On 02 Feb 2011, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
Rob, Yes Jan has not been in the three coldest in 100yrs but is close to normal CET and cold in Scotland. We discussed it at our WeatherAction meeting on 28th and have done video on it - See: (as twitter post) Two new vids taken 28Jan: Dec+Jan Interesting Review with jet stream / blocking chat; Latest in Climate Wars VIA http://bit.ly/hRB9GN . . . There are also points in the Feb forecast to subscribers as on the video. The issue is stratospheric winds not being considered enough. . . Thanks Piers
On 02 Feb 2011, Rob wrote:
Not intended as forecast-bashing but I am curious as to what in your opinion happened to make January turn out such a non-event, weather-wise? The CET came out slightly below average but it was nowhere near being one of the coldest months of the past 100 years.
On 14 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
John, Sceptic, Marie,
Thanks. Yes good note but do also note Bastardi deals in shorter range than we do and he was incorrect about Xmas UK, and if he actually did say 'no more serious cold in Europe this winter' we are very confident that that will also be contradicted by the weather.
SCOTLAND Yes our temperature forecast has been essentially correct 85% of the time this winter (see 14-1-11 posting) for central England but even better than that for Scotland.
FLOODS - we did have them in the 6-10th as part of thaw floods. In this period 11-14th they do follow from our TOP RED WARNING with westerly flow (which was originally N'ly flow & blizzards not floods) - the same Extra Activity which gave our forecasted Connecticut blizzard, & new Tropical storms now off Australia, (and other extreme deluges around the world).
Piers
On 14 Jan 2011, Marie wrote:
we still have snow lying from the first fall in November ( central Scotland) , yes it is mild now, a bit too mild for my liking, we are now getting forecasts for high winds & rain, this always happens when there is major weather abroad, we seem to get the backlash of it, but i know myself the cold & snow will return, they really did under estimate the snow fall here, i can tell you, never was shown on the news the amount that we had!!!
loving your work Piers !
On 14 Jan 2011, Sceptic wrote:
Thank you for taking the time to respond. At the moment, it is flooding for England and Wales that seems to be the most pressing concern, and this doesn't appear to have been forewarned by anyone.
On 14 Jan 2011, John Thorpe wrote:
Piers, sorry use millennia tag everywhere and it's automatic. The CET now looks to be heading above normal and we won't see anything cold until the high builds next week. If that high drifts north we get easterlies but it looks like it will be fairly short lived, over us, and drifting south west later - bring us back to westerlies toppling in from the north.
Bastardi seems to have called this month well, and certainly once these blocks get broken they tend not to re-establish very easily. Your red warnings are still working on severity of weather, but it seems to be heavy rain and potential floods rather than being buried in snow.
On 13 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Millennia,
NB REAL NAMES PREFERRED.
No don't assume that the mild is here to stay. See my remarks on 9th and 10th. Serious cold will return, and re other question (from Skeptic) on averages for Central England (the measure we use); yes true some supercold will be needed - that is not impossible, but more difficult yes. Note however our forecast for Central England Jan av Temps to be similar to Dec ( ie about -1C) is not so extreme in relative terms because Jan averages are lower. Further Commentary soon. Thanks Piers
On 13 Jan 2011, Millennia wrote:
I think we definitely have to put January to bed for the UK as there just doesn't seem scope for the block to re-establish. You can't win 'em all I suppose and the US predictions have really come in, but perhaps forecasting for somewhere the size of Florida way in advance is a problem anyway as a shift of 200 miles can totally change the resulting weather for a great part of the country. Imagine if the cold had been 200 miles further south this month - that would have been a lot of snow over northern England major disruption. So near but so far!
On 13 Jan 2011, Sceptic wrote:
>>.we expect with 80% confidence that much of Britain (eg Central England) to be in the three coldest Januaries in the last 100 years.
That's really going to take some unusually severe cold days and night in the last two weeks to counter the near average of the first fortnight - you really maintain that's still going to happen?
On 12 Jan 2011, Not supplied wrote:
thankyou for your update mr corbyn. it now appears from later next week the cold will return. in your opnion will we see the heavy snow throughout febuary? and later next week as the met office dont seem to have a clue. thankyou once again for your help in this matter.
On 11 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Daniel, YES - See comments below. Re MetO & others they would say that wouldn't they?. Thanks Piers
On 11 Jan 2011, daniel wrote:
hi piers was just wondering the jan forecast you made for cold and blizzards across the uk is it still going to happen as the met office and other forecasters dont seem to think so.
On 10 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Orjan, Yes in addition to the points about the coming weeks just below your question:- As you will see in our detailed forecast we stated for 6-10 Jan (timing to 1 day) "Becoming briefly mild or even very mild in Ireand and far SouthWest....Remaining very cold in North/East...active low pressures attack from West...Southerly winds. This is essentially confirmed. I notice the mild has gone further north than our most likely scenario said - although we also said in the Euro maps "Main Uncertainties: Penetration of milder air from West"; but it has been noticably slower to advance than MetOffice forecasts and they keep leaving Scotland cold when the day before they said it would turn mild. It is unwise to assume this expected by us mild burst - even if extended through the next weather period in our forecast - means it will continue. Recall 1947 had similar in fact even mllder burst(s) in early Jan then it got very cold in late Jan and Feb 1947 was the coldest Feb in many records.
On 10 Jan 2011, Dr Ross Wilson wrote:
Dear Mr Corbyn
I have been very interested in your work since I saw you in "The Great Global Warming Swindle".
I recently read some work stating that NASA thinks the Sun may have an iron core surrounded by plasma on the surface, which gave Galileo the impression the Sun was composed solely of gas. What are your thoughts on this theory and does it fit well with your theory on magnetic interaction between the Earth and the Sun?
Furthermore, I have a feeling this global warming lark is never going to die even though scientific opinion is moving away from AGW. Will there be any salvation from green taxes and that self righteous moron Al Gore?
Yours Sincerely
Dr Ross Wilson.
On 10 Jan 2011, Orjan wrote:
Piers, the Met Office have predicted 2wks of warm weather for the UK - I see you have forecasted a return to cold conditions from around the coming wkend. Was the weather coming up from the South unexpected by your model?
Latest Met Office prediction as of today..
'The balmy conditions will last for around two weeks before temperatures drop again, bringing the threat of a return of snow at the end of January, the Met Office predicted'
On 09 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Thanks to all,
Matt. Joe often makes good medium-long range comments but I get the impression he believes in model maps too much. For example he said UK would turn mild by Xmas day whereas we stuck to our extremely cold (less cold W Ire) and snow. It was extremely cold - as you will recall also see News in Reports carried in our Jan 30day forecast bulletin.
On the current (9Jan) situation the mild now in South & SW is as we predicted. Standard maps show high pressure over Brit & Ire on 11th and then they say all this gets KO'ed very rapidly by mild flow from South. We expect:
EITHER The Our 11-14 period (80% confidence in our long range) holds and the milder air is forced to stay South giving colder than standard maps;
OR The mild largely gets through but it then turns much colder 15-17 Jan (85% confid). We also have continuing cold/very cold+snow later.
Whatever way Joe's 'No more cold plunges' this winter assertion will not succeed I say with 99% confidence.
Thanks Piers
On 09 Jan 2011, matt wrote:
Hey Piers when do you think the models will show the cold you have forecast to come back they dont show anything very cold also joe basterdi says no more cold reloads this winter in uk etc
On 07 Jan 2011, Not supplied wrote:
not supplied
On 07 Jan 2011, Matt D wrote:
I would be interested to know how the recent "warmer" years relate to the average sea temperatures around GB. And if there are more blocking patterns emerging, will this cause a drop in sea temperatures which will then have a cumulative affect on land temperatures and weather patterns? Or are sea temperatures limited in affecting weather patterns?
On 06 Jan 2011, Ian P wrote:
I'm also wondering about this, when we used to have colder winters years back with lots of snow, was this also caused by blocking?
On 05 Jan 2011, Orjan Theurer wrote:
I was also wondering about this. I understand that Piers forecasts that global temperatures are falling and will continue to do so for a number of yrs but will this directly affect our winters. Can we expect more extreme winters in the coming yrs due to these blocking patterns?
On 05 Jan 2011, paul wrote:
I was wondering if these winter high pressure blocking patterns are going to become more common in the coming years and how this will effect North sea temperatures.
I have just read a book by Ian Plimer called "Heaven and Earth (global warming: the missing science) and am suprised to find that Al Gore is cashing in on man made global warming and the how statistics can be manipulated to get the result you want.
On 05 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Paul, THAT is in fact just what our long range detailed forecast says - a milder (even very mild in SW/S & Ire) spell with N/NE still cold for 6th-10th. You cannot from that just produced computer model view say anything about the rest of January. The situation will change again to generally colder from around 12th. See our full forecast via my note below. Thanks Piers
On 05 Jan 2011, Paul wrote:
It does'nt currently look like January is going to be that cold. The UK seems to be stuck between mild air and cold air and the high pressure blocking seems to have weakened allowing more depression up from the south. Looking at metbrief asxx 48-120hr ahead shows the 528 thickness generally over northern uk and scotland and no significant cold air coming back over the uk bringing a freeze.
On 05 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Rob, Yes they always say that. Standard models persistently fail to predict blocks. Our January forecast is in three basic sections which are so far going well (with overall proviso sometimes much milder in (W/SW) Ireland & SW / South England):- 1-5th COLD & SNOWY with some blizzards/snow & low temperatures. 6-10th Something of a split - Much milder in SW / South but staying cold in Scotland & North/East. 12th onwards generally more extreme wintry weather.... 1-5th has been consistently colder with more snow than Met forecasts of 2 days ahead. Interestingly standard Met is today (5th) putting the 6th-10th as colder a bit further South than we expected, so it will be interesting to see what happens in detail - I suspect the snow band now (on 5th 1pm) forecast in short range in the South on 6th will be a bit further North. For the full 8 weather periods maps & graphs in the detailed forecast on 6 pages go to 'Purchase Forecasts' button on weatheraction.com home page. Thanks Piers
On 05 Jan 2011, Rob wrote:
I was wondering what your view of the January forecast is now? The met office is saying there won't be a gulf stream blocking pattern and things don't seem to be as drastic as you indicated they could be (yet).
On 05 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Orjan,
YES. We do long range forecasts and what we say from months ahead is normally accurate 85% of the time to timing of a day. On occasions eg 3 days ahead when our view and standard Met views are pretty different what often happens is a compromise between the two. Our solar factors statements allow a user to modify short range forecasts to improve snow / rain intensities where appropriate just one or two days ahead. Standard Meteorology procedures could be modified to get forecasts as good as some hours ahead produced maybe a week ahead but they would have to co-operate and so far they have shown no interest in making advances. We explained some of these possibilities at our conference in Imperial College in October 2009 - see video(s) linked in our New Year Message and also useful links in WeatherAction News 34 via News Archive.
On 05 Jan 2011, Orjan Theurer wrote:
Hi Piers. Congratulations on your excellent work...I've been reading a lot of your material lately and have to say I'm beginning to come around to your way of thinking. However, is it fair to say that your teams forecast accuracy tends to be more accurate in predicting extreme weather events rather than day to day forecasts. If the BBC ever did away with the Met Office (here's hoping..) and adopted yourselves, would your techniques allow daily guides?
On 05 Jan 2011, Matt wrote:
Thank you piers and the rest of your team for creating such accurate weather forecasts in the UK, its very nice to have a reliable weather forecast unlike the met office which gets it totally wrong unless they are predicting 10 minutes ahead, i only wish more people knew about this website but i guess you dont get all the funds like the met office, they should scrap the met office and let you deal with the weather, it would be a much better place!
keep up your excellent work!
On 05 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Mr Meyrick, We usually ignore factually strained or overtly churlish offerings. You nevertheless merit response.
You refer to "two waves of blizzards sweeping across the country on 25-27 Dec and 29-30 Dec". You need to consider the actual forecast properly. We had expected more snow but your attack is somewhat misinformed and selective. NOTES: 1 The system we expected was present but shifted a bit East so heaviest snow was in Europe (fcst well confirmed there). 2 Our forecast detail issued 29 Nov included extreme cold especially 25th then less cold. THIS WAS TOTALLY CONFIRMED whereas standard Met had mild until the extreme cold was upon us - and even underestimated that from 24hrs ahead. 3 We NEVER said the whole country. Our forecast map had 'mostly dry (snow flurries)' Scotland, N England, N Wales & NW Midlands - CONFIRMED. 4 Heavy snow expected more in South + "heaviest in East" was not heavy but was more in East +sufficient (with Scot showers) to WIN Xmas snow bets!
On 05 Jan 2011, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Paul - Re Cosmic Rays. Yes I am familiar with the experiment which reproduces somewhat conditions of cloud chambers which used to be used to track high energy particles and I have met Svensmark twice and greatly respect his pioneering work to show charged particles can nucleate cloud formation & his willingness to discuss matters (unlike CO2 warmists). HOWEVER our findings are that the agency connecting solar activity & earth's weather is NOT cosmic rays (if they have any role it is prob less than one third of 1% of that of solar charged particles). This is because the MAIN OBSERVED world temperature signal is the 22yr magnetic (direction) cycle which modulates solar particle connectivity. Under the Svensmark theory cosmic rays, which are modulated by the SIZE of solar activity and magnetic field, not magnetic direction would follow an 11 year cycle but that is hardly seen in world temperatures. SEE Climate Realists ongoing link "World cooling... http://bit.ly/2a96w9 Thanks
On 05 Jan 2011, Bob Meyrick wrote:
What happened to the two waves of blizzards sweeping across the country on 25-27 Dec and 29-30 Dec that you warned about? Didn't happen, did it?
"Please note that this site is fully moderated and that unsuitable comments will not be published." Ah, that means you won't publish anything other than sycophantic praise. Pathetic.
On 04 Jan 2011, Paul Harris wrote:
Hi Piers
Have you come across the CLOUD experiment? The chap running it has given a lecture at CERN http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073 and it seems to me he is saying what you have been saying regarding cosmic rays and the sun’s sunspots and the interaction with the earth’s magnetic field etc. All the correlations seem to fit perfectly when one looks at climate and these cosmic rays, irrespective of the time period as well. It could well be that eventually they are going to have to admit your were right all along! Keep up the good work.
On 01 Jan 2011, Hutch1200 wrote:
Well, maybe I can heat my home through this coming record cold winter with my "carbon offset certificates" I bought from AlGore! Are we still allowed pieces of flint? But seriously, thank you, as others have stated, for getting the truth out there. It is refreshing for me to have ammo (oops!) when I TRY to have logical discussions w/ these alarmists. Please Sir(s), keep up the good fight.
On 01 Jan 2011, harryb wrote:
Keep up the good work and spread the word. It is about time that the whole Global Warming fraud gets exposed a long with the politicians, scientists and news makers who perpetuate the scam
On 01 Jan 2011, Bilal Key wrote:
Thank you Dr.Corbyn for that analysis have a blessed and prosperous New Year.
On 01 Jan 2011, Carl wrote:
Firstly happy new year to Peirs and everybody connected to Weatheraction.com and i have noticed many more comments on this site lately and congratulate Piers on this as more and more people seem to think that Global warming is turning into Global Con and again if you want a true weather forecast then subscribe like me as everything Piers has forecast has happened and January looks very interesting
On 01 Jan 2011, Ian Pickering wrote:
Dear Piers . Im comforted by your comments and admire you for sticking the "TRUTH" in front of the general public in the light of this nonsense that scientists, Politicians, and the media of man made "Global Warning" Its certainly had to reinvent itself over the years, first the "Greenhouse Effect," then" Global Warming" and now" Climate Change." Its all lies and spin as you say and any one with a sort of sense and theres a lot out there can see the so called "science" behind this man made Climate Change is corrupt and deeply flawed. The "Gravy Chain" Scientists as you have mentioned need to be brought to justice, and the only truth behind this total nonsense is that Politicians, Media, Scientists are making loads of Green Money for themselves and making sure there pockets are Full. Ive been interested in Weather since I can remember and have my own website http://worcestershireweather.com/ and next year I will be putting some thoughts togeather on this so called Climate Change myth.
On 01 Jan 2011, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Honest green measures:
1. Ensuring building construction standards ensure that new houses built are warm, well insulated and not insufferably hot in summer.
2. Recycling organic matter, wood, glass, etc.
3. Sustainable transportation.
I can't think of any other proper ones. It covers dwellings, getting about and not wasting the things we have finished with.
Green meteorology would be most useful in those parts of the world where water management is most critical. In this country, for all our hoohah, droughts of longer than 18 months are truly rare. Ditto flooding cycles.
On 01 Jan 2011, Pete McLaughlin wrote:
Excellent goal. Down with politicized weather report manufacturing!
I have often laughed at Global Warmists who can't predict if it will rain a week from now trying to tell me that average temps will be 1 degree higher 100 years from now. LOL!!
Lets have Weather Action Reports on the News programs and get real accuracy in weather reporting where it never has existed.
Sincerely,
Pete
On 01 Jan 2011, Gerry Bollman wrote:
How refreshing to find a scientist who uses quality data to confirm or reject hypotheses.
Please keep up your good work and know that you have solid support from the sensible people of this world.
On 31 Dec 2010, Ernie M Firkin wrote:
Thank you for being in front of the weather, you are a GOD send , keep on exposing the phonies
|
