On 15 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
That's really interesting Ron and makes sense, I think I did the typical amateur gardener thing of start planting before I really thought about the climate and how the plants would respond to their living environment, I went for plants I liked the look of as well as some old faithfuls and now with the children @ school I'm getting more time to think what I'm doing and realising that with stark contrasts in weather I need to give it more thought and research ;-)
On 15 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Paddy and Maria: I 'got into' all this weather/climate stuff through looking into bio-climatic and geo-botanical information for selecting tree and and shrub species that would survive the conditions at 400m + in the Grampian Highlands near the infamous Drumochter Pass. These and study visits to Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Iceland and Norway clearly indicated that species from the montane coastal areas of these countries/states would survive and thrive, whilst species from continental countries, even Arctic ones ,very often failed.
On 15 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Your welcome Paddy ;) we also lost a Physalis alkekengi (Chinese Lantern) that year, now I'm looking more into native plants to Ireland these days to have more success and so I don't waste time & money, I didn't realise at first even how different the climate here to when I lived in uk also, You are prob used to cold temps there but when we hit -18 here in 2010 it was a shock to the system I can tell ya!-)
On 14 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C overnight, 6˚ by 7.30, glorious sunny start. blue sky and little cloud lasting all day, winds SSE, then S, and blooming cold, coming off the sea! In the sheltered spot where our thermometer is situated it did get to 16˚, as it did anywhere sheltered. It seems to me that there is still a lot of cold Scandinavian air circulating around our High. 10˚ by 10pm. == Maria Ireland: thanks for your info on plants you lost in the harsh winters. We had quite a large Pittosporum bush (endemic to NZ), grown from seed, which did very well for many years and had sweet smelling flowers in the spring; we lost that in the 09/10 winter. Years ago, we also planted Betula ermanii, a Chinese birch, but it has never done well, possibly because of the sea wind we get here. I've learnt from that and my craze for exotic stuff has abated, better stick to the locals :-)
On 14 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 45d 600ft wrote:
Ron:- a perfect example of a model failing to model the weather systems if it can change the weather so completely just a week ahead. May running to plan with a warmer morning than of late. Heavy showers in London yesterday with flashes of lightning and claps of thunder. Train services were disrupted through Clapham Junction due to a lightning strike on signalling equipment during the morning. Roll on the next part of the forecast and looking forward to see what june has to offer. Here's alittle idea to cost warmist organisations money. If you ever get a Freepost envelope from WWF, RSPB etc, make good use of it to write on it that you can't afford to sign up due the green taxes you have to pay because of their peddling the global warming myth. Every little helps. The RSPCA got a copy of an article in their envelope where having been left some land as a nature reserve in a will, they promptly found a legal loophole to sell it for housing.
On 14 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Steve Devine: yes, and just a few days ago the GFS charts were showing a plunge of northerly Arctic air for around the 20th and then 'out of nowwhere' it's all change with hot weather coming on from the east( blocking high)
On 14 May 2014, east side wrote:
Further to post of 11th may, we have a continental heat wave in our region, and confirmed until MAY END.
This gives good evidence to the JS pattern change as per 2010, where Russia had a record heatwave for the entire summer period, while the rest of Europe had strong rain and unsettled weather.
When the JS goes south, the result is invariably baking hot summers in Ural - western Siberia, which stretch as far west as Ukraine & western Russia.
In view of Pier's call on all this in 2010 + the extremely late cold spring, and this emerging blocking JS condition, I wouldn't be suprised to see the same scenario as summer 2010 returning.
On 14 May 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Morning everyone! Glorious sunshine in Canary Wharf, London this morning after some very hefty hailstorms yesterday. Temp was 10c and rising at 7am. Netweather 10 day forecast is going for 28.7c by next Tues 20th May.
Piers - I know others are probably thinking it but I'm going to just say it - you've absolutely nailed these blocked HP positions this month and have well and truly blown me away with your accuracy for May. Congratulations!
On 14 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The melting Antarctic ice lie was also on the front cover (feature story) of NZ Geographic magazine this month titled "Truth in the Ice - The climate change projections were wrong. It's much worse than they'd thought" The poster advertising it in a local magazine shop said "The Cold Hard Truth". We laughed at that because the cold, hard truth is exactly what will happen (emphasis on cold). Didn't bother to do anything other than glance at the article in the shop, really not worth reading.. Thanks for the link to the article in The Australian Richard, I hadn't seen it.
On 13 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Only 3˚C overnight, 6˚ by 7.30 when the sun was already quite high, early mistiness clearing to a really bright morning, like yesterday with dark clouds from time to time and temps rose to 16˚. However, today the showers started at 1pm, there was even a slight rumble of thunder and the mood changed completely to a rainy afternoon with some pretty beefy showers and by 6pm it felt pretty cold at 10˚, going down to 7˚ by 10pm with a just about full moon (tomorrow) in a now pretty clear sky.
On 13 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks Piers, the lies they tell are just getting bigger as their proposition collapses.
Touch of snow above 900 metres today. no mention in the Mobeeb forecast of that
On 13 May 2014, Richard Traut wrote:
Yearly 30dy subs, Lovely sunny day here in Redcar today ,light winds ,15.c and blue skies, BBC forecast heavy showers with hail throughout the afternoon , well i have just putt my deck chair away having moved a very large spider from it which i returned to a bush ,washed and polished the car a chore that needs doing :) ,and its now 5.15pm and that sun is still shining so BBC cant even get a few hours in advance right no change there then, supercomputer what a laugh just more tax excuses ,enjoy the sun people.Richard.
On 13 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Re: Al Jazeera - funny how the warmists all claim that anyone who challenges their fairy story is being funded by 'big oil' when the opposite appears to be the truth. Richard: good idea for the calendar but which of the ever-changing Met O forecasts should we use? Since they have withdrawn their long range forecasts we would have to use the longest they can manage. Craig - I will have a look at JB's El Nino posting. The words 'straw' and 'clutching' do come to mind as the warmists desperately search for some warmth from somewhere. A bright day became more showery into the evening with some heavy. Showery again in London today with a couple of claps of thunder to go with some heavy bursts of rain. Still cool temperature wise.
On 13 May 2014, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Piers, your new approach to "cut-off highs" during an R5 seems to be working - well done!
On 13 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Turning out a nice enough day, suns out slight breeze around 15 deg. @ lunch time, still a lot of low and high cloud around some heavy looking, one distant rumble of thunder didn't run this time! sorting the next veg bed for more sowing, ground is nice to work after all that rain & met say good spell of weather till weekend then unsettled again after.....
On 13 May 2014, Piers_corbyn follow on twitter wrote:
THE ANTARCTIC MEDIA TEST RON RICHARD LORRAINE YES Well spotted this little swirl of lies gives us two points 1. It points to one brazen lie factory which will produce in true nazi goebbelesque style any story to hide the inconvenient truths of objective measurement. They are the true scum of the Earth and with #ScienceDeniers like that around one can better appreciate the role of RobsPierre in the French Revolution. 2. It also reveals who are the most brazen media lie propagators and here I find perhaps even ahead of the BBC WE HAVE AL JAZEERA WHO are pushing this lie wall to wall. Surprising? Given they pride themselves in objective reporting on Ukraine, Libya, Iraq etc but wait WHO OWNS THEM? Answer The OIL STATE QATAR* showing again as we always said AGW IS A BIG OIL LIE INTENDED TO RAMP UP ENERGY PRICES. GREENPEACE opposition LoL to BIGOIL is a sham. *http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/01/05/who-really-owns-al-jazeera-and-whats-to-become-of-current-tvs-hosts/
On 13 May 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Re the Antarctica melt artical on the BBC & news flashes I've seen on Bloomberg etc
Isnt there Geo thermal activity & volcanes under the ice in this area ??
On 13 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Lorraine and Richard: Yes, the record Antarctic ice extent must be scary stuff for the Warmo-Panickers, so another story had to be brought in to muddy the frozen water.
On 13 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
lorraine- did you see..."Antarctic sea ice at record levels
GRAHAM LLOYD, The Australian, May 12, 2014 12:00AM
...ANTARCTIC sea ice has expanded to record levels for April, increasing by more than 110,000sq km a day last month to nine million square kilometres.
The National Snow and Ice Data Centre said the rapid expansion had continued into May and the seasonal cover was now bigger than the record “by a significant margin’’
...http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels/story-e6frg8y6-1226913708208#....also The April Arctic minimum was 270,000sq km higher than the record April low, which occurred in 2007....national media is just a biased relay station.
On 13 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Lorraine - dreadful reporting, Guardian followed suit ===
http://bit.ly/1mQ4A20 === will take 100s to 1000years! (and assumes warmers seas. The Guardian also have a woeful piece linking the kidnapping of the schoolgirls in Nigeria to...climate change! === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/is-climate-change-turning-guardian-writers-brains-into-jelly/ === The behaviour of these alarmists is unconscionable
On 13 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
only 3 rumbles of thunder yesterday in the end! sunshine and heavy cloud around today and slightly lower temps of 7 deg this a.m. @ Paddy yes Irish winters usually are mild and wet in the scheme of things but 2010 was def. one everybody remembers here, in fact on some gardening sites over here they reference to the couple of colder winters and more volatile weather since with later spring and storms and how hardy planting is becoming more of a consideration after seeing plants perish that normally wouldn't, in fairness I'm a newbie gardener and I planted our south facing garden in 2005 it's more sheltered now obviously than it was then, I lost
plants like Ceanothus blue planted against a south facing wall which had grown quite large in 5 years, escallonia, camellia, dahlia, fuschia, red grasses, gladiolus, carnations some dainty bushes I don't know the name of! our weeping willow not very big at the time was covered in air frost and looked frozen in time is just recovering now...
On 13 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
On tonight's news we were told that the Antarctic ice is entering an unstoppable thaw http://www.3news.co.nz/Antarctic-ice-entering-unstoppable-thaw---scientist/tabid/1160/articleID/344028/Default.aspx I will be interested to see how this "irreversible" thaw continues in the next few years. Apparently the meltdown is at the point of no return, unstoppable and cataclysmic - according to researchers at NASA and the University of California. Where have we heard this sort of thing before?
On 13 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
9-13 May 2014 review- 5 day forecast so quite a long one to cover. First there was an event so that gives 60%. The forecast for my bit was "Some showers,mild, bright. " whereas i would say over the 5 days lots of showers many heavy, cold, very windy at times and usually cloudy so no points there. There seemed to be 2 periods in that 5 days. 9/10 would have been closer to the forecast but next days were more like a storm passing through. The forecast for north of the mids would have been closer to what my location got so would have bumped the score up a bit but we go by whats said. So maybe the 5 days could have been split into 2 forecasts? So far for May i would say its 2.6 out of 3. .. Meto was totally wrong from even a day before. They built up saturday as some hurricane with heavy rain all day when actually after the early morning rain stopped [old saying-rain before seven fine by 11] it was dry, windy gusts and cold . Meto need digital forecasting-sticking finger out the window
On 12 May 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Gerry - re ENSO. Joe B has one of his usual enlightening discussions === http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-may-10-2014 === he has doubts about the warm pool ahead that the El Nino will draw from which appears less than the 83/97 events - we are in a cold pdo phase. He also draws attention to the La Nina which will follow. I think it's a big unknown as large Nino's do tend to occur around solar max (which may have been Dec/Jan) but it wasn't that big a max & the heat input into the climate system hss been dropping since SC23 max. You are right to point out all the heat released to space in an El Nino, something Tallbloke has spoke of often. Climate shifts happen in years noted often through the LIA. They are abrupt not a slow decline-crashing if you will-look at how the heat 1710-40 plummeted from the winter 1739/40. In 18mnths I see a rather fast decline. Lets the morons think the warming is indisputable all they like. Let them crow during the Nino, I'm preparing
On 12 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
A cold 6˚C this morning but bright and dry, threatening looking dark clouds & great cumulus towers all morning but no rain. It got to 16˚ but the constant E breeze kept one cold when not in full sun. Looking at the radar pictures, it seems that we had the pick of Britain today, though now at 10pm it is pretty chilly with 7˚, feels like there could be a frost. ==Saskia: thanks for that link, excellent pdf! == Maria Ireland, I would be interested in knowing what plants perished in the winters you describe. We had what I would describe as an Irish winter this year, so mild. == Ron, thanks, I kind of know that the ash is always last though it can vary a little by location. It would have been interesting to have paid attention in 2012 - the wettest drought year on record :-)
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
just legged it all the way down the garden as a huge rumble of thunder started and more to kick off by the looks of it!-)
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Have the info on growing tomato plants upside down, how interesting may just have to give the 2nd sowing of back up cherry tom plants I have indoors a go for fun like that!-)
Suns out some blue sky some heavy cloud around but couldn't stay indoors any longer!
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Thanks Saskia very helpful will get mulching! I have 3 long raised wooden beds in the tunnel at the moment and rotate crops each year, has worked great to date with crops producing big yields but was wondering if the tomatoes would be better on the floor in bags to reduce blight in future, never heard of 'upside down tomatoes' will go research cheers ;)
On 12 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Maria: normal bark mulch is actually waterproof and therefor a good protection against snow and the like, as well preventing moisture from evaporating from the soil and keeping the temps pretty stable. Chipped soft wood (not bark) will retain water and also release it again. Depending on the season I would use either/or and a combo of both (i.e. combo in summer, wood in Spring and just bark in winter). You will need to replace it anyway form time to time due to decomposing. I'd say go ahead and use it on all the flora but keep in mind that some plants won't be able to germinate thorugh a heavier layer of mulch. As for your tomatoes and blight: raised (wooden) beds might be an alternative, which also protects the roots from dropping temps. And have you heard of 'upside down tomatoes'? You might want to look into that as well. ;-)
On 12 May 2014, Steve,Dorset,uk Sub wrote:
Richard, i understand that all this surplus paper you refer to is keeping the cost of recycled toilet tissue down so they have a use as i se it. [ sark]
On 12 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
saskia- aha thanks- 1 colour professional printed car vinyl stickers are only 20p ea to make so could have several sayings on them lol- glastonbury is 25-9th of june . will it a be a mud bath? :)
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
@ Saskia we managed to do that with our Rose garden last year and has proven to be a good move, would I get away with doing it on all my other flower and shrub beds or do I need to be careful with regards to some plants not liking it or just go for it and bark mulch it all? would save a lot of weeding and worrying too, Also giving thought about removing most of the beds if not all in the Polytunnel and slab out the flooring and grow in bags and containers, am staving off with natural methods the very slight blight I noticed last week on my really healthy grown from seed tomato plants that are just about to flower, shame as have been very careful with watering and ventillation in there with the weather we have been having, my partner worked for a Dutch concern in the uk growing tomato's and he said they never planted into the soil and used white plastic to bounce the light back up to help ripen quicker...
On 12 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Piers (and richard) - Am in the process of cleaning up the WA logo for printing, as I promised months ago. Sorry, partner's illness just pushed the whole thing to the back of my mind :-\ - @richard: I suggested a t-shirt with the WA logo and the text "Why suffer in ignorance?" which is a direct quote by the man himself.
On 12 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
contd...the calender wouldn't have to be just for uk could be for usa, europe wherever. This could be backed up with a small amount of merchandising like a real calender with those chosen predicted days on and maybe a bumper /car window sticker that could say WA EVIDENCE based Forecasting or what snappy phrase you like?
On 12 May 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Maria this winter was i believe an exception as we will probably see unless we are in a period of warmer winters but i would not hold your breath, i have lost a whole hedge of Griselinia plants which survived for years but succumbed to a hard winter 30 years ago and the replanted plants have survived ever since, as for the tall tales of the dartford lark it is flying to the BBBC,s tune and only flying in a left direction. Utter folly by brain dead overpaid green twerps flown in from Australia like the green/red woman in charge of the wicked empire. Green on the outside but Red on the inside like a water mellon.
On 12 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
the truth behind the 97% agree...."one of the most active raters said this in the forum:....
I have started wondering if there’s some journals missing from our sample or something like that, because I have now rated 1300 papers and I think I have only encountered a few papers that are actually relevant to the issue of AGW. There are lots ond lots of impacts and mitigation papers but I haven’t seen much of papers actually studying global warming itself. This might be something to consider and check after rating phase."....http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/05/11/cook-et-als-hidden-data/....so most the papers reviewed were mitigation papers rather than actual science? Which fits how climate science courses are 50% mitigation/policy based courses rather than data based? No wonder they want to hide the data.
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Grey 11deg. feeling cooler due to slight breeze and trying to spit with rain around 10a.m, need to be catching up outside but just not feeling it today so may opt for indoor work catch up instead..
On 12 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
piers-you might want to identify national events 30 days ahead like wimbledon etc and ask -do you want to know the weather? then subscribe. Then when its over publish the forecast versus the actual. People will remember that. So things for june like queen's birthday, Ascot, Henley Regatta, Wimbledon could be predicted now? Soon you would have a validation list that people could relate to because most people remember special days weather. If you make up a WA calender page with events you want to predict for then record the results i think that would be a powerful image of demonstration. There are lots of lists of special days online like.... http://resources.woodlands-junior.kent.sch.uk/customs/holidays.html
On 12 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - The southern wall will provide heat and shelter as well as calcium, which the grape will draw from the wall itself if the soil is insufficient. / @Maria: it helps if you spread a good layer of bark chips around your plants. This will protect them against the cold and also help in drier times by retaining (and slowly releasing) moisture. / @Paddy: here's a good starting point if you proceed to invest in a AWS (Automated Weather Station). http://bit.ly/1gtSVxM
Last readings from test site: (10:15 AM) temp 9.9C / hum. 93% / dewp 8.8C / press. 1004.7Hpa+ / wind var. E/NW / gust 39.2 km/h / rain 18.9mm 24hr
As the WS set-up is actually too close to the house I think the rain gauge isn't measuring the complete 'dump' from northern squalls. It definitely needs correcting wrt location. If this frigging rain ever lets up :-\
On 12 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@richard (east mids): Is what I think. After years of having their fun, the 'Piers Bashers' will never admit to him being right. GW ostriches will be caught out with their heads in the snow! / @Steve: my own gardening experience is that I've had to wear more and more layers while out and about. And farmers here seem to have gotten wise to the changing climate, adjusting both sowing and harvesting times. Another interesting observation: lately I see previously uniform herds of Frisian/Holstein cows becoming intermingled with older (hardier!) indigenous races such as the Lakenvelder (Dutch Belted), Brandrode rund (Dutch Deep Red) and 'Blaarkoppen' ('blister heads'), as well as French Limousin and Blonde d'Aquitaine and Brown Swiss. Finally we have the Scottish Higlander breed roaming our area. / @GraigM: I'm actually trying to grow grapes against the south wall of the house, something which has been done here since centuries ago. [cont.]
On 12 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Steve Dorset no warming here either! in fact we lost a lot of plants in our garden in the winters of 2009 & 2010 that we just can't afford to replace and seems pointless to anyway as think only the hardier options for the future with the lack of warming we are experiencing, some plants that were not doing great have picked up for the lack of cold and snow this winter but its the extreme contrasts in weather that keep giving them a beating that's also the concern, the veg plot is like a full time job these days also with huge contrasts in weather conditions esp. Seeing that we need to eat out of our garden more and more due to hikes in food + fuel costs that our budget can't take, trying to build up a more weather proof environment over the years with specific planting and such... that's why Piers forecasts are so helpful for timing and taking action...
On 12 May 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Showery with very strong wind in spells covers the weekend weather up on the Downs. Some of the showers were quite heavy but plenty of sunny spells. More cloud Sunday morning but clearing to more sun in the afternoon. The World Cup El Nino is quite funny since it is another mechanism of the planet that is not fully understood and therefore not predictable. Smacks of warmist desperation in hoping something will turn up to make the planet start to warm again. Any thoughts on an El Nino that does cause some warming but has the net effect of taking heat out of the ocean and starting a noticeable cooling from next year?
On 11 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Damp, drizzle, cold, 8˚C at 7.30 with a N wind, we are still keeping our stove going. Rained all morning off and on until about 2pm when it brightened up and got to 12˚, back to 8˚ by 10pm. It feels cold but most trees now in fresh green leaves and there is nevertheless an underlying warmth in the air that wasn't there before, grass is certainly growing like mad. == Saskia: interesting practical info, thanks!
On 11 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
* sun appearing to set I guess I should say ;)
On 11 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Back to a gentle breeze, still enough cloud hanging around but can see the sunset which is nice after a washout weekend..
On 11 May 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Whilst C4 may be improving it's business as usual for the BBC propagandists. Tonight's Countryfile
"Tom Heap looks for proof that climate change is already having a significant impact on the British countryside." ===
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006t0bv === they found proof as the Dartford Tern has spread north & by the usual genuflect to the failed IPCC model 'projections' telling us these past few years are an anomaly in an ongoing warming trend (hey the made up chart was coloured in with red) that inconveniently is cooling for over a decade. As Steve said below, if we'd listened to their advice we'd be growing grapes and olives, enjoying snowless winters all the time & longer springs. Maybe when we are freezing they can claim they were right because war is peace and cold is warm.
On 11 May 2014, east side wrote:
I'm not sure if you are aware but in the critical east/north/west junction of air streams from Siberia & W Europe (Ural) we have an unprecedented cold & late spring.
This is the first time I ever see May9 with not a single leaf or flower showing, this despite the swallows arriving 2 days ago.
As proof of sudden fluctuations in JS orientation, we don't get a spring this year at all, it changes extremely suddenly into summer from 4C a few days ago, snow 10 days ago into 29C mid summer heat BEFORE the middle of may.
Thought you might like to know this. It's a very unusual pattern that takes place when the Jetstream goes south over the UK, bringing tropical heat to Siberia, but becoming more normal with this global cooling & Mia airstreams.
On 11 May 2014, mwhite wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No17.pdf
"Panel for Science Denial IPSD"
The "Green Ahnenerbe" would be a good description
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahnenerbe
"The Ahnenerbe was a pseudo-scientific institute in Nazi Germany"
On 11 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
KEN - looks to be based on a story from Nov. last ===http://bit.ly/1jOuHCK === curious why they run it now as nothing I can find since Nov. There was some scaremongering based on east Antarctic ice sheets (volcano is in west) in last week. Interesting idea as area not well monitored with far less records like from the Admiralty we have in Arctic. It's another one of the unknowns that we assume are our fault and bad, rather than part of the natural order of the planet
On 11 May 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Think about this i have been a outside sort of guy and a keen gardener, Then tell me this if anyone on here has seen a difference in there gardening habit due to A Warming Trend then i would like to know about it because i haven't, if you look at the Millions of words written about when to plant etc. nothing has changed apart from when we get a very cold winter when the soil takes time to warm. NO WARMING AS I CAN SEE.
Sunshine and some showers Today 12.44 sunday afternoon, warm Enough to work in the Garden OK.
On 11 May 2014, Wendy wrote:
sub- High Peak.Never seen so much rain! TEMP.8 degrees .Rained very hard all Saturday night,still at it Sunday! Standing water in the fields.Really fed up with the weather.Can't wait for some sun.
On 11 May 2014, Ken wrote:
Piers, have you seen the revelation in today's Sunday Times. Apparently a volcano, mount sidley is causing the ice sheet to melt in the western antartic. Of course the reporters qualify this by saying that it is accelerating the ice melt caused by climate change. Is this another nail in the global warming scam?
On 11 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
Very interesting experiment and subsequent discussion on temp. measurements being influenced by paint used on Stevenson Screens. http://bit.ly/RyXmRE The discussion on the page is
On 11 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - @Paddy: yes, the siting is very important. I'm going over several poss. scenarios w.r.t. final location. Looks as if I'll need to afix extention cables to place the diff. sensors and poss. build a so-called Stevenson Screen (instrument shelter) for the temp./hum. gauge. / Last readings from test site: (9:35 AM) temp 13.5C / hum. 82% / dewp 10.5C / press. 995.5 Hpa- / wind var. E/NW / gust 39.2 km/h / rain 6.3mm 24hr
On 11 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Ron - the KNMI predicts warmer weather as of Wednesday, preceded by cool days. Temps indeed have been 'below normal' although this has been the trend of the past 5 years; small burst of warm weather early Spring, followed by lots of rain and cooler temps. Still dumbfounded by this 'normal' average the KNMI keeps using, even though 'normal' hasn't been around for many years. Piers has my 100% trust, I went and 'splurged' by jumping on the 6mnth offer ;-). / @Rhys and Craig: Nincompoops, those highly intelligent and well educated people who take any fact as God given truth without even bothering to check it. And you do need a strong backbone and loads of determination to extract yourself from the rat race, as both people and organisations will exert a lot of pressure to 'reel you back in'. Nothing upsets people more than finding something or somebody that cannot be stuffed into a pre-defined box.[cont.]
On 11 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Just had an email from friends in Newfoundland desribing their long cold spell and recent seasonally record snow fall. One of the benefits is a larger than usual number of icebergs and the potential for iceberg-tourism visits. Not the kind of thing you hear in the MSM eh?
On 11 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: yes Ash ( Fraxinus excelsior) is generally the last tree to flush and also loses its leaves fairly early too.
On 11 May 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
If people get the idea WA stuff works then they will want to steal the method not buy subs. If some Govts are being told to look at WA work then one has to consider for how long one can keep the method secret. After trashing it for so long it would be too humiliating and politically impossible to openly say WA has something that works [with all that implies for co2 ponzi scheme] they would have to pretend they discovered something themselves and enfold that into the current dogma. If they could match skill in forecasting with a new 'co2 lite' then they would have something powerful to convince the public they are right? The killer to get massive subs is validation but no official body will ever do that for obvious reasons-it would mean they are wrong. Their vanity is such they would prefer WA be marginalised and thus ignored and hope it goes away. which is why imo they do not take up any challenges by WA for forecast competitions.
On 11 May 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The R4 10/11 has been fairly calm in NZ with mainly settled weather across the country showing that the variables you mention between NH and SH can be quite considerable Piers.
On 10 May 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
TOP STUFF ALL --- ELNINO+FOOTBALL Yes CRAIG Right it is drivel and I have put it in main blog above with Comm. We could now start a Charlatan Monitor section in our WeatherActionWordpress companion blog to keep a track of all this drivel and expose them later. --- RUSS+MARIE YES Useful Reports thank you. We are in the second of an R4 pair of course which is why it's been on and on:- 7-8th and 10-11th. The 10-11th was an uptick strengthening from 45d btw and is being confirmed. You might ask, well can we be sure of the gap 9th. the answer is only partly but we did not put a longer R4 7-11th because there are two distinct things going on and they might be different in a number of ways in Nh or Sh / New Zealand. --- MAY ONLY HALF PRICE (after 8th) offer has had some uptake but not very much. Puzzling given interest in MAYalthough some prefer to go for 6m/12m anyway. PASS ON MAY OFFER INFO always welcome.
On 10 May 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
It seems that we've been somewhat luckier in the R4 which ended yesterday than Russ, Craig, Saskia in their respective locations; SE - NE breeze today, cloudy with few lighter breaks, feeling cold at 9 - 13 - 8˚C but much less rain than the MO had predicted. Absence of strong winds due to Scotland being in the centre of the current Low. == "Oak before ash, you're in for a splash; ash before oak, you're in for a soak" - someone said to me that the ash were always out last anyway - can anyone confirm that? == Saskia: great to hear of your weather station installation, siting is everything in order to get accurate readings. We are now surrounded by quite a number of trees we planted back in the early 90s, changing air flow (much to our benefit though) so I will have to think carefully how I put my instruments up when I eventually get them.
On 10 May 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Piers, I`m fed up of driving in torrential downpours over the past 4 days, any chance of some fine weather my good man? The local farmers fields are already standing in water...gulp! Today (10th) it`s windier, milder but shorter downpours. It is an improvement I guess!
On 10 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Blowing a hoolie here most of the afternoon and now early evening with very heavy downpours and strong gusts, yellow wind status for Wexford and Munster so they must be a lot worse off....
On 10 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
BBC via 'Environment correspondent' reporting on a University of Reading report (UoR have made the same unfounded claims as Slingo on local BBC news during 2012/13) " Scorching El Nino event could scupper England's World Cup" ===
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27343057 === now this seems incredibly alarmist & dumb. The world cup is on 12 Jun-13 Jul (5-9 wks away). We are not even at the +0.5 anomaly to be in an El Niño & serious commentators are talking possibly late summer into Autumn 2014. The forecast timing & strength are uncertain as are the effects (though Californian's will welcome the rain) === http://1.usa.gov/1ggMcrL === but hey don't let that get in the way of scare mongering gum flappers.
On 10 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
... However, with cagw we are destroying our future(s) as will become apparent as the globe cools & more of us, previously 'comfortable', have to choose between heating or eating. The example of your cousin's husband is so common ('denial'-sometimes we feel secure in our bubble until it pops) but it's human nature afterall. There are no easy choices here but still minds can be relatively free despite the 'cage' of socio-economic constraints. To put it in some perspective, say in less developed countries or here, a mortgage is a pipe dream and concern about cagw is the least of their worries.
On 10 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Some real nasty squalls today, with very heavy precipitation followed moments later by bright sunshine. One just caught me out, ripped my umbrella inside out and gave me a good soaking in seconds - R4 anyone? +++ Rhys I understand/sympathise that many are caught up & have little choice with mortgages/childcare etc. I was like that too until circumstances made me reevaluate & I reduced my work hours & my wants-i.e. did I really need the latest bit of kit etc. I do know more people are stepping out of the rat race to benefit themselves & those around them. A growing minority. I am much happier as a result & far less stressed. However sometimes as you say it's not a choice-you work or 'die'/go bankrupt. I was fortunate I could make the change, not everyone is so lucky. Scientist's have the same decisions to make so it is understandable that they take an easy paycheck to push for example the cagw meme to keep their job & roof over their heads...
On 10 May 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual Subscriber) wrote:
Craig
A lot of what goes on is people putting personal/family interests ahead of what they know is true. People are conditioned to 'create a market to fulfil' when it is perfectly possible that that market is based on lies or suppositions which turn out to be wrong.
If you're tied into a mortgage or school fees are you going to go bankrupt to change your views? I don't think so.
My cousin's husband is a confirmed Labour Party clone and even when I showed him clearly that total sea ice is above norms and temperatures haven't changed for 17 years, he simply said: 'we're going to agree to disagree about this'. I mean: the man has a PhD in physics but is brainwashed, deluded, call it what you will.
Here are some things 'world experts' have got wrong when giving me advice:
1. Evolution of house prices from 1997 - 2000 around Oxford (the worst financial advice I ever had in my life).
2. Numerous Uk Professors made claims about their research field which 2 hrs of web-based du
On 10 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
a very modest 8.4C in Pitlochry( at about 100m) at 10.00hrs this morning with scudding clouds and intermittent rain, so snow at 1000m very likely.
On 10 May 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
SASKIA: GFS now indicating that it will warm up in Britain and Ireland around the 15th, but Frisia will stay cool until the following weekend, then a very striking Arctic blast coming down from the north for us all around the 20th. This is very clearly indicated and if they are wrong then it will show the futility of their predictive system. As usual---trust in Piers.
On 10 May 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Another good soaking overnight fell asleep around 11 listening to the breeze making noises through the slightly open velox window ( bliss ) didn't hear a lot after that as was so tired from a day of potting up and sowing in the tunnel but up at 6.30 a.m and it looks to be another day of cloud and heavy showers, 9 deg. and starting to try and rain again now at 7.15 with a slight breeze.. Spotted a pair of swallows over the field looks like they have set up home in a neighbours small barn... Papers over here lately have been screaching on and on about a washout summer courtesy of you know who! only one most accurate way to be informed subscribe to WA! May forecast spot on the last 10 days as was April & very helpful for a better growing season...
On 10 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - all the games. And the point you make about former 'rebels' growing up to be suit wearing stiffs is so true! I remember quite a few of my nieces and nephews who seemed as rebellious as I was at the time, and they scared the **** out of me when I saw them back several years later. Lawyers, real estate agents, etc. Personally I have respectfully but vigorously declined to be what others thought I should be, despite some pretty harsh 'leveling' experiences. Instead of wearing a dress and high heels, jeans and worker boots suit me fine. Oh dear, such a disappointment *grin* And as for a 'green' lifestyle: I always thought I was 'green' in as far as recycling, saving energy, caring for nature, etc. But I don't EVER want to be put on the same line as the Green Lobbyists. They are, in one word, scary!
On 10 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - at a height of approx. 10m on top of a (secure) mast and the temp/humidity sensors in another location, everything so the readings will be as reliable as possible. And of course look into a cheap micro-pc to have it running 24/7 without paying through the nose. So far I'm very happy with what it does for the price. Here are the latest readings after it has been 'online' for nearly 9 hours now: Rel. press. 1016 Hpa, temp. 10.0C, hum. 89%, dewp. 8.2C, windch. 9.9C, wind 3 km/hr, max. gust 28.1 km/hr, rain 1.5mm. - @Craig: Gamers are definitely NOT representative for the average young crowd, fortunately! They may be considered to be 'the odd ones out' but if anything they're the ones that will come up with future inventions, solutions, etc. It's because they think out of the box. And I don't mean the ones that just play 1 type of 'first person shooter' games like Call of Duty (although I have been known to quite enjoy playing Wolfenstein myself) but the ones who try out [cont.]
On 10 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - indeed, the absolute truth. Much like amateur genealogists copying family tree information without verifying both source and accuracy. - As for my weather station: Yesss! I literally feel like Christmas came early this year! It came with its own software, very basic but good enough to learn how to gather data. I'll look into some more advanced software later on, as I have found a site that will provide me with my own weather page in exchange for uploading my data to them. Free. The station was fairly cheap (just under 80 euros) and I have already found some mentions of the type of problems it may have, like the RJ11 connectors that need weather proofing, or the bearings in the anemometer that may become rusty. But those are all things that can be fixed and/or prevented, i.e. installing heavy duty cable, adding sleeves, maintaining the bearings with some WD-40, etc. I plan to eventually do a final installation where the anemometer will be situated [cont.]
On 10 May 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Piers - Some last thoughts on the kids: I'm not despairing, far from it, although I may sound like I've given up hope. And I think our kids already may be anything but 'run of the mill'. After all, us parents are right here, aren't we? ;-) - @Steve: we had the library, today's kids predominantly use Wikipedia. And we all know how neutral THAT info source can be! - @Paddy: ARPANET! A little before my time but I've always been an avid BBS (Bulletin Board System) user and have been involved with computers since the late Eighties (yes, that long ;-) I think it's the greatest invention since sliced bread and am an avid proponent of keeping it 100% free and accessible for everybody, but I also know the dangers. Pre-chewed, pre-digested information which is accepted as truth. And whereas in the past you could look up different opinions in books, these days the danger lies in the fact that much of this 'truth' is copy-pasted onto other websites, thereby making it seem as if it is [cont.]
On 10 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Piers/Saskia - re: youth both excellent points. Did write a reply then collapsed the window!!! Whilst writing that did think of irony of the 'green lifestyle' Ed Davey (ugly picture further up the page) wants us to adopt is to replace everything(!) with the latest energy saving gadgets because after we've spent thousands we don't have on these useless gadgets we'll save imaginary money on the thousands extra we are paying on our bills, goods and services to subsidise parasites like Davey, Huhne and the freeloading paymasters/lobbyists they represent to keep a 'green' consumer bubble going, rather than building things that might just last (a tv/microwave lasting 30yrs-unthinkable! === http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27266923 ===). We build steel and glass monstrosities that will be lucky if they last my lifetime. That is the rancid full on greed of 'green' consumerism. Nothing they do will last- thank heavens for that!
On 09 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Saskia/Piers - talking, engaging young people is key. Despite often despairing I am often surprised. How many of the generation you grew up with - even the uber radicals - are now conformists/part of the system? Regardless of the indoctrination of the age it's pretty hard to stop people thinking as life gets in the way-hardship like illness, personal or loved ones, being a leveller for example to a consumerist lifestyle.Youths' hand eye coordination is a (motor) skill indeed (I grew up with computers from pong & space invaders on but lack finesse). If you listen to gamers they communicate with each other & there is a large contingent that quite clearly question the 'official line' that comes from the likes of the BBC etc on many subjects. However, there are clearly a large chunk that use the vast web to reinforce their views as we prob did (i.e. left=BBC/Guardian/Daily Mirror, right=Sky/Telegraph/the Sun etc). I use all sources regardless- but discerningly....
On 09 May 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, Sub) wrote:
Ron - a key point about snow on the Grampians. When we see an increase in precipitation (like 2000, 2007, 2012, winter 2013/4) this is, over high ground, going to fall as snow. Glacial periods are not caused by colder winters but by summer cooling which allows glaciers to expand, not melt. Cold winters are mostly dry + something we notice well in North Western Europe is when we are under the influence of dry, cold polar air of northerlies or the especially dry Siberian air from easterlies (causing a different type of snow). This dry air does not increase ice something you may notice when you have left a snowball in the freezer for a few months-it shrinks, known as sublimation. So to increase ice (frozen water) you need moist, tropical air which is what we see when blocking happens - cold goes down to lower latitudes, warm goes up to the Arctic where that massive warm anomaly was parked this last winter! Not forgetting the record snowy winter in the Highlands.
|
Daily Express
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/475365/Summer-is-coming-Britain-s-wet-weather-makes-way-for-mini-heatwaveand by Paul Hudson BBC Northhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/A-short-taste-of-summer-on-the-way
Coronal Hole pic: http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=08&month=05&year=2014Note QV4 periods have enhanced risk of ~M6+ quakes in world . For QV5 level is ~M6.5+Piers said "We are very pleased to get major quakes in both these quake (trial) forecast periods for R5+QV5 2-4May and R4+QV4 7-8May AND get their relative importance in order".
