Comments from Piers
WeatherAction
Going to parts other forecasters cannot reach
 
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR +44(0)207939 9946 From Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320 piers@weatheraction.com  www.weatheraction.com Twitter address Piers_Corbyn
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  • FANTASTIC DIAMOND JUBILEE CELEBRATIONS FORECAST OFFER  Subscribe now - below - for JUNE 30d or 45d forecast Brit + Ire forecasts and you get a special extra page of detailed forecasts for 2-5th June Jubilee weather NOW at NO extra charge.  Piers said "We made this available more than two weeks ahead of the events to fill the breach left by the Met Office's inability to make such detailed forecasts 2 weeks ahead"  
  • JUNE B+I 15-45day forecast is very interesting. Piers said "The forecast error in BI 22-25th May period is NOT leading to much revision of June because it appears the final section of May 26-31st is reverting towards original forecast 
Contents: 
1) News as it comes with newest first. 2) Feature of this Post. 3) Reader Comments

1) News as it comes - newest first

=> Piers deals with detractors and catches one making-up falsities & criticizing forecasts he hasn't read! http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9685#post_comments 

=> WeatherAction issued MUST-HAVE Jubilee forecast 2 weeks ahead. Is Met O just ambiguous or following WeatherAction?  http://climaterealists.com/9700  
I have just been phoned by Louise Gray of Telegraph who asked for our Jubilee weekend forecast. I refused to tell her because she, at the end of April made inaccurate and gratuitously damaging comments about our forecasts in general and specifically about May which despite her suggestions and innuendo did turn very cold in early May and onwards (to May 21st). 

=> Simultaneous extreme events across world Confirm WeatherAction R5 top hit 23-25th including Quakes, tornadoes, powering-up of Hurricane+Typhoon; See COMM and links http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9680
New information of tornadoes in Quebec!!! 25th marking R5 period 23-25th confirming Weatheraction general NE USA/SE Canada forecast warning of tornadoes 23-25th 
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/quebec-tornadoes-confirmed-1/65720

=> USA Severe thunderstorms 28th May Great Lakes / NE and weather map well confirm WeatherAction USA maps forecast issued 30 April http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/memorial-day-storms-albany-to/65721 pic http://bit.ly/KXlzIz  USA 28th May confirms WeatherAction Long Range forecast detail issued end April
- Severe Storms 28 May Slam Chicago, St. Louis, Springfield also confirming WeatherAction long range fcst issued end April  http://bit.ly/KXf1wS

26May. Solar note. No large Coronal hole on 24th but interesting dark/light feature on central meridian of sun http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=05&day=24&year=2012&view=view
Then 'crackling' sunspot starts to come around left limb 26th from opp side of sun  http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=05&day=26&year=2012&view=view

WeatherAction regular monthly open meeting 
(Friday 25th May 12noon WeatherAction Office Delta House 
for 12.30 John Harvard Library, Borough Rd.) was very useful. 
Report will be posted
{Items included 1) May 2012  a) The Very cold Central/East Britain for first 3 weeks May as forecast and other   extremes in USA and Europe (warm in East) also confirming long range forecast
b) The change on 21/22nd May in Britain while USA stuck to forecast and what it means.
2) The nature of Little Ice Age type weather
- as talked about on Vid and USA radio interview - below
3) The Diamond Jubilee and June (Jubilee events forecast 2-5 June included with subscriptions to 30d & 45d BI forecasts, available now - ahead of normal for 30d via http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp
4) A variety of recent summer Forecasts ( or 'forecasts') in newspapers.  
 
(Wed 23 May) Special News on R5 WARNING - solar driven storm & quake-Volcano events coming 23-25 May: pdfs http://bit.ly/KfWn0y (on CR) or http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No25.pdf 

1c) REPORT ON R5 Period 23-25th May as it comes...

Events unfolded very much confirming the specific and general details of the R5 forecast around the world except the pressure patterns of NW Europe deviated form long range forecast. 
The USA pressure maps continued as long range forecasts while the BI+West Europe departed from forecast giving a B+I hot spell primarily due to Scandinavian High. See also reader comments below. This important period and deviation to be reported in more detail.

Sequence of Key events in UTC
23rd 03-06z Geomagnetic Activity reached K5. This was NOT expected (only 20% likely) from 5 hours ahead on http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=05&day=22&year=2012&view=view
23rd 15:02z M6.0 Quake Japan
24th ~22:00-23:00 USA midwest v severe thunderstorms with giant hail & 'greatest potential for tornadoes in recent weeks' Tornadoes reported Nebraska, Wisconsin 
24th 22:48z M6.3 Quake Norway/Greenland Sea
25th ~00z Typhoon West pacific Sanvu UPGRADED to Cat2
25th ~00z East Pacific BUD (which formed 22nd) becomes H3 (FIRST Hurricane level of season)
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-storm-brewing-in-the-easte/65422
NOTICE how on 24th ALL these Tornado, quake and Typhoon / hurricane events took place pretty well simultaneously - within about 2 hours - yet were in different parts of the world. 

26th 03GMT BERYL reached TS status just 3 hrs outside 23-25th WeatherAction R5 warning - inside +/- half day range

1d) The R5 of 23-25 May follows hard on the R4 19-21st (and QV 18-20th) WA12No24 - http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No24.pdf 


2) Have weather patterns reverted to normal? "NO" Says Piers:

"The Express Tue 22 May. carried a Hot Summer to Break new Records  - http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/321682/Red-hot-summer-to-break-records - article without this time allowing comment. Without stating anything about our WeatherAction forecast I would say such a claim is baseless misleading delusional nonsense from people who have no track record of skill (or have a record of the opposite of skill). One part says:

According to Weather Services International, a "pressure blocking” system which caused recent summers to be cool and wet has now moved away. Chief meteorologist Dr Todd Crawford said: "The past four summers have been fairly wet and cool across the UK. This was driven by extreme levels of North Atlantic pressure blocking, as seen in summers 2007-11, but that pattern has now seemingly ended.

I suggest Its time for a reality check for WSI and all. Just look at the Pressure chart for 3 days away http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg - Even if only roughly right THAT still has a main track of Lows way to the South of normal - 'forced down' now by a firm Scandinavian High - continuing this type of pattern in our long range Euromaps pressure patterns. Of course things may eventually change but have WSI, Netweather (yes the ones who had so much to say against our overall May forecast and went very quiet as it turned cold) and others ANY basis for their summer claim? 
Recall the past 5 summers were correctly forecasted by WeatherAction and (VERY) incorrectly forecast by the UKMO and others. No 'Long range' forecasts should be published without reference to past skill and on that only WeatherAction has proven significant skill and all others have zero or negative skill or no record to check. The UKMO, Netweather, WSI etc LONG range 'forecasts' are misleading entertainment not science, and should be disregarded absolutely "

"For the summer WeatherAction will be working closely with ClimateRealists.com to record and  monitor the various summer forecasts and claims appearing.

CR Report1 on Summer Forecasts on Offer: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9672
- Weather services International
- Johnathan Powell ' Vantage weather'
- Netweather
- Exacta Weather

Piers said "An important point to understand is that the UKMO and their fellow travelers are certain on average to overstate warmth since their models are back-tested using the fraudulent warmed-up 'data' of the Climate Research Unit of the 'University' of East Anglia - for discussion on this see: 
Great VIDEO - What Doesn't & Does cause Climate Change - Kent Freedom Movement host Piers Corbyn WeatherAction http://ning.it/IRDqCk on 12.04.12
The reason why some media repeat weather stuff that they know has no value is to create an illusion of warmth as part of the CO2 warmist cult since most people remember forecasts as much as or more than actual weather. This works on short and long time scales. For example The BBC was going on for some days that Monday 21 May in London "would reach ~23C". They changed to 19C about 8 hours ahead. In fact Heathrow (London Official station) reached 17.5C. Was that reported at all let alone with fanfare?


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LONGER AHEAD FORECASTS up to 12 months ahead are available via WeatherAction Office piers@weatheraction.com


3) READER COMMENTS AND FEEDBACK BELOW

Fighting the McWarmistas...Latest news from Ron Greer (24May):
(posted here rather than in usual place below because of the importance of taking the fight to the enemy)
Do you know guys, gutless MacWarmist trolls in Scotland are sneaky peeking this site, but not daring to make any comment in case it blows their monikers. ( Fred Bloggs, Slioch)They are still rankled but don't have the courage of their own convictions, unlike Weatheraction which takes it on the chin and sticks to its guns. They got off the hook from the 22nd, but they know Piers was basically correct.
Comments submitted - 48 Add your comment
On 17 Jul 2012, Adam wrote:

the characters are milany wishing everyone a prosperous year of the dragon prosperity means a lot in the traditional greetings of the chinese.the last pic is actually a lion dance. a dragon dance would be much, much longer in length and require more performers.
On 09 Jun 2012, rozza wrote:

I'm not sure why you've got so obssessed about Greenland on here. But worth mentioning that on Greenland.com it states: "Lots of the same land that the Viking settlers originally cultivated is today occupied by enterprising sheep farmers and other farmers who offer guests overnight accommodation on the banks of deep fjords and or on grassy mountain slopes." I can't put a figure on "lots" but it suggests that there hasn't been so dramatic a change as all that. Also one off the wiki sources for the 'spin doctor' theory in=s a book published in 1880. Hardly a recent development unless you mean geologically.
On 30 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

Thanks All --- JOHN PLANET Yes circulations do change a lot. Lamb's circulation classifications tell a lot. --- CRAIG M Yes Elim sets out to deceive, distort and misrepresent, I shouldn't have really let that comment through below because it is deceitful. He refers to CET but we never issued a forecast for CET. We referred to East (espec NE) and central rather than West and that was about Britain (rather than Ireland) NOT England. Deviations from normal in East & NE parts were colder than elsewhere I have been informed. In Scotland there were some of the COLDEST ON RECORD TEMPS. The important thing about the May forecast was the geographical detail in general and for the first 6 weather periods. For farmers and gardeners we gave fantastic advice. The cold ended early but 'So What' as the farmer would say in this case. The damage was done to growth and no-one else even suggested it could be as cold as it was. The hot bit we missed was important though - see SLAT8 in next posting.
On 30 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Elim has been sniping at Piers for a while on CR along with Tom Richards. They seem to all be friends although the suspicion is they are one & the same. The dataset is collected by Phil Eden (which I should have attributed) - link below. What Elim won't tell you is he was happy to use this dataset to try and snipe at Piers by comparing a quote regarding for the first 7days of May being coldest in 300 years (by the Metro newspaper not Piers) with the first 10days. Then he switched to the Met Office dataset. I refer to both but use Eden as he has an excellent site. The MetO I prefer to download at the end of the month. He continues to deliberately misrepresent anything he doesn't like. If he wished to engage that's fine but it's like a point scoring against Piers. http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/201205.htm
On 30 May 2012, Lorraine Lister wrote:

The following backs up what Piers said about the naming of Greenland: "In 982 he (Erik the Red) was sentenced to exile from Iceland for three years for murder. It is for this reason that in the same year he sailed west and discovered a country with an inviting fjord landscape and fertile green valleys. He was extremely impressed with the new country's resources and he returned to Iceland to spread the word of "The green land". Taken from www.greenland.com the official tourist site of Greenland.
On 29 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

ALL! Brill stuff you are writing here. Little Ice Age comments especially important and helping clarify SLAT8. --- MATT & RICHARDT A point about Greenland. I DO NOT BELIEVE that Wikipedia claim that Eric The Red chose that name "in order to attract people to live there". Anything to do with climate on Wikipedia was and I think still is a total mutilation of reality by delusional warmists. [They for example kept inserting lies into my "autobiog", although I never wrote it, only tried to put it right often to find lies re-inserted within hours]. The Eric the Red, first man of spin, story is I think just deceitful spin from the warmists to - yes you guessed it - HIDE the (early) Medieval warm period. It implies Greenland wasn't really Green, mild and farm-able. When I was a youth I knew why Greenland was so named - because it was farmable-Green - and milder than now. The Eric the Red spin story ONLY came in recent years. Would someone check those refs for Himalya-gate-isms?
On 29 May 2012, Richard .t wrote:

The name Greenland comes from the early Scandinavian settlers. In the Icelandic sagas, it is said that Norwegian-born Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find a land rumored to lie to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grśnland ("Greenland"), supposedly in the hope that the pleasant name would attract settlers.[11][12][13] Looks like we are heading back to cooling down to finish may off!!
On 29 May 2012, matt wrote:

When debating about climate change with freinds and family. I ask a simple question. How did Greenland get its name? Try it the next time your in debate. Its amazing the rubbish people answer your question with. I just sit back with a smile on my face.
On 29 May 2012, John Planet wrote:

Hi Piers. Here a question. We have throughout much of 20th and early part of 21st century had south westerlies has the most common wind to blow in the UK. Has there been a time in the past when another wind direction was more common in the UK?
On 29 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

further... In my job I get to talk to lots of people and it's always interesting how a pattern that exists for a few years (as patterns often do) seems to become the 'norm' in their eyes. The wet in April and the heatwave the past week being two such examples which are anything but unprecedented. I was fascinated by the weather in this country from an early age having lived abroad in a tropical climate. I was easily duped by the CO2 theory as in my lifetime I saw a change in the patterns I was observing & snow becoming far less (in London anyway). However I recall elder relatives talking of 30/60/100y cycles of weather - knowledge passed down for generations. Now in my job I speak to many people with far more experience of the climate than me & it's refreshing to hear people who lived through 47/63 winters take the recent cold spells seen in SC24 in their stride. They coped then, we can cope now.
On 29 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Ron v. good point. Most of us recall the superheat in 2003, the wet summers of the past few years (which had some nice spells that were quickly forgotten), the deep cold winter spells. The notion of British white Christmases is often attributed to Dickens who was portraying the LIA patterns. Wuthering Heights also seems to have sudden violent storms which I recall reading in my younger days & had a disconnect with the fairly benign weather of the past 30yrs. Not to mention the 18/19thC history I did with the repeated crop failures. A good example I suppose would be trying to recall Jan 2012 weather (bar the storms at beginning of month) - compared to the fluctuations/extremes of other months it's easy to forget. Looking at CET & local recordings it's funny how the easy it is to forget most of the weather we experience....
On 29 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:

Criaig, The LIA type ups and downs have been recorded for posterity and we have wriiten accounts of the large scale variation of extremes, presumably because they were just so awful. We'll never know what the smaller scale and shorter temporal variations were because no doubt in the great big scheme of things, the kind of variations we have experienced this month?( eg record maxima in Northwest Scotland at the end of May, following record mimima iin Southwest Scotland at the start) would have been 'diddly squat' by comparison. If we see a continuation and intensification of this variability it will be perhaps a good index of what is in store in larger doses.
On 29 May 2012, david wrote:

What I want to know is, when are you going to start reverse engineering the weather and offering a range of packages? "mediterranean summer" - that would be a popular one I would have thought. Then there's the "guaranteed bank holiday sunshine" and "guaranteed White Christmas" packages. The "oh dear is it raining on the Australian cricket team" package, not to mention offering her Majesty guaranteed nice weather for when she takes the pram out for a ride down Pall Mall - the possibilities are endless. You could be a rich man.
On 29 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Some temps taken from the BBC for Friday, to give an idea of the drop in temps (max/min). Newcastle 12/7, Norwich 13/7, Leeds 15/7, Liverpool & London 17/9, Exeter & Cardiff 19/12, Glasgow 16/8, Edinburgh 13/6 Notable in this is the East/West split and coastal areas will be lower with some areas in the North East on Tuesday struggling to get into double figures. Bear in mind temps above are for urban areas which are nearly always higher than more rural areas. A frost is certainly possible with clear skies, low wind & if you are in a frost pocket and the further North you are. It's going to be a shock to the system but at least fresher and some rain (don't knock it - unless you get the deluges), often thundery in places. @Clive if you add the super cold two weeks in Feb (although not enough snow for me) & the warm Autumn then it has been a very interesting 9 months of weather. Question is what next? More massive ups & downs?
On 29 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Met Office precipitation forecast for June-August "SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION: For UK-average rainfall, the forecast for this summer is very uncertain, due to a lack of any strong driving factors. Although there is a somewhat elevated chance, relative to climatology, of the summer being wet, it looks unlikely that there will be very wet conditions. However, the probability of very dry conditions remains close to climatology. The probability that UK-average rainfall for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25-30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/e/A3-plots-precip-JJA.pdf
On 28 May 2012, Elim wrote:

@CraigM Up until the 7th we were in the first week of May, the average CET at this point is 9.8C. The 2012 CET was at 8.6C. Cold yes, but nowhere near the level of the 'coldest Mays.' By the 21st of May the CET was running at 1C below average, this is not in the coldest 5%. If you look at this diagram http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif You can see that the CET for May has stayed within the 5th/95th percentile boundaries until it recently popped out of the warm end. At no time has it ever been near the Lowest in Record Line.
On 28 May 2012, Clive wrote:

I do think the weather patterns are in a very complicated mood and has been that way for the last nine months. This may cause a headache for this summer coming up for even the best forecasters. Last spring 2011 was more straight forward a very warm April similar to that of 2007 followed by a cool and very wet summer. This year had a very warm March, very cold wet April and a very cold May for the first three weeks following by an out of the blue heatwave. The latest weather patterns on the BBC website I have seen are arranged for a cool unsettled start to June but do not have any idea what would happen after that.
On 28 May 2012, Andy B wrote:

Here is an interesting video posted on I Love CO2 https://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/I-love-CO2/302284603129264 It shows more evidence against CO2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm0rWtnXWeU&feature=relmfu
On 28 May 2012, Steve Devine wrote:

Provisional May figures coming in now from my own personal records at home just north of London. If the expected thundery breakdown to cooler temperatures happens over the last few days of May then it will be... Av Day Temp = 15.3C, Av Night Temp = 8.1C. Definately at least the coolest May since I began recording in 2002. Coldest in 100 years? Will have to wait and see. Now, all eyes on the Jubilee Weekend and WA's June forecast!
On 28 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:

Craig: lots of interesting thoughts and observations there. Colder air coming in over warm land--wonder how big the hailstones might be? Aye indeed the lack of honesty of the detractors over their mistakes is a disgrace, but sadly typical.
On 28 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Wee fact for the detractors === Up until 7th we were at the level of the COLDEST May, whilst up until 21st, this May was in the COLDEST 5% in CET === I say this as many deluded individuals have been trying to take pot shots at Piers and claiming Met/GFS/ECMWF etc success? They did not predict the serious cold and laughed at Piers. They have now said they 'predicted the cold start' but they only said cold after May had already begun! It was all due to be okay by mid month as well! Piers called the cold in mid April, weeks before they followed. The Met forecasts are archived in previous threads and I didn't see snow - nor did they predict this heatwave! Piers said his forecast went wrong for the last 1/4 - hear the others say they got it wrong? Ever? @Ron, yes I've heard the 47/63 synoptics mentioned but would need to look at some pressure maps to see how they compare . Without a doubt had we got the same in winter it would have been freezing & snowy as hell early on!
On 28 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

After predicting the heat to continue the models have now picked up a major change back to cool conditions+poss frost forecast on the GFS (but dismissed as unlikely). Surprisingly all three main models seem to agree on this change back to cooler conditions. There are some days that will struggle to reach much into double figures as the polar air heads back over us again. The heat has been 'record' in some areas but despite reaching 28C on the 23rd here it's some way short of the 32C reached on 24th May 2009 (less also than the 29C on 1st & 2nd October 2011!). When the heat does breakdown this could lead to some spectacular thunderstorms/hail especially if this happens in an R period. I really could do with some rain as I am fed up of this heat making simple jobs unbearable! This could be a very interesting summer for weather.
On 28 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

cont... UK forecast - Day 16 to 30 UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jun 2012 to Monday 25 Jun 2012: Indications are that most areas will be rather changeable with periods of showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. There are some signs that southern areas may see more in the way of unsettled conditions, especially from the middle of June. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above the seasonal average, but perhaps cooler in the south. Issued at: 1546 on Sun 27 May 2012 http://bit.ly/H9gagF
On 28 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Note the 'close to average' refrain which seems to be in every Met Office forecast these days! Sticking their necks out for the main UK*? Met forecast retrieved 28/05/12 @2AM; "UK Outlook for Friday 1 Jun 2012 to Sunday 10 Jun 2012: Mainly dry and bright for the Jubilee bank holiday weekend across many parts, however the south and east is likely to be rather cloudy at times with a chance of some light showers, especially at first. Mainly light winds are expected, but eastern coasts are likely to see a fresh and cool northerly breeze. There is also a chance of more unsettled weather affecting the west and northwest of the UK by the end of the weekend. There are indications that these changeable conditions will probably spread to most areas by the end of the period. Temperatures are likely to be close to average but feeling rather warm in any sunny spells, with *sunnier western areas most likely to see above average temperatures."
On 26 May 2012, Russ wrote:

100% correct for three weeks out of four is good enough for me. Better than any other long range forecast out there by miles....... This is perfect weather for me, wall to wall blue sky and a chilly easterly keeping things comfortable. No contrails either...tis bliss!
On 26 May 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote:

STILL VOLCANIC ORIGIN clouding-SNOWING in N. America... Since their appearance after continuous volcanic winters caused the relatively recent origin of wars ~6.500 years ago (saharasia.org), fearful egomaniac warmongers blacklist all insubordinate peoples, as now, in view of the AVERTIBLE* next volcanic ice-age. But, ALL deforestating feardoms fighting collective facing of volcanic seasons COLLAPSED (faraos, Romans, Mayas, Aztecs, Incas etc etc), while we can AVERT both cooling and cannibalism: http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?37yp537u1v3q0r3
On 26 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:

Struck me that if this synpotic scenario was in Jan-Feb, we'd be having a very cold spell indeed. Then it struck me that this looks like the pattern of the winter of 1963( which I can remember) and possibly the winter and parts of the summer of 1947, which was before my time. Thoughts guys?
On 25 May 2012, Lorraine wrote:

There is an easterly wind blowing here so the sun may be warm but there is still this element of.cool, doubt that perhaps rain may return with an easterly wind temperatures could drop. Weather seems to be hotter in the city of London. it topped about 20 degrees here with the wind it probably seems normal May weather at last, I live in the Channel Islands What is the phrase 'don't caste a clout till May is out'
On 25 May 2012, James M wrote:

Further Confirmation of your WANews12No25 from Australia on 24 May: " Melbourne is being lashed by heavy rains and damaging winds of up to 100kph are forecast, as a severe weather system moves across the state. The weather bureau says up to a month's worth of rain could fall in the next 24 hours."
On 24 May 2012, Russ wrote:

Did 130 miles today all around SW Yorkshire, Holmfirth, Halifax, Rochdale, Oldham, Glossop and every reservoir I saw was full to the brim. The top reservoir at Derwent Valley the Howden Dam was still overflowing copious amounts yesterday.....
On 24 May 2012, Gareth wrote:

Evening Piers BBC story claims warmth likely to last into next week, but that's the first line and then just reporting on the warmth around the UK, no justification or references at all! (Just the usual "No seasonal forecast" comment from the MET, right at the end) ***http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18197613*** Shame about your forecast diverging over the weekend, it almost looks as if the weather system has drifted a lot further west that predicted (double low over UK in prediction, double low out west in the Atlantic). Is that the case or is it a coincidence? Cheers G
On 24 May 2012, James M wrote:

Confirmation of your WANews12No25 from Australia on 24 May: "Much of South Australia and New South Wales have been dealt one of its coldest May days on record with help from extensive cloud and rain. Temperatures have stayed as much as 10 degrees below average, eight-to-13 degrees colder than yesterday. Many centres have been within a degree-or-so of their May record low maximum."
On 24 May 2012, Michael Hurley wrote:

Dear Piers, Can you explain why the forecast for past week from Sunday May 20th towards Sunday May 27th does not qiute match up to your forecast for this period.I am attending a wedding this Saturday and was originally pleased that you forecast cool weather as I wilt in the British hot weather and now expect temperatures around 25C.When is the temp.likely to fall back?
On 24 May 2012, AVERT volcanic winter-next ice age wrote:

Japan is ALL RADIOGENOCIDING now! (http://www.fairewinds.com/content/tokyo-soil-samples-would-be-considered-nuclear-waste-us). HELP AVERT Fukushima world-killing explosion! http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?37yp537u1v3q0r3
On 24 May 2012, steve wrote:

so.... this wasnt a 2 day wimper then? its still shining 4 days in and looks that way also tommorow and saturday>?..
On 24 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

THANKS CRAIG V useful. Yes you are right about the winter-summer weather type switches in just two days. That is generally a consequence of large amplitude swings in jet stream. Arctic air in UK one day and Med air the next. However in this case the warm air had a more circuitous - fortuitous for MO - route which they didn't see until it was upon us and definitely invisible to their 6+ day ahead computer models. Spending more on computers would just enable them to get wrong answers quicker and flip flop more between extremes as we get into more LIA type weather. In fact the public would experience WORSE forecasts for MORE money. Will discuss these events at WeatherAction meeting Friday - see note above - and report here. Piers
On 24 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Piers - the 'cold' you predicted lasted over a month as it started in late Apr. Is forecast 'early'? i.e. v strong 2/3, then 1/3 deviates - almost an opposite swing? (note time of change was still correct) Are new LIA type swings in UK 'quicker' than SLAT had expected? When heat changes worth watching to confirm May timings still correct + Could more alt scenario be given for advice only? Whilst this heat is not unheard of for time of yr (strong sun makes it likely if conditions are favourable) the turn around from the prolonged cold was noticeable. Yet, swings are not unheard of - e.g. 1976 from cold to v warm in a similar seasonal period, so don't make the mistake of thinking this is a taster of summer, as Mar was no taster of spring. USA forecast going very well with a cold trough for the R5 period whilst the last R4 period included "The equivalent of up to six weeks' rain fell in three hours on Nancy and the surrounding area on Monday night." http://bbc.in/LnSQuB
On 23 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

The heatwave wasn't predicted until the very last moment by forecasters, however after being very strong on a continuation yesterday a change seems afoot again to cooler/wetter conditions - when is the question for the models. The first 20 days were a fantastic forecast. Consider how Piers was slated in mid April when the forecast was announced. This is the CET scores 1-10 May 9.7 (-2C), 11-20 May 9.3(-2.4C). Regionally until the 21st EVERY area was below average;. E Scot -1.8C, N+Cent Scot -2.1C, NE Eng -1.8C, NW Eng -1.7C, N Ire -1.9C, Ireland -1.5C, Midlands -1.3C, SE -0.9C, SW -0.8C. Current CET according to the Met Office stands at 10C (-0.9C). However, pay attention to the regional figures - Piers did not predict a top 5 for the ++whole++ of England. ( All figures from Philip Eden site; http://bit.ly/JVOTBu ) That was an unusual bit of weather to say the least. I preferred it to this heat!
On 23 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

AND a 7th point - lucky 7! 7) The weather is given by circulation patterns - that is changes in the Jet stream - which are generally predictable from solar activity and lunar modulation. CO2 has no effect on the Jet stream or anything and has no forecasting power whatsoever. They should give up the CO2 'theory' and resign from any of their jobs which depend on it.
On 23 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

THANKS ALL! More on the warmed up bit of May above but RON Give them hell! Hit the warmistas in every sentence: 1) The month was just as we said for three weeks while they were wrong or had nothing to say. 2) ALL the damage to planting and gardening we warned of took place. While they had the opposite or nothing to offer. Our forecast helped farmers & gardeners while theirs mislead growers and caused financial loss to any who followed them. 3) We said it would be coldest in the east and milder in the West which it was and still is, while they didn't have a clue. 4) Overall the forecast will probably be 85% right - which is our normal success rate; and theirs, since they had no detail - 0% for accuracy (wrong side of normal) & minus 100% for wrong advice. 5) In terms of timing we had less cold/milder bits 13/14th, 22nd(which might be the warmest day) & 27/28th, while they had nothing to say. 6) They should be ashamed for not listening. *Maybe 27/28th came 'early' being looked into).
On 23 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:

Rob, Yes it's a pity that things went pear-shaped a couple of days ago when the first 3 weeks were so accurate. The MacWarmists are trying to get their own back at me after the ribbing I gave them. I'd do the same if the roles had been reversed. Piers gave a % llikleyhood, not a guarantee and we'll never be able to compare it with the M0/Beeb longrange prediction as they didn't give one. One thing we can be sure of is that the sudden change was not due to CO2 levels. You can bet your boots that Piers will be carrying out a rigorous investigation into the cause of the rapid change.
On 23 May 2012, Rob wrote:

Piers, will you be able to work out why May has suddenly got very warm across the UK and no longerfollowing your forecast which was spot on up to the 20th. Is it due to the muddled state of the sun that you have mentioned previously??
On 23 May 2012, John Planet wrote:

There is statement in the Express "Summers like that of 2002 to 2006. Were they all hot and sunny then. What about that really awful summer of 2004. None of those summers were good right through. 2002 was mostly dull and wet. Junes of 2003 and 2005 were not up to standard. Apart for short lived heatwaves July's was not that brilliant ever. The record temperatures of 2003 came through a short lived record scorcher in the South East August. 2006 August was a complete washout. There were better summers in the 80s and 90s. 1984, 1989 and 1995 were the better summers in terms of being warm and dry right through. I did not think the summers between 2002 and 2006 were that good. I seen better in the past.
On 23 May 2012, M Lewis wrote:

Piers, is this blip of warm sunny weather caused by a "col" over the UK which has formed between High Pressure area to the north and High Pressure area to the south? Will air mass become unstable and lead to violent thunder storms?
On 23 May 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Can you put a weblink to your survey with Climate Realists on this post? Even on the front page of your website? Might be interesting to be able to follow what gives through a simple clickthru?
On 23 May 2012, John Planet wrote:

What do they mean patterns reverting to normal. I through that the hot summers are produced by patterns that are not the usual normal pattern for the UK. I was told that the normal pattern for the UK was the unsettled westerly pattern with a ridge of high pressure coming from the Azores from time to time. The patterns of 1976 and 1995 for example were often considered to be unusual for the UK. 1995 summer was often governed by highs to the north of the UK pulling warm air from the continent.
On 22 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:

I was fishing on Loch Laggan today and noted the WESTERLY winds with high cloud cover and much more snowpack in the Mamores and Cairngorms than last year. The warmists will be praying that this sudden warm spell willl undo the otherwise spot on outcome of Piers' prediction for May.---One Swallow does not make a Bar B Q.
On 22 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

Been some interesting movement of the air masses about us. This heat is a period of change and it's noticeable because of how late in the year we are. From day to day this last week I have felt the cold and warm air masses move back and forth. I have had below average rainfall despite the rain in many parts of the country. Sunshine has been at a premium so I 'make hay while the sun shines.' The folklore of this country is never that far off the truth - it's based in observation not computer models. It's based on growing plants in the temperamental climate of the UK for centuries. When you hit a fairly benign warm patch use it well because it won't last.