On 28 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A bit fresh this morning 8 deg. @ 7.34 a.m but blue sky and sunshine again :) yesterday was lovely all day and evening finally got grass cut and spent time outside with the kids, making the most of it..
On 28 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Piers, JULY 75-100d an interesting month & then some! New format much appreciated +++ Nigella - I noticed that too, will try and do another video after half-term with some pressure charts. I think the easterly flow is unusual but I haven't been watching the j/stream & euro charts long enough. Saskia however has repeatedly mentioned the easterly flow over the past few years, I wonder if the circulation has changed somewhat allowing the easterly flow to penetrate further west as it looks quite a long draw from E/Europe? It looks quite a weak system & as you say the weather Tues was mainly drizzle...it was surprisingly cold! The warm feel to the air seemed to disappear Fri although Sun was very pleasant. Short thunderstorm on Sat afternoon in W London. The lightening reminded me of an X-flare - it wasn't forked but a intense focus of light. The thunder rumbled long and deep after. Strom passed very close by ~1mile. +++ MetO going for an improvement towards end of week.
On 27 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
nice day here again, damp first thing but soon turned sunny, not hot but pleasant cotton jumper weather. All 22 outdoor tomato plants are now in bud and looking very strong. Potatoes plants are superb and beans thriving. Thanks to WA I bought and scattered slug nematodes just before the wet stuff and not a single plantlet has been eaten. I agree with you Maria, these WA forecasts are worth their weight in gold in getting the veg growing sorted to the max. Steam train picnic tomorrow and sun hat and a raincoat are packed. Got to go with the flow, whatever it might be
On 27 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Another foggy start, reasonably mild at 12˚C at 7.30, the sun did eventually win out for quite a few hours and temp climbed to 20˚ by midday, 6˚ higher than the gloomy MO forecast. By 4pm the sun was veiled by uniform cumulostratus & temp went down to 12˚ again by 10pm, wind from ESE to ENE. Altogether a good day.
On 27 May 2014, east side wrote:
One of the most astonishing changes of temp just took place here for early summer.
We went from heat wave temps of 30C+ all over western Russia to as far east as Ural, the Baltic states, St Peterburg region, with a temperature drop of a good 20C in a matter hours followed by cold northerly winds and rain.
A quick study of the jetstream shows why,- the normal summer pattern has shifted and will shift as far south as north Africa and the Sahara.
After an exceptionally long winter, and no spring or only 1 week of spring, we find ourselves in very cold weather & shops putting heating back on almost in JUNE!!
There's certainly a good deal of sense in Pier's ideas that the JS is becoming disrupted & the climate as a whole tending to longer periods of cold.
On 27 May 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual Subscriber) wrote:
DT has article predicting 3 inches of rain before the month is out in Eastern England.
Second day in a row of dull cool weather here in NW London. Plenty of rain in the 48hr period, which broadly fits with the end-of-month prediction of the fine weather breaking (which of course was more punctuated with rain than sunshine).
I used the early fine spell prediction as a decision-making tool, but didn't use the later one.
Let's see what June brings......
On 27 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Nothing but grey clouds with varying rainfall but generally light rain to tog up and get out to work is the answer. Especially having dried everything out from yesterday - once you are wet you might as well carry on with the lure of a nice hot shower at the end of it. Maria of Somerset, agree that nobody can do anything about the weather but I think it is fair to complain about the poor performance of the Met O given that they receive millions of our money without us being able to have any say. A common comment is that they used to do better but that was before the invention of global warming and their taking the lead in promoting it.
On 27 May 2014, Michael wrote:
My thanks to Maria from Ireland.I will look out for your posts although I am not a regular on this blog.
On 27 May 2014, Rob wrote:
Obs for west of Glasgow. Saturday overcast, showers quite cool. Sunday torrential showers and just 11c in the morning overcast but drier and warmer in the afternoon, bank holiday Monday very dull slight drizzle followed by monsoon showers early afternoon drying up and becoming slightly clearer as the day went on. Tuesday starting much brighter with some blue sky plenty of clouds around some sunshine and warmer.
On 27 May 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks - another grey day with outbreaks of drizzle. Not quite as awful as yesterday. My parents live on a small farm, which they don't really farm anymore, as they are too old but they let the fields for grazing & make hay on the larger fields. I had suggested to them that they cut the hay on 23/24 May with a view to getting it in by 28th. I don't often say this, but thank goodness they didn't listen to me - because it would have been a disaster. I've noticed that a couple of times this year there have been easterly moving lows (as right now), which seem to throw a spanner in the works. Are these easterly moving lows the unusual events I think they are - or have I just not been paying attention?
On 27 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
I would also say it's well worth subscribing for a few months, I was lucky to get a 6mth sub for Mothers Day and I've never had more than a mth before to see how accurate Piers forecasts are over a length of time, it helps to see how more often than not PC cracks it and if I'd gone on short range alone I would not have made the most of fine weather in the garden and planned accordingly, this year more than ever has been crucial and we have had enough free food already to help our budget and it's only May so it's already paid for my sub really so I'm happy with that in these tricky times ;)
On 27 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
glorious weekend at the Muncaster Castle festival and fine weather all the way back to Highland Perthshire, then suddenly cooler and fresher.
On 27 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
We have some blue sky with variable cloud and some Sunshine! Around 13 deg with the brightest weather being over Leinster today so maybe we will get a nice day or 2 before the end of mth bit that I've strangely also been looking forward too! :D I think May has been spot on here except the cloud cover and rain continued a few days longer from R4 that's all...
On 27 May 2014, Tony wrote:
Thx matt its not a criticism of the forecasts its just getting sum understanding .to be able to covince people to subscribe I need to know what im talking about and what can influence a different prediction
On 27 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
No point blaming anyone for the weather, it is as it is. Am grateful for any reasonable degree of accuracy of forecasting and 65%+ is more than good enough for me. Of course disappointing to have to carry wet weather gear as well as a sunhat but weather is weather and this weather must be nigh on impossible tp predict day on day. Am quickly learning to accept an overall picture for the month and not to be pedantic but philosophical instead
On 27 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Monday wash out. Raining now hoping for a 'rain before 7 fine by 11' situation....i still have WA at over 70% which is way more than meto so no comparison. Meto wouldn't even get above 50% for next day or same day i seen them change it so much. In a random system Meto should get about 50% but they under that which means they have a negative bias somewhere. In a straight fight of prediction versus actual the £80m would go to WA..... So the questions are if there is a heatwave somewhere where is it or did it not appear anywhere. What is the missing 'x' in the equation?
On 27 May 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Rained all day monday here in Rickmansworth, no sign of a heatwave , the heating was on this morning! ( tue )
On 27 May 2014, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) wrote:
THANKS ALL for helpful OBS & COMMS of last 2 weeks. None of this period was top confidence, nevertheless many key aspects and very nice spells were confirmed (see also my Current weather Comms in main text above). NIGELLA I am glad you had ONE of the TWO main (for most) HOL-DAYS, Sun+Mon, up to our fine expectations (in SE) which you recall had been predicted by MetO about 5 days ahead to be a washout. You can perhaps be consoled that some areas had a good deal both Sun+Mon and realized our expectation first issued mid April. For the rest of the week (To Sun June1) any fine bits will be short and our adverse weather warnings of ~month end into start June still stand - best do a thunderstorm watch party of two!
On 27 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Nothing but a wet bank holiday on the Downs with the rain varying from very light to heavy and persistent into the evening. The cloud dropped down to hover in the trees in the evening. Definitely on the cool side. Not a great weekend for Met O forecasting with constant changes despite saying they can do 5 days ahead.
On 26 May 2014, Matt (sub) wrote:
Tony - see my comment shortly before yours, the jet stream did as forecast but there is a lingering low pressure area over Britain that just won't shift. The forecast up to now has been spot on. Piers reckons "6 out of 8" periods broadly correct and it looks like being at least that in May.
On 26 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, foggy and grey until about 10am, after which the sun gradually came out more and more until we had a splendid afternoon, 19˚ max, with the edge taken off the warmth by the strong SSE breeze, as it is wont to do near the North Sea coast. By evening, the wind got stronger and the temperature decidedly cooler, 11˚ by 10pm. Regrettably no heatwave for us, Piers, but we're always grateful for small mercies such as today.
On 26 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Lovely day today, sunny again. Temp 17 degrees
On 26 May 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote:
Grey, cool, rainy Bank holiday Monday here in the Chilterns. Which meant we rather gratefully rested indoors with a Harry Potter film, after a very busy week.
On 26 May 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Sat was grey and overcast with showers on and off and more persistent rain from 3pm onwards. Sun was dry all day after heavy overnight rain. Some good sunny spells and a beautiful clear evening. Today is a true British bank holiday Monday - rain all day so far. Another complete change of plans for the day. Despite trying to remain optomistic, short term forecasts aren't looking great for half term. Might be taking photos of upside down jam tarts yet!
On 26 May 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
What annoys me is the MO and their (I've said it before) super- dupe forty million pound (or thereabouts) computer. I have sat at conference and heard them say how accurate it is now over a five day forecast. Right! It probably is if the weather is stuck in the doldrums and not changing. But last Friday- Monday was down as a nice day. Today they have heavy rain forecast. In fact all the five days ahead are constantly changing from a couple of days ago. I feel sorry for families who plan a day out a couple of days ahead only to have their plans faced with a deluge on the day. Like Andy we got the silage in, and bonus the slurry out afterwards before the rain set in last week. Good season for grass growth. Impending June forecast important for hay and more silage.
On 26 May 2014, Tony wrote:
Ok im a subscriber and must say im disappointed with the last few days of forecast .I dont pretend to understand the weather and would really appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable people could explain why my forecast is so inaccurate ??? The wall to wall sun and heatwave have not appeared certainly not here in corby .I have been trying hard to get friends to subscribe and told them all to expect a heatwave .im now left with egg on my face but if someone could tell me what caused this poor forecast I can at least tell them why thx in hope
On 26 May 2014, Matt (subs) wrote:
Unlucky with the forecast in this period. The jet stream had a huge meander in the last few days and is now split (exactly as forecast), winds are light, and it's only this weak lingering low pressure that is stopping the weather materialising as per the forecast. The May forecast has been very very good, well within the 75% accuracy target.
On 26 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
A grey wet start to BH Monday here after a lovely day yesterday once a bit of early cloud cleared. Cloudless sky by late afternoon and quite hot working up scaffolding replacing guttering and fascias. At least rain is testing my work this morning. Dumbest suggestion of the weekend with the calls for Clegg to go? Ed Davey as their new leader!!! Christopher Booker has a nice piece on his page about group think and the staunch defence by people of something they don't understand, haven't researched but there is a 'consensus' and other people believe it so must be right. They also love to quote impressive bodies such as Royal Society, IPCC, etc because they can't be wrong can they?
On 26 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
( sorry varies south west I should say!-)
On 26 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
11 deg. @ 8.45 a.m had showers this morning and still grey, yesterday we had some dryer intervals and sunshine for a short period which gave me time to saw up some old wood b4 more showers... Michael we are in the Midlands so varies from the south, I would say be prepared for all weather! I post fairly often on here so it may give you more idea nearer the time ;)
On 25 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@B. Spin wrt Fine Offset AWS: I have a FO-WH1080 and only used EasyWeather for the first few days. Although I found it very neat and had an easy to comprehend overview, I wanted more extensive information and decided to try out Cumulus. Despite many people praising the software I found it was very (!) sensitive wrt the USB data logging connection. It produced so many (continuous) alarms and errors that I finally opted for Weather Display. It works well for me. Mind, the problems with the FO rain gauge can also be caused by spiders setting up house within the cover. It is a well known 'bug' ;-) My AWS is still on a test location as we first need to replace the storm damaged gable boards before installing a permanent mast for the anemometer and wind vane. Hopefully that will be this coming week, and I'll fine tune all the different gauges. Data AWS (00:35 AM; test set-up): cur. wind speed 2.5kmh (NE/SW); temp. 14.5C (-0.3C phr); press. 1022.0hPa (+0.1hPa phr); hum. 91%; dewpt 13.1C.
On 25 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
9˚C overnight, foggy most of the day, though in the afternoon it lifted somewhat and the sun even peeked through the clouds for a few brief moments before the sky went into grey mode again. Winds mostly from ESE with local variations, temp got to 15˚, back down to 10˚ by 10pm. MO forecasts full sun for tomorrow but with only 15˚ top temp, we'll see.
On 25 May 2014, Harris Keillar Subscriber - Edinburgh wrote:
Edinburgh marathon today and I told my lad, prepare for heat and merciless sun. Could barely see across the green this morning as it was so foggy and we had> 30 mm of rain. On the coast it was drier. Echo other comments about physical rain gauges being more accurate than electronic ones. The only two periods that have been very inaccurate have been the dry weather forecast for February and the clear weather for whole of the UK in May. Weather is weather - whether good or bad, though is WA more accurate for some reason for stormy weather as opposed to more settled conditions??
On 25 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
No rain today, cool first thing but nice and fresh. Sunny and lovely most of the day but windy, still cotton jumper weather but so energising. Sheep are being shorn behind us, noisy things at the moment. 15 degrees now at 6.30pm. Met o local forecast was rubbish again, people just cannot plan ahead if that is all they use
On 25 May 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual Subscriber) wrote:
Sunday a glorious sunny and pleasantly warm day in NW London with the odd cloud but generally wall-to-wall sunshine. A fine window to mow the grass which had got long before the next set of rain showers this week.
So far the 2014 'wild jet stream' has been very kind to tomatoes (lots of sunshine and a couple of spells of perfect sunny weather for fruit set), potatoes (plenty of rain, not too much heat yet), broad beans (the biggest and most productive crop I've yet seen and we harvested our first pods today) and asparagus. The pepper plants are doing stupendously but as they are growing inside the house, I can't claim the weather is the reason, other than there's been plenty of sunlight.
The dwarf- and runner beans have been sown nearly 5-6 weeks earlier than last year and have just appeared 9 days after sowing.
Apple fruit set has been very good on one tree but the other appears to have retreated into a biennial cycle despite thinning last year.
On 25 May 2014, B.Spin wrote:
Just a note to anyone using the Fine Offset WH series Weather Stations.
There is a 'Bug' reported in the supplied EasyWeather software to do with the Rain Gauge. Link-----
http://www.digitalham.co.uk/weather/equipment/wh1090/-----.
I use the Free 'Cumulus' from Sandysoft which I find more versatile.
On 25 May 2014, Michael wrote:
A message to Maria,Ireland.What part of Ireland do you live as I visit West Cork frequently,I am coming over from Wales June 4th for ten days and wondered what weather to expect.Kind regards,Michael
On 25 May 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
I think all forecasters including short range are having difficulties at the moment. I posted a couple of days ago that the first two weeks were spot on and the second a bust.
That doesn't mean that i think that the forecast is a failure.It is stated very clearly on the forecasts that they are not a replacement for short range forecasts, and a couple of time slots may be unhelpful .
Plus you get the uncanny prediction of more cloud and thunder 22- 24th which was spot on!
I must say as a person who's livelihood does not depend on the weather, winter is my main focus. I don't know why as a harsh winter such as '47 or '63 would be a mare, but i just want one!
On 25 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
10deg breezy with light rain @ 8.36 a.m had a soaking overnight again, met switched back to rain and isolated thunderstorms for week ahead .. going to have to light the boiler to take the edge off indoors and supply water for washing this morn. only enough wood to light it 3 more times so very grateful one of our customers is donating us a trailer of wood this coming week, not so sure we are going to have the good bit of weather b4 mths end here in rainy Ireland!
On 25 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The R4 hasn't finished with us yet with the cold southerly moving North. Currently very windy here and just started raining, expect to see snow on the mountains and hills tomorrow. http://www.3news.co.nz/Polar-blast-hits-Central-Otago/tabid/423/articleID/345693/Default.aspx
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10082109/Heavy-wind-to-return-to-North-Island
On 25 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
22-25 May 2014 forecast review- actual not as forecast so no points for that. If you planned a big garden party and got in extra ice cream you'd be crying into your Pimms. So it 4.3 out of 6 for May. However an R4 was forecast and while the translation of that on the ground in uk didn't work out it did in other places around the world. Also there was a big meander in jet stream. ...plants seem to love this weather.
On 24 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
The cold has retreated somewhat, though under the clody skies it still felt cool. 10˚C at 7.30, rising to 16˚, back down to 10˚ by 10pm. Feels like a change is on the way but MO's computer says rain for us tomorrow. Winds mostly out of the E'ly quarter in variations. == Read a good quote today: in Scotland we have two seasons, June & winter :-)
On 24 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Had a little sunshine here and there this aft. cloud breaking enough to have some sunshine too this eve. Solar is having a last ditched hectic attempt at shoving some in the system, this is a good eg. of why we are honest with our customers and explain how on days like we've just had although you will still get solar gain your Solar tubes or panels may not meet your expectations and therefore are great if you don't need to rely heavily on them alone and are not looking to get a short term pay back.. Keeping positive in Ireland, when I see my Partner taking small but encouraging steps on his crutches I remember how much we take for granted simple pleasures and how strong we are when in the face of adversity! ;-)
On 24 May 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
First 17 days of May's forecast were spot on last 6 days were a fail. We were lucky to get our first cut silage finished on Wed just before the deluge on Thurs over 30mm of rain 15mm of which fell in 15 min period causing local flooding of houses in Cwmbran. Total rain so far this month 145mm giving a running total of 990mm or 39inches I am using a rain gauge that hols 5" or125mm or rain. I find this far more accurate than a weather station (WH1090) connected by wifi to my computer the rain gauge had a mind of its own!
At this rate of precipitation we will end up with an extremely wet year 60"+ normal here is about 45" with a range of 39 to 52"
On 24 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
meto put the rain back in for sun and mon then they took it out of monday so now only sunday has rain but they will prob change it again-frankly as its auto updated from their wacky model you could check every hour and see something different...not as much rain on sat as meto forecast and a lot warmer too . Overheard some people at work today talking about the meto forecasts and saying they are basically rubbish to plan on.
On 24 May 2014, ren wrote:
Late May the situation in the Balkans (jet stream) will be repeated.
On 24 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
(1PM) Just had a good dowsing of rain with some lightning and thunder, just as I stepped into the garden to do some maintenance *sigh* However, temps are up again and it seems the sun is putting in an appearance, so fingers crossed for the remainder of the month. So far, like I said in my previous comment, it seems on the EU forecast the line from Northern Denmark/Germany down to France seems to be located just a tad further to the West and right over our region (Fryslân). Gathering form other posters, today's rain and thunder came from The Isles and it did indeed come from the West. More roses in bloom, wildflower and herbal seeds I've sown less than a week ago are already (!) shooting up above the ground, and all in all everything looks much healthier than a few weeks ago. Data AWS (3 AM; test set-up): cur. wind speed 3.6kmh (NE/SW); temp. 19.1C (-3.1C phr); press. 1014.1hPa (+0.2hPa phr); hum. 76%; dewpt 15.2C.
On 24 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Maria in lovely Ireland, yes we have to stay positive. Grass in the orchard behind is growing like the clappers, in spite of sheep and lambs, so veg and fruit must be loving this. Baby apples swelling by the day. Clothes are a problem and I need more wardrobe space, no need to put winter clothes in storage boxes these days, t shirt one day, jumper the next. Got to plan chores accordingly, bread making and cakes today, marathon washing session soon, to dry outside. Met o, ridiculous, changes by the hour, cannot plan anything via them. I don`t get on with continuous heat build up so am liking this tbh
On 24 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Met.ie also showing signs of improvement with scattered showers longer dryer spells some sunshine & a pick up in temps in comparison to last few days coming into the unsettled picture they first painted for next week..
On 24 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some wind and heavy rain overnight, hammering it down at 6.30 a.m and lighter rain since 9 a.m felt humid then for an hr, grey sky and a wee bit chilly now at 10a.m with the N breeze picking up again 10deg. with spits of rain, def. mixed up contrasts of weather, I remember at Primary school in the mid-late 80's our teacher used to get us to put the correct weather symbol up on the calendar and I remember the weather being more constant and being chuffed if we got to put a different symbol up, these days u would need a bigger square to put up almost all the different weather in one day!
On 24 May 2014, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) wrote:
TELD YOU SO! RICHARD See my Comm of earlier on 23rd, that Standard Met would be wrong and we would get a sudden improvment to put weather more in line with WeatherAction long range (5 week ahead detail) for bak Hol Sun & Mon. Enjoy the Hol. Pass this on!
On 24 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Wild weather has continued across NZ today http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10080303/Storm-pounds-Dunedin-Southland This has been a powerful R4 period here.
On 24 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
meto has now reduced rain for sat and is NOW saying no rain sun or mon.Their models are headless chickens.
On 24 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
Yesterday and today have been rainy with intermittent dry spells. Decidedly cooler than before, so looks like the line on the map for 22-24 May shifted slightly to the left. Thunder predictions spot on for this period, bringing lower temps and much needed rain. Data AWS (3 AM; test set-up): curr. windspeed 1.1kmh (NE/SW); temp. 11.2C (-3.3C phr); press. 1013.0hPa (+0.9hPa phr); hum. 98%; dewpt 10.9C. I saw ONE meteor tonight, just before 2AM. Better than nothing I guess ;-)
On 23 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
MO said not a peep of sunshine for the next 5 days, but we did have some between the cloud cover driven over us by a less strong than yesterday NW wind. 8˚C at 7.30, gradually creeping up to 14˚, back down to 8˚ by 11pm. The feeling today was altogether less cold, as if there is something waiting in the wings. == PIERS, thanks for your comments. I've made the experience that I and others don't always read the forecast precisely enough, and quite often when you then reply to our comments the situation does tend to be more accurate than we thought from our particular locations. All more subtle than the standard stuff!
On 23 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
I was correct in my last post yesterday that there were showers around. Around 2pm there were flashes of lightning and cracks of thunder, the wind picked up, the rain poured down and in through our leaky windows. Anyone seen the pic of the Shard being hit by lightning? The squall blew through quite quickly but there were other heavy showers. Mainly dry this morning with sunny spells but some showers during the afternoon ending with a sunny evening. Limp Dems lost Kingston council yesterday - hopefully a portent that Kingston will kick out their Limp Dem MP non-other than the climate change idiot Ed Davey next year.
On 23 May 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Two days ago the temperature was almost warm dare I say! Went back inside for my fleece this morning, not summer weather at all!
On 23 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Light rain since last post, lit the boiler first time in a few days as felt a bit parky, used only a large basket of logs to bring up to temp heating and water and now letting it go out as too warm indoors and window or two on vent! I think this spell of weather will be on the change soon and like Maria in Somerset post has been handy for the garden...
On 23 May 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Top prediction for May Mr C. Now for June. Will June be 'busting out all over" - Will my 'solstice storm' put in an appearance this year. One week to wait.
On 23 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Overcast 11 deg this aft. light wind no rain here as yet today just a few overnight showers, yellow warning status for heavy rainfall for Dublin Kildare & Wicklow 15.00 today - 9.00 a.m tomorrow...
On 23 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
woops, read the forecast again and we`ll be packing what PC hints at, although I do hope it is a day late
On 23 May 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I have the faith PC. Five days ago I booked a steam train ride plus picnic to a castle and grounds on wednesday the 28th may. Tbh I am loving the present wet and so are my plants and the butts are filling nicely. The sudden changes are going to be very welcome.
On 23 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Cairngorms (1245 m) -0.2 °C 13.00 ie during the day at end of may ! [-2c min so far] ......temps last day or so been below average but right now at my location a lot more blue sky and sun. if there was no strong wind it would be warm. ......Suspicious0bservers cycle thro some recent temperatures https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHXxJnqbJlI
On 23 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
As for forecasts...my reading is that WA looks at what happens on the sun then gives prediction based on historical weather based on a hypothesis that it is a repeatable correlation. So one has to be careful of any r4-5 that shows up [especially planning anything during one] as the forecast is the best fit of what happened last time and any failure can be stored for next time that pattern appears Also if those vids about solar events making storms on earth 3 days later are right then any new sun event could modify? This still 2 day of a 4 day forecast so a bit to go before review but with only 3 periods left for month 2 can fail and still be within the monthly forecast margin of error of 6/8. The huge meander forecast for jet looks right as it went down to spain last time i looked..as for meto blink and they change the forecast. Even 1 day ago they predicted fri as dry ...maybe we been spoilt by WA success over recent months and are now expect them to be all to be correct? :
On 23 May 2014, Richard Traut wrote:
Hi 30d yearly subs ,Thanks Piers i have took advantage of the summer upgrade just now ,looks like the heatwave came a little earlier than predicted but thus a heatwave non the less which i enjoyed as i had last week off work which was a bonus , certainly good work months out to predict thanks Richard.
On 23 May 2014, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) wrote:
NIGELLA, ALL Don't give up hope. The depressing MetOffice overestimate mobility and Low pressure in WeatherAction Quiet / LowR periods so although we never 'promise' anything our forecast expects SUDDEN IMPROVEMENTS in weather in Britain & Ireland, especially South/East From Sunday 25th and more so on Bank Hol Monday 26th (Should be OK for outdoor stuff inc BBQs). 27/28th should also be mostly pretty fine but cloud thickens 28th ready for...Well You have read the END of month forecast. Nigella plan a hail + funnel cloud-tornado look-out and thunderclap observation party. Every 5 secs between lightning & associated thunder is 1mile away. Look out for cloud to cloud strikes too and take photos of lightning and hailstines - more fun than photos of dropped jam-tarts. NOTE to all. If you subscribe NOW for BI 30d that gives you June (released on 31May) and access (no-charge) now to May details as issued end April. Reports welcome, PC.
On 23 May 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks - rained on & off last night. Grey & overcast & only 13 degs. Feeling a bit sad. Have just cancelled the BBQ I was planning for tomorrow. Was hoping that the blue skies would spring forth - and held out as long as I could but I'm just going to have to accept tomorrow is going to be a wash out. Have a horrible feeling low pressure is going to linger most of next week too. Not based on power of my weather prediction skills but more the 'if you drop a jam tart' theory - given that it is half-term next week & I had a whole load of outdoor activities planned for my kids.
On 23 May 2014, Dave, Leicester (subscriber) wrote:
Are we in for an el nino? and if so how does that usually effect us in the UK and especially with the weaker sun?
On 23 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Further update on the R4 conditions across NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10075918/Roads-closed-as-dreadful-weather-sets-in
On 23 May 2014, s parker ( sub) wrote:
From my perspective here in south Hertfordshire spot on the first two weeks but a bust the second half.
On 23 May 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers' R4 May22-? forecast called for "giant hail Colorado" Here it is, right on time: http://www.nbcnews.com/#/nightly-news/thunderstorms-bring-heavy-hail-n112581. Nice picture of the hail there. High pressure over Minnesota, Low over Salt Lake City, as well as Low over DC were all perfectly forecasted by Piers, including "hot dry" over SW states for today. Today NOAA announced their "near-normal or below normal" 2014 hurricane season prediction.
On 23 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The R4 is hitting NZ right on cue http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/10075918/Gales-rain-set-to-usher-weekend-in
On 22 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Just caught the late evening Mobeeb forecast and it did actuallly mention snow on the Grampian tops but, though chilly, not at your alititude. Can't remember ANYBODY predicting this.
On 22 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Well, RON, the whiff of summer has evaporated, 9˚C all day and now at 9.30pm it is down to 7˚, brrr! Continuous & often copious rain between 9.30 - 3pm with a cold N wind to boot! Look on the bright side: at least no snow is forecast! == Piers, it looks like the Low complex over Britain is being squeezed for all the rain it can yield, why is it not dissipating with HP either side? Is this a blocking situation? Will the western High eventually topple over Britain? Where, oh where is the heat?
On 22 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Rain showers on and off here today, felt cooler and cloudy though sun came through @ times, thunder in Portlaoise today our eldest said whilst there for an interview this aft. about 11 deg now @ 21.26 no idea of temps earlier as really busy...
On 22 May 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
GISS Sussex Our WeatherAction Euromaps forecast is Dry hot sunny HEATWAVE ~19-21 as you have noticed; breaking down into thunderstorms in period from 22nd due to "Active Low in... Poland-Germany etc linked to another Low in Gulf of Genoa (while) High central Med". THIS is being confirmed in standard MO short range Euro map for 23rd. For BI our 'slight shower risk' and less warm and more cloud 22-23 is being well confirmed in perfect timing although probably more rain for most.
On 22 May 2014, GIS Sussex wrote:
It seems like the 'amazing' weather Piers predicted is centred over Germany, Poland and the Baltics. Any updates, Piers?
On 22 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
decidedly chilly wind here in Highland Perthshire and I see that the Mobeeb were using the snow icons for the higher Grampians and Northwest Highlands. Did ANYBODY predict snow for the northern hills this week? I see the Norwegian MO are predicting cool temperatures for northern Scotland next weekend too.
PADDY---how are you in chilly rain-drenched Aberdeen-shire?
On 22 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Lorraine thanks for info. nothing like that on bbc site but one assumes its the same........Randall Carlson poses the question where did the heat come from to melt the ice in the ice age...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JHW_BxG0yE....looks like the heatwave party been gatecrashed by the r4 -cool with occasional showers today
On 22 May 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Grey skies, cooler as we go through Piers' R4 solar sector boundary this morning, with proton density over 10. Low pressure smack dab over DC as Piers' forecasted, Weather Channel showing severe weather threats right where Piers forecasted for today. NOAA will make their 2014 Atlantic hurricane season prediction in less than an hour. Last year when the Weather Channel predicted an active season, I had told only Pene that the season would be a quiet one due to lower solar activity, which is how it turned out until November last year, when the solar-flare-induced Typhoon Haiyan occured. Any sufficiently potent geoeffective solar flare event could occur and trigger cyclogenesis this summer; however, the solar flux (photon heat) has to be high enough long enough to really warm the tropical ocean. Well this year looks like a general repeat of 2013, as NASA has just proclaimed we've reached the solar cycle "mini-max" peak, which should mean lower solar activity-inspired ACE & few hurricanes.
On 22 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
Rhys-i already said that long range weather forecasting should be one as Meto says its impossible. I have doubts the public will be let anywhere near the decision process as the 'experts' will decide to support their own field. Money turns the great and good into the bad and greedy
On 22 May 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Epic 15 minute monsoon here in Canary Wharf. Have been tracked an arm of torrential rain, hail and lightning hooking up over London from the English Channel. More heavy showers to come...
On 22 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
Temps suddenly soared as of the middle of last week, spot on Piers! (And thanks for the quote ;-) Last few days were decidedly oppressive; warm and humid. Cloud cover intensified as well and some brief spells of rain have provided some relieve for the soil and plants. Plants have started shooting out of the ground and we have our first rose in bloom. Lovely! Still very little bumble bee activity, I'm afraid this will prove to be a very bad year for them here. Wasps are out already, which is way earlier than normal. Today started much cooler with a breath of fresh wind. Data AWS (14:50; test set-up): curr. windspeed 8.6kph (NE/SW); temp. 24.6C (+2.1C phr); press. 1008.1hPa (+0.2hPa phr); hum. 41%; dewpt 14.1C Averages for the month of May so far: temp. 21.6C; windspeed 3.4kph; rainfall 114mm.
On 22 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Well the forecast rain for Tuesday never arrived - another Met O derived success. Not quite been to plan but then this has been a period with a low confidence factor. Some rain around late afternoon on the Downs followed by some heavier rain during the night that had cleared by morning. Cloud has thinned to give sunny spells but still some indication that there may be showers around looking out around London. Politics to the fore today. Sadly, I think that many of our representatives are just stupid and ignorant rather than lying to deceive. Example - tax avoidance (perfectly legal of course). Hodge may witter on about corporations avoiding paying tax but then no doubt supports membership of the EU. The Treaty of Rome guarantees free movement of capital to third party locations so basing your HQ in the Channel Islands etc is perfectly legal. And despite her whining, HMRC can do nothing about while we remain in the EU so her words are pointless.
On 22 May 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual Subscriber) wrote:
There's a £10m Government pot announced to be a prize for scientists who solve 'the greatest challenges of our age' and the interesting fact is that Joe Public UK is going to be asked to suggest what those 'challenges' should be.
I do wonder whether a challenge ought to be issued for those who can predict and, hence, help to mitigate extreme UK weather events such as extreme cold and/or snow; extreme rainfall and/or extended heavy rainfall, leading either to flash floods or more generalised, wider-area flooding; extreme wind and/or extreme sea surge events, leading to coastal erosion, flooding and widespread tree damage; extremely unseasonal episodes which may lead to widespread threat to crop viability or yield.
I'm personally also of the opinion that the ability to turn dead/contaminated land into usable, healthy, fertile land either for human habitation or for human food production is also something which should be at the top of the list.
Clearly, both of those need specif
On 22 May 2014, Michael wrote:
The mountains of Japan 850m ALT.
Hello Piers and everyone,
Well its been a while since I posted an update from this part of the world.
After a mad crazy mega snowy winter we have had a very up and down spring with both below and above average temps.
We had our last frost last week, and we should be clear of frost now until around Sep/Oct.
Temps have been anywhere between about 8 - 22oC during the day with nights anything from quite a bit below freezing early parts of spring to around 3-8oC now at night.
We have had a very few what I would call 'hottish' days that is getting up to around 22oC on the hottest days.
Mostly been hovering in the teens the past couple of weeks with a cool breeze, and quite cold at night.
This spring has again been very dry, although we have had spells of rain, yesterday heavy rain, but mostly dry really.
I am predicting a wetter than average and cooler than average summer for Japan!
But with some above average hot days thrown in. Weather will be
On 22 May 2014, Nigella wrote:
Obs from East Berks - Lots of rain last night & has been overcast all morning and is raining again. :-(
On 22 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Richard, this is what is our Met Service have on their website regarding the forecasts and their updates 'The 2-hourly forecasts above are automatically generated by MetService's computer weather modelling system. They have not been moderated by MetService's forecast team. The magnitude & timing of weather events (rain, changes in wind direction and speed) may differ from those described in worded forecasts. The rainfall data is given for the previous two hours. The forecast temperature & wind speed data have been adjusted to match the observation at the observation time, and progressively smaller adjustments towards none at 6 hours ahead of the observation time.' Makes you wonder what exactly the meteorologists are paid to do. I've noticed too that the past temperature records for the week tend to be on the high side lately. Tonight they are still showing a high of 15c here but it was more likely 13 or 14.
On 22 May 2014, occassionally David wrote:
Yes, they're lying about C02, but they're also lying about austerity, the banks, welfare, unemployment, chemtrails, tax evasion, Ukraine www.globalresearch.ca for better information regarding the situation in Ukraine, the EU, spying on people, the NHS, Fukushima (some very big lies about this www.enenews.com if you want the truth), the Carlsbad Nuclear Waste Facility (bet you didn't even know there was a problem there, if you've even ever heard of it - I hadn't, until recently), Syria, Libya, Iran, immigration, etc, etc, etc. In fact - pick an area of current events and you can guarantee that you are being lied to - repeatedly, knowingly, deliberately. A famous man once wrote "all the world's a stage". He was wrong. The world system is a stage, we are the audience and the authors of the production have been driven, by their greed and corruption, to insanity. Sorry, it's a bleak picture I know, but you have to know what's going on or you'll get swept away by it.
On 21 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A whiff of summer in the air today, 13˚C at 7.30, fog had lifted and the son came out big time, already 24˚(!) by 11 am, fresh SW breeze, not unwelcome. There were big cumulus towers to the north of us all morning and the radar showed that there were showers there, this is not unusual in these conditions, sometimes it is reversed, we get the rain & north of the town it stays dry. Just after 3pm the wind suddenly changed into the NW and it got a few degrees cooler - when you've had 24˚ you think 18˚ is chilly :-), but not a nasty cold wind. However, by 10pm it was down to 10˚ with an overcast sky and a coldish N wind, MO says rain tomorrow, less than their computer predicted this morning. Richard et al: MO = CannotRecommendAPurchase!
On 21 May 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Well the Meteorolollipop Office this afternoon were warning of VERY heavy rain moving across the UK overnight `to all parts`..... Now what R`rating did Piers give for tomorrow? On raintoday, the rain looks like it may fizzle overnight and maybe move away tomorrow and rain on Saskia hehehe! Blob of high pressure holding the rain at bay for now (8.40pm). What makes me uncertain is the fact that the Earth is passing through one of the compression zones in the Sun`s magnetic helical sheath. That should trigger some interesting weather events world-wide. Check out spaceweather.com for more info on helical doo-dah`s!
On 21 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
19- 21 May 2014 forecast review- forecast mostly right. It was warm/hot relative to average with many places 5-7c above average, winds mostly light, there were 2 short showers that gave 0.4mm in total so hardly anything [not the 12hrs of rain meto forecast] and there were very sunny times but also overcast for significant periods. I would say this forecast/actual comparison gets 0.7 which gives 4.3 total out of 5 for May so far......given the satellite images of uk in a sunny hole surrounded by cloud its an incredible prediction from 30 days out. The highest recorded temp today i can find is 20c so we don't get the official term heatwave [5 days in a row 5c or above monthly average but we got 4 days and today at my location has been warm too]....Meto predicting some kind of storm next few days. They have reduced their 1st prediction for tomorrow from 18hrs of rain to about 12. Personally i think no human checks their forecasts and its all model generated which is why its useless.
On 21 May 2014, Nigella wrote:
There are lots of vested interests in the use of science, that mean facts, or even lack of facts, get twisted to those who want to sell something through the promotion of "their" facts. I follow Gary Taubes and other writers who have researched and published as to why vast quantities of highly processed carbs & sugars probably aren't such a good idea for the human body. They get exactly the same kind of drubbing that Piers gets for his views & research about the weather. Old and clichéd phrase but Money definitely talks! Richard not the hottest day of the year here in East Berks. Fully clouded over by midday and top temp has been 19 degs.
On 21 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
craig-one wonders where the evidence is for meto 5 days claim. i gave up monitoring it because it was so bad. Others have done the same. i do not believe there is any evidence for the meto 5 day claim. Yesterday they changed the forecast the same day 5 times and still got it wrong. They have already changed tomorrows twice.....something weird with temps today. Its been the hottest day so far yet temps only measuring 20c at weatheronline.
On 21 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Richard - that johnrussell40 makes an amusing comment further up the thread in reply to Barry Woods accusing Judith Curry of making attacks on the obtuse and deeply unpleasant political propagandist Michael 'HockeyStick' Mann (who is for climate realists a gift that keeps on giving and calls anyone he disagrees with a science denier or on league with the Koch brothers - conspiracy ideation if you ask me). His sole bit of evidence against Piers/WA is Wikipedia - making him just another air blower like his apparent hero Mann. Too much of a believer to even realise the MetO only 'reliably' forecast 5days ahead (their words). Your replies and those of others show him in his true light. Never sure why but there is a pavlovian response to Piers by some who think it's their job to monitor him and smear him at every opportunity - shame they never fact check the MetO or IPCC or Mann...it's not like there's a shortage of errors there lol.
On 21 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
The sun has been out all morning some big clouds around but 14-15 deg, beautiful day to top off the fact my partners back surgery went well this week and off to Dublin to collect him :D
On 21 May 2014, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Amazing forecast this month Piers.
Your new approach to cut-off highs during an R5 has worked twice in the last few weeks. That is a major forecasting advance that you've not made much song and dance about.
On 21 May 2014, Nigella (subscriber) wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Yesterday was grey & overcast all day, with occasional spots of rain & then heavy showers in the evening. Top temp yesterday of 19 degs. Today started misty, but sky soon cleared & was clear blue. Stratus / strato cumulous moving in now.
On 21 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
over on meto blog we read a post on WA "His predictions have been shown statistically to be roughly equivalent to guess work, http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/end-personal-attacks-on-scientists-regardless-of-their-views/#comment-1880...i have asked him to put a link to this study. Seems there is still a lot of active propaganda directed at WA despite proven results far superior than anything Meto does. It is astonishing how evidence counts for nothing in the modern climate science world.
On 21 May 2014, Kevin - Harrow wrote:
Piers you are in the wrong business there's £1bn funding available to come up with and develop ideas like this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27488744
Wind farms? Pah!
It's well worth a read - its made my day.
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