WA News 2009 No 34
WeatherAction World long range Extremes selected Forecast Events
June 09
From Solar Weather Technique parameters prod 22 Feb & updated 25 May.
Videoed 29 May at WeatherAction Press conference, see: Weatheraction Extreme Weather Events for June 09
The success of the three week ahead WeatherAction forecast for the formation of a Tropical cyclone in the Bay Of Bengal in period 24-26 May was also noted there with the formation of the devastating storm Aila (see also below).
Other extreme events such as thunderstorms tornados & whirlwinds are likely in other places around the world in those Solar Weather Impact Periods (SWIPs) which show high frontal activity (ie thunder / floods in places below).
Note on JUNE 2009. This June will see the continuing appearance of concentrated ‘SWIPS’ (Solar Weather Impact Periods) despite continuing general low level of OBSERVABLE solar activity. The continuing ‘quiet’ sun will nevertheless have implications so these forecasts – particularly geographical aspects and shifts - will be watched carefully.
Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0928) Most of Ireland & Britain (espec E/SE) & adjacent Europe (eg Netherlands/ Belgium/ N France). Major thunderstorms hail & local floods with whirlwinds likely (80% confidence).
Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0929) East Australia – Queensland & Nth New South Wales. Deep lows off coast giving strong winds, floods & major coastal storms. (80% confidence).
Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0930) West North Tropical Pacific. Typhoon formation, likely track towards N Philippines &/or Taiwan. Philippines or Taiwan hit 60%. (80% confidence).
Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0931) East Pacific. Typhoon formation in Ocean some way off Mexico, landfall unlikely. (80% confidence).
Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0932) Bay Of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone (or Tropical Depression) formation, likely short lived. Landfall unlikely (80% confidence).
Around 18-21 June 09 (Ew0933) Eat Pacific. Typhoon form, well in Ocean W of Mexico. No land hit. (80% confid).
Around 22-24 June 09 (Ew0934) Central & Central South USA & Central N/E USA & SE Canada, Major thunderstorms. Local floods & widespread ‘killer’ tornadoes especially in Plains (80% confidence).
Around 25-28 June 09 (Ew0935) West North Tropical Pacific. Typhoon formation East of Taiwan / S of Japan. likely track towards East China sea. Land influence likely, land hit 50%. (70% confidence).
{From WeatherAction monthly forecast bulletin)
Devastating Tropical Cyclone Aila confirms WeatherAction forecast
Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Aila formed on 25 May and split into two main ‘heads’ as it pounded parts of India/Bangla Desh and Burma. This confirmed the video warning (5May) from Piers Corbyn for the formation of a Bay Of Bengal Cyclone in the period 24-26 May, which Piers had warned “would result in tragic deaths unless measures are taken”.
The international Red Cross states hundreds were killed and over 5 million were affected in West Bengal alone.
Devastating Tropical Cyclone Aila – Did so many have to die?
Aila is described as one of the worst storms to hit parts of West Bengal in 20 years (http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/EDIS-7SHL7B?OpenDocument ) and other damage is less well documented. At WeatherAction’s Press conference on May 29th Piers said ‘It is tragic that WeatherAction’s warning of this major event (which we designated with the highest, 85%, confidence level) – was not given more attention. If standard meteorology predicted such a storm as long ahead as we did and claimed it was caused by mankind’s CO2 we can be sure more attention would have been taken and large scale evacuations undertaken. The Authorities must put testable science and saving lives before ideology and political opportunism. We need WEXFAD – an international effort for Weather EXtreme Forecasting And Defence.