On 06 Jun 2012, Aditya wrote:
It's not like you can draw a hard line between sun spot cycels, the tail end of one overlaps the beginning of its successor.Early next year is when they expect Cycle 24 to reach significant levels of activity, that's when we'll really find out if Cycle 24 is as predict, or wimpy.It could be very amusing watching the GW crowd trying to explain a cold spell that doesn't correlate with any of their explanations.
On 05 May 2012, Malcolm wrote:
Finally Piers gets a mention in this article today in the express, but only a brief sentence.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/318254/Winter-to-last-until-June
I think he should get more recognition for his sterling work and the fact that he has been saying about the COLD MAY for far longer than all the others who change their NOWcasts by the minute and then give the impression they were the ones who first forecast a cold May and get the recognition via the media. PIERS CORBYN FORECAST A COLD MAY FIRST!! NOT THE MET OFFICE!! or any other LIERS or CO2 WARMISTS who will steep so low as to try and convince people they were right when they were NOT!!
Excellent work as always Piers and just hope this year causes the CO2 WARMISTS to COOL DOWN :-) and shut up with their utter drivel!!
On 05 May 2012, Russ wrote:
John Badrick..... Muddled weather, not knowing whether to be cold, warm or hot? That will suit the Met Office style of forecasting perfectly... ARCHETYPAL MET FORECAST... Tomorrow should be mainly dry with some scattered showers, often confined to high ground where occasional hail or sleet may be possible, much needed after 12 months of drought. It may feel warm in the sun but less warm out of the sun. It will generally feel warmer and temperatures will remain higher than the **seasonal average. Later in the day heavy, warm rain will push in from the west with up to 9 inches for most of the SW & Wales. 234 flood alerts have been issued but a water company spokesman said earlier, "This will not help the past 18 months of drought". Overnight we may see the odd spot or two of rain in the south and the odd flake of snow in the north but remaining very warm. Outlook: much warmer and changeable with the 24 months of drought continuing.
**take lots of random numbers and average them.
On 04 May 2012, John badrick wrote:
I hope Piers is right this time....I got a feeling things are going to turn a hell of a lot colder, but not dramaticly until after solar max, very harsh winters starting around 2015 before then this 10-15 degrees, inbetween weatherwill be the norm, inbetween, muddle weather a sign of a change when the weather cant make up its mind, will it be cold, mild or hot? Trying to change from warm to very cold in a short period......
On 04 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL Exciting times we are in! Watch it all closely. We are entering often different circulations and a lot of assumptions will not work and standard models will run into trouble and as has been noticed will not know what to do. No weather alerts is barmy; denial of reality is their mode now and that means more loony attacks as we see --- In 1996 there was snow on the South Downs. See actual forecast for possibilities this time but note 1996 was different in a lot of ways 16yrs is not Hale etc. Standard Met is floundering big time. Hail might be an interesting feature in addition to cold, should watch carefully --- DAWN NICK re Ice ages ending first in SH, Milankovich perihelion is over-rated because heat delivered in any sector of earth's orbit is Time in sector/r^2 but time in sector is T = r^2 x angle and the r^2 cancel out. I might be the physical asymmetry as Nic mentioned however note the obliquity(Tilt) x precession driver/trigger of ice ages must be magnetic. P
On 04 May 2012, Dawn wrote:
Currently (04/05/2012 10.20pm) cold at 1degC with frequent snow showers.
The next 3 days at least..according to MetO say much of the same.
Thanks Piers for the early warning.
On 04 May 2012, Dawn wrote:
Reply to Nick Stoneman....
Milankovich Cycle may explain why oceans in the southern hemisphere warmed faster or were warmer overall. Presently in winter the Southern Hemisphere is further to the sun and in summer nearer (You'll need to do some checking to see at which tilt angle the earth was during the last couple of ice-ages). Also Oceans stay warmer than land masses. For example... Siberia had arctic tundra during the last ice-age, but not alot of ice sheets, due to the fact that oceans produce moisture and precipitate snow near to ocean masses. Siberia being vast and land-locked will stay cool but the precipitation has already fallen near ocean land masses.
On 04 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Steve---Piers has explained that it will be north and east Britain that will experience the most severe weather and that south and west will be less cold.
On 04 May 2012, steve wrote:
so we know may will be cold record breaking as everyone knows now but what parts of britain is this going to affect and how much snow are we likely to get south east here! :D thanks!
On 04 May 2012, Russ wrote:
As of 3pm BST Friday 4th May the Met Office have NO WEATHER ALERTS for the next 5 days including Tuesday 8th .... If you pull this one off Piers, and I have every confidence that you will, I won't stop laughing until Christmas!
On 04 May 2012, Nick Stoneman wrote:
Hi Piers. Just watched your excellent video at http://bit.ly/JU6CYM You mention about how the southern hemisphere warms sooner than the northern hemisphere at the end of an ice-age, and that no one knows why this is, but it could be that the Gulf Stream takes a while to re-establish its northerly flow. Could it not also be related to the much greater landmass in the northern hemisphere, particularly at higher latitudes? That probably means much more extensive and vastly thicker ice sheets - not only a huge heat sink to warm up but also much greater reflectance of the sun's heat and light energy. Just a thought. Best wishes, Nick
On 04 May 2012, Steve Devine wrote:
Was scouring http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ today and found some interesting AGW (anti Global Warming) FACTS...
Record high (and persistent) sea ice in Baring Sea (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/03/another-sea-ice-record-in-the-bering-sea-plus-april-sea-ice-summary/).
However overall Arctic sea ice levels now dipping away from 1979-2000 average. But look South and in Antartica things are looking exceedingly cold with the largest sea ice content for a while, still above the 1979-2000 average.(http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png).
Global average land temperature graph shows a general decline in the last 5 years or so (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly.png).
Sunspot acitivity also minimal and it's looking like Pier's warning of a cold May (and then some?) are very warranted indeed!
On 03 May 2012, Dawn wrote:
NASA/Hathaway’s UPDATED solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/02/nasahathaways-updated-solar-cycle-prediction-smallest-in-100-years/
On 03 May 2012, Dawn wrote:
Full Moon at Perigee.
This year on May 6 two events, full moon and perigee, occur within a little over one minute of time of one another. Calculations show that for a period of just over 200 years there are only four occurrences comparable to that on May 06, 2012. Not only that, but the perigee on May 6 this year is one of the closest within the annual cycle of perigees.
Full article in the link below.
http://www.spanglefish.com/northernskies/index.asp?pageid=276772
On 03 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
F@@kin disgrace that the Express mentioned evety other private weather forecaster in its headline today on the cold blast EXCEPT PIERS AND WEATHERACTION. I triied to comment, but the site is even worse than the Scotsman and I did not have much luck either trying to protest to ClimateRealists. Thank goodness Nathan got one in for Piers.
On 03 May 2012, Rich T wrote:
Hi what exciting weather patterns are we likely to see in the next year? as you say (piers)we are in that period,also i follow and subscribe when i can so carry on the great work!! As we are an island we do seem to get very different weather from time to time than say the near continent,is this a result of the jet stream,sun/lunar or a combination many thanks,Richard.
On 03 May 2012, Casper wrote:
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/317838/Britain-facing-new-big-freeze
"WINTER will return this weekend as an Arctic blast threatens to send temperatures plunging to -9C.
Bitter northerly winds will bring harsh frosts and “significant” snowfall to blight the May Day Bank Holiday.
After the coldest April in 23 years, forecasters warned last night that next week’s temperatures could be the lowest ever recorded in May.
The mercury will plunge in parts of the North from tomorrow with lows of -7C (19F) forecast for Cumbria.
Mr Corbyn, you were right. Respect!
On 03 May 2012, brandon wrote:
hey piers tweet from netweather just said! >>>>> warmer from mid month onwards INCREASINGLY turning warmer??????!? what does people have to say to that as i thought by midmonth thats when itll be at its worst in may!!!?
On 03 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Carl,
fiirst signs that they are wakening up to the acute nature of the cold. Piers will get no credit from them of course, but we can make sure others know.
On 03 May 2012, Russ wrote:
Do I see the jet stream pushing south? Is it going to get stuck in another loop? Will it drag down that Arctic air? Do I see a prediction forming? ... I think I do....> www.sat24.com/?culture=en <.... What a strange cloud formation over the UK, and a huge windy boofler heading into the Bay of Biscay. I can almost smell those cold winds already!
On 03 May 2012, Rhys jaggar wrote:
I don't know if you're aware of it, but Leif Svalgaard really, really doesn't like you.
He's having some serious digs at you at WUWT right now.
Apparently your tornado forecasts were wrong so you are a trumped up self-publicist with sycophantic supporters.
Hell hath no fury like the Pope scorned, I guess.....
On 03 May 2012, Craig M wrote:
Ron, my thoughts as well. I've been hovering the weather boards and the trends I can see are definitely there. Be interesting how the solar+lunar factors will affect the R periods. I've also seen the latest beeb forecast dithering for the weekend. The models know the cold is coming but that's about it. I'm reading a very good paper at Tallblokes site on which is quite "illuminating" as it's about the moon's magnetosphere. Quite revealing on 'settled science' http://bit.ly/IASdD2
On 02 May 2012, Dawn wrote:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/02/nasahathaways-updated-solar-cycle-prediction-smallest-in-100-years/
On 02 May 2012, Carl wrote:
Totaly agree Ron just seen BBC forecast and they are dithering as to what it is going to do after Friday i think basicaly what they are saying is WE DONT KNOW!!!
On 02 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
The afternoon 'Beebcast' has changed things again. They are now predicting that there will be a slack area over the UK after a brief northerly and then the main Arctic air will be deflected eastwards into Norway. No doubt the 'nowcasts' will alter rapidly!
On 02 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Craig,
Further to my discussion with Shaun, it is indeed heartening to see your synopsis follows, closely in principle the strategic overview oultined by Piers. So now it just boils down to how cold it gets and for how long. The Italian synoptic map in Climate Realists would certainly suggest that the source airmass to the north and northwest is very cold indeed. So how cold?
On 02 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
More spoon feeding on the coming May cold from the ebullient Carol on the Beeb morning prog. Our wee garden plants are now under threat--'crivvens, jings, and help ma Boab' What next? The end of CO2 mythology?!
On 01 May 2012, View from the Solent wrote:
"The showers have helped grass to grow well, according to the Met Office. It says that, if the weather improves as expected, the grass will dry, leading to a huge release of pollen during hay fever season. "
From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9239504/Why-Aprils-showers-could-mean-a-very-sneezy-summer.html
As expected by whom? Place your bets time!
On 01 May 2012, Craig M wrote:
Monday 14 May—Sunday 27 May
A slow return towards average?
At present, the blocking anticyclone to the west of the UK doesn't look as though it will move anywhere too quickly during the second half of the month. With lower pressure to the northeast, this will maintain the idea that the north and east of the country will remain cooler and more unsettled with rainfall amounts higher than the May average.
At the same time, the best of the drier and brighter weather is more likely to be found across southern and western parts of the British Isles, allowing temperatures here to be around where they should be at this time of year.
On 01 May 2012, Craig M wrote:
Monday 7 May—Sunday 13 May
"The north wind doth blow"
High pressure looks set to make a shift to the west or northwest of the UK, so with lower pressure to the east this will introduce cool north to northwesterly winds across the country.
This usually means unsettled weather, and indeed there is a signal for further showers or longer spells of rain - and hill snow - leading to near or above average rainfall for most parts compared to May averages. Given the predominant wind direction it is also no surprise that +++temperatures will generally be below average.+++
On a brighter note, with that wind direction western areas should be favoured for the most sunshine. Given this, and some good shelter, parts of south Wales and southwest England may see the highest of the temperatures during this week, possibly coming in above average for these regions.
On 01 May 2012, Craig M wrote:
Met Monthly forecast 1/3 30 April-6 May
A N/S split...Low pressure close to the S of UK & H pressure to the N means that this week is...two halves weather [wx]-wise.
The S will have sev bouts of wet & oft windy wx, w rain hv at times & possibly thundery. This will result in above to well above average rainfall across Eng & Wales. Temps will...be warmer than of late, even warmer than av for the time of yr, so in any brighter interludes it should feel quite pleasant.
Across the N of the UK it will be a much drier week, with rainfall about av for the month. Under the influence of E or NE winds there will still be contrasts in the wx from W-E, esp in amounts of sunshine. The best of the sun, & the warmest wx, will be found across W Scot & NI, especially well-sheltered areas. Across E Scot, haar [sea fog] will at times keep the coasts cooler & duller, and fret [sea fog] may also affect parts of northeast England at times too.
On 01 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
First mention of cold northerly outbreak and use of snow icons on the Beeb mid-evening news bulletin. They had it a straight north blast, but no mention of severity to come. We wait in the wings, virtual daggers at the ready.
On 01 May 2012, pete wrote:
whats the reasings for the southern coast of england in brighton how much of the cold will affect this part of this month??
On 01 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
'Big Joe' is going for record cold just to the east of us, whilst the Italians are going for it to directly impact on us. The compromise position is for it to be cold in the east of Britain. I wonder who said that first?!
On 01 May 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
ALL Brill informed stuff as always - The best in town! Just one point SHAUN. Yes the MAY forecast is extreme and you could say risky but OK, WHAT TO DO? So SLAT7A shows what it shows? Do I (A) trim it back along the lines "A cold May but don't know how cold and it will be colder in places where there is more cold air (yes typical Met It will be sunny where there are breaks in the clouds) or (B) Announce what SLAT7A says. NOW With (A) I am 90%+ sure to be right but as the farmer would ask How cold? or (B) Say 80%(+?) sure and derision if we lose. BUT There is another scenario we announce (A) and (B) happens and people say Ah you said you could do extremes and you missed this. Not Good. Then we have the Met office type of fall-back Ah Er well we had that forecast too and we did honest expect it to happen but decided not to tell anyone - A laugh?! So You see? Knowledge doesn't always set you free! Piers. PS ALL, THIS MONTH Please encourage farmers etc to SUBSCRIBE to forecasts!
On 01 May 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Shaun,
Yes indeed. Simontific's comment gives added optimism. If this comes off for Piers, then we can be as ruthless to his opponents as they would be to him , should he be incorrect.
On 01 May 2012, B.Spin wrote:
Hello Piers and all,
Thankyou for your video at
http://bit.ly/JU6CYM
Very enlightening, the Shankun et al paper is being torn to shreds and the Henrik Svensmark paper is non existent in the effects of the magnetic influence of the sun and moon.
On 30 Apr 2012, Simontific wrote:
Now snow is making it into the MO forecast - rather different to the one two days ago I posted then +++++ UK Outlook for Saturday 5 May 2012 to Monday 14 May 2012:
+++ Largely dry across northern parts of the UK through the weekend with some bright or sunny spells, but it will be rather cold with overnight frost. There will be wintry showers in places, possibly giving snow accumulations over higher ground. Further south, remaining predominantly unsettled with rain or showers, with a threat of hill snow across Wales on Saturday. Breezy at times and feeling cold in the wind and rain. The remainder of the period looks likely to stay unsettled across the UK. Heavy rain is possible in places, turning wintry across higher ground in the north. Daytime temperatures remaining mostly below normal with the risk of night frosts. Towards the end of the period, southern parts may see more dry and bright periods whilst it remains unsettled further north.
+++
Updated: 1159 on Mon 30 Apr 2012
On 30 Apr 2012, Shaun wrote:
@ Ron I agree, I know it has been done now and I hope he's right; well hope he is right for the sake of what he is fighting for, I'd hate Piers to be treated like a total conspiracy nut and ignored by most, because despite any errors at least he isn't out lying and trying to brain wash society into believing the lies in aid of making money and causing harm to countries like Africa through hypocritical policies. At least he admits his wrong and his imperfections too and isn't afraid to voice his educated perceptions and just blindly accept everything he is told to believe. We are lucky to have such a mind fighting for truth instead of being another tool for fraud.
On 30 Apr 2012, Steve Devine wrote:
Preliminary figures this has been the wettest April on record. And yet the papers are still flooded with talk of the ongoing drought and "wrong kind of rain".
More compliments from Joe Bastardi on Twitter for Piers I saw today! Keep up the good work. All eyes on a cold May which the Italian met bods have also flagged!
On 30 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Shaun
Piers, must know he is sticking his neck out here and he's given high confidence levels. If this goes badly then he will be jumped upon by his critics who will make the best of it, the way the retractions of James Lovelock were used to attack the stance of the warmists. The die is cast. It's on the wings of fate now. I say best of luck to him.
On 30 Apr 2012, John Planet wrote:
Correction I meant the lousy Aprils and Mays of 1996 to 2001 and not 2011. 2011 was a mistake.
On 30 Apr 2012, John Planet wrote:
Hi Piers. Lousy Aprils and Mays were associated with the period between 1996 and 2011. Could the very wet April and the prospect of a very cold lousy May be a return to that pattern. The period also had some exceptionally wet autumns as well like that of 1998 and 2000. It would be interesting what the Autumn of 2012 would have in store for us.
On 30 Apr 2012, Shaun wrote:
continued... please don't criticise me or misunderstand me, I totally believe in Piers opinions and I believe he gets it right more than the MO. A common argument I have with people is how are the MO forecasts accurate when they have to update them a few times a day, an update renders the earlier forecast wrong and considering they make significant forecast changes daily they must be getting their extremely short term forecasts very wrong. But I also don't feel that once I pick a side that I have to stick to it despite it being wrong out of some kind of loyalty; I feel that an error by Piers in this May forecast would bring justified criticism and would damage his credibility. I hope that he is right, just so that I can see how soon it will be until the people I believe to be in denial will get a wake up call, or undeniable evidence but if Piers makes a mistake then I'd have to accept that to get it so wrong then I would no longer take him seriously.
On 30 Apr 2012, Casper wrote:
First at all, thank you for your video from Weather Action Meeting. It was clearly to understand and very interesting.
The science is no longer the science what we used to know. It became to business. This phenomenon has been described by Stanislaw Lem in his novel "The use of a dragon"
I wonder if your forecast will be true.
On 30 Apr 2012, eastern one wrote:
The point in the last post.
Observation of "global warming trends/weather variations" are nothing new.War's are fought & won this way.
Finland became independent by humiliating a soviet army ill equipped to cope with an unusually cold spell in Karelia in 1940.
The same army had learnt how to cope with cold winters by 1941.
Instead Germans froze for absence of winter clothing & tanks stopped working.
The offensive in 1939 was put off until 1940 because it was too COLD in France/Belgium to start a military campaign.
If the efficiency & might of the German army could be built & destroyed by a total inability to spot trends, what chance do we have, when the science has been politicised?
A belief in warming trends in 1920-40, led an army to fight a winter war, leaving 15 million dead.
AGW agenda we know was started by Mrs Thatcher in a conflict with the UK coal industry.
The 20-30yr time scale was roughly similar to influence opinion.
http://www.john-daly.com/history.htm
On 30 Apr 2012, Shaun wrote:
@ Ron and Craig; I have all the evidence I need to debate the issue. I am well capable of holding my own but I think you both misunderstood my issue. I understand how bad the MO are, especially considering this drought warning for next 3 months with April being the worst according to the MO and I am in regular arguments with people who can't see the obvious errors by the MO or if they do they don't slate the MO the same as they do Piers; makes me think there is some subconscious reason they are attacking only Piers and its possible they don't even know why. Anyway, my issue is that Piers is making some impressively sensational claims with pretty high % confidence and if he gets it wrong I'm afraid any who then opposes Piers would be right. I appreciate Piers can't ever know all the variables that effect weather but to make such massive claims should only come with certainty and any errors would make him look a sensationalist, creating media like exaggerated stories to sell.
On 29 Apr 2012, eastern one wrote:
Guess the dates in asterisks!
A little clue....
It's an Anniversary next week so v relevant.
"whole Northeast Passage was reported ice free by the Arctic Institute in St Petersburg"*
Temp anomaly Dec in Moscow**
(100 000 froze to death)
1st -7C 2nd -6C 3rd -9C
4th -36C
5th -37C
6th -37C
7th -6C 8th -8C
26th Jan -53C
"Feat of K....'s rapid passing of Northeast Passage was helped..by relatively little sea ice in this part of the Arctic Ocean since about 19xx***
.The high air temperatures along the Russian-Siberian coast from west to east during the summer of 19xx* & presence of open water.
"Before the invasion, on Hitler's advice..the German High Command had developed a strategy to avoid repeating N's mistakes.
H..was ..worried about a possibility of an early & cold Napoleon-like winter.
On the background of global warming, however since 1920 ..opinions of risk of a v cold winter were minimal".
*1940
**1941
***1920
It defeated the German army
On 29 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Piers,
I see the Italians are backing you up on your predictions for a very cold May, especially from the 5th. I'd rather go trout fishing in mild weather, but it will be worth having frozen fingers as long as I can use two of them in the time honoured salute to your CO2 fantasist critics. I am currently keeping them crossed,
On 29 Apr 2012, Fred wrote:
One thing that stands out to me at the momen is the very warm air pumped up to our east. I watched a video forecast by Piers a couple of weeks back and he spoke of this extreme and where the heat would come from. This setup requires troughing to the south of or over southern UK. This is the setup we have and spot on as I see it. Global cooling is under way, I believe we are into Dalton conditions already with Maunder equivalent to follow with a dangerous two tier cooling period. Piers, do you think this long period ahead is just round one and and that after a plateau we may see a second dip eg 40s to 70s temps then a further dip to 1800s and below etc? Or will we just head down into the mire?
On 29 Apr 2012, Carl wrote:
Piers forecasts coldest May for 100 years and already i am seeing evidence of this as a block seems to be developing over Greenland and a cold plunge looks like hitting the U.K in time for the May Day bank holiday weekend and would not surprise me if there was a little snow in the East and i have warned as many people as i can!!!
On 29 Apr 2012, Andy B wrote:
Just come across a very interesting interview by Dr Tim Ball from Canada he is a climatologist it is quite long but very informative, even Piers gets a mention. He explains in easy to understand language how the glaciers in Greenland are growing not receding. Hehas lots of interesting articles on his site!!
http://drtimball.com/2011/glacier-science-101-its-rainmaking-time/
On 29 Apr 2012, Robert-Michel wrote:
Outstanding research and exceptional sharing. Thanks for your involvement. Remarkable openings for those looking forward. Chapeau!
On 28 Apr 2012, pete wrote:
whats happening in may?
On 28 Apr 2012, Simontific wrote:
This is the current MO long range forecast for 3 May 2012 to 12 May 2012: ++ Fine and dry across many northern parts of the UK through Thursday with some sunshine, away from the cloudier east coast. Further south, conditions will be generally cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with some drier and brighter spells. For the remainder of the period, becoming largely unsettled across the whole of the UK. Showers may be heavy and thundery, possibly wintry over higher ground in the north. Becoming windier for many parts, especially across northern areas. Temperatures may be rather warm across some southern areas at first, but will tend to fall throughout the period across all areas, to become largely below average with a risk of frost by night in sheltered inland parts. Updated: 1213 on Sat 28 Apr 2012 ++ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
On 28 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Shaun,
The Met Office have just made an ass of themselves again over the prediction for a dry April. When Piers gets it wrong, we get a explanation of why and an upgrade to the SLAT technique. He was slated and slagged over his December 2010 prediction and we know how that turned out. I admire Piers' coiurage over the May prediction and he'll suffer for it if it turns out incorrectly. The Met Office on the other hand just get more money thrown at them whether they are correct or not, as long as they perpetuate the CO2 nonsense.
On 28 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
@shaun read article (below) to read how the politics of climate change is obliterating science. Use it to throw the view back in their faces. Ask who is the real 'nut job' - Piers' forecasts that work (end of Russian heat, 100yr record cold) or people that make stuff up, manipulate data, tell us in a very Orwellian way 'it's hot' when it's not, have actively tried thought control to the extent that they want people of dissenting views prosecuted! The use of the word 'deniers' is no coincidence disgustingly putting us on a par with holocaust deniers. That's psychopathy - or nut jobs.
Forrest Mims III, "an expert reviewer for the IPCC said" http://bit.ly/IfV17V "Why do some scientists insist that Texas is warming when the data show a negligible increase?...a National Science Foundation program officer told me that +++applications for atmospheric science grants that do not include a global warming theme stand little chance of acceptance+++"
On 28 Apr 2012, madmike wrote:
hi there.just wanted to say that we have been expecting the cool weather...so mr Pier and others like lord Monkton are right(we never doubted that) I have told everyone since 2009 and have managed to speak to local civil servants of municipalty and university of Zaragoza (Spain).also local tv station(intereconomia) stated mr Pier´s work in the first fortnight of April.but not only this, the state tv station has admitted that mr Pier´s right.people are beggining to see.keep up the work.
On 28 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Sorry Piers I have to disagree. The Met know why they messed the forecast - they need even MORE money for a new fangled super computer into which to put their dodgy theories in so it can continue to spew out the wrong results! ;) Seriously though when the Met Office don't have the begging bowl out, I wonder if they based their view upon the last few springs which were exceptionally dry & warm. Obviously the outlook, which Simontific highlights (below), coincides with their political views and computer output skewed by those views. Note the Met were quick to rubbish the chance of cold winters in recent years because we just had one. Obviously the word 'cold' goes against the grain and must not be uttered for fear of upsetting the watermelon/CO2 gods. BBQ summer anyone?
On 28 Apr 2012, Paul, Bedfordshire wrote:
Hi Piers,
If you are just interested in the weather for personal or gardening and general interest, rather than using forecasts for a business like farming which is the best subscription to get?
On 28 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL. Yes the other side were pretty silent, they were even more wrong than we were. We understand why we made a mistake. They do not. They will never learn. Now we have the most astounding man-made climate change event ever: Floods in a drought! Cheers Piers
On 28 Apr 2012, mwhite wrote:
Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
"The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for AprilMayJune as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months."
LoL
On 28 Apr 2012, pedro wrote:
we are now in the begin of the Corbyn´s ICE AGE ???
greetings from SPAIN
On 28 Apr 2012, Christopher Lee wrote:
Piers what kind of duration are we looking at for this little ice age conditions your speaking about?.
Is this a tipping point into something major or is it just a short blip of cooler temps?
On 28 Apr 2012, Simontific wrote:
As we brace ourselves for another heavy 'drought' storm there comes some perspective on Piers' 'miss' on the wet end to April. For those that dismiss Piers' capabilities they should remember that those good people at the Met Office with all their super computers and government funding and expertise are no better and you could easily say worse +++ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf +++ My favourite bit is "This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement." Then again if April is to be the driest of the three months then I best get cracking on that ark!!!!
On 28 Apr 2012, shaun wrote:
Hi Piers; First of all I would like to say I really like your work and effort. I do believe in your opinions regarding global cooling but your most recent claims regarding May are pretty sensational, granted there is something going on with the Sun but how sure are you that the current changes relate to notable weather change in May?
I'm only concerned because I get frustrated with the large numbers of people that like to slate you all the time simply because you have your own opinions and techniques instead of the drivel that is force fed us in society and then blindly accepted by many. When it comes to debating these issues with people it is getting to the stage where the majority of members in a discussion believe I'm a nut job because I am prepared to consider the opinions of yourself and I think with such significant claims that you have made regarding May could make you lose all credibility to most of the world if you turn out wrong.
On 27 Apr 2012, Dawn wrote:
Throughout the geological history of Earth 80% of the time it has been in an ice -age, the other 20% has been inter-glacial (which is where we are at now).
If you look at CO2, there is only one other time in our geological history that levels have been below 400ppm.
CO2 makes up 0.039% of our atmosphere.
Abount 5% of that has been "attributed" to AGW
How many ppm "extra" will that make?
The case for AGW , like a pack of cards, JUST DOESN'T STACK UP.
On 27 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
If you take 'CO2' then turn the 2 through 90 degrees to the left, you end up with, what looks to me like the word CON....!
On 27 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
Craig....I agree. I have witnessed the 'blind' belief that universities bestow upon individuals many, many times over the years and this CO2 theory is bringing out the very worst in our most esteemed doctors of science. I wonder, are students actually taught to question anything anymore, at any stage of their indoctrination? Erik is a prime example..."don't question me 'cos I'm a science god', type responses! He seems to miss Piers technique completely (Phd blindness). I have read thousands of pages of CO2 Climate Change theory from all angles. I have done the same studying mini ice-ages, and one thing stands out above all the data, the debate and the diatribe, 'COLD MEANS DEATH'...! While Ice-caps and desert regions show our existing extreme boundaries, a close look at biodiversity shows that millions of species live in equatorial and sub tropical areas but as we move to the cooler regions the numbers dwindle to just a few hardy specimens at the poles.
On 27 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
The last sentence of Craig's 26 April post is a timely reminder of how the CO2 Scambags are going to use the wide swings in Maunder-Dalton type climate to defend their crumbling intellectual fall-out bunker. We should be ready to counteract this and assist Piers in his struggle to lay out the truth.
On 27 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL! Great stuff as always. CRAIG, RON Yes the implications of Maunder-Dalton type weather and how that affects our forecasting (as well as life on the planet) which is mostly based on more-recent look backs, is very important, and CRAIG your input is superbly useful!! You have time to read, I rarely have enough time to sleep. --- RON+DR yes what happened in 2nd half of April is sort of May come early but also it is well understandable in terms of look-back options we slid-past (see our update on the other thread http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5 ). Nevertheless we will/are looking at more stuff further in the past which even though there are no pressure maps can point to important matters. --- Other stuff another day --- EXTRA I got an unbalanced question of nasty tone on quakes etc so rather than waste space here I directed them to such debate on CR http://climaterealists.com/?id=9507 where they could re-post rather than scream 'censorship'.
On 27 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
of note....“A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.”
http://bit.ly/JI7AtI
The projected solar minima (seemingly observed by the low solar activity - note low sunspots does not mean the sun is not affecting us as above) is being called the Landscheidt Minimum. Coronal hole activity is very important to Piers predictions.
On 27 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
I haven't said anything about the slating Piers has taken since he made his May forecast public (is this coincidence? - seems not to me but we'll never know). Whilst I respect Eric Klemetti for his work on volcanoes (excellent blog btw if you follow volcanic action), he does not predict. He can pick up 'signals' (i.e. volcanic behaviour) but what Piers does is v different. His supposed searing rebuttal was in fact miles off the mark, shown mostly by his dismissive attitude to the one day leeway Piers has in his forecasts. If you follow what Piers predicts it's the period one day either side that often seems to be most active. The coronal holes are what affect the quakes - often as we enter/exit an earth facing period - which is the one day 'leeway'. If Eric K had looked at climaterealists.com he may have seen this rather than sniping from the sidelines on something he doesn't understand (& I say that with respect to his great work).
On 27 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Following what was mentioned in the other thread about Joe B thinking Piers has overcooked his May forecast (he was nice about it), his view is based on model output and what I seem to have taken from much of the criticism is that no one has bothered to read what Piers said. This is +++not+++ an England & Wales forecast he was quite specific that it is for 'East Britain' - remember East Britain caught the super euro cold the rest of our fair islands were mostly unaffected. Piers also said in 100yrs or ===near=== At the range the models work at a slight 'slip' of a hundred km or so makes a massive difference which is why the track of the weekend storm is so uncertain - don't forget also that during the winter the 'reliable' period for the models was 96hrs! However they are showing a cold start to May on the cards. Piers prediction not as 'loony' as it first sounded/? I've put my money where my mouth is in this case & bought his 'historic forecast'.
On 27 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Locally, we've seen the most rain since Aug 11 & I saw today they said on track for the most since Nov 09 (not equal to as this was double current levels). The Met have a yellow warning for Sun (29th) "Another vigorous depression is expected to spread heavy rain & strong winds into S & some central areas of Eng & Wal...this may lead to some impacts in terms of localised flooding given recent wet conditions, and that easterly winds may exceed 50mph in exposed locations"
This is during an R3 warning period (29/30) so will be very interesting to see what happens.
In other news I read the Met say there is no end in sight to the rain (which makes a cold May more likely judging by how the rain has affected temps so far)
On 26 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
The current forecast for SC24 is 61 SSN for Spring 2013 (SC25 is 7 but forecasts from NASA have been way off, hence use caution). This is lowest for 100yrs http://1.usa.gov/Icft6Z
Solanki (2004) referred to the modern maxima
"According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago" http://1.usa.gov/JqkCd9
Unprecedented warming has occurred in those 70 yrs but according to a wiki chart I saw the correlation drops in the 1980's (in case you didn't know wiki have 'gatekeepers' on AGW so no dissenting 'thought crimes' are allowed - fascinating & shocking stuff if you have the time to look into). But it's not all about SSN as Piers has stated. We now face a tooth & nail fight as the alarmists use extreme swings & cold as 'proof' for their deluded 'catch-all' CO2 theory. It's going to get ugly before it gets better
On 26 Apr 2012, JohnW wrote:
I read the latets japanese stuff on the sun, very interesting.
Have you read "Did exploding stars help life on Earth to thrive?" Prof. Henrik Svensmark has just had a paper published by the Royal Astronomical Society
http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/219-news-2012/2117-did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive.
What do you make of it? The conclusion in his actual paper does include a reference to CO2.
On 26 Apr 2012, dr wrote:
Piers, if the sun goes into an unusual state that hasn't been seen for decades, won't this negatively affect all your techniques? or are you able to predict the affect already before you have examples of the way in which the sun earth connection is affected by a quadropole state?
On 26 Apr 2012, charlie silverman wrote:
Hello piers, can you give us a laymans explanation as to why low solar activity could have a possible linkage to volcanic activity?. Could a weak magnetosphere have a bearing on this phenomenon?, Does this happen at the beggining of ice age's?, ie more volcanic material in the stratosphere (and other sphere's) reflecting some of the Suns influence back out into space?. Thanks, love your work.
On 26 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
As I said in a previous post, giant hailstones were an often mentioned feature of the Maunder and Dalton minimums --for example Norwich 1656 'and most predigious hailstones, which being 5 inches about, did so violently batter down the windows of the city------divers men and women struck dead'
One can only imagine the devastation this would cause on a major motorway at rush hour. Winters with no frost and snow could precede or follow those with severity. In 1691 parts of the Nile Delta froze---wonder how the CO2 Scambags would report that one now!? Anyway it's worth a google at A Chronological Listing of Early Weather events, by James Marusek. A wee dram in hand, it makes a good scary read.
On 26 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Piers,
This latest update is very bold, but it needs to be in terms of what a Maunder or Dalton minimums might mean for wider society and one that has been sucker-punched by the Warmo-Panickers into being unprepared. Basically a Dalton type will be very bad and a Maunder truly awful ,in a society though apparently technically much more advanced than these last time these events occurred, is in many ways much more vulnerable to disruption.
I would not beat yourself up over the corrections to the first predictions for April for it would appear that the weather patterns you predicted for May have just arrived that bit early.
We are in a new era now and bearing in mind the huge swings associated with this solar phase, predicting weather will be all the much harder, even for those understanding the cause and impossible for those using CO2 Scamolgy techniques.
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