Comments from Piers

The LongRange Forecasters Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR

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USA EPIC Snow Confirms WeatherAction - NEWS below

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Snowmageddon USA Nov 18,19,20,21,22.... including thundersnow, explicitly confirms WeatherAction USA LongRange forecast issued end Oct

The USA is now gripped in a record snow crisis the timing and key aspects of which were predicted by WeatherAction USA to within a day in the key NE USA region from 3 weeks ahead.

See For yourself! FREE NOW (from 22 Nov) WeatherActionUSA NOVEMBER

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/USA1411NOV30dSLAT10aSwitchesIssue30Oct.pdf

WeatherAction USA Front page Nov summary warned:

"…Extreme cold, snow, blizzards and travel chaos take-over most parts later "

The detailed forecast warned the calamity would start to hit seriously and get more dangerous in periods approx Nov 15-19th and 20-21st (+continuing...) and in NE USA in those periods include :

"thundersnow" and "heavy powdery drifting snow".

=> WOW Thundersnow Video!!  http://instagram.com/p/vm-fjwFfnV/

=> Pics ~20Nov Record Snow and snowdrifts Buffalo NY, Cheektofaga NY

Further pics: https://www.facebook.com/ReedTimmerTVN

DO SNOW BLASTS USA herald cold winter Britain & Europe?

Massive snow USA / Canada and EurAsia ALREADY looks ominous but that does not mean there will be wild Jet Stream waves (from Sudden stratospheric warmings which only WeatherAction can predict) which MIGHT bring it your way. You need WeatherAction forecast to find out.

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IS SOMETHING SPECIAL HAPPENING? Weather Action late November scenario now being confirmed as standard meteorology moves towards Piers' forecast ...

On 16 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: "Hats off to you Piers. Just watched the BBC Countryfile Weather for the week ahead and there's a strong High Pressure cell building to our NE which will both drag in E/SE'ly winds plus keep the slack Jet Stream at bay. Looks like a gradual cool down is on the cards, bang on cue and in alignment with your forecast."

News 14/13 Nov
Piers Corbyn interviewed by TruNews USA Radio
http://www.trunews.com/thursday-november-13-2014-raymond-ibrahim-piers-corbyn/
start at mid recording to find Piers' interview - near the second bracket...d]
TruNews is a widely listened station in USA with a notable following across the world

Go To http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No43.pdf for

Deluges & Floods UK & across world superbly confirm WeatherAction R4 period 22-25 Nov from 40d ahead.#CO2Con Warmists respond with floods of Lies

FORECAST TOP NEWS
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Piers Corbyn Says Met Office Winter Forecast is "Foolish babble from deluded charlatans and should be ignored absolutely".
"All the Met Office warnings of extreme winter or summer seasons since 2007 have been the oppsite to what took place - recall the 'BBQ'/fine summers which turned out as floods (2007, 2008, 2009, 2012) or the mild near-snow-free winters (in line with Co2 warmist catechism) for 2009-10 and 2010-11 which in reality had record cold and snow - and so the list goes on", said Piers at WeatherAction's London Bridge Office 12th Nov.
"The problem for the public is that because this cabal of charlatans (as far as long range forecasts go) are shovelled so much money from the public purse they feel a need to say something. In reality the public are being robbed to be misled and the recent abomniable announcment of £97Million on more Met Office super-computing means the public will be misled faster.
In terms of the actual MO forecast we must first be clear that whatever they say has no statstical merit or in their case they have a record of negative skill (whereas WeatherAction has a proven success record and got all the extremes listed above correct for example).

For this particular winter the "milder (at least till New Year)-wetter and windier than normal" prognosos has we would estimate only a 5% chance of being confirmed.

Weather Action is 95% confident that the MetO forecast will fail.
The winter extra money to NHS will not be enough. Govt reliance on #MetOffice misguided Co2-warmist-nonsense 'Forecasts' will cause more suffering and deaths which could be avoided if politicians had the guts to lance the boil of the #Co2Con .

One must ask is the Govt using MetOffice forecasts to advise on how much extra cash the NHS needs this winter, and if so WHY?

We wish we had the public funding to release our forecasts for free. We cannot do that, neverthless we are now releasing:- The whole winter package of all winter months forecasts for Britain + Ireland now and all updates of more detail as they are issued for only £90, a 55% reduction (see below).

The reasons why the Met Office long-range prognoses will continue to fail and the BBC will never have an honest informed scientific debate involving WeatherAction on the matter is:-

(i) They are tied to the CO2 warmist view of weather which can never accept solar activity drives it, so hey are unable to even consider what is needed to put forecasts right in medium and long range.

(ii) Their back-data and models are warped by CO2 warmism and data fraud and cannot cope with the wild Jet Stream behaviour now dominating world circulation and which will continue for two more decades as the world goes further ino 'Mini-Ice-Age' type circulation. The wild Jet Stream behaviour is understood and was predicted by WeatherAction but is completly 'out of the box' as far as standard meteorology and Co2 delusional warmism is concerned.

(iii) The BBC will suppress honest debate on the matter because they are wedded to CO2 warmism and support for the Govt and BigOil desire to have a high energy price economy which subsidises stupid money-wasting activity such as wind-farms.

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11220184/Met-Office-says-winter-will-be-wetter-and-windier-than-usual.html

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Europe this November had VERY DRAMATIC developments with circulation switches same time as USA.


Comments submitted - 320	Add your comment
On 09 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote: 9/12/2014 After a very chilly, frosty start in Chilterns this morning and a nondescript sort of a day. It has warmed up to 9 degrees, with a wind springing up and drizzle, which began around 6.00pm. Interested to see what tomorrow brings. On 07 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Just bought the December forecast, excuse my language, but holy shit! Irish subscribers north and south lets just hope for the best indeed!!!! On 07 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Fresher & bright start, 2˚C at 7.30, noticeably colder W wind, glorious sunshine all day, 3˚ max, down to 0˚ by 10pm. MO yellow snow warning tomorrow & Tuesday, excluding our coastal strip, also yellow wind warning fro Wed & Thurs. On 07 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Mixed bag here. Heavy frost on Friday night and into Sat morning. Clear and sunny day with a high of 10 degs. Started to get cold again early evening but then cloud and rain swept in. Mild start to Sunday but clear skies by 2pm and getting cold again now. On 07 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote: Hey ho! The met office severe weather forecast has changed dramatically in scope...... snow an ice warnings all the way down to the east midlands now. It would be laughable if it wasn't so serious. Piers you are a gem! On 07 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote: Some sleet just now here in Merthyr Tydfil Wales, live at about 150 metres, a bit higher up in the velleys it has had a short but heavy stint of snow fall at about 300m On 07 Dec 2014, Lee Barrett wrote: Hi there piers how are you? I must say excellent work yet again ur latest weather predictions are spot on and keep up this excellent work. The global warmists will be running scared yet again. :) our latest weather in Motherwell Scotland is very windy, cold, sleety. Thankyou for keeping the world up to date with the real truth. On 07 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: 10c now here in Dublin at 0:33 and drizzling On 06 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: The day started clear as a bell & lit by the full moon, 1˚C at 7.30, but by 9am the clouds started moving in and there was slight rain, temps remaind around 3˚ for most of the day but then it really warmed up to 7˚ by mid afternoon with a SW breeze, 5˚ at 10.30pm. Looking at one of our grass parks (as fields are called here) in the slanting afternoon light I noticed how many shiny blades of new growth there was, due to the mild autumn we've had. Heard from a friend today that the soil temperature has plummeted by 2˚C/day over the last few days and is now at 1.5˚, which is an unusually rapid decline. On 06 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: what HAS happened is that in last 24-36 hrs the models swung from flat westerly outlook to dramatic Atlantic amplification...literally overnight and are developing the pattern further.....keep watching to see what Piers is thinking, models will continue to develop towards that outlook. That is twice now this dramatic swing has occurred...it happened in late Nov too Piers said watch what happens when we get into top R periods.....hats off On 06 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Forecasts are all over the place for next week. Will it snow on the mountains or not? Even the two day forecast is uncertain. Plenty of models suggesting a huge storm developing in the Atlantic this week. The melt office will have some fun! On 06 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill wrote: Very chilly day in the Chilterns, my car was covered in frost virtually all day. 2 degrees throughout the day, out of the beautiful sunshine of course. On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: guess who finally woke up on sat evening....."Met Office warns of snow and ice for parts of UK" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30359194 On 06 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote: Regards your comments Justin.....science can be manipulated to give results to suit. I was trained by the Met Office and took daily weather readings for over 20 years. I can tell you that all the data is adjusted for accuracy before being fed into their computers. The max and min temps were always adjusted upwards.... I don't subscribe....yet, but I do take a keen interest in many weather websites including met office. All other weather sites need to take a close look at Piers and his team, because they are falling well short of what gets forecast here. On 06 Dec 2014, Paul ( winter subs) wrote: Saskia Steinhorst - THANK YOU - for that link to 'Rocket Stove' or 'Batch Rocket' as you called it. I haven't completed a translation ( yet ), It took a while for me to realise the appliance on Page 1 was the same as that on Page 2 ! Astonished ! I do hope I surmise correctly that the Dutch 'Batch Rocket' is conceptually similar to the USA 'Rocket Stove' - although the 'Batch Rocket' seems to have developed the idea in a different direction ( and far better ! ) - as a 'Range' appliance, whereas the 'Rocket Stove' seems to have gone the direction of a 'mass' heater. I wish you the best of luck with your 'Range' useage - but please be careful not to singe your eyebrows from that top loading access - as i suspect thar underneath is a prime zone for trapping part products of combustion that just need an sniff of fresh air to complete their combustion - just as you lift the lid. On 06 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Max temp 9 deg. high humidity and 1022 mb pressure Breezy wsw 23 kph approx. Feels cooler and although not frosty today the house has took more to heat, Some light drizzle on occasion.. This weather month is so exciting I'm having to run to catch up with Christmas prep as I've been so distracted!-) some great comms on here to digest.. On 06 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote: ALL BRILL COMMS THANKS! === Amazing stuff Bob, Craig, Russ ... Note all: A lot of what has been said is somewhat speculative so dont take it as THE answer especially in terms of cause-effect-association potential confusions. Further ideas need numbers in them to be properly tested. === CURRENT WEATHER AND Standard Met/MetO both sides Atlantic. Almost all comms have gone in apart from 2 which gave away or implied or concluded too much and some gone in are a bit on the edge. ALL NOTE we cannot assess WA forecasst by comparing with a standard Met Proj a few days (or even 1d) ahead because things are changing in their model view rapidly. See my comms above on some timings. What standard Met says 1d or 2d or 3d ahead is a indication yes but will change. Of more importance is how they have changed and then assume the same amount of change should be added to get a better approx to what will happen. ONLY WHAT HAS HAPPENED is valid for assessment. On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Josh- you can establish certainty for yourself for free-go through the archive and compare the forecasts with what actually happened over a year then see if it is statistically significant. Then compare that metric with the meto one over the same period. Then it would be rational to take note of that which has more significance. That is the scientific method. These days it is not enough to believe people just because they have letters after their name are well funded and have self appointed medals. On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: justin wrote -Warning to the wise...where there should be science but you only see HEADLINES and discount deals...don't bother because good science can sell itself- ...... would it not be wise and scientific to compare the forecasts with the actual over a good sample length of time and see the results? That would be science. That is what i did with WA forecasts and documented it on the blog. Maybe you should have done that before try to smear and suggest anyone who buys a sub is an idiot? You imply you are full of wisdom on the forecasts. If you had done any scientific work on them show it. On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: "good science can sell itself!" Not so. Royal society sat on the longitude clock for 50 years because egos were involved. They let many die at sea till the RN banged heads together. Rather let the 100m the uk gives to meto be put to open tender and the money goes to those who demonstrate skill in long range and not to the complacent and biased establishment resting on co2 mantras. For Meto and RS to accept anything WA does is correct means the dismantlement of the co2 gravy chain and the pricking of vanity bubbles of the self proclaimed experts who would have to admit that they lack skill and knowledge and have been misleading everyone with bogus averages and decontextualised charts from inter glacial warming periods. Over their dead bodies. On 06 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: very very interesting information Bob. Maybe some of that explains why the sun has been so very bright for a couple of days, today it was intense, warming the inside of the house to a high degree. It feels like the calm before the storm just now On 06 Dec 2014, Josh wrote: Have been thinking about subscribing for the last 2 weeks but as a 21 year old money is tight. But being from north kent can anybody advise me that subscribing for the whole winter would it be money well spent as a cold/snow fan???? On 06 Dec 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote: Well we are in that period now predicted to be warm by the met and blizzards by others, well met 10 days ago forecast gets a fat zero ,Piers at the moment only a five as yes its cooled down but i think only snow will be at higher levels i noticed Russ in chesterfield said there was flakes higher up ,but my friend who is high up in Ashbourne near by said it just rained ,we have had two nights of frost here but daytime temps of 7-8c typical december weather i do hope Piers gets it right but i think disruption to airports etc could be overdone sorry dont forget im a Piers fan/supporter. On 06 Dec 2014, Paul wrote: The met charts for the next four or five days aren't showing anything really cold turning up like widespread snow. No sign of any blocking highs. The weather is slowly becoming a bit colder but being more Atlantic driven. On 06 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote: Kp is an averaged geomagnetic response indice that includes magnetic field measurements from many recording stations. When Kp changes, its from a change in the electric-magnetic field(s). From http://www.spaceweather.com/ now at 11am EDT solar wind speed is 479.3 km/sec and its density is 15.9 protons/cm3. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_24h.gif are showing a major increase in Bz and Bt, the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Bt is now 24.8 nT and Bz is 18.0 nT north. If Bz were south right now, the terrestrial impact would be worse, as the coupling with earth is more efficient then, as those are BIG numbers! The fact that the solar wind density is pretty high near 16 at nearly 500 km/s in speed underscores the reality that the high Bt and Bz DERIVE from the superposition of each magnetic field contribution from each electron and proton within the higher density solar wind travelling with relatively high momentum (speed). On 06 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote: The light from higher energy solar flares such as the recent series of M-flares causes atmospheric ionization 8 minutes after the onset of the flare, moving at the speed of light. Due to the wave nature of matter, the X-ray energy is able to permeate atoms and molecules, and pop out an electron, ionizing the atom, or molecule, immediately setting off an electrodynamic event that involves parts of the atmosphere, inducing gravity waves, that can be seen in cloud formations. The sudden ionospheric disturbances caused by flares are measured by ham operators worldwide and geophysical scientists. They measure radio propagation changes caused by the sudden influx of electrons, which change the Earth's natural electric-magnetic field(s) until the charged particles reorganize electrodynamically, many times inducing vortex motion. On Piers' welcome page, see Dec 4 3-hour duration M6 followed by Kp=4 three hours later. The Sun was very bright here then, and even in 25F air, snow turned soft. On 06 Dec 2014, Alister wrote: Some great info there, filled in some gaps in my understanding. If I have understood correctly, the Earth is a rotating magnet, so as it passes through a variable, moving magnetic field in space, it is behaving just like an induction heater, with the heating effect varying according to field strength and polarity. On 06 Dec 2014, Justin wrote: Hi All, it seems to me that buying a forecast from anyone is laying down a bet. Some forecasters will even sell you a forecast for the purpose of laying down weather bets...hehehe cashing in on addiction!! Warning to the wise...where there should be science but you only see HEADLINES and discount deals...don't bother because good science can sell itself! It's about time the war over weather came to an end and as Russ said " Human progress can only be made by working together...with open minds!"" so come on you Scientists start working together for science and people instead of fame and greed!! Amen hehe On 06 Dec 2014, C View wrote: Piers. Glad you had a constructive visit to the Royal Thames yacht Club. As an occasional sailor myself I have often thiught if you could connect with this group it would further both weather action and it's climate standpoint.. Most yachtsmen would kill for a decent reliable long term forecast and the 'R' period information would be of particular value to them. Perhaps you could approach some other clubs, why not go for the top dogs at the Royal Yacht Squadronn or Royal Cruising Club?. Perhaps you could offer them a club subscription deal. On 06 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote: I would say that a lot of climatologists don't know a lot about climate either. With all their shrill claims of 'unprecedented' 'since records began' they should know better that just about everything is precedented if you study the climate records - which you would think comes with the job - and that most records are of a very short length. But if you have an ideology to promote then it is ignored and you are not really a scientist. Thick white frost this morning with blue sky and much cold. On 06 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: 4c at midday here just north of London. Frost still on our bathroom roof in the shade, patches of ice in the car parks of local supermarkets. Blue skies and crisps sunshine after a near full moon lit up the heavens last night. I love this time of year. The models are projecting a series of storms crossing the country next week with a particularly nasty one on Wednesday for northern areas with snow across Scotland, Ireland and Wales, then a secondary low smashes the life out of Wales and Southern England. If that tracks any further south (the full moon and solar flares may do the trick), we could be looking at a whiteout here in SE England by this time next week :-) On 06 Dec 2014, Not supplied wrote: The text below lifted from: http://www.mwis.org.uk/pdf/weather-forecasts/WH-MWI-WM10303_2014-12-05_121041_1730000.pdf 'High confidence in 10 days or more of generally westerly winds, giving long bouts of upland gales, sometimes storm force, particularly in Scotland. Precipitation, substantially of snow and hail, will be considerable on western mountains, particularly so the W & NW Scottish Highlands. Freezing levels frequently near 600m over the 7 to 10 days, with only brief periods of thaw on higher summits - and particularly in Scotland several days of uninterrupted freeze later next week.' Note the words: HIGH CONFIDENCE..... On 06 Dec 2014, Paul new 30 day sub wrote: Wow Everyone Many thanks to you all ,need to go away and ponder all your wonderful explications thank you Maria, Alistair, Craig, Russ and thank you for all link information , Russ I never knew that the CME could heat up the Lava in the earth’s mantle , Wow,that’s Great and exciting I just assumed that lava might somehow be affected by the moon , a bit like high tides and oceans being influenced by the moon , so I thought maybe molten lava is liquid , hence somehow tidal , Thank you everyone this is great . On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: One can say the cold part has been confirmed with -4.2 recorded as far south as farnborough. The achievement is not predicting it 36hrs ahead like meto but 36 days ahead like WA. Something the 'experts' say is impossible. How does the wizard of WA do it? On 06 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Russ-" vast majority of climateologists don't have a very good understanding of electrical engineering"..hardly surprising when you look at the course structure for climatology in the unis 50% of which is concerned with inventing polices for 'mitigation' rather than anything to do with climate or science. The term has been hijacked by political minded activists. A mask to hide what their subject is really about. The public with their worship of anything sounding like science will be none the wiser. One climatetologist told me they don't understand the models and it is farmed out to the physics labs because they 'get the maths'. So when people say 'you are not a climatologist' to try to install a curfew it shows they have no idea what that term means in the current context ie you can be just a green activist who specialised in 'mitigation'. On 06 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote: thanks russ that's very helpful, I like that explanation On 06 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: ...cont...or rather not continued as Russ sorta covered what I was going to say. All I'd add is to this bit "This voltage somehow forces the building storm to increase in power by causing it to twist faster." Do you mean this Rusz === Magnet Electrolysis Revisited: http://youtu.be/qZMlkW_Cc7A === first thing I thought of. // Felt warmer today with some clear sky in patches. Temps 7/2C DP 5/1C. Winds swung from NNE to W but very light. Many local weather stations just dropping near freezing. I suspect UHI there as we've had an air frost by 6pm & the ground is crunching underneath now (just after midnight) // Models aren't showing warmth. Some warm sectors mixed in but they are quickly flushed out by a bitter NW flow. The trend as Piers states on the front page is moving to WA. Not a done deal but more amplitude (meridional flow) is increasingly being show, all to do with the low on the East coast of the US. Change beckons. On 05 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: cont'd Page 4 I think............ You cannot have electric charge flowing, without there being an associated magnetic field. As soon as you move a magnetic field, you induce electric charge (current) to flow. The atmosphere and it's soggy mix of water vapour and other gases, has a fairly stable time, hence the rash of high pressure zones world-wide, but as soon as you rattle the earth's magnetic field, with a little dash of solar storm energy, the electric charges start to flow and create the earth's own storms. ..... Hope that helps! :^) PS: all of the above is highly controversial stuff as the vast majority of climateologists don't have a very good understanding of electrical engineering, pity really. Human progress can only be made by working together...with open minds! On 05 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: cont'd page 3........... then the rotating electric field causes the existing electric charge in the gas molecules making up the clouds and atmospheric gases in the storm, to rotate even faster. A bit like turning up a potentiometer and feeding more electric charge into an electric induction motor. As the flare hits, the voltage difference between ground and the upper atmos' increases greatly, this causes a release of excess charge in the form of lightning. That's just high energy electric charge which can't find a long term home, like a storm for instance. The CME can even cause (controversial), a rapid heating of lava in the earth's mantle and cause an increase seismic activity, both volcanic and earthquakes. Almost anything natural which twists: dust devils, tornado's, hurricanes, and low pressure storm systems, all have one thing in common. They are all caused by moving electric charge. Move a magnetic field and you cause electric charge to flow. cont'd On 05 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Rain overnight, the receding frontal clouds were still covering us by 7.30 when we had 3˚C, by 9am we were in sunshine, another great winter day with a keen NW wind. Temps never rose and by 4pm the frost was quietly returning, clear moonlit evening, 0˚ by 10pm. == Another nail-biting finish, will it, won't it snow? R5 on Sunday, MO showing sleet/snow only on Monday, a lot can still change quickly in the meantime. On 05 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: cont'd Page 2........ When a CME hits our atmosphere the magnetic field is again shaken but with the added bonus of all the magnetic energy that the gas particles and protons have. These are collected by our magnetic field and tend to be channelled into the earth's poles. All this magnetic energy again induced electric charge to flow but over a much longer time period, such that any large depression (low pressure zone), over a large expanse of water i.e. the Pacific Ocean, will be accellerated and increase in power. The excessive electric charge in the upper atmosphere increases the electrical potential (voltage), between the ground and the upper atmosphere. This voltage somehow forces the building storm to increase in power by causing it to twist faster. The same effect of voltage induced weather effects can be seen with both hurricanes and tornado's. The charge in an electric field will always flow rotating around a neutral centre, so if you imagine the storm being a spiral, cont'd On 05 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: To answer the questions about flares affecting the weather: An X classflare is simply a more powerful flare than an M class flare, with a higher ultraviolet and x-ray content, hence X - flare. Cme's (coronal mass-ejections), are not always created when these flares appear. There's an almost immediate effect which takes mere minutes to affect our upper atmosphere which is magnetic radiation. This travels along a magnetic rope which is often as wide as our planet, and shakes our magnetic field, in a similar way to the signal from an amplifier forcing a speaker coil back and forth. This vibrating of our magnetic field induces electric charge (often misnamed 'current'), to flow. But it's not very long lasting, so has little effect, but if there is a CME blasted in our direction, then this high temperature highly charged cloud of gas and high energy electrons and protons, will hit our atmosphere in, depending on it's speed, 3 to 5 days. cont'd On 05 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote: As we bask in the warmth of this hottest year evah evah evah, the northern hemisphere had over 22 million square kilometres - that's 8.5m sq miles in real money - of the white stuff Vine told us we would never see again in September, October and November. This is highest figure since 1976. North America set a snow coverage record for November and it was Canada's second highest. But the warmist Washington Post 'explained' how this was all due to global warming. As the excellent James Donald said at the end of Bridge On The River Kwai 'Madness! Madness!' A cracking full moon out over The Downs tonight and not a lot of warmth about. On 05 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Met Éireann forecast from Sunday has changed. Bitterly cold and rather blustery. Good spells of sunshine but scattered showers too - mainly affecting the western half of the country. Some of the showers will be wintry in nature, with snow on western and northern hills and possibly some sleet on lower levels here. A flurries or two is possibly on higher ground further east. Highest temperatures just 3 to 6 degrees Celsius, in a fairly fresh westerly breeze. Similar conditions persisting overnight. Cold with some frost as winds moderate, with some snow accumulation possible in the north overnight. After that its a return to milder conditions with heavy rain and flooding. What will it be....? On 05 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: "Severe gales with winds above 60mph will hit the North of England and Scotland at the beginning of the week sending temperatures plummeting and bringing blizzards. Blustery conditions and bitter weather will also hit the rest of England and Wales with snow falling as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor. " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11275806/Weather-warning-gale-force-winds-and-snow-to-batter-Britain.html ......lol On 05 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Paul/Alistair - it depends. I remember an x-flare earlier in the year that did diddly, surprising even NASA who expected far more geomagnetic instability. Conversely some tiddler flares have been far more potent (earth's magnetic field weakening?) Sometimes we only know afterwards. Not only does the polarity (negative/positive) of the flare matter so does the polarity of the earth itself. (Recent research suggests the alignment affects UK lightning). This is adding energy & forcing to earth's system. A connection that goes on & off. There is also solarwind speed/pressure & the particles ejected by the sun as variables. Watch coronal holes - spaceweather.com. or solen.info are good sites to monitor daily solar activity. I'd also say watch suspicious0bservers (Ben Davidson) on youtube for daily space/earth weather. He has a good educational playlist on the sun === http://ow.ly/FrdWW === hopefully I'll get time to complete a layman's FAQ/Guide section on the newsblog soon...cont... On 05 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Paul, an explanation of a solar flare. If you have a sub then you will be able to marry the flares with R periods and weather, if you haven`t a sub (only £12 btw) then you will be able to compare flares and weather after the weather event. .http://www.solarham.net/xray.htm On 05 Dec 2014, Alister wrote: I think they are just one variable, depends upon many other factors. In general, the flare itself may (or may not) influence the weather directly, but the associated strength and polarity of the magnetic field from the sun can suppress or exacerbate the prevailing conditions. I don't imagine that Mr Corbyn will let all of his secrets out. This is how he pays the rent and that's fine, you don't have to purchase his services. Assuming you are a UK taxpayer, a small quantity of that gets paid to the Met Office and you can't opt out. On 05 Dec 2014, Paul wrote: Question to the members as i am a newbie ,does the x flare or m flares effect the weather pattern that is over the uk at particular time , lets say of an x flare or m flares , does this make that particular weather pattern more extreme . or does it have the reverse effect and change to a different weather pattern , ie if it’s cold , and there a flare of a set magnitude X or M class, will it get very cold, generally speaking , or will the weather pattern turn to rain , i know its probably not that simple , but any general thoughts, would help . and will this flare speed up the jet stream ,or will this jet stream be more static over that particular location ie the uk ,so in the summer in uk ,weather pattern hot before flare , x flare , will it get hotter, or rain also what’s the relationship more or less as to how long that particular flare will affect the jet stream , days , weeks or does it take another flare to kick start the Jet stream hmmm and help in layman’s terms w On 05 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: seems everyone is talking about the snow. Even gav vids mentions significant snow followed by blizzards for the north in the next few days. If meto could have killed off WA with evidence they would have done it years ago. They can't. For Meto, royal society etc to dismiss SLAT with their usuall hoots of derision is a monumental mistake and a bombastic blunder that is costing the uk millions if not billions given how much they putting into flood defences now. Money that could be more intelligently used elsewhere. 2 weeks ago none of the experts were talking about any kind of snow anywhere in the uk and bigging up a warmer than average winter. On 05 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: First flakes of snow 2pm today Friday 5th at 300ft elevation in Chesterfield, plus some fine sleet. Second jet-stream pulse pushing down from Iceland, heading straight for the UK. This is bringing cloud with it, which will hit the edge of the high over Europe and push down over Scotland perhaps by late this evening or early Saturday morning. Don't forget to stock up on rock-salt for your drives and paths folks! On 05 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Currently (15:30 hrs) our area of Fryslân and Lauwersmeer nature preserve are the coldest in the country with act. temps of 3,3C and a windchill of just below freezing. I noticed a change in the wind this afternoon from the way our Taiwanese stove was behaving, and checking a nearby WS I can see the wind currently going through SSW to SSE, i.o.w. moving East from the WSW this morning. Barometer seems to be dropping. On 05 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote: Just for the less knowledgeable people like myself on here. What type of effect on the UK weather would you expect from a M-Class flare?. On 05 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Well it isn't as cold here today. It is 5.5 degs at the moment and dry. There was an hour of sunshine this morning between 9 and 10 am but it is cloudy again now. The wind direction changed overnight and is coming from the north west. I had a large supermarket delivery yesterday evening in anticipation of the worst - which may have been a little premature! As ever, will be interesting to see how the week unfolds. On 05 Dec 2014, Rob wrote: Who uses the user name Due South on Netweather? Surely its got to be someone from on here, if its not then they are either making a good observation re solar effects on our weather or they are on a wind-up. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/page-28 Maybe someone could help him out with the info he's asked for? On 05 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote: Just been another M-Class flare (around 12:30pm) All this solar activity after weeks of quiet..... I notice that Metcheck are discussing a major storm off the atlantic for around the 9th Dec. If that storm was to hit cold air over the UK I wonder what the result would be? hmmmmm On 05 Dec 2014, Ann (Wicklow) wrote: A few flakes falling here in East Wicklow. Altitude 700 ft asl. A sign of things to come? Going shopping now! On 05 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote: Someone reported a dusting of snow on Lugh na quilla Wicklow this morn. On Irish Weather Online fb .. On 05 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Max temp. Yesterday 4 deg. for a short time sky clearing and more frost, late evening some very light rain also for a short time I thought it was sleet at first! More frost this morning but not as hard and lovely clear blue sky & sunny earlier with some cloud moving in now @ 11.38 a.m and now 6 deg. On 05 Dec 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote: Just watched a news article on BBC about the £2B environmental Govt spend on sea defences etc after last years N.Sea surge Just waiting for the climate change words but they bit their tongue But wasnt the surge due to a 60 yr sun cycle so unlikely to occur again until 2073 If so no mention of that. On 05 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Brandon- keep a record of what the models say 30-100 days ahead and compare to what actually happens. Or even the 5 day which is based on the models. Anyone who does this little bit of science will quickly ignore what the models say. The uk is a very small area to predict for long range. Often the north american and europe long range have a higher success rate than uk long range. Having said that WA is still the best we got at this time even with ithis caveat. Even if the south avoids the snow getting a long range for half tyhe uk is not bad. I see meto are predicting wintry showers for derbyshire dales now. I also note meto will sometimes not forecast anything and hope people don't notice that they didn't but then big it up during/after the event like they did with the storms last winter that they didn't 'forecast' till the water was coming thro the letterboxes. On 05 Dec 2014, Paul Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote: No one saw this coming did they? well - almost - no one......"Brace yourselves for 8in of snow: Arctic blast set to sweep across Britain on Sunday night could bring travel chaos" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2860981/Britain-braced-snow-forecasters-issue-ice-warnings-temperatures-dipping-4C.html On 05 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Today was grey quickly turning to dreich! A day last week was more persistent. But what a wonderful word. It describes the relentless 'hottest like ever" dirge from the alarmists however I won't tarnish such a great word by ever using it in the context of the UN propaganda arm (aka the MSM). Dreich may be miserable but it's consequences are not quite as far reaching or malignant. Wet but never enough for a puddle & hardly noticeable at times but then you feel it on your skin- not like drizzle more like walking into an unsuspecting drop as it was busy minding its own business, verging on misty but never even that. I quite like it for a change as it could be lashing down but give me a few days of it a year & I could quickly change my mind sunshine is at a premium this time of year. Found some pronunciations spoken by ordinary people. === http://ow.ly/Foo1Z === Temps (max/min) 6/4 with dew points 5/1. Wind NE but light. Didn't feel as cold as yesterday but I've upped the layers On 05 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Subs - do not look at your area in isolation (why I like the Euro 30d product). Read/view every bit of each period & the one immediately before+afterwards = transition of one phase of weather to another (expected activity) as high/low pressure systems play out against each other. Pay particular attention to any uncertainties stated & the changes in R periods which power up/down. +/- 1d means add or subtract a day // Negative coronal hole impact due, strong M6 flare today (not clear still if cme), moon due to start descending in a few days heading south, solar flux & ssn on wane from recent peak of activity (see Bob's comms @Talkshop, linked below, also). // Massive, slow moving super typhoon Hagupit headed for the Philippines (again!) this weekend - into an active R period it does not look good. Thoughts and prayers with the people there. The sea is a blessing & a curse.=== http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/super-typhoon-hagupit-ruby-philippines-tacloban On 05 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote: Thanks Vicky the problem I'm having is we're im a snow fan and my work gets shut down the models are going for a warm trend this December with cold interceptions but no snow showing whatsoever if I knew snow is coming at whatever time during December I would get it but considering almost all headlines are saying northern England and Scotland unless I'm missing something but Southern england this year as far as models are is showing no early sign of any snow precipitation On 04 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: steff- what WA is doing is called by Meto 'impossible'. My reviews show a 60% or better match between forecast and actual [which is better skill than meto] however don't expect a guaranteed localised forecast as its more for 'mood music' of what is happening even tho sometimes its spot on . So currently is it colder? yes. Are wintry showers expected? Yes. But it might move to europe. However WA is still more accurate than Meto who cannot forecast more than 12 hrs ahead and sometimes not even then. Anyone who relies on meto is blind. With WA you get a bit more light but remember its a work in progress that has to work with many bearing false witness against the idea because they want co2 to drive events not the sun etc. So buying it is supporting real science that can help the uk and the world and lift it out the dark ages of co2 voodoo that can predict nothing. On 04 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote: Kerry Ireland a big earth facing solar flare just happened (region 2222) this may be having effect in few days? On 04 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Surprisingly it was 2˚C at 7.30 under a cloudy sky, but there were still white frosty bits everywhere sheltered, it was a curious mixture of damp/wet and frost. By afternoon the sun came out, temps rose to 4˚ but the pots we had recently planted with bulbs were all still frozen solid on the surface, 3˚ by 9pm. 18:00 weather map shows the Atlantic High connecting to the Greenland High, could be setting the stage for snow this weekend then? == Saskia, you started a good discussion re ranges; about 30 years ago the Franco Belge range of combined cookers/boilers was all the rage, I think they burnt mostly wood. As it would appear from the pdf you posted, the Belgians must have been pretty good at designing such appliances. == Richard Brown, that is a gem of information, though not surprising to regulars here I'm sure. On 04 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: Thanks gill1066, nice to know someone else talks to their pine cone! Hope its not too dismal down there on the farm, must be miserable when its wet and cold like this, i sell garage doors for a living , and standing outside today was not nice.!. Are you arable or do you keep cattle?, not much to do now if your arable, the land must be water logged. Seems no one knows whats going to happen with the weather, maybe the pine cones the best bet after all! On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Oh drat! Started raining while walking the dog, and the wind has shifted to the SE. Temps are slowly rising and, even though they predict some light snow for this evening and night, weather will be rainy and warmer tomorrow. I know I can't type a word while keeping my fingers crossed but nndbd bdw bwhbed wicked grin On 04 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Some very clear skies moved in this afternoon around three. No rain at all and temperature around 5 degrees. Frost setting after dark. Hopefully it might snow as it is so cold. Charts look interesting for Monday, melt office has no idea what it will bring, just guessing at the moment. On 04 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote: As a met office trained weather observer for over 20 years, I collected a daily readings for the MO. I can tell you that all data they get is "adjusted" for error. Usually the adjustments were upwards for the daily max and min. I find it very difficult to believe anything they say. On 04 Dec 2014, WENDY wrote: sub High Peak Derbyshire .I know many of you read IceAgeNow The headlines feature world wide extreme mini ice age conditions in so many countries.The countries are rarely if ever mentioned on the bbc or sky news!! Temperatures falling, 3.5 this morning at 11.30am . Global warming seems to dominate every weather related programme,IT DRIVES ME MAD!! On 04 Dec 2014, Stef wrote: Hi all, thinking about getting the winter forecast is it worth getting? Is it correct I usually rely on Met Office but I really need good accuracy for the coming weeks. A family member passed away last Christmas and we have something planned but that won't work if there is any snow the MO and others change daily I just NEED a reliable forecast. On 04 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Saskia your welcome, sounds great I know what you mean about draughts we have an old small Irish place and although we insulated as well as we could afford when renovating we have a little nice natural air still too! we were lucky to get the boiler we have for barter but my partner still loves the ranges, our French is not good we missed the other fuel types also until a second look, with a good flue like that it will be the finest, happy heating hope you get it all fired up soon :-) 2 deg. @ 14.41 pm fog lifting now but was awful to drive in still a few hours ago... On 04 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote: It's absolutely chucking in down with rain here in the south east.. So I don't know what's happening with the forecast.. Does anybody know what's going in lol. Seems to me it's more mild and raining then anything else lol.. On 04 Dec 2014, Ian wrote: Well BBC Met O has the winds switching round to the NW and then West overnight Thursday into Friday. And the Jetstream swinging westerly right across the UK. Time is nigh for your weather Piers! On 04 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: Just to add. View Sat24 Europe in infrared to see the loop pushing toward the UK more clearly. It is this which will bring much colder weather which should hit the warm, moist, high pressure zone right over the UK, round about this weekend. The line of the edge of the high pressure zone is moving ever more quickly toward us and should be overhead by the weekend.......Craig, yes, what a coronal hole that is! A real whopper. Google 'coronal hole chicken' for a good giggle. On 04 Dec 2014, shaun - Wales wrote: ... or a poem we wish to remember, repetition is the key, hence AGW is rammed down your throats at every opportunity, people can't remember the weather last week, never mind the last 18 years of no warming, people I talk to already have forgotten about the 4 or so bad winters the EU and UK have experienced since about 2008 because they have no reason to remember and it is not repeated to their senses, but AGW stick in their minds because it is everywhere, more ticks, more adders, holes in ground in Russia, wettest summer on record, drought, snow its all to do with AGW, polars bears homeless because AGW blah blah its everywhere but when the IPCC acceped the hiatus as they put it, it is hardly published in main stream media with the biggest reach and hence I have the continuing problem of meeting people who do not realise there has been a hiatus and don't even believe me when I tell them about it despite the IPCC admitting it, because the message was not repeated as much. On 04 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: ...and on that bombshell! Nice one Gill! ........ The CET triangle is nicely situated (sheltered), to avoid the cold from the north or the east coasts. As far as averages go, I don't believe they are of much use on a year to year basis, as rapid warming or cooling over short periods hardly make a dent in the final average. So a handful of cold snaps and a handful of hot days will basically even out over the year and show a stable average. When the Met Orifice tweak the figures slightly upward, then the average will go up, that's why they do the tweaking. If we are expected to be heading into ice age conditions over the next 20 years, whether mini or major, the rulers will keep schtum until the very last moment to avoid serious panic and chaos. This year I've travelled all over the country, the number of scorchio days can be counted on one hand. It 'has' been very dry but due to stable temps (not hot), drought has been avoided. Sat24 jetstream loop heading south today over UK!!! d:^) On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: [cont.] OT: Completely overcast (no sight of the KNMI forecasted sun) and just above freezing now with a windchill of nearly -4,5C. Here they predict warmer weather the coming few days as well, but the predicted temps of 10C on Tuesday from yesterday now have been scaled down to 7C. Interesting to watch, this might well still swing Piers' way ;-) On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: [cont.] - After having used wood for many years I can basically 'hear' the moisture content form the sound the wood makes when knocked together. The only problems with creosote build-up we currently have is because our insulated flue came down and we now just a simple single walled black pipe. We'll install a new pipe for the range with a diameter of 15cm across for the 2m inside (providing extra heat) and a transition to the 20cm diam. insulated pipe going through the ceiling, crawl space and then roof and outside. Draft should not be a problem, the range has an internal draft regulator. Yes, I am aware of many things (like gasification) you've said but it's always good to be reminded of things and hear someone else's view and solutions ;-) @Gill - LMAO!!!! Here in Fryslân we have a Weather Stone. When it's wet, it's raining, when it's dry its sunny, etc etc more. ;-) [cont.] On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: [cont.] - just clarifying things. However, this basically negates 'considering' what to buy and just go for the available option. That's it. ;-) @Paddy - Yeah, it's a beauty! The brochure actually tells you what fuel to use, I missed that before. Anthracite, and possibly briquettes. The fact that I always manage to get a thick layer of charcoal in the little Taiwanese - which ignites the wood as soon as it hits it - made me think whether I could do that in this range. BTW, the fire pot isn't stone as I thought, it's cast iron as well, and just about the same size as that in the Taiwanese. As soon as we can get a new flue we'll hook it up and see what gives. @Maria (Eire) - That's great info, thanks to both you and your partner! Sounds like my intention to use small timber for cooking and a mix of charcoal (produced by the wood)/coal/briquettes for just heating was thinking in the right direction. BTW, the timber I use, lengths of approx. 20-25cm and 2-5cm across, is bone dry. [cont.] On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: @Paul - I would (hypothetically speaking) kill to be able to get my hands on a Rayburn or any other AGA-styled range for that price! Over here it is completely impossible :-/ I do understand the problems regarding coals vs wood, and we did buy this range with a hidden agenda in mind. Here's what: http://www.ecologieforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3624&hilit=kolenfornuis The site is in Dutch but if you view the images on page 1 and 2 you'll get a fair idea. It's called a 'batch rocket' and basically runs on wood. As for being safe: we never fire our little Taiwanese potbelly woodstove without an open window. And the house we live in has so many cracks and openings, it is virtually impossible to asphyxiate ;-) Finally, to give you a clear picture: we be poor folk. And I don't mean poor in the sense of "Drat, I can't buy the latest version of that iPhone" but in the sense of eating a warm meal every other day because we can't afford to have one every day. Mind, I'm not complaining [cont.] On 04 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Stephen Parker - I asked the pine cone - it said 'Do I look like a ******* MO super duper multi-million pound computer? I replied you're about as effective as one. The pine cone then said ' look - hang me up outside - if you can see me moving -it's windy; if I am dripping water it's raining; if you can't see me - it's foggy; if I look white - it's snowing; If I am not there - some ** from the Mo has nicked me to try and find out how I am more accurate than they are! On 04 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: Models still rather underwhelming, I think this high pressure to our WSW is one of those stubborn cut off highs and any northerly is likely to remain a toppler for the immediate future. I think its going to take an extra bite or two of the cherry for the big scenario to come to fruition. On 04 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Back to the weather started at 1 deg. yesterday and today, lots of fog last night and still now @ 10 a.m with widespread frost air and ground, roads were icy this morn. feels bitter but looks pretty, max. temp 6 deg. yesterday looks only to reach 4 today! The cat went out overnight and has come back this morn. with an incredibly full belly so even he's stocking up ! Off out to get weeks shop with some essential extras if my budget will stretch.. as for news with the warmest year I switched off, too biased for me with only added evidence of the leaves still hanging on trees late, maybe lack of wind so far this season lol! pahh! On 04 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Also if you have a constant supply of free timber you would get more efficiency mileage in log gasification but initial set up costs expensive, equally you could look into waste wood burners. We can't afford that kind of set up and have a Kotlospaw boiler and that I think ( he's disappeared on me so don't quote me ) is Polish and is for coal but we use a mixture with timber, he cleans it often and has burned pallet wood and cardboard too and its very efficient though a little labour intensive, on average at mo 2 wheel barrows of logs a day for all heat and hot water, need to get some coal in now for keeping it in longer overnight but burns well, ours is situated in an enclosed outbuilding with chimney not far from house and the house is more toasty since leaving oil behind! have a small stove and fire indoors for days with no electric though rarely used now as the boiler more bang for our buck. hope this helps though prob. nothing you wasn't aware of already...;-) On 04 Dec 2014, chris allen wrote: @C View Always some good anti religious AGW facts here. It's been 18 yrs 2 months now of pause! When is a pause a trend? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/03/onward-marches-the-great-pause/ On 04 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Yesterday (Weds) was an odd one. The cloud from the east slipped back & forth overhead, so we had sunshine & showers with temps up & down a bit - but never actually too cold & no frost. It is grey, dank & cold this morning - Paddy had a good Scottish word to describe it - dreich, I think! It is currently only 3.5 degs & feels it too. Watched the BBC forecast this morning & it is now going for a much colder outlook for the week ahead. Snow showers over mountains & hills in Scotland from tomorrow, with much colder air moving over the rest of the country and then the possibility of more widespread snow on higher ground next week. Fascinating stuff! On 04 Dec 2014, linda wrote: I had a check online one site said there was a solar flare this morning around 8 am ....dont know if this is significant.. On 04 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Hey Saskia, lovely old fashioned range, My partner says it is specifically designed for coal usage but it would possibly be ok to use up to 30% timber no more than and mixed with coal, like Paddy said you would have to make sure moisture content was very low in timber and coal best overnight. He would also advise using a boiler wall and flue cleaner like Deville as will help break down tarring deposits keeping burn box + flue clean. Also a cheap moisture meter valuable when burning timber. A dedicated air intake to base of stove to stop unwanted air movement ( from outside source preferably ) You prob. know this but any flue over 4.5 meters with min. diameter of 6 inches internal should give you correct draught for flue, if flue is short you may need to use a Exhausto flue fan, a local boiler engineer could test draught of chimney ideally -12 pascals. Also a carbon monoxide detector is a good idea.. On 04 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: looks like I'l be eating humble pie this week-end. On 04 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote: Having read the "hottest year on record" garbage in your Daily Telegraph online and then having it repeated on our NZ TV news tonight, I would have to say that this is probably the worst example of warmist lies so far. They always accuse us of cherry picking yet that is exactly what they are doing with their carefully chosen data. If this is an example of what the warmist cult will do now that global cooling is so apparent, I dread to think what lies they'll come out with next. On 04 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: ECWMF and GFS models keen for persistent NWlies right up until big storm next week, then bouncing back and forth to SWlies. High Pressure teases us with potential to link up with Greenland High then weirdly crosses the UK and returns us to mild SWlies. Something doesn't feel right here. Piers, did we actually get a flare yesterday? On 04 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote: SSUPERB COMMS ALL! See twitter feed for more COMMS on BBC Biggest Climate Lie Campaign ever. I am just back from the honour of giving a presentation to The Royal Thames Yacht club followed by dinner. It was superbly enjoyable and very welcome to find so many people of stature who see through the lies being fed us all. On 04 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Far East Russia hit by blizzards. Also heard affected in NW Japan. Michael if you're reading your take is always welcome. === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/freak-russian-blizzard-mad-snow-storm-swallows-cars-streets-buildings-in-far-east/ = Been an echo chamber across the media today. Way it's going you'd think they recently produced a dodgy dossier & we're headed for a war with...climate?! Eh?! Reminds me of pretend fighting the fog as a youngster... So as it's silly season (ever notice they time this in the run up to xmas just in case you don't have enough on your mind)...be afraid..vewy vewy afwaid === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/screw-the-hottest-year-ever-have-you-seen-that-massive-coronal-hole/ === Cold crisp morning but no frost due to overnight cloud. Beautiful crisp bright winter afternoon followed which clouded over near dusk then rained. Now partly cloudy & quite cool. Temps 2/8 now 5C DP up & down between 2-5C. Lips cracking. On 04 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: Models going for wet and windy next week, with snow for the scottish hills, nothing to low level in central and south england, and cool but not cold. As far as models are concerned, after three days out you may as well consult your pine cone. On 04 Dec 2014, Richard Pinder wrote: A BBC article says that ‘meteorologists from the University of Reading believe there is a 75 percent chance the year will turn out to be the hottest since the record began in 1772’. The head of Meteorology at the University of Reading is the BBC’s favourite and as far as I can see, only Solar Astronomy expert, Professor Mike Lockwood, who was the charlatan who produced the fraudulent rebuttal of the Svensmark Theory, for CERN, to kept the CLOUD experiment results out of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. No wonder the Universities of Reading & East Anglia are more important to the BBC, than the Universities of Oxford & Cambridge, when it comes to Atmospheric Physics and Solar Astronomy. With Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London, the BBC only talks to Universities, pumped up by Charlatans, and then Censors everyone else. On 04 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: @Maria (Eire) - Thanks for that! On 03 Dec 2014, C View wrote: All this talk of warmest year ever seems hard to believe given that no global temp. rise has been evident for 18 years now Does anyone know if an uncorrupted dataset exists that would counter this argument? On 03 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Saskia: cracking range! If this thing has been designed for coal it will burn anything, including kindling & briquettes or anthracite, I haven't had time to read the pdf, I'm sure there will be relevant information buried in it. You won't get the same sustained heat from wood as form coal, of course, but if it's free & DRY (to avoid pitch deposits in the flue), use it anyway. But wait till you hear from Maria in Ireland, her partner may have more precise information than my rough & ready idea. We used to have a multifuel kitchen range in the previous farm, for real heat & keeping the fire in overnight, coal & derivatives is the thing. On 03 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: -1˚C at 7.30, ground really hard, I would say this is the first really hard frost for the whole of the calendar year, about 2cm deep in open ground in the garden. Brilliant sunny day though, actually broke a sweat while digging in the sunshine. Variable breeze from a WSW direction, frost setting in again by 4.30pm and now at 10pm just about -1˚ again. We got our sugarloaf chicory in the coldframe by Monday afternoon, literally with hours to spare before the hard frost set in during the night (it won't last if it's been frosted) - and all thanks to Pier's forecast. Although the cold came a couple of days later than predicted it dit come on cue. On 03 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: meto 5 day on bbc now has friday -1c and sunday as much colder with wintry showers 'possible'. On 03 Dec 2014, Julie wrote: Matt hugo is a jumped up little Charlatan IMO who knows nothing but model watching. If I remember right he said there would be no cold or wintry weather until the end of December. Erm check outside Matt and take them glasses off that make you look so cool, as it might unblinker youl. Great work Piers and hats off to you for all your hard work. The media are really pushing this warmest/cet year of late like you said. Are you still confident of snow for the period you said? can we still expect to see it south west of the M4 corridor? thanks as always On 03 Dec 2014, Asim (sub) wrote: Looks like being wet & stormy guys with rain and wind.. Only snow for Scotland and higher ground???? What's does everyone else say?? Btw it's currently 7oc here at heathrow not cold really. Been raining on and off all day. On 03 Dec 2014, Paul (winter subs) wrote: Saskia, excuse me for butting in , but thank you for the pdf link. Please strongly consider purchasing an appliance suitable for wood burning - as this is your fuel choice. Appliances dedicated for special coals ( which your appliance is ) are not suitable for wood, and are not suitable for just any coal ! For example : In the uk we have Aga's - which are for speciality coals - it would be frightening to attempt to burn wood in an Aga. The first effect to be noticed is a differculty in keeping it alight ( it would keep going out ), the next thing would be smoke escaping into the room space very early in the firing as the appliance internal flueways would be unable to handle the vastly greater flow rate of combustion products ( smoke ) from a wood fire compared to a coal fire. And lastly - tar production - agh ! I recently purchased an older Rayburn solid fuel range for £40 ( the scrap price ) - All it lacks is a chimney- at the moment ! Be SAFE get a smooke detector ! On 03 Dec 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote: There is a part of me that is an old fashioned girl- by that I mean it was always simpler and slightly more romantic in the past when it snowed. You never knew when it was coming and so it was always a surprise. When you were a child to wake up and discover that everything outside had been transformed overnight into a winter wonderland was just amazing. This , by contrast, all the watching and waiting and hoping etc, well it might mean I'm prepared, but yet, its driving me mad waiting, plus, despite all of Piers skill, it could still miss either us here in N ireland, or indeed the UK by a few hundred miles or less.! It could even be the 'wrong kind of snow', that horrible wet slush, gone by lunchtime stuff. fingers crossed. On 03 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: I am loving the PC explanations on the home page. Excellent pictorials and simple language. Very attractive and nice to read On 03 Dec 2014, istvan ilyes west sussex wrote: My last comm. was not published by WA. why, I do not know. it was not offensive.i just wish to say,that there now has been 10 months of above average temps. so the meto/bbc are now giving it all about their agw. as I am not a WA sub, I do not have the forecast for December. so all I would like to say is that I hope the currant trend of weather is the one that we can expect from WA. here in Crawley, its been 8c. with a NE. wind at 13mph, I am waiting for that big freeze to put some point on the weather. On 03 Dec 2014, Padraig SE Ireland wrote: Hi All, just watcted met eireann forecast (7pm),it seems we will be back to an "atlantic regime" from next monday 8th with stormy weather through next week, according to them the atlantic high will sink south to the azores and allow the jet stream to scream right over us hence the stormy weather forecast , will be interesting to see if the solar flare will weaken the jet and let the high move north instead, to allow winter arrive!! only time will tell On 03 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Latest Met Éireann forecast Thursday night will see rain soon spreading from the west to all areas for a time. However, the rain will clear later in the night with cloud breaking in many places, although showers will soon appear on northern and western coasts. Winds will veer northwesterly, moderate to fresh, overnight with some frost and icy patches possible around dawn. Showers, some of hail, will continue in the north and west during Friday but most other areas will be dry and bright, though cold. Friday night will then become mainly dry and clear, with frost and icy patches likely in many places. Saturday will start dry and sunny but rain arriving in the northwest and west by afternoon will sweep eastwards in the second half of the day, accompanied by strengthening southwest to west winds. The rain will clear early on Saturday night but westerly winds will become even stronger, and wintry showers will soon spread from the Atlantic. As well as hail, some sleet or snow showers On 03 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: re warmest year ever...well the official temperature site was removed from Redhill because it was 'too cold' as it was a frost hollow. Its now in Gatwick.....by the 'accurate' Gatwick airport effect... On 03 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: Michael Look a the homepage of this site, Piers has placed a 'visual' of it. We approach R4 period too so I suspect there'll be some very immediate model changes.....the late Nov change was literally 'overnight' On 03 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Today has been the coldest day of the year! Temps did not rise above freezing point, something which had been predicted for tomorrow. Last winter most parts of the country did not have these so-called 'ice days' although we did. Still, forecast is for the wind to shift S and 10C on Tuesday. Somehow I doubt that ... On 03 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: Michael Spaceweatherlive.com is a good site for following sun auroras and flares etc. On 03 Dec 2014, Lorraine wrote: Lorraine/GCI could not resist the December forecast it all got to much for me so it was £12 well sent. A very interesting December indeed especially with family and friends getting to their destinations 🎅 On 03 Dec 2014, east side wrote: "Models are all showing 'severe' weather approaching within the 5-8 period. We are generally under NW/SE pattern in early dec and getting colder as Piers forecast." NO. The peak of this early cold patch is over. It's going to warm up now until christmas - only some snow over the alps/Scotland next weekend, then lots more cold rain. On 03 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: keep the faith https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/page-16, big smiley face On 03 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Saskia will load up link soon on laptop and my partner said he will have a look at it, he said you should be able to burn wood but he will have a look first, he did say more than 15% wood I think could cause tarring so ideally a mix with coal and more efficient mixed, will ask him more later when he's had a read ;) On 03 Dec 2014, KAZ wrote: Has anyone been on www.skepticalscience.com ? I only had a brief read through a few things, however (claiming to be neutral) it seems incredibly biased towards global warming and It says that it is funded entirely by donations. I wonder who would come up if the list of donors was published .... On 03 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: michael-nothing that gives advance notice of subscription only info will be posted. On 03 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: all the media are now giving the 'warmest ever year' the hollywood treatment as they try to bolt on their crazy policies to 'save the earth'. They getting all excited about 1 year when the previous 18 showed no warming. I can't believe this headless chicken hysteria. its like mob rule of the swivel eyed. On 03 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote: Hi piers are we still on track for next?? As here it's raining and nothing else lol. Here in the south east.. I know it says up north and Scotland for fun & games next week. But mild down in south east?? Please could you let us know if we are on track for next week or not. Thanks On 03 Dec 2014, Michael wrote: Hello Fred, You refer to the solar hit and Piers updating.When is the so;ar hit due please? On 03 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote: Please see http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/gerry-pease-its-all-downhill-now-for-solar-cycle-24/comment-page-1/#comment-94093 Full moon on Dec 6. Lunar north node on Dec 7. On 03 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: Hi Richard They need to shift somewhat, yes plenty of time for it to happen but some circulations do set up and hold hence why SLAT improvements occur. Like I say, the change occurred late Nov, and could occur again, but its getting tight. I think we won't get a report from Piers until after the effects of the solar 'hit' occurs and where it takes us and quite right because we need to see the effects first. We do need a shift though from the main trough holding NW. On 03 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: More warmist propaganda http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30304611 On 03 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Forecast now is for the first 'ice day' of the season tomorrow, specifically in our region, where temps will not rise above freezing all day. Add to that an expected wind of approx. 6BF and walking the dog suddenly becomes a whole lot less fun :-/ BTW, corresponds nicely with Piers' forecast ;-) @Paddy & Maria: I think I forgot to add the link to the PDF, I apologize. http://www.ultimheat.com/Museum/section2/1939%20NESTOR%20MARTIN%20cuisiniere%2020121127.pdf My stove is nearly the same as the one on page 14 and 15. On 03 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote: There has been a noticeable chill in the air here in Hull, East Yorkshire, during the last couple of days and it certainly has a different feel to it, I believe it could be an indication of what is to come. However, Matt Hugo says that those people hoping for a SSW within the next week or two with a complete breakdown of the PV by mid to late December may be disappointed, I'm not really sure how he come to that conclusion, though been no expert my self of course on such matters. What does anyone else think to this particular opinion . On 03 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: fred- from my monitoring the 5 day forecast which is based and automated on the models without any human intervention can change 12hrs before with different weather. They are rarely right even 48hrs ahead On 03 Dec 2014, Stephen Parker wrote: Models certainly do change, they do it day to day, run to run and anything past three days is wishful thinking..but a heads up from piersif its going to be very different would be apppreciated by this subscriber. On 03 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Current windchill for our country, this morning it was actually -10C. http://www.weerplaza.nl/actueel/gevoelstemperatuur/ I'm situated at the top near the -4,6 mark. @Paddy & Maria: this thing is a huge enameled cast-iron stove with 3 cooking rings beneath the top grate, 2 ovens and 2 warming ovens. It has a top-fed (underneath middle ring) stone fire 'pit' for loading coal. Here's a PDF (French & unable to shorten link, sorry) which has a 1939 version (p14), we have a 1940v which does not have the 'tempering' function plates and their corresponding knobs shown on page 15. I've never used a coal fed stove and a/ wonder if I can burn small kindling in it (although charcoal does not provide the same heat energy, but we get the wood for free) and b/ wonder if this thing will handle so-called briquettes to keep it going during the night. All in all I'm just not used to coal ranges and am trying to figure out how to use them. Any info will be greatly appreciated! ;-) On 03 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: Models are all showing 'severe' weather approaching within the 5-8 period. We are generally under NW/SE pattern in early dec and getting colder as Piers forecast. However, this 'severe' spell is too far NW and W and brings colder air but not deep cold and the severe factor is the wind side. Now has Slat 11incorrectly shifted things too far south? Can models be that wrong at short notice and turnaround in such a short time? Not long to wait now, 2-3 days? All I can say is I posed similar question to Piers late November when Models were showing westerly flow, and 2 days later they changed as the block tot he NE held firm. On 03 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: As i understand it it is the solar impact coming up that is the basis for the week- end forecast, so i wouldn't expect the models to be reflecting it, however it would i feel be helpful to subscribers to know if the forecast is still on track. On 03 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: There is a storm forecast for next Monday though on a south westerly according to Met Eireann, I wonder if this will turn into something more nasty? Sleet and snow now being mentioned for Saturday night. On 03 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: As predicted BBC bigging up the 'warmest year on record' to sell their co2 hallucinations. Not one word in the report about usa or antartica with only 'hottest' examples given with harrabin giving the 'expert' comment on it all so one doesn't even have to read it to know what it says.. One would think there were no records of the roman or minoan warm periods they way they write nor that temps can go up 4c and still be in normal parameters for an interglacial warming period. Also nothing about melting glaciers revealing forests and settlements nor any explanation of how they 'got under the ice ie it must have been warmer before'. Muppets. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30304611 On 03 Dec 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote: 30 day forecast for December reminds me of my final year at school back in the day., at least in terms of the precipitation patterns and timing within the winter. Only difference is that the magnetic sunspot cycle is in the other polarity this time around. But should be at a similar position within the cycle in terms of years from start...... AS for the Christmas forecast, that little bit reminds me of a new year we spent at the Glasgow Uni mountaineering club hut around 25 years ago. They've happened before and no doubt they'll happen again....... On 03 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: If the models verify then the 5th-8th part of the forecast looks threatened. ECWMF has a real doozy of a winter storm hitting the UK next Tuesday though with snow even to lower levels across all but SE England... :-( On 03 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: Hi Piers and team, it would be useful to know if the forecast is on track for the next week or so. Thanks steve On 03 Dec 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote: Have a look at the Canadian Gem MSLP Ensemble on Weatherweb for 9th December Brrrrrrrrr...... On 03 Dec 2014, Linda'(wales) wrote: Have to agree with Shaun and others ill have to give up Netweather...........so annoying all the moaning and not knowing very much......going to stock up with food etc feels like -7 here now...............we are 1350 ft asl ........ On 02 Dec 2014, east side wrote: We have very cold weather out in the east, some weeks early and snow as early as september. This morning was an early start flight in Ural at 5am at -24C, with a wind that makes you wake up. Further north-west, it's also very cold, with the humidity from the Baltic, making it bitter cold in a westerly wind. Better watch out, the cold is spreading steadily but surely out over the whole of the continent and as often has happened in the past, can be here to stay for weeks down to -15- - 20C when it finally gets installed. On 02 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Definite change now, 1˚C at 7.30, frost on car roof and on grass in sheltered spots, noticeably colder in NW breeze, clear sky apart from a few clouds over the sea, brilliant sunshine all day, max temp 4˚, 1˚ at 9pm, frost on car - bracing stuff. Moonlit night, clear sky, such a relief after all the murk. == Saskia: what is the problem with your range? On 02 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Hi Shaun (Wales). I used to follow the roller coaster world of the Netweather forums. Sadly it's a mostly trollish and fickle crowd which blindly follows the models to no avail. Hallelujah for Piers and WeatherAction! On 02 Dec 2014, Mark (Bolton) wrote: Temps dropping away very quickly, sensing a real turn in the weather now, really starting to feel like winter is on our doorstep....waiting with anticipation for Piers to sock it to the MO On 02 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Saskia that made me chuckle :)) what's the stove at? On 02 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Cold blue sky sunny day max temp 6 deg. 3 now @ 19.16 pm feels colder more like -1, before the logs turned up an hour or so ago the leaves were already freezing underfoot, stacking logs in the cold good for the soul! On 02 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: I got the December forecast. Lost for words. I'll keep my fingers crossed that this is correct, because this would not just make the KNMI eat its words, they would be shovel-fed! Now, anybody on here who has experience with old-fashioned coal ranges? Because I really need to be able to handle this monster a.s.a.p. - OT: light drizzle of rain today, bitterly cold E wind. I put up a little birdhouse with so-called 'bird peanut butter' and now am visited by Great Tits (WHO THOUGHT OF THIS NAME?! "Oh look, great tits ..." I mean, c'mon!) Robbins, Blackbirds, Eurasian Collared Doves and of course Sparrows. I love seeing them flit about, taking turns at the jar. We got an ample supply of bird feed, at least they'll want for nothing. On 02 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote: Cheers Shaun for your in lengthy but very informative and interesting reply regarding Net weather and its roller coasting members. I think I may actually give up looking at their site as I'm sure there are less stressful ways to pass my time. lol On 02 Dec 2014, Vicky wrote: Brandon, I live in Southampton and have just bought December's forecast. I would definitely recommend buying it. On 02 Dec 2014, Linda wrote: Freezing cold wind here cut you like a knife......must 3 or less with wind chill ........... On 02 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: Melt Office still going with cool wet n windy for the whole of December with just a couple of mentions of snow on high ground. Over the past few years, Piers has given me far more big grins than 'Dusty Bins' >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-2-1#Dusty_Bin << I'll stick with Piers...... Clear blue skies today but combined with rapidly falling temperatures. Looks like being a hard frost tonight....the countdown hath beguneth! On 02 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote: but another common programming flaw is what they call logical errors instead of a syntax error. A Syntax error can cause the simulation to halt before completing its task as it gets stuck at the syntax error, the logical errors can be much harder to spot and figure out because it will provide a result, sometimes the result will by chance, seem near the expected outcome and again can by chance or accidental bias in the code get near the expected result over many runs so go unnoticed. This is the problem for many organisations where the coding is done my a computer person and not the weather person, because he programs with limited knowledge in the subject matter so wont notice a weather based error in the calculations etc and just trusts the scientists input. Or the other issue is just a bad programmer, who thinks has has achieved the wanted result which can be masked by close enough results that it goes unnoticed. I do wonder how good their programming is. On 02 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote: and often more than once a day and still get it wrong, I've had days when they have updated it on the day and still get it wrong on that day. I love folllowing the weather, but mainly as someone who frequently runs 50 miles plus a week over mountains I like to know what to wear. Anyway, Netweather! it shows many of them are just model watchers and that is as far as their knowledge goes hence their mood chops and changes. Where as a genuine forecaster would know the weather just as well as the models, better in fact, because at the end of the day a model is just a line of commands that it executes and will only execute commands that have been given to it so the the programming is limited by the knowledge of the programmer or their advisor and a forecaster. computers only out smart us in how fast it calculates from the information given, but those behind the models know as much as the models but can involve any other info they feel relevant where the model isnt that flexible On 02 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote: It was bitter here, although it was about 6 degrees according to the BBC, the wind made it feel as cold as our first frost a few day ago when it was about -1 @Alistair, I couldn't agree more, I gave up following the Netweather crowd although they sometimes provide indepth and logical forecasts the majority of their users swing to and thro with the models having not yet realised this issue in the models. As Piers have said, because the models only do what they are programmed to ad can not understand or learn anything that has not been programmed into its simulations they have a tendency to pick up a trend and then lose it ad pick it up and lose it and thus the mood on their forums yoyo with it or as they like t say it is a rollercoaster, while naming it a rollercoaster for the highs and lows in moods, still not realising how poor the models are at pinning down a forecast accurately more than a day ahead, hence the BBC and the MO change their so called week ahead forecasts every day. On 02 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Dutch KNMI predicts mild weather and temps above freezing, especially for our area and as of this weekend. Not sure what to expect and we have some trouble getting the old Iron Monster hooked up, but at least our faithful little Taiwanese is putting out some extra heat. On 02 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Just put a load of heating oil into the tank and all the shopping done! Precautions taken so the weather can do whatever the hell it likes now. Clear skies all day and getting cold now the sun has gone down! On 02 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: >> http://bit.ly/1rSretQ << -flare -storm - flare - storm - flare - storm ... hehehehe! On 02 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. After a very still end of day yesterday and even first thing this morning an unpleasant northerly breeze has picked up. Although it is apparently 7 degs, it feels cooler and raw. It is grey and overcast but the fine misty rain that was falling first thing has been blown away. On 02 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: I am fully prepared too Sue and am stocked for a good few weeks, including chocolate. Car is full of fuel and winter kits in place.. Shelves get swept in minutes when people panic buy. The sub has been so worth while and not just for this winter. I have a corded plug in phone too and also alternative cooking, cobb cooker, kelly kettle etc. On 02 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Worth a look at Irish Weather Online Fb page too, they too have changed their outlook!-) haha Sue I like the T-bags part I got them in yesterday was like no.1 on my list :D On 02 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote: I have been reading some of the comments on the net weather model forum just lately and they seem to change their minds every hour. I appreciate that many are simply doing it as a pastime but their reliance on the models for their long term forecasts does frustrate me sometimes. Some are even forecasting a zonal December which as I understand, is the opposite to what Piers and one or two others are saying. On 02 Dec 2014, Fred wrote: Difficult to comment without giving too much away. Chart Piers posted overall pattern matches his synoptic set up. So does the T96 chart from the UKMO model for 6th https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/metoimages/20141202/00/metslp.96.png Piers, are you expecting more amplification after the solar hit on 3rd? On 02 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: 2 deg. @ 8.21 a.m feels colder frost and ice about, did not want to get out of bed!-) On 02 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: Good advice Maria (Ire) will be taking a trip out myself after work this afternoon to stock up on handy items...have gathered the usual over time and stored them up-batteries candles a cored telephone phone as cordless handset useless if power out. Recharged my torches. 80 year old dads medications all sorted just to be sure and his house winter ready. Non perishable goods ready...dogs dry food in and most important tea bags! So I'm satisfied I'm prepared...and if it's not that severe items are stored for next warning, so preparation never a waste. All hatches battened down so to speak ; ) This is why buying Piers forecast is so handy...Forewarned is forearmed. On 02 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: 8 am. NW wind 9 mph, pink sky to the east, luminous. Temp 8 degrees, pressure rising 1022. The weather is changing. Woke up with a small headache, I never get headaches. Tv is pixelating. Paddy ty re dr jw. I have used rock dust in my veg soil for 4 years, so def agree with lack of minerals being a causation. I don`t suffer from damp weather but lots do On 02 Dec 2014, Julie wrote: Ha ha ha ha. Netweather was virtually laughing and being arrogant about the recent media articles yesterday about snow this week! I've just seen the netweather snow charts on the exacta facebook page for later this week that was posted this morn from overnight models. Netweather said snow only high grounds in scotland this week lol. things are changing big time. piers you say 5th-8th from quite far ahead and exacta say 4th-7th from their snow report that they issued last month. How can it be that you both make such predictions time and time again, yet the beeb/met/netweather/models don't see it until a few days before? On 02 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Morning all! GFS and EWCMF models show High pressure to our west teasingly threatening to link up with the Greenland High which would give us a beauty of an omega block. With the solar flare due to hit our atmosphere tomorrow, until then the models think we're having strong NW'ly polar maritime winds for the next week. Something has to give... On 02 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote: NZ is now officially in summer and NIWA are predicting an average summer http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/63758653/Average-summer-expected. Sounds very much like your Met Office predictions - hedge your bets carefully so there's no comeback. Spring was a depressingly difficult growing season this year and the second greenhouse that we put up is paying for itself very quickly. On 02 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote: Just out of curiosity I just want to know is it worth getting a forecast from someone who lives in southern England in the HAMPSHIRE area?! On 02 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Thanks for the feedback everyone. I think without breathing a word it would be to take each day as it comes and prepare in case! Latest far reaching Melt Office predictions show a cold northerly flow developing and possibly very cold conditions. We shall see....... Met Éireann forecast is all over the place, they are saying mild one minute then cold the next. Whatever Piers has predicted I hope it is true! On 01 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Ps Like Ann I too would share forecast with Ruairi. It would be good to have some more areas covered here for the upcoming winter as can differ quite a lot from county to county.. On 01 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: 5˚C at 7.30, no frost after last night's clear sky. The whole day was relatively mild for December, 7˚ max, without rain until about 4pm, very overcast & dark again after yesterday's brilliant sunshine and again a SE'ly regime. So mild I had to take my jacket of while digging chicory roots in the garden. 4˚ by 10pm & feeling much fresher in the NW wind - shape of things to come it would seem. MO certainly says much cooler tomorrow but sunny. == Maria S: re arthritis, look up Dr Joel Wallach under that heading, one need not suffer. On 01 Dec 2014, Ann (Wicklow) wrote: Ruairi.....if Piers says it is ok I will happily share my forecast with you. Could be important..... I can rarely manage to purchase but am glad I did this time. On 01 Dec 2014, paul ( uk winter subscriber) wrote: Autumn rain guage emptied today ( southest worcestershire ) 320 mm. And I thought Evesham was 'good' at avoiding the worst excesses of inclement weather. On 01 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Max temp 8/9 deg. some drizzle on and off all day, 7deg. now @ 8 pm but feels like 3 or 4 with the cold N wind only about 27kph but feels parky, black ice possible overnight.. Ruairi sound advice from Maria Somerset, it wouldn't hurt to be preparing for the worst and if not needed would get used over the winter anyway, my cuboards virtually empty all summer then with a small budget get what I can for every winter to save a lot of hassle whatever the weather, but then living in the country it has to be done.. On 01 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Ruari, I am not from Ireland but without giving anything away, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. There are plenty of clues here and in weatheraction wordpress, enough for you to take action without being aware of specific dates. My netatmo anemometer is swinging between nw/ne and now east. Wind has picked up a touch to 2 mph. The larger wind vane has shifted a bit from firmly east to east north east. Feels horribly chilly at 8 degrees and dank, bad for arthritis sufferers.I bought several more bags of fuel pellets today, am very glad that the farmers store nearby is stocking them at a fair price. The weather feels ominous, like the calm before a storm. On 01 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Met Éireann forecast changed their forecast in a matter of hours from mild at the end of the week to very cold with possible hill snow. Sadly I will be unable to purchase the all important forecast. Could any subscribers in Ireland (north and south) maybe use just one word apart from wow to maybe shed some light. You don't have to be a genius to work out something bad is on the cards! On 01 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote: In response to Alistair's question - the key word he used was 'models'. Given the admission from the MetO that they have no skill if the jet stream is not meridional and the great 'success' in the models predicting Antarctic ice extent, an ice free arctic summer and rising global temps there is a better than average chance what is saying won't happen. You also need to find out which side of the fence he is on - a warmist would love to make all the feet of horrible snow disappear from North America. Uniform dull and grey in London today as it was on The Downs yesterday. Saturday was a nice interlude as I was exploring a 5 acre wood at a potential property. Did get a butane cylinder refilled on the way in readiness. On 01 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Firstly, WOW to the December forecast. I am dreading it slightly, as I have so much to do this month. Obs from East Berks. Sunday was interesting. Wind changed around to the North for a while. It meant that the in the sheltered south facing bit of my garden, it was very warm again in the sunshine. However, top temp in the shade was only 12 degs and as the day wore on & there was more cloud cover, it felt cool. Overnight low of 5 degs and currently 7 degs. Wind has gone back to coming from an easterly direction again. On 01 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Dull overcast 7 deg. @ 9.38 a.m and totally still.. The last couple of weeks I've noticed day time temps. go very slightly up and down up n down all day like a roller coaster on the not so cold days. Yes Sue I've seen them nudge daily too and even the couple of other Irish weather sites that wouldn't publish links to the DE articles are also edging around too funny enough!-) On 01 Dec 2014, steven wright wrote: watching countryfile weather for the week ahead towards the end peter gibbs (who that i have nothing against him) said we are in for a short sharp cold snap reminded me of 1987 with a certain person called michael fish just goes to show if weatheraction 30 day forecast is right which im sure it will be that there supercomputer is a waste of time On 01 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: Daily model update Day 9. 00z GFS model keen to bring back westerlies by the weekend. ECWMF shows a polar low plunging down the North Sea on Weds 10th. I have some confidence in the latter solution, but a lot more faith in Piers of course! :-) On 01 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: The stage is set Piers big turn around in Met Eireann forecast for this week-It would be a huge success for our community if this comes off. On 01 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: 1,500 without power and 5 dead as record flooding hits southern France according to the Metro newspaper today. On 30 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote: 192 mm of rain for November well in line with Piers prediction. That gives us a running total since 1st of Jan of 1790mm or 70.5 inches which is at least 20 inches more than our annual rainfall of 48inchs we are only 250 ft above sea level here and 2 mile from the Welsh mountains. It will be interesting to see how bad it gets in December, I have got plenty of cattle feed and salt in stock just in case! On 30 Nov 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote: Just got the Dec forecast Hope it comes off on Q If so I will be Ramming it down a few throats On 30 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Maria Somerset, first thing I also noticed this morning was the change of wind direction to the WNW, a good sign, followed after 9am by sunshine courtesy of the high pressure ridge. 8˚C by 7.30, still feeling mild, but gradually falling to 2˚ by 10pm. Cloudy from time to time but a lovely day altogether, on our morning walk in the sun it must have been around 12˚. MO now also showing falling temps in the coming week; although this is happening somewhat later than Piers predicted (he does say +/- 1 day) his forecast is nevertheless on the nail. == Maria S: regarding air inlet for stove: we live in such a draughty old typical Scottish farmhouse with insulation only in the roof space that this is no concern, in fact, we may be at the root of all this global warming that is (NOT) happening, what with all the cracks through which we let out heat :-) On 30 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Meto will be bigging up that this year is for the uk the warmest on modern record [even tho data for previous much warmer periods exist] while omitting that the modern hadley cet data has nothing in common with the old cet data except the name but they still bolt them together like some Frankenstein to make creepy averages out of it. Meanwhile usa has coldest year and antartic ice is at record maximum but they will minimise that information to present a funfair wonky mirror image of the facts. On 30 Nov 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote: Evening all its looking like christmas everywhere now ,with towns all around having parades etc, Countryfile forecast was interesting tonight as bbc/met have changed their tune again,thurs night the 10 day forecast said nothing cold ahead just mildish dull benign weather ,tonight they have changed to oooh next weekend it could turn colder !really! well stick a pin in and eventually its right!!, It has been dull for three days here now temps 8-9c just feels like the weather is waiting to change ,cue Piers,s forecast !! On 30 Nov 2014, Alistair Maclaren wrote: Hi, I'm no weather expert but I was reading some comments from a Scientist called Judah Cohen and he said .... "models are predicting that the polar low will redevelop further west. I am watching this development very closely. If the low deepens in the location as the models predict and remains persistent that would destructively interfere with triggering further WAFz and weakening of the polar vortex, something more common with LOW SNOW COVER extent". My question to the experts on here is....In laymen's terms, what does this actually mean and is it likely to effect this winters predicted outcome, especially regarding the amount of snowfall in the UK?. On 30 Nov 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote: Just received my sub. just have time to get things in order, I do some charity work for some dog rescues here in Republic so great to have weather information before heading out on roads transporting rescues to foster homes, 19th-22nd forecast especially helpful in advance. I cannot emphasise the importance of this forecast enough. On 30 Nov 2014, @piers_corbyn WA forecaster wrote: GREAT COMMS ALL! Exciting times! A couple of COMMS gave away too much so direct responses instead. Sorry about that but best way at present. Thanks On 30 Nov 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote: Anyone got an explanation for these loud bangs that the newspapers were claiming were all over the place last night? My kids heard it and thought they were fireworks. On 30 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Blooming Hell! Just seen December (Thanks Piers for releasing during the day). All I can says is - if only one bit comes in on cue..... I will still be astonished. Oh .... and just found out we have got 15 days of major roadworks from the 8th till the 23rd down the road from us. What a brilliant combination... Roadworks and the WA forecast!!!! On 30 Nov 2014, s wrote: just seen my 30 day forecast, and if it broadly turns out as forecast, Mr Corbyn will have made his reputation, and the met office will have eat **. Mr Corbyn will no doubt issue a public warning, and there will be no complaints from this subscriber. On 30 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: A little foggy to start, 6 deg. blue sky and sunshine now @ 10.04 a.m = Felt like Christmas Day this morning to find the 30d uploaded :-) Wow amazing forecast! # speechless.. for a change ! ;-D On 30 Nov 2014, Andy wrote: The next few weeks could be a turning point in the methods used in long range forecasting. Having viewed many December forecasts there are very few that are indicating anything other than slightly cooler conditions. It is beginning to get quite exciting! On 30 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: World Weather News: Sunday Mirror extract from page 16 "Thousands of Brits were last night stranded in the Canaries as winds gusting over 100mph battered the islands for a third day"!!! On 30 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Both GFS and EWCMF models agree on High Pressure cell to our west a week from now but underplaying movement of Low Pressure down across North Sea. Why? Well one of the Meto remarked earlier this week that their models don't understand Jet Stream movements of this nature (I.e N to S not W to E in a MIA scenario). Just seen the updated December forecast. Very important especially for those intending to travel. On 30 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: 9 am. NW on the anemometer now, yesterday was still east. Max wind overnight was 3 mph, now zero. Pressure building and 1019mb. 9.4 degrees. 100% humidity, Going to take a chance as bulky flannel bedding is washing now and should go out. Am keeping the house core temperature warm, to give a reserve for later and am moving some sacks of pellets inside for storage as garage is away from the house. Am also aware that the low air inlet for the stove will need to be kept open, if we are to use the stove safely On 30 Nov 2014, linda haynes wrote: Just seen December forecast.......all i can say is wow.............. On 30 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: The point is that weather is `as it is` PC does not make the weather but the sub, which I have held for a few years now, allows me to have some share of the genius that is PC. His thoughts, skills and modelling. He has fought every inch of the way and has to eat and live and pay any staff. I wholeheartedly support what he does and I am happy to get a pretty good idea of the extremes that could happen, even if they don`t. It does need a different mindset as we aren`t buying a commodity like a toaster but we are buying into something more tenuous. Tell the sun to be stable and there would be no problem On 30 Nov 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote: I know piers has a good success rate when it comes to the weather.... Otherwise I wouldn't be a sub!! So come on piers you know we can do this!! Let's hope, because it will be!! Everything is crossed!! Bring it on!! On 30 Nov 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote: What does that mean?? Well if it does if does?? And if it don't it don't!! Well I paid £90 pounds.... So it better!! Anyway I was only saying what others could share opinion, nothing else.. Besides this is a place where you can right?? Besides after hearing so many times, how the mo are complete and utterly haven't got a clue. It would be nice to see this point became a reality and other models!! As there's a lot riding on this from the press as well.. Thank you. Btw I'm in entitle to my opinion. Thank you Maria On 30 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: I don't think I'm going to sleep till the 30th, I just can't wait for the 30d!-) On 29 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: If I were seasonally affectively disordered, this past week would have come down on me with doom, gloom and despondency & today was no exception to that: dull, rainy with dry spells in between, the redeeming feature being mildness: 10˚C at 7.30, still 9˚ by 10pm, SE'l breeze all day. However, as I am an irritatingly cheerful person I have enjoyed the time I was able to spend reorganising my workshop & clearing out years' worth of accumulated stuff. On 29 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Stayed cloudy and temp dropped to 8 then back to 10 and still that now @ 21.15 pm.. Met.ie Orange status weather warning for fog also overnight. On 29 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Extraordinarily mild today. It was almost hot this afternoon, with no breeze. Sat in the sunshine in a t-shirt for an hour before watching England win at Twickenham. Phone showed 15 degs! On 29 Nov 2014, shaun - wales wrote: I would like to deliver some exciting news. I can confirm it is snowing in Tenby a coastal town in Wales. Totally didn expect that. Was we expecting any so soon. At present uts only recently started but already starting to stick On 29 Nov 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Crazy hail storm in Australia! Just like Piers has said in the past, giant hail a sign of a new LIA. On 29 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Asim, if it does then it does and if it doesn`t then it doesn`t. Tbh life will be a lot easier if it doesn`t but it is nice to be forewarned, just in case. Many of us have been prepping anyway and they will not be wasted. Discussion on here can only be limited btw as we all have different subs or no sub and we are not letting anything slip On 29 Nov 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote: Hey we're all routing for you Piers Maybe if we all try this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fu6iPhMm5M It worked wonders in winter of 2009-2010 The Great Snow Eagle from the North spread its wings far & wide then On 29 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: dull yesterday. Pressure on the rise this morning as is temperature. 4 degrees at 6 am, now 12 degrees at 11 am, 100% humidity but sunny and bright. Pressure is 1012. Washing drying in the utility as no point outside at 100%. We have a humidity sensor extract in there and residual warmth from the stove On 29 Nov 2014, stephen parker 30 day sub wrote: Hi all, it appears that the end of forecast period this month is not going to come to pass, i wonder how that will effect the forecast for the first week in December?My first look at it will be Monday, i also subscribe to another long range forecaster who;s all over the daily Express, and his forecast is not going to plan. I seem to recall in 2010, that the snow came about mid month, i wonder if we are in for a repeat? On 29 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: A dull mostly cloudy calm 10 deg. @ 8.31 a.m .. Would I be right in thinking its all about to get interesting looking at sites this morn towards next weekend.. maybe the pieces are falling into place? On 29 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: GFS 00z Daily Update; On 5/12 the UK is in a slack easterly breeze after the new High Pressure cell drifts away to our east having linked with the stubborn Scandinavian High. However (FYI Piers ;-) ), the EWCMF shows the new High staying to our West meaning by next Sat (6th) we have a polar low dragging very cold air (and snow?) flooding down the UK especially in the East. This is a new and exciting development. Good luck Piers! You're December headline was in the Express, Daily Star AND Independent as of yesterday. Fingers crossed for you! :-) On 29 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote: Piers, this R2 (28-30) is more like an R3 or R4 in NZ, would you still classify it as an R2? Interesting posting from Steve Devine on the storm in Brisbane - not a mention of it in our TV news media. On 29 Nov 2014, Asim (sub) wrote: I can't see this High hooking up to Scandinavia.. I'm starting to get frost bite!! I can't see anything for 5-8th December too be honest!! And there only less then a week now. What does everyone think? Come on share your thoughts everyone.. On 29 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote: Hail and thunder hit Christchurch and the West Coast yesterday (28th) and then moved up the North Island. Hail was forecast for here but it missed us. It has been a difficult growing season this spring in NZ with big variations in temperatures ranging from hot to quite cold. November has been particularly changeable and who knows what summer will bring. On 28 Nov 2014, Terry Whyte wrote: to be fair Andy I have been watching madden and exacta closely lately and the models and other forecasters have changed when they said they would. and if that were true then why not forecast a heatwave evey summer? so i imagine piers is a fair person that will allow my comment to be published on here, this is about the met office and other forecast being wrong not that of exacta. piers how do i get the £75 deal? I would like to compare yours and exactas december/winter forecasts. On 28 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: 10˚C at 7.30 and all the way through the day, still 9˚ by 10pm, very heavy showers first thing but then largely dry (as in no rain, the ground is soaked) under a low grey sky wrapping everything in a pronounced gloom, obligate SE'ly breeze, fine drizzle now after 10. Pressure is around 1012 hPa, showing clearly that high pressure does not always mean fair as it says on the popular barometers. I wonder how long this Scandinavian High will persist and whether it'll throw a spanner in the works of Piers' predictions in the short term? All very interesting in spite of the darkness. On 28 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote: BBC at just before 10 oclock tonight hinted at some snow in their ten day forecast next weekend for Scotland ( on news24) On 28 Nov 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote: Piers will you be changing the beginning part of the December forecast.? Espeacily 5-8th dec? Thank you. On 28 Nov 2014, Asim (sub) wrote: Holland seems to be going into the freezer!! But for us uk nothing ... I'm back on my vacation from Mexico mon.. Is it still on?? As everyone having cold feet.. Even little bit me now!! If I'm honest.. Piers could you give a little heads up on what's happening thanks.. On 28 Nov 2014, Alister wrote: @ Paul. If I've understood right, the mild SE airflow is due to position of the low over Spain/N Africa, dragging in milder air to us (and soaking them). Recent MetO predictions also show the likely transition from mild to cooler air for UK next week, some mixed messages from them recently. I think we're all waiting to see if the Scandinavian high strengthens and creeps further west and south. If so, it could get a bit fresh. On 28 Nov 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote: "Met Office predictions suggest this winter is likely to be relatively mild as well." .... you have it there, straight from the old mare's lips! Source: >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30243635 << Some funny contradictions in that article to lighten your day too. ...... Its been really dark and gloomy this past 3 or 4 days! Street lights switching on at 2:20pm? .... Asim, I know it may appear to us that Piers predictions are going to fail, but I have witnessed dozens of times, a dramatic change in just a few days, which always takes the Met Office completely by surprise. Look at the sun-spots, plenty of reasonably sized ones across the whole of the sun's equatorial region. Then look at the two huge coronal holes near the sun's poles. The spots show increased magnetic activity, and the coronal holes projecl that toward the earth in the form of an increased density, and usually increased speed, of the solar wind. Its these changes which will cause a dramatic shift weatherwise. On 28 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Exacta & WA vs Met O also picked up in the Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html On 28 Nov 2014, Paul wrote: Unusual to get mild east to south-easterly winds at this time of year. 11 or 12 degrees c. You could easily take of 10 degrees at this time of year. On 28 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Yesterday milder max temp around 11 deg. A light wind in the evening and temp stayed mild overnight, 12 now at 13.00 and mostly cloudy with the odd patch of blue sky with a light breeze.... On 28 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: http://news.sky.com/story/1381881/brisbane-battered-by-supercell-storm On 28 Nov 2014, ian wood wrote: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/11/27/dewdney/ On 28 Nov 2014, Asim ( sub£ wrote: Seems to be a different picture for end if November... Ummm wanna see what happens now for early and the December forecast!! I have a bad feeling about this!! Hope I'm wrong!! On 28 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Well I hope Pier's is wrong with his comment in the DE, because we only need one to two inches of snow down here in the south and everybody thinks we are living at the north pole. The TV and radio never shuts up about late trains, slippery roads, dangerous freezing conditions, untreated roads. the councils lack of stockpiled salt. Then schools close, and everybody stockpiles a month's worth of food. When you see the photos of what North America had - it makes our reaction to one inch - a pantomime! On 28 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Mild again. Blue sky & sunshine made a brief appearance yesterday, which was very cheering. Overnight low of 7 and currently 10 degs. Still have the east to west flow of air. Great news is that tomorrow looks like it will be sunny & mild, which given I'll be outdoors most of the day, is a huge bonus. Seems to be a bit of a divergence in forecasts for end of Nov, so am very interested to see what Dec shall bring. On 28 Nov 2014, Ian wrote: Dear Piers, A suggestion for Black Friday shopping day. I think this would make your customers really happy and grateful. Why not abolish the 30 day subscription service and upgrade all existing 30 day subscribers to the WA 45 day sub at no extra cost to them. I think it would win you many more loyal and repeat customers. On 28 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Ola! 00z GFS & GFSP models show Scandinavian High Pressure cell retreating East then new High Pressure cell moves into the English Channel where it sits for a week giving boring but dry conditions over the South and westerlies over the North. After 2 days consistency, we're back to the models throwing a dart at the board of possibilities. I honestly don't know what to believe but the GFS consistently wants to hand control back to westerlies. Doesn't mean it's right though. On 27 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote: Sue - the BBC will be keeping up a steady stream of propaganda ahead of next year's Paris gathering of climate fools to try to get people to push for an agreement to ruin the western economies. Just taken delivery of a set of wheels with Dunlop winter tyres fitted off ebay ready for next month and beyond. My days of walking to the station may well come to an end next year. In 2010 I had to drive to another station as my branch line was closed for 4 days. On 27 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: We have a word for the kind of day it's been today: dreich. That means dull ot foggy, damp to wet, as well as cold usually, though today it wasn't really too bad temperature wise, 5˚C at 7.30 rising to 9˚ & staying there right up to 10pm, all accompanied by a light SE'ly breeze. Landscape has its own beauty in these conditions, with swathes of mist swirling low through the trees. Rivers pretty full with all the rain, land soggy and impassable without leaving huge marks or getting stuck. On 27 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote: Gill you do have ad valid point, how about this piers if you are going to give out some details in the press it would be kind to let the 30day have there forecast early as they are the ones paying up front, I know how galling it is that is why I upgraded to 45days, it,s a thought. On 27 Nov 2014, Jay wrote: Piers and WA team have you seen this. You have even more coverage on the Express today http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540842/Weather-forecast-winter-bitter-freeze-UK Mr Corbyn accused officials of ignoring warnings the country is woefully unprepared for what could be one of the harshest winters ever to hit. I SINCERELY HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT! On 27 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: keep the faith, GFSP looks mighty interesting!! On 27 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: nigella we have been taking D3 cholicalciferol for 7 years now. We started by enrolling in d`action, a research programme, we had to do pin prick testing. We were well under at first but have been stable for 5 years at the right levels, we left d`action, 3 years ago as we now know the optimum dosage for each of us. We don`t get winter SAD and are very healthy for our ages. D3 is our most important supplement. Obs: dull all day, 9 degrees, pressure v steady at 1002, no wind. 97% humidity On 27 Nov 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote: I have bought the dec 30day forecast, so waiting to see what it brings. I really really hope that it does bring snow as I have been warning people for weeks now. Our weather in N.Ireland, well today and yesterday we had to scrape ice off the car at 7.30am. Lots of fog which lingers through the day, dense overnight, but still pockets and never really clearing. No real wind to speak of. Mon morning there was a light wind which made the temp, (6 deg) feel like ice running through you. The fog reminds me of 2009 and 2010 and the run up to the real cold spells. Dreadful report on BBC breakfast this morning about the extreme problems man-made global warning will bring: heatwave and drought and flood. No real reason for the report that I could see, nothing new or immediate in it, felt like they just wanted to slip it in, had to keep reminding people that Co2 warming is still an issue....just before we freeze and forget about it ! lol! On 27 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote: Rain, drizzle and fog come late afternoon yesterday while out house-hunting in W Sussex, E Sussex and Kent. Not really cold - van heater on mainly to demist the screen and windows. I found that having just the 30d sub didn't give you enough warning if you were planning an event early in the month so went for the 45d. I think Gill was making a valid point but that it has also been well responded to here. With regard to a subscriber forum, it would have to be limited to discussing only 30d forecasts if open to all otherwise details of other forecasts could be revealed. This then requires moderation and a resource to do it. I can't believe the BBC-MetO forecaster letting it be known - albeit late at night - that they don't have a clue if the Jetstream meanders because their poor little model can't cope. Wonder if we will ever see the person that made that slip again. On 27 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Credit to WA for publishing my comment - didn't think it would get through. On 27 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Mildish theme continuing. Overnight low of 7 and predicted high of 11 degs. Blue sky breaking through - hallelujah! Steve, I take Vit D supplements from September through to April - have found it very useful to overall wellbeing in winter months. There is quite a bit of research suggesting how most of us in the UK are likely to be deficient. Sadly no supplement for excess of red wine though! ;-) On 27 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: Quick update from me. Dull and drizzly this morning with the temperature on the car thermostat (not the most reliable source in the world) reading 11c at 7am, as opposed to 2c two days prior. I find this lack of sunlight utterly depressing and the bags under my eyes are testament to both lack of Vitamin D and excess of red wine last night! :-) On 27 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Gill- WA posted months of my reviews of the forecasts [the good bad and ugly] so there was no censorship there even when it got a zero score. As long as it refers to a forecast period that has happened seems no problem...... meanwhile I see harrabin has posted another uncritical report of the royal society hallucination we all going to die if co2 rises. There was not one sentence in that report that gave any alternative opinion which is blatant bias and so propaganda. So its more evidence that the bbc is not to be trusted as a reporting organisation but to be treated as an interest group. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30215782 On 27 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: The fog lifted a bit in the late eve. Stars could be seen again but stayed cold and saw frost forming on the outside wooden table, cleared overnight as temps rose towards morning I presume as 6 deg. At 8.25 a.m and partly cloudy.. On 27 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote: Gill as a farmer to a farmer you really must subscribe to 45 day forecast to be of any benefit for forward planning. As for a members forum it would be difficult as many members are on a different forecast length. Fast approaching 200 mm of rain for this month, another record wet month, it will be interesting to see what eventually happens next month from a farming perspective I hope Piers is partially wrong. On 27 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Good morning world. Some consistency at last on the 00z GFS models. We have gentle easterlies from The Scandinavian High until Monday, then we're in a col, then a new HP cell drifts over the UK from the west by 5/12. That would bring settled weather with cold nights though. I get the feeling something is lurking in the pre verbal shadows just waiting to show itself... On 26 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Gill - Piers has some comments in regards to the Express article (taken from main page & copied to newsblog as easily missed) === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/what-will-winter-bring-comment-from-piers/ === Having finally read the article myself (and it is just my take) he's only given away the headline so to speak not the content. It's similar to when the front page of the f'cast has been revealed before-i.e. not the crucial pages that follow. It's also nothing different than he said at the Nov 5 meeting & reported in comments at Bishop Hill (it was a public meeting). Piers often gives away a 'taster' pre xmas...just not always...& revealed the 'Piers Storm' from last Oct weeks before. The tasters were what tempted me at this time of year. I think of it like a baker who leaves the door wide open & sometimes offers a delicious wee baked taster to whet the appetite. // (apologies in advance) Are you weather hungry? Subscribe!! On 26 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: 4˚C at 7.30, cloudy but dry until 3pm when the heavens open and I had no excuse to not go and tidy my workshop. 6˚ max temp, generally S'ly breeze, 5˚ by 10pm. == Steve Devine: I did something similar last year with the MO 5 day forecast to compare it to reality, but I ended up wiping it all because it just used computer space unnecessarily. Kudos to you for doing it though, it is good to show up the inadequacy of conventional forecasting regularly. == Gill, why don't you call Piers and discuss it directly with him? On 26 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Gill...please don't be annoyed. Piers is sticking his neck out both for kudos and the interests of the general public. As others have said, he has not revealed specific timings nor anything beyond December. Let's just hope he's right for WeatherAction's sake! On 26 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: The sun got through a little bit but the fog never completely cleared here today and got worse again early eve. Some frost patches also remained and max temp 6 deg. 0 again now at 20.59 and can barely see the stars, brr parky to say d least!-) On 26 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Gill, you will see specific dates and details plus all the R factors. The DE is only giving a brief outline, it is worth the money as you will soon find out On 26 Nov 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote: Thats why we need a members only forum gill. On 26 Nov 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote: Gill ,i can see where you are coming from ,but also these news papers help get Piers in the public eye ,so more people will visit the site ,and hopefully not follow the Met bias crowd ,sometimes forecasts are part released esp if there is some warning to help the public ie in the headline ,however they dont get every detail in the forecast, time periods etc they would have to subscribe for that chin up Gill .We are all in this together. On 26 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Sorry to sound annoyed - but I do not get this. As a 30d subscriber I have to wait until December 1st for the 30d as it is never released before midnight despite requests. When I made a comment and asked the question where's the Indian summer in mid October - I was moderated and the post not put up - because I was " giving the forecast away" . Yet I see now Piers and WA are quoted about what is or could happen in December to the whole nation. This smacks of double standards, and once again I suspect I will be moderated as an unwanted rebel and thereby all criticism is not posted. Of course The DE could have printed the story with out permission - but either way I am not a happy bunny. On 26 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: lots of coulds and maybes in the express article so its more a be prepared for it than it will definitely happen imo On 26 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Crikey just seen the Express article as well. I'm a monthly subscriber, so I haven't seen the WA December forecast yet. I feel nervous for Piers - it is such a brave thing to do, nailing your colours to the mast like that. I'll be watching with interest as always. On 26 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Thanks Bob. As for leaves falling my obs show dec 1st usually ends it all. As for meto forecasts we know they only have 1 forecast "close to average with a 20% chance it might not be"-that's £100m tax money thanks. But then forecasting for them is a sideline. Producing computer models for IPCC to confirm their bias is where the real money is at. On 26 Nov 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote: Just seen the Express headline Piers Hope in comes in do we can do some crowing On 26 Nov 2014, B.Spin wrote: Well It seems the Daily Express Is going along with Piers Forecast for December. Link-----http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540052/UK-weather-December-forecast-heavy-snow-winter-freeze On 26 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: Prediction here for "mild & wet" as well. However, wind has picked up this morning and dipped to the East again, temps have dropped significantly. Inside was barely 10C this morning before the propane heater (yes, we ventilate ;-) was turned on, now a 'balmy' 14C. Skies overcast with that typical 'wintry' sun peeking through. Trees here went through a short period of those golden autumn colors, then just dropped. On 26 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Yesterday stayed dry max temp 9 deg. Thick fog came in yesterday eve. And subsequently Met.ie issued an Orange fog status, temps dropped off quite quickly again last night, widespread frost this morning and 0deg. Feeling like -3 still very foggy although temp remains the same the sun is trying to get through now @ 9.55 a.m... On 26 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Milder again. Overnight low of 7 degs, currently 8 degrees now. Grey, very low cloud and droplets of moisture in the air, rather than rain - if that makes sense. Short-term forecasts seem to be suggesting a warm up (relatively speaking for time of year) over the next few days. On 26 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: steady pressure, dropped 14mb yesterday in 14 hours., now 1016mb, 8.30 am. 7 degrees, dull, dark and 100% humidity. Not a breath of wind On 26 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Morning all! Today's merry go round has a new High Pressure cell forming to our west then sitting directly over us for 5/12. A polar low does sweep south but goes too far east to affect the UK. By now you should have noticed zero consistency when comparing the previous days run to the next. On 25 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Damp and dull sums it up for today, 4˚C at 7.30, light NW'ly breeze all day, 6˚ max temp, drizzly afternoon under a uniform blanket of nimbostratus/fog, clearing up somewhat in the evening, 5˚ by 9.30pm. == Craig: same here with leaves on trees, I don't recall having seen so many so late (but then I may not always have been as aware as I am now), even though we had some beefy winds in between, but they held on, particularly one Norway maple that turns a luminous yellow every autumn, it has only just lost the last leaves. == Regarding December, I wonder why I bought so much coal and kerosene, stocked up on loads of firewood and am pulling my snow tyres out of the store, mmm? Maybe because of the reliable principle of always doing the opposite of what the Mobeeb's forecasts suggest, but not only… go on, subscribe! On 25 Nov 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote: Oh and thanks i have just took advantage of the whole winter upgrade ,hush hush ,everyone should take the offer for peace of mind ,thanks,Richard. On 25 Nov 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote: They keep telling us mild and wet i can`t wait for them to be wrong !! We should all bombard the editor of this paper when they are wrong soon! http://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/white-christmas-unlikely-as-met-office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter/ar-BBfOBCG?ocid=iefvrt Lovely crisp cold day today sunny but cold 2c at 6am rising to a huge 7c at 1pm ,thanks,Richard. On 25 Nov 2014, shaun - wales wrote: What do people think of Dr john l casey the author of cold sun. Seems to have good credentials and is pretty much saying the same as piers in regards to sun and climate including the earth quakes etc while claiming to be a top scientist having advised the US government and worked for Nasa On 25 Nov 2014, Richard Brown wrote: Read the latest met office wordpress blog...its hilarious!! Waffles on about the expected weather forthis winter: its going to be wet and mild.....or cold and wet.....or.....they dont know!! They must think people are thick..... On 25 Nov 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote: Appreciate your comment Maria. Sometimes it seems like I'm only talking to myself, so It's nice that you noticed. Richard - for lunar motion data, see http://www.moontracks.com/moon-declinations.html - it is the easiest chart and plot to find and understand that I've found yet on the web, no doubt there are others. I will be asking the person responsible for it if I can post that plot regularly on my upcoming weather information website, for illustration purposes, or if not, I'll just make my own. One of the problems I think Piers contends with is there is no single place on the web to go to see all the operative variables laid out all together on an ongoing basis for people to follow along with to understand how good his forecasts are most of the time. It's hard to talk about Piers' forecast successes to the unfamiliar when there isn't a quick and easy way for others to understand visually and factually what is going on every day wrt solar-lunar action (& solar warming/cooling). On 25 Nov 2014, Alister wrote: @ Rob. Couldn't resist a smirk after that admission. Maybe there are a few Mobeeb moles who sneak some genuinely honest content out now and again. I remain to be convinced that the recent buckling jet must be a precursor to more widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling, though I am prepared to accept the possibility. Time will tell. What is harder to dispute is the greater extent of cooler temperatures across the NH this autumn, greater Antarctic sea ice extent, static satellite temps, etc etc. On 25 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Yes Craig, I've notice the late leaves on trees & had presumed it was due to the lack of wind. Where they are not on the trees they are in soggy, lethal piles directly underneath the tress - again not having been blown away. On 25 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote: Just read your wordpress link Craig - very interesting indeed, great work by the way! Just saw the BBC Meto forecast for the week ahead. Dull, dreary then getting gradually colder as we enter December (next week) and winds swing around from S'ly, to SE'ly, then ESE'ly as the High Pressure cell encroaches towards our eastern shores. Folks - if you haven't already then please subscribe. You won't regret it! :-) On 25 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote: Maria thank you for your kind words. I try to keep comments on the news blog to a minimum (half the time I have nothing to add) but I try & flesh out. It's been quite busy keeping that going & has gone into to overdrive since the Express article. // Cold, drizzly & unrelentingly grey today after frost/mist. 6C with pressure 1020 (i.e. not tight isobars so rain but little/no wind). The east block that was long forecast to be gone has proved quite resilient & locally this period has been marked by a distinct lack of wind as fronts come over & stall as main low pressure cells are mainly held off. So different than last year - see here === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/siberia-monster-breathes-winter-into-middle-east/ === I noticed my sycamore is leafless (Nov 10 still had leaves when the snow came down), but a quite a few others still covered. I think that's the lack of wind. Anyone else noticed this? On 25 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: pressure dropping and down 7mb since 7am, now 1.30 pm. 6 degrees, no wind, dull and damp On 25 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: A foggy 8 deg. start mostly cloudy now and 9 deg. At 11 a.m On 25 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Remained clear & cold yesterday during the day & evening. At some point the clouds came in overnight & it didn't freeze. Is grey & overcast this morning. Temp currently 4 degs. Cloud movement seems more East to West, than the South to North shown on the BBC forecast. On 25 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote: Bob is there a website that follows when the moon goes above or below? It would be interesting to follow it. On 25 Nov 2014, Rob wrote: Staggering admission from the Met office last night in their forecast for the week ahead broadcast on BBC1 at 0035. They talked about how the jetstream normally goes west to east carrying systems in off the Atlantic however what we expect at the end of the week is for the jetstream to buckle and plunge north to south ie classic MIA behaviour. They then went on to say '' because our computer models are not used to seeing this kind of set up they find it difficult to predict when our weather will transition from one type to another'' so there you have it in their own words.. In summary we don't know why the jetstream behaves like this, our computers don't either therefore we can't acurately forecast the weather. QED. On 25 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Daily 00z GFS Model Watch Update; 5-7/12 sees High Pressure drift across the UK then link up with Scandinavian High Pressure to form Norweigan cell. That would give us E/SE'ly winds as Atlantic lows are held at bay. Intetestingly, the Scandinavian High Pressure cell barely moves between now and then. On 25 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Frost cleared quicker this morning and overcast mostly all afternoon, temps picked up to around 11deg. Light drizzle this evening feels a bit milder 9 deg. at midnight and the frost that was forecasted looks only possibly likely in the North tonight and they have added wind into the mix for Thursday I believe.. On 24 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: The day started clear as a bell but then it clouded over for most of the morning, 3˚C at 7.30, no frost. Slight NW breeze at first, then backing into W; lovely sunny afternoon, 7˚ max, cloud cover again by evening, 6˚ by 10.30pm. == A site I occasionally use for info is timeanddate.com, gives lots of sun & moon info, day length etc. From mid November to beginning of February we are enveloped by darkness a lot of the time, which really curtails outside activities, day length was just 7.5 hours today. On 24 Nov 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote: Maria, lets just hope the power doesn't fail because the freezer will be in trouble! On 24 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Frosty start this morning at 2c just outside the M25. Temperature plumetted from 5 to 3c on drive home from the station. Patchy fog forming as at 5pm. Kudos for Piers for the 22-25th Nov period by the way. We had 18 hours of rain here in SW Essex! On 24 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Your posts are very interesting Bob (and easy to read). Looks on target for dec, just waiting for the powerful diving low going SE into europe. All food in freezer and cupboards, well stocked and ready. Pressure here is higher at 1030. Exciting, like watching a horse race On 24 Nov 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote: Where to start!? Buffalo NY received over 7' of snow during period when Piers said for Nov 20/21 "Heavy powdery drifting snow" for there. Lunar action today at 18 degrees south declination, having helped drag cold arctic air all the way into the Gulf of Mexico last week, now headed north tomorrow for 14 days to bring some warmer moist tropical air northward. Solar flux averaging 30 sfu/day less now than the last rotation when AR2192 delivered sustained worldwide record-setting warm blast, but still potent enough to burn through frigid arctic air that persisted for over a week over 85% of US, and strong enough to waft warm moist air with precipitation from tropics all the way north today into Michigan. I used R4 shovel a lot during last 2 weeks, but this solar warm blast has melted off most of the snow. Piers' US forecast for today holding up quite well. People are catching on - the new mini ice age theme is popping up all over the web lately. Cooling from SC24 dropoff is imminent! On 24 Nov 2014, WENDY wrote: 30 day sub -High Peak,Derbyshire.Hard frost this morning,very bright stars overnight.Temp. 0 degrees overnight.Clear bright day today, early afternoon. I need to make sure we have plenty of tins and long life food products in case of bad weather! It would appear rumours are circulating on Social media!!! On 24 Nov 2014, Ian wrote: Surely now is the time for WA to up the stakes? Give the BBC Weather Monthly Outlook a poke in the eye and a kick up the backside! On 24 Nov 2014, steven wrote: Hi, piers. Just a quick comment. What's your thoughts on the bbc weather forecast for the month ahead from November the 24th. Saying no snow for the next month in a fairly arrogant manner? On 24 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote: Nice start to the day, frost on the car had to d ice this morn car outside temp said 0 in places around here, it went up to 2 by the river but 0 elsewhere, it,s so wierd how as the daylight comes so does the frost on the grass, lovely blue sky this morn no wind for the prayer wheels. On 24 Nov 2014, Alister wrote: Re latest Mobeeb 10 days, look at the forecast pages for the days ahead, tells a slightly different story. If you forecast every different scenario, you will always be right. A more honourable approach is to make a prediction, stand by it, admit when you're wrong, take the praise when right. Consistency greater than 60-65% is significant. On 24 Nov 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote: Ah love a crisp frost in the morning. Seeing it was going to hit zero degrees last night in South Wales I slept in my Bivvy on the local mountains, and I wasn't disappointed this morning, a thick frost and a chill in the air. Hope this December forecasts comes off On 24 Nov 2014, Ian wrote: Well the Monthly Outlook from the BBC Weather has really put the boot in to the WA forecast and the Daily Express! No sign of a cold blast nor any snow on the horizon for UK! On 24 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote: Snap Nigella. Only wished my 5 day local MO forecast could have said that there was going to be ice/frost. Instead they constantly stated 4c - and got it wrong again. Oh well maybe an extra £90m will help them get it right. On 24 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Great star gazing last night again, temps dropped to 1deg. by 10.30 pm 0 this morn. At 6.45 a.m. Beautiful sunrise and surrounding sky this morning, widespread frost again. Overcast now 3 deg. @ 9.43 ( aftercasts here changing to a milder weekend one site saying colder thereafter now....) On 24 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote: Obs from East Berks. Lots of rain over the weekend, particularly through Saturday night & most of Sunday. Had a lot of driving to do & the conditions were vile with localised flooding on the roads. Cleared on Sunday evening & we had our 2nd frost of the Autumn. Was scraping the very heavy ice off the car this morning. Clearish at the moment, although quite a bit of high cloud. Looks like a small low is moving up from France tomorrow, so that may be our last frost for few days yet. On 24 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: @Piers - As soon as I have this AWS (which got trashed by a wind gust) set up properly you will be getting more detailed obs. Note on my obs comparison with last year: it seems that whenever we are spared severe autumn storms, we're in for a cold and/or snowy winter. Does this correspond with your findings? - @Paddy - Ditto weather here. Yesterday was decidedly less cold and despite a starry sky there wasn't a hint of frost. Thanks for the description of the budleja, sounds like you've pinned it down correctly ;-) OT: overcast and wet but not very cold. My feeling is that this will last a few more days and then ... am building an open-sided cover for the bird feeding place, in order to protect the food from both rain and snow. It will also provide shelter from the weather. Still can't believe sparrow are on the endangered list here, at least they're doing well in this small niche of the country ;-) On 24 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: GFS 00z outlook today shows polar low sweeping across country dragging a northerly blast 3/12, followed by Siberian High Pressure giving us easterlies 5/12. Complete switch from yesterday's outlook! ( See below ) On 24 Nov 2014, Asim subscriber wrote: Hi piers.. I'm in Mexico for another week. It's boiling hot here!! But I've still looking at the forecast and what it's predicted for early dec? The uk, As I'm back on the 2nd.. Is it still on for December forecast?? I really hope so, everything is crossed!! On 23 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: Blue sky almost from the word go, splendid sunshine all day and hardly a cloud, 5˚C at 7.30, rising to 6˚ & by the time I came home at 11.30pm it was just 2˚. Under the starlit sky I was expecting a frost but there was a slight NW breeze and no frost. On 23 Nov 2014, Jonathan Hunt wrote: Hi Piers. Things are getting interesting now. Solar Lunar weather predictions versus the computer worldwide models! Who will be victorious hey? Are there any events that we can come and join soon and is there a way to be notified of these via say E-mail etc? II would love to join the discussion but I seem to miss them every single time. Thanks and keep up the good work! Jonathan On 23 Nov 2014, Dave v wrote: I've just saved the met office monthly forcast in the same folder as where I've saved the WA december forcast. It will be interesting to see what happens now, although from past form my money would be on WA. On 23 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: amazingly accurate here in somerset, has been mild and bright for a few days then as soon as R4 comes it has become cloudy and temperature is dropping fast. Brilliant forecast On 23 Nov 2014, Andy wrote: I realise that my idea of using the North American winter forecast as one of the factors in determining the uk winter forecast could only provide an indication of what may happen but I believe forecasting what may occur in North America Can be easier than forecasting what might happen over here. If there is anything which can help when you are trying to examine the huge number of factors that go towards trying to produce a long range forecast then it must be utilised. This may only contribute a small percentage towards the final forecast but if the probability of this small percentage is at a reasonably high level then this would increase the overall chances you have of producing a reasonably accurate forecast. On 23 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Still the odd bit of frost hanging around this afternoon max temp 6deg. here dropping to 4/5 now at almost 5pm, Another cold one in store tonight, been turning over the last veg plot all day nearly gave up at 11a.m when I couldn't feel my feet, womaned up and finished! Pulled the last carrots from the tunnel so it kinda feels like winter has started today... A couple of milder days forecast for the end of the week after a few cold days but giving it colder now for next weekend, one Irish site said cold with a chance of sleet..;) I agree with Saskia Piers forecast has been great this mth here too ... On 23 Nov 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote: THANKS GREAT COMMS ALL! First thanks always Maria, Paddy, Saskia, Steve(s) for ongoing actual obs. == SASKIA Eu yes thanks we were good in North Eu Nov so far but South not good - Discussed in BI 45d forecast bulletin and led to SLAT11 which would have also improved Oct and Aug BI forecasts . Btw BI 45d is of course inc in Fab value 55%OFF BI WHOLE WINTER NOW Forecast inc all updates, SUBS to which gain automatic extensions to existing subs which include any winter months BI. == STEVE ANDY MODELS ETC, Great idea STEVE yes watch successive model runs for same dates/short period. ANDY you seem to be saying use models to advise interpretation of models. This will not help much because they are all in it (ignorance of solar lunar effects) together. This WildJetStream MiniIceAge now is what is - RAPID EXTREME UNEXPECTED (in standard Met terms) CHANGES which scupper standard Met. == CRAIG GREAT work. Note a lot of magnetic stuff claimed as 'new' began 1965 by Prof Dungey Imperial College. On 23 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote: So far Piers' forecasts have been right on the money with mild temps during the day and cooling down during the evening and night, going from cold to mild to cold again the 1st three weeks of the month. The contrast with last year - when we had snow already at this point in time - is remarkable. @Paddy - That's exactly how it feels, a stay of execution! Something is coming, the geese are hurrying South, we suddenly have not only sparrows but blackbirds and jackdaws at the feeding place although it's not significantly colder, and I've noticed a lot of mole activity. Could be nothing, but even the bumblebees have not put in an appearance. The leaves on the raspberry bushes have turned a fantastic shade of blood red but my honeysuckle is still flowering! Whatever may come, we almost have the Iron Beast installed. Next weekend we should be done so this week we'll order a bunch of coal. We'll be toasty ;-) On 23 Nov 2014, Andy wrote: It is going to take a lot to turn around the seemingly never ending rain and wind from the west, almost a repeat of last winter. It all seems to be fuelled by the strength of the North American cold. When trying to forecast uk winter a lot of emphasis should be put on the predicted severity of the North American winter? On 23 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Lovely starry sky last night, temp @ 7.30 a.m 1 deg. Rising only to 2 now @ 10 a.m, crisp widespread frost beautiful and blue sky/sunshine now :-) On 23 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote: Just for a laugh I'm going to describe the GFS models on a daily basis until we reach the first weekend in December. Currently at +312 hours they have High Pressure to our SW and SE with a huge triple-headed plethora of Low Pressure cells to our north. That would mean mild westerly winds and dry in the South. Next update tomorrow... On 22 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote: 8˚C at 7.30, light rain and we must have had a lot of it overnight because there were big puddles and the rivers and burns were running hight today. The rain stopped around midday, cloud lifted & it stayed dry for the rest of the day with a clear sky at night. 10˚ max, down to 7˚ by 11pm. == Looking at the pictures from the US it feels like we might be enjoying the last so many days of a stay of execution just now? On 22 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote: Craig. Just to say that I am really enjoying reading your comments on http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/ On 22 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote: Mild and drizzle to start a little breezy too, cleared to allow some sunny spells and a drier afternoon, max temp 10 deg. 7 now at 17.18 pm can feel temps dropping faster this evening, looking like -1 overnight..