solar wind is hitting us then the US will get storms, very heavy rain, tornado's etc. So its all down to timing and precisely what the Sun is doing. Something to remember is that with a hole that big, if there was a powerful X-flare while Europe was pointing Sunward, then we can expect something pretty dramatic, with some effects taking just a few minutes to several hours after the event, with the solar wind hitting us a few days later. Electromagnetic pulses travel to Earth in just a few minutes though and can cause, on just a small scale, computers, laptops, mobile phones etc, to crash and need rebooting. It also affects peoples mood making them irritable and aggressive and irrational. Observe drivers after a flare and you'll see......
On 16 Sep 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
I do love the snow. But through life experience and study of philosophy I think it is the hard times that make us not the easy times. Bad weather is inevitable and it seems counter to evolution to fear it and not be prepared. So the struggle you speak of is not an issue with the right mindset just another thing to over come. We will adapt to it and make do. The worse part is so many believe its gong to be warming but thats something I cant help and wont start wishing against the inevitable for the sake of the gullible. So many countries find -20 relatively parky and it wouldn't take long for us to adapt. Sport science measures our adaptation to extreme weather for adventure racing and like with heat and elevation we adapt very quick. Its surprisingly easy to keep warm in -20 and as I said is considered comfy temp in areas, norway parents leave their babies outside the homes in -20 for conditioning. Our only issue is infrastructure but people would become more community...
On 16 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Christine Gaskill..... If you think of a coronal hole like a gateway into a field, then the flow of solar particles is like the flow of cattle through that gateway. The effects on the field i.e. mud being created then churned up, are reliant on the number of cattle flowing through the gateway each day, and if they come through singly or hurridly, all in a rush to get through. The solar wind blasting out of those holes is reliant on solar activity which we can't see, often on the far-side of the Sun, and it's not just solar flares which are to blame for changes in the atmosphere of Earth. As activity ebbs and flows the output from the huge coronal hole will increase and decrease accordingly. The hole acts in a similar way to the cattle gateway, by funneling the charged particles (solar wind) through the hole, and spraying them out into space much faster and more energetically than the corona would normally do. ... cont'd
On 16 Sep 2015, Matt havicon wrote:
East side - I agree fully about what you say about Eastern Europe and Russia. They are USED to brutal cold and heavy snowfalls, they deal with it as a matter of course and the infrastructure is in place to DEAL with the cold and snow. Here in Rīgā public transport runs like clockwork whatever the weather and the airport stays open. Water pipes are buried FEET underground and people dress correctly for whatever nature throws at them.They even dynamite the River Daugava to get it moving in spring! But they do build houses and flats differently here. Our flat has half metre thick walls and we have two thick reinforced front doors protecting us from the cold. Also keeps us cool on any summer heat. We don't have open fires, instead we use closable wood burning furnaces which are more efficient at redistributing heat around our flat.AND we don't get any mould or condensation which is common in UK. In a nutshell UK is not ready for another LIA. Very worrying. Can't say Piers didn't
On 15 Sep 2015, east side wrote:
"Going back to a freeze up in Scandinavia or even on the same latitude many places have cold brutal winters with feet of snow yearly!
Here I think the records are about 1ft. They cope but the houses are different"
Sorry that's nonsense.
In Russia the main difference is, people are USED to the cold, use snow tyres & wear the right clothing.
Air gaps in the double glazing are MUCH bigger, but lots of heating is communal.
Communal heating is unheard of in western Europe as without communism or central planning it couldn't work.
We routinely have 1-2m (yes METRES not FEET) of snow every winter & temps down to -40C.
Do people complain?
Of course not, they'rs not namby pamby whinging pommies obessed with "elf and safety", and closing schools at the first snow flake.
Schools in Russia only close at below -30C up to Ural, but no doubt in nothern siberia they manage at -50C without worry!
On 15 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, feeling even colder than yesterday morning. Some sunshine to beging with but that didn’t last, the rest of the day was just grey with a lot of cloud carried along on a light N’ly breeze that again lasted all day. Max temp 15˚ and the absence of wind made it almost warm while working. Light drizzle from 5pm onwards lasting well into the evening, 11˚ at 9.30pm.
On 15 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some more rain the last couple of days, a bit yuk n soggy about the place, but we still didn't get it as bad as Kerry and other counties that have had their fair share of flooding the last few days, a few sunny spells this aft. made the most of an hour outside with the kids after school for a bit of healthy exercise before it rained again, partly clear now tho some cloud still around, feeling damp and cooler again this eve. max temp 14 deg. 10 now at 8.30 pm
On 15 Sep 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Why has weatheraction site ben unavailable for last 24hrs?
We had 25mm of rain yesterday a lot drier today and warmer
On 15 Sep 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Really heavy rain here today caused flooding see here.... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3235050/Motorists-stuck-knee-deep-floodwater-torrential-rain-sweeps-North-east-ll-rain-tomorrow-remnants-tropical-storm-Henri-hit-Britain.html
some people lost power for 12 hours due to substations flooding etc not a pleasant day at all !!
On 15 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Dave T wrote he were 7 in 1963, and 12 by the time his bus got up the hill, or words to that effect.. having a laugh I recon.
A friend was telling me that he was tasked to clear a road locally in 63 that was a 1 in 6 hill he had a crawler with metal tracks no rubber ones like today to do it with, it was so icy under the snow that his machine started to slide on the ice and it was only luck that he was able to aim into a verge of soil on the edge of the road that held him from a drop down into the woods on the slope prob 80 foot down.
So not all fun in the snow. The last time I saw ice like 63 was 2010 dec..
On 15 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
..cont...is lethal to crops & people. Going back to a freeze up in Scandinavia or even on the same latitude many places have cold brutal winters with feet of snow yearly! Here I think the records are about 1ft. They cope but the houses are different (I recall someone saying cold in Australia is harsh as the houses are not cold proof) and they have far more money to combat the effects as without it the economy would grind to a halt every winter. As for Frost fairs - unlikely but possible. The Thames is not a natural river in London with the embankments constraining the river's tendency to meander+the bridges no longer impede flow. Upstream is far more likely and I recall we were watching for that closely here in one of the recent cold spells (Feb 2012?). A long cold spell like 46/7 or 62/3 would hurt the economy without a doubt. But the kid in me says bring it on (which I'm sure I'll regret). :)
On 15 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
62/63 - be careful what you wish for as they say! Personally I would be that little kid but I know it would be brutal leading to excess deaths. We would struggle to cope, certainly in the South, as 2009/10 showed but at least the recurrent cold spells since Feb 09 have prepared us somewhat. It boils down to us not being used to it. Take the Great Storm of 1987 - despite the devastation it was nothing really compared to hurricanes & typhoons. Reading a few papers on that storm it stood out as it was unusual to have a storm so far south (yes we had a strong southerly jet - close to min & there was a coincident - or not - ramp in solar activity also). Scotland/North are regularly battered by such winds as that's more common. It's like rain. The flooding in 13/14 was around 500mm over 3 months. In many places in the tropics that can be from a single storm. Conversely cold in the tropics such as the recent hail in Papau....cont...
On 15 Sep 2015, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Firstly well done to Jeremy it seems if your brother plays his cards right you could be having lunch in no 10 Downing street.Just to comment that September has been going to your forecast so far.Any comments Piers as to regards to this winter that the press are on about could be as bad as 62/63.i tend to be skeptical until i hear it from the Horses mouth
On 15 Sep 2015, DaveT wrote:
I were 7 in 1963 and the winter were great.
When I was 12 they used to make us get off the bus and push it up the hill.
I hope for real winters with the Thames frozen and ice fairs.
On 15 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Shaun.. It must be the child in you, I bet you will be out running around like a child making snowmen, but you are still delusional to think it is all wonderfull when you are up to your neck in the stuff and cannot get out of your door for weeks at a time and are starving. I can foresee a big problem when big towns and cities run out of the basics, bread, milk, etc. if the transport can,t get through then we are in trouble big time, as the population has increased many times over, that said this is before the immigration issue a labour woman MP said we should import as many immigrants as to flood the country. What the hell is that about a truly vengeful comment.
On 15 Sep 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Having a parent who was the son of forced labour taken to Russia and whose farm was stolen by the soviets and who was born and raised to a young teenager in soviet russia, I heard at first hand what life was like in a marxist country and fact was not theory, not at all, Socialism on the marxist scale was truly vile for most who lived in it.
On 15 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Emptied the rain gauge last night of 5.5mm for the last 2 days. Some showers in the evening but noticeably cold outside in a strong breeze. Grey and miserable this morning with light rain/drizzle. Cleared to sunny spells in Town. The reason for wanting a 62/63 winter is to hit the warmists and get them to explain why in the 'hottest year evah' in a world 'where children won't know what snow is' and the Arctic was 'ice free by Summer 2014' is it so cold and the snow so deep for so long. It would be a major challenge to the nation given the anecdotes from that time (I wasn't yet 1). Bodies not buried because of the frozen soil. No crops planted for the same reason. At least they had a power generation system that worked then even if some of the delivery lines might have failed. How will we cope with months of presumably still high pressure and increased demand? Could it nail our energy stupidity?
On 15 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
The reason I said deluded about winter 1963 was it was awfully cold and snowy and it went on for what seemed forever, and what made it so bad was the infrastructure was not in place to deal with it, I lived trough it I was young but remember it well. I would not like to see it as bad as that again. There was not the snow clearing AS today so hopefully with that and central heating we should be ok. By the way it was the express that said we are in for a cold winter so get your deck chairs out.
On 15 Sep 2015, shaun - wales wrote:
It is totally unfair to say someone is deluded for making out a 62 63 winter would be nice. Quote; you have your way and I havw mine, as for the right way it does not exist.
People live on a daily basis in worse weather than 62 to 63 and I personally love the challenge and hardship, the issue for many is lack of common sense and prepardness. But tha still doesnt make some one delusional for wanting and I personally wait with excitement every winter for that big winter where I can hike and camp to challenge myself in amazing conditions if you are not prepared for it maybe you need to get in gear rather that accuse others of delusions. Unless everyone living within the arctic are some how inferior. I will never accept the condescension that I am deluded for accepting the inevitability of nature. Personally I find not accepting the inevitably of nature delusionadel. Extreme rain here in s.wales and some bad flooding coupled with heavy rain over last 2 days
On 14 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
When it comes to surface temperature sets, remember that they all use the same tampered and fiddled set from NCDC so it is no surprise they all show the imaginary warming. Meanwhile the 2 satellite sets show the ever lengthening plateau which may or may not be disturbed by the El Nino. Since they quote temperature anomaly as opposed to outright temperature then the figure to which is anomalous is very important and hence why they deliberately cherry pick a cold period. The warmists are getting desperate and wheeling out the ignorant celebs to try to scare the public who are basically not interested until the green measures start costing them money.
On 14 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Lots of sunny spells yesterday and quite pleasant. Overnight heavy showers with enough to show in my rain gauge - guessing 5mm as not had time to check. Cloudy morning with some rain showers on the way into London and in town. Sun now out though. Politics- global warming is a leftwing creed as the greens are aptly described as watermelons. Their red marxist core comes from most of them being former CND and anti-nuclear campaigners who needed a new cause after the Soviet Union. It demonstrates the general left drift of politics that the tories have signed up to it with a few noble exceptions. If they were truly a party of the free market (which they aren't) they would realise the damage to the economy green policies do without having to wait for industries to collapse or relocate. At least the Jurassic Coast windfarm has gone but so has another reliable coal power station.
On 14 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Richard Brown, if you think 62/63 Winter was a wonderful time of snow men and chestnuts roasting you are deluded, as for 230 thousand sensible people you definitely are, as it is I think all a pipe dream, I wonder how Jeremy will handle this upcoming Paris climate conference, it could be interesting time with lot,s of change for labour,some deluded folk on the left still believe that man has been responsible for any warming we may have seen, time and tide as they say.
On 14 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Meto tub thumping about 'man made climate change and 2 hottest years. Really. What they do is so dishonest. Despite no evidence linking cause and massive documentated fiddling of temp data by NOAA where all this 'warmest ever stuff comes from' they still like to big it up this nonsense ..."The scientists confirm that in 2015 the Earth's average surface temperature is running at, or near, record levels (0.68C above the 1961-1990 average)." they need to justify why they use the 1961-90 average which is the coldest one they could have used. if they used the recent one 81-2011 it would be cooler than average. They depend upon people's ignorance of charts to perpetuate their scam and what can only be described as deliberate deception.
On 14 Sep 2015, Geoff wrote:
Do you think that the Shadow Foreign Secretary might now use his weight to persuade the Vatican to accept the Climate Change Challenge (Science thereof) as laid ot by Bro Piers in recent months-especially since there appears to be a convergence on other issues between the Corbynistas and the Holy See. Given the MetO stance on 'soaring world temperatures' 1-2 deg in the last two years and its policy consequences, which is diametrically opposite to Piers's analysis and conclusions, how much longer must we wait for the big debate? Or is the Climate Debate expendable to keep the ultra Left sects from doing their usual act of fighting each other like cats in a sack on points of dogma?
On 13 Sep 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Delighted by the win of Mr J Corbyn. Corbyns rule! On a different subject someone mentioned that the size of the sun's coronal holes seemed larger. Look at this present one. It's huge! I wonder what effect that will have when the wind strikes on the 14th?http://www.spaceweather.com/images2015/13sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=1ujeimurffscnfan8uot7krng2
On 13 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, jolly cold but dawning to a mostly sunny day with quite a bit of cloud from time to time, warm in the sun but the S’ly breeze was not as it was returning N’ly air, max temp 18˚ out of the wind. Clouding over around 6pm and still 11˚ by 9.30pm & feeling relatively mild.
On 13 Sep 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorhshire wrote:
Express and Telegraph stating that Britain and Europe are in for a 1962/63 type winter only worse!! Fingers crossed. Any thoughts on the recent stories, Piers?
Excellent news about Jeremy....it seems there are at least 240,000 sensible people in Britain....
On 13 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, USA N Mich subscriber wrote:
Both the Arctic and Greenland ice melt seasons were very short this year - certainly not in line with the warmist's expectations. August HadSST3 tropical temps were high but at the same time, SSTs in both the NH and SH were colder than July. All three are complied monthly with a global average too (if you can look past the absurdity of single 'global' temperature). The latest SST image put out every few days by NOAA here http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.10.2015.gif indicates that the "Blob" of warm water in the NW pacific is starting to dissipate. The SST image is also showing a less intense equatorial Nino region. Ocean heat content has been 'fairly' steady for six months, but I'm thinking it's heading down this month or next from low solar activity. Are we turning a corner with the return of the Cold Sun, with the beginning of very low solar activity? Is a 'Mini-Ice Age' as Piers calls it, about to commence in earnest from a quiet Cold Sun? It seems so.
On 13 Sep 2015, Bob Weber, USA N Mich subscriber wrote:
Heat wave through central USA passed by early in the month per WA forecast for Sep 5-7 R4. "Thundery, Hail" in California Sep 8-11 - happened! Piers said for Sep 8-11 "Great Lakes, Mid West + extends to centre USA large area of unsettled weather with heavy rain, local floods + large hail + thunderstorms." - we had two tornadoes in Michigan then, and central USA had lots of large hail in zone where Piers had forecast northern cold and southern heat clashing. Earlier R4 extended a day or so by big high density & speed solar wind hits - lots of aurora, hemispheric power up to 70 GW; ring current enhanced. Solar flux for Sep averaging 87.6, much lower than SWPC prediction, 99 yesterday. Big old AR2403 just about to roll into view -we'll see what goes up from that... Lowest F10.7 flux in 4.3 years on the 9th @ 82 sfu, and TSI is down to 2011 levels now too - closer to solar minimum conditions! USAF F10.7 forecast indicates 2015 will go below 120 right at end of Sep. Cold across USA now!
On 13 Sep 2015, stephen parker wrote:
I think you will find that the left is no friend of the climate skeptic. However, if the solar forecasters are correct, they wont have to be, as the evidence over the next 10 years will prove the point.
On 13 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
>>> http://www.spaceweather.com/images2015/13sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=c6kuc95s6oln3g0uhqrc0rkmj5 <<< Let me see now, how big are these holios going to get? BIGGER! These massive holes should lead to bigger and more electrically violent storms. We shall see... Weather is very cool with lots of dew after a cloudless sky last night. Nice sunny Sunday, though I can't see it lasting as the jets are plastering the sky with long lasting trails.... The article about a harsh winter was interesting but the explanation sounds illogical. Any fresh water from Greenland is going to be the same as any other cold fresh water from around the globe. It won't take long for it to mix, otherwise the whole planet would have a layer of fresh water sitting on top of salt water which it obviously doesn't. If the water is cold it will sink in the warm Gulf current. Maybe they should look at why the Gulf isn't warming the Gulfstream as much as usual instead of blaming some melting ice..?
On 13 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Kent-Surrey border wrote:
Congratulations to Mr J Corbyn. I hope he will change politics to where politicians actually believe in what they say and who and what they represent. I am not a great supporter of his policies but I know that he truly believes in them. He believes the Labour party should be of the left. If only the Tories had a leader a leader that believed they should be a party of the right. Jeremy could make great use of Cameron's Mr Slippery persona. Weather rather than politics. On Friday evening my friend texted me to say that ITV (MetO sourced) forecast it to be not very good for Saturday - or word to that effect. Not good as I had arrived at Lydden Hill race circuit. Definitely a weather pattern change during Friday and cloudy overnight. Odd splat of rain during the night but come around 8.30 and with a strong SW wind it bucketed down. However, come around 10am, the rain stoped, it brightened, cleared and we enjoyed a sunny day's racing.So had I believed them I might not have gone.
On 13 Sep 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK Sub wrote:
Red sky at night shepherds delight, red sky in the morning shepherds warning.
Started the day with a shower and it is still cloudy not bad temps 12c at 6.30am
On 13 Sep 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
I`m not massively into politics but well done to your brother Piers i just hope he can share some of your beliefs on the climate etc,but one thing for sure as you help each other as brothers do ,it will bring more visitors to your site which will be a good thing for Weather Action ,Strange weather here yesterday ,a mighty deluge of rain for around 80 mins then sunshine and showers cool 13 c felt more like April !!
On 13 Sep 2015, east side wrote:
It's maybe a timely warning as equinox is a week away, the strong possibility of an exceptionally cold winter, following an unusually cold and wet summer.
Being as the JS cold circulation pattern has scarcely changed since last winter over Ural region, and over Scandinavia there has been very little summer warmth, the sea temperatures are already lower than normal.
Last august / september in the Baltic states was hot with temps in the 30s for weeks, with a following winter that was not cold.
This year with a solar activity falling fast, I predict early frost and snow, and winter temperatures down to -40>-48C.
On 13 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
some achieve greatness others have it thrust upon them. I wonder what the odds were this time last year if someone said JC would be leader of the Labour party? From what i see JC is a much better debater and thinker on his feet and should wipe cameron in PM question time who has to go to a focus group/advisers to find out what he thinks. It would seem to me people have rejected the idea and the narrative that goes with it of policies that transfer 99% of the wealth to less than 1% of the population via PFI, bogus privisations that still need billions of public money, constant wars to keep arms companies happy, public subsidy of private landlords for housing and employers for jobs and claiming all of this is the 'center ground'. its far right wing ground and people, are fed up with the inequalities it has created that locks people into serfdom with no way out unless they win the lottery. It is the same greed based philosophy that drives the co2 religion.
On 13 Sep 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
Congratulations to Jeremy for a well fought, clear, honest and spinless campaign. One of the audience on the Sky News debate last week said this; "You're all the same. To me you look and sound exactly the same. Apart from Jeremy. He's different!" I hope this marks a shift in policy towards helping all those people using food banks and the most vulnerable in society who have been so badly mistreated by those in power. Weatherwise it was a day of two seasons yesterday. Our daughter did notice many birds and geese flying south though.
On 13 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The rain came late Friday aft/early eve. going through the night, Leinster got upgraded to Orange alert but although other counties had a lot of water it didn't seem as bad here, brighter this morning than I had anticipated which was good, some light showers this aft. max 13 deg today ( sat.)
On 12 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, grey, overcast and very windy from the SE, dry until about 12.30, after which the rain started and never let up until around 6pm. While the rain was coming down it felt really cold but towards the end of the afternoon we had 14˚ and it felt mild at 10pm even with only 9˚ as there was much less wind. A little bit of sun by 7.30pm, followed by a starlit evening. ==Reading up about Jeremy’s victory on the BBC website I noticed that Piers was described as a “climate change denier” when in fact he is warning about the biggest change (Little Ice Age) for a long time in the offing. Regardless of politics, the fact that J garnered so much support does show that people appear to be much more aware of the rotten nature of the established order, which I find encouraging.
On 12 Sep 2015, carl T wrote:
Congrats to your brother; if he can win with 59.1 % of the vote despite the best work of the biased broadcasting corp (see newnights abhorrent attempt at journalism) Perhaps Piers can win the BBC weather contract in the future.
Here's hoping
On 12 Sep 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// well plenty of holly berries on the trees in France at moment - holly berries in folklore means snow in winter - will have to buy the forecast after all I am sure Piers must be toasting with a glass of red wine right now
On 12 Sep 2015, John E wrote:
My word this looks serious if it happens
http://mmc-news.com/news-shock-weather-warning-britain-faces-coldest-winter-in-50-years-and-months-of-heavy-snow-214756.dbv
On 12 Sep 2015, Geoff Clarke wrote:
Should be some interesting debates on Global Warming, CO2 and other parts of the Labour Party Creed coming up especially since JC has such ambitious spending plans and CO2 seems to be so a fundamental a tenet of the Creed that the money will continue to be tipped down the drain. Bring on the synonyms for delusion etc!
Should sharpen up Comment though- it has been rather dominated by local nature notes of late!?
On 12 Sep 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Well Piers, you are now the brother of the new Leader of the Labour Party.
I hope he believes in evidence-based evaluation of climate, its implications for Government policy and cost-effective investment of public funds in that regard.
He would be introducing something radically different into the Labour Party if he did, however......
On 12 Sep 2015, janespain (subscriber) wrote:
Well done Jeremy! I sincerely hope that this momentous change will bring Piers' work to the forefront of the establishment as valuable and necessary. Best wishes for the future of WeatherAction Piers.
On 12 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
*CONGRATULATIONS* to the Corbyn family. What a result! You must feel extremely proud of your brothers achievements Piers.......... Weather? Very wet ... yep that just about sums it up. Cool, moist, misty, cloudy, dull, miserable, raining, yeuk!
On 12 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Sooner or later they had to do it! Blame the imminent ice age on humans, how sick is that? But they have done a great job so far in keeping peoples attention away from the truth, mainly by calling the conspiracy theorists and truth-seekers "crackpots". Oh how gullible we are! I keep telling dozens of people about Weather Action and the coming ice age, and 95% take a great interest, with just a few seeming disinterested. Well here, finally, is the admittance of truth.... >> http://iceagenow.info/2015/09/uh-huh-new-studies-say-global-warming-could-trigger-an-ice-age/#more-16996 <<
On 11 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, looked like a promising day and we had some occasional sunshine until about 11am, when the fog suddenly started rolling in on the strong SE’ly wind. It had gotten to 17˚ but went down to 14˚ pretty quickly again, a bit of light drizzle for a while as well, 13˚ at 10pm & still blowing but feeling somehow mild. The MO forecast for tomorrow keeps changing, it might be a washout after all, but then again, maybe not…
On 11 Sep 2015, steven wright wrote:
i see james madden at it again saying in the daily express because of the cold atlantic ocean that britain will have the coldest winter for 50 years the last time the atlantic ocean was this cold it was a mild winter not too sure what year it was but i saw it on gavs videos earlier this year.also he is trying to sell his product exatra weather,however i do like snow mainly at christmas but if weatheraction says the same as madden then i for once will believe him.
On 11 Sep 2015, Michael wrote:
@RON - Where is Joe Bastardi quote regarding his winter thoughts and similarity to 2009? He's a typical cold ramper although calls the USA right on occasions, tends to get our side of the pond wrong though.
On 10 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, foggy as anything in a strengthening SE’ly breeze, slowly started clearing up by 11am and we had a few views of the white disk in the sky known as the sun, but it never came out fully. Got to 17˚ though, 2˚ better than yesterday. Stayed overcast for the whole day really, 12˚ again by 9.30pm. == We have an event here on Saturday, so I’ve been watching the MO website for a while, really not reliable (as we know) in that their computerised forecast changes all the time, what looked like a washout may now be quite ok.
On 10 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Last couple of days have been pleasant again with the hp some increased cloud about but at least the sun got through off n on, max temp 17-19 deg with a light se breeze, working hard to get all the first important jobs done outside for now in time for the big time rain on its way, met.ie have an Orange rain warning up and Yellow for us here in the Midlands in Leinster... Willow tree has lost 2/3rds of its leaves and Maples trees & smoke bushes are beginning to display their lovely autumn colours now and the Beech, Horse Chestnut and Oak are about to start too..
On 10 Sep 2015, STEPHEN PARKER wrote:
Its going to be fascinating to see what happens to our "just in time" supply system if we get a winter like'63. Most people could walk to work then ( as happened where i live ) now its the reverse, and elf n safety will have schools closed for months. Roads with speed humps cant be snow- ploughed, and all the extra cars would make it harder anyway.
Most people still had coal fires then, now its all central heating powered with electric pumps... and we know how little capacity is spare in the system, it could be an interesting ride!
On 10 Sep 2015, Pete wrote:
Just a question.... As the atmosphere contains a fair proportion of water vapour, which if memory serves is a magnetically polar molecule. Are the changes in the earths magnetic field (due to the sun etc) physically dragging water vapour around and so responsible for the pressure patterns you can predict?
On 10 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Typical high pressure weather with cold nights, early mist and fog. Clearing in the sun at home but a fog puddle sitting over Croydon on the way into London. Sunny in town. Note from spaceweather that the solar flux is way down.
On 09 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 and another grey day with the obligate SE’ly breeze, the sun tried to come through around 9am but without success. Slightly warmer/less cold with a max temp of 15˚ while the West was apparently basking in 20˚. 12˚ at 9.30pm, better day in the offing tomorrow according to the MO.
On 08 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cool start 8 deg at 7.40 a.m blue patches of sky light SE'ly breeze and a nice enough sunny day reached 18 deg. quite warm to work in but temps never seem to hold for long this year before they drop back down cooler, saying that a little milder tonight than recently..everyone manic getting work done before the weekend rain, see a few swallows hanging around still.
On 08 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast & grey all day with a SE’ly breeze and occasional fine drizzle, complete contrast to yesterday, typical East Coast stuff, max temp 13˚, feeling like November when the fog came in for a while as well. 11˚ again by 9.30pm. == I have a feeling our swallows are gone, I saw just one sitting on the phone line yesterday, the robins have started to sing and we’ll see how soon the geese will turn up.
On 08 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE DEVINE. Speaking from a position of total bias, I 'd like to name 3 of them as 'Mobeeb', 'Piers' and 'Jeremy'. I see Big Joe is likening the forthcoming winter to 2009/10---been sawing wood all afternoon!
On 08 Sep 2015, JohnE wrote:
This seems very early to me but the geese have started to move onward from our local reservoir.
I have no idea which particular type they are but they are certainly on the move
On 08 Sep 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
Have had the heating on a few times now and it's barely the second week into September. I see the Met Office are asking for people to submit names for autumnal storms on Twitter. How about naming them after the towns flooded over the BBQ summers from 2007 onwards that never materialised you over-funded shower of...
On 08 Sep 2015, Wizbod sub. wrote:
Mind Blowing Temperature Fraud From NASA In Greenland. h ttps://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/09/06/mind-blowing-temperature-fraud-from-nasa-in-greenland/ ( remove space after h )
Further proof of a vast criminal conspiracy fact ! Send a copy to all our useless mps.
On 08 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
'Mobeeb' --if they still exist, are now just making a similar projection for next week that you predicted 2 weeks in advance---are they learning? Again interesting comment from them on the cold Atlantic. Looking at the weather pattern so far and what might be in store. makes one glad it is not January
On 07 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, cold though quite sunny, and sunny all day with a max temp of 18˚, contrary to the MO’s forecast of ‘13˚ max and cloudy all day’ and in spite of the fact that we’re in an R4 period (that said, Piers’ pressure map is spot on!). We are now into grading & packing our trees and it was bloomin’ roasting in the tunnel. Beautiful wispy cirrus formations this morning, as often happens in high pressure; and equally as often in these conditions, the main direction of the wind was NW’ly in the morning and SE’ly sea breeze in the afternoon, that took the shine off the temperature somewhat, and by 5pm it was getting distinctly cool. 12˚ by 9pm and overcast.
On 07 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
The standard model is long dead and not fit for purpose...proof? This is a quote from spaceweather.com, " The CME missed, but a geomagnetic storm broke out anyway." .... They haven't the faintest idea why. Maybe they should get on the phone and ask Piers before posting such embarrassing nonsense...
On 07 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Saturday was mainly cloudy with pockets of rain around, some quite heavy on a strong NW wind. Travelled to Lydden circuit near Dover and passed through the rain. Remained dry at the circuit and cleared during the evening for a moonlight night. Lovely sunny day yesterday with cloud not increasing as the Mail forcast said. The edge was taken off the temperature by the wind still being from the NW and quite strong.
On 07 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
After a clear starry cool Saturday night, Sunday was a cloudy still day but at least it was dry, temp 7 at 8.30 a.m rising to 17deg. looks like a similar day in store today
On 07 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
It's started, and we are now well into the cooling phase. How rapidly the cooling happens will be a shock to most people, as are these 'giant' hailstones predicted by our very own CLIMATE EXPERT Piers Corbyn. Take a look at these babies, but remember, this is Italy, not Tibet or Sweden or Alaska... >>> http://iceagenow.info/2015/09/baseball-sized-hail-pummels-parts-of-italy/#more-16979 <<<
On 06 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, wind has lessened somewhat and coming from the NW, cloudy with some sunshine, steadily brightening and warming up, almost still for a while around midday, then breezy again and still warming up to a staggering 20˚, what with the polar airflow now cut off and warm Atlantic air circulating around the High. Farmers were out in force combining, likely well into the night, everything has dried up nicely. 12˚ at 10pm and a beautiful starry sky, ages since we’ve last had that.
On 06 Sep 2015, David wrote:
It was interesting to read Piers' summary of the summer which, as he said, the Met Office got completely wrong as usual and WA did much better. However in Germany, not so very far away, it was a very different story. The third hottest summer since modern records began and that was with a fairly lacklustre June. High summer (july-mid August) max here in Stuttgart averaged 28.5C --at least 4C above normal. And interestingly, after a cooler period, the final bank holiday weekend, predicted in the UK to be a scorcher very much was one here with 33C reached on three consecutive days. Of course it's the exact position of the jetstream which made all the difference which is why I don't envy Piers trying to get the forecast right when even a couple of hundred miles can make a dramatic difference to the season!
On 06 Sep 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A good dhttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/71779014/Heavy-snow-possible-for-lower-South-Islandump of snow for the lower South Island today
On 05 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, cold NNW’ly wind all day, not as strong as yesterday though, mostly cloudy morning, lovely bright afternoon though with a max temp of 15˚ and a real and benign autumn day feeling, cloudy again by evening, 9˚ by 10pm. == Some remarkable pictures of a waterspout on Lake Zurich, Switzerland this morning http://www.tdg.ch/suisse/trombe-eau-observee-lac-zurich/story/11306144. The air temp was 13˚ and water at 22˚ - we here are dreaming of an air temp like that at this time of year!
On 05 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Forgot to mention dropping cold now at 8pm looks like 5/6 deg. overnight.. It's gonna be a long winter John Snow..:-)
On 05 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cool start around 10 deg this morning, variable sky but soon turning into a welcome blue sky sunny day, max temp 16/17 deg. warm enough for a t-shirt, great to have a nice day to gather up a big load of onions and some more spuds, still bunging peas in the freezer and the late runner beans are cropping heavy the last couple of weeks, a good supply of green chili's and peppers this year but sweetcorn wasn't great too wet and the lack of sun perhaps.
On 05 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Me again! ... Anyone notice that the coronal holes (some veiled and obscured slightly) are getting bigger and bigger? Very large and near the Sun's poles too. Most ancient drawings of the Sun show it with rays (corona?), but a few show it in two states and the other state has NO RAYS! Some folk like to think that the disc with no rays 'can't be the Sun' but the open minded, unblinkered ones show that the state with no rays is the same depiction as the one with rays. The Moon and other (obvious to even the ancients) celestial bodies i.e. Jupiter are drawn differently. Yep, these drawings are of our Sun with and without rays, and to me that can only mean one thing. That there are times when the corona disappears, and why did the ancients mark this change? Catastrophic events maybe, coinciding with the lack of rays? If a Mammoth was found to have died while still chewing cud, then as Robert Felix proposes, they were frozen extremely quickly, literally freeze dried. Mammoth coronal holes!
On 05 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Shaun... it's all a smokescreen to take 95% of human eyes off the ball, which is the immediate starting of the next ice age. They have already prepared our subconscious with the film The Day After Tomorrow, whereby humans cause a runaway effect on the climate causing catasrophic cooling. These clever sods have been planning this for a very, very long time. Maybe it's an attempt to survive with lots of technology intact for a change, instead of emerging from the next ice age as The Flintstones, we could have most of todays technology remain intact. So it could be a very Star Trek-like ideology but in reverse. The needs of the few outweigh the needs of the many etc. Quality over quantity. What would you prefer for your money, either six Lada's or one Audi?? .... Weather-wise, the cloud swirls and chaotic wind directions over the whole area of the Sat24 Europe radar, have been very interesting, and just a bit worrying. Anyone know if these strange wind patterns are happening elsewhere?
On 04 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
First load of logs delivered this evening since Spring, feels weird stacking them when we haven't had a proper wave of heat, but I do like the thought of winter approaching. Rained overnight, chilly dull breezy with a few brief sunny spells, max 15 deg. 10 now at 11.30pm
On 04 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, clouds racing from the North in a still stiff wind and feeling colder than on previous days. Went to town when the sun came out, somewhat warmer there than the 12˚ reached here on the farm, but only for a brief hour or so. Rain off & on from about 3.30pm, some heavy bursts, into the evening. 9˚ again by 9.30pm. == We had a call from a friend in Paris who said that they’ve had a wonderful hot summer! Galling, but at least it will put a damper on the Warmists’ agenda and hopefully sabotage the Paris COP-out.
On 04 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Shaun - all your logic is good but warmists aren't logical people but religious zealots. With so much riding on COP Paris they have to roll out the propaganda. Major embarrassment if they have to reveal a colder than average year and then they have to explain why it has happened in contravention of their warming claims. If they choose to do some fiddling they risk all those who seek the truth in science catching them out. Slingo parrots the usual answer when they fail to accurately predict - nobody can do it. Richard - Co2 removal from the models does produce better results indicating that they don't understand what they are modelling properly and overdo the 'greenhouse gas effect'. So much for settled science. Cloud increased during the afternoon and some light rain fell on the way home and at home during the evening. Cool. Overcast this morning and slightly warmer due to the heat trapping. Sunny spells in London but cool.
On 04 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
from Meto blog by Slingo on where did uk summer go..."Seasonal forecasts for this summer suggested that temperatures and rainfall would be near normal. However, as the season progressed all the leading models around the world failed to capture the signal for unsettled weather over the UK. We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done"... there is a model of reality that did predict better but its not based on co2. Maybe WA should send them it. http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/08/28/so-what-happened-to-our-summer/
On 04 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
shawn- the funny thing is i read a couple years ago someone took all the co2 loaded assumptions out of the Meto models [ie all the political/religious bias] and ran them and the results were much better lol.
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... it is unbelievable to act that way, it is more likely to vary than not to vary or to stay linear, and we know its not increasing as they accept the hiatus so I feel the fact they make no colder year predictions as a sign of obvious bias as it is just so unlikely.
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... to acknowledge the hiatus at a time of ever increasing pollution is to acknowledge that natural phenomena can stop warming in its tracks assuming you believe in man made warming that is. If it can stop the highest ever levels of pollution in its tracks then surely it is enough to make some years slightly cooler than other years.
Also to say warming cancels out cooling is nonsense, otherwise all warmings must be exactly equal to any coolings to explain the pause, the pause means temp is relatively linear at this moment and as they acknowledge the cooling trends due to the sun then I find it odd that each cooling from what ever source is exactly matched by warming to keep the pause a pause and not a warming or cooling.
So considering this variation why is that EVERY year they predict warmer summers than avg & never cooler, believing in warming doesn't mean it is never allowed to be naturally cool
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... irrational because of an argument I find true in so many circumstances in life and have used time and time again.
if you believe in global warming you must still accept that mathematically speaking we will get colder than usual weather or summers or even years. The fact the weather is an oscillations means it will consistently go negative.
Yet they are way too obvious, even with warming you can't expect it to be so extreme as to not have the odd colder than average summer, it is inevitable.
Weather is not average, average is a made up number after the event has taken place, average numbers don't even have to exist in the dataset. To expect weather to be linear or consistently rising is absurd even to global warming deniers as natural variation HAS to have some effect, they say warming is to bad as to cancel out events but that can't be so otherwise the hiatus could not exist and they have already acknowledged that
On 03 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, cold and really strong NNW’ly wind which kept going all day, some drizzle but not as much as yesterday and no proper rain, max temp a little higher at 15˚, occasional glimpses of the sun, still blowing at 9.30pm when we had 9˚. Regarding autumn colours, so far we have only seen relatively few trees with yellowing leaves, though the winds have torn many from their branches, they are littering the ground, looks more like October.
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... so imagine that rather big degree of error being followed for 50 years.
This can be demonstrated as being potentially accurate as the fact they have had to revise pretty much every AGW prediction they have made.
I think most here believe is an intentional logical error for bias output and not accidental, which can be witnessed by the fact they rely on weather stations in one of the busiest airports in the world that is withing one of the most populated concrete jungles of he world. They MUST know this is creating bias which will then drive temperature readings above average giving false positives. Instead they use this obvious mistake as undeniable evidence so when you see this behaviour you know the simulator bias is engineered and not accidental.
The WRONG predictions over recent years of warmer than average summers prove it has a specifically warm bias as it did not turn out warm. It never says a cold summer ahead, NEVER I find that irrational, why? ...
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... it suggests there is significant logical errors in their programming. A logical error in programming means that the program will execute successfully unlike with syntax errors which will cause the simulation to crash, a logical error means it has been programmed syntactically correct but can contains errors in their understanding so it wont represent reality but will produce some results. Bias would be like an intentional logical error to get false positive results.
Anyway, the fact they have had such big errors means you can not take any long term climate predictions with any seriousness. Why, well think of taking a bearing when map reading, if you are off a tiny degree and walk a 100m or a km you won't have veered off track by much so the margin for error seems minor but if you follow that path for a 100 miles or a 1000 miles and you will be significantly far off so if they are getting mistakes on weekly forecasts which they do, they are more consistently wrong than right
On 03 Sep 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Its been pretty cold the last few nights around here in South Wales.
Saturday is dropping to 6 degrees which is relatively chilly, Autumn colours have been out here for some time too.
Most of the summer here has been around the 4 degrees below average mark which is with the UK figures from the Met Office showing that EVERY month this year has been below average.
Makes me wonder how can their millions of pounds worth of super computing power be so wrong, MO claimed May, June & July would be warmer than average at the beginning of the year.
One error is worrying in a simulator as it is hard to see how that minor error grows later down the line yet people take their 50 year climate disaster forecasts as fact. When they are wrong on the scale of getting polar opposite results from predicting warmer than average summer but getting a colder than average summer, which isn't unique to this year when considering the wettest year in 2012 of which was polar opposite to their forecasts
On 03 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Although showing 10 deg this morn it was still a lil parky due to the N or nnw breeze around, town folk commenting on the autumn taking back the summer that never quite said I'm here, max 13 deg. Mostly dull all day with some breaks in the sky at times to see the sun was in there somewhere, mostly dry today only a very brief light shower. Looks like slightly warmer days ahead making for very cool nights..
On 03 Sep 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the hedgerows are loaded with fruit this sept although the blackberry are rather poor this year probably due to lack of water. the squirrels are busy chomping thro my sunflowers now their heads are pointing down. The traditonal view is a bumper crop suggests a cold winter.
On 03 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Well, it's wedneay the 3rd and we're quickly back to sunny'ish with a chilly breeze, typical of the whole summer. My advice to the Met Officer's is go outside a couple of times per day and you'll see whether it's flippin cold or not, instead of glancing at a computer screen and reading off the minimum temperature from a weather station 200m away from a taxi-hold position at Heathrow. .... Paddy, I noticed the switch effect too but it started for us lowlanders late on Monday night. I let the dog out at 11pm and I could see my breath on the air and it felt very cold...a dramatic change from chilly nights to cold in just 24hrs. Last two nights have been very chilly too and as for daytime temps...well several trains have had the heating on already.
On 03 Sep 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Last couple of days it has felt more like November than September! today it is currently 11c cold northerly wind with drizzle ,certainly a cooler feeling summer this year here .It will be as interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out as the weather pattern has almost been maintained throughout the summer .
On 03 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Well an empty rain gauge greeted me at home yesterday. Been a while. And this despite a heavy shower at Croydon and some dark clouds around amongst the sunny spells. Chilly in the evening and again this morning as sunny spells has been the norm so far today.
On 03 Sep 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
RHYS JAGGER: yes indeed, but without those two main factors it wouldn't happen. It is interesting to see the difference in the corries collecting snow between last winter and the one preceding it. There was of course a considerable overlap, but this year more of the east facing corries collected it. Both winters feature a lot of snow coming from a lot of 'west' in the winds with varying degrees of 'north' in them and not like the SE based winds of the awful winters of 1982 and 1979. The distribution of ice in the Younger Dryas
glaciation suggests prevailing cold moist winds with a lot of 'west' in them, which is ominous in terms of the increase in snow patches in the last two years and the cooler Atlantic.
On 02 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, cold NNW wind blowing all day, drizzle off and on all day, heavier showers in the afternoon, occasional sunshine and just damn cold, max temp 12˚, back down to 9˚ by 10pm. It was as if someone had thrown a switch and it became autumn from one day to the next.
On 02 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
8 deg. this morning at 8.30 a.m a cool start, mostly cloudy as the day progressed with the odd drizzly shower and the odd glimpse of sunshine max 13 deg
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
...as I commented on their news blog "It’s the weekend and a Sunday to boot…surely this could have waited until Monday? ;) I’m not quite sure what to think at this point. Maybe a focus on the weather in the here and now rather than scary scenarios in a future far, far away generated by GIMP5* CMIP5. With any business you have to focus on the bread and butter not the knobs and twirls." *CMIP5 stands for 'Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5' however it does look like GIMPS when you scan a paper (!) - leave you all to ponder that, but it's to my mind more appropriate to where and how the computer model champions are bound and gagged by theory and why Hubert Lamb said we needed far more work on observations to aid our understanding of the ebbs and flows of climate. I really don't think he'd be surprised from current wavy jetstream/meridional contrasts which he saw+investigated. For the MetO the computer just keeps 'saying No'. Oh dear.
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
...cont..."Btw you could have followed the old ‘Be wary of warm and sunny Aprils’ for this summer and not gone far wrong. No super computer (££££!!!) needed ;)" === this is like the whole "it's the jetstream, it's the Atlantic" debacle of excuses we tax payers have had to put with these past few years (cold/wet winters/summers - take your pick). All these weather phenomenon are not new and are well understood, however so slave to the CO2=disaster scenario are the MetO that common sense is out the window (they are like upper level management enslaved to the latest fad theory that improves nothing & just p***ing off their workers & customer's alike). No wonder they are so woeful. I'd sack every manager because they have really lost their way being cash swindling 'climate gurus'...cont...
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
...cont... from a comment I left on the MetO blog on the 28th...."I’m confused. How does this: "looking back over past El Niños, you could have expected that a more unsettled summer might be on the cards for the UK", fit with this (from the JJA summary for policy makers)?
"However, El Niño is not known to have a significant influence on the climate across northern Europe at this time of year.
In the North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures to the south of
Greenland are cooler than in recent years; this pattern of sea-surface
temperatures is thought to increase the probability of above-average
pressure over northern Europe in summer. At this time of year such a
pressure pattern is often associated with above-average temperatures."
El Nino has an effect but it doesn’t. Cold Atlantic SST cause high pressure and low pressure? Which is it?
...cont...
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
See the MetO totally messed up their summer forecast again as seen in the Telegraph+GWPF. They really seem to have no idea. They say the El Nino didn't matter but then Slingo said yes it did. They really are reaching for excuses everytime it doesn't go to plan - that strongly suggests that more computational power is not the answer. As Piers has said for years more computer power only leads to a quicker wrong answer. All their assumptions are fundamentally wrong hence garbage in=garbage out. There's an old saying (based on observation) about being wary of fine Aprils leading to poor summer's but presumably models ignore this and Lamb types based upon years and years of the weather of these isles (rather than linear extrapolation of a current trend which models seem to use). So confusing is the array of messages from the models we had Julia Slingo directly contradicting the long term forecast (3 month summary for contingency planners)....cont...
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
...cont... So concentrating for now on what is more or less certain a trend towards less cool, fine and dry weather is likely for all at least for a time commencing this weekend and probably lasting well into next week for some and possibly more" === http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/ === // After a v. wet bank holiday (persistent rather than heavy) it's finally improved with blanket grey skies lifting to show patches of blue and beautiful billows of white with only a tinge of grey. Aug forecast held up well although last week slipped as solar influence lasted longer than expected? Sept 45d did show changes but overall v.happy. Good summer f'cast. The change ~24th was well predicted with the heat pump which missed us and brought some devastating storms to Holland (see weatheraction.wordpress.com). Hoping for some sunny late summer days to wring the last out of the garden before the cool nights draw in & the Atlantic throws more at us (as it tends to in Autumn)
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
...cont... GFS (well supported by the Control and Cluster runs) shows a full blooded change to Atlantic Westerlies and unsettled conditions for all from not long after midweek next week while GEM is still on the track of a strong Scandinavian High, strong SE winds and fronts moving up into the South from the SW. NAVGEM holds High pressure to the East in control as a ridge from it mainatins fine weather over much of the South and Central slice of the UK leavingUKMO and ECM with a much slacker looking High entering Britain at the end of the weekend and start to next week before ECM moves on to maintain fine conditions across the mjority of the South with only the NW seeing any meaningful attack from Atlantic Low pressure. So which is right? That is anyones guess this morning and I don't think it will be resolved until we get the High out West into the UK later this weekend before we can pin down anything that might evolve thereafter....cont...
On 02 Sep 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Gibby's thoughts after the morning model runs..."We still have three or four more days of this stark reminder that we are entering Autumn now with Northerly winds dominant over all of the UK until the end of the weekend with sunshine and showers and jolly cool nights. It looks like a band of cloud and occasional rain will slip South over the UK at the start of the weekend and behind this is when the High to the West of the UK makes it's move into the UK from the West. The main result of this will be to cut off the cool Northerly feed and bring warmer sunny spells by day though cool misty early Autumn nights are still likely. That is as far as any guarantees in the weather that follows goes this morning I'm afraid as all models then show a cocktail of various and very different options as far as what happens next week and beyond....cont....
On 02 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
I echo Maria's comments about the nights drawing in and it being colder. Came home just before 8pm and with heavy cloud around giving some sharp showers it was quite gloomy. Luckily my house traps some warmth as it was certainly chilly outside. Rain gauge had gathered another 11mm of rain. With a bit of sun breaking through there were some good rainbows to be seen. Clear night and cold sunny morning. Mist on the fields clearing as the sun strenghtened. Some shower cloud around on arrival in London.
On 01 Sep 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, cold N’ly wind blowing which kept going until evening when it abated somewhat. Cloudy with sunny breaks from time to time, reasonably warm at 16˚ in the sunshine, some beefy showers in the afternoon, brilliant cloudscapes with huge cumulus towers above the rain producing layer, back down to 11˚ by 9.30pm. RON: ah yes, leaf peeping conditions, can’t wait for them, nor can some of our veg.
On 01 Sep 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A cool but sunny start on the school run, cloud increased with a couple of showers later and so the pattern repeated, max 15 deg. warm on occasions when the sun was out, A small fire in the boiler tonight to take the edge off a cooling house for a couple of hours, noticing the nights closing in now.
On 01 Sep 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
As the grey skies and rain continued yesterday my friend mentioned that the forecast was dry with scattered showers. Wet with the odd dry spell was what happened - not very impressive for a day ahead. The Daily Mail weekend forecast was also adrift. Shame the rain took the edge of our local agricultural show. Roads leading from it had a brown tinge from the mud and splattered vehicles passed by. Interesting point on iceage about sunspot counts and techology. Is the number being inflated due to progress in the same way that it appears that tornadoes have increased? With satellite and other monitoring systems in place it is hard for a tornado to slip by unnoticed. Before it relied on being seen by somebody so it the increase real? Landscheidt had a system and if applied now we would be seeing a very weak solar cycle.
On 01 Sep 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Ron
I think one of the key hygiene factors for long lasting snow patches is consistency of wind direction through the winter snowfalls. The best scenario is fronts from the south west stalling with the warm front over the southern highlands, as then NE facing carries get absolutely plastered with snow, not rain. If fronts from SW go all the way through, you get rain, but the heaviest snow I saw in Argyll was when almost no snow penetrated north of Kintail, whereas feet could fall further south.
There's a lot of factors involved in the snow lasting through summer and it' not just snowfall depths and summer temperatures.....
On 01 Sep 2015, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:
Just got the new forecast and as someone who loves deciduous trees and wallowed in the glories of several visits to New England in the fall, it would appear things look good for our own equivalent in the Highlands this year. Nuff said
On 01 Sep 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
And what's going to happen to Bhutan's hydro-power when the ice age hits us and temperatures in the Himalaya plummet to record lows? Mr McGrath needs to swat up on the 4 or 5 solar and orbital cycles which are about to bring about the next ice age. 10 years or 50, it's started and it's all downhill from here for this civilisation. Enjoy the ride folks!! In the meantime have a giggle at a truly naive science scribes famous last words.... >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33959562 <<
On 01 Sep 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
After a relatively quiet R5, R4 period in NZ a week ago we have this at the end of an R3 http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/71623331/wild-weather-continues-to-batter-nelson-region and http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/71582244/Wet-wild-weather-leaves-widespread-flooding. We've been lucky to miss the wind but have had very heavy rain.
On 31 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, mostly cloudy in a NW’ly breeze, occasional sunny spells when it actually got quite hot, max temp 19˚, but cooler when the cloud returned. Beefy shower around 4.30pm and a little more later at night. 12˚ at 9.30pm, feeling markedly different, i.e. colder than last night.
On 31 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A cool start with sunny spells, warming up a bit but then soon clouding over and a hefty downpour or 2 with some hail mixed in feeling naturally cooler and fresher after, max 16/17 deg. A battle of warm and cool air we have seen so often this summer, well with the kids 9 wk break over I can officially say the best weather was in the first week with the rest nothing really to write home about, usually the first wk or 2 back is nicer than the hols. so time will tell..
On 31 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
CHRISTINE: thanks for that URL, I've circulated it on my facebook friends list. I by chance met Helen Rennie on my last trip to the Cairngorms as she was walking down after skiing on one of the largest patches a fortnight ago.. No doubt this, and the 50 year record cold winter in Tasmania has been due to more 'GOREbull warming
On 31 Aug 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Some fantastic pictures of the ice up in Scotland. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153183611771376&set=pcb.411532632380127&type=1&permPage=1
On 31 Aug 2015, Gerry Surrey Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
A wobble at the end of this month's forecast as we had some heavy rain on Saturday evening after a bright start. Yesterday was generally overcast with the cloud obscuring the Gatwick takeoffs but with some rain overnight. Heavy cloud this morning and with a hefty burst of rain that has made an impact on my gauge. Rain from Saturday was 9.5mm. Looks like a couple more have arrived since I emptied it. Booker in the Telegraph has a good piece of the MoBeeb split. Apparently we will see little difference if Metra are the new providers as they do the graphics already and the presenters may Tupe over. More interestingly is that the MetO will still provide all the data but the key is what you do with it. Plug it into your global warming computer and guess what happens. Comment on Iceage BBC reporting on gritter & plough prep for 'snow-risk season' in Lincolnshire. Have the Met forecast a warm winter?
On 31 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Well the August WA forecast went hicupping along almost nailed to the bullseye but the strings of showers, as usual, side-stepped NE Derbyshire most of the time. Monitoring the rest of the country (I drive all over the UK from Inverness to Painton so need to know), I saw most areas get hit by major thunderstorms, and several times too. Even NE Derbyshire got some! The last few days of August came good with showers dying out and warming up a bit. Another hiccup overnight and through this morning with persistent rain but better weather for after lunch-time is on its way, so back on track. I noticed all the farmers going bonkers getting their crops in over the weekend. Timed it perfectly, although I notice a local field of oats was 30% flattened by rain last week. Never seem able to recover after heavy rain...pity...I love oats, very dainty, pretty, delicate plant, and a most nutritious of sustenances.....
On 31 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: I note your comments on the autumn ambience. Likewise myself reporting this. Our more 'continental' situation here means the Rowan berries have been red for a couple of weeks. Several maple species here have been showing the earliest leaf colouring I've seen since 2010--and then. Standard charts are showing a cool northerly for much of the week and Tue/Wed are showing max daytime tempa at sea level of 12C and that is usually a fair bet in that kind of airstream, for snow on the Cairngorm tops. Looking at the GFS charts it looks as if northern Fennoscandia is going to get a couple or more true winter blasts in September. SHAUN(Wales) you are right and the key area to watch is the Mamore range of the West-Central Grampians.
On 30 Aug 2015, C View wrote:
As Piers makes his bid to supply forecasts to the BBC lets just hope this other internet based foecaster doesn't get the job. Here is a section of their forecast for the summer...''Pressure is expected to be slightly higher than average across the bulk of the British Isles, along with a good deal of Europe during August. This is likely to lead to a warmer than average month across the British Isles, rainfall is currently forecast to be close to normal '' Completly at odds with the summer we have had and which the MO today said was cooler and wetter than normal.
On 30 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30 but promising to be a cracking day, and so it turned out to be: getting really hot - well 22˚ on the thermometer, but quite a bit hotter in full sun - for late August and with a refreshing SW breeze. If the MO is to be believed, it’s downhill from now all week temp-wise with a NW wind setting in, so today would have been the last real summer’s day. 14˚ at 9pm.
On 30 Aug 2015, Maria( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A cool start 10 deg. @ 8 a.m rising to 15 by 11.00 cloud won most of today but there were some nice warmer sunny spells mixed in on a few occasions throughout the day, max 17/18 deg. temp dropped off around 6 pm
On 30 Aug 2015, janespain wrote:
Great news Piers! We're with you all the way!
Daily Mail - very useful publicity for Piers (even if it is in the mail.......) It doesn't use it as an open attack but rather is cleverly worded - hedging their bets in case Piers gets the gig. Overall trying to link the apparent delusions (my wording) of the Corbyn boys. Not working - great publicity for Piers' work.
"Jeremy Corbyn's older brother who dismissed global warming as 'nonsense' joins the race to provide BBC's weather bulletins after it ditched Met Office"
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3215408/Jeremy-Corbyn-s-older-brother-dismissed-global-warming-nonsense-race-provide-BBC-s-weather-bulletins-ditched-Met-Office.html#ixzz3kIfrlatA
On 30 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
(Relates to 29.08, not published for some reason): 12˚C at 7.30, bright & warm day, if somewhat blustery from the SW, top temp 22˚, most enjoyable, still 17˚ at 7pm but getting cooler. == July & August have been pretty exactly as Piers predicted, with local variations and exceptions. This summer has not been as bad as 2012, i.e. not as cold or wet, but coming a little too close to it for comfort. Our neighbour had to turn his attempted hay into haylage, it was just never dry enough.
On 30 Aug 2015, DaveV wrote:
The article in the i 'newspaper', struck me as summing up the mainstream media. On one side was a heavily biased non-story from a widely discredited organisation, stating the usual dogma of CO2 and warming. And then on the other side was an article on WeatherAction's bid for the BBC contract, written in a way as to discredit Piers and no mention of the proven track record.
On 29 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mix of sunshine and showers yesterday max 16/17 deg.
Dull start today, brighter as the day progressed with some warm humid sunny spells & big clouds heat building after lunch, max 18 deg. towering clouds increased and around 2.45 pm an almighty downpour a loud crack of thunder followed by extremely loud heavy rain with small hail mixed in at one point, air cooler after, air seems to be switching from muggy to cool this evening, 14 now at 21.38 pm
On 29 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... no coincidence the glacier witnessed there first.
I understand British weather does not represent world climate but we're not the only country reporting bad weather.
On 29 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
@C View what rubbish are they talking now. The IPCC admit a hiatus so how can they claim the pause is nonsense.
They said warming would return but to make out this year is recording warm and by a mile is crazy, European countries claiming to have experienced no summer, US having had an extreme winter as well as experiencing early snows already.
Britain has experienced below average temps according to the Met Office every month this year. Also according to their data last year we experienced 10 months below average and the other 2 months were average.
With recent claims of signs if glaciers forming on Scottish mountains, following a bad winter there. What part of record warming this year explains the glacier formation in Scotland and the biggest part of 2 years being average to below average. The first place the UK would experience ice age conditions would surely be the northern peaks of Scotland being near the arctic circle & higher elevation being licked by lower temps first
On 29 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
South Wales has been pretty dismal over August, think August may be worse than the previous 3 months and I suspect may be the fourth consecutive month the UK experienced below average temps.
Weather seemed nice today, I hear people describe it at nice but I think they are fooled by it being relatively nice as the sun has been shining but is has been 4 to 5 degrees below average today.
On 29 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, bright & warm day, if somewhat blustery from the SW, top temp 22˚, most enjoyable, still 17˚ at 7pm but getting cooler. == July & August have been pretty exactly as Piers predicted, with local variations and exceptions. This summer has not been as bad as 2012, i.e. not as cold or wet, but coming a little too close to it for comfort. Our neighbour had to turn his attempted hay into haylage, it was just never dry enough.
On 28 Aug 2015, C View wrote:
Stop worrying about the cold Saturday's Independent confidently shouts from the front page that 2015 will be the hottest year ''by a mile'' a bold claim indeed with three months of data still uncollected
On 28 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C overnight, 11˚ at 7.30, waring up through the morning in a good W’ly breeze, getting to 20˚ by midday. Humid all the way through and by 2pm clouds started building from the West and it looked like we were going to get downpours, but as can so often happen in showery conditions, we here only had a few drops whereas areas further west & north had pretty beefy showers. Although it was a really great day weather-wise, it was impossibly to not feel a whiff of autumn in the air, not to mention the fact that the rowan berries are beginning to turn orange. 13˚ by 9.30pm, lovely moonlit night, full moon tomorrow.
On 28 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
August went pretty well as promised, but final period not so good, though there may be a big high pressure sitting over us later according to MObeeb. GFS and MObeeb not exactly in sync either.
On 28 Aug 2015, JohnE wrote:
I will believe this when it actually happens, taken from an Exactweather email The last time the Gulf Stream had what would be classed as a 'minor' blip in comparison to our current and more prolonged scenario, we experienced the horrific winter of 1962/63... CURRENT GULF STREAM/NORTH ATLANTIC SST IMAGE IN LINK BELOW https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather/photos/pcb.917299018318017/917298311651421/?type=1&theater The Gulf Stream started showing signs of waning towards the end of last year, and although it should have impacted our winter with some much colder and snowier conditions than it actually did, there is also an important 'lag effect' with this process that should be taken very seriously for later this autumn and for the upcoming winter of 2015/16 as the overall situation has worsened. This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how this heats this vital ocean current, and even more so as to how it impacts our long term
On 28 Aug 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
One sharp shower around 9am in London but then a lovely day. Breeze strengthened during the afternoon. Moonlit night and a mist on the fields overnight. With the sun rising later the mist persists longer in the morning. Chilly cycle to the station. Interesting to see who wins the holiday weekend forecast.
On 28 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS charts showing a very cool end to the month and start of September ( ? snow in the higher Grampians) with just a chance of hot continental air clipping SE England. They are also showing a decidedly cold blast over northern Fennoscasndia, so that late- lying snow on Klimpfjall etc may get an early boost. Also suggesting a very cool northerly around 10th Sept for B& I with presumably a greater chance of snow for the higher Grampians---BUT--let's remember, this is GFS!
On 28 Aug 2015, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:
HARRIS: great to see that as what you put on the Ice Age Now comment isn't all that clear.
On 27 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C overnight, 12˚ at 7.30, quite sunny morning in a S’ly breeze that gradually veered into the W as the Lows moved N. Quite warm in the sun despite the breeze, but again, the minute it disappeared behind clouds one felt cold. 20˚ max, some showers in the afternoon. We heard from someone who drives a minibus that a stretch of road about a mile from us got such a downpour that she had to stop the vehicle and wait it out for a few minutes for lack of visibility and the road getting flooded in an instant. Wild Jet Stream Age = extremes cheek to jowl. 11˚ at 10pm.
On 27 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cool cloudy rainy some showers heavy, with some dry warmish sunny spells, max temp 16 deg.
On 27 Aug 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Jeremy's used coffee cup sold for £51 on ebay
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/171900945055
On 27 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Ron/Harris === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2015/08/27/massive-increase-in-scottish-snow-patches/ === I've turned the 08-15 figures into a chart. Hockey stick!!!!
On 27 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
HARRIS: not surprising, but absolutely fascinating. Worth putting it on the Ice Age Now site as well.
On 27 Aug 2015, Harris Keillar - annual subscriber wrote:
meant to add this table to the snowpatch record - showing a fairly significant increase in the number of snow patches which could be used as a proxy for a cooling climate - at least in NW montane Europe:
Same areas looked at every year – some from the road and others on the hill:
15 630
14 281
13 81
12 72
11 36
10 34
09 35
08 34
On 27 Aug 2015, Harris Keillar - annual subscriber wrote:
Just out - the snow patch survey for this year - HUGE increase on previous years - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nypn74h1ljdau95/snow%20survey%20-%20august%202015.xlsx?dl=0
[Would it be possible to HTMLise links??]
On 27 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
( 26th ) after heavy rain at 1 am later in the morn. 8 am a bright and sunny chilly start, 11 deg by 10 am, soon clouding over and more showers, very dark sky and thunder for around 30 mins later, max 14 deg. a glimpse of sunset between the cloud this eve. 8 deg now at 1.23 a.m
On 26 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, cloudy and sunny for a while but then a spell of drizzle on a stiff and cool S’ly breeze which lasted more or less all day. However, by late morning it really brightened up and the temperature rose to 20˚, the breeze by then was somewhat warmer and refreshing. Whenever the sun disappeared behind clouds it got noticeably coller though, as we have been used to all summer. 12˚ by 10pm. == Gerry, I think you’re right, there most likely are commercial/economic reasons behind the MO & Beeb divorce, there is little hope there of an awakening to meteorological/solar reality.
On 26 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks CRAIG. Whatever the extent of regional survey, it's been, and is, an exceptional year for persistent snow beds. Last summer, at the least the early part of it was too, following one of the longest periods of winter snowfall and duration on record. One can only ponder what would have been the case if a winter like that had been followed by a summer like this. I feel we should pay special attention to the Mamores, Glencoe and the Cairngorms and perhaps the West Drumochter hills. It has been interesting to note at the last site, the persistent snowbeds have not always been in the old corries ( cirques) that presumably were active hanging- valley glaciers during the Younger Dryas The distribution this year has also been slightly different from last year ---and now only a few weeks until we might expect decent 'refills'!
On 26 Aug 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Craig- Ron interesting comments on the snowpatches. It encouraged me to get my copy of Scotlands Winter Mountains by the climbing guide Martin Moran out for a read. It has a good chapter on the weather and the history of snow fields and their survival rate over summers. The records of the observatory on Ben Nevis which ran for 20 years from 1884 to 1903 are included along with a section on semi- permanent snowfields. Interestingly the Aonach Mor east face that Mr Cameron filmed is mentioned with the words "occasional survival". Mr Camerons film shows an entire gully complete! Garbh Choire Mor on Braeriach features a fair bit with the interesting fact that the snowpacki there has only disappeared three times, in 1933,1959 and 1996. Moran keeps a fairly open mind on climate and it would be interesting to hear his thoughts now after the hard winters of 2010 ect,( the book was published in 1998). He also mentions the work of the Croatian Milutin Milankovitch who established ice age cycles
On 26 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote: wrote:
Ron - just caught up on the snow patch forum. This is Iain Cameron "As you might expect, there's an absolute stack of information to get through, and doing this is going to take some time. Some reports I'm still waiting for, so it's likely that the full total is not going to be available for about a week or so.
However, to give a taste of where we are, the running total I have so far is 426. BUT, this excludes most of the Cairngorms and virtually all of the NW Highlands! Although the total may not be quite as high as 1000, it's certainly going to be well in excess of 500. Bear in mind that the total last year was 281, so this year will see at least a doubling of that. "
=== http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,166567,page=17 === there are some stunning pics on his Twitter feed === https://twitter.com/theiaincameron
On 26 Aug 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Rain and more rain as forecast of course. My gauge recorded 5mm on Sunday, 25mm on Monday and a further 5mm yesterday. More rain this morning on arriving at London Bridge and there has been a squally storm in the City. The BBC-MetO split is commercial. BBC must tender for the service on a regular basis and this time have opted for a cheaper quote as they are being squeezed to stop wasting money. Suggestions of a row over dumbing down of forecasts but it is likely to be just economics.
On 26 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
.....there is also delay to take into account. A powerful solar flare can take 2 days to reach Earth but a weaker one may take 5 days and not have the same effect on the atmosphere due to the slower, lower energy plasma cloud. There is often a rise in sfu and auroral activity yet no apparent cause. Lately there have been many huge coronal holes. These are gigantic areas of the Sun's atmosphere where the complex magnetic fields which usually inhabit this region are in a neutral state, neither particularly positive or negative. This has the effect of accelerating the solar wind straight out from the visible solar surface, like water from a garden hose. So coronal holes can be pointing toward Earth, spewing huge amounts of high energy particles, for days on end. This is usually followed by an uptick in typhoon/hurricane strength, or just general storminess. Watch what happens to lightning across Europe (sat24.com) near midday as a flare hits us or with a coronal hole pointing our way.
On 26 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Alan Worthington.... there are many variables and they couple and stack increasing storminess without necessarily showing a single noteworthy cause. The aurora radar on spaceweather.com can show a strong aurora but with the Bz magnetic field pointing north, but the aurora is usually strong when the field swings south i.e. after a strong solar wind stream has passed the Earth. If there's lots of activity on the Sun's visible surface, this energy can reach Earth in minutes. The Sun and Earth are joined by a magnetic portal (NASA description), through which magnetic/electrical energy is poured into the Earth's poles, like a huge umbilical cord. Strong x-ray activity in a region pointing toward Earth can cause mobile phones and laptops to crash within just a couple of hours of it occurring. So no one thing drives the storms, but several, all magnetic/electric, mostly invisible, all increasing voltage potentials & electric charge in the Earth and it's current sheet to drive storms... cont'd
On 26 Aug 2015, Mike (45d subs) wrote:
There is a massive coronal hole on the Sun and solar wind should hit Earth by this weekend. Hopefully it will flip the Jet Stream and let summer return to Britain and Ireland. BBQs and suncream on standby!
On 25 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, noticeably cooler, light N’ly breeze for most of the day, thankfully no rain, though dramatic dark skies for much of the day with the occasional glimpse of the sun. Max temp 17˚ feeling humid & muggy, midges going berserk in sheltered places, especially where we were digging tatties, 10˚ by 10pm. == Fred: interesting comment re R5&4, the R5 was not so severe for us but the R4 yesterday was, big time, in terms of rainfall amounts and wind.
On 25 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some more heavy showers today and constant rain, top temp 16 deg. Cooler at times though the wind has switched to sw and high humidity 94% making for a muggy evening. Irish weather online commented on the below average temps last 8mths and also noted today early leaf change giving an early autumn feel, some people noticing it in early August. Have made some ketchup with the glut of tomatoes but my plants have deteriorated early this year, starting a few weeks ago, production better this year but still a very quick season to work with, summer cabbages were massive and the winter veg looking good for all the rain, flowers went very leggy this year searching for more sunlight possibly, greenfly also a prob this yr but more ladybirds moving on in, wasps dropping out around the place the last couple of weeks, also seen more swallows today maybe getting ready to leave early.
On 25 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Alan - the KP is just one factor to look at indicative of energy from space. Most times R periods do not correlate to KP index activity. There is also the lag, so for example Vikings would see an aurora and know a storm was *coming*. Our 'atmosphere' is ~100km and has many layers - ionosphere, mesosphere etc - to propagate through until it reaches the troposphere which is where we experience weather.
On Saturday there was an M3 solar flare and an earth facing coronal hole. Also watch the bz levels when they tip south and the proton density. A good place to watch the indices is === spaceweathernews.com ===. Over time you start picking it up. Hopefully Bob's site will be up soon as that should help monitor also.
On 25 Aug 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Any comments on this? Bit of a Mobeeb love in going on here despite the divorce
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34009289
On 25 Aug 2015, Alan Worthington wrote:
Hi All. Any experts on this blog? I had some big thunderstorms in Cardiff on Saturday evening but noticed on this website that the increase in solar activity (Kp) appeared to take place on the Sunday after the stormy spell. I was under the impression the increased solar activity causes the storminess. Anyone with a better understanding than me able to explain? Thanks Al
On 25 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Craig, Shaun, Paddy... I agree that there may be a dark-side agenda behind this Met Office publicity stunt. Who is the driver? Maybe NASA / NOAA? When I see the words Auntie Beeb, the picture in my mind is of Uncle Fester from The Adams Family. The whole gentle, helpful, family friendly, all knowing facade they project is just a smokescreen behind which is a political machine for controlling the masses...with a bit of real news thrown in every day to lend the deception some credibility....... Weather has generally been a bit warm and humid but quickly switching to cool with heavy showers on a regular basis. Has been very cool by late evening and quite cold overnight, almost to the point where the bedroom windows need closing.
On 25 Aug 2015, Fred wrote:
Surprised it hasn't ben brought up yet, but the incredibly intense and damaging rains of yesterday 24th and awful conditions onprevious days.....was exactly predicted by Piers with R5 and R4 double hit 20-24 Aug. This should be put out there, he even described that there'd be double lows. A months worth of rain in 24 hrs in Kent, NE and Wales and SW also deluged. Piers release it and show all as it was a very notable event bang on cue.
On 25 Aug 2015, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:
Well there you haveit--GFS now, since yesterday, going for quite a different projection for late Aug/early Sept., with colder air not getting to B&I until the8/9th Sept. So much for the self-confidence of standard models.
On 25 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A brighter morning some nice sunny spells though not very warm only 16 deg clouded over in the aft. mostly clear starry sky air quite fresh at midnight.
On 24 Aug 2015, Chris Mistry wrote:
I know Piers and his brother Jeremy are close unlike the Milliband brothers and the Gallagher brothers but can he keep Labour party politics out of WeatherAction?I support everything Piers has to say about so called global warning, his forecasts are spot on,keep on attacking politicians from left and right,mostly left,and Prince Charles,but don't use WeatherAction to campaign for Jeremy.
On 24 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, dry earlier on but wet thereafter all day, SE’ly breeze at first, quite still at times later, so the rain that lasted off & on all day was at times extremely heavy and slow moving. Max temp 15˚, 14˚ again at 9.30pm. == Yes, Shaun, I agree that there must be something behind this divorce that is to either Mo’s or Beeb’s publicity/duplicity advantage, so what is the driving force?
On 24 Aug 2015, Ron Greer( subscriber) wrote:
GFS has been struggling all day to deal with the late August-early September period. Rather different from Piers' view and if they and not he are correct, then we might see an early covering of snow on the hills. Interesting, but past t results indicate that GFS is not reliable this far out
On 24 Aug 2015, Mark Lane wrote:
My Mum always said that after they moved to Exeter the quality of the Met Office forecasts went down.
On 24 Aug 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
you start it Richard. I love it when someone says `can someone do something`
On 24 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks Paddy. It was a good laugh whilst it lasted, but let's see what the new guys come up with in terms of science fiction and perhaps a new Star Trek-type character will emerge to fill the void.
On 24 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... warmist spin until the new company gets it wrong year after year and they start all over again. I wouldn't be surprised if the new company will eventually employ some MO staff, wouldn't be surprised if the new company is under similar control and have no doubt they will be no less bias if not more bias than the MO.
There is always a driving force behind stuff, we don't just do big changes like this for the sake of it, it won't just be a money matter either, the government has been pretty good at wasting money and seem to have no qualms over spending so I assume either MO was having too many dissenters inside or it is purely a credibility move, PR stunt. Entirely speculative of course but can't believe they have done this for money matters alone and I find it hard the BBC would just do a U turn on its warming agenda so either we will get more of the same or even more extremist views.
Weather has been bad here still, 14 degrees Sat, 6 degrees below avg with loads of rain, h
On 24 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
Regarding the MObeeb split... sounds like a PR stunt, I could be wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if it is an attempt at gaining some credibility.
With the MO having made some big mistakes over the years like predictions for hot drought ridden summers that turned out to be the wettest on record and below avg temps, mild winter that turns out to be brutal to name a few and more recently this year in advance they predicted warmer than avg April, May and June I believe it was with a warm summer, but we have had May, June and July all below average and August here looking to be below too.
People start to question eventually even when the propaganda machine is pumping out warmist agenda 24/7.
So to gain credibility you find a better, ore experienced, or more funded or what ever MORE you want to add weather organisation that will do better and for a better price maybe.
There will be loads of news stories about it to hype, people are sold the scam and just carrying on getting dr
On 24 Aug 2015, Richard Tate wrote:
Can someone in the UK start an online petition for Piers + WeatherAction to become the new National Weather Service!
It might create a bit of positive media?
On 23 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
15˚C at 7.30, stiff but mild SE’ly breeze all day, max temp with us just nudging 20˚, much warmer out of the wind and inland, where the sky was cloudless & brilliant blue for our Sunday picnic, again another day for making up for all the cold and wet of this summer. Very humid, but not unpleasant in the breeze. Starry evening and half moon, 14˚ by 10pm. == Ah well, RON: I think it was you who first used the term Mobeeb, so while everyone is having a good laugh about the divorce of Mo and Beeb, you could perhaps sue them both for rendering your coinage useless?
On 23 Aug 2015, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:
Forgot to mention that Met.ie had a yellow rain warning up yesterday for us and other counties for 23rd midnight - 6pm we had another hefty shower this afternoon and remained grey n dull, but the worst was had last night. Max 15 deg. today. Well soggy in the garden... Perfect forecast timing again Piers another success period to add to the many!
On 23 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Sad that we will not be able to call them the 'MObeeb' any more. It made them sound like the bad guys in a Star Trek movie or Dr,Who.
On 23 Aug 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
I think Piers should have the long distance contract for the weather forecast as he has nailed the bad weather for the last 24 hrs we received 45mm with some thunder and lightening yesterday afternoon
On 23 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote: wrote:
Gerry - pulled out the missed comment. //BBC Met Office. Hmm strange. They had this suggested way back in 2010 when the contract went out to tender and they won it anyway. Can't see what has caused this as their warmist aims seem to align with CAGW alarmists infesting both organisations (I believe there are very good meteorologists there that are silent as they don't want to terminate their career by speaking up). Is this just a simple cost cutting exercise as stated and the usual 'contract out to tender' free market process? What is surprising is as Hilary Ostrov mentioned over at Bishop Hill in the comments "in what may well be the ***fastest response time evaah*** (particularly on a weekend!) from the U.K. Met Office aka "the jewel in the crown" ... ". I sure as heck did not see that one coming. Shows how they can respond when it suits them.
On 23 Aug 2015, C View wrote:
I heard on the BBC news at lunchtime today that the BBC has decided to end it's conract with the UK Met Office however there was no mention of who the new provider wil be.
On 23 Aug 2015, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Goodbye Melt Office, goodbye BBC!
On 23 Aug 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Thank you Bob, I sometimes think I'm just going potty when I notice these things. I took a picture of the sun, through my livingroom window, with my phone and one of the reflections even seems to show a flare.
On 23 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Does this mean we get a refund on the public money that's been wasted on this grossly expensive piece of useless technology??? Hmmmm! Doubt it really! >>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29789208 <<<
On 23 Aug 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Big news - BBC splitting from MetO as they have awarded the contract to another company that so far has not been named. BBC refusing to say much about the tender process other than like other tax-payer funded organisations they are required to get best value. Blow to the prestige of the MetO no doubt and the loss of over £30m. The last 2 days have been the warmest since the start of July. My last post seemed to get lost somewhere but noted big change in evening temp between London and home on Friday but yesterday evening continued to be warm after a sharp easterly breeze dropped. Cloud today and rain began at around 11. Wind changed to SW on the newly fitted weathervane. Iceagenow reporting early snow in Canada and record minimum and low maximums in central US - 10 to 15degF below the average. Makes the warmest ever claims look dubious.
On 23 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
WOW! Get a load of this folks....... >>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34031785 <<<
On 23 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Bob Weber..... so are you proposing that the increased x-ray activity also increases the visible light levels, because the amount of extra light would have to be huge to make our eyes respond. This apparent brightness could be due to a period of lower brightness followed by a rapid increase in brightness. Maybe this rapid change is what we notice as an apparent brightening, but not necessarily an actual brightness increase? >>> http://www.telescope-optics.net/eye_intensity_response.htm <<< Interesting article, throws some light on the subject (hehehe)... So is this visible increase due to the sudden increase in x-ray output; is that something which occurs normally, more x-rays = more photons?
On 23 Aug 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Meto lose BBC contract to supply forecasts. How sad. lol. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34031785 Meto has become complacent with a poor skill level so no wonder they got dumped.
On 23 Aug 2015, Kevin Harrow wrote:
Gosh the Beeb and the Met are getting a divorce! Apparently the Met has discovered that the Beeb was advertising for a new suitor on Ashley Madison.
On 23 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A grey day again yesterday and muggy but cooler and fresher at times also here, some really heavy rain later in the day and in the night big loud rain lovely to listen to from indoors. Max 16/17 deg. 13 now at 10 a.m grey, light rain high humidity with a slight cool breeze.
On 23 Aug 2015, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
The BBC has apparently fired the met office and is going to give the TV weather work to either the New Zealand national forecaster or Meteo "The Met Office said it was ‘disappointed’ by the decision." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207392/Met-Office-fury-BBC-gives-contract-worth-millions-foreigners.html
On 23 Aug 2015, occassionally David wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34031785
According to this, the Met Office have lost their BBC contract.
On 22 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
13˚C at 7.30, cloudy but dry all day, S’ly breeze, some sun early and late, max temp 19˚, strange mixture at times of muggy and coolish, 13˚ at 9.30pm, slight rain showers late.
On 22 Aug 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
An excellent video by David
dilly explaining what is happening to our climate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4hbKF5-qUE&feature=youtu.be
On 22 Aug 2015, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
20.40 and feels horribly oppressive, I am glad I don`t have breathing problems. 21 degrees out and 85% humidity but it feels like the tropics. Not a breath of wind. Ominous horrible evening, I truly hate it just now. Absolutely spot on, could not have been better as far as I am concerned
On 22 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Yay! Derbyshire gets thunderstorms! We got hail on the back garden about 3/4 the diameter of a 1p. That's after they had been melting for about 60 seconds. I reckon penny sized would have been common had I looked around more but the following rain drops were nearly as big...so rather than practise drowning I observed under cover. It's now 6.30 and it looks like there's plenty more to come on the rain radar..
On 22 Aug 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA wrote:
@Christine, you saw the sun brighten too!? Yesterday I was working on my new "electric weather" app, and while refreshing the data I noticed the x-ray flux kept climbing literally by the minute, and then I looked at the GOES X-ray flux graphic, to see that there was a solar flare underway right then. Pier's home page has the x-ray graphic down on the left side. The red line is the long channel flux, and it's the one used for designating flare magnitudes. So I stepped outside as the flare was still in the mid "C" range to work on the yard, and under blue skies I clearly saw an uptick in the sun's brightness. 15 minutes later when I rechecked the data, the flux had reached the higher "M" level. The F10.7 cm flux during that long duration 4 hour flare was 118.6 sfu @ 20:00UTC, then fell to 115.2 by 23:00. Aug F10 ave @ 106 sfu/day. 2015 ave at 122.8, and will be under 120/day by early fall. 8 days <92 flux=> COOL evidence=> http://iceagenow.info/2015/08/record-cold-across-central-u-s/
On 22 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Christine Gaskill... People have commented on an extra bright sun many times on this blog, so it is a documented occurrence; you are not imagining things. The reason could be connected to the humungous great coronal hole or more likely the growing sunspot on the Earth-side of the Sun, but a reliable scientific explanation still eludes us.An extremely clean area of atmosphere seems likely at first but our eyes aren't sensitive enough to differentiate such subtle differences in brightness. Solar flares often emit vast quantities of ultraviolet light which, although we can't see it directly, may hurt our eyes if we look toward the sun, reinforcing the feeling that the Sun is actually brighter. Well it is brighter, but the extra brightness is beyond our vision, so we just feel the extra burning sensation in the retina..........Hot & very humid, and the weather machine says RAIN. Thunderstorms heading across France toward Devon. Should hit late evening but storms could appear earlier.
On 22 Aug 2015, Ben Farrington, Moray - sub wrote:
Another fine day up on the Moray coast, Temperatures have been in the high teens to the low 20's for most of the month. Even with an unsettled outlook for month end August has been by a long margin the best month of summer compared to the much cooler and unsettled July. For this region up in NW Moray anyway, any S or SW winds humid or not usually deliver good weather to these parts as the highlands take most of the rain. So many thanks JS for taking a route up through the country rather than down across from the NW bringing with it some actually warm weather!
On 22 Aug 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Had my leaving do last night at Victoria and left about 9.45 to walk to the station. T-shirt heat. On arriving home on a delayed service at around 11 it was time to put the fleece on. Classic demonstration of the urban heat island effect that if properly applied would make a lot of the warming disappear. Warm and sunny this morning. Gatwick operating eastern pattern this morning. Sat24 showing cloud moving from Cornwall NNE and the majority of England clear. Their wind forecast map doesn't show a circulation to match the cloud movement - odd?
On 22 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
High humidity a scattered shower, mostly cloudy max 17 deg. yesterday, sound familiar..
On 21 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, sunny most of the day with an agreeable S’ly breeze, humid, max temp 21˚, cloudy with some rain during the middle of the day, sunny end, 14˚ by 11.30pm.
On 21 Aug 2015, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Today it was coolish and cloudy in my part of the Chilterns until about 4.00pm when the sky cleared and the temperature shot up to 27 degrees! The sun seems extremely bright this evening, oddly so!
On 21 Aug 2015, Kent Weald wrote:
Been watching the Meto 5 day forecast for this area with interest regarding the lows heading in.
Sun and Mon were this morning showing heavy rain most of the day esp Mon with light rain on Tuesday. Now at 4pm there is a heavy burst at 1pm on Sunday dissolving to slight shower by 4pm. Monday is now light rain from 1 - 4 pm.
Big change that. We wait and see. Good to see our tax revenue is supporting accurate short range forecasting....
On 21 Aug 2015, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey/Kent border wrote:
Hottest month - what stupidity. What is the accuracy of their data? Oh yes, greater than 0.08 so it is a meaningless statement based on political propaganda for COP. The BBC won't report when it is shredded as being misleading of course. Meanwhile in the real world more low records are being set. I recall a comparison that appeared which showed record lows were over 3 times records highs for the year. Rain came across in the evening and getting back home around 10.30 it was just starting to set in but was light and barely wetted the gauge. Sunny day so far with clouds pushed along by a SW wind. Sat24 shows lots of rain for Sun & Mon with a double low developing. Will it prove accurate? Anyone know what model they use?
On 21 Aug 2015, HAF wrote:
August 20, 2015
The Latest Climate Kerfuffle
By Patrick Michaels
Are political considerations superseding scientific ones at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?
http://www.realclearpolicy.com/blog/2015/08/20/the_latest_climate_kerfuffle_1397.html
On 20 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
14˚C at 7.30, sunny morning with a S’ly breeze, temps rising to 22˚ max by midday, then the fog moved in off the sea and it was quite grey but still muggy. 14˚ at 10pm, feeling humid and mild.
On 20 Aug 2015, C View wrote:
Never mind the cold and wet, the non summer in Sweden and Norway or the very cold end of July in B & I, rejoice that July was the hottest month ever since records began by a "sinificant margin" of 0.08 deg c. Wow what a scorcher!! read this nonsense here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34009289
On 20 Aug 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
They're having a laugh! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34009289 << You know, it's weird but, you expect to be at war with the governments of other nations, yet today, we seem to be at war with our own governments....how strange is change? Just about as strange as THEY want to make it, and they're doing a pretty good job so far...
On 20 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Thinking of winter. Not had a real cold Feb since 2012 & that was only SE focused (it was sub -10°C & had needle snow here).Feb 2013 was cold but not particularly cold. So are we are due Scandi-Easterly influence. // If you look at http://www.solen.info/solar/ you can see solar flux has been on the decline since ~Dec 2014 and since March (St. Patrick's day solar storm) we have had a fair amount of geomagnetic instability as shown by the AP index. Much of this has been from relatively minor impacts such as co-rotating regions, coronal hole streams and the odd minor flare or filament eruption. Bar a late peak our sun is heading to sleep. We keep watching. ..
On 20 Aug 2015, Ron Greer( 6 month subs) wrote:
Yes, excellent video from Harris and despite any warmer spell later this month does not look as these large snow patches will go before September. There s no doubt that the Mamore hills are a' litmus test ' zone for any permanent snow beds. in the UK. Various species of maples are showing more advanced colouring up than even August 2010 and hope this is not a harbinger of another vicious December.
On 20 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Started with scattered showers this morning less heavy than yesterday mornings rain, today similar again in that the grey sky broke up in the afternoon to give some sunny spells along with cloud, high humidity again with a ssw breeze max 19 deg. looks like being muggy overnight again, humidity makes me feel badly rubbish roll on winter :) signs of the start of Autumn on some trees already..
On 20 Aug 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Netherlands have recorded the coldest August 17th on record and the second coldest 16th. Not the first cold records that have been set in the Netherlands this year.
On 20 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
2/2...Low pressure remains the dominant feature up to the NW and North throughout next week though so further rain at times can be expected. Then as we move into Week 2 the jury appears to be out on specific detail but it does look like that a trend towards something drier, brighter and perhaps warmer is likely to return to at least the South of the UK at the end of the month. While this is a welcome sight with a bank holiday weekend looming it comes with the caveat that it is a long way out in weather forecasting terms and there is a lot of weather to get through first before we get there and plenty of time for the models to have a rethink on these events. The one thing that has receded this morning is the prospect of high winds as the rapidly deepening Low shown in the early part of next week has largely been removed now in preference of a still potent Low but with less pressure gradient around it." === http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/
On 20 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Gibby's summary= The spell of indifferent Summer weather where all areas see rain at times is going to continue for some considerable while yet and indeed from this morning's output it looks like some areas could get jolly wet before things start to improve a bit towards the end of the month. What we have currently is a moist and mild SW flow across the UK with some warm sunshine but coastal and hill fog and drizzly showers in the West. This continues for a day or so as pressure gently falls down to the SW. As a result of this winds back SE and very warm or hot air is wafted North into the UK at the weekend. With high humidity and instability aloft as pressure falls the ingredients are there for a period of rain and potential thunderstorms later in the weekend. Then next week we witness the slow progress of this Low pressure complex starting down to the SW to migrate towards the North of the UK opening the door for cooler, fresher Atlantic air from the West to flood across the UK.
On 20 Aug 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Steve - yes, definitely a humid summer as although it is not hot you can get a sweat with little effort. The rain was just starting in London on the way home and set it by the time I got home. Heavy spells during the late evening and showing 10mm in the gauge this morning. Dry and overcast but bright this morning. Note that strong El Nino predictions are coming from the warmists. Point made on WUWT I think saying that in the areas adjacent to what NOAA considers the El Nino zone there is cooling already happening. If this spreads then bang goes there hoped (and prayed) for warm spike.
On 20 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
I had wondered Gerry, although it would be entirely speculative.
They day Hathaway has changed departments and will carry on updating it once settled but it hasn't been updated since May and I wonder how long it takes to be settled enough to have time to plot one mark on a graph from already recorded data.
Thanks for the link Andy.
Looking exciting with this El Nino and the declining solar activity which by some has been claimed as the cause of winter 2010.
Already weather is looking influenced by this hence MO declaring May, June and July all below average temps. Yesterday in South Wales I had 14 degrees which is 6 degrees below average and raining.
6 degrees below average for us in winter is -6 and with rain, would have been spectacular, of course I am being speculative again I personally have no serious weather knowledge
On 19 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, still drizzly and foggy but this cleared by midday and the temperature went to 19˚, held at bay by the blustery S’ly wind, in sheltered spots it was considerably warmer. Sunny afternoon, always great compensation for all the dreich we’ve been having. 14˚ at 10pm, slight rain from the passing front.
On 19 Aug 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Shaun I always find this site one of the best on sunspots and cycle 24
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
wet today about 15mm of rain after the 25 mm last Friday Only 27.5" of rain so far this year we had that much in first 3 months last year
On 19 Aug 2015, Rob Horler wrote:
Harris- Love the video of Aonach Mor and if you compare his video for september the previous year there is considerably more snow this year. I am off on north in three weeks time and looking forward to seeing the snow residue
On 19 Aug 2015, Mike (45d subs) wrote:
A useful forewarning for the coming Winter.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/13/noaa-el-nino-is-significant-and-strengthening-could-rival-strongest-on-record/
On 19 Aug 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
Hi Gerry. On the back of your comment about the summer, I must agree about it being a 'nothing special' season. My own temperature records indicate that May was cool, June was mostly average until the very end, then July was hot to start then all over the place, coming in 2.6c cooler than July 2014. But what hurts me the most is humidity. I don't know about anyone else here but since early July the winds have either be light or from a S'ly direction. It's coming again later this week and will all end in (thundery) tears Saturday night, before the storm forecast to arrive on Sunday. I cannot stand it, it's my bugbear about Summer.
On 19 Aug 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Shaun - are they 'hiding the decline' for solar cycle 24? Sunny spells this morning but cloud increasing from the west to be mostly overcast now in London. Sat24 shows a north-south band of rain heading west to east but not yet managing to penetrate to London. Not especially warm once again so chances of a record month continue to drift away. Barring any amazing changes it would appear to me that Summer 2015 has been below average with only that July few days bringing any real heat. Seems in Sweden it may go down in some places as a summerless year since it has never achieved the number of days of a certain temperature that defines Summer.
On 19 Aug 2015, shaun (Wales) wrote:
What is the situation with cycle 24 at the moment. I usually check Nasa website but it has not been updated since May
On 19 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
High humidity grey sky lots of rain early this morn. started getting heavier again now at 9.20 a.m 16 deg.
On 19 Aug 2015, Harris Keillar - Edinburgh 150msubscriber wrote:
Lots of snow still left in Scotland on the higher hills - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0jrq5wJwuU&feature=youtu.be
On 18 Aug 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Brill warm sunny day max 21 deg. cloud moved in on us this afternoon though making for a grey finish, 13 deg. now at 10 pm
On 18 Aug 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, rain much in the offing but only starting at 9.30, with heavy downpours from 11am onwards for pretty much the rest of the day, abating somewhat around 5pm. Max temp a scorching 13˚, though with relatively little wind from the NE it felt relatively mild, which makes sense as the rain-bearing front is a warm one. Still 13˚ at 9.30pm. ==CRAIG: I hope that JC will be alright, as it is the modus operandi of the PICs (parasites-in-charge) to dish out harm when they get really rattled. They can’t cope with someone who has real popular support (as opposed to manufactured and controlled, like in the so-called colour revolutions) and are wont to act like cornered rats.
On 18 Aug 2015, Gerry Surrey/Kent border 223ft 45d wrote:
Question- the GFS model shows something ahead that subscribers will recognise as Steve points out but I often read that this model is not reliable so is it credible? Does the model often see the right thing at one point but then change away from it later to end up wrong? The US Old Farmers Almanac is pointing to a cold winter for them and has been quite good of late I believe. NOAA are of course pinning their hopes on El Nino and going 70% warm although their success rate is little different from our own lame bunch. Overcast today with the look of rain but none seen yet.
On 18 Aug 2015, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
GFS model picking up on a secondary low forming just south of Greenland on Friday night, intensifying sharply then smashing into the UK from the SW on Sunday evening. Wind speeds gusting around 60mph in Channel Isles, Isle of Wight and south coast. Sounds a bit like something our good friend Piers suggested would happen several weeks ago. BULLSEYE AGAIN PIERS! YOU DA' MAN!
On 18 Aug 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
I would have thought it impossible to get any kind of job in climate science without swearing the 'oath of allegiance' to co2 which is why you will get no dissent from any official employed in the industry. You certainty wouldn't get a job at MetO given that is the 'Vatican of co2'. Its kind of like China or old russia where you had to be a Party member to get a job. So there is the magic circle of silence on it despite the evidence.
On 18 Aug 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Went up to Aviemore yesterday. Could not get up to the ski centre because of a car crash delaying the buses. Though many of the snow patches I reported in June and July have now gone there were still small remnants on Braeriach. On the way up and down, noticed patches on Benn Alder and at Drumochter. In respect of the latter this is the latest time in 40 years that I've seen an snow patch there in August.
On 17 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Richard - I had the WUWT bit on adjustments on my own blog === https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/problematic-adjustments-and-divergences-now-includes-june-data/ === Josh's picture say it all & Prof. Brown's comments spot on. It's getting to the point that (excuse French) they say it's raining but they're p*****g down our backs. Complete disconnect. // Locally not that wet Thurs/Fri just ~10mm. Odd spot yesterday felt on the face but drying since the two rather wet late Jul days. Got burnt whilst the big sunspot transversed on 9th but mostly been mixture of sun & overcast. 23 max. Cool last night. Good viewing on 12th for Perseids. Little one mighty impressed saw a real slow one that left smoke for a couple of seconds. Saw good half dozen+ in 30 mins. / Forecast looking good. Now the real heat is due to pass I could do with a bit of warmth (see Piers public comments for bank hol re: LBC). A good Sept, cloudy muck or a washout? Subscribe. Piers is 'in the zone'
On 17 Aug 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks 51N) wrote:
Been busy running the blog*, sorting the garden, school holidays and twitter! // * top posts= Watch "Solar Sunday (16/08/15)" [Gav's latest]; Blowing Cold and Wet in Scandinavia [from June but update soon]; Boris Johnson on the #Corbyn brothers [v. good views actually. Piers flagged it earlier], From WIRED: "Sakurajima in Japan Might Be Headed Towards a Large Eruption"; Record high temperatures as an unexpected heatwave strikes parts of Australia [Perth. Cold+Snow in Tasmania]; Antarctic Glaciers Were Retreating In The 19thC [i.e. pre all our fault] === weatheraction.wordpress.com === I usually update several times daily.
//Paddy - politics is ingrained in AGW anyway. All I'll say is the quite outrageous attacks on JC are similar to those on UKIP. Why so few - even in the climate community - stand above the establishment parapet because you get shot. The other way of thinking of it is anytime you try and drag yourself from the dirt you get dragged back down by mud dwellers.
|
