Comments from Piers
There was incredible flooding in Southern Thailand in the last week of March - which means to build up the rains were extremely heavy in the forecast period 23-27th. See BBC report with dramatic pictures & video http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12916697
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On 08 Apr 2011, reece wrote:
Your fellow long range forecaster albeit - Ken Ring likewise warned us Kiwis that both March and April where times to be heightenly aware of the possibility of greater seismic activity until he was effectively shut-up by our Media. Most Kiwi's only seem to remember his predictions for Mar and don't realise he has warned about April the 18th as well. He warned about the February quake, he warned about the strongest Earthquake in Christchurch since February's big one was on the day he forecasted. So it'll be interesting to see what this month will bring. It took the Ken Ring episode to make me fully realise just how controlled our Media is in this country so I now get my news from other sources.
On 30 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (Twitter address) wrote:
Dusty09, The summary of events above - particularly the Myanmar event - confirms our prediction of enhanced Quake risk 23-27th compared with average events and with the days just before and just after (so far), and that the Solar-lunar betters lunar only. The background is the correct comparison. For weather there are loads of independent demonstrations of of our significant skill & forecasting power - especially of extreme events eg via WeatherAction 'Forecast Accuracy' button . http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0 . Piers
On 29 Mar 2011, Dusty09 wrote:
Piers, Without digging through your previous forecasts, (especially for earthquakes) I fear your work could be dismissed as wordplay or luck... As a control could you provide a randomly generated headline forecast and compare the hit rate of the two. You previously used the MET office for this, but they are no longer obliging.
On 29 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:
THANKS ALL. Yes we are pleased with results with hits (22nd)23rd to 27th analysed above and we will continue to issue TRIAL forecasts of enhanced severe earthquake risk (ie M6.0 and above at least) but as yet we do not say WHERE and at present leave that to others who are having a go (at this DIFFICULT problem). Our timings beat the moon only view. Sue + Mabel (espec):- Yes we are past this enhanced risk window. There is another Top Red (but NOT EXTRA TOP) weather warning period 30-31st March so something for earthquakes as well then but probably not much. On the longer view I think we have to understand that the West USA will get a big hit sometime, it is not immune from what is happening in the rest of the world & these present +coming months of rising EVEN solar cycle just after some very severe quake events is a real danger period. For April we will continue our Solar-Lunar TRIAL forecasts of WORLD enhanced extreme earthquake risk. My advice is know what to do if it happens.
On 28 Mar 2011, Kimberly wrote:
Ann, you may find this link useful in answering your question about comet Elenin: http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/question/?id=14416
On 28 Mar 2011, Sue wrote:
Piers - You've done it again! A 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit Japan near the east coast of Honshu according to the US Geological Survey. Japan issued a tsunami alert. A tsunami of up to 1.6 feet (a half meter) may wash into Miyagi Prefecture. The quake occurred at 7:23 a.m. Monday Japan time (2223 GMT Sunday). See here for more USGS details: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php See here for the Yahoo AP Top Stories on this quake: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110327/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_tsunami_alert
On 27 Mar 2011, Mabel wrote:
Piers! Now that its past the 27th can the people of the America's start relaxing.
On 26 Mar 2011, Paul wrote:
I think the likelyhood of Yellowstone going of is quite remote. There was the Katla scare last year but it never happened.
On 24 Mar 2011, Dave wrote:
Wow! Northeast Burma hit by two 7.0 earthquakes today, 24 March 2011: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7435
On 24 Mar 2011, Jason wrote:
Well done again Mr C! BBC News........ 24 March 2011 Last updated at 15:36 Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print North-east Burma hit by two 7.0 magnitude earthquakes North-east Burma has been rocked by two 7.0 magnitude earthquakes, close to the borders with Laos and Thailand, the US Geological Survey has reported. They struck seconds apart at 1355 GMT and were centred about 70 miles (110 km) from the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai, the agency said. The first quake was shallow, at a depth of 6.2 miles (10km), while the second was much deeper at 142.5 miles (230km). Tremors could be felt as far away as Bangkok and Hanoi. The area where the quakes struck is sparsely populated and remote. The BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok said it could be a while before the extent of the damage is known. More to come......
On 24 Mar 2011, Steve wrote:
There has been a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Burma according to Earthquake watch: Magnitude 6.8 - MYANMAR 2011 March 24 13:55:12 UTC See the following for a report: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Powerful-Earthquake-Strikes-Burma-118579429.html
On 24 Mar 2011, Man Bear Pig wrote:
m6.8 Earthquake in Burma 24/03/2011 http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/4487442-418/6.8-magnitude-quake-strikes-myanmar-1-dead
On 24 Mar 2011, Yamkin wrote:
Hi Piers, Yellowstone volcano is showing some very worrying activity at the moment. http://www.isthisthingon.org/Yellowstone/wrapper.php?file=YFT_SHZ_WY_01.2011032300.gif
On 24 Mar 2011, jay wrote:
Tornado yesterday afternoon (March 23th) in East Tennessee just like you predicted. Amazing Piers. God bless you and your service to the world.
On 24 Mar 2011, Ann wrote:
Piers, you haven't addressed the impact of Elenin, the comet that was discovered last December. It has just entered our solar system. It has a very long tail, which is supposed to come our way in late-September or early October. Unlike recent comets, we are expected to be IN its tail for two or three days. It has recently been in the asteroid belt near Jupiter and has picked up a lot of "junk." I understand that this comet, and one directly behind it, will be between the Earth and the Sun in October. THAT must surely be a factor in your forecasts! What do you think will be the impact of this near-miss comet? Aside from weather, it should certainly have an effect on our electrical grid. Could it shut us down? Thanks, in advance, for your input.
On 24 Mar 2011, Hrv wrote:
I am amazed! I purchased a forecast at the beginning of this month, to test your mettle, and by golly it has stood its ground! Your March 6 issue stated major snow storms for March 23 and the news headline I come across today is...major snow storms! I've passed this information among my circle in hopes of converting at least a single soul to sanity. I wish there were a stock market to play for weather forecasts!
On 23 Mar 2011, Frank St. Germain wrote:
Dear Piers, Jolly-oh for this wonderful website and very useful data! Celestial movements and placements, which affect solar and lunar behavior, not to mention the behavior of water/crust on earth, can mediate calamities on earth. Do you use these celestial data, as well? Thank you, Francis
On 23 Mar 2011, Kiwi in Aus wrote:
Piers, Tornados, extreem ones, quite uncommon in New Zealand. But other events maybe possible.
On 23 Mar 2011, Jeremy wrote:
Hi, Piers, Looking at the very springlike forecast on the Met Office website, your forecast is very different! I hope you are right, so I can gloat to my friends again :-)
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:
Thanks Piers, sorry for having mixed up the numbers. By the way, Fuji erupted five years earlier in 864, ten days of immense destruction! It certainly was an interesting episode. How accurate the calendar references are or the historical texts is another issue. Hope to see more theory from you soon, perhaps a paper?
On 23 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (Twitter address) wrote:
THANKS Hugh. Please keep watching. Note timing on Jogan 869AD isn't quite right. It is 1142 years ago and 22x52 is 1144. That could be OK but a better Hale cycle measure would be 22.1 or 22.2 say 22.15 and 22.15x52=1151 or 1152 which needs Jogan or something like it 9 or 10 years earlier. So a better fit is 103 x single cycle (say 11.07) = 1140yrs. Notice 9.31yrs(half lunar nodal rotation)x123=1145 and 1142 is between 1140 and 1145 interesting but 103 is an odd number not the usually (but not exclusively) favoured even number. However (i) There is more to solar action than Hale (ii) to get a better picture we need to know more about world earthquake events in the decades around 869AD because these active periods are smudged in time and region. We also only know about earthquakes in those times in populated areas there will have been many others. Cheers Piers
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:
Found it interesting to read about the 869 Jōgan earthquake, same place, same disasters, exactly 52 x 22 years ago, give or take some months.
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:
Hmm the sunspot 1176 has just began it's appearance and: 22:53 UTC : M 5.7 2011/03/22 22:12 Depth 1.0 km EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN March 23, 2011 at 07:12:29 AM at epicenter 2 very dangerous strong aftershocks 20 minutes separated and close to Iwaki. The aftershock is especially dangerous because the hypocenter seems to be very shallow 21 km (13 miles) WNW (283°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan and 72 km (45 miles) SSE (165°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan. I hope they are just AFTER shocks, not something else.... Interesting solar graph to consider around that time. Is this gap still because of powered down Japanese recording stations? http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif