Met Office 'barbecue summer' forecast "seriously misleading"
After Met office ‘sizzling summer’ forecast the UK was ‘under water’ - July, 2007.
Met Office long range forecast skill remains negative
(*http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8026668.stm )
A stroll along the shore at Sandbank, Poole where the sea froze on 8 Jan
In contrast to the Met Offices failed forecasting methodology, which seem to be more rooted in political propaganda for ‘Global Warming’ than science; WeatherAction’s Solar Weather Technique forecasts correctly predicted the extremely wet summers of 2007 and 2008 and the ice and snow crisis for the winter of 2008/09 from months ahead. In terms of forecasting power for these three most extreme seasons for a few years the MetOffice get a ‘Forecast Power score*’ of the lowest possible at minus 100%, whereas WeatherAction’s SWT scores at least +500%
[*Forecast power is % winnings [minus for losses] on (imaginary) bets placed at fair odds on forecasts. The Met Office score is minus 100% because all their forecasts failed. The SWT scores highly because it successfully predicted the extreme & unusual conditions of all three seasons.]In a recent letter to UK Environment Minister, Hilary Benn (http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=28&c=1) Piers pointed out that Met Office long range forecasts for summers 07 & 08 and winter 08-09 were dismal failures and had disarmed the Govt, the emergency services and the public at great human and financial cost. He urged the Minister drop their use and instead ‘to put science before ideology, public safety before politics and as the Prime Minister has often said use all the best knowledge available for the greatest good’. “The public are clamouring for integrity and accountab-ility in banking and politics. It’s time to also call for what passes as ‘science’ to meet these same standards”, said Piers.
Summers 07 & 08 & Winter 08/09
Report of Met Office forecast for SUMMER 2007: Britain will sizzle in 100°F – “Gardens could eventually even be changed beyond recognition as tropical plants, cacti and palms replace traditional British country blooms” http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/3933
Result: Weather Actions ‘Floody summer’ long range forecast was confirmed. It was the wettest summer for the whole of the UK since the rainfall series began in 1914: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2007/index.html
Met Office forecast for SUMMER 2008 (issued 3 April 2008) stated: “The risk of exceptional rainfall, as seen last summer, is assessed as very low at this stage.” :http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2008/forecast.html
Result for Summer 2008. Weather Action very wet summer forecast confirmed. All 3 summer months had above average rainfall across the UK, with August being the wettest month. Well above average summer rainfall across most areas, with parts of Northern Ireland and eastern Scotland having around double their average rainfall. See: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/summer.html .
There were also devastating floods at times in Scotland, North & South Ireland & England.
Met Office forecast for WINTER 2008/09: ‘Milder and drier winter predicted’ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7635513.stm
Result - Weather Action cold forecast confirmed. The sea froze at Poole & UK Road salt ran out: 6 Jan: Bitter winter will carry on: http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=21&c=1 WA NEWS 2009 No 11 5th Feb - UK Road Salt WILL run out: http://climaterealists.com/news.php?id=2735
Other Links
Letters to MPs & ministers including graphs showing general decline in world temperatures this century & links to letters to Gordon Brown 2007 & 2008 re WeatherAction long range forecasts: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/letter_to_ministers.pdf Detailed WA forecasts available.
PowerPoint & Video of Piers Corbyn's & Other Presentations at International Climate Change Conference New York 8-10 March 2009 www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/proceedings.html - section V track 1 see slide 28 for world Temperature forecast to 2030. Scroll through for speeches by Prof Bob Carter, Prof Richard Lindzen, Lord Monckton and others.
Environmental Effects of Increased Carbon Dioxide (Robinson, Robinson & Soon) : http://www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22434.pdf
World cooling has set-in warns astrophysicist - BBC & 'Global Warming apologists' challenged to end 'cover-up' (http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3307&linkbox=true )
MUST SEE VIDEO: Weatheraction.Com Meeting & Warning of Extreme Weather Events for April 2009 - YouTube http://climaterealists.com/news.php?id=3131
© . Weather Action & Piers Corbyn ™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without specific agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Newspaper or media use is welcome but may only be from a specific issued statement from WeatherAction or agreed with the newspaper or media concerned. The news content of this bulletin is entirely public. Weather Action’s forecast skill has been independently peer-review verified in the Journal of Atmospheric & Solar-Terrestrial Physics Vol 63 (2001) p29-34, Dennis Wheeler, Univ of Sunderland.]. Research Reports by Weather Action / Piers Corbyn on Solar Activity / Climate Change/Global warming available including at the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Institute of Physics, London. and New York E:piers@weatheraction.com for latest or visit www.weatheraction.com or WeatherAction’s European and Global site: www.lowefo.com , WeatherAction, Delta House, 175-177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HR. Tel 020 7939 9946