On 22 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Today we had a sandwich of fog with brilliant sunshine filling! Quite cool with 13˚C at 7.30 but when the haar burnt off the sun got quite hot and temp rose to 23˚ max - would have been hotter I'm sure but for the constant SE'ly sea breeze, which as it happens kept us nice and cool here in the coastal strip. Saskia, I can't say that the sun feels less hot with us, in shelter from the wind it is pretty scorching for our latitude; people regularly get burnt because the sea breeze makes it feel cooler, but the sun still beats down at the same intensity. After a hot weekend in spring, if you have a walk in town you will see many human lobsters walking around, well grilled :-); sunhine is in such short supply with us that we take every chance to strip off & cook. Still 14˚ at 10pm tonight.
On 22 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter (Forecast gaffer) wrote:
NIGELLA+ALL Yes We, WeatherAction, still might do a subscribers only Comm on this Double R5 in which of course we expect standard Met will suffer because of the double R5 but we also might get Cut Off High tendencies or changes in resistance of Continental High to general Atlantic Low attack. Our general prog of Continent High and attack giving HOT West Europe has been correct. High has been firmer/edged more West than we expected at times so warmer. In present period it is dangerous to assume MO right even 1d ahead --- RICHARD BRILL now I suggest you ask them (i) If MO are the best why did they back-off Roger Harrabin's BBC Forecast competition as soon as we WeatherAction said we wanted to take part, (ii) In the light of their record of failure at long range forecasting & WeatherAction proven success (see WeatherAction.com/forecasts/accuracy) would they care to clarify what they think they are best at +admit WeatherAction is better than them on, eg, all scales beyond 10d ahead!
On 22 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Thank you Piers - I think I understand. :-)
On 22 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
lol meto reinstalled the comments
On 22 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
lol Meto put up some recruitment vids on youtube where they self call themselves the best in forecasting' so i wrote a note asking people to compare 5 day forecast versus actual for 6 months and see the truth of that and their failure to predict the winter floods when others did When i checked later they had disabled the comments.lol. They don't want the truth. I found the claims in this video heavy on the lifestyle and little on their usefulness of end product ie forecasts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XchnOJKk9uM
On 22 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter wrote:
THANKS ALL --- SASKIA handy report our Euro forecast had 18-21st South half Netherlands Dry-Hot-Sunny and North half with thundery showers which you got as well as the heat. N/S boundary unclear so we are pleased with foreacast --- THUNDER+ ANIMALS: In my experience cats do not like thunder and go into hiding under beds etc when it is near / overhead. MARIA, NIGELLA Thanks for info. Note we are now in a ~transition from one period to another and just in start of R5 so cannot conclude much from detailed obs. NIGELLA note our forecasts you have are not short range detailed foreacasts and all dates and graphs are +/-1d. in July some thunder even intense from normal heat convection is normal even in quieter R periods. If there is also R5,R4 (or possR3) then prolonged thunderstorms joining up, notably powerful lightning, large hail, strong local winds+turbulence and tornado devleopments are all much more possible and likley, & unlikely in quiet R. Hence Mo Underfc 17/18, Over Fc 19th.
On 22 Jul 2014, Lewis (Summer Special Sub) wrote:
Piers and WA. Without giving away your 30d and 45d forecast 22-26th July, I must query whether it is still valid and correct - given the BBC and METO is forecasting a dry, hot, sunny and glorious week for much of the UK. It is now the school holidays and many families will be using your forecast to inform their days out.
On 22 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
So muggy here had some large drops of rain this morning but nothing constant, the sky getting a lil darker by deg. and I feel awful, headache dizzy almost like a hangover! with like Saskia mentioned a feeling of no oxygen, need a bloomin proper Big storm..
can't wait till the humidity eases and no sign of met o sunny spells as yet either & forecasts changing just slightly daily with a hint of uncertainty!-) Bob glad you noticed that too re: quiet & cat behaviour it is interesting to observe....
On 22 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Another scorcher here in East Berks. Currently wall to wall blue skies and 23 degs at 10am. I would say that the weather has been hotter & drier so far in July than I anticipated from the forecast - but I'm not always sure I read the forecasts correctly. I've got a bit confused with the Rs. So there was no R for 18-21 but there was some very severe weather on 18th & 19th & now there seems to be an R but it looks like there is a high pressure holding off anything very exciting - well other than glorious sunshine. Easily confused me!
On 22 Jul 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
@Craig M - It has been VERY hot since the 17th! Temps regularly close to or above 30C and little to no wind from sea. Very different from the usual scenario in which the sea wind provides us with a good 5C cooler air. Sunday evening we had a light thunderstorm, all other storms passed us by at just a few kms. Sunday night it also started raining, which lasted throughout the night and gave us a bit of relief. The soil is extremely dry, wind predominantly from the NE/E. Having all doors and windows open during the night and tightly shutting windows and drawing blinds - I put up some aluminum insulation rolls across the upstairs windows - early in the morning is the only way to stay comfortable. We manage to stay under 25C inside (uninsulated house). Btw, despite it being so hot, the sun does NOT burn us. Anybody else notice that? As well as there seeming to be less oxygen?
On 22 Jul 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
Big-ish low materialised out west yesterday on the charts with many fronts. At first the MOBeeb and others who use GFS had it marching onward to affect us but today they mostly show pressure charts with it stopping and filling this week while a high from scandanavia pushes over us - they say hot calm, dry. Hmmmm! we will see!
On 22 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
18-21 July 2014 Forecast Review - if one assumes the spanish thunderstorms were part of the previous forecast [plus one day] then " dry fine and quite warm" since then pretty much covers it for the period. so 1.0 which gives a cumulative of 5.0 out of 6 for July. After 2 wet cold summers its nice to have a proper summer in uk :) Not so good for other parts of the world from the news reports. The Uk might be hot but world average is probably cold which is why the hockeystickers probably aren't making more of it?
On 22 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Maria - yes, it's quiet here too, and our cat is doing the same thing you described. Interesting....
On 22 Jul 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
...cont...
So possibilities of throwning up a plume of heat was highlighted which is quite normal for July as the Atlantic lows in west ((anti-clockwise rotation)) pull up heat/humidity from Spain/Africa and we get firecrackers..not always, but when the jetstream is dipped south it helps. It creates ripples of unstable air in the atmosphere. Piers (below) mentions heat clipping east England. The heat has been in the east (Netherlands having proper heat) +low pressure to our west = long convergence of cold+warm = storm potential for the forecast sequence which would go....shhh in next window. low did penetrate further east but floundered on the high in Scandinavia (uncertainty in the later forecast's was the easterly progress of the low) & yes a severe weather period did extend into the next window (unusual but always possible with heat) but did just..err..stop. in light of what I expected for the past week some TWO months ago, I ask is that useful for planning? I think so.
On 22 Jul 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
...cont...watch the jetstream for 16-21. Like our sun it's v quiet today. As per the two weather periods Piers identified in 40-70d, we go up then suddenly shh. 0 Sunspots were recorded on 17th & the sun had long coronal holes, tho' field lines were mostly blocked (wasn't an R5). Richard Holle over at the Talkshop said he believed the moon was the cause of heat plume... 'The declination of the moon crossed the equator headed North on the 16th, will be maximum extent North on the 23rd, I suggest this is a lunar tidal effect on the frontal boundaries in the area at the time' === http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/07/19/gravesend-32-3c-why-so-hot/comment-page-1/#comment-83759 ===
the pull of heat and storms fits that well (remember at its height the moon slows like the sun in the sky at midday or solstice, then goes down by larger degrees). Check Bob W's comms below for more on this...cont...
On 21 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gil... Re: doggy reactions to thunder.. If it`s of any help, our Westie growls and does little gruff barks after jet airliners have gone over. Just as the sound disappears to a distant rumble. Also distant thunder has the same effect. I guess his ancient instinct tells him to warn other dogs of possible very wet, possibly cold, energy sapping weather. When he was a small puppy a distant Ducati motorcycle could stimulate the same effect............... Look at Sat24 11.30pm I hope Italians like lightning!
On 21 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
could just be me but is anyone else thinking how still and quiet it is outside tonight also? animals ect..also our cat does this sit on the step looking out then back indoors back out routine when its like this.
On 21 Jul 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Hmm...the R4 of 15-17 was called by Piers back in late May in the 40-70d Key aspects forecast (Aug&Sept already available to subscribers). This was clearly followed by a quiet period. (18-21). Now for long term planning which is what WeatherAction are for...first part was 'wet and windy in most parts with hail, thunder and floods. SE less wet and less cool...Developments: Large deep dartboard Low heads from Atlantic towards Northern Ireland / North Britain and is largely blocked by higher pressure over Scandinavia and Continent. Low Greenland. Low does not pass through Scotland.'...
then followed by a quite solar period (NS F/Q)..."becoming dry fine and quite warm espec East Anglia...Low to West of Scotland fills somewhat and probably drifts South. High pressure France and Finland & N Sweden+Norway. Low Greenland Azores High pushed South. Becoming mostly slack."...cont...
On 21 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Status yellow warning issued 10.00 21/7/14, valid 22nd 00.01 - sat. 26th 23.59 very warm and humid this week with daytime temps reaching mid 20's in places, the nights will be very mild and close with lowest temps 15/16 deg. in many areas. ( The 00.01 and .59 bit made me chuckle ,-)
I read on another site that the dew point is around 20 deg from tomorrow aft. but also that it happens for a few days a year here so normal I guess, can't wait for Piers nxt forecast period :)
On 21 Jul 2014, Lorraine wrote:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=783809578337851&substory_index=0&id=100001264493374
Not sure if this will. Be ale to access this link of photo but on Saturday in a duration of ten minutes a thunderstorm caused monsoon rain which caused flooding. This amount of water has rarely been seen before in such a short space of time.
Guernsey channel isles
On 21 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Although we had a NW breeze all day, it wasn't cool, 16˚C again at 7.30, heating up pretty rapidly to 24˚ eventually, especially in the morning when there was less cloud cover than in the afternoon. Now at 10pm, the wind has changed into the SE as the Atlantic Low has edged slightly closer & the Continental High moved further north towards our shores, temp still 15˚. In vie of Piers' comment below I can now say that I'm waiting with bated breath to see what will transpire starting from tomorrow, certainly not a sausage of indication from MO 5 day jokecast. And yes, apart from a bit of rain and a few rumbles of thunder the previous 18-21 No Special Factors/Quiet period has been exactly that here.
On 21 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
ALL - SUPERB QUALITY POSTS THANK YOU. --- SAGA of MetO Over forecast of 19th re Heathrow. The MetO Film (Thanks Richard East Mids) moves too fast for many computers to also see timings (low res freeze frames) but as Craig explains it confirms that thunderstorms basically held East on 19th afternoon (and were favoured where WeatherAction forecast showed most warmth for the period). The vid reinforces our MO 'Over-forecast' (see what Telegraph reminds us everyone was told to expect) -- WHAT NEXT ALL? LOOK OUT 22-26th is double R5 (typo in my post below which said 23-26) so do NOT expect MetO to be right even one day ahead - see how they missed the major thunder hits 17/18 still in R4+/-1d from 1d ahead: TONY SUB that maybe answers your question. We do NOT normally give away much/any forecast info because that is not fair to people who have paid apart from not helping business. More 'CROWD-FUNDING' & we could give away more?? This will be a VERY interesting period Sun-wide & World-wide!
On 21 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Also a few light showers this morning!
On 21 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
As per Piers forecast NSF /Q cloudy all day here, only mild due to humidity, 21 deg earlier 17 now @ 20.35 pm
met had forecast sunny intervals but none for our area today a fairly bland quiet kinda day ...
On 21 Jul 2014, tony sub wrote:
was just wondering how the 3 day fcast from 22nd is going.without giving too much away its seems way off track according to my forecast purchased .anyone in the know ?? thx for any possible explantion
On 21 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350 sub, Berks) wrote:
Some recent stories on the news blog; 1) What's wrong with the BBC Horizon program? Jaime Jessop with an excellent look at the assumptions === http://bit.ly/1p2H3pS === 2) Heatwave in Netherlands (Saskia - how's it been in Friesland?) === http://bit.ly/1n5BFpl === 3) Lamb and the Holocene - warm now don't make me laugh ===
=== http://bit.ly/1nuHb5W === Green hate - Ex Secretary of State Owen Patterson recieved more deatg threats from Greens than when he was secretary of state for Northern Ireland! !! A devastating piece and unusual for someone just out of office to be so blunt about the 'green blob' === http://bit.ly/1zY1M6O === and Richard's vid from the MetO is up - watch Heathrow area closely.
On 21 Jul 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Are the last two periods in July still on track? - 22nd onwards? Timing slightly out for this neck of the woods. But we did get a deluge Friday night with Thunder & Lightning. Can someone explain why we refer to storms with Thunder and Lightning and not the other way around- when the lightning comes first followed by the bang - if I am correct. Yesterday I heard grumbling thunder in the distance as did the dog. Solved that problem by putting on the radio AND doing the hoovering at the same time. Is there a scientific reason why dogs especially hate these storms, whereas the horse and pony couldn't give a toss.
On 21 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Gav vids describes a pattern in cet of 14 months cooler than average alternating with 14 months hotter and if so the current 14 months hotter will end in sept. If this pattern continues and we get 14 months cooler from sept then it will demonstrate co2 is not the driver of temps.. . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM8sahR6MXQ
On 21 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
meto provide their own proof of lightning over 17th-19th. if you play it and watch the ticker at the top its pretty clear whats happening on 19th near heathrow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4I9Bb8F6yc
On 21 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Solar Rules: http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/07/new-paper-finds-significantly-more.html where the authors find "low levels of solar activity promote frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events in the eastern North Atlantic which modify the flow of Westerly winds leading to an increased frequency of cold winters in Europe" [and the US], i.e. ascribing jet stream dips and the polar vortex to solar activity, not global warming as alarmists have claimed. So peer-review supports Piers' view of solar influences. It looks like this "All Quiet" solar period is being noticed all over the world. Perhaps people will notice as well when those active regions roll into view in a few weeks and all solar indices, and the weather here response by going "up" too. Every morning since solar dropped off, the US heat index temps have also progressively dropped off. There isn't as much heat carryover from evening to morning as there was a few weeks ago when the sun's face was more active.
On 21 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Sunday was a strange day on The Downs. Mainly overcast and bright with a fresh breeze to keep the temp down. On the occasions that the sun broke through is was soon heating up. Around early evening we caught the edge of a storm moving north to south. Brief rain, couple of cracks of thunder and that was it. Humid throughout. I feel there should be some sympathy for BAA as like the R&A they rely on the Met being competent. Consider if they had ignored the warning and it turned out to be true. They would get some serious criticism. Hopefully they will be having words with the Met as to why they were so wrong. Overcast but bright in London so far. Humid again.
On 21 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
cont...this is so around the time of the Bocastle flood. I remember it well as I got soaked right through in afew seconds running full pelt just 30m to a bus shelter. Not surprising as the equivalent hourly rainfall was 76mm/hour!!! / Charles not sure it was safety === "A Heathrow spokeswoman said: "During thunderstorms the number of aircraft that can take off and land each hour is reduced...In a statement, British Airways said: "The forecast of poor weather has meant that we have agreed with Heathrow Airport and other airlines who use the airport to make some proactive flight cancellations on Saturday afternoon. === http://news.sky.com/story/1303952/heathrow-cancels-flights-as-storms-forecast === cancelled flights inc parague, madrid & dublin. Sounds that the decision was taken to preempt delays. Have read areport recently about H'row being over zealous with weather cancellations
On 21 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
In Piers new pdf I refer to Aug 04 - this is it "a violent thunderstorm was accompanied by an exceptionally heavy fall of rain. Estimates are that up to 1.5 inches (38mm) of rain fell in a half hour period a level that would normally be high for the whole of the month of July in London. The storm overwhelmed the existing water infrastructure and Thames Water was forced to pump untreated sewage into the Thames before it was forced onto residential streets through manhole covers. This has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of fish causing destruction to the local Thames eco-system that will take years to repair.The storm hit West London worst of all with reports of massive hailstones hitting Hammersmith reminiscent of a scene in the recently released film on global warming, 'The Day After Tomorrow.' In Hyde Park 3 teenage girls were reportedly hit by lightening with one having to be resuscitated by paramedics." http://www.chiswickw4.com/info/conroad13.htm
On 21 Jul 2014, John Taylor wrote:
From the Wiltshire Times...
"Wiltshire Fire and Rescue Service attended over 30 weather-related incidents on Saturday.
The service received over 100 calls as a severe storm swept over the county, with West Wiltshire particularly affected."
Here in South Wilts, we had storms early morning on the 18th and more severe storms on the 19th. The latter knocked out the power here from 1:30am to 8:30am.
On 21 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Has been humid & very hot from middle of last week. Friday afternoon & evening in London was sweltering, the hottest I have been in ages. Over 30 degs, watched the storm clouds move in from about 9 pm onwards. Heard thunder on & off through the night but nothing directly overhead until early hours of Saturday morning. Was overcast until mid afternoon but still very warm & humid. Sun came out Saturday afternoon & it was hot again at 28 degs. Sunday was sunshine & clouds, hot & humid again with top temp of 27. Feels fresher this morning. Judging from the posts of friends on Facebook who live in Essex & in N Wilts, we had a reasonably good weekend. Some really shocking damage from lightening strikes & flash floods in some areas.
On 21 Jul 2014, B.Spin wrote:
From the Daily Mail " Why does the BBC waste your money on so many weather forecasters?" Link here---
---http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2699451/Why-does-BBC-waste-money-weather-forecasters-One-forecast-week-dozen-different-faces-country.html ---
On 21 Jul 2014, Charles Butler wrote:
Craig. The decision to cancel flights was probably made by heathrow staff on Friday based on risk not certainty. In the event Heathrow has escaped the worst but the flight path into Heathrow from the west was affected for much of the day and this will have no doubt caused some delays. No doubt some passengers have been annoyed by the cancellations but safety must come first.
On 21 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Charles - no one is saying the Amber warning was not justified for some but by midday if not before on Saturday it was clear the Heathrow area was escaping. The storms were in a line going up from the west Country and the next lot were heading over to the east coast with the majority of the area. See the maps here === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/20/piers-corbyn-blasts-the-bbc-metoffice-for-incompetent-forecast/ === it was a stupid decision to ground flights for Heathrow even though it was proactive it was plainly wrong and makes us a laughing stock for what were isolated storms. Didthey proactively cancel flight on morn of 17/18th? Did they on 13th June for the line of storms that set many houses on fire? The Amber warning was for rain and for all Sat. That threat had changed on the day itself - it should have stayed yellow for threat of odd shower but Amber for clear skies?
On 21 Jul 2014, Nick, Berks wrote:
Richard, I agree that it seems to be rather difficult to get a fine-grained, quantitative representation of what has transpired. The MO site is especially poor in this respect, though does now report v. high rainfall at Norwich airport yesterday (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/), more graphically reported at http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/topic/weather/ (rainfall total for a slightly different timeframe). Yesterday's storms seem to have been very localised in parts of East Anglia whereas Saturday afternoon also saw localised storms in East Anglia and around Coventry area (http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/torrential-rain-wreaks-havoc-weekends-7461103). Consistent with what Charles has just reported it seems the SW more widely got much rain early Saturday morning e.g. 79 mm at Westonbirt, so some areas got hit very hard. Better reporting certainly needed.
On 21 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Raining @ 9.35 a.m 20 deg. and muggy, I feel that the Met are maybe giving a over optimistic overview of the weeks weather here this week relying on dew point being high...
On 21 Jul 2014, Charles Butler wrote:
If you take a look at the media reports from Saturday from around parts of the Midlands then there's plenty of evidence for the amber warning being justified with reports of house fires caused by lightning and drivers having to be rescued by the fire service from cars trapped in flood water. The warning specifically stated that in these convective situations not all areas are affected and some escape the showers. The warning appears justified. The heavens ceratinly opened for long periods in the part of Gloucestershire that I live.
On 21 Jul 2014, Independent weather wrote:
According to the many sites that I have read about want comes have record breaking wet winters. The winters the follow them were very cold. After 1914/15 wet winter, the winter 1916/17 was expectually cold according www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/weather_years_1910-19.htm like that of 1946/47 or 1962/63. The winter that followed 1994/95 which was 1995/96 was very cold with a complete reversal of weather patterns to northerlies and easterlies.
On 21 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the last 24hr measurements of rain have only 1 site with high rain, Shoeburyness (3 m) 29.8 mm , the next highest is 13mm then it tails off drastically. I have had heavy downpours at my location in the past but the local stations recorded little or no rain. This suggests the stations either do not record the rain, they are sited wrong or there is not enough to give an accurate picture. If you were to build averages from the data from the current weather stations i think you would end up with a picture of this summer no one would recognise. These averages if then used in models to predict would further compounded the false picture? Then taking the predictions from these models and presenting them to policy makers is likely to take people in the wrong direction? Also it would be possible to cherry pick which stations you chose in order to pick a view you wanted to present. Meto should use the cash to increase the weather stations to reduce the distortions in the results.
On 21 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
According to Dr Tony Phillips of NASA, the sun has been spotless, according to him "inactive" for 5 days in a row. Further down the page he tells us that a CME was seen billowing over the sun`s eastern limb on the 20th. Two CME`s can be seen, even on the still picture. So this is what the mainstream Newtonians think of as `an inactive sun` is it? >> http://spaceweather.com/ << Ironic name really; Dr NewTonyan physics`ist from the `No Apparent Solar Activity` administration.......... Lovely chilly breeze from around 11pm last night.....
On 21 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Given how the 5 day is computer driven then it seems in meto forecasting the model is god and so no one dares go against it even if they know its wrong If the model says close down Heathrow then that's what they do. If it says warmer winter then thats what they do despite knowing their forecasts have little statistical significance worse than random because of their co2 bias. 5 day churns out gibberish. Getting the forecast wrong is not the problem. Its the imperial handwaving away of anyone who suggests there is something wrong with the principles underlying their forecasts [despite their low accuracy] and can prove it with normal meteorological reasoning [no £30m supercomputer necessary]. Anyone who relies on MetO is blind more than 12hrs out and may even then even be misguided because the forecast follows blindly whatever the hockeystick model 'anticipates'. it won't change until politics out of forecasting but it seems Meto want 'more money' to make the weather fit their models?
On 21 Jul 2014, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THANK YOU ALL for superb obs +COMMS in this reader comm section some of which were put into PDF LINK ABOVE. MATTHEW thanks for your detailed monitoring+info below. To any rational observer it is clear what happened. In the 3 options view that any storm forecast is either OverCall, AboutRight or UnderCall then for MO 17/18 was UC &19th serious OC. WeatherAction was about right in both and that is from 5 weeks ahead rather than MO 1 or 2 days ahead. As you note they are unwilling to admit this blindingly obvious fact (even though some of TV forecasters implicitly admitted such) and now publish a sort of feeble cover-up. They and their trolls must be asked: MO-BBC ARE YOU SERIOUSLY SAYING THAT ~1mm of rain at Heathrow (see PDF) justified the cancellation of 20 flights?! TO not address this& instead give examples of Run Of TheMill isolated thunderstorms/ showers 100 miles away as justification is pathetic. NEXT! ALL WATCH 23-26th for MO serious UNDER-CALLS! NB WA Jul fc FREE WITH AUG 45d.
On 20 Jul 2014, Matthew wrote:
Seeing that so much area was covered by the Amber warning it seems pathetic the Met Office could only find 10 weather stations mostly in the same area which is hilly. The reason for the upgrade to an amber warning was the increase in likelihood of the event to likely. On the basis of there being so few areas proportionately it was very unlikely to happen and the Met office wouldn't even downgrade their warning for the South East despite my phone call to the help desk. Please see the link.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/07/20/rain-totals-for-19th-july-2014/
Surprise surprise they under predicted the storms of the early hours of the 18th. If they had listened to Piers they would have got it far more accurate.
On 20 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Nice enough day started overcast humid then sunny and quite warm. Nice BBQ fairly clear and 18 deg this eve...
On 20 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another half day of restful greyness, foggy, still, humid & warm, 16˚C at 7.30, some showers during the morning, brightening up after 2pm and getting to 24˚ - we've never yet surpassed that temp threshold this year; last year we actually had 30˚ on 9th July, that's an exception for us, of course. The afternoon got brighter all along and ended in a glorious evening - when the fog rolled in again off the sea and not a breath of wind, 17˚ at 9.30, quite magical.
On 20 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Nothing here in Bedfordshire but the lightning websites show thunder further east. This seems to take the usual pattern of forming in the late morning/afternoon as the temperature rises and fizzling out in the evening as the sun sets and temperature drops. This has been the general patttern this year - with the excepton of the storms of night of 17/18th which were more intense and also occured, uniquely for this year, at night.
On 20 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
There is lightning now this afternoon across the southwest US is an arc around Arizona, and all across from New Orleans to the Carolinas and Florida. As Piers said, right now MAJOR OPPRESSIVE HEATWAVE in Texas going northward, into Florida, and SW states. The moon now is 3 days aways from max dec angle north, and it looks like it's doing it's job of pulling warmer tropical air northwards into southern US, offsetting now the colder air that persisted in US for about 5-6 days since the solar "all quiet" started. Looking at http://www.solarham.net/farside.htm, I'd say we're in for low solar activity levels for about two weeks outside of coronal hole effluence. Looking at 3-month TSI http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png the max/min peaks for each of the last 3 solar 27 day rotations indicates a downward trend in solar activity energy. See http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=18&month=07&year=2014
On 20 Jul 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
When mother nature does rear she does in style ,looks like east anglia ,Norwich ,but mainly Canvey,Southend on sea suffered today flash floods ,lightning ,maybe they got the 17-18th storm tail late on them ,i do feel for people when this happens ,no one predicted it and esp the useless BBC computer ,they might as well use a abacus lol.................. http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/gallery_spectacular_storms_light_up_the_region_1_3691160
On 20 Jul 2014, GerryB S Essex (sub) wrote:
Sun quiet weather not, have had thunderstorm for last hour with continous lightning and torrential rain, monsoon like for at least 10 minutes. Now quietened BUT acc to real time lightening another cell en route.
Certainly a more intense storm than last Friday.
On 20 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Looks like your side of the world got all the thunder and lightning this time out of that last high-speed solar wind gust, when speeds ramped up from around 300km/s to over 450km/s during Piers' R4 last week. USA forecast spot on currently. The Sun is quiet and has been for several days, SSN=27, SF=86, Xray=floor. From http://www.spaceweather.com/ , "THE "ALL QUIET EVENT": For the 5th day in a row, solar activity is extremely low. Compared to the beginning of July, when sunspots were abundant, the sun's global X-ray output has dropped by a factor of ten. Moreover, on July 17th the sunspot number fell all the way to zero. We call it "the All Quiet Event." "Before July 17, 2014, the previous spotless day was August 14, 2011, a gap of nearly 3 years." "Almost anything is possible because, as one pundit observes, "you just can't predict the sun." That's from Dr. Tony Phillips of NASA. Dr. Phillips could've subscribed to find out how very well Piers predicted the solar activity in July.
On 20 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
We got short duration thunder storms in the early hours of Friday morning and Saturday morning but neither woke me. There have been heavy showers but short lived including some associated lightning Saturday afternoon for about 20 minutes in Sheffield. Now back to warmth and humidity; the humidity making it seem much warmer than it really is. Heatwave? Not around here Mr Met`!
On 20 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
"MO donkey tail computer" .... hehehehe nice one Paddy!
On 20 Jul 2014, Christine Gaskill wrote:
What a beautiful, slightly too hot day (about 29 degrees), yesterday (19th) turned out to be. We had an outdoor party planned, with about 30 friends and had feared the worst. There were some grey clouds through the morning, which tried to drizzle, until about 2.00pm, they then cleared for a most amazing day and evening. For good weather, the Hertfordshire Chilterns were definitely the place to be.
On 20 Jul 2014, John Planet wrote:
I been think of the polar vortex and the reason for the type of winter we had last year. Our winter was very mild last year because of the position the polar vortex was to the north west of us. This put us on the warm side of it. because south west winds flowed to the southeast of the vortex and we were in the south east of it.
What would happen if the polar vortex shifted and got displaced in the Bay of Biscay. Would this start to pull winds from the east and bring in a lot of bitterly cold air to us. What if it shifted to Scandinava and pull cold winds from the north. Is it the position of the polar vortex determines what sort of winter we have
On 20 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Reading the piece above re lack of storm activity outside of an R period, so if I'm understanding correctly the weather being driven it's like when no solar effects present the car engine needs a jump start to drive ie battery partly flat and when solar factors R5 R4/3 are present it all sparks off the engine roars allows change of gear and drives forth so to speak? Then would the speed & location at which it (the weather fronts) move forth be attributed to other factors ie jet stream wind ect.? Hope I'm making sense lol!
On 20 Jul 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Winter finally arrived in NZ this past week with much colder temps and looks like continuing this coming week which could be an interesting one. Not one word of coverage in our warmist news media about your thunder storms in the UK or any other extreme event in the northern hemisphere over the past few weeks.
On 20 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Rain most of Sat sometimes heavy officially 6mm . Even the slugs came out which i haven't seen them for weeks. Very little if any wind so the rain just sat there till 2pm when a breeze came and the rain moved on. From watching the predictions from the official black box models over some time it should be apparent to anyone that there is consistent errors in them both for short range and long range. It might be people are habituated to look at something on a screen and 'believe it real' when actually its more like the hollywoodisation of history. So they watch the predictions of storm lines or whatever it might be and think it real so 'lets prepare for it'. In march the models were saying June would be a wet cold washout. It turned out baking and dry. That has been their consistent long range forecast for most months and each time its wrong. Getting things wrong is not the problem. Its ones attitude to discovering why and with an open mind that leads to progress in science.
On 19 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Grey is very restful, you know, for that's what it's been all day today. Dry start, 16˚C at 7.30, feeling humid & mild, SE breeze. Rain on and off between 9.30 and midday, some of it very heavy in short bursts, 3 claps of distant thunder just after 11 and that was our show for today. It got to 18˚ max, which was fine, still feels summery and the rain will have done the garden crops & the grass a power of good - though it was not nearly as much as the MO donkey tail computer predicted, glad I watered the trees last night. They still have a yellow rain warning out for tomorrow but their local forecast for Aberdeen contradicts that. Still 16˚ at 10pm and feeling close & humid in the fog.
On 19 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subs) wrote:
Piers this wasn't over called by MO (and al the others) , it was utter fail! Looking at Blitzortung as at 21.53 on 19 July there is a large thunderstorm heading into the North Sea from Belgium but the UK is lightning free other than a handful of strikes a while back in the Thames estuary area. I suspected all along that we were being "trolled" by them as we had moved from R4 to NSF/Q.
On 19 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subs) wrote:
Piers this wasn't over called by MO (and al the others) , it was utter fail! Looking at Blitzortung as at 21.53 on 19 July there is a large thunderstorm heading into the North Sea from Belgium but the UK is lightning free other than a handful of strikes a while back in the Thames estuary area. I suspected all along that we were being "trolled" by them as we had moved from R4 to NSF/Q.
On 19 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (sub) wrote:
Meto Fail. Still have an orange warning up. All we have had is a hot humid day with early drizzle clearing. A massive er.. 1.9mm since midnight. Clearly solar factors intervened and expecting such activity in a NSF/Q period was never on. Like any other forecaster Piers does not always get it right. However even when Piers does get his forecast wholly wrong, the MSM short term forecast will be modulated by piers R factors. When was the last time a Piers high R forecast failed? His forecasts are worth it just for that. I'm sure the people who had their flights at Heathrow cancelled based on meto doom forecasts are very happy as they sit in the departure lounge in sunshine.
On 19 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
And so by 1600 the day's play at The Open ended. Nobody was fried by lightning and the forecast was wrong. No criticism of the R&A for doing what they did as they believed the forecasters were competent. So linking back to the so-called 'smart' flood control scheme - it will only be as good as the forecasts it uses. By the way, if anybody needs a desalination plant the Australians have got some spare that the likes of Flannery urged them to build due to global warming derived drought. Yes, you guessed - the rains came in super-abundance soon after. Patches of light cloud and the sun beaming down with much heat here on The Downs - forecast running to plan. Looking forward to next week's events. Tip for when out on the golf course in bad weather - take your 1 iron out and hold it as high as you can. Not even God can hit a 1 iron. (stolen from BBC golf coverage)
On 19 Jul 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
Very interesting "Cloud Lab" TV show - saw it on a recording last night. At the end they flew their instrument-laden airship into polluted clouds and compared their properties with cleaner ones. The conclusion was that polluted clouds are denser and tend to shield us more from solar heating. So before the industrial revolution we had storms of a certain strength - after that we supressed them somewhat, and then in recent years with many countries having clean air acts, vehicles and industries getting greener we are seeing a return to the old norm. In living memory of course it seems worse. For once not the usual "we're doomed and its Co2" nonsense. No mention of the jetstream or Solar influences though (only to be expected).
On 19 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
19/20 deg. @ around 3pm, had a tremendous heavy downpour an hour ago sky looked electrical really thought it was going to crack a rumble or two! The rain on the shelter tin roof got so loud was fantastic! but I was weighed measured and left looking at the hope of a flash of lightning or 2 according to my phone weather app for between 3-5pm lol!
On 19 Jul 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Just had a monsoon shower with some large hailstones thrown in for good measure so that's my garden watered for the next six months
On 19 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Hot and sultry night, with some rain overnight. Overcast but bright this morning with occasional short showers but still warm. The big story is the R&A for the first time in Open history have started earlier, are using two tees to start and sending the players out in threes rather than pairs. This is because of the forecast for storms and lightning. Comment from Hazel Irvine at 1145 that the forecast weather has yet to materialise and lightning downgraded to amber from red. Next danger period was 2pm she said. So keep watching to see if somebody gets egg on their face. Spaceweather has recorded the first blank day for sunspots since 2011. Is it me or are NASA sounding a bit desperate in some of their comments regarding the current lack of sunspots? I mean, it almost suggests a tacit acknowledgement that high solar activity can contribute to warming the planet. But I thought we were all supposed to know that the sun has no influence?
On 19 Jul 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
Yesterday (19th) I saw something I have never noticed before (and I spend a lot of time looking at the sky) It was some medium level stratus type clouds but with darker areas - nothing unusual about that - except that they had a very "blended" look as if a lot of airbrushing had been applied to a photo. Hard to describe but the two I saw (about 2 miles apart) stood out right away to everyone that saw them. One looked about 3/4 mile by 1/2 and the other one smaller. This was about 90 minutes before the bad weather reached us from the south and the sky was still mostly clear but with a wide variety of clouds at all altitudes.
Just like Paddy further north we rarely get storms here in Fife that are as spectacular as in the "Sarf" of the country but with that proviso, our weather generally follows Dr Piers' forecasts.
On 19 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Temps up to 23 deg. Yesterday and felt humid we escaped the storms but today feels like we could still do with one to clear the air even though not as muggy as yesterday due to light variable breeze, overcast this morning at 11.a.m 17 deg. Not much change on overnight temp.
On 19 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
wow! a whole series of storms just burst into life across the whole south of the uk. Thunder and lightening here with some needed rain. Going to be an interesting night / the weather warnings and a few charts of atmosphere over at the newsblog
===
http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/amber-severe-weather-warning-as-storms-expected-f
or-uk-on-youtube/ ===
Recent stories on news blog; average July so far according to Met as days warm but nights cooler than av; spotless sun. lots of coronal holes (southern negative with closed field lines, positive in north are open.*); 2nd year in a row Arctic temps below av.; Typhoon Rammasun slams Southern China & Vietnam; Desperate delusional warmists' claims jet stream caused by co2; bees, flowers and electrical charge ... weatheraction.wordpress.com / /
*watch here === http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ondemand.html === select animated gif & watch last 7 days +++ apologies for the many typos today :-D
On 18 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A day of SE'ly breeze with grey clouds drifting in off the sea, 11˚C overnight, 15˚ at 7.30, cloud also breaking and getting quite warm occasionally, up to 22˚, flies going mad in humid sunshine. Back down to 15˚ by 10pm, quite overcast and so getting dark noticeably earlier. Re thunderstorms: really good ones are rare up here, the last big one that lasted almost a day was in on 2nd July 2006 - I remember because our phone line was out for almost the whole month - it went on and on. But as a rule, we hardly get any, sometimes a flash and a clap in the middle of winter, and we can only envy you folks down south for spectacle, let alone dreaming of the tropical stuff.
On 18 Jul 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
http://www.blitzortung.org turn on the detectors on the left
On 18 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Russ - good job spotting the system yesterday. Didn’t see a mention on MetO prev night. Quite a few people taken by surprise. When I checked the warnings yesterday pm they had warnings for Sat & Sun - curiously from 0005-2355 each day - what are the storms taking a breather for those 10 mins each day? Warning now out for today, new system looks to be heading more east - where the bulk of the heat is/ Gill - avoid the tropics/equatorial regions at all costs! When I settled back in this UK after living in Singapore I remember most of th other kids being scard of your lectric storms - I was disappointed! The storms here really are puny by comparison. Fingers crossed that no one gets this - 'Hailstorm causes ‘complete damage’ in Sevastopol' (scroll down) === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/15/more-hail-stories/
On 18 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
If you missed the storms last night check the pebbleskies link in my comment below as it shows where they hit. Az per why some are missing I think there are some things to consider - a) topography - the lie of the land will affect storms depending on wind direction. Often when one approaches me from the s/w it splits along the A3 with one parcel going into west Berks the other into Surrey. b) the storm tracks are affected by the jetstream alignment which is turning increasingly meridional (n/s axis) from being more zonal (e/w axis) in the 90s & 00s - may explain why some areas are now missing out? c) luck! In 09/10 our area got walloped by quite a few storms & flashfloods but until this year it was very quiet...now it's storm after storm which is to be expected in awild jet stream age!
On 18 Jul 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
I finally caught a strike on film last night - some screen grabw and radar maps here - http://pebbleskies.wordpress.com/ === Best lightning map site asIit has an archive with animation === http://bit.ly/1n14bHQ
On 18 Jul 2014, Christine Gaskill wrote:
We were woken at 2.20am with the loudest and brightest thunderstorm I have experienced in many years. We were then treated to another quick thunderstorm around 9.00am this morning too. It's very hot now with lovely blue skies, around 29 degrees here in the Chilterns.
On 18 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Over 30 degs with slightly hazy blue sky. About to set off for a sweaty afternoon in London - exceptionally bad planning! Happy storm watching tonight/tomorrow everyone.
On 18 Jul 2014, John Planet wrote:
Some of the big cities get heavy thunderstorms because of the urban heat island effect that is why London often gets hit. Cool air from surrounding rural areas rise up over the heat island and cause big clouds to form if big enough will cause a thunderstorm. Sometimes the thunderstorms form in streets accross the country. Those that are under the streets getting hit all the time and those who are inbetween the streets miss out.
On 18 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
met wants your weather station data lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv0ttrq4Ons
On 18 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
clive- i have noticed at my location thunderstorms will travel along the south of the Trent river so the south side can be soaked while just across the river [100m] on the north misses the storms. Must be the lie of the land and how air flows around it? Rain shadow is a known feature as are frost pockets, wind channels, hot spots etc so the shape of the land makes a difference? My location got hardly any rain and no thunder this time but we rarely do. 'Spanish plume' hot storms coming from the south probably have a preferred flow across the uk? Sounds like the south got it.
On 18 Jul 2014, Ronan wrote:
For the 1st time is years an impressive display of T & L passed over E Grinstead last night around 2.00 am. It seem slightly to the west of the town.
Lasted for approx. 1 hour. Hoping for more!
On 18 Jul 2014, David Thomas wrote:
Many are saying that there is going to be an incease in thunder and hail but this seems to be the case in certain areas. Some places as John Evans mentioned have had a decline in thunder. I also live near the Carmarthenshire coast and I remember in the 1970s and 1980s having real bad ones with frequent ligthning and hail in the area. Since the 1990s thunder in the area as somehow declined for some reason while other places have seen an increase.
On 18 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
0140 this morning I was woken up by lightning flashes. The thunder however, was to the north-east over Croydon way. A fellow office dweller reported a heavy storm in Penge around 0200. I would say The Downs generally missed it as there was no standing water in the morning. Some threatening cloud to the NW on the way to work but London is now bathed in sunshine. I am tempted to watch the BBC weather programme on repeat next week as it sounds like it isn't part of their usual propaganda stream. Usually they are too hard to stomach and there are better things to do.
On 18 Jul 2014, Clive wrote:
Why do many areas in the country miss the thunder for long periods of time and others get hit all the time for long periods of time. Some places keep on having it and others keep on missing it. How is it that the thunder is not evenly spead out for everyone to have it in turns?
On 18 Jul 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Piers; ditto my son living in Lewisham. He rang to say he had never heard so much loud thunder and heavy rain before. Russ - no it's heading for me first before you. Thunderstorms from France love passing over sussex and kent. Apparently we had a heavy shower during the night which fell on my baled hay......VERY ANNOYED, as I kept saying Friday night is the big one - no rain coming before. Seriously worried for standing crops about to be harvested. If the rain is as heavy as forecast they could be flattened. Bad News for arable growers. I was supposed to be in Hereford now, but twisted my foot on Wednesday so I didn't dare drive (couldn't actually stand on it). Whilst I am disappointed not to have gone, I am terrified of thunder storms and was dreading being caught in one on the way back, so slight relief that I can hide in the house when the first bang happens!
On 18 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Thanks Richard. 15-17 was fairly quiet I think weather wise in the UK - could the R have been in the wrong place? Sorry, aware I'm probably asking a deeply dim question.
On 18 Jul 2014, John Evans wrote:
I know many saying about the bad storms in the country but I am living in a place that has had very little in the way of thunder throughout this summer. Down by the Carmarthen Bay region in Wales where I live there has been nothing much at all to talk about. There has be nothing terms of storms of frequent thunder or hail here. What has been unusal is the lack of thunder and how we have keep on missing it.
On 18 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Nigella- if we take the 15-17 forecast with plus 1 day margin of error then one could say an r4 is influential [adding intensity] however these hot southern rain thunderbursts are not the same as the northern cold low floodout forecast for the period so this looks like, if you want rain, a ' bonus feature' :)
On 18 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (sub) wrote:
They are still forecasting heavy rain and thunder tomorrow (Saturday 19th) between 01-00 and 19-00. Given that we will be out of the 15-17th (+/- 1) day R4 piers refers to at the top of the blog by then, it will be interesting to see whether this happens or is a damp squib.
On 18 Jul 2014, Alister wrote:
Last night Look East did forecast 'possible thunderstorms amongst a band of showers', but not this intense. Certainly some spectacular lightning displays in two separate spells early this morning.
On 18 Jul 2014, danny wrote:
Awoken by rumbles of thunder at 2am this morning
down here in East Sussex, and the lightening was
quite spectacular allthough the storm was not directly over head, the lightening seemed continuous, whoever was getting the full force of the storm must have really been getting it. PS AS FOR THE BBC AS A WHOLE, I WOULD LOVE TO EXPRESS MY FULL VIEWS ABOUT THIS CORRUPT LYING WICKED COMMON PURPOSE ORGANISATION BUT I DOUBT VERY MUCH YOU WOULD PRINT IT.. but any way hello to piers and all
at WeatherAction.......
On 18 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Sub) wrote:
Congratulations on another bullseye. Third thunderstorm since 3AM has brought 6mm in last half hour. Meto did not appear to forecast this for today
On 18 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Cracking storms over night - quite literally! Thunder literally cracked overhead, torrential bursts of rain & what felt like continual lightening flashes at times. Was very dramatic. Local weather station recorded the high yesterday at just under 33 degs & low overnight of 16 degs. Roads this morning were steaming. Already 23 degs at 9.30am. Not looking forward to having to head into London later today. I don't really understand the R periods - apologies - but is this one? Seems like quite a lot of meteorological drama - do we know why?
On 18 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Nick-the warnings are not the problem. Meto trigger happy heatwaves to give the press the headlines is an old problem http://stopprocrastinatingandjustdoit.blogspot.co.uk/2009/06/whats-definition-of-heatwave.html . Also Meto say "Heat-health watch system comprises four levels of response based upon threshold maximum daytime and minimum night-time temperatures. These thresholds vary by region, but an average threshold temperature is 30 °C by day and 15 °C overnight for at least two consecutive days."http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/07/04/what-is-a-heat-wave/ Heatwave definition become important because its being used as a POLITICAL tool as EVIDENCE. Why did Meto not predict the winter freezes or the winter flooding that cost billions when others did? The best care would be to give the uk the best possible forecasting system rather than churning out co2 loaded models for IPCC giving us the rubbish of the computer generated 5 day and making 1 day an official 'heatwave'.
On 18 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Went to sleep at 3 a.m awoke at 6 a.m by a rumble of thunder in the distance and rain coming down heavy after, have been watching ever since and has gone deathly quiet now at 6.49 and I'm hoping it's going to get more intense than just the last rumble as storm being mentioned all over Ireland, Wexford Wicklow Kildare amongst a few, 15 deg. amazing clouds coming in, I am willing it to kick off louder here in Laois :-)
so want to be a storm chaser next time around!-)
On 18 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
SSN=0, F10.7=89. Nice and cool.
On 18 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
05:04BST (04.04GMT) Fri 18th July London Bridge / The Borough area London; WOW what a thunder clap must be overhead...and more... - prolonged and deep... and more (04.08GMT). For the record.
On 18 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THANKS ALL --- THUNDERSTORMS 17/18 Thanks for all reports here! These go to remind us that the weather ain't over till it's over and full assessment of any weather period has to wait until it has ended + a day to see what comes --- WHAT'S WRONG WITH OUR WEATHER - Answer "Nothing" as has already been pointed out. What's wrong is understanding (espec by BBC-MetO) of Weather and on this I agree (thanks for comments Lou and all) this prog is something not in the 'to be expected' camp. Whether this is just the heirs of Goebbels losing attention for a day or an actual loss of grip or a nod to a bit of open-ness as a cover to moving to an even tighter grip; remains to be seen and we should not stand idly by as any movement is seen! --- ALL It's BI 45d, 75d time to GET and it is a perhaps not expected 'GET' but that is for others to say without revealing forecast content; and on this btw we have had a number of comms recently which go too far/rather close on giveaways of forecast content.
On 18 Jul 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire_sub wrote:
3am. 18 July 2014. Monster thunderstorm awakens us. Going on now, flashes every few seconds from all directions. Have not seen a night storm like this since I moved to beds. Rain radar shows huge cell stretching from London to Birmingham heading north rapidly. Unforecasted to msm had rain warning for sat 15th and dry today/night
On 17 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Richard - it reminds me of Queensland where due to the forecast drought the reservoirs were kept full. When the rains came it flooded because the reservoirs were full. The correct policy would have been a slow controlled release of water to create capacity to absorb the new rainfall. So with our great Met O forecasting - secretly of course - a drier than average Dec to March wasn't it? then the same scenario would happen no matter how 'smart' the technology. Hot and humid in London and still so now at 2340 on The Downs. However, the wind has picked up since sunset and there is cloud coming across from the S to SW. Rain and thunderstorms have already arrived from Bournemouth to Cornwall according to Wundergound.
On 17 Jul 2014, Nick, Berks wrote:
Richard, re heatwave, I think Nigella is closer to the mark, you need to compare to normal. The MO's web page - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/heatwave- says "Although in the UK there is no official definition of a heatwave the World Meteorological Organization definition is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". The average should be the average of where you are i.e. what you are used to. The same MO page cites 2000 deaths resulting from the Aug 03 heatwave. Whilst we are nowhere near that level of heat it is pretty damned hot down here (inc. v warm nights) and it seems quite proper to me that the MO should put out a warning. As Nigella says, it is quite possible that some deaths will result amongst those least able to cope.
On 17 Jul 2014, Alister wrote:
Just watched BBC2's 'Whats wrong with our weather?' (which should read 'Whats wrong with our understanding of the weather?' and was surprised by the lack of AGW tub-thumping. When reading between the lines the absurdity quickly arises: Slingo crows about how accurate MetO's climate modelling is whilst simultaneously hinting at funding for more research. Eh? If they're that good, you don't need any more research money! Allso, Hammond's parting reference to other factors such as solar variability, better understanding of jetstream etc, how can any MetO modelling be valid if they can't agree on the variables? Perhaps some cracks are finally appearing, after all the only thing journalists fear more than missing a story is being seen to be wrong. I think this programme is more likely to receive flak from the avid AGW brigade.
On 17 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Bright morning, 15˚C at 7.30, rapidly getting hot to 23˚ in spite of the NW breeze. Somewhat cooler in the afternoon, 18˚ under cloud cover but still pleasant, wind turning into the NE, 14˚ by 10pm. == Dug up our 1st & 2nd early tatties today, forced to do so by blight, this is the earliest ever. Good crop nevertheless, ground very dry - humid air & dry ground are ideal conditions for blight, think Irish Potato Famine. Thank goodness for the blight resistant main crop, Sarpo Mira, it can stay until October & put on weight. It was developed in Hungary but is not used much by commercial growers because of non-uniform shape. == RUSS: it's raintoday.co.uk rather than .com, good site. == MICHAEL Brecon Beacons: on the relevant date it says "Main uncertainty: how far East Low penetrates" - it was held at bay by the High East of us. Piers has almost always every angle covered, but sometimes things don't work out locally or in detail.
On 17 Jul 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Just seen the radar Russ looks good :D Irish Weather Online fb showing the alert too and Met.ie have a yellow status also! Very humid here tonight was a hot sunny day, some dark clouds about already birds acting strange cat even stranger! I've been feeling dizzy headache last 2 days so hope it goes when this system passes...happy storm watching all z-)
On 17 Jul 2014, steve (sub) wrote:
Pardon me while I bang on again about my pet hate - AGW and Co2 being the supposed "cause". You must read this from the "Ice Age Now" website:- (Kerrrwote)
"As Casey points out, after surveying 201,055 submarine volcanoes, Hillier & Watts estimated that a total of 3,477,403 submarine volcanoes exist worldwide, of which, Casey estimates, 139,096 are active."
They go on to point out that volcanoes emit lots of Co2 and indeed the earth's mantle has one British Standard Almighty Great Amount in it! Just imagine all those sub-sea volcanoes that are right now adding grillions of tons of Co2 to our atmosphere - well maybe not grillions but a whole big lot anyway and enough to dwarf the actions of humankind.
On 17 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Russ try the lightning on the loop http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/lightning/en/euro/UK/201407171830/LOOP.htm
On 17 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Should have added: Sat24.com radar shows the immense number of lightning strikes heading our way.
On 17 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Have you all looked at the raintoday.com rain radar this past hour or two? There are some huge thunderstorms building off the coast of France and it`s all coming straight at us. We may be in for an extreme thunderstorm and floods. The way it`s building, at this time of day, I think it could turn into one of those slow moving all nighters. Could do with a good thunderstorm; things are getting a wee bit dry around here.
On 17 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Part of the problem is we are not good with any kind of weather extreme here in the UK. Other parts of the world, they have feet of snow from November until April, temps over 30 degs day in day out & often over 40 etc. Life carries on & they get good at dealing with those conditions. We don't often have extremes here in the UK. Everyone over the age of 45 still remembers 1976 and no doubt we'll be talking about the snow in 2010 & the flooding in 2013/14 for donkeys years too!!!! How long will it be before the first death from heatstroke? Sadly not long I imagine. Some people aren't wise about the heat (or cold) in the UK, because we get it so rarely and perhaps they simply aren't very bright. Anyhow, weather update from East Berks it is 29 degs - definitely hottest day of the year so far here.
On 17 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
lol Gerry- i pity anyone relying on Meto's 'cry wolf' co2 biased machine as the trigger for action. Meto not really focused on long range- only producing their heat warnings 24hrs before the event which is useless for planning. 90F isn't that hot -they were playing world cup football in it. When i was in Albuquerque the temp was usually 100f and the TV weather used to talk of the odd day being 'a cool 90' lol . From what i remember temps had to be above 30c for 5 days in a row before Meto officially called a heatwave. Seems one day is enough now? Meto should focus on skilful forecasting for the nation rather than skilful political agendas.
On 17 Jul 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The solution to flooding is at hand https://www.imperial-consultants.co.uk/news/2014/new-freshwater-control-system-may-resolve-flood-challenges
A 'smart' system will use the best of technology to control the whole water system. Using weather forecasts......
On 17 Jul 2014, B.Spin wrote:
It seems Wind TurDbines are becoming more dangerous-----
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2695266/Wind-turbine-fire-risk-Number-catch-alight-year-ten-times-higher-industry-admits.html-----
On 17 Jul 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter wrote:
GREAT QUALITY COMMS ALL --- RICHARD MIDS Well of course the BBC heirs of goebbels are more interested in promoting the words HOT WEATHER than helping any children. It was thanks to their denial of science that they and MetO promoted mild winters 09-10 and subsequently while we warned the UK would run out of road salt. It did. Children were killed in resulting road accidents. I didn't notice any vids then on how to save children's lives on icy roads which were not salted because of their Co2 religion. --- RICHARD PINDAR YES and NO . The unified approach by my friends Ned and Karl is excellent but in case of detail re plant extra transpiration cooling with extra Co2 and non quasi-static upper atmosphere Co2 'effect' of Zero or negative more likely, no way positive even if trivially so. --- ALL It's mid month BI 45d AUG and 75d SEPT PROMO TIME Pass on thanks.
On 17 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
I suppose Richard, that would be part of their public weather service, which is supposed to give advice on how to mitigate the impacts of severe weather conditions?
On 17 Jul 2014, Michael wrote:
Why is it still so hot and dry here in Brecon Beacons when July WA forecast is for very wet and cold,as per the graph?
On 17 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
So why is MetO doing vids called "Advice on keeping children cool during hot weather" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36KrCuJ6uoE ....is that a forecasters competence? Have they got so much money they are 'looking for things to do' having given up on forecasting? Anyone would think they have nailed forecasting and so there is nothing else to do? Maybe WA should start doing vids on 'how to make ice cream' lol
On 17 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Sweltering already here in East Berks - 23 degs at 9am!!!!! Got up to 27 degs yesterday and is expected to be even hotter today. Everything is very dry & dusty but the short-term forecasts seem to be suggesting some very heavy rain coming at the weekend - which if they turn out to be right, will actually be welcome in East Berks & probably other areas of South & South East England where there has been very little rain in the last month or so.
On 17 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
correction-evening of 17th should read evening of 16th
On 17 Jul 2014, Dave, Leicester (subscriber) wrote:
I just listened to this weeks in our time radio 4 show which was about the sun. It was painful to listen to it, like hearing science from a hundred years ago, however they did briefly mention the potentiality of a little ice age. Worth listening to, just search the BBC site for the podcast of 'in our time'.
On 17 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
15-17 July 2014 Forecast Review -There was an Atlantic low that came in on the NW and where it did it was pretty cold and windy with some places have high daily temp of 12c with 70mph plus gusts although low teens and 40mph gusts look more typical. Not much rain, hail, floods etc. The low was effectively blocked and never really made it east or south and was less intense. Rain did come thro on the evening of 17th to my location but more like a summer shower than stormy flood thunder bursts. Anywhere outside the cold windy low core was more or less a continuation of 'southern france' summer or high teens. There were caveats on how far it might go east which suggested to treat this forecast as a 'low with potential' rather than a definite. Any intensification was on the heat side [cats hiding in shade]. So low was predicted as well as its initial location and its potential and possible extent but it mainly remained in potential. 0.6 which make 4.0 out of 5 cumulative for July.
On 17 Jul 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
The Dutch KNMI has published 'climate scenarios' for 2050 based on research of Global Warming. They produce numbers for 'hours of fog with view less than 1km', 'solar radiation', temps for all seasons, 'average wind speed' and even a '10 day precipitation total exceeded once every 10 years'. And this coming from an institute that debunked Piers for predicting weather a month ahead because 'the weather can realistically only be predicted a few days in advance'. Who's concocting fairy tales now?!
On 16 Jul 2014, Emerson NZ wrote:
Architecture firms in NZ are not putting heated towel rails in new bathrooms because its bad for the climate.
So now in winter you presumably have to sling it over a conventional heater. warm towels bad.
On 16 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I agree with your points Paddy but the survivers you talk of have to survive for the better part of 100,000 years. Whole civilisations can appear and disappear in less than 2,000 years. I agree with you about modern survival and it`s quite possible that we will be the first generation (so to speak) to properly survive into the next super-millenia i.e. next interglacial period. We have the technology but will we/(they) use it for mankind or just their kind? I won`t hold my breath!
.Tis been humungously hot,warm.humid, searing this past day or two`ish! The grain in the Lincolnshire area is ready for harvest. Some lovely fields of veg out that way.....
On 16 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Back again, the thunderstorm in question went out to sea, though we had some pretty loud thunder following on the lightning quite quickly; in the end I didn't even switch my computer off. The whole thing was over quite quickly and we had a lovely sunny evening. Looking at the radar at various points today certainly showed lots of rain, in line with Piers' R4 in the 30d forecast. So far not too cold though.
On 16 Jul 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (Neth. sub.) wrote:
Rowan trees in the area top heavy with berries, elderberries already starting to ripen, had my first reasonably sized harvest of brambles and still plenty of blooms for more fruit to come, and the raspberries have come and gone in just barely 2 weeks time leaving almost no time to harvest in between the numerous deluges. Hordes of mice attracted to the bird seed have killed most of my wild strawberries (goodie for them), the honeysuckle has given up this year and drops its leaves almost as quickly as growing them, and the wild rose bush is going crazy but barely blooming. All in all a strange year as far as plants and fruit go.
On 16 Jul 2014, Steve (sub) wrote:
To both Richards - very true - and while the Beeb feeds the sheeples with those fake "science" programmes about AGW (now almost one a month) we still don't get any FACTS to back them up. On forums I have challenged AGW people to quote facts and figures - none ever received. I point out the vanishingly small percentage of Co2 in air, the tiny amount of that which humans make and the fact that those glass jar experiments were at almost 100% Co2. They have only hype and spin.(I actually got the human contribution wrong (Dr Piers put me right) it is way, way less than the figure I had) How anyone was ever fooled by this nonsense is beyond me - we did "air and what it is made of" at age 11 in school for goodness sake! - must have been millions off ill that day!
On 16 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Cloudy start, 12˚C overnight, 15˚ by 7.30, S'ly breeze, light rain starting around 9.30, continuing until 11am, then fizzled out. Got a bit cooler during rain but nevertheless had a sticky afternoon with 20˚. Now thunderstorm near us, so sending this early & switching off. ==RUSS: I don't buy into the doom & gloom scenario, which is not to say it might not happen, it's an attitude. A lot of people go around warning us of the sky falling in, be they governments, warmists, coldists, conspiracy bubblers - if things went according to their plans/perception there would be no-one left standing by now. A lot of energy is expended worrying. Sure, I'm a mere ant on an awfully large hill but whatever got us this far will somehow also get us, i.e. humankind, beyond the next cataclysm, would be tough but has happened before. Also, never underestimate people's ability to cope when they have to.
On 16 Jul 2014, Alister wrote:
The true absurdity is: there are practical - but undeniably costly - ways to take a serious gouge out of total energy usage by super-insulating buildings where practicable), rather than subsidising solar and wind, which make only a small dent on the surface of total energy used.
Such an obvious contradiction certainly casts doubt on the reasons given for higher fuel pricing and taxation.
If we are due an MIA as advocated here, I'd rather have a 0.1 W/m2K blanket around my house than a weedy 16 panel array (3.5kW top max newly installed in southern UK on a sunny summer day, within 30 deg of due south, down to 60% of that in 10 years if you're lucky), so that my 28kW boiler wouldn't have to work flat out. And if temps do rise according to ''climate model projections', buildings will be cooler in summer = less air con load.
But hey, I'm not a institutionally funded climate expert, what the flock do I know?
On 16 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
last time i looked at those 'talk to the experts' type thing all you get is 1. You're not a scientist so do not understand 2/ you have misunderstood the evidence 3 we proved you wrong already. Its a cult and they use cult enforcement techniques to bear false witness and shout people down to create a curfew on the truth.
On 16 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
'Whats wrong with our Meto weather forecasters and bbc reporting' would be a more fitting docu to do? Interesting concept that weather can be 'wrong'. It implies it can be 'fixed' to the 'right weather' rather than what we see is the natural expression of energy transference. Within ice age cycles there is nothing 'wrong'. No doubt they will be using the Hadley 'trick' of 30yr averages bolted onto the Hadley version of CET. But bbc like to make weather intyo voodoo only 'experts' understand although its clear from their inability to predict anything they understand nothing useful.
On 16 Jul 2014, B.Spin wrote:
Your chance to air your views on Glowbull Warming.
Free tickets at Bristol University.
The MANN will be there.link-----http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/16/calling-all-uk-skeptics-free-talk-with-97-bias/#more-113068------
On 16 Jul 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Rob - don't worry, what goes around comes around! The SSN this morning is now 25. The measured solar flux and daily TSI will drop with SSN, F10.7cm will go below 90 today or tomorrow. X-ray flux is just barely showing up. The solar wind speed that was 450-475 km/sec is dropping to near 400 now. Give the sun a chance to rotate those active regions now on the farside back into view in 14+ days, and all those numbers will change again. The US is experiencing a widespread temp drop, in many places -20F or more drop in a few days! The US southern cold front is just about all the way to the Gulf coast - just like the polar vortex did during the past winter - with the MOON crossing the equator early tomorrow night, going north too! The solar min of 2008/9 is the only thing comparable in recent history - and temps dropped then too. "Oppositeville" warmists have so very little time left before the solar slowdown reveals both their complete self-deceit and willful public deceptiveness.
On 16 Jul 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part (2) The answers: I am sure Piers would agree that the calibration of carbon dioxide warming for the 20th century is estimated to be about 0.007 Kelvin for the 0.1 millibar increase in CO2, using the Unified Theory of Climate which solves the problem of explaining the temperatures in all parts of the atmospheres of all the planets in the Solar System. 0.007 Kelvin would be undetectable, therefore man-made warming is delusional nonsense.
On 16 Jul 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Horizon: What's Wrong with Our Weather? BBC 2, 8pm, tomorrow. Helen Czerski and John Hammond investigate why the British weather appears to have become more extreme and if it has anything to do with climate change. I suppose we are going to find out about the latest benefits that scientific ignorance provides for the certainty that man is responsible for weather trends, in the minds of the environmental activist morons at the BBC, who seem be non-scientists, who advise the BBC’s complaints department on how to fob off scientists who complain about the BBC’s growing scientific ignorance when it comes to climate science. The main problem in climate science is censorship of the answers, not complexity or poorly understood issues.
On 16 Jul 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28321641
The climate-sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation is to relaunch in September...The new format of the Global Warming Policy Foundation will mirror that of Greenpeace, which refers to itself as a campaign group with a charitable arm (the Greenpeace Trust funds scientific research)...according to James Painter at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.
"They do essentially have quite a simple message," he told BBC News. "We don't know enough about climate science; there's lots of uncertainties - so we shouldn't take action to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels...Some mainstream climate scientists do acknowledge that the Global Warming Policy Foundation has usefully provoked them to address poorly understood issues such as the unexpected pause in global warming and the sensitivity of the climate to extra CO2."
On 16 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Radar has rain coming in on the north west. The doubt is about how far east it comes. Cairngorms (1245 m) had 76 mph gust yesterday with over 50mph recorded in a few places today already. I think we have been so cold for so long we have forgotten what a good summer is like. Meto keep banging on about hotter than average but they never mention their average is a 30 year average they began on a cold anomaly year so everything is likely to be higher than average even cold times. They should be stripped of their science degrees, tarred and feathered and made to walk around universities as a warning to students lol. Funnily someone actually said to me they had noticed my forecasts were much better than Meto. I said 'well that's not difficult '
On 16 Jul 2014, Rob wrote:
Spaceweather.com today has picture of a nearly blank solar disc devoid of any activity. However they acknowledge that this calm is deceptive and that activity is still powering away unseen, I guess this is what will bring the flurry of top red periods in the latter weeks of July that Piers has warned of.
On 16 Jul 2014, Ian wrote:
Phew! What a scortcher! Will UK hot and humid weather break at weekend into massive and violent super storms and tornadoes and whirl winds?
On 16 Jul 2014, Nigella wrote:
Phew - still properly hot & dry here in East Berks. Got to over 27 degs yesterday and is already 22 degs this morning. Blue skies with wisps of cirrus.
On 16 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont.d .. But look on the bright side, `..this may not occur for another thousand years!` we are told by the experts. There is truth in Al Gore`s words. Climate Change IS the most pressing item on the world agenda at present, or at least it should be given the sun`s recent inharmonious displays of activity. Mini ice age or abandon ship? This next dip could be just another blip but we are overdue for another episode of the Flintstones. There are many experts who think that this could be the big one and do you know what the biggest and most obvious sign is? Propaganda telling us the exact opposite of what`s expected. From Clinton & Lewinski to Bush & Iraq to Blair & Taxes they always tell us the opposite of the truth, and while we sit typing on forums, arguing and debating and complaining about the lies, what really lays in store for us passes us by. Hoodwinked `till the end. Survive we will, but if the past is anything to go by, then only the minority... Ray Mears and his trusty dog?
On 16 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont`d ... We have advanced to apoint where we should be able to grow GM foods underground, isolated from the cold and cataclysmic storms. Just look back to the end of the last ice age to see what 90,000 years of deep cold and boredom can do to the people who are left. The elite will hold up in Africa where most survivors will, erm, survive. In the past, we probably didn`t have GM crops or underground facilities large enough to grow enough food, keep enough livestock, or house enough people with enough skills to keep up a high standard of living; speaking relatively of course. Maybe we hadn`t reached an intelligence level before the last ice age to be able to keep technologies alive. As the ice retreated and people moved out of Africa and into Europe the stone age began; I don`t believe it was for the first time either. The ice would have crushed, ground and scraped every last vestige of any previous existence off the land and into the sea to be covered in many metres of silt .... cont
On 16 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont`d... As an ice age, mini or major, starts to weaken our food supply, countries with a high population will be the first to suffer unprecedented reductions. There is mounting evidence of cannibalism right at the end of previous civilisation collapses. When the crops fail and the animals can`t find food, they will starve. We will have no crops either so will have a short time to fatten up on livestock, then wildlife, then what? No crops, no animals, no food, only each other; survival in it`s rawest form. All we need is for the weather extremes to become severe enough and hundreds of millions will starve in a matter of a few seasons. Look how we behave when there`s a petrol shortage due to a tanker driver dispute! People punching each other in the forecourts; not a nice place to be punched I can tell you. Just so they have fuel to get to work. Remember how fast those supermarket shelves emptied of essential comestibles like bread for instance, when snow prevented re-supply ... cont`d
On 16 Jul 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy, Bob, Ron - all.... I always tell people to look at films to recognise snippets of what`s to come. So many true statements are made by the script writers. In `Enders Game` right at the end, Harrison Ford say`s that, `this world needs strong, highly intelligent leaders to run the planet, the alternative being war, bloodshed and chaos` or words to that effect, which is absolutely true. Look at countries with strong leadership. They may be extremely selfish but is that any different from the countries with weak leadership. The worst we have, for instance, is an occasional `false flag` riot and grafitti on the railways. The usual inner city gang-wars our media rants about pale by comparison with places like Brazil or Malaysia. We pay a price for a more comfortable life and that price is long hours and high taxation but the alternative is to hand more power over to the criminal underworld and life as we know it Jim, would go straight down the drain..... cont`d
On 16 Jul 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the problem with disproving hockeystick is that its black box. They don't release the data upon which they made their claims and just say we have to trust them or go to courts to stop people looking at the data they used. Anything from CET can be disregarded because Hadley have been using a different method to calculate it then treat all the results as continuous. If science has a prove predict model then the fact the hockeystickers cannot predict anything using co2 as the driver means they have proved nothing. All their predictions have collapsed. So trying to disprove hockeystick is like trying to disprove Father Christmas The hockeystickers are just crying wolf. In an inter glacial warming period temps go up and temps can go up 4c and STILL be within normal parameters. Anyone growing commercial grapes in Scotland [without glass] yet like the Romans did? . The co2ers have made a false correlation with temps now spend their time 'hiding the decline'
On 15 Jul 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
11˚C overnight, 15K by 7.30, warm day in the offing, though stiff NW breeze, which slowly abated as the day wore on. Quite cloudy much of the time but we nevertheless got 23˚, quite muggy at times. Great that it's dry, haymaking going well on most farms around here, R4 starting tomorrow, so that may all change. Still 15˚ at 10pm. St Swithin's Day today, by the way. == RUSS & All (previous blog): as an antidote to the END, as you describe it, watch this "Will this wind..." http://bit.ly/1ykSUpW, only 5 mins, enjoy. I concur with Ron G & Bob W, it need not be as you describe, and if it does get tough, those of us who know can anticipate and communicate to others. If there is one thing the so-called NWO can't stand it's knowledge, awareness and true concern for others. They're doing what they can to stop that through fear, distortion & lies, propaganda, entertainment, food, pharma, drugs, wars & on & on.
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