Comments from Piers
WeatherAction
11-11-11am GMT 100 years on
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MOVE HIM INTO THE SUN -
Gently its touch awoke him once,
At home, whispering of fields unsown.
Always it woke him, even in France,
Until this morning and this snow.
If anything might rouse him now 
The kind old sun will know.

Think how it wakes the seeds, - 
Woke, once the clays of a cold star.
Are limbs. so dear acheived, are sides,
Full-nerved - still warm - too hard to stir?
Was it for this the clay grew tall?
- O what made fatuous sunbeams toil
To break earth's sleep at all?

https://allpoetry.com/poem/8456361-Futility-by-Wilfred-Owen 
http://everythingaboutenglish.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/6/4/19644579/futility-slide7.jpg

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FORECAST TOP NEWS
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Piers Corbyn Says Met Office Winter Forecast is "Foolish babble from deluded charlatans and should be ignored absolutely".

"All the Met Office warnings of extreme winter or summer seasons since 2007 have been the oppsite to what took place - recall the 'BBQ'/fine summers which turned out as floods (2007, 2008, 2009, 2012) or the mild near-snow-free winters (in line with Co2 warmist catechism) for 2009-10 and 2010-11 which in reality had record cold and snow - and so the list goes on", said Piers at WeatherAction's London Bridge Office 12th Nov.

"The problem for the public is that because this cabal of charlatans (as far as long range forecasts go) are shovelled so much money from the public purse they feel a need to say something. In reality the public are being robbed to be misled and the recent abomniable announcment of £97Million on more Met Office super-computing means the public will be misled faster. 

In terms of the actual MO forecast we must first be clear that whatever they say has no statstical merit or in their case they have a record of negative skill  (whereas WeatherAction has a proven success record and got all the extremes listed above correct for example).

For this particular winter the "milder (at least till New Year)-wetter and windier than normal" prognosos has we would estimate only a 5% chance of being confirmed. Weather Action is 95% confident that the MetO forecast will fail.

The winter extra money to NHS will not be enough. Govt reliance on #MetOffice misguided Co2-warmist-nonsense 'Forecasts' will cause more suffering and deaths which could be avoided if politicians had the guts to lance the boil of the #Co2Con .

One must ask is the Govt using MetOffice forecasts to advise on how much etxra cash the NHS needs this winter, and if so WHY? 

We wish we had the public funding to release our forecasts for free. We cannot do that, neverthless we are now releasing:-  

The whole winter package of all winter months forecasts for Britain + Ireland now and all updates of more detail as they are issued for a time-limited 55% reduction in charge - for subscriptions taken in the 6 days (NOW EXTENED) 12-17thNovember (GMT) inc. 

After that prices will revert to a much higher figure - see below.

The reasons why the Met Office long-range prognoses will continue to fail and the BBC will never have an honest informed scientific debate involving WeatherAction on the matter is:-

(i) They are tied to the CO2 warmist view of weather which can never accept solar activity drives it, so hey are unable to even consider what is needed to put forecasts right in medium and long range.

(ii) Their back-data and models are warped by CO2 warmism and data fraud and cannot cope with the wild Jet Stream behaviour now dominating world circulation and which will continue for two more decades as the world goes further ino 'Mini-Ice-Age' type circulation. The wild Jet Stream behaviour is understood and was predicted by WeatherAction but is completly 'out of the box' as far as standard meteorology and Co2 delusional warmism is concerned.

(iii) The BBC will suppress honest debate on the matter because they are wedded to CO2 warmism and support for the Govt and BigOil desire to have a high energy price economy which subsidises stupid money-wasting activity such as wind-farms.

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11220184/Met-Office-says-winter-will-be-wetter-and-windier-than-usual.html


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was £200, NOW warmist Charlatan busting offer:

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Offer extended by requests to give more occasional web users a fair chance-
then price goes up to £160 on Nov18 which is still a reduction and would be the Dec1 price.
Some other prices have been reviewed/changed for consistency.

This is 'No Loss For overlap'. If you already have eg BI 30d/45d through the 3 winter months then we extend that service by 3months beyond present expiry. 

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Europe this November has VERY DRAMATIC developments with circulation switches same time as USA.  

SNOW COVER (below) 
is already looking ominous in North America and EurAsia but that does not mean there will be wild Jet Stream waves (from Sudden stratospheric warmings which only WeatherAction can predict) which MIGHT bring it your way. 
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Latest News 14/13 Nov 
Piers Corbyn interviewed by TruNews USA Radio
http://www.trunews.com/thursday-november-13-2014-raymond-ibrahim-piers-corbyn/
start at mid recording to find Piers' interview - near the second bracket...d]
TruNews is a widely listened station in USA with a notable following across the world

9 Nov 2014 Thought For The Day 25 years on
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As the #BerlinWall of #SovietLies FELL so will the WALL of #CO2WamistLies. WindFarms are The BerlinWall of CO2WarmistLies says Piers

6 Nov (pm)
Piers Corbyn asked Ed Davey UK Energy Secretary at EnergyLive 2014 (#EL2014):  "When will you accept the scientific reality that the theory of ManMade Climate Change is delusional nonsense?...(etc)". This, or part of such, was, we are informed, reported on SkyNews*.
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Ed- #Deranged - Davey's school-boy response - about cow burps versus farts - got understandably tweeted; somewhat highlighting his breadth of humour and shallowness of scientific understanding.
Fuller report coming
*not a link at present, if anyone has one please tweet it #EL2014 and #WeatherAction

6 Nov earlier
Remember Remember The 5th of November - Climate & Energy Policy meeting relocates to John Harvard Library London Bridge as Parliament booking system sabotages popular event
All concerned in organising and publicising the Nov5th #RepealClimateAct / #WeatherAction / MEPs / MPs jointly hosted public meeting apologise for inconveneince caused by the enforced relocation of this event which was due to circumstances beyond our control and thank all those who moved heaven and earth to make it still happen. 
The meeting was moved at very short notice to the John Harvard Library at London bridge and attended in the end by about 20 people many more having been unable to get there or having not been given information.

The event had been organised in the usual way as on previous occasions through booking by a climate realist inclined MP in this case, as on many other occasions, Sammy Wilson DUP MP. As on some previous occasions the Parliament booking system warned they may relocate the event if the room was needed for Parliamentary business. However on this occasion they said at short notice there were no other rooms large enough (Room 9, booked, holds 90) and (at VERY short notice) were not prepared to give another room for a smaller amount of people (eg 50) and CANCELLED the meeting. The front desk told that to enquirers with no other information.
Janet Burton, Sammy Wilson's Office manager who worked very hard on this matter e-mailed that the House Of Commons refusal was (claimed to be) 'for health and safety reasons' and wrote: 
"I do think it is unfair when someone arranges something that they can turn around and take the room from under our feet the way they do".  The offices of other MPs (eg Graham Stringer, Lab) were also unable to help further because the HOC system had already decided.   
After 3 failed attempts at re-location Piers Corbyn got the John Harvard Library (Borough High Street) to kindly book in the event at half an hours notice and for this we deeply thank them.

At the adjourned - and in the end excellent and Video recorded (watch his space) - meeting Piers said it was 'pretty unbelivable' that there was not a possible room for the event because there are just not enough MPs to occupy all the rooms at the same time on business and the health and safety reason was "ridiculous". "It is ironic that in future all our meetings (if any) in Parliament will have to have back-up provisions in place rather like wind farms need back-up supplies for when they cannot deliver". Many at the meeting considered the HOC decison was deliberate sabotage.
Roger Helmer MEP (UKIP) gave a brilliant expose of the insane bankruptcy of the energy policies of the other parties in Parliament and explained UKIP's realistic practical low cost policies.
Piers Corbyn spelt out the facts that (Man's) CO2 changes in the real world have ZERO effect on climate and explained why this is the case and that the CO2 warmists should be given no quarter whatsoever on this point - to do so gives them cover for lies, plunder and energy price hikes. 
He also gave an account of new findings in solar-based forecasting and announced: 
There will be some solar-driven SUDDEN STRATOSPERIC WARMINGS THIS WINTER which will precede major snow events - detailed WeatherAction forecasts give details of regions (parts of Eu, Br+Ir, USA) and dates. 


2Nov
UN Climate Committee latest report "Lies desperate, beyond belief".
"The Report issued 2 Nov by the UN IPCC is their most insane and deranged yet", says Piers Corbyn. 
"The astounding thing about these latest UN Climate Scare claims is that they admitted only a few months ago that the world is not warming as they said it should and they have produced no plausible explanation from their theory for this fact. There have been no new findings or meaningful new calculations since then; so they know what they are now saying is a pack of lies - desperate beyond belief. 
"Why the whole theory is nonsense is clearly shown on our www.WeatherAction.com home page (<= see Left hand side, here). The large interests who profit from the Delusion of Man-Made Climate Change will not suurender to the truth without a fight.
As a first step we suggest "Ed - 'Deranged' - Davey UK MP (LibDem Coalition Minister responsible) who is promoting this propaganda must be CALLED TO ACCOUNT and removed from office and Parliament. We will be discussing more about what to do at the Public meeting in Parliament, Palace Of Westminster, 5Nov (info below).

31 Oct Halloween Record UK temperature Comment
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Piers Corbyn says :
"This record UK temperarure for 31st Oct and the preceeding warm days is confirmation of our forecast of 'Indian Summer' conditions for the UK this October even if the warrmth has been delayed. The reason for it is of course the solar activity-lunar state which we predicted would lead to the long S-N-S (Meridional) Jet Stream flow which gave the warmth. It is absolutely nothing whatsover to do with CO2 although the BBC deluded innuendo is that 'All extremes are CO2 extremes' 

Matthew Brown WeatherAction monitor says:
"Amazing though today's temperatures were of 23.6 celsius in the South East they were statistically inevitable. When looking at record breaking temperatures from September-December there is a clear approximate 5- 6 celsius drop each month. 
35.6 Celsius for September, 29.9 Celsius for October, 23.6 Celsius for November 1st in practical terms as no real difference between the potential for high temperatures between October 31st and November 1st.Roughly 18.5 Celsius in December.
I think British temperature records started in the 1650s and it will take many many years until we have the maximum potential temperature for every single date in the year, so when a new record is made it is just the statistics inevitably taking their course and is not evidence of global warming at all."

News release Oct28th/29th
Piers Corbyn denounces MetOffice New computer as 'getting the wrong answers quicker' and warns of blackouts this winter

"The New Met Office computer, that has cost the taxpayer £97 million, will just give the wrong answers quicker!", he said. 
"The fact is that Standard Meteorology has reached its limits and no amount of extra computing power of a hundred million pounds, a billion or a trillion can overcome its limitations. The rule is Rubbish in Rubbish out. 
"Their claim that this shameful theft from the public purse will help them make better long range forecasts is self-serving delusional nonsense and the MPs that fell-for this con must be removed from Office. The MetOffice model that past weather (and sea states) is the main cause of future weather is why they will continue to fail beyond 5 days or a week or so ahead. They do not understand or want to understand that EXTERNAL predictable aspects of solar activity drive changes in the jet stream, extreme weather and real changes in real climate rather than a computer game climate. To admit that proven scientific fact - witness WeatherAction long range forecast proven skill and MetOffice negative skill - requires the surrender of their religious EU driven mission to propagate the delusion of man-made CO2 Climate Change. This they will never do. 
"The Met Office charlatans prefer the public continue to suffer misleading forecasts rather than accept scientific advance. Their absurd CO2 warmist forecasts for BBQ summers of 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012 had floods instead - as correctly forecast by WeatherAction. Their mild winter forecasts of 2009-10 and 2010-11 were follwed by bitter cold and snow - as correctly predicted by WeatherAction months ahead. Furthermore as WeatherAction warned the MetOffice underestimated our storm of Oct 28th 2013 which we predicted 23 weeks ahead, and again as we warned would be the case they underesimated the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo this year which struck Britain & Ireland. 
"A look at their new '7day' forecasts on BBC makes it clear they do not know what they are doing. For 7 days ahead they often just present a picture of a possible jet stream pattern (the changes of which they admit they cannot predict in long range or understand in term of CO2) which means almost nothing to the public and is even to the trained eye very open to interpretation. This is not Forecasting it is Wafflecasting. The money would be better spent on the NHS or keeping coalition politicians promises on student fees. 
"Far from their forecasts helping the economy the misleading guidance of these charlatans has already cost the economy billions and will do so even more - that is if politicians stupid enough to pay them both vast sums of taxpayers money and excessive attention are not removed from office across the board". 

"THERE WILL BE brownouts and blackouts this winter because of the stupid Eu dictated energy supply policy of the UK leaving the public energy-short and severe cold blasts which will be triggered by solar-driven sudden warmings of the stratosphere* and upset the Jet Stream - which only WeatherAction can predict. We will talk about this impending crisis in Parliament on Nov 5th (see below). 
If the National Grid and politicans want to know how and when they will be hit they need to come to the meeting or contact me at www.WeatherAction.com ."  (*Termed Suden Stratospheric Warmings, which for WeatherAction purposes involve the Lower as well as Upper stratosphere)


OWEN PATERSON, Ex UK Minister: BARNSTORMING ATTACK ON 'Climate - Change' GREEN-THEFT-ENERGY POLICY

Piers Corbyn reports:
Owen Paterson, Former Environment Secretary made a landmark barnstorming address to the Global Warming Policy Foundation Annual meeting (at Institue of Mech Eng, near Patliament Sq, Oct15) in which he destroyed all credebility in the thieving Energy policies in Eu and UK particularly since the advent of The UK Climate Change Act 2008.........
Continued:-  OCT29th+16th...Latest Comment blogs below  - with Piers' Comment:  "The world is now at the begining of the end of the #CO2Con. Climate Change Delusion must be destroyed......."



Piers' RECENT WEATHER COMMENTARIES

Oct 22nd 10am GMT
R4 period 21-23rd now ramping up general activity. 
Post Gonzalo + R4 giving predicted extreme events in Europe / Central Med in line with WeatherAction Eu maps (see twitter feed). Deep angry low in Italy Med region confirmed.

SOLAR ACTION
pic 25th X Ray Flare
  SIX (Major) X flares erupted in period Oct 19th-26th 
confirming WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique Extra solar activity expectations in the bunch of R3 (19-20) and R4(21-23, 26-27 and 28-29) periods late month.

USA weather patterns forecast excellently confirmed in R419-26 Oct   
Web Comment received from Graham Custard NewEngland on 22/23rdMessage: "We in New England are currently experiencing a battering Nor'Easter that is sliding up the East Coast. That is pretty close to your forecast for this time !"
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19th (0400 GMT):  http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No41.pdf 
Gonzalo track change predicted by WeatherAction confirmed - see previous blog 


Comments submitted - 66 Add your comment

On 22 Nov 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:

DEC BI+EUROPE Fred, the stratosphere, although probably as unreliable as standard troposphere models appears to tell a different story: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2-v4nSIcAA5oam.jpg:large
On 22 Nov 2014, Fred wrote:

I know models can get detail wrong but the upper pattern is usually not far off. A 'westerly' flow seems ready to entrench itself. I see Piers has made a press release re real cold in December, then that would mean a complete turnaround is required by the models. I fear that the supercold in the US will fuel a westerly pattern that will override any cold blocking. Piers was this fast westerly flow coming up forecast by yourself as a prelude to cold?
On 21 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:

Piers again being vindicated. R period anyone? === "If you heat up the atmosphere you've got more convection, more water vapour, you get more thunderclouds," [Dr. Owen] said. "If you've got more thunderclouds, you get more lighting but I still think the triggering of that lightning could be dependant upon the Sun and its magnetic field." http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/bbc-suns-magnetic-field-boosts-lightning-strikes-across-the-uk/
On 21 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

Temperature was flatlining today at 8˚C from start to finish. SE breeze, dry with some occasionally dramatic cumulus clouds again, occasional glimpses of blue sky with a tiny bit of sunshine, hardly any rain but there is plenty on the radar slowly making its way up to us. == Winter solstice in just about a month's time, on 22nd Dec at 00:04 to be precise, when the light will slowly start to increase already again. We've had plenty of really dark cloudy days of late, which is why I'm mentioning this. == Saskia: could be Buddleia x weyeriana 'Honeycomb', that's a low growing yellow one - there are apparently over 100 species of Buddleia. == C View, can't really answer you potato question, there are so many things that play into growing any veg, quality of soil, what was there before, how much compost etc etc. Best trawl the web or ask someon who really knows, we also have some scab on our tatties but it doesn't bother us too much.
On 21 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:

Patrick Mulherne wrote:How can you make such claims in today's express & mirror? We are in a period of shannon entropy, there is no way that you could make such claims or know what is going to happen......why not? If you compare meto forecasts with piers who comes out with better skill? its not always right but meto is usually always wrong with negative skill because they have bias based not science based forecasting.
On 21 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:

@Craig - Ta very much for that link, it confirms what I felt at gut level! Coincidentally I just today told a friend that I thought this winter was developing a lot like the one of 2010 because we hardly had any autumn storms and the wind almost never dips to the South. Will be interesting to see whether or not this turns out to be true ... @Paddy - I really have no idea which type of budleja this is. I got it as a very small plant from neighbours who in turn had gotten it from friends. They didn't even know it was a yellow one, none of their plants have yellow flowers. It also grows very specifically low and broad instead of tall, and they were totally amazed at the way it has developed. Even yesterday there were still bumblebees around it ;-) OT: FROST! A thick layer of ice on the car this morning and inside temps of just above 10C. We never did manage to get it above 15C today, so we need to hurry up and fix things, having been lulled into a slow pace by the ongoing warm weather.
On 21 Nov 2014, james blakely wrote:

Piers. Media suggesting a big thaw on the way in NE States next week. presumably this could lead to flooding. What are your thoughts on this.
On 21 Nov 2014, Patrick Mulherne wrote:

How can you make such claims in today's express & mirror? We are in a period of shannon entropy, there is no way that you could make such claims or know what is going to happen Pier.
On 21 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

Back to rain 9 deg. A little windy too..
On 21 Nov 2014, DAVID ROWE wrote:

Re--Black Pearl, As Piers & regular contributors will recall last September (2013) I challenged the Conservative,& Labour parties including Greenpeace to provide me with scientific evidence of AGW in exchange for £1 K cash. I received only one reply, from Greenpeace saying Quote 'science cannot prove anything' I didn't know whether to cry or laugh. Issy Griffin was the character who replied & has a Masters Degree, (heaven help us). I am a pensioner on a limited income but I, along with Piers feels very strongly about the injustice concerning climate change.What else can I do Pearl?
On 21 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Politicians usually only achieve the opposite of what they set out to tackle because of their rank stupidity. None of them seem to have heard of Arthur Laffer and his law which shows that after a certain point increases in tax result in a reduction of tax income as people get better at avoidance or just give up trying to earn money. Works for duty tax as well. Example? High tobacco tax in Ireland plus plain packaging = most counterfeit cigs and smuggling. So the money spent in climate change aid results in a worse life for the recipients as they don't get power stations to make electricity to keep drugs and food but they do get windmills and solar panels. Can't have electricity or gas to cook so how about inhaling smoke particulates while you cook on an open fire. Iceagenow has great drone vid of Buffalo snow. It's just total shut down. 4 dead so far and national guard called out. Just as well we aren't supposed to know what snow is or it would be worse. Ice Road Truckers C5 8pm - yes!
On 20 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

The fog was really bad today and didn't lift much at all continuing on into this evening, lifting a bit now at 23.00 pm and temps stayed colder all morning but started to rise late this afternoon, 8/9 deg. now.. I can not wait for the 30th Nov to load up Dec forecast...
On 20 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

A dry day with the obligate SE'ly breeze, not feeling as cold as yesterday even though temp at 7.30 was 1 degree lower than yesterday at 8˚C. Towering cumulus clouds being brought in from the N sea in sometimes spectacular lighting, so we had a bit of sun and some blue sky. Max temp 10˚, back down to 8˚ by 9.30pm, still mild for November. That Scandinavian High is expanding mightily, so far we're still in a 'warm' air stream. == Saskia: what variety of buddleya is that with yellow flowers - globosa flowering again due to mild autumn?
On 20 Nov 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:

On 20 Nov 2014, DAVID ROWE wrote: Hi Piers & All, Ed Davey must be the most arrogant, haughty, & disdainful of Government ministers for decades. On Radio 4 this morning he was reported to have defended the millions spent on foreign aid to combat climate change. He said quote 'We have a moral duty to spend this money because of the damage we caused by the industrial revolution'. This man is a menace to put it politely, but I am becoming increasingly frustrated on how to fight this nonsense. ********* Have a go here...... DAVEY, Edward
On 20 Nov 2014, Lorraine wrote:

Lorraine/ hey Piers would love to know if you forecast that U.S. weather - now that's mini ice age !!!
On 20 Nov 2014, Fred wrote:

BBC just announced that the US has experienced a lot of snow and more is on the way in a COLD SNAP. Obviously they can't accept that there is record breaking continent wide freeze in their global warming world.
On 20 Nov 2014, Rob Horler wrote:

Good point about the 600 million Richard. Just tag it onto the 3.3 trillion we already owe, never mind keeping old people warm in the winter here. Has anyone noticed the increasing use of the word "tackle"? The above story was announced along the lines of "the 600 million will be used to tackle climate change" Tackle is being constantly used by politicians and bbc reporters these days to make them sound dynamic and convincing in their argument. In REALITY THEY ARE NEITHER. Use of this word is the hallmark of a bluffer. Be suspicious.
On 20 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:

I would have said there was uncertainty about the weather over the next few days. I've got my WA forecast, I can see the pressure charts & I'm looking at the jet stream forecast for the next few days and I'd say it was all to play for, if I were in a game of cards!
On 20 Nov 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:

craig M, thanks for the link to the wordpress article- always good reading! I am going to buy the Dec forecast as a little present for myself! I watched with amusement the weather on BBC breakfast today with Carole. Nothing against Carole, but the way the end of the report was left was highly ambiguous. She was showing the chart for sunday, the map was large showing the edge of Europe and scandinavia countries and showed snow falling in sweden. She made comments like "lot of uncertainty", "don't make this the last weather forcast you listen to", "lots could change" etc etc! They don't know! They just don't know! I keep trying to warn friends and family that we could be in for a surprise, but they don't believe me. I just want to get my daughter back home from Univ in early Dec, then let the fun begin!
On 20 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:

uk spends £600m on climate change in poor countries? £600M that we have to borrow from china? In what way is a country 100s of billions in debt rich? When you unpicked the narrative it makes no sense whatever and has no relation to nay facts about the uk or climate change. by which thye do not mean inter glacial warming period but the co2 hallucination.
On 20 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:

Saskia - you might get a clue for Dec from this === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/piers-corbyn-uk-warning-very-significant-cold-and-snowy-blast-on-way/ === Piers mentions the 's' word and it's not storms this year...oh and some famous recent winters get referenced. As Paddy said you have to subscribe for this. /// Lots of sneering in the weather community at the Express which carries a few forecasters these days. Ian F also talking (tweeting) about lobbying parliament? I find that deeply discomforting. 'Approved' forecasting? By who? the Met Office who every time they fail blame the need for even more £££ computers rather than addressing their assumptions...or maybe CRU or UoR who have used every opportunity to pop their heads up to reinforce that it's 'probably/likely/we think/we wish' all our fault and then attack everyone who questions the co2 meme all because their heads are firmly planted up the models backside. I've seen enough of Climategate to say no thanks.
On 20 Nov 2014, Mr C View wrote:

Anyone see Horizon on BBC4 last night. I only saw the last 15 mins but it was about space weather and the problems it causes for comms. satellites etc. On 2 or 3 occasions it was mentioned how energy from the sun causes heating in the upper atmosphere but obviously there was no mention of how that effects weather down here. Hopefully some people watching might have had the sense to make the connection. Much talk of harvest yields and weather indicaters. Despite leaving my veg. patch fallow for a season I am still getting really bad potato scab. any thoughts Paddy as you seem to be the man in the know or maybe Gill??
On 20 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:

It's a shame there isn't a 45d forecast for our part of the world, I'd love to be able to have a look-see in order to find out what December might bring us. Gut instinct tells me there will be more need for snow shovels and salt and not so much for Wellies or a rowboat, but I'll just have to wait and see. OT: there are still (!) bumblebees flying around in the front garden, the budleja still has yellow flowers and the wild geraniums I got from a neighbour are actually starting to produce buds! Weird weather, yet it does feel like there's a significant drop in temps around the corner. It does get slightly colder each day but so far nowhere near the usual temps for this time of year. Using this window of opportunity to fix things in and around the house and trying to get the huge Belgian stove up and running.
On 20 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:

Thank you Craig & Piers. My comment wasn't particularly exciting & I repeated the salient point (the westerly moving low) yesterday. Obs from East Berks today are that it is a little cooler, with overnight low of 7 degs & currently 9 degs. Vague hints of very light blue sky, so lots of high cloud. Looks like the unsettled theme is set to continue with the battle of the easterly / westerly air flows set to take place of the UK tomorrow & Saturday.
On 20 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

2 deg. here in Laois this morning I noticed around 9 a.m very misty and some patches of grass frost in places, ice on car window and feeling nicely brr :-)
On 20 Nov 2014, DAVID ROWE wrote:

Hi Piers & All, Ed Davey must be the most arrogant, haughty, & disdainful of Government ministers for decades. On Radio 4 this morning he was reported to have defended the millions spent on foreign aid to combat climate change. He said quote 'We have a moral duty to spend this money because of the damage we caused by the industrial revolution'. This man is a menace to put it politely, but I am becoming increasingly frustrated on how to fight this nonsense.
On 19 Nov 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:

GREAT COMMS ALL -- See whole winter good deal is back due to popular demand especially from 45d subs who want to upgrade and new people noticing winter is hitting early in USA it is getting colder BI & Eu --- NIGELLA There seems to be no comm from you around a day or so before the one below. Is it still in your outbox?
On 19 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

Theoretically a mild day today with 9˚C at 7.30 but the strong SE wind put a real chill on proceedings, anything from the East also practically always means cloud cover for us. Rain off & on between 7.30 & 9am but then gradually drying up and by afternoon we could see a small chunk of blue sky in the SE and the cloud cover lost its uniform greyness and became a bit more coloured, by 9pm the temp was down to 7˚ & there were stars twinkling in the open spaces between clouds. == Re December 45d forecast: wow indeed! If you're thinking of subscribing, now is the time!
On 19 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:

Nigella - sadly yesterday's comment is lost. I thought it had gone through but I think it got deleted in error as I can't retrieve it. Sorry about that! // The cold pool to our east seems to be building and is putting up some resistance to the Atlantic trying to push in. This can be seen in the slack easterly flow the past few days (for the S/SE) & that low pressure system which seems to have been stuck to our west for an eternity. Stunning how the jet is again pushing down all the way to Mauritania on the west coast of Africa. No cold of note on the horizon (stratospheric warmings can take a couple of weeks to work their way down) but it does look to be getting cooler - just not deep cold...yet anyway // In Dec 2010 the USA (NE) had some ridiculous snow on boxing day. 77/78 another winter of note for both sides of Atlantic. If I recall in 2010 we were discussing at the time a 1-2 weeks lag between events on opposite sides of Atlantic. Just one ingredient to consider
On 19 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

Ps Gerry, I hope so too :-)
On 19 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

A couple of showers dying out by midday, wind turned light with some nice sunny spells then the sky turned dark late afternoon with the odd huge towering clouds, thought some lightning and thunder might get thrown into the mix but just a few heavier downpours then clearing and now a beautiful starry eve. 8deg feels cooler and looks like dropping to 5/4 deg. Later with fog...
On 19 Nov 2014, Lorraine wrote:

Lorraine/GCI. Just watching the One a Show bbc Tuesday - talking about weather and rain and floods and how in ths day and age you can't predict the weather accurately long range .... Mm, !
On 19 Nov 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:

I was thinking about how a winter like 62/63 would effect modern Britain, im only a 30 day subscriber and Weatheraction have not released an "essence of winter", so i haven't seen what piers is forecasting, but i do subscribe to another long range forecaster, and even conventional forecasters are talking about a sudden stratospheric warming event taking place. In 1963, nearly all children walked to school, which didn't close on Health and safety grounds because of snow, now the majority of them are driven, most people worked within a few miles of their homes, now people work and shop further away, so i predict road chaos and a big hit to the economy!. Where i work in Gerrards Cross in South Bucks, 10mm of snow causes road gridlock, imagine weeks and weeks of it!
On 19 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Currently over half of the US is under a blanket of snow. National Guard mobilised in Buffalo New York State due to the feet of snow. Comments on iceagenow are that it feels like the end of December not just over halfway through November. Records for snow amounts, appearance of snow, lowest daily high temperatures all falling and yet the Warmists will have us believe that this has been the hottest year evah!!! Can nature produce a white ending all over to puncture their balloon? Hope so.
On 19 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:

Not sure where yesterday's comment went to, but here is today's. Obs from East Berks. Weather not been too bad of late. Temps have normalised for time of year and it has been a mixture of showers, with occasional sunshine. Has been interesting to see another low moving from East to West over the UK again. Overnight low of 7 degs & current temp of 10 degs.
On 19 Nov 2014, Lorrainemarson@gmail.com wrote:

Lorraine/GCI - WOW just been looking at posts from friends in Chicago - snow and more snow but they are talking about thunder snow and snow coming across the lake like a sandstorm bizarre
On 19 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

9 deg. Start this morning with a fresh SE wind making it feel cooler, grey dull and trying to rain..
On 19 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:

The current R3 has continued to pack a punch in NZ with another cold southerly across much of the South Island. November is certainly an interesting month this year. Normally I would have outdoor cucumber plants making progress but the one I planted over two weeks ago partly covered is hardly moving due to cool soil and night temperatures. I've planted one in the greenhouse to try and get some earlier fruit.
On 19 Nov 2014, Les Parsons wrote:

Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland have had extremely high temperatures with hot North Westerly winds at around 50km/hr. High fast moving stratosphere cloud also.No rain has fallen, or seems to be imminent. It is getting critical for farmers. Suicides are starting to happen. The believers are blaming the CO2 for our weather events. Activists are trying to stop coal mining. Obama criticised Australia at a University in Brisbane gathering the day before the G20 Summit last week on our policies. The Australian government was able to recently scrap the carbon tax imposed by the previous Labor government. Was AU$25.40/tonne and indexed, CO2, imposed on power stations and industry. Obama was a guest in Australia and has embarrassed our Prime Minister and the Government. He asked attendees to the G20 summit to contribute a total of US$10 billion to help attack climate change. Obama pledged US$3 billion.Our Prime Minister said Australia would not contribute any money.
On 18 Nov 2014, Alister wrote:

@ Paddy - sorry, didn't see tongue in cheek!
On 18 Nov 2014, Richard Brown wrote:

After saying it was going to wet and mild, Met Office now saying cooler and frosty for next week........ I wonder if it will change again tomorrow?
On 18 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

Still 9˚C at 7.30, no change overnight. A grey overcast but relatively mild day with a constant E'ly wind, 10˚ max, back down to 9˚ by 9.30pm. ==Saskia: we have too many mouths to feed to get away with a small coldframe, ours is 4 metres long & 1.5m wide & takes 5 Dutch Lights. == Alister: re fruiting as indicator, this is not a serious discussion, just a bit of fun, unlike the Green Cabal who are deadly serious (in ripping us off, that is).
On 18 Nov 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:

Good point Craig re. internet discussions however I always include as many facts and figures as possible and challenge those who disagree to prove using their figures rather than just ranting or mantra-repeats. As you might imagine there usually follows a long period of deafening silence, untapped keyboards, unused thinking gear etc. No wonder we have reached the 21st century in broadly the same mess as we started "civilisation" in!
On 18 Nov 2014, Andy L (Cambridge) 45d Sub wrote:

Just downloaded the Dec 45d forecast. Wow!
On 18 Nov 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:

Thanks for the December forecast ,people should buy these winter forecasts especially as we are entering into a Lia period ! Weather has been nice today mild sunny 12.c ,not bad at all ,shame we cant bet on Piers v Met for Dec,Jan,Feb we could clean up !!Regards ,Richard.
On 18 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

6/7 deg. Over night rising to 8 by 8 a.m a little misty/fog at first turning into a pleasant day blue sky sunshine with cloud around the edges, top temp 9 feels cooler though, overcast with a light breeze now @ 15.35 pm..
On 18 Nov 2014, AJoseph wrote:

One of the main items of discussion in recent years regarding the UK Climate has been the Gulf Stream and its weakening due to excessive ice melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet. I have not heard anything about this recently so would be interested to know if this is happening.
On 18 Nov 2014, Alister wrote:

Tomasz's latest mobeeb video forecast, textbook example of hedging.
On 18 Nov 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:

re 5th Nov fun and games-given the highest ideal of ' liberal democracy' is to get rich regardless of who suffers and that many ARE getting rich through the co2 narrative then anything with evidence to challenge that false narrative becomes a clear and present danger to them. Given WA has at least a consistent 60% accuracy in forecasting [as demonstrated and documented over several months in the blog notes] what the co2ers say is impossible to forecast and whose own efforts fail to be statistically significant above 48hrs it was very 'putinesque' or 'PRC' of the UK parliament to try to deny a meeting that demonstrates evidence that would be of benefit to the British public and would save them billions in taxpayers money that should go to the poor and needy and not the rich and greedy. While Meto and others admit they cannot forecast next week they demand their predictions for 30 years from now are indisputable 'scientific facts' demanding 'action' in the form of wealth transfer.
On 18 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:

@Paddy - Drat, you tricked me into the same topic again! Let's start out from the theory that plenty of fruit etc has nothing whatsoever to do with any season and go from there *grin* Btw, you might save time building a cold frame by using an old chest freezer. Dispose of the cooling liquid (responsibly!) and bury it - straight down or tilted- and then fill with soil. You can use a freezer with glass sliding doors discarded by a store (I picked one up for less than 10 euros) or remove the lid and add your own glass. Either way, the insulated material will prevent the veggies from freezing. If you keep the lid on you may even use it as a small root cellar, burying it up to the lid and then covering it with tarpaulin ;-) OT: grey, overcast and windy but (still) dry. Temps slightly cooler.
On 18 Nov 2014, Alister wrote:

+1. Show us a stack of evidence with a statistically significant correlation between good fruiting summers and subsequent harsh winters and I'll accept the possibility. We criticise the Green Cabal for hyping inadequate data, can't have it both ways.
On 18 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:

Not quite on topic as such but my how it resonates to the climate debate. "No one wants to take on the rage of the web – by which people use social media to externalise their own resentments and anxieties, often anonymously and with far more vehemence than they really intend. No one wants to dissent – and no wonder our politics sometimes feels so sterilised and homogenised." === http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/11234620/Dr-Matt-Taylors-shirt-made-me-cry-too-with-rage-at-his-abusers.html === in Jan 2013 Boris J was on the receiving end of media+social media flak for having the temerity to question the co2=weather god belief system. Turner knew better & all the megaliths are testament to our ancestors opinion - based upon observation. === http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9814618/Its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age.html
On 17 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

Wet and windy from the E all day, temp constant at 9˚C, not much more to say. Good day for indoor catching up work; building a coldframe to store our sugar loaf & Brussels witloof chicory over the winter, it we get snow cover I won't have to worry about frost & putting on insulation. Looks like a drier day tomorrow. == Saskia: re seeds & cones, we've debated this here before; I used to think like you but I'm not so sure anymore, is this something we just repeat because we've heard it so many times or is there really something to it? I mentioned it to put down a marker so that we can talk about it in the spring after we've manage to dig ourselves out of the snowdrifts - or not :-)
On 17 Nov 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:

To A Joseph, its not whats happening in those areas thats important, but WHY its happening. Just because America is getting intense cold right now, like last year, does not mean we are going to get the same weather pattern as last year, wet and windy and mild, unlike the MetO that also thinks we will have a near repeat of it. Piers says 95% chance of them being wrong. The solar influence could be different this year, plus all those other things like NAO, El Nino, QBO, etc which might give us a good chance of having a high pressure building plus a weak jetstream. Not sure what gives us snow, but I could reserach that on my trusty £300 laptop from Currys or wherever it was. Who needs a £97million one anyhow?
On 17 Nov 2014, William Duncan wrote:

Piers - congratulations - looks like you nailed the set up for this week in the USA - I compared your forecast with the Accuweather one and its amazingly similar. You may be interested in this link - http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/icon-cleared-for-next-development-phase/index.html#.VGom-8niu8P for a spacecraft to look at earth's ionosphere and links to the weather. William
On 17 Nov 2014, A Joseph wrote:

I have had an interest in the weather for many years and think I have a reasonable understanding of how the UK weather works. It seems that if North America has a very cold winter we seem to have a mild wet winter as the intense cold helps fuel the jet stream. When we get a colder winter it seems that the Eastern seaboard often has it mild. When Central/ Eastern Europe has a very cold winter caused by intense cold from the East we often get a colder winter. There are obviously many other factors to take into consideration but these seem to have a fairly major effect on our winter weather. Therefore if may be worth putting more of an emphasis on the winter weather forecasts for both N Americal and eastern Europe/ Asia when predicting what might happen here?
On 17 Nov 2014, A Joseph wrote:

I have had an interest in the weather for many years and think I have a reasonable understanding of how the UK weather works. It seems that if North America has a very cold winter we seem to have a mild wet winter as the intense cold helps fuel the jet stream. When we get a colder winter it seems that the Eastern seaboard often has it mild. When Central/ Eastern Europe has a very cold winter caused by intense cold from the East we often get a colder winter. There are obviously many other factors to take into consideration but these seem to have a fairly major effect on our winter weather. Therefore if may be worth putting more of an emphasis on the winter weather forecasts for both N Americal and eastern Europe/ Asia when predicting what might happen here?
On 17 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:

PR onslaught by the media today all by old friend Adam Scaife. It's not 'research' it's the same old MetO guidance for contingency planners. Last year it was odds on dry+cold according to them, presumably based on winter 2012-13. So they have just repackaged last year's winter to present it as a forecast. That's the MetO level of skill 'whatever happened last year, yeah that'... "This winter could be the wettest for more than 30 years, Met Office research has suggested. The forecaster's three-month outlook shows heavy rainfall and storms in the west Atlantic Ocean are predicted to move over to the UK via a strong jet stream of 100 metres per second. The research, which covers today to January, warns that this winter is likely to be the wettest since 1981 after parts of the country were recently soaked by higher than average precipitation"= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.htm
On 17 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:

I saw and I tossed and turned afterwards. Very mixed feelings and worries behind them. Oh crikey, I wish I had bought the winter forecast earlier. The weather in my part of somerset is so mild and benign at the moment, not needing much added heat yet. When sunny then it is blazing in and the house feels really warm, I have to pull the shading blinds down. I used a betting site today, for the first time ever
On 17 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:

@Paddy - Usually 'they' say copious fruit etc is a result of a warm Summer, not a prediction for a cold Winter. I tend to disagree. OT: So glad I was able to buy 6 months worth of Weather Action forecasts! The only reason I continue to follow our national weather forecasts is to see how far off they are compared to Piers and have a good laugh! Being caught out weather-wise is a thing of the past as I now have become weather-SMART by subscribing to Weather Action. Keep up the good work Piers!
On 17 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:

6.5 quake of the north east coast of NZ today http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/63267269/6-5-earthquake-shakes-North-Islands-East-Coast. Plus more gales and wild weather. We've had a day of welcome rain with no wind but a lot cooler than the last few days. Good for everything except the ripening strawberries.
On 16 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:

10˚C at 7.30, rain overnight but not as much as expected or predicted by MO. Overcast misty and relatively still day & feeling mild, 9˚ by 10pm with an E'ly breeze blowing. MO again has a yellow rain warning for us for tomorrow, predicting a totally wet day. On today's outing we saw plenty evidence of recent heavy rain, big puddles in fields & grave & sand on roads, ground is saturated. With regard to trees, specifically Sitka spruce, we've never seen so many cones on them, just for the record, we'll see whether that has any predictive value for the severity of the coming winter.
On 16 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:

gulp. I just spent more money and bought the whole of winter forecast for £90. What made me press the button was the fact that my 45 day sub will be extended by another 3 months. A very generous offer. Now to look and see
On 16 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Hats off to you Piers. Just watched the BBC Countryfile Weather for the week ahead and there's a strong High Pressure cell building to our NE which will both drag in E/SE'ly winds plus keep the slack Jet Stream at bay. Looks like a gradual cool down is on the cards, bang on cue and in alignment with your forecast. The weather here in SW Essex has been dull and dreary with heavy rain pushing through from the east. Drying out tomorrow with the sun maybe making a rare guest appearance. Am so glad we insulated our son's bedroom this autumn - used thermotiles and they've raised the temperature by FIVE DEGREES centigrade! No more condensation :-)
On 16 Nov 2014, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:

>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnydFmqHuVo&list=SP4041CF224FF2490D << hilarious!
On 16 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:

7 deg. & Fog a little slow to clear this morning but turned out a nice day, again a mix of cloud, then patchy cloud blue sky with sunny spells for a good part of the day with a light breeze, temps around 9/10 deg. 8 now @ 7pm partly cloudy and more fog on the way I think...