On 27 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, frozen ground, under a brilliant blue sky which only lasted until 11.30, by which time high cumulostratus clouds moved in. Still a fairly stiff SW’ly breeze for most of the day, feeling pretty cold; temps nevertheless got to 6˚ out of the wind, so it was a lovely pre-spring day. Totally overcast and 4˚ by 10pm.
On 27 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Slight frost to start 2 deg. @ 8.30 a.m mostly sunny at first becoming overcast max 7 deg. Windy at times 6 deg. now 21.04 pm looks like becoming milder in the later eve./overnight hours, wind S approx 31 kph... Orange warning and Yellow in place for wind over the weekend.
On 27 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Bob - thanks & keep your comms coming. If anyone is interested in Bob's observations and those of Ren watch Tallblokes site. Top quality comms. // Flux on Spaceweather.com 111, flares in the B range, SSN 39, solar wind pressure falling (current 324) & that big fat coronal hole about to be earth facing. Watch what happens now & be aware of lag. I have a pet theory that we are in a phase where the sun has an increasing observable influence on temps as solar activity drops. Our sun is easing into sleep. Temps will, possibly after this year (which despite 'homogenised adjustments'). I still see a cool CET year but quite possibly a top 10 global year. As Bob says however watch those SSTs.
On 27 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Right on Craig... Thanx Russ - study some electrodynamics as well... F10.7 was 111 sfu for the second day in a row, and today the USAF lowered their 45-day F10.7 forecast average to 122 sfu/day, including 5 more days in a row from today @ 110 sfu... After uploading a handful of videos to "The Electric Weather Channel" on u-tube one year ago, I announce the winners today in terms of top views: #1 PIERS CORBYN @ 687 views; #2 "Mysteries of the Ionosphere, Thermosphere, and Mesosphere" @ 504 views; #3 "The Sunspot Mystery" @ 447 views; and #4 "Svensmark: The Cloud Mystery" @ 149 views. Congratulations Piers, you win the one and only TOP TEWC Video Award. A check 'might be' in the mail... I want to make an award certificate for your office... It looks like I'll be better dropping everything else and just posting WeatherAction videos.... Piers - any idea when the polar vortex will break down this year? I'm trying to win a bet over whether Lake Superior freezes 100%. It's >95% now.
On 27 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
A disclosure-in case I am to be one day skewered by the witch flak inquisition as now seen being dished out to non-believers & anyone obviously not 110% in agreement with 'the science' (which is obviously not the same as observational Science))...so here it is...I am not a government approved Climate Scientist (a.k.a. insider) = I clearly have no idea of anything nor understand anything-being a simpleton/peon/peasant not elevated to Messiah by the those denizens capable of granting beatitudes on the blessed believers. I also do not have access to computers capable of powering entire continents which clearly show it is all our fault & that the +4.0/4.5 °C per century scenario is reasonable because the computer did not say 'No'. Forgive me wrathful ones. P.S. Dear MetO/NASA is this the underlying super computer code? >10 PRINT "CARBON POLLUTION=THERMAGEDDON">20 GOTO 10 >RUN ... P.P.S. The BBC are yet to report this as they haven't heard back from Greenpeace ;D
On 27 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
*Slight reworking of 'Then They Came' (with apologies).... First they came for the Sceptics, and I celebrated - Because I was not a Sceptic and the planet hating b*$t@rds had it coming with their 'anti-science'. Then they came for the Lukewarmers, and I did not speak out- Because Lukewarmers got in the way of 'the true science' of saving us from thermageddon. Then they came for the Activists, and I did not speak out Because I am a government scientist and I only used the schmucks for convenience. Then they came for me-and there was no one left to speak for me.".... Stop focusing on the right boot as the left one is aimed right at your head. These nutters are bullies & nothing more. Pathetic, intolerant miscreants that must be stopped. These unchecked fanatics have already called for death to unbelievers (framed as 'thought experiments'). They speak murder so that imprisonment seems a 'compromise' afterwards. Eh? For unbelief? Why the fraud are we funding these people?
On 27 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Sometimes I have comments born of exasperation & incredulity at the complete stream of effluent coming from believers & official mouthpieces-be they Greenpeace, the Met Office or NASA as they are quite happy to stoke the fires of the lunatics. As such they are entirely responsible for everything that follows. As the Nazi's and Stalinists were appeased, we find some deeply unpleasant forces being appeased by those who bear responsibility as the poem 'Then They Came'* attests. However, where we rise above them is by being compassionate human beings. I have the utmost sympathy for Roger Pielke & Judy Curry's current plight in the witch hunt-even if we can argue they brought it upon themselves by siding with tyrants, whatever their original intentions. They are having their eyes finally wrenched open. Instead of shunning them we can offer a hand & continue to warn of the vile forces that are still leading their sheepish colleagues to the slaughter.
On 26 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
7 deg. this morn. At 8.30.. overcast showers and a little windy for a time, temp dropped to 5 by lunch time big drop compared to 12 yesterday, a few short sunny spells in between more cloud rain and then hail n sleety showers around 3 pm .. 0 deg. Now at 22.09 and feels colder. Crocuses have just shown themselves in the garden the last couple of days a welcome sight..
On 26 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, feeling really mild, light rain overnight soon clearing and turning into a sunny if windy day, beefy SW’ly all day, max temp 7˚. Getting progressively colder, down to 0˚ by 9pm.
On 26 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
snow showers rolling in now, but not yet settling here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire at 17 30 hrs
On 26 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheeps wrote:
The EMP from a solar flare would cause a flood of tiny electrical impulses in the brain which would trigger a conscious response from the subconscious brain, which would be unconsciously monitoring the Earth's magnetic field for changes. This will be the same response seen in cattle, cats, dogs, insects, birds etc, in accordance with other magnetic events such as earthquakes, electrical storms (is there any other type?), volcanic eruptions etc. A news article yesterday said that a person with a hat full of electrodes had controlled a remote drone using the power of thought only. Couldn't the same technology be used to monitor the human brain for activity specifically in response to solar flare events?? Seems perfectly plausible ... ah! I get it. No funding! All the money has gone into researching voo doo magic like Black Holes, Quasars, none existent universal expansion and last but by no means least CO2 driven AGW! Maybe another time...when it's too late to matter!
On 26 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheeps wrote:
Bob. Further to your request for details on the human eye's light perception levels, I have found an interesting PDF which should answer all your questions in this regard. >> http://www.ecse.rpi.edu/~schubert/Light-Emitting-Diodes-dot-org/Sample-Chapter.pdf <<.. If the movement of electric charge (not electrons - which are not electricity), can travel much faster than light speed, then some of the EMP from the solar flare seen by Penelope could, I believe, have caused her to look toward the sun. A little primeval instinct, a distant memory, still tucked away deep in our DNA which makes us aware of solar events. The glittering you mention Bob, may be an artifact relating to the eye's response to energetic particles, making the eye see but by a violent electrical impulse in the retina rather than the normal response to direct photon strikes. A very similar effect to the sparkles recorded by the SOHO solar satellites when energetic particles from solar flares hit the receptors.
On 26 Feb 2015, chris wrote:
Piers. Transport for London are tendering for weather Forecasting services perhaps this is your chance?
http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:68689-2015:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0
On 26 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
How could I forget to mention it's been so COLD here for weeks! Regularly below zero at night, barely above zero in daytime. Many nights it's been below -20F here; -34F twenty miles down the road, not including wind chills. Amazing to see the polar vortex so strong it pushes that frigid arctic air right down into Texas and out into the Gulf of Mexico. The lunar north node is on the 27th. Our local meto guy calls for maybe 30F by this weekend as the moon's air tides really struggle against the all-powerful polar vortex. With a weak Sun after the moon "goes the other way" southward, next week we could see Lake Superior 100% freeze over for the first time since 1996, which was during the minimum between solar cycles 22/23. How weak will that Sun be? Good question. USAF is calling for F10.7 to average 125 sfu/day into the first half of March, but they've been too high most of February. We'll see! SC24 maximum is clearly over. The warmists are getting edgy, goofy, & vindictive.
On 26 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers, thank you for your comments on brightness, etc. Penelope asked me to look at what she saw Feb 18 as she looked out the window, but I missed it. A small C3-class flare occurred after several days of very low x-ray flux on Feb 18, precisely at the time she was looking out the window at the sky. Quoting her exactly: "The Sun was so bright I had to squint really hard. The Sun was blue in the center with a red rim around it. All of a sudden all these lights came out of it. They were red, green, blue & yellow rays of light coming out, and they were moving & sparkling like glitter. It was SO pretty!" NOAA SWPC is predicting F10.7 to drop and stay below 120 for a month as early as April. If March trends like Feb ends, it'll be under 120 all month. First 10 days in July 2014 flux ave was 186/day, that's when it was HOT- before dropping to 86 on the 19th after SSN=0 on the 17th, and it got COLD, as I reported then. => Piers, I have no idea when my sub runs out. How can I find out? <=
On 26 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
T-storms in US SE now per forecast. Very cold Canada and Great Lakes area; warm, dry, fine in Florida per forecast for this period. Earlier periods were close, within 2-day timing, except R5, where warmth didn't make it far enough north for blizzards in GL area - we did get snow. Exciting times right now with polar vortex action and freezing Great Lakes under diminishing solar strength. Solar F10.7 flux for 12 days has averaged 117.7 sfu/day, just below my threshold. Seeing SSTs slowly getting colder especially along continental coasts in both hemispheres. One question I've been wanting answered is how long will it take under 120 sfu to cool oceans off. I expect a clear signal within a month or less if solar activity continues to be low & go lower. There have always been some solar spikes going into the minimum, so brief warm-ups from that are possible; an El Nino 'might' occur 2015 - I'm doubtful. ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/Predict.txt on track w/Feb now at 130.5 sfu/day.
On 25 Feb 2015, Whirlarang wrote:
Slowly, the US is waking up. Here is a link to a web page belonging to an engineering magazine in the US, ECN. The author does not necessarily believe that global cooling will occur, but he is obviously skeptical of the warmists:
Has global cooling begun? Arctic ice caps grow by 60% in a year
http://www.ecnmag.com/blogs/2013/09/has-global-cooling-begun-arctic-ice-caps-grow-60-year#at_pco=smlwn-1.0&at_si=54edf6a8f6928068&at_ab=per-2&at_pos=0&at_tot=1
May I suggest that you write to the author and help him to understand your position. I think he has an open mind, and reaches an audience of people who are trained to look for evidence, rather than unsubstantiated anecdotes.
On 25 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C overnight, bright blue sky until 10am, thereafter cloudy with light rain from late afternoon. SW’ly wind all day, much less strong than yesterday, max temp 8˚ & feeling mild at 5˚ at 9.30pm.
On 25 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
7 deg. Start at 9 a.m milder today reached 12 by lunch still 11 deg. Now at 17.06 cloudy all day with light drizzly rain on and off light breeze, briefly a little windy earlier for a short time, that's cool still get forecast for me birfday weekend and then spring time yay! hopefully!-)
On 25 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
@Craig M. Interesting point re. loww SSN and low SFU. When the sun wnt spotlessback in July it was roasting hot it was around the start of the Commonwealth games in Glasgow so interesting to see if indeed there is a delayed effect. Glencoe ski centre this morning reporting 72 hours of near constant snowfall with some lifts partially buried.
On 25 Feb 2015, Dave 45 day Suffolk wrote:
"Giant gerbils responsible for Black Death" Gerbils prospered as a consequence of warm conditions in Asia. Fluctuations in climate is responsible for repeated episodes of Black Death.
I can see the headlines now" Carbon Dioxide proven to cause Black Death, IPCC experts state"
On 25 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
so even with the dodgy CET winter comes out as 'average'. Meto said it would be warmer than average. And they have £100s of millions of supercomputers. So thats another meto long range forecast busted. The state money should be put out to tender and given to those who can demonstrate skill not those who always get it wrong and then sneer at others saying they deniers or what not.
On 24 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another very windy day, more WNW’ly and really cold even though it was 3˚C at 7.30 and no frost. Plenty comment on the radio re the snow further west, though the word blizzard wasn’t mentioned. We had quite a sunny day, the drying effect of the wind much appreciated, max temp 6˚, down to 2˚ under a clear sky.
On 24 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
After a cold very wet n windy night the wind and rain eased gradually this morn. Temp picked up through the day to 8 briefly 9 deg. With the odd shower.. A cloudy 7 deg. Now at 17.49 pm only a very light breeze now...
On 24 Feb 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Met Office going on strike ?
Maybe they'll outsource while its on
Get your bid in Piers!
On 24 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
8C outside Nottingham yesterday but by lunchtime in Exeter it was only 4C with hailstorms. Back up to 7C by the time I reached Nottingham again about 3:30PM...... Arctic ice level around Greenland Craig, could be due to the Jet Stream which pushes down huge loops of cold air over western Europe and northern parts of Africa but this also causes kinks behind these loops which push warm Gulfstream air up toward the Arctic Circle......I also noted yesterday lots of flooded farmland through Somerset. Well, nothing abnormal there then!
On 24 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Well quite a few media outlets have blizzards - "Snowfall and gale force winds cause blizzards as huge waves batter coastline" === http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11429421/Snowfall-and-gale-force-winds-cause-blizzards-as-huge-waves-batter-coastline.html === "Blizzards blast parts of Britain" === http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/blizzards-blast-parts-of-britain-31011695.html === Northern England and Scotland hit by blizzard conditions === http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/22/northern-england-and-scotland-hit-by-blizzard-conditions === http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/weather-snow-expected-across-uk-as-south-east-braces-for-more-floods-and-high-winds-10062225.html // Bit sodden and windy down here but nothing that bad. Made light work of pulling up the tap roots of some persistent weeds but boots were heavy with mud and a few pavement slabs sloshing underfoot.
On 24 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
cont... anyway the ice has been low in Arctic & is quite likely due to winds, warm AMO etc. Areas under look to be around the Atlantic (Greenland, Barents) which has been quite stormy of late. N Pacific has had anomalously high for past two years (Solar max influence or decadal lag from ENSO?) so large anomalies in Sea of Okhotsk & Bering. As ice is not solid on top of water and moves around it can pile up or conversely spread out.
Ice can be seen at http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ === The recent snow in Middle East === http://ow.ly/JxORE == I'm jealous! // @C View - been watching flux & ssn too.A spotless day could happen again. I often wonder if the UK has a lag with that i.e. US/Siberia (land) saw' instantaneous' effects in Jul 14, one month after we had cold post Bertha. // March and April look very interesting Piers. Stunning offer too. >> http://bit.ly/1bAYTtM
On 23 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Arctic Ice - a record low (some records from 2003 another 1979) for one particular day. Sigh. Have seen some crowing online that this is 'proof'. Over the other side of the globe, the Antarctic is 3rd highest ever with a very large anomaly over the Weddel Sea (west of the 'trunk' peninsula)-outside the Antarctic circle. Considering the paucity of our records (highlighted well by the NIMBUS 60's images) means little. It is likely the Arctic sea ice was at similar or lower levels during the MWP/RWP-trees from Middle Ages are only now emerging from under ice-it is natural. These lunatics have no perspective on natural variability, nor history. We have to stop playing the warmo silly games & being reactionary allowing them to set the agenda. These increasingly desperate & bizarre claims are just whack-a-mole stuff. The shrill screams of 'Big Oil' etc are to distract from industrial scale green corruption. *Sigh*
On 23 Feb 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// fascinated now by sun storms and the aurora - Piers can you let me know if you are able, or do you think the sun solar storms will be very active over the next few years ?? I wanted to know as fancy another trip to the Arctic
On 23 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, hard frost in a biting & wild WSW’ly wind (returning polar air), which carried on relentlessly all day, but no snow here, only a very few drops of light rain. Max temp 5˚, down to 2˚ by 9.30pm, less windy by then and feeling milder, unlikely to be frosty. == On the 30d forecast I’ve started reading the ‘Likely possible weather map scenario’ a bit more attentively and have found it to be pretty accurate over the last couple of days, worth paying more attention to that.
On 23 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Snow showers stopped around 11 a.m and the wind and rain took over again with esp more gusto after the school run, see some clearing of fallen branches and esb repairs going on down a side road earlier, wind picking up again now this eve. With some hefty gusts at times making it feel raw showing 3 deg at 19.40 but more like -1 the odd rattle of tiles now and feeling like a winters night! Time for hot choc n bed lol!
On 23 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
Having just looked at the traffic cameras on the A82 and A9
I would say blizzard conditions Piers
On 23 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
PIERS: both the BBC Scotland and UK lunchtime weather forecasts, mention gale-force winds and heavy snow showers, but nary a whisper about what that expresses in reality----
BLIZZARDS.
On 23 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
HI ALL Notice heavy snow plus strong winds (must be gales in places) in NW Britain definitely media level BLIZZARDS and very likely the obtuse standard met definition too - but lack of actual measures can be BBC EXCUSE to not use their bogey word BLIZZARDS. So watch this space reports on winds and snow amounts and photos welcome.==== ARCTIC ICE has risen and more significantly world levels of sea ice in smoothed out data are at or equal too RECORD LEVELS - see our #ClimateTruth event pdf and report on home page rhs. DATA sources Craig can list them here or on news review blog. === THE FAB OFFERS, ANOTHER REVIEW this MONDAY afternoon so get now + tell others!
On 23 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
KEITH: do you think the Ica Age Now links give fake data or the official agencies?
On 23 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
A fading sun? Sunspot numbers down to 45 and SFU at 116 under the crucial 120 level. Sunspot groups so small that solar disc looks blank. Could be a cold spring
On 23 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Another 10cm here overnight, though getting a bit wetter and sleetier now. Can't remember getting much warning from the MObeeb on this one. Another good few days for the skiers.
On 23 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
2 deg this morning feels colder, a little smattering of snow here n there from overnight just covering the outside table, snow showers on and off since 7.30 a.m.
On 23 Feb 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
WAIL!............. I hate snow - well especially now as I went shopping for spring clothes to wear in Birmingham this week at conference. Ah well, they'll just have to wait till spring emerges (as she will). Getting bored now with cold winter temps. Horse and pony fed up sloshing around in the mud.I need some mild weather to cheer me up. Hope the 30d will cheer me up!
On 22 Feb 2015, keith wrote:
I cannot find out much detail on Arctic Ice levels ,are we at record low levels?bar the corrupt nonsense from fake data websites.
On 22 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚ at 7.30, slight frost, overcast all day, a few small flakes of snow, then rain by midday, occasionally sleet but nothing sticking, 3˚ max temp, 2˚ by 9pm. MO had a yellow snow warning out for us, but since we are in a No Solar Factors period I didn’t think we would get much - and we didn’t so far. NSF also for the next two days, so we’ll see whether MO is overestimating. There will likely have been snow settling on high ground further inland, but not here.
On 22 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Frost to start yesterday rainy day followed, some snow in Cavan and Leitrim I believe.. No frost overnight more rain today and wind picked up around lunch time onwards 3 deg. Now at 20.40 pm can just see the stars now, yellow wind warning for us and Orange for other counties for Sunday through to Tuesday, felt a little milder last night but can feel a drop in temp this eve.
On 22 Feb 2015, Richard T yearly sub Redcar wrote:
I came home from Culcheth ,Cheshire today very testing driving on the M62 near saddleworth ,blizzards of sleet/snow ,ferocious wind right to left of vehicles made it testing for 20 miles temperature ranged from 3c to 1c near the highest point ,back home phew 4c with wind and rain which has now gone into the north sea.
On 22 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
Mountain Weather Information Service forecasting thunder snow for tomorrow in the W Highlands
On 22 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
thanks Piers. Nothing much south of Dunkeld according to the live cameras, so just on the snopwline here. Any touch of frost and it'll be an icerink tonight
On 22 Feb 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
So, two jags John is going to advise Red Ed about climate change is he? I am sure he is well qualified....
But wait a minute......once he starts spouting the govts guff, wont that have an impact on AGW? All that co2 laden hot air rising into the atmosphere......
On 22 Feb 2015, WENDY wrote:
high peak,Derbyshire,sub.
Blizzard conditions here.Snow is sticking.Local weather just gave rain today!
Noticed John Prescott is in charge of" climate change" and is to take a more prominent position leading to the Election.Heaven help us!
On 22 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
RON, Scotland, STEPHEN, GILL..... AND more in South; SNOW showers as in our forecast 20-22nd for most parts with snow to rain line in midlands but C LEVEL 65% confidence re position of line, so snow on high ground in south clearly not excluded and that's nice. I wonder if we will get any wails from snow haters, cats maybe, on lines 'you never told us'. == Interesting we are getting more of these even deeper sweeps than LR forecast in BI Europe and USA SO PROBABLY MIA / WJSA ie WildJetStreamAge is biting harder already. === ALL 4 for 1 and 6 for 1 OFFERS STILL ON BUT CAN BE AMMENDED ANYTIME NEXT REVIEW MONDAY 23rd lunch so if you are thinking GO4 IT NOW!
On 22 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Woke up to a layer of flakes on the ground, after a night of a 'golden galleon' Moon with frost. Started snowing heavily at 0930 hrs. here in Highland Perthshire at 140m alt.
On 22 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Well on looking at the subscribers page on the site I happen to spy a line that said if you do not find your forecast look furthur down the page, and hey presto there was the March forecast..... Got it now and reading what is in store for march. Thanks piers. I will get used to your site one day.. Lol
On 21 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Frosty morning, -1˚C at 7.30, clear and developing into a sunny day with a pretty stiff & biting W’ly breeze, somewhat more cloudy in the afternoon, 6˚ max and then light rain in the evening, 1˚ by 11.30pm.
On 21 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Re gill, my cat hasn't been outside for months for more than ten minutes ! She's Fourteen now bless her she mostly just sleeps now .
On 21 Feb 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Tis all white and snowy on The Downs this morning. 3/4" of wet snow on waking that probably arrived between 5.30am and 7am. Sun soon came out and melted most of so not that cold out. Who knows, this could be my last snow report from The Downs as I move off the mountains to the valley floor next month.
On 21 Feb 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Well - I wasn't expecting THAT......and neither was the MOBEEB apparently -as they omitted to mention this morning..... Snow/ Sleet at 9am. Three very confused, cold cats peering in from the outside
On 21 Feb 2015, danny wrote:
Its snowing in Frittenden Kent and settling on the ground,
and also snowing in Sutton in Surrey.
On 21 Feb 2015, Andy wrote:
Snow in parts of the Chilterns this morning
On 21 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
AND OF COURSE PLEASE NOTE The Amazing SIX FOR ONE and related Offers are still on. Please take up your opportunity and pass on information on the deals to anyone who may be interested. Thank-you
On 21 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR GREAT COMMS ALL! == The Br+Ir 45d IS LOADED! Apologies for delay, I had a number of things which took me off the case (not weather-related). It's a very interesting forecast, like they all tend to be in MIA / WJS-Age but being Spring it also makes the forecast important for agriculture === THE R5 17-19th +/-1d or 2d maybe has been very successful both for explicit WA forecasts and along with extra strong events in both hemispheres eg TS+ Cyclone Marcia.
On 21 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Russ, Michael - I've looked at this question historically as far as New Zealand is concerned. Our temperatures will be cooler but nowhere near as cool as yours in the Northern Hemisphere. However, looking at LIA patterns from the point of view of an agricultural country, the biggest dangers are likely to be hail in summer and droughts rather than a dip in temperatures. This would mean the potential loss of fruit, grain and vegetable crops.
On 21 Feb 2015, Richard Pinder wrote:
The Culture, Media and Sport Committee is publishing its report on the Future of the BBC on Thursday. A copy will be sent out to the Media for arrival on Thursday morning. Other interested parties should request copies from the Committee at cmscom@parliament.uk and the report will be available on the Committee’s website at the time of publication. This should fuel the recent attacks on the BBC by the Daily Telegraph and Private Eye as well as reveal complaints by Mensa members about the BBC’s censorship policy for climate science, scientists and scientific debate, as well as the fact that the BBC revealed that it hasn’t any Scientific Investigative Journalists. Probably because they would have been sacked years ago for doing Investigative Journalism into Atmospheric Physics. No doubt the BBC would have been advised by charlatans, to sack such people. Probably the senior charlatan, Bob Ward.
On 20 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, frost on the ground but not very hard. Wind mostly W’ly, occasionally strong, pretty sunny most of the time, thermometer said 6˚ max though felt warmer in sunshine, jacket came off. But by 4pm it was beginning to feel chilly and was 0˚ at 9.30pm. Lovely conjunction between Venus, Mars and the nascent moon on the western horizon tonight.
On 20 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheeps wrote:
Michael.... When you see ice and heavy snowfall in places like Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Israel etc in the middle of the NH winter, it does make you wonder where in the world will escape the suffering effects of a Little Ice Age. The main crop growing regions at present are in the north, but then that is where the largest landmass is. Most growing in a modern LIA would take place in Africa. My biggest worry would be the Amazon and the northern parts of S America. Deforestation by a starving public on a massive scale. Greening of the Middle East will increase crop yields across that region but I can't see them having very stable growing seasons. A very interesting subject, and unlike most modern media candyfloss, it will soon be a reality!
On 20 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
A number of record lows were broken on Thursday, including in Washington, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Midwest temperatures dropped as low as -40C..didn't the co2ers say we would have forgotten what snow was by now? looks like the science isn't settled? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31556446
On 20 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
MICHAEL & C View: try googling
thenextgrandminimum. wordpress.
On 20 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
US weather: Huge 'ice fountain' forms in US park http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31548523
On 20 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
Michael Good point and one that I have often thought about. 2 or 3 years ago whilst on holiday in the Canart Islands I was speaking to an ex pat now resident on Gran Canaria who told me they used to know exactly when their rainy season was but she found now it was all over the place with the rain much more random in it's distribution. Maybe there's a clue in that.
On 20 Feb 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// just left a very snowy Tromso Norway managed to get a visit to the north shore of The North Cape (most northerly Europe position) as they had strong winds the last two weeks, snow ice and freezing conditions, wore all my thick layered snow gear and goggles still cold though. Good powder snow falling for husky driving the mushers told me. Great northern lights I reckon you could see it at least three times a week up there possibly more
On 20 Feb 2015, Michael wrote:
If we are heading into a Little Ice Age what will happen in the Gulf States,UAE,Saudi Arabia etc?Also,how will the Southern Hemisphere be affected.
On 20 Feb 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
models not showing any sign of spring on the way
On 20 Feb 2015, Ben Farrington, Moray - sub wrote:
Where.s the March 39 day forecast?
On 20 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sorry -1 this morning that should have read & feels cold out too...
On 20 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mixed bag yesterday of cloud sunny spells and a few showers max temp 8deg. Lovely clear sky last night and a frost this morning 1 deg @ 8 a.m with some cloud again now.
On 19 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, but a very sunny day, strong SW’ly wind, much colder feeling than yesterday as the air circulating around the Low is returning polar air. Got to 8˚ nevertheless, the sun is stronger now. 2˚ by 9.30pm, feels like frost is coming. The effects of this particular R5 appear to have passed us by, unless there is a late surprise. == Looking at the stars as I went out to check the thermometer: it’s been a great winter so far for star gazing, so many clear nights.
On 19 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Heavy showers of wet, large-flaked snow, now falling here at 140m, less than half the altitude predicted by the MObeeb.
On 19 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
R5 Incoming northern lights were seen in the north east 2 nights ago, welcoming the coming weather right on cue ....
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/northern-lights-forecast-see-again-8662728
On 19 Feb 2015, James wrote:
Hi Piers, Well worth noting the two cyclones hitting Australia during current R5. Both have powered up much more than forecast by BOM.
On 18 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A little rain overnight, 6˚C at 7.30 with a strong SW’ly wind all day, rising to 10˚ for the first time this year, so MO was right for once, and that was under constant cloud cover. Speaking of which, there were some lovely lenticular formations first thing this morning. Dry all day, just a little drizzle in the evening, a few stars shining through the clouds, still 8˚ at 10.30pm
On 18 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some sunny spells but a lot more cloud today big dark ones moving in now this late aft. SSW wind picking up around 34 kph at the mo.. A few light spots of drizzle on n off earlier too.. Milder over night last night and max temp today 9/10 deg. wind also making it feel a bit fresher, very warm in the Polytunnel so opened doors and gave it a good airing, all set ready to go for another season, but in no hurry as the daffs are not out here yet so only sowing hardy stuff nxt in the tunnel and veg that I can bring on in the house. Hoping for some more good weather soon to work on the flower beds but glad I made the most of the last few days as def. a change in weather on the way...
On 18 Feb 2015, steven wright wrote:
hi piers im 45 day sub just wondering when the 45 day forecast for march is coming out thanks its spring like weather here in hitchin with just a nagging pegging the temperture down
On 18 Feb 2015, jonathan wrote:
Well after lovely sunshine here in Pembrokeshire yesterday and temps around 8° , today is overcast with gusts around 14-15 and temps have risen to 12.2°, im just waiting now with fingers crossed for the r5 to kick in, noticed on Gavs Vids (twitter) he is predicting wet snow for south east England on friday, i hope it comes West.
On 18 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
If it wasn't for the cold breeze, you'd think it was spring! Warm intense sun. Nature isn't fooled though...
On 18 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
C View: It's another great year this season too and excellent ice climbing conditions as well. We should keep an eye on the Mamore Range for more long lying snow this summer, as it his here that incipient glacial conditions will first appear.
On 18 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
How the BBC works. BBC made a disaster 'documentary' called Could We Survive A Mega Tsunami?' about a tsunami "starting at one kilometre high". 'The conjecture has been dismissed by geophysicists as "nonsense" and "fiction", and has been repeatedly debunked in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.Professor Dave Petley, Pro-Vice Chancellor at the University of East Anglia "This scare should be consigned to the garbage can once and for all," he added. The Tsunami Society issued statement written by five scholars in 2003
"We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded reports.
"No such event, a mega tsunami, has occurred in either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans in recorded history. NONE," the Society explained. Yet BBC have ignored complaints and their response was described as ' their modus operandi was to dissemble and misrepresent','. 'http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/02/17/bbc_trust_oks_hollywood_disaster_factuals/?page=1
On 17 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
Great video showing record snow in the Scottish mountains last winter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MOgG8sx7qw
On 17 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30 under a clear dawning sky, good ground frost, hearty WSW’ly wind which continued all day drying things out nicely. Sunny all day with temps up to 8˚, though in exposed parts of the farm in the wind it felt colder, 5˚C at 9pm under a cloudier sky. The weather map tonight looks a bit more like R5, MO is forecasting only 33 mph gusts for tomorrow with a max temp of 10˚.
On 17 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Looks like my comments have been added now(thanks) there was nothing bad in them just weather related and reminding people to subscribe plus pancake day lol enjoy your evening people.
On 17 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
i guess my comment was restricted for some reason ??can i ask why the 45 day forecast is now getting further from mid month to closer towards the 30 day forecast as there is only 11 days left in this month and it will be 10 days tomorrow thank you,Richard.
On 17 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max 7/8 deg. Yesterday reached 16 in the Polytunnel,Temp dropped very quickly throughout the aft. yesterday a quick tiny hail shower and a starry clear night, small frost overnight and icy patches cleared quickly this morn. 3 deg by 9 a.m 8 deg. at early lunch, some cloud but mostly sunny great day to do the dreaded job of cleaning the Polytunnel!
On 17 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
More evidence of the electrical nature of the solar system, but the PhD blinkers are hard at work baffling scientists with closed minds. >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31491805 << This shows electric charge moving through the rarified atmosphere (plasma) of mars, creating photons as the charge jumps from one state to another as it flows through gas molecules.
On 17 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
cont'd.... One third stop on a camera can easily be seen in the finished product, with bracketed shots showing clear differences in the overall brightness of the image, but I've noticed a lowering of skylight when my manual light meter barely moved, so the tollerance of the eye must be very fine indeed. But in the same way that NASA and NOAA manipulate climate data, our brain is constantly changing our perception of incoming light. Two males, same weight, same fitness and BFI, same clothes, can sense the temperature of a room quite differently. They will also perceive light intensity the same way. Maybe a person who can feel warmth easily and feel comfortable in a room at 20C can also perceive a change in brightness very easily; both heat and light being photons. So an overall sensitivity to both is possible. Or is it just down to the individual brain's perception? This is a bottomless pit of intrigue and we may never come up with solid scientifically sound answers.
On 17 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
Thinking about the single photon perception, I'm in no doubt that the brain was monitored and a tiny flash of activity was recorded. But the brain responding to that one photon does not mean that the person perceived it as light. I'm not sure how they know they are emitting a single photon. It would have to be masquerading as a particle I guess, as trying to send a bit of a wave would be impossible. Maybe they are obsessing about the whole wave/particle duality thing a little too much? It seems that they pick and choose whether they call the photon a particle or a wave, depending on the expected outcome of the experiment. On paper, light intensity should just about double, for the average adult to actually notice a change. The biggest hurdle is the way the brain interprets the information it's receiving. It introduces blur away from the eye's optical centre, and the retina has a built in delay, which is why 25fps video seems judder free..... cont'd
On 17 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Well not long to March only 12 days will it be a early spring ,will winter come back to bite ,will it be just a uneventful month well we have to wait for Piers to hit the send button lol ,or those that have not subscribed yet , for a year its as cheap as chips!! Nice morning today only up to 3c after a slight frost overnight ,yesterday we had rain/drizzle until around 11am then the sun came out and temperatures rose to around 8c not bad weather at all ,oh and happy tossing lol its pancake day ,think i will have chocolate sauce this year whilst i`m reading the March forecast :)
On 17 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
David- we are in an inter glacial warming period so temps can get 4c warmer and still be in normal ice age temp ranges. The bit bbc/meto can't be trusted on is the belief that co2 is the driver of temperatures. BBC do not allow any opposing view despite the evidence and we know the temp readings are 'warmed up' or cherry picked. They like to decontextualise the current temperatures from the ice age context and so point at only 'up' when its quite normal. Its like they take the temperatures from the morning decontextualised from a 24hr cycle and say they are going up then project prediction lines to trick the public saying at thus rate of increase we will all fry if 'nothing is done' . By evening they look stupid when its cooled. The reason they hate WA is not if forecasts are right or wrong but that the forecasts demonstrate co2 has nothing to do with it. So we have to remember where the battle is. ie what drives temperatures/climate.its not co2.
On 17 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
An absolute glorious morning here in dorset, a total contrast to yesterday's rain and gloom. Thought I would add to the Co2 with a good bonfire of all the garden cuttings accrued over the winter, great stuff, a nice fire always lifts the spirits,
When you look at the weather in America we have had it easy this winter but how long will this lull last for, if this MIA is just beginning in this 206year cycle I have been reading about we will have some very interesting times ahead of us all, by the way piers I have just taken you up on your excellent offer so keep up your research on your methods,and good luck. As for the Iceland farming item please remember to take a large pinch of salt with anything that the warmists at the BBC tell us is gospel I suggest you look up any temps you can find for Iceland yourself.
On 17 Feb 2015, DAVID ROWE wrote:
Hi Piers & all, on this mornings Farming Today an Icelandic farmer had a short interview. He said temperatures had been rising for the last 15 years, resulting in increased barley production, though to be fair he did say improved varieties also contributed. Wheat is also successfully grown ( just like Scotland), I know nothing about the climate in Iceland so I wondered if Piers or anybody on this site had any knowledge, because the BBC as we all know cannot be trusted on climate issues.
On 17 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL == WE ARE NOW ENTERING ANOTHER VERY EXCITING R5 PERIOD both sides of the Atlantic. Could I suggest YOU, if not yet a subscriber, take this golden opportunity to SUBSCRIBE at the amazing discounts to encourage new subscribers. EXISTING SUBSCRIBERS please hurry to get amazing 6 for one Extensions (Br+Ir, Eu) and half price USA - as a thank you for subs so far - and TELL OTHERS YOU KNOW WHO MIGHT SUBSCRIBE TO THIS AWAZING DEAL! Thank you!
On 17 Feb 2015, Lee Barrett wrote:
Hi Piers spot again,iv noticed the sun becoming very quiet too, very well done keep up the great work and quick question when does the March BI45day forcast come out? :)
On 16 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, rain until about 8.30 in a SW’ly wind, getting quite warm at almost 8˚ by midday, but then a gradual change as it brightened up from the West and the wind slowly turned towards the NW with the temperature sinking perceptibly, 0˚ by 9pm under a clear sky. Temp change on the nail again, Piers, perhaps in preparation for the R5 starting tomorrow?
On 16 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Brill accuracy as forecasted nice one Piers! spring like weather here, 3 deg. Start with sunshine and blue sky 7 deg. Now at midday a little breezy and some cloud now but warm enough when the sunny spells break through to make needed headway on the garden, watched the short range forecasts decreasing the rain for showers here and looks like a good few days before it breaks down again met ie even say spring like feel for wed. looks like colder nights back on the cards and unsettled for the wkend..back to the gardening ;)
On 15 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Milder the last couple of days, around 9 deg. today mostly overcast breezy at times and rain on and off, yesterday more breaks in the cloud, high humidity and still 7 deg and raining now at 22.14 pm
On 15 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, strong S’ly wind and fog all day, temp down to 4˚ by 9pm, a repeat performance of yesterday but without any rain.
On 15 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK...Sub wrote:
Piers tell us more about this 206 Year solar Cycle we seem to be in at this time, The things I have found on the Internet seem to be saying that we are in for a long period of extreme cold and we all should be aware of this upcoming event that will hit in the next few years,And evidently it will see us all at a terrible disadvantage food wise if the goverment do not take this seriously and fast. The co2 thing is barking up the wrong tree totally and this should be abandoned at once.
One such professor is John.L.Casey. And his vid is on YouTube and well worth a view.
On 15 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
When is the update going to be loaded regarding next week?
On 15 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL for Great Comms & Reports === Some Comms go on home page - Go there! === In case you havnt seen home page the AMAZING SIX FOR ONE OFFER many dream of is a Market test and will not last long so best to take up sooner or before and of course encourage others to become new subscribers on this! Thanks.
On 14 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, dull, overcast all day mostly with fog, light rain off & on all morning, all in a light SSE breeze, temperature staying the same throughout, including at 9pm. Regarding the 30d forecast, the temperature change came right on cue here on 13th, we have had no more frost and the ice around the farm has almost completely gone & the winds are mostly from a S & SE’ly quarter, spot on, Piers!
On 14 Feb 2015, Russ of the Shire wrote:
Now or sooner...that has to be The Goons...Milligan perchance? Bob...I would have to look uip the exact figures but I believe it's logarithmic as with audio. Example: To increase the volume level of music for instance by 3db you need to double the rated power in watts. But to double the percieved loudness you need to increase the sound pressure level by 10db or 10x the power in watts. It's a similar weirdness with light. One stop on a camera is usually broken down into 1/3rd stops for professional work, but this is buy no means the limit of the eye's perception. One whole (larger) f-stop on a camera is a doubling of the light gathering potential, which if my memory serves, is 4x the apertures area. Anyone see the inverse square law wagging it's tail at us? But as Piers points out, an individuals perception is almost unquantifiable, due to dozens of parameters. Legal and illegal drugs can alter ones perception of light intensity and colour dramatically as can certain foods.
On 14 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for see-saw cold/warm spells and a cold end to February and sharp start to March. No doubt it will change again soon.
On 14 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A big contrast in temps across NZ today following a hot day yesterday (we had 25 degrees here). Switching from a northerly to a south westerly dropped temps by about 5 degrees. Our high according to the Met Service was 21 but in fact it was about 19.
On 14 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
AND ALSO NOTICE EXCITING WEATHER contrasts going on and watch R5 coming soon === THE GREATEST VALUE OFFERS are still on but will end soon so anyone who is going to should take advantage now or sooner!
On 14 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
ALL BRILL COMMS === BOB Top stuff! Really!! == SUN BRIGHTNESS/FEEL. I understand the eye can detect a single photon. On what we perceive as changing brightness/feel on different days I think it is not mainly the eye but UV on the skin that FEELS different. UV has much more variation than eg Green or Yellow components. Absolute brightness is not easily observed i suggest - what you perceive depends on size of pupil, time youve looked, other objects etc. The Moon or sun always looks bigger on the horizon and maybe stars eg seem brighter and what about cloud?
On 14 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Russ, I'd be interested to know more about the optical sensitivity to brightness of the human eye. What is the minimum threshold that the eye can differentiate between different brightness levels? From there it would be necessary to determine the change in brightness from the Sun at the point of the observer, and then see if the two factors match up. Is sunlight changing in magnitude enough within the sensitivity of the eye for it to be noticed? We could learn more if everyone reported or logged noticable perceptions of sunlight brightness when they happen. I located solar radio flux data from five locations worldwide; data here ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/radio/45day_rad.txt. See the variation in daily fluxes for each frequency as they change wrt Penticton F10.7 flux as a reference every day. Learmonth archived spectral flux data/plots show very graphically major long duration flux spikes during large solar flares; and plots show fluxes at all freqs change wrt daily F10.7 flux.
On 13 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The rain woke me up at 1 a.m ( Friday ) little windy too, my goldfish memory during the nice dry spell has been reacquainted with the Irish weather as it has rained all day pretty much, did get a clearing in the sky later today though and was nice to see bits of the sky for a short while as has been so totally cloudy of late, max 7 deg. today.
On 13 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 with a cold SSE wind, overcast all day, light rain from 11am - 2pm, 4˚ max temp & still that at 9.30pm. After all these sunny days it is quite restful to have a bit of grey, also belongs to winter.
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ of the Shire wrote:
Thanks Wendy. The Cat is a hot spot for snow, that's for sure. We walked across Burbage Edge on Saturday and the melt wasn't noticeable, with the distant hills and Kinder Scout still white over. We walked through small gullies with around 2 feet of snow, the rest was just a few inches, with lots of refrozen ice on the paths. No melt in sight. Then the wife came home, after walking the dog on high ground near Owler Bar on Sunday, and she said everywhere was melting. By Thursday the far hills had very little white in sight. The streams are raging torrents with such a rapid melt. I wonder how Boston will cope with a rapid melt of the large snowfall they've had? .... The sfu and sensation of heat. Bob, it's an interesting topic which people have mentioned here before. Does the eye perceive the brightening of the sun during periods of higher activity? I studied optics for many years and it seems impossible, on paper that is, but in the real world, I believe that it is possible.....
On 13 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
On Feb 8, the F10.7cm solar flux was 153 sfu, as it was the previous day, after jumping ten points from the previous two days. The average flux this year to date is 142.5, versus last year's average of 146 sfu/day. Yesterday the flux was 128, expected to be 120 today by the USAF, whose 45-day ahead forecast is always wrong beyond a few days out. What I've found is that the Earth is supersensitive to solar flux, borne out by temperatures, and even the physical feel of the Sun's heat on my skin. When the solar flux gets to about 145 and higher, I start to notice the heat on my face here in February. When it's lower, I don't notice it, even on a clear day. Presently, I'm watching SST anomalies along with the flux, and I predict anomalies will overall go negative as solar flux drops below 120-125 sfu for a week or more. It happens fast, just as it warms fast, like it did along the US coasts, esp near Boston, as solar flux averaged 163 mid-Nov to end of Dec 2014 - fuel for blizzards.
On 13 Feb 2015, Steve (sub) wrote:
Interesting points Russ. I also think it is reasonable that great civilisations may have blossomed in the past and then been killed off by big ice ages - why not?
I am not so convinced we would fare any better this time though. We may have stunningly clever tech, vehicles, buildings equipment etc but the percentage of population that could rebuild and maintain these things in the face of a castrophe is tiny. The vast majority of us can use things but don't even know how they work.
Add to that the madness of denuding humankind of all our "nasty" energy sources just as the planet faces ever more cooling and few would survive.
On 13 Feb 2015, WENDY wrote:
HighPeak,Derbyshire ,sub.@Russ.re.snow melt.
.Sunday 8th,Drove over Cat and Fiddle road.No evidence then of snow melt, thick fog,deep snow ,people with skis and sledges.The nearer to the Cat and Fiddle Inn,the worse it became,couldn't even see the sheep!
However today is so different,raining all day and very wet and muddy,some snow still around in piles,after all we had 11 inches. temp. today 5 degrees,double from yesterday.
On 13 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
MObeeb forecast, seems to be cooling off!
On 13 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
russ- the bad weather seems to stop at ashbourne lol I did the high peak trail once and noticed it was like 2 deg colder than down here by the riverbank.
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
cont'd.... I bring up the subject of gravity because the anti-gravity technology that experts have been working on for the past 65 years uses extremely powerful magnetic fields to cause levitation. If the Sun goes inactive, then what does this do to Earth's magnetic field, considering we are joined at the hip by a massive magnetic rope stretching all the way from the Eath to the Sun. If the Sun does so much as hiccup, the Earth's weather and seismic activity go haywire. So if there's a big change in solar activity, we could be in for a bumpy ride. Are we in for a hiccup or a night-cap....we'll soon know brother! ......... Anyone seen the film Gravity? The critics didn't like it so we waited until it came down to £5 in the supermarket. Fed up spending £13.99 to find out a film is garbage! Gravity is absolutely amazing. Graphics are simply stunning, the storyline isn't as cheesy as you might imagine either. Sandra Bullock does an incredible job being intensely credible! Go for it......
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
Take a look at the coronal holes and the huge filament on spaceweather.com....a sign of things to come? I wonder what happens to the Sun to cause such dramatic changes to Earth's climate over such a protracted period? It seems that the Sun passes through zones of galactic space which change it's behaviour on a highly regular timescale. Goes to sleep for 100,000 years, then suddenly wakes up, yawns all the ice away, and off we go with another 11,000 year episode of hunter-gatherer activities, working toward farming, towns, industry etc, etc. I wonder if God invented ice ages to prevent us from getting over-zealous and over-running the galaxy with polution and missiles? Hehehe... I wonder if solar changes, as the ice age begins, will alter the Earth's gravity? Was it solar changes to our gravity that enabled the huge plants and animals to flourish 100 million years ago? Was it another ice age which wiped them out as Robert Felix proposes?? cont'd....
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
cont'd... I think we have almost certainly had technology before, but we are talking over 100,000 years ago before the last big ice age started. As the Ch4 programme show's, after 2,000 years, there will be no sign that we were ever here. After the glaceirs have scraped every vestige of human kind away into the seas to be covered with metres of silt & sand, what chance do we have of finding any trace of old technology? The environMENTALists are hell-bent on destroying our technology, yet we are so lucky to be living through these wonderous times of plenty. Why not just enjoy it you nature-smitten idiots? We don't have much time left before the big freezer door opens and we all go bye-byes! Global warming my aris! Watch the film The Day After Tomorrow, but with a cynical eye. Think of it as the gentle beginning of the new ice age. The next ice age will not take 1,000 years to begin as we are told, but less than 50! One Hale cycle I believe, just enough time for our Sun to shut down.....
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
Ian .. Re: new satellite. They'll say it's to monitor climate change on earth, and to watch for damaging solar flares, but I think it's specifically targeted at monitoring precise changes in the Sun's activity especially it's magnetic connection to Earth. They know that an ice age is imminent, whether little or apocalyptic, and they want to know in advance when it's liable to start. They have 6 billion people to control when the climatic poop hits the cooling fan. They want to see how changes on the Sun cause an ice age and what effects these have on our climate. This way, they may be able to do something to make the ice age survivable for more people. This time round, I believe that we are so advanced that we have a chance to ride this one out, so instead of beginning from the stone age, as we have done so many times before, we can have an industrial start instead of having to wait 11,000 years to work it all out again.... contd
On 13 Feb 2015, Andy wrote:
North America gets severe cold from the Canadian Arctic which seems to be a pretty frequent occurrence. When Europe gets a severe winter it is created via extreme cold from the East spreading West which seems to be a much less frequent occurrence. Western Europe obviously has the North Atlantic/ Jet Stream doing battle with anything that try's to push West. There are obviously many factors that effect the outcome but when studying occasions when there is a prolonged cold spell from the East there must be one or more re occurring themes that have caused the pattern to occur. It is a very complex situation with numerous possible outcomes and anyone who can find a reliable reason/ driving factor will have a better chance of predicting what sort of winter is likely.
On 13 Feb 2015, Russ NE Lumpyshire wrote:
richard (subs east mids)... Re: dry winter. I'm not sure where you are situated Richard but the ground across this whole region is absolutely sodden. Just mud everywhere. The fields have been flooded several times, with standing water almost constant from mid November. It does go to show just what dramatic differences there can be over just 100 miles, especially on an island surrounded by seas. This summary for January shows your area getting only around 65% of expected rainfall...>> http://bit.ly/1Cme0qr <<... Piers, did you receive the snow photo's ok? I will forward one I took yesterday showing rapid melt. Now what did someone say about the sun's magnetic filament causing sudden warming? My wife noticed the rapid melt on Sunday afternoon, so it must have started sometime Saturday. We could do with some help from Wendy in the Peak District because she will have seen the melt starting from her own window, as she's much higher than we are.
On 13 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS twisting around again and now going for a very active mobile rest of February with rapidly alternating colder and warmer spells, but not varying as much as their credibility!
On 13 Feb 2015, jonathan wrote:
Well looks like its back to our "normal" winter here in Pembrokeshire , heavy rain,
today and temp of 7.8 deg with blustery winds, i hope the second half of Piers Feb Forecast comes into play later on this week, although we heve enjoyed some cold sunny days over the past week.
On 13 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
yes there must have been some rain somewhere but not here lol. Seems the snow and whatnot drops on the dales rather than here. the local ponds seem pretty full although we don't really have a way of moving water around the uk from wet to dry areas. One of the benefits of privatisation no doubt. http://www.stwater.co.uk/about-us/environment/reservoir-levels/*/Module%5B1789%5D%5BviewPage%5D/1/
On 12 Feb 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
See data here, Richard - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries. England was a bit drier than average in December but about average on DJ combined. Scotland has been quite a lot wetter than normal in both months so the UK as a whole has been relatively wet so far. February so far is dry down here, don't know about Scotland but I expect that England might end up a little bit below average for DJF in total but that the UK will still end up wetter. Groundwater and reservoir levels are normal or higher pretty much everywhere. I think we'll need either exceptionally hot and dry summers or two dry winters (next and the one following) before there is a real risk of drought.
On 12 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, followed by, yep, another gloriously sunny day, temps up to 7˚ but in double figures I’m sure in the sun. Light N’ly breeze in the morning, turning into the SE in the afternoon, which is typical of high pressure weather for us here, though the HP is giving way now. By 9pm the clouds had moved in, it felt warmer even though it still was only 2˚. MO says rain for the next 3 days.
On 12 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Richard, all the rivers are full and the bournes are running, plenty of water in the system here in Herts/bucks.Wasnt andy, the farmer saying recently how much rain they've had in wales?
On 12 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A milder day of 7 deg. Cloudy again some light rain this afternoon ( felt almost humid for a short time ) which was quite nice as it has been a dryer winter here this year on the whole too and the rest from the garden was well needed, ssw breeze this eve. The cat although eats better than us is hunting like winter is not yet done he's had a bird 2 mice and our smallest chicken today so he's now in the dog house! Hopefully he will bring a sheep or two home for the freezer tomorrow!-)
On 12 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Article headline in today's Herald, Scotland
SNOWY WEATHER BOOSTS VISITORS TO SKI-ING CENTRES.
The article goes on to describe yet another bumper season for Scottish ski-img
On 12 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
How right you are Richard, it has been a dryer year, it just goes to show how varied the weather can be from year to year, this is what makes weather such a talking shop and so very interesting.
On 12 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
seems to have been a dry winter this year? Setting up for drought if summer dry?
On 12 Feb 2015, Ian wrote:
This new Satellite monitoring space weather should help give WeatherAction SLAT forecasting method a boost.
Scientists will use DSCOVR's Earth observations to study ozone, clouds, and vegetation. The satellite will also help track the amount of solar energy falling on the planet versus the amount of energy it gives back to space - an important measure for understanding climate change.
On 12 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
What is amazing is well back in history the sun and moon ,rainbows,aurora borealis etc were used in forecasting weather ,it is now unbelievable that these factors are totally ignored when computers think (met/beeb) they know whats coming ! other factors used by Piers solar ,sunspots ,jet streams etc enhance the weather forecast the way that those hundreds of years ago could not imagine ,,its very funny though when you hear the beeb/met and others then mention ,oh its the sudden jet stream,or oh the sun has been quieter this month when their forecasts are way off bbq summers /dry warm winter forecast 2010 which was cold and snowy ! so they suddenly use things that then contradict their methods ie they mention the sun/moon does not affect the weather doh!! they have been there in the sky almost for ever ,magnetic etc of course they affect our weather ,i guess if they input all of Piers,s methods the computer would blow up just after saying NO ,lol
On 11 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL! THIS IS A REALLY INTERESTING MONTH because we are in a deepening phase of Mini-Ice-Age/Wild-Jet-Stream-Age and things have happened mostly ON THE TIMINGS our Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique predicted but there have been displacments (mostly E-W). The actual weather is more extreme in variation than the look-backs available. Nevertheless we have got temperatures good even if snow/precip displaced E-W. == So Questions. == DAVE C - yes our hope for next period(s) after weekend (not relying on Met-Model maps) is obtusely put, however THERE IS AN EXTENDED EXPLANATION GOING ONTO THE SIBSCRIBERS AREA. Recent solar events we hope will modify models into what we want. ==== RICHARD BROWN Yes DaveC, RonG explain the background, my view, partly borne out by this year in USA & BI is that this New MIA minimum will be MORE SEVERE THAN DALTON although perhaps not as severe as Maunder (but it COULD be) === RICHARD T thanks for repro my home page Current weatherComm. Feedback on it welcome.
On 11 Feb 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// Guernsey // well no sign of snow but nice to have lovely cold days with temperatures around 4 degrees and tomorrow morning 1 degree - it's on going chill, and it feels like Winter.
On 11 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Richard Brown: you can get background on the Dalton and Maunder minimum, either by direct google or by going on to the Iceage Now site and checking their specific sections on them. The Dalton is the lesser of the two in severity of the winters experienced. Both are based on periods of low solar activity. The uncertainty is based on our lack of full understanding of solar activity cycles and there is a difference of opinion whether the low solar activity period we are going into will be more like the Dalton period or the more severe Maunder
On 11 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Cont`d
known to astrophysicists in the late '60s but unknown or ignored by the meteorological establishment which to this day remain determinedly ignorant of and hostile to Physics beyond the most basic Newtonian mechanics and classical quasi-equilibrium thermodynamics. [Evidenced by reactions at the Royal Met Soc meeting reported below on 7th Feb]. Our advance is (i) the ability to predict (upper) SSWs, (ii) the realisation that consequent Lower stratosphere SSWs occur and preceed the (very) wild extra meandering of the Jet Stream and (iii) predict the timing of and approximate location of these wild meanders. thank you ,Richard.
On 11 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Cont`d
and Ireland bur without much snow. The bitter cold, ice and biting winds were just as dangerous and troublesome for #NHSwinter as we warned but without the snow which unfortunately for some appears to be the only measure of winter weather they have ever known.
The mild burst from 13/14th for Britain & Ireland looks to be very well on cue and the Br+Ir temperature forecast graph continues to be very well followed. What comes next, during next week, also looks like it will be confirming our Weather Action SLAT11 foreacast even if becoming established in a different manner.
"Our WeatherAction (SLAT11, stratosphere) longer range forecast of the Sudden (upper) stratospheric warming (termed 'SSW') in early-Mid Jan and subsequent warmingS in the lower stratosphere and consequent very wild meanders in the Jet Stream has been totally confirmed.
It is worth noting that the fact of wild jet stream behaviour following (upper) SSWs, is not a new WeatherAction idea and was known to
On 11 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
This in case people have not read it ,is what Piers states on main page ,,,",Br+Ir & Eu: Milder flow Br+Ir (due 13th/14th...) approaching on WeatherAction cue; forecast temperature graph well followed.
Piers Corbyn says:- "The Displaced (from North) 'Polar Vortex' situation - ie Jet stream shifted very South over Britain and Ireland and (west) Europe - happened on cue and widespread snow came on cue ~4th (see pics report 4th+5th...). The great southward lurch/shift/meander of The Jet Stream (or 'polar vortex displacment' in journalize) turned out MORE EXTREME than our BI 45d and BI+Eu 30d forecasts, although the 6 month ahead less detailed statement is well followed; meaning that extreme snow events came further East into Europe and further South - ie amazing snow in North Spain.
The further South Jet-Stream shift also meant that the West-East boundary of the High pressure over Atlantic/Ireland/west Britain moved smartly East - confirming the bitter and biting cold forecast .
On 11 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
As I understand it they are just different names for different periods of low sunspot activity.The Sun shows a quasi-periodic ~200-year cycle of activity that causes sporadic intervals of minimal sunspot activity and prolonged sunspot absence lasting for several decades. Such long-term sunspot absence may influence global climate and appears to be associated with periods of global cooling and little ice ages. Long-lasting sunspot absences since the 13th century are specifically linked to periods of increased glaciation and colder temperatures world wide and the development of "Little Ice Ages". These include the Wolf (AD 1282–1342), Spoerer (AD 1416–1534), Maunder (AD 1645–1715), and Dalton (AD 1795–1825) periods of sunspot minima.
On 11 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another sunny day, starting with -3˚C at 7.30, ground frozen solid, gradually warming up to 6˚ in a light SE’ly breeze. If it’s sunny again tomorrow, as MO says, then that will be 5 sunny days in a row, quite exceptional for February, though it’s happened before, 1997 for instance, if memory serves. We still have hard-packed ice in north facing places, so still have to go about with care, even though we’ve had warm daytime temperatures. 0˚ by 8.30 pm under a clear and starry sky.
On 11 Feb 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Could someone please explain the difference between a Dalton minimum and a Maunder minimum and why there is indecision as to which type we will experience. Thank you
On 11 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max. 6 deg. today overcast all day mostly dry except for a few light drizzle showers, working hard in the garden whilst it's like this so nice not to be churning up the grass...
On 11 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers what will become "established in a different manner" next week? Which period are you talking about in the forecast. That is a bit ambiguous!
On 11 Feb 2015, Steven Glossop wrote:
Hi Piers. I think your general forcast for six months ahead for
Febuary was very accurate. I know snow lovers missed out a lot due to it been pushed a little further east. In sheffileld Its been a snowy winter. I know its only a small part of the country. But we had 20cm boxing day. Around the same in January and nearly a foot at the end of January. And its not that high up where I am. Be interesting to know what the rest of the year brings. Hopefully some nice summer weather!!
On 11 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
I too would like to echo Crig M's point re the giant solar filament. I remember a smaller filament in Dec 2011 putting a stop to expected severe cold B&IRE. This one is much much bigger so one assumes will have a more profound effect.
On 11 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Well, let's see how good the cold/warm transition forecast by GFS for the 17th/18th, the warm spell for the 20-20th and of the profound coldblast due to go down the North Sea and Fennoscandia on the 23rd holds true.
On 11 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR COMMS ALL ==== COMMS ON Site Format etc are, further to my statement on this, NOT for posting here but are referred to Web Site volunteers for examinatiion. This way people can maybe say more and trolls on this left with nowhere to go. ==== FEB COMMENTS Some were suspended until the CURRENT WEATHER COMMENTARY - SEE HOME PAGE - was in place which puts the (mainly) lack of continuing snow in the European context. Other(s) have not being posted because of inaccurate claims that (all) Feb was wrong in area(s) whereas in fact the temperature forecast for Britain & Ireland - the most important parameter for some - has been and is being well followed and miles better than all other forecasters from any length of time - 1 week, one month or 6 months ahead you care to chose. One was also ignored because we didnt know what it mean. ALL Please SEE THE CURRENT WEATHER COMM and again note WeatherAction foreacsts are long range NOT SUBSTITUTES FOR SHORT RANGE TV/Model Forecasts.
On 11 Feb 2015, Steve D, Waltham Abbey wrote:
Stephen Parker - was your response for myself or Steve, Dorset please? Many thanks.
On 10 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Although I am miffed that Piers’ forecast is going astray, I’m not complaining as we’ve had another day of wall to wall sunshine, starting off with -2˚C at 7.30 but gradually warming to 6˚ on the thermometer (facing North) which is 2 degs cooler than yesterday, but working in the sunshine it definitely felt more like 12˚. Down to -1˚ by 10pm under a clear starry sky. == Ian, even short term f’casts can’t get it right: MO has been saying cloudy all week from today but have now changed to sunny both tomorrow & Thursday.
On 10 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Re Craig m If we are indeed going into a period of low solar activity, which has not been observed in the Modern era, it is going to make forecasting difficult in the Transition period and could lead to some interesting weather in the coming years, and we may experience what eastside tells us about ! I think i first started to hear about the coming minimum on WUWT, then found weatheraction and started to subscribe. I was at the meeting at Imperial college ( i think it was there) when Roger Harriben of the B.B.C was there, and Ken Gannon was still around, and the N.I MP spoke. If we do enter Dalton or heaven forbid a Maunder type minimum we will get all the snow we need, and coming off the back of a period when politicians have made energy as expensive as they can
On 10 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Ian= your view of WA seems very simplistic and nebulous. where is your evidence? where are your forecast/actual comparisons?
On 10 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Steve D, i hear what your'e saying, but people were only expecting snow because it had been forecast with 80% certainty, and the period in mid december from a few days ahead.Other solar forecasters have also been confounded this winter,this weather malarkey is not easy! i have a feeling that the next 3 or 4 winters could be interesting, so even you in sunny Dorset may even get a bit of snow on your toes!
Although we haven't had any real snow down here in Hertfordshire, i do understand that in Northern Britain and Northern Ireland its been severe.
On 10 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
2 deg and some fog at 9 a.m high humidity overcast and stayed dull all day, max temp 5 .. I admit the homepage is a little cluttered but I also like the raw honest put it out there as it happens approach as some sites have that false too tidy boxes feel about them, glad also there is no shake the Santa style approach for snow % I also like how all comments get a fair view and everyone is allowed the freedom of their opinion that's cool and non biased, maybe a little re-vamp would be good though and I'd def. enlarge the sentence that says Weather Action is not a substitute for short range forecasts lol!
On 10 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Hmm... forecast going astray and yet again a massive dark solar filament is on the earth facing portion of the sun ===http://ow.ly/IOChZ ===. This filament is "a tendril of plasma more than 1,000,000 km long held suspended above the surface of the sun by **magnetic forces**" [SpaceWeather 9 Feb 15]. It stretches from one side of sun's southern hemisphere to the other. If you've been around here for some time then you will notice these dark solar filaments have put out previous cold forecasts in years gone by. Now why should it affect the forecast? Well Piers theory is based upon the earth-solar (lunar modulated) MAGNETIC CONNECTION which affects circulation patterns/jetstream. This will affect the connection. This image gives a very good representation of magnetic field lines around the filament === http://ow.ly/IOATi === I've been watching it since 3rd Feb (it has trebled in size since then) but how/if this has an impact on f'casts+going forward? Piers?
On 10 Feb 2015, jonathan wrote:
Hello, everyone I am a subscriber but mainly just for the winter months, I live in far west Wales and so far this month unusually Piers forecast has been way off target for whatever reason, does this mean that the whole of the February is of no use to me? I assumed that once forecast had deviated to such an extent that it has then an update would have been released to reflect the remainder of the month. Please could any replies be in laymans terms,.
Thank you I look forward to your replies
On 10 Feb 2015, Steve D wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31091820 - An interactive play based on Global Warming. You couldn't write this stuff if you tried lol!
On 10 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Piers you and whoever helps with your site do a great job and I for one appreciate what you do, the great views it kicks up,some are amusing some not so, anyway what I think is that if we had all the snow that they had in Europe which we missed by a small margin then you would be inundated, but I think you're stuck with the disappointed as we had snow but not lots as some were expecting. The reality is we are a small island and it is very difficult at the best of times to get the weather correct as you can see with the MO 3 days ahead, but to archive your record as to broad brush stroke weather so far ahead is amazing.
On 09 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
In regards to cooling in the UK I believe it has begun. The 2008/2009 winter was reported at the time as the coldest for for 10 years, then 2009/2010 was the coldest for 30 years. 2010/2011 had the record cold and snowfall for December. 2011/2012 continued the colder than average winters and then we had March 2013 (coldest for 100 Years) which was one of the longest cold spells I can remember and spring that Year was the coldest for more than 50 Years.
This winter has been average but even in Yorkshire we have had thunder snow. I wouldn't call it a MIA yet but the trend is there.
The summers in the last 10 years have been getting cooler
and wetter too which is also a sign of what is occurring and what Piers is predicting.
We don't seem to have had a really severe cold spell in January in the UK since the early 80's and that is what will hit people really hard.
On 09 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, wall to wall blue sky again today and just over 8˚, though in direct sunlight it felt rather warmer than that, positively too hot while working thinning trees. That said, we still have many stubborn icy patches around the farm that don’t want to go away, this slows getting from A to B considerably. Down to 0˚ again by 10pm.
On 09 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another cloudy day all day but dry which is the main thing and pleasent enough to work away getting some decent soil from my old compost heap into the tunnel, hoping for and needing a better growing season this year. Max 5/6 deg. I would love to extend my sub but with my partner still needing further surgery and on the waiting list I just can't at the mo, gutting as such a fab deal, just hoping I can afford to re-sub later when mine expires as totally love these forecasts great value for money and great site in general...
On 09 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
SUBSCRIBE TODAY TONIGHT ASAP! Thanks for sub Richard. The sub hiatus LOL for over half a day was maybe a statistical thing. I hope your promo wakes people up. The other thing of course is boring cloudy high pressure weather so less visitors on site or twitter or facebook. === COMMS ABOUT SITE These are welcome and just had one but we are treating them not public and instead sent on to a group dealing with changes being considered. Thanks for comms on the matter.
On 09 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Another year paid at a bargain price all went through easy enough ,come on peeps join in at reduced rates 2 years ago i was paying 25.00 a month ,so i just saved 228.00 pounds !!!,
btw lovely sunny day today shame i was indoors working temperatures reached 12c early spring ???
On 09 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
SUBSCRIBE TODAY Richard, we are aware of all those points, today however i am puzzled about today because under similar situations, and the home page info today is clearer than often, there would be sales but there are still none. We will look into it by other slow ways, however i wondered if anyone had had a prob they could report. Further comms on this will be taken to be non public. For interest some buy because of campaigning etc, and there are plenty of greens who would advise us to shut up but would never buy anything anyway.
On 09 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
on subs -it might be because the page appears very confusing? Needs de-clutter and needs to work on smart phones better? There might be some interested in forecasts who are not interested in the political stuff? So maybe separate out the two? People are interested in what works so maybe try doing a video review of the previous month showing what was forecast and what happened. Usually in sales you need 3 selling points or reasons why someone would buy them from practical reasons to aspirational/support science reasons ['be part of the movement for real science etc]. If raising money for research is the problem try the crowd funding sites. I seen some crazy ideas get money. Ordinary people don't really need long range so its institutions, event organisers, farmers, mod, etc. Also the forecasts for usa and europe have a better hit rate? so usa would be my focus where you can demonstrate a good forecast/actual hit rate. Official level uk is a closed minded place where they all hate WA ?
On 09 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
RMS SEA ICE ETC CONTINUED. Rhys btw I never make data claims that cannot be justified. It is important when making claims or reading the claims of others that one sees EXACTLY what is being said. === BLACK PEARL thanks btw for the snow pics. No we did not do a vid although considered it, half of our two person volunteer crew for vids came to the meeting too but lugging equipment not easy and not sure how that would work out there. It would likely have been another reason some who we wanted to quiz more would dodge questions. There could have been vids done on modern phones etc but i have not heard of any. That is a way for future.
On 09 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
SEA ICE RHYS The claim of record high levels is not an instant measure but smoothed data, over two years, which is the only way to do it because of wind etc caused fluctuations - see the link on home page http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews15No03.pdf which shows stevegoddards 2 year smoothed amounts which are indeed a record on that system. The claim stands but it must be explained what it is. I am sure the warmists know it and interestingly at RMS ON 7Feb he did not actually dispute what i said which i clearly explained was about smoothed out data but instead tried to substitute arctic for the world!! LOL! Two year smoothing is also good because of stratospheric qbo (quasibiennial oscillation) and should be applied to temps too. For their data a smoothed out lie also wipes out their claim on phoney data. === BACK TO NOW CITIZENS NO-ONE APPEARS TO BE SUBSCRIBING TO ANYTHING. IS THERE SOMETHING WRONG WITH THE SYSTEM from outside?? Anyone! PLEASE SUB NOW and we will see. Thank you.
On 09 Feb 2015, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Piers was there a video of the 7th Feb presentation by the 'magisterium' ?
On 09 Feb 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
east side: Sadly the BBC still has a reputation far above what it actually delivers and so people are inclined to believe what they say. Rhys: there must have been some big change in the Arctic ice since there was a multiple choice quiz for polar ice extents on WUWT. As of the end of December 2014, the Arctic was just 5% below the average but the Antarctic was a whopping 33% above the average. Suggests to me the sum total is a lot more ice so another warmist lie about melting icecaps.
On 09 Feb 2015, east side wrote:
"WOW Piers! The message is now getting broadcast in the Telegraph!"
NO, 'fraid not.
Chris Booker is well known for his views, but blatently biased web sites like the BBC & Master's wunderground blog are blaring on regardless.
They are currently kings of the broadcasting horsepower game, no matter how bad their staff behave in personal life.
"People" as Hitler cannily observed have very short memories, so if you repeat the same big lies time after time, you will always get people to believe them.
Observe the lies about MH17, the "ghost army" invading Ukraine & the infection of our media with all kinds of propaganda.
These are trends that are v difficult to counter. People are fundamentally easily coerced & influenceable, because they don't realise how much freedom cost to obtain.
It's all so long in the past people had to die for freedom (eg, the 30s famine in Ukraine), they forget how many gave their lives for it, and how many were slaughtered on Normandie beaches.
On 09 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
@Brandon Just one further comment, last winter was regarded as mild by many because night minima were mostly above 0c however daytime temps were usuually single digit with most of the precipitation falling as snow on the high ground as witnessed by the record snowfall in the Scottish mountains with the skiing infrastructure frequently buried. Again further evidence of cooloing climate as a prediction of the AGW lobby was that Scottish skiing would cease to be viable as a business, instead they are all making major investment. I remember the really mild winters of the 90's with daytime temps often double digit.
On 09 Feb 2015, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Piers
In your justifiable rant about WEF, you make the inaccurate claim that 'sea ice levels are at record highs'.
That is simply not so. Currently, sea ice levels are just above 0.5m sqkm BELOW the long-term average.
It is indubitably the case that in the past few months, Antarctic sea ice levels have been at record highs, however there is no date since the Millennium when the same can be said about the Arctic.
In terms of economic arguments, all that is required is to show that no significant trends in melting are taking place. That is undoubtedly the case.
Overplaying your hand reduces your credibility and plays into the hands of charlatans.
Data on sea ice areas can be found at WUWT's sea ice page.
On 09 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
FANTASTIC DEALS TODAY If you are reading this its time to go to HomePage and Subscribe inc EXTEND CURRENT SUBS - at 75% OFF - JUST DO IT, UNLIKELY TO REPEAT for long time! Thank You === DATA FRAUD MAJOR SCANDAL - Andy Richard, Read my RoyalMet Soc meeting report on Home Page notice the 2 BBC-MO speakers both avoided a quizzing from me. CountryFile? Allow a comm against subsidies but NEVER ALLOW even a peep against the BIG LIE. They are the heirs of Goebbels, a very-very well oiled Lie Machine, their chinks of 'balance' are a cover for their main purpose: Lies and brainwashing for Govts and in the end the SuperRich who are the main benefactors of the CO2 scam. LOOK over the years at BBC, not just cover up but 1984 style Lie production - Orgreave in miners strike, Football stadiums, the Paedo emoire not just Saville but ruling circles, Wmd and Iraq, The CO2 scam gets a major lie on air every hour, just count them, just saw some total cretin-physics lies about straw-bale houses etc.
On 09 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
The problem is the data needs to be collected by an impartial body not dominated by those who have financial and ideological motivations to warm them up. Basically the dataset collection if not the scientific bodies became broken when they stopped collecting data and got high on 'changing the capitalist system'
On 09 Feb 2015, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Surprised that the Beeb allowed a sceptic to say that all wind power should be subsidy free and be allowed to stand alone on Countryfile last night
On 09 Feb 2015, Richard wrote:
WOW Piers!
The message is now getting broadcast in the Telegraph!
We're getting there, bit by bit the people are waking up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html
Perhaps you should give him a call and try and keep the momentum up in the media? - Good luck
I'm in Papua New Guinea and it's 30 degrees and approximately 90% humidity.
On 09 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
After a hot sticky 26 deg day (northerly) a south westerly swept through with rain at 6 pm and the temperature dropped about 4 deg. Welcome to the latest R3!
On 08 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, light NW’ly breeze & getting a little stronger during the day, cloudless sky and brilliant sunshine all day, max temp 8˚, still 6˚ at 6pm and 4˚ at 10pm. Woodpecker drumming, cock pheasants parading in front of their hens, chaffinches & titmas singing their hearts out, spring preview - but I’m not getting the sun cream out for quite a while :-)
On 08 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
-1 to start at 9 a.m with heavy fog that persisted throughout today thinning only a little for a short time this aft. max temp 5/6 deg. 2 now at 18.46 pm feels colder..The Polytunnel reached a temp of 11 deg. so worked away in there getting organised for spring, nice to hear more birds about again, quite eerie when I poked my head out at 5pm to thicker fog again :) snowdrops looking ready to open soon, in the mood for spring now...
On 08 Feb 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
cont... and since 2010 we had the 16ft snow drifts that I just mentioned. But the problem with you refering to 2010 is that it was exceptional, which is evident in the number of cold weather records broken. Why would you compare all winters to an exceptional year that does not represent the base line.
2010 was amongst a 5 year span of bad winters, as people point out they werent as bas as 2010 but they were still below average for whole winter with decent snow.
Last year has been the odd year out and not the common theme. This year there hasn't been wide spread snow I know but that isn't unusual at all, but there has been plenty of snow around the place, in my area I didn't have much but as stated, it was winter conditions with weeks of -3 and wind chills of -4 to -5. On my run today the usual bog was frozen absolutely solid and still lying snow was also frozen solid. Winter has been winter
On 08 Feb 2015, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
@Braondon being as polite as possible you are talking absolute rubbish.
as I have stated many many times to people, Met office data shows for the whole of England that anything below zero is below the average low temps. We have had weeks sub zero, here I have counted the majority of 5 weeks below average.
You are making the common error of using snow as a definition of winter when it is not, especially in the UK and its position making it very difficult to get the right conditions.
You are saying there has been no good snow for years just because in your area there has been no snow, well you must have forgotten than 2 years ago England had 16ft snow drifts, the army had to call in specially adapted vehicles from Europe to reach these towns who were cut off by snow for weeks.
Can you not remember all the news stories of all the millions of pounds worth of dead cattle found completely burried in snow?
No snow? there has been plenty of snow in England this year
On 08 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Brandon, Piers is right this solar cycle is dying down we will still have an occasional mild winter but temperatures especially from next year on go downward for a few years at least ,the met have moved weather stations from ones used many years ago example ,lets say they use to use Redcar stray weather station and it showed Dec as +4c now they use Loftus which shows +4.8c this then looks like warming when in fact its not,and this is what they have done in many places in the UK thus then they claim Cet has risen when it fact its b****ks, do you see ,stick with weather action(Piers) for three years then come back and tell me im wrong :)
On 08 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Interesting video on gavvids [Solar Sunday Update (9/2/15) } on comparing this solar cycle with a previous one and seeing how they correlate even in the cet temps. If accurate this would demonstrate that co2 is irrelevant re temps and that the sun has a better correlation and prediction position. If we use the comparison solar cycle he uses as a guide then the next 3 winters will be v cold ones followed by 2 average one then one even more cold one. Worth a view till the end https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4OUSuFvOt4 if the increase in co2 was relevant then the temps would not have followed so closely to each other.
On 08 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL COMMS === WHERE ARE WINTERS GOING? BRANDON. Yes we said that as we move further into Mini-Ice-Age=Wild-Jet-Stream-Age we are totally confident both that there will still be some mild winters and mild spells within winters and the overall trend is more cold and very cold winters and spells within winters. Cold does not always mean a lot of snow which is a VERY sensitive matter in Britain& Ireland requiring both moisture AND cold in islands surrounded by water above freezing. In Jan although it snowed in North Brit+Ire we missed blizzard disruption of South England by only about half a degree C. In Feb so far we had snow (underestimated by MetO) and cold on cue but the high shifted East too fast and kept the moisture in Europe causing massive snow disruption there. FOR EUROPE INC Br+IR THIS (and it was from 6months ahead) IS A CLEAR SUCCESS, however disappointing to snow-hopers! === There is also the prob of DATA FRAUID by official bodies claiming it is warmer than fact.
On 08 Feb 2015, brandon wrote:
What another overestimated Winter by every single forecaster, for five years England have not seen decent snowfall like I stated before 2010 was the last real winter we had but piers I thought you said year after year winters will be more of the norm from then on? I remember you stating not every year would be cold but it's been pretty snow less for five years now and I will say for the UK it looks like we're going into a warm phase in these winters not cold
On 08 Feb 2015, steve (sub) wrote:
Here in Scotland next to the Forth Bridge we have had a very pleasant winter after the rain and gales of January. Since then a good 2 or 3 weeks of mostly sunny dry days perhaps a few degrees below zero at night up to zero or a few above in afternoons. Nice crisp cold sunny calm days - perfect and long may we continue to escape the more extreme stuff further away.
On 08 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR INFORMATIVE COMMS. RICHARD[subs east mids] yes thanks there has been an amount of "synthetic ourage" about us sending stuff to COBRA. We have definitely seen some [apart from one mentioned which might have been such or might have been more neutral]. The fact is bitter cold (which we got) and biting winds (which we got) and Ice (which we got) do more killing than snow (which we got too but it did not continue for long). We were wholly right to warn COBRA and they are wholly wrong now and in previous times to ignore us and rely ONLY on LATE MetO warnings which are often underforecasts of events and tell them nothing useful about the longer future whereas WeatherAction can. Although it would have been helpful doubtless for COBRA to have met re the large increase in cold related discomfort and deaths and strain on NHS it appears politically the Govt want to avoid any sign of the words 'crisis'+'nhs' apearing together. === Re BI or BI+Eu together for asessment, useful comms.
On 08 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Thank you for taking my comments in the right way they were meant Piers,and people ,things change ,slats change ,maybe the 8 periods into 6 or 5 or 4 would help the overall pattern as the UK weather especially in winter /spring can be very changeable as we all know ,we are close to Europe but we are always (nearly) always in the battleground area ,Atlantic milder trying to move in against colder Europe,Piers did get the cold right(snow for some places) and it was cold let`s not forget that we have had 12 frosts already here this year certainly more than last Jan,Febs mild stormy weather,winter is not over and no doubt it will keep surprising us that's why we love the weather ,Keep the forum as a friendly place people try not to bicker life will be better and Piers keep those idiots obsessed with global warming,climate change baffled by your intelligence and correctness we need more people to help the people !,thank you ,Richard .T.
On 08 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS now oscillating a bit ( as it does). There maybe short incursions of polar maritime air into parts of Scotland at times, but no dramatically cold and lasting spells of wintriness, unless a plunge of northerlies forecast just to the east of us is wrongly positioned.
On 07 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 in a light N’ly breeze, started sunny but clouded over soon & remained so for the rest of the day, no precipitation. 6˚ max, still 5˚ at 9.30pm. For us, this R5 appears to be a pussycat so far, though the R3 following might still bring some surprises. Interesting to read Ben Farrington’s comment, just goes to show how varied the weather can be in Scotland, in our area we appear to get off lightly more often than further west or north when there are major weather events.
On 07 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I agree re having less weather periods in the forecast. Maybe 6 would still cover the different R periods and rapid changes? The UK must be one of the most difficult countries in the world to forecast the weather. For such a relatively small island there are unbelievable contrasts and micro climates. I'm focusing on the 5th period of Feb now and keeping that in mind. I can't see the current pattern changing for at least 5 days now.
On 07 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Overcast again today max temp 7deg. Light NNE breeze, 5 deg. Now at 20.20 pm and had a starry sky for a time & a nip in the air this eve. Was still light earlier at 5.45 pm nice to see the evenings getting a little longer...
On 07 Feb 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
XS winter deaths. You clearly have inside information on the cause, Richard. Many have us might have assumed that most were due to a particularly ineffective flu vaccine. Note also that most of the recorded spike was in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January when the weather was mild turning to cold and Piers was forecasting mild. The jibe on 'synthetic outrage' was also unnecessary and misplaced. A polite question was asked and an observation made, no more. No need for handbags.
On 07 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Temperatures down the M74 - M6 - M60 approaching dusk yesterday were interesting. After hovering around 4 to 6C through most of the day, as far north as Edinburgh, as the sun disappeared below the horizon the temperature plummeted to -4C in just over an hour. Very dry clear air though, so no precipitation. The hills along the M74 are no longer pure white, but are reverting to a more brindled appearance.
On 07 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
It's not over until it's over and March can be a winter month up here, but all we can say is that standard models, like GFS and the Norwegian MO indicate no severe cold and heavy snow until the last week of Feb at the outside and indeed some comparatively warm spells----but of course they are nonetheless still---standard models!
On 07 Feb 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Morning all. Hull is cool, dull and cloudy. Still the odd bit of ice around from the snow earlier in the week. Its certainly been a more winter-like month. I thought I read somewhere about the seasons shifting? A cold, wintry March would be great! Are we also due to enter solar cycle 25 very soon? Is this the cycle that should see a more pronounced cooling of the earth? Keep up this excellent work, Piers!!
On 07 Feb 2015, Ben Farrington, Moray - sub wrote:
Finally the cold snowy and icy conditions are coming to an end for my neck of the woods for a while. A quick look back, I was working at Ben Lomond in December of last year I witnessed thunder snow for a good day and a half (as PC forecasted) , January first week back at work at Glencoe started mild, I remember 11 degrees! BUT from the second week of January it has been cold and snowy since. I worked at Grey Mares Tale (Dumfries and Galloway/Scottish borders) this week and at times it was almost alpine there. It Feels like its been a proper winter for the last month or so, driving back yesterday from Greymares Tale to Forres in Moray I noticed people skiing down to the car park at Glencoe. There are large areas of snow covered land in the highlands, you don't need to go to spain or Germany to see snow L:OL So WA forecasts have been useful to a degree but the timings in particular have been all over the place, but Piers you did say its proving difficult to get the accuracy MIA JS etc..
On 07 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Richard, If you actually read sue's comment properly, there is no 'synthetic outrage' you have attached that yourself to it, she merely asks where is the weather that was forecast?.
The N.H.S has become a political football and one that cant be solved on a weather blog.
Anyway, which European country do we blame this time?
On 07 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Richard Traut- makes sense. Given wi,ld jet swings trying to forecast for something the size of uk is going to have more problems than for something as big as usa or europe. Huge amounts of snow in europe. Having said that its still better than meto. I have been watching Meto saturday [today] all week and until friday it was bitter cold but this morning its gone 'feeling warmer than recently' . Yet they get away with it.
On 06 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚ at 7.30, farily cloudy at first, then mostly sunny but with dark clouds to the north of us, light N’ly breeze, 6˚ max, clear & frosty night with -1˚ at 9.30pm. For us this is an exceptionally quiet R5 - so far - although the Atlantic High is now beginning to ‘lie down’, possibly opening the gates for cold air being brought in from Iceland & further north. Regarding sunshine, we have certainly had a very sunny January, 100 - 150% above normal, as Piers predicted; I counted around 24 days of sunshine varying between 4 - 6 hours per day, rough estimate from my notes. -4˚ was the coldest we’ve had so far this winter, being close to the sea, unlike Braemar & Highland Perthshire where they’ve had -11˚ or lower.
On 06 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Cont`d, I was here in December 2010 when you forecast the coldest or near to in 100 years and bravo to that,and the nearly coldest May in 100 years which for 22 days was spot on ,that is spotting the trend from months out ,,its in the detail periods that needs lessening in my opinion from 8 to 6 or 4 periods of a month ,as USA seems to be easier i think maybe as we are always on the battleground area maybe we should be included with Europe(dont tell Ukip ) as if the snow moves 200 miles east into Germany it can be explained more easily ,January was pretty good milder than average was correct ,dont anyone take criticism to heart we all try to help each other on here i hope and i believe Piers has a great tool here ,imagine if the Bbc/met were as open and honest with facts and figures lol we would have nothing to talk about fiddling buggers lol.
On 06 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
The month of February is not over ,winter can get into spring if you understand i agree its hard to sell forecast s when they tilt over to other countries, i.e feet of snow mentioned in December and February forecast past and gone ,maybe the headlines need to be changed just a thought ,to maybe something like ,in December it will turn colder(temps -2c below normal) from the 7th -15th +1-1 days with possible sleet and snow mainly over the mountains but possible to lower levels over the north and east,just a thought, ,The cold did arrive maybe early or late but did verify ,its the details in the forecasts that are wrong esp for my area, yes snow did fall here and there but mainly higher ground it lasted longer and heavier than lower grounds (though snow did fall)as a winter forecaster spotter lol the overall package is a good idea maybe the forecast periods need to be changed from 8 to 4 to lessen the feet of snow( which when happens is great but when doesn't it looks silly sorry.
On 06 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
stephen parker - one marvels at the synthetic outrage of how dare WA send stuff to cobra and it not be 100% correct when Meto forecasts to Cobra are worse and their record would be clear to everyone if they hadn't stopped publishing them out of shame. There has been a massive spike in deaths due to the cold this year in metos 'warmer than average winter'. Why shouldn't WA send stuff to cobra?
On 06 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Thanks for that Piers.
On 06 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
No frost this morning cloudy 3 deg. at 8.30 a.m remained cloudy all day reached 7 briefly 6 deg. now at 16.26 feels parky though. Is that right that there is a Near total solar eclipse likely to be seen in Ireland on the morning of the 20th March? hope we get to see it here, I remember seeing The Total eclipse in 1999 I think it was, when I lived near Cornwall was amazing to see...
On 06 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
DAVE Your comm of last night is now published. Note we dont always see such comms till morning. I thought it was more of a direct comm and not necx for publication. I would just say there are quite a few warmist catechism propagators around who make comms which are stupid, have no basis and are purely to undermine those who say things they are unable to discuss.
On 06 Feb 2015, Alistair from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Certainly from a snow lovers point of view it has been very disappointing to date in this neck of the woods.
At the moment the models do seem to suggest a dryer less cold spell for the foreseeable, with some people even suggesting that winter is over for this year which is ridiculous imo.
As a fifty something year old, I remember some pretty cold and snowy February's of years gone by and things can change pretty quickly as we have already seen this winter.
I wonder what those people (as mentioned above) will be saying this time next week if they do
On 06 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I posted a comment last night that hasn't been published, never mind perhaps it was perceived as criticism.It does feel a bit springlike today in the sun. Will winter come back later in the Month? What piers had predicted seems to be occurring to see degree but not in the forecasted order! So if you apply that theory and say 6 out of the 8 periods will occur things could get interesting late in the Month!!
On 06 Feb 2015, JohnE wrote:
Probably the hardest frost of the winter so far but now at 11.00 the sun has melted it all away and we have clear blue skies. The ground is still frozen quite hard but with increasing temps I reckon that we will heading for spring like conditions quite soon and so from a south Lancs perspective this has been a long long way from the winter of even 2010 let alone some of those in the distant past.
On 06 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A marked change for NZ over the last two days with a cool south westerly that came in with the R5. It was quite cold for the time of the year here last night and this morning, also yesterday morning. Some places in the South Island (further south than us) were 10 deg cooler than normal for this time of the year. We reached 21 deg in Motueka today, normal average would be between 23 and 25. A big change for the country after the recent hot, humid weather.
On 05 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, light N’ly breeze, overcast for most of the morning, thawing slowly & rising to 6˚, sunny afternoon and really feeling warm when the sun was shining on us, got quite hot thinning trees in one of our shelter belts, 3˚ by 10 pm. Waiting for colder conditions again to remove hag without leaving a muddy mess in the field. Heard chaffinches again.
On 05 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
I see that N Spain had lots of snow and people were stranded for hours, it was about 45klm from Santander. Hey piers the spanish have nicked our snow lol. Not to bad here today sunshine and showers of Rain. 6c
On 05 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Richard, whats last winter got to do with it?. Your putting up a strawman and not dealing with the comment.
On 05 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Forgot to mention the nice sunny part of the day between the cloudy start and finish, made for some nice smiley faces out n about...not sure if this drizzle atm feels sleety in nature or if I've just had too much fresh air!-)
On 05 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Met had Orange low temperature warning up for Leinster for last night other counties yellow, but it wasn't as cold here in this part of Leinster as previous nights, 1 deg. this morning @ 8.30 a.m and roads were better, the pot holes were still sufficiently iced from previous but a better morning for driving, the ice and patches of frost around the garden started to disappear for the first time in days by about 3pm, cloudy and some light drizzle now this evening 5/6 deg. @ 19.48 pm
On 05 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
At least the weather is calmer than this time last year. We had exceptional winds in Feb last year that caused significant damage and of course others had flooding, that was a wild jet stream if ever there was one.
I have been trying to promote this website for you Piers but the feedback is quite negative. I will give one quote as an example " is it ran by the Daily Express because it reads like there sensationalist headlines" Of course they have quoted you in some articles. Weather sells news papers and eye catching headlines attracts business to websites. We have to be warned of possible extremes I understand that but maybe the rhetoric does put new customers off sometimes?
I like the way every corner of the UK is represented on here it gives a good balance for feedback and observations. Seems like the last R3 had more effect than the current R5 for the UK?
On 05 Feb 2015, Alister wrote:
Little harsh on MetO, they did revise their forecasts closer to the major events occurring but their record on initial long term projections has been dire over the last decade. Is it not now standard practice to assume the opposite of their first long term offering?
On 05 Feb 2015, danny wrote:
Snow here again in East Sussex, it came over really black
from what was brilliant sunshine then it snowed hard
for about 5 mins turned to sleet and its stopped.
there is some snow on the roofs and a bit on the grass and paths, hope we get some more, cheers danny and his lurcher dogs....
On 05 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Sue- how did meto do last winter when others forecast the storms in october while meto who said it would be drier than average reported only when water was coming thro people's cat flaps?
On 05 Feb 2015, Paul wrote:
Just had a hail shower in Lowestoft at 1530pm. Turning colder here. The wind must be coming more of the continent rather than long sea track northerly.
On 05 Feb 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Light snow on The Downs this morning and settling but with traffic moving in large numbers the roads are staying clear. Tuesday morning the traffic was very light so the snow was settling on the road. More reports of heavy snow and records being set on iceagenow. Good piece on the raving stupidity of bio-fuels.
On 05 Feb 2015, STEPHEN PARKER (SUB) wrote:
EASTSIDE People in the UK have no conception of real winter, except in Scotland and parts of north england and the mountains of Wales. The last really severe freeze was '62/63. If we get snow its unusual for it to lay on the ground long, how we would cope with months of it i dont know!
On 05 Feb 2015, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
The Low that was supposed to bring snow has not materialised but the huge High in the Atlantic is there right on cue - very impressive forecast. For WA critics - just think how good WA could be if they had the resources of the Met Office.
On 05 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS , not quite in synchrony with Norwegian MO. A cold northerly will just miss us this weekend, perhaps just brushing the Aberdeenshire coast. Thereafter no real cold blasts and indeed becoming very spring like especially in the south. Of course if that northerly comes 50 miles west, it will be a different story.
On 05 Feb 2015, Alister wrote:
John - Knowing the existence of the jetstream means we can look back at earlier weather events with a different perspective. Some view the stormy spells in the early 1700's as being a precursor to the previous MIA and pointing to the similarity to recent Atlantic storms, with the large variation in the jetstream direction caused by the increased temperature differentials between warm and cool regions, indicative of some cooling starting to manifest itself.
On 05 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian MO backtracking a bit again and now going for a sharper spell around the 14th
On 05 Feb 2015, John Blakely wrote:
Piers. I'm interested in your theory that the last MIA was characterised by a "wild jet stream" However, the existence of the jet stream was not proven until the 1940's and hence there are no records of the jet stream behaviour in the last MIA as it's existence was unknown. How can you therefore be sure wild jet stream behaviour will be associated with the next MIA. Thanks John
On 05 Feb 2015, east side wrote:
Interesting to see you riled.
The fact is, it's by no means unusual to have light to moderate snow fall in the northern hemisphere in January anywhere north of a line 48-53N. (Manchester-Strasbourg)
Moscow is the same latitude as Glasgow so gets the same amount of sunlight.
In Dicken's time heavy snow was quite normal.
The frost fairs witness to a generally much cooler climate than today.
It's coming back, but it's not here yet.
Why do people panic about the normal onset of winter in the northern hemisphere especially in the UK?
Is it because we MUCH MORE vulnerable as a "high tech" urban population, not less?
They will have to get used to it pretty soon if the prognostic of a weak to almost non existent solar maximum in SC25 happens....that's only 5-6yrs away before the effects start t to show.
"Solar Cycle 25 is expected to be the smallest in over 300 years, suggesting the end of the Modern Warm Period"
On 05 Feb 2015, Sue Dublin sub wrote:
Piers wrote to COBRA as he felt the Government should be intervening in a major cold/snow catastrophe by now - where is it? -3 4 5 is not unusual at this time of year. We are not digging ourselves out of a snow event like 2010 are we? It is 2c in a Dublin now, expected to reach 6-9c..we have Feburary weather in Feburary no drama.
On 05 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
Nino VAN EECKHOUT Thanks for Report (NB you do not appear to have subscribed since last winter). The MIA is not uniform cold but wild swings in Jet stream with extreme cold, extreme warmth (in normally shorter periods) in short spaces of time and within seasons, between season and years. You need our forecast to guide you on what to expect. standard models are very volatile under these conditions and by the time any weather period is actaully reached they often have 'forecast' 5 substantially different scenarios.
On 05 Feb 2015, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Hmmmm, don't know what to think anymore. I'm a strong believer of the MIA, but sofar here in Belgium we haven't seen much (except for the Ardennes).
We now have a tiny bit of snowfall in Gent and really this is the first one of all winter.
I also wonder where this is going because national weatherforcast says next week winter is already over with temps that even during the night will hardly go bellow zero...
On 05 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
We,ve got heavy snow forecast here today at 8-9 am . Oh no! chaos will ensue!
On 05 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL GREAT REPORTS. The ones of heavy snow are nice. We have not finished the R5 (and we should watch Eu and USA too) but it is already clear there is more snow than standard forecasts. In terms of area over B+I. What we said 6 months ago "...Widespeard snow and ice over much of B+I.." is totally confirmed. I see some (or one) comm that seems to think if it didnt settle or didbt settle for long it's not snow, that is of course ridiculous. So far the more detailed (45d, 30d) forecasts suggest greater snow amounts but a small shift in High position makes a lot of difference even though it is cold enough. However we are not over yet. I am glad to see less of inane comments (which one sees more of elsewhere) like "Well that's not that unusual" as if therefore it's a wrong forecast (even if timing spot-on). This is of course ridiculous. If a moderate**event is forecast and happens that is total confirmation.{**Or Gnats piss on the piffling A66 event as EastSide would say).
On 04 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, snowed some more overninght, we have between 2-3 inches. Temps gradually rising to 3˚, bright morning but then mostly overcast, light N’ly breeze, still by 10 pm with 1˚. MO predicting up to 6˚ tomorrow, no further snow forecast. == Forgot to mention yesterday that I heard my first chaffinch singing in the morning, this is a bit early compared to other years. The blue & great tits have been singing already on sunny days. They may all be in for a surprise yet…
On 04 Feb 2015, east side wrote:
"The Office for National Statistics has predicted 3,000 deaths due to the cold this week alone." http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-snow-uk-weather-set-to-get-colder-as-beast-from-the-east-blows-in-from-siberia-10019633.html "
What are they on about?
The deep cold is OVER in Russia, it's warmer everywhere, and the temperatures are only just below freezing now.
Even the birds are starting to sing again in the trees!
That's it for this winter, the only way from here now is up with a few more days at -25C and lots more snow.
It was a very early start from September, still 1-2m mounds of snow in the streets but up in St Petersburg and Moscow nothing even remotely close to a cold winter!
On 04 Feb 2015, Alistair from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Its been a real mix here in Hull over the last couple of days.
A covering of snow early hours of Tuesday though nothing to get to exited about, probably less than 1cm.
Today, 4th its been a real mix of snow then sleet then back to snow and then sleet again.
I don't have access to Piers February forecast but have read the comments on his home page regarding widespread snow and ice after a few days into February.
If the afore mentioned events are to happen then I don't know where they are coming from as the forecast on tonight's BBC evening news is for a few showers here and there for tomorrow, before becoming a little milder over the weekend .
On 04 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
cont'd 2... Its the UK's proximity to the warm gulf currents which create this problem. The sky clears, the ground ices up, the warm moist sea air crosses the land mass and boing, it precipitates out as light rain or drizzle and instantly freezes, mainly in hollows where the coldest air lurks. As the morning rush hour begins, the general temperature rises as day breaks, and any frost dissipates leaving the thicker black ice to catch out the unwary or inexperienced motorist. We in Derbeeeshire are accustomed to black ice because we are littered with steep, pointy hills and narrow, deep valleys. Scotland has nasty patches of black ice form when the hills are snow covered but the general temp if relatively mild. This warm, moist air gets hit by freezing air rushing down off the hills in the early hours. This deposits freezing drizzle and mist in isolated patches...very deadly. Freezing fog also deposits black ice but you kinda see that one coming....if you catch my drift...
On 04 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
according to the GFS charts, the UK winter is just about over, with no real prospect of any really cold weather until the last week of February.
On 04 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
My wife took an hour to get home from Dronfield on the 29th, which is normally just an 11 minute journey. She was sent home early in the nick of time .... I'd just like to point out to 'eastside' (who's posts I like to read as he tells it how it is, and doesn't hold back on politically correct grounds), that if large wet flakes of snow fall onto freezing tarmac, very rapidly, then winter tyres won't help. Neither will they help on black ice. Black ice is a killer in the UK, because the topography, proximity to the sea and critical latitude create tiny pockets of freezing temperatures, when the vast majority of the land mass is several degrees above freezing. So what seems like a relatively mild morning commute can have dangerous random patches of thick black ice absolutely anywhere. We also have a lazy highways agency who take many years to prevent rainwater crossing major roads that get caked in ice every time the temperature hits 'frosty'. cont'd
On 04 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Derby of the Shires is still white over with snow. The A47 Snake Pass was re-opened Tuesday I believe, but from the train window I could see that Edale still had lots of snow, with 3 foot drifts remaining against stone walls and I would estimate 4 - 5 inches across the fields, which could be fairly accurately read from the depth on sheds, horse shelters, wall tops etc. There were even a few inches on some rooftops around the more rural parts of Furness Vale and Disley. I overheard someone on the train talking about the Dronfield by-pass on Thursday the 29th, just north of Chesterfield. He and his friend were travelling up the by-pass, which rises from 230ft ASL to a dizzy height of 640ft. No snow at the bottom of the hill but by the time they reached the top, less than 2 mins later, the snow was falling so heavily, the traffic was stumped and unable to climb the last part of the hill, it dumped snow so quickly that hundreds of people abandoned their cars in Dronfield overnight.
On 04 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Just a nice dry sunny typical winters day in Yorkshire, high of 2 degrees. No snow to report in my area. When will this MIA start? Is it next winter, I believe that's when Piers said it would begin and Joe B. Maybe for now the effects will be that spring starts later and we see snow in March more often but not anything severe in true winter Months for a few a Years yet.
On 04 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another cold morning with frost and ice -2 this morning @ 9 a.m.. The chicken water bucket has a nice inch and half of ice around the edge where I have been bashing through each day, but the sun is shining again so another nice be it cold day in store. The -8 info yesterday @ 8 a.m was on the Met Eireann site itself but I know what you mean re temp. Helen they often are approx. esp on mobile phones I check between my phone and outside thermometer here for something close to real time, the small amount of cloud that came in here for a short time late aft. cleared and the night sky was as you mentioned truly lovely last night and moon this morning so orange and striking, small amount of tiny hail also on the outside table from some point too..
On 04 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Nick - you're right it was FFC vs Sunderland last night. I had that story come up on a BBC FA Cup latest 'live feed' link which could not have been a cache error (using a brand new computer) & looked to be still updating (it didn't have the page closed as they do when live feeds end). That is so weird.// Saw this immediately after, (date checked!). Makes no sense in terms of recent colder winters so prob the NHS "winter storm" which the cold weather is adding to..."The death toll of this winter’s cold weather is expected to top 40,000, the highest number for 15 years.
Hospitals are preparing for an influx of people on top of the annual “winter pressures”, especially elderly people and those with illnesses that make them more vulnerable.
The Office for National Statistics has predicted 3,000 deaths due to the cold this week alone." http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-snow-uk-weather-set-to-get-colder-as-beast-from-the-east-blows-in-from-siberia-10019633.html
On 04 Feb 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Craig - Wolves v Fulham: Possibly comparing old reports of their match on 13 Jan to current radar?
On 04 Feb 2015, JohnC wrote:
It has just been a normal end of Jan, beginning of Feb here in Hertfordshire. Some cold and a dusting of snow, same as most years. Nothing sensational and no crisis looming.
On 04 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
THANKS all ESpec for REPORTS AND ANALYSIS. Brill points CRAIG. Now we have R5 we must watch detail and learn. Re short term we have said many times WeatherAction is NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR SHORT RANGE DETAIL FORECASTING. What we can offer in short and medium range is modification of and choosing between model outputs under my Rules on home page. ALL PLEASE pass on and take up the offers now available I guess most readers are avid Snow watchers and dont want to be distracted into more than 3 weeks ahead but Spring or is it "Spring" will come and some farmers need to know now but dont know they can know so please pass it on!
On 04 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
CET for Feb until the 2nd is -2.9C down near the lowest 10th percentile. Looks like it will stay low going forward. 1-10Hpa level also showing warmings again just as the recent lower strat warms at 30-70 have faded. // Bob - yes I had a look back (think made a comm here too) recently at 2013 & the drop in solar activity was notable around the cold. Feb 2012 IIRC had a similar drop. During the drop to zero SSN in Jul 14 was amazing as it was simultaneously timed with the lower temperatures dropping over N. Am (the 'polar vortex in summer' hype) & Russia. Almost like the ribbon of Jetstream just suddenly went slack and then taught as solar activity climbed back up. We had Bertha ~3 weeks after making me wonder about a lag felt over this side of the Atlantic. Smoothed monthly figures obliterates the import of that event /
Watching current activity which had been closing in on ~200 SSN is dropping again to 117. Quick flux changes. Interesting. Now to watch...and wait.
On 04 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Ian - that's completely irrelevant & I believe a somewhat insulting reply unless you are just trolling for reactions (reading your busted flush comment that's hardly a stretch of the imagination). I am quite aware of how the seas that surround our Island modify the weather for our latitude. If I desperately want snow I'll go the Highlands or a short hop over to Norway thanks (last year was poor there tho'). Sea temps on the East coast (i.e. where our winds are coming from) are between 6-9C & last night still gave snow inland away from the coasts. What we have lacked for a 'whiteout' is decent precipitation when the air has easily been cold enough. Evaporative cooling, dew points, pptn rate etc comes into it far more than the seas in Feb. // 'Blizzard' ('whiteout' *cough*) reported by the Telegraph/BBC/Guardian at the Wolves vs Fulham FA Cup match. Could not see anything on the radar except for a single dark red pixel a fair distance off. === http://ow.ly/IrVxa
On 04 Feb 2015, Helen (45 day/ winter subscriber, Co. Leitrim Ireland) wrote:
Another sharp frost early Monday - temp -3.5 up to +0.5 - becoming a bright sunny day, not much wind. Light snow last night (Tues) with temp down to -3.5, but a bright morning & mostly melted locally by 11 am (+0.5). Becoming cloudier and more breezy with some sleet. Temp up to +2 but feeling much colder. Definitely a bite in the air. Bright sunset, & clear evening with beautiful views of rising moon and Jupiter, currently very close together in the sky. Saw this reported with great photos on Spaceweather.com or wouldn't have realised I was looking at Jupiter. Apparently this full moon traditionally known as the Snow Moon! Irish Times on-line weather chart suggesting temp in Dublin at 11 am today was -6. Further to your discussion earlier - most of these recorded temps are only snapshots & probably not in real time, so pretty misleading. Not that my max/min thermometer is much better! After midnight now - still very quiet, frosty with a clear starry sky & moon / Jupiter overhead.
On 03 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, cloudy in a stiff N breeze with light rain showers which gradually turned into wet snow and kept going all morning but didn’t add much to what was lying. Some sun in the afternoon, 2˚ & less windy, then a very beefy snow shower with big wet flakes, looked serious but didn’t last, better to have snow than ice. Clear evening, full moon in a couple of hours, -1˚at 10pm.
On 03 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian MO, now backtracking on cold predictions it made for Central Highlands just 2 days ago. Wonder if it's a busted flush now, eh Ian?
On 03 Feb 2015, Alistair from Hul East Yorkshire wrote:
I've just read the following on a weather forum........."National BBC(MO?) forecast at 18:30. It actually spoke about an increasingly bitter easterly setting in on Thursday, 'straight from Germany' with the high centered over N Ireland and a ridge to Sweden".
Could this be something that's not been seen by the usual models?, could piers forecasting predictions for early February come to fruition despite no real indications from from the current models that we have access to?
On 03 Feb 2015, Paul wrote:
Hasn't been that cold in lowestoft. When the wind is of the land it tends to be snow here but when a long tract (across the sea) it tends to be rain or hail. The air is just not cold enough unless you are well inland or up high. If global cooling does occur northerly winds will come more like the lake effect snow they get in the United States. Still no real or definite sign of global cooling at the moment. Quite a quiet winter, this one but colder than last year.I wonder if each winter from now on until solar activity peeks again is going to get progressively colder.
On 03 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I understand when the forecasts are originally produced but just wondered why it was not adjusted for the first period that's all. Met office have been all over the place with temps and warnings the last week. Piers are you saying whatever happens now you are happy with the Feb forecast?
On 03 Feb 2015, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
Hi all, just been on metO site and read 1 of their weather warnings issued this morning. Hehehehe is it me or have they given up on forecasting but rather gone with pastcasting!!! the link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
The quote "Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action
Issued at: 0832 on Tue 3 Feb 2015
There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Tuesday and 0600 on Monday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action." Priceless!!! Hehe. Enjoy
On 03 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Quite struck by how different the current GFS run is from the MObeeb lunchtime synoptics
On 03 Feb 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine Guernsey // heavy soft hail storm which is now settling absolutely freezing in the wind chill with a cold blast forecast from Germany we may get some snow
On 03 Feb 2015, Harris Keillar - occ subscriber wrote:
Maria - regarding temperatures. I agree with you - the difference in average temperature between a minimum of -4 and a brief spurt to +3 is very different from a minute by minute measurement where say 1320 minutes of the day were below freezing and only 120 above. Lies, damned lies, statistics and then MetO stats!
On 03 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
david the 30 day was released then but it was constructed some time previous which is why you will see 'same as 45 day' and even sometimes 'same as 100 day' on the periods so no surprise.
On 03 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Also the variations as has been said before on here ie urban and rural temps, if they are worried enough to invent new technology ie renewables then why have they not got technology to monitor temp and statistics over a wider area by now to get a more complete picture of what is really happening etc and do you think they will one day? As that would be more fair and honest..
On 03 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
This is probably going to sound like a really stupid question, but I'm wondering if like today in the last 3 hours it has reached 4 deg. Just ( 3 for the last 2 and a bit hours ) then would today be measured as 4 deg . even though it's only been that briefly as I'm sure it's going to drop again, which it just has back to 3 in the time I've written this, as far as data records that would not be a true representation of todays temp really if it were, if you get me so to speak so how do they come up with such accuracy? Just wondering?
On 03 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Ps Irish Weather online have snow and ice pics in their comments on their fb page also for proof of ice n snow here in parts..
On 03 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold/very cold bright at times esp. in Ireland, very cold air with snow showers in N etc forecast has been good for here 1-3rd Jan.
On 03 Feb 2015, Alistair of Hull East Yorkshire. wrote:
David, as Piers states below, the forecast of February turning very cold after a few days with widespread snow and ice, was produced six months ago, as shown on his home page.
Also, going by what someone else has said on another forum... Apparently, a Significant aurora and geomagnetic activity is forecasted between the 4-8th Feb which could Could help displace the High. Someone on here with more weather knowledge than me may be able to explain the actual mechanics of this.
Could this phenomena tie in with what Piers is saying?.
On 03 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Let's keep it fair and honest! The first period of Feb forecast is inaccurate and that is surprising given it was was already cold across the UK and the forecast was issued 31/01/2015. If we now say we are in the 4-8 th period then this is more accurate but not as widespread and severe. Things could still change by the weekend but it would need a big shift of that high pressure for the third period to be anything like what has been foforecasted. I would like to hear others thoughts on this?
On 03 Feb 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL THANKS! Whatever detail follpws we are very pleased with the displaced polar vortex scenario which we warned SIX MONTHS AGO being confirmed to within a day or so. PLEASE see image of pdf WANews15No6 and comment on home page and on Twitter. Please Retweet it and note the BI-WHOLE-SPRING-NOW offer for you or especially anyone with an interest in farming / growing!!
On 03 Feb 2015, JohnE wrote:
Our snow in South Lancs, such as it was did not last long at all. If it had arrived in volume as it did back in 2010 and with the current cold spell then we would still be sledging each evening. Today, just like yesterday it is cold, but not bitterly so, just cold and fresh with clear blue skies. The ground is frozen to a depth of a few inches but only in the shaded areas. It is however quite pleasant outside and I for one am quite happy with the current weather, at least its not raining and miserable with cloudy skies. Could do with more snow though just to balance things off a little however I am fairly sure that we have had our lot for this winter so roll on spring time
On 03 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
-4 this morning here @ 8 a.m -8 Dublin I believe, bitter cold and crisp widespread frost still, the little water garden pond has stayed solid for days now and have had to beat the ice on the chickens water more times this winter with more ice n frost than last that's for sure, A few snow showers in some counties overnight also. Spot on first 3 days of forecast with wall to wall blue sky and sunshine again today, off outside despite the cold to make the most of it, just reached 1 deg now at 11.40...
On 03 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
IAN: record snowfalls in southern Norway( the nearest part of Europe to Scotland) this winter despite the NAD. Now how about answering my other questions.
On 03 Feb 2015, Ian wrote:
Craig M. No wind up. The British Isles are much warmer than the same latitude in the USA due to the North Atlantic Drift. It is also the reason why the coast of Norway is ice free all winter. the seas around British Isles act as a blanket and keep us relatively warm. If you want deep freeze, white out and mega snow go to Chicago, Boston or Ottowa!
On 03 Feb 2015, Steve D wrote:
Well my optimism was duly crushed as I reached my Central Line underground station this morning only to be told that a rail had cracked somewhere near Mile End, so we all had to trudge back through the snow and sludge ridden side-streets and back to our cars to gingerly return home, heads bowed. This overnight event seems heavier than the Meto predicted yesterday, more inbound tonight allegedly. Same as before or worse? Those with the Feb fcst know ;-)
On 03 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Nick-thanks for that. will watch it although the description fits exactly what the current models are saying- see gavvids on ytube
On 03 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
4-8 February 2015 A = 85% this is the period im more interested in maybe it should be 3-10th give a day or two i hope it comes off for Piers as December was not so good last month not bad ,this would put all the models to shame come on r5!!
On 03 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Snow here this morning early 0c had to brush off snow on the car it was a bit dodgy on the side roads this morning, I am talking 5.30 to 7.00, quite thick in places 2 to maybe 3 inches bit difficult to tell in the headlights as it was pitch dark this morning. So piers you were right on the button here in Dorset.
On 03 Feb 2015, Steve D wrote:
Dusting of snow here in SW Essex and still falling, less so further east. :-)
On 03 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
@Catherine - Good point about mentioning how NZ weather varies from the norm when I'm posting comments. On that subject, what I've noticed over the last few summers is that when we get very hot weather in January (as it has been this year) summer has ended early. NZ's hottest month is normally Feb and a good summer stays quite warm through most of Mar. It will be interesting to see if we get that type of summer this year or a short one.
On 03 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Slight dusting of snow here in Rickmansworth, lucky it didnt come during the rush hour, or the whole place would have grid locked ( 5.30 am )
On 03 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
330 & still snowing. 1-2cm. Hardly disruptive but 4hrs is not a 'flurry' nor a 'dusting' Alex Kingston. Ian F much clearer & he's talking about to my west!//Big short term divergence in models. Where oh where will the high go?//MOBeeb weather report just on not convincing & in light of today liable to change//Had a wry smile at the pops on Netwx at the MetO due to the high max temps being advertised-presumably for those standing in doorways of their London house looking out?// P.S. Didn't feel too cold today (see earlier comm) as wisely piled on the extra layers. Streets in eve mainly quiet as everyone was warm inside. Did see teens out on the Town (as it started snowing) in quite skimpy outfits exposing flesh-which is okay if you have a coat (or hats or tights) but they didn't. Is this just a British thing as other countries don't seem quite as mad* & have stylish winter clobber. A healthy respect (not fear) for the weather never goes amiss. *swimming in frigid waters aside
On 03 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Craig, 2013Q1 SF=115 sfu/day (ave) and SSTs took a dive. 2013Q2 SF=128, and SSTs shot back up.
On 03 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Oh my days. The seas are too warm for snow? Tell that to Nov & Dec 2010 or anyone near the Great Lakes. Or is it 'Oh no the sun is too strong in Feb' - presumably Jan-Apr 2013 where it got INCREASINGLY colder is too much for some goldfish minds out there. Look snow is more likely at Easter than Xmas-does that not even tickle the grey matter at all? Such silly statements come out of people I can only presume are ignorant or on the wind up. A modicum of observation over the past few years shows what utter tripe some people will say to push an agenda...which leads to supposedly learned people like Dr Kevin Trenberth (who imo is either batcrazy or a compulsive liar) blaming the recent NE snowstorm* (rated outside the top 50)...in part
..on co2. Seriously, April fools is weeks away. If you keep this up Kevin I may have to sue as my sides are splitting. * http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/02/about-the-claims-that-northeast-u-s-blizzards-have-been-amplified-by-human-induced-global-warming/
On 03 Feb 2015, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Lovely surprise to see big fat flakes falling & instantly settling. Started just after 11pm. Still going (but smaller flakes) @1240am & made a snowball! (did snow sat morn but melted early & I only saw a few piles-a small trace still left this afternoon along with frozen puddles even tho' it really didn't feel all that cold). That's 4 falls of snow since last Sat, although rather pathetic in amounts I have had a rather silly grin on my face watching it fall//
7 minute MetO warning...:)...."Issued at:
2008 on Mon 2 Feb 2015
Valid from:
2015 on Mon 2 Feb 2015
Valid to:
1000 on Tue 3 Feb 2015
Showers of sleet and snow will affect the area later today and overnight and for a while on Tuesday morning, bringing local accumulations of 1-2 cm, perhaps around 5 cm for the North York Moors. There is also a a risk of ice on untreated surfaces. The warning has been updated to delay onset of impacts due to the snow and slightly reduce the northward extent" Was not there this morn
On 02 Feb 2015, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// watching BBC 4 about Aaran Swartz the 36 year old computer whizz who hanged himself - he was trying to expose government and data which should be available to the public Free, very very complicated but halfway through this programme a computer expert says the Government had a case against him, but all Aaran wanted to find out about was data that should be freely shared as you had to pay to access but seemingly what he stumbled on was corporate funding of climate science given to research databases which In turn would be given out as biased results. Now that is really scary.
On 02 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Just about 1˚C at 7.30, a little snow overnight, which makes walking & driving easier, though pretty icy underneath. Not much wind today, high cumulus clouds & altostratus which was blocking out direct sunlight at times. Max temp 2˚, down to -1˚ by 10pm. == As soon as we get off our hill, there is no snow and there was none north of Aberdeen in the coastal strip when we went up to Ellon today. In the summer we sometimes moan about the proximity of the sea because of the haar, but in winter it’s a definite advantage for keeping the snow quantities low, except when we get a Siberian blast. As was the case in 80/81 (I think) when the ground was frozen down to 18” for 3 weeks and we had -22˚ in our location.
On 02 Feb 2015, tony (sub) wrote:
well the usa gonna have a winter for another 6 weeks at least the local groundhog came out saw its shadow and went back local folklore apparently.......mayb the met should have got 1 from usa would have been more accurate and certainly cheaper than the computor.snowing here in northants got at least a cm
On 02 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
RON, the thing is, we buy forecasts to get an edge on the met office, and bare in mind the forecast for this week was issued two days ago with a confidence level of 80%..it may yet come to pass but its not looking like it right now
On 02 Feb 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
[contd] MO 6 - 15 day outlook on 26 Jan:
"UK Outlook for Friday 30 Jan 2015 to Sunday 8 Feb 2015: Sunny spells and blustery wintry showers Friday, the latter primarily affecting northern and western parts with snow across hills and to low levels in the north. It will likely turn even colder through the weekend with sleet and snow showers, frequent across northern parts, with overnight frost and ice. Strong northerly winds, with gales in places, will accentuate the cold with a significant wind chill. The best of the drier, brighter conditions will be in the south. These conditions may well last into the first week of February, but there are signs of more changeable weather by the end of the forecast period. By then, spells of wind and rain would mean that temperatures may return to nearer normal and the likelihood of snow, frost and ice would be lower. "
On 02 Feb 2015, Nick, Berks wrote:
Richard, re MO long range, your link didn't work very well for me but from you description of it it doesn't sound like their 6-30 day outlook text summaries - see e.g. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvn15h9#?tab=regionalForecast - which are not automatic model outputs. They do change very day but that doesn't stop them being forecasts. Personally I find them quite useful though on the 15-30 day time frame they do lack detail and often default to generalities of the type 'it will generally be colder and wetter in the NW than the SE'. In the following post I'll paste what they were saying when Piers issued his public warning in the Express on 26 Jan: http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/554183/Britain-red-alert-displaced-Polar-vortex-unleash-weather-hell-next-week [contd]
On 02 Feb 2015, Geoff wrote:
Adrian Berry's Sky in February piece in the Daily Telegraph today gives the CO2 shysters a darned good kicking over their Unscience, albeit with a bit of a sting in the tail for those of us who like to sleep a'nights. One good Nova could cook our collective geese-or perhaps the Windmills will deflect any such incoming nasties?
Are the Astronomers and Astrophysicists rallying to the banner of Sir Piers de Corbyn?
On 02 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Don't jump the gun people. I was only joking about The Germans. Had a chance to look at the charts tonight and it is all to play for Piers, steady as she goes!
On 02 Feb 2015, Mike wrote:
@IAN and those who question PC Feb cast, I am too doubting whether some aspects of the forecast will come off, that HP is stubbon and unlikely to allow sufficient LP to infultrate. Having said that, the HP appears to sink south and allow milder through bty the end of the week, could we have a classic battleground mild/cold scenario?? Lets see....
On 02 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
IAN: Well you have answered the first question and put it on the line fair enough so that just leaves now: would it be the MObeeb or Piers that would be most likely to admit error and explain why despite being wrong at 36 hours they should not receive the same opprobrium as Piers if he was wrong at 36 days previously?
On 02 Feb 2015, Mike wrote:
Re: Ian's Comment
Just to clarify on one piece of your comment. Cold air over warm waters, especially around the UK from a Northerly, North Easterly or Easterly. Would pick up lots of moisture and produce LOADS OF SNOW!!!!
On 02 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the only public long range meto give that i can see are here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/events#?tab=map&map=events&zoom=5&lon=-3.25&lat=55.58 So watch these forecasts and you will probably see they change everyday because they are directly linked to the models like the 5 day forecast so are not forecasts at all just snapshot of what the models are currently saying. They stopped long range forecasts to the public back in 2014 after being wrong so many times they couldn't stand the criticism. Nowadays anyone who wants a long range from meto has to pay for it or watch gavvids where one can see how quickly the models change and the huge range of options they give. So meto is not right because it does not forecast. It just repeats what the models say which changes everyday
On 02 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Have the Germans stole our snow again?? Any update piers?
On 02 Feb 2015, Ian wrote:
Answer for Ron Greer. BBC MetO will be right. There is no sign for a Pier's type Sudden Stratospheric Warming. The seas around the British Isles are too warm to allow a white out or mega dump of snow across the UK. If it were to happen this month, then a prolonged biting cold wind from the East / Siberia would be needed.
On 02 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Met Eireann here had a yellow ice and snow warning yesterday and have just issued another today similar again mainly Ulster Connaght and West Munster 2-3 cm.. Irish Weather Online said over the weekend "snowfall watch" with possibility for "Advanced Alert " which they have issued this morn. with regard to locally heavy snowfall bands on Tuesday, they said still have uncertainty and will update this eve. on their site, also they have a few pics of a little snowfall this morning on high ground in Kerry, west cork and started snowing 20 mins ago in Donegal I believe..
On 02 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
For me, as a subscriber, if its not going to happen i would appreciate a heads up say by wednesday. Must say, its not looking like it at the mo.
On 02 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
IAN; whilst waiting for your answer to my previous post, here's another point for ypu to ponder. 36 hrs ago the MObeeb were raising concerns about disruptive snofallf coming in from the north. The tartan MObeeb up here, which often gives somewhat different forecasts from its METmaster, was saying last night, that they had overestimated the intensity and were backtracking. Why should Piers be more accurate at 36 days than they are at 36 hrs?
On 02 Feb 2015, Steven Glossop wrote:
Hi piers, just to add something to the the discussion on the CET. I made a comment on here to piers about the cet last year explaining how many records cold and hot have been broken in the last 50 or 60 years and a lot of extremes in that time. Piers explained some of this is down to the wild jet stream behaviour we have seen in the last few years. And also that the data further back is smoothed out for many reasons. Its a brilliant guide to how climate has changed over the last 300years. But comparing recent data with older 1800s and further back is impossible.
On 02 Feb 2015, Catherine (45 d sub) wrote:
Ron, Mobeeb forecast changed for this area within hours yesterday. Earlier forecast for Monday overnight had a front coming from northwest over Scotland causing snow to fall over west of Scotland as far as, and including, central belt. Late evening weather last night has snow over far north west only.
Lorraine Lister: I agree totally. I've been following this site for a few years. I'm interested in weather related comments, especially with regard to 'global warming' and alternative views, such as those regarding selective use of temperature records, but not in all the sniping. BTW, when you give your weather reports from NZ it would be good to know how the weather you're getting differs from the norm for your area.
On 02 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
If one was to make a world temperature proxy if such a thing was possible then we would have to establish the correlation of ratios. How much of the world is urban how much rural [also type of rural-mountain moor lowland etc]. Any dataset capture zone would then have to match those ratios. If we say 2.7% is urban [see http://www.newgeography.com/content/001689-how-much-world-covered-cities] then that would leave rural as 97.3% . We would then have to find some location of sufficient size that matched those ratios. Which wouldn't be CET would it [that includes london birmingham oxford bristol etc]? I can't find any ready percentage how much of CET is urban but i suspect its more than 2.7%. I also suspect it would be hard to find any location in uk of any size outside the highlands that was 2.7% urbanised. If CET is 40% urban then to use it as a world proxy is to say the world is 40% urban.
On 02 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Well said Richard, the Mobeeb can't even stay consistent within 5 days, let alone 45 days--we'll know at the end of the week, including who'll be the most honest in admitting they were wrong and why. Tell us Ian, do you think it'll be the MObeeb or Piers?
On 02 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Ian- lol usual mixing of long range wa and short range meto. What did meto say 45 days ago for this next month? U don't know? then look it up.
On 02 Feb 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Very cold here this morning in the sunny SE. Frozen tap, frozen water butt by chickens, duck pond, and frozen ground. Weather running to folklore - 'As the days grow longer the cold gets stronger'. Any explanation of SLACK?
On 02 Feb 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
CET is being used as a proxy for the world by the major co2 institutions which seems odd given it begins at the low point of an mini ice age so a trendline will always slope up . Lamb who made CET stated that its just a rough outline created out of scraps of data and includes the problem of the transition from the Julian to Gregorian calendar- which occurred in 1752 in Britain making 11 days difference yet today co2ers are using it with a precision of 0.1C to claim hottest year etc. Rural stations used are now urban and the CET triangle covers the main urban centers of uk which is one giant heat island. So why do co2ers use what effectively is an urban heat island' temperature record as proxy for the world? Given modern precision why not create a better dataset that would cover mountain and moor and not just urban centers? Because it wouldn't be as useful to the co2ers narrative? To use a small part of urbanised uk as a world proxy for continental size land masses isn't credible
On 02 Feb 2015, Ian wrote:
So who is right for the UK weather this week? BBC Countryfile MetO or Weatheraction? There is a massive difference between the two forecasts! If Piers is wrong then he is a busted flush!
On 02 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian MO now backtracking on severity of cold predicted for north/central Highlands with very little snow between the 3-11th February and it getting milder by around the 10th--and this just within a few days from their last prediction. BTW record snowfalls in parts of the Vestlandet counties this winter.
On 02 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
MObeeb struggling to deal with the activity of the front coming down from the Northwest tonight/tomorrow with oscillating predictions of amounts and extent of snow.
On 02 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
@East Side - Is it really necessary for you to be so cutting towards people in the UK regarding winter weather? They don't live in Russia like you so show a bit of tolerance - a little compassion towards Gill's son's girlfriend wouldn't go amiss either. Even in NZ with our relatively mild winters drivers can get caught out in areas that wouldn't warrant the purchase of winter tyres or snow chains and we often have accidents on black ice on frosty mornings. Sure, people in the UK are less prepared than they used to be (I grew up there and remember cold, snowy winters) but there's no need to be nasty.
On 02 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The double R3 at the end of Jan is still being felt in NZ with rain, thunder and lightening coupled with a very warm , humid northerly. We ended up with 15 mm of rain here which has helped but we could do with more.
On 02 Feb 2015, Bspin wrote:
Hey Stu,(I don't come here often)
Glad to hear you feel insulted by my comment,while you sit on your ass pontificating about what you 'think you know' In a lovely warm cosy office, I have been out in the Shit weather keeping your F*cking computer on.YOU INSULT ME and every other person Grafting out there to keep the power on.
I suggest you go over to WUWT to Parrot your Bullshit.
On 01 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Stayed a beaut of a sunny winters day today, temp slowly just reached 4 deg. here but within the hour climbed back down to 2 deg. frost and ice remained all day and another cold night -3 at 23.30 pm
On 01 Feb 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30 and hovering around that all day. Some snow overnight, barely 1”, snow showers off & on most of the day, bright sunshine inbetween. Cold & sharp N’ly wind turning all the slush into ice, -1˚ at 9.30pm.
On 01 Feb 2015, Harris Keillar - Edinburgh 150msubscriber wrote:
VERY strong Northerly winds last night -roof ridge off friends house near Loch Tay - c 150kph winds. No snow there, though heavy snow further north though no new snow here in Edinburgh.. Along with others saw tonight's Countryfile so conflicted as hoping from a business perspective he's wrong, though from a SLAT and CO2 one that he nails it!
On 01 Feb 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Lorraine Lister (NZ) - Yes, of course they do. Quote of the week for me is:
There was a time once when senior political figures said things and I listened, purely on the assumption that they must be better informed, more experienced, and with better contacts and understanding.
Like the plan that falls apart with first contact with the enemy, my deference to "senior political figures" survived for as long as it took for me to meet some of them, when the residual question became one of how these people manage to function on the incredibly low level of knowledge and understanding that they actually possessed. Thanks to Richard North of EUreferendum for that gem.
On 01 Feb 2015, Helen (45 day/ winter subscriber, Co. Leitrim Ireland) wrote:
Clear skies & stiff frost last night, with temp down to -3.5 deg. My cat stayed out all night in it, but seemed none the worse! Lovely sunny day, feeling very cold, but temp up to 4 deg. A bit of sleet late afternoon (temp +1.5). Saturday was sunny, but cold with wintry showers, while Friday was very wet - mostly rain, with some sleet. Most of the snow from Thurs melted, but still lying on the hills and verges, and today's frost has persisted in some places. Strong winds forecast for Thurs night didn't seem too bad here & very little wind today. Thanks for the 30 day update, Piers. I guess this massive coronal hole + the full moon is going to be the trigger (or part of it) for our R5 drama ... It's scary, but hope it all comes off.... I've finally bought a snow shovel.They joked in the shop about a money back guarantee if it doesn't get used during the next 10 years. This one had been sitting on display since our last severe winter of 2009/ 10. I said they might be in for a surprise!
On 01 Feb 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Latest report on the dry weather this summer in NZ with an unscientific quote of rubbish from James Renwick http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11395038 Two years ago the whole country was in drought but that seems to have been quickly forgotten. Meanwhile, NIWA's website is showing near normal rainfall for the whole country in their 3 monthly seasonal climate outlook. Do they think we're all complete idiots?
On 01 Feb 2015, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Mmm just seen the countryfile forecast for the week ahead ,i hope they are wrong and Piers is right esp after the December Headline which did not work out well , ,R5 period coming up needs to work its magic so i hope it does ,at least we have a winter this year sub zero nights to come !
On 01 Feb 2015, Jeff wrote:
Feb forecast reminds of 2011 (think it was) It had Piers forecast saying snow, the models and forecasters were all saying no snow.
Must admit I thought Piers is off his rocker standing by his forecast, was he proven right!!
On 01 Feb 2015, C View wrote:
On Countryfile tonight a report tried it's hardest to scare us all by making out that a whole raft of exotic diseases are just waiting to engulf European livestock becaused of "continued global temperature rise" whatever that is!!!!
On 01 Feb 2015, east side wrote:
"it doesn't justify spending on huge fleets of snow ploughs & gritters"
In Russia & Baltic states they don't either.
It's well known that salt has no effect once the temp drops below -2>-3C so in any case it's all wasted money throwing salt on frozen roads.
The only justification for it in the "compensation culture", demanded by a bourgois culture obsessed with safety & insurance is having someone else to blame other than yourself=claim on insurance!
You go out with summer tyres on cold winter roads, hit some ice, kill yourself or someone else, IT'S YOUR FAULT, not a council.
The sooner people start to learn this lesson in today's UK the better it will be for everyone, just like building houses on proven flood plains or next to a farm with a cock that crows at 4am in summer.
There is a law of cause & effect which people hate to be reminded of,-especially when mother nature takes precedence against little nanny state doing "make belief".
Mother nature will ALWAYS win.
On 01 Feb 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Russ, Svalgaard and others have studied the solar corona from the 1600's - 1700's via the use of drawings observers made back then during lunar eclipses (new moon), where they reported the "strahl" - the coronal "field lines" that are plainly visible at those times. They found that yes, the sun was still going through cycles as it does now. Another method is the use of auroral records. Both sources are spotty in time, so together with that information and the geomagnetic obs made then, and with the also spotty sunspot observations, he, Clette, and many others have reconstructed the SSN record, and will be shortly publishing those numbers that will replace the SIDC numbers. When that happens, I will use those numbers as well as the F10.7 history in my solar model. That's why I haven't released my model yet. Until those numbers are available I cannot make a valid equivalent SSN to match my ~120 sfu warming/cooling threshold, as the current official SIDC #'s will soon be "obsolete".
On 01 Feb 2015, Mike wrote:
Re: Mike
Not all models are forecasting a easterly, not yet anyway. You are making it out as if they are all singing from the same hymn sheet which they are not. Please clarify which models are predicting. Not to mislead people.
On 01 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Piers, none of the conventional forecasters seeing what you have predicted for the end of this week, are your confidence levels still 85% ?
On 01 Feb 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
models now varying on whether, we'll get the banality of a few flakes of snow and a wee air of wind on the east side of Scotland, but having been in the Soviet Union for a spell, I know the state did not act like a nanny, not even such a nice one as Nanny McPhee
On 01 Feb 2015, Mike wrote:
So models going for an easterly end of the week for the southern half of the UK. Who will win, Piers or models? See the 30d...
On 01 Feb 2015, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Looking at Feb It has to be said I can't see how the heavy snow falls are going to come at the minute. Solar factors are going to need to shake things up alot I would have thought? The cold is here but the pieces of the jigsaw are not in place as yet! I think what has been forecasted we had last week and things are settling down now. This week should bring the perfect winter weather - cold and frosty with sunshine. Who wants disruption, loss of earnings etc from snow??
On 01 Feb 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Very interesting posts as usual Bob Weber, thanks for your continued input..... The huge coronal holio on the sun has come around again, and is just as gigantic as before. Only another few years and we may see it cover most of the sun's southern hemisphere. That's my prediction. Did astronomers notice any changes in the solar corona during the 16' or 1700s I wonder? Craig? Bob?
On 01 Feb 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
east side - it is a matter of economics. Snow happens relatively rarely in the SE and it doesn't justify spending on huge fleets of snow ploughs and gritters, although these days many are demount units to use the truck for other things. Also people just can't cope with the snow. Less than 3/4" brought chaos here last week, but you have mentioned one solution to it - winter tyres. I bought a set on rims off ebay for £300 so I am OK. Another light snowfall overnight here on The Downs with a gusty NE wind.
On 01 Feb 2015, Yamkin wrote:
Due to high energy levels striking the earth's core, the polar vortex will in my opinion shunt the Atlantic forcing colder air to penetrate our shores
On 01 Feb 2015, Steve,Dorset UK sub wrote:
Is this the sort of scientists that piers was talking about....
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Vulcanology
cartoonsbyjosh / 16 hours ago January 31, 2015.
You can see it on the WUWT webb site have a look if you want a laugh. Chill wid a blowing today nice and sunny though, no real frost over night a smidgen temp of 6 now 10.40 am.
On 01 Feb 2015, Richard Brown from Hull East Yorkshire wrote:
Still waiting for the snow met office forecast, to fall on Hull.....
On 01 Feb 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
East Side - I am not complaining about the government or the state of rural roads not being gritted- just stating the facts - that if you go out early in the morning - take care. In an area that has snow you would expect difficult driving conditions that warrant winter tyres. But here especially in the SE we may get no more that seven days of bad weather over a winter. My solution is to stay home -or use the landrover. That said the husband of a former school friend of my son - (mid twenties) was going to work in a landrover a month ago early in the morning (7am ish) a few miles away; he too hit ice - crashed into a tree and lost his life. he left a four week old daughter. As farmers we know that rural roads are not gritted - and do not expect them to be. The biggest problem around here are the ditches and drains which are always overflowing leaving surface water which then freezes. ..... That said can someone tell me what SLACK stands for?
On 01 Feb 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
-1 at 9 a.m hard frost and beautiful sunshine 0 deg now Feeling very cold at 9.45... Thanks for 30d Piers..
On 01 Feb 2015, stephen parker ( sub ) Herts wrote:
Just seen my 30 day, looks like an interesting month!. Seems piers has taken note of us in the South East, so we don't get over excited!.
Met office is going for cold but dry here, could be an interesting week!
On 01 Feb 2015, east side wrote:
"My son's girlfriend flipped her car over on black ice ...ungritted rural road - and we aren't even in the snow belt!"
The solution is > WINTER TYRES<, like is obligatory in most northern EU countries.
STOP blaming the governement for "ungritted" roads.It's called WINTER and it happens every year.
In what other northern country would you have "A66 Jan29 closed by snow" for nothing at all?
Britain.
"if Scotland is getting 100-150kph winds, and 25cm of snow causing blizzards"
Big deal!
You think they don't have the same weather in Norway, or Sweden?
25cm of snow is banal normal overnight weather in Moscow, Warsaw, Kiev or Tallinn.
The only place where the trains, planes, roads comes to a stop is "modern" hi tech Britain.
Pathetic!
On 31 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Temperature between 1˚ & 2˚C all day, beefy N’ly wind, frequent rain, sleet & wet snow showers all day with very little sun, snow making a half-hearted attempt at sticking but not succeeding. Later in the night, heavier snow showers, sticking with us on top of our hill, but what is surprising is the wetness of it seen that it’s coming from the North, it’s a real slushfest.
On 31 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Snow this morning on The Downs at around 7am. A covering about 3/4" deep but it fairly soon started to get wet and slushy, melting away by the afternoon. Cloudy and cold, and starting to freeze at 10.30pm.
On 31 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
The east side if Scotland is getting 100-150kph winds, and 25cm of snow causing blizzards--just another few flakes of snow in a nanny state.
On 31 Jan 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
6 M-class solar flares in the last three days caused ionization in the upper atmosphere that led to discharge events to the Earth – an “electric weather effect” – that caused earthquakes in CT and the UK. They also triggered cyclogenesis in the ocean near Madagascar, tropical cyclone Bansi, seen here http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/bansi-southern-indian-ocean/. An M5 flare on Jan 15 caused tropical storm Chedza, which impacted Madagascar Jan 16-17, and killed 68 people. See http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=13&month=01&year=2015 and look at the location of the flare impact. Just more SOLAR-INDUCED ELECTRIC WEATHER events! The SUN causes warming, cooling, and extreme weather events, not CO2! Photons, protons, and electrons cause the weather and climate to change, not CO2! CAGW/AGW is going down hard this year. Count on it.
On 31 Jan 2015, Richard Brown from Hull, East Yorkshire wrote:
Morning all. Its raining here in Hull though there is slush on the side roads near me so snow has fallen overnight. There still seems to be a lot of talk around the internet about the easterly beast paying the UK a visit later next week. Looking at various charts, I cant really see this happening but then again, the weather is changing all the time and the met are issuing yellow warnings here, there and everywhere so they seem to be trying to cover all bases. I do suspect they have subscribed to the winter forecast as they issued weather warnings 4 days in advance which is not something they normally do!! This winter is turning out to be very interesting and there is lots more drama to come, I imagine!
On 31 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS currently gone 'shy' but yesterday was indicating continuing but varied cold, a brief milder spell at the beginning of the 2nd week of Feb, then a return to deeper cold, mid month. The Norwegian MO fairly similar, with a very sharp period 4th to 8th Feb for the Central Highlands at least. Been freeze/thaw since yesterday here, snow flurries in cold strong wind and nasty black ice with frozen slush. Spikes on felt-pack boots time again!
On 31 Jan 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
9.30am Heavy snow.... whether it will settle?
On 31 Jan 2015, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
January was a mixed month for NZ, very dry in the east of both islands with rain confined mainly to areas in the mid to upper north of the North Island, south of the South Island and the West Coast of the South Island. Overall it was a hot month and we've certainly felt it here in Motueka (Tasman, top of the South Island) with temps more like Feb than Jan. This last week we've had averages of 25-26 deg and it hasn't cooled much at night only to about 17 or 18 which has meant the house has stayed unbearably hot. Some places have been reaching 30 deg. Some rain overnight last night with more forecast across the country tomorrow.
On 30 Jan 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers, I think you are right, we are at the beginning what you've been calling the "mini-ice age". Why, and what does that mean? It means the Earth is very soon going to cool off due to less solar radiation, moreso than the past cool-downs since the solar modern maximum ended in 2003. Since then the solar flux has averaged just 100 sfu. I determined last summer that the Earth warms and cools at about 120 sfu. Since then I've refined my solar supersensitivity accumulation model, and am now looking at the timing of the cooldown wrt falling solar activity. It makes a difference what the exact breakeven value is, as one or two sfu can move the cooloff time from early this year to as late as 2017. The polar ice caps grew after the 2006 arctic ice minimum- so the world is indeed cooling off long-term. The reason 2014 ended warm was not as the MET office said, "due to late year ocean warming caused by 'climate change'" NO! It was high 4th Q SOLAR activity >150sfu, esp mid-Nov thru Dec @ 163.
On 30 Jan 2015, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Really surprised this morning that there was no visible frost and the temperature was 3˚ at 7.30. Ground remained frozen though, bar the surface layer where the sun shone, and yes, we’ve had another splendid sunny day. Max temp 4˚ with a constant NW’ly breeze which was not particularly cold, perhaps because the air mass circulating around the Scandinavian Low is originating from the Continent and has travelled over the relatively warm North Sea? 2˚ at 9pm when we had rain and big wet snowflakes for a time. Still no snow lying in our location.
On 30 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Ps Ron that's a grand idea I think I will go to a charity shop and get some new clothes and burn the ones my partner and I are wearing, would put our fuel boiler to the test and reduce our carbon footprint as long as we don't burn our shoes too :))
On 30 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Very cold wind tonight a few flakes of snow with it now at 20.26 pm can only dream of it being like the 6" of snow you have had Bob! Piers re feb 30d forecast " are we nearly there yet?" lol!-) On a serious note Gill glad your sons girlfriend is ok, the downside to cold weather and un gritted roads, we used to grit our road when we lived in the uk as was lethal but at least then they used to leave grit out to do it..
On 30 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
GERRY N DOWNS: well said mate, some people might find it cheaper to go to a charity shop and buy lots of layers to burn in a stove, rather than pay for fuel bills!
Its namby- pamby stuff up here again MacNannyland, only -11c, then blizzards with storm force winds driving the skiers away from the ample snow that has lain for over since late December.
On 30 Jan 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) on Jan 7 that displaced the polar vortex was the first major electric weather event of 2015, and was caused by a high density solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) that had maximal impact at 0900UTC Jan 6. The big 24nT impact, which lasted for several hours, caused a huge spike in hemispheric power, 4X background. Bz flipped from 10nT positive to negative 24nT very quickly as the boundary edge passed by the Earth, causing major electron precipitation, a big 3% daily drop in Oulu cosmic ray intensity, warmed the stratospheric ozone just south of Greenland ( which is why it's called a SSW), expanding the atmosphere at those heights, making waves causing the polar vortex to shift. Spaceweather.com called it an "unexpected G3-class geomagnetic storm"; the next day they featured a story about how it caused "beautiful aurora in Russia" that night. Kp went up to 6 by 0900UTC and then up to 7 by 1200UTC. The question is: how did Piers know about the SSBC?
On 30 Jan 2015, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Great January USA forecast Piers! Today powdery snow in NE perfectly followed "static expanding high" there; mild/warm interior states; thunderstorms, cloudy, misty, drizzly in four corners area; cold 30s in NW; and sharp frosts in Carolinas. I didn't see fog in N KY or S GA, but conditions were good for it there. Extreme blizzard conditions for 21-23 in Michigan didn't materialize but forecasted lows for then blasted south of us to the East Coast where your forecast held true for their 'big' blizzard (nothing special there in my book) caused by your SSW-displaced polar vortex cold arctic air clashing with moist solar-warmed ocean evaporation. We in N. Michigan received a nice 6" snow dump on the 27th, where Piers called for "snow showers". Lunar air tides helped bring ocean warmth and moisture far north this week as lunar north node is tomorrow. Solar flux dropped to 120 sfu a week ago, up to 172 yesterday, today about the same as SSN went up (small spots), 6 M-flares in last 3 days.
On 30 Jan 2015, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
what CET won't record- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-31042233
On 30 Jan 2015, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
My son's girlfriend flipped her car over on black ice this morning just one mile away from us at about 7.15am. Thankfully she is OK. Someone stopped and got her out via the boot as the car was on its side. Not speeding - just unseen treacherous conditions -a thin layer of frozen surface water on an ungritted rural road - and we aren't even in the snow belt!
On 30 Jan 2015, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter follow please) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS COMMS ALL == RE DISRUPTION AND SNOW ETC - (JohnC*) The warning to COBRA/PM was some time ahead and of course refers to more than just today. (*You need a forecast.) MetO forecasts cannot tell what is needed to be known a long time ahead. There have been disruptive impacts reported in last few days including airports and of course NHS services in some parts are on a knife edge so COBRA could well help organise response (although the Govt would say 'Crisis-what-Crisis' re NHS or on the other hand it might be handy for them to blame the weather) ==>>> ALL NOTE THE AMAZING OFFERS espec for 6m/12m B+I, Europe and USA. Get NOW - 30d forecasts imminent! Thanks
On 30 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
east side - did you miss out a bit of the advice such as: 'Try to keep temperature to 18C if you can afford to use your heating given the price rises caused by our renewable energy policy and carbon taxes. The clear night has given way to a cloudy morning and it is melting now so that asphalt surfaces are damp. Still cold though.
On 30 Jan 2015, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Showers here last night turned back to rain as temp climbed a little, any snow gone from here this morn. 3 deg. But feels colder with the wnw fresh wind, some blue sky and sunshine with some cloud moving on in..
On 30 Jan 2015, John C wrote:
If we are now in the cold period forecasted by WA, can somebody elighten me why COBRA needed to be informed of this? From what I see from the news around the country this hardly warrants a crisis response from the government.
On 30 Jan 2015, Russ NE Derbysheepshire wrote:
Set off Thursday in 2 inches of snow but 3 hrs later I was in sunny Kent and it was dry, sunny, mostly blue sky with a dash of fluffy whites, but spoiled by a cool breeze. Heading up the M1 towards Northampton and the dark clouds away to the north were getting closer and started to sleet. By the time I hit Leicester it was blizzard, white-out conditions with most traffic down to 30mph. At home the snow had maxed at around 3 inches. The temperature difference between Kent and Derbyshire seemed immense, a real shock!
On 30 Jan 2015, east side wrote:
NANNY STATE BRITAIN!
A few flakes of snow then:-
(Do you ever get rubbish like this written in Germany or France?)
"Dr Angie Bone, head of extreme events at PHE, said: "It's worth remembering that most outdoor slips, trips and falls in weather like this are of those who are of working age, accidents can happen to anyone. So if you're heading out, wear lots of thin layers and shoes with a good, slip-resistant grip.
"If you're staying indoors, have plenty of warm food and drinks to stay warm. Try to maintain indoor temperatures to at least 18C, particularly if you are not mobile, have long-term illness or are over 65 and check weather forecasts and plan your day around them."
On 30 Jan 2015, Linda'(wales) wrote:
Still got snow on the ground from wednesday just over 5 inches ...been snowing every day on and off blustery showers -3 wind chilli 971.6 hpa ...9.8 gust...north.east wind...freezing ......cant get car out ....highest point 1350 ft asl......brynmawr gwent south wales....
On 30 Jan 2015, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Snow! Trundling along on the train home and climbing up onto The Downs it suddenly appeared on the station platform; a layer of settled snow. Not a huge amount but it seemed to be enough to freak out drivers as it was gridlock in the village heading to the A217. About 3/4" has fallen sometime just before 4pm and had been compressed already to be quite icy. Walking back from panto rehearsal at just after 10pm it had frozen and was quite slippy. Been cold all day in London and there was rain - the extra height of The Downs makes all the difference.
On 29 Jan 2015, Ron Greer wrote:
See the MObeeb finally cottoned on to double digit frosts coming next week. They are reading these posts!
On 29 Jan 2015, Steven Glossop wrote:
Hi piets, im a regular subscriber. And your cold spell starting end of jan/beginning of feb is awesome from months ahead. Just one question I would appreciate if you could answer. On wednesday two smell earthquakes happened in england. Are these related to solar activity. Keep up the gret work
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