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On 14 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, clear start, managed to see quite a number of meteors from the Geminid shower before that, the nearly full moon has not yet moved into Gemini, so in early morning one can still catch them in darkness when the sky is clear. Max was on 13th with around 100 meteors/hr, last few days unfortunately cloudy here. Clouding over soon, SSW wind getting up to gale force by midday, after which rain also started for a few hours, though not very heavy here. Much windier & rainier in west which probably felt the full R5 effect. Temp got up to 8˚max, down to 3˚ under clear sky by 10pm, wind calmed down.
On 14 Dec 2013, Bill smith (NEWales). 45 d sub wrote:
I see that Applecross peninsula recorded 102 mph ,and further east Tomintoul area recorded 111mph today. Some forecast models now showing a stormy run to year end with monster low on Boxing day.
On 14 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Another bullseye Piers! 6' of snow in upstate NY as predicted for Dec12-13, during R4 caused by two two earth-glancing CMEs Dec12. R5 this weekend to be caused by geoeffective high-speed solar wind from big coronal hole - right on time Piers. So much going on. Forecast review of Oct/Nov/Dec (to date) up by the solstice (my birthday). The moon creates atmospheric tides as well as ocean tides, which is entirely predictable. Full moon warmup to occur in parts of NA this week, as I've seen so many times before. Climate blogs are hot with solar talk - many people appear to entirely miss some things like lunar action - but so many others are on track intuitively. This fight will climax like the solar cycle and then that'll be it for the cult-like warmists idealogy. Check out Tallbloke's latest post at http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/special-edition-of-pattern-recognition-in-physics/ where planetary influences on solar activity are discussed.
On 14 Dec 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
I see the mail are warning of 100mph gales and atlantic storms this week in the north. Looks like Piers has hit the target again.
On 14 Dec 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:
Goodness me its been snowing in Cairo to the extent that ports have been closed for up to 3 days. From what I have been reading this is the first time that the capital of Egypt has seen snow in 112 years.
On 14 Dec 2013, Clive wrote:
There has been a possibly that this winter would have a lot if storms attached to it as it is not only the case that there was storminess in the 60 year cycle it is found in 10 year cycles as well
On 14 Dec 2013, Clive wrote:
Geoff. The January in 1974 was very stormy. The storm of the 11-12th was particularly windy; 123mph recorded at Kilkeel (County Down). 1984 was a stormy winter A gust of 106 mph was recorded at the Point of Ayre (Isle of Man) on the 8th.February and 1994 was exceptionally wet. Have a look at www.personal.dundee.ac.uk or any other site with weather records and you see that there have been periods of very stormy weather within the ten year cycle as well as the 60 year cycle.
On 14 Dec 2013, Clive wrote:
Geoff I am not saying that the very cold conditions will not happen I just don't know how the winter is going to fan out and I do not pretend that I do. There is a 60 year cycle I am aware of that. I was mentioning the fact that we could end up with the very cold conditions not happening because there is a tendency for milder than average winters to occur every 10 years around this period of time in each decade. I brought it up not for anyone to be disappointed that the winter didn't turn out as expected according to the 60 year cycle.
On 14 Dec 2013, John Badrick wrote:
After the winters of 2009 and 2010 I was a firm believer in the LIA type weather we were heading towards, but 4 years on I'm not so sure. I have my doubts because since 2010 we had the winter of 2011/12 which was very mild( 15 degrees on Christmas day here) and now this winter is very mild (parts of Scotland recorded their warmest Dec day on record last week) and is forecast to continue with the same mild theme throughout the rest of winter. So only 2 noticeably cold winters to talk about with the trend going milder, I just hope, next winter as we head towards solar min we trend the other way.
On 13 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Snow in Egypts' Sinai Peninsula this morning.....
http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/2013/12/13/snow-in-egypt-for-the-first-time-in-100-years-hows-that-global-warming-working-out-for-ya/
On 13 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
@Russ: thanks for your explanation re uploads. We would better be called Costa del Teuchter (pr tyoochter = a bumpkin, rube, redneck) :-) And thanks for feeling envious of our temps, doesn't often happen, I can tell you. @Craig: thanks for your information, always interesting. I remember the breakup of that tanker very well, a friend in the fishing fraternity had an acquaintance in Shetland whose house looked directly on the MV Braer, he was jumping up & down in horror as he watched. - Weather: still mild, 9˚C at 7.30, rising to 10˚ by midday, some overnight rain, feeling very humid, strong S wind all day. Only by 9pm did it go down to 6˚, MO forecast is for cooler tomorrow but apparently still 10˚ by evening, they also have a yellow wind warning for tomorrow and Sunday.
On 13 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
Turkey has more snow than se england get in a life time!!
insane! how can that be?? Winter for uk is over!! No snow for the rest of winter!! Middle east is even colder?? lol.. p.s Dubai will be getting snow next..
On 13 Dec 2013, Geoff Hood Sub 45d wrote:
Clive, rather than a 10 year cycle why not look at a 60clive back to the 60 year storm surge year 1953 (though in Feb)
, I have not yet seen any forward forecasts for Jan or Feb, but to me 1953/54 seems to be a relevant time period and so the SE a mild December 53 , iffy Janaury 54 and a very cold start for SE in /feb 54
A cold February is something that as a beekeeper I dread because Bees raise the nest temperature to 34c and start the breeding cycle in February and sometime in colder periods they starve burning all their Honey stores raising the temperature
On 13 Dec 2013, Philippe (alsace, subscriber) wrote:
Hello Piers,
well this big CH seems to arrive in time for your R5 period...impressive accuracy in forecasting the weather Piers, as no one else is able to do that. Thank you for your special offer 6 months ago that allowed me and others to have this long range subscription
On 13 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Paddy, your inability to access the site would probably be due to Piers posting the Istanbul photo of snow. Site will go offline while he uploads stuff. Sometimes called 'maintenance'...or maintaining the site..... I'm envious of your daytime temperatures. The Costa Del Aberdeen!!!
On 13 Dec 2013, Ben (45D sub, Forres) wrote:
Hi, Temps from 8th - 13th Jan in my area were well above average, peaking at 14deg yesterday and generally 13deg from Monday onwards. Even night time temps rarely dropped below double digits. Generally variable skies, with little or no rainfall and with some spectacular sunrise/sets and lenticular cloud formations. So, quite the opposite of 2 of Piers forecast weather periods. Jump back to 1st period 1-7 Dec (R5 periods) I was working at Ben Lomond. On the 6th Jan the big storm left many trees down, leading to a powercut for 3 days. Its apparent that the R5 periods are generally the most useful and accurate parts of the forecast, and everything in between is educated guesswork? Indeed its very interesting to read of reports from different regions in the UK and overseas. Yes there has been some outlandish winter forecasts put out there, but I'll be keeping a close eye on Piers work, as it is by far the best long range forecast to go on. Oh I've not had the central heating on all week
On 13 Dec 2013, Clive wrote:
I have been looking at website www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/britweather_years.htm. I have been looking at the 10 year period surrounding this particular year. The winters of 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 were all rather mild winters. Most of the cold weather with snow came in a late spell during February or early March. Going by this any significant cold spell especially with snow would come at the end of the winter period for more southern regions anyway. We could have it mainly mild right up to mid February.
On 13 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS RICHARD+ALL. I have been interviewed for Paul Hudson's Weather Show BBC Yorkshire - Am checking when on air - This w/e prob WATCH THIS SPACE. I was asked about Express headlines and I called them 'FOOLCASTS' which for this winter have already been proved wrong and so seem to have switched from Cold snow+blizzards to mild stormy events. I said "Of course a stopped clock is right twice a day". These Foolcasts are to sell newspapers.
On 13 Dec 2013, Richard West (30d Sub) wrote:
Apparently the worst Christmas ever on the way...www.express.co.uk/news/uk/448115/Christmas-weather-forecast-Winter-storms-warning-as-snow-gales-and-floods-threaten-UK
More invented forecasts from Vantage weather!
Looks like the nest period is gearing up to be bang on forecast, Piers - well done!
On 13 Dec 2013, shaun wrote:
winter hasn't even started yet Brian, not sure about where you live but much of the Uk over the last years have had good snow falls, not just Scotland, england had 16 foot snow drifts last year. So this one Autumn doesn have any bearing on this winter or the next 30, talk about extreme bad forecasts for snow, you have just made the same speculative and premature forecast yourself, just the opposite out come
On 13 Dec 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:
Hi Piers! Thanks for your reply. Rest assured, I will ring
all the bells of City Hall if "Snowageddon" hits between December 14th and 15th. I did last year when you foresaw a tremendous snowstorm here just after Xmas. Your forecast was made 3-4 weeks in advance. We officially recorded 47-52 cm in about 12 hours, pushed by strong NE winds. Quite a show, really, and our streets remained in shambles for days due to the snowbanks....
On 13 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
From 1930s "Rise of air temperature. (Over the last 20 years) the average temperature of the winter months has steadily increased…(in the last 10 years) in the whole Arctic sector from Greenland to Cape Chelyuskin there has not been a single (negative) anomaly of average annual and monthly winter temperatures, while the positive anomalies have been very high….Still more remarkable is the fact that the warming of the Arctic is not confined to any particular region." === http://bit.ly/13xfK2J === quite possible there was more ice in 30s as we were still recovering from the LIA so we had more ice. Analogy-think of a freezer which you leave open 1/2 the day & close the rest mimicking summer/winter. If you leave it open longer (warm period) more ice melts, close it longer (cold period) ice builds. But if you forget the open cycle (low solar period) even more ice will build & take longer to thaw when u go back to the cycle. It also works in reverse of course for melt/recovery.
On 13 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
From 1975==="During cooler climatic periods, however, the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a “meridional circulation” pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, +++bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other+++. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season...Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes." ===http://bit.ly/1bV5dRU=== Remember the snow in E Auz the other day? West Auz "A heat wave of this duration is very unusual in the first half of December; however, there was a seven-day heat wave that took place during the final seven days of December 2012"===that cricket ball is going to bounce in Perth's 100F heat!!! http://bit.ly/18wDAZn
On 13 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Lead story on the BBC is the snow in Syria, part of a wider system dropping early snowfall across the Middle East. Obviously the focus is on the human plight and this is just the START of winter. Apparently in Syria it's the word for 20 yrs but not been able to gain a precise year yet. The snow is also affecting Jerusalem - the worst Dec (i.e. early) snow since +++1953+++ WAPO cover the story === http://wapo.st/IIrKot === note also "Snowfall in Jerusalem is not all that uncommon and occurs every couple of years on average.+++ Significant accumulating snow is more rare.This marks the third year in a row for snowfall in Jerusalem+++, according to Dr. Amos Porat, Director of the Climate Department at the Israel Meteorological Service, in a statement made to The Jerusalem Post." === http://bit.ly/ISyqjt ===
MIA sign? Good list of snow fall going back to 1870 with some notable events in 1880s === http://bit.ly/1cqXCW8
On 13 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
@Paddy from wiki (seems well sourced)==="The Braer Storm of January 1993 is the most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the N Atlantic ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on Jan 8, 1993, the system moved rapidly ne, developing at a moderate pace...The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated +++914.0 mb+++ (26.99 inHg) on Jan 10...This cyclone was slightly stronger than an intense low pressure area which moved near Greenland on Dec 14–15, 1986, which was the strongest extratropical cyclone known to occur across the n Atlantic ocean at that time. Only three prior extratropical storms across the n Atlantic, and two since, have attained central pressures below +++930 mb+++ (27 inHg). === http://bit.ly/18Fp15A
On 12 Dec 2013, Sean, heckington (non subscriber) wrote:
Piers, I have heard that you are being interviewed by Paul Hudson regarding your solar expertise. Could you (or any others) tell us when please as I would love to hear more about your methods. Please note that unlike some other NON subscribers I AM NOT interested in what you have forecast, that is purely for those who have paid!!!!
On 12 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Piers has such a good offer on at the moment that i have ordered my forecasts for the next 6months, snow or not winter sometimes are mild, it is good to know the feel for the month ahead wind,rain,sun or snow,frost to..... all of interest to me. Best wishes for christmas to piers and all.
On 12 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Mild again, though starting from 5˚C overnight and then rising to 11˚ by midday, with a good bit of sunshine during the middle of the day, very humid as well with a constant SSW breeze. I thought it would change today, but I'm not complaining, real cold & snow will come soon enough. - Tried to post this earlier but couldn't get onto the site, has happened before, this is the message I got: DAO.Workspace error '800a0c6f' Not enough space on temporary disk. /displayarticle.asp, line 39 Did something else for 20 mins & then it worked again. - Yes, Craig, that Low at the tip of Greenland was at 939hPa at 6pm, isn't that a record of some sort?
On 12 Dec 2013, Bill smith (NE Wales). 45 d sub wrote:
A big changet today winds from the sw and temperatures up to 13c in contrast to yesterday's damp and cold 4c.I see local councils here are hoping for a mild winter to offset the £3.7m extra spent last March on snow clearing.
On 12 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
ASIM, BRIAN + OTHER SPECULATORS. Well of course a lot of people know. There is one way to know too and it's not via DExpress foolcasts or the BBC-MO. Subscribe links are above!
On 12 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
Well said Brian. I was definitely thinking it!! Soo much for snowy winters?? Tell me about it..
On 12 Dec 2013, Brian wrote:
Ha.. So much for snowy winters continuing for the next 30 years for the United Kingdom what a load of tosh! If I had the money I'd subscribe but knowing it won't snow I bet my house and car keys that January and February all the way through I can guaranteed Britain will not see snow maybe a pathetic bit but that's my estimate and this counts for just Britain the amount of forecasters that gets on my nerves saying on headlines and across newspapers saying BRITAIN BRACED FOR HEAVY SNOW and it's up Scotland???????????!!!! That winds the #### out of me
On 12 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
where has all the cold and snow gone for the uk?? Its not fair- Everyone else having it.. :( Does anyone know what january and febuary like for uk? Please tell me its not another mild one!
On 12 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
MetO yellow warning out for Scot. Cheif forecasters analysis==="A vigorous depression is expected to run quickly northeastwards passing northwest Scotland on Saturday. As this happens, very strong south to southwest winds are likely to develop across much of the northern UK. At this stage there remains uncertainty in the extent of the strongest winds. It remains possible that parts of northern England and parts of NW Wales could also be affected. The very strong winds may last into early Sunday in places before easing." +++ Piers, I am right (or wrong!) that the low now situated to the NW of Scot formed later & as a result the ridge over Ireland-which was the uncertainty for the 8-9 period-kept the warm air flow on a Sthly basis instead of cooler W/NW? Block held as stated but slightly further west. P.s. intense low off the sth tip of Greenland. +++ Models showing a wind wet spell up coming as high recedes
On 12 Dec 2013, Rob wrote:
Saw a programme on TV yesterday ''One Wild Winter In The Scottish Mountains'' . In it a guy from the MO is interviewed and says '' the next 20 - 25 years we can expect to see some naturall variabilitry before AGW takes over and smothers everything'' ( I paraphrase) So yet again the date for the effects of AGW get pushed into the future. It now seems this is the new policy in the hope that when natural warming returns it can still be blamed on AGW, It took 60 years for science to discover the Higgs particle hopefully it will take a lot less time to for the scientific community to discover the truth on AGW
On 12 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ROBERT-MICHEL (Montreal) The next Snowmageddon is NOT NOW. It is very cold widely and snowy in parts 10-13 yes but the next really big one is the next R5 which is 14-17th as it says on forecast - THAT is the next 'SNOWMAGEDDON'. Are your local emergency services interested in these forecasts? Thanks Piers
On 12 Dec 2013, Robert-Michel wrote:
Hi Piers, from Montreal, Canada. You're darn right for the arrival of the cold in our parts. It's midnight, the 12th, and it has fallen to -15 C already! No snowageddon though. 10 cm on Monday, the 9th, but very little otherwise, unless you get in the usual snowbelts and some snow stripes in the Appalachians. Eager to see what the new system does during the weekend... Not that "hot" on the models so far... The best to you.
On 12 Dec 2013, Not supplied wrote:
THANKS ALL === FRED Thanks for your comms (9Dec) on USA and your exemplary communicating with relatives in IDAHO we need more subscribers! === CATHERINE 11th Re Scotland Yes fair point. The mild of 1-7th forecast continued but one should note the high complexity of temp across Br+Ir in these few days with some reporting what we expected and some not. The storm at weekend YES Exciting and on an R5 so as normal we expect MO to under-forecast. Those of you reading hoping to glean what this means for XMAS please subscribe and if you think The EXPRESS "FOOLCASTS" can help think again although do note a stopped clock is right twice a day! Piers
On 11 Dec 2013, Craig M (Berks, Subscriber) wrote:
Did another of my videos for max temps in Europe since Nov 1st === http://bit.ly/1d8vysb +++ Fog has now disappeared, some mist about but fairly clear and cold with frost. Winds drifted slightly to a more Easterly direction. +++ A real contrast in the country presently. As of 9PM (all in C) Orkney & Shetland 8.9-9.6, Highland & Eilean Siar 7.5-12.2, Grampian 8.6-10.7, Strathclyde 5.3-10.5, Central, Tayside & Fife 2.2-3.9, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders 1.0-9.8, Northern Ireland 9.7-11.3, Wales 3.5-10.8, NW Eng 3.2-6.4, NE Eng 1.5-5.1, Yorks & Humber 0.7-6.8, W Mids -0.5-6.1, E Mids 1.0-2.7, E of Eng 1.3-5.3, SW Eng 2.7-11.4, London & SE -1.7 - 9.0 (only 6.3 if S coast not included) === http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ === The high is pulling cooler continental air for the east & central regions, further west the high has a long fetch of warm air from Nth Africa, only a slight of orientation from what Piers anticipated.
On 11 Dec 2013, Lorraine wrote:
I noted on radio 2 a bbc weatherman interviewed yesterday said they could only forecast long range one week maximum.
One day I hope all scientists will come together as one. Just makes sense to respect Professor Corbyn with his accurate long range forecasts.
On 11 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
The mild spell didn't seem to last long, it turned noticeably colder today in the NW and temps kept dropping gradually into the night. And winter never seems to get going until the end of Dec or into Jan anyway so could this be our gradual winter weather creep! Fingers crossed. Btw not a poke at him but had a look at exactas fb page and noticed that he won't divulge his methodology behind his forecasts, seems odd considering they're so dramatic, don't get me wrong I do hope his winter kicks off but a bit puzzled?? I don't go in for blind faith, but a punchers chance and all that who knows. Just had a friend return from Iceland last week it was -14, that would do wouldn't it!
Cheers Dave
On 11 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Another mild day, 7˚C at 7.30 this morning, rising to 9˚ at the warmest, but by 10pm it was down to 5˚ with a distinct chilly edge in the SSW wind that has been blowing all day. But not as chilly as JohnE reports – that must be returning Icelandic air down there. For the last four days it has been unusually mild for this time of year up here, but having said that, back in the 80s we have come back from a frosty Continent many a times only to find that it was still 10˚C in Aberdeen on arrival at 8pm. A firmly anchored central or eastern European High can be a real boon for us on the NW edge of it temperature-wise – Great to get so many weather reports now from different parts of the country as well as the world!
On 11 Dec 2013, Catherine, 45d wrote:
Been mild here in Glasgow for last few days. 13 degrees today. Not quite what Piers forecast. However, change to very windy weather on Saturday over Scotland was forecast by BBC today. Exactly as forecast by Piers as early as mid November. Hope I'm not giving too much of forecast away, but worth noting.
On 11 Dec 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:
well I can tell you that it is bloody cold here north of Manchester and the wind had a biting edge to it. Temperature was around 5 degrees today but driving home it dropped to 1.5. It really does look as though the Pierscast is unfolding as predicted.
On 11 Dec 2013, Bill smith (NE Wales 45 d sub) wrote:
BBC Scotland reports mildest night for 50 years last nightmeanwhile NEWales a chilly day down here with early fog a,fternoon wind picking u,p coupled with the damp , feeling cold and raw.
On 11 Dec 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Not a subscriber .... yet. Belgian MET says the next 2 weeks there wont be any winter weather at all. Winter is way up north it seems. Hmmmmmmmmm I wonder Piers. Might become a subscriber within a short time because their longterm forcasts always suck ...
On 11 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Futher to Ulrike's comm (below) Galatasaray vs Juventus was called due to snow === http://dailym.ai/1bW0C1I === w Been watching this emerging cold there for a while, yhink similar cold in Adriatics last year. With the US snow blast & the N Sea storm I am rather impressed! The Jan 45d forecast is only days away..I can't wait for what's next.+++We are only 11d into Dec so don't write off winter. In 2013 the cold didn’t kick in until mid Jan-5 wks away-& lasted until April (17 wks away). MetO say they can only really predict to 5days. You know what I'm going to say...if you want to stay ahead of the curve and the models this winter SUBSCRIBE! (Freecasts which predicted winter practically every wk since late Sept? No thanks!) +++ Freezing fog turned to fog before dawn. Eased a bit during day but with 1hr of light left is thickening again. Temps ~5C with dew points <~0.5-1C apart hence fog. Winds mainly S/SE. Pressure falling.
On 11 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn twitter WA FORECASTER wrote:
THANKS ULRIKE Please promote our Eu 60% OFF ALL WINTER MONTHS Forecast deal by twitter facebook or whatever. Br+Ir and USA are also going v well so likewise to other forecast appreciators. The all winter offers are only 30 whatevers - £30 Br+Ir, $30 USA, €30 Europe THANKS Piers
On 11 Dec 2013, Ulrike (regular subscriber) wrote:
Incredibly precise forecast again by Piers. Look at the Europe maps for the period of 10-13 December and then look at the news about SNOW IN ISTANBUL and wild storms in the Mediterranean. Very impressive!
On 11 Dec 2013, Fred wrote:
Well well well, the papers are going for storms overXmas period. Well with Piers' R4 period of approaching and over Christmas and R5 for New Year....I'm not surprised they have changed their tunes. Coffee has been smelled.
MetO now announcing the change to more unsettled this weekend, best they keep their eyes peeled as we approach R5 period 14-16.
Its going to be interesting seeing what lies ahead, the polar vortex is strong and a westerly upper flow is dominant.
On 11 Dec 2013, Sekrit Skwerl [Shannon] NJ USA wrote:
The winter we didn't get last year finally arrived with a vengeance! Had a bit of snow Sun-Mon, then again this morning (12/10) and we are in for a bit more on Saturday. It is bloody COLD!!!
Once again Piers is on the money. I do my preparations based on his wise counsel- shovels at the ready, salty-gritty stuff for the stoop, booties for the dogs and the Skwerlmobile has blankies, a shovel and scrapers ready for old man Winter.
It really is beginning to look a lot like Christmas here in New Jersey.
On 11 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn twitter WA FORECASTER wrote:
GOOD COMMS ALL ===
ASIM, MANAH SINGH, MTGLASS much speculation, Notes: The Express weather hype super snow all winter charlatans are already wrong given that it is now clear this month won't be up to that mark. They have now moved to an opposite stormy mild Xmas! 2 Those who subscribe - ALL URGED TO SUBSCRIBE!!! - to our forecasts will already have a good idea of whole winter. === CRAIG M BRILL WORK I will refer to in next blog === ALL FORECAST USERS AND SITE FOLLOWERS You can see Our Weatheraction forecasts are miles ahead of all others this Dec in Br+Ir, Eu and USA SO PLEASE PROMOTE THE WINTER OFFERS to anyone you know in Br, Ir, USA or Eu or send off to people you think who might have potential interest. THANK YOU Piers
On 11 Dec 2013, Craig M (Berks, Subscriber) wrote:
I've collated a few things for the 1953 and 2013 floods to see the differences (for the UK ). It's in two posts. The first is simply the charts and I do a video so you can the see the progress of the low as it zips out of Iceland, across the North Sea before coming to a halt as it hits Denmark. For a short period the low was traversing 5 degrees longitude every 6 hours as it gets a jet stream kick then it drops to 2 degrees then 1 degree (I believe the jetstream kicked off a secondary low which is/was causing the snow in Ukraine === http://bit.ly/1fht6So === the second post is a collation of images and info for 1953 and a bit about 2013 - including a few howlers from the Ambulance Chasing Climate Vultures. I also compare the 1953 & 2013 charts over 5 days starting one day before the main action === http://bit.ly/1bV5dRU === Enjoy +++ Freezing fog here! Beautiful. As Nigella said warm yesterday but we've now picked up a colder continental flow (Heard ~14C in Glasgow?)
On 10 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
I think winter is going to be cancelled in the UK. I have a feeling especially with solar activity increase in January 2014 this would be my gut instincts. : (
On 10 Dec 2013, Mana Singh wrote:
my wild guess is that we will get a winter later on say jan/feb when it will hit hard and maybe wont stop till late! who know. Just dont wish for it.
On 10 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Mild again, 7˚C overnight, good SW wind, fairly cloudy, interesting lenticular type stratocumulus in afternoon with occasional glimpses of the sun, highest temp 9˚, down to 7 again by 10pm. Dry but damp all day, which is usual for this wind direction. Looks like that East European High is blocking much of the wet that would otherwise arrive from the Atlantic and will do for a while yet, enjoy the warmth while it lasts :-)
On 10 Dec 2013, Karl (ocassional sub.) wrote:
2nd night in a row that the bbc website has a min temp of +6 but it's -1 now! What are they doing? Can anyone shed any light on why their short term (not to mention long term) forecasting is so awful?
On 10 Dec 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
So what would be the Invoice cost of this total waste of space & time meeting do you reckon
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/10/daveys-heroic-denial.html
At this rate I think the only hope for the UK, failing a Tony Abbot transfer form Auzz, is for the Generals to take over !
On 10 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Thank you Piers. See http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/12/20th-century-data-supports-svensmarks.html, where long term data of cosmic ray proxies for the past 200 years strongly support his cosmic ray climate theory. Think about it, what happens when a lonely proton flying through space meets an attractive single hydroxyl molecule? Chemistry! Heat! Water! Where does all our water originate? If cosmic ray protons increase cloud cover and maybe precipitition, what do you suppose might happen during an Earthly encounter with a proton event from the Sun? Clouds & solar rain maybe? Sign of progress: Amazon.com is out of stock of "The Neglected Sun: How the Sun Precludes Climate Catastrophe; and the two most downloaded articles from Science Direct's Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics are 1) Nicola Scafetta's Test of astronomically-based harmonic climate model, and from the year 2000, 2) "The global atmospheric electric circuit, solar activity and climate change".
On 10 Dec 2013, M.T Glass wrote:
Has winter been cancelled this year?
Not even enough ice through the Autumn & Winter to fill my shot glass!
On 10 Dec 2013, Bspin wrote:
New World Low Temp.-------
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/09/coldest-ever-temperature-recorded-on-earth-found-in-antarctica/
On 10 Dec 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Not a subscriber. Hi Piers it seems that the global warming scientists have found a new way to claim theyr ideas. Since the whole CO2 story is falling apart bit by bit, Canadian Scientists from the university of Toronto claim they've discovered a new artificial gas of which the warming and green house effects are double of that of CO2. It concerns PFTBA (perfluorotributylamine) a gas used in the production of electric & electronic installations. They claim that 1 molecule of PFTBA has the same effect as 7.100 molecules of CO2. Now are they admitting that the CO2 story was a ly or are they trying something else because the CO2 story is loosing it's effect ?? I rest my case !
On 10 Dec 2013, Nigella wrote:
Interesting to see the varying degrees of freeze this morning in East Berks. Some areas have a very heavy ground frost & others no frost at all. Feels very chilly, as damp misty air swirling around that is clearly close to freezing in some places.
Was mild for this time of year yesterday and quite pleasant out in the sunshine. Beautiful rose tinted sunset. Was so lovely I forced colleagues to look out of the window with me!
On 09 Dec 2013, Karl (occasional sub.) wrote:
Temp currently -1 in New Forest, BBC website has a min of +7! How they can get it so wrong beggars belief. I've been analysing the December forecast and will wait to see what happens. Dont always believe the press or TV forecasts, the only way to be informed is with a Piers forecast. As for non subscribers wanting snow, a sure bet is that the Beeb etc won't be sure until they look out of the window!
On 09 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Amazingly mild this morning, 10˚ at 7.30 and apparently 11˚ overnight. Quite sunny at times and a good W breeze, during the day the temperature never got above 10˚ and was 6˚ by 9.30pm. Most enjoyable to work outside.
On 09 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Notice how much we hear about hot weather in Australia. Bet you heard something recently. You may not have heard about this last week === "A day after we posted images of fresh summer snow falling across the Australian Alps, we've updated our original story with new images that show the ground getting whiter... and whiter... and whiter...yes, it's December 5. The fifth day of summer. Your calendar is not wrong. Snow is not a freak event in southern Australia in the warmer months. A small dusting usually appears on the higher parts of the Australian Alps at least once each summer...[this current snow] is a little stronger than your typical out-of-season wintry blast" === http://bit.ly/1f2rvPO === disgraceful lies by omission because one thing about Aus, if you care to look at the records, hot is not news. Story via at comment at http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com
On 09 Dec 2013, asim wrote:
Does anyone know if the UK is going to get a winter?? Or is it all about USA? Again!
On 09 Dec 2013, Shaun wrote:
... below average temps, and it was something similar last year, so with 2 years on the trot with more than half the year below average and wetter than average. This must show that evening temperature rises are either very small or that the rate of cooling is sufficient enough to make the outcome unnoticeable.
On 09 Dec 2013, Shaun wrote:
@ CraigM
Fair enough, I understand the point of UHI, but I thought that was supposed to be limited to highly populated areas, I stand by my point that around my parts it has been more noticeably cold than it has warm over the last few years, including at night, saying that during day time in summer too.
But is that under the banner of AGW which is what the New Scientist was angling at I think. Where as what you are talking about is the wat the concrete structures for example, maintain heat for longer and release it slower, making the night time warmer (in simple terms). But that doesn't mean it's physically been warmer than before, just that the materials on the surface of the earth are holding heat better than previously, where as the AGW is Co2 driven (supposedly).
Even if you acknowledge that for many places what you are saying is true, it must either be very small changes or just out balanced by global cooling. According to the MO, 7 months of this year so far have been be
On 09 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Craig....It has to be the best sun-set I have ever seen. It was the complexity which struck me most, not just the depth of colour. I took shots with different colour balance settings, but due to the camera being confused by the extreme reds in the image, I had to add saturation to get anywhere near a realistic result...... I just checked what the sun was doing when I took the older 2011shot, and according to SpaceWeather.com there was a humungous great coronal hole pointing our way, and lots of sun-spots! >>> http://bit.ly/18Pf8rV <<< We expected thunderstorms that afternoon but only got the clouds plus very heavy rain.
On 09 Dec 2013, Fred wrote:
I've been looking at the incredible pictures that this cold wave causes state wide US. Incredible, and this is round one as Piers anticipates 3 snow deluges. My cousin lives in IDAHO and I have told her about the headline by Piers and advised her to buy the forecast. Site address emailed to her.
Round 2 will be on top of what they've had, yep I can see now why Piers said this is the most important winter weather month for them in 100 years.
I have a feeling attentions will turn to us this winter too.
On 09 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
..."After the heat sinks were added at Yosemite, temperature readings show a curious trend: minimum nighttime temperatures increased more than daytime temperatures. Watts says that's because the concrete structures store heat that is released at night, and that such a trend backs up the idea that the "heat sinks" are having an effect." === http://fxn.ws/1f0laEl === now have a look at the weather stations used for the climate surface temperature record ===
http://surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm === not forgetting the 'adjustments' which in almost every single case warm the present & cool the past to maintain the hockey stick. +++ @Russ got those 2 pics. Wow. They are so beautiful. Just a pale red sky here nothing like the depth of red you caught. Put them on site already === http://bit.ly/IL6VZ1
On 08 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
A really mild day today, 7˚C at 7.30 and rose to 9˚ by end of morning, overcast most of the day with only a glimpse of the sun between 2-3pm, SW breeze throughout. And wouldn't you know, at 10.30pm it was actually 10˚! And tomorrow the MO says it's going to get to 12˚, I'll hae tae consider wearin' ma shorts the morn, Ron! I knew there are parallels between Doric & Dutch but I know too little of Frysk as yet, thanks for the hint.
On 08 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
@Shaun night time maxima are increasing as expected with UHI. The structures we build from homes & factories, poly tunnels, roads (black) heating systems, exhausts etc all contribute accumulatively-every little helps. Buildings radiate the daytime heat out at night (think of ice on a bonnet melting from the engine). Also how many more of us are there on the planet, using and creating heat, often poorly insulated so we loose that heat. When do we need heat most? On cold still winter nights I often stargaze listening to the ambient sounds when boilers are often steaming away sending plumes of water vapour up. The difference between town & country is stark in winter. In towns ice forms later & clears earlier, we also clear it too or spread salt so reflective ice is lessened. Clouds also trap heat acting as a lid (why 2013 cold spell was not as deep as say less cloudy 2009/10). Remember the increases being spoken of that we need to act upon are in the tenths of a degree...
On 08 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
Hi piers, does anyone know when uk will get any snowmagdens??
On 08 Dec 2013, Shaun wrote:
New Scientist are on a roll with their AGW brainwashing with 3 articles spreading their warming nonsense.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029460.500-climate-slowdown-the-world-wont-stop-warming.html
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029451.400-the-night-the-heat-of-the-night-is-intensifying.html
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029461.600-is-it-time-to-stop-worrying-about-global-warming.html
I love how they TELL us with a matter of fact tone, rather than allowing people form their own opinion based on the highly disputable psuedo-science these journalists are using, because lets not forget thats all New Scientist is, a load of journalists. Also love how it's getting hotter at night, I must just be in the wrong part of the country to experience this, but some how leading to more severe drought lol. Hence the wettest drought on record, got to love their efforts.
On 08 Dec 2013, Gerry N Downs 45d 600ft wrote:
Christopher Booker's Telegraph column today points out the elephant in the room regarding windmills - output decline and maintenance costs. You have to watch the Warmish on this one since they love to quote capacity and ignore the actual output. Onshore wind is 25% efficient [I did recall an independent charity report putting this lower at 21%] when installed but over 15 years drops to just 5%. Offshore wind is 45% efficient [same report I think had this down at 33%] when installed but drops to 12% over 15 years and with much higher maintenance costs due to its location. The taxpayer bribe for off-shore wind makes it 6 TIMES more expensive than the cost of coal generation. These decline figures come from operational experience now we have been blighted by them for long enough. Possibly explains the sightings of derelict windmills in the US where taxpayers' cash built them but was not there to maintain them so it was deemed uneconomic to repair them. Uneconomic sums up wind.
On 08 Dec 2013, Mark@ Manchester wrote:
Very mild here for time of year, sun breaking through but no clear skies yet. Guess its set to be a mild December regard temps with occasional fluctuations in weather type. I do still feel a change in this set up is due late month into next year. I go off the old saying The lull before the storm, and on a personal note I hope the storm contains lots of snow. Keep up the good work everyone
On 08 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Paddy and Saskia. There is close relation between Scots-Doric and Frysk that extends to not only to vocabulary, but also to grammar. We also share the battle ground between Arctic an Atlantic airmasses too of course.
On 08 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Craig - The story about the ship used to plug a hole in the dyke at Nieuwerkerk aan den IJssel in 1953 is even more interesting. The breach was located in the 'Schielands Hoge Zeedijk' and was the base for the well known story of Hans Brinker. Here's a picture of the actual ship being placed at the breached dyke http://bit.ly/J2hjwE. Currently the dyke - located between the cities of Schiedam and Gouda - protects about 3 million people against floods. It originated in the 13th Century and construction started at the order of Aleid, daughter of Floris IV of Holland. Except deliberate breaches made in 1574 - in order to prevent Spanish troops from invading the city of Leiden - the dyke has never really been breached completely. And the story of the ship is not unique! During the floods of 1682 and 1717, locals also used ships to plug a hole at the exact same location. The Dutch are, indeed, innovative where water management is concerned ;-)
On 08 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Joint award for Ambulance Chasing Climate Vulture and Climate Moron of the day goes to "Guy Shrubsole, Friends of the Earth climate campaigner, [who] said: “Following the devastating damage caused by the biggest storm surge across the east coast in the past 60 years, it’s unforgivable that the government’s future flood insurance plan excludes consideration of climate change… "Its own figures show that global warming will put tens of thousands more British homes at risk of flooding in future." The environment secretary must stop playing Russian roulette with people's homes and livelihoods through his cavalier approach to flood risk." === http://bit.ly/1dakLOn === The irony is what powers the machinery to create/maintain these defences? Cranes, helicopters, boats, ships (great story Saskia looking into that), polypropylene bags made from hydrocarbons, the pumps? Yep the bad CO2.
Are they solar or wind powered? If we did that in the 50s we'd still be building our dams.
On 08 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
@Saskia, thanks. Should have said I was referring to the British coast & alarmism/media hype here, where it was bad but no 1953. The storm, named 'Cyclone Bodil' on wikipedia now, was aligned far worse for the low countries where in terms of surge was on a par/exceeded 53 event as you said (Holland has a horrible history of flooding, remember well being taught about the great engineering feat of the dykes). Good AFP article covering all of Europe "In northern Germany, the Elbe River harbour of Hamburg was under more than six metres of water -- the second highest level since records were first kept in 1825 -- leaving only the tops of lamp posts sticking out of the freezing waters...Blackouts hit 400,000 households in Poland and affected 50,000 people in Sweden" Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Slovakia also affected http://yhoo.it/1f84Yli
On 08 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS - WELL DONE ON THESE RESEARCH COMMS - WILL USE. Now on business SASKIA (and of course other Euro forecast users) you must have noticed above we now have an ALL WINTER MONTHS 60% OFF OFFER for Euro forecasts - ie Eu30 now for the three months (on issue) PLEASE PROMOTE!! It's the same as Br+Ir 45d deal but in Euros instead of pounds. Tweet and retweet - mention it on blogs and facebook - email it in whatever language you can. Point out WeatherAction predicted both these recent storms Oct 28 (south track) and Dec 5 Scotland / N sea storm type of track. THANK YOU. Piers
On 08 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - In 1703, thousands perished in both England and The Netherlands during a horrific storm of which Daniel Defoe wrote: "No pen could describe it, nor tongue express it, nor thought conceive it unless by one in the extremity of it." In 1651, thousands - possible as many as 15.000 - died in the Dutch and German Wadden Sea area. We are, indeed, fortunate that engineers have made coastal areas a safer place to live. And it's very unfortunate that money nowadays is spent on prolonging the Warmist hype instead of strengthening the coastal defenses. For example, the sea dykes on the Wadden island Ameland were damaged in scores of places last Thursday. If another storm hits before everything has been repaired ... God help those that live there!
On 08 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Craig - Water levels in The Netherlands reached the highest point since 1953 at 3m99, 20 centimeters higher than expected! This was 50 centimeters less than the Great Flood, but still ... things could have gone drastically wrong. Coincidentally, both this storm and the one in 1953 were basically a "two-part event". This storm died down in the beginning of Thursday evening, only to rev up again during the night and continue the next day. In 1953, half of the 1800+ victims died during Saturday night, the other half Sunday afternoon. Many more would have died if a local mayor had not ordered an 18m long ship to be used to close a breach in a dyke, preventing flooding of much of the Zuid-Holland province. I guess sticking a finger in didn't suffice that time. And here, too, there have been many more disastrous floods long before any CO2 levels would have risen. The Christmas flood of 1717 claimed 14.000 lives in The Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia. [cont.]
On 07 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
...cont... English Heritage have a good pdf on Roman & Medieval flood defences. Sure some readers here walk these apparently natural but man made structures === http://bit.ly/1iKYZaY === Our forebears blamed gods or witches for storms & flooding, we now have a modern form of superstition, practised by shrill ambulance chasing climate vultures such as Geoffrey Lean in the Telegraph or Leo Hicks in the Guardian. They are saying, or implying, that we have offended the Carbon Gods & the only way to stop these unprecedented storms getting worse is to cut carbon emissions-which if taken literally means sacrificing the old, the poor & heaven knows how many others indirectly or directly so we can build & HEAVILY SUBSIDISE prayer wheels which even if built offshore require short mechanical life, toxic parts from toxic mines to cull birds by the thousands (millions?) & don't bloody work anything like the green packaging. I almost want to go back to sacrificing animals the old way.
On 07 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
An overcast day that started with -1˚C at 7.30 and then gradually turned milder as it went on, rising to 4˚, winds mostly SW'ly & light. On the way home tonight there were many moths flying about in the headlights. After the cold blast we had, 4˚ seems really mild, we're enjoying it while it lasts. - Saskia, thanks for that link, very interesting, I'm fascinated by languages. Glad to know there were no more stormy adventures.
On 07 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Kellydown has this great comment over at Bishop Hill "Unfortunately for the rabid scaremongers henceforward known as the warmish, the North Sea storm of 31 Jan/1 Feb 1953 was the worst for at least 250 years. It reached a lowest pressure of 966mb (that produces 0.5 metres of sea level rise just due to the inverse barometer) and the accompanying strong northerly winds pushed lots of water towards the funnel of the Dover Strait. It produced a storm surge along the east coast of around 4 metres, varying from 3.28m at Great Yarmouth to 4.67m (over 15 feet - yikes!) at Sheerness.The recent storm produced a surge of around 2 metres, varying from 1.2m at North Shields to 3.0m at Sheerness." He concludes "However much hype is applied to the after effects it was definitely not in the same class as the 1953 storm and it may be a very long time before any storm comes close." Timing & winds is everything...cont...
On 07 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
One thing to bear in mind with the storm surge is the decades of preparation we had and that we did not need "climate change" to motivate policy makers. I was taught it in geography at school & the problem on N Sea erosion. I found a MetO report for schools === "severe floods struck the region in 1570, 1825, 1894, 1916 and 1953. All of them occurred despite the area having extensive flood defence systems - sometimes nature's power is just too strong" === http://bit.ly/1dWJ07q === all without 'unprecidented' CO2 either! The sad fact is some warmists don't believe in flood protection as it takes focus away from the main theme -less emissions. We owe a debt of gratitude to the engineers who designed and those whose hands built our sea defences - knowing it is always a matter of *when* not *if* - and we can be thankful they did it unhindered by climate fanaticism....cont...
On 07 Dec 2013, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Prince Harry's South pole trip called off due to poor weather conditions!!!
http://news.sky.com/story/1179233/prince-harrys-south-pole-race-is-off
On 07 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
MetO have their report for the Piers storm out. Thanks to Paul Homewood for highlighting on hit blog notalotofpeopleknowthat "Most of the damage was associated with falling trees - still in full leaf at this time of year - and +++this storm is judged to be within the top ten most severe storms to affect southern England in the autumn in the last 40 years+++. However, it was not in the same category as the Great Storm of 16 October 1987." Winter storms are far more frequent and powerful in part why leaves are gone from the trees by then. Worth read in full. http://bit.ly/1aJDopw +++ Quite a few doubts about the claims regarding the storm surge. I note the Environment Agency say it was higher than '53 +++in places+++ i.e. maybe not as widespread & crucially in the same places. It looks to be in the NE as the SE not as bad-it certainly didn't seem aligned the same to push into the shallower English channel. The 53 storm was on a different scale.
On 07 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
BOB THANKS You are (becoming) a star! Yes true on your other point but we have to destroy the whole pyramid of anti-science and rescue Svensmark from being a fall guy - see my Vid http://bit.ly/1csIRp9
On 07 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Nov USA forecast review video project nearly complete. But with so much time on learning curve, data collection, and formatting, my obs on the video will be shorter on this first one than future productions. Piers, it seems to me that whether Svensmark is 110% vindicated historically or not, regarding a cosmic ray influence on cloud cover and temperature, it will have no bearing on the veracity of what you've said about short-term solar activity and magnetic conditions affecting weather.
On 07 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
From @RyanMaue on twitter "Since 1979, when my high-resolution NCEP CFSR [model based] reanalysis starts, this Arctic blast is coldest/earliest (sub-15°) for CONUS [Continental USA] spatial [smoothing] avg." About 2 wks early - now remember our late spring. MIA signs of a shortening of the growing seasons
On 07 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
PIERS - Thank you, glad to be able to help ;-) Will clean up the design this weekend and get you the end result for (mass) production a.s.a.p. Suggestion: put the www address on the back. / @Paddy - Not many people are aware of our sub-culture within The Netherlands, or even that Frysk is the 2nd national language here. If you want to know more (and have the time and inclination) take a look here http://bit.ly/1dWBtWr
OT - Overcast and slightly warmer than yesterday. All storm alerts have been cancelled by now. Some damage in our area but fortunately we escaped the worst by being situated within the village.
On 07 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Northern Isles (Orkney & Shetland) Wind has abated but woke this morning sat7th to around 2 inches of lying snow, dry and blowing around in the occasional light gusts. Temps around 1-2 degC first thing but expected to rise later this morning, and looks like there is already a thaw setting in.
Still slippy and slidey on those roads, so anyone in the Northern regions of Scotland need to take care.
On 07 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
CONTINUED Re Lockwood's drivel. So He misuses 11yr data to deceive. [As an aside Svensmark who is genuine as opposed to a 'double agent' but still wrong smooths out 11yr data to get the smoothed data to move with 22yr temps when the fact is the 11yr data which his theory holds to be a driver fails to match obs temps. And another aside Lockwood 'promotes' Svensmark (& I repeat I have time for S not for L) as 'THE Solar driver theory' theory in order to shoot it down because it doesn't even get over the first hurdle. L even berated me on BBC Radio for 'not believing in the (Svensmark) solar theory' I slammed into him and funnily enough I havnt been back. It made good radio my BBC contact said - but too good (ie truth) for BBC he didnt say]. Lockwood on Jet Stream? Yes You've guessed it: Despicable lies & drivel (polite comment) FACT The JS is a world system, these wavy (high k number) states or stronger meanders are WORLD-WIDE not just Eu (& happen in S hem also, with differences).
On 07 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL Continued === BEN G Yes you ask about Prof Mike Lockwood. I would describe his input into debate as like that of Judas Ischariot (taking the view that Judas Ischariot was a Roman double agent rather than a disaffected freedom fighter who wanted 'Freedom in our time' rather than having to wait for heaven). He publishes things he knows to be lies or deception (assuming he is not terminally ignorant or stupid) take this page 9 from 2007 http://www.nerc.ac.uk/publications/planetearth/2007/autumn/aut07-news.pdf which is mentioned in my press release (when it was re-cycled by BBC lie machine/Lockwood again) of 2009 here: http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/2010/World%20cooling%20has%20set-in%20warns%20astrophysicist.pdf Sorry about link length. Obviously (should be fact to Lockwood) since solar effect is magnetic 22yr then HALF the time it will not move with the 11yr cycle of whatever and he raises this bogey as 'evidence' that the sun don't do it. DRIVEL Ctd...
On 07 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL === Before I carry on I have been wondering if you Commenters and CommentReaders pay more attention to the main post above or to these Comms. I dont mind, just wondering. Sometimes one sees Q's here which are answered above or were answered in a previous post. === EDITING COMMS. We never (normally) do that, they either go up (95% leaving aside the machine-viagra-WordSalad spam which is about 1/3 of total input and presumably sent by Greenies who reflect their minds in such texts) but here is one EXCEPTION - EDITED BECAUSE IT GIVES AWAY FORECAST FUTURE CONTENT - READ THE RULES GUYS & GALS >> FROM "TONYTONY": "As a lover of winter I finally purchased 3 months reports and to my..(taken out)..on piers accurate forecasts just wish I lived in ..(taken out)..so wait with excitement for those but I must congratulate piers on his accuracy" << Thanks TT === SASKIA - (Y)OUR T SHIRT Brill DO IT. We 've done Tshirts in past If you do this we can pass on stuff 4 home producing!
On 06 Dec 2013, danny wrote:
THEE MAINMAN, STORMING PIERS CORBYN IS
ABSOLUTEY LIGHT YEARS AHEAD OF THE
COMMON PURPOSE RUN MET OFFICE... AT PREDICTING
THE WEATHER NOT ONLY CORECTLY, BUT WEEKS IN ADVANCE WITH FEROCITY PLUS TAKE ACTION WARNINGS.
ANOTHER VICTORY PIERS, AND PIERS I HOPE YOUR FEELING PROUD BECAUSE YOU REALLY DESERVE IT MATE.
CONGRATULATIONS FOR (THE PIERS CORBYN STORM 2)
BEST WISHES, DANNY, BOB & DAVE MY LURCHERS..
On 06 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Very clear and frosty overnight, -2˚C, crackling underfoot, lovely sunny morning, by early afternoon temp rose to 0˚, damn heat, Ron, mn; I'm nae sure fit I'll be wearin' on Sunday fan the tempretiar is sposed tae be 11 bloomin' degrees (end of local broadcast). Then the clouds moved in from the N, keeping the cold well in but at least it only got to -1˚ by 10pm. It was a great winter's day, frozen ground allowing digger work without making a kirning mess. I don't have the time to look up other forecasters, so all comments here gratefully read, but I know which horse I'm backing. Saskia – I've never seen written Frisian before, wow! Hope you'll withstand whatever is coming next.
On 06 Dec 2013, Bspin wrote:
The Myth of Measuring Sea Level to the Millimetre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4&feature=youtu.be------
It seems It's all based on a Model that can only measure to the Metre.
The Irony of the Accuracy
On 06 Dec 2013, Asim wrote:
Piers corbyn is the best!! He has smashed it. His forecast is bang on the money! rock on!! May buy jan forecast does anyone know when or how I can get Feb uk forecast as well?
On 06 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
I've been thinking about this t-shirt you guys keep mentioning. How about this? http://bit.ly/IWeJYU (Not on public display btw, so don't worry)
On 06 Dec 2013, Rob wrote:
Looking forward to that GFS warmth as it will allow me to claw back some of the recent rises in gas prices by allowing me to turn the heating down!
On 06 Dec 2013, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Hey thats a great idea WEATHERACTION.COM T- shirts.That would certainly bring in more subscribers.Storms in Scotland again according to my 30d forecast bang on cue followed by snow too!!!
On 06 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Hey That,s a good idea Weather Action T Shirts, Maybe the cartoon of piers done by Josh would be good Just a idea.
A lovely day here sunshine and a little wind , sorry Breeze..
On 06 Dec 2013, Rich T. Biscuit wrote:
Hi Piers, T-shirt and shorts time again, next week...These L.I.A Autumns / Winters are a sinch !!!
On 06 Dec 2013, Ben G wrote:
"Piers - what do you make of Mike Lockwood's comments that the weak sunspot activity seen over the last 15 years will probably drive cold and volatile weather primarily in Europe. But this cannot be characterized as an "Ice Age" because the effect of jet stream blocking is tightly regionally located in Western Europe. Is there any truth to this line of argument? For example, will we see severe southern hemisphere effects as well?"
I'm not Piers - but this is nonsense. If you look at the most negative NAO winters, the mean jet (+ cloud bands) across the Atlantic is way South. If this becomes the norm, then you introduce Sea Temperature cooling across the Atlantic - which will leave a footprint on global temperatures. I'd write more, but I'm running close to the allowed characters! :)
On 06 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Russ - Here's a link that will get you started on your own research with regard to sea levels ;-) http://bit.ly/18nPeZs And FYI, you can bake bread on a camping stove as well, for example, like this http://bit.ly/1bmwkmU
On 06 Dec 2013, Rich T. Biscuit wrote:
Hi Piers,
T-shirt and shorts time again, next week...These L.I.A Autumns / Winters are a sinch !!!
On 06 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - And here's some pictorial news: water over the dykes in Fryslân http://bit.ly/18cNQLf / High water at nearby Lauwersoog harbour http://bit.ly/1bm8SX9 / Rotterdam quays flooded http://bit.ly/1bMhuYN / Trees at our village intersection http://bit.ly/1aFd4ws / Photo impression storm, which coincided with our national (much debated ;-) Sinterklaas or Saint Nicholas celebration http://bit.ly/INKsL2 / beached ship at Holwerd http://bit.ly/IHljS0.
On 06 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Currently we're still experiencing a hefty 9 or 10 BF storm in the Eastern Wadden area (where we live). Intermittent rain, hail and (wet) snow is causing traffic disruptions, we still kept the kids home from school. One very severe gust caused our whole house to shake on its foundations in the middle of the night, waking up the whole family. Fortunately, as our village is situated on a typical Frisian 'terp' or artificial dwelling mound, we did not experience any flooding. More news: water levels in Zeeland province were the highest since 1953; storm damages between 5 and 10 million euros; water levels receding slower than expected or hoped; ferry services to Wadden Islands still cancelled due to flooded quays; Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment ship broke its moorings at Holwerd, Wadden area; numerous emergency calls regarding flooding this morning. [cont.]
On 06 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Paddy, Aberdeenshire: Och well according to GFS you'll be in your Bermuda Shorts and Hawaian Shirts before Xmas---aye richt loon.
On 06 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
BBC are stating that yesterdays storm surge was the worst on record. So CraigM, is it the worst on record? Because when the Beeb make these statements, you usually post a couple of days later proving that it's a load of cobblers! And you are very adept at searching out this kind of info. They lie about almost everything weather related soooo.....over to you?
On 06 Dec 2013, Michael wrote:
Note to Russ NE - you sound as if you are enjoying the prospect of snow and severe weather.
On 05 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Note to self: Check list_ Big box of matches, several boxes of candles, several LED torches and LED headtorches with boxes of spare battery cells. Store of emergency supplies e.g. powdered spuds, lots of baked beans, flour and dried yeast (but only if the power is still on for the breadmaker), but it means fresh bread when the supermarket shelves are empty, which can be stripped in 24hrs when it snows heavily. Fleece throw over blankets and extra duvets if the power does go bye bye. If the temperature drops below freezing with a strong wind, the house will get very cold, very quickly, in a matter of a few hours. Camping stove and a bag full of gas cannisters for cooking. Ten 5 litre bottles of spring water. Cigarette lighters with several cans of spare gas. Large lead acid car battery and adapter to run laptop to watch films and charge up mobile phone and ipod........... Are we prepared? Oh yes! I remember the Stone Age 70s no central heating and draughty sash windows in icy weather...
On 05 Dec 2013, John Trudgian wrote:
Piers - what do you make of Mike Lockwood's comments that the weak sunspot activity seen over the last 15 years will probably drive cold and volatile weather primarily in Europe. But this cannot be characterized as an "Ice Age" because the effect of jet stream blocking is tightly regionally located in Western Europe. Is there any truth to this line of argument? For example, will we see severe southern hemisphere effects as well?
On 05 Dec 2013, Richard .T.(45DAY SUB) wrote:
This is a write up of the days events ,very eventful but thankfully the new sea wall here at Redcar has stood up to the tidal surge thanks Richard.
http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/widespread-flooding-causes-chaos-across-6377309
On 05 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Northern Isles (Orkney&Shetland) - High winds and frequent snow showers all day. This morning severe gales with a sustained wind of 50+ mph gusting to +70mph, now have dropped to 33mph guting to around 50mph and with temps dropping below zero the roads are going to be icy tonight and tomorrow so take care if you have to go out at all. Barometer reading overnight last night was down to 965 hPa now currently this has risen to 1009 hPa and rising. Winds are set to decrease overnight and during tomorrow .
WHERE WAS THE MET OFFICE BE PREPARED/TAKE ACTION WARNING.
(All of Scotland, which I was monitoring, appeared to be on the lowest level alert possible, which is the yellow, Be Aware warning, The reality is it should have been upgraded on wednesday morning at the latest for TAKE ACTION).
On 05 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
...cont... I haven't been able to see what level the meteoalarm website had for Scotland+N Eng+N Ireland (who are also affected) yesterday. What are the thoughts of our Scottish readers? +++ just to clarify the two dead was not for Scotland, one person died in Nottinghamshire. Also the 100K without power figure may be Britain as a whole (at least 80K in Scot), conflicting figures being reported by different agencies & subject to change. Stay safe everyone, especially those near the coasts around the North Sea. +++ Blustery day today & saw a leaf fly up vertical some 25-30ft - not in a vortex just straight up! Calmed down a bit as the rain came & fairly quiet now. Winds W/SW. Frosty this morning (~-2) but warmed to 10C. Was cool in strong winds but dew points, which rose up to ~7/8C then plummeted with the rain & barely above freezing now (temps about 5C). Could be precarious in morning.
On 05 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
...cont...."Amber: Be prepared. +++There is an increased likelihood of bad weather affecting you+++, which could potentially disrupt your plans and possibly cause travel delays, road and rail closures, interruption to power and the potential risk to life and property. +++Amber means you need to be prepared to change your plans and protect you, your family and community from the impacts of the severe weather+++ based on the forecast from the Met Office" === Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities." Link === http://bit.ly/193G4lG === Several areas in Germany with winds forecast ~86+mph are red warning not to go outdoors === http://www.meteoalarm.eu/
On 05 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
The Met released an Amber warning for Scot+parts of N Eng yesterday. Main focus however has been on the coastal flooding - presumably as Scotland doesn't matter that much? 100K without power, two dead, a police red alert 'don't drive' (now cancelled) and NO RED WARNING. Link=== http://bit.ly/18FLtBp === After reading the MetO warning guide page (which they updated today) I'm stunned they didn't go to RED (I'll go over the criteria in next comment). Remember back in Dec 2011 with similar ~80mph winds forecast they went RED. To quote transport Minister Keith Brown "They have issued a red alert, which suggests speeds could even exceed 90mph," he said.
"As well as possible bridge closures, we need to prepare for blown over vehicles and trees."
http://bbc.in/1hABIah === I've also just heard on the BBC (as part of the story on floods for the east coast) winds exceeding 90mph were reported at "low levels" in Scotland (142mph reported on Aonach Mor, Highlands)...cont...
On 05 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Was woken by the wind shaking the floor of our bedroom, sounds dramatic but isn't, always happens when the wind creates suction through the open window. Howling a W'ly gale with really heavy rain starting after 6am. The worst of the wind seemed to pass between 6 – 7.30, the house was making creaking noises that happen only on rare occasions such as today. Looking at the thermometer I could see that we'd had 7˚C overnight, by 7.30 it was back down to 4˚ & feeling raw in the wind. The top came off one of our trees and a polycarbonate sheet came off our son's conservatory sited at the back of the house in the lee of the wind. The shelterbelt we planted 16 years ago is really making a difference now in SW & W storms. It started sleeting by 11, now at 4.30pm we have a dusting of snow, temp is at -1˚C, wind moderate. Piers is bang on the nail once again.
On 05 Dec 2013, Wendy wrote:
Just had a snow storm in the High Peak ,Derbyshire. Very high winds and rain all day.
45 day subs.
,Quite nervous driving this morning past mature roadside trees,wildly waving in the strong winds!
Everything blowing around on the roads, refuse waste bins a particular hazard! High sided vehicles driving very slowly over the high routes in Derbyshire.
On 05 Dec 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Hi Piers, not a subscriber yet, but I'm a real believer of you. People sometimes look strange when I tell them were at the start of an LIA and it makes people think after the last winters and summers we had. I mostly follow you during winter, cause it intrest me more. Don't know why hahaha.
Current situation in Gent (BELGIUM) :
Winds are picking up to about 50 km/h. Temp = currently 7°C. It looks like we're going to miss out on the rain this time. Looking at the radar the rain is going to Holland and Germany.
The Belgium coastline has it tougher with more wind and at the same time spring tide this afternoon and tonight. They've prepared themselves for that.
We should get some hail and melting snow tomorrow, but in the south they'll get snow tomorrow.
On 05 Dec 2013, Richard .T. wrote:
Had a rough windy and wet day so far in Redcar ,we actually were on bbc news 24!!,gusts around 70mph ..but we need to get past high tide which is between 5.22pm and the following hour ,so fingers crossed no flooding and fingers crossed for the rest of you thanks,,Richard reporting for Piers Storm watch.
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Gusts of 132 km/hr have been measured, but it almost seems like the storm has died down. Not sure whether to trust the quiet, feels like there's more to come. Frisian Water Board has decided to activate supervision of the dykes. They're expecting the worst later this night when high tide arrives. No damages here, as far as we can see. rest of the province has had damage but not on the scale of October 28.
On 05 Dec 2013, Colin Kirk Subs 45day - Lowestoft wrote:
Wow Piers! Spot on again! Well done and thanks.
On 05 Dec 2013, Rob wrote:
West Central Scotland .Survived the storm with only two tiles off the roof. Thankfully the highest winds were short lived peaking between 0630 and 0800. Now sheltering from violent and squally showers of rain and hail. Cold looks to to be short lived with the GFS still going for prolonged mild to very mild all the way to mid month, with the warmth spreading all the way up into Norway and Sweden. Maybe it's just me but whenever the sun comes out it feels to have more power than I would expect this time of year giving off a noticeable warmth as if it is burning hotter at the moment. This makes me feel as though the Exacta forecast will fall on it's face.
On 05 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
@Steve Joe B has never gone for LIA his forecasts are based very much on oceanic cycles and the current cooling being PDO driven. When the AMO goes cool then we cool further but he's only looking at us dropping back to mid 20th C temps. The big outlier for him is volcanoes which would induce further cooling. He is a standard metrologist following his father in looking for patterns & understanding their impact, what he doesn't do is look at/predict the larger factors that drive climate long term and drive the oceans. That's where solar/lunar factors come in and the theories of electric universe/planetary interactions offer more support for LIA/MIA or the even bigger outlier of a new glaciation. Safe to say bar the odd blip from an El Nino, cooling will continue (CET down ~1.5C) but how much further & for how long?
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Now 10BF at Vlieland (Wadden) island in Fryslân; predicted water level at Harlingen harbour +330 NAP; 30% chance of reaching critical point of +370NAP at Flushing (Vlissingen); Estofex extreme weather update http://estofex.org/; Royal Dutch Sea Rescue during a practice run this afternoon https://twitter.com/Postemamedia/status/408572887654604800/photo/1
On 05 Dec 2013, Catherine wrote:
Had a very 'interesting' drive into the centre of Glasgow this morning through the gales forecast by Piers for Scotland. Quite scary, dodging wheelie bins strewn all over the roads. Car nearly hit by a flying food recycling bin. Constant buffeting by gales plus lashing rain all in the dark of a Scottish winter morning. Calmer now, though still a few gusts, but getting colder. Brr. Occurring on 5th rather than 6th but it was forecast in mid Nov so still impressive
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
For all of you airplane enthousiasts ... here's a live stream of planes landing at Schiphol Airport. http://t.co/2yuTpgj8NT
On 05 Dec 2013, dr (non-sub) wrote:
According to news, Scotland is having 100mph winds, and 142mph has been recorded on Aanoch Mor. No red warning from MO. How bad does it have to be for the MO to issue a red warning? I note that there are also reports of trucks being blown over by the wind.
I can only assume that the MO weren't expecting this.
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
CODE RED issued by the national KNMI weather station; schools in Fryslân have all been closed as of 10 AM; wind up to 9 BF; rain, sometimes hail.
On 05 Dec 2013, Mark @ Manchester wrote:
Very wet and windy here with sudden strong gusts , seems to have intensified in the last hour since 10am. I do love all these comments and agree that we are next to see a quantity of snow by month end into 2014. I can not help but see some remarkable similarities in weather patterns ie mild, then cold then stormy then mild then extreme cold between 1947, 1963 and our current weather pattern...just a armatures gut feeling
On 05 Dec 2013, GerryB(winter subscriber)SE Essex wrote:
Spectacular sunset yesterday over Thames Estuary, lasted all of 40 minutes with combination of Stratocumulus, Stratocumulus Radiatus & Cirrus Fibratus.
This morning overcast Stratus with odd glimpse of sun! Wind already quite gusty bringing large showers of oak leaves from trees at bottom of garden.
Cannot understand Spaewife whenever we have power cut we merely use match to light our gas hobs!!
On 05 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
We had thundersnow here in Highlland Perthshire and there have been power outages and trees down on roads. Snow is getting to lower levels and the chill is setting in.
On 05 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Northern Isles (Orkney&Shetland) - High winds and frequent hail showers accompanied by thunder and lightning overnight. This morning severe gales with a sustained wind of 50+ mph gusting to +70mph, and frequent electricity supply drop-outs. Frequent heavy snow showers are forecast for thursday and friday with temps down to around 1degC during the day and -3degC overnight. Barometer reading down to 965 hPa overnight now currently this morning rising to 989 hPa. Take care anyone on the roads, it's going to be slippy.
On 05 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
CraigM this is a snip it of what Joe Bastardi said yesterday on a blog.....
While all this is directly correlated and can be seen in predictable natural events (four years ago I was showing how the winters of '12-'13 and '13-'14 could be quite cold based on a theory I picked up from some meteorologists I know down in Houston), to me, it's not a sign that catastrophic global cooling – a return to the Little Ice Age given the expectations of society today – is on the way. Nor would I point to something like this as a sign of impending doom, even if I want to make my point about the cooling I believe is already underway (the data shows it). My forecast is that by 2030, global temperatures are back where they were in 1978
So he is saying that Piers is wrong about LIA as i read it.
Nice day here after a frost, much more wind leaves coming off the trees.
On 05 Dec 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:
My word what an interesting drive 30 miles north of Manchester this morning. OK so I was going over the hills from Bury to Blackburn but its not every day that you drive around a corner and see someones metal garage destroying itself in the road. The owner turned up and between three of us we managed to get it over a metal gate and into a field but one thing is for sure, no one will be parking a car inside that structure ever again. I can only imagine what it is like north of the border because the gusts here were at blowing people over speeds. Whatever that is. Raining, cold at 5 degrees and all we need now is some snow.
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - Back again OT - The Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier (built after the 1953 disaster) has been closed last night. The last time this happened was in 2007. Expected water levels are just 50 cm lower than 1953. We're in for a rough one.
On 05 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Russ - The fact that power lines are still placed above ground is, in itself, definitely up to parr. This is what causes many problems, in the USA as well. Besides that, I have the sneaking suspicion that power companies are actually playing thir cards really well. It's all about the money, isn't it? So the more dependable you can make people on your product, the more money you can ask for it. Completely unscrupulous, but that seems to be the ruling mentality with these companies. They actually don't care if elderly people die of cold.
@Spaewife - Matches? ;-)
OT - Wind is starting to pick up. Last night was a beautifully clear sky with extremely bright stars. Temps felt colder already. The national KNMI still hasn't issued a Code Red, which in my point of vview is totally irresponsible. However, referring back to what I just said to Russ: keeping the economy going is more important than anything. It's makes one sick to one's stomach :-\ [cont]
On 05 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Road blocked in the village earlier this morning, by a blown over tree, but no snow even on our 300m high local hill, but snow on the local 'Munro'
On 04 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Brilliantly clear start, frost on the ground, thermometer reading 0˚C at 7.30, rising to 4˚ by midday, but the frost stayed on the ground in parts sheltered from the wind. It was a gorgeous sunny day all along, cloud only started coming in after 9pm and at 10.30pm the temp had stabilised at 3˚, the WSW wind getting up more seriously. I wonder what track this Atlantic Low will take tomorrow, depending on that we might get a battering or not.
On 04 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Note none of thile following relates to Piers forecast for Dec. Just my usually winter summary.===JoeBastardi: "Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas" I hope so & look backs show it possible but a lot of mild signals for Dec. However if we get a jetstream shift & a low comes in it could drag in cold air. overall winter cold looks good even if only a month. BtW I don't think Joe means a freeze (yet anyway) but the cold in Europe is always a good sign. Last winter the cold waxed and waned & this winter is following suit in the pushes of cold. A long way off and outside model outlook periods but a block building, where is crucial to cold chances. What they show currently is warmer temps under high pressure, but SE could be cooler and if it stays overcast or foggy then avg to slightly below temps. Little sign of rain for the S/SE continuing the dry overall pattern for 2013.
On 04 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Russ.... agree entirely, and what bright spark decided that gas appliances (ovens and hobs) required an electronic ignition, which incidentally, when there is a power cut you therefore cannot use your oven/hob to cook on. D'Oh! (It's pretty difficult to find a modern home cooking appliance that doesn't have electronic ignition).
On 04 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Dave I hope too that James Madden is right as I'd love it (not so sure when the bills come in though*) but he does rinse and repeat the cold predictions each year all winter. I have no faith in his forecasts but he's on the right track. *or not if the power lines go as Russ points out. I think it was a million without power from the Piers storm, imagine what a winter storm (blizzards/freezing rain) would do in the highly populated south. +++ Temps rose overnight from ~4-7C with dewpoints (DP) going from ~2-6C. Milder. Very light rain early but when the skies started clearing the DPs dropped back to ~2C so cold feel. Temps lagged by a couple of hrs. DPs now below freezing & temps ~2C. Both dropping. Little one commented on how beautiful the skies were. Lots of cirrus types and a long tapered strand stretching across the horizon (NNE-SSE) framed by the low sun in the sky. A sure sign of polar air incoming.
On 04 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL! USA CONTRIBUTORS - BIG WELCOME! - ROBERT & BOB WEBER. BOB That's really great an independent monitor of our USA forecasts please Thank you. We have been pleased with results but someone there plus YTube v v good. ROBERT YES good point you are right California is hard for data reasons at times too. QUESTION FOR USA How to get more subs? It's already cheaper than Br+Ir and numbers are going up but slow build up despite twitter and going on sites - eg AccuWeather - at times. Maybe YT will do it! ALL in USA + any with USA contacts need to do a bit if poss - share this months forecast to get others to consider getting next month. === Br+Ir+Eu storm coming looks spot on over B+I. We had it less Southward over Scandinavia so interesting to see detail. Thanks Piers
On 04 Dec 2013, Josh wrote:
All this news on the USA getting alot of snow soon is making me jealous!! Piers please tell me this is what we will get this winter??
On 04 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Awesome point Russ!
On 04 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Watching the way the UK weather has changed over the past 6 years or so gives me the jitters. Those white Christmasses back in the last LIA were ok if you had a huge log fire, but gas central heating systems were never designed for deep, prolonged cold in UK homes. Electricity is the weakest link and when the power lines come down, everything stops. No lights, no heating pump, no hot water. I mean, what bright spark thought that an electric immersion heater would be good back up in case the central heating boiler/pump stopped working? Isn't it amazing that the 1% variation in solar output is ridiculed as being of no importance, yet an almost unmeasurable addition to a 0.003% concentration of a trace gas is used as THE most important change facing mankinds future? Out of all the con-jobs we have faced over the past 200 years this must rate as THE biggest! When the power lines come down, it won't matter where the power comes from, even if the wind still blows. Dumb dumb dumb!
On 04 Dec 2013, Robert wrote:
New subscriber here, NW Calif.
Apparently, the bitter cold forecast for the Western half of USA Dec. 7-8 has hit 4 days ahead of schedule. It will hit again on Saturday with even greater cold (in Calif.), which happens to be the 7th of Dec.
So, the 1-6th Dec USA map forecast ends up being split into 2 periods, and the Dec 7-8 map forecast is still currently viable.
Not bad for a Calif. forecast, which is notoriously difficult to time.
On 04 Dec 2013, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Piers forecasted US tornadoes for Nov 17, and high risk earthquake/volcanic (R5 & QV5). Tornadoes happened + 7 volcanic eruptions. WOW! Nov forecast review coming soon on new YT channel. Will announce. Strictly using past forecasts and actual events to illustrate Piers' skill and reasoning, to the best of my ability. Lots of snow shovelling here in N Mich (45th parallel). Ski resorts opened early in Nov. Inland lakes frozen quick during forecasted cold snap. More USA cold weather records this year than in past 20 years. Many recent science papers discussing Dalton or Maunder minimum colder conditions for next 25-35 years, based on low solar activity, as Piers has emphatically and religiously explained for years. Also, those interested in electric weather may find this article with comments of value: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/tim-cullen-svensmark-vindicated. The evidence for solar-lunar action is out there as Piers has said for all these years. Scary Dec Piers!
On 04 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Looks like we're in for some really bad weather. Fingers crossed that the dykes will hold! http://alarm.noodweercentrale.nl/
On 04 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
Calm first thing this morning in the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland) but wind has increased through the day to a sustained wind speed of 30mph and gusting to 55mph along with frequent squally hail showers and thunder. Pressure at 1010hpa and falling.
On 04 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Light snow and sub-freezing conditions here in Highland Perthshire this morning. The issue of GFS and Exacta, Weatheraction boils down to credibility. The GFS model is derived from standard 'carbon-o-think' weather forecasting in the AGW establlishment. Exacta purports not to be and of course Piers is definitely not. Predictivity in the non AGW weather world will lose credibility if Exacta's extreme winter forecast proves wrong for a second winter in succession. However more accurate and moderate Piers' prognosis is, it will be swamped by the AGW press in a euphoric outburst of ridicule over the Exacta one if we do indeed now get two weeks of mild -warm Atlantic weather instead of the snowmageddon hype.
On 04 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset, UK wrote:
This is a quote from UKIP. tells it as it is.
So what we have is a Government trying to deceive the general public by tinkering at the edges with tweaks to astronomical fuel bills and pretending to make concessions over onshore wind farms by using an out of sight, out of mind approach. All the while the Government is still pursuing an absurd and frankly dangerous energy policy which is taking money straight from the taxpayer and using it to ultimately plunge Britain into an energy dependency that risks British business, and British lives. It’s appalling.”
On 04 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
Hi Russ, if you read back mate I'm not comparing Piers long range forecast to anyone else's or criticising him, I was simply adding to the mix that the guy from exacta maybe right this year, I get Piers solar/lunar influences as from a layman's point of view it makes sense, I agree that the earth is cooling, GW is rubbish and a LIA period is upon us, I don't follow models, (unless they ask me nicely), the only thing I am sure of is that forecasting for the UK seems a hard call for anyone and for that reason alone I listen, but take what I here with a pinch if salt off everyone, I have great respect for Piers work and been following him for a couple of years now with interest and watch his youtube vids and he is obviously a very clever guy but time will tell I suppose but thanks for the snow support! Ha ha, we used go get 6 months in E. Canada and even for me that was a little too long so I will settle for a good 4 months! Cheers Dave
On 04 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Dave Hi. Yes it is, as Nigella posted, not very fair to compare Piers with anyone else, but only like with like i.e. long range predictions. But the computer models which all the media forecasters rely on are wrong anyway, often from 1 day ahead and beyond. It's a garbage in = garbage out method. As long as they refuse to admit the magnetic interaction effects of the Sun & Earth, then they'll never move forward. Piers has a unique approach in that he marries astrophysics, statistics and meteorology and finds cycles where others see noise. Only in the past few years, since about 2008, have NASA found incredible new evidence of complex magnetic (electrical) effects in the near-space environment. Of course, we have to place the blame for the mass media ignorance on AGW. Any positive effects that the Sun brings to the table neutralise any so called 'evidence' that warming is human induced. I hope you get your snow, makes great photo's, but I also hope it doesn't last for 6 months!! ;^)
On 04 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
Classic! when it gets to the point whereby a forecaster views wind me up chronic that'll be a sure sign of 'needing to get out more' all I'm saying is you've got to give a puncher a punchers chance! It's the UK remember and forecast change like, well erm......the weather don't they.
On 04 Dec 2013, Mike wrote:
Re Exacta and other so called forecasters, they wind me up chronic! Anyone can say that it will be cold with snow and get it right at least 50% of the time. What Piers tries to do is define boundaries, no other long range foecster can do this with the accuracy of PC! I have subscribed for years and take each monthly forecast with at least 80% probability, who else can provide that level of service? Keep it up Piers, you're a legend in the Weather world.
On 04 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
Hello Russ, so it's a no win situation for exacta it would seem then really isn't it, I'm not questioning anyone's ability I just tend to take them all with a grain of salt, as I said it's just general interest for me I started following Piers because of his views on GW which I totally agree with but the forecasts of late haven't really tickled my fancy too much to be honest, I just hope Mr Madden is right this year a we get a decent prolonged winter, maybe Piers may support this later on who knows, btw I did buy a sub once and it was way out but I fully support Piers GW views , Dave
On 04 Dec 2013, Nigella wrote:
Hi Piers, fortunately I'm not "the" Nigella!
I gave your queries some thought & I think the problem lies with me rather than you. I am a pressure chart junkie. I'm slightly obsessed with the Icelandic Met Office Atlantic Forecast - well worth checking out. Proper old fashioned pressure charts with wind direction & speed indicators. I know where I am with pressure charts. I also understand that your forecasts are long term predictions & the Icelandic Met Office are only predicting days ahead not entire months, so it is not fair to compare the two.
However, it does mean that when I look at your prediction, say for the current period, I struggle a bit because I can't quite work out where you are coming from. With some cross referencing to pressure charts I think I can see where you might have been going but I'm guessing a bit.
Hope that makes some kind of sense!
On 04 Dec 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Dave... 'twill be luck I'm afraid! The difference being that Piers uses his own method, while everyone else uses the old established method plus a little intuition/gut feeling thrown in for good measure. We've been subscribing to Piers for around 2 years now and we can neither afford to throw money away or remain ignorant of any extreme weather. I have no complaints. He does get it wrong, but only as frequently as everyone else gets it right! After a lifetime of Met O'flops and gut feelings, I now go with the best odds = WeatherAction...... Low dew point and cold. Yesterday was cool, calm and misty, so the humidity was high. As the breeze picked up (windchill) it turned very cold. Still misty though. So what does cause that bitter breeze that cuts through clothing? A very cold layer of air being forced down instead of slowly mixing with warmer air rising from the ground...maybe? Always accompanied by a strong, persistent breeze, typically without gusts. Gusts mean mixing!
On 04 Dec 2013, STEVE PARKER SUBSCRIBER wrote:
RE Ron Greer
I'm not getting into who's right/ wrong but quoting the models? they don't even know whats happening next week!
On 04 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
Not misplaced faith pal as I don't take anybody too seriously as nobody really nails it consistently anyway let's face it, I think he's a few weeks out personly it's just an opinion we all have one like.........and your right he has too be right sometime, I will however laugh if he pulls this one off , I wonder would that make him credible or just plain lucky?
On 04 Dec 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d Sub) wrote:
Everyone keep a close look at dew points. CET has been fairly avg with little no frost/fog but it has been v overcast esp at night when clouds roll in from east (even on odd clearish day) in eve. It is not 'mild' despite surface temps seeming to suggest so (been 10C at points but not felt like it). Odd as no windchill (yet, that is to come).
On 04 Dec 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d Sub) wrote:
Exacta? Who predicted cold thru sept/oct/nov? Sorry peeps faith is misplaced like the gfs default to warm westerly (rinse/repeat=eventually right). Same every year! A stopped clock eventually right +++ Grey slack ene flow, temps steady 5-7C but really cold feel as dew points dropped to 2C early afternoon. The coldest 'warm' (for time of year) I can remember. Strange.
On 04 Dec 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d Sub) wrote:
Exacta? Who predicted cold thru sept/oct/nov? Sorry peeps faith is misplaced like the gfs default to warm westerly (rinse/repeat=eventually right). Same every year! A stopped clock eventually right +++ Grey slack ene flow, temps steady 5-7C but really cold feel as dew points dropped to 2C early afternoon. The coldest 'warm' (for time of year) I can remember. Strange.
On 03 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
Hi Piers, it looks like I've had a mention off you, hello! if your asking have I any specific expertise in this area then the answers no, I just enjoy listening to yours and everyone else's views but with the weather in the UK my two penny's worth is as good as the next mans, so I am going to agree with exacta this year, call it a gut feeling, as I've gleaned what I can from the WA subscribers comments and I' m sub'd to MVogan who going for cold but exacta seems pretty adamant about his claims this year so why not, I m all for the underdog, I've heard he's a student but so what, so where a lot of us at one time or another, and the lad gets some stick, so here's to using that snow shovel I bought 2 years ago!
On 03 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Totally overcast all day with various forms of stratocumulus, it got really dark from midday onwards, really mild though, temperatures rose from an overnight low of 5˚C to 9˚ in the afternoon. Rain started gently around 3pm & got steady and moderate thereafter, but no deluges, after which things cooled down, 2˚ by 10pm under clearing skies. - Unusual phenomenon for early December in the kitchen just now: a wasp buzzing about!
On 03 Dec 2013, Michael fry wrote:
the indications of mild weather is becoming more and more distant as the days go on... And now for a massive turnaround ... SNOW .. Turn that SWITCH on ...
On 03 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS charts still challenging Exacta as though now not so ' hot' as earlier projections, the GFS still promises mild weather well into mid month, nullyfying any chance of an exceptionally cold winter. They both cannot be correct.
On 03 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
The storm predicted for Thursday might turn out to cause even more damage than the one of Oct 28th. Not only is the forecast for stronger wind gusts (over 63 knots) but if it does come from the NW as predicted, the combination with spring tide might be disastrous! The Wadden Islands will buffer some of it, but this combo will place a huge amount of stress on the dykes along the Northern coast. I do hope any precipitation will come down in the form of snow. If it's pure rain, we might be in for some really bad scenarios :-\
On 03 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Another day of grey skies and no wind boring stuff really but good weather for gardening, no rain again there was a glimpse of sunshine for 2 minutes which showed up the still lovely autumn colours on the shrubs and some trees then t was gone,The oak and silver birch still look good .
On 03 Dec 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Looking like an extremely vicious storm smashing into Norway after it brings blizzards and storm force winds off the eastern coast of Scotland on Thursday.
Then it all calms down from Friday onwards with HP to the south and eventually the east of the UK. It will be so close that I imagine fog and frost may be a problem, with the mild SW'lies never quite influencing SE England, although Eire & Scotland will recover temperature wise.
Looks like the weather has read the script and is following nicely...
On 03 Dec 2013, Spaewife - occasional subscriber wrote:
The calm before the storm.... Little wind at present but a drop from yesterdays temps from +8 degC to around +4 degC today. Gales are expected through the highlands and islands during wednesday/thursday/friday, and possible heavy snowfall? for thursday and friday.
On 03 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL YES V pleasing weather general picture now. How many different model / news views have we had for early Dec? I wonder if those winds in Scotland will reach what we suggested. All up there please report. Obs and comms welcome. JANESPAIN - Yes Thank you! I hope others will quote you in promos! NIGELLA I thought there was only one Nigella namely THE now ex wife of Top spin man Saatchi who renamed her Highgella. Is it good to see he never lost his ad magic? Since we are on the matter I would like to say I feel sorry for Lord Lawson, whom I have met. He must be really upset. I also spoke to her years ago - she phoned me about something political when she was more media involved. I recall now she was pretty racy on the phone so maybe it started a long time ago. ANYHOW off topic. Nigella I wanted you to say if forecasts have improved in a) understandability, b) accuracy, since you first looked - When? DAVE, well, for HOW LONG, on what might you be based? SASKIA No prob!
On 03 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Flippin typical! Wall to wall sun and warmth and heat and happiness to the south and freezing cold wintry showers to the north. Where is the UK? Sat under a strip of rapidly moving high cloud about a million miles long. So we get no sun, mist, dull soft light, bitter cold wind and ground remaining wet and boggy and muddy and yucky! Our Westie spends more time looking black & white than he does plain white! Fieldfare numbers have increased and berry numbers have diminished rapidly. Lots of Nuthatches around this year but then the summer has been wonderfu, with the trees seemingly drooping under the weight of extra leaves! The last time I saw trees looking that lush I was a child. The worst thing about this dull, damp weather? The car is filthy again 65 seconds after you've washed it!!!
On 03 Dec 2013, janespain, subscriber. SE Wales wrote:
Thanks Piers, great response for Saskia. As posted before, I travel across Wales regularly for work. I'm away for 5 days (sometimes 3) a week. WeatherAction is an essential part of my work - it takes hours and hours to drive up and down and across Wales. I can plan ahead and keep safe in my car journeys and even more - I know what I need to pack for 5 days away - worse than going on holiday as I have to have suitable work clothes wherever I go. I can't begin to describe how my subscription has taken the stress out of this!
And no, employer doesn't pay for it - but they should as it's so valuable, I pay for myself (when I can) and it's worth it.
On 03 Dec 2013, Nigella - occasional subscriber wrote:
Observations from East Berkshire - continues to be very still, no wind at all. Temp 6 degs with fairly heavy cloud cover. High pressure would appear to remain dominant in SE England.
I've only subscribed a few times and I am not very knowledgeable so I do sometimes find the forecasts a little difficult to interpret. That is not a criticism, just an observation as a very, very ordinary unscientific lay person.
On 03 Dec 2013, Dave wrote:
I agree with the post below, I think exacta may have it right this year in terms of cold and snow, as the way I see it, it's only a matter of time and the current conditions seem to support the possibility, but I suppose time will tell, as for the warm spell predicated I just can't see it once the cold takes hold. So get prepared!
On 03 Dec 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@Janespain & Michael - I am ever so grateful to you guys for wanting to share. Talk about the X-mas spirit :-)
@PIERS - Sir, THANK YOU!!!! I am always happy to share my observations and support you in Your Quest to promote awareness of the way things are really developing with concern to our weather and climate. I must say I have been following you for years already, even though I only dared jump into the conversation not too long ago. Your X-mas present in combination with the generous offers of fellow forum members is heart warming, and I am very grateful. OT - The sun has been coming out a bit more often but the temps are dropping. Last night while walking the dog, the skies cleared up and the windows of the car were covered with a good layer of ice. Temps inside the house are now barely over 10 Celsius each morning before firing up the heater. Currently the wind is SSE and the dew point is 0 Celsius. Local weather stations give increasing warnings of a blizzard coming Thursday!
On 03 Dec 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Everyone in the Northern Hemisphere seems to be getting deep snow except the UK. Och! It's only a matter of time! (HG Wells). Back to boring autumnal stuff here in Derby-knee deep in sheep poop-shire. Not very nice walking the hills around here lately. Since the cattle numbers have recovered after all the BSE scare and Foot & Mouth outbreak, the cattle are back chewing up the paths turning them to squelchy slippery mud. Add in a dose of mountain bikers and the paths become an impassable swamp. Heather stumbling follows as the mud is by-passed. Lots of slips and tumbles including occasional unintentional yoga and pilates moves. I never drop my phone or ipod but instead, deftly throw myself under the gravity loving devices, making their mating with mother earth an impossibilty. I will heal, my clothes will wash, but it's a pain trying to clean cow poopy and gritty mud from a mobile phone.
On 02 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
An overcast day, altostratus & stratocumulus, SW breeze picking up during the day, temperatures 2 – 6˚C, 5˚ by 10pm, dry all day but very high humidity, as can be expected from SW'ly air. The centre of that High over Britain yesterday has shifted considerably eastwards. The first R5 period of this month has started today, the isobars around NW Scotland are very tight, must be pretty windy there. MO has a yellow snow warning for Thurs & Fri, yellow wind warning Thurs as well.
On 02 Dec 2013, Paul wrote:
I see that certain forecasters are predicting a fantasy forecast for freezing conditions lasting from Dec right through to May. I don't think that even during the mini ice ages a 6 month cold spell where it is cold enough to snow on every day ever occurred except if you are on a mountain or high ground. If these fantasy forecasts were true, we'd be looking at something more serious than a mini ice age. These shock forecasts are to sell newspapers and for entertainment value only.
On 02 Dec 2013, Gary wrote:
Even if this warm spell does come in my eyes it won't as GFS isn't reliable if this jet stream is how it is these crazy switches that happen is the reason most people get forecasts wrong aka metoffice xD , but so far out of Michael fish and the rest of the forecasts I'm really agreeing on exacta weathers prediction if anything I think this winter will be worse than what James is saying in terms of snowfall if I had the money I would subscribe to piers without even thinking about it I'm pretty sure if I had to guess piers would be going for a bad winter for uk and ire and USA !
On 02 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
MetO weather warnings out (from their site):
Issued: 1142 on Mon 02 Dec 2013Valid from: 0005 on Thu 05 Dec 2013Valid to: 1800 on Thu 05 Dec 2013Westerly gales are expected to spread southwards across northern and some central parts of the UK on Thursday, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. The winds will veer northerly or northwesterly and ease a little later in the day, with the stronger winds becoming confined to the far northeast of the UK by early Friday. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel, particularly through the central belt of Scotland and over higher routes of northern England on Thursday. +++Large waves, high tides and surge may also cause some coastal flooding along the East Coast of England.+++ Don't usually see wave warnings - also snow warnings for Scot 2-5cm but more on higher ground. +++ Subject to change but is it an R period? Be prepared by subscribing. It is the only way to stay ahead of model tea leaf reading
On 02 Dec 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:
Short cold blast the weekend which has gone from poss 3-4 delayed to barely a day for the N- as usual passing east into the continent. To say the models are in disarray is an understatement so even the super mild/hot (for time of year) they now seem to show must be viewed with caution. Reading tea leaves involves more skill! A storm however does look likely later this week (where?) and as Piers notes some major tipping points this month which the models won't see. Often at this time of year they struggle even 2/3 days out. +++ Piers thanks for the Euro 30d, my fave product as it gives a great overview. This looks one interesting month. In years gone by we had mild mush but the new jetstream regime throws a major spanner in the works which the models will struggle with (they can predict westerly zonal weather fairly well by simple repetition i.e keep repeating until correct= no skill). PLS SUBSCRIBE
On 02 Dec 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
Ron.... did you really say ....' It might become HOT!' Arriba , Arriba,.... time to get the shades out! Best Chrissie present possible ... a potential Barbie on Bexhill Beach!!!!!!
On 02 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
TO SUB OR NOT TO SUB THAT IS THE QUESTION! MICHAEL Ah fair idea but now fixed as you can see below. THE BEST WAY to help get WA forecasts more available to the known or future unknown is to GET MORE SUBSCRIBERS. So if any of you want to give me an early Xmas prezz please find and PERSUADE ONE person or organisation to subscribe to any service - eg current BI 45d 60% off offer, or USA 3 for 2 offer, or Eu great value service especially if as 6m or 12m, or even 'THE LOT' which is even better value. === THANKS again for all comms and feedback. As you can see from the forecasts BI, Eu, USA THIS month there are some interesting break points / switching points (or weather tipping points if you want to annoy a warmist) which need watching and comms. When giving comms please avoid saying much / anything about the actual content of forecast time ahead (past is ok) to encourage others to subscribe. Thanks Piers
On 02 Dec 2013, Michael wrote:
I too am prepared to share my forecast with Saskia Steinhorst if Piers will allow.Could you let me know please Piers.
Michael,Brecon Beacons Nat.Park
On 02 Dec 2013, Michael wrote:
Who or what is GFS?
On 02 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
TOP COMMS ALL== On models they are having difficulties seeing through this R5 ~2-3rd Dec I think. Worth a very close watch. === SASKIA THANKS for all your brill Obs. You make a compelling case so. You have an Xmas press - your access to Eu 30d is extended to 28Dec. Janespain fair idea but one or two off promos with associates are fine however email contacts in general not wise - imagine facebook 'Friends' === ALL Please do promo these offers for an interesting month - I am sure you agree. PC
On 02 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes Steve and likewise so noted. Where are the Express headlines now? What have Exacta predicted?
On 02 Dec 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
GFS models going for a blowtorch scenario next week. Temporary arctic plunge followed by HP taking up residence over Germany, dragging southerlies over the UK up from N Africa!
On 02 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
I had a leaflet through the letter box it was from lightsource renewable energy, rent out your land to us for the installation of a solar farm,We cover all the costs free no obligation feasibility study, 30 acre minimum, 25year contract etc etc, and we are the silly sops having to feed this total scam, no wonder it is going to cost us 80Billion pounds over the next seven years makes you realise what a lot of green zealots we have in westminster.
On 02 Dec 2013, janespain, subscriber, se wales wrote:
Saskia
I will happily share my december forecast with you if Piers will allow. I always find your contributions interesting. Piers?
On 02 Dec 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Well if you believe GFS, it looks as this coming cold snap will be the last pre Xmas potential for sledging as thereafter it might even become hot. This is in sharp contrast to the Exacta snowmageddon winter prediction. It's so different that if GFS is correct then Exacta will lose all credibility.
On 01 Dec 2013, Lorraine wrote:
Lapwings and Fieldfares in Channel Islands - usual arrivals when Europe is in for snow, or extreme cold on the continent
On 01 Dec 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
A mostly cloudy day with a steady but moderate NW'ly breeze, temperatures ranging from 4 – 9˚C, nice even early winter's day. Looking back on November, it is remarkable how much sunshine we've had overall, in spite of some very wet & cloudy spells. While I was away between 5th – 11th the sun was shining every day apparently. - Steve, the resident High has drifted quite a bit NE today, setting up for SW influence? MO is forecasting heavy snow showers for Thursday night, let's see.
On 01 Dec 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Overcast day here in dorset, very still just a breeze on occasion chilly but not bad at all if you are doing something in the garden etc, not a sign of the sun all day. Oh and not any rain, that is the report from dorset.
On 01 Dec 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL for great contribs === GARY, STEVE D and Others your model monitoring is great. It's worth noting the dates when different models bifurcate (go different ways) and see if that corresponds to R5, R4 periods (without giving advance forecast info) === TOMAS SCANDINAVIA: Thanks for comment - Yes, actually we are equally interested in North and whole of Europe as you can see from our Blizzard Of Blizzards success reported in the News section of Eu Maps forecast bulletin and extracted above (but before which you posted). See the link and forecasts/archives for present / past forecasts. I would urge more Europe (and USA) forecast users to join into this news blog to help get more Euro etc coverage which true has been limited at times.
On 01 Dec 2013, Tomas Bengtson wrote:
Sir,
I would really like to see a long range forcast concerning northen europé and particulary Scandinavia.
I do understand that your focus is on B & I & USA, but never the less, Scandinavia is my particular interest.
All the best
Tomas Bengtson
On 01 Dec 2013, Gary wrote:
Mmmmm.. Like I said before battle of the forecasts some are mentioning this high pressure will move allowing warm winds from the south... That might be the case to the naked eye but! Isn't this jet stream being a bit wild lately??? Something in my stomach tells me that this warm air ain't coming around in fact something else tells me something else!
On 01 Dec 2013, Steve D (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Gfs models 00z outlook shows LP forming over Orkney on Weds then moving E bringing stormy conditions to Scotland on Thursday and Friday. Expect mountain blizzards and snow down to NE Eng in a gale force northerly. However our resident High Pressure asserts it's authority quickly then drofts east giving us mild southerly winds for the second week of December. ..
On 30 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
A mostly cloudy day today, though the sun began to come through the breaking layers of stratocumulus by mid afternoon, temps ranging from 3 – 6˚C with a moderate NNW'ly blowing most of the day, quite good for end of November. Next week could be interesting...
On 30 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Too bad we can't afford the forecast for the next month, because some meteorologists are predicting something very close to a full blown blizzard for Dec 6th. With the damage from the recent storm still not fully fixed - they're overworked in our area, the number of damaged houses in our area is incredible - it would be nice to know what to expect. However, our little extra went towards driving to the hospital each day for my father-in-law these past 5 weeks. (we buried him yesterday) I'll be sure to keep you guys posted on what does or does not happen, despite the possible new damages I personally would love to see snow! ;-) Anything better than this blasted rain ...
On 30 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL == GOOD POINT STEVE about November re ~First and last weeks being quite good. Getting the cold first week was important. People who hear some bits/comments/rumours on our forecasts must be careful before thinking they know what they say. The NOV headline referred to 'Dramatic contrasts' and it was not for uniform mildness either in time or region despite impressions some may have received. THE News article in the 30d December and the December Euro maps have important points about options under Mini Ice Circulations - for subscribers first. Cheers Piers
On 30 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Hi Piers and WA fans. I must say the first and fourth weeks of your Nov forecast were spot on. The pulling of the area of High Pressure west of the expected position was the difference between the indian summer and the cool, dank conditions we experienced instead over the UK. Looking into December, a cold snap has consistently been appearing on both the EWCMF (good) & GFS (crap) models for next weekend. Scotland should take a pounding, then we're back to average conditions again.
The Jet Stream is behaving very erratically as per my recent reports, so Jan onwards should be very interesting once the domination of High pressure over the UK is shunted westwards...
On 30 Nov 2013, GerryB (winter subscriber) wrote:
CET Mark is Central England Temperature - longest Instrumental temp record in World.
On 30 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Mark... CET stands for Central England Temperature I believe... I think it must be very spiteful because it's always refered to as the 'mean' CET...!
On 30 Nov 2013, Steve,dorset,UK wrote:
And now people some Good news.......
Tim Yeo dropped as Tory MP by local party
The Conservative MP Tim Yeo has been dropped as a candidate at the next election
Now that is good news
On 30 Nov 2013, Rob Horler wrote:
Pretty good stuff Piers, down here in Wiltshire only one leaf frost on the Golf Greens which was gone by 8 so a pretty mild november with soil temps up to 5-6 in the day. You were correct on the storm in Scotland and the forecasts of a certain individual are looking poor.
On 30 Nov 2013, Michael wrote:
I would be interested in comments from Spaewife regarding living in Orkney as I have never visited,but would very much like to visit sometime in the near future.
On 30 Nov 2013, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:
Yesterday was horrible just north of Manchester. Windy, heavy rain and generally unpleasant with temperatures at around 7 degrees.
Today it is completely different, the sky is generally clear with some (non technical term) wispy clouds, quite still and temperatures around 7 or 8 degrees. Nice day for a walk me thinks
On 30 Nov 2013, Mark (30d sub) wrote:
What does 'CET' stand for on the forecasts? Can't see it defined anywhere.
On 30 Nov 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:
Some very windy weather across NZ yesterday and today - was it the tail end of the R5 (currently in an R2) or part of something to come? Haven't got December's RTQ yet.
On 29 Nov 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
As promised, Piers forecast for the past few days was out by about 1.5 days. The Met said wet & very windy. We got rain and twas very windy. What did Piers say for this few days? >>> "24th - 26th .. Wet, windy + mild over whole of Britain and Ireland." <<< ......... From 45 days ahead I reckon that's good enough to call a bullseye!! Especially considering the calm weather either side of the wet & windy bit.... Plus one day makes it the 27th and the wind and rain must have hit Scotland before midnight as it had reached us by dawn on the 28th. So roughly 1.5 days out. Good man!
On 29 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
A really blustery but sunny day today after some very heavy rain overnight. The NW wind was quite strong from the word go, blowing at sub-gale strength until it really got going by about 3pm. Now, at 10.30pm it has abated somewhat, temperature range was 4 – 7˚C.
On 29 Nov 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Hi Mana. Yes it does look like something survived but I'm wondering if, due to the comet's size and steady rotation, if the temperature was high enough to turn the surface to a hard, glass or marble-like finish, like being roasted on a spit. This would certainly prevent a new tail forming, though much of the comet could have remained intact. I go with the theory that strong electric charge splits particles away from the surface creating the dust tail. Otherwise, where does all that dust come from? Wal Thornhill over at the Electric Universe site firmly believes that comets and asteroids are exactly the same animals, and I totally agree with him. Just recently, NASA physicists spotted an asteroid which had suddenly sprouted six tails, looking just like a comet. These tails changed in a matter of hours in the same way comets do. Kinda proves him right! Just think how many huge lumps of rock are in intergalactic space whizzing around in all directions. Uncountable trillions I'll bet!
On 29 Nov 2013, Rob wrote:
Just published on the BBC website today - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25160248 - this just shows how wrong NOAA have been and how standard long-range storm forecasting not far short of guess-work. Piers' work seems the only rational forecasting currently available! Keep up the great work, Piers!
On 29 Nov 2013, Mana Singh wrote:
@Russ the space rock comet ISON is alive and well looky here http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2013/11/29/weird_anim.gif So it hopefully will be viewable in the night sky.
On 29 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Actually Mike, as I have already posted before, I often wonder if the F stands for fantasy.
On 29 Nov 2013, M. Lewis (45D subs) wrote:
I'm interested to know Piers latest views on 1816 the year without a summer. There was a massive volcano eruption the year before in 1815
http://history1800s.about.com/od/crimesanddisasters/a/Eruption-Of-Mount-Tambora.htm
which would have caused the cold summer in 1816. Is Piers aware of an ultra R5 period in 1815 which could have caused the volcano to erupt?
On 29 Nov 2013, Mike barnes wrote:
Subscriber.
I would Take no notice of the GFS Ron. It is the worst model out there at that range. No wonder Big Joe B hates it.
Mike
On 29 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS going for a sharp cold spell 4-7th Dec, then an astonishing turn around to very warm weather 11-14th Dec. Exacta seem totally silent on this latter development. Any thoughts?
On 29 Nov 2013, Spaewife wrote:
I have lived(permanently)in Orkney for the past 10 years and been visiting in winterfor more than 13.
Since 2001 snowy Christmassses were 2001/2/3/4
2005/6 I cant find data for.
2007 saw a large fall of snow on Christams day (in excess of 12 inches)
2007/8 saw very lttle (no lying snow)
2009 saw a small fall (less than 4 inches) then continued by below freezing temps for weeks (as in 2010)
2011/12 saw virtually no snow.
I know it's a very small area in the N.Atlantic but it might help with jet stream tracking to some extent.
On 28 Nov 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Just checked Piers forecast for the last few days of Nov and to say that he has another bullseye would be an understatement. Here's what the Met Office say for tomorrow, Friday 29th November: >>> "Friday:.....Severe gales for northeast Scotland, but a windy day everywhere. Becoming brighter from the north with blustery showers, mainly in the north and west, turning wintry over northern hills." <<< I'll post what Piers forecast was over the weekend for those of you who read these posts but are still unsure of Piers abilities and skill level. ..... I also checked his pressure map for the last week or so, and the lows which should have brought wet & windy weather to the UK in the run up to last weekend were there, but so was the huge high pressure system over the south of the country. So the high pushed north about 200 miles and deflected the stormy lows. Bad luck Piers! Just outside the wire with that one?
On 28 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
A mostly overcast and cooler day, temperature range 5 – 7˚C, W breeze picking up around midday, dry all day though, great for putting the garden to bed for winter. - Something not to do with weather but as some of you are keen gardeners, here's an inspiring video to watch, only 10 minutes http://bit.ly/IjvOLK Question is, can you get guerilla weather?
On 28 Nov 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Bugger! It got vapourised! Never mind...plenty more comets out there.
On 28 Nov 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
>>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-21876696 <<< The little Ice Age has begun...ARE YOU PREPARED YET? ......... Good timing; what with comet Ison grazing the Sun this evening. I'll bet all the astrologers will be hiding under the stairs praying to the Gods for mercy! It's not been their year so far, and what with Nibiru not turning up last year I suppose all these comets will put their dire predictions back on track to some degree. But the Chinese are a clever race, and chances are they'll be putting the blame for these giant hailstones squarely on the weather! I do hope Ison survived it's encounter with our star. I'm looking forward to seeing the comet of a lifetime with a beautiful tail cascading across the evening sky in the run-up to Christmas.....
On 27 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Very mild start, unexpected at this time of year but all the more agreeable for it. Mostly quite sunny with WNW breeze, temperature ranging from 9 – 12˚C, interesting cloud shapes, mostly cumulus in various forms. Could have been early spring except for the red leaves on the trees.
On 27 Nov 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Dave
The Official Central England Temperature data (HADCET) has 2013 winter listed as the 172nd-187th coldest since 1660 (all +3.8C), being colder than 2012 but milder than 2009, 2010 and 2011.
It has the 2013 spring as the 29th - 34th coldest since 1660, equal with 1962 at 6.9C.
For the record, the summer equalled the 41st warmest (310th - 314th out of 354 seasons record).
I'm not sure what figures that the ONS are using, but they appear to differ radically from CET.
Any ideas??
On 27 Nov 2013, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Today 27th a thick bank of drifting fog blanketing the whole area until noon when it started to lift and dissipate. 9,4C in the valley bottom but only 7.2C on the moors, in the fog. Very windy and the persistent type, not blustery. Anyone else notice how a persistent wind is most often associated with fog? As I sweated my way up from 350ft to 1,200ft the temperature may have dropped by 2.2C and it certainly felt very chilly, plus the cooling effect of the wind-chill, I did notice however, that as I headed into the fog that I suddenly felt notably warmer. I can only assume that this was because the fog had slowed evaporation from my fleece and therefore my heat loss. We have all heard the sarcastic phrase about the heat in the desert, "but it's a dry heat!", well I think the same applies in the ever moist UK. We feel more chilly in drier air because our sweat evaporates more efficiently. In humid air we can't lose heat through evaporation as quickly therefore we feel less chilled...
On 27 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
On 27 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Excellent link Saskia over 4000 comments on the article shows what an interesting subject it is.
Sat in the sun in Spain at the moment rain forecast must follow me around, back to the chilly UK weekend.
On 27 Nov 2013, Dave Subscriber wrote:
The Office for National Statistics state that the 2012/3 winter was the coldest for 50 years. The ONS should modify their statistics and be forced into line with global warming policy.
On 27 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
It's amazing!! We're soooo lucky to have these wonderful scientists and meteorologists who have discovered that THE SUN might have an influence on our weather! *cough* Piers, it might be time to start checking which of your subscribers are actually members of the community mentioned above *wicked grin* http://yhoo.it/17JBAQe
On 26 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
BILL It's not clockwork so it's not advisable to draw conclusions. Other points on related solar comments on previous blog-post
On 26 Nov 2013, Bill Smith N E Wales (45 d. Sub) wrote:
Hi again, can you indulge a moment? I recently posted about( in my opinion)a similar sc weather re November 1881 as being mild. Any way it got me thinking, as a kid I read the long winter by Laura ingles Wilder set 1881,.anyway i was looking at the winter of 1881 at same website, which interestingly showed that it was very snowy both sides of the Atlantic. Is it an omenfor 2013? (+ 133 yrs). I guess a subscription to the weather action web site will give a heads up over the others.
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