Comments from Piers

Going to parts other forecasters cannot reach

Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR +44(0)207939 9946 From Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320 piers@weatheraction.com www.weatheraction.com Twitter address Piers_Corbyn

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Contents:

1) News as it comes with newest (approx) first depending on logical sequencing also.

2) Feature of this Post. 3) Reader Comments

1) News as it comes –

1.0. JUNE News 6, 7, 8, 9th... June and Discussion on possible further reversion of June SLAT8 forecast (one section later in month) back towards SLAT7a.

Piers says "This is a very interesting Spring and Summer. The near Little Ice Age weather patterns we predicted are real and now. Our Solar Lunar Action Technique SLAT 7a has been very skilled at getting the cold and wet blasts for which other long range forecasters failed. Our advance to SLAT8 to capture better some the wild fluctuations and extremes worked well across the world on 5-8th June but did not work for Britain & Ireland; so to enable users to join in developments 30day forecast subscribers now have both the SLAT7a version of June (issued 16 May as 15-45day forecast) which did work 5-8 June and the SLAT8 30day update which went wrong for that period. The two forecasts are the same except for another period later in June which we are reviewing and will post an update to the forecast area shortly. Thank you for your interest and support"

1.1. The Jubilee period (2-5th June) forecast was a great success

- accurately warning of rain at the amazing boat pageant on Sunday 3rd and the likely improved weather for later on Monday 4th at that brill concert! However there was some rain on the Tue 5th parade - more than we expected. Of the Jubilee period the wettest day was 3rd as we warned it would be because it came in the centere day of the 2-4th R4 period.

See Reader comments below for praise from users and we just got thanked by someone who won some bets on Weather over the Jubilee with friends using our WeatherAction forecast!

1.2. The R5 period 6-7th JUNE showed considerable thunder etc activity - see reports Thunderfloods Britain/Ireland - extensive and major, Europe (see Readers Reports below for Netherlands and Austria), Massive snow storms Australia (*Readers comments below), New Zealand**.

For links to specific and general events - USA*** and around world including South Africa reported from on the ground - see COMMENTS Section, John Ledger.

*** There were 23 tornado warnings from the USA National Weather Service on Thurs 7th (6/7th utc)

* There were major snowstorms in Australia and an M6.0 Earthquake on 7th preceded by an Earth-Facing Coronal hole on 4/5th http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9759#comments_top

** News from New Zealand - Lorraine Lister Re Responses to R5 period around 6-7th -

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-weather/7049834/Flooding-on-Wellington-roads

NOTE For Britain and Ireland the weather is in fact sticking with remarkably accurate timing to the R5 WET/DELUGES '45day' forecast issued May16th rather than the SLAT8 amendment (issued 29 May) for this weather period for drier and warmer. Users should note this amendment was only at BC (70%) level and the result does not affect the SLAT8 amendment to the forecast later in the month.

The 45day forecast is now added to the 30day box for information to 30day users. The SLAT8 marked amendment later in the month still stands although it is under review.

Piers Corbyn said (7 June) "We over-applied the new SLAT8 to the 5-8 June period but are still confident SLAT8 which includes SLAT7a etc will normally give improvements to SLAT7a in periods of difficult (and often stark) choices."

Piers continued (8 June) "The BBC's Chris Fawkes, superb video below is a vindication of our general warning of Little Ice Age type weather issued months ago, our specific cold (most of) May forecast and a drastic change fronm their usual vids in that it actually talks about the Jet Stream. Very interestingly he foresees no clear end to the admitted South tracking lows - as explicitly warned by us at WeatherAction - and 'Jet Stream acceleration' to SE of Britain. This does NOT however mean we will not get some sort of split jet / high pressure block later in the month even if at first sight it points away from that and back to SLAT7A continuing best un-amended. Standard Met has no consistent skill 2 weeks ahead. WATCH THIS SPACE"

1.3 => RECOMMENDED VIDEO VIEWING: i Watch Piers below. ii Watch Chris Fawkes below

i) New WeatherAction - Piers VIDEO taken June 1st: MAY report, pre new Little Ice Age weather +new SLAT8 to cope with its rapid changes http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9735

ii) BBC 8th June now admit switch to Jet Stream South and South tracking Lows around Britain HAS OCCURRED - 'LIA type circulation' as warned by Piers and discussed in latest WeatherAction Video:

Readers Note sent in by On 08 Jun 2012, whenthesethings wrote:

2) Great vid. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/18374637 (Chris Fawkes)

Even BBC are now acknowledging most of May was cold and wet .....and conformation of unsual southerly tracking of the jet sream., in line with your signs of LIA Piers.

1.4. (2 June) Europe June weather drama FREE SUMMARY!
WeatherAction Euromaps summary forecast FREE PUBLIC RELEASE and great news comments on WeatherAction May important vitally useful forecast. Please post and post on - and quote and quote on about May in Britain & Europe - especially to blogs and contacts in Europe, Thanks Piers http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/WA%20News%2026%202012.pdf

UPLOAD NEWS - ALL Forecasts for JUNE are uploaded.

RTQ (Red weather, Thunder-tornado, Quake trails) runs from 4th June because Jun 1-3 was issued in May RTQ

DailyQuake BREAKING: Italy struck M5.8 aftershock 29^th May http://climaterealists.com/9705 #ClimateRealists. This is in a WeatherAction Qv3 risk period

2) SLAT8 begins! - forecasts for Approaching Little Ice Age type circulation changes

Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com on 29^th May said:

"After studying weather developments in the last two months we have introduced some modifications to our Solar Lunar Action Technique. SLAT7a - which was about improving selection of detailed look-backs using lunar factors more strongly - did superbly at predicting the exceptionally cold weather in the first three weeks of May but does not well see the VERY RAPID ("Little Ice Age” type) changes experienced and specifically missed the sudden warming of around 22^nd.
"Although our ‘at least 6 out of 8 weather periods basically correct’ in a month was met in May we want to improve on that and better handle the "approach to LIA weather types” REGIME the world is now in.

"The approach to LIA circulation we are now in (see also http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=451&c=5 ) is Solar Climate change here and now and is characterized by:

On the Sun a generally quieter and magnetically more confused state and slower solar wind.

Very large amplitude swings in the Jet stream (NH and SH) with the Jet stream average position shifted equator-wards.

General Cooling especially of temperate zones and simultaneous warm and cold (larger) regions marking different ‘ends’ of jet stream large amplitude wave effects.

Very rapid changes in weather particularly in temperate zones

Rapid changes in standard parameters – NAO, AO etc

Stark extremes including more giant hail and tornadic developments.

An increase in major earthquakes and volcanism

Serious limitations of the powers of standard meteorology even 1 or 2 days ahead at times. This was in evidence through most of April and May. These problems will largely continue for at least 25 years and no amount of tweeking standard models or increasing computer power even a thousand fold will overcome it. Standard Meteorology is past it's peak.

SLAT8 is designed to better predict in the approach to the New Little Ice Age circulation patterns the world is now in and uses a wider range of look-back weather data (NB we are constantly seeking more) and considers more rapid change options which may need more modification or changes (if rules suggest) of Look-Back maps particularly under potential sudden Jet stream switches and consequent sudden warming or sudden cooling in regions. SLAT 8 will also (as previous SLATs but more effectively) be able to give long range warning of impending errors in standard Meteorology.

June 2012 45day forecasts have been significantly changed in two weather periods through the month and this is indicated in the 30day forecast to be released on 31 May.

A general consequence of SLAT is that the Little Ice Ages** and periods such as The Medieval warm period and Bronze age were consequences of solar-lunar driven Jet stream shifts and hence covered the whole of the temperate zones in both North and South hemispheres at around the same time.
** Eg the Maunder Minimum around 350 years ago and the Dalton Minima around 200 years ago.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING NOW. IT IS DRIVEN BY THE SUN AND NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2!

READER COMMENT FROM P JONES RE MAY and other comments....Well I sent that James Madden of Exactaweather quite a strongly worded and obnoxious e mail in reference to his coldest May posting about you. I then received this in response a few days later; "I am sorry you feel like that about my posting. However, I would say I have been more than fair in my comments and if anything 'supportive' towards the original claims that Piers made about May and the unwarranted/hostile publicity he has received of late for it. If it came across as differently to yourself, then that was unintentional." Not such a bad chap after all! and after reading it back he has defended you.

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The forecasts this JUNE show major extreme events and situations in all parts of World forecasted - B+I, Eu and USA. This suggests there will also be extreme events in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Pacific, Africa - anywhere - at approx the same time as the forecasted extremes in Europe & USA. Forecasts on web are:

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World RTQ RedWarns+Thunder-tornado+MajorQuakeRisk (Xtreme Events Rest Of World) - 1 page. Latest dramatic quake events & analysis are carried on ClimateRealists

Britain & Ireland 15-45day ahead forecast for JUNE 2012 was uploaded on 16th May - 4 pages and includes (later) MAY30day: Britain & Ireland; Europe-North Atlantic Pressure forecast AND Quakes & Red Warnings (extreme events Rest Of World) forecasts.
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3) READERS COMMENTS & FEEDBACK:


Comments submitted - 111	Add your comment
On 17 Jul 2012, Anand wrote: Awesome job! I built ours last year, and after the first one, the others went at a pttery good clip! The real shock though came when I had to fill them with soil. I just couldn't see where it all was going. It felt like I was shoveling for days, as each one of mine took a little over a cubic yard of soil! So worth it though (we have awful native soil here), and my veggies have been rewarding me handsomely this year in return. Can't wait to see them all planted out! On 13 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Rob....The BBC are certainly the mouthpiece of the Met Office but the Met are owned by the Ministry of Defence and funded by the same taxpayers. The BBC is also funded by the tax payer through the license fee...that's why it's compulsory, its a tax. I think that's why they are lumped together because they all drain the tax coffers and they all tread the same global warming path. The forecasters who were fired recently due to cuts in spending have over the years made comments which could be said to go against the global warming mantra. The BBC won't tolerate dissenters. The small print does state 'The BBC in association with The Met Office'. They are joined at the hip..! ......> http://www.wordwebonline.com/search.pl?ww=6&w=association <..... On 13 Jun 2012, Richard Pinder wrote: You will be waiting an eternity for the BBC to produce a documentary on what really causes Climate Change. An hour long documentary in English called “The Cloud Mystery” has been produced by an independent Danish media production company. The DVD can be purchased on the www.thecloudmystery.com website. The AGW theory is just an assumption that is taken as a fact, a violation of the scientific method. On 12 Jun 2012, Rob wrote: As this is a forum that likes to deal in facts I thought it best if we cleared up the confusion that there seems to be over the UKMO & the BBC. People seem to be lumping them together, the BBC is a broadcaster that broadcasts forecasts issued by the Met Office, it is not responsible for making up the forecasts. Hopfully one day soon we will see a documentary producer from the BBC make a programme exposing the flawed and false science of AGW. On 12 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: Ryan Maue tweeted earlier "Ugly weather for UK Thurs-Fri as warm seclusion (occluded) extratropical low spins down. Wind and rain." http://bit.ly/KqRKEN +++ GFS have the centre of the low now moving up through Southern Ireland with 988MB of pressure. MetO has it as a deeper low than yesterday with tighter packed isobars. The MetO model differed from the track shown in the TV forecast which had the low heading on a more westerly track. ECMWF has the low crossing from Southern Ireland across Lancashire and into the North Sea passing via the North East. On 12 Jun 2012, Steve,Dorset. wrote: This is an article in the daily mail by Richard Littlejohn he has a good swipe at the global warmists, worth a look made me smile. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2157831/Its-raining-pouring-thatll-global-warming-.html On 12 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: Scott, try this as an alternative to the alarmist article that starts with the presumption the science is settled. The abstract starts with 'observed basin-scale temperature changes are consistent with model responses to anthropogenic forcing and inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural variability." The problem with models is when you put garbage in you get garbage back. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/11/scientists-claim-greenhouse-gases-largely-to-blame-for-warming-oceans/ ==== http://judithcurry.com/2012/06/11/causes-of-ocean-warming/ On 12 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: On my local BBC forecast they said there are no signs the jetstream will shift in the next two weeks. Presumably it will get eventually get bored and saunter off so we get some reasonable weather. What a highly skilled forecast that is!! On 12 Jun 2012, Saskia Steinhorst wrote: (continued) In Europe, the Dutch KNMI is responsible for processing the worldwide satellite wind measurements and the accompanying services. Wind measurements are directly used by meteorologists for maritime weather warnings. Indirectly the measurements are necessary for generating weather prognoses and are used for climate research and analyses. The International Ocean Vector Winds Science Team is very diverse. It consists of equipments experts from a.o. the NASA Jet Propulsian Laboratory, meteorologists from the National Hurricane Centre, oceanographists from leading universities and experts from the energy sector. The IOVWST meeting is sponsored by NASA, the Utrecht municipality and the Dutch KNMI, and co-organized by the Florida State University. The KNMI organizes this meeting because of its role in the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facilities. Just thought you might be interested in this bit of news. On 12 Jun 2012, Saskia Steinhorst wrote: (Translated from an article on the Dutch KNMI website) Maritime wind measuring experts from around the world are gathering this week in Utrecht, The Netherlands for an international congress.Participants of the International Ocean Vector Wind Science Team Meeting were welcomed today by the mayor of Utrecht. The wind experts will be informing each other up to June 15th of the newest developments in the area of satellite wind measurements. At the congress new standards will be developed for processing the international satellite measurements, so wind data can be used in a similar manner worldwide. For this purpose, satellite programs from Europe, the US, China, Japan and India will be synchronized in order to profit optimally from each other’s satellite programs, measurements and knowledge. The predominant method of measuring wind at sea these days is done via measuring equipment on satellites. On 12 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: This is the first time in many years that I have seen all ponds, lakes, rivers, streams and reservoirs full to bursting in the middle of June. Also the grass and trees are looking so lush. Huge Rhododendron shrubs are putting on an almost perfect show. The rain, cold and wind over the last couple of months doesn't seem to have affected young bird numbers which are plentiful. I noticed the Swallows and later Swifts were very late arriving this year but their numbers are very healthy now that they're here. I wonder, will we still get Swallows in 2050? They don't seem to like cold weather and neither do the flies they feed on. We need to hurry up and develop genetically modified crops which aren't killed by a foot of snow because the bread baskets of the world like Canada will have a shortened growing season in LIA conditions. You think £6 ($9) for a gallon of fuel is bad, wait till bread is £5 a loaf and coffee £12 a jar...... { :^ ( On 12 Jun 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote: Paul I do know that the two winters 1988/9 and 1989/90 produced Europe-wide High Pressures (which presumably meant the Jet Stream going north for a long time) which lasted 3 months and 2 months respectively. They had huge, huge implications for the Alpine ski-ing industry with the second of those years seeing one of the most widespread lack of snow up to high altitudes seen in the 20th century. It was broken in the 2nd week of February with up to 4 metres of snow in the French, Italian and Southern Swiss resorts (the five days storm saw torrential rain in Swiss resorts susceptible to the Foehn which induced landslides as well). A week later a second storm of 6 days bombarded the Alps which saved the season. The 30 day snowfall records in Switzerland occurred in 1999 or 2011/12, the former saw two weeks of uninterrupted blizzards and the latter saw four weeks of pretty uninterrupted snowfall. On 12 Jun 2012, Paul wrote: There were mild periods in the LIA and some people think it was permanently cold every winter. What is the longest length of time in which the jet stream can be stuck so producing a prolonged cold or warm spell. On 12 Jun 2012, Richard Bruce wrote: It has been very interesting reading the Met Office forecasts for our local area near Harrogate.in the past two years If you look at their 5 day forecasts and pick day 5, you will notice huge changes for that day as you go through the week. I have also noticed, that even on today's forecast, the predicted weather is often quietly changed to try and match what is actually happening. In other words, they really haven't a clue with the weather wildly swinging from one extreme to another. The BBC weather forecasts, or as I would prefer to describe them the mouthpiece of global cooling deniers, often uses the phrase "there is a great deal of uncertainty" when describing weather events in a few days time. On 12 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Well said Lorraine and when that happens. let's have a GC Day party and make it an annual event. We can even offer ex warmists a role in our band 'Jet Stream and the Junk Scientists' On 12 Jun 2012, Scott wrote: Pretty new to the site and noting the many educated opinions, wondered if there was any opinion on the research posted on the following site and what if any connection there may be to climate etc.? http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/06/11/humans_warming_the_oceans/ On 12 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: Metro 12/06/12 pg.9 quotes; "Britain will be hit by even more flooding today after 2 months worth of rain fell in just 30 hours to swamp homes and cause travel chaos yesterday...10cm (4in) of rain fell across the country...Hundreds of flooding incidents were reported, hitting homes in the south east and north as the Met Office RUSHED OUT rare amber severe weather warnings for 'very difficult driving conditions'." Piers et al, I have repeatedly challenged the Met Office and certain newspapers regarding their lack of credibility when it comes to both forecasting and glossing over the truth, but the article above was interesting as it seems even the press are turning on the MO now, hence the sarcasm implied in the "RUSHED OUT" part of their article. As a nation faces another day of torrential downpours and develops S.A.D, one wonders what it will take to move the budget from the MO supercomputers and into WeatherAction HQ?!? On 11 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: 2/2 "UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Jun 2012 to Tuesday 10 Jul 2012: There are no strong signals for any specific weather type to dominate this period. However there is a possibility of slightly more settled conditions than of late, particularly in southern and perhaps eastern areas, with rainfall around or slightly below average. Into the start of July there is a weak signal for slightly wetter than average conditions in the northwest. Temperatures probably remaining around average throughout." +++++ No mention of any heat or above average temps. June written off on current output. On 11 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: 1/2 MetO forecast Issued at: 1441 on Mon 11 Jun 2012 "UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jun 2012 to Monday 25 Jun 2012: The weekend will see rather unsettled weather across the United Kingdom. Strong winds and rain will affect many areas on Saturday, followed by locally heavy showers on Sunday. The weather will remain unsettled into next week with a mixture of bright spells and showers, some of which may be heavy and thundery, and perhaps even some more persistent rain at times. There are some indications that southern and eastern parts of the UK will become generally drier and brighter towards the end of next week, although occasional spells of rain or showers remain possible. Northern and western parts will probably stay unsettled though with a greater chance of seeing periods of rain. Temperatures will probably be a little below average at first, but should recover to close to average later." On 11 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: Ron re: your thoughts on the Jet Stream "Next it'll be why it flicks around so much and so quickly---now how can CO2 do that then?" Of course CO2 moves the jetstream in this erratic way. It can do ANYTHING if someone is providing the funding and you're allowed to create a super computer as tax payers expense. As was pointed out over at WUWT ‘global warming stunts black holes’ so a puny jetstream would be nothing. I'd beat myself with a hockey stick but that just went up in flames too http://bit.ly/LeKhXx On 11 Jun 2012, Craig M wrote: A low is being forecast to head over us in the next R period. The models agree on this low crossing the British Isles. The Met O have it spreading from the South West. ECMWF have it crossing from SW to the Humber, GFS have it a more potent low crossing SW-NE over the Irish sea into the South of Scotland. Lots of potential rain for Wales. If this pulls up warm air from France that could produce heavy rain+hail etc. Lots of uncertainty & dependent upon the track so expect last minute changes from the MetO. Uncertainty also as to how much the low will deepen which impacts on winds.. As it is an Amber warning out by the MetO for SE areas for Monday/Tuesday. Today the temperature peaked at 12C. Cool weather but last year was similarly cold if not colder at points. The ensembles point to no real changes until the end of their runs, the MetO have no major changes for the next fortnight. On 11 Jun 2012, Lorraine wrote: I wonder who will be the first person on the media communication will bring themselves to say 'Global Cooling' On 11 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: I think Ron Greer has a great idea....turn the tables and start calling warmists 'LIA deniers'! Strange how the warmists future predictions are all exact opposites of what is most likely, such as all the Himalayan glaciers will have doubled in size and the UK will have a white xmas every year by 2050?..... Thinking up LIA scenarios is fun. Try ice skating on Lake Michigan, Husky driven sleds along Sunset Boulevard, Igloo building for beginners in Colorado Springs, gritting trucks fitted with snow plough blades in Dallas, well, maybe that's pushing the boundaries of probability a bit too far. What about a new ski resort in Oman? Can you imagine the fun the Australians will have zooming around the outback on skidoos? ........ By the way Piers, after studying the 45 day forecast for June I see that you started off on 15th May being 100% correct, then threw a wobbler, but the fact remains that you were still correct 3 weeks ahead just using a laptop and a Biro. On 11 Jun 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote: 'On 04 Jun 2012, John wrote: do you think these little ice age type events will stay or will weather and jet go back to normal until the solar min , it seems to me we are in a mini ice age now and have been for past few years , the winters west europe has seen have been very cold since 2009' John There was a similar run from about 1979 to about 1987 at least 5 of those winters were very cold and 1982/3 was very mild. Scottish mountaineers also wrote that the 1930s say a run of cold winters, whereas the 1950s were mild. On 11 Jun 2012, storm1987 wrote: The beeb forecasters always talked about the jet stream 10+ years ago. It is only recently, at the same time that they stopped showing synoptic charts, that they dumbed it down and haven't mentioned it much. Shame. On 11 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Aye, Jet Stream is now cool( pun intended) and hip with the MO-Beeb, with another substantial mention in the main evening news bulletin. Next it'll be why it flicks around so much and so quickly---now how can CO2 do that then? On 11 Jun 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote: THANKS ALL --- Are BBC-MetO talking Jet stream because we do? I think 'sort-of'. Basically like politicians and ignoramiouses in debate they raise anything 'clever sounding' that they can to divert attention from their failures (in this case total failure to warn the public). "Oh the JET STREEEEAM (Arn't we clever to even know about it?!) did wow look.......". Of course this is trickery. I welcome mention of Jet Stream (10 years overdue) but look it is part of weather and that in short term is THEIR JOB . They might as well say "Oh it RAAAAIIINED a lot that's why it flooded". Now at WeatherAction we specifically warn that in all R4 and R5 periods precip amounts in short range Met (12-24h ahead) should be (at least for R5) doubled (spelt out eg in RTQ forecasts). So considering STEVE DEVINE's NOTE BELOW 2(at least)x (50 to 80mm) = At least 100 to 160mm So for R5 take the upper one and we get 160mm = 6inches and a bit THIS IS WHAT FELL IN PARTS OF WALES. Pass it on!! Amen On 11 Jun 2012, Steve C wrote: Re. all the comments on the Sunday Mirror / Beeb / MO suddenly commenting on the Jet Stream, has everyone seen it lately? As Charlie Brown said, "Good grief!" http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250 On 11 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Yet another mention by the MO-Beeb of the Jet Stream ,and it being further south than usual, in the the main lunchtime news bulletin today. Is a volte face in the offing!? On 11 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: Met Office named and shamed in todays Metro newspaper where their lowest level (Yellow) Alert and warnings of 50-80mm of rain was their idea of 120mm of raib and widespread severe flooding in Wales. All eyes now to the SW for the weekend storm... On 10 Jun 2012, Malcolm wrote: BBC Weather updated for York for 22.00 from white cloud, now showing light rain shower. It is amazing how quick their forecasts change!, maybe my e-mail prompted them too update the forecast :-) as the super computer at the Met Office was incapable of deciding if it would be dry or wet lol. On 10 Jun 2012, Malcolm wrote: I have just this minute taken a look at the BBC weather forecast for York and it shows sunny intervals for 7.pm and at 22.00 white cloud yet outside the storm clouds have been gathering it is dark grey and looks like we may get some heavy rain anytime soon. I decided to let the BBC know that their forecast was way off, how anyone can plan anything around their failed models/forecasting is beyond me. It is no wonder people are caught out by the weather when the BBC are putting out false forecast information. On 10 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: The MO-Beeb Countryfile forecast went with the Jet Stream 'thingmebob' again. Is it just a fad or have they been looking at your videos? On 10 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Don't know if you've noticed that I very frequently refer to the' MO-Beeb' to sum up the unholy alliance. They are indeed 'in it together' I see the Paul Hudson blog site was fulll of references to Piers and WA, not all friendly but it is an encouraging sign to see them so 'bovvered' Well done on the Climate Realists input Piers and also in Iceagenow. Yes, the Chris Hawkes video was so refreshing and I see parts of New England on the border of the JS has like Wales been getting a serious soaking. At this rate 'denialist; may refere to those not noticing the LIA, but let's be big hearted and not be as petty and pernicious as 'they' were. On 10 Jun 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote: THANKS ALL --- Much appreciated support in these fast moving trollish times --- STEVE DORSET Well done to AW WUWT +Joe Daleo Yes WE - Readers do it! - should WRITE to the Guardian and Independent with copies of letters posted here and Climate Realists & WUWT pointing out what happened and inviting them to inform their readers "In the interests of accountable evidence-based science" (if they know what that is) --- STEVE DEV Thanks yes but what do the Sunday Mirror know? Do they buy our forecasts which are copyright? We should ATTACK MetO for screw-up in Wales. Where was the warning - apart from the usual nowcasts passed-off as warnings? SLAT (all versions) under R5 is clear always at least double any amount of rain or snow Met O say 12 - 24 hr ahead; which here would spell F-L-O-O-D not the Drought we were meant to be on or the Glorious summer to follow the cold 3 wks May, the fools, to use another scientific term! --- RICHARD P, PAUL, RUSS, MetO+BBC they're in it together to CON. On 10 Jun 2012, Richard Pinder wrote: They are getting progressively ignorant at the BBC. They are forgetting that Carbon used to mean Carbon Dioxide, and that Climate Change used to mean Global Warming. So the BBC could become convinced that Climate Change means Global Cooling caused by Carbon black soot. On 10 Jun 2012, Steve,Dorset. wrote: American Meteorological Society disappears withdraws Gergis et al paper on proxy temperature reconstruction after post peer review finds fatal flaws Posted on June 8, 2012 by Anthony Watts Makes you wonder who these people think they are kidding this was trumpeted by the guardian and fellow travellers on the global warming band wagon bet they don,t tell there readers that the paper was FLAWED and withdrawn. On 10 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: Sunday Mirror (pg.15) reports "The rain will remain with us until July, thanks to the jet stream which is stuck across southern britain". Mind you if more people purchased WA forecasts they wouldn't be so surprised to hear this and in so much more detail. Forewarned is forearmed! Hindsight sucks for those swamped at 3am by the Welsh river bank bursting then sweeping through unwitting campsites. What will it take for people to wake up to accurate long range forecasting such as that which Piers produces? Farmers and a minority of the public already know how lives and food could be protected. Subscribe! On 10 Jun 2012, Paul wrote: If we get a series of cold winters coming up not the BBC, met office or any meteorological organisation will be able to say its down to global warming as it will make them look very stupid. A series of cold winters will force their hand and make them reconsider their flawed science. Organisations such as the civil aviation authority, farmers etc will be very angry and demand reliable forcasts based on facts rather than fictional AGW. On 10 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Yes Piers, the Met Offices response to their new contract with the beeb was rather carefully worded. Apparently they will continue to deliver high standards of accuracy and consistency "within revised affordability levels". Well that last bit should have their innacuracy covered, and we all know how consistent they are, consistently wrong! They do say, "you only get the quality if you pay for it"! What's the going rate for a used supercomputer on e-bay?? On 10 Jun 2012, John Planet wrote: The jet stream continue to run south for many years in the late 70s and early 80s and people believed that 1976 was the last hot summer Britain would have. June of 1982 was very wet in the south of Britain with lows often to the south like it is today. I have come across a website called http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1982_weather.htm It tells of what the weather was like in the summer of 1982 in Britain. On 10 Jun 2012, John Planet wrote: We are seeing another year where the jet stream is moving south of Britain and could continue to move south through the rest of this summer. Next year is going to be interesting, its a test whether the period Britain has been in since 2006 is like that of the period since 1976. The seventh summer after 1976 which was 1983 was the next time the country had a proper heatwave. Although the hot weather did not come until July when it did come it produced one of the hottest Julys Britain has had. Both 1976 and 2006 had hot July the hottest month so did that of 1983. On 10 Jun 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote: THANKS ALL! --- RUSS (& 'WHENTHESETHINGS') Yes Wikiipedia is a solid source of CO2 warmist delusion. Chris-"Fingers crossed"-Fawkes did a very good video there, verifying our warnings of JSS (Jet Stream South) and extreme events (floods) all he needed to do was mention the 'Approach-to-LIA' weather now being experienced and he might follow the fate of Tomasz Schavernaker. The tipping point in our fight for climate truth will be reached when the BBC allows phrases like 'LIA type weather' or 'Approach to LIA weather type' to reach the ears of the millions they hold in mental custody. --- JOHN LEDGER Well it was amazing to be there meeting that galaxy of influential and effective people of SouthAfrica you assembled. As soon as Video and photos of the event are ready we will post them on WeatherAction, twitter and ClimateRealists --- ROB+MALCOLM Yes I notice the BBC kept on repeating "I've never seen anything like it in my lifetime" type of interviews - innuendo for Man Made Clim Ch. On 09 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Piers...you could be wrong about global cooling matey! It's all down to Chinese kilowatts........ "A recent study indicates that sulfur emissions from fossil fueled power stations in China have caused a 10-year lull in global warming (1998-2008)" (source Wikipedia)............ The excuses and lame explanations from the AGW crew are even dafter than their theories! On 09 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Chris Fawkes.....fingers crossed....he ought to work for you Piers, he wouldn't need crossed fingers and wishing wells then. Crossed fingers = hope, which is the only thing left when logic and reason have left the building..... Albert Einstein said that insanity is the endless repetition of the same experiments, in the hope of obtaining a different result. (AKA the Met Office supercomputer!)....... "The likelihood of one individual being right increases in direct proportion to the intensity to which others are trying to prove him wrong." - - (Harry Segall...senior psychology lecturer Cornell university)...... "Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it." (Leo Tolstoy) On 09 Jun 2012, John Ledger wrote: We had the privilege of having Piers in South Africa for a couple of days. He arrived on 4 June and that evening was interviewed live on 'News Night' on E-TV. The producers had background clips running of hurricanes, storms, earthquakes and tsunamis while the interview was being conducted - but he kept his focus and came out with credibility. On World Environment Day, 5 June, Piers was the keynote speaker at The Greenest Event, a one day conference aimed at businessmen and attended by nearly 400 people. Most South African businesses have bought into the AGW fantasy and are spending lots of money on reducing their 'carbon footprints'. But they are not very happy about governments proposals to introduce carbon taxes! Piers did a great job of shaking these people up, and they left with the message that they better re-think their business plans. Thank you Piers for your very important contribution - we hope to see you back here soon! On 8 June the weather here changed dramatically! On 09 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: yugee....that's amazing! I haven't heard the UK Met Office forecast giant hail yet. I don't think they believe in it hahaha. If Al Gore finds out about giant hail he'll have it included in the next IPCC report as part of the great warming scenario!....As we all know, warming causes ice. All that heat at the equator wafts toward the poles and by the time it gets there it's turned to ice and snow.....I got that from the Al Gore pop-up book of meteorology for pre-school children. Thanks Al, I always wondered where all that snow at the poles came from..... On 09 Jun 2012, Rob wrote: I see Wales has suffered severe flooding. look and listen in the media today for an expert being asked " is this caused by global warming?" and them giving the stock answer."well we can't say this one weather event is caused by global warming but it is typical of the sort of weather AGW will cause". This is the answer always given, for many years now. So you tell us this is what we'll get but this isn't caused by it (AGW). The real reason of course is that it isn't AGW but you can't say that because you are deluded. On 09 Jun 2012, Malcolm wrote: Severe Flooding in Wales causes major problems and rescues by helicopter, so far 79 people have had to be rescued by emergency services. See link below http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-18378124 Maybe we have enough water now to keep the water companies happy for a while at least. On 08 Jun 2012, whenthesethings wrote: Great vid. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/18374637 Even BBC are now acknowledging most of May was cold and wet .....and conformation of unsual southerly tracking of the jet sream., in line with your signs of LIA Piers. On 08 Jun 2012, Saskia Steinhorst wrote: Update June 8th: fire brigade and police busy throughout the Netherlands with blown over trees (one blocking a major highway) and other storm damage; heavy thunderstorms and rain this evening, accompanied by severe wind gusts; 1 small tornado in province of Limburg this evening; National Weather Bureau (KNMI) now admits that temperatures are well below normal; expectations for this week are a 70% chance of continuation of this weather type, and as of June 15th a 40% chance of temperatures rising to "normal long term annual mean temperatures". More confirmation from farmers in this part of the country that specifically the past 3 years have shown a totally different weather and temperature pattern: Longer, colder periods during winter with increased snow, due East wind well into May, then short warm interval followed by sharp decrease in temps and heavy rain, extreme fluctuations in weather and temps during summer. More water in the ground means colder winters. You're spot on, Piers! On 08 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Philippe...maybe the dinosaurs went the same way? Over and over we here that a comet or asteroid hit the earth and wiped them out but great numbers died very quickly while migrating in herds. Problem is, a nuclear type winter caused by earth impact would not kill off all vegesaurusses. As we all know grass & trees are not killed off by lack of sunlight and cold in winter. The effects would not last long either. Neither would it kill marine animals due to stored heat in the oceans. A very rapid solar caused cooling would do the trick, with seas icing over and all vegies being buried under ice and snow for years. Now that would kill off all the vegesaurusses. Many multiple dino-fossils are found in river beds, the only flowing fresh water when everything feezes over. A few volcano's adding their own cooling effect would just speed things along making it much worse and speeding up the dying. Only survivors being deep sea and small mammals and reptiles seeking refuge under ground. On 08 Jun 2012, yugee wrote: Forecast spot on in Austria Hail storm and thunder. Hail as large as pingpong balls. http://www.heute.at/news/oesterreich/art23655,725655 On 08 Jun 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote: ALL THANKS. Slow updates due to comms probs when I was in South Africa as Keynote speaker at the Greenest Ever event on HM's Diamond Day 5th June and on TV and Radio before and after. Brill time, CO2 delusionism is on run. Reports later. --- ALL Re access to Comments I think probs now gone. --- R5 hit superbly predicted but on detailed circulation response SLAT7A=>SLAT8 we have over-applied SLAT8. What happened 22 May was very special and SLAT8 should affect more than that situation and should still apply later in month BUT under review. Many tempting things to point at 5/6 May but don't get carried away by fab pics of Venus transit, and it was night in SA (Winter there). Key things were solar action including that associated with predicted Earth facing Coronal Hole 4/5th and Lunar factors under both SLAT7a and 8. WATCH THIS SPACE. --- LIA Yes agree we are 'in key aspects of LIA' --- Thanks PC On 08 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: Looks like the June 45 day ahead forecast has nailed the June 5th-8th period! Looks like March could indeed have been our summer! Typical Half Term weather now easing off just in time for the kids to go back to school. And now Thames Water hinting they will be dropping the hose pipe ban in London and the South East soon "if the wet weather continues". Even if the rain does keep falling, I recommend keeping the ban in force until at least autumn. We have a tiny island with a housing shortage, reservoir shortage and infrastructure unable to cope with demand... Excellent work Piers On 07 Jun 2012, Philippe (Alsace) wrote: Hello everybody, Russ: thanks for your kind information; driving home and listening to the song "sowing the seeds of love..." I thought I had made a mistake. Sun and volcanism: yes and what if, in turn, volcanism could bring some additional cooling by the amounts of sulphur dioxyde released in the upper atmosphere in some cases? I've read that in the last book from Vincent Courtillot, a french earth physicist, specialized in paleomagnetism and former director of the Earth Physics Institute. He thinks the huge basic lava trap eruptions and the huge amounts of sulphur released in the upper atmosphere at this occasion , generally on a short time could have cooled the earth (role in the formation of cloud seeds- hey! another question about seeds! sowing the seeds of clouds...it's the sun!!) and provoked the extinction of life in the oceans and on the land by the sudden effect of cooling and the toxic effect of the gases and sudden acidification of the oceans. Bye! On 07 Jun 2012, James wrote: Hi Piers, There was flooding rains in Victoria Australia during 4 June, corresponding with your R4 period. On 07 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Piers I'm confused. Only a day or two after full moon, an M3 flare, venus transit and huge coronal hole Cornwall is hit by storms and the rest of the UK gets a good soaking, which is what I expected... Did you forecast it for France and Western Europe but Cornwall just got in the way?? On 07 Jun 2012, Carl wrote: Piers your Jubilee forecast was skillfully BRILLIANT!!! Right up til Saturday night the MetO dithered and dithered until they came up with "bits and Pieces" of rain and as we all saw on telly it came down in rods and you warned well beforehand there would be more rain than MetO forecasted and i even had a barbeque in the much improved Monday again forecasted accurately by Piers and as for Tuesday i wouldnt beat yourself up over that because the MetO never saw it until at least the Sunday On 07 Jun 2012, Malcolm wrote: The next 48 hours to see 70mph winds and driving rain as an Atlantic storm hits our shores. Link below for the full story in the Daily Mail. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155466/Thought-Jubilee-weather-bad-UK-braced-driving-rain-70-MPH-winds-flooding-48-hours.html On 07 Jun 2012, Richard.T wrote: Wow very strange weather lately looks like slat 7a leads the way way over slat 8 as week one comes to a end with more rain and windy conditions approach today!! On 07 Jun 2012, James wrote: Hi Piers, Confirmation of your June 7 R5 period in Western Australia. "A number of Tornados have swept through northern Perth, damaging homes and businesses and terrifying residents." On 07 Jun 2012, Tamzin wrote: Locals in Christchurch NZ say Canterbury snow dump on June 6 especially in the city and at sea level was the heaviest in living memory On 06 Jun 2012, P Jones wrote: Well I sent that James Madden of Exactaweather quite a strongly worded and obnoxious e mail in reference to his coldest May posting about you. I then received this in response a few days later; "I am sorry you feel like that about my posting. However, I would say I have been more than fair in my comments and if anything 'supportive' towards the original claims that Piers made about May and the unwarranted/hostile publicity he has received of late for it. If it came across as differently to yourself, then that was unintentional." Not such a bad chap after all! and after reading it back he has defended you. On 05 Jun 2012, Lorrine Lister wrote: More on NZ weather http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-weather/7049834/Flooding-on-Wellington-roads On 05 Jun 2012, Lorraine Lister wrote: Winter has arrived in New Zealand with the R5 6/7 June http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10811077 and http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/7045183/Sandbagging-in-Murchison but the Met Service didn't see it coming until about 24 hours ago. Currently blowing a gale with heavy sqally rain here in Motueka (top of the South Island near Nelson), Glad to have your extreme events forecast Piers - forwarned is forearmed! On 05 Jun 2012, John Planet wrote: On the website. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Rainfall/ranked/UK.txt April of 1998 was considered the fourth wettest, June was also the fourth wettest and October was the third wettest on record in Britain. The same as this year April was colder than March. June at the present has started very wet and looks like carrying being wet for a while. On 05 Jun 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote: Interesting to see if your predictions for SE England for 5th - 8th June pan out. They are certainly very different to that forecast by the Met Office..... By the way, it would be useful if you could provide two pieces of information with your forecasts: 1. The average temperature for the month in question either for the UK or, preferably, for various regions (the SE would do for me). 2. What definitions 'cold', 'hot', 'heatwave' mean in terms of deviations from that average. So: is a 'heatwave' > 5C above average, 'cold' > 2C below? Rhys On 05 Jun 2012, dr wrote: Piers, You state that you use lunar modulations to the solar wind as part of the construction of your forecasts. I notice that today / tomorrow is the Venus transit. Did you need to apply a modulation to the solar wind to correct for the passing of venus through the solar wind heading for earth? Thanks On 05 Jun 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote: Well, things aren't a total disaster if you use your nous. My tomato plants are better than they have ever been in previous years, thanks to the two week heatwave and putting them in the garage on the few nights when it gets cold (only one so far). Sure, I started them inside but I have no greenhouse and they are now 70cm high with third trusses forming or formed. Not bad for June 5th. The rain on Saturday night gave them the biggest single day growth boost I've ever seen, just as it made the runner beans roar off into the stratosphere too. There's something about rainwater that tap water or even rainwater collected and stored doesn't quite have: most likely a saturation of oxygen or some trace minerals? To be honest with you, just as Piers rises to challenges that new events bring through updating his SLAT, so farmers and gardeners should update their approaches in response to new knowledge about the weather too. I'd have waited until mid-May to plant the spring onions this On 04 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: The MO -Beeb have not changed their forecast for the week ahead, so ot will be very interesting what turns up when the effects of the latest Coronal Hole hits us on the 5th/7th. This could be definiitive. On 04 Jun 2012, dr wrote: Piers, Do you have any lookback data from solar cycles 12, 14 or 16? If so, do these cycles show any LIA type patterns? I note that these cycles seem to be less active cycles for the sun and they occured after the Dalton minimum. I'm just wondering how unprecedented these LIA patterns that we started to experience in May were? Thanks. On 04 Jun 2012, Ian Ridpath wrote: Just had a rather nice “gotcha” with someone posting under the name DeanMorrison on the Guardian environment blog. He wrote: “I've corresponded with Corbyn and pointed out to him that since the Moon has no magnetic field, it has no influence on the Solar Wind whatsoever”. To which I was able to direct him to this recent NASA news release which shows that the Moon does indeed have an influence on the solar wind: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/electric-moon.html The moral being -- just because you don’t understand the mechanism doesn’t mean the effect is not real. On 04 Jun 2012, John wrote: Hi piers and all posters on here , do you think these little ice age type events will stay or will weather and jet go back to normal until the solar min , it seems to me we are in a mini ice age now and have been for past few years , the winters west europe has seen have been very cold since 2009, makes me wonder if this winter 2012-13 will be very cold , looking back at winters in the mini ice age there was the odd mild one in the mix . By the way peirs congrats on your skill in predicting may being cold On 04 Jun 2012, Andy B wrote: Here is a US site weather prediction which might interest you Piers http://www.dynapred.com/ On 04 Jun 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote: Sever cosmic-ray event around 775. www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature11123.html. IS there any other way to AVERT it, whenever repeated, except Worldwide Lightning Rod-nets? http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?37yp537u1v3q0r3 On 04 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: Hi Piers. The link for your SLAT 8 introduction appears to have broken? Was interested in seeing your thoughts on the LIA and what it means for our summer. Thanks On 04 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Stockholm has in fact recorded its lowest June maximum since 1928. The snow in Vasterbotten followed a spell of record heat a week or so ago. Ring any bells in regard to the recent UK experience? Ring any bells about Piers' prediction of Jet Stream oscillation becoming more extreme and rapid? Anyone one in the MO paying attention? On 04 Jun 2012, Saskia Steinhorst wrote: Sorry to have popped out of sight so suddenly, things have been a bit rough family wise. Now for the weather in The Netherlands: in our opinion this is the 3rd year in a row where winter kept a grip well into May and the wind kept coming from the East, whereas it usually shifts South somewhere in April. Extreme temperatures in May: frost on May 17th at the Twente airbase, and 30.8 degr C on May 23rd! A deluge resulting in 76 mm of rain in a single day ( May 23) in Sint Anthonis in the province of Brabant. Despite the rain, the cold Easterly wind results in very dry agricultural land up North. Birds and insects have been late (!) in producing offspring. Completely in agreement with the LIA prediction we are now clearing land at the back of the house to start building a partially subterranean greenhouse for our own vegetable production, as we think there will actually be food shortages due to failing crops. It's a Seventies and proven concept. One would be wise to be prepared ... On 03 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Ohhh! Watching the Melt Orifice get their forecast half right all the time is so entertaining. By the way, anyone into good sci-fi, anyone like Aliens? Go see Prometheus....you will not be disappointed! Nice to see Piers back on 100% correct track again, although I think he just sank his chance of a knighthood! Waving their rain soaked flags indeed! On 03 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: A colleague in Sweden has just sent me press clipping covering yesterday's Stockholm marathon, in which a runner collapsed with hypothermia and others affected by the sudden cold and rain. Snow was reported in southern Lapland. Perhaps they should rename it the LIA marathon! On 03 Jun 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote: Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by [rising now but DIVERTIBLE] cosmic rays Toshikazu Ebisuzaki, Hiroko Miyahara, Ryuho Kataoka, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966. AVERTABLE COOLING VOLCANIC CLOUDING cause all abrupt climatic change, as now, depending on sun-planet positions that control galactic electricity flow on Earth and volcano stimulation: As Pluto now is between Milky-way center and the Sun, it diverts galactic electricity to the planets, so Earth magma is stimulated (more lightnings too, on NH summer, when Earth is closer to the Milky-way center), as the Sun loses strength, and we see less sunspots since 2002 maximum. But as Earth is already stimulated, just a solar flare causes stronger quakes than when Sun is stronger and Earth less stimulated. On 03 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: MO claiming May was average but my records say 2c below average. MO claiming in Countryfile forecast that 5-8 June will be unsettled with rain at times. Any thoughts Piers? Appears to contradict your forecast so soon in the month. Time will tell but i hope the MO are wrong! On 03 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Russ---some interesting material and commentary on this on the Iceagenow website. On 03 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: interesting points Russ. It would appear too that the big eruptions at the end of the solar minimums, do not overcome the warming as solar activity rises again. On 02 Jun 2012, John wrote: The past 6 mo is like 1988 in upper midwest. No winter,warm dry spring followed by baking heat and high pressure. On 02 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Philippe...either seed or sow are correct as they mean the same thing in English..... AVERT... Lots of references to increased volcanism causing little ice ages..but what if it's the opposite? That the low (changed) solar activity causes not only a colder planet but also increased volcanism due to the sun's effect on the earth's magnetic field? A similar dialectic is that an increase in CO2 causes an increase in temperature or that increases in temperature cause increases in CO2. Only one can be correct due to cause and effect. I think that it is far more probable for the grand solar minimum to cause more and bigger quakes and eruptions than the probability that global cooling was coincidentally due to a big volcano going pop. Cause and effect, the big eruptions tend to occur toward the end of a solar minimum. Of course, the mainstream Ostriches refuse to believe that the sun plays any part, so will remain up to their necks in sand! On 02 Jun 2012, Summers of 1998 and 2000 wrote: I am writing this E-mail because the weather patterns seems to be similar to those years 1998 and 2000. Octobers of those two years were of the wettest on record. If the patterns remain the way they are now we will have to think of getting our wellies out in September for a possible October 2012 deluge. 1998 had a very wet June and we could be in for one this year if the patterns we have now carry on. On 02 Jun 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote: VOLCANISM RISE, but NO global plan for eventual volcanic winters: LET'S START A PLAN NOW!!! http://www.mediafire.com/view/?37yp537u1v3q0r3. Experts weigh supervolcano risks - Geologists have called for a taskforce to be set up to consider emergency management in the event of a massive volcanic eruption, or super-eruption: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4326987.stm. Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations: http://www.eos.ubc.ca/~mjelline/website212/rampino02.pdf On 01 Jun 2012, Russ wrote: Poor old Hudson. He believes that the only people who think that increased cloud cover reflects sunlight back into space and thereby causes net cooling are "climate sceptics"! I believe it's too late for Mr Hudson, who has gone way too far down the rabbit hole to ever make it back to sanity central again..... Neither can I understand why he thinks that the Arctic cooling quicker than the rest of the planet (which is warmer), is somehow unusual. Place 20 objects of differing temperatures in a sealed room at the same height, then monitor the temperature of the objects. I'll bet you the coldest object warms quickest! Remember Newton? Thermodynamics? Tell you another amazing thing Paul, the warmest object will actually cool until it's the same temperature as the air in the room, how good is that? Not a myth it's true... Amazing! He also admitted on the 21st May that the heatwave wouldn't last and that the last week of May would revert to unsettled weather. A bit wide of the mark Paul. On 01 Jun 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote: Volcano threatens millions in Mexico. LET'S AVERT next cannibalic volcanic winter, such those that destroyed cannibal Mayas, Aztecs, Incas!!!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DA7V412tQkE, http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?37yp537u1v3q0r3 On 01 Jun 2012, Philippe (Alsace) wrote: Hello anybody snow in the french alps the 1st of june above 600m and electric power shortage, a must to see: http://video.fr.msn.com/watch/video/neigeok1945-010611/13qhelxpi PS: in my last post it was to understand "plots to resow" and not "reseed"... On 01 Jun 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Quite an interesting ding dong on the Paul Hudson weather blog site on WA's May forecast. Some of the warmists are a bit irked----good! On 01 Jun 2012, Em wrote: I am part of a group holding Jubilee celebrations on Monday - we are interested in knowing whether it will be wet or dry. Over the past 20 hour period, for our location,the Met Office 5 day web forecast has alternated between rain and dry on each of the four occasions that I have looked - I watched this happen repeatedly last winter when I was monitoring the snow forecasts and I began to think it was a deliberate 'hedging their bets' strategy (so that, when they really didn't have a clue, they could increase the probability that a given proportion of people viewing their web-based forecasts, would be given the impression of a correct forecast - obviously this strategy fails for the few individuals who repeatedly recheck for a given day). Monitoring their shenanigans over the past day has confirmed my original thoughts that this apparent trickery is built into their forecasts. Congratulations once again to Piers for his fantastic May forecast. On 01 Jun 2012, Steve Devine wrote: OK, am bored of this muggy weather now. Bring on the rain and howling northerly gales from the North Sea! Then, I would like to order a mini-heatwave for next week so my kids won't get soaked in their week off school, then I don't care as I'm back to work. An unbelievable start to summer so far. After an average Feb, roasting March, washout April and mostly cold May - there's only one way to know what comes next...subscribe! (I've just seen the forecast - boring it isn't!!!) Let's see how SLAT8 pans out. Great presentation Piers! On 31 May 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote: Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by [rising now but DIVERTIBLE] cosmic rays Toshikazu Ebisuzaki, Hiroko Miyahara, Ryuho Kataoka, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966. AVERTABLE COOLING VOLCANIC CLOUDING cause all abrupt climatic change, as now, depending on sun-planet positions that contror galactic electricity flow on Earth and volcano stimulation: http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?37yp537u1v3q0r3 On 31 May 2012, Ian Ridpath wrote: John Planet says: “I have seen information on the website on the Earth's magnetic North Pole moving towards Siberia”. Actually it’s sneaking slightly further northwards through Canada towards the true geographic pole. What complicates matters is that there is more than one magnetic pole! The one we are interested in is the so-called geomagnetic pole, which is the pole of the Earth’s magnetosphere. It’s tilted about 10 degrees from the true poles of rotation, which is why aurorae appear further south in the US than they do in Europe. On 31 May 2012, John Planet wrote: I also have to say about Camberra which has had its coldest May for more than 50 years On 31 May 2012, John Planet wrote: LIA conditions affecting Perth Australia. http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/05/25/3511051.htm Coldest for 98 years. On 31 May 2012, John Planet wrote: I have seen information on the website on the Earth's magnetic North Pole moving towards Siberia about 40 years and the affect it is said to be having on the world weather and a claim that it is causing the US in particular to have warmer conditions in the recent winter. Is any truth in this? On 31 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Indeed Clive. It's worth a look at James Marusek's stuff on early climate records. It is clear that there were large and rapid variations including extreme heat, cold and giant hailstones. Some of the past comments on this in WA bulletins might be of interest too. On 31 May 2012, philippe (alsace) wrote: to CraigM: yes frost damage from the cold spell two first weeks of feb. were essentially observed in north east of France and concerned overall barley and wheat with locally 70% to 80% of plots to reseed. A pedologist friend of mine thinks that poor soil practice management is the first causal agent of damage, because of structural discontinuities in soil porosity and bad soil porosity which led to tear the roots. More south there were damages on spontaneous evergreen oaks and in vines (in the Rhone valley) with unhealthy, in poor soils established or bad managed plots more concerned (we observed that in alsace after the 2009 frost). Bye. On 31 May 2012, Clive wrote: I have been looking at the website http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm for the records around the LIA or Maunder Minimum. According to those records not every summer was cool and wet. There was one period 1651 to 1654 were four warm dry summers on a trot. So is it the case that we could still expect some nice summers even during a new Maunder Minimum period. On 31 May 2012, Steve Devine wrote: And so the month of May 2012 comes to a close and the final figures are in. Just beyond the boundaries of N London it has averaged 15.4C by day (or 12.5C May 1st - 21st), and 8.3C by night (or 6.8C May 1st - 21st). That is easily the coolest May since 2002 based on my own records and here we are on the roller-coaster into June with temperatures nose-diving and Piers' warnings of under-estmiated rainfall / hail / thunder / tornadoes should be heeded! All eyes on my "Forecasts" button for the June forecast out very soon! PS - Piers, please stop berating yourself for only getting 75% of May correct. That's all you promised us all along and you've produced SLAT 8 now! It's the MO who should be apologising for nowcasting and abandoning their long-range forecasts after all. Excellent work! On 31 May 2012, len holliday wrote: I'm the lead forecaster for a weather site that me and my son own. I have a graduate degree in Applied Mathematics and a under. grad. in Meteorology. I'm 51 years old and have studied the weather on a daily basis since I was 5 years old. And I am telling you; Piers Corbyn is the smartest weather forecaster in the world today! Period! On 31 May 2012, Craig M wrote: Have to say the warm spell has done my plants a world of good and makes you realise how the weather in April and May 'held back spring.' We also got off lightly this winter. From the BBC "Our rape crops are in extremely good condition. Other places like Germany, Poland and Ukraine have had a dreadful winter, the crops were exposed to severe cold temperatures, I suspect the French suffered as well...oilseed rape has probably been more visible this year because it has flowered for almost twice its normal length of time - eight weeks, instead of four - as a cold and wet April and May stopped flowers developing and dying at their normal rate." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18249840 +++Regarding Greenland, interesting read on Greenland Glaciers: “Unprecedented Retreat” Similar to 1930′s warming http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/greenland-glaciers-unprecedented-retreat-similar-to-1930s-warming/ On 30 May 2012, Philippe (Alsace) wrote: Some news from France: on sunday 27th. in south of FRance in the Var department 6000 ha vineyards completely or almost compl destroyed by a hail storm: " hailstones like marbles, it was like snow" says some whitness. see: http://www.varmatin.com/article/home-page/grele-sur-le-centre-var-photos-et-videos-des-internautes.874359.html ; http://www.varmatin.com/article/brignoles/centre-var-apres-la-grele-lheure-des-constats.874802.html ; http://www.franceinfo.fr/environnement/6-000-hectares-de-vignes-detruits-par-la-grele-dans-le-var-629179-2012-05-28; here in Alsace, always a threat of thunder but happily no hail or damaging storm On 30 May 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote: What can be said with certainty is that if this is to be an LIA, then scientists will have a veritable treasure trove of data supplied on all kinds of things: 1. Solar output. 2. Satellite imagery of ice and snow extent. 3. Global temperature coverave. 4. Oceanic patterns. 5. Jet stream patterns. 6. Snowfall patterns. Should allow a lot of theories to be shot down or survive to fight another LIA in a few centuries I guess...... On 30 May 2012, Paul wrote: Alot of people are expecting long cold winters, every winter but during the LIA there were some mild winters with a lack of snow and frost. The cold weather was probably more out to the east and west with uk and europe in between with warm air. I On 30 May 2012, Russ wrote: Have you noticed the almost complete lack of contrails over the past week while we've had wall to wall blue skies? How very odd! I remember last spring's warm dry spell and how the wall to wall blue sky was laden with hundreds of thick contrails all the time. Lowered the sun's intensity to such a degree that very few locals got sun burn, unlike this last week when half the local teenagers look as though they've been the victims of a flamethrower incident! The jets are there, they just seem to be flying much higher than usual. I can usually name the jet type as they fly over but this past week they have been unidentifiable with the naked eye. On 30 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote: Well there you are. We now have SLAT8, because of an understood need to better define and refine in face of new information. All we are going to get from the CO2 is more of the same drivel. Rapid changes!? From the 21st of May in Scotland we went from day maxima of 7-8C to 27-29C and today its back to single figures in north-east Scotland. I also noted snow symbols posted on the southern Norwegian hills. This LIA stuff ain't dome with us yet.