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Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR +44(0)207939 9946 From Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320   piers@weatheraction.com  www.weatheraction.com

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APRIL WeatherAction EXTREME WEATHER & MAJOR  Forecast is NOW AVAILABLE via ExtEvRestofWorld  

EXTREME WEATHER AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER IMMINENT around 23rd-27th March warns Piers Corbyn - Updating with news

NOTE on future Earthquake risk forecasts. These trials - so far very successful (see below) - will be included in World Weather Extreme Events forecasts as well as or prior to being made public. Subscriptions now (eg late March) via http://bit.ly/dNhlNo automatically get access to April Extreme Weather & Earthquake Risk (Trial) forecasts inclusive when available at end of March. SUBSCRIPTION TO USA (at present) INCLUDES WORLD EXTREMES + EARTHQUAKES RISK and Vice-Versa 

The very active solar region which emerged from the SE limb of the sun on the morning of 21st March is crackling with dangerous activity including extreme UV radiation and up to 50Mev proton bursts and its appearance along with other active regions on the sun fits our WeatherAction.com long-range WARNING for significant weather extremes and earthquakes in the period around 23rd-27th March, issued during February.

WATCH SOLAR ACTION DEVELOP...
Solar activity details: http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=03&day=21&year=2011&view=view ( = http://bit.ly/h13CuA  use forward button to get to next day) and http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/   2nd graph down purple blip is 50Mev. The other levels are different colours. Notice 1Mev is staying high on 22nd also.  Note the Spaceweather link already shows a solar wind stream from a coronal hole will hit Earth 23/24th March, the newly reported activity on the sun will lead to earth hits following that. Solar wind hit 527km/sec - that's fast on 23rd March.   Geomagnetic Activity - should increase in 23-27th periods - See http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

We warned of these dangers - with weather event detail for USA, West Europe, Australia, New Zealand and BanglaDesh in forecasts issued around the end of February and repeated on the posting "15/16...March THE DANGEROUS TIMES THE WORLD IS IN...."  

WATCH FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES...

Piers Corbyn says "The recent extreme Earthquake events in the world were preceded by extreme events on the sun - specifically X level solar flares and related proton bursts. It appears to us that it is always the case that extreme weather and earthquake events are preceded by extreme events on the sun and historically proton events which are usually associated with X flares are an especially reliable warning of extreme weather, storm formation and earthquake events. We have no forecast of specifically where the earthquake events are most likely except to say that the Pacific 'ring of fire' is very vulnerable and new serious earthquake events in Japan and /or the West USA are very possible. Some other researchers** have also been making warnings of earthquake events around the present period. My main risk periods are a bit later than theirs because although lunar tidal effects (such as 'Supermoon' 19th March) are important we find the solar hits are crucial determinants. **Links to these forecasts of others which include comments on possible regions are available via the link above -  

EARTHQUAKE WATCH -  More Significant - Magnitude 6.0 or above shown in Red - LINK http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php    On 22nd (Ok for investigation given approx timings especially of Earthquakes) M=6.1 mid-Atlantic ridge is interesting as well as 4 quakes in Japan bigger than M=6 with 2 of M=6.6 . There was only one of M 6.0 or above (it was 6.1 in Japan) in previous 4 days 18-21 Mar. M 6.5 or above is probably more than an aftershock. For comparison the devastating New Zealand Earthquake of 21st Feb 2011 was M=6.3 but rather near the surface

 13.55z24Mar M6.8  CONFIRMED PiersCorbyn's LongRange Extreme Quake warning 23-27Mar   HERE IS RUSSIA TV VIDEO OF THIS QUAKE @ showing Huge CracksRoads+destruction

25th Mar M6.4 (USG) off East Japan http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0002bc9.php

27th New off EJapanQuake M6.5 (BBC & CNN figure*)+ (small)Tsunami Warning http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12877198 USG:27th 22:24UTC *M6.1 http://1.usa.gov/dWwaRN We dont know why USG say 6.1 while BBC & CNN say 6.5

OVERALL THE EXTREME QUAKE DANGER WARNING FOR ~23-27 WAS WELL CONFIRMED. For information M6.0 or above occur on average somewhere in the world just under 3 times a week and M6.8 or above is rare in any 5 day (or 7 day period if one day each side is allowed), for example there were no M6.8 or above quakes in the preceding 30 days other than in the Japan area on 11th March.  There were no M6.0 or above quakes anywhere in the world (including Japan area) on 18th, 19th, 20th or 21st. There were 5 on 22nd (4 Japan and 1 Mid Atlantic ridge) and in 23rd to 27th there were 4 (3 Japan and the M6.8 in Myanmar). 

The period 23-27th (or more accurately we now see 22-27 for the M6 or above but not the biggest one) therefore well described a sudden rise in extreme earthquake events around the world both in terms of new parts of the world other than Japan and in terms of an increase in activity around Japan compared with the 4 preceding days. 

SIGNIFICANTLY THIS IS A BETTER RESULT THAN THE LUNAR TIDAL ONLY  WARNINGS which predicted a large increase close to the stunning* 'Supermoon' of 19th March, yet as we advised key solar based factors are also needed for earthquake triggering and these wouldn't significantly come till ~23rd-27th, and appear to have started being effective on 22nd and had the biggest effect in this time period on 24th. Further activity just after ie 28th should not be ruled out because of the 'blurred'nature of Earthquake responses to the solar-lunar forcing.  

(* Great pics http://www.space.com/11179-supermoon-photos-full-moon-2011-skywatchers.html) 

WATCH EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS....  

"The weather events are expected in two waves ~23/24th and ~26/27th and extreme earthquake events risk is significantly enhanced all through this period 23-27th but probably more enhanced later with high risk continuing a day or so after 27th.

"The long range predicted weather events in the double period 23-27th March include:

- Snow deluges / cold blasts in N/ NE Britain & NW Europe COMMENT. There was a cold plunge (see report below) & strong winds in North Sea as predicted but there were not snow deluges

- USA A double whammy of major snow & blizzards (esp 25-27th) Great Lakes & West thereof; Tornadoes in South.     CONFIRMED 23/24th see below 

- Australia (23/24) Tropical Cyclone formation likely East of Queensland 

CONFIRMED TC Bune formed 23rd 18z http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_pacific/2011/BUNE/track.dat and http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/sp201119_5day.html#a_topad

 New Zealand (North Island) Tornado possible prob 23/24th.  - Result unknown

Bangladesh Tornado formation risk is high in 26/27th - Result unknown

FULL DETAILS of these forecasts for the whole of March are available via http://bit.ly/dNhlNo   . New subscribers now (late March) also will get access to the April forecasts when available at the end of March at no further charge. 

WEATHER NEWS UPDATES:

USA 23March (as on twitter) MORE confirmation of W-Action 23-24March  warnings. WeatherChannel: "242 severe reports as of 8:30pm EDT, most in a day since February 28th". The reports were of large hail, damaging winds, tornado developments etc in various parts.   W-Action NorthUSA LongRange fc23-24Mar confirmed AccuW News SnowEnding, Icy Areas Remain Across Northeast  

N/NE Britain & West Europe 23March. Short range forecast maps show cold plunge starting and devloping over next few days in W Europe and N/NE Britain http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,.gif,bracka,brack0,brack0a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4   Note S / SW parts and  Ireland will be warmer

ADDITIONAL EXTREME EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD 23-27th March

There was incredible flooding in Southern Thailand in the last week of March - which means to build up the rains were extremely heavy in the forecast period 23-27th. See BBC report with dramatic pictures & video http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12916697 
Comments submitted - 23 Add your comment
On 08 Apr 2011, reece wrote:

Your fellow long range forecaster albeit - Ken Ring likewise warned us Kiwis that both March and April where times to be heightenly aware of the possibility of greater seismic activity until he was effectively shut-up by our Media. Most Kiwi's only seem to remember his predictions for Mar and don't realise he has warned about April the 18th as well. He warned about the February quake, he warned about the strongest Earthquake in Christchurch since February's big one was on the day he forecasted. So it'll be interesting to see what this month will bring. It took the Ken Ring episode to make me fully realise just how controlled our Media is in this country so I now get my news from other sources.
On 30 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (Twitter address) wrote:

Dusty09, The summary of events above - particularly the Myanmar event - confirms our prediction of enhanced Quake risk 23-27th compared with average events and with the days just before and just after (so far), and that the Solar-lunar betters lunar only. The background is the correct comparison. For weather there are loads of independent demonstrations of of our significant skill & forecasting power - especially of extreme events eg via WeatherAction 'Forecast Accuracy' button . http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0 . Piers
On 29 Mar 2011, Dusty09 wrote:

Piers, Without digging through your previous forecasts, (especially for earthquakes) I fear your work could be dismissed as wordplay or luck... As a control could you provide a randomly generated headline forecast and compare the hit rate of the two. You previously used the MET office for this, but they are no longer obliging.
On 29 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (twitter address) wrote:

THANKS ALL. Yes we are pleased with results with hits (22nd)23rd to 27th analysed above and we will continue to issue TRIAL forecasts of enhanced severe earthquake risk (ie M6.0 and above at least) but as yet we do not say WHERE and at present leave that to others who are having a go (at this DIFFICULT problem). Our timings beat the moon only view. Sue + Mabel (espec):- Yes we are past this enhanced risk window. There is another Top Red (but NOT EXTRA TOP) weather warning period 30-31st March so something for earthquakes as well then but probably not much. On the longer view I think we have to understand that the West USA will get a big hit sometime, it is not immune from what is happening in the rest of the world & these present +coming months of rising EVEN solar cycle just after some very severe quake events is a real danger period. For April we will continue our Solar-Lunar TRIAL forecasts of WORLD enhanced extreme earthquake risk. My advice is know what to do if it happens.
On 28 Mar 2011, Kimberly wrote:

Ann, you may find this link useful in answering your question about comet Elenin: http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/question/?id=14416
On 28 Mar 2011, Sue wrote:

Piers - You've done it again! A 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit Japan near the east coast of Honshu according to the US Geological Survey. Japan issued a tsunami alert. A tsunami of up to 1.6 feet (a half meter) may wash into Miyagi Prefecture. The quake occurred at 7:23 a.m. Monday Japan time (2223 GMT Sunday). See here for more USGS details: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php See here for the Yahoo AP Top Stories on this quake: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110327/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_tsunami_alert
On 27 Mar 2011, Mabel wrote:

Piers! Now that its past the 27th can the people of the America's start relaxing.
On 26 Mar 2011, Paul wrote:

I think the likelyhood of Yellowstone going of is quite remote. There was the Katla scare last year but it never happened.
On 24 Mar 2011, Dave wrote:

Wow! Northeast Burma hit by two 7.0 earthquakes today, 24 March 2011: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7435
On 24 Mar 2011, Jason wrote:

Well done again Mr C! BBC News........ 24 March 2011 Last updated at 15:36 Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print North-east Burma hit by two 7.0 magnitude earthquakes North-east Burma has been rocked by two 7.0 magnitude earthquakes, close to the borders with Laos and Thailand, the US Geological Survey has reported. They struck seconds apart at 1355 GMT and were centred about 70 miles (110 km) from the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai, the agency said. The first quake was shallow, at a depth of 6.2 miles (10km), while the second was much deeper at 142.5 miles (230km). Tremors could be felt as far away as Bangkok and Hanoi. The area where the quakes struck is sparsely populated and remote. The BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok said it could be a while before the extent of the damage is known. More to come......
On 24 Mar 2011, Steve wrote:

There has been a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Burma according to Earthquake watch: Magnitude 6.8 - MYANMAR 2011 March 24 13:55:12 UTC See the following for a report: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Powerful-Earthquake-Strikes-Burma-118579429.html
On 24 Mar 2011, Man Bear Pig wrote:

m6.8 Earthquake in Burma 24/03/2011 http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/4487442-418/6.8-magnitude-quake-strikes-myanmar-1-dead
On 24 Mar 2011, Yamkin wrote:

Hi Piers, Yellowstone volcano is showing some very worrying activity at the moment. http://www.isthisthingon.org/Yellowstone/wrapper.php?file=YFT_SHZ_WY_01.2011032300.gif
On 24 Mar 2011, jay wrote:

Tornado yesterday afternoon (March 23th) in East Tennessee just like you predicted. Amazing Piers. God bless you and your service to the world.
On 24 Mar 2011, Ann wrote:

Piers, you haven't addressed the impact of Elenin, the comet that was discovered last December. It has just entered our solar system. It has a very long tail, which is supposed to come our way in late-September or early October. Unlike recent comets, we are expected to be IN its tail for two or three days. It has recently been in the asteroid belt near Jupiter and has picked up a lot of "junk." I understand that this comet, and one directly behind it, will be between the Earth and the Sun in October. THAT must surely be a factor in your forecasts! What do you think will be the impact of this near-miss comet? Aside from weather, it should certainly have an effect on our electrical grid. Could it shut us down? Thanks, in advance, for your input.
On 24 Mar 2011, Hrv wrote:

I am amazed! I purchased a forecast at the beginning of this month, to test your mettle, and by golly it has stood its ground! Your March 6 issue stated major snow storms for March 23 and the news headline I come across today is...major snow storms! I've passed this information among my circle in hopes of converting at least a single soul to sanity. I wish there were a stock market to play for weather forecasts!
On 23 Mar 2011, Frank St. Germain wrote:

Dear Piers, Jolly-oh for this wonderful website and very useful data! Celestial movements and placements, which affect solar and lunar behavior, not to mention the behavior of water/crust on earth, can mediate calamities on earth. Do you use these celestial data, as well? Thank you, Francis
On 23 Mar 2011, Kiwi in Aus wrote:

Piers, Tornados, extreem ones, quite uncommon in New Zealand. But other events maybe possible.
On 23 Mar 2011, Jeremy wrote:

Hi, Piers, Looking at the very springlike forecast on the Met Office website, your forecast is very different! I hope you are right, so I can gloat to my friends again :-)
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:

Thanks Piers, sorry for having mixed up the numbers. By the way, Fuji erupted five years earlier in 864, ten days of immense destruction! It certainly was an interesting episode. How accurate the calendar references are or the historical texts is another issue. Hope to see more theory from you soon, perhaps a paper?
On 23 Mar 2011, Piers_Corbyn (Twitter address) wrote:

THANKS Hugh. Please keep watching. Note timing on Jogan 869AD isn't quite right. It is 1142 years ago and 22x52 is 1144. That could be OK but a better Hale cycle measure would be 22.1 or 22.2 say 22.15 and 22.15x52=1151 or 1152 which needs Jogan or something like it 9 or 10 years earlier. So a better fit is 103 x single cycle (say 11.07) = 1140yrs. Notice 9.31yrs(half lunar nodal rotation)x123=1145 and 1142 is between 1140 and 1145 interesting but 103 is an odd number not the usually (but not exclusively) favoured even number. However (i) There is more to solar action than Hale (ii) to get a better picture we need to know more about world earthquake events in the decades around 869AD because these active periods are smudged in time and region. We also only know about earthquakes in those times in populated areas there will have been many others. Cheers Piers
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:

Found it interesting to read about the 869 Jōgan earthquake, same place, same disasters, exactly 52 x 22 years ago, give or take some months.
On 23 Mar 2011, Hugh Evan wrote:

Hmm the sunspot 1176 has just began it's appearance and: 22:53 UTC : M 5.7 2011/03/22 22:12 Depth 1.0 km EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN March 23, 2011 at 07:12:29 AM at epicenter 2 very dangerous strong aftershocks 20 minutes separated and close to Iwaki. The aftershock is especially dangerous because the hypocenter seems to be very shallow 21 km (13 miles) WNW (283°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan and 72 km (45 miles) SSE (165°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan. I hope they are just AFTER shocks, not something else.... Interesting solar graph to consider around that time. Is this gap still because of powered down Japanese recording stations? http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif