WA News No55 - 16 th August 2009
"It's the Sun!" - 'Many hurricanes' in modern times - "Latest BBC /Nature report is more BBC Global Warming hype and cover-up" says astrophysicist.
"There is no evidence that CO2 has any influence on hurricane activity. Tropical storm formation and development around the world is now regularly forecast in detail using solar activity" - Piers Corbyn WeatherAction.com
In response to the BBC/Nature report ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8197191.stm by Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News) 16th August, Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com long range weather & climate forecasters said "These reported researches which may show high levels of hurricane activity in the USA in the early Medieval warm period 1,000 years ago are reported in an ideologically loaded manner by the BBC to promote Global Warming hype. They add speculation that assumed projected ocean warming supposedly to be caused by man's CO2 could drive more dangerous storm formation in future.
"The problem is there is no evidence to back up their pyramid of nonsense. It is timely hype in an attempt to bash politicians to stay on the Global Warming & Carbon trading bandwagon to stop its wheels falling off at the Copenhagen summit in October.
The BBC report covers-up known science and leaves out three key facts:
1. There is no evidence of hurricane landfall in USA or intensity corresponding either with world temperatures or with CO2 levels in the last 100 years, as is shown by Robinson, Robinson & Soon ( See - also for further graphs: http://www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22434.pdf ):
2. Global Warming is over.
The world has been cooling since 2002 (graph below) and we predict it will continue to cool at least to 2030 and stay generally cooler than recently for at least 100years, see:
19th June 2009 WeatherAction News No 36 = http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=50&c=1 "World cooling has set in and it will stay colder for at least 100 years predicts scientist in forecast breakthrough. VIDEO: WeatherAction World Climate Forecast for next 100 years Filmed June 2009 = http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=60&c=3
"The facts mean that the scares about more storms to come due to CO2 are treble nonsense. Firstly there is no clear relationship between Co2 and world temperatures, or betwand world temperatures and US hurricanes and even if the claims were true it would make less storms since the world is now cooling.
"The reason for the lack of connection between sea temperatures and storms is interesting but the propagation of the baseless postulate that there is a reliable connection is evidence of the moral and scientific bankruptcy of what passes as climate science around the world and the ideologically loaded Environmental reportage by the BBC.
Although at first sight in tropical regions more sea warmth gives more evaporation and potentially more powering of Tropical storms through latent heat it is also the case that associated tropical warming phenomena such as El Nino lead to gradients in winds at higher levels which impede storm development.
In temperature latitudes storms are very obviously not driven by warm oceans otherwise Britain, Ireland & Europe would have more gales in the summer but they do not, they have most gales in January - the coldest month.
"Interestingly the largest storm to hit Britain, Ireland & Europe in the last 300 plus years was the unimaginably terrifying Great Tempest of 26th November (New style calendar) 1703 - which took place in a very cold period for the Atlantic and the world. Storm formation is more about temperature contrasts than sea surface temperatures. Generally in times of a colder world there are larger temperature contrasts between the equator and poles.
3. It's The Sun!
"The key to tropical storm formation is triggering processes which depend on predictable aspects of charged particle and magnetic activity on the sun and in the solar wind - the flow of particles from the sun to the Earth. WeatherAction's Solar Weather Technique (SWT) can predict these effects in detail
"Its not an easy problem but potentially tropical storms could form at any time in certain preferred regions but will only form - especially large storms - when solar factors predicted by our Solar Weather Technique come into force. Certain factors in 'Solar Weather Impact periods' (SWIPs) defined by the SWT enable us to make:
(i) long range forecasts of tropical storm formation &/or Rapid development in named regions in narrow time windows of a few days and;
(ii) short range EndGame improvements of the storm tracks predicted by standard computer models.
Ironically the BBC Report sports a picture of New Orleans battened down as Hurricane Gustav approaches in 2008. WeatherAction issued an 'EndGame forecast a few days before landfall that contrary to official forecasts that Gustav would 'power down' and swerve left and not be 'the storm of the century' claimed and would go west of New Orleans. Our forecast was corrcet and in fact there was no need to evacuate New Orleans.
Our 85% success rate in extreme event prediction including tropical storm formation is holding and our skill in long and short range storm track forecasting is advancing as is shown by our mid-August Tropical Storms report [see WeatherAction News No 54 and the 'Forecast Accuracy' reports via www.WeatherAction.com and links below].
"We will report on more about our Solar Weather Technique at a public meeting on 28th October.
WeatherAction extreme events forecasts - New Service - for 4 regions of the world are available via Purchase forecasts button at www.WeatherAction.com.
Information 6th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 51WeatherAction World long range Extremes Events Forecasts - New service launched
10th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 53
Met Office bashed over bonuses for trickery & failure! Piers Corbyn writes to Lord Peter Mandelson acting Prime Minister: "The MetOffice long range & Climate operation should be called to account & put-out to tender".
23rd July 2009 WeatherAction News No 47= http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=67&c=1 WeatherAction News 2009 No 47 What Does & Does Not Cause Climate Change and the threat to integrity in science - New PowerPoint Presentation & Letter from Piers Corbyn to Prof Sir Peter Knight, Imperial College Director of Research. Piers Corbyn Quotes
Piers Corbyn Computer modelling for weather forecasting, and indeed for climate forecasting, has reached its limits. Letters to MPs & ministers including graphs showing general decline in world temperatures this century & links to letters to Gordon Brown 2007 & 2008 re WeatherAction long range forecasts: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/letter_to_ministers.pdf Detailed WA forecasts available.
Letter to UN Sec General 14 July 2008 (with graphs).
http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Letter_UN_Sec_Gen_Ban_Ki-moon.pdf