Comments from Piers
Extreme Events rest of World button for forecasts covering in this period:
USA & Canada;
West North Pacific;
South Indian Ocean and Coral Sea;
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On 03 Dec 2011, Rochi wrote:
Life is short, and this article saved vlauable time on this Earth.
On 14 May 2010, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Joy, Yes of course. Forecasts go wrong about 15% of the time for extreme events and reasonably well defined weather scenario statements in time windows of a few days from many months ahead. This is against a chance level of success of ranging from 30% to 1%, but typically about 15%. See Forecast Accuracy button on Home page. Thanks
On 06 May 2010, Joy wrote:
Piers - a simple question from me... Have you ever been wrong?
On 02 May 2010, Piers Corbyn wrote:
Russ, Thanks. First nb we did NOT say the warm last week of April would extend into May. Our Election summary forecast posted on the day Gordon Brown called the election (see my Comments post) said: "....The first few days of May will be hit by deluges of rain hail and thunder in many parts with dramatic extreme events world-wide* around 2nd and 3rd May and then..." On contrails you suggest that it was sunnier (& so days warmer) than it otherwise would have been when the flight ban was in force from 15-20th April and then cooler when it was lifted. Interestingly 1) It is TRUE 15-20th was MUCH SUNNIER & drier than our long range forecast (& perhaps also warmer but nights were cold). 2) Although the warmth & sunshine we expected from 24th was confirmed it is TRUE it was LESS than we expected (ie warm rather than hot). This DOES help your case but note a) Deviations may have been our errors. b) Check, did standard Met 5 day ahead forecasts also underestimate sun 15-20th?
On 01 May 2010, Russ Taylor wrote:
Its the 1st of May today and it looks as though the very warm period Piers forecast has come and gone already, but, those of us who watch the accumulation of contrails with some consternation will have noticed how, after the ash cloud flight ban was ended, within 48hrs the skies were quickly caked with thick contrails, and have been every day since. The amount of haze and cloud this created has, I have noted, dropped temperatures sharply and thwarted Piers accuracy of the warm period stretching into the first days of May. The Met says cooler but we all know how ludicrously wrong their forecasts are so it could turn out very warm yet. We could do with a flight ban every month so we could all get some blue skies and hot sun and vitamin D...!