Comments from Piers

(15th April) The flanks of a major Coronal Mass Ejection - a massive solar explosion which blasted a whole section of the solar corona into space - is heading this way to hit Earth in Weather Action's predicted RED WEATHER WARNING & MAJOR Solar Weather Impact Period 18-19th April. There will be important weather effects.

First images* of the dramatic event by Astronomers of Castle Point Astronomy Club (near Southend, Essex) were viewed when Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction long-range forecasters spoke there on 14th April about Climate & Weather forecasting {*Images to be linked soon}

Piers Corbyn said on 14 April: "This is an important solar event and very significantly the flank of this CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) is predicted by the USA NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre to hit Earth on 18th April

- http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

- VISIT for solar images and chart record such as below for X ray surges from the event 13th April :

See http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=5546 for data graph for that period

"We knew there would be significant events on the Sun to drive our 18-19th April Major SWIP & Red Weather Warning period and near-timed events. This is it.

Consequent WeatherAction Extreme events for 18-19th Red Warning period and related preceding days are:

BRITAIN IRELAND EUROPE & MED (issued 17 March)

* Strong winds Hail Sleet & snow showers Scotland North Ireland & N England (forecast issue 17 March) for espec 18-19 April. This event will be more extreme - & the cold plunge more intense - than the UK MetOffice so far predicted.

* Denmark & South Norway heavy** rain espec, originally for later part of 12-17th but now likely to extend into 18/19th (fc issue 17 Mar) (**nb original forecast of 17 March was for mod/heavy)

* Major thunderstorms hail & local floods S/SE Europe esp N Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, SE Germany. (fc issue 17 Mar)

USA (issued April 4th):

April 12-17 - EA esp ~ 16th (B = 75% confidence period)

● Build up to heatwave South USA.
● Severe thunderstorms, hail & tornadoes, MidWest and South USA (espec ~16th).

April 18-20 - Major SWIP 18-19th (BC = 70% confidence period)

● Major Mississippi Floods (from deluges in this & previous periods)

TROPICAL STORMS (issue 4 April)

April 16-17th - EA (B = 75% confidence period)

● West North Tropical PACIFIC TD/TS Formation to East of Philippines.
Land effect unlikely (NB This might only be TD level).

● SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TD/TS/TC Formation between Madagascar & Australia. Land effect unlikely.

● CORAL SEA / off Queensland TS/TC Formation prob heading South towards New Zealand. Storm & Deluges North Island of New Zealand likely.

April 18-20th - Major SWIP 18-19th (BC = 70% confidence period) (issue 4 April)

● Bay of Bengal /Andaman Sea off Burma. Storm & Deluges BURMA HIT likely.

● BANGLA DESH TORNADO likely in same period.

The major cyclone (link*) which hit West Bengal on 13/14 April is related to these forecasts in that we at WeatherAction correctly predicted the conditions but further events are also likely in 18/19th.

* http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100414/twl-89-dead-as-cyclone-sweeps-through-in-3fd0ae9.html

The Full Extreme Events Forecasts for the period 5th April to 3rd May are available on:

http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp

● Extreme Events Europe and Med button

● Extreme Events rest of World button for forecasts covering in this period:

USA & Canada;

West North Pacific;
North Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal & Bangla-Desh/ Burma region;

South Indian Ocean and Coral Sea;

Azerbajan;

Israel;

Antarctica.


Comments submitted - 5	Add your comment
On 03 Dec 2011, Rochi wrote: Life is short, and this article saved vlauable time on this Earth. On 14 May 2010, Piers Corbyn wrote: Joy, Yes of course. Forecasts go wrong about 15% of the time for extreme events and reasonably well defined weather scenario statements in time windows of a few days from many months ahead. This is against a chance level of success of ranging from 30% to 1%, but typically about 15%. See Forecast Accuracy button on Home page. Thanks On 06 May 2010, Joy wrote: Piers - a simple question from me... Have you ever been wrong? On 02 May 2010, Piers Corbyn wrote: Russ, Thanks. First nb we did NOT say the warm last week of April would extend into May. Our Election summary forecast posted on the day Gordon Brown called the election (see my Comments post) said: "....The first few days of May will be hit by deluges of rain hail and thunder in many parts with dramatic extreme events world-wide* around 2nd and 3rd May and then..." On contrails you suggest that it was sunnier (& so days warmer) than it otherwise would have been when the flight ban was in force from 15-20th April and then cooler when it was lifted. Interestingly 1) It is TRUE 15-20th was MUCH SUNNIER & drier than our long range forecast (& perhaps also warmer but nights were cold). 2) Although the warmth & sunshine we expected from 24th was confirmed it is TRUE it was LESS than we expected (ie warm rather than hot). This DOES help your case but note a) Deviations may have been our errors. b) Check, did standard Met 5 day ahead forecasts also underestimate sun 15-20th? On 01 May 2010, Russ Taylor wrote: Its the 1st of May today and it looks as though the very warm period Piers forecast has come and gone already, but, those of us who watch the accumulation of contrails with some consternation will have noticed how, after the ash cloud flight ban was ended, within 48hrs the skies were quickly caked with thick contrails, and have been every day since. The amount of haze and cloud this created has, I have noted, dropped temperatures sharply and thwarted Piers accuracy of the warm period stretching into the first days of May. The Met says cooler but we all know how ludicrously wrong their forecasts are so it could turn out very warm yet. We could do with a flight ban every month so we could all get some blue skies and hot sun and vitamin D...!