On 02 Feb 2013, weight loss pills wrote:
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On 07 Jun 2012, Mikiko wrote:
It's all a bit vague, Steve. You speak of a sharp downturn in Arctic' temps for Autumn (lowest since 1996), but show a chart only of 80N+. Already there is coofusinn in your first post, and this flows into your current question, which is even more vague. Do I answer your question here for total Arctic area, or just by eye-balling the 80N graph?I'll take the latter course for now.There's a down spike in temps for the first few days of Autumn, north of 80N, that doesn't seem to be equalled since 1996, just from eye-balling the DMI charts. If your remarks had been as constrained as that, then none of the following criticism would have occurred. But you went on As you have indicated, summertime temps North of 80 don't rise much above zero. IIRC, you've explained why in the past (80N+ always ice-bound, temps hover around normal. Not being one of your familiars, I now ask myself if this remarking on the unremarkable was a jest or attention-getter, as suggested by Scott.But if I take it
On 26 Apr 2012, Andy wrote:
Giant hailstones.At last something useful for the wind turbines to do.Tilted through 90 degrees and run flat out they could attempt to chop the hail down to normal size.Sadly due to their present locations they would be unable to protect many people and properties. Reports today of tornadoes in Rugby and Essex causing damage.Keep up the good work Piers.
On 26 Apr 2012, eastern one wrote:
I strongly reccommend reading space physics university of Oulu Finland's pages, especially their excellent wiki
https://wiki.oulu.fi/display/SpaceWiki/Solar+system
It explains in details which the less scientific can understand,just why the sun has such a massive influence on both weather & climate.
Must read:- http://spaceweb.oulu.fi/~kalevi/publications/non-refereed2/ESA_SP477_lostcycle.pdf
It explains in some detail how maunder minimum was reached via abnomalies in the sunspot number (low solar magnetic flux), & the partial failure of solar cycle 4.
We are now in solar cycle 24.The sun spot number parallels are striking, with many predicting a non existent or extremely weak cycle 25.
In 2008 there was a period of more than 200 days of ZERO sunspots.
It's quite unusual, & may have some relevance to the jetstream shifts we see happening now.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange
http://www.spaceweather.com/ !today's weather!
On 26 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
Really good stuff here. CRAIG M + RON Thanks indeed very useful stuff. More on Maunder+Dalton Minima and the early parts / entry to important if anyone can find. Note we don't know if we are entering Dalton type or Maunder type. They might not be the same and we have been more or less assuming parallels with Dalton although that is an assumption --- JOHNATHON MORRIS Yes our April forecast went wrong around mid-month, and as we say some will go wrong. WE ISSUED AN UPDATE - see above. What happened and indeed why is now pretty clear. --- RUSS Thanks yes ongoing monitoring of the 'wettest drought' needed great.
On 26 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
@Russ they should look at BI history-famous for cloud & rain (with lots of periodic drought!). From Roman times to French Revolution they complain about our weather!
If interested in the UK climate during the Maunder min try http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm
including this from 1663 "Several contemporary reports of ...a cold, wet season, following a lot of rain falling in May. Some reports have the wet weather (with flooding) lasting from the latter half of Apr until at least mid-Jul. Even in Aug, though the reports for rain/floods ease, it obviously remained on the chilly side, with Pepys noting on [28/8]... 'cold all night & this morning, & a very great frost, having no summer at all almost'; fog was also reported in London [..] in Aug."
On the plus side within 3-4 years they had hot & dry spells +vicious winters. These contrasts = extreme weather = Piers forecasts! P.S. now 125% of avg rainfall for my area!
On 26 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Some 'hot' weather records for the UK to mull over (current record first previous in brackets)
Jan - 1916 7.5°C (7.3 1796)
Feb - 1779 7.9°C (6.8 1739)
Mar - 1957 9.2°C (9.1 1938)*
Apr - 2011 11.8°C (11.2 2007)
May - 1833 15.1°C (13.8 1758)
Jun - 1846 18.2°C (18.0 1676)
Jul - 2006 19.7°C (19.5 1983)
Aug - 1995 19.2°C (18.7 1975)
Sep - 2006 16.8°C (16.6 1729)
Oct - 2001 13.3°C (13.0 1969)
Nov - 1994 10.1°C (9.5 1818)
Dec - 1974+1934 8.1°C (7.7 1852)
* Piers is this a signal for March again?
What I found interesting is that we were in a solar max, so some of these records=no surprise
Now let's look at seasonally:
Spring - 2011 10.23°C (10.20 1893)
Summer - 1976 17.77°C (17.60 1826)
Autumn - 2006 12.62°C (11.80 1730)
Winter - 1869 6.77°C (6.53 1834)
So as we go to solar min can we expect like the Dalton min when "The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°c decline over 20 yrs"?
On 26 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Interesting discussion at TallBloke's blog http://bit.ly/IwoYPy looks at a possible change in amplitude shown in Arctic ice max/min levels since '07 (which are still above avg). Also check chart by tchannon (comment April 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm) - correlates well with the temps I've seen locally (warm/dry spring wet below av Summer). Which brings me back to Piers comment about a 'switch' in Apr (07 & 11 were warmest ever) - it looks like a poss switch of signal - to be expected after the hiatus in 'warming' now we are globally cooling? [caveat the data for so few years = caution (think 30 yr sea ice for alarmism)] Can we check local records re: impact since '07 could prove useful for Piers - it could i.e. be more extreme cold/heat in the Urals in winter/summer as the eastern one commented. The M-D had some major swings in monthly av temps, in all seasons, so significant swings would be expected (Dec 10 was one massive 'swing') up as well as down.
On 25 Apr 2012, Johnahthon Morris wrote:
Hi Piers,
I'm a big fan of your Youtube site, and I recommend everyone here to have a look at it.
However in your latest forecast you said that drought conditions in the UK would continue thought April. As I look out of my window that doesn't seem to be quite right. Did I misunderstand what you were saying perhaps?
On 25 Apr 2012, James wrote:
I've been reading these Comments pages for a while, and as an amateur observer of meteorology, I might occasionally have one or two comments to make. First and foremost, let's look at the current drought. I live in Surrey, where drought conditions are supposedly prevalent, but groundwater readings and river levels do suggest that with further rainfall (not necessarily heavy or prolonged), we'll be out of drought in some areas way before Christmas. I'm strongly of the opinion that strategic water resources haven't been used correctly and this has led to temporary water shortages; also that prolonged effects of water shortage won't be too severe, given expected cooler weather (May) and the current river levels. My second point today, for the record, is I too have believed for a while that man-made warming theories place human gas emissions into a far too significant position and therefore errant. I can see that weather is much more closely related to your solar and weather cycle science.
On 25 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Russ---regarding your Marusek reference, I googled and had a run through some of his stuff. In respect of the Dalton Minimum, it is remarkable for the anecdotes on the severity of hailstorms, the huge size of the hailstones and the damage, indeed fatalities that they caused. This may be a good index if this starts to happen again. Our widespread use of glass in so many ways will make us more vulnerable that 18th/19th century society.
On 25 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
Who else agrees with this bloke? " It's a MYTH that we live on a rain soaked island!"...> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17844171 <... I think it's a myth that this bloke knows what the heck he's talking about... Summer 2011 the water levels had been low for some months in the Derwent Valley. When the rains came the reservoirs took 5 days to fill up which is pretty normal. A waterboard technician told us that a reservoir acts like a gauge, and if the level is low, it's showing you that the groundwater level is also low. So in 5 days, the reservoirs and aquifers of the Derwent Valley are easily filled, after months of drought. They have been and still are overflowing because the water table/aquifers/groundwater level can't take any more yet this area is on drought alert, an alert which was put in place weeks ago when the reservoirs were already full.
On 25 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
James Marusek has some good ideas about ancient civilisation and coping with solar flares and ice ages but he is stuck in doctrine land when it comes to reasons and driving forces. His theory seems to me like the other side of the same wrong coin. We have a thimble full of CO2 tipping us into apocalypse or strings of nearby supernova doing the same. Why do these people think that the huge star, sat on our doorstep, is a tiny fluffy kitten, incapable of doing us any harm exept perhaps giving us a severe cuddle? ITS A STAR! When its output drops off the scale for 6 months and the earth turns into an ice-ball again, I guess we'll all have learned something else about stellar evolution. Too bad we'll all be plunged back to the stone age. Must remember to save some cave paint and matches! We'll have plenty of caves to inhabit thanks to all the mining over the century's. You want to pray to something, try the Sun. The ancients worshipped it because they saw what it was capable of!
On 25 Apr 2012, Ingmar (FR) wrote:
Stormy weather for a western part of France, currently I am on the Island of YEU, department of Vendée, not far from Bretagne region. I arrived there on 23th by helicopter because all ferries were cancelled. That was impressive to fly over a raging ocean ! After a small break on 24th, it sets off again in the evening till now 25th = gusts of 100 km/h. R4 is spot on ?!
http://www.francesoir.fr/pratique/meteo/meteo-france-des-rafales-de-vents-jusqu-a-110-kmh-en-bretagne-215731.html
On 25 Apr 2012, eastern one wrote:
U may be suffering v wet stormy weather in UK, but are U aware we've been having record temperatures in Ural region,>warm winds from south v similar to what started the heat waves of 2010, but much earlier?
It hit a v DRY 27C the other day, which is v high for April.
Serious flooding has been reported all over European Russia, because 2-3m of snow melted in a matter of days.
Looking at the sun over last year, & periods of uncharacteristically low or zero sun spot activity, we DO appear to be having extreme cold winters & hot summers developing in Eastern Europe.
Last summer in Baltic States/Scandinavia was one of the longest & hottest in decades, while western Europe & France had poor seasons.
If solar maximum occurs 1yr early, but it's a low max.Then it is starting to add up, that Solar cycle 25 may be almost non existent with v low gaussian minima & maxima.
What happens then?
We all freeze+prices of foods sky-rocket, because of so much misuse for subsidised bio fuel??
On 25 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Steve,
Piers and Joe Bastardi may differ in degrees, both metaphorically and literally, but not in their strategic view of the CO2 scambags.
On 25 Apr 2012, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Piers and WA fans! The Daily Express is currently taking an ear-bashing by Netweather fans (http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/316206/Sizzling-barbecue-summer-to-scorch-away-miserable-May). Express article claiming PAO (Positive Atlantic Oscillation) will herald a run of hot summers. As for Netweather fans - People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones! (They spent most of the winter mocking Piers!)
Anyway, currently enjoying the swirling low pressure drenching the majority of England and Wales. Winds set to pick up later today (Weds 25th Apr). A months worth of rain to fall apparently.
Can't wait to purchase the May forecast. Keep up the good fight Piers!
Steve D
On 25 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL --- CRAIG M . That is useful, Well something clearly happened in USA and UK 22-24th involving extra activity but USA we did NOT get the tornadoes we expected we got a big storm instead. April Tndo level USA has been low it is reported. So UK rain; April I can see it now with a better way of using look-backs as I said in the statement. Is this wet April a switch ti something new? Is there a cycle in April rain? --- STEVE Yes Joe B said the same in Dec 2010 'mild by Xmas' he kept saying --- DAWN ALL Are we now moving into something different? Cold Mays / Springs like Maunder-Dalton? the Japan study if correct would put us there! A messed-up Mag field on the sun as in M-D would give us the very cold May --- RON+BSPIN, No Svensmark is a good guy but his theory is as delusional as CO2 See my Comment: http://climaterealists.com/?id=9491 - he's a fall guy being given rope. Read and pass on thanks Piers.
On 25 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Upto 15 inches of snow were dropped in US wx event (high elevation). It was a 'HISTORIC LATE-APRIL WINTER STORM' http://1.usa.gov/IcO0o2 === & in the UK we get 'the wrong kind of rain'. You'd think downpours, showers, hail and thunder had never happened before === for my area 102% of av. rainfall already this month, last April was just 5%! Looking at local observations since 2009 rainfall has been overall low but this has been characterised by v dry warm springs & wet(ter) summers (mostly wet in Aug). Most of the rain shortfall happens Mar-May & Sep-Oct where we've averaged less than half normal amounts. Mar-May are not wet times of year according to the 61-90+ 71-00 averages, Sep-Oct have nearly as much rain as Spring total (not inc Nov). AGW predicts (from the Met) "rainfall in the UK during summer is decreasing, while in winter it is increasing" === +++or+++ it goes in cycles which have nothing to do with CO2 & happened before.
On 24 Apr 2012, steve wrote:
hey piers! even big joe bastardi is saying its not going to be as cold as your predicting piers this is going to be so interesting as one of the big guys is going to fail on predictions!
On 24 Apr 2012, Dawn wrote:
“Officials of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19 that the activity of sunspots appeared to resemble a 70-year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over and cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual in Kyoto.
In that era, known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures are estimated to have been about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century.
The Japanese study found that the trend of current sunspot activity is similar to records from that period.
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075
On 24 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Brian, I sincerely hope so, but sadly history proves that pioneers are expendable. All we can do is to back Piers and argue the case for Weatheraction to get the funding that various ' Johnnie come latelies' waiting like Hyenas in the grass, will be after.
On 24 Apr 2012, B.Spin wrote:
Hello all,
If any of you doubt Piers Corbyns methods he now has other scientists going down the same path.I hope he is aknowledged in history as the 'pathfinder'.
See this link here.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/24/svensmarks-cosmic-jackpot-evidence-of-nearby-supernovae-affecting-life-on-earth/#more-61941
On 24 Apr 2012, Dawn wrote:
JAMES LOVELOCK, the originator of the Gaia theory, has admitted he and other environmentalists such as Al Gore have been "alarmist" about climate change.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/health-science/climate-change/46472/james-lovelock-admits-being-alarmist-over-climate-change
CAGW'ites.....Its too late to close the stable doors. The horse bolted ages ago.
On 24 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Met Outlook from BBC 30/4-6/5 "Low pressure seems v reluctant to leave as we head into May, although some interludes of more settled wx are likely to be mixed in between the rain & showers. With the heavier spells of rain it is likely to be windy once again, making it feel chilly for the time of year. Overnight frosts are still likely from time to time when the wind becomes light, particularly for inland rural areas.
7-20/5 Apr Part II?
It may seem as if the calendar hadn't told the weather that May arrived! Conditions look likely to remain largely unsettled into [Mid May] with a continuation of those showers or longer spells of rain. Rainfall totals are expected to be close/just above avg, esp across the N. Between the rain or showers there should also be some drier & brighter interludes, these most likely in the S. Temps will largely be close to or just below the May avg although it will always feel cool in the wind & rain.
On 24 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes Paul, but they will try to hide it, and it will be fun seeing the intellectual and moral contortions they will get up to in order to do so. Wouldn't an official -30 Celsius cover up be fun!?
On 24 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Saw the BEEB, last night, make the first mention of cold northerlies coming in an the start of May---mmmm interesting that!
On 24 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL. RHYS yes I recall that summer in detail and the deluge September. Remember the Environment Agency Do NOT Want To Know perhaps in case their assumptions are as insane as April is wet --- RUSS Yes indeed a screen shot of quakes map Is there no archive? Losing quakes is a serious matter. Grouping might make sense but only if location and depth is similar and its meaning must be clear, eg M6+ M7 in amplitude terms = M7.1 Are we getting into meddling a la Temperatures? Oh help! As far as I recall a huge one was reported in Libya around the start of the conflict then no records, maybe it was something military. --- GERARD Yes good point --- RON Brill now here the CO2 sect has a prob. Does QV (Extra Quakes-Volcanoes) and Cold an Low average solar activity have common cause? Does QV drive the Sun? Does CO2 drive the Sun? There is ONLY ONE possible cause the solar-magnetic +Lunar driver. --- Piers
On 23 Apr 2012, Lorraine wrote:
Its quite reassuring that our weather patterns seem to be balancing out to definite seasons, the winters are cold springs sunny with cold winds high heat in summer. If this continues long term then it mirrors the weather of my childhood years in the 1960s
On 23 Apr 2012, Paul wrote:
If we do get this Maunder or Dalton type mininium certain meteological institutes are going to find it very difficult to manipulate there data/statistics etc to hide the drop in temperature.
On 23 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Interesting that Warmo-Panickers dismiiss the sollar influence on the low temperatures during the Maunder and Dalton minimums and ascribe the temperature drop instead to volcanic activity. Here you are of course, now trialling predictions of terrestrial seismic activity from solar activity. mmmm Solar mins and increased volcanic activity----funny that!
On 23 Apr 2012, Gerard wrote:
If the jet stream moves further south that it is now wouldn't places like Spain and Portugal start to have lousy Summers as a result of low pressures taking a more southerly course?
On 23 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
Piers, I shall take a screen capture next time, I never thought about the list expiring. All the above 6.0 quakes were centred around northern Papua and close together. I wonder if the USGS averaged them into one mean quake? (pun intended)
On 23 Apr 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Steve
Drought usually means water supplies lower than a certain level i.e. a build up over time of drier than usual conditions.
Clearly, subsequent rain will not worsen the drought but it may take some months of rainfall to end it.
The comparisons with 1975/6 are acceptable up to now, but summer 1976 was remarkably hot and dry. If this summer is wet and mild, I don't think the comparisons will still be being made come September when it finally began raining in London that year......
On 22 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
PETER! Brilliant! I suppose they didn't have warm Marches as well but we are not at the new Maunder-Dalton (M-D) minimum yet, just going there. We are in an unstable situation (in weather state terms under SLAT) oscillating between 'normal' & 'M-D' world regimes. I have warned in dozens of meetings that we are at the start of a rapid (in the sense of years) plunge in world temperatures. Another way of describing what you say is Jet Stream South (JSS) over Brit & Ire and this started to become more frequent in 2007 - the floods galore we predicted for the Met Offices blazing etc summers! I think after some years of JSS we get a Gulf stream switch to GSS (Gulf stream South) then we have a proper M-D minimum with no mild winters and only cold rather wet summers. However cold it is the GWers will be proudly saying but for their deluded measures it would be warmer - as the sea freezes on a regular basis around our shores in winter. THIS will be discussed more at WA open meeting Fri 27th
On 22 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS RON, STEVE, BSPIN. We are in the end game of the warmist sect and they are totally desperate. The attack on our quake work is at the ESN (Educationally sub-normal) level but then that is what to expect but nevertheless lies said often enough do stick so THANK YOU for taking up the fight. I cannot be on all sites and anyone it is better for others to speak. For more on the Quake brazen lies please see 6 points I make on 7th comment at: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9452&linkbox=true&position=3 Thanks for looking BSPIN I hope you can use these points. --- RON Yes The Indy is the most deluded of all 'news'papers and my phone 'interview' by them was really a sort of thinly veiled torrent of bile; hence my reaction but even I didn't expect he would quote it like that. However at least he put in the bit about ColaCola. THANKS for going there I hope more will go there and on quakes etc. There will be more of this stuff in the next days. --- Cheers Piers
On 22 Apr 2012, Peter Harriosn wrote:
Allready the surface pressure charts resemble a "Little Ice Age" chart - low pressure systems coming in of the Atlantic are quite small and high pressure over the Greenland area. During the "Late Maunder Minimum" 1675 to 1704 the diarists Evelyn and Wood capture the very cold Mays in their witings, such as: the woods were still in a state of winter (no leaves appearing)
On 22 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL. Great well-informed as always. --- RICHARDW+BRANDON Thanks for getting Netweather statement, we will monitor that - which is about the longest ahead they ever state. I think their skill even from this 10 days ahead is zero or negative. I have never seen their success rate and suspect it must be about the same as MetO because they are the same camp and we know that for extreme seasons MetO is skill minus 100% since 2007 --- CADDY Come of it! Would you be proud of having something you had said as a banner head on the front page of the Express? Of course you would (assuming it was not something of a criminal nature you didn't want reported) WHAT are you really saying? --- BSPIN, RUSS, Yes we have an excellent quake hit 21st but I don't follow your list USGS only has one quake M6.5+ Was there double reporating on the link you gave - which is now expired & I can't see previous. USGS = http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
On 22 Apr 2012, Steve, Dorset wrote:
Hello all, I have been looking at the responses to piers comment about a cold may, well we will have to see what comes along, we will not have long to wait, Looking at the comments it seems to me that the Met office and the biased media have already laughed it out of court.
So dear friends watch this space and then judge for yourselves.
P.S. It has not stopped raining since a drought has been declared across England.
Drought should Mean DRY or am I being silly.
Best wishes from Dorset.
On 21 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Piers,
Saw the rabid comments by some posters to the Independent and have written in support. They must be worried. Keep up the good work.
On 21 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
Big pile of quakes around Papua New Guinea last night the biggest of which was 6.9 so pretty healthy and at least 4 of them over Piers threshold. Two 6.6's and a 6.7 all close together all in the same region....> http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/ <....also Popocatepetle is going POP again! Appropriate name! Fraud eh? Better let a judge decide hehehe!
On 20 Apr 2012, B.Spin wrote:
Hello all
There is a website taking the p*ss out of Piers earthquake predictions.
He needs some help here,go read and comment.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/04/the-fraudulent-business-of-earthquake-and-eruption-prediction/
On 20 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
In Britain we have an old proverb, "Cast not a clowt till May is out"!....Meaning, don't throw off your warm clothing until the end of May. That just about sums up UK weather perfectly.
On 20 Apr 2012, Caddy wrote:
We will see how accurate this forecast is as the next few weeks unfold.
However, front page coverage on the Daily Express is hardly something to be proud of. Those guys are so desperate that they will print almost anything to fill the space. A rehashed press release is pretty much par for the course.
On 20 Apr 2012, brandon hall wrote:
pffft piers have you seen what netweather have said?????? coldest may in 100 yearS...not likely!
On 20 Apr 2012, RichardW wrote:
There's a re-run of the cold May story on NetWeather this morning. Their conclusion:
"In summary, whilst longer range forecasting is often fraught with difficulty and always considered lower confidence than shorter range forecasting, we think the likelihood of a significantly colder than average May is very low. "
The battle lines are firmly drawn!
On 20 Apr 2012, Nacho wrote:
Other comment says that in Spain is said: Cuando marzo mayea, mayo marcea the traduction is bad done. The real traduction is When March acts like May, May acts like March...
On 19 Apr 2012, Paul wrote:
This run of topsy turvy weather over the last few years could be a sign that the weather is changing to something colder. Signs that it is really getting colder will be more sea ice especially during September when its at its least extent. Another sign would be the 528dm thickness area increases so theres a bigger volumn of cold air over the hemispheres during winter.
On a Horizon programme about shifting climate patterns they mentioned that Bahrain in the Arabian gulf could have a hurricane. It makes sense because the seas off the arabian peninsula get very warm. If a deep low pressure formed over this area it could cause flooding to the low lying areas and coastal cities.
On 19 Apr 2012, Lorraine wrote:
Cold May, nature is interesting last years Swallows arrived on 30th March this year they arrived today 21 st April 2012 in my area. As they feed off flying insects it concerns me, feeding of their young may prove difficult, if it's going to be very cold.
On 19 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Congrats on getting front page Express and also the mention in the Telegraph http://tgr.ph/HLgDFo also a big thank you for your kind comments.
The Telegraph article points out this April is on course to be a top ten wettest - it won't solve the 'drought'. I hope to have a look back at some other patterns, alluded to in comments below, to see what is suggested.
This is also a great read. This is how NASA made a simple mistake that nearly cost another space shuttle disaster. It's sad to see the shuttles go as I was lucky enough to see one up close (and one piggyback on a jumbo jet near Heathrow) - think if the money spent on AGW was spent on space weather instead. Sometimes the simplest of mistakes, at the start, can lead to disaster down the line (via WUWT) http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2012/04/18/how-we-nearly-lost-discovery/
On 19 Apr 2012, Rajan Alexander wrote:
This is great news Piers. Wonder whether Coldest May includes affecting the CRU East Anglia and Oxford where Oxfam a key cog in the wheel of the climate scam is located?
On 19 Apr 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
You also appear to have made it onto the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2131939/UK-weather-Coldest-May-100-years-forecast-sizzling-summer.html
On 19 Apr 2012, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
With regard to the Express article typo of 1891, not 1981, I can report with humour that 1981 was very famous in the Alps as bringing very significant snowfall to Alpine VALLEYS on 15th July. I was there on German conversational learning experience and woke one morning not to a White Christmas but to a White Summer.
Perhaps you might prognosticate on similar occurrences next summer (22 years), or in 2020 (39 =- 3*13 years)?
On 19 Apr 2012, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Good to see you hitting the front pages Piers.
But sadly your efforts will continue to be blanked by the establishment, as there is too much money & many careers riding on what they've started / created.
Unless the main stream media & prominent people get behind you, enabling the public to be easily & correctly informed, its going to be a difficult battle.
If it ever comes to pass, I will be first in line to claim back all the bogus 'mis sold' emmission taxes I've paid back from the Govt, (which would cause another economic crisis), just like PPI.....
..... but I wont hold my breath :)
Keep up the good work
On 19 Apr 2012, brandon hall wrote:
ahhhh piersssssss! hope your right!! my birthday is on the 2nd of may i hope it snows in portsmouth!!
On 19 Apr 2012, Laurel wrote:
Piers, thanks for the warning for us..your actions may help many people save some crops and animals discomfort, and deaths.
down here in Aus NSW just copped 2 days of heavy flooding rains..again..
while the rest of aus and my state are once again warmer than usual for the time of year and dry, so dry its dust not dirt, and all farmers are feeding out..higher rates of loss in some areas lambing due to scarce feed, they need the fresh grass and vitamin C. there isnt any:-(
On 19 Apr 2012, Jens Christian Heuer wrote:
A brand-new paper from Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus (http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf) may help to explain the current weather conditions in U.K.!?
The two scientist have found that enhanced Arctic warming (Ice-Albedo Feedback) relative to mid latitudes (Arctic amplification, AA)leads to prolonged extreme weather events, like droughts, heat waves, heavy rain and cold spells !
Due to the fact that jetstream is driven by gradient in air-temperature between polar regions and mid latitudes, jetstream slows down and becomes wavier. As a result the high and low pressure systems moved by jetstream slow down, too. As is known these weather systems arise from turbulence in jetstream like the vortexes of a raging river do.
Best regards
Jens Christian Heuer
http://meteoklima.wordpress.com/
On 19 Apr 2012, ScottM wrote:
Great to see the Express carry the headline, not so great some of the ignorant comments to the express website
On 19 Apr 2012, spence wrote:
Spanish saying
Cuando marzo mayea, mayo marcea
When March is good May is bad.
On 18 Apr 2012, pedro wrote:
hi fantastic web
what about for spain ???
thanks ;D
On 18 Apr 2012, tom carry wrote:
ahaa i find it funny that when it was hot and dry ion march everyone was like woo its gunna be a hot summer and i was like erm you do realize that we live in the UK yeah this week could be hot but next week could be cold and wet and that's what happened, also piers can u give us any suggestions weather may will be dry or not and how far south the snow may possibly reach? :) thanks
On 18 Apr 2012, Carl wrote:
Interesting fact!!! I have been looking up facts about cold Mays and particularly 1934 and have found that Junes have also been a little grotty where as Julys tended to be rather Hot but also Thundery and also summers have come very very suddenly like 1955 in early Julymaybe or maybe not that may happen the coldest May i could find of the last 112 years was 1902
On 18 Apr 2012, Paul wrote:
This impending cold May is not good news for my tomato plants. Night temperatures this April seem to be lower with plenty of frost. If snow reaches East Anglia this May this would be extremely unusual as i've never seen this before. Because we had a warm March this is not an indication of a hot spring and summer.
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
A note on 'weather records' which alludes to what Piers was saying when we had 'record' temps in March. I said before the snow/cold in Feb 'records will be broken' because that's how weather works - records (cold/warm/dry/sunny etc) are always being broken - we only have 300 years of records not millennia. We are in drought now but cast your minds back...
2000-2009 (Decade): WETTEST DECADE IN THE EWP SERIES
1. Using the EWP series maintained by the Met Office, the 'whole' decade 2000-2009 was the WETTEST in that series (began 1766): the 10-year mean was 987 mm, and this figure is comfortably above the previous highest set in the 1870s (978 mm). The ten years included the third wettest (2000/1233mm/133%) and tenth wettest (2002/1118mm/121%), and it was the inclusion of the former very wet year that helped these 10 years stand out. However +++note that using a 10-year rolling mean, then the period 1874-1883 is the wettest such period+++ http://bit.ly/HPL5lg
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
re: 1996, 16 yrs ago, def fun to revisit but I couldn't see pattern/cycle either, whereas the other two stood out.
These weather records are a useful reminder to the 'extremes driven by AGW' crowd that extremes have happened and will happen again as they are solar/lunar driven. Thinking the weather will be relatively stable from year to year - especially in the British Isles - parked on the edge of the Atlantic conveyor belt & next to mainland Europe, is as ludicrous as AGW theory itself.
This April so far reminds me of the 80's, yet the other day an elderly lady I spoke to said it was 'unusual' as normally in April the showers 'dried quickly from the heat.' To me, that sounds more 90's-00's, as my childhood in the 80's was rain, hail and showers often well into May.
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Snow fell in London yesterday (reported in today's Metro) http://bit.ly/IlzKqt in Berkshire we had a few hail showers with the largest hail I've seen in a while. It reminded me of the hail in May that looked like snow on the ground. The link also contains a a reference to a Met office 18hr yellow warning today for flooded roads and hail (upto 1cm). From the same article "the l/t predictions are for unsettled weather until at least mid May in the North, while the South could improve from about May 7"
I'll update the Met forecasts as they will change a few times, so they can then be compared.
On 18 Apr 2012, JamieM wrote:
I hope it warms up by the end of May as we're cycling from Edinburgh to Ballater in Aberdeenshire! It was bad enough having a northerly wind against us 2 years ago when cycling from Newcastle to Edinburgh. I'll probably get the next forecast to get an idea of what to expect though.
On 18 Apr 2012, Ron Greer wrote:
Though I don't relish fishing my favourite lochs in such a cold May, I sincerely hope that your predictions turn out to be correct and we can get on with planning for the longer term changes that will occur in Solar Cycle 25.
On 18 Apr 2012, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
CARL RUSS MICHAEL CRAIG THANKS AL. CRAIG Superbly useful and interesting as always. I note 1. Met Office mentions 'chilly feel' but then we shouldn't read too much into what they say.... 2. 1935 is 77 years ago = 7x11 ie 7 solar cycles the 7 is a stratospheric wind in ~same month repeat. The 1891 year mentioned is 121 yrs ago = 11 solar cycles....3. 1955 is 57 years ago AGAIN - as the warm Scotland this March = our SLAT 54 to 64 year range for the solar magnetic + lunar beats. I notice your record refers to another event another ~60 years before that which is ~1895 I expect they had 1894 in mind which was in fact colder CET than 1891 .... 4. 1996, 16 yrs ago the weather you list is instructive. With all these things a certain proportion of 'correspondences' IS just chance 'noise' but still fun. Piers
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Here's the Met Office's take on 30 April—13 May (via BBC site)
The changeable theme of Apr looks as though it will be carried forth into May. Although some drier and brighter spells are expected, further rain or showers are likely for most places, accompanied by a chilly feel.
There is the chance that pressure may start to build from the SW towards the middle of May, which would settle things down across S and W parts of the country, & as a result rainfall amounts here may end up lower than avg. The N & E look to stay cloudier & wetter than normal, on balance.
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
1996 16 years ago:
1. An unusually COLD month with ***noted enhanced wind chill***. By the CET value (9.1 C), it was the second COLDEST May of the 20th century, & only just outside the 'top-10' of coldest Mays in the entire series. Mean temperature was below normal throughout the Brit Isles; by 2-3C locally in ***E-Eng***. Notably low day maxima included 7C at Manston (Kent) on the 3rd, 6 degC at Dunkeswell (Devon) on the 17th & 7C at Bournemouth on 18th.
> On the 16th, a VERY COLD end to the day in the SE; TEMPERATURES just about reached 5C & SNOW was reported on the Surrey downs.
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
1955 (57 years ago - a year that's come up recently for the warmth in March also a dry year):
1. On the 17th May 1955, the heaviest SNOWFALL in London in May for about 100y, when snow fell for 2-3 hrs across [most] of Eng, accompanied by a widespread SEVERE GALE. One of the LATEST SNOWFALL events across S Eng known. Roads in the Peak District and S Wales were BLOCKED, & Sheffield reported a local depth of some 2 -4 inches. An 'inch or so' across the Cotswolds & the Chilterns, and also in the centre of Birmingham - for this latter city, it was noted at the time as being the 'worst May SNOWSTORM for 60 years'. This is probably the last time (up to 1999) that there was substantial snow in May in London.)
2. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES of only 5 degC in the S Midlands on the 17th (associated with the snow at 1.)
On 18 Apr 2012, Craig M wrote:
Interesting call Piers. Here's three cold May's: 1935 (77 yrs ago):
1. Widespread SNOW...16th/17th: one of the LATEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL events across S Eng (see also 1955). On the 16th, SNOW 3 inches deep at Cambridge; Falls of SNOW produced 11cm ...as far south as Tiverton (Devon). There were SNOWDRIFTS 2 ft deep in the Yorkshire Dales, & much greater values in the Pennines...Snow fell on the higher ground between Blackburn (Lancashire) and Leeds to a depth of 30cm on the 16th. In W Eng, SNOW is very rare in May, but Lancaster & Southport (both Lancashire) reported snow falling on the 17th. (Apparently the first snow observed in these two low-level locations in May since 1891). At Birmingham, it was the worst May SNOWSTORM for 60 years. SNOWDRIFTS up to 1m high blocked several roads in the Pennines. Snow showers even reached the normally (for May) very mild Isles of Scilly.
http://bit.ly/rUfnx7
On 17 Apr 2012, Michael wrote:
Piers: this is some statement, if it comes off you will be at the mercy of many farmers and allotment owners. Lets hope summer starts soon, don't want warmth to last till December!
On 17 Apr 2012, Russ wrote:
Not the best news for a motorcyclist Piers....thanks for that!.... I've been contemplating fitting a windscreen to cut down on the chill factor a little on colder days, but your news has made my mind up.
On 17 Apr 2012, Carl wrote:
That is some statement Piers and remember Piers statement in November 2010.December 2010 will be exceptionally cold and snowy and quite possibly be the coldest December for 100 years!!!! enough said YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.If it happens ( I have no doubt that it will!!) the last wheel of the CO2 bandwagon will fall off
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