On 15 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A cloudy day with occasional sunshine in the afternoon, 8˚C at 7.30, rising to a max of 10˚, by 10pm it was 7˚, quite still with variable breezes, misty from time to time, rain setting in by 9.30pm, moving in slowly from the N sea. MO still has a yellow rain warning for us, though looking at the radar I'm not sure whether we'll get that much.
On 15 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A mostly dry day here today, a mix of blue sky and some sunny spells 10 deg. followed by a really dark sky this afternoon with a few spots of light rain for a short time, partly cloudy and some stars out now at 21.26 & 8 deg.
On 15 Nov 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I find it truly scary how the powerful people that perform this planetary circus act of global alarmism, namely Climate Change, have already made people so terrified of the alleged future runaway warming of the planet, that they are willing to publicly display this terror, without embarrassment or fear of ridicule......truly scary! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30066579 << Around 100 years ago, these people would be locked up in a mental institution for acting this way, while 200 years ago they would be burned at the stake for displaying and inciting witchcraft!
On 15 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Very strong gales across parts of NZ in this R3 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/63231922/Gale-force-winds-gusting-across-country. Not too bad here and we did get some rain this morning which we badly needed.
On 14 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
SE'ly blowing hard all day under a totally grey sky, very small temperature tmeperature movement between 9 - 11˚C, 10˚ by 10.30pm. The rain started only around 2.30pm, on the radar it could be seen how the High to the NE of us slowed the progress of the cold front and gave the Kingdome of Fife one heck of a soak. The fact that it still feels mild at this time of year is a real bonus, the cold will come soon enough.
On 14 Nov 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:
To Sue (Dublin), really feel for you right now. The rain was horrendous here, both through the day on thurs then in the night. temps also cold, about 6 or 7 deg. We had no major flooding in our area, except local shucks overflowing (ditch/small stream), but Newry was bad around canal area and belfast in the east of the city too.
On 14 Nov 2014, janespain wrote:
MSM quote Piers!
Daily Express - reading in doctor's waiting room today, front page article 'Weather Hell' - continued inside, and also shown on web copy
'Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said gales of up to 90mph threaten to unleash more misery through next week.
He said: “Over the next couple of days further very strong gales are possible, the outlook between Saturday and Wednesday is for some potentially damaging winds, 90mph is certainly possible.
“The south is most at risk, particularly north of the M4 around the southwest, it is a similar picture to we have seen last week.”
Brought into the fold - well done!
On 14 Nov 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I am so sorry for the ones being flooded at the moment, living a walk up from the levels I know how devastating it can be and how frustrating too. Bang on the button again today, it has been a lovely sunny dry day here
On 14 Nov 2014, Asim wrote:
Jisy bought whole winter forecast Br&I ummm very intersting, I just really hope it all comes true, and pays off..... Everything is crossed.
On 14 Nov 2014, William Duncan wrote:
Dear Ross and Piers, Thanks for the responses.
I did see your aheadcast had a cold blast at about the right timing but it has not captured the extent and duration - it seems we are in some kind of blocking situation of the jet stream.
Thanks again....
William
On 14 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Rain started yesterday afternoon, although spits and spots, rather than bucketing down. Rained heavily overnight and was pouring first thing this morning. Has dried now & there is some watery blue sky starting to show through the clouds. Overnight low of 11 degs & we are 12 degs now, so little variation in temps, which continue to be mild for the time of year.
On 14 Nov 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote:
Yes, it's been a dreadful 24hrs Maria-
N2 badly flooded and when I arrived home there were fire engines pumping out the houses of my neighbours.
They stayed A few hours but were fighting a losing battle.
Parked my car 10 mins away and walked home...soggy feet.
Walked to car this morning and water was touching top of wellingtons....quite disconcerting stepping into it when you can't see the bottom : )
I've been living in Ashbourne 5yrs and have never seen the Broad Meadow river flood like that. With global cooling this is only the start of it.
On 14 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
So far Piers' forecast for our part of the world has been right on the money. Some blustery days, some sunshine, and chilly mornings and evenings turning into fairly mild days. The trees are now dropping their leafs, which is fortunate in case another damaging storm might make an appearance. Still, some things are more in tune with late summer than early winter. My wild flowers and herbs are still in bloom and the budleja is still attracting bumblebees, who should have gone into hibernation weeks and weeks ago. There are still loads of mosquitoes which present a nice little extra energy boost for the birds. Temps inside are still almost 15C every morning and the only reason the heater is on is to get rid off excess moisture.
On 14 Nov 2014, @piers_Corbyn wrote:
GREAT STUFF ALL-- Thanks many for taking up our WA BI Winter offer which is bringing in new people as well as many, about 60%, who have subs to BI which qualify them for 1m, 2m or 3m extensions depending on overlap with winter months. ALL note this is a great offer and can be shared with groups of families - not businesses - and if you already have 45d forecasts you are getting this great longer ahead look for only £8 per month extra because you automatically get the 45d extensions later into 2015 for the number of months your current sub overlaps into winter. -- WILIAM DUNCAN & RUSS. RUSS excellent point. WILLIAM Our USA forecast has this cold blast well captured, it may be going deeper or/& earlier by a day or two than our detailed forecast but the basic situation is there and it is important to note that even though our system does not forecast Alaska it captured the key consequences of that Low you mention. On future CoOp good idea with standard Met it is a POLITICAL matter.
On 13 Nov 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
William Duncan........ I think you may find that the gigantic coronal holes which have been gaping earthward over the past week or so may have caused the dramatic shift in weather patterns we are now witnessing. Because the standard issue scientists can't understand the mechanism, or at least, feel threatened by some science which they don't understand, they shy away from even trying to believe that there is a direct correlation. Over time, we shall see far more of these connections, until eventually observation will prove these theories correct and all the worlds scientists will have no choice but to accept defeat.
On 13 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
We've also this aft. been upgraded to an Orange warning now for rain and a yellow in some places, also with an added yellow wind warning...
On 13 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Around 7 deg. 7a.m heavy rain this morning then more rain until this afternoon ( an hour or 2 dry with some sun before more heavy cloud moved in) took the car through a partly flooded area of road and was deeper than anticipated, soggy drivers footwell :-/ rivers nearby were up very high and water in a few fields.. Eldest stayed in college soaked all day for fear of losing a whole day for coming home early. 2nd wave of rain started around 20 mins ago, 10 deg. @ 22.52pm
On 13 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, strong & blustery SSE'ly wind all day, getting stronger by 6pm as the rain arrived, otherwise dry all day and mild at 11˚, back down to 10˚ by 9pm. == Reading all comments here and occasionally following links I come to the conclusion that the man-made global warming/climate change meme is a mass psychosis, engineered by the same historical cabal who inflicted both world wars on humanity (and are trying hard to start a third one), I hope that Piers' comment on the welcome page will encourage people to look at the real villains of these events. The blanket of lies being pumped out by all mainstream media, controlled by the same cabal, is designed to discourage independent thought. If it wasn't for evolving human consciousness and the internet, we would be in even more desperate straits!
On 13 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Now a few months back the Indi ran what was an advert masquerading as an interview with Adam Scaife, MetO long range forecaster (was this part of the PR push needed ahead of scrounging for another computer?). At the time Piers blasted Scaife'..."Basically his method assumes
(i) Weather (and nothing else) causes weather. This is nonsense. Its the Sun wot duz it.
(ii) The weather – climate system is basically the same since 1992
. .. In statistical jargon I would say the approach has so many degrees of freedom that any ‘forecast’ is meaningless."
=== http://bit.ly/1zm1iG2 === I can say with strong certainly and that it is extremely 'likely' that there will be an above average chance of the MetO long term forecasts leading to massive amounts of egg on faces ...but don't worry eggs can be programmed into computers (an eggcellent assumption!) so they can always blame that on climate change too.
On 13 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Christopher Booker had it spot on "Instead of giving them £97 million for yet another new computer, can anyone explain why we do not call the Met Office staff to account for perpetuating one of the most catastrophically influential scientific blunders in history?" === http://bit.ly/1zlYfNS ===
The MetO 3month guide for contingency planners is 'experimental' & is not wrong-ever-because it contains all possible outcomes like 15% for a wet winter last year (we mere humans don't understand their consistent model failure is a sure sign of success). Well this year they have a strong computer signal for a positive NAO so "the overall probability of below-average temperatures is lower than climatology [...]
For November-December-January above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average." They go highest 25% for warmth (above av) & 15% for cold (below av). It is useless mumbo jumbo & costs taxpayers how much?
On 13 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Just like lifting a rotten soggy log, mention the MetO & the slugs (trolls) appear. With Piers excellent Remberence at the head of the page I am not half reminded of the pity of war whereby the mindless sacrificed themselves for a bunch of greedy sociopathic cretins. Yes it was all about valour & honour blah blah just ignore the mindless slaughter because our models said it would be all over by Christmas.
Julia Slingo acts as arrogantly as big bankers who lie & instead of punishment by sacking or jail get a bloody bigger bonus! Let's ignore that the new supercomputer is used for constant fear mongering so the 'policy neutral' can level the human populous. If they weren't intent on 'change' then would not pop up everytime we have unusual weather & say 'we think it might be termites farting...the models tell us this.' Yes because you bloody told it to! They could have a billion pound computer but you have thick fingered climate neanderthals in charge...
On 13 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Sue yeah it's horrible here, we only on a yellow status in Laois but it was bad enough for our daughter to text that she is sat at college soaked to the skin and she is wearing winter gear after her walk from the train, think I will be picking her up shortly, heavy rain falling on already saturated ground, fields starting to show signs of flooding and a lot of water on roads, this was the kind of soaking the ground got before the winter of 2010 kicked off if I'm remembering correctly when everything then froze solid for weeks, I'm wondering if it's on the cards again? Only time and my next 30d from Piers will tell...
On 13 Nov 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote:
Met Éireann here in Ireland has issued a Status Orange warning, its second most serious category of alerts.
Dublin Meath Louth Wexford- I see already on a Irish weather news Twitter account Cork is already in serious trouble.
I drained my water butt yesterday evening that runs from my shed roof as it has no down pipe to public drain fitted to get rid of excess. My evening commute will be interesting. Gutters full of leaves are going to cause problems.
On 13 Nov 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
MEDIA WATCH - Metro, pg 41 Headline "World 'dangerously hotter' in 25 years"..."The temperature of the Earth is on course to increase 3.6c by 2040 as our demand for energy soars according to long-term projections (in a report by the International Energy Agency)...this comes despite a pledge by the US to reduce pollution by between 26-28% by 2025. A 2c rise on pre-industrial levels is the point at which dangerous impacts of climate change are expected to be felt...some experts (WHO?!?) say 66% of the remaining fossil fuels on Earth need to be left underground if we are to slow the temperature rise." Just so you know, this drivel appears on a weekly basis in the Metro. I got so frustrated that I've decided to keep tabs on it. Report by Dominic Yeatman of The Metro FYI.
On 12 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
I think the R5 effect only reached us today: strong SE wind with continuous rain from 8am - 4pm, incredibly dark at times, temps 10 - 11- 8˚C, feeling very mild. The river Dee was pretty high tonight, not far from flooding the banks. Pretty clear night with stars & a waning moon. == We only cleared out our tomato plants today, still had a good basket full of ripening fruit on Monday, I don't remember that happening before. Still flowers in the garden, still some leaves on certain trees, amazing.
On 12 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
More heavy rain expected into tomorrow...met.ie have an orange rain warning up for Dublin and other counties and Yellow for us amongst others.. Le sigh..
On 12 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
9 deg. with rain and grey miserable start a little breezy too, cleared up again for late afternoon with the bonus of clearer sky and an hour or 2 of Sunshine! Partly cloudy partly starry mild 11 deg. Now at 20.43pm.. ground saturated here too Gill I'm waiting for it to hopefully dry up soon to finish some digging, like Paddy I have been trimming some hedges up a little that had got too crazy... covered in scratches.. ouch!-)
On 12 Nov 2014, William Duncan wrote:
Dear Piers, It looks as though the US Weather Action Forecast is going awry due to the descent of the polar vortex into most States in the contiguous Union. It looks as if this was triggered by the cyclone moving over the Aleutian Islands. I'm wondering if it would be possible to integrate the Weather Action techniques into a more standard model to allow the solar driven forcing's to be incorporated with other major events such as existing cyclones?
On 12 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Good Remembrance Day acknowledgement Piers. Obs from East Berks. Rained from early evening, overnight and into the rush hour this morning. Skies cleared from about 9am to reveal sunshine and fast moving cloud. Temps still fairly mild with overnight low of 10 degs & current temp of 12 degs. Looks like another large low pressure will be coming through in the next day or two with more rain & wind.
On 12 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Is it ever going to stop raining? These showers are more like deluges. Muddy gateways and cattle home for the winter already; fields too soggy.
On 12 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Lovely touch Piers - your Tribute to WW1 on the home page.
On 12 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More thunderstorms, rain and hail possible for parts of NZ this afternoon including our own area already hit by damaging hail a week ago http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10735051/Thunderstorms-set-to-blast-in. The actual R5 period 10-11 Nov produced very hot weather with the cooler change today (12th), probably the tail end of the period. November is proving to be the wild card this spring, usually October is the most risky month.
On 11 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C all the way through today from start to finish in a strong SSE wind, but the MO predicted heavy rain did not materialise, apart from a few light showers which was fine by us as we gave one of our many hedges a serious haircut. It looks like the High to the NE of us is keeping all that wet at bay, we'll see whether that'll hold for tomorrow, MO again forecasting heavy rain.
On 11 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Very foggy now tonight..
On 11 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Max temp. 10 deg. Today 8 now @ 18.26 pm another overcast day with rain this morning but not as much as previous days, dry and still this aft/early eve. so far..
On 11 Nov 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Fair bit of sunshine yesterday but didn't stay clear overnight, so only dropped down to 11 degs. Broken cloud on waking this morning, so great fire-sky sunrise. Cloud cover has increased but still dry for now with temp of 13 degs.
On 11 Nov 2014, Michael wrote:
We have had over 1.5 inches of rain here at Pontsticill in the Brecon Beacons overnight with probably another inch today!Please excuse the "old money" inches but I cannot give in to Europe.
On 11 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A good amount of rain the last couple of days windy at times too, spot on to Piers forecast for this period, mild enough for Nov. Temp still 9 deg. now @12.40 a.m a yellow warning in place again for Leinster for later today for more really heavy rainfall..
On 10 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, very slight frost, very bright & clear start, clouding over after 9am, overcast all day but dry, light NW - SE winds, max temp 7˚, still that at 10pm. MO indicating heavy rain for tomorrow, doesn't quite look like it on radar, but it being R5 from today we might yet get it in the neck. == Re topsy turvey: I heard a woodpecker drumming both yesterday and today.
On 10 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Very changeable over the weekend. Saturday was grey and windy with showers from time to time, although we missed the drenching that my family who are to the west of us had for almost the whole day. Sunday dawned bright & sunny but became more cloudy as the day went on with some heavy showers in the afternoon. Cleared again in the evening and temp dropped to 6 degs overnight. Currently clear skies & sunshine and 10 degs. I was in Berlin 25 years ago when the wall came down on a student visit - it was a complete coincidence but a quite amazing time to be there. I'm all for walls coming down physical or otherwise!
On 09 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A splendid sun-filled day like we haven't had for ages, hardly any cloud and feeling mild for November, temps 5-8-5˚C between 7am & 10pm, very light SE'ly breeze. == We are still harvesting tomatoes from our tunnel, every warm day ripens them a little and taking them in the house finishes them to an edible state, I don't remember that happening before. And we're also still eating cos and round lettuce out of the garden; we always grow a bit too much, at the risk of getting it frosted, but when it's mild we get a bonus.
On 08 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Splendid sunny day today, started off with 3˚C at 7.30 and a very few bits of frosty grass in our wood, temp rose to 8˚ and stayed there until 10pm. Light SW'ly breeze, some cloud cover from time to time, otherwise an ideal autumn day, a bit of rain between 6 & 9pm. Amazing how many leaves are still on the trees, flowers in the garden, even if looking the worse for wear. R4 starting today, I wonder whether that Low presently over Newfoundland is going to bring the next spell of wild stuff?
On 08 Nov 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
Re. the BBC I heard (the great) Danny Baker say that the production spaces and floors of the BBC are mainly fashionably lefty champagne-socialist types, and on the higher floors it is all "rolled up trouser legs and odd handshakes" You don't need to be a bookmaker to expect very long odds of their ever being straight with us licence-payers about climate science (or politics or foreign wars etc etc).
On 08 Nov 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
As for the 95 percent of scientists, 86 percent of the BBC’s ‘best scientific experts’ did not have any scientific qualifications. And that was only revealed after the BBC spent over £250,000 of licence fee payers money trying to hide that fact. And in Science, people like Einstein, Newton and Darwin all started out as a minority of one. But the main problem with the BBC is caused by the censorship of science, scientists and scientific debate by its journalists, who seem to be all left-wing Environmental activists, and all middle-class morons with Arts and Languages qualifications, pretending to be scientific experts, but with a bias that makes it easy for them to be manipulated by the political activists from the Grantham Institute and Tyndall Centre, posing as causational climate scientists, and the IPCC’s politicians also manipulating and censoring the science to fit the loony politics.
On 08 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Another really wet night and morning 40mm in last 24 hrs R4 hit right on the nail Piers all we need is the icing on the cake next month and it will cap off a really topsy turvey year.
Got our cattle all in the yards on Thursday just in time for this bad weather that Piers forecast!
On 08 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Wild and wet night on The Downs. Lots of surface water as I was out house hunting on the Kent-Surrey border. Early rain blew away and the sun came out. Windy and cool. Such a change from last month. Iceagenow reporting yet more early and heavy snow. Also has mention of a theory that the extent of Siberian snow cover can indicate the severity of winter in the N Hemisphere and the early extensive could indicate what's to come. So much for the MetO-BBC warmest year ever.
On 07 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Topsy turvy stuff today: rain & abating wind overnight, 9˚C at 7.30 & all day, rain in the morning on an ever diminishing SE breeze, drying up in afternoon with even a glimpse of the sun a couple of hours before it set, clear starry evening, frost on the car roof, 3˚.
On 07 Nov 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
HELLO to all new from EnergyLive2014 = #EL2014 further report of meeting especially EdDavey, soon. WINTER BI THERE IS A LOT OF SPECULATION but why not just subscribe to it here now via WeatherAction.com ! Thanks Piers
On 07 Nov 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Keith Barry an Irish illusionist has stated Ireland will have record snowfall before Christmas. He has predicted some events in the past with a high level of accuracy. Food for thought.....
On 07 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A fair bit of blustery wind showers and heavy downpours yesterday eve. & overnight.. started 8 deg. this morning rising only to 11• mostly cloudy a few sunny spells then more rain still with a fresh sw-w wind gusty @ times... A yellow rainfall warning was also snuck in yesterday in the end for Leinster here!
On 07 Nov 2014, steven wright wrote:
it was a showery day today in hitchin breezy especially around the showers average tempertures for this time of year
On 07 Nov 2014, WENDY wrote:
sub High Peak,Derbyshire.
Just been listening on Radio Derby[ 9 00 am 10.00am.} to UKIP
,The MEP really trounced the GW DEBATE.The interviewer challenged him saying 95% of scientists believed in Global warming, he said all the things Piers has been saying about carbon emissions not affecting the climate,too short a time period to have any effect.
He talked about the Ice Age, really great to hear sense at last.He said not all scientists believe in GW!
On 07 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Bit of a stormy night. Rain & wind woke me on several occasions. Milder again with an overnight low of 11 degs and currently 12 degs. Grey skies, clouds scudding by fast. Not so much rain this morning but showers passing through on the breeze. Looks like there'll be another band of rain hurtling through tomorrow.
On 07 Nov 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
According to spaceweather.com "There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.", well I hesitate to disagree but..... and what a whopper! ...... BBC having a field day with the warmest halloween on record, yet they don't mentioon the record cold and snow wreaking havoc across the world, including North America with record breaking cold as far south as Florida and record breaking snowfall as far south as South Carolina. Iran has had thousands of people and their cars stranded, taking 3 days to rescue. It's only the first week of November! Cold winter in store?? Well, the way I see it progressing is that all that heat, which the global warmers say is hiding somewhere, needs replacing somehow, because it's the only way to avoid the coming cold. If large parts of the world are already experiencing these levels of early cold, then gawd'elp us when we get to January..........
On 06 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Change of gear again, winter stepping back: 6˚C by 7.30 after being 1˚ on Wed night (and yes, Maria in Eire, we also had a big halo around the moon), blustery & occasionally sub gale SW'ly all day, rain setting in around 10am & getting progressively heavier, drying up only late afternoon, max temp 9˚ all day & still now after 10pm, feeling mild. Next load of rain on its way as can be seen on radar. MO is giving orange rain warning today & tomorrow - though not a peep about that this morning in their 6am forecast. Somewhat surprised at the ferocity of wind and rain today as we are in a quiet period according to Piers' 30d forecast.
On 06 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Paddy - Totally concur with the 'different feel' these past few days, a 180 from the previous week. Having said that, today my totally unkempt and chaotic little front yard had 2 bumble bees visiting the still blooming buddleja and Japanese chrysanthemum. Still have brambles 'hanging around' as well. But I did see a very large flock of geese high up in the sky in perfect V-formation, heading South. OT: grey overcast skies, a little sunshine later in the morning but overall cooler still than yesterday.
On 06 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Overnight frost on the roofs and cars, not quite sure it made the ground. Very heavy fog first thing. Cleared to give blue skies, which were quickly replaced by grey skies. Looks like heavy rain & wind will be coming through later.
On 06 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Temp. Reached 11deg. yesterday stayed dry and dropped to 5/6 in the eve. Starry for a time and saw the beautiful big halo around the moon last night too... Temp. rising overnight with the rain that began around midnight.. 12 deg. Now @ 8.50 a.m rain showers on and off with a fresh ssw wind, high humidity also. yellow rainfall warning in place for Donegal Galway Sligo and Mayo until 6pm..
On 06 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
More on the hail that devastated orchards in our area on Tuesday night showing the extent of the damage http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/damage-crops-after-hail-storm-worst-in-life-time-video-6124630. There is another possible hail warning for tonight despite our being in between R periods at the moment. It has been quite cold today with a southerly wind.
On 05 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Still dry day, 3˚C at 7.30, intermittent sunshine & rising to 8˚ in a light NW'ly breeze. However, only 1˚ by 10pm, car roof frosted and a big halo around the moon. Totally different feel now, like winter on the march. == 'Puppeteer swapped hands but is still at the wheel' - well said, Craig, the usual dog & pony show to keep our minds occupied.
On 05 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Alister my partner said the same earlier about a lot of things being good in principle but not viable, I guess that's why he's the heating engineer and I'm not !-)
On 05 Nov 2014, Alister wrote:
One of the posters to the discussion to that Telegraph article points out that the grade of the wasted heat is relatively low and comparatively expensive to get to the places where it's needed, because of the distance between source and user. Great idea in principle but not always viable (not suggesting that windfarms or nuclear are viable BTW). IMO far better to make sure we all use less heat by properly insulating buildings. But why would energy companies or tax collecting administrations want that?
On 05 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
I did something on Typhoon Nuri and how it may affect the jetstream. It's an interesting feature and with a new active sunspot AR2205 rolling into view and crackling with flares one to watch ===
http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/11/05/planetary-wave-due-to-wobble-as-cyclone-crashes-into-jetstream/ === /// Brief bit on discussing energy &/or politics - be careful to keep it apolitical as we are a broad church of views. I've had posts withheld before where I drifted off track so I try to be fairly neutral. Anyway all sides have merits and motes in their eyes. *sigh* This may be of interest === http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2013/07/26/a-holistic-energy-approach-use-whatever-works/ /// Ron - Layman's count re: AR2192. Not sure why that was so far off the SSN (this is #sunspot groups x10 + #spots). Normally runs about 60% lower. /// Following beautiful warmth Friday, Fog Tues then cold, cold rain in northerly flow. Brr.
On 05 Nov 2014, steven wright wrote:
if james madden from exata weather i think thats how you spell it said there might be black outs and brown outs this winter every newspaper especially the express would go in overdrive but a much more reliable piers corbyn from weatheraction no paper says a word very odd
On 05 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
An example of manipulation...
"California had an installed generating capacity of 45GW. At the time of the blackouts, demand was 28GW. A demand supply gap was created by energy companies, mainly Enron, to create an artificial shortage. Energy traders took power plants offline for maintenance in days of peak demand to increase the price" ===
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis === I don't trust the revolving doors - be they green or not. However, we do have (besides additional 'hidden' capacity Gerry mentions) good links to Norway+Denmark to import Liquid Natural Gas but accidents can happen which restrict supply. I've seen so much malfeasance in the past few years I am wary of betting against the house winning /// Seen many in climate debate celebrating Republican election - partly as it may apply brakes to Obama's carbon war. IMO puppeteer swapped hands but is still at the wheel. Hope I am wrong but this hand swapping is hardly new.
On 05 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Meanwhile the sun is out blue sky with little cloud, temp. started at 4deg. 7 a.m very slight grass frost here n there, rising to 9 by now @ 12.30.. Back to enjoy the sun while it lasts and work the land in our garden, if I work really hard I might be able to save a bit for fuel next year then!-)
On 05 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The more I read about how the C02 and GW theory affects us the bigger the negatives grow on a theory with no solid evidence and no figures or proof at how spending all this money elsewhere in Green ideas is actually achieving any benefit since it began! when are their theory's and subsequent actions from all the changes they have implemented at people's cost actually going to make a positive difference to the environment weather blah ect.. then exactly?
On 05 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Interesting article Craig, I know my partner has fitted CHP on a few occasions before, but I think I'm right in remembering that they don't do it in Ireland as private customers don't get paid back from the grid so not cost effective, though I don't fully understand why, other than a change of legislation needed? I'm guessing that would effect the main provider's profits here also!
On 05 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Carl - Belgium is basically underwriting Piers' prediction wrt brown and black outs. They just introduced a special website and even an app to warn people of imminent 'reduced power supply' and 'disconnection'. All applicable for the period between November and March. And yes, some forecasts here are predicting a very cold winter as well. @Andy & Steve - It's what I said as well, a less visited public forum would not benefit Piers' work. I do understand NIgella's problem though. Good solution by Carl, btw ;-) OT: grey overcast skies but dry. Temps are still dropping fast.
On 05 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Thanks Gerry. Think this is the Booked article === http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11185960/We-waste-more-heat-than-we-pay-for-to-keep-homes-warm.html === waste a problem. I think blackouts quite feasible but would be of the manufactured variety. Many past blackouts have been avoidable and related to political power struggles. It does look likely we will be paying through the nose - not surprising with massive subsidies to wind and nuclear (someone has to pay for Hinckley C). ///
On 05 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Whilst the South Island of NZ had the hail yesterday, New Plymouth in the North Island has had torrential rain and hail this afternoon http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10706200/Torrential-rain-and-hail-hits-New-Plymouth. Whilst hail is not all that unusual for November, the ferocity yesterday and today's is particularly given that it took over 24 hours for the hail sweep up the country.
On 05 Nov 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
There will be NO blackouts or brown outs this winter regardless of the weather. Only if there are circumstances that are 100s if 1000s to 1 against occurring will anything happen. On page 65 of the 66 page National Grid report is the bit they always fail to mention loudly that gives an additional 10GW reserve to that already stated in the report. They have an interest in keeping it quiet as the government would be blamed for any shortfall and it would make them look good by coming to the rescue. This backup reserve doesn't come cheap it it has to be uses - 40x current market rate. The lame legacy media has just spouted the 4GW figure rather than read the report to find that in time of need 14GW is available. Booker had all this nailed months ago and was on his blog last weekend. This just diverts attention away from a possible gas shortage should a cold winter - not excessively so - and a cold spring to follow occur. Of the 2 a gas shortage is quite low odds.
On 05 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
A hail storm hit our region last night and caused a lot of damage to local orchards http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/62942862/Hail-wrecks-apple-kiwifruit-crop. In our garden we were lucky. I covered vulnerable summer vegetables and the peach trees and the hail only lasted about 5 minutes before turning to rain. We had no damage even to a few strawberries that are ripening. A loss of pipfruit, stonefruit and kiwifruit in our region affects NZ exports to the northern hemisphere so could result in shortages for the UK and other countries that buy our fruit.
On 04 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Last night's frost gave way to showers and 4˚C by 7.30, rising to 8˚ and back down to 5˚ by 9pm. A showery day in the NNW'ly airstream, some of the showers quite heavy, but it was still possible to work outside, we're now into heavily cutting back hedges which have grown wider & wider over the years. == The thing with a forum is indeed the administration of it, who will do that? I think I did mention before that the this blog is the public face of WA open also to non-subscribers and it would be a shame if all the thoughts that are being expressed here would disappear into a private forum. The idea of asking Piers a question and him directing it to one of the subscribers who are willing to answer is a good one, Craig, would be immediately feasible and would also enable us to get in direct contact with each other, if we so wish, without having to publish our email addresses.
On 04 Nov 2014, Nigella wrote:
Thanks Craig, that's a very helpful suggestion.
On 04 Nov 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Nigella you can always email Piers a query? He can then pass it on to selected subscribers? // This is a sort of rough model outlook not the WA forecast...The contiguous U.S. is being modelled for further cold in the near term in the wake of Super Typhoon Nuri (powered down today formed 31/10!!!).N hem building blocks moving into place in what looks already to be a cold winter in the making (hemispherically). Shades of 2009 but remember even if the pattern did repeat subtle differences can affect for BI to get say a snow fest or a cold dull poodle. However, where a dipping jet stream sees cold dense air sink south so must warm air rise somewhere else. The similarity is there to last year for the US but the background signals & placement are diff. Solar Activity wildcard- as Bob W pointed out with the rises of heat seen during AR2192 transit (it's back in about 2 wks) with the record cold plunge in its wake. July US cold followed the zero sunspot period. All about flux.
On 04 Nov 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Snow, blizzards and cold.......would that scenario this winter in the Uk be enough to convince people that the MoBeeb/Govt are liars or would there be a new excuse next spring blaming it on AGW???
Something like the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere has caused blocked out some of the heat from the sun thus causing extreme weather.......
On 04 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Temp. dropped to 4 deg by 10 p.m last night then gradually a rise to 6/7 deg. this morning with showers, a little blustery for a wee while but mostly dry after with a pick a mix of blue sky sun and clouds, reached 12 deg. before another round or 2 of short showers this aft/eve. Showing 9 deg. Now @ 18.13 pm but looks like temp. could drop to 4 by morning and it does feel colder and Novembery, glad to get back in and light the fire but seriously still not used to the darker evenings yet and finding it strange not still being outside late in the evenings...
On 04 Nov 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
I have to comment on Piers warning of blackouts this winter.The scenario would be if we had a real cold blast this winter (which other forecasters have claimed) then blackouts will occur and if that happens due to E.U driven energy policy and if elderly people freeze to death in their homes because they cannot heat it and of course a price hike in energy bills for power they cannot even use THIS WOULD BE UNFORGIVABLE and the whole concept of man made climate change will blow up right in their faces.It could well be the winter that ends the global warming drivalists because simply nobody is going to believe them!!! And the only political party that will benefit are UKIP as there popularity will soar come March as the British people finaly say "enough is enough"
On 04 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
The biggest problem for a members forum is some of us are on different lengths of forecast ie 30/45/75/100 and it would be very difficult to not give the wrong information.
A coat colder here yesterday and today with just a few heavy showers, we had about 20mm over night 38 so far this month.
On 04 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK, (sub) wrote:
Yes i take your point but it would be wrong to undermine piers and his forecasts so we will have to keep it to general terms at the moment frustrating as it is. We had about 2 hours of very heavy rain yesterday morning then the sun came out and it was a clear night with a temp of 2c with a slight frost on the cars.
So far today it has been a sunny day and 12c as i write this post.
On 04 Nov 2014, Nigella wrote:
I'm not suggesting its broken Steve - but I'd like to be able to ask questions. The questions I want to ask would definitely give away aspects of the forecast - so I have to stay schtuum & it is frustrating to be paying for something that I don't fully understand at times & I can't discuss it properly with fellow subscribers because I might give something away!
On 04 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
If it ain't broke then leave it alone.A good old Saying with a lot of common sense.
On 04 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Nigella - Splitting out threads would indeed be a good idea, but then one would need dedicated moderators. Not that I doubt there will be plenty of volunteers ;-) Threads could, for example, be split into Daily Observations, The Science Behind Solar Influences and General Cafe for any other subs. A dedicated Web Master could possibly use a script to prevent certain terms being used in either or all of the threads. However, this entails a lot of work which would have to be done on a voluntary base.
On 04 Nov 2014, Nigella wrote:
Good suggestion Saskia - that could work. Lots of forums have separate threads. At the moment the number of contributors on WA, mean that we can meander through a number of different subjects without it getting too diverted. As the forum grows, threads would need to be split out anyway. Obs from East Berks. After a rainy day on Monday, the clouds cleared overnight & we had a misty & chilly start to Tuesday with a low of 3 degs. Currently 4 degs with blue sky just visible through the mist/fog.
On 04 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Nigella - I understand and concur, but I also understand that a separate forum would run the risk of emptying the public forum, which means less publicity for Piers' work :-/ Maybe it's an idea of adding a so-called 'query forum'. Subscribers could post a question there which in turn may be answered by either Piers or other subscribers. If it is strictly limited to both forecast interpretations and the number of answers, it might actually work. Just a thought. - OT: overcast but dry and much cooler at approx. 12C. Yesterday was very windy with gusts up to 80-85 km/hr.
On 03 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, feeling a little more like November today with a max temp of 8˚. Overcast in the morning with some sharp showers brought along on a SSE breeze, afternoon bright and sunny but colder, already down to 4˚ by 5pm; by 10pm there was frost on the car roof and the thermometer read 3˚. == We had a call from a friend in Paris last night who told us that temps in SW France were up to 30˚ yesterday and people were out on the beaches swimming! So definitely an Indian Summer.
On 03 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Partly cloudy / overcast at times some sun also but a nice enough day for working outside, temp around 6/7 deg. This morn. Rising to 12 and now 6 @ 18.52 p.m feels colder and having to light the wood boiler now for heat and hot water approx 4 days of the wk for around 5/6 hrs each time this last week instead of 1-2 times per wk to take the chill off the house and top up hot water in oct.. 6 mths of no fuel April-sept. except a handful of fires & Autumn has been good to us this year thankfully.. as much as I love and prefer cold & snow I wouldn't complain this year if it turned out a mild one..
On 03 Nov 2014, Fred wrote:
Until MetO and BBC and other bodies look at the driver and modulator rather than the responsive atmosphere, they'll never get beyond 3-5 days at extreme best.
Interesting to see that backend of this week we start to warm up again [over eagerly announced this morning by beeb weather presenter to fit agenda]. Deep LP approaching from WNW is so entirely in line with Piers outlook.
I think the Dec, Jan and Feb forecast by Piers for this winter will be a very very interesting outlook. Snowcover in Eurasia was almost record breaking most of the month but ended same as 2009, October Pattern Index of -2.2, -ve QBO [All responsive to solar/lunar driver ] point to a -ve Arctic Oscillation winter so I'd imagine Piers will pinpoint some very notable weather events. Only one way to find out...
On 03 Nov 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Wet and grey again here. Very heavy rain in the early hours of Sunday morning & through Sunday morning itself. Remained grey throughout the day but was dry & breezy in the afternoon. Temps not too bad at 15 degs yesterday with an overnight low of 9 degs. I have some queries about the Oct forecast but I don't want to post them here. This is where I think a subscribers forum would be helpful. I'm not a meteorologist, I'm not even a scientist & sometimes I either don't understand or misinterpret the forecasts & it would be really useful to discuss it with more knowledgeable posters.
On 03 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
David, it isn't just the UK where these lies are rampant. The same is happening here in The Netherlands. and I am always stupefied at how easily people swallow this poppycock without checking facts. Just the other week there was a large conference on how to 'meet CO2 reduction' the coming years. The manner in which the EU is ramming this down peoples' throats is also unbelievable. Outlawing light bulbs and vacuum cleaners?! I can still remember that, when the curtains were drawn and the lights were turned on at night in winter time, fairly soon we could reduce the setting of the heater as these lights not only emitted a much kinder and healthier (!) luminance but heat as well. Admittedly we also have invested in LED lights to reduce energy costs, but walking the dog at night and seeing this cold, white light coming from houses literally sends shivers down my spine! For us only warm, yellow LED lights.
On 03 Nov 2014, occasionally David wrote:
It beggars belief that an organisation (the BBC) can publish a report admitting there's been no warming since 1999, despite ever rising levels of C02 and then, a few weeks later, publish a report calling for an end to C02 because of its warming effect. There isn't even the pretense of honesty. There's a good article about other areas of dishonesty by the BBC over at globalresearch.ca
For us, however, the outlook is grim. It is not possible to beat an opponent who is both dishonest and in control of the media.
On 03 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
[cont.] - Skies this morning were overcast and it started drizzling rain late last night. Wind has picked up and the word 'balmy' is no longer applicable. We now have a group of 30-40 sparrows coming in for a daily visit to the feeding station I built on top of the pergola at the front door. Incredible but true, sparrows are on the red list in this country due to urbanization and lack of breeding facilities. This year we saw approx. 8 (!) generations grow up near our front door. The cats only managed to grab 3 or 4 of them as I have cat-proofed the feeders. And Piers, if your prediction for this month pans out as well as it did last month, people here are in for a rude awakening!
On 03 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
[cont.] - @Maria - Maybe you can set up an emergency solar supply source in the form of a few large batteries from a boat or something, add a converter system and keep it maintained? See here: http://www.americanenergysystems.com/solar-pellet-stove-off-grid-lower-heating-costs.cfm / @Gill - Here's an idea for heating water with a wood stove without electricity. I'm sure you can search from there to find something which suits your needs ;-) http://www.countrysidemag.com/94-1/free_hot_water_from_your_wood_cookstove/ - OT: We had an extremely uncanny weekend with temps over 20 C and I have to say: it felt absolutely weird! I planted a yellow budlea late this summer and as of yesterday there were still butterflies and bumble bees hovering around it! The warm weather has gone a long way towards filling in the 'living green wall' we set up along the east wall of the house, which will hopefully reduce the influence of wind and rain. Fingers crossed. [cont.]
On 03 Nov 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Stephen - Sounds lovely! For now we did one better, we were lucky and managed to buy this big boy http://bit.ly/1rQgcyj We're putting it in the annex, and will feed the (rectangular) exhaust through the wall into the living space. There's an old flue on the other side of the wall, and the plan is to wrap the stove pipe at intervals with copper tubing which fans out horizontally along the wall, then cover the lot with adobe or lime stucco. This will in effect create a radiant heat wall ;-) Naturally we'll make sure the pipe/exhaust is sealed. / @Sue - If you can afford it there are several companies in the UK that build really beautiful and very functional masonry stoves. Here's a few links: http://www.thestokehole.com/ - http://ecofireireland.ie/masonry-heaters/ - @Ron - Good point on the movability of steel stoves. One can always opt for a hybrid in that case, i.o.w. feeding the flue through a masonry wall to extract as much heat as possible ;-) [cont.]
On 03 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
My my how the BBC have gone down in my opinion they had a whole day yesterday of propaganda about the IPCC trougher's on every news bulletin as if it was actually the truth,utter hogwash and piffle. Talk about the emperors new clothes.
On 03 Nov 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Nauseating report from the BBC on NZ TV news tonight on the IPCC report. Nearly put us off our dinner, definitely not good for the digestion hearing that just before eating. More gales over the South Island yesterday and today with heavy rain in some parts (unfortunately not here where it is needed).
On 02 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, beautiful sunny day with a SW'ly wind again powered by that big Low to the NW of us, max temp 11˚, down to 4˚ by 10pm. Rainy prospect for tomorrow according to MO but not as much as they said this morning; plus ça change… ==Re MO computer: perfect illustration of the fact that the purpose of governments is to a) act as shop front for the corporations and b) to waste our money for the benefit of those corporations; in this particular case nothing to do with truth or science.
On 02 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Even though I don't live in the uk anymore, I agree Russ the money would be better spent elsewhere grr such a shortsighted waste..:-/
On 02 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Stayed dry for most of the day with sunny spells and increasing cloud around by lunchtime reached 12/13 deg, showers started around 2.45 p.m with a short sharp downpour just as I had finished digging and raining now, around 8deg. @ 20.12 p.m feels cooler tonight..
On 02 Nov 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
It's a hard pill to swallow; £97,000,000 from the British tax payer, in these times of AUSTERITY?? Mr Cameron....how do you justify this obscenity?
On 02 Nov 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Another wet night and showery day today, so far this year we have had 1538mm of rain that's 60.5in our average is 45ish and another 2 possible wet months to come. We had 152mm in October far more than was forecast here temps were about right though
On 02 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Blue sky sunshine the odd cloud and 10 deg. @ 10.09 a.m only a light breeze so getting out and about to make the most of it!-)
On 02 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
01.11.14
Another blustery SW'ly day, 9˚C at 7.30 & rising to an agreeable 14˚, brilliant sunshine in the morning, somewhat cloudier afternoon and overcast evening with a little rain. Still 10˚ at 1.30am (these late nights are a killer!). MO forecasts another warmish day tomorrow. Indian summer is a bit late but it is definitely here, so Piers is right once again.
On 02 Nov 2014, @Piers_Corbyn W.A. Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL! BOB WEBER really good to see more of your detailed objective incisive useful COMMS. ALL thanks for COMMS re MetOffice computer. Onthe question could it eg beat our LongRange forecasts 1 month, 2month, 6month, 12month ahead for eg BI, Eu, USA? The answer is 100% NO. It's like using an electron microscope to study leaves in the hope that can be used to predict the size of a forest; or investing millions in improving candles in the hope that the light bulb will appear. It is a self- serving religious deluded activity applying a cretinous approach to physics in the hope that incestuous minute examination of irrelevant matters will reveal understanding of factors excluded from consideration.
On 01 Nov 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Heavy rain late on Friday and into early Sat morning. Cloud cleared and by 10am it was sunny again. Another warm day at 17 degs.
On 01 Nov 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Back in feb when we had the storms we were off the mains electricity for 4days, so it was a very good thing that we had already taken piers advice and have a standby generator which we keep toped up with fuel just in case, it was very useful as not only did it keep the central heating going we had all the lights and could even boil the kettle and hot water to. Another sunny day with spring like temps so piers you have been correct about october and the warm weather.
On 01 Nov 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Had quite a wet afternoon yesterday rain tailed off then started again early eve. Some brightness in the sky this morning looked promising but cloud cover won out and has rained again on and off all day, more persistent and windy too now @ 17.11 p.m 14 deg. High humidity and 53 kph SW wind. Looks like temp. Will drop to around 7 deg. By the morning so cooler than previous nights. Interesting Nov. Forecast and going to be useful as per usual :)
On 01 Nov 2014, steven wright wrote:
hi piers i like to say thank you for your perfect forecast for october im a 45 day subscriber and i took the family to skegness for a week came back yesterday on halloween when weatheraction october forecast said that some parts of the uk will have a indian summerish weather and i know how good weatheraction is from the past for example december 2010 i knew it was good bet to have a late summer holiday with good weather i do like what weatheraction is all about for example sunspots volcanoes earthquakes mini iceage and what drives them is brillant i notice the met office are going to waste tax payers money with a supercomputer that can tell them whats going to happen in 5 days instead of 3 why dont the bbc save are money and make a 30 minute daily weekly or monthly weatheraction show even i wouldnt mind paying extra tax to see that
On 01 Nov 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Maria -somerset. We are in the same position. The wood burner which heats the radiators has to have electric to activate the pump to move the water around. We cannot use the burner without electric. Like wise the oil aga needs electric also, but I can fire it up from a switch on the side. My emergency solutions are a camping gaz stove which uses the small cylinders. - They are not expensive to buy from caravan/ camping shops, and last year I was so concerned after 18 hours no electric on xmas eve -that I rushed out and bought a calor gas burner. Only £100 and did the job of warming up a room brilliantly. Sod's law meant the electric came on about two hours later - but it is now here in the house siting in a discreet position in the utility room. - Instant heat at the ready if needed. You can actually buy one that looks like a black iron stove - they have had good reviews - but they cost around £300.
On 01 Nov 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, damp and cloudy all day with a stiff S'ly breeze, warming up to 14˚ and staying there right through until we came home just after midnight. Unprecedented? Highly unlikely but you have to go looking for men with very long beards before you find one who has experienced such a mild Halloween. == Re fire: a good friend but a terrible enemy, as you know from bitter experience this year, Gill. When you use real fire you also have to grow your awareness of it and not take it lightly.
On 31 Oct 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Hi everyone. Been busy. Piers' Oct 27-31 US forecast looking good here. We had thundersnow 2-3 days ago as predicted. Forecasted low pressure over Great Lakes moved through with backside arctic blast, light snow in our area today. High pressure moved through Maine today per forecast. Lunar node southern declination on 28th helped draw recent cold blast southward. AR2192 put on a big flare show w/o CMEs. Solar flux over 200 for quite a while before the biggest sunspot in 25 years rolled out of sight, preceded three weeks ago by about a week of below 120 F10.7 flux, that brought a widespread cool down before AR2192 showed up. Thanks Craig for the articles, esp warm blast in UK, CET. AR2192 and higher solar flux brought warmth worldwide, SSTs went up (now dropping). Warmth from that already dissipating after making its mark on the UK, US, Australia, India, Africa - all around the tropical zone. It was a great contrast in temps from one half of a solar rotation to the next.
On 31 Oct 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I wish we had an alternative to 100% electricity. We have a singing dancing wood pellet stove, which practically runs on fresh air, just a tonne a year but that needs electricity. We cannot poke holes in the wall so cannot get oil or those big gas cylinders, so if the electricity goes off then it is down to woollen clothing and candles. Still we are prepared with an ozpig and fuel and a kelly kettle, both for outside use, that and flasks. How best to deal with brownouts and do you think we will be given notice?
On 31 Oct 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Not quite at 22C here, but the warmest Halloween I can remember in 40 years. We'll now be the centre of the AGW quasi-verse and of course we'll have the new £100 million MOBeeb machine to tell us when we'll have the warmest foodbanks in Europe. To be fair to GFS Charts, they did predict a warm Halloween about a week or so out. Looks like increasingly cool from around Guy Fawkes night, according to GFS.
On 31 Oct 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Stephen Parker: Agreed, the visual delights of an open fire are hard to beat, though a glass -fronted stove with an airwash system comes pretty close.
I have both in my house, but from experience in my present home in 2010 and my previous house in the village during January 1982, when it hits -20 to 25C( and lower) for a week or more, then it's the stove for me, for total steady heat, lack of draughts and fuel efficiency. As the MIA progresses the stove and I are going to cement our beautiful friendship, especiallly during power cuts when I will be able to cook on it.
SUE( N Ireland): I have experience masonry stoves in Fennoscandia and Alaska and they're great. However if you go for a metal stove, you have the option of taking it with you if you move to another property
On 31 Oct 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. 22 degs. Yes, you read that correctly, 22 degs. It is toasty warm here in East Berks. Slightly hazy but blue skies and gorgeous - true Indian Summer day. I know it is about to come to an end but the couple of days of really warm & sunny weather we've had this week have been such a treat. :-)
On 31 Oct 2014, Alister wrote:
Any new installation requires a carbon monoxide (CO) alarm. I would have any CO alarm hard wired into all other smoke and heat alarms in a house - if one triggers it sets the others off too. Retrofit standalone battery units are OK but best if all are interlinked, either hard wired to each other or with RF link.
On 31 Oct 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Mild humid overcast drizzle at times yesterday and similar state of play today - the drizzle at present, some increase in wind I heard in the early hours, 16 deg. Now @ 11.39 a.m and a little breezy. Really looking forward to Nov forecast, was getting some wood prep'd yesterday and also got some food into empty cuboards for winter, not because I believe the headlines but it's just easier to be prepared when you like in the country, I am secretly hoping as always though for some snow this winter :P
On 31 Oct 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:
Thanks all for comms on stoves etc. All safety points taken on board. However i wont be building anything as no skills that way, but good for ideas in order to get professional in. I do like the idea of a brick surround, in that it will give out heat for longer. Anyhow, weather: so warm last night it was still 16 deg at 8pm at night. I see on Iceagenow loads of articles still about early and heavy snowfall in the northern hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how this winter pans out.
On 31 Oct 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub)g wrote:
Ron Greer is correct. The correct height of the chimney and the air flow at that height of the house / trees around the house are extremely important for making sure the fire draws correctly and sends up smoke and fumes to be dispersed into the atmosphere. We had our cracked chimney partially rebuilt in September. My husband was worried that it was slightly shorter than before and that the smoke would not clear the chimney pot and air circulation created by the trees. When I lit it last saturday I had smoke everywhere - alarms going off- it would not draw. I started to panic thinking the chimney was too short. next day husband opened the top of the burner and found cement, bits of old brick, sand etc had dropped down and blocked the curve at the bottom of the pipe. Cleaned it out and it draws perfectly. As Ron says - get a qualified builder/ heat engineer to check and install it. This is not a DIY job. AND INSTALL A PERMANENTLY CONNECTED SMOKE ALARM. - cannot emphasize that enough.
On 31 Oct 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Thunderstorm over Christchurch NZ this afternoon http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/10685739/Lightning-hail-sweep-Port-Hills. Also NZ Met Service prediction for a cooler November. I hope they are correct as far as rainfall is concerned as we've had a very dry month in the Nelson/ Tasman region and do need some spring rain
On 31 Oct 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Re saskia and your masonry stove.Although i have gas central heating and hot water, i love an open fire and i light it at the slightest excuse!. My house was built in the 50's, so the open fire also heats the hot water, boy does it get hot. The difference the fire makes even the next day is amazing. The fire if you like is in the centre of the house, all the brickwork heats up, as does the hot water system linked to the tank upstairs, so heat seeps into the house for at least 24 hours.
No reason a clever girl like you cant build a first class one. The beauty and real benefit of the net,all that knowledge at your disposal
On 31 Oct 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Sue - Glad to be of service ;-) / @Steve & Ron - The warning is, of course, to the point but the only time a wood stove is dangerous is when it's not burning well, as in it being tempered too much and gases cannot escape out of the flue or (as Paddy pointed out) it being stoked too hot. And have you ever considered that every day gas hobs are possibly more dangerous, for that matter? Not even a flue is used there, all the residual poisonous gas is released straight into your kitchen. A Russian stove - if built correctly - is so efficient that emissions are very low. Of course it's always advisable to read up on matters and become informed about things, but I agree with Paddy that the best way to learn about these matters is to dig right into it. Personally I've gotten so intrigued that I am now in the process of making plans to convert an antique cooking stove into a semi-masonry stove. Sketch-Up and I have become close buddies. ;-)
On 30 Oct 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, drizzle which continued on & off until about 10.30, temp rising to 12˚ & feeling mild in the S - SE'ly light breeze. Still 12˚ at 10pm. Still flowers around the place, if somewhat bedraggled looking. == Re stoves: I grew up with them, we have 5 of them around our various buildings, the only thing that would worry me is a stove or pipe getting red hot & producing carbon monoxide, that's what people used to die of in the old days before twin walled stove pipes. They also died from house fires caused by stoves, so it does pay to be careful, and you're right, Steve & Ron, to point out that the appropriate set of skills is required to install, let alone build a stove. Nevertheless, if you want to learn about such things you need to start somewhere & there is nothing quite as character building as getting your hands dirty.
On 30 Oct 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
STEVE: you are correct about the safety of stoves. It's best to have them and the chimneys installed by a HEATAS quallified agent and thereafter to make sure that the flue pipe remains sealed and the door seals replaced now and again.
Petrocoke should never be used as fuel.
On 30 Oct 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
The Green Blob BBC continues with the propaganda
Matt McGrath again "only following orders"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29803811
On 30 Oct 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
These home made burners look like a accident waiting to happen, bear in mind that wood stoves give off gasses that can kill if not vented correctly so only have a go if you have the right skills and stay safe don,t want you all burning your houses down or gassing the family.
Nice and warm here in dorset with a threat of sun.
On 30 Oct 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:
Saskia great sites! Thank you so much, I am inspired. I have long been aware that the size of our house/how we heat our homes now is vastly inferior to how it used to be done. We have too many large rooms and rely on oil fired central heating. In the next few decades we might all be in for a rethink.
On 30 Oct 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Our dry cool morning turned into a mild drizzly afternoon..Today 13 deg. Mild overcast n' high humidity..
On 30 Oct 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/josh-snails-pace-2c.jpg
a very good cartoon by josh on whats up with that site . Link above, Warm muggy and a thick mist yesterday, he he sounds like a description of the MO.
On 30 Oct 2014, occasionally David wrote:
Newsnight is Sesame Street for grownups. Forget the BBC as a source of anything other than lies, spin and misrepresentation. The BBC began its life as "the voice of Empire" (a propaganda engine). Nothing has changed. It's hard to admit that a source you've relied on and looked to, for years, has been lying to you and leading you up the garden path. But that is the truth of it.
On 29 Oct 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Frosty alright this morning, though not as much as I had thought, 3˚C at 7.30 but many shelterd parts of the farm were white, including any bare soil in the garden. Beautiful sunny day, real high pressure weather, max temp 9˚, back down to 6˚ by 10pm. MO saying we'll get a good soaking tomorrow morning, but I wonder whether the High over the N Sea will not hold this at bay. == Saskia, excellent links - should inspire you, Sue H!
On 29 Oct 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Oh yes what a disgrace and Piers always said those supercomputers will fail.I sometimes run computer models and cannot stress enough of how Unreliable they are after 3 days ahead.It is clear computers (never mind how expensive they are) cannot forecast long range weather.How many times do you watch the countryfile weather forecast on a Sunday evening and hear the term used by forecasters (THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTANTY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK) Its nearly every week now One final comment regarding the BBC newsnight (nickname spinight) about CO2 causing more ice in the Antarctic WHAT!!!! that cannot be right Al Gore said the Polar Ice caps would have all gone by 2013!!!!
On 29 Oct 2014, Sandy Reid wrote:
How about a wee story?
A tourist visiting the Scottish highlands spotted a large round stone on top of a fence post and asked a local Lady why it was there. She said " Oh thats just for the weather " Puzzled the tourist asked what she meant.
She replied "When the stone is we,t its raining. When its dry. its no raining, And when its on the ground. its blawin a gale"
This just made me chuckle and think of the BBC weather and climate blethers. Good advice from Ron Greer on woodburners. Enjoying the sharp bright day here in Perthshire I hope.
On 29 Oct 2014, danny wrote:
So here we go again, not £40 MIL this time, but £97 Million,
the MET O BBC what a truly criminal messed up bunch of common purpose agents this
shower of **** and their pile of fresh computer really are.
I have never known them to get the weather right more than twice in a week and that,s stretching it.. BBC =ROTTEN TO THE CORE. GO AND WHISTLE FOR YOUR TV LICENCE..
On 29 Oct 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:
Ron and Paddy: Thanks, that was just the info i was looking for. Done a bit of research online, but its good to hear it from people who actually have a stove. We live in the country and have a very small substation near us. the last time there were power cuts we were off for three days, but our small enclave was the last to be connected and we were at the bottom of a very long queue. Weather: frost this morning, sunny and bright now. yesterday it was very wet but 15 degrees until lunchtime. Once it cleared temps fell to 8 degrees and 4 degrees by 8pm.
On 29 Oct 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Thanks for the warm welcome backs, everybody ;-) Quick inbetween-things-update: rainy today, almost no wind, overcast skies. As for ENERGY PROBS: yes, there will be energy shortages this winter, and the one after, and so on. It almost seems as if there's a hidden agenda to either subdue, mute or otherwise 'cancel out' ordinary folk by any means possible. Whatever may be the case, you can at least make sure you're warm this winter. Here's a few links that might help out, even for those with little or no money.
http://bit.ly/10ysQwh Cheap, easy and a nifty 3D model on the site.
http://bit.ly/1rSuJKS Small masonry stove, I have more detailed plans for those interested.
http://bit.ly/1rzE7lm For more experienced DIY masons; check the image gallery!
http://bit.ly/1p0E33P More info on Russian stoves and converting fireplaces.
http://bit.ly/1wCA4tZ Yet more info.
http://bit.ly/1wcEyIH Very detailed PDF wrt reconstruction of large masonry stove.
And there's Google and YouTube, of cour
On 29 Oct 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
On Newsnight they 'explained' that global WARMING is behind record ice in Antartica despite is going against their predictions for what they said would happen. So either way they have no skill. Be prepared if you watch the newsnight piece for the usual propaganda tone- 'we know what we are doing'we can explain it all and nothing needs to change its all co2 etc'
On 29 Oct 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The rain eased off by early afternoon and temps dropped fast, a clear starry night and air frost overnight, no grass frost this morn. here & temp. was 9deg. @ 8.45 a.m though felt colder, overcast today but dry..
On 29 Oct 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Well it was another scorcher yesterday at 20 degs again. I had the day off & spent it in the garden with a whole load of children hacking at pumpkins. I swear we all have a bit of colour in our cheeks from being out all day - it was the kind of Indian Summer day I'd been hoping for. As a taxpayer, I shall be watching the outcome from the new MO exceedingly expensive super-computer with great interest! Seems like a breath-taking amount of money to be spending. Anyhow, back to the weather, overcast & grey again today with some rain. Still mild at 13 degs and tomorrow & Friday look like they should be dry & sunny again. Always a result to get good weather for half-term.
On 29 Oct 2014, Sue (ROI) wrote:
First frozen windscreen of the season!
Yes Gerry I agree if fossil fuel power station continue to shut down we will be in real trouble..Britain has massive fossil fuel resources-I just can't understand how we've allowed ourselves to be bullied for so long and it's getting worse.
The UK is the major source of oil and natural gas for Ireland. It's piped in from Moffat directly to Dublin and is the most important fuel for electricity generation in Ireland, let's hope also Vladimir Putin plays fair this winter too!
On 29 Oct 2014, Lorraine Lister wrote:
Some wild stormy weather around NZ today in the second day of the R4 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10673293/Storms-clear-north-but-more-rain-wind-on-way. Windy with some rain where we are but fortunately no thunder or hail.
On 29 Oct 2014, Geoff Hood Sub 45d wrote:
Is there anyway of working out whether your QV4 and QV5 high quake period relates to a spreading plate volcanco like the current Hawaiian eruption or shield volcanoes or those on sub-ductve lplates those of the west coast of the USA or Canaries~~~ i want to spend a few weeks in fuertenventura LOL
On 28 Oct 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The winter power shortage story is an ignorant scare story based on misreading the information from National Grid - or more accurately not reading the 66 page report. The figure quoted is a very worse case scenario that the odds of occurring are 100s to one. The reality is that there is plenty of back up capacity, some of which doesn't appear in regularly quoted figures. If they keep on with their deluded plan to remove fossil fuel from our energy supply then in future winters...who knows.
On 28 Oct 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
13˚C at 7.30 and it rained all morning, though not as heavily as could have been expected from MO's forecast. As the Low passed across the country, the wind turned into the NW and there was a sharp temperature drop around 9.30am. By 2pm the sky was clearing and we had some late sunshine and a clear starry evening and - frost, at last. By 10pm the thermometer read 1˚C and the roof of our car was white under a beautiful starry sky. We'll see by tomorrow morning how severe it will be, nasturtium leaves are a very good indicator of frost as they cannot stand any. == Re keeping warm: we recently bought a Chinese pot bellied multi fuel stove for about £260, not sure of the make at the minute, and it is unbelievably efficient if slightly ungainly looking. You can't see much of the fire but it keeps you very warm and has a flat top for a pot.
On 28 Oct 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
Re. the MO/Beeb's new toy: it will be a wonder of our age for sure but when they have fed it their daft warmist rubbish it will fail just as much as the old one. A lot of short-range forecasters use GFS and that improved slowly to a quite impressive standard about 3 years ago. Now it (and they) are rubbish - even hours ahead sometimes. Methinks that was fed also with some trendy nonsense about that time. (Typing this while holding my breath to act sustainably and reduce my carbon emissions)
On 28 Oct 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
SUE H (Ireland) Well, with a record warm Hallloween due, you won't need much heating in the short term, but for when things cool off I would recommend converting your open fire to a free-standing mullti-fuel stove of at least 6kW that is NOT purely a woodburner and is NOT connected to a central heating system and has a FLAT top you can put cooking pots/kettles on. A multi-fuel allows you to burn conifer wood that would be too sparky for an open fire, old floorboards, old garden sheds etc. I use that Board Na Monadh peats briquettes too and it's great. You can also burn coal too. If burning wood make sure its DRY and not fresh green newly cut stuff ( the exception being Ash trees) What your open fire consumed in an evening will last you all day with a stove. If you like the sight of flames then you can get version with fireglass doors.
On 28 Oct 2014, Man Bearpig wrote:
Well, according to the BBC with this new tool, they can predict the weather into the next century. So they will only need to run it once every hundred years.
I wonder what the carbon footprint is for the 140 ton 480,000 processor unit ??
Anyone want to ask them ?
On 28 Oct 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) wrote:
I see I wasn't the only one who choked on the morning coffee then! 97 million!!!! Its a scandal. And who paid for it then? What happens to the old super de duper computer, what was wrong with it,(well obviously we know), I dare say they got rid of it cos it kept telling them temps are going down not up like they expect and they think its faulty. Still, after that little nugget on the BBC, they then slipped it that the National Grid has only 5% of a backup for the whole of the country and we could be looking at blackouts this winter. Aaaagh!!!! This gov drives me mad. On that note do any of the readers have any good suggestions for backup plans for heat/light and especially cooking this winter and into the future? We rely totally on electric for everything, although we do have an open fire and backup generator which runs on petrol. However, that will only work if we can get a steady supply of petrol....
On 28 Oct 2014, Rob wrote:
RE MO new computer. I see they are still going with the line that temps will rise 3 to 4 deg. if we carry on as we are. So how will they explain the MIA cooling when it really kicks in?
On 28 Oct 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
So the MO are going to build a £97m computer that is going to be really accurate. So what happened to the super duper £40m computer a MO scientist / forecaster told me at a conference in Feb 2013 that they were using, was so brilliantly accurate at forecasting 3 - 5 days in advance. Time to bang your head against the wall MO!
On 28 Oct 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
WA doing it wrong. All you need is £100m for a supercomputer and THEN you will have the truth.
On 28 Oct 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The heavy rain woke me up around 7 a.m has been mostly constant since then switching between torrential downpours and lighter constant rain, 15 deg. @ 10 a.m High humidity and very dark skies at times looking like it could thunder, a small rumble in the distance about half hour ago..a fair amount of water on the roads and garden to wet to play today..
On 28 Oct 2014, Michael - 75 day sub wrote:
So nearly 100 million for a computer that can't support the met office for forecasting more than 3 days ahead. My money is better spent on weather action and Piers. Also isn't it a contradiction in terms that a computer requiring all that power and resource is actually advising us our climate is changing because of itself? I can see a BSOD happening.
On 28 Oct 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Another huge chunk of our tax dollars being, well, spent? >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29789208 << Its a disgrace, and anyone working for the Met Office should be well and truly ashamed!
On 27 Oct 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
SW wind picked up again here a bit this eve. From breezy to more blustery with the odd gust or 2, wind only around 40 kph but sounds nice nonetheless, No rain here as yet though met.ie have a Yellow rain warning up for the West atlantic coastal counties with the rain spreading across the country..
On 27 Oct 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
(Also posted on old blog, obsessed with seeing myself in print :-) 13˚C at 7.30, rising to 16˚, cloudy all day in a strong SW wind with intermittent light rain around midday, still 13˚ by 10pm. Really warm, though we can't match Nigella's 20˚, we're too far north and have to contend with the Lows held at bay by the continental High; shouldn't complain when I see how much rain has fallen in the West in the last few days. It's still out west but MO is forecasting very wet here for tomorrow, I wonder though whether it'll get here or still be blocked; still R4 for the next couple of days. One advantage of the relatively warm weather we've had this month is that we haven't had to light our wood stove yet, which we normally do around 16th Oct.
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