WA News 2009 No52 - 9th August
Typhoon Morakot thrashes Taiwan in line with WeatherAction EndGame forecast. Extreme events worldwide well confirm forecasts for 4-6 August Solar Weather Impact Period - Also other News: WeatherAction in headlines
26 Extreme events Worldwide were forecasted by WeatherAction for August 2009 and were Videoed for the record 31 July. The August Extreme Taster Summary is on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1QMG8C1r0s
The detailed extreme Events forecasts themselves are available in pdf format via www.WeatherAction.com and 'Purchase Forecasts' link = http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact8&fsize=0
Typhoon Morakot broke 50year rainfall records in parts of Taiwan as buildings collapsed under floods and WeatherAction's End game forecast was confirmed for Morakot to power down in terms of winds and take a more southerly track than standard forecasts had stated.
Taiwan hotel collapses after typhoon = video
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8191965.stm
On 6 August when Morakot had sustained Typhoon-1 for more than 12hrs and official forecasts issued a Cat3 warning WeatherAction issued an endgame forecast that "Morakot is UNLIKELY to reach Cat3 (75%) and is likely to take a MORE SOUTHERLY track ie turn towards left of the standard Met predictions (below) (65%)" stated Piers Corbyn 10.19hrs UTC thur 6 Aug 2009 (re approach of Morakot to Taiwan)
(See: 6th August 2009 WeatherAction News No 50 WeatherAction spot on forecast for South China Sea Storm Goni and END GAME TRIAL FORECAST for Typhoon Morakot headed for Taiwan )
Both aspects of this forecast were confirmed as is seen by examination of the initial official forecast map (below) and subsequent tracks (further below). Morakot did NOT reach Cat 3, and only reached cat 2 for 6 hours see: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp200909.track.html
Piers Corbyn. astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com commented
"We are very pleased with this result - our first endgame** forecast for a major Taiwan hit typhoon. As we predicted Morakot did not reach the Cat3 level of standard models and hit Taiwan a bit further South than they expected. Interestingly its rather slow speed of progress may have caused extra concentration of rain and floods.
"Our forecasts for this notable SWIP (Solar Weather Impact Period) 4-6 Aug have been reasonably verified at rate 4/5:
Ew0958 4-6 Aug "Bay Of Bengal Tropical Storm Development in North of Bay Of Bengal with (consequent) very heavy rain likely in Central & North India." Confirmed for essential event
- Although developments did not reach Tropical Storm status there were massive rains and resultant landslips in North India -Twelve dead in northern India landslide Aug 8th:
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/twelve-dead-in-northern-india-landslide-20090808-edn2.html
Ew0959 4-6 Aug "South China Sea or nearby parts of Pacific Typhoon Formation / Rapid Development Landfall Hit likely eg Hainan (China) or Vietnam": Confirmed
- Typhoon Goni reached TS status in South China Sea 3 Aug 18z http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2009/GONI/track.dat
and subsequently hit Hainan.
In the same time window Typhoon-2 Morakot formed in the Pacific part of this forecast area as TS on 4 Aug 00z: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2009/MORAKOT/track.dat
and subsequently hitting Taiwan and China
Ew0960 4-6 Aug "East Pacific TS formation / Rapid Development At sea off Mexico Landfall NOT likely"; Confirmed by two storms at sea off Mexico no landfall: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2009/index.html
- TS Enrique TS Form 04Aug 03z
- Hurricane 4 Felicia TS Form 04 Aug 15z
Ew0961 5-6 Aug TS Form/ development South of North Tropical Atlantic prob tracking into Caribbean with 50/50 chance of heavy rain / wind effects in Caribbean - Not confirmed
- NB invest 99 is Next time window of 8/9 Aug
Extreme events 4-6 Aug window score including end game 4/5.
Note on scoring: The timing of TS Formation & Rapid Development event is when TS level is reached or if TS level is not reached it is the rime off the first sustained peak wind. The appearance of additional events to a confirmation does not in any way negate the best confirming event.
**Last season WeatherAction endgame Tropical storm forecasts were very successful in predicting, a number of 'Endgame corrections to standard Tropical Storm models' - for examplethat Hurricane Ike would power up and head towards Galveston rather than Corpus Christi - ( see http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0 and download 1st pdf)
LATEST UK NEWS - WeatherAction in headlines
WeatherAction in Sun centre spread on Thursday 6 Aug & Front page of Sunday Times Sun 9 Aug:
Weather staff get 'accurate' bonus
The Sun - London,UK
Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business WeatherAction, said: "The Met Office forecasts for the last three summers have been completely ...
It's raining bonuses at the Met Office - Times Online
9 Aug 2009 Times Online ... It's raining bonuses at the Met Office ... Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business ... www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/.../article6788803.ece -
Also: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3838
It's raining bonuses over at the Met Office, despite a spate of ... -
Piers Corbyn, owner of the independent forecasting business WeatherAction, told the Sunday Times: 'Met Office forecasts for the last three summers have been ...SEE IN THIS ARTCLE: Met Office spokesman Helen Chivers said its targets were verified by the National Audit Office and did not only apply to forecast accuracy.
Read That again!!! ...Targets did not apply to forecast accuracy!!!!!
(Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205440/Its-raining-bonuses-Met-Office-despite-spate-inaccurate-predictions.html#ixzz0Nj1Z5JR5 )
Success rate of Weather Action Extreme events forecasts is running at about 85% . Audited reports of WeatherAction extreme events are available via www.weatheraction.com ‘Forecast Accuracy’ button
29th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 49
WeatherAction summer forecast success reported on BBCTV 29th July as floods & tornadoes confirm Piers Corbyn's forecast detail and Met Office admits failure
What Does & Does not Cause Climate Change' the latest WeatherAction Powerpoint presentation available via http://climaterealists.com/?id=3757 along with letter to Imperial College Research Strategy Principal Prof Sir Peter Knight.
23rd July 2009 WeatherAction News No 48
Met Office winter 'forecast' 2009-10 attacked as 'reckless misleading nonsense without scientific basis or skill'. "It should be ignored absolutely. The opposite to whatever the Met Office says in long range has been what happened for the last three years!"
19th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 46
Torrential rain, floods thunder & tornadoes 15 -18 July confirm WeatherAction long range Red Weather Warning and dash MetOffice 'barbecue summer' hopes. Corresponding Typhoon & Tropical storm forecasts also confirmed - Hong Kong suffering hit (19th July).
19th June 2009 WeatherAction News No 36 = http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=50&c=1
"World cooling has set in and it will stay colder for at least 100 years predicts scientist in forecast breakthrough
VIDEO: WeatherAction World Climate Forecast for next 100 years Filmed June 2009
8th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 45= http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=63&c=1
Reality will not go away! World leaders must put testable science before 'Climate Change' ideology and abandon the 'Green Bubble'
Biased BBC: Sunhats off= http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2009/07/sunhats-off.html
By ed thomas
But potentially even more significant than all this was Harrabin's extraordinary choice of critic for his Met Office piece - Piers Corbyn. What Harrabin doesn't tell his readers is that Corbyn, a solar physicist, is a trenchant critic ...
Biased BBC - http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/
piers corbyn | Flying Keywords
By moon rider
Pouring Cold Water Over Global WarmingPiers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com long range weather and climate forecasters? revealed a major breakthrough in climate forecasting and predicted general world cooling for the next 100 ...
Flying Keywords - http://flying.gomamiso.net/