Comments from Piers
WeatherAction
TODAY 15 NOV

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For News USA; Brit+Ire+Eu; see further  down.

13th, 12th, 11th Nov. 
CO2 warmists lie as always, see just below this article of 10th

10th Nov STOP PRESS 


Piers' Comment on the Super typhoon
"Extreme typhoons like this - and deadly landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes like Sandy which hit New York in 2012 - are an inevitable consequence of the Mini-Ice-Age - Wild-Jet-Stream climate now developing and will increase in frequency this decade and next decade. The delusional CO2 theory has no role in this whatsoever. 
"These storms are solar-lunar driven events and largely predictable. This storm specifically ramped-up dramatically during our, (WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) Top Red R5 Weather period 4-6th Nov and now the same storm is exacerbated by a second TopRed R5 period 9-10th. Having two R5's so close is unusual. This second whammy made the Typhoon track shift somewhat rightwards of standard models, just as our Br+Ir+Eu storm of 28-29th OCT did so in accordance with our prediction.
"Solar activity is generally lower during Mini-Ice-Age's and so the relative changes in activity and more specifically magnetic connectivity are more dramatic and with the generally wild jet stream make these extreme storms and superstorms more frequent world-wide.
"I warned of the coming increase in Sandy-type storms (and extreme Pacific Typhoons in discussion) in my presentation to the GAFTA (Grain and Feed Trades Assoc) conference in Geneva in May  
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No43.pdf - slide 52. This point was also repeated in my presentation on morning of 8 Nov to the IAOM - International Association of Operative Millers - conference in Sousse, Tunisia.
"Our series of (trial) forecasts of Tropical storms have been very successful - eg for Irene from 12 weeks ahead - slide 31 in above Presentation.
"On this particular Typhoon one must ask why warning was, it appears, not given of the Storm driven Tsunami. Look at the pictures. Many palm trees survived even if damaged then look below them. The tsunami-flood dealt the death blow to houses and people who were warned of wind but not the violent flood it appears according to TV reports. These storm following floods are totally predictable and well understood phenomena and lead to destruction and loss of life unless warnings are made and acted upon"

CO2 Warmists lie again, no surprise
As expected the CO2 Warmist sect claim the super typhoon is evidence of man made climate change. This is opportunist delusional drivel which they just made up. They claimed many things in the last ten years eg more hurricanes USA and the end of snow in uk which all failed, now they just claim everything bad is evidence of their fraudulent theory and the Philippines delegate to the COP conference is making deranged claims which are against the interests of his people. 
The fact is this storm ramped up in a predicted solar driven Top red R5 period and without that it would have been just another typhoon. Or, do the Warmist cherry-Pickers think C02 caused those solar events? Furthermore we warned there would be more very extreme storms in the developing Mia wild jet stream conditions even if less storms in number. This is being confirmed. The biggest storm in the last 400 years in Europe was the tempest of 1703 which came in the later part of the Maunder Minimum Mini ice age. The warmists cannot predict anything and are holding back science. Their sect must be destroyed, or as Scipio would have said "Dalenda est warmistas".
Piers Corbyn (44)(0)7908734296

12-13 Nov BBC 'TODAY' RADIO 4 CHALLENGED FOR BALANCE
Note from Piers posted on Today site: 

"The Philippines minister on hunger strike is dangerously deluded. That Typhoon became a super typhoon due to predicted solar effects. It ramped-up into a super-typhoon in our WeatherAction "Top Red" extreme weather period 4-6 Nov without which it would have been an ordinary Typhoon ( http://bit.ly/Hwk9cf  ).

"Our UK-Eu Severe storm of 28th-29th Oct which we predicted 6 weeks ahead was in another R5, 27-30th Oct.

"Application of our solar-based advances in forecasting science can give improved long and short range warnings of extreme typhoons, and USA Hurricanes and UK & European storms.
 If the Philippines Minister wants to help his people in future we are ready to assist. The CO2 story is a useless diversion particularly bearing in mind that ALL the dire warnings from that quarter of the last 10 years have failed.

"Could I suggest you invite me on to re-dress the balance on this matter? 
Thank you, Piers Corbyn (07908734296)"

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[For the record 5 November ONLY Bonfire of Delusion 1 month free forecast Offer ended
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They are produced using scientific advances in understanding predictable aspects of particle-magnetic effects from the sun which, along with lunar factors, change world weather systems in ways which have generally happened before. Through this approach WeatherAction can predict many key changes on the sun and associated changes in circulation, the Jet Stream and weather events with independently proven skill and unrivaled reliability (See Forecasts/ Accuracy button).
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Cold Blast Britain & Europe and USA on WeatherAction cue  ~4-8th Nov

WeatherAction's cold blasts for period ~4-8th Nov (+/-1day) due to major jet stream shifts and a top Red R5 period are on cue both sides of the Atlantic.

WeatherAction predicted the present BI+Europe cold blast in detail 19 days ahead. Standard Met denied it for weeks but now it's developing.....
Snowfall on Blencathra captured by Paul Kingston
http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/87921/newcastle-photographer-captures-stunning-pictures-of-englands
ENGLAND'S highest peak gets a dusting on morning of 3rd, and there was plenty more in Scotland.

AND IT SNOWED on WeatherAction cue in Co Durham...

It may have only been Bonfire Night - yet residents in the village of Harwood in Teesdale, County Durham must have woken up thinking it was Christmas Day

 
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487760/UK-weather-Bonfire-Nights-white-Snow-falls-Northern-hills-temperatures-dipping-freezing-point.html#ixzz2jpjdPlP4  Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

PIERS SAID: "We are really pleased with this snow - it is bang-on the cue of our cold blast ~4-8th Nov as we predicted in detail 3 weeks ahead AGAINST standard models. There has been less snow in the cold blast than we hoped from 3 weeks ago but standard meteorology didn't see it coming until it was upon us. The same CO2 warmist school said their models predicted the UK would have seen 'The end of snow by 2010' LOL"
 
Are you serious about weather? 
You might like to know what's next? (Nb see below for USA)
Europe+BI PRESSURE MAPS for Exciting! NOVEMBER developments are in Eu 30d & Br+Ir 45d+75d Services

POPULAR UPGRADES for Br+Ir 30d subscribers to get Pressure maps (& RTQ, Red Weather, thunder, quakes risk)
A NEW UPGRADE BUTTON via above link (bottom of list) enables subscribers to BI 30d to easily upgrade to 45d in order to get Eu+BI pressure and RTQ forecasts - for 1m, 6m, 12m services.
Note if you have less than 6m/12m of 30d to run you can still upgrade via 6m/12m upgrade button and we extend your new 45d access pro rata according to the value of any 'excess' payment with part months in your favour. Example: you upgrade 6m but you only have 4m of 30d to run so upgrade 'excess' ~£20 which will get you one month extra 45d service (normal charge £25).

13th Nov Piers says:
"Standard weather Map Models have changed a lot recently for Britain & Europe. These difficulties follow from the wild Jet stream shifts we predicted for Br+Ir+Eu (and USA) for this month and in addition standard meteorology has great difficulty in seeing past our Top Red R5 weather periods. 
SUBSCRIBE - especially to Br+Ir 45d (or upgrade from 30d) which includes our forecast possible pressure scenario maps - to see what may be coming for the rest of November => http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp
The wild Jet stream detail is also a challenge for us but so far through October and this month most key features of our forecasts have been confirmed, nevertheless if updates become necessary we will issue them to subscribers access boxes.
SUBSCRIBE NOW to Br+Ir 45d to get November Euro+BI maps (as in Eu 30d forecast) and on 16th Nov you also get the 45d detail for DECEMBER"

++++++++++++++++
Piers' Storm in Amsterdam 
For more Storm reportage ~27/28th-30th Oct both sides of Atlantic, including links to pdf reports, see last blog  Get Euro forecasts: http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp

 
USA 4-8 Nov => 9-12Nov => 13-16th......

~13-16th Cold + Snow North Central USA + Contrasts just to East http://bit.ly/1e2HKwi 
ALSO CONFIRMS WeatherAction ongoing success November. Subscribe to get a grip of later November, Thank you  
=> 6m, 12m gives TOP VALUE
      http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp


     


The USA cold blast shown and mild wet weather further East are as in WeatherAction USA for ~4-8 Nov & 9-12th  

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++===
CO2 warmists on the Run - Let's Finish The Job 
- Prof Murry Salby Meetings 4-8th Nov SE UK and Scotland - including Parliament Weds 6Nov 1.30pm (come at 1pm). 
Book via link but it may well be possible to get in without booking depending on numbers  

Series now over. THANKS for coming Murry!

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Comments submitted - 105 Add your comment

On 14 Nov 2013, Fred wrote:

Piers I have your forecasts and I'll be continuing. Re current period and period ahead, I notice one of your uncertainties was Greece / Turkey region, does that mean that the LP in that region you had shown is further west towards Italy as is showing on model output and that was/is confirming your very relevant highlighted uncertainty ? And if so would that shunt your maps set up further N and W? The current synoptic pattern looks very similar but further N and W? Or are the models going to change and shift it further S an E?
On 14 Nov 2013, shaun wrote:

@jpt I really do get frustrated by the BBC with their nonsense articles. I mean the president of the world bank, first of allfat cat bankers have no place manipulating politics for self gain, never mind science. But worst of all, people are so gullible with this rubbish, I mean... would you go to your local bin man for medical advice? NO... so why the hell have they got these numpties advising us about science matters.
On 14 Nov 2013, Not supplied wrote:

Steve Dorset... Re: Drax solar farm... Isn't everything the warmists do preceded by a heated debate?? >>>> jpt... That Harrabin bloke makes my blood boil too. What a man will say for money! Scientific prostitution??..... Piers "..wet & windy.." for the 12th-13th period, has been wetting and windying for the past 12hrs or so and is still feeding in a strong wind and heavy rains as of 6am.
On 13 Nov 2013, jpt wrote:

What to make of this? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24925580 I'm no expert but it makes my blood boil because I just don't believe it to be true! Can anyone here shed a little light on exactly HOW they manipulate the 'figures'? Thanks.
On 13 Nov 2013, Bob Weber wrote:

USA Nov forecast on track as of today. Central low featured in Nov 4-8 forecast period developed Nov 5-6 and progressed with cold and snow into "Thick sandwich" as Piers forecasted. Nov 9-12 forecast appeared to develop quickly and early with heavy lake-effect snow, as seen for days here in Northern Michigan. Cold arctic air and dominant high pressure filling today nationwide as Piers forecasted. As Piers said, "Circulation starts to change later with higher pressure taking over in south." I'm getting tired of hearing from skeptics telling me no one can predict weather long-range. Piers is able to attract and keep customers for his forecasts by being successful. Too many out there dismiss what they don't understand without looking at it first. I'm working on producing regular reviews of Piers' US forecasts including solar activity. Suggestions are welcome.
On 13 Nov 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

I'm afraid that 'saving human lives' isn't a good story for the media. 'Something must be done about the terrible loss of human life' is. You being able to predict them would deal a hammer blow to the regular disaster news of the MSM. If you could predict typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, great snow events, droughts and famines, what would the media do for a living??
On 13 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

I can't afford your forecasts at the minute with Christmas, weddings and 50th birthdays coming up but I will most certainly donate £1 via paypal. Do also think if people want to help Piers improve his forecast then they will do likewise if their finances allow. Because one thing is for sure, time is money. Piers can only use his time as long as he makes enough money, new equipment to continue the advancement of his technique will cost more money and money does make this world go round. So I for one will be donating via paypal £1 for now, and more when I can afford. South Wales pretty cold this morning, puddles frozen over and frost everywhere.
On 13 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Temperature looks set to fall over next ten days.
On 13 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

£1 donated to Piers..,,, 'Every little helps' !
On 13 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Strange day yesterday! Started off almost balmy with light broken cloud, a touch of drizzle and a hanky full of breeze. Then by around 11am the high broken cloud was to the SE and the cold dry polar air could be seen to the NW, full of dark grey blobs (shower clouds). The roll of cloud on it's waning edge almost above me. As the breeze picked up to tea-towel size (The Russ wind-scale whereby enough wind to vigorously move a hanky, a tea-towel or a bath towel on a clothes-line shows the relative breeze strength.), I noticed the temperature slide quickly down to raw and very chilly, and this was almost lunchtime, after a relatively sunny morning...... This morning, the car is iced over again, although the roads are fairly dry. Wall to wall blue sky no less.... Anyone notice the Sun-Spot bonanza on our friendly little star? A quick burst of life before it goes bye byes for the next 200 years??
On 13 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

GILL - RE TYPHOONS AND WEATHERACTION CONTRIBUTE/DONATE BUTTON - Thank you for the comm. It is indeed true that if each WeatherAction site user or twitter follower (numbering 6800), other than subscribers, gave £1 per month we could do many more things. One could be to develop Typhoon formation and track long range forecasting (although location is more difficult than for the Atlantic/Caribb/Gulf region where we have shown high skill). Another is to comment on the danger potential of Typhoons as they form. We would VERY MUCH WELCOME site users donating £1 via the 'Donate' button on the PayPal link and in current circumstances I would say do it AFTER giving to the RedCross Philippine effort. Thank you
On 12 Nov 2013, Spaewife wrote:

SteveDorset - R.Drax MP is just another trougher, but it doesn't surprise me that your local planning committee accepted the application. It is extremely expensive for councils to turn down applications, only for an appeal to be made and the thing overturned and all to the expense of the local taxpayer. My county council has spent almost £500k in the past 4 years. in a county of a population of 20k. It's no wonder they approve these things. It's a clear case of the Aarhaus convention being contravened. The Climate Change Act and it's committmant to reduce carbon emmissions substantially (which the UK is bound by until 2050) and is the only European country stupid enough to sign up to it, has made sure of that. Ridiculous situation isn't it.
On 12 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

A HUGE solar farm planned for the estate of wealthy MP Mr Richard Drax was given the green light by councillors. The application, which has garnered more than 500 objections, was almost turned down at the meeting of East Dorset District Councilís planning committee. But after a heated debate, chairman Councillor Mike Dyer The chairman used his casting vote to approve the proposal. The blind leading the blind. This is just a little backwater so what will this con cost the whole country.
On 12 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

Pretty cold day here in South Wales and gona be below average temps by this evening or early hours tomorrow morning. Nice to be feeling some cold weather again
On 12 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Nice here in Dorset mild morning with sunshine clouding over a bit now 15.30 so not a bad day I would say for November.
On 12 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

12c with keen wind here in Canary Wharf, London. The GFS models still going for a northerly incursion next week. Now Joe Bastardi is going for a cold and blocked December "Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember". A repeat of Dec 2010? Worse? Subscribe!
On 12 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

RHYS: Snow down to 1500ft on local hiils and I saw a snowplough vehicle moving north out of Pitllochry, so presume snow on the A9 at Drumochter. With afternoon temps down to 6C and falling later, then no doubt the skiers will be happy at Cairngorm.
On 12 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

On a slightly different track. Yesterday the DEC website said they were still 'appraising the situation'. Now today - they have finally launched an appeal for the Phillipines. I didn't wait for them to make their mind up and went straight to the Red Cross website who were asking for help. The point is why do people in high places always dither? if they can still dither AFTER a disaster even when we can see it for ourselves, what hope do people have that they will get warning BEFORE something like this happens. If Piers sent out a warning - do you think those in charge would take any action? probably not. Sadly, poorer people have to live n the least safe most vulnerable areas, but at least a warning could give them a chance. Piers, maybe you need to warn the Red Cross in future. At least then a message may get through. I am sure if we all donated a pound to you that would go some way to covering your costs if you did. that..... just a thought to help the less well off at risk!
On 12 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn twitter WA FORECASTER wrote:

Thanks MATT. See comm now above. Yes that Minister is deranged and needs a doctor of the mental processes variety or he needs to become acquainted with the facts. However facts are not something the warmists like, they fiddle them and lie lie and lie again to suit their deluded aims - see WANewsNo43 PDF. If this minister wanted to help his people the first thing he should do is ask why there was no Tsunami warning for hundreds of thousands or indeed millions affected but that might necessitate his own resignation. The second is if he wants better warnings of the worst Typhoons he need only ask us. However putting the interests of their people first is not an idea the un climate delusion committee the ipcc has ever entertained. This minister is in the standard begging bowl fawning mode. He lies & bleats The West or imperialism is to blame and then gets shovelled money to keep the delusion going and the West govts & Big Oil then jack up prices and surcharges to ho ho "save the planet"
On 12 Nov 2013, Matt wrote:

On Radio4 this morning - Philipino minister on hunger strike until the UN Climate Conference agrees on some solid measures to tackle rising CO2. Piers - time for you to make your views heard
On 12 Nov 2013, Sue H, N, Ireland (part-time subscriber) wrote:

Thanks for ideas re: fireball. Three of us saw it last night, 7.45pm, co. Armagh, but we were all in my backgarden, so that doesn't help much. I dont think it could have been the satellite, wrong time and place, plus travelling in wrong direction. I did think of chinese lantern or hotair balloon, but glow too circular and also going too fast. My son saw it first, and in the space of less than two minutes it basically moved from one side of the horizon to the other, more like the speed of a plane. the previous two would drift more, also no wind last night. I shall ask around today in the locality and see if anyone else reported sightings. I'll keep you posted.
On 12 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

RHYS: wilco. At this time of year, the freeze-thaw line at the Cairngorm car park( about 600m alt)is crossed time and time again, but with sea level temperatures predicted to be around 8C until Fri-Sat then snow will be falling at Munro level( this is shown in the Mobeeb charts). Likely to be a bit warmer until late Saturday then cooler again next week---all of course if you go for standard models!! The GFS still charts a deep low heading for Svalbard and if that had hit us as they had predicted a week ago, then a big dump of snow would have occcurred. As usual, better to trust Piers.
On 12 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

But Piers, the Philippines typhoon disaster, calamity, destruction, catastrophe, is man made! Is it not man who keeps building millions of unsuitable homes across an area known for centuries to be hit by typhoons every year, with some record breaking ones occasionally?? Their government could help, firstly by subsidising homes to be built more strongly and with aerodynamic shapes to thwart the high winds. Secondly by having a proper emergency service and coordinated system to cope with any future catastrophe. If you put up thousands of wind-farms in tornado valley, don't come crying when they all get destroyed by tornado's...right? So don't keep building millions of plywood and tin sheet homes, in one of the places most regularly hit by typhoons on the planet, then wonder why the only buildings left standing are the brick and concrete ones! "History teaches us nothing!" Caravan site on a flood plain? Government buildings next to a large tidal river? Nuke reactors on the coast?
On 12 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

@ Mike If he doesn't pull it off he'll still be the dogs testicles. Is it not enough that he forecast Piers Corbyn storm 6 weeks ahead? while MO still dithered 5 days before and even right up until the night before and so did every other model watcher I came across. Or like last winter, I recall perfectly as I was very excited to see Piers forecast a red snow warning for South Wales way way before anyone else and after the MO eventually forecast it, then upgraded it to red only the night before, it delivered as promised. But I remember most model watchers and forecasters I came across were forecasting Zonal Muck as they put it for last year.
On 12 Nov 2013, shaun wrote:

@ Sue Chinese Lantern? I have seen a few of these behave quite oddy in the distance, especially when it's dark as it can be more deceptive. Just to come closer and to realise that is all it was. Very commonly mistake these lanterns for UFO and it would fit the no sound issue.
On 12 Nov 2013, Bob Weber wrote:

Russ - you're talking my language - gotta love it! Vilsu - I cannot confirm nor deny whether Piers is writing a book or not - I just hope he does - in time for Christmas! Well OK, that might be pushing it, I mean, you know, he's pretty busy doing the SLAT9 thing and then there's those pesky warmists that he has to keep dealing with... ;)
On 11 Nov 2013, Jonathan Hunt wrote:

It could have been this Sue? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2499689/Ferrari-space-satellite-plummeted-depths-South-Atlantic-Ocean-fiery-entry-Earths-atmosphere.html
On 11 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (Twitter) WA FORECASTER wrote:

Thanks as always all == SUE Don't know but with these sort of things one needs more than one observer preferably, and in different places to identify where it was. == MIKE JOHNE SAM RUSS ALL The first thing I recommend of course is that everyone should subscribe to the November forecast and preferably the 45day version which includes euro-Atlantic pressure maps and the RTQ forecast trials for coronal holes etc and Quakes. On what next in B & I & Eu recall that for earlier in the month standard models in lateOct said mild as far as they could see in Nov while we had the cold blast around 4 To 8th and we were right noting we said detail low confidence. Next models were going for similar to us and now change but models rarely see correctly through an R5 let alone two R5s with a short gap so in a day or so they will change again. So no update yet. However note these MIA-wild Jet stream situations are rapid changing and not easy in detail. KEY thing to see is wild jet changes CONFIRM MIA.
On 11 Nov 2013, Sue H, N, Ireland (part-time subscriber) wrote:

Ok, just seen something very odd in the sky about half an hour ago. I'm hoping one of you guys can help identify it. It was a perfectly round glowing orange ball, moving fairly swiftly through the night sky from probably SW to NE. It was fairly big, enough at first glance to think it was one of our local small planes on fire, but no, glow all regular. no noise either. Could it have been an asteroid or comet or satellite? Also saw a shooting star a couple of nights ago, but it was tiny in comparison and went much quicker for only a short time, also that was in an arch, whereas this kept level. Any guesses? Just wish I'd got a photo.
On 11 Nov 2013, Mike wrote:

Hi Piers. If you pull the second half of your November Forecast off you will be the dogs testicles. Eveyone is banging on about cold and snow coming soon in Nov. As much as i want the snow, i hope you are right. We can then CROW from the roof tops, that Piers was the only one to call it right.
On 11 Nov 2013, JohnE wrote:

two things of note. Another significant storm heading for parts of the Philippines already devastated by the recent typhoon Exact weather are now showing huge confidence in significant snow disruption later this winter. I think that I have seen this headline elsewhere tho
On 11 Nov 2013, Sam McLaughlin wrote:

Piers, what's your opinion on the Met office predicting there will be snow to the end of November ? Do you have an idea of when it will come and how much?
On 11 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Another couple of blimey's from me! A volcano has gone pop near Karo in Indonesia Nov 10th in line with Piers Quake & Volcano warning Top R5 period 9th - 10th November.... It just so happens that there was an X1 solar flare at 5.15am UT on the 10th Nov'.... That makes three X-flares in 5 days. Plus, I see an almighty coronal hole approaching. Better get the brolly proofed! Perhaps that should be three blimey's, or even an 'aw core blimey'!.... Standing water was all solid ice on farmers fields yesterday (10th). That won't do the crops much good. Cold doesn't seem to bother them, or frost, but ice and snow have a very deadly effect, as does standing in water for long periods.
On 11 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

GFS and Jetstream outlook looking poorer by the day for any chance of the Azores High Pressure being to our SE and maintaining SW'ly winds unfortunately. The Jet Stream is currently in a 'normal' position but by Friday goes over the top of the UK, into Norway then backtracks over SE England, something I have never seen before. The High Pressure from the Azores seems to be nudged westwards, allowing a more NW'ly polar maritime flow, followed by northerlies. Piers - Still sticking to your guns about mid-November?
On 11 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn WA forecaster wrote:

THANK YOU ALL. == GEOFF 10 Nov. Ha I had to laugh better sorry than safe? Unintended consequences! Next time I would still give the same advice particularly now that tree has gone! == FRED 7 Nov Cold blasts eg Mon 4 Nov I was on the station platform in Huntingdon and yes bitter cold from perhaps not so obvious circulation you ask. I would say maybe but I think if you trace back flow and add in clear sky it would make sense. == ALL Electric Universe, the usually most active connected link on my Facebook page is that. == Super typhoon I urge you all retweet my link to above, it's not CO2, comm. I haven't yet heard the Warmist liars claim it's CO2 but they will and anyhow they now rely more and more on innuendo that anything extreme is CO2 caused - which is why they will NEVER REPORT our solar based forecasts of anything and why we must challenge the media lies and innuendo at every turn and demand evidence of their claims and who made them. Thanks Piers
On 11 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

I see the bbc are still saying that the storm in the Philippines is the strongest ever recorded, they know that is not true but it does not conform to there warmest religion so they are hyping the propergander for all they are worth, as for cfc effecting global warming please prove this is so before calling it fact bbc. P.S. I am using a thing called iPad so forgive me for any mistakes still getting used to the thing only got it to go on holiday so I can keep up
On 11 Nov 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Ron It's not unknown for Cairngorm to open in November, but it's mighty unusual if it stays open continuously from now until Christmas. Do let us know if that happens. First decent dump in the Alps down to lowish altitudes over the weekend. Up to 35cm well below 1500m altitudes reported at the Swiss Avalanche Research Centre website (www.slf.ch). They are forecasting a week of cold temperatures, so maybe this time the base for the ski season can develop with consolidation and a little gentle freeze-thaw cycle or two.
On 10 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

Lol I really can't believe it... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24874060 Now it is the reduction of CFC gases that has caused the warming hiatus. Its incredible what rubbish they are coming up with to explain away the lack of warming. Logically, if they blame the lack of warming over the last 15 years on CFC, then the warming will not continue as long as we keep our levels of CFC gases as they are now. So is this an admission of the end of AGW? I doubt they meant it to mean that but I think it is a fair conclusion from these claims. As we have reduced our CFC output and they suggest this is the cause of the warming hiatus for 15 years then surely as long as we dont start mass using CFC gases again we are saved from AGW?
On 10 Nov 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24874060 Yet another theory gets presented, but they never mention that big yellow object in the sky Of coarse it subtley alludes (BBC Propaganda) to the stance that the banning of a substance is the correct thing to do, or I'm I being a little deep ?
On 10 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Well that's the second day in a row that the GFS is going for a whopper deep low over Svalbard by next weekend and a very benign SW flow for the UK.
On 10 Nov 2013, vilsu wrote:

To Bob Weber: Is Piers Writing a book????? I want one too, ans so does the MetOffice.
On 10 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Big swirl of rain out to the SW of the UK but it's butted up against a ridge of high pressure sitting over the UK. Same old tale of the jet stream over the past year or two. A moist, warm. low against a dry, cold, high, with the potential for either heavy rain or snow along the edge where they meet. .... Lots of ice around this morning; the roads were treacherous until gone 10am. Pockets of ice on the moorland ridge at around 1000ft until 12 noon. Very cool breeze from the NW but I was in a short sleeved shirt, cos my blood is 50% anti-freeze....I'm just lucky that way... Imagine that low pressure swirling over the UK in the early hours. It could have dropped some snow!!
On 10 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

..contd.. Two points such as the ground and a point in our conductive atmospheric gas. This is easy, but measuring this same potential difference in space is very difficult. The evidence has to be found by observing changes in electrical activity, such as the recent measurements of voltage spikes in the upper atmosphere during X-flares. The connected magnetic fields of the Earth and the Sun have an electric field at right angles to them, and any disturbance causing an increase in the magnetic strength (flux) with have an associated increase in electric field strength (voltage) which can now be measured in the upper atmosphere. Sooner or later, it has to be admitted that many aspects of the solar model and space are electrical, however difficult it may be for the mainstream to break their university conditioning and accept them. We need a new model, and the EU people have far more correct pieces of the puzzle than the mainstream ever did.
On 10 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Bob, Brad et al, thanks for the positive comments. I have had the time over the past 10 years to read mountains of stuff from many sources, which have completely changed my views and understanding of electric and magnetic fields. I filled my head for 40 years, with the old school view of electricity being composed of nothing more than electrons flowing through a copper wire like water through a copper pipe. The PhD obviously doesn't help any scientist understand the movement of electric charge when physicists talk of no electrons flowing through space toward the Sun. It drops my jaw to read such nonsense in a serious rebuttal of Electric Sun models. Just for the record, electrons whizzing through the 'vacuum'(?) of space has nothing whatsoever to do with the electric charge feeding the solar plasma model. The electric field pervades space, is everywhere, all the time, and the only way we know it is there is if we measure the difference in potential voltage between two points ..contd..
On 10 Nov 2013, Autarky wrote:

ANOTHER AVERTABLE disaster, improvident-tyrants-made in Philippines... Beating the hurricane: www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN9D-QmIwko‎
On 10 Nov 2013, Geoff Hood Sub 45d wrote:

hmmmm, double edge sword, i told my step mother who went on holiday three weeks ago that she should put her car away in the garage due to "Piers Storm" was due She has just return from hols to find a tree fell on the garage and crushed her car You win some you loose some
On 09 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:

Piers, this (Dutch) weblog talks about an 11 Celsius to -9 Celsius drop in the French Alps within 36 hours time, including a snow storm http://bit.ly/1c9LkCu Supposedly happening tomorrow. If it does, it comes very close to the day of your predictions, don't you think? Here we have continuous rain with some hail. This caused us to discover that we have some more storm damage, as there's a leak in the living room. Rainy weather is not ideal for climbing on an old, mossy roof though, so we'll have to wait it out until it's dry again. Fortunately we have plenty of buckets ;-)
On 09 Nov 2013, Bob Weber wrote:

Russ and others about solar activity are obviously correct, and I happen to agree that the recent cyclone was powered up by that x-flare. I mentioned that opinion on WUWT a few days ago, where I also credited Piers for forecasting all that solar activity. I also implored that everyone should be interested in how Piers knows about this solar activity so far in advance of everyone else. I call what you have described, in contrast to the greenhouse gas effect theory of climate, the electric weather effect. Katrina and many other hurricanes were preceded by large solar flares, and I believe the record low USA tornado and hurricane season this year resulted from insufficient solar activity. Piers has successfully predicted high R periods with corresponding Earth weather that resulting from those proton events. I think once a person realizes how much evidence there is for outside forcing of our weather and climate, there's no looking back. I look forward to a book from Piers on this.
On 09 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:

Blimey! It was cold this morning in our neck o'the woods...until 10am at least. Frost on the car. Standing water still everywhere, reluctant to drain away. Big jet stream loop just whanged straight past the UK heading for Spain, but it's brought lots of cold polar air down with it....again!
On 09 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

What a farce the GFS charts can be. An intense low scheduled yesterday to be to just NW of Scotland this time next week, is just a day later now forecast to be near Svalbard--- and they moan if Piiers is 25 miles out from 6 weeks ahead!?
On 09 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Woke up this morning( 07-15 on Sat 9th Nov) to fog, frost and a layer of fresh snowflakes on the car---it is most certainly winter now.
On 08 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Well, would you 'Adam and Eve it' the unusuallly early opening of the Cairngorm Skicentre actually made it on to the main BBC Scotland news programme this evening.
On 08 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Quote From the NIPCC There should be caution about accepting the depiction of global warming hazards espoused by environmental lobbyists, NIPCC scientists examined the same corpus of published scientific research as did their IPCC counterparts, yet reached opposite conclusions, which were that late 20th-century warming and its ancillary effects lie well within the previous natural variability of climate change, and that no published evidence exists that human-induced carbon dioxide emissions have caused, or will cause, dangerous warming. - See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/letters/nipcc-has-reached-opposite-conclusions-on-climate/story-fn558imw-1226756158736#sthash.m1SGSOmZ.dpuf
On 08 Nov 2013, Not supplied wrote:

The Electric Sun is often attributed to a 1972 article by Ralph Juergens,[1] who acknowledges priority to a 1958 Melvin Cook monograph, and inspiration from Immanuel Velikovsky's 1946 monograph, Cosmos Without Gravitation continued research by Wal Thornhill . to be correct.for anyone interested.
On 08 Nov 2013, brad wrote:

Hi Russ take a look at professor James mccanny .and the electric universe theory , Professor Jergan pioneered it and Wallis Thornhill at the thunderbolt project. if you don't already know of them. goes along with the electric comet discharging the capacitor of the Sun. just as we have seen since ison came in the picture. first class work Piers, you got the storm way, ahead of anyone. it hit some and missed others. but it arrived. I think all the x flares and Cme activity is going to power up the weather as we see with the typhoon today.
On 08 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Newspapers & media: sadly these mediums still exist on a reputation that is now decades out of date. The BBC is - sadly - still perceived as being a reliable non-partisan purveyor of information and truth when it has been a virtual tv station for the loss-making Guardian for decades, being pro-EU, pro-AGW and for any public spending. One can only hope that its days are numbered and will be killed off in 2016 when the charter comes up for renewal. It is too late to save it now. As for newspapers - they no longer bother with any proper journalism and will happily print out a press release, get a couple of stock opinions and call it an article. On a pet subject, the EU, they are hopelessly ignorant beyond belief, matched only by the ignorance of our politicians. To be spouting articles seriously believing that Cameron will get any form of renegotiation has ceased to be amusing anymore. This shows a failure to understand that the EU, is, was and always will be a superstate in creation.
On 08 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

This has proved to be an interesting and constructive thread. I would suggest that the foundations for Piers forecast of a blast of snow down the east were there with a low lurking up around the polar circle but lacking a final shove of solar energy to drive it right down the country. I doubt the MO would have seen it from so far in advance. Perhaps we need to be better at seeing a potential situation and watch the short term forecasts knowing that there could be elements that standard met won't see. I still recall an incident when van driving in London 20 odd years ago when LBC weather assured that the current snow would shortly turn to rain. No! It dumped 4ins of snow!
On 08 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

The Philippines storm seems to have powered up just after the solar X-flare on the 5th. Now an M8 powerful flare, with an associated coronal hole can't be helping. Remember that massive magnetic/electrical jolt to our atmosphere as the flare erupts? Coincidence? All that energy has to go somewhere. Standard theory says that the Earth is neutral and soaks up this energy like a huge sponge, then radiates it back into space as heat. But also states that lightning is produced in clouds, which short to Earth, which soaks it up like a huge sponge etc. But lightning is the Earth's way of getting rid of it's excess positive electrical charge. It likes to stay neutral as do most things. A Solar flare charges up the Earth's atmosphere, creates electrical storms which dissipate that incoming energy back into space. Earth's magnetic field is proof that electrical fields exist in space. Our atmosphere acts like a capacitor, charging & discharging as it's electrical environment changes. Simples!!
On 08 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Very humid with fog banks at about 1000ft, drifting past quickly on a very chilly SW breeze. Sun & Blue sky waning by 9am as a huge splodge of rain heads up the country. The ground is absolutely sodden. More rain will turn everything to mud. There's lots of water damage to lanes & tracks where rainwater has overburdened the streams, drains and other tributaries, washing away gravel and tarmac. Any farmer thinking of buying or renting a farm ought to consider excessive rainfall in the near future. The farms which seem to be standing up to the onslaught of our new 10 month wet season, are the ones with a good steep gradient to their fields. No doubt, more difficult to work, especially in wet conditions due to machinery getting stuck in the mud, but by contrast, these farms will have less mud because the rain water won't collect, it'll tend to drain off the land. The level fields of crops near us are like mud-baths. Just a thought!! Crop choice now more dependent on ground angle maybe??
On 08 Nov 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

This is a summary from Gibby on all the models "the status quo in our Autumn 2013 continues unabated. The trend for most of the active weather fronts shifting further to the North remains as High pressure builds close to the South or SW next week with day to day changes ranging between rather cold and rather mild weather over the period as frontal boundaries pass through." http://bit.ly/1fo4JCt === Super Typhoon Haiyan is looking to be manna from heaven for the ambulance chasing alarmist vultures who milk human suffering to push agenda 21 on twitter- the science does not support them either so these cretins might as well blame witches as they might be more accurate then. No carbon mitigation program will ever stop these storms which happen in COLD/COOLING phases like 1964/5. It looks to have strengthened in the current R period but is not in an area Piers covers. It may strengthen again as R periods not over. WUWT are covering http://bit.ly/HDiCB5 My thoughts with those affected.
On 08 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

One of the Scottish broadsheets has picked up on the prospect of the Cairngorm Skicentre opening this weekend for boardsports etc. There is a substantial snowcover on the Perthshire 'Munro's. Yesterday I had to smash 2cm of ice in an old bathtub I keep to store tree saplings in, to start potting them up.
On 08 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Latest GFS outlook models show bands of rain crossing country tomorrow followed by eventual Azores High Pressure creeping ever closer to the South of the UK by the end of next week. The Jetstream forecast shows it's path currently crossing the UK from the SW, following by going over the top of Scotland and smashing into The Netherlands, followed by a more northerly (normal) track over the top of the UK, hence the approach of the Azores HP unhindered.
On 07 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:

Spaceweather.com has a nice mention of a 'magnetic crotchet'. What? Electrical energy flowing in Earth's upper atmosphere? Noooo! Surely mishtaken there! It must hurt admitting something so profound. Next thing you know they'll be saying that electrical charges flow around in space.....but maybe that's asking a little too much.... Please remember the bit about the effect on our atmos' while the flare is..erm..flaring... Very important that! Don't forget...the thing is 93,000,000 miles away yet can push Earth's electrical charges around within minutes...wow! Never ceases to amaze me that one...awesome!
On 07 Nov 2013, Fred wrote:

What IS important is the correct and incredibly accurate pressure pattern..... one has to admit it was spot on as was October. I have to admit that the call by Piers for potential, yes 'potential' disruptive snow 4-8 Nov took me by surprise as I didn't think we'd get snow like that so early. However, Piers did put a caveat in there, saying main uncertainty was where and if rain would turn to snow....that is there in black and white. I have to admit too that the snow some received was again a surprise, so putting the puzzle together I'd call Piers' forecast pretty well spot on with pressure pattern, v heavy precip. and 'unexpected' snow for some. Piers, a question, we seem to be able to achieve some pretty chilly temps from some innocuous set ups lately? Is this important?
On 07 Nov 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

...cont...another thing to note is margins of events. Take the storm, which I followed on the radar, which ran up the Irish sea in mid Oct (warned of by WA) but which missed most of the country. Shift it ~50m East or West & it would have been a different story. To be warned of these events & the window they happen in is why the forecasts are so useful for me. One other consideration, which ties with margins, is the meridional (loopy) jetstream. One side brings warmth, the other cold and if it's directly over us endless wet (like most of 2012 or Oct). +++ Models showing pretty much the same with contrasts from tropical (warm) to polar (cold) air mostly felt in Sth but hints for something cold in last third of month. Could be a proper block or short lived..long way off for the models. It does look to be colder than of late despite the westerly flow of cloud&rain, notable today as it's cold under cloud when it's only really been cold under clear skies.
On 07 Nov 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

...cont...in terms of telling others if any of us had said 'turning much colder' to prospective subscribers (i.e. being less precise but still giving a taste) we then have the ability to manage expectations as the time comes near...so they will see not the lack of blizzards etc (always a close call at this time of year which is similar to early April temp wise) but would be aware that crops could be effected & prepare. Think always in broad strokes to get the outline, detail becomes clearer as the time approaches. There are times when Piers accuracy is unparalleled & the detail stunning so when he gets a broad stroke (which is useful) it can seem a let down when it's only 70% but is still massively better than chance. Think of it like this...sometimes Piers will predict the exact card you hold (i.e Queen of Hearts), others the exact suit (hearts) but not the rank, other times he gets the exact rank (King) but not the suit....cont...
On 07 Nov 2013, CraigM (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

Just saw a BBC forecast & the Atlantic seems to have slowed so we get a dry not wet day on Sun. That's a short term change. Also models despite offering an endless mild fest for weeks it has turned distinctively colder. The dewpoints have really been yo-yoing the past few days with yesterday getting warmer as the day wore on & after dark, but back to cold today. Despite the ground flow of wind being almost uninterrupted westerly over the weekend I noticed cirrus shifting W-NW-N-NE-NW (this is when skies broke, lots of featureless nimbus so no ideas what the upper flow was today). That followed what I expected from the WA forecast so was USEFUL tho I too hoped for wider snow, however a closer reread showed the uncertainty & **'whether'** there would be snow...but it was confusing in light of the graphic (understandable as the added notes changing from 45d were added on 31st). No doubt Piers will take on board & make clearer in future forecasts...cont...
On 07 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

I have to say I do sympathise with Lorraine G, because trying to convince farmer isn't easy at the best of times - (and I'm married to one)! The big problem with people generally in this country is that they love the doom and gloom in daily life. So everything has to be extreme to grab their attention. Piers forecasting accurately four sunny days isn't going to impress most people; but four sunny days with sky high temperatures, where the tarmac is melting, elderly people are being warned to keep cool, and reservoirs 'may' dry up - are what people thrive on and it gets them talking. Like wise a bit of rain over a couple of weeks does nothing, but excessive downpours, flash floods, cars disappearing into flooded rivers and houses up to their roofs in water does engage people. So for Piers' sake - if he can get the excessive bits right - the storms - the blizzards, the floods - then people will take note. It may have snowed 'a bit' up north this week, but no-one down here
On 07 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn twitter (today in Tunisia) wrote:

THANKS ALL. I am at the International Association of Operative Millers conference in Tunisia and the MetO or any equivalent is not here, which must say something. On extremes we probably underestimate as much as overstate but people tend to notice overstates. we intend to be USEFUL rather than RIGHT as first aim. Whereas MetO is the opposite. Talk to farmers who use our forecasts and you will see. ALSO our forecasts are NOT substitutes for short range but a long range look at possibilities. The cold blast was an important warning for many activities and was right. Amounts of snow etc COULD have been that bad if you shift some distances and temperatures by small amounts but note as some of you have there were a lot of caveats and in terms of snow our 3 weeks ahead was better then MO 3days ahead I think. Further reports welcome. Thanks Piers
On 07 Nov 2013, Rob wrote:

Cairngorm Ski Area to make a decision later today on whether to open at the weekend They are not far off having enough snow.
On 07 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

cont... Piers/MO. This is why the MO are so talked about and followed by so many in regards to Piers. Because they have the PR machine on their side with the capital and marketing knowledge to back it up. Statistics show the effectiveness of spending more and having good advertising on the sale of a product. If this not true then we would all just be promoting our own products and making millions, but we don't, those like Coca Cola who spend the most on advertising sell the most drinks. It will always be difficult for Piers to be main stream, the PR machine is against him, and in support of the MO. That is why they avoid any public or media debates, they don't want Piers to get any PR, famous saying that even bad is still PR. They would rather Piers remain unknown, unheard of so the masses will follow the majority as according to social conformity and their opinions are moulded by the media
On 07 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

cont... this is why first page is used for big news, because they know we switch off after so many pages, its why important articles get a biger seciton compared to articles the newspaper deem less important, like for apologies on their mistakes in reporting are always smaller than the bullshit article they first published. Just watch Derren Brown for an education on how we are easily manipulated by images, colours, sounds, bigger, brighter and more frequent etc. You realy should read the work of Edward Bernays the guy who invented PR as is claimed. He really did deliver on his promises to mould the opinion of the public through the media. So, I personally don't like the big leary dramatic headlines, but I'm not selling a product and I am the exception. Most people love that crap, X-Factor, BGT, The Sun newspaper, Daily Mail, Eastenders etc. Just an opinion, feel free to disagree but perspectives always differ, employer/employee, buyer/seller the majority over the minority or..
On 07 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

cont... I never questined newspapers in my younger days, I was naive and assumed they were good people that were regulated and only posted honest stuff, it was only studying politics in university that my eyes were opened in regards. Aan Sugar explains it well in an experience he had in his younger days, the newspapers reported he was going to be selling some product, and when he got home is mother gave him a row and he said he wasn't selling this poduct, his Mother would not believe him and said it was in the news so it must be so. That is the mindest of masses of people. Then through the study of Psychology, especially hypnosis, persuasion, subliminal messaging, NLP, marketing, social confirmity and various other sections of psychology you learn this is method in the madness. It has been shown that big large dramatic headlines reach us much better. Just got to look at PR, marketing and advertising etc to see how louder, brighter, flashier, repition gives a product the edge...
On 07 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

Nicely put Saskia. I am not sure if I agree or disagree with the methods Piers uses. We all here say about how bad these sensationalist newspaper claims are and how anyone with any sense ignore them but the fact is, a large portion of the population love these crappy newspapers. Thats how PR creates fads, trends, fashions and moulds public opinion. Wasn't it Murdoch who was suppposed to be able to produce an MP or ruin an MP. Isn't that wat much of the hacking scandal was about. For example, day after day I constantly hear people regurgitating these rediculous headlines as a matter of fact, so they do work, hence Murdochs low quality papers being the most popular in te country, I do believe one of his papers was the bigges selling, although I may be wrong. To be honest I think the types of people here that do not take these headlines seriously are the exception and not the rule. So although we may not like the style you can't deny the success of the papers like the Sun...
On 07 Nov 2013, shaun wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24844182 Wind turbine costing £48,000 generates £5 of electricity a month. With a total of 800 years before it even pays for the cost of buikding it what a bargain. But when you consider the maintenance costs and the labour costs involved in that maintenance, surely that wind turbine will never pay for itself. It's a bit misleading to quote just the construction cost and not mention the ongoing costs. So really that will generate a forever increasing deficit.
On 07 Nov 2013, Max Kent wrote:

I've subscribed to Pier's forecast intermittently almost from the time he started them. His accuracy has improved dramatically from low 20% to an average 70-80% now. However I do sympathise with Lorraine G When your trying to sell Piers to sceptical farmers and bosses the literal forecast is what they look at. I too was desperate for snow confusion to prove to my boss that a subscription was cost effective ! . Sadly saying that if the temp had been lower the rain front that came in on cue would have been snow doesn't always cut it .... Don't give up Lorraine, Piers is good and getting much better.
On 06 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:

Although I tend to agree that the overall somewhat LOUD tone of the website might be somewhat annoying - and possibly off-putting to some - I for one much rather be warned about a POSSIBLE disaster and/or inconvenience than have a roof cave in over my head and go "Wha ...?!". Take Hurricane Piers (wink) for example. Despite the (rather unavoidable) damage to the house, the fact that I paid heed to Piers' warnings and kept my kids home that day meant that I was basically the only parent in this area who did NOT need to worry about the well-being of my children. Or had to drive a 80 km round trip to pick them up from school after the worst was over. Yes, Piers gets it wrong. Perhaps because that same solar activity that enables him to predict events FAR ahead of others can also throw a spanner in the works. "To err is human". I prefer the human interaction - with all the rights and wrongs - to the pre-chewed and premeditated machineries of the institutionalized organizations.
On 06 Nov 2013, Lynne (SE Wales) wrote:

I have some sympathy with Lorraine and Paul, Bedfordshire. Maria: whilst Piers does put confidence intervals on his forecasts, and states that he expects 6/8 periods to be correct each month, in his blog/website he raises the expectation that he will outperform the BBC/MO. However, there is little explanation of why certain forecast periods have been incorrect, or overstated (as in the recent 4-8 Nov or late Oct Storm - virtually no damage in SE Wales). I am very supportive of Piers' alternative to BBC/Met Office forecasting, but I would be much more supportive if he would provide ongoing verification of his forecasts. I recognise that there are time/resource constraints, so I think this would be a great CitizenScience project if someone has the knowledge to set it up? If we could get people in the UK regions to log daily weather, and log that against Piers and week-ahead BBC/MO predictions, I think that could be a powerful marketing tool for WA!
On 06 Nov 2013, Hankscorpion wrote:

Paul, Bedfordshire: I completely agree with you. I made the same point last year but Piers cannot see that with his 'Daily Express' style headlines then people will not take him seriously. Whilst the forecasts are more accurate than the bbc/mo and he stands by the forecast, we all need these to be less sensationalist so that it will help us all spread the message. Piers - please take note and let us help you make your point to the rest of the world.
On 06 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

My question would be - has this R period really got going yet since there is a coronal hole yet to face us and strengthen the solar wind and a magnetic crochet from an X class flare yesterday? Would a big solar shove send the low lurking to the north down across the country? With the snow that has fallen, I don't recall that being mentioned on the Mobeeb 'forecasts'. The warm jet stream to the south of the country was and the same area of warm air was shown as per the image Piers posted at the weekend, suggesting the cold weather hasn't come south - yet. Feel free to correct my erroneous observations.
On 06 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Saskia - did you mean incandescent lamps were banned by the EU in 2012? That is a bit of a grey area. The excellent Christopher Booker requested the government department send him the precise legislation for this and they had nothing to offer other then the Directive which doesn't apply until included in UK legislation. Furthermore, the ban is only for domestic use so over here you can buy incandescent lamps that are for 'industrial use' and are basically the same. Some might be labelled 'rough service' with thicker filaments for use in inspection lamps. Compact fluorescents are only good in certain areas and I have found them short-lived as they ofter have a very low heat tolerance. Hence, the suggestion was to change your light fittings to suit these defective lamps. Turning them on and off shortens their life greatly. And the advice is not to leave them on in an empty house in case they fail. I had one go off bang and blew the lighting circuit fuse! LEDs are much better.
On 06 Nov 2013, shaun wrote:

@ Lorraine G, lol. the temps have undeniably changed for much of the UK. You can't expect the borders between rain and snow to be exact. For example, if you would prefer the MO forecasting then the recent Piers Corbyn Storm was forecast up until the night before by the MO to batter South Wales, well it didn't happen. Then the storm that came after that which Piers had forecast way ahead aswell, wasn't even flagged by the MO as a storm in South Wales. To be fair Piers forecasts this 6 weeks ahead much of the time and MO literally only a couple of days before, or in the case of the storm that hit after Piers Corbyns storm they didn't even manage to forecast it for South Wales until we could see it for our selves out the window. Piers doesn't claim to have 100% accuracey, so why expect it, bu the people who target his few mistakes like to ignore the many many mistakes of MO and other model watchers
On 06 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Looraine G: Many of us did get the snow Piers forecast a fortnight ago, maybe not in the amounts he suggested, but it did get here on time. How does that compare with what the Mobeeb were forecasting two weeks ago!? What would you prefer a forecast that was not so severe as first suggested or a severe bout of weather that takes you totally by surprise?
On 06 Nov 2013, Michael wrote:

Piers' forecast for travel chaos was IMO a little to extravagant. The problem is that us mere mortals are interpreting his charts and snow/rain boundaries too literally, me included. Now, unless travel chaos includes, tractors, couriers, postman pat and BT vans all getting stuck in the snowy highlands and mountains, then it's off the mark. Piers' did state clearly though rain/snow boundaries uncertain. Looking forward to WA xmas forecast, although I'm not expecting much in terms of snow, not whilst the AO is firmly positive.
On 06 Nov 2013, maria ( 45 day sub) somerset wrote:

Lorraine G. The forecasts are explained very well indeed. You just had to look at the % chance of it happening and the R factor. Piers does not supply a nannying forecast, we are meant to use them accordingly, which does require a degree of intelligence
On 06 Nov 2013, paul, bedfordshire wrote:

If piers has a fault it seems to me that he overdoes the extreme scenarios. Such extreme scenarios are inevitably less likely to occur than the main thrust of the forecast and gives critics and knockers an open goal when the basic forecast is spot on , as in this case with the dramatic shift to cold polar air giving wintry conditions on high ground in the north east
On 06 Nov 2013, Richard T wrote:

Well done Piers that snow is only 20 minutes or so away from me ,shame it did not make it here ,but the last few mornings have been cold , i start 5.30am at work ,Friday 1st + 1c, frost ,mon 4th +2c, tues 5th +2c certainly cold enough for snow,if those clouds had moved a few miles down the road and the dew points were there we too would also be white , next time i will have my camera to hand ,ready to post :)
On 06 Nov 2013, Lorraine G wrote:

I live in Yorkshire which according to Piers forecast we were looking at severe travel chaos I now look a complete twit now in our household as we have had no snow! I have been trying to persuade local farmers to buy Pier's forecasts it does not help when severe weather is forecast which does not happen.
On 06 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Snow on 5th November not foreseen by the Mobeeb's standards models!?. I reckon we could say that they had a real Fawkes-up on that one! ---next?
On 06 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:

Because of Global Warming, within the Netherlands ...farmers are forced to INJECT manure, thereby depleting the top soil of nutrients; people are forced to buy low energy light bulbs which contain MERCURY and do not supply the wavelength spectrum needed to remain healthy during dark months; sale of fluorescent light bulbs is FORBIDDEN as of 2012; it will become mandatory for ALL houses to have double glazing and roof insulation within 6 years, the extra costs of which need to be covered by home owners applying for a loan; etc etc etc. But Big Brother is on a rampage now. Ground beef may only contain a certain percentage of fat, whereas the brain NEEDS fat; sugar in foods will become restricted and advertisements for sugary foods forbidden, whereas the brain NEEDS sugar (leaving the risks of artificial sweeteners aside); trans fats are to be forbidden in all food; X-large portions are to be forbidden in all restaurants. Need I continue? OT: it's a LOT colder with rain and hail.
On 05 Nov 2013, Dom Wycliffe wrote:

This is insane, apparently farmers are causing global warming simply by ploughing their fields...! Erm... were we not ploughing fields thousands of years ago too?! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24817837
On 05 Nov 2013, jpt wrote:

Just watched a 2003 documentary on Mount Kilimanjaro in which it was said that due to global warming amongst other things the mountain would be 'glacier free' by 2015. So I did some research and latest figures say that the mountain will be glacier free by 2060. Say no more.
On 05 Nov 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:

"Bonfire Night's all white! Snow falls in Northern hills with temperatures dipping to freezing point" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487760/UK-weather-Bonfire-Nights-white-Snow-falls-Northern-hills-temperatures-dipping-freezing-point.html
On 05 Nov 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:

I guess more smug looks in the mirror Piers Snow as forcast... 2" in Teesdale & Weardale Co Durham http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487760/UK-weather-Bonfire-Nights-white-Snow-falls-Northern-hills-temperatures-dipping-freezing-point.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
On 05 Nov 2013, Michael wrote:

Hey all! Another report from here in Japan. After an extremely hot summer we had a very warm way above average autumn so far, with the last couple of weeks being about average for the time of year. But looks like we have our first blast of winter coming in proper next week with -temps and snow on the forecast for where I live as well as some other areas of Japan. Will be interesting to see how that pans out. I will update next week if the fore mentioned should eventuate.
On 05 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Wish I'd put a bet on a white Guy Fawkes day as it started snowing here at 130m altitude about 45 minutes ago.
On 05 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Here in Dorset it is Wet this morning 10c temp, Feeling chilly but not to cold, I see the Mo said snow on northern hills and a temp of 4c tonight.
On 05 Nov 2013, Nigella wrote:

Infrequent subscriber. Took advantage of the buy one get one free offer - thank you Piers. Looks like a very active month ahead and will be fascinated to see what December has in store too! East Berkshire damp & chilly this morning. Currently 9 degrees and raining.
On 05 Nov 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

Tornado waning for the north of the North Island NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9363949/Tornado-thunderstorm-warning-for-North. Right on cue with the current R5.
On 04 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Despite a clear night, no frost but a bit of rain first thing, temp 4˚C at 7.30, risng to 8 despite a blustery NW wind, sunny all day to boot, by evening though it felt like a frost coming with the wind all but disappearing. And so it did, by 10pm it was 1˚C and the car was well frosted. Away for a few days so no reports until next week.
On 04 Nov 2013, David C wrote:

Great October forecast. Not so sure the 4th - 8th period of this month is going to plan? Will this affect the rest of this months forecast Piers??
On 04 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

We are now into a standard early winter picture up here in the Perthshire Highlands. Air frosts down to -5C and snow down to 650 metrrs or so with tomorrow's front giving snow down to 200 metres as it comes in from the Atlantic. Spot on again Piers. Got in another months supply of timber for the stove for what's coming later
On 04 Nov 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:

On 04 Nov 2013, Saskia Steinhorst "Oh yes, and criticizing the EU has now been equaled to fascism" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179902/Revealed-The-secret-report-shows-Nazis-planned-Fourth-Reich--EU.html http://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com/articles/Intelligence_Report_EW-Pa_128.html Makes me wonder ....... !
On 04 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Re Mark Flannery previous comments thread - the Met Office have to denigrate long range weather forecasters to cover up for their own ability to do so. And to get more accurate forecasting means that they have to admit that there are other forces that influence our climate and weather aside from their beloved CO2. Given that they were one of the prime drivers of the scare, they will be among the last to be dragged kicking and screaming into the modern world.
On 04 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Cooler and bright here - for one day (not really cold though) then back to rain again tomorrow. Low lying fields now flooded in some places. Ground starting to suffer. Cattle have started coming home to stop poaching.Heavy rain again due Weds according to MO.